financial framework underpinning … · no further strategic imperatives following the acquisitions...
TRANSCRIPT
Antoine Castarède, Chief Financial Officer FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK UNDERPINNING DEVELOPMENT
Agenda
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3
4
Financial profile
Satellite business model
Investment process and required returns
Conclusions
1
Financial Profile
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Long term record of consistent growth
Good visibility and predictable cash-flows
Sound financial structure
Attractive shareholder returns
1
501
1 035
Long term record of consistent growth
4
750
1 476
CAGR: 7.0% 579
1 132
77.1%
76.7% CAGR: 6.9%
- 52
355
X2.1
67%
70%
EBITDA margin
As a % or revs.
FY 2015 FY 2005 FY 2015 FY 2005
FY 2015 FY 2006 FY 2015 FY 2005
EBITDA (€M)
REVENUE (€M)
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS (€M)
NET INCOME (€M)
Nota: Cash Flow from operations not available for FY 2005
High profitability and predictable cash-flows
5 Nota: Cash Capex from FY 2014 onwards as defined in financial outlook: including capital expenditures and payments under existing export credit facilities and under long-term lease agreements on third party capacity. Acquisitions (GE 23, stake in Hispasat, Satmex) are not included in Cash Capex
► Opex light and capex heavy
► Mainly fixed costs
► Operating leverage
HIGH PROFITABILITY PREDICTABLE CASH-FLOWS
77.5% 76.7% 76.7%
53.1% 46.2% 44.8%
27.6% 22.5% 24.1%
FY 13 FY 14 FY 15
EBITDA margin EBIT margin Net Margin
64% 58%
70%
30% 33% 33%
33% 24%
37%
FY 13 FY 14 FY 15
Operating Cash-flow Cash Capex Free Cash flow
CASH-FLOW AS A % OF REVENUE
Sound financial structure
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► Manageable debt levels thanks to steady cash-flow generation
► Investment grade ratings • S&P: BBB/ Stable • Moody’s: Baa3/Positive
► Strong liquidity • €420m cash • €650m of undrawn credit lines
NET DEBT / EBITDA
FY 15 FY 14
3.4x 3.5x1
FY 14
8.2x 7.8x
FY 15
EBITDA / COST OF DEBT
1Proforma for Satmex acquisition
Cost of debt decreasing…
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AVERAGE COST OF DEBT
4.9% 4.9% 4% 3.8%
FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15
► Proactive financial management
► Export credit facilities at attractive rates in FY 2013
► €930m bond in Dec 2013 at 2.625%
► Early renegotiation of term loan in 2015 • €15m savings per annum1 • Lower rate • Reduction in nominal from €800m to €600m • Full impact in FY 2016
1Excluding upfront fees and hedging instruments
…with scope for further improvement
8 1With two possible extension facilities of one year each subject to lenders agreement
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
4.125%
€850m
€450m
5.0%
€800m
2.625%
€930m
€600m1
€200m1
€46m 3.125%
€300m
€187m
€200m
€800m
Note: Maturities are provided on a calendar year basis – figures based on accounts as of 30 June 2015
3.125%
Bank debt Former debt renegotiated in early 2015 Undrawn lines of credit Bonds Others
Use of cash
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ORGANIC GROWTH
FINANCIAL STRUCTURE
SHAREHOLDER REMUNERATION
M&A
► Future satellite programmes meeting internal return criteria
► Target of Net Debt / EBITDA below 3.3x
► Maintain investment grade ratings
► Payout ratio of 65% to 75% of net income
► No further strategic imperatives following the acquisitions of GE-23 and Satmex
► Opportunistic approach based on value creation potential
Dividend track record
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► Consistent rise in dividend per share • Distribution of €19m one-off element in FY2013
► Distribution ratio based on net Income • Floor raised from 50% to 65% in 2012
► Scrip option offered in FY 2014 and FY 2015 • 66% take-up in FY 2014
DIVIDEND HISTORY SINCE LISTING
0.54 0.58 0.60 0.66
0.76
0.90 1.00
1.08 1.03
1.09
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
70 75 67 67 58 62 59 77 Payout ratio (%)
Distribution of an exceptional element in FY 2013
0.09
Agenda
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3
4
Financial profile
Satellite business model
Investment process and required returns
Conclusions
1
2
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Satellite economic model Regular capacity
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1For a greenfield satellite, using chemical propulsion
-3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
€m
Year
PROCUREMENT CONTRACT
BOARD DECISION LAUNCH
BOARD DECISION FOR
REPLACEMENT SAT
REPLACEMENT SAT ENTRY
INTO SERVICE
RELOCATION OF PREVIOUS SAT
END OF LIFE
ENTRY INTO SERVICE
Cumulative cash-flow
PROCUREMENT RAMP UP LIFE-SPAN
Satellite programme capex profile
13
TYPICAL TIMING OF CAPEX PAYMENTS
► Capex generally split equally over three years prior to launch
► Insurance paid in year three
BREAKDOWN OF CAPEX
30% 30% 40%
YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3
Launcher Insurance
Others
Satellite
Reducing capex, increased satellite size
14 1Chemical propulsion only
► Average capex per tpx of €4.2m in past 20 years, excluding insurance
► Decline in cost
► Increase in satellite size
COST PER TPX ON EUTELSAT SATELLITES LAUNCHED SINCE 19961
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Average: €4.2m - excluding insurance
Ramp-up Typical ramp-up profile for a regular capacity satellite
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► Ramp-up dependent on: • Mix of replacement vs. expansion • Region and application
► Pre-sales not the norm, but occur in fast-growing markets, and more common in Video
0%
30%
60%
90%
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y50%
30%
60%
90%
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y50%
30%
60%
90%
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5
Assumption: 50% pure replacement, 50% pure expansion
Pure replacement Pure expansion Mix of expansion and replacement
Pricing
16 Source: Eurconsult, 2015 Edition
► Average revenue per TPE of €1.5m/year on Eutelsat’s fleet (regular capacity) • Average of €3.8m on Hotbird
► Pricing dependent on region / application
3.2
1.5 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.3
2.4
1.4 1.3 1.7 1.5
WesternEurope
CentralEurope
Russia MENA SSA Southern Asia LATAM N.E Asia China S.E Asia Oceania NorthAmerica
Eutelsat footprint
MARKET AVERAGE REVENUE PER 36 MHZ TRANSPONDER (M$) FOR REGULAR CAPACITY
Agenda
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4
Financial profile
Satellite business model
Investment process and required returns
Conclusions
1
2
3
Satellite project investment process
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MARKET ANALYSIS
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
RISK ANALYSIS
TENDER OFFER FOR ALL COMPONENTS
ALL PROJECTS SUBJECT TO BOARD APPROVAL
► Regulatory and technical ► Contingency for launch failure ► Business plan sensitivity
► Minimum required IRR (unlevered) of 12% after tax ► NPV calculation based on WACC (dependent on specific project risk) ► Cash flow projected over the construction period and lifetime ► Terminal value based on perpetual cash-flow with adjusted replacement Capex
► Manufacturer ► Launcher ► Insurer
► Supply /demand balance ► Pricing
Improving capex efficiency Evolution of capex and capex/revenues
19 Nota: Capex including financial leases and ECA repayments from FY 2014 (included) onwards. Capex do not include external growth
(mainly acquisition of a GE-23 and additional stake in Hispasat in FY 2013, and acquisition of Satmex in FY 2014)
► Capital intensive business model
► Improving capex efficiency
231
350
423 417
494 486 488
387
451 493
29%
42% 48% 44% 47%
42% 40% 30% 33% 33%
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
Capex Capex as a % of revenues
Scope for further capex efficiency
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► Electrical propulsion for in-orbit raising • Lowers mass for a given capacity • Increases capacity for a given mass
► Extension in satellite lifetime • Potentially even longer with all-electric satellites
► Greater competitivity in launcher market
► More rigorous procurement process
► Further improvements to come
AVERAGE CAPEX PER TRANSPONDER
4.6 4.0
Launchedin 2010-2013
Launched in2014-2017
Average Capex per transponder / spotbeam (€m)
Excluding satellites operated in the framework of a financial lease
Replacement CAPEX
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HISTORICAL REPLACEMENT CAPEX NORMATIVE REPLACEMENT CAPEX
55% 45%
REPLACEMENT GROWTH
Based on FY 2010-11 to FY 2014-15 average
► Estimated replacement capex of c. €350m for fleet at the end of current deployment program
► Assumes • ~1,300 transponders / spotbeams at June 2017 • Capex per transponder of c.€4m • Satellite life of 18 years • Ground capex c. €60-70m p.a.
► Includes improvement related to electrical propulsion launcher competitiveness
Agenda
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Financial profile
Satellite business model
Investment process and required returns
Conclusions
1
2
3
4
To sum up:
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4.3
4.4
Topline growth
Optimised Capex, highly selective investment approach
High profitability, steady cash-flows
Conservatively managed balance sheet
Value creation and attractive return to shareholders
Q&A FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK UNDERPINNING DEVELOPMENT