final transcript - transalta homepage · final transcript march 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. e.t....
TRANSCRIPT
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
TransAlta Corporation
Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results Conference Call
Event Date/Time: March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
Length: 65 minutes
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2
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS Sally Taylor TransAlta Corporation — Manager, Investor Relations Dawn Farrell TransAlta Corporation — President and Chief Executive Officer Donald Tremblay TransAlta Corporation — Chief Financial Officer John Kousinioris TransAlta Corporation — Chief Legal and Compliance Officer CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS Rob Hope Scotiabank — Analyst Mark Jarvi CIBC — Analyst Ben Pham BMO Capital Markets — Analyst Andrew Kuske Credit Suisse — Analyst Robert Kwan RBC Capital Markets — Analyst Patrick Kenny National Bank Financial — Analyst Jeremy Rosenfield Industrial Alliance Securities — Analyst
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"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Charles Fishman Morningstar Research — Journalist Chris Varcoe Calgary Herald — Journalist
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
PRESENTATION
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the TransAlta
Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on
mute to prevent any background noise.
After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like
to ask a question during this time, simply press *, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If
you would like to withdraw your question, press the # key. If you have any difficulties hearing the
conference, please press *, then 0 for Operator assistance at any time.
As a reminder, this conference call is being broadcast live on the internet and recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference call over to Sally Taylor, Manager of Investor
Relations. Please go ahead Miss Taylor.
Sally Taylor — Manager, Investor Relations, TransAlta Corporation
Thank you, Jamie (phon). Good morning, everyone, and welcome to TransAlta’s fourth
quarter and year-end 2017 conference call. With me today are Dawn Farrell, President and Chief
Executive Officer; Donald Tremblay, Chief Financial Officer; John Kousinioris, Chief Legal and
Compliance Officer; and Brent Ward, Managing Director and Treasurer.
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"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Today’s call is webcast, and I invite those listening on the phone lines to view the supporting
slides which are available on our website. A replay of the call will be available later today, and a
transcript will be posted to our website shortly thereafter.
As usual, all information provided during this conference call is subject to the forward-
looking statement qualification which is set out on Slide 2, detailed in our MD&A, and incorporated
in full for the purposes of today’s call.
All amounts referenced during the call are in Canadian currency, unless otherwise stated.
The non-IFRS terminology used, including gross margin, comparable EBITDA, funds from
operation, and free cash flow are reconciled in the MD&A for your reference.
On today’s call, Dawn and Donald are going to review our results for 2017 and TransAlta’s
2018 goals. After these prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions.
With that, let me turn the call over to Dawn.
Dawn Farrell — President and Chief Executive Officer, TransAlta Corporation
Thanks, Sally, and welcome, everyone. It’s great to be here today to report that we finished
2017 stronger than expected, and that we have a very interesting and exciting year ahead of us.
Let me start by thanking our employees, who accomplished a lot in 2017. They did an
excellent job, and it’s a real honour to work with all of them.
Our performance significantly advanced our goal to deliver 100 percent clean power by
2025. In 2017, we focused on five goals that would strengthen our financial position and our ability
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6
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
to transform the Company. We delivered on these goals, and are ready to communicate new goals
for 2018.
We were very clear in December at our Investor Day on where we’re taking this company.
And we’ll continue to report on these themes as we move throughout the year. What’s important is
that TransAlta’s financial and operational performance on the existing fleet is now aligning with our
ambitions, and we’re feeling very strong as we enter into 2018.
Today, I’m going to give you our assessment of how we did against our 2017 goals, and I’ll
set the framework for 2018.
So starting with our 2017 goals. Last year at this time, I laid out five clear goals for the
organization. The first was to get our framework in place from transitioning from coal to gas; the
second was around commissioning our South Hedland power station in Australia; the third was to
grow our renewables platform; the fourth was to continue to execute our financial strategy; and the
fifth was all about leading in safety and environmental performance as we delivered our financial
results.
So I’m going to start this morning with our fourth goal that we set in 2017, as I believe that
this goal has been high on the minds of many of our long-term shareholders. So in short, the fourth
goal last year was to strengthen our balance sheet. And I’m really happy to report today that we
ended the year in better shape than we anticipated.
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"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Now first, that’s because we delivered stronger financial results in the Company over 2016.
And second because we did have an unexpected return of the Solomon plant, which gave us cash to
apply to debt, and it absolutely accelerated our deleveraging process.
Now in terms of financial performance, you’ve all seen the reports in the MD&A, but I would
just like to say a congratulations to the Company. They delivered free cash flow of $328 million, an
increase of 71 million over 2016 and a 28 percent improvement.
They delivered funds from operations of 804 million, 9.5 percent better than 2016. Our
EBITDA from generation, excluding our Canadian Coal segment, was up 13 percent year over year,
and this is tremendous. All of the businesses improved their results.
Our Canadian Coal segment was expected as we went into 2017 to have lower EBITDA due
to rising mining costs. And the good news is they were able to recover from the challenges of the
summer, which really helps us deliver a strong year.
Based on our 2017 results and what we’re expecting for 2018, we are now in the final innings
of our debt repayment program. And we have a very solid plan, which Donald is going to talk about,
to manage the scheduled maturities over the next two years.
In 2020, when the remaining Alberta PPAs roll off, we will be down to 1.1 billion in recourse
debt. That’s going to be a tremendous result. And that is absolutely the right level of debt for our
emergent coal and hydro assets, and it will give us a balance sheet that can weather any storm.
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"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Donald will give you more insight on how we’ll exit 2018, but I can tell you that it feels great
to be here entering 2018 with less than 3.4 billion in debt on the balance sheet and an FFO-to-debt
metric of over 20 percent, the best that we’ve had since 2011.
So let me go back to our first goal of 2017, which was all about transitioning from coal to
gas and setting up that framework. Now there’s a lot of elements to this goal, but I’ll talk about each
of them briefly.
So first of all in 2017, the team here at TransAlta advanced the game significantly by gaining
the legislative framework, both federally and provincially, that allows us to use gas in our boilers.
Their efforts have us adding 75 years of combined life to our coal facilities, and will add more than $1
billion of free cash flow. So congratulations to that team. That’s an outstanding result.
We signed an LOI with Tidewater as well, and that gets natural gas to our facilities much
more quickly than we could have ever anticipated. And it allows us to accelerate our conversion time
frame by a year. So that’s an excellent result as well.
We did gain full credit for our existing renewable assets in Alberta under the carbon regime
so that over time our existing wind and hydro assets will be able to sell carbon credits into the Alberta
market. Now depending on the price of carbon, these credits are worth somewhere between 30
million and $50 million, and they absolutely help us recover some of the lost value that occurred with
the coal fleet due to the implementation of the Climate Leadership Plan here in Alberta.
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"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
So we think this was a very fair decision by the Alberta government, and it ensures that
Alberta can transition to a low-carbon future without undue damage to companies like ourselves that
need time to adjust to the new reality. So that was also an excellent result by the team.
We also have been advancing our discussion on the Brazeau pump storage project. Today,
we’re in extensive dialogue with the AESO on the role of dispatchable renewables and storage over
the longer term as Alberta transitions off coal.
And then finally under this one goal—this is still our first goal—we’ve been working hard to
ensure that the capacity market that’s emerging will create stable and low prices for consumers and
stable revenues for our assets.
Now there’s a lot more, as you all know, to do on this in 2018, and I’ll talk about our goal for
this at the end of the call.
So all in all when I look at the performance of the team, I give people very, very high marks
for the progress that we’ve made on our transition.
Our second goal last year was very simple. It was simply to get the South Hedland power
station built and delivering new cash flow to TransAlta Renewables, which of course we’re a 64
percent owner.
The plant is high quality. It’s running extremely well. It’s met all the conditions required to
commission and sync to the grid. Now it was absolutely disappointing to end up in a dispute with
Fortescue. This dispute will delay the start of about 30 percent of the cash flows; however, the plant
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10
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
is profitable, it’s the lowest-cost plant in the region, and it’s serving Horizon Power and there are
other customers.
So while we aren’t 100 percent of the way over the line on achieving our goal, we will give
ourselves some credit for what we did there in 2017. And we have to drive to close the gap in the
cash flows in the 2018 and ‘19 goal.
Our third goal last year was to win an RFP in the locations where we have assets. We didn’t
win in Alberta, but we have assets available to bid in the next auction or to sell to end customers. In
February, however, this year we announced that we won two wind farms in the US Northeast. The
returns on these farms are better than what we would have received in Alberta for the equivalent
capital, so we are very, very happy to have waited and been patient.
So overall, I give the team high marks for remaining disciplined and achieving our goal, even
if it meant delivering the goal in early 2018 instead of in 2017.
Our final goal in 2017 was to lead in safety and environmental performance while delivering
against our financial targets. We delivered the Company’s best ever safety performance with a total
incident frequency of 0.72, and we reduced our greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 800,000
tonnes year over year.
I’ve already talked about our financial progress, which I’m pretty pleased about. And many
of you that look at our MD&A, it’s an integrated MD&A with financial and sustainability results, and
it gives you a very comprehensive view of all the things that we do on both fronts.
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11
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
So 2017 accomplishments have set us up to be very bullish about ‘18 and ‘19. We did tell
you last year that we set a target, which we internally call the Road to 400 Million, which would have
been a lot easier if we hadn’t had to sell back the Solomon plant. But nevertheless, we’re a
determined team, and the work we’re doing through Project Greenlight and the work that we’re
doing as we transition the Company to gas has us striving for that outcome in any event. And I’ll talk
about our free cash flow goals at the end of the call.
We also feel that we’re getting closer to a time when we can look at other forms of capital
allocation, including how we think about the dividend as we transition to gas and renewables.
So in summary, 2017 was a great year and has us positioned for even greater success in
2018.
So I’m going to turn the call over to Donald, who will talk about the specific financial results,
and I’ll come back and review our goals for 2018 at the end of the call.
Donald Tremblay — Chief Financial Officer, TransAlta Corporation
Thank you, Dawn, and welcome to everyone on the call. As you can see on Slide 5, we
continue to make progress on the performance of the business.
Comparable EBITDA from our power generating asset, which excludes Energy Marketing and
corporate segment, increased 2 percent over last year for a total of 1.1 billion. The cash generated by
our operation increased 4 percent year over year. Over the last two years, we increased the cash
generation from our business by 100 million when including our corporate costs and our Energy
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12
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Marketing segment in a challenging VaR market. This is the result of our high level of contracted
generation and our steady focus on cost and sustaining capital expenditure reduction.
Free cash flow for the year totalled 328 million. This is an increase of 90 million, or 28
percent since 2015. Year over year, sustaining capital decreased 13 percent to 235 million, reflecting
the impact of our decision to shut down or mothball four units at Sundance. We expect to spend
between 195 million to 205 million in 2018.
The decision to mothball our Sundance unit was made after considering their operating and
sustaining capital costs, as well as the power price expectation for 2018 and 2019 and the low
utilization rate of those units.
In 2017, we allocated almost 25 million to productivity capital to support our Greenlight
initiative, up from less than 10 million in 2016. We expect to maintain this level of investment in 2018.
We also benefit from lower financing costs as we continue to reduce our debt, and expect this to
continue in 2018 and 2019.
Let’s move to our balance sheet and credit metrics. As you can see from Slide 6, we repaid
our 400 million bond during the second quarter of this year using existing liquidity.
At the end of the year, we still had access to 1.6 billion of liquidity between TransAlta and
TransAlta Renewables, of which 300—400 million was cash in TransAlta. With the Sundance PPA
termination proceeds expected in March, we made a decision to repay the US 500 million bond early
in March. The next corporate bond maturity, which is not due until late 2019, will be paid off using
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13
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
cash generated from the business and the expected proceeds from the financing of the off-coal
payment later this year.
Our FFO to debt was within our 20 to 25 percent target range at 20.4 for the first time since
2011. During the year, we reduced our debt by over 500 million from 3.9 billion to 3.4 billion, of which
2.6 billion is TransAlta Corp. debt and 800 million is debt held at TransAlta Renewables. For reference,
our debt at TransAlta Corp. at the end of 2015 was 3.6 billion. So we have reduced the debt for
TransAlta Corp. by almost 30 percent over the last two years.
We expect to further improve our FFO-to-debt metric through 2018, as we intend to reduce
debt at TransAlta Corp. by an additional 400 million during the year.
The construction of the two projects we recently acquired in the US will be fully funded by
TransAlta Renewables over the next two years, and will not affect the debt level at TransAlta Corp.
As you can see, we are making great progress to strengthen our capital structure and are
ahead of our plan to deliver FFO to debt at the high end of our 25 to 30 percent range in 2021 (sic)
[2020].
As outlined in our Investor Day presentation, our capital allocation plan for the next three
years is a continuation of what we have been doing for the last two. Underpinning this plan is our
ability to deliver at least 1.2 billion of free cash flow over the next three years, including approximately
215 million for the early termination of the Sundance PPA and between 275 million to 350 million of
free cash flow in 2018.
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14
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
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découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Given the recent performance of the business and forward price in Alberta, we are highly
confident in our ability to deliver at the upper end of that range in 2018. As a result, we will be seeking
approval from the TSX for a normal course issuer bid to buy back up to 14 million shares over the next
12 months.
Our intention is to use incremental cash flow generated by the business to reduce the
number of share outstanding, as we strongly believe our shares are undervalued. This will not impact
our debt reduction plan.
In 2015, we made a significant reduction of our dividend in anticipation of uncertainty
around our coal portfolio in Alberta. As we get more clarity on future market design and how it will
impact the profitability of our coal, hydro, and wind in the province, we will reconsider the level of
dividend we could sustain under all market outcomes.
Over the next three years, we are planning to allocate 300 million of free cash flow to
growing and transforming the business. This includes a potential investment in the gas pipeline that
will supply our coal facility with natural gas, improving the rework on the conversion of our coal facility
to gas. We believe our capital allocation for TransAlta is prudent for the time being.
Let’s now discuss our free cash flow target for the three years. As I mentioned earlier, our
plan relies on the business to deliver at least 1.2 billion of free cash flow over the next three years.
And we are highly confident in our ability to deliver that target.
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15
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
As highlighted at our Investor Day, our plan is grounded by our historical performance, the
high level of contracted revenue, and conservative assumption for pricing in Alberta. Since December,
we’ve seen forward price in Alberta increasing. However, prices are still nowhere near the average
price of $65 before carbon tax since deregulation in the Alberta market.
We also did a lot of work to better understand and model the flexibility and optionality in
our merchant coal asset to maximize their financial performance, and we are highly confident in our
ability to deliver improved performance through our Greenlight initiative. We expect our recurring
free cash flow in 2018 to be at the upper end of our 275 million to 350 million range which was shared
with you in December.
With the return of the Sundance PPA effective March 31st, we will find ourselves more
exposed to merchant power pricing in Alberta. This differs from our previous highly contracted
position in the province.
In late 2017, forward power price contracts for 2018/2019 were low, and we didn’t see the
benefit of hedging our generation. However, as prices moved up over the past few months, we are
taking risk off the table and have entered into fixed-price contracts for certain periods in 2018.
This merchant exposure is positive for TransAlta, and we expect to benefit from the
increased near-term price volatility. As we progress through the year and see where power prices
land, we expect to strategically layer in additional hedges to reduce our exposure and lock in value
for our shareholders.
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16
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
I will now pass the call over to Dawn to talk about 2018.
Dawn Farrell
Thanks, Donald. I’m going to step away from our performance now from last year, and let’s
start talking about 2018 and the future.
Again, I’ll reiterate our overall goal is to deliver 100 percent clean power to customers by
2025. Our customers want power at costs that help them compete, that are generated with minimal
environmental impact, and that come from a provider they’re proud of. We’re retooling our business
to supply customers with exactly what they want, and as well we’re supporting Alberta’s shift to a
capacity market.
So that leads to our first goal for 2018, which is to support the development of a capacity
market in Alberta that gives investors confidence to support our coal-to-gas investments in the
Alberta power market.
A capacity market that supports the Climate Leadership Plan creates the lowest cost for
energy, capacity, and ancillary services for consumers; creates stable pricing and stable revenues for
producers; and provides the right incentive structure for new investment in power is within reach.
The promise is to ensure a level playing field for capital, whether it is investing in an existing power
plant, like our coal-to-gas, or new, and we believe that that will be achieved once the final design is
in place. This is what will give our investors even greater confidence to support this strategy and to
support our investments in the Alberta market.
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17
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
This summer, we expect the AESO in Alberta to finalize the capacity market design, which
will take effect in 2021. The first draft of a design was published at the end of January for comments,
and we like others are getting our views into the AESO. We are confident by the time we get to the
final version the comprehensive market design will achieve its objectives, and will give us an
investment horizon for our assets.
Our second goal is about gas supply. By the end of the year, we expect to be in a position to
know when the first steel will be in the ground for the Tidewater pipeline. We want a clear view to
when we can start burning gas at the plant to reduce our greenhouse gas costs, and ultimately, to
convert our plant to gas.
Our third goal is to start the coal-to-gas conversions on at least two units. More specifically,
this means completing the engineering work and obtaining the required permits, as well as adjusting
the cost structure to align to a smaller and less complex operation.
Our fourth goal is about growth. Last week, TransAlta Renewables announced an
arrangement to acquire two wind projects in the US. These projects are right in TransAlta Renewables’
wheelhouse, and they’re supported by long-term contracts with highly creditworthy direct
customers. We’re focusing now on completing the purchase and building the plants on time and on
budget.
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18
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
As well this year if things go well, we could round out our year with another couple of
projects which will meet our investment criteria for TransAlta Renewables and generate value for our
shareholders.
We will continue to invest exploratory development funds in our Brazeau pump storage
project, and we’re also getting pretty excited about a future where we can supply more renewables
to any customers with strong credit ratings.
Our fifth goal is again about delivering financial, safety, and environmental results. Our
financial goal is to grow free cash flow in 2018 by 5 to 10 percent over our 2017 levels. We’ve also set
an internal goal to improve safety by 20 percent over 2017 levels. Growth in cash flow also includes
advancing strategies to bring additional revenues in Australia to the South Hedland plant.
Our sixth goal is to exit the year with 3.2 billion in debt for the existing assets and with an
FFO-to-debt ratio north of 22 percent.
And our final and most important goal is all about our people and our culture. Now let me
take a pause here. Most of the time, we find that investors aren’t all that interested in our people
strategies, but today I believe that investors that don’t pay attention to how management teams
invest in people will wake up one day and find out that their investments are not sustainable over the
longer term.
As we transition this company to gas, we need fewer people at our plants. As we look into
the future that is coming, we frankly need less people in our industry. It takes far fewer people to
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19
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
build and maintain wind and solar plants. But those people need to be even more technologically
savvy, flexible, and adaptable than the past. Our front, mid, and back offices need to adapt to systems
and processes that will tie together a more distributed asset base in markets that have ever-changing
and evolving rules.
So as we move towards 2025, our goals are to increase our use of technologies, and to
develop our people to adjust to the new realities of a much more distributed marketplace. And for
those people that leave TransAlta as our investments change, our Greenlight transformation is
designed to ensure they have sought-after skills and qualities.
So in closing, let me make it simple. Everything that we’re going to do in 2018 will move us
one year closer to 100 percent clean power by 2025.
So in summary, we’re moving ahead with our coal-to-gas conversion so we can supply low-
cost capacity to back up renewables as the Alberta market transitions away from carbon. We’re
securing new gas supply for the plant as soon as we can get it there. We’ll continue to grow our
renewables platform, which is the future for our industry.
We will continue to execute our financial strategy and increase our financial flexibility so we
have more options when it comes to capital allocation. We will lead in safety and environmental
performance. And finally, we will support our people through the transition so that we have a strong
and vibrant culture regardless of what changes are on the horizon.
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20
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Last year was a pivotal year in our journey, and we created the momentum we need for our
success in 2018 as we become the provider of choice for clean, low-cost, reliable, and firm power.
Lots accomplished and lots to accomplish, and I’m very confident in our ability to succeed.
So with that, I’m going to turn it back over to Sally for questions.
Sally Taylor
Thank you, Dawn. Jamie, could you please open up the call for questions from the analysts
and media?
Q&A
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct the analyst question-and-answer session. If you
would like to ask a question, press *, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like
to withdraw your question, press the # key. There will be a brief pause while we compile the Q&A
roster.
Your first question comes from Rob Hope with Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Rob Hope — Scotiabank
Good morning, everyone. Maybe to start off on the 2021 outlook that you presented at your
recent Investor Day, does how the CMD has presented the capacity market align with what your
expectations were, including high availability of your hydro units to be bid into the capacity market?
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21
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
John Kousinioris — Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, TransAlta Corporation
It’s John Kousinioris speaking. In general I think the answer is yes, it is. There’s a lot more
work to do on the capacity market, but I think when we did the presentation in December, we talked
about a number of changes that would occur to support, for example, our hydro fleet, including the
eventual expiry of the PPA that we have in place with the Balancing Pool, which will result in a
significant uplift. I think right now a bit over 60 percent, sometimes as high as 80 percent of the
revenue effectively generated from the hydro fleet goes to the Balancing Pool.
But to answer your question, yes, we are seeing it track in the right direction. And just to
give you a sense, some of the sort of capacity value that we’re seeing attributed to our hydro fleet
are in excess of 80 percent. So we’re pretty pleased where that’s going generally.
Rob Hope
All right. That is good to hear. And then just in terms of capital allocation and the NCIB that
you are looking to install, is the idea to put kind of maybe excess capital that you’re earning in 2018
into the NCIB? And then I guess more broadly, how do you view the return on buying back your own
shares versus investing in late-stage development renewable projects?
Donald Tremblay
So yes, the idea is to take incremental cash that we don’t—like we have like a target on our
debt, and every cash that we don’t need to basically like to achieve that target we’ll use to buy back
share. And in terms—like clearly over time we’ll make the decision based on the opportunities that
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22
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
are in front of us. But generally, the growth will be in TransAlta Renewables and at returns that may
not be necessarily attractive for TransAlta shareholders, but that determination will be made in due
course.
But currently our view is it’s better to buy back our shares at current value because we
believe—we had a discussion at the Investor Day on the value of our shares, and we really believe
that they’re undervalued; that the market doesn’t reflect the value of the coal assets that we own
that we’ll convert to gas. And we really want to capitalize on this.
Rob Hope
All right. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Mark Jarvi with CIBC. Your line is open.
Mark Jarvi — CIBC
Good morning. I just wanted to clarify in terms of your comments around excess free cash
flow to use in the NCIB, when you think about those projects, the US wind projects and you might
have to up front fund some of the capital that tax equity partners might have actually supplied, do
you include that? Or do you just put that on a construction loan or credit facility and free up more
cash for the buyback?
Donald Tremblay
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23
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
So the way we look at this it will be like using our credit facility to fund the construction. At
some point, there will be tax equity that will come in, and potentially at some point—like that’s
TransAlta Renewables—we’ll look at like how much cash is sitting in front of Renewables based on
their performance that they will achieve this year, other transactions in front of them, and potentially
at some point raise equity in TransAlta Renewables, if need be.
But we haven’t made that decision. We’ll see as we go other opportunities (phon) in front
of us.
Mark Jarvi
So when you think about the spend at the wind facility out east, Kent Hills, and then also
your component of the equity for this, how much growth equity would you consider for 2018, just so
we can back into how much sort of excess free cash flow you have for the buyback?
Donald Tremblay
So what we have on a constant basis, we have 300 million that we allocate to growth over
the next three years. Some of that will go to the pipeline if we decide to go ahead with the pipeline.
Mark Jarvi
Okay. And then maybe my last question is on the US wind projects. If you go back a few
quarters ago you guys commented about how competitive it was and prices were being a bit up, and
returns were going lower. What was it about this opportunity, which I understand was sort of a
competitive process, allowed you guys to find the right returns to secure those projects?
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24
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Dawn Farrell
Yeah. I mean, I think as you know the market for wind is very competitive. I mean, you have
to find a way to get an edge on every slice of the project, whether it’s the turbines, the wind farms,
the locations, the cost of capital. And it’s a game of seeing if you can add a little bit of margin here,
there, and everywhere. And as we’ve said to you, we remain very disciplined. So we bid a lot. Like
we’re—and we expect to lose a lot, and we don’t mind that. So we’ve got the machine set up to do
that.
And in this particular case, the team when they got in to look at these wind farms were able
to add some significant value, both in terms of making sure we got the right prices for the equipment,
but as well on the construction side. And that enabled us, I think, to be the winner and get the returns
that we need to be confident about how we’re growing TransAlta Renewables.
So like I say, you’ll see us in the market a lot; you’ll see us losing a lot. And you should be
happy about that as investors because when you see us win, then you can be confident that we got
the returns that we’re looking for.
Mark Jarvi
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Ben Pham with BMO. Your line is open.
Ben Pham — BMO Capital Markets
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25
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Hi. Thanks. Some of the questions were on growth versus buybacks. How does dividend
increases fit into that mix in terms of your priorities?
Dawn Farrell
Yeah. I mean, Ben, as we come around the corner here and finish off our debt program, and
Donald told you the great progress we’ve made in the last two years, I mean we’ve reduced debt at
TransAlta by about 1 billion and we’re doing another 800 million, as we go forward you’re going to
end up with very little recourse debt left at TransAlta.
So as we think about the TransAlta cash flows, those cash flows will come from the existing
hydro that’s in there, which we’ve given you our views on what will happen to that hydro. And we’ve
got some other assets inside TransAlta, and then of course we’ve got our share of TransAlta
Renewables.
So as we think about, first of all, as we think about where we are today as we get closer to
a date where all that … where cash flow starts to not have to pay down debt—which we’re getting
very close on that—then we’ve got to say, okay, how does the cash coming into TransAlta get
reinvested in either growth or share buyback or dividend?
Currently, we started this NCIB because we—and we showed you this at Investment Day
and Donald already said it—our overriding concern is that people are not valuing the cash flows in a
big part of the Company. We think they trade TransAlta as if it’s only TransAlta Renewables. It’s 64
percent, and that’s completely ridiculous.
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26
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
So right now in terms of capital allocation, it’s relative to thinking about share buyback. But
as we get into that 2020 period, depending on whether we have to have growth projects that fit with
the TransAlta shareholders, and then we’ll compare dividend increases against what the potential
growth opportunities for TransAlta are at that time because we do see the growth in TransAlta being
a different kind of asset than growth in TransAlta Renewables.
So as we clear off this debt, it’s still our number one priority. We’re not walking away from
that. Donald said that we’d be at that 25 to 30 percent range, and I think he said 2021, but he meant
to say 2020. So in 2020, we are well within the range of a very, very strong balance sheet for going
into that capacity market.
And it’s at that we’re starting to look ahead and say, okay, what does that mean for
dividends? And we see dividends as something that we might potentially be able to start to grow
again.
Ben Pham
Okay. And then can I ask on RNW and really how you’re thinking about that more from a
longer-term perspective how it fits with the TA side of things? And really if you’ve really reduced debt
at the TA level utilizing RNW the last few years and pre-launch for say environments you’ve been
servicing some growth. But as you look forward and rates are increasing and you’ve seen more
recently RNW indirectly impacting your own stock negatively, does that play a role in just how you
think about ownership levels at RNW and how you think about using that vehicle longer term?
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27
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Dawn Farrell
Yeah. I mean, I think we can always flex our ownership up and down with RNW if we think
that it’s better to do that from a value perspective for TransAlta. But I would say, Ben, kind of overall
as rates go up, it does affect people’s view of the existing cash flows, and that’s just the way it works,
right? That’s what a yieldco does. But the good news is—and remember, we’ve been in the utility
business as well for a long time—the good news is is as we do the incremental projects, the
incremental projects are being financed with project debt, and we’re pretty disciplined about making
sure that those returns reflect those new costs of capital. So if debt costs go up, the new prices on
the new renewables will have to reflect that.
And so as you put in incremental projects, they should be at the right returns for that vehicle.
And then over time if interest rates drop then, of course, you’ll see kind of an up and down reflection
of that in the vehicle.
In terms of how I see it for TransAlta, I think it’s absolutely strategic for TransAlta. It is a
different mix of assets and investments. I can tell you that it absolutely 100 percent supports our
credit rating. So if you look at being a Canadian company, as you know, in Canada investment-grade
balance sheets are more important than they would be in the United States. So when you look at
having that mix of long-term contracted assets in our mix, anybody who understands our business
knows that that mix supports the credit rating. So that’s a really good thing for TransAlta shareholders
because cost of capital overall is important.
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28
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
And as well, I personally believe that 95 percent of the growth in the next 10 years is going
to be in renewables, not in anything else. And so I think it’s a strategic vehicle. We’ll grow it. I think it
will be important as a piece of value for TransAlta, both in terms of the credit rating, but also in terms
of those stable cash flows because everybody thinks they want these volatile cash flows until they get
them. And we just went through that cycle.
So having these stable cash flows from TransAlta has been really, really important as we’ve
gotten through these last couple of years with low commodity prices. So we continue to believe that
both vehicles together work, and that continues to be our strategy.
Ben Pham
Okay. That’s helpful. Thanks, Dawn. Thanks, everybody.
Operator
Your next question comes from Andrew Kuske with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Andrew Kuske — Credit Suisse
Thank you. Good morning. Maybe just on Project Greenlight and just the progress there,
and I think in the disclosures you said 29 million of costs related to Project Greenlight through ‘17. Is
there a breakdown on capitalized versus expensed on that number? And then what are the
expectations in ‘18 on those fronts?
Donald Tremblay
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29
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Andrew, it’s all capital—it’s all expense. So there’s no capital cost in that. We have some
capital costs, but that will be part of our project activity capital that we have. And for like 2018 we
expect this to be in the range of, I would say, 15 million to 20 million; much lower because we did a
lot of the work in 2017.
Dawn Farrell
Yeah. So, Andrew, let me just put some colour on that. So the program that we’ve put in
place January 1, 2017, has kind of an 18-month time frame on it. And the significant investment costs
to get that program set up, get the teams on it, bring everybody up, get everybody on board, get 900
initiatives across the Company, get us all exercising in a completely different way than we did before.
Those costs were, as Donald said, in our P&L for 2017, and there’s a few more costs as we go to sort
of the end of April.
But the program itself in terms of continuing to create the project and continuing to reduce
costs, add value, all that stuff, it continues. It’s now a core part of the way we do business here. So
we’d expect to see additional run rate cash flow coming into our business here in 2018 as a result of
what we’re doing. And then we get the full year of it in 2019 because we have no program costs. Very
small. We have a small TO office that costs us less than a—kind of in that $1 million range a year,
which is insignificant for what we’re talking about with you guys. But that program becomes fully
operational without those start-up costs in 2019. So that’s just to tell you how it works.
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30
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
In terms of the success of the program, not only has it been successful in terms of running
the base business, but it’s a critical execution engine for how we do our transition. And it’s given us
all the execution capability of that. So that’s really important as we go through this transition that we
have that tool.
Andrew Kuske
So just as a follow-up, when you think about the capital allocation and things like share
buyback and just other alternative forms of capital return to shareholders, these types of initiatives
and cost reductions and really reposition the business tend to have the most bang for buck. But clearly
you did a lot of that in ‘17. You’re doing more of it in ‘18. And is that really the front end of allocation
to have a gift that keeps giving over a period of time and then pivot the culture before you really look
at share buybacks to a much larger degree?
Dawn Farrell
You know what? I’m not sure what you’re saying. Can you say that again?
Andrew Kuske
Yeah. I guess it’s really just a function of you do all the heavy lifting and establish the
foundation with Greenlight. And that sets you up very well to have the cash flows in the future to buy
back the shares—
Dawn Farrell
Right
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31
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Andrew Kuske
—if they should be distressed in price.
Dawn Farrell
Yeah. That’s absolutely right. Absolutely correct.
Andrew Kuske
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Robert Kwan with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Robert Kwan — RBC Capital Markets
Good morning. If I can come back to the NCIB, and Ambassador Giffin’s letter certainly talked
about using the NCIB when you see the shares as undervalued and you’ve had to come out on the call
that you strongly believe the shares are undervalued, so how should we expect the usage of the NCIB
over the course of the next year? Are you expecting to be out active regularly, whether it’s daily or
weekly? Or do you need to see, Donald, as you pointed out, your cash flow trending into the upper
end of the free cash flow range for this year before you take action?
Donald Tremblay
Yeah. So clearly what we’re seeking is the approval for up to 5 percent. What we said is we
think we will be opportunistic. So clearly we have our priority number one is achieving our target from
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32
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
a debt-reduction perspective. So that’s number one. And when we have clear visibility that where
basically we have more free cash, then we will be in the market in due course.
But it will be very opportunistic based on value of share and cash that we’re generating in
the business. But we will be prudent in the way that we’re using this, for sure, and basically update
you as we go.
Robert Kwan
Okay. So in some ways if the share price stays where it is, you probably need to be
reasonably into 2018 before you feel confident enough to execute on the NCIB?
Donald Tremblay
So clearly when we have good visibility on our 2018 number, we will be making the decision
at that time.
Robert Kwan
Okay. You highlighted the Solomon plant as being positive for your plan. And effectively
while you didn’t necessarily go down the road, it was effectively an asset sale. So given something like
that was viewed positively, are there any plans to proactively look to monetize assets, whether that’s
to fund the NCIB or fund growth?
Dawn Farrell
No.
Robert Kwan
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33
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Okay. Maybe I’ll just finish then. Dawn, your thoughts on power prices; first just do you have
some comments as to what you think about the forward curve? And as well, just interested in your
thoughts as to what we’ve seen here in the first quarter. On the upside we’ve seen a handful of hours
with some of that nice spiking into the several hundred dollars per megawatt hour, but we’ve also
seen a short period of time where prices were below coal’s marginal costs and coal units were still
running off-peak losses. So what do you think about the quarter? And what type of read-through can
the quarter provide for when you get the offer of control from some of the units back on April 1st?
Dawn Farrell
Yeah. I mean, the quarter I think is still mixed up with bidding that’s not all that rational. So
I’m not paying any attention to it. When I look ahead, what I do know is as we bring back on April 1st
when we are bidding our units into the market, we can only bid as economic rational agents. So we
cannot bid below our costs. We cannot run our units below our cost, ever. And we never will. So we
have to be absolutely economically rational.
And if you look at the cost of the Sundance Units 5 and 6 if they’re in the market, they’re
going to set a price that’s probably higher than what you’ve seen in the first quarter. How much
higher? Don’t know. But I do know that we don’t have a choice to make irrational, uneconomic
decisions in the operator market with those units.
Now when I look at—when we look ahead, I think when we originally were looking at our—
remember, our strategy was to consolidate gigawatt hours under two units rather than running five
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34
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
units uneconomically. And we had decided to close down Sundance Unit 1. So we really got 5 units at
that site now. And I think when we originally ran our models last year, we probably thought that those
two units would run maybe at lower capacity utilizations. And I think our forecast is starting to show
potentially higher capacity utilization.
But as you know, I’ve been in this market for a long time, so as I say to our team over and
over again, do not be confident about what’s going to happen tomorrow because you absolutely have
no idea because all sorts of things happen as you go through the—I remember I ran the trading
business in—or I did the commercial business in that sort of 2010, 2011, 2012 time frame. And we
would be at this part of the year, and everybody’d be saying prices are going to be this and that and
you get there, and they wouldn’t be any of that.
So I think it’s—Donald talked about our hedging strategy. I think as we go through the year,
we’ve given our team much more flexibility on hedging than what they had in the past. And as they
go through the year and we report back to you how that went, I think that’s really what you’ve got to
measure us against. And we’ll try to find a way to give you some measurements to see if we were
able to get—I mean, our challenge—we got to be there to produce when prices are high either on a
forward basis or in the month on a spot market basis. So we’re kind of going back to a time where we
used to do that. So we’ll be trying to find a way to give you some indicators on that.
So net-net, I think prices will be higher than the fourth quarter. How much higher? Don’t
know. And it’s because we have to bid as an economically rational agent.
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35
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Robert Kwan
Understood. And just on when you talk about bidding at or above your cost—and I apologize
if I misunderstood your previous statements—but I think previously you talked about your cost being
the fully loaded cost on the unit and not just the marginal cost of production. Is that correct?
Dawn Farrell
Well, I think we can—so at times we’ll bid at the marginal cost, including the cost of carbon
and including the cost of all the fuel and all the rest of it. And there may be times when we can bid at
a fully loaded cost. But if you are trying to model that—and you know sort of what the capital is, and
what the kinds of return expectations you’d need on merchant units—you can model it between
those two levels.
But we have to get—like we’re not going to bid just to break even, right? We’re just
wasting—the way I look at it, and it’s really, really simple unfortunately having operated these
machines, I’m not going to waste a megawatt hour to break even when I could use that megawatt
hour in the future at a profit because these older plants, and effectively they’re expensive to maintain
and I’m only going to dole those megawatt hours out into the market when there’s a margin on them.
Robert Kwan
Okay. That’s great. Thank you very much.
Operator
Your next question comes from Patrick Kenny with National Bank Financial. Your line is open.
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liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Patrick Kenny — National Bank Financial
Yeah. Good morning. Just on the Tidewater pipeline, I know you’re working on finalizing the
take-or-pay agreement at the moment, but can you also speak to your thoughts around how the
actual gas supply agreements might look with producers in terms of perhaps matching the 15-year
take-or-pay on the pipe with a similar duration supply agreement? And maybe what price for the gas
you think you’ll be able to lock in? Or are you just looking to take spot exposure for the AECO market?
Dawn Farrell
Yeah. So, Patrick, we’re just in the throes of doing that. So as you know, if you look—and
maybe on a future conference call we can have Brett come in and talk about how that’s going because
it’s pretty interesting how that all comes together. So the best thing about Tidewater is we think we
can get that gas there very, very quickly. And the other good thing is with the carbon pricing, the guys,
the engineers are designing everything so that when we do get the gas there, even if we haven’t done
the conversions, we can burn quite a bit of … we can burn up to 30 percent in our boilers. And that’ll
start to make an offset for greenhouse gas costs.
So net-net, we’re working like crazy to get it there. Now the guys that supply around the
facility and that will supply into that pipeline, we’re lining up discussions with all of those gas
suppliers. And frankly, the challenge you have in Alberta is if you look at the spot market price, it
tends to run this $1, $1.50 range, and if you look at the forward curve, they’re trying to get up to 2.50.
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37
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
So effectively, we’ll have a risk management strategy with that pipeline where we’ll have
kind of a range of we might layer in some contracts and have some spot, and then the traders will
trade around those positions as we get there. Now we haven’t quite decided what that looks like yet,
and the teams are working on that. I would say in general just based on the bearishness of gas in the
province, it’s going to be a higher percentage of spot to start with. I personally don’t think we’ll ever
end up in a 15-year contract with a fixed price, but we might end up—we might do some contracts
which I think would be more akin to what you see in other commodity markets where we’ll do volume
contracts with price resets, so things like that so that we can make sure we’ve got the volumes that
we need.
So all of that is really a work-in-progress and you all know Brett Gellner. He’s been working—
and Jennifer. Jennifer’s been working on the gas supply out of the trading group and Brett’s been
working with the pipeline guys, so maybe on a future call we can get a little more discussion on that.
Patrick Kenny
All right. That’s great—
Dawn Farrell
So it’s an open question. Yeah.
Patrick Kenny
Yeah. Thanks, Dawn. And then maybe just for Donald just to close the loop on the NCIB and
credit ratings, was there an update to the negative outlooks from S&P? Or did you have any
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38
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
discussions with S&P that gave you comfort that the negative outlook will be lifted even with
executing the NCIB?
Donald Tremblay
So the negative outlook is still there. We are having regular discussions with the rating
agency. What is important to them is that basically we keep the—our plan to deleverage is still intact
and the NCIB is not impacting this. And so that’s why that decision from their perspective doesn’t
matter because we have a plan and we’re executing on that plan and that’s what matters.
Dawn Farrell
Yeah. And I’d just like to—I mean, I know everybody thinks about the credit rating agencies
and we did have discussions with them, but I would like to just underline that it’s management’s plan,
not the credit rating agencies. So when Donald and I look at the sort of the volatility of cash flows that
can come around plants that don’t have 20-year PPAs anymore, that’s why we’re aiming at having
the recourse debt at 1.1 billion and the FFO to debt between 25 and 30.
The credit rating agencies will do what they’ll do. They have to assess the business risks.
From our perspective, that’s the right level of debt. And I’ve said this to a number of investors who
some investors would frankly like us to do more share buyback and less debt repayment. And I’m not
going to be the IPP that has 70 percent debt on volatile assets. We’re going to have 30 percent debt,
which is a simpler measure for me. Everybody else does these more complex measures. And so we’re
headed in that direction come hell or high water.
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39
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Patrick Kenny
Got it. Thank you very much.
Operator
Your next question comes from Jeremy Rosenfield with Industrial Alliance Securities. Your
line is open.
Jeremy Rosenfield — Industrial Alliance Securities
Thank you. Just a couple of follow-up questions. First on the gas supply into the converted
plants, I think you had mentioned that you would look for a second pipeline option. I’m just wondering
if that’s something you’re looking to lock up for 2018? Or that might take some longer time?
Dawn Farrell
Yeah. Well, first of all, there’s some really good leverage out of that first pipeline, so we’re
signing up for 130, but there’s an opportunity to take that up much higher if we want to. We are in
discussions with two other pipeline suppliers, and frankly it’ll be the cheapest guy who can get it there
the fastest that will win.
So right now there’s—I have to say the Tidewater guys they’re just so entrepreneurial and
they’re fast and they’re smart and they’re aggressive, and we really appreciate working with them
because that’s what we’re trying to do. So we’re hoping the other two pipeline companies get in the
same mode.
Jeremy Rosenfield
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40
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Okay. And I wanted to ask a couple other ones. Just on the Sundance PPA termination and
the payment, I’m wondering if you can provide any more detail on conversations or discussions or
negotiations that might have taken place with the Balancing Pool and where you are there?
John Kousinioris
Yeah. Jeremy, it’s John. We have had discussions with the Balancing Pool on trying to bridge
the gap between what we think the termination should be versus what they think the termination
payment should be. We haven’t been able to resolve that yet, candidly. We do expect to receive at
the end of—we’re in March now—at the end of the month kind of at a minimum the undisputed
amount of the payment, and then we’re considering what the next steps would be to be able to get
clarity on our position versus their position. So it’s something that we’ll get some clarity on over the
coming number of months.
Jeremy Rosenfield
Can you just let us know is there an arbitration process that’s specified in the contract? Or
do you have to potentially pursue other legal means?
John Kousinioris
Yeah. There is an arbitration process which is in the PPA to be able to get clarity around
these things. And there’s also avenues to be able to go to court to get clarity on things. So there are
a number of avenues that you can take if we can’t get a resolution of the matter.
Jeremy Rosenfield
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41
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Okay. That’s perfect. And then just a last question, on the comprehensive market design
there was some wording around the potential for a price cap for operators with certain market shares.
And I’m just wondering what’s your take of how that was proposed and how you’re reacting to that?
Dawn Farrell
We’re still trying to model that to really understand it because I mean, when you first look
at it at first glance it just means that all TransAlta’s units are dispatched and at the front end of the
curve because we’re limited to bidding below 0.5 times, whatever’s in that code (phon). So we’re just
really giving some thought to that in terms of, I mean, whether or not that’s the most efficient way
to do it.
Our overall concern, we want to make sure that when we’re finished here that the way in
which it all works—so first of all, we have no problem with being mitigated if people think we have
market power. But at the end of the day, that total design has to be the cheapest design for customers
because, as you know, we’re about low-cost, green, firm. And really this is the firm part of that
promise and the low cost part of that promise. So it’s making sure in the modelling that the design
also leads to low cost.
So there may be other ways to mitigate TransAlta if we have too much market share that
actually continue to make sure that consumers get the low cost in the province.
Jeremy Rosenfield
Okay. I’ll leave it there. Thanks.
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42
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Operator
Your next question—
Dawn Farrell
More to come on that. I think when we get—just so you’re clear, when we get the second
… we’ll have enough work done by the time they come out with that second comprehensive market
design—it comes out at the end of April—and probably on our May conference call just we’ll have
seen how the input to the AESO has changed their view and what that second design looks like. And
we’ll have enough modelling done, I think, to be able to just provide a lot more clarity on how we
think that impacts us because at this point, depending on how you read those rules and depending
on how you do the modelling, I’m not sure that it’s exactly achieving everything everybody’s looking
for.
Jeremy Rosenfield
Yeah. I mean, just to respond to that, I think what I was looking for was something along the
lines of do you think that you can use some of the mitigating measures that had been proposed
initially in terms of how you bid in some of your plants to avoid that price cap? But I think I understand
that there’s probably a lot of work that needs to be done.
Dawn Farrell
I don’t think so.
John Kousinioris
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43
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Yeah.
Dawn Farrell
No, I don’t think so.
John Kousinioris
Jeremy, it’s John.
Dawn Farrell
Yeah. Yeah.
John Kousinioris
I don’t think that that is something—we’re not actually looking at that, to be honest.
Dawn Farrell
Yeah.
John Kousinioris
I think it’s a work-in-progress. We continue to be engaged with the AESO as it develops. And
as Dawn said, we’re trying to model out what the implications are. But we’re not looking at spending
a lot of time looking at various sort of unique bidding strategies for the—
Dawn Farrell
Yeah. Yeah. That’s not even a—the big thing, remember, about that whole capacity design
is this net CONE concept. And believe me, the guys keep working with me and I keep looking at them,
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44
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
découlant directement, indirectement, accidentellement ou corrélativement à l’utilisation de ce texte ou toute erreur qu’il contiendrait. »
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
and my eyes roll in the back of my head. But as best as I can get it, it’s the trade-off between energy
and capacity. So—
Jeremy Rosenfield
Mm-hmm.
Dawn Farrell
And it’s the net CONE concept, so it’s net between the two. So you’re kind of moving money
around between the capacity market and the energy market. If you get it wrong, consumers pay a
tonne of money because they end up paying $10 more on every unit of energy, and they end up with
a slightly lower capacity price. If you get it right, you get the right price in the energy market and the
right price in the capacity market so that consumers have the lowest bill, and that’s really where the
balancing act comes in.
And we, TransAlta, provide a complication to how they do that because of this market
situation we have.
Jeremy Rosenfield
Mm-hmm.
Dawn Farrell
So our teams are thinking about just how do we bring some positive proposals forward
because we want to make sure that at the end of the day consumers get the right pricing, energy plus
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45
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
capacity and the right cost for ancillary services because net-net, Alberta will only be strong if they
get the lowest overall power bill. And that’s where we’re trying to take it.
Jeremy Rosenfield
Yup. I think I get it. Okay. Thanks.
Operator
Your next question comes from Charles Fishman with Morningstar Research. Your line is
open.
Charles Fishman — Morningstar Research
Dawn, I just have one question left. This isn’t the first time that we’ve heard you talk about
the competitiveness of the US market as far as acquiring wind or renewable assets. Would you say
now that the US tax reform is set—certainly there’s been an observation in the US market that these
projects might be less desirable to US investors—does that help you from a competitive standpoint?
Or does it just not even move the needle?
Dawn Farrell
Well, I think as I say, these things ebb and flow. And people, I think, get overly focused on
what’s happening in the moment. What I tend to look at is how do you—just my accountability for
this company is to position it thinking ten years ahead and making sure that whatever we’re doing
today gets it to where it needs to go.
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46
"Though CNW Group has used commercially reasonable efforts to produce this transcript, it does not represent or warrant that this transcript
is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
So I would say yes, we’re in a period where people have—and they do this. They overbid the
assets and they reduced the returns. And then they all get tired of it and they go away and go
somewhere else. And I think it is a good time for them all to go away and go do something else
because—and as long as we can get returns that we like at this time with those kinds of projects, over
the long term those will end up being really strong projects for this company.
So I think as investors in the US move on to other things, especially if the US economy’s
getting frosty in other areas, it does give us an opportunity. And maybe that’s a little bit behind what
we saw with those plants in the northeast.
Charles Fishman
Okay. Thanks. That’s an interesting observation from a Canadian. Thank you.
Operator
This concludes the analyst Q&A portion of today’s call. We will now take questions from
members of the media. As a reminder, please press *, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad
to ask a question.
And your first question comes from Chris Varcoe with Calgary Herald. Your line is open.
Chris Varcoe — Calgary Herald
Hi, Dawn. I have just a couple of questions. I’m wondering if you can tell me how much work
you’ve done so far on the Brazeau pump station? And what work will you be doing on it in 2018?
Dawn Farrell
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47
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is error-free. CNW Group will not be responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, loss of profits or other damages or
liabilities which may arise out of or result from any use made of this transcript or any error contained therein."
« Bien que CNW Telbec ait fait tous les efforts possibles pour produire cet audioscript, la société ne peut affirmer ou garantir qu’il ne
contient aucune erreur. CNW Telbec ne peut être tenue responsable de pertes ou profits, responsabilités ou dommages causés par ou
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
Well, we’ve done quite a bit of work so far. I mean, we’ve done some preliminary
engineering. We’ve engaged with the First Nations. We’ve done quite a bit of regulatory work to think
about what the regulatory file would look like on it.
Now I must say the Canadian government’s just announced a new way of thinking about big
projects, so we’re just in the process of figuring out what that means for the project. We’ve also done
a lot of work with all the political parties here in Alberta to get support on a nonpartisan basis, and
make sure that as the project advances that it would have support in the province. We’d just gotten
a tremendously positive response from everybody.
So right now we’re doing the work with the AESO. And of course, the AESO it’s challenging
because they’re trying to stand up a capacity market and at the same time they have to be thinking
about what does it look like over the longer term because, remember, our coal-to-gas asset by law
has to come out of the system by 2039, which is quite a lot of megawatt that come off. And so we see
that project as a long-term project for Alberta because it’s basically going to provide a lot of storage
to the renewables that are coming on. So so far we’ve done quite a bit of work on it.
This year is the big turning point, though. Until there’s actually a call for either storage or
dispatchable renewables and we can qualify in that call and we can really advance some sort of long-
term contract, we can’t really do all that much more. So we’ve got it a bit on hold as we work through
the regulatory arena this year, but we’re really hopeful that somewhere in this year there’ll be a call
and we’ll be able to bid it.
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2018 — 11:00 a.m. E.T.
TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results
Conference Call
So great project, got lots of support, and hopefully there’ll be a way to get a contract.
Operator
And, Ms. Taylor, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue.
Sally Taylor
Thank you, everyone. That concludes our call for today. If you have any further questions,
please don’t hesitate to reach out to the investor relations team.
Donald Tremblay
Thank you.
Operator
And, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the call for today. Thank you for participating.
Please disconnect your lines.
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