April 2011 Issue

Finance & Economy

Chief Investment Strategist of UBS Yonghao Pu: Hop on to Chinese Stock-picking

INSIDE:Arthur Kwong from BNP Paribas Investment Partners shares his insight on the Asian economy prospect

How much will your wedding cost? Your one-stop guide to wedding planning

Tai Tak Securities teaches you how to manage your personal securities investment

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02 President’sMessage

03 NationalPresident’sMessage NationalAssignedExecutiveOfficer’sMessage

04 MembershipAffairs(會員事務)

06 JCIWorldMessage(國際青年商會會訊)

07 Member’sInnerWorld(會員心聲) 2011InauguralBallinaphotographer’seyes

08 SharingofWisdom(智慧的分享) InterviewwithArthurKwong:AsianEconomyProspect

13 Lifestyle(生活方式) WeddingFinancialPlanning

16 Economist’sInspiration(經濟學家的啟示) InYearoftheRabbit,hopontoChinesestock-picking

18 JCMarathon(青商馬拉松) OrganizationPolitics

20 YouMustKnow(須知) RiskManagementinYourPersonalSecuritiesInvestment

Publication Team

ChiefEditor:KaryLamEditor:JohnsonChowSupervisingOfficer:JadeChan

Advisors

2011PresidentNelsonLinPastNationalPresidentSenatorAndrewWong2011VicePresidentJohnathanLee

Our Contact Information

Web-site:www.kowloonjc.orgTel:(852)25438913Fax:(852)25436271E-mail:info@kowloonjc.org

Threemonths. Somepeoplewill spend this lengthof time to takeashort-termcourseor finishaworkproject.AsthepresidentofKowloonJuniorChamberin2011,thepast3monthshavebeenverychallenging,yet exciting. From chapter management, externalorganization interactions, projects coordination,members' communication, time management tointensive events attendance, I have never thoughtI could gain all these fabulous experiences in 3months.Allofthesevaluablelearningopportunitiesare given to me by our members. The coming 3monthswillbe time toshowcasesomeofourhardworks by holding press conferences for the "MostPopular Kids' Products Selection" and "Sleepout",a workshop of Children's Chinese CalligraphyCompetition, "Change Maker" Forum, COC Dartcompetition, a Junior Chamber International (JCI)Presentertrainingcourse,andajointprogramwithPanMacJuniorChamberofMacao.Throughthesemeaningful events brought out by the KowloonJunior Chamber, I am confident that we will trulydemonstratethespiritofourslogan,"WeLead!WeShine!"

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National President’s messageTheJCIHongKong is theplacewhereyoucanmakeyourdreamscome true!Echoing our 2011mission to “LEADTHENEXT”, our passionatemembers areworkinghardtoimplementtheirprojectsinthefirstquarteroftheyear.Theyarenowaccomplishingtheirdreamsandstartingtoenjoyfruitfulresults.

TheKowloonJuniorChamberbelievesthatchallengesthatarisealongtheroadtomakingadreamcometruearetreasuredopportunitiesforthemtoLEADandSHINE.Thefirstdreamthatyoumadecometruewasthe“PressConferenceforthe2011MostPopularKids’ProductsSelection”.Ibelievethatthesuccessofsuchmeaningful projects as the “Children’sChineseCalligraphyCompetition”,whichaimstonurtureinyouththeir inheritanceofChineseculture,andtheimpressive“SleepOutProject”,whichgivesparticipantsthechancetoexperiencehowitmightfeel to live in a poor environment relies on the efforts of everymember of theKowloonJuniorChamber.

The JCIHongKong iswell prepared to LEADTHEWAY,with several nationalprojectssettobelaunchedoverthecomingmonths.Ibelievethatourmembersarereadytotakeupanychallengeandwilldotheirbesttoexcelinthefuture.WearealsoreadytoshowourunityandabilitytoorganiseaspectacularASPACin2012forJCImembers!

Lastbutnottheleast,Ibelievethat,undertheleadershipofPresidentNelsonandhisenthusiasticboardofdirectors,theKowloonJuniorChamberwillSHINEin2011!

National Assigned Executive Officer's Message“Instead of giving themselves reasons why they cannot, they give themselvesreasonswhytheycan”.PresidentNelsonandhisBoardMembersdemonstratewhat“teamwork”is.Asuperteamworkdividesthetask,multipliesthesuccessandinspirestrust.AtKowloonJuniorChamber,thereisstrongandconsistentsupportintheteamandtheydisplaycommitmentandqualityateachlevel.Theywelcometheopportunitytotakeonnewresponsibilitiesandchallenges.

Bringing innovation and fresh ideas to the planning, in March, they launchedoneoftheirflagshipprojects“2011MostPopularKids'ProductsSelection”pressconferencewhichaimstorecognizethemostpopularkidsproductsinHongKongthattargetchildrenfrom0to3yearsold.Thepressconferenceofanothernewproject“SleepOut”wasalsosuccessfullyheldlaterinthesamemonth.“Sleepout”requiresitsparticipantstostayoutforanightinacardboardsheltertoexperienceandrealizewhatthey"want"andwhatthey"need".

This month, yet another flagship project “2011 Children Chinese CalligraphyCompetition”willlaunchtopromoteourChinesecultureandtorecognizechildrenwhoarepassionateaboutChinesecalligraphy. Inaddition, theKowloonJuniorChamberisalsohostingtheNationalOrganizationMember(NOM)project“ChangeMaker Forum” and co-hosting “COC –Dart Competition”withCity Lady JuniorChamber. Besidestheseprojects,KowloonJuniorChambercontinuestomaintaincloserelationshipswithitsLocalOrganizationMember(LOM)sisterchaptersoverseas.WithPresidentNelsoninthelead,hisBoardmemberssparenoefforttoaccomplishthe targetsandareallmoving in thesamedirection. KowloonJuniorChamberalreadyhadagreatstarttothefruitfulyearof2011andIwishyoueverysuccessintheupcomingprojects.03

NationalAssignedExecutiveOfficerNationalVicePresidentLiccaChan

SenatorTimmyLeeNationalPresidentJuniorChamberInternationalHongKong

MembershipAffairs(會員事務)Kowloon Junior Chamber’s objective is to provide opportunities for young people to developleadershipskillsandsocialresponsibilitytocreatepositivechangestothecommunity.

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3. 頒獎禮

活動日期︰ 2011年7月下旬

時間︰ 下午2:30-4:30

1. 書法及理財工作坊(網上報名)

活動日期︰ 2011年4月17日時間︰ 下午2:00-5:00地點︰ 香港小童群益會607室

香港灣仔駱克道三號

2. 書法決賽

活動日期︰ 2011年7月下旬

時間︰ 上午9:30-12:30

小時網上電台24

3. 頒獎禮活動日期︰ 2011年7月下旬時間︰

下午2:30-4:30

1. 書法及理財工作坊(網上報名)活動日期︰ 2011年4月17日時間︰下午2:00-5:00地點︰香港小童群益會607室香港灣仔駱克道三號

2. 書法決賽活動日期︰ 2011年7月下旬時間︰

上午9:30-12:30

小時網上電台24

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JCIWorldMessage(國際青年商會會訊)JCI gives itsmembers a very special opportunity tomake friends all over theworld.We have200,000internationalfriendsfromdifferentJCIchaptersaround114countriesintheworld.Inthepastcoupleofmonthsalone,wehadachancetocatchupwithourfriendsfromdifferentcountries.

OnFebruary29,ourfriendsfromoneofoursisterchapters,Taipei Jaycettes of Taiwan,visitedHongKong.ItwasnicetocatchupandenjoytheniceviewsatthePeak!

On March 19, Kowloon JCs travelled to Kuala Lumpur to attend the Kuala Lumpur Junior Chamber of Malaysia’s InaguralBall. Someofourmembers took theopportunity todosomesightseeingwhiletheywerethere!

OnApril2,KowloonJCtravelledtoDaegu,KoreatosigntheSisterhoodPactwithDaegu Suseong JC of Korea!ThissolidifiesourfriendshipwithDSJC,andpromotesastrongerbondandbridgebetweenthetwochapters.

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Member'sInnerWorld(會員心聲)About the author:Johnathan LeeWorkingExperience:ProfessionalweddingphotographerMemberofWedding&PortraitPhotographersInternationalWebsite:www.johnathanlee.com.hkJCIExperience:2011VicePresidentofKowloonJuniorChamber(Membershipaffairs).Hobbies:Photography,design,socialnetwork

InauguralballisoneofthemostsplendideventsofJuniorChamberInternationalHongKong(JCIHK),itisnotonlytheannouncementofthedutytakenbythenewmanagementteam of national board at thebeginning of the year, but also anexposure of 19 chapters in JCIHKbefore the JC fellows; all chaptershavetheirboardofdirectorspresentattheinauguralball.

Asaloyalmember,IamproudtobeaJC.Asaphotographeroftheevent,Iseethiseventfromadifferentpointofview.Asaphotographer,Igettobethereandbeinvolvedintherehearsaland see the team effort inmaking the inaugural ball one of themost successful events in2011,not tomentionafreepasstoaccessanywhereat theeventvenueandget towitnessmanyuniquephenomena:theanxiousbeautiesatthedressingroompreparingtobestunningatthebanquet;theanxiousorganizingcommitteeteamensuringtheprogramrunssmoothly.Everyonetherewasso"anxious"!Becausetheyalltriedsohardinmakingeverythingright,theyweretheproudestpeopleknowingtheeventwasablast!Onlythosewhocontinuouslytranscendtheexpectationcancreatesuchamilestone!Iwassotouched!

The Inaugural Ball was flawless. Everyonethere could immediately feel the passionamongthemembers,andIwasamazedthatover300attendancesweresoconnectedandtheyall shared thesame joyand tears frombeing a JCI member. It was just amazingandIdaretosaythatonly thephotographerwhogets tobeeverywhereat theeventcanwitness it all and capture some of themostremarkablemomentsoftheevent!

Interviewee:ArthurKwong,Profession:HeadofAsiaPacificHighIncomeEquityatBNPParibasInvestmentPartners.Education:HoldstwoBachelor’sdegrees(ActuarialStudiesandAppliedFinance)fromMacquarieUniversity,Australia,andaMaster’sdegreeinFundsManagementfromtheUniversityofNewSouthWales.Qualifications:includeAssociateofInstituteofActuariesofAustralia(AIAA),CharteredFinancialAnalyst(CFA)andFinancialRiskManager(FRM).

SharingofWisdom(智慧的分享)

Asian Economy ProspectInterviewedbyJadeChanWrittenbyJohnsonChow

Editorialteam:NelsonLin,LeoLam,JohnathanLee

Havinggonethroughtheglobalfinancialcrisisrecently, seeing large financial institutionscollapsed, and governments in even thewealthiest nations having to come up withrescue packages to bail out their financialsystems, it isunderstandablewhyeveryoneisconcernedabouttheeconomythesedays.

WeareveryfortunatetohaveinvitedMr.ArthurKwong, Head of Asia Pacific High IncomeEquityatBNPParibasInvestmentPartners,tosharesomeofhisthoughtsabouttheeconomyinAsiainthenearfuture.

Q: What are your views about the overall Asian economy for this coming year?A:Myoutlook ispositive forAsiaasawhole;there are a lot of growth opportunities. Takecreditcardpenetrationasexample; it’sas lowas 5% in some parts of Asia, like India andIndonesia.Thismeansthatmostpeopledon’tevenhavetheconceptofcreditcards.

RightnowChinais juststartingtofocusoninternalconsumption.Chinesebrandsarealsoat itsinfancy,40yearsbehind theUS. Some internalbrandshavestarted tomature,but in thebrandlifecycle,itwilltakeanother20yearsforbrandstodeveloptointernationalstage.

Indiaisabout10-15yearsbehindChina,intermsofvariouseconomicanddemographicmetrics.Itisyoungandvibrant.Itisgoingtobetheworld’slargestsupplieroflabourforceinthenextdecadeaccording to Goldman Sachs research. Domestic penetration in various products and servicesfromauto tobankingserviceshasbeenparticularly lowand isset torisewithastronggrowth indisposableincomeforIndians.

Indonesia is the 4th in theworld in terms of population,with 200-300million people.Thiscountryhasanabundantsupplyofnaturalresources,includingcoal,zinc,tin,andsoft commodities. In addition, it is an industrializingnation. Historically, therehavebeenveryfewcountrieswhichhaveabundantresources,alargepopulation,andalso

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potentialforindustrialization.ThatiswhyIamparticularlypositiveaboutIndonesia.

Asia isagoodmicrocosmof theworldwithdiversityandopportunities,witheachcountryhavingdifferent fundamental drivers of the economy. Korea has technology giants like Samsung, thePhilippinesisfocusingonbusinessprocessoutsourcing.

However,therearealsoriskstobeawareof.Thisyearisaninflationyear,andinaninflationaryenvironment,emergingeconomieswillsuffer.Amediumtolongtermconcernistherisingoilprices.Intheshortterm,theinstabilityinNorthAfricaandMiddleEasthascausedoilpricestospike.ButIammoreconcernedaboutthelongertermimbalanceintheoilsupplyanddemandmarket,whichwilleventuallyleadtoconflicts.59%oftheworld’soilsupplyisintheMiddleEast,10%inAfrica.ButAsiaaccounts forabout33%ofglobaldemand,butonly3%ofglobalsupply.That isahugeimbalanceinthedistributionofoilinthemarket.Whenthereissuchadisparitybetweenthesupplyanddemandforoil,thereisalongtermriskofpriceincreases.ThisisakeyfactorholdingbackAsiaandtheworldeconomy.

Q: With the high risk of inflation in the market, what can citizens and governments do to prepare and battle this inflation risk?A: Right now, there aren’tmanyinvestmentvehiclesthatpay interest, so many havegone topurchase realestate,causing property prices to goup and capping rental yieldsin the region. Normally, realestate is a good vehicle tohedge inflation risk. But atthisstage,with realestatesoexpensive, you will exposeyourself to other risks, suchas a correction in real estate

prices.Donotblindlythinkthatinvestmentinrealestatewillhedgeinflation.

Anotheroptionistobuygold,butthat’salsoadouble-edgedsword.Ononehand,thereisnoyield;ontheotherhandithasgoodpotentialforappreciation.ForvariousEuropeancentralbanks,goldaccountsforabout50%oftheirtotalreserves.ButthisisnotyetsoinAsia,withonly3%oftheirreservesingold(mostlycashatbank).There’snoyieldingold,butthere’snoyieldincasheither.Sincethereislessthan5%ofgoldinAsiancentralbanks’reserves,diversifyinguptoeven10%isnotunreasonable.Ifthisindeeddevelopsintoafundamentaldemandforgoldinthenext10years,thentherewillbepressureforgoldpricestorise.

Inflationlinkedstockscanalsobeusedtohedgeinflationrisks.Sincethefinancialcrisis,themarketrallyhasgonetowardsstockswithcommoditiesandrealestateexposure.Inmyopinion,equitiesarenotoverpriced. But youneed todoyourhomework. As

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forbonds,regularbondsarealreadyveryexpensive,sincemany largefundsfledtobondswhenequitieswere falling. But therearealsobonds thatare inflationadjusted,suchas I-Bonds. Youjustneedtobecarefulofwhichcountry’sinflationitislinkedto.IfitislinkedtotheUS,aslongasthereisnoinflationintheUS,thebondcannotbeusedtohedgethearound4.5%inflationinHongKong.Besides,beawareofthepurchaselimitforI-Bonds.Forthosewhohavealargeamountofassets,youmaynotbeabletohedgesufficientamountsagainstinflationandwillneedtouseothervehicles.

Q: Some experts predict that because of China’s development, Hong Kong can surpass London or New York as the world’s financial centre. What do you think about this prediction?A:HongKonghasdonewellasaninternationalfinancialcentre,attractingIPOsfromaroundtheworld,butIbelievethereisstillroomforimprovement.OneadvantagethatHongKonghasisitsexperienceinattractingandmanaginglargeamountsofcapital;itbecomeseasiertocommunicatewithbuyersandsellers.Anotheradvantageisthesimpletaxstructure.Butwecanstill learnandimproveonourshortcomings,forexamplethelossofHutchisonPortdealtoSingaporeduetosomeinflexible regulations thatHongKongdoesn’tallowanycommercial trust.Singapore is inmergertalkswithAustralia tocombine theirexchanges intoahugecommoditiesplatform. CommoditiesareaninherentweaknessinHongKongbecausemorecommoditiesareconcentratedinSouthernAsia.Ontopofthat,Chinahasnosignificantdebtmarket,cappingtheoveralldevelopmentoftheeconomywithequitiespredominantly. HongKongand itsStockExchangeneed to thinkof newwaystocompeteintheworldwidemarkets.ItatleastneedstocreateitsownsuccessstoryinitsownAsianregionbeforeitcanreallycompetewiththerestoftheworld.

Q: What would you recommend to professionals and investors to prepare for or be aware of, in this coming year?A:HongKong people need to broaden and develop their international view. Becausewe haveChinaasourneighbour,wearehighly focusedon,and toomuchon theChinesemarkets. WeloseouttoothermarketsinunderstandingtheworldoutsideChina.ManyHongKongtraderscan’tmentionnamesof 5 Indian stocks. Individual investors are advised to do their own research toinvestigate and understand the details or the strategies of investment funds and the underlyingcompaniesbeforeinvesting.Start fromwhatyoulikeoruseindaily lives,suchastechnologyorwinecompanies,andthenexpandtootherareas.

Q: There are a lot of Chinese companies that want to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. What can the Hong Kong market do to provide better service for these companies?A:Professionals can provide better advice to these Chinese companies by enhancing theirinternational view. Understanding the background and history and sharing stories about thecompanyratherthanjustthebalancesheetorfinancialsofthecompany.ThesimpletaxstructureinHongKong isalsoadvantageous tous. Weshouldemphasizeandadvertise itmore! Finally,weneedtomaketherightconnectionwithcompanies.Inmyindustry,Iheardsomeanalystsmaywritearesearchreportwithoutevenmeetingwithmanagementteamofthecompanies.Whileontheotherhand,Ialsoknowsomeanalystswouldtaketheinitiativetorequesttovisitthestoresandunderstandtheoperationsandreallyputintheefforttodotheduediligence.Andbydoingthingsright,italsoenhancesthereputationforHongKongprofessionals.

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Q: With regards to RMB, other countries have said the Yuan is undervalued by 25% to possibly 40%. Last year, the Chinese government has resumed the slow rise of the Yuan. How far and how fast, do you see the Yuan’s appreciation, and what effect does it have to us in Hong Kong?A: Almost everyone is already longing forRMB, and shortingUSD. But currently,China is stilllookingattradetodrivetheeconomy.Becauseofthehighimportsandhighexports,alotofjobsarecreatedintheeconomy.However,iftheeconomicgrowthisdependentonnetexports,appreciationofChina’scurrencywillnotcomeeasily. If thecurrency risesat theexpenseofexports, it’snotworthit.Thecountryneedstotakealookattheentireequationtoseeifit’sbeneficial.Evenifitappreciates,itwillbeveryslow.Andifthereareproblems,thegovernmentwilleasilymakesthedecisiontodepreciateitagain.ForHongKongpeople,RMBappreciationisgoodandbad.HongKongwillexperienceimportinflation,butifitattractsmoreconsumption,there’sbenefittothelocaleconomytoo.Sincewedon’thavecurrencyflexibility,thereisalsoadefiniteneedtodiversifyintoRMB.ThiswillbeachallengeforpeopleinHongKong.Wereallyneedtothinkabouthowwecaninnovate,improveandremaincompetitivetosurvive.

Q: What do you think about the RMB as a world currency, and what do you think about Hong Kong’s role as a RMB market on the world stage?A:The key to an international currency is confidence, andwhat resources it has to back it up.USDistheinternationalreservecurrencybecauseUShasenoughresourcestobackit.Asiahaslittleconcentrationofanyresource,that’swhynoAsiancountryiswillingtolinkittoacommodity,otherwisethecurrencywillcollapse.SothereisnowayforanyAsiancurrency,includingtheRMB,tobecomethedefaultcurrencyintheworldmarket.

Fromleft:JadeChan,PresidentNelsonLin,ArthurKwong,JohnsonChow

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Q: You have an opposite view from most that you should take less risk when you’re young, and more risk when you’re old when investing. Why is that?A: In today’smarket,why should young investors notworry about risk in themarket, especiallywhentheydon’thavemuchexperience?Itismoreimportanttofirstlearnhowtothink,ratherthanwhattothink.Veryfewpeopleconsiderthis.Whywouldyouthrowinvestmentintohighriskitemswithoutknowingwhatyouwantorhowtoreacttomarketmovementandinformation?Ifyouwin,you’relucky.Butwhenyou’remoreseasonedandexperienced,thatiswhenyoucanandshouldtakemorerisk. Just likeGeorgeSoros,he issuccessful later inhiscareerbecause itallcomesdowntoexperience.

Q: How would you recommend going about following this approach and doing investment research? A:Iliketotakealookatthingsfromatop-downmacroperspective.Foroil,I’dlookattheentiremapoftheworld,wheretheoilislocated,wherethemountains,theroads,thepipelines,supplyanddemandare.ThenI’lllookatcompanies,andwheretheyarelocated.Ifyou’relookingatbanks,youcanlistandrankallthebanksbasedontheirprofitability.ThenyoucananalyzewhyabanklikeHengSengBank,operating inHKwithapopulationof7million,makessomuchmoreprofitthansay,thebanksinIndonesia,withapopulationof200million.Thisway,youcanseewherethepotentiallies,andthenyoucandrilldowntothedetailstoseewheretherealopportunitiesaretoexploited.

Q: Would you recommend a young professional to create a lifelong financial plan that matches with the development for China as a whole? A:Yes,assumingyou’refamiliarwithChina.Ifyou’refamiliarwiththelocation,atleastyoushouldknowwhatyou’redoinginthatarea.Andit’snotlimitedtoaspecificregioneither.Mysuggestionis,ifyouareveryfamiliarwithaparticularindustryorcompany,thisiswhereyoushouldstartyourinvestigation,planningandaccumulationofwealth.

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Written by Kary Lam,PROFESSION:ChiropractorJCIEXPERIENCE:2011PublicationDirectorofKowloonJuniorChamber2010ChildrenChineseCalligraphyCompetitionProjectChairlady2010TenOutstandingYoungPersonsSelection(TOYP):MasterofCeremonyandOrganizingCommitteeMember

Lifestyle(生活方式)

You and your better half are ready tomove on to the next stage in your relationship – you areplanning togetmarried! Ifyou, likemostotheryoungcouples,don’thaveat least$100,000HKDlyingaroundreadytobespentonawedding,it’sprobablyagoodideatostartsaving,andhaveanideaofthetypicalweddingexpensesbeforethecostsquicklygetoutofhand.

1. Pre-Wedding Expenses Beforetheweddingday,youwillalreadybepayingmoney

for various wedding expenses. Here's a list of the mostcommonwedding expenses thatwill need to be coveredwellbeforetheweddingday:

• Bride's and Groom’s wedding attire (wedding gown, garter, accessories)–Youwillneed todecidewhetheryouwantto rent or buy the attires. There are renting packagesavailable, usually for $5000-$10000 for 3-5 pieces ofgownsorsuits.Shoparound.

• Engagement and wedding rings – This will of course bedependentofthecouple’spreference.Costscanincreaseexponentiallywiththesizeoftherockofcourse.

How much will my wedding cost me?

One way to cut down on your wedding costs is to rent your wedding attires rather than buying them.

There are many popular outdoor places for pre-wedding photo shoots in Hong Kong. Above is the beautiful view at Shek O.

• Pre-wedding photo shoot– ifyouplan tostay in townfor the photo shoot, you can probably get it done foraround$10000-$15000.TherearemanybeautifulplacesaroundHongKongwhereyoucantakestunningweddingphotos.Overseasphotoshootswillbedependentonthelocation,youneedtotakeintoaccounttheflightandstayexpenses.

Wedding Ceremony ExpensesThecoupleneeds todecidewhere theywould like tohold theweddingceremony. Nowadays, tosave costs and for the sake of convenience,many are opting to hold the ceremony immediatelybeforetheweddingbanquetatthesamevenue.Forcouplesthataremoretraditionalorreligious,theymaydecidetoholdtheweddingceremonyatachurch.

• Church rental-$3000-$5000.Thiswilldependonthelocationandwhetheryourbigdayfallsonaweekend.

• Decorations (Venue & Cars)-$1000-$5000.Tosavecost,getthegroom’spartytohelpoutwithdecorating,insteadofhiringacompanytodoit.

• Outfit rental/purchase (bridesmaids, groomsmen) can costyou around $3000-$5000, depend the size of your bridal/groom’sparty.

• Wedding minister -$3000-$5000. Makesureyougetalongwiththeministerbeforeyouputdownadeposit.Ifyoudon’twant theministermaking lotsof jokesduring theceremony,don’thireafunnyone!

• Make-up artist-thiswillcostyouaround$5000-$10000.Youcanhireamakeupartistfortheentireday,oronlyduringspecificperiodsduringtheday(sayinthemorningandeveningduringthebanquet).

• Videographer & photographer–Hirethemtogetheraspartofthewhole-daypackagetosavemoney.

Wedding Reception ExpensesTheweddingreceptionisbyfarwhereyouwillfindthemostweddingexpenses.Costsherecanvarywidelydependingonthevenue,andhowmanyguestsyouplan to invite,etc.butcanbeanywhere from$100,000 (for a very economical couple!) to $300,000+ (for amorelavishreception).Expensesinclude:

• Foodservices(food/alcoholcosts)willrackupto$10000-$30000.• Decorations (centerpieces, wedding favors, etc.) $5000-$10000,

but often these can be included as a part of a package whennegotiatingwithyourvenue

Cost of venue rental goes up significantly on weekends and public holidays. If you are willing to give up a little bit of convenience to save money, a weekday wedding maybe a good option.

Plan ahead about the number of guests you want to invite. This can have a big effect on your overall wedding cost.

Post-Wedding ExpensesThebiggestfactorhereiswhetherornotyouwilltakeahoneymoonandthedestination.Expecttospendatleast$10000-$30000+.• Honeymoon• Thankyoucardsorgifts(writtentothosewhogavegifts,thosewhohelpedmakethewedding

happenandanyoneelseofyourchoosing)

The costs are probably overwhelming right now. Don’t worry, it is not as bad as it looks. TheeldersinyourfamilywillmostlikelygivethecouplegiftsingoldaccessoriesaspartoftheChinesetradition.Andyourguestswillusuallybesendingcashweddinggiftsaswell.Generally,cashgiftsrangefrom$500-$1200.

The to-do-list never ends. Where do I start?Forsure,you’dliketoconfirmyourweddingvenuefirst.TraditionalChinese,mostlikelyincludingyourparents,areverypickywhen itcomestochoosing thedate for thewedding- itshouldbealuckyoneaccordingtothelunarcalendar.Theseluckydaysgetbookedupprettyquickly.Youmayneedtobookayearoreventwoyearsinadvanceifyourbigdayfallsonaweekend.

Onceyouhaveyourdatesetand thevenuebooked,youcangoaheadandshoparound for theweddingdayphotographer/videographer,makeupartists,weddinggowns,etc.

HappyWeddingPlanning!

Pre-weddingBride&Groomattire $5,000-$10,000

Engagement&weddingrings $40,000-$100,000

Pre-weddingphotoshoot $10,000-$15,000

Wedding CeremonyChurchrental $3,000-$5,000

Decorations(church&car) $1,000-$5,000

Outfitforgroomsmen&bridesmaids $3,000-$5,000

Weddingminister $3,000-$5,000

Makeupartist $5,000-$10,000

Videographer&photographer $10,000-$15,000

Wedding ReceptionFood&Drinks $100,000-$300,000

Decorations(centerpieces,weddingfavorsetc) $5,000-$10,000

Post-weddingHoneymoon $10,000-$30,000

Thankyoucardsorgifts $500-$2,000

GRAND TOTAL $195,500 - $512,000(minus)cashgifts $100,000-$200,000

TOTAL EXPENSE $95,500 - $312,000

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Economist’sInspiration(經濟學家的啟示)

In Year of the Rabbit, hop on to Chinese stock-pickingWiththelunarNewYearcomesavarietyofreasonstostaypositiveonChineseequities.Amongthefundamentaldriverssupportingayearoffavorablereturnsareforecastsofrobusteconomicgrowthat9%andstrongcorporateearningsgrowthat17%,aswellasthemarket'scurrent12%discounttoitshistoricalaverage.

Therabbitcallsfora3-4-5awarenessoftheoverallmarket.Threekeyriskscouldsetbackadvances:inflation, policy measures, and global market shocks. But four catalysts could send the markethigher: stabilizing prices, the 12th Five-Year Plan, the explosion in 3Gmobile subscribers, andgoodglobalmacrodata.Emergingfromall thesearefive investmentthemes,centeredonstocksbenefitingfromassetreflation,thesocialhousingboom,China'songoingindustrialupgrade,deeplydiscountedvaluations,andridingtheWest'srecovery.

Thelastofthefivebearsfocus.Thepositiveeconomicdatawecontinue tosee fromtheUSandEurope ispointing toa recovery in business and consumer spending. The USpurchasingmanagers' indexhasbeenabove the50-pointmilestonefor17monthsnow.QuarterlyearningsofS&P500companies have consistently beaten analysts' estimatesby 8-10% over the last two years. Meanwhile, consumerconfidence in the Eurozone continues to improve, havingpostedinNovemberitshighestlevelsincelate2007despitetheworsening debt troubles of countries likeGreece andIreland.

Ifthiscontinues,asweexpect,itwouldnodoubtstimulatethe growth of companies that cater to these markets.Chinese exporters have perhaps themost at stake in theWest'srecovery.Whileithasbeenstronglypromotingamoredomesticallyoriented

Profile:YonghaoPuistheChiefInvestmentStrategist,AsiaPacific,atUBSWealthManagementResearch.He contributed numerous articles to publicationssuchasThewallStreetJournal,FinancialTimes,InternationalEconomy,CatoJournal,TheBanker,etc.YonghaoPuhasalsobeeninvitedtospeakonAsianEconomicissuesatmajoreconomiceventsincluding the World Economic Forum, OECDConference,andChinaSummit.

Investorsneedtobeawareofissuesofinflation, policymeasures, and globalmarketshocks,whichcanhavecauserealsetbacksonstocks.

economy,ChinacannotcompletelyreorientitsexportersawayfromproducingforUSandEuropeancustomers.FromJanuary toNovember2010, forexample,38%ofChineseexportswereroughlyevenly split between the US and European Union. It remains too early to say that China cancompletelydecouplefromtheWest'sbusinesscycle.

Stock-picking is the keyWith a recovery in capital expenditure and consumer spending in the West, we expect certainexporters and industrial companies to see demand growth; petrochemicals companies to enjoystrongprices;andtransportcompaniestoseehighertraffic.Butthisoutlookdoesnotnecessarilyapplytotheirsectorsoverall.Chinafacesseriousrisksofrisinginflationandincreasinglaborwages,withvaryingimpactsoncompanies'margins.Acarefulstock-pickingapproachisthereforeinorder.

Asusual,thedevilofstock-pickingisinthedetails.Duringinflationarytimes–whereChinaisnow– raw-materialcostscouldclimbdue tohighercommodityprices,andcompaniesarenotalwaysabletofullypassthesecoststhroughtotheircustomers.Moreover,Chinesewagesareexpectedtorisethisyear–evenaftera20%increaseintheminimumwagelastmonthalready.Andtheyuanisexpectedtoappreciateinthenext12months,by6%againsttheUSdollarand2%ontheeuro.

Certainapparelmakers,facedwithhighercottonpricesandrisingwages,havewarnedofapossiblesharpdeteriorationingrossmarginsinthesecondhalfofthisyear,despiteastrongorderbookfromUSandEUcustomers.Inthiscase,thosewithdividendyieldofaround6-7%,andarealsotradingatattractivevaluations,shouldproverewarding.

The US started to see a pick-up in home sales in the second half of 2010, and a leading UShome-improvement retailer recently raised its long-termguidance. These developments bode well for Chinesehome-product exporters, especially those specializing inDIY(do-it-yourself)productssuchaspowertools,outdoorpowerequipment,andfloor-careappliances.

Transportand logisticsoperatorsareclearwinners froma trade recovery, but China's container shipping stockshaverecentlydonewellandarenolongercheap.Theportsectorshouldoffervalueasvolumerecovery ison trackand most Chinese ports have recently raised handlingtariffs. Those that continue to expand overseas and inhigh-endlogisticsarepoisedforfuturegrowth.

Industrialsupplierssuchasmanufacturersofmachinery,materialsandpetrochemicalsshouldalsobenefitfromanoverseasdemandrecovery.Chinesemachineryandmaterialscompanieswiththeaddedadvantageofbeingstrongdomesticallyshouldbemorepreferable.Thecommoditypetrochemicalsindustryisexpectedtofacesupplydeficitsthisyear,whichispositiveforpricingandmarkets,butfocusshouldbegiventothemostattractivelyvalued.

Goingbacktothedomesticfront,abroadersectorapproachmaybewarranted.Assectorperformancehasvariedsignificantlyeven in the first fewweeksof2011,sectorselection is important,andwebelieveinvestorsshouldbenefitfrombuyingcyclicalsectorsonmarketdips.

ThehousingmarketupturnintheUShasapositiveeffectontheexportsofChinesehomeimprovementtools.

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About the author:PastNationalPresident(NP),SenatorAndrewWong,BBS

PastNationalPresident(NP)AndrewWong,BBSbeganhisJCcareerin1977whenhejoinedKowloonJC.Continuouslyfor34years,hemaintainsanactiveserviceashewaselectedorappointedtoalongseriesofpostsatlocal(LOM),national(NOM)andinternationallevels,managingdifferentorganizationsandhandlingprogrammesandprojectsinallthefourareasofJCopportunities.HehasalsobeenaJCICertifiedNationalTrainersincetheearly80s.Atpresent,heisanAdvisorofJCIHongKongandKowloonJC,andtheChairmanof2012JCIAsiaPacificHongKongConferenceLtd.

PastNPAndrewretiredasaDirectorateofficeroftheHongKongCustomsandExciseDepartmentin2004after34yearsofservice.HewashonouredwiththeBronzeBauhiniaStar(BBS)bytheHongKongGovernmentinrecognitionofhisdistin-guishedservicetotheCustomsandthecommunity.

ThroughhislongyearsofactiveinvolvementintheJCandthepublicservice,PastNPAndrewhasaccumulatedawealthofknowledgeandexperienceinvariousfieldsincludingorganizationmanagement,projectmanagement,meetingchairmanship,leadershipdevelopmentetc.

Organization Politics

組織的人與事 (1)On occasions, we would hear from people, especially themanagement or ruling parties, that their comments (orrather criticism) solely referred to the matter and they hadno intentiontocriticize thepersonhandlingthematter.Thatis,thereisnothingpersonal“對事不對人”.Onhearingthesecomments, there is immediately a response in my mind:Why can’t they consider both thematter and the person atthesametime,i.e.“對事又對人”?Afterall,thegreatmajorityof organizations including the Junior Chamber are people-oriented.Wecannotuse“對事不對人”astheshieldtoignorethefactthattheself-confidenceofapersoncanbebadlyhurtbysomeharshcriticism.

Inmyopinion,“對事不對人” isnotamanagementleadershipskill of the top level. Obviously it is a lot more difficult todealwithboththematterandtheperson“對事又對人”sinceitrequiresagreatdealofexperienceandleadershipskillsatahigherleveltoarriveatasituationthatsatisfiesthemajorityofpartiesconcerned.

Whileitisnoteasyto“對事又對人”,Iwouldhavethoughtthatinhandlingamatter,i.e.對事,weneedtostriketherightbalanceinhandlingboththematterandtheperson.Weshouldalwayssetourtargethighandtryourutmosttoachievethebestresult.Atthesametime,weshouldgainabetterunderstandingof thepersongiven theassignment todealwith thematter. Ishegood,verygoodor excellent? With suchunderstanding,wewould be able to generate a reasonableexpectationofthepersonandgivehimsuitableguidanceinthecourseofhandlingthematterandthushelpthepersondeveloptheconfidenceindealingwithsimilarsituationsinfuture.Inshort,“對事要求高, 對人要求準”.

Dealingwithoff icepol i t icstakesexperienceandf inesse.Itisaskillcertainlynoteasilyachieved.

JCMarathon(青商馬拉松)

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About the author:Frederick ChanFrederickpossessedB.Comp.Eng.andM.Sc(EE)DegreefromMcMasterUniversityandU.ofAlberta,respectively.Aftergraduation,hewasinvolvedinvarioussuccessfulbusinessesinfiber-optics.HejoinedTaiTakin1996asGeneralManagerandnowasExecutiveDirector.Hedevelopedanin-houseinternetplatform“InvestmentToolkit”andadvocatedriskmanagementinsecuritiesinvestment.ExecutiveDirectorTaiTakSecurities(Asia)Ltd.www.taitakasia.comEmail:frederick.chan@taitakasia.com

YouMustKnow(須知)

Risk Management in Your Personal Securities InvestmentIt happens, even though the chance is extremely small. "The current situation of theearthquake, tsunami and the nuclear plants is in a way the most severe crisis in the 65yearssinceWorldWarII."-NaotoKan,PrimeMinisterofJapan.Itisallaboutprobabilities,naturaldisasterandriskmanagement,theyareblendedtogether.Whileearthquake/tsunamiis natural disaster, the nuclear plant crisis is more of a risk management problem and issomethingthatcouldhavebeenavoided.

Similar thingshappenedto the financialmarket in2007- theso-called"financial tsunami",being theworst financialmeltdownsince theGreatDepressionalmost100yearsagoalsotriggered"nuclear-like"chainreactionsthathadaffectedthewholeworld.Thechancewassupposed tobeverysmall,butagain itdidhappen.Sinceearly2009, theDOW indexhadtaken a strong and consistent rebound and, as of today, it is quite close to sailing home,as compared to its peak before Lehman Brothers went busted. On the contrary, our SSEComposite(Shanghai) IndexorCEI(HK)tookonasimilarbutdifferentrecoveryroute,notas strong as that of the DOW, despite a stronger economy in this region. To the dismayof most investors, the SSE Composite Index should have beaten its US counterpart, butwhenwe lookback today, it isnot thecase.Thismayhurt thosewhohaveover-invested,in anticipationof a rosegarden. If investors just leave their stakesunattendedwithout anobjectivemethodofreviewingit,thereisnoriskmanagementatall.

Risk management in securities investmentcantakemanydifferentwaysandlevels-thesimplestone is just tosetacut losspoint. Ifaportfoliohaddroppedone-tenth(10%)ofitsinitialvalue, itwouldneedmorethan10%tocatchup(table1).Ifastock’svaluedroppedby half, it would need to bounce anotherfold to recover. Therefore, it is imperativeto control the loss of a portfolio as early aspossible, particularly when no new fundingwillsubsequentlybeadded.

Loss Portfolio Gain- 1.0 -

10% 0.9 11.1%20% 0.8 25%30% 0.7 42.8%40% 0.6 66.6%50% 0.5 100%

Sophisticatedriskmanagementcanbeindicator-guidedfromtechnicalanalyseswhichallowinvestors to get into and exit themarket systematically.They should be a set of objective

rules which are easy but persistent to follow. Simulations indicate that certaintrend indicatorsenable investorstocapturethemarketsurgewhileprotect fromdownward trend - like the financial tsunami we had experienced before. Other19

The stockholding percentage of a particular index constituent group give investors animpressionof thecurrentmarketsentiment,andthusaguidelinewheremoneyflowshouldgo.Forexample,asthemarketrecoveredafterthe2008tsunami,stockholdingpercentageincreased significantly to a high level which was consistent with gradual and improvingindices performance.During the past 12months, themarket (particularly theCEI) rippledwithoutadominantdirection;stockholding%closeto themid-pointhintedmoreofa“wait-and-see” action and deterred from aggressive investment. This is also consistent with anincreasingly intense anti-inflation measures in the mainland, high oil prices, Middle EastpoliticalturmoilandtherecurringEuropeancreditconcerns,etc.

Summary : No one can predict what tomorrow is going to be like, there is nothing called100% risk free, but we need to reduce risks to an acceptably low level. Regardless, riskmanagement isneededeverywhere, includingyoursecurities investment,even in themostsimplestform.AstheChineseproverbsays-“tobevigilantinthepeacefultime”

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thanperformingriskmanagementonindividualstocks,investorsshouldalsopayattentiontotheratioofstockholding/cashintheirportfoliosandallowthemtobedynamic.Forexample,morestockholdingandlesscashbalanceduringgooddays,andviceversaotherwise.

Graph1showstherelationshipbetweentheHSI/CEIandthe stockholding ratio, based on 4 long-term technicalindicatorswithoutoptimizationand300HSCIconstituentstocks.Time framespans from thepre-tsunami (before2008),tsunami(2008),recovery(2009),andripple(2010andafter)period.

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