final_presentation ires 2011

8/3/2019 FINAL_Presentation IRES 2011

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Influenceofdifferent oliticalframeworksforelectricenergystorageinGermanyandtheUnitedStates.

IRES2011

November28,2011

FlorianSchubertRenewable Analytics,LLC

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RenewableAnalytics,LLC

IndependentResearch

Renewable

Energy EnergyStorage

SupplyChainAnalysis

RegulatoryEnvironment

IndustryConsulting

Mergers&Acquisitions

MarketValuation

DueDiligence

ProcurementConsulting

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Agenda

GermanyandCalifornia

KeyStatistics

InfluencingFactors

PoliticalDrivers

NonPoliticalDrivers

MarketValuation

Opportunities&Risks Conclusions

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WhyCaliforniaandGermany?California Germany

General

Population(m) 37 81

Area(km2) 425,000 357,000

Electricity

Residential $0.1500 $0.3200

Consumptionof4personhousehold 7,000kWh/yr 3,500kWh/yr

Utilities ~80 >800

Renewables

ShareofRenewables2011 19% 18%

Shareof

Renewables

2020 33% 35%

SolarPV

InstalledPVCapacity(GW) 1.2 18.0

InstalledWatts/capita 30 220

Rooftopshareoftotalcapacity 30% 86%

ElectricInfrastructure

ElectricalGrid(km) 291,070 1,732,000

2010SystemPeakDemand(GW) 50 75

U rade costs for RPS fulfillment b 12 13

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California PoliticalDrivers

AssemblyBill(AB)2514

eve oprequ remen s oru es oprocureenergys oragesys emsorserv ces

What? Who? When? How? Where?

Systems Utility 2015 Raterecovery Centralized

Services Customer 2020 Customervalues Distributed

Thirdparty Servicecontracts

Jointownership

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Source:CPUC:R.1012007


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AssemblyBill2514

Proceeding Resultsby20122013

Definitionofrevenuesstreams

Fundingforpilotprojects

CPUC Storagecompanies

Utilities

e procuremen argenves ors

Lobbygroups

PriorityapplicationsidentifiedduringAB2514proceeding

RenewableIntegration

Reduceneedforfossilfueledpeakpowerplants

DeferralofT&Du rades

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Source:CPUC:R.1012007


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California NonPoliticalDrivers

Solarlandscape

PicturecourtesyofRenewableAnalytics,LLC.

DominatedbylargePVplants

UtilitiessignPPAswithdevelopers

FSLR:AguaCalienteProject(290MW)

Similartotraditionalpowerbusiness(PPAs,longtermcontracts)

Otherdrivers

Netmeteringisadisincentiveforresidentialstorage

TimeofUseratesbenefitresidentialstorage Gridreliability

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California TimeofUseRateDesign

TimeofUseratesprovideincentivetoarbitragebetweenOn andOffPeakprices

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GovernmentFunds

Program FrderinitiativeEnergiespeicherAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentAct(ARRA)

m n strat on epartmento nergy , ,

Funding $185m (135m) 200m

Totalprojectvolume 771m 560m) ~400m

Projects Applications Technologies Technologies

LoadShifting: LeadAcidbatteries Liion

GridSupport: Flowbatteries,Liion RedoxFlowbatteries

Renewables: Flowbatteries,Liion CAES

FrequencyRegulation: Flywheels Supercapacitors

ReserveCapacity: CAES FlywheelsPHS

Methanation

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Source:BMBF,SandiaNationalLaboratories.EURUSD 1.3748


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GermanysPerspective

Technologyapproachtoevaluateenergystorage

Differenttechnologiescanprovideenergystorage

R&Dfunding

Focusonindustryledjointresearchprojectstoselecttechnologies

e ect on

Competitiveprocess

PicturecourtesyofBeaconPower.

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Germany NonPoliticalDrivers

Solarlandscape

89%shareofrooftopsystems

ControllablegridconstraintsduetorenewablesPhotocourtesyofArizonaPublicService.

PhotocourtesyofVDE.

r regu at ons

Systemoperatorsrequiremonitoringofdecentralizedpowergeneration(50.2Hz)

Lessneedforenergystoragetobalanceload

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Source: 6Abs.2Nr.1EEG


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33(2)EEG SelfConsumptionIncentive

2009 2010 Oct10 2011 2012

ee n ar sma roo opsys ems p . . . . .

Incentive

for

Self

consumption

30% 25.01 22.76 16.65 12.36 8.05Incentiveforselfconsumption>30% 25.01 22.76 21.03 16.74 12.43

DifferenceFiTandIncentiveforselfconsumption( 30%) 18.00 16.38 16.38 16.38 16.38

erence an ncen ve orse consump on > . . . . .

2012Selfconsumption( 30%)incentive:8.05Cents/kWh

WhenFeedinTariffreaches16.38Cents/kWh:Incentivewilldisappear

Nolon termincentivetousestora e

GridParitywilldrivedemand

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Sources:BMU,RenewableAnalyticsResearch


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33aEEG OptionalMarketPremium

4

5/kWh Jan2012 withstorage

Peakprice4

5/kWh Jan2012 withoutstorage

2

3 Feedintariff

monthlymean

value(EPEX)

Marketpremium 33gEEG

Additionalrevenue

Marketpremium 33gEEG2

3 Feedintariff

monthymean

value(EPEX)

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Source:RenewableAnalytics,LLC0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Source:RenewableAnalytics,LLC

SolarPVelectricityhaspeakcharacteristics(115% 135%relativemarketvalue)

ar e prem um g = ee n ar mon ymeanva ue +

Feedintariffsaredeclining(Marketpremium )

Incentiveforstoragetosell100%ofproducedpoweratpeaktimes.

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Sources:BMU,EEG2012,Fraunhofer ISI,RenewableAnalyticsResearchMP=ManagementPremium.Coversadministrativecostsofelectricitytrading.


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OpportunitiesandThreats

California German

RegulatoryEnvironment GridParity

Grid

Infrastructure

Self

consumption

TimeofUseRates HighshareofresidentialsolarPV

Utilitiesinchargeofstorage

Opportunities

Costs

Costs

NetMetering ElectricInfrastructure

Shorttermorientation

Source:RenewableAnalytics,LLC

Threats

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Conclusions

Government

support

likely

Government

support

Customersideofthemeter Utilitysideofthemeter

Longtermcontracts(services)

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.

FlorianSchubert

Analyst

[email protected]

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final_presentation ires 2011

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