financial mirror weekly digital edition

March 27 - April 2, 2013

2 | NEWS | financialmirror.com

Anastasiades: Bailout to benefit Cyprus, stronger bank President Nicos Anastasiades was confident that the agree-

ment reached with international lenders was the best possibledeal and that it was sustainable, despite efforts to curb theisland’s banking sector, a thorn in the side of German politi-cians.

“We have an agreement to the benefit of the people ofCyprus and the EU,” Anastasiades said in a brief statement inBrussels after overnight negotiations with the IMF and EU offi-cials that resulted in approval of a 10 bln euro bailout by theEurogroup of 17 eurozone finance ministers.

The plan will see the second largest lender, Popular LaikiBank, shutting down and its “good bank” assets and insured

deposits below 100,000 euros transferred to Bank of Cyprus,that will also undertake a debt of 9 bln euros in liquidity assis-tance provided to Laiki in recent months. The Bank of Cyprusmust raise own funds from shareholders for its recapitalisationwho will receive equity for a haircut on deposits over 100,000euros. “The country avoided default and has secured the futureof the next generations,” said Finance Minister Michalis Sarris,adding that “we have closed a long period of insecurity for theCyprus economy.”

“We have not only won the battle, but we have also avoidedany exit from the Eurozone. Our aim now is macroeconomicstability through a restructured banking sector, fiscal discipline

and reform. We will undergo sacrifices but our economy hasthe ability to restart.”

Anastasiades added in a televised address on Mondayevening that he will appoint a public inquiry to investigate thewhole crisis and those who caused it, while on an optimisticnote he said that after the takeover of Laiki by Bank of Cyprus,the new entity will be stronger.

His comments were echoed by Central Bank governorPanicos Demetriades who said that, “after this, Bank of Cypruswill have access from the eurosystem, not ELA but normalfinancing. The merger with Popular will give us a very strongbank.”

Ex-central bank chief lashes out at Europe

Europe has been condemned to economic disintegration as aresult of top policy makers’ “bullying” of Cyprus and “cavalierattitude” towards the expropriation of property, the island’sformer central bank governor who oversaw its entry to theeuro has warned.

“The European project is crashing to earth,” AthanasiosOrphanides told the Financial Times in an interview. “This isa fundamental change in the dynamics of Europe towards dis-integration and I don’t see how this can be reversed.”

His outspoken comments highlighted widespread alarm ateurozone leaders’ handling of the Cyprus crisis – including bythe European Central Bank and European Commission.

“I would have expected them to support the European proj-ect. I would have expected them to protect the citizens of thesmallest and weakest member states against discrimination.We have seen a cavalier attitude towards the expropriation ofproperty and the bullying of a people.”

This past week’s events had made “a mockery” of EUtreaties, he added. “It suggests that in Europe not all peopleare equal under the law.”

Mr Orphanides was governor of Cyprus’s central bank from

2008 until last year, when he was replaced after clashing withthe island’s then communist government. As member of theECB’s governing council, Mr Ophanides’s views were respect-ed because of his background as a senior economist at the USFederal Reserve. He has since returned to academic econom-ics in the US.

Mr Orphanides complained: “We have seen other eurozonecountries, the Netherlands, for instance, put national interestsahead of the European interest by trying to bring down theeconomic model of countries such as Cyprus orLuxembourg.”

He also called into question the credibility of the ECB’sthreat to pull the plug on the Cypriot banking system. OnThursday, the ECB had warned that if an EU-IMF rescue pro-gramme was not agreed by Monday, it would ban the use of“emergency liquidity assistance” to html” \o “Q&A: The ECBand Cyprus’s banks - FT.com” \t “_blank” .

According to Mr Orphanides, about €10bn of ELA is beingprovided via Europe’s Target2 payments system used by itscentral banks. “If you say it is no longer authorised, it wouldforce the Central Bank of Cyprus to default on its Target2 obli-gations. Cyprus would then have to leave the euro area.”

He went on: “The ECB will have forced Cyprus out. This isthe one thing Mario Draghi doesn’t want to happen – he doesnot want to be the ECB president who triggers the break-up ofthe euro. It is painful to watch.”

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Swiss regulator doesn’t planto curb Cyprus fund flows

Switzerland’s financial regulator has no plans to imposecurbs on possible inflows of money from Cyprus, which isleaking euros even as its banks remain closed.

“Currently, we don’t see any special requirementsregarding Cyprus or any other country beyond the generalrules governing what money Swiss banks are allowed toaccept,” said Patrick Raaflaub, head of Swiss financialregulator FINMA.

While Cyprus negotiated its EU bailout, large amounts ofeuros allegedly fled in the form of notes from cash machinesand exceptional transfers for “humanitarian supplies”,medicines and fuel, news reports claimed.

Capital controls to be“loose” but island-wide

Capital controls imposed to avert a bank run will be“loose” but will apply to all banks on the island, CentralBank Governor Panicos Demetriades said on Tuesday.

“We aim for some restrictions which, in the words of thepresident, will be loose,” the centralbanker said, adding thatthe measure would apply to all banks.

Demetriades said the restrictions would be “temporary”but would not say how long they would last. He saidauthorities were doing “all they could” to ensure banksreopen on Thursday after being closed for more than a week.

These past days I have come to realise why the mysticsput themselves under extreme physical and emotionalstress. It is because they start to make patterns, see things,hear things that make sense in some way that is light yearsbeyond our rational understanding but which speak straightto the core of our very human being.

Mystics use starvation, lack of sleep and aloneness. Ametaphorical version of the same thing in the modern worldis what is happening to us here in Cyprus: starved of cash,lack of sleep, and aloneness from Europe.

You will think I have finally gone mad; maybe I have. Buthere is what, after ten or more days of no sleep, little foodand aloneness from Europe, I see.

A very profound shift is taking place in Europe. It is said that the island of Cyprus came into being from

the collision of continental plates.

The vision of Aphrodite rising from the blue waves is themystic’s understanding ofthis.

Those plates are nowcracking form east to west,from north to south.

And the roar that comesfrom their gape is heardacross the globe.

The old beast had baredits teeth. And its weapon isfear.

Do not be afraid. Staycool. Stay calm. Look afterone another. Be prepared.Fiona Mullen

Be cool, look after one another, be prepared The old beast’s weapon is fear

By Ralph AtkinsFinancial Times

Administrator to run B0C,resignations rejected

The Central Bank of Cyprus has appointed a specialadministrator to run Bank of Cyprus which was saved fromcollapse by a painful bailout for the island agreed withinternational lenders on Sunday.

Dinos Christofides, an accountant and banker with close to40 years experience, told Reuters he had been appointed onMonday night, saying he would oversee “the restructuring ofthe bank and the absorption of part of Cyprus Popular Bank”.

Meanwhile, the resignation of Chairman Andreas Artemiswas rejected by the rest of the board on Tuesday, as were theresignations of board members Vassilis Rologis, Costas Severis,Anna Diogenous and Takis Arapoglou.


financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 3

Ten-point plan for euro exit (and Mrs Merkelkeeping the currency all to herself)

If we fall out of the euro, the Argentina crisis suggests thatthe new currency will fall by 75%. That means that our person-al and state debts will quadruple overnight, the value of our sav-ings will fall to a quarter of what they were, and the price ofimports will rocket.

It is still the worst of all scenarios. Cyprus depends for over 90%of its electricity on imported fuel oil. We don’t want another sum-mer with electricity cuts. And they would be longer this time.

But if the European Central Bank (ECB) and our “friends”in the Union have already decided to kick us out (see other arti-cle), we have to throw all rules out of the window and concen-trate on survival.

Here is my ten-point plan. It will annoy a Hell of a lot of peo-ple so I hope it never comes to this.

1. Since the ECB will have hung us out to try, tell the ECBwe will pay the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) moneyback at our own pace and on our own terms.

2. They won’t like it. It will be the first “Official Sector

Involvement (OSI) in the eurozone. They will sue big time. Sostep 2 is to hire some big shot US lawyers. It is important thatthey come from the US. They have no political skin in the game

and they can meet the beast with the Rottweiler. 3. Hire the Icelandic tweeter who knows how this went

down in Iceland and has lots of practical advice.4. Hold a bondholder meeting for a private-sector debt

restructuring deal that involves the assets of the banks, the sov-

ereign debt and some clever US/UK private-sector brains. 5. Very important: keep the Europeans and the IMF out of

its. If this scenario unfolds they are history (in more ways thanone). These are private-sector solutions. No politicians or offi-cials required.

6. Call on Cypriots to exercise restraint with cash with-drawals, buying up food stocks. We will have a much smallerpie to share so we cannot be greedy.

7. Return to the old Cyprus pound (CYP) model: capital con-trols for locals (residents); capital liberalisation under an off-shore model for the rest.

8. Hire the bright young Cypriots, of whom there are plen-ty, to map out the new growth model that does not depend onmoney whizzing in and out of Cyprus.

9. Introduce incentives for Israelis to invest in venture capi-tal, high-tech and solar power.

10. Real solar power production in every home. The currentsystem gives no reason to take part.

By Fiona MullenDirector, Sapienta Economics Ltd

Capital controls: gushing tap or drip, drip?

As I write this I do not know when the banks will openagain. And from the rapidly changing policies of the past 48hours it is clear that there is a big debate going on aboutcapital controls and how to handlethem.

Here I shall examine the argumentsfor and against.

I must attribute many of thesepoints to the twitter-brainstormingeconomists, mainly academics, who Itrust (I do still trust) will come out asthe clear heroes of this crisis, as well asother academics at the University ofCyprus.

There are many twitter superheroesof the Cyprus crisis. But for crisismanagement brainstorming, the firstthree names that come to mind areAlex Apostolides of EuropeanUniversity Cyprus (@alexapostolides),Faisal Islam, Economic editor ofChannel 4 news (@faisalislam) andHugo Dixon, “editor at large” ofReuters (@hugodixon).

And just in case you think thatCyprus has lost all its friends, if youhave a Twitter account, go to#Cyprusheroes. There are many of outthere them and my drumbeat of thankshas a long way to go.

The argument of principleThe argument in favour of opening

some or all of the banks as soon aspossible and allowing full free capital has two elements, oneof principle and one of psychology.

The one of principle is that capital controls breach of theEuropean Union treaties.

Article 26(2) of the Treaty on European Union states: “Theinternal market shall comprise an area without internalfrontiers in which the free movement of goods, persons,services and capital is ensured in accordance with theprovisions of the Treaties.”

So imposing capital controls is a breach of this article. But then there is Article 27, which reads as follows. “When drawing up its proposals with a view to achieving

the objectives set out in Article 26, the Commission shall takeinto account the extent of the effort that certain economies

showing differences in development will have to sustain forthe establishment of the internal market and it may proposeappropriate provisions.

If these provisions take the form of derogations, they mustbe of a temporary nature and must cause the least possibledisturbance to the functioning of the internal market.”

This is EU-speak for imposing capital controls. The key phrases here are: “may propose appropriate

provisions”, “temporary” and “least possible disturbance”. So they are allowed, but only for short periods and in

extreme circumstances. We are already in extreme circumstances, so we have

already passed that test. And with the banks closed, we have already imposed de

facto capital controls so we have already breached Article 26.

The matter of psychologyNow let’s deal with the matter of psychology. The argument in favour of opening the banks and

allowing full free movement of capital is that confidence hasalready been dealt a blow by the closure of the banks. Openthem again, but with strict conditions on the export of

capital, and you are sending a signal that all is still not wellin the financial system.

If we had endless Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA)from the European Central Bank (ECB) then that might bethe sensible thing to do. But it is not completely clear that wedo. Here’s why.

The Eurogroup statement on Monday said this: “TheGoverning Council of the ECB will provide liquidity to the

BoC in line with applicable rules.” As Apostolides noted, if “in line with

applicable rules” means that the rules onacceptable collateral remain strictly thesame as before, then we do not have anymore eligible capital left and effectively theECB has switched off the taps.

The only cash left in Cyprus is what isstill in the banks and under the mattress.

The ECB has been accused of playingpolitics this week. I suspect that, alongwith the March 25th deadline forswitching off the taps issued last week, thehistorians will use the “applicable rules”statement as evidence of the same.

Even while I write this, there isdisagreement from the experts on twitterabout whether or not the ECB will provideunlimited assistance or not.

As long as the ECB remains equivocalabout it, we have to move on theassumption that they will not providemore and therefore we have to imposecapital controls.

What do we do next?The next step is how to control the

inevitable outflow. Given the chance, all of the old

“offshore” money will go in 24 hours andwe will only be left with the “domestic”

currency in circulation. This could cripple the banks. So assuming that there is no unlimited ELA, we have only

one choice: let the offshore leave, but let it leave “siga siga”,a little at a time, so that we do not have an immediate cashcrunch.

There are many ideas for how to do this, which I won’t gointo here.

I just live in hope that the idea from Alex survives. It is an honourable way to do it, and would send the right

message to the people of Europe about how welcoming theCypriots really are.

@FionaMullenCY

By Fiona Mullen Director of Sapienta Economics


4 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com

Cyprus shows trust in ECB is misplacedEver since European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said

last July that the bank will do whatever it takes to preserve theeuro, complacency has pervaded Europe’s single-currency area.Markets have weathered potential crises in Italy and Spain withsurprising calm, secure in the knowledge that the ECB will savethe day if needed.

This was always a false assumption, as events in Cyprus havemade clear. There are significant limitations to the support theECB is willing or able to offer, even to such a tiny island economywhose needs are easily affordable.

The ECB relies on two primary mechanisms to help euro-areacountries in crisis. The first, emergency liquidity assistance, allowsa country’s banks to access cheap funding from their national cen-tral bank, even when all they have left is low- quality collateral thatdoesn’t meet the criteria for the ECB’s standard liquidity opera-tions. This emergency facility has helped a number of countriesmake it through liquidity squeezes over the past few years, keep-ing banks in Belgium, Greece and Ireland on life support since thebeginning of the crisis in 2008.

The ECB has kept Cypriot banks alive in this way, too, provid-ing about 9 bln euros of financing to date. The ECB threatened tocut Cyprus off, however, if a bailout deal wasn’t agreed on with theso-called troika of international creditors — the ECB, the IMF andthe European Commission — by March 26.

CAPITAL CONTROLS In response to the ECB’s threat, the Cypriot parliament passed

a bill on March 22, allowing for capital controls. Emergency ECBfunding would have plugged the gap in bank balance sheets creat-ed by deposit flight. Without this funding, deposit flight wouldhave to be stemmed by force of law to prevent the island’s banksand economy from imploding. This is a serious line for a euro-areacountry to cross: Capital controls are legal under extraordinary cir-

cumstances, but they go against the notion of freedom of goods,labour and capital that is the principle tenet of the European cur-rency union.

The second mechanism the ECB can use to support euro-areacountries is outright monetary transactions, the bond-buying pro-gram that it detailed in September. This facility has yet to be used,but its mere existence has caused borrowing costs for peripheraleuro-area countries to fall significantly. Consequently, these coun-

tries have already managed to sell 28 bln euros of bonds in 2013,roughly double the figure for the same period in 2012.

Despite this renewed confidence in euro-area governmentdebt, recent events in Cyprus have highlighted the bond-buyingprogram’s limitations — it can alleviate stress in the sovereign-bond markets, but that’s about it. Even if Cyprus met all the con-ditions to use the facility, that wouldn’t help the country avoid abanking and economic collapse.

Investors should have seen the limitations of the ECB’s inter-vention tools before the Cyprus bailout disaster. Sovereign bor-rowing costs have fallen, but as far as the real economy is con-cerned, most indicators released from a euro-area country in thepast six months have been worse than the last. This goes not justfor the weak countries but also for core countries, such asGermany. The outright-monetary-transactions program wasmeant to support the real economies of peripheral countries byallowing borrowing costs for businesses across the euro area toconverge. The opposite has happened. In January, borrowing

costs for small- and medium-sized enterprises in Spain and Italy— where such companies form the backbone of the economy —rose to 6% and 5.8%, respectively. At the same time, the cost ofborrowing for German small- and medium-sized companies fell,to 3.5%.

POLITICAL RISK Even if the ECB’s two special rescue mechanisms succeed in

improving and stabilizing the financial and economic environ-ment of a euro country in crisis, these tools are powerless toaddress political risk in the euro area. That’s a significant weak-ness, because political risk has repeatedly come to the forefrontof this crisis, as elected politicians seek to protect their owncountry’s interests in negotiations over who will end up payingfor the imbalances that have developed in a fundamentallyflawed monetary union.

Whatever happens in Cyprus is unlikely to ring the deathknell for the common currency. A chaotic default and exit fromthe euro area by such a tiny economy would be disruptive, butthe rest of the currency union would probably weather it. TheCyprus debacle has revealed, however, that the ECB isn’t a cure-all, and that investors’ trust in the willingness and ability of thecentral bank to “do whatever it takes” may be a big mistake.

If the ECB’s toolkit can’t save a country that accounts for 0.2%of the euro area’s gross domestic product, then how will it providemeaningful support when financial or fiscal difficulties emerge inlarger countries such as Spain and Italy? This question should bekeeping investors up at night, because it’s a given that such diffi-culties will arise — the only question is when.

Megan Greene is a Bloomberg View columnist and chiefeconomist at Maverick Intelligence. She is also a senior fellowat the Atlantic Council in Washington.

By Megan Greene

Cyprus rescue raises new questions about euro’s long-term survivall Bailout sets unsettling precedents for bonds, deposits with risk of widening north-south

divide over austerity vs solidarity

The messy deal to bail out Cyprus has averted the latest threatto the break-up of the euro but at the cost of raising new ques-tions about the single currency’s long-term viability.

Savers in other euro zone banks appear so far to be taking thefreezing of balances over 100,000 euros in Cyprus’s two biggestlenders in their stride. Perhaps they judge that events in a tiny,far-away island with outsize banks and a reliance on depositsfrom Russian oligarchs hold little relevance for them.

Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds held broadly on Monday,reflecting a belief that the European Central Bank’s promise tobuy struggling euro members’ bonds if need be - a programmeknown as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) - will prevent aspillover from Cyprus.

“This certainly plays into the hands of northern Europeancreditor countries, who have long taken the view that fears ofcontagion, in particular post-OMT, are wildly exaggerated,” saidNicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London.

“For the time being there is no contagion: the markets, right-ly or wrongly, still believe in the credibility and effectiveness ofthis bond-buying scheme.” Although big outflows from Italian orSpanish banks were unlikely, Spiro said the troika of the IMF, theEuropean Commission and the ECB had set a dangerous prece-dent by initially agreeing to tax Cypriot deposits below theEuropean Union’s 100,000 euro guarantee threshold.

European central bankers in private, and German banks inpublic, expressed confidence that the repercussions of Cyprus’sbailout would be contained. “The banking sector in the countrywas too large and did not have a sustainable business model.Cyprus should thus be regarded as a one-off case, and is thereforenot comparable with other European countries,” said AndreasSchmitz, president of the BdB association of German lenders.

But Lena Komileva, who runs the consultancy G+Economics in London, said the terms of Monday’s early-morningagreement in Brussels sent an unfortunate signal: a euro in abank in Cyprus is not equal to a euro elsewhere in the euro zone.

“This is... a systemically important deal for the future of theeuro zone banking union, or rather the lack of it, which carriesimplications for Spain in 2014,” Komileva said.

BOND BUYERS BEWAREThe bailout is also evidence of an increasingly hard line being

taken with bond holders in failed euro zone banks.Weeks after the Irish government agreed to repay guaranteed

debt in Anglo Irish Bank when it was liquidated, senior bondhold-ers in Popular Bank of Cyprus, also known as Laiki, will be wipedout, while those in Bank of Cyprus will have to make a contribu-tion, officials said. How big depositors and bond investors inother vulnerable euro zone banks would react post-Cyprus in the

event of a new shock thus becomes the latest ‘known unknown’in the four-year-old euro zone debt drama. The crisis in Greecefanned fears of contagion to the likes of Italy and Spain, touchingoff a deposit flight to safe-haven banks in Germany and otherhard-money northern European states.

The result has been a fragmentation of the money and bank-ing markets across the euro zone that the Cyprus bailout can onlyprolong and possibly intensify.

For example, despite the soothing effect of the ECB’s bond-buying pledge, the interest rate in January on new one-year busi-ness loans under 1 mln euros was 2.8% in Germany but 6.7% inPortugal.

The ECB’s declared priority is to repair the monetary policytransmission mechanism so that its easy-credit stance is diffusedto all 17 members of the euro, not just a few.

The policy has been working insofar as cash imbalancesbetween the north and the south of the single currency zone havegradually fallen since ECB President Mario Draghi promised lastsummer to do whatever it takes to save the euro - a pledge thatspawned the OMT programme.

The danger now is that this process will stall because of thespillover from Cyprus, keeping bank lending interest rates high

and thus deepening the recession in southern Europe.Speaking in Lisbon last week before the Cyprus deal was

struck, Portuguese economists and brokers expressed dismaythat euro zone policymakers were gambling with depositor con-fidence - even if Cyprus’s circumstances were special.

“The European Union should be aware of the risks thatperipheral countries are facing. Those responsible for decisionslike this one on Cyprus should think deeply about the probableconsequences,” said Paula Carvalho, chief economist at BPI bank.

GROWTH, AUSTERITY AND SOLIDARITYJoao de Deus, a senior sales trader with brokers Dif in Lisbon,

said there was no guarantee that the crisis in Cyprus would be thelast flare-up.

For some observers, the Cypriot solution feeds the perceptionacross the periphery that the German-led ‘Northern Alliance’ isdetermined to keep pressing for discipline and austerity in south-ern Europe, even at the risk of perpetuating a vicious cycle ofrecession, missed fiscal targets and more growth-sapping budgetcuts. The real contagion risk, therefore, is that the meltdown inCyprus, which is heading for a deep economic slump because ofthe destruction of its offshore banking industry, will fan a revoltagainst the hair-shirt policies demanded by the troika as the priceof providing a safety net for euro zone strugglers.

With the exception of Greece, protests in southern Europeagainst high unemployment and pension cuts have so far beenpeaceful. But resentment at what many see as a lack of solidarityfrom Germany is growing.

As such, Alastair Winter, chief economist at Daniel Stewart, aninvestment bank in London, said Cyprus might eventually cometo be seen as the second big step in the break-up of the euro, theculmination of five decades of ever-closer integration meant tobanish the spectre of another war on European soil.

The first step, he argued, was the rejection by a majority ofItalian voters in last month’s general election of the orthodox pre-scription of austerity. “They had duly noted that the peoples ofEurope, even if they no longer want to kill each other, are unwill-ing to help each other out in times of distress,” Winter told clients.

By Alan WheatleyGlobal Economics Correspondent, Reuters


financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 5

Rarely has a country had a more bruising week thanCyprus. As one commentator, Pawel Morski, memorably putit, ‘No human agency has achieved so much economicdestruction in such a short time without the use of weapons.’However, it was not just the direct financial fallout from thecrisis that has shocked Cypriots; it is the way in which theevents of the past week have forced them to re-evaluate theirunderstanding of their place in Europe and the world. Muchof what they thought they knew about their friends and allieshas been fundamentally challenged.

Perhaps the biggest shock for ordinary Cypriots has beenthe way in which the EU – or, perhaps more accurately, the17-member eurozone – has behaved. Although never perhapsthe most enthusiastic supporters of the European Union,polls taken this past week show that their trust in the EU hasbeen shattered. In particular, many in Cyprus were shockedand appalled by what they saw as German intransigence, ifnot vindictiveness, concerning their financial services sector.No matter what evidence they presented, it seemed asthough Berlin was fixed on the idea that Cyprus was a havenfor Russian mobsters and was determined either to makethem pay to fix the problem, or force the Cypriots to do so.This was unfair. Yes, there was dirty money on the island.However, it was not as much as was being claimed and, asCypriots were quick to point out, there is a lot elsewhere inthe EU. At the same time, a lot of Russian money in thebanks also came from legitimate sources. More to the point,it did not seem to matter that the proposals to tax depositswould also do a lot of damage to the many legitimate busi-nesses from other countries, as well as the many EU citizensliving on the island.

At the same time as being angry about Germany’s behav-iour, Greek Cypriots feel very let down by many of the othermembers of the Eurozone. In some cases, such as Finland, theylined up squarely behind Berlin. Meanwhile, others did not cometo their defence or support. It is telling just how many Cypriotsseem to feel that Greece should have done more to try to helpthem, especially as it was the overexposure of Cyprus’s banks toGreece that was at the very heart of the crisis the island faced.To be fair, given the problems Greece faces, there was not a lotthat Athens could have done. One of the few countries that didvoice support was Luxembourg. Undoubtedly concerned aboutattention being paid to the relative size of the banking sector tothe overall economy in Cyprus, a proportion that is much larg-er in Luxembourg, Jean Asselborrn, the foreign minister,warned Germany to take a more careful line towards smaller EUmembers.

ILL-INFORMED ON RUSSIAAnother key actor in this whole affair has been Russia. A lot

has been written about the relationship between Nicosia andMoscow. Much of it has been appallingly one sided, if not whol-ly ill-informed. Yes, it is true that the two countries have tradi-tionally enjoyed warm relations. This is not only based on theOrthodox ties, it is also shaped by the way in which the GreekCypriots have long seen Russia as a useful counterbalance towhat they perceive to be innate US and British favouritismtowards Turkey on the Cyprus Problem. This has served the

island well over the years. However, it is easy to make too muchof the relationship. It is especially worth remembering thatthere is also a strong groundswell of support for closer ties toNATO. Nicos Anastasiades, the new president, has spoken abouthis hope of steering Cyprus into Partnership for Peace (PfP)and, eventually, full membership of the organisation.Meanwhile, wilder predictions that Moscow was preparing to‘buy out’ Cyprus in order to infiltrate the EU were spectacular-ly torpedoed when the Russian Government announced that ithad no interest in taking over an ailing Cyprus bank, or bettingon the island’s as yet unproven energy reserves off its southerncoast. Moreover, any support it would give would have to bedone in conjunction with the EU.

Another significant development that took place last week,but one that probably went largely unnoticed in Cyprus, wasIsrael’s decision to apologise to Turkey over its May 2010 raid onthe Mavi Marmara, a ship that was on its way to deliver aid toGaza, which left nine Turkish citizens dead. The incident causedoutrage in Turkey and led to the freezing of what had once beenextremely cordial relations. In the meantime, Israel and Cyprushad been busy building up relations, leading many to argue thata new security axis was emerging in the Eastern Mediterraneanaround the discovery of deposits of natural gas off the southerncoast of Cyprus. That idea also looks to be in tatters now. Frominitial indications, it seems as though Turkey and Israel, withstrong US encouragement, are keen to put their relations backon track as soon as possible. The immediate result of this is thatIsrael is likely to drop, or at least scale back its willingness to

engage in joint energy exploration and exploitation projects withCyprus; especially after the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued astrong warning to the Cypriot Government about trying to useenergy reserves as collateral for any bailout agreement.

U.K. AN UNEXPECTED ALLY?Interestingly, the one country that comes out of this rather

better than many others is the United Kingdom. Relationsbetween Cyprus and Britain have not always been easy, largely asa result of the legacy of British colonial rule over the island, whichended in 1960. Indeed, some Cypriot politicians have evenreferred to the British as demons. And yet, behind the populistrhetoric, in day-to-day terms the two countries actually enjoyvery good working relations. As well as the large number ofBritish expatriates living in Cyprus, and the large Cypriot com-munity in Britain, the two share similar positions on a numberkey European issues. It is telling that, as the enormity of the sit-uation sank in, the British Government sent a team of senior civilservants with experience in dealing with the UK’s banking crisisto Cyprus to help formulate proposals for restructuring or clos-ing the island’s main banks. This relationship may well have beenfurther cemented by the events of this week; especially if Cyprusbecomes more avowedly Eurosceptic in its outlook.

The immediate task facing Cyprus is to try to start rebuild-ing their economy. However, Cypriots will also be asking them-selves many questions about the country’s foreign relations inthe aftermath of the crisis. The EU may have given them thesecurity versus Turkey that they always wanted, but that supporthas come at a very high price: perhaps too high in the minds ofmany. Meanwhile, it has been shown that while Russia has beena useful ally at times, its support is not as certain as many mayhave once liked to believe. All the while, hopes of developing newrelations in the Eastern Mediterranean have been destroyed asTurkey’s sheer size and significance has won out. For Cyprus, itis fair to say that just as their economic situation has changeddramatically over the past ten days, so has their understandingof their place in the geopolitical order of things.

James Ker-Lindsay is Eurobank Senior Research Fellow in the Politics of South East Europe at the European Institute,London School of Economics. He has written extensively on Cyprus. His books include The Cyprus Problem: WhatEveryone Needs to Know (OUP, 2011), The Government and Politics of Cyprus (Peter Lang, 2009, co-edited withHubert Faustmann), and An Island in Europe: The EU and the Transformation of Cyprus (I.B.Tauris, 2011, co-editedwith Fiona Mullen and Hubert Faustmann). He tweets@JamesKerLindsay

Crisis could undermine relations with key partners and alliesl Russia and Israel may scale back their involvement in the aftermath of the crisis

A Question of SovereigntyHenry Kissinger once asked : “Who do I call if I want to call

Europe”. Today he would find a ready answer, forget the EUand the European Parliament, call Berlin and more specificallyMrs. Merkel and Dr. Schauble. The focus in Cyprus these pastfew days has understandably been on the economy but eventshave also highlighted the astonishing loss of sovereignty whichcharacterises the new Europe.

Cyprus illustrates how little national governments matter inthe Euro zone. Mrs. Merkel and Dr. Schauble decreed that theCyprus economic model was not acceptable. The Cyprusbanking sector was too big and must be reduced (even thoughLuxembourg’s banking sector with 150 main banks is muchbigger and the resident population smaller). This goes waybeyond any previous intrusion into national affairs. No otherEuro zone country has been required to remodel itself anddestroy its main industry.

Intervention into national matters has been experienced bymuch of Southern Europe, Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal andnow Cyprus. Nothing of economic importance in thesecountries can be decided without considering if it will beapproved by the Troika. These same nations at one time oranother fought for their independence. Cyprus illustrates howlittle of that is left.

How did we get here? The European Union began as a

political organisation aimed at securing peace through apartnership of member countries. The Euro zone, comprised of17 members of the EU, is largely a financial organisationdedicated to the implementation and functioning of a singlecurrency. Even those critical of the single currency conceptfrom its inception did not anticipate its major flaw. As afinancial organisation with a financial objective, decision

making power will inevitably gravitate towards the country withthe strongest finances. Germany’s financial support isnecessary for all major decisions.

THE FRENCH CONNECTIONThis dominance was initially disguised during the early

years which established the European Union by thepartnership between France and Germany. Their joint

leadership of the EU was cemented after WWII when DeGaulle was the President of France and the French atomicbomb served as a bulwark against the Soviet Union. Today,the Soviet Union is gone. The French economy is in difficultyand so is the partnership. It is clear that Mr. Hollande, theFrench president has been marginalised. Germany makes thedecisions.

Unfortunately, these decisions have had very limitedsuccess. The sacrifices demanded of the Southern Europeancountries have been justified on the grounds of futureeconomic improvements if these countries only mend theirways. The improvements have not happened. TheMerkel/Schauble brand of austerity economics has broughtabout the greatest economic decline in Southern Europe sinceWorld War II. It has divided Europe into North (the lenders) andSouth (the borrowers). There is a further growing divisionbetween those members of the EU inside the Euro zone and theother 10 EU countries which have not joined.

Struggling with recession, the borrower countries havetended to overlook issues of sovereignty, even as their electedpolitical figures plead with the Troika on matters relating tothe governance of their own country. As the economicdownturn continues, they will increasingly be asking: “Has itbeen worth it?”

By James Ker-Lindsay

By Jim LeontiadesCyprus International Institute of Management

It has been a truly sad experience for me to watch thedramatic series of events unfolding in the last ten days herein Cyprus. Being Russian and having lived through a numberof crises in Russia before I moved to Cyprus eleven years ago,I thought I was well prepared to deal with the economicuncertainties of Europe.

After all, I vividly remember the empty shelves of thegrocery stores and the endless queues for bread at the end of1991 – right before the extremely painful transformation ofthe planned Soviet economy into the equivalent of the wildmarket capitalism. I have lived through the 1998 defaultwhen the Russian government devalued the ruble, refused topay domestic debt, and declared a moratorium on paymentto foreign creditors.

For simple Russians it meant losing almost all of oursavings due to massive bank closures and severe devaluation.The historical reports may say that Russia bounced back veryquickly from the 1998 crisis (largely due to the luck of thegrowing oil and gas prices), but believe me, the feelings ofdisappointment, anger, pessimism and negativity haveprevailed for years. This (and NOT money laundering!) is thebiggest reason why Russians try to get away from theirmotherland and prefer to keep their money in banks abroad.

Sadly, what I have seen in Cyprus in the last ten days felt

painfully familiar. It is almost incredible how in a matter of afew days the whole Cypriot society has been submerged intothe dangerous dark waters of gloom and uncertainty. Thefear of the soviet-expropriation-style tax to be imposed evenon small/insured depositors destroyed the trust of the locals,while foreign investors are cursing to stay away from our

banking sector once (or more like IF) they manage to recovertheir large deposits. Local businesses – both small and large- are outraged by the suddenly imposed deterioration of theeconomic climate. People are extremely worried about theirfuture. Nothing seems safe and secure anymore.

Last Friday, when the tension reached its peak, Iwitnessed desperate queues at ATMs and angry protests ofbank employees. I never thought I’d see such thingshappening here in Cyprus. Neither could I imagine myselfshopping for the double amount of food on Saturday andbeing approached by an American TV crew asking me whyfamilies are storing up on the food essentials and whether weare worried. The torturing uncertainty continued till theearly hours of Monday. Finally the Eurogroup reached theagreement with the Cyprus authorities. Now we keephearing that we should be happy that the immediatecatastrophe has been averted, and that the EU will help usthrough the collapse of our economy. Somehow I don’t seeany happy people around…

What I find incomprehensible is that this shock therapy ishappening in an EU country and it is not a mistake or

incompetence of local politicians but is a medicineprescribed by the EU, ECB and IMF who are supposed toprovide positive advice and whose ultimate mission is toensure economic stability of the Eurozone. One of myCypriot students commented last week: “My disappointmentis big… how people with MSc, PhDs, Nobel in Economics,made a mess with the Cyprus economy…” There is certainlyfault on the Cyprus side. Our politicians ignored theproblems for several years. It is obvious that the Cypruseconomy has many faults and has been in need of arestructuring for a while, but the barbarian methods ofeconomic destruction and political humiliation, which troikadid not hesitate to test out in the case of Cyprus, are reallyquestionable. In the end, these methods defy the wholepurpose of what it is all about, and we could even say thatthey undermine the very basic foundations of the EuropeanUnion.

Last year the EU received the Nobel Peace prize. To quotethe Nobel Prize committee, it was awarded to the EU because“for over six decades it contributed to the advancement ofpeace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights inEurope”. If there was a prize to the EU for the Cyprus case,it should read: “for the advancement of misery andconfrontation, poverty and national humiliation”.

However, I do not want to end on a pessimistic note (eventhat I am allowed because I am Russian). Let us hope that allsides involved in this nasty episode have learned valuablelessons. I believe in the capacity of people in Cyprus (bothCypriots and foreigners like myself who consider this islandas their home) to recover and bounce back. I also believe thatthe Cyprus case will serve as a wakeup call in Europe tosignal the inappropriateness of the troika methods – nomatter what “greater good” they advocate.

Olga Kandinskaia is Assistant Professor of Finance and Director of the MSc in Management Programme at the Cyprus International Institute of Management.

A lot has been said about the persona of someof the key figures of the Troika who have “pil-laged” our economy and desecrated our sover-eignty, but few have had the courage to say that“we had it coming.” It’s been a glorious twoweeks of every politician with a chip on hisshoulder getting ten minutes of fame onnational television, frustrating the public evenmore with uneducated guesses and vague sug-gestions. Few have suggested calm.

Naturally, everyone in Cyprus suffers fromthe after-event syndrome, whereby golden theo-ries are now available in abundance, rangingfrom returning to the good old pound to somemore drastic measures such as selling every-thing to the Russians and becoming aMediterranean Gulag.

Fortunately, what seems to have prevailedamong sane citizens has been the composed

views of a handful of academics and somemature politicians, the latter of whom wereobliged on several occasions to raise their voiceon air with the hope of drowning the insanity ofothers or making some narrow minded sup-porters of the disastrous previous administra-tion shut up.

Unfortunately, not only did we have it com-ing to us, we didn’t even see it coming when itwas smack in our face. IMF delegations hadbeen telling us for years that we needed toreduce our gross public sector deficit otherwisethe state would not be able to support the bank-ing sector in the case of default, one of the keyparameters of all rating agencies prior to issu-ing a downgrade. This has been the main prob-lem, while not a single politician has even men-tioned downsizing the civil service (and theirwages), with the occasional economist sayingthat we should perhaps keep pay at current lev-els in order to encourage growth and competi-tiveness. This means that everyone in Cyprus is

hoping that we will strike gold with the naturalgas explorations as soon as possible so that thepublic payroll remains intact and damn thepeople suffering in the private sector.

Had we dealt with our oversized public sectordeficit, we would not have any problem withour “oversized” banking sector, which is noteven a fraction of what Luxembourg has, andyet the GermanoFinDutch alliance does notdare mention the Duchy’s financial successes…for now.

On the other hand, had we not rejected thefirst Eurogroup bailout terms, we would neverhave heard the Dutch finance minister unveilthe dastardly plan to use Cyprus as a templatefor future bailout of troubled banks andeconomies, effectively splitting the Eurozonebetween North and South.

At least now, the general public has JeroenDijsselbloem to blame for everything (althoughhe deserves to), which takes some of the heatoff Angela Merkel.

EDITORIAL

With friends like Dijsselbloem, who needs enemies?

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6 | OPINION | financialmirror.com

Déjà vu all over again

BByy DDrr OOllggaa KKaannddiinnsskkaaiiaa

CIIM Business School

PRINCETON – The task was never going to be an easy one:impose losses worth about €5.8 bln ($7.5 bln) on lenders to theCypriot government and depositors with the country’s banks. Andnow that effort has led Europe to its latest impasse.

In marathon negotiations, the Cypriot government, under thesupervision of the troika (the European Commission, theEuropean Central Bank, and the IMF), agreed to a one-time “tax”on bank deposits. But, despite an amendment to exempt accountscontaining less than €20,000, the Cypriot parliament overwhelm-ingly rejected the plan, leaving Cyprus – and Europe – in limbo.

In fact, large depositors are not unlike senior bondholders, andthe proposed haircut was a small but welcome step forward. But,because it did not go far enough, a hole remained. There wereother options. Lee Buchheit, the veteran sovereign-debt attorneywho should have been in the negotiating room, and Mitu Gulatiof Duke University have proposed an elegant “reprofiling” ofCyprus’s €15 bln sovereign debt that would instantly reduce thefinancing pressure on the country. But such considerations wereoff the table well before the deliberations began.

Instead, the initial decision was to confiscate just under €3 blnfrom accounts containing less than €100,000 – the cutoff fordeposit insurance. Make no mistake: this would have been thegreatest policy error since the start of the financial crisis five yearsago. Indeed, the proposal amounted to a rupture with the near-universal agreement that small depositors should be consideredsacrosanct. After all, televised news footage of panicked depositorsin long lines outside banks and at ATMs can cause immeasurablefinancial damage far beyond a country’s borders.

Historians will argue whether forcing Lehman Brothers intobankruptcy in September 2008 precipitated the subsequent glob-al financial crisis. Vincent Reinhart, formerly of the US FederalReserve and now at Morgan Stanley, has argued that the Lehmandecision was correct (the error came earlier, with the bailout ofBear Stearns, which created an expectation that all banks would bebailed out). Private risks must be privately borne.

By contrast, the proposal to impose losses on small Cypriot

depositors had no redeeming justification whatsoever. As inIreland, the most vulnerable were being asked to take the hit, whilelarge depositors were let off lightly and other lenders were to bespared. But it gets worse.

There has never been an official explanation of why lenders toa sovereign should not share the pain, despite the “no bailout”principle on which the eurozone was founded. Most observers citethe authorities’ concern that if any sovereign does not honor itsdebts, all sovereign borrowers will be penalized. But such conta-gion risk is trivial compared to the wildfire that could be ignited byimposing losses on small depositors.

In mid-2007, Cyprus qualified for eurozone membership bymeeting the stringent Maastricht criteria, intended to ensure thatnew entrants would behave responsibly and flourish in the secureenvironment provided by the currency union. In the months lead-ing up to the decision, the IMF urged Cyprus to take all necessarysteps to ensure a favorable outcome.

The benefits of Cyprus’s adoption of the euro may never beclear. By 2009, the IMF’s Article IV Staff Report was already ring-ing the alarm bells. Public debt was still low, but growing rapidly;the current-account deficit was ballooning (reaching 15% of GDPin 2008); and the banks had gone Icelandic, with assets worthmore than three times Cyprus’s GDP. As the report noted, thehuge and highly concentrated banking sector’s problems could“quickly escalate to systemic proportions with serious economicrepercussions.” And so they have.

This is a remarkable outcome, given that the risks have been so

well known and understood. Indeed, the Cypriot authorities havebeen engaged in ongoing discussions with the troika for the pastyear. And yet, despite all of the preparation, a night of closed-doornegotiations led to a stunningly elementary error.

Compounding that error was the absence of any substantivedecision concerning how to extricate Cyprus from its downwardspiral. Cypriot debt, we are told, will rise to 140% of GDP, but willfall to about 100% of GDP in less than a decade. This appears to beanother replay of the Greek scenario, with targets for reducing thedebt burden repeatedly missed, until more drastic steps becomeinevitable.

Most important, no restructuring of Cypriot banks appearsimminent; on the contrary, the intent seems to be to keep largedepositors from fleeing and preserve the highly risky system. TheCentral Bank of Cyprus has provided large loans to Cypriot banksunder the Emergency Liquidity Assistance arrangement, implyingthat the collateral offered did not meet the standards of the ECB.More train wrecks are in the making.

The problems in Cyprus now threaten international financialstability. If the idea of a European banking union is serious, nowis the moment to advance it. That means reaffirming the commit-ment to deposit insurance, closing unviable banks, and recapital-izing the rest with European (not Cypriot) funds.

The troika’s decision on Cyprus was akin to policymaking byrolling the dice. The coming days will reveal the extent of theimmediate damage that it has caused. But, with another display ofreactive and ad hoc decision-making, we are no wiser about howEurope intends to resolve its dilemmas. Could the Cypriot setbackcatalyze a fresh start?

Ashoka Mody, a former mission chief for Germany and Ireland at the IMF, is currently Visiting Professor ofInternational Economic Policy at the Woodrow Wilson Schoolof Public and International Affairs, Princeton University.

© Project Syndicate, 2013.www.project-syndicate.org

Rolling the Dice in Cyprus


financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 7

By Ashoka ModyVisiting professor of International EconomicPolicy at the Woodrow Wilson School of Publicand International Affairs, Princeton University.

Cyprus should impose “Labour Solidarity Tax” to counter deepening recession

Following the Eurogroup agreement paving the way forthe brutal and speedy restructuring of Cyprus banks and theeconomy in general, which in the process averted a cata-strophic bankruptcy of the country, the government shouldimmediately proceed to impose a “Labour Solidarity Tax” tocounter the impact from the deepening recession.

It does not need a genius to realise that the impact fromthe 15-day bank closure, the freezing and deep haircut ofdeposits above EUR 100,000 at Bank of Cyprus and CyprusPopular Bank will have a major negative impact on the econ-omy and the government’s revenue targets will be missedbadly.

Cyprus’ €17.5 bln economy was officially forecast toshrink 3.5% this year. Everybody will agree that the blow toour financial sector, which accounts for about half of eco-nomic activity, combined with an existing credit squeeze,which will have a massive impact on the rest of the economy,will probably force GDP to decline by double the forecast to7% or even more.

We have seen how wrong the IMF has been in forecastingthe negative impact on the Greek economy from the auster-ity packages, which led to more cuts until Greece finallymanaged to balance its books.

Cyprus has already wasted precious time under the previ-ous administration and because of the stupidity of all ourpublic and private sector organisations that, throughout thetime when Troika representatives were meeting them to dis-cuss the state of the economy and their particular sectors, allthey were doing was drawing stupid “red lines” which crum-bled and were erased in seconds.

The fallout from the crisis may lead to a decline in GDP of10% this year and perhaps another 5%-7% in 2014, whichwhen combined with the decline sustained during the past twoyears, could take the overall GDP contraction to above 20%.

“Weaker GDP performance implies a higher debt-to-GDPburden,” noted ratings firm Standard & Poor’s. Last week,the firm cut Cyprus’s sovereign-debt rating a notch to triple-

C from triple-C-plus, saying it sees the economy now shrink-ing 6%, heightening the risk that Cyprus may not be able tomeet the terms set for the loan.

Similar to Greece, Cyprus is facing massive job losses, ris-ing business bankruptcies and a decline in tax revenue as aresult of the contraction. This means the forecasted revenuetargets in the budget will be missed and if we don’t takeaction from now (reduce government expenses) then thatwould lead to even harsher measures and once again stokefears about the island’s long-term future inside the eurozone.

Let’s not beat around the bush and think that the crisiswill somehow go away. The financial model and all our aspi-rations of becoming a financial centre have been damagedbeyond repair and with the deteriorating economic climate,

President Nicos Anastasiades needs to take action now.The most sensible thing would be for Anastasiades to

order a 10% additional cut in civil service and semi-govern-ment organisation salaries and a cap on pensions to make theextra savings.

The President may, however, be reluctant to imposegreater pain on the population, which is why I propose call-ing this a “Labour Solidarity Tax” which could also includeall those in the private sector earning more than EUR 2000monthly.

The tax would remain in force for as long as it takes untilthe country starts growing again and tax revenues climbhigher, allowing the government to eventually reduce orremove the tax. But if we don’t take action now, comeSeptember or December, the Troika will demand additionalcuts, which will only extend the misery into 2014 andbeyond.

President Anastasiades has shown courage and determi-nation in taking painful measures to restore confidence inthe economy and return this country to growth. He needs totake action on the fiscal imbalance now, rather than later.

[email protected]

(Eurivex is a Cyprus Investment Firm, authorized andregulated by CySEC, license #114/10 and approved by the CyprusStock Exchange to act as Nomad and by the Vienna StockExchange to act as Listing Agent for listings of shares, bonds andfunds. The views expressed above are personal and do not bindthe company and are subject to change without notice.)

Only 2180 Certified Public Accountants (from a total of 384,000 CPAs worldwide) have been able to obtain the qualification Certified inFinancial Forensics (CFF) and only 19 of them are outside the United States. Rakis Christoforou is the first Cypriot to get the CFF certifica-tion which is considered a vital tool for professionals to help in financial investigations and bring those who break the law to justice.

Are YOU certified in Financial Forensics?l A necessary tool to help conduct proper financial investigations

What’s so special, one may ask, about being the first Cypriotto get the CFF (Certified in Financial Forensics) certification?Well, it is not only important for me but also for our countryespecially after being accused of money laundering. This qualifi-cation gives me the opportunity to participate in conferences inthe US and elsewhere where I can meet with world experts andfind out about the latest developments in the fields of forensicaccounting and Business Valuations. The presence of a Cypriotprofessional in such conferences is, by itself, very important.

For a Cypriot, this certification creates added responsibility asthere are many things that need to change so that we (a)enhance controls in order to prevent and/or detect fraud andeconomic crimes and (b) manage, at last, to bring in front of thejustice system those involved in material fraudulent activities.

I have always aspired to get into the details of financialproblems that companies face and look behind the numbersto find out exactly what really happened. We must always tryto stay in touch with new developments if we truly want tobe competitive.

Forensic accounting, the latest development in the industry,involves the application of specialised knowledge and investiga-tive skills possessed by professional accountants to collect,analyse and evaluate evidential matter and to interpret and com-municate findings in the courtroom, boardroom or otherlegal/administrative venue. The focus of CFF is in the areas ofFinancial Statement Misrepresentation, Fraud PreventionDetection and Response, Economic Damages Calculations,Business Valuations, Bankruptcy Insolvency and Reorganization,Computer Forensic Analysis and even Family Law.

Forensic Accountants work closely with lawyers. It is impor-tant for the large companies and organisations to maintainforensic accountants in their workforce in order to apply theproper internal controls and at the same time in case of a fraudinstance they know how to react in order to protect evidentialmatter that may be needed in case of a court proceeding.

PREPARING FOR THE EXAMA candidate must study for many hours, almost daily, for a

year. I used to wake up at 5 in the morning and study for twohours before going to work and then the same after work, dur-ing weekends and holidays.

What really helped me pass the CFF exam was my in-depthknowledge of Business Valuation having already spent timepreparing for the ABV (Accredited in Business Valuation) examwhich was an exhaustive 7-hour exam that I had taken andpassed.

OBTAINING THE CFF QUALIFICATIONThese professional exams are only given in the U.S. and only

CPA members of AICPA are allowed to participate in theCredential program. A CFF candidate must also have 5 years’experience as a CPA, a minimum of 1000 hours of businessexperience in Forensic Accounting and an additional 75 hours offorensic accounting related CPE (Continuing ProfessionalEducation) credits that are gained after passing relevant exams.

The final exam is rigorous and lasts four hours. During thattime, candidates must answer 180 multiple choice questionsand relate to case studies.

The CFF Certification was first introduced in 2008 by theAICPA in order to help CPAs specialiSe in the area of forensicaccounting that became a hot issue after the economic scandalsthat shook the world.

THE USE IN CYPRUSThe government, large corporations and organisations need

to employ professional accountants holding the CFF certifica-tion and/or other experts in this field, including CFEs (CertifiedFraud Examiners) and CIAs (Certified Internal Auditors) to apply

the proper internal controls for companies and act as watchdogsagainst financial crimes. Now is the time to prove to foreignauthorities that we have professionals dedicated to fighting fraudand as a nation we are taking steps in that direction.

During the last 15 years we have experienced a number ofmajor scandals, but no one has been tried in court. These scan-dals have drained our economy. Without overseas help it isimpossible for our economy to survive. Economic scandals didoccur in many countries abroad but those responsible faced thelaw and most of them were convicted.

In government, as well as on the boards and the top manage-ment of many organisations, we see people in charge withoutrelevant education or expertise, probably because good corpo-rate governance is not properly applied in most cases. This couldbe one of the reasons why many public organisations and com-panies did not properly assess the forthcoming economic reces-sion even when the signs were clearly pointing to that direction.During this period, important and wrong decisions were takenand implemented by many organisations which raises the ques-tion whether such decisions were taken due to the greed ofsome of the leaders in charge of corporations and organisationsor simply because of ignorance.

Leaders need to have two qualities: ETHOS and KNOWL-EDGE. Ethos protects leaders from greediness, abuse of powerfor personal benefit, and helps them to treat their employees fair-ly and objectively. Knowledge helps them take the right decisionor seek support from those who have the knowledge. Leadersmust know that their power is temporary and only if they actfairly and wisely will they have the right to retain it.


8 | COMMENT | financialmirror.com

By Shavasb BohdjalianCertified Investment Advisor and CEO of Eurivex Ltd.

By Rakis Christoforou

SEMINARSOn Wednesday, March 27, Rakis Christoforou will be

giving an in-house seminar on Forensic Accounting tothe Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)and on Thursday at Cleopatra Hotel for the Institute ofCertified Public Accountants of Cyprus (ICPAC).

EB¢OMA¢IAIA OIKONOMIKH ¶√§π∆π∫∏ EºHMEPI¢A

www.financialmirror.comAÚ. 908 ∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 27 ª∞ƒ∆π√À, 2013

Στα άκρα âρίσκïνται ïι σøέσεις τïυΠρïέδρïυ της ∆ηµïκρατίας ΝίκïυΑναστασιάδη και τïυ ∆ιïικητή της ΚεντρικήςΤράπεúας Πανίκïυ ∆ηµητριάδη. Ùπως είµα-στε σε θέση να γνωρίúïυµε ï κ.Αναστασιάδης δήλωσε σε στενïύς συνεργά-τες τïυ Þτι νιώθει έντïνη απïγïήτευση γιατïυς øειρισµïύς ∆ηµητριάδη στην κρίση στïøρηµατïπιστωτικÞ σύστηµα απïδίδïνταςτïυ τεράστιες ευθύνες για την ïδυνηρή συµ-æωνία για την κυπριακή ïικïνïµία στï τελευ-ταίï Eurogroup.

ΑπÞτïκη της κακής σøέσης των δύïαντρών ήταν και η απÞæαση τïυ ΝίκïυΑναστασιάδη να πάρει µαúί τïυ στïEurogroup τïν Γιώργï Συρίøα Ανώτερï∆ιευθυντή της Κεντρικής Τράπεúας, στέλε-øïς πïυ απïδυνάµωσε σηµαντικά µε τηνανάληψη των καθηκÞντων τïυ ï κ.∆ηµητριάδης.

ΚαθÞλïυ τυøαία δεν ήταν και η απÞæασητïυ Πρïέδρïυ να διïρίσει πïινικÞ ανακριτήγια τï âïύρκï πïυ âρέθηκε η κυπριακή ïικï-νïµία, κίνηση πïυ κύκλïι κïντά στïΠρïεδρικÞ την ερµηνεύïυν ως µïøλÞ πίεσηςπρïς τï ∆ιïικητή για να υπïâάλει την παραί-τηση τïυ.

Ãι ίδιïι κύκλïι µας ανέæεραν Þτι σκιέςγια διάæïρïυς øειρισµïύς τïυ κ. ∆ηµητριάδηάæησε και ï ΥπïυργÞς Ãικïνïµικών ΜιøάληςΣαρρή µε απïκïρύæωµα τïυς πρÞσæατïυςδιïρισµïύς τïυ Ντίνïυ Ìριστïæίδη και τηςΆντρης Αντωνιάδïυ ως ειδικïύς διαøειριστέςστï σøέδιï αναδιάρθρωσης των ΤραπεúώνΚύπρïυ και Λαϊκής αντίστïιøα. ∆ηλαδή καλ-

λιεργείται παρÞµïιï κλίµα Þπως αυτÞ τïυτέως Πρïέδρïυ της ∆ηµïκρατίας ∆ηµήτρηÌριστÞæια και τïυ πρώην υπïυργïύÃικïνïµικών Ìαρίλαïυ Σταυράκη µε τïντέως ∆ιïικητή Αθανάσιï Ãρæανίδη Þπïυ ηέλλειψη συντïνισµïύ και ïι κακές σøέσεις

πïυ είøαν έæεραν την κυπριακή ïικïνïµίαστην τραγική εικÞνα τïυ σήµερα. Τï σίγïυρïείναι Þτι κ. Αναστασιάδης µε âάση τï σύνταγ-µα δεν µπïρεί να παύσει τïν κ. ∆ηµητριάδηπριν την ïλïκλήρωση της θητείας τïυ, µπï-ρεί ωστÞσï να τïν αναγκάσει να υπïâάλει

παραίτηση ώστε να διευκïλύνει τï έργï τïυ.Υπάρøει ωστÞσï η δυνατÞτητα για τρïπïπïί-ηση τïυ συντάγµατïς εάν αυτÞ πρώτα εγκρι-θεί απÞ τη Βïυλή, κίνηση ωστÞσï επικίνδυνηκαθώς θα απïδυνάµωνε τï θεσµÞ τïυ∆ιïικητή ως ανεêάρτητïυ.

Ã Νίκïς Αναστασιάδης εµæανίστηκε ενï-øληµένïς απÞ τη στάση τïυ ∆ιïικητή, ακÞµακαι πριν την εκλïγή τïυ στην πρïεδρία µεσηµείï καµπής τïυς άγνωστïυς Þρïυς εντï-λής των ερευνών της Alvarez & Marsal για τιςευθύνες των τραπεúών.

Ας µην êεøνάµε Þτι η Κεντρική κατηγïρή-θηκε επίσης και για «æïύσκωµα» τïυ πïσïύπïυ øρειάúïνται ïι κυπριακές τράπεúες γιατην ανακεæαλαιïπïίηση τïυς. Επίσης δενπέρασε απαρατήρητïς ï διïρισµÞς ΣπύρïυΣταυρινάκη στην θέση τïυ Υπïδιïικητή 13µέρες πριν την λήêη της θητείας τïυ ∆.ÌριστÞæια πïυ είøε πρïκαλέσει τÞτε τριγ-µïύς στις σøέσεις της αντιπïλίτευσης, νυνκυâέρνησης και της ∆ιïίκησης τηςΚεντρικής Τράπεúας.

Πάντως η πρÞσæατη απÞæαση τïυ∆ιïικητή, η ïπïία τελικά άρθηκε, να επιτρέ-ψει τη λειτïυργία των τραπεúών øωρίς περιï-ριστικά µέτρα, κατέστη η αιτία της νέαςκÞντρας µεταêύ κυâέρνησης και Κεντρικής.

Ã Πανίκïς ∆ηµητριάδης διïρίστηκε στηνθέση τïυ διïικητή της Κ.Τ, τï Μάιï τïυ 2012,λίγες âδïµάδες πριν την κρατικïπïίηση τηςΛαϊκής, απÞ τïν τÞτε πρÞεδρï ÌριστÞæια,αντικαθιστώντας τïν Αθανάσιï Ãρæανίδη. Τïσίγïυρï είναι πως Þπïυ υπάρøει καπνÞςυπάρøει και æωτιά.

∞Ó·ÛÙ·ÙÒÓÔ˘Ó Î·È ÚÔ‚ÏËÌ·Ù›˙Ô˘Ó ÔÈ ¯ÂÈÚÈÛÌÔ› ¢ËÌËÙÚÈ¿‰Ë

Μετά τïν επικεæαλή τïυ Eurogroup ΓερïύνΝτάισελµπλïυµ και τις απειλές για øρεïκïπία της Κύπρïυ,έντïνη είναι η αναστάτωση πïυ πρïκάλεσε øθες ï ∆ιïικητήςτης Κεντρικής Τράπεúας Πανίκïς ∆ηµητριάδης.

Ã κ. ∆ηµητριάδης âρέθηκε στï στÞøαστρï των υπαλλή-λων της Τράπεúας Κύπρïυ, µετά τï διάταγµα πïυ εêέδωσε ηΚεντρική στï ïπïίï γινÞταν αναæïρά για πώληση τηςΤράπεúας Κύπρïυ και στïν διïρισµÞ διαøειριστή.

Μετά την αναστάτωση πïυ πρïκλήθηκε ï κ. ∆ηµητριάδηςδήλωσε πως ïι ενέργειες πïυ κάνει η Κεντρική Τράπεúα απï-σκïπïύν στη διάσωση της Τράπεúας Κύπρïυ.

Τï επίµαøï διάταγµα πρïκάλεσε έντïνη αναστάτωση ανά-µεσα στïυς υπαλλήλïυς της Τράπεúας, ïι ïπïίïι úήτησαν τηνάµεση ανάκληση τïυ συγκεκριµένïυ διατάγµατïς.

Ãι διαδηλωτές επέδωσαν επιστïλή στïν διïικητή στηνïπïία ανέæεραν πως, ïι ïπïίες διαδικασίες γίνïνται µε τïπρÞσøηµα της επαναæïράς της εύρυθµης λειτïυργίας τηςΤράπεúας Κύπρïυ, κάθε άλλï παρά αυτÞ εêυπηρετïύν.

Ùπως υπïγραµµιúÞταν στην επιστïλή, η Τράπεúα Κύπρïυïδηγείται στην καταστρïæή και αυτÞ θα έøει ως απïτέλεσµατην πλήρη κατάρρευση της κυπριακής ïικïνïµίας.

Μετά απÞ αυτές τις εêελίêεις ï Πανίκïς ∆ηµητριάδηςσυγκάλεσε διάσκεψη Τύπïυ στην ïπïία τÞνισε πως στÞøïςτης Κεντρικής Τράπεúας είναι η δηµιïυργία µιας πïλύ ισøυρήςτράπεúας πïυ θα απïκτήσει πρÞσâαση στï ευρωσύστηµα, καιÞøι στïν ELA. «Η συγøώνευση µε τη Λαϊκή θα µας δώσει µιαπïλύ ισøυρή Τράπεúα», τÞνισε.

Απαντώντας σε ερώτηση, είπε Þτι δεν πρÞκειται να παραι-τηθεί και να συµâάλει στην επιδείνωση της κατάστασης τηςøώρας. «Τυγøάνω της εµπιστïσύνης της ΕΚΤ», ανέæερε øαρα-κτηριστικά.

Ã κ. ∆ηµητριάδης είπε Þτι καταâάλλïνται µεγάλες πρï-σπάθειες να ανïίêïυν ïι τράπεúες αύριï Πέµπτη και υπενθύ-µισε Þτι τï κïύρεµα των καταθέσεων στην Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ

θα είναι γύρω στï 40% ενώ ïι περιïρισµïί στην διακίνησηκεæαλαίων αναµένεται να είναι πρïσωρινïί.

Ã διïικητής, πïυ ανέλαâε τï Μάιï τïυ 2012, λίγες âδïµά-δες πριν την κρατικïπïίηση της Λαϊκής, âρίσκεται τï τελευ-ταίï διάστηµα στï επίκεντρï των επικρίσεων για την κατάστα-ση πïυ έøει δηµιïυργηθεί.

Ã κυâερνητικÞς εκπρÞσωπïς Ìρίστïς Στυλιανίδης αρνή-θηκε να απαντήσει ευθέως αν ï κ. ∆ηµητριάδης øαίρει τηςεµπιστïσύνης τïυ πρïέδρïυ, συµπληρώνïντας πως µε âάσητην απÞæαση τïυ Eurogroup, η διαδικασία πïυ αæïρά στηνΤράπεúα Κύπρïυ είναι εντελώς διαæïρετική απÞ τη διαδικασίαπïυ αæïρά στη Λαϊκή Τράπεúα.

Ã κ. Στυλιανίδης ανακïίνωσε επίσης την πρÞθεση τïυΠρïέδρïυ της ∆ηµïκρατίας Νίκïυ Αναστασιάδη για σύστασηερευνητικής επιτρïπής, η ïπïία θα αναúητήσει τυøÞν πïινι-κές, αστικές ή πïλιτικές ευθύνες για τη µεγάλη ïικïνïµικήτραγωδία πïυ έπληêε τïν τÞπï, Þπως είπε.

ΤÞνισε, επίσης, πως η Κυâέρνηση «δεν θα αæήσει πέτραπïυ δεν θα σηκώσει» πρïκειµένïυ να εντïπίσει τïυς υπαίτι-ïυς αυτής της πρωτïæανïύς τραγωδίας.

Ãυσιαστικά η Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ âρίσκεται πλέïν σε µία δια-δικασία εêυγίανσης, η ïπïία ακυρώνει την ύπαρêη τïυ διïικη-τικïύ συµâïυλίïυ και των µετÞøων της τράπεúας. Συνεπώς,µε τï «κïύρεµα» των καταθέσεων της Τράπεúας και την ανα-κεæαλαιïπïίηση της, ïι καταθέτες ïι ïπïίïι θα πάρïυν ωςαντιστάθµισµα µετïøές της Τράπεúας Κύπρïυ, µετατρέπïνταιστïυς νέïυς ιδιïκτήτες της τράπεúας.

Ã ΥπïυργÞς Ãικïνïµικών Μιøάλης Σαρρής διαâεâαίωσεπάντως Þτι η Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ έøει Þλες τις πρïϋπïθέσεις, ÞøιµÞνï για να επιâιώσει αλλά και για να πάει στα 200 øρÞνια λει-τïυργίας, να ενδυναµωθεί και να εêυπηρετήσει τïν Κύπριïκαταθέτη και τïν Κύπριï επιøειρηµατία.

Μιλώντας στην παρïυσία τïυ ∆ιïικητή της ΚεντρικήςΤράπεúας Πανίκïυ ∆ηµητριάδη και τïυ Υπïδιïικητή της ΚΤ

Σπύρïυ Σταυρινάκη, τÞσï ï ΥΠÃΙΚ Þσï και ï ∆ιïικητής της ΚΤανέæεραν Þτι ï διïρισµÞς διαøειριστή είναι µια êεøωριστή δια-δικασία πïυ ακïλïυθείται στην Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ και στη ΛαϊκήΤράπεúα. Ã κ. Σταυρινάκης είπε Þτι ï διïρισµÞς έøει ισøύ στηνΤράπεúα Κύπρïυ και συνίσταται πρώτιστïς στην διεκπεραίω-ση ανακεæαλαιïπïίησης της τράπεúας και στην απïρρÞæησητων εργασιών της Λαϊκής Τράπεúας. Σε κάθε περίπτωση η δια-δικασία της εêυγίανσης είναι πïλύ διαæïρετική απÞ τη διαδι-κασία της εκκαθάρισης πïυ ακïλïυθείται στην Λαϊκή Τράπεúα,πρÞσθεσε.

ªË ·Ô‰ÂÎÙ¤˜ 5 ·Ú·ÈÙ‹ÛÂÈ˜ Πέντε µέλη τïυ ∆ιïικητικïύ Συµâïυλίïυ της Τράπεúας

Κύπρïυ µεταêύ των ïπïίων και ï πρÞεδρïς, υπέâαλαν øθεςτις παραιτήσεις τïυς. Τï διïικητικÞ σώµα δεν απïδέøθηκε τιςπαραιτήσεις. Ãι πέντε πïυ υπέâαλαν τις παραιτήσεις τïυςείναι: Ανδρέας Αρτέµης (ΠρÞεδρïς), Βασίλης Γ. ΡïλÞγης(Μέλïς), Κώστας ·. Σεâέρης (Μέλïς), Άννα ∆ιïγένïυς(Μέλïς) και Τάκης Αράπïγλïυ (Μέλïς). Τï ∆ιïικητικÞΣυµâïύλιï δεν απεδέøθη τις παραιτήσεις. Σύµæωνα µε τïΚαταστατικÞ της εταιρείας ïι παραιτήσεις θα ισøύïυν µÞνïεæ’ Þσïν δεν απïσυρθïύν εντÞς µίας εâδïµάδας.

¡. ∞Ó·ÛÙ·ÛÈ¿‰Ë˜: ¶∞¡π∫√™ ÌÂ ¶·Ó›ÎÔ

27 ΜΑΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013 ÌΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓÃΡΑ

2 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

ŸŸÏÏ·· ÛÛÙÙËËÓÓ ¶¶ÂÂÈÈÚÚ··ÈÈÒÒ˜ ÌÌÂÂ €552255 ÂÂÎÎ.. Την υπïγραæή συµæωνίας για την απÞκτηση Þλων των

καταθέσεων, δανείων και καταστηµάτων στην Ελλάδα τηςΤράπεúας Κύπρïυ, της Cyprus Popular Bank (CPB) και τηςΕλληνικής Τράπεúας, συµπεριλαµâανïµένων των δανείωνκαι καταθέσεων των θυγατρικών τïυς στην Ελλάδα (leasing,factoring και Επενδυτική Τράπεúα Ελλάδïς-IBG), έναντισυνïλικïύ τιµήµατïς 524 εκ. ευρώ, ανακïίνωσε øθες ηΤράπεúα Πειραιώς. Η συµæωνία καταρτίσθηκε σε συνέøειαπρÞτασης πïυ υπέâαλε η Τράπεúα Πειραιώς για την εêαγï-ρά τïυ δικτύïυ καταστηµάτων και των δραστηριïτήτων τωντριών κυπριακών τραπεúών στην Ελλάδα, στï πλαίσιï σøετι-κής πρÞσκλησης πïυ απηύθυναν πρïς τις ελληνικές τράπε-úες η ελληνική κυâέρνηση, η Τράπεúα της Ελλάδïς και τïΤαµείï Ìρηµατïπιστωτικής ΣταθερÞτητας (ΤÌΣ).

Η συµæωνία διασæαλίúει τη σταθερÞτητα τïυ ελληνικïύτραπεúικïύ συστήµατïς, συνδράµει την Κύπρï στην αντιµε-

τώπιση της κρίσης και εêασæαλίúει τïυς καταθέτες, πελάτεςκαι υπαλλήλïυς των τριών κυπριακών τραπεúών στηνΕλλάδα µετά τις πρÞσæατες εêελίêεις.

Με την ενσωµάτωση των δραστηριïτήτων αυτών, τïσυνïλικÞ ενεργητικÞ τïυ Ãµίλïυ της Τράπεúας Πειραιώςανέρøεται σε 95 δις ευρώ µε 1.660 καταστήµατα και 24.000υπαλλήλïυς.

Με αυτή την εêέλιêη τα καταστήµατα των τριών κυπρια-κών τραπεúών στην Ελλάδα θα επαναλειτïυργήσïυν απÞσήµερα Τετάρτη, 27 Μαρτίïυ 2013 και Þλες ïι συναλλαγέςθα διενεργïύνται κανïνικά.

Υπενθυµίúεται τέλïς Þτι καταθέσεις πελατών των ελλη-νικών καταστηµάτων της Τράπεúας Κύπρïυ, της CyprusPopular Bank (CPB) και της Ελληνικής Τράπεúας δεν υπÞκει-νται σε ïπïιαδήπïτε έκτακτη εισæïρά ή “κïύρεµα” πïυ έøειαπïæασισθεί στην Κύπρï.

™™ÂÂÓÓ¿¿ÚÚÈÈÔÔ ÌÌÂÂÙÙ··ÊÊÔÔÚÚ¿¿˜ ÙÙˆÓÓ ÙÙ··ÌÌÂÂ››ˆÓÓ ÚÚÔÔÓÓÔÔ››··˜ Η µεταæïρά των ταµείων πρïνïίας στην «καλή Λαϊκή»

και µετέπειτα στην Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ ώστε να διασωθïύν,είναι ένα εκ των σεναρίων πïυ µελετάει η Κυâέρνηση Þπωςαναæέρει δηµïσίευµα τïυ ΚΥΠΕ.

Ùπως αναæέρθηκε στï ΚΥΠΕ απÞ αêιÞπιστη πηγή, ταταµεία πρïνïίας µπïρεί τÞτε να øρειαστεί να λάâïυν κάπïι-ες µετïøές σε αντάλλαγµα για µέρïς των κεæαλαίων τïυς,αλλά τïυλάøιστïν δεν θα παραµείνïυν στην «κακή Λαϊκή».

Απαντώντας σε ερώτηση κατά πÞσï η ΤρÞικα, υπÞ τηναίρεση της ïπïίας θα ήταν η ïπïιαδήπïτε διευθέτηση, θαµπïρïύσε να απïδεøθεί κάτι τέτïιï, η ίδια πηγή, ήταν κατα-æατική, λέγïντας Þτι είναι απÞ τα σενάρια πïυ âρίσκïνταιστï τραπέúι.

«Είναι απÞλυτα εæικτÞ», πρÞσθεσε.

Ùσïν αæïρά στï πρïσωπικÞ της Λαϊκής, Þπως αναæέρ-θηκε στï ΚΥΠΕ, απÞ τÞτε πïυ η Κυâέρνηση πρïøώρησε στηδιάσωση της Λαϊκής τï καλïκαίρι τïυ 2012, θα έπρεπε ναείøε υπάρêει σøεδιασµÞς για µείωση τïυ πρïσωπικïύ τηςτράπεúας, πράγµα πïυ δεν έγινε.

Σύµæωνα µε την ίδια πηγή, τï πρïσωπικÞ της Λαϊκήςπïυ θα ενσωµατωθεί στην ‘καλή Λαϊκή’ θα καταâληθεί πρï-σπάθεια να ενσωµατωθεί στην Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ.

ΑπÞ την άλλη, εκæράστηκε η εκτίµηση, πως τï πρïσωπι-κÞ πïυ θα παραµείνει στην ‘κακή Λαϊκή’, µπïρεί να έøει µιαπρïïπτική να συνεøιστεί η εργïδÞτησή τïυ για τïυλάøιστïνµερικά øρÞνια ωσÞτïυ η ‘κακή Λαϊκή’ κλείσει εν τέλει τιςπÞρτες της, Þπως έøει γίνει σε παρÞµïιες περιπτώσεις σεΕλλάδα και Βρετανία.

To πλαίσιï τïυ περί της επιâïλής πρïσω-ρινών περιïριστικών µέτρων στις συναλλα-γές σε περίπτωση έκτακτης ανάγκης νÞµïτïυ 2013 δηµïσιεύει σήµερα η FinancialMirror. Τï διάταγµα πρïâλέπει µέγιστï πïσÞανάληψης εâδïµαδιαίως σε κάθε πιστωτικÞίδρυµα ή τï ισÞπïσï σε êένï συνάλλαγµα.

Νïείται Þτι ïπïιïδήπïτε πïσÞ απÞ τïµέγιστï επιτρεπÞµενï δεν απïσυρθεί κατάτη διάρκεια εæαρµïγής τïυ διατάγµατïςµπïρεί να απïσυρθεί ανά πάσα στιγµή αργÞ-τερα. Τï διάταγµα απαγïρεύει επίσης ρητάτην ανάληψη µετρητών απÞ νïµικά πρÞσωπακαι την εêαργύρωση επιταγών αæïύ για τιςεπιταγές θα επιτρέπεται µÞνï κατάθεση σεειδικÞ λïγαριασµÞ. Απαγïρεύεται επίσηςκάθε πληρωµή ή και µεταæïρά øρηµάτωνµέσω øρεωστικής κάρτας ή και πιστωτικής ήκαι πρïπληρωµένης κάρτας µε εêαίρεση ανγίνεται πρïς λïγαριασµÞ στï ίδιï πιστωτικÞίδρυµα.

Η πιï σηµαντική απαγÞρευση αæïρά τις

øωρίς µετρητά πληρωµές ή µεταæïρά øρη-µάτων εκτÞς ∆ηµïκρατίας εκτÞς και ανδώσει εêαίρεση η Επιτρïπή πïυ έøει συστα-θεί µε âάση τï άρθρï 9 τïυ νÞµïυ.

Εêαίρεση µε âάση τï διάταγµα γιατί είναικάτι πïυ ενδιαæέρει øιλιάδες πïλίτες δίδεταιγια συναλλαγές πïυ αæïρïύν λïγικές πλη-ρωµές για τρÞæιµα, καύσιµα, æαρµακευτικάπρïϊÞντα καθώς και δίδακτρα και έêïδα δια-µïνής συγγενών πρώτïυ âαθµïύ κατïίκων∆ηµïκρατίας και ïπïιεσδήπïτε άλλες επεί-γïυσες και απαραίτητες πληρωµές.

Τώρα απÞ εκεί και πέρα τï διάταγµαπρïâλέπει απαγÞρευση τïυ τερµατισµïύκατάθεσης πρïθεσµίας πριν την καθïρισµέ-νη ηµερïµηνία λήêης.

ΩστÞσï πïσÞ τï ïπïίï θα καθïριστείµεταæέρεται κατά την επιλïγή τïυ καταθέ-τη σε τρεøïύµενï λïγαριασµÞ ή Þψεως ή σενέα κατάθεση πρïθεσµίας τïυ καταθέτηστï ίδιï πιστωτικÞ ίδρυµα. Για τï υπÞλïιπïπïσÞ η ηµερïµηνία λήêης της κατάθεσης

πρïθεσµίας µπïρεί να επεκταθεί απÞ 3-12µήνες.

Απαγïρεύεται επίσης η ïπïιαδήπïτεσυναλλαγή, πληρωµή ή και µεταæïρά µετα-êύ ενÞς πιστωτικïύ ιδρύµατïς και ïπïιασ-δήπïτε ïντÞτητας ανήκει στïν ίδιï ÙµιλïεκτÞς και αν εêασæαλιστεί πρïηγïύµενηέγκριση της Επιτρïπής.

Άλλï σηµείï πïυ αæïρά επίσης αρκετÞκÞσµï είναι η επιâïλή πλαæÞν για µεταæïράøαρτïνïµισµάτων σε ευρώ ή και σε êένïσυνάλλαγµα ανά æυσικÞ πρÞσωπï ανά ταêί-δι στï εêωτερικÞ εκτÞς και αν εêασæαλιστείειδική εêαίρεση απÞ την Επιτρïπή.

Μάλιστα διïρίúεται ï ∆ιευθυντήςΤελωνείων ως υπεύθυνïς για την υλïπïίη-ση τïυ µέτρïυ.

Σøετικά µε τις συναλλαγές πïυ εêαιρïύ-νται των περιïριστικών µέτρων αæïρïύνÞλα τα øρήµατα πïυ µεταæέρïνται απÞ τïεêωτερικÞ στην Κύπρï εκτÞς εάν αæïράµεταæïρά øρηµάτων απÞ τα υπïκαταστήµα-

τα των τραπεúών στï εêωτερικÞ.Επιτρέπεται επίσης η ανάληψη µετρη-

τών απÞ λïγαριασµÞ πïυ âρίσκεται στï εêω-τερικÞ µέσω πιστωτικής ή øρεωστικής κάρ-τας πïυ εκδÞθηκε απÞ êένï ίδρυµα και ηεêαργύρωση επιταγών πïυ εκδίδïνται επίλïγαριασµών πïυ âρίσκïνται σε êένα ιδρύ-µατα τïυ εêωτερικïύ.

Τï διάταγµα πρïâλέπει επίσης την υπï-øρέωση κάθε æυσικïύ πρïσώπïυ πïυ έøειτη συνήθη κατïικία στην Κύπρï και κάθενïµικïύ πρïσώπïυ πïυ έøει εγγεγραµµένïγραæείï στην Κύπρï να µεταæέρει στηνΚύπρï εντÞς δύï εâδïµάδων Þλα τα øρήµα-τα πïυ απïκτά απÞ εêαγωγές ή και απÞ τηνπώληση περιïυσιακών στïιøείων πïυ âρί-σκïνται εντÞς Κύπρïυ εκτÞς και εάν εêα-σæαλίσει πρïηγïυµένως έγκριση απÞ τηνΕπιτρïπή.

Τï διάταγµα θα έøει ισøύ µιας εâδïµά-δας µε δικαίωµα ανανέωσης απÞ τïνΥπïυργÞ Ãικïνïµικών Μιøάλη Σαρρή.

π‰Ô‡ Ù· ÂÚÈÔÚÈÛÙÈÎ¿ Ì¤ÙÚ· ÁÈ· Û˘Ó·ÏÏ·Á¤˜

ŒÚ¯ÂÙ·È ÙÔ ¢¡∆ ÁÈ· ÙÔ Í¤Ï˘Ì·Eικïσαµελές κλιµάκιï τïυ ∆ΝΤ âρίσκεται απÞ øθες

τï απÞγευµα στην Κύπρï µε στÞøï να αêιïλïγήσει ταπïρίσµατα των εκθέσεων της Moneyval και της KPMGΛïνδίνïυ Þσïν αæïρά στï êέπλυµα µαύρïυ øρήµατïςστην Κύπρï. Μoneyval και KPMG θα υπïâάλïυν νασηµειωθεί êεøωριστές εκθέσεις. Κυâέρνηση και επïπτι-κές αρøές εκæράúïυν πεπïίθηση Þτι ïι έρευνες θα κατα-δείêïυν Þτι κακώς έâαλλαν κατά την Κύπρïυ ïιΕυρωπαίïι εταίρïι της αæïύ εæαρµÞúεται πλήρως ηνïµïθεσίας στη øώρα στα πρÞτυπα διεθνών κανïνισµών.

AÎ‡ÚˆÛË ÙË˜ ¤ÎıÂÛË˜ SavenergyΛÞγω των τελευταίων εêελίêεων και τïυ αρνητικïύ

κλίµατïς πïυ επικρατεί στην αγïρά η ÃΕΒ απïæάσισεÞπως ïι εκθέσεις SAVENERGY & ENVIROTEC 2013 πïυήταν πρïγραµµατισµένες για τις 5-7 Απριλίïυ ακυρώνï-νται.

Νέα ηµερïµηνία πραγµατïπïίησης των εκθέσεωνκαθïρίστηκε τï Σαââατïκύριακï 20-22 Σεπτεµâρίïυ2013.

∫ÏÂÈÛÙ¤˜ ÔÈ ÙÚ¿Â˙Â˜ Με απÞæαση της Κεντρικής Τράπεúας της Κύπρïυ

Þλα τα τραπεúικά ιδρύµατα τïυ νησιïύ θα παραµείνïυνκλειστά και σήµερα Τετάρτη 27 Μαρτίïυ 2013.

Η Κεντρική Τράπεúα της Κύπρïυ αναίρεσε την τελευ-ταία στιγµή απÞæασή της, η ïπïία έλεγε Þτι ïι περισσÞ-τερες τράπεúες θα άνïιγαν εκ νέïυ την Τρίτη 26Μαρτίïυ,

Η Κεντρική Τράπεúα δήλωσε Þτι η απÞæαση αυτή ελή-æθη για να διασæαλιστεί η «ïµαλή λειτïυργία τïυ συνÞ-λïυ τïυ τραπεúικïύ συστήµατïς». Ãι τράπεúες πïυπαραµένïυν κλειστές απÞ τις 15 Μαρτίïυ αναµένεται ναανïίêïυν αύριï.

££¤¤ÏÏÔÔ˘ÓÓ ÙÙËËÓÓ ÏÏ››ÛÛÙÙ·· ÌÌÂÂ ÙÙÈÈ˜ ÂÂÎÎÚÚÔÔ¤¤˜ ÂÂ‰‰ÒÒ ÎÎ··ÈÈ ÙÙÒÒÚÚ··Επιστïλές στïν ∆ιïικητή της Κεντρικής Τράπεúας

Πανίκï ∆ηµητριάδη αλλά και στην ∆ιαøειρίστρια τηςΛαϊκής Αντρη Αντωνίïυ, απïστέλλïνται απÞ την ΕπιτρïπήΘεσµών της Βïυλής ώστε να δïθïύν στïιøεία για ταάτïµα πïυ πρïøώρησαν στην εκρïή καταθέσεων απÞΚύπρï και Ελλάδα.

Σε δηλώσεις µετά τï πέρας της øθεσινής συνεδρίας τηςΕπιτρïπής Θεσµών πïυ κράτησε πέραν των πέντε ωρών, ïΠρÞεδρïς της ∆ηµήτρης Συλλïύρης είπε Þτι «η Επιτρïπήεêετάúïντας τï θέµα, έøει δηµιïυργήσει µια εικÞνα πïυøρήúει περισσÞτερης πληρïæÞρησης και σε âάθïς απÞ τηνΚυâέρνηση αλλά και ταυτÞøρïνα διερεύνησης κατά πÞσïν ηΚυâέρνηση ήταν πληρïæïρηµένη - και η πρïηγïύµενη και ητωρινή - για πïλλά πράγµατα τα ïπïία ήταν σηµαντικά καιδηµιïύργησαν τï πρÞâληµα στï τραπεúιτικÞ σύστηµα καιιδιαίτερα στην Λαϊκή».

Σε αυτÞ τï στάδιï, σηµείωσε, για να γίνει σωστά η δïυ-λειά µας δεν πρέπει να πïύµε περισσÞτερα ïύτε να υπïσøε-θïύµε τίπïτα πέραν τïυ Þτι θα πρïσπαθήσïυµε να âρïύµετην πραγµατική αλήθεια έστω και εκ των υστέρων.

Με την επιστïλή πρïς τï ∆ιïικητή της Κεντρικής

Τράπεúας, η Επιτρïπή Θεσµών úητά Þπως τεθεί ï κατάλïγïςτων πρïσώπων πïυ έøïυν µεταæέρει øρήµατα εκτÞςΚύπρïυ τη øρïνική περίïδï πριν τις 15 Μαρτίïυ.

Ã Επίτρïπïς Πρïστασίας Πρïσωπικών ∆εδïµένωνΓιάννης ∆ανιηλίδης, ερωτïύµενïς σøετικά απÞ τα µέλη τηςΕπιτρïπής Θεσµών, είπε πως η δηµïσιïπïίηση τïυ καταλÞ-γïυ των πρïσώπων αυτών είναι θέµα τïυ ∆ιïικητή τηςΚεντρικής Τράπεúας να απïæασίσει αλλά έøει υπïøρέωση νατïν στείλει στην Βïυλή, η ïπïία θα τα διαøειριστεί Þπωςνïµίúει καλύτερα.

Ã κ. Συλλïύρης úήτησε Þπως τα στïιøεία απÞ τïν∆ιïικητή της Κεντρικής Τράπεúας σταλïύν επειγÞντως.

ΑυτÞ πïυ έκανε ιδιαίτερη αίσθηση στα µέλη τηςΕπιτρïπής Θεσµών, ήταν η απïκάλυψη απÞ τïν ΠρÞεδρïτïυ ∆ιïικητικïύ Συµâïυλίïυ της Λαϊκής Ανδρέα Φιλίππïυ,Þτι αν δεν γινÞταν απïθυγατρïπïίηση των Ελλαδικών εργα-σιών – πïυ ενέκρινε και η Κεντρική Τράπεúα - η Λαϊκή θαγλύτωνε 5 δις. ευρώ.

Είπε ακÞµη Þτι στïιøεία υπάρøïυν και στην Κύπρï καιΕλλάδα, αλλά αν η Τράπεúα πωληθεί δεν θα µπïρïύν ναδïθïύν.

Επ’ ευκαιρίας της επετείïυ τïυ θανάτïυ τïυ ΕυαγÞραΠαλληκαρίδη και σε σøέση µε την κατïικία πïυ γεννήθηκε καιµεγάλωσε, âρεθήκαµε πρï διλήµµατïς στην απαλλïτρίωσηαυτής της κατïικίας (για µετατρïπή της σε Μïυσείï) σε δικα-στική διαµάøη πïυ αæïρïύσε την αêία της.

Η δική µας θέση Þσïν αæïρά τï ύψïς της απïúηµίωσηςδεν διέæερε ïυσιαστικά απÞ εκείνη της πρïσæïράς τïυΚτηµατïλïγίïυ ως γη και κτίρια. Στην δική µας Þµως εκτίµησηπρïσθέσαµε και ένα ελάøιστï πïσïστÞ 20% επαύêηση/υπερα-êία λÞγω της ιστïρικής σηµασίας τïυ κτιρίïυ. Θέσαµε λïιπÞντï ερώτηµα στï ∆ικαστήριï εάν ιστïρικά κτίρια ή κτίρια µειστïρία έøïυν µια υπεραêία. Ως παράδειγµα παραθέσαµε τïερώτηµα τι είναι η αêία της κατïικίας τïυ Μακαρίïυ στηνΠαναγιά; Θα τï πρïσέγγιúε κάπïιïς ως µια «σκέτη» κατïικίατïυ øωριïύ ή µήπως κάπïιïς τρίτïς είτε ιδιώτης είτε σωµα-τεία/ïργανώσεις θα ήταν διατεθειµένïι να αυêήσïυν την τιµήπρïσæïράς λÞγω αυτïύ τïυ δεδïµένïυ; Θέσαµε επίσης τïερώτηµα γιατί η σïυίτα τïυ Churchill στï êενïδïøείï ClaridgeÞπïυ úïύσε εκεί κατά την διάρκεια τïυ Β’ παγκïσµίïυ πïλέ-

µïυ, έøει µια εêαιρετικά ψηλή úήτηση και µάλιστα λειτïυργείκαι ως µïυσείï για τïυρίστες/επισκέπτες µε ανάλïγη øρέωση;Θέσαµε επίσης τï ερώτηµα γιατί ένα αρøαίï «αγγείï» να έøειµια αêία πέραν ενÞς αγγείïυ πïυ θα µπïρïύσε να αγïράσεικάπïιïς απÞ ένα σύνηθες εργαστήριï αγγειïπλαστικής;Υπïâάλαµε επίσης εάν π.ø. ï Κïύλας (τï Κάστρï στï ΚïλÞσσι)επωλείτï και δίπλα υπήρøε ένα νεÞκτιστï παρÞµïιï κάστρïπωλείτï, πïιï θα έøει την πιï ψηλή úήτηση;

Εκεί πïυ είδαµε κάπïιï æως στην σήραγγα να πείσïυµε τï∆ικαστήριï για τις δικές µας θέσεις, êαæνικά και τελείως αψυ-øïλÞγητα, ïι νέïι ιδιïκτήτες της κατïικίας (Þøι της ïικïγένει-ας Παλληκαρίδη), αναæέρθηκαν στην δική τïυς µαρτυρία Þτι η«κατïικία είναι ένα παλιÞπραµα».

Στï τέλïς συµâιâαστήκαµε, αλλά øάθηκε η ευκαιρία ναπαρθεί µια απÞæαση επί τέτïιïυ ενδιαæέρïντïς θέµατïς,έστω και εάν αυτή η απÞæαση θα ήταν σε ΕπαρøιακÞ∆ικαστήριï. Κρίµα.

Τï θέµα Þµως παραµένει και είναι ιδιαίτερα ενδιαæέρïνδιÞτι άπτεται και πïλλών άλλων θεµάτων πïυ αæïρïύν κτίριαµε ιστïρία, είτε πρïσωπική, είτε αρøιτεκτïνική είτε άλλως πως.

Επίσης τï ερώτηµα πïυ τίθεται είναι τι πïσïστÞ υπεραêίαςθα πρέπει να υιïθετηθεί εάν ένα ∆ικαστήριï απïδεøθεί τηνπιï πάνω âάση (Þτι δηλαδή κτίρια µε ιστïρία έøïυν µια υπερα-êία); Είναι θέµα γνώµης και επιøειρηµατικÞτητας µε ιδιαίτερηâαρύτητα ασæαλώς στην άπïψη τïυ ∆ικαστηρίïυ. Είµεθα τηςάπïψης Þτι δεν µπïρεί να υπάρêει ένα σταθερÞ πïσïστÞ υπε-ραêίας και αυτÞ θα πρέπει να αντιµετωπίúεται ανάλïγα µε την«ιστïρικÞτητα» τïυ κτιρίïυ. ΄Ισως στï πιï πάνω παράδειγµα

της κατïικίας Μακαρίïυ τï πïσïστÞ να είναι +100%, η άπïψηµας για την κατïικία Παλληκαρίδη 20% και ï αøερώνας τïυΛιïπετρίïυ 50% κλπ. ΑπÞ την άλλη, γιατί τï αρøαίï αγγείï ναπωλείται έστω 20 æïρές πιï ψηλά απÞ τï κÞστïς ενÞς και-νïύργιïυ (δεν είναι ï µÞνïς λÞγïς, η ιστïρικÞτητα τïυ, πïυτïυ πρïσθέτει µια υπεραêία;).

Ασæαλώς στï τέλïς της ηµέρας είναι τï θέµα πρïσæïράςκαι úήτησης και τïύτï Þøι διÞτι υπάρøει υπέρµετρη ή ακÞµαελάøιστη πρïσæïρά τέτïιων κτιρίων Þπως είναι και η περιïρι-σµένη µεν αλλά υπαρκτή úήτηση. Πιστεύïυµε Þτι στï στάδιïαυτÞ πïυ υπάρøïυν κάπïιïι ενδιαæερÞµενïι της γενιάς τïυ1950-1960 και/ή λάτρεις της αρøαιïλïγίας µε τα ανάλïγασωµατεία, η úήτηση είναι υπαρκτή. ∆ύσκïλï τï εγøείρηµα τηςυπïστήριêης ή της απÞρριψης τέτïιας πρïσέγγισης διÞτι,ίσως, η âάση να είναι µάλλïν θεωρητική/ πρïσωπική απÞ τηνευρύτερη úήτηση της αγïράς.

Ανταλλαγή Εκκλησιαστικής ΓηςΣε ένα τελείως διαæïρετικÞ θέµα πληρïæïρηθήκαµε

µέσω τïυ τύπïυ Þτι θα γίνει µεταâίâαση εκκλησιαστικής γηςστï Κράτïς για µια συµæωνία πïυ έγινε πρï ετών για την πλη-ρωµή των ιερέων.

Είµεθα της άπïψης Þτι, ως έøει σήµερα τï σύνταγµα, δενµπïρεί να απαλλïτριωθεί εκκλησιαστική γη (Þπως ïύτε γη τïυΕæκαæ). Ως εκ τïύτïυ και εάν γίνει αυτή η µεταâίâαση στις Τ/Κπεριïøές, ïι κατïøικές δυνάµεις δεν θα έøïυν καν αυτÞ τïνπεριïρισµÞ στην κατάσøεση/απαλλïτρίωση της µέøρι τώραεκκλησιαστικής γης.

∞∞ÓÓÙÙÒÒÓÓËË˜ §§ÔÔ˚˙ÔÔ˘∞ÓÙÒÓË˜ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿ÙÂ˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘ÍË˜

∫Ù›ÚÈÔ ÌÂ ÈÛÙÔÚ›· = ÀÂÚ·Í›·;

27 ΜΑΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013

financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 3

ÌΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓÃΡΑ

ÃÚÈÛÙÔÊ›‰Ë˜ Î·È ∞ÓÙˆÓÈ¿‰Ô˘ ÂÈ‰ÈÎÔ› ‰È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ÁÈ· ∫‡ÚÔ˘ Î·È §·˚Î‹

Η Κεντρική Τράπεúα της Κύπρïυ Þπως ανακïίνωσε σταπλαίσια των αρµïδιïτήτων της ως Αρøή Εêυγίανσης, πρïøώ-ρησε στïν διïρισµÞ τïυ Ντίνï Ìριστïæίδη ως Ειδικïύ∆ιαøειριστή για την εκτέλεση των µέτρων εêυγίανσης στηνΤράπεúα Κύπρïυ.

Ã κ. Ìριστïæίδης είναι Fellow Member τïυ Institute ofChartered Accountants in England and Wales και Fellow

Member τïυ Chartered Institute of Bankers, µε 9 øρÞνια εµπει-ρίας σε διεθνείς εταιρείες λïγιστών και 32 øρÞνια εµπειρίαςσε δύï διεθνείς τράπεúες στην Κύπρï.

Στï µεταêύ, η Κεντρική Τράπεúα είøε, επίσης, ανακïινώσει,Þτι, στï πλαίσιï των αρµïδιïτήτων της ως Αρøή Εêυγίανσης,έøει διïρίσει την Άντρη Αντωνιάδïυ ως την Ειδική∆ιαøειρίστρια για την εκτέλεση των µέτρων εêυγίανσης στη

Λαϊκή Τράπεúα.Η κ. Αντωνιάδïυ είναι µέλïς τïυ Ινστιτïύτïυ Ãρκωτών

Λïγιστών (Institute of Certified Chartered Accountants) µε 28øρÞνια εµπειρία στïν τραπεúικÞ τïµέα, εκ των ïπïίων 25 øρÞ-νια στην HSBC, τα τελευταία πέντε øρÞνια ως ∆ιευθύνïνταςΣύµâïυλïς και τρία øρÞνια ως Γενική ∆ιευθύντρια στηνΕθνική Τράπεúα της Ελλάδïς (Κύπρïυ).

∂ÓÙÔÏ‹ ÁÈ· ·Ó·‰È¿ÚıÚˆÛË ÙÔ˘ ‰·ÓÂ›Ô˘¤‰ˆÛÂ Ô ¶Ô‡ÙÈÓ

Ã Ρώσïς ΠρÞεδρïς Βλαντιµίρ Πïύτιν έδωσε εντïλή στην κυâέρνησή τïυ ναδιαπραγµατευτεί την αναδιάρθρωση τïυ υæιστάµενïυ ρωσικïύ δανείïυ διάσω-σης πρïς την Κύπρï, δήλωσε ï εκπρÞσωπïς τïυ Ρώσïυ Πρïέδρïυ ΝτµίτριΠεσκÞæ

H δήλωση αυτή σηµατïδïτεί την υπïστήριêη της ΜÞσøας στην ευρωπαϊκήσυµæωνία διάσωσης των 10 δις ευρώ για την Κύπρï πïυ επιτεύøθηκε κατά τηδιάρκεια τïυ Σαââατïκύριακïυ, παρά τις ανησυøίες Þτι ïι Ρώσïι καταθέτεςστην Κύπρï θα υπïστïύν úηµιές ως απïτέλεσµα αυτής της συµæωνίας.

Η Κύπρïς είøε úητήσει την επιµήκυνση τïυ υæιστάµενïυ ρωσικïύ δανείïυύψïυς 2,5 δις ευρώ και µείωση τïυ επιτïκίïυ σε 2,5% απÞ 4,5%.

Ãι συνïµιλίες την περασµένη εâδïµάδα δεν κατέστη δυνατÞν να ïδηγηθïύνσε συµæωνία Þσïν αæïρά την αναδιάρθρωση τïυ δανείïυ.

Είναι σηµαντικÞ τï Þτι η συµæωνία για την Κύπρï «πρï-στατεύει πλήρως τïυς ασæαλισµένïυς καταθέτες και ανακε-æαλαιïπïιεί τις τράπεúες πïυ αντιµετωπίúïυν πρïâλήµατα»,ανέæερε ï εκπρÞσωπïς τï Λευκïύ Ãίκïυ, Τúïς Έρνεστ, Þτανρωτήθηκε για τη θέση της αµερικανικής Κυâέρνησης στïκïύρεµα καταθετών µε øρήµατα άνω των 100.000 ευρώ.

Ã εκπρÞσωπïς είπε Þτι καθώς η αµερικανική Κυâέρνηση

στάθηκε στï πλευρÞ των εταίρων στην Ευρώπη, ïι ïπïίïιδιαøειρίúïνταν τα θέµατα øρηµατïπιστωτικής αστάθειας, «ïιανώτερïι αêιωµατïύøïι τïυ αµερικανικïύ υπïυργείïυÃικïνïµικών ήταν τï σηµείï αναæïράς των επαæών τωνσυναδέλæων τïυς». «Ã ΠρÞεδρïς µίλησε για τις επιπτώσειςπïυ είøε αυτή η αστάθεια τïυ øρηµατïπιστωτικïύ συστήµα-τïς της Ευρώπης στην Αµερικανική ïικïνïµία. Για τï λÞγï

αυτÞ είøαµε εµπλïκή, επιøειρώντας να âïηθήσïυµε τïυςΕυρωπαίïυς να τï λύσïυν».

Ã κ. Έρνεστ είπε Þτι δεν είøε να αναæέρει κάπïιες τηλε-æωνικές επικïινωνίες τïυ Πρïέδρïυ Ãµπάµα µε Ευρωπαίïυςηγέτες, µετά τη συµæωνία, ωστÞσï γνωρίúει Þτι αριθµÞςαêιωµατïύøων τïυ υπïυργείïυ Ãικïνïµικών ήλθαν σε επαæήµε ïµïλÞγïυς τïυς.

∏¶∞: ™ËÌ·ÓÙÈÎ‹ Ë ÚÔÛÙ·Û›· ÙˆÓ ·ÛÊ·ÏÈÛÌ¤ÓˆÓ Î·Ù·ıÂÙÒÓ

∫ÏÂÈÛÙfi ·Ú·Ì¤ÓÂÈ ÙÔ Ã∞∫Την αναστïλή της διαπραγµάτευσης και για σήµερα απï-

æάσισε τï ∆ιïικητικÞ Συµâïύλιï τïυ Ìρηµατιστηρίïυ ΑêιώνΚύπρïυ για σκïπïύς διασæάλισης της καλής λειτïυργίας τηςαγïράς τïυ Ìρηµατιστηρίïυ και για πρïστασία των επενδυ-τών.

“Τï Ìρηµατιστήριï Αêιών Κύπρïυ (XAK), σε συνέøεια τωνανακïινώσεων τïυ µε ηµερïµηνία 19 και 21 Μαρτίïυ 2013,ανακïινώνει Þτι µε απÞæαση τïυ Πρïέδρïυ τïυ Συµâïυλίïυκαι τïυ Γενικïύ ∆ιευθυντή τïυ ÌΑΚ, πïυ λήæθηκε σύµæωναµε τï άρθρï 183 των περί Αêιών και Ìρηµατιστηρίïυ ΑêιώνΚύπρïυ ΝÞµων και η ïπïία επικυρώθηκε απÞ τï Συµâïύλιïτïυ Ìρηµατιστηρίïυ σε σηµερινή έκτακτη συνεδρία τïυ, σύµ-

æωνα µε τï άρθρï 184 τïυ ΝÞµïυ και ενÞψει των εêελίêεωνστην ïικïνïµία και τη συνέøιση της Τραπεúικής Αργίας και γιατις 26 και 27/3/13, απïæασίστηκε η συνέøιση της αναστïλήςτης διαπραγµάτευσης Þλων των κινητών αêιών πïυ είναιεισηγµένες στï Ìρηµατιστήριï, για σκïπïύς διασæάλισης τηςκαλής λειτïυργίας της αγïράς τïυ Ìρηµατιστηρίïυ και γιαπρïστασία των επενδυτών.

Η απÞæαση αυτή λήæθηκε για τïυς ίδιïυς λÞγïυς ïι ïπïί-ïι αναæέρïνται αναλυτικά στις ανακïινώσεις τïυ ÌΑΚ ηµερï-µηνίας 19 και 21 Μαρτίïυ 2013”, αναæέρεται σε σøετική ανα-κïίνωση τïυ Ìρηµατιστηρίïυ. Τï Ìρηµατιστήριï παρέµεινεκαι øθες Τρίτη κλειστÞ.

O ∆ήµïς Λάρνακας και η Εταιρεία ΤïυριστικήςΑνάπτυêης και Πρïâïλής Λάρνακας øαιρετίúïυν την πρï-σθήκη καινïύριïυ δρïµïλïγίïυ απÞ την αερïπïρική εται-ρεία EasyJet απÞ τï Μιλάνï πρïς τï αερïδρÞµιï Λάρνακας.Η νέα απευθείας πτήση αρøίúει στις 27 Μαρτίïυ 2013 και θαπραγµατïπïιείται δύï æïρές την εâδïµάδα. Η εêέλιêη αυτήδιανïίγει νέες πρïïπτικές για αύêηση τïυ τïυριστικïύ ρεύ-µατïς απÞ την Ιταλία πρïς την πÞλη τïυ ·ήνωνα και πρïςτην Κύπρï γενικÞτερα.

ΣυγøρÞνως, νέα δρïµïλÞγια αναµένïνται τï πρïσεøέςδιάστηµα πρïς τï αερïδρÞµιï Λάρνακας απÞ πρïïρισµïύςτης Ανατïλικής Ευρώπης και αυτÞ ïæείλεται κυρίως στιςπρïσπάθειες της Hermes Airports για πρïσέλκυση νέωναερïγραµµών, τïυς ïπïίïυς και συγøαίρïυµε για τις στï-øευµένες πïλιτικές πïυ εæαρµÞúïυν και πïυ æαίνεται νααπïæέρïυν απτά απïτελέσµατα.

Παράλληλα, θετική εêέλιêη απïτελεί και η έναρêη αæίêε-

ων κρïυαúιερïπλïίων απÞ τï Ισραήλ πρïς τï ΛιµάνιΛάρνακας. Τα υπÞ αναæïρά δρïµïλÞγια θα πραγµατïπïιïύ-νται απÞ τï τέλïς Μαρτίïυ µέøρι τï τέλïς Ãκτωâρίïυ 2013σε εâδïµαδιαία âάση ενώ ïρισµένα δρïµïλÞγια περιλαµâά-νïυν και διανυκτέρευση στη Λάρνακα. ΤÞσï ï ∆ήµïςΛάρνακας Þσï και η Εταιρεία Τïυριστικής Ανάπτυêης καιΠρïâïλής Λάρνακας είναι σε επαæή µε τις αρøές τïυΛιµανιïύ Λάρνακας ώστε να υπάρøει συντïνισµÞς για τηνκαλύτερη δυνατή εêυπηρέτηση των τïυριστών µε τηνπαρïøή ενηµερωτικïύ υλικïύ καθώς µε την διευθέτηση τηςµεταæïράς τïυς πρïς τï κέντρï της πÞλης µε αστικά λεω-æïρεία. Σ’ αυτές τις πïλύ δύσκïλες ïικïνïµικές συνθήκεςπïυ διανύïυµε αναµένεται Þτι ï τïυρισµÞς θα âïηθήσει σεµεγάλï âαθµÞ στη στήριêη της τïπικής ïικïνïµίας και γι’αυτÞ ιδιαίτερη έµæαση θα πρέπει να δïθεί στïν εν λÞγωτïµέα απÞ τï κράτïς και απÞ Þλïυς τïυς υπÞλïιπïυςεµπλεκÞµενïυς æïρείς.

™ÙÔ ·ÎÔ˘ÛÙÈÎfi ÔÈ ÙÚ·Â˙ÈÎÔ› ˘¿ÏÏËÏÔÈ√È ÂÏ¿ÙÂ˜ ÛÙ· ÁÎÈÛ¤ ÌfiÓÔ ÁÈ· Ù· ··Ú·›ÙËÙ·

Στï ακïυστικÞ âρίσκïνται ïι τραπεúικïί υπάλληλïι αναµέ-νïντας εντïλή για να επιστρέψïυν στις εργασίες τïυς µετάτï κλείσιµï των τραπεúών απÞ την Παρασκευή 15 Μαρτίïυ. ΗΈνωση Τραπεúικών Υπαλλήλων Κύπρïυ κάλεσε Þλïυς τïυςτραπεúικïύς υπάλληλïυς να είναι έτïιµïι να παρïυσιασθïύνστις εργασίες τïυς µÞλις απïæασισθεί τï άνïιγµα τωνΤραπεúών ύστερα απÞ απÞæαση τïυ ∆ιïικητή της ΚεντρικήςΤράπεúας.

Παράλληλα, απευθύνεται στïυς πïλίτες πïυ είναι πελά-τες των Τραπεúών και να τïυς παρακαλεί µÞλις ανïίêïυν ïιΤράπεúες να επιδείêïυν κατανÞηση και υπïµïνή και να περιï-ρίσïυν την εêυπηρέτηση πïυ θα úητήσïυν στα απαραίτητααναγκαία, διÞτι έτσι θα διευκïλυνθïύν Þøι µÞνï ïι ίδιïι αλλάκαι ïι άλλïι πελάτες δίνïντας την ευκαιρία στïυς υπαλλή-λïυς να ανταπïκριθïύν στïν υπερâïλικÞ æÞρτï εργασίαςπïυ θα παρïυσιασθεί τις πρώτες µέρες ανïίγµατïς τωνΤραπεúών.

Ανακïίνωση της ΕΤΥΚ αναæέρει Þτι «âρισκÞµαστε µπρï-στά στïν ïδυνηρÞ συµâιâασµÞ των Βρυêελλών πρïσθέτï-ντας Þτι η απïêένωση των εργασιών των κυπριακώνΤραπεúών στην Ελλάδα µε ένα κύκλï εργασιών ίδιï περίπïυµε της Κύπρïυ, σηµαίνει Þτι περιïρίúει τï τραπεúικÞ µαςσύστηµα σε µεγάλï âαθµÞ, πïυ ήταν εê’ αρøής στÞøïς τηςΤρÞικας.

Σύµæωνα µε την ανακïίνωση, η Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ θα πρï-øωρήσει σε κïύρεµα Þλων των καταθέσεών της άνω των100.000 ευρώ κατά 30% και αυτÞ δηµιïυργεί συνθήκες επι-

âίωσης.Ùσïν αæïρά τη Λαϊκή, αναæέρει Þτι δυστυøώς η Τράπεúα

µέσα απÞ τη συµæωνία και κάτω απÞ τï âάρïς των 9 δις τïυELA δεν έγινε κατïρθωτÞ να συνεøίσει τις δραστηριÞτητεςτης µε τη µέøρι τώρα µïρæή της και θα µετατραπεί σε ΚΑΛΗκαι ΚΑΚΗ Τράπεúα.

“Η Ãργάνωσή µας θέλει να πληρïæïρήσει Þλïυς τïυςσυναδέλæïυς της Λαϊκής Τράπεúας Þτι ïæείλïυν στï σύνïλïτïυς, Þπως και ïι συνάδελæïι των άλλων Τραπεúών, µÞλιςανïίêïυν ïι Τράπεúες, να πρïσέλθïυν στις εργασίες τïυς.Κανένας υπάλληλïς δεν έøει απïλυθεί επειδή δηµιïυργήθη-κε και ΚΑΚΗ Τράπεúα” πρïσθέτει.

Σηµειώνει ακÞµη Þτι σε παρÞµïιες πρÞσæατες περιπτώ-σεις πïυ η ΤρÞικα επέâαλε ΚΑΛΗ και ΚΑΚΗ Τράπεúα, κανέναςσυνάδελæïς δεν απïλύθηκε, π.ø. στην Ελλάδα η ΑγρïτικήΤράπεúα µετατράπηκε σε ΚΑΚΗ και ΚΑΛΗ Τράπεúα και η ΚΑΛΗενσωµατώθηκε στην Τράπεúα Πειραιώς.Τï ίδιï έγινε και µε τïΤαøυδρïµικÞ Ταµιευτήριï.

Ùπως δήλωσε øθες ï ΠρÞεδρïς της ΕΤΥΚ ΛïϊúïςÌατúηκωστής, ïι ανησυøίες των τραπεúικών υπαλλήλων για τïθέµα των Ταµείων Πρïνïίας έøïυν καταλαγιάσει, µετά τïδιάγγελµα τïυ Πρïέδρïυ της ∆ηµïκρατίας ΝίκïυΑναστασιάδη.

«Νïµίúω Þτι έøïυν καταλαγιάσει» ïι ανησυøίες, δήλωσε ïκ. Ìατúηκωστής, ενώ επανέλαâε Þτι δεν θα επιτρέψïυν ναγίνïυν απïλύσεις.

Ερωτηθείς αν θα έøïυν ως ΕΤΥΚ ïπïιεσδήπïτε επαæές,

ακÞµη, και µε τïν ΠρÞεδρï Αναστασιάδη, ï κ. Ìατúηκωστήςείπε πως πρïâαίνïυν σε επαæές.

«Πιστεύïυµε Þτι δεν θα γίνïυν απïλύσεις. Και δεν θα επι-τρέψïυµε να γίνïυν απïλύσεις», συµπλήρωσε.

∆ήλωσε, παράλληλα, Þτι στην περίπτωση πïυ ανακïινω-θïύν απïλύσεις ïι τραπεúïϋπάλληλïι θα πρïøωρήσïυν σεαπεργία. Κληθείς να σøïλιάσει δηµïσιεύµατα Þτι γίνïνταναναλήψεις κεæαλαίων, ενώ ήταν κλειστές ïι τράπεúες, ï κ.Ìατúηκωστής είπε Þτι αν έøïυν γίνει τέτïιες µεταæïρές, απÞτην στιγµή πïυ είøαν µπλïκαριστεί ïι λïγαριασµïί στιςΤράπεúες, τÞτε να ερευνηθεί και τï θέµα αυτÞ.

Τέλïς, ï κ. Ìατúηκωστής συνέστησε υπïµïνή σε Þλïυς«για να êεæύγïυµε απÞ αυτÞ τï αδιέêïδï», Þπως είπε.



KÚÔ˘·˙ÈÂÚfiÏÔÈ· ·fi ÙÔ πÛÚ·‹Ï ÛÙËÓ §¿ÚÓ·Î·ªÔ˘‰È·ÛÌ¤ÓË Ë Î›ÓËÛË ÛÙ· Ú·Ù‹ÚÈ· Î·˘Û›ÌˆÓ

Πεσµένη είναι η κίνηση στα πρατήρια καυσίµων απÞτï πρωί της ∆ευτέρας, µε τïν ΠρÞεδρï τïυ ΠαγκυπρίïυΣυνδέσµïυ Πρατηριïύøων Πετρελαιïειδών ΚύπρïυΣτέæανï Στεæάνïυ να κάνει λÞγï για «µïύδιασµα στηναγïρά». O κ. Στεæάνïυ είπε επίσης Þτι δεν υπάρøει θέµαέλλειψης απïθεµάτων καυσίµων στα πρατήρια, καθώς ηπρïµήθεια απÞ τις εταιρείες συνεøίúεται απρÞσκïπτα,Þµως γίνεται τïις µετρητïίς.

Ã κÞσµïς, είπε ï κ. Στεæάνïυ, έøει πρïµηθευτεί καύ-σιµα απÞ τï Σαââατïκύριακï, και έøει περιïρίσει τις κινή-σεις τïυ, ενώ παραµένει πρïâληµατισµένïς, ενÞψει τηςεπαναλειτïυργίας των τραπεúών, την Πέµπτη.

ªÂÙ¿ ÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ Ë ™ÏÔ‚ÂÓ›·;Η Σλïâενία µπïρεί να είναι η επÞµενη øώρα στη σειρά

πïυ θα απïταθεί στην ΕΕ για διάσωση, µετά την Κύπρï,σύµæωνα µε δηµïσίευµα τïυ ιταλικïύ πρακτïρείïυ ειδήσε-ων ANSAmed, επικαλïύµενï πρÞσæατη έκθεση τηςΕπιτρïπής κατά της ∆ιαæθïράς της Σλïâενίας.

«Κατά την τελευταία δεκαετία, κïρυæαίες τράπεúες τηςΣλïâενίας παρείøαν τεράστια πïσά σε πιστώσεις πïυ τώρα

είναι τïêικές και ïι ïπïίες αντιστïιøïύν στï ένα πέµπτï τïυεθνικïύ ΑΕΠ» αναæέρεται στην έκθεση.

Πρïστίθεται Þτι ïι σøετικές απïæάσεις λήæθηκαν «στηâάση πïλιτικών και πρïσωπικών σøέσεων, εν µέσω ενÞςπεριâάλλïντïς διαρθρωτικής πïλιτικής διαæθïράς».

Ãι περισσÞτερες τράπεúες στη Σλïâενία είναι κρατικήςιδιïκτησίας, πρïστίθεται στην ανταπÞκριση τïυ ANSAmed,

ενώ αναæέρεται Þτι τï τïêικÞ øρέïς πïυ έøει συσσωρευτεί,υπïλïγίúεται σε 7 δις ευρώ, ή πïσïστÞ 20% τïυ συνÞλïυτων δανείων.

Ã πρώην ΥπïυργÞς Ãικïνïµικών της øώρας JanezSustercic δήλωσε Þτι η Σλïâενία θα αναγκαστεί πιθανÞτατανα πρïσæύγει για διεθνή âïήθεια, εκτÞς και αν υλïπïιηθείτï σøέδιï διάσωσης για τις τράπεúες.

µÁÂÓfiÔ˘ÏÔ˜: §¿ıÔ˜ ÁÈÁ·ÓÙÈ·›ˆÓ‰È·ÛÙ¿ÛÂˆÓ Ë ‰È¿Û·ÛË ÙË˜ §·˚Î‹˜

√ÈÎÔÓÔÌÈÎ‹ ·ÛÊ˘Í›· Ï‹ÙÙÂÈ ÙÔ˘˜ ¢‹ÌÔ˘˜

«Η διάσπαση της Λαϊκής ώστε να πρï-στατευθïύν για µια ακÞµη æïρά τα τεράστιασυµæέρïντα πïυ κρύâïνται πίσω απÞ τηνΤράπεúα Κύπρïυ είναι ένα λάθïς γιγαντιαί-ων διαστάσεων πïυ θα πλήêει âάναυσα τηνκυπριακή ïικïνïµία και κïινωνία», σύµæωναµε τïν πρώην µη εκτελεστικÞ πρÞεδρïς τηςMarfin - Λαϊκή Ανδρέα ΒγενÞπïυλï.

Ã κ. ΒγενÞπïυλïς µίλησε «για παράνï-µες ενέργειες και ευθύνες ενÞς διαπλεκÞ-µενïυ πïλιτικïïικïνïµικïύ κατεστηµένïυπïυ πïλέµησε λυσσαλέα την εêυγίανση,διαæάνεια και ισïνïµία πïυ πρïσπάθησε ναæέρει η Marfin Populal Bank στην Κύπρï».

Ã κ. ΒγενÞπïυλïς αναæέρει στην ανα-κïίνωση τïυ Þτι «πριν απÞ 17 περίπïυ µήνεςαντικαταστάθηκε âίαια και παράνïµα η∆ιïίκηση της Marfin Populal Bank, η ïπïίαείøε εκλεγεί απÞ τïυς ιδιώτες µετÞøïυς

της. την περίïδï πïυ ακïλïύθησε, τηνΤράπεúα, πïυ µε δηµÞσιïυς πανηγυρισµïύς‘êανάγινε κυπριακή’ και µετïνïµάσθηκε σεΛαϊκή, διïίκησαν ïι εκλεκτïί της Κυπριακής∆ηµïκρατίας ïι ïπïίïι και µε τις αντιεπαγ-γελµατικές πράêεις και παραλείψεις τïυς τηδιέλυσαν».

Αναæέρει Þτι «η ∆ιïίκηση, της ïπïίαςυπήρêα µη ΕκτελεστικÞς ΠρÞεδρïς παρέ-δωσε µια υγιή Τράπεúα µε καταθέσεις 20,2δις ευρώ, επιτïκιακά έσïδα 799 εκ. ευρώ,ïργανική πρï πρïâλέψεων κερδïæïρία 388εκ. ευρώ (2011) και ELA περίπïυ 3 δις ευρώ.Μέσα σε 17 µήνες η κρατική πλέïν Λαϊκήεπιδείνωσε δραµατικά τα απïτελέσµατά τηςκαι παρά την υπïτιθέµενη «σιγïυριά» τïυκρατικïύ της øαρακτήρα µείωσε ραγδαία τιςκαταθέσεις της και ανέâασε τη øρήση τïυELA σε πάνω απÞ 9 δισ. ευρώ».

Ã ∆ήµαρøïς Λευκωσίας ΚωνσταντίνïςΓιωρκάτúης καλεί την Κυâέρνηση και τηνΚεντρική Τράπεúα της Κύπρïυ να εêαιρέ-σïυν απÞ τï κïύρεµα των καταθετών τηςΛαϊκής Τράπεúας και της Τράπεúας Κύπρïυ,τïυς ∆ήµïυς.

Τï µεγαλύτερï µερίδιï των καταθέσεωντïυ ∆ήµïυ Λευκωσίας âρίσκïνται στη ΛαϊκήΤράπεúα και την Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ ανέæερε,και αæïύ πρÞσθεσε Þτι η απÞæαση τïυEurogroup ïδηγεί σε ïικïνïµική ασæυêίατï ∆ήµï της Πρωτεύïυσας, ανακïίνωσε Þτιï ∆ήµïς πρïετïιµάúει Έκτακτï Σøέδιï∆ράσης και ΡευστÞτητας για περίïδï ενÞςµηνÞς.

Ã κ. Γιωρκάτúης τÞνισε Þτι τυøÞν αντιµε-τώπιση των ∆ήµων ως απλών καταθετών-επενδυτών και τυøÞν άρνηση ή καθυστέρη-ση να διασæαλιστεί η ρευστÞτητα τïυς θα

έøει ως απïτέλεσµα την πιθανή θυµατïπïί-ηση των εργαúïµένων στï ∆ήµï λÞγω τηςµη έγκαιρης καταâïλής της µισθïδïσίας.

ΠρÞσθεσε Þτι επιπλέïν θα τεθεί σε κίν-δυνï η ασæάλεια και η υγεία των δηµïτώνλÞγω της αδυναµίας να καλυæθïύν τα λει-τïυργικά έêïδα των συνεργείων απïκïµι-δής σκυâάλων και της διαøείρισης τïυ σκυ-âαλÞτïπïυ Κïτσιάτη, επειδή η συντήρησηδρÞµων, æώτων τρïøαίας ανά τï παγκύπριïαλλά και η άρση επικινδυνÞτητας ετïιµÞρ-ρïπων ïικïδïµών καθίσταται πλέïν εêαιρε-τικά δύσκïλη και αµæίâïλη.

Ã ∆ήµαρøïς Λευκωσίας ανέæερεακÞµα Þτι τα αναπτυêιακά έργα απειλïύ-νται µε ακύρωση, αæïύ η συνεισæïρά τïυ∆ήµïυ στα έργα έøει σήµερα παγïπïιηθείκαι µεγάλï µέρïς της κινδυνεύει να απï-λεσθεί.

¶ÔÈÓÈÎÔ‡˜ ·Ó·ÎÚÈÙ¤˜ ı· ‰ÈÔÚ›ÛÂÈ Ô ∞Ó·ÛÙ·ÛÈ¿‰Ë˜

27 ΜΑΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013



Η διασæάλιση των ταµείων πρïνïίας στιςτράπεúες, αλλά και ï διïρισµÞς πïινικών ανα-κριτών τις αµέσως επÞµενες µέρες για ανα-úήτηση και απïνïµή ευθυνών, σøετικά µε τηνκατάσταση στην ïπïία περιήλθε η Κύπρïς,ήταν τα δύï âασικά µηνύµατα τïυ πρïέδρïυΝίκïυ Αναστασιάδη στï διάγγελµα τïυ πρïςτïν κυπριακÞ λαÞ.

Ã ΠρÞεδρïς της ∆ηµïκρατίας εêήγγειλε,Þτι τï ΥπïυργικÞ Συµâïύλιï θα διïρίσει πïινι-κïύς ανακριτές για αναúήτηση και απïνïµήευθυνών, ενώ περιγράæïντας τις «δραµατι-κές ώρες» στις Βρυêέλλες, είπε Þτι η Κύπρïς«âρέθηκε µια ανάσα πριν απÞ την ïικïνïµικήκατάρρευση».

Παράλληλα δεσµεύτηκε πως ηΚυâέρνηση θα πρïøωρήσει άµεσα σε εκείνεςτης ενέργειες πρïκειµένïυ να διασæαλι-στïύν τα Ταµεία Πρïνïίας των επηρεαúÞµε-νων τραπεúών (Κύπρïυ και Λαικής).

Ãι επιλïγές µας δεν ήταν εύκïλες, ïύτετï περιâάλλïν τï ιδανικÞτερï. Ùµως µεσκληρή διαπραγµάτευση, µε επιµïνή, αλλάκαι µε συναίσθηµα ευθύνης æτάσαµε σε ένααπïτέλεσµα πïυ διασæαλίúει τις πρïïπτικέςτης øώρας, τÞνισε.

Τις τελευταίες µέρες, είπε, η κατάστασητης ïικïνïµίας και τïυ τραπεúικïύ συστήµα-τïς επιδεινώθηκε δραµατικά µε απïτέλεσµα

τη σύγκληση στις Βρυêέλλες τïυ έκτακτïυEurogroup, µε απώτερï στÞøï την επίτευêηδανειακής σύµâασης και την έγκριση πρï-γράµµατïς διάσωσης. «Σε αντίθετη περίπτω-ση θα ïδηγïύµασταν στην κατάρρευση και τηøρεïκïπία τïυ κράτïυς», σηµείωσε.

«Η συµæωνία στην ïπïία καταλήêαµεείναι ïδυνηρή, αλλά υπÞ τις περιστάσεις ηκαλύτερη πïυ θα µπïρïύσαµε να εêασæαλί-σïυµε», τÞνισε και επεσήµανε Þτι µε τη συµ-æωνία êεπερνιέται ïριστικά ï κίνδυνïς øρεï-κïπίας της Κύπρïυ και απïτρέπïνται ïι τρα-γικές συνέπειες στην ïικïνïµία και την κïι-νωνία. Τï τραπεúικÞ σύστηµα θα σταθερïπïι-ηθεί.

Ùπως τÞνισε ï ΠρÞεδρïς Αναστασιάδης,αρøίúει µια νέα περίïδïς για την Κύπρï, πρï-ειδïπïιώντας παράλληλα Þτι «τις επÞµενεςµέρες θα αρøίσïυν να εæαρµÞúïνται δύσκï-λες απïæάσεις. Στην κατάσταση πïυ âρεθή-καµε δεν υπήρøαν και δεν υπάρøïυν εύκïλεςλύσεις. Ήµïυν υπïøρεωµένïς να πάρωδύσκïλες, ïδυνηρές αλλά και τïλµηρές απï-æάσεις πρïκειµένïυ να διασæαλίσω ένα δια-øειρίσιµï αύριï».

Ανέæερε Þτι η Ευρωπαϊκή ΚεντρικήΤράπεúα διασæαλίúει πλέïν τη ρευστÞτητατïυ τραπεúικïύ συστήµατïς και Þτι µέσα απÞτη δανειακή σύµâαση επιτυγøάνïυµε την

άντληση δέκα δισεκατïµµυρίων ευρώ, γεγï-νÞς πïυ απïδεικνύει Þτι απïκαθιστïύµε τηναêιïπιστία µας, αλλά και απïτελεί έµπρακτη

απÞδειêη Þτι ïι δανειστές µας εµπιστεύïνταιτη δηµιïυργικÞτητα τïυ λαïύ µας και τις πρï-ïπτικές της ïικïνïµίας µας.

√ ¶ÚfiÂ‰ÚÔ˜ ÙË˜ ¢ËÌÔÎÚ·Ù›·˜ ‰ÂÛÌÂ‡ÙËÎÂ ˆ˜ Ë ∫˘‚¤ÚÓËÛË ı· ÚÔ¯ˆÚ‹ÛÂÈ ¿ÌÂÛ· ÛÂ ÂÎÂ›ÓÂ˜ ÙË˜ ÂÓ¤ÚÁÂÈÂ˜ ÚÔÎÂÈÌ¤ÓÔ˘ Ó· ‰È·ÛÊ·ÏÈÛÙÔ‡Ó Ù· ∆·ÌÂ›· ¶ÚÔÓÔ›·˜

ÙˆÓ ÂËÚÂ·˙fiÌÂÓˆÓ ÙÚ·Â˙ÒÓ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ Î·È §·˚Î‹˜

ºÚ¤ÓÔ ÛÙËÓ ¯Ú‹ÛË ÈÛÙˆÙÈÎÒÓ Î·ÚÙÒÓ ‚¿˙Ô˘Ó ÔÈ ÂÈ¯ÂÈÚ‹ÛÂÈ˜

∆εν µπïρïύν να γίνïυν ïι πληρωµές τωνεπιøειρήσεων ïύτε και ïι πληρωµές πρïςτïυς εργαúÞµενïυς στï τέλïς τïυ µήναλÞγω τïυ κλεισίµατïς των τραπεúών, δηλώ-νει η Ãργάνωση Εργïδïτών και Βιïµηøάνων(ÃΕΒ), καλώντας Κυâέρνηση και Κεντρική ναανïίêει τις τράπεúες, αæïύ κάθε µέρα πïυπερνά η úηµιά στις επιøειρήσεις και την ïικï-νïµία αυêάνεται.

Την ίδια ώρα συστήνει στïυς επιøειρηµα-τίες να λάâïυν τα µέτρα τïυς πρïς αντιµε-τώπιση της νέας κατάστασης πραγµάτων καιστïν κÞσµï να είναι ψύøραιµïς και να κάνειυπïµïνή.

Σε δηλώσεις τïυ ï ΒïηθÞς ΓενικÞς ∆ιευ-θυντής της ÃΕΒ Κωνσταντίνïς Ìριστïæίδης

και ερωτηθείς πώς θα επηρεάσει τï κλείσιµïτων τραπεúών την πληρωµή µισθών και υπï-øρεώσεων απÞ επιøειρήσεις στï τέλïς τïυµήνα, είπε Þτι «σίγïυρα ïι πληρωµές των επι-øειρήσεων δεν µπïρïύν να γίνïυν, ïύτεâέâαια και ïι πληρωµές στïυς εργαúÞµενïυςκαι αυτÞ δηµιïυργεί πïλλά άλλα πρïâλήµαταστην κïινωνία και στην ïικïνïµία».

Ανέæερε ακÞµη Þτι γίνïνται συνεøείςσυσκέψεις για τï πώς θα αντιµετωπιστεί ηκατάσταση πïυ επικρατεί.

«Ετïιµάúïυµε τώρα άλλη µια σύσκεψηγια να δïύµε τις διαδικασίες πïυ αναµένïυ-µε να καθïρίσει η Κεντρική Τράπεúα», είπε.

Ερωτηθείς ï κ. Ìριστïæίδης είπε Þτι ηÃΕΒ έøει επικïινωνήσει µε την Κεντρική,

απÞ την ïπïία έλαâαν την απάντηση Þτι πρï-ετïιµάúïνται τα τελικά σηµεία των διαδικα-σιών. ΠιθανÞν, ανέæερε, «να έøïυµε µιασυνάντηση µαúί τïυς αύριï τï απÞγευµα, γιανα δïύµε τι τελικά θα έøïυν καθïρίσει τÞσïγια τις δύï τράπεúες – Κύπρïυ και Λαϊκή –Þσï και για τα άλλα τραπεúικά ιδρύµατα».

Ερωτηθείς κατά πÞσï είναι υπÞψη τïυπληρïæïρίες Þτι αριθµÞς εµπïρευÞµενωνδεν απïδέøεται πιστωτικές κάρτες, ï κ.Ìριστïæίδης παραδέøθηκε Þτι «αυêάνεται ïαριθµÞς των επιøειρήσεων πïυ δεν δέøïνταιτις πιστωτικές κάρτες», πρïσθέτïντας ωστÞ-σï Þτι «δεν είναι Þλïι, είναι ένας µικρÞςαριθµÞς επιøειρήσεων πïυ δεν δέøïνταιπλέïν πιστωτικές κάρτες και ï λÞγïς είναι

Þτι ïι πρïµηθευτές τïυς, τïύς úητïύν πλέïνµετρητά».

Ως πρïς τις επιøειρήσεις, τις κάλεσε «ναλάâïυν άµεσα τα µέτρα πïυ øρειάúïνται γιανα µπïρέσïυν να αντιµετωπίσïυν τα νέαδεδïµένα». Κληθείς να είναι πιï συγκεκριµέ-νïς, έκανε λÞγï για περισυλλïγή, σωστές καιέêυπνες επενδύσεις και τη διερεύνηση στρα-τηγικών συνεργασιών.

Τέλïς, συνέστησε στïυς πïλίτες να είναιψύøραιµïι και να κάνïυν υπïµïνή.

MMooooddyy’’ss:: ∂∂‡‡ııÚÚ··˘ÛÛÙÙËË ËË ÂÂÌÌÈÈÛÛÙÙÔÔÛÛ‡‡ÓÓËË ÙÙˆÓÓ ÎÎ··ÙÙ··ııÂÂÙÙÒÒÓÓΣηµαντική συρρίκνωση τïυ κυπριακïύ τραπεúικïύ τïµέα αναµένει ï ïίκïς αêιïλÞγησης

Moody’s, σύµæωνα µε έκθεση τïυ µε τίτλï «Η κρίση της Κύπρïυ είναι αρνητική πιστωτικά γιατα κράτη της Ευρωúώνης». H Κύπρïς µετά τï τέλïς των διαπραγµατεύσεων για τï πακέτï στή-ριêης απÞ τα κράτη της Ευρωúώνης (ΤρÞικα), θα συνεøίσει να αντιµετωπίúει σηµαντική πίεσηστην πïιÞτητα τïυ ενεργητικïύ τïυ τραπεúικïύ τïµέα και της ρευστÞτητας, καθώς η ïικïνï-µία συνεøίúει να συρρικνώνεται και η εµπιστïσύνη των καταθετών παραµένει εύθραυστη.Επιπλέïν, τï τραπεúικÞ επιøειρηµατικÞ µïντέλï και τï πρïæίλ τïυ κυπριακïύ συστήµατïς, ωςκέντρï υπεράκτιων εταιρειών, είναι απίθανï να επιâιώσει απÞ την κρίση», σηµειώνει.

«Αναµένïυµε τï µέγεθïς τïυ τραπεúικïύ τïµέα της Κύπρïυ να συρρικνωθεί σηµαντικά.Τïσύνïλï τïυ τραπεúικïύ τïµέα της Κύπρïυ ανερøÞταν στï 697% τïυ ΑΕΠ στï τέλïς τïυ 2011,σε σύγκριση µε µέσï Þρï 354% στην ΕΕ», πρïσθέτει.

Ãι Moody’s αναæέρïυν επίσης Þτι «η πρïθυµία των πïλιτικών να επιâάλïυν απώλειεςστïυς καταθέτες και ï κίνδυνïς διακïπής της øρηµατïδÞτησης τïυ συστήµατïς, πρïκειµένïυνα περιïριστεί τï συνïλικÞ κÞστïς διάσωσης για µια κυâέρνηση πïυ τï øρέïς της θεωρείταιµη âιώσιµï, είναι πιστωτικά αρνητικά για τα ανώτερα πιστωτικά ιδρύµατα σε ïλÞκληρη τη úώνητïυ ευρώ».

∂∂ÚÚ··ÛÛÈÈÙÙÂÂ¯ÓÓÈÈÎÎ¤¤˜ ÎÎÈÈÓÓ‹‹ÛÛÂÂÈÈ˜ ··fifi ÙÙÔÔ˘˜ ÂÂ˘ÚÚˆ··››ÔÔ˘˜ ËËÁÁ¤¤ÙÙÂÂ˜Ùπως και µετά την πρώτη απïρριæθείσα συµæωνία τïυ Eurogroup έτσι και τώρα στη

Βρετανία, µετά τις πρώτες αντιδράσεις και έντïνες επικρίσεις κατά της ευρωúώνης και τηςτρÞικα για τις εêελίêεις στην Κύπρï, εµæανίúïνται αναλυτές πïυ υπερασπίúïνται τη συµæωνία,έστω και αν παραµένïυν η µειïψηæία.

Μετά τïν πρωθυπïυργÞ Ντέιâιντ Κάµερïν πïυ øαρακτήρισε καλή εêέλιêη την επίτευêησυµæωνίας για την Κύπρï, εκæράúïντας τη øαρά τïυ για την εêαίρεση των µικρïκαταθετών,υπάρøïυν αναλυτές πïυ σøïλιάúïυν øαρακτηριστικά Þτι η κατάσταση στην ïπïία έøει περιέλ-θει τï νησί δεν ïæείλεται στη γερµανική «âαρâαρÞτητα», αλλά «στην ανευθυνÞτητα των ηγε-σιών τïυ».

Στï κύριï άρθρï τïυς ïι Φαϊνάνσιαλ Τάιµς, πïυ έøïυν τηρήσει εêαιρετικά επικριτική στάσηαπέναντι στïυς Ευρωπαίïυς εταίρïυς, σøïλιάúïυν Þτι «αν και λίγïι θα συµæωνήσïυν στηνΚύπρï, τï νησί πήρε την καλύτερη συµæωνία πïυ δικαιïύταν να περιµένει». Τï άρθρï εêηγείÞτι η Κύπρïς επέλεêε την υψηλïύ ρίσκïυ στρατηγική να úει εêαρτώµενï απÞ έναν τραπεúιτι-κÞ τïµέα πïλύ µεγαλύτερï απÞ Þσï µπïρïύσε να στηρίêει τï κράτïς.

∏ ‰È¿Û·ÛË ÙË˜ Â˘Úˆ˙ÒÓË˜ ÏËÛÈ¿˙ÂÈ ...Κατά την διάρκεια των τελευταίων ïκτώ

µηνών πρïτïύ êεσπάσει πλήρως η κρίσηστην Κύπρï, διάæïρïι άνθρωπïι µïυ υπενθύ-µιúαν διαρκώς, συøνά µε ένα øαµÞγελï, τιςπρïâλέψεις πïυ είøα κάνει στα τέληΝïεµâρίïυ τïυ 2011. Είøα δηλώσει, Þτι ïιηγέτες της ευρωúώνης είøαν 10 µέρες για νασώσïυν τï ευρώ. Είøα κάνει και µία παρÞ-µïια, αν και λιγÞτερï δραµατική, πρÞâλεψητï 2006 Þταν είøα γράψει Þτι η κυâέρνησητïυ Ρïµάνï ΠρÞντι ήταν η τελευταία ευκαι-ρία της Ιταλίας να επιτύøει µία âιώσιµη θέσηστην ευρωúώνη.

Η κυâέρνηση τïυ κ. ΠρÞντι δεν τï πέτυ-øε αυτÞ. Σήµερα, τï 2013, τï ευρώ είναιακÞµα εδώ, η Ιταλία είναι ακÞµα στï ευρώ–και εγώ εêακïλïυθώ να κάνω πρïâλέψεις.Θα συνεøίσω να ρισκάρω απτÞητïς και πάλι.Μια ευρωúώνη πïυ απïτελείται απÞ øώρεςτÞσï διαæïρετικές Þσï η Γερµανία και ηΚύπρïς δεν είναι âιώσιµη, ακÞµα και αν η ΕΕκαι η Κύπρïς καταæέρïυν να καταλήêïυν σεσυµâιâασµÞ της τελευταίας στιγµής. Μία λει-τïυργική τραπεúική ένωση πïυ θα περιλάµ-âανε την κïινή επïπτεία, την ασæάλεια κατα-θέσεων και ένα µηøανισµÞ συντεταγµένηςδιάλυσης τραπεúών, θα πληρïύσε τις ελάøι-στες πρïϋπïθέσεις για τη διάσωση ενÞςνïµισµατικïύ συστήµατïς ενάντια στις πιθα-νÞτητες. Σίγïυρα, θα έλυνε τα πρïâλήµατατων κυπριακών τραπεúών. Ùµως η ευρωúώνηδεν διαθέτει µία τέτïια τραπεúική ένωση. Καιδεν πρÞκειται να διαθέτει µία τέτïια τραπεúι-κή ένωση ïύτε σε πέντε øρÞνια. Η Γερµανίατην απïρρίπτει εê’ ïλïκλήρïυ µε την αιτιï-λïγία Þτι είναι πïλύ ακριâή για τï γερµανÞæïρïλïγïύµενï. Κατά ειρωνικÞ τρÞπï, ηΚύπρïς θα την απέρριπτε επίσης καθώς θακατέστρεæε τï επιøειρηµατικÞ της µïντέλï

ως offshore κέντρï για êένες καταθέσεις.Ùπïιï είδïς τραπεúικής ένωσης και αν πρï-κύψει στï τέλïς, σίγïυρα δεν θα έøει σøέσηµε την παρïύσα κρίση.

Τα Þσα συνέâησαν στην Κύπρï τηντελευταία âδïµάδα δεν πρïκλήθηκαν εê’ïλïκλήρïυ απÞ κάτι συγκεκριµένï.Απïτελïύν ωστÞσï τï τέλειï παράδειγµατïυ πρïâλήµατïς συλλïγικής δράσης τηςευρωúώνης. Αυτή η τελευταία κλιµάκωση,êεκίνησε µε την επικίνδυνη συµæωνία διάσω-σης (bail-in) στïυς ασæαλισµένïυς καταθέ-τες. Ãι αêιωµατïύøïι της ευρωúώνης είναιτÞσï νïµικά Þσï και ïικïνïµικά αµÞρæωτïι.Η λαµπρή τïυς ιδέα δεν ήταν για κïύρεµατων ασæαλισµένων καταθέσεων κάτω των100.000 ευρώ , αλλά ïυσιαστικά για επιâïλήæÞρïυ σε αυτές τις καταθέσεις. ∆εν συνει-δητïπïίησαν Þτι αν πάρïυν πίσω την υπÞ-σøεση πïυ εµπεριέøεται στην ασæάλιση τωνκαταθέσεων, αυτÞ απïτελεί αθέτηση, καιδιακινδυνεύïυν να êεκινήσïυν τραπεúικÞπανικÞ.

Τï κυπριακÞ κïινïâïύλιï είøε æυσικάκάθε δικαίωµα να απïρρίψει αυτή την τρελήσυµæωνία. ΩστÞσï, η κυπριακή κυâέρνησηπραγµατïπïίησε στη συνέøεια τρεις διαδïøι-κές γκάæες. Η πρώτη ήταν η απÞæαση τïυΠρïέδρïυ Νίκïυ Αναστασιάδη να úητήσειâïήθεια απÞ τη Ρωσία. Αντί να συνεργαστείµε την ευρωúώνη, εργάστηκε εναντίïν της.Ãι Γερµανïί, ειδικÞτερα, τï εêέλαâαν αυτÞως µία απρïκάλυπτα εøθρική κίνηση.Απïδείøθηκε επίσης επιπÞλαια, καθώς ïιΡώσïι απέρριψαν την πρïσæïρά. Η δεύτερηγκάæα ήταν η απÞæαση να µην επικïινωνή-σïυν µε τïυς υπïυργïύς Ãικïνïµικών τηςΕυρώπης και τïυ Eurogroup για τρεις κρίσι-µες ηµέρες την περασµένη εâδïµάδα. Η

τρίτη γκάæα ήταν η πρÞταση της κυπριακήςκυâέρνηση την Πέµπτη για τη δηµιïυργίαενÞς κρατικïύ επενδυτικïύ ταµείïυ πïυ θαστηριúÞταν απÞ επιδρïµές στï ταµείï συντά-êεων και άλλα κρατικά περιïυσιακά στïιøεία.Η πρÞταση αυτή απïρρίæθηκε ταøύτατα απÞτην Άνγκελα Μέρκελ την Παρασκευή.

ΑυτÞ πïυ συνέâη την περασµένη εâδï-µάδα είναι ένα ταιριαστÞ παράδειγµα τωνΕυρωπαίων πïλιτικών ηγετών και της πραγ-µατικά αντιεπαγγελµατικής επιδίωêης τωνστενών εθνικών συµæερÞντων τïυς, απïτυγ-øάνïντας να υπερασπιστïύν τï κïινÞ καλÞ.

Ã κύριïς κίνδυνïς πïυ θέλω να τïνίσω,ωστÞσï, δεν είναι ï κίνδυνïς κάπïιïυ µεγά-λïυ «ατυøήµατïς». ΑυτÞ µπïρεί να συµâείæυσικά. Αλλά υπïψιάúïµαι Þτι ï µεγαλύτερïςκίνδυνïς πρïέρøεται τελικά απÞ τα επανει-ληµµένα λάθη πïλιτικής της ευρωúώνης. Ãιεπιπτώσεις τïυς είναι αργές, αλλά αθρïιστι-κές.

ΑπÞ αυτές τις πïλιτικές, η πιï καταστρï-æική ήταν η πïλιτική της ασύµµετρης ρύθµι-σης µέσω της λιτÞτητας. Ãι τράπεúες στηνΚύπρï øρεïκïπïύν τώρα, µετά τα πρïâλήµα-τα των ελληνικών τραπεúών και τïυ ελληνι-κïύ κράτïυς, και επειδή η ευρωúώνη εêανά-γκασε τη συµµετïøή τïυ ιδιωτικïύ τïµέα.Στην Ιταλία, η λιτÞτητα ήταν αυτή πïυ µετέ-τρεψε την κρίση σε µεγάλη ύæεση. Στη συνέ-øεια, αυτÞ ïδήγησε στï να µετατραπεί ένακίνηµα ενάντια στï κατεστηµένï και στïευρώ, σε ένα απÞ τα µεγαλύτερα πïλιτικάκÞµµατα στï ιταλικÞ κïινïâïύλιï κατά τιςτελευταίες εκλïγές. Κατά πάσα πιθανÞτητα,ï ηγέτης τïυ κÞµµατïς, Μπέπε Γκρίλï, θαµπïρïύσε να καταλήêει µε την απÞλυτη πλει-ïψηæία, αν υπάρêει επÞµενïς γύρïς εκλï-γών µέσα στï 2013.

Αν τïυλάøιστïν η λιτÞτητα στï νÞτï είøεαντισταθµιστεί απÞ τη δηµïσιïνïµική επέ-κταση στï âïρρά, η συνïλική δηµïσιïνïµικήπρïïπτική της ευρωúώνης θα ήταν µακρïïι-κïνïµικά ïυδέτερη. Αλλά, δεδïµένïυ Þτι καιï âïρράς πρïøώρησε σε λιτÞτητα, η ευρωúώ-νη κατέληêε µε πρωτïγενές δηµïσιïνïµικÞπλεÞνασµα σε ύæεση. Σε ένα τέτïιï περιâάλ-λïν, απλά δε γίνεται να λάâει øώρα η ïικïνï-µική αναπρïσαρµïγή. ∆ίøως αυτήν δε µπïρείνα υπάρêει λύση στην κρίση.

Πιστεύω εδώ και καιρÞ, Þτι δεν είναι εæι-κτÞ η Γερµανία, η Φινλανδία και η Ãλλανδίανα âρίσκïνται στην ίδια νïµισµατική ένωσηµε την Κύπρï, την Ελλάδα και τηνΠïρτïγαλία. Θα πρέπει ïι δύï πλευρές είτενα συµæωνήσïυν να πρïσαρµïστïύν πιïσυµµετρικά, απÞ πïλιτικής και ïικïνïµικήςάπïψης, είτε αυτÞ τï πείραµα θα πρέπει νατελειώσει.

Η πρÞâλεψη πïυ έκανα τï Νïέµâριï τïυ2011, και την ïπïία επαναλαµâάνω σήµερα,είναι Þτι η ευρωúώνη θα τελειώσει κάπïιαστιγµή, αν και αυτή η στιγµή µπïρεί να είναιακÞµα πïλύ µακριά. ∆ε µπïρώ æυσικά νααπïκλείσω τï ενδεøÞµενï Þτι ïι διάæïρεςκυâερνήσεις θα κάνïυν σωστές κινήσεις,αλλά τα τρία τελευταία øρÞνια διαøείρισηςκρίσεων µας δείøνïυν ακριâώς τï αντίθετï.

Μέσω της τρέøïυσας πïλιτικής, θα øρει-αστεί στï τέλïς να καταæύγïυν στη âία γιανα συνεøίσïυν να δρïυν απερίσκεπτα, ενά-ντια στα συµæέρïντα τïυ λαïύ.

∆ε øρειάúεται να είναι κανείς ευρωσκε-πτικιστής για να καταλήêει στï συµπέρασµαÞτι µία τέτïιïυ είδïυς νïµισµατική ένωσηείναι âαθιά ανήθικη.

¶ËÁ‹: www.sofokleous10.gr


6 | EI∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

∆Ô (ÌË) ¯Â›ÚÔÓ ‚¤ÏÙÈÛÙÔÓ;

Σε ακÞµα µια συνεδρίαση «παρωδία» τïυEurogroup Þπïυ ïι 17 ευρωπαίïι υπïυργïίïικïνïµικών της Ευρωúώνης κλήθηκαν ναλύσïυν τï κυπριακÞ πρÞâληµα έδωσαν τηνøαριστική âïυλή στην øώρα µας µε µια απÞ-æαση κÞλαæïς για τï øρηµατïπιστωτικÞ µαςσύστηµα. Η κρίσιµη συνεδρίαση τïυEurogroup êεκίνησε µε έêι ώρες καθυστέρη-ση, αæïύ ακïλïυθήθηκε µια παράδïêη διαδι-κασία, καθώς ïι υπïυργïί Ãικïνïµικών τηςευρωúώνης λίγï πριν απÞ τις 11 τï âράδυêεκίνησαν µια άτυπη συνεδρίαση, δηλαδή µίαανεπίσηµη πρï-συνάντηση, απÞ την ïπïίααπείøαν ïι εκπρÞσωπïι της κυπριακής πλευ-ράς! Βασικά την απÞæαση πήραν ως είθισταιïι Γερµανïί και την σέρâιραν στïυς υπÞλïι-πïυς 16 πïυ για ακÞµα µια æïρά παρίσταναντα διακïσµητικά στïιøεία σε ακÞµα µια συνε-δρία παρωδία Þπïυ τï τρίï της αλαúïνείας(Lagarde, Νταισελµπλïύµ και Σïιµπλε) µεεκâιασµïύς απειλές και πρωτïæανή επιθετι-κÞτητα πέτυøαν αυτÞ πïυ ήθελαν.

Πρακτικά, κλείνει η δεύτερη µεγαλύτερητράπεúα, η Λαϊκή, η ïπïία θα σπάσει σε«καλή» και «κακή» τράπεúα επιâάλλïνταςπïλύ µεγάλες απώλειες σε καταθέτες µεπερισσÞτερα απÞ 100.000 ευρώ, είτε είναιêένïι είτε Kύπριïι.

ΑπÞ την κίνηση αυτή πλήττïνται εκτÞςαπÞ τïυς καταθέτες µε περισσÞτερα απÞ100.000 ευρώ και ïι ïµïλïγιïύøïι καθώς Þλïιøάνïυν σøεδÞν Þλες τïυς τις επενδύσεις –ανκαι µένει ακÞµη να êεκαθαριστεί µε πïιïυςÞρïυς θα γίνει αυτÞ.

Τï «καλÞ» κïµµάτι της Λαϊκής θα µετα-æερθεί στην Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ. Ãι καταθέτες

της Τράπεúας Κύπρïυ, πïυ έøïυν περισσÞτε-ρα απÞ 100.000 ευρώ, θα υπïστïύν κι αυτïίαπώλειες, ïι ïπïίες σύµæωνα µε πηγές, ανα-µένεται να ανέλθïυν, κατά µέσï Þρï, σε περί-πïυ 30%, ενώ σε ïρισµένες ακραίες περιπτώ-σεις, ενδέøεται να æτάσει και τï 40%.

Επίσης επιâάλλïνται πïλύ αυστηρïί Þρïιστη διακίνηση κεæαλαίων για να µην υπάρêειµαúική εκρïή øρηµάτων απÞ τις τράπεúες.

Μια απÞæαση ταæÞπλακα Þøι µÞνï για τïøρηµατïïικïνïµικÞ τïµέα της Κύπρïυ αλλάκαι για ïλÞκληρη την ïικïνïµία.

Τï κυπριακÞ ΑΕΠ απειλείται πλέïν µεπραγµατική κατάρρευση, ενώ παράλληλα ïιασæυκτικïί έλεγøïι στη διακίνηση των κεæα-λαίων θα âάλïυν æρένï στην ïµαλή λειτïυρ-γία της κυπριακής ïικïνïµίας.

Με τï πακέτï διάσωσης των 10 δισ. ευρώτï κυπριακÞ øρέïς θα σκαρæαλώσει στï140% τïυ ΑΕΠ ενώ

τα πïσά πïυ θα λάâει απÞ την Ευρωúώνηη Λευκωσία θα ïδηγήσïυν σε δυσθεώρηταύψη τï κυπριακÞ øρέïς, καθιστώντας τï στα-διακά µη âιώσιµï. Η αυστηρή λιτÞτητα θαεκτινάêει στα ύψη την ανεργία στη øώρα,αυêάνïντας τïν κίνδυνï για κïινωνική έκρη-êη. Η κυπριακή ïικïνïµία κινδυνεύει να κατα-στεί µια ïικïνïµία - úÞµπι, πλήρως εêαρτηµέ-νη απÞ την Ευρωúώνη και øωρίς πïλλές ελπί-δες για ανάπτυêη.

Η επίτευêη συµæωνίας για την Κύπρïαναδεικνύει και κάτι ακÞµη, επίσης πïλύσïâαρÞ: Για µια ακÞµη æïρά, ïι διαπραγµα-τεύσεις δεν συνïδεύθηκαν απÞ καµία δηµï-κρατική διαδικασία. Ã νέïς πρÞεδρïς τïυEurogroup δεν είναι τίπïτα περισσÞτερï απÞένα ακÞµα πιÞνι τïυ ΣÞιµπλε ï ïπïίïς πατώ-ντας πάνω στην πρïεκλïγική εκστρατεία τηςΜέρκελ δείøνει τα δÞντια τïυ σε µια µικρήøώρα µε æτηνά επιøειρήµατα περί êεπλύµα-τïς µαύρïυ øρήµατïς. Είναι πράγµατι άêιïαπïρίας πÞσï εύκïλα ενσωµατώθηκε η πρï-παγάνδα των Γερµανών και λïιπών δυνάµεων

σøετικά µε τα «µαύρï øρήµα», τï πλυντήριïκαι τï øρηµατïπιστωτικÞ σύστηµα και άλλαεπιøειρήµατα άνευ ïυσίας.

∆ηλαδή τï Λïυêεµâïύργï ή ακÞµα και ïιΓερµανικές τράπεúες δεν êέρïυν τίπïτα γιατï «âρώµικï øρήµα» πïυ êεπλένεται στηνεπικράτεια τïυς, τï øρήµα της Στάúι και τωνΝαúί πïυ êεπλύθηκε; Θέλïυν να µας πείσïυνÞτι για 5-6 δις ευρώ απειλïύν να τινάêïυνστïν αέρα ïλÞκληρï τï ïικïδÞµηµα τïυΕυρώ.

Σε καµία περίπτωση! Υπάρøει ïργανωµέ-νï σøέδιï απïδÞµησης τïυ κυπριακïύ τραπε-úικïύ συστήµατïς αλλά και τïυ ρÞλïυ τηςΚύπρïυ ως øρηµατïπιστωτικÞ κέντρï διακί-νησης κεæαλαίων απÞ τη Μέση Ανατïλή, τηΡωσία, την Κίνα και την Αµερική. Και Þλα αυτάστην κρισιµÞτερη æάση της εκµετάλλευσηςτïυ æυσικïύ πλïύτïυ της. Η διψασµένη γιαενέργεια Γερµανία πïυ αιµατïκύλησε τïυλά-øιστïν δύï æïρές την Ευρώπη συνεøίúει ακά-θεκτη τï έργï σε µια νέα πρïσπάθεια, µÞνïπïυ αυτή τη æÞρα είναι τï Ευρώ κι ï τρÞπïςπïυ τï øρησιµïπïιεί, αυτÞ είναι τï ισøυρÞτε-ρï Þπλï µαúικής καταστρïæής των ïικïνï-

µιών. Μια µατιά µÞνï στïν øάρτη της ανατï-λικής Μεσïγείïυ δείøνει την τεραστία γεω-πïλιτική θέση της Κύπρïυ και τη µεγίστηστρατηγική της αêία. Η Κύπρïς είναι τï µπαλ-κÞνι της νïτιïανατïλικής Μεσïγείïυ. ΗΚύπρïς είναι η «πÞρτα» απÞ την ïπïία µπαί-νεις στην ευρύτερη αæρικανική και ασιατικήπεριïøή. Η µαρτυρική Κύπρïς –δεν είναι ηπρώτη æïρά – γίνεται πεδίï µιας άγριας, ίσωςτης µεγαλύτερης σύγκρïυσης για τïν έλεγøïτων γεωπïλιτικών σæαιρών.

Πλέïν τï µέγα ερώτηµα πïυ πλανάταιστην øώρα µας είναι τï τι µέλλει γενέσθαι.

Μπïρεί η øώρα µας να êεæύγει απÞ αυτήτην θηλιά πïυ τις έøïυν δέσει στïν λαιµÞ ïι«εταίρïι» της; Μπïρïύµε να τï κάνïυµεεντÞς ή εκτÞς Ευρώ»;

Είναι δυνατÞν να απεµπλακïύµε απÞ τïâάσανï της τρÞικας την ïπïία θα έøïυµε στïσâέρκï µας επί καθηµερινής âάσης µε τιςπαράλïγες απαιτήσεις τïυς;

Σε αυτά και άλλα ερωτήµατα θα επιøειρή-σïυµε να δώσïυµε ρεαλιστικές και πάνω απÞÞλα εæικτές απαντήσεις στï επÞµενï µαςάρθρï.

Foreign Exchange AnalystEmail: [email protected]

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Ã¿ıËÎÂ Ë §·˚Î‹, ÎÏÈÓÈÎ¿ ÓÂÎÚ‹ Ë ∆Ú¿Â˙· ∫‡ÚÔ˘, ÛÂ ÎÚ›ÛÈÌË Î·Ù¿ÛÙ·ÛË ÔÈ ˘fiÏÔÈÂ˜ ÙÚ¿Â˙Â˜, ÛÙËÓ ÂÓÙ·ÙÈÎ‹ ÔÏfiÎÏËÚÔ˜ Ô ÙÚ·Â˙ÈÎfi˜ ÙÔÌ¤·˜ Î·È ÙÔ Ì¤Á· ÂÚÒÙËÌ· Ô˘ ÁÂÓÓÈ¤Ù·È: ÂÓÙfi˜ Ë ÂÎÙfi˜ ∂˘Úˆ˙ÒÓË˜ Ë ¯ÒÚ·;

27 MAΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013



¢È·ÚÚÔ¤˜ ÂÎ·ÙÔÌÌ˘Ú›ˆÓ ÌÂ ÎÏÂÈÛÙ¤˜ ÙÈ˜ ÙÚ¿Â˙Â˜ ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ

Τεράστια πïσά έæυγαν απÞ τις κυπριακέςτράπεúες, την ώρα πïυ αυτές ήταν κλειστές,ïι πïλίτες έκαναν ïυρές στα ATM και ï ΝίκïςΑναστασιάδης ήταν σε διαπραγµατεύσεις γιανα âρεθεί λύση, αναæέρει σε δηµïσίευµα τïυτï πρακτïρείï Reuters.

Συγκεκριµένα αναæέρεται Þτι έγιναναναλήψεις απÞ υπïκαταστήµατα τïυ εêωτε-ρικïύ, µεταæïρές κεæαλαίων µε τï αιτιïλïγι-κÞ Þτι πρïïρίúïνται για «ανθρωπιστική âïή-

θεια», αγïρά æαρµάκων ή ακÞµη και καυσί-µων αερïσκαæών ήταν µερικά απÞ τα τεøνά-σµατα πïυ øρησιµïπïίησαν µεγάλïι πελάτεςτραπεúών της Κύπρïυ για να σηκώσïυν ÞσïπερισσÞτερα øρήµατα µπïρïύσαν.

Σύµæωνα µε Þσα απïκαλύπτει τï πρα-κτïρείï µε τïν τρÞπï αυτÞ έæυγαν απÞ τïνησί δεκάδες ή ίσως εκατïντάδες εκατïµµύ-ρια ευρώ Þσï ήταν κλειστές ïι τράπεúες καιλίγï πριν ληæθεί η απÞæαση για την αναδιάρ-

θρωσή τïυς. Τα στελέøη της ΕΕ κατάλαâανÞτι κάτι δεν πήγαινε καλά Þταν η ΚεντρικήΤράπεúα Κύπρïυ άρøισε να úητάει περισσÞτε-ρα øαρτïνïµίσµατα απÞ Þσα δήλωνε στακεντρικά της ΕΚΤ στη Φρανκæïύρτη και Þτιέκαναν αναλήψεις πελάτες τραπεúών τηςΚύπρïυ, αναæέρïυν πηγές τïυ Reuters.

Η απïκάλυψη πρïκαλεί αίσθηση αæïύτην ώρα πïυ πïλλïί µικρïκαταθέτες Κύπριïιέκαναν ïυρές στα ΑΤΜ για να πάρïυν µερι-

κές µÞνï εκατïντάδες ευρώ, άλλïι πïυ είøανπρÞσâαση κυρίως σε εταιρείες øρησιµïπïίη-σαν τεøνάσµατα για να σηκώσïυν ρευστÞ.

Εταιρείες έπαιρναν πράσινï æως για ανα-λήψεις δηλώνïντας Þτι έπρεπε να καλύψïυνεπενδυτικά ανïίγµατα ενώ επιτράπηκανακÞµη και µεταæïρές κεæαλαίων για Þσïυςτις úητïύσαν µε αιτιïλïγικÞ την αγïράανθρωπιστικής âïήθειας, æαρµάκων ή καυσί-µων για αερïσκάæη.

Fitch: “Default” Ë §·˚Î‹, “Restricted Default” Ë ∆Ú. ∫‡ÚÔ˘

Σε υπïâάθµιση των µακρïπρÞθεσµων καιâραøυπρÞθεσµων IDRs της Λαϊκής Τράπεúαςστην τελευταία âαθµίδα αêιïλÞγησης “D”,δηλαδή σε Default, και των IDRs της ΤράπεúαςΚύπρïυ σε “RD”, δηλαδή Restricted Default,απÞ “B”, αντίστïιøα, πρïøώρησε ï διεθνήςïίκïς αêιïλÞγησης Fitch Ratings, µετά τησυµæωνία τïυ Eurogroup µε τις κυπριακέςαρøές για παραøώρηση στην Κύπρï ïικïνïµι-κής âïήθειας ύψïυς 10 δις ευρώ.

Σύµæωνα µε τïν ïίκï, η διαæïρά στηναêιïλÞγηση των δύï τραπεúών έγκειται στïγεγïνÞς Þτι η Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ συνεøίúει τις

εργασίες της στην Κύπρï, ενώ η ΛαϊκήΤράπεúα θα διασπαστεί σε “καλή” και “κακή”τράπεúα.

Επίσης, ï Fitch διατήρησε σε αρνητικÞïρίúïντα για πιθανή υπïâάθµιση την αêιïλÞ-γηση της Ελληνικής Τράπεúας. ΕιδικÞτερα, ïïίκïς διατήρησε την αêιïλÞγηση των µακρï-πρïθέσµων IDR και SRF της ΕλληνικήςΤράπεúας σε “Β” και των SR στη âαθµίδα “4”,καθώς δεν έøïυν επιâληθεί απώλειες στïυςανασæάλιστïυς καταθέτες µέøρι σήµερα, ενώη Τράπεúα συνεøίúει να λαµâάνει ρευστÞτητααπÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεúα, ως

απïτέλεσµα της δήλωσης τïυ Eurogroup.Ã ïίκïς Fitch αæïύ αναæέρεται στις απï-

æάσεις πïυ λήæθηκαν στï Eurogroup για τιςδύï τράπεúες, αναæέρει Þτι αναµένει τÞσïτην ανάκληση της τραπεúικής άδειας τηςΛαϊκής Τράπεúας Þσï και την επιâïλή σηµα-ντικών úηµιών απÞ τις “κακές τραπεúικέςυπïøρεώσεις”.

Σε σøέση µε την Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ, ï διε-θνής ïίκïς αναµένει την επιâïλή σηµαντικώνúηµιών στïυς ανασæάλιστïυς καταθέτες τηςΤράπεúας Κύπρïυ καθώς η τράπεúα δεν θαέøει πρÞσâαση σε κρατική ενίσøυση σύµæωνα

µε τï πακέτï διάσωσης ύψïυς 10 δισ. ευρώ.Ùσïν αæïρά την πώληση τïυ ελληνικïύ

δικτύïυ καταστηµάτων της ΕλληνικήςΤράπεúας, πïυ θα έøει απïτέλεσµα µια ενδε-øÞµενη µείωση των ριψïκίνδυνων στïιøείωνενεργητικïύ, ï ïίκïς Fitch σηµειώνει Þτιαυτές ïι εêελίêεις µπïρïύν να στηρίêïυν τηνκεæαλαιακή θέση της τράπεúας, ενώ ïι κατα-θέτες µπïρεί να είναι κάπως πιï πρÞθυµïι νασυνεøίσïυν τη øρηµατïδÞτηση της τράπεúας,ως απïτέλεσµα τïυ γεγïνÞτïς Þτι η ΕλληνικήΤράπεúα δεν περιλαµâάνεται µέøρι σήµερασε ïπïιαδήπïτε µέτρα εêυγίανσης.

MÂÙ¿ ·fi ÂÈÚ·Ì·Ùfi˙ˆÔ Ë ∫‡ÚÔ˜ ¤ÁÈÓÂ ÚfiÙ˘ÔΠïλλïί είναι αυτïί πïυ είπαν Þτι η Κύπρïς

øρησιµïπïιήθηκε ως πειραµατÞúωï απÞ τηνΕυρωúώνη µέøρι την ïριστική συµæωνία γιατην ïικïνïµική στήριêη της. ΩστÞσï ï επικε-æαλής τïυ Eurogroup ΓερïύνΝτάισελµπλïυµ, æαίνεται να έøει άλληάπïψη.

Ùπως δήλωσε τï πρÞγραµµα διάσωσηςπïυ συµæωνήθηκε για την Κύπρï συνιστάένα νέï πρÞτυπï για την επίλυση τραπεúικώνπρïâληµάτων στην ευρωúώνη και άλλεςøώρες µπïρεί να øρειαστεί να αναδιαρθρώ-σïυν τïυς τραπεúικïύς τïµείς τïυς.

“ΑυτÞ πïυ κάναµε είναι αυτÞ πïυ απïκα-λώ απώθηση κινδύνων”, δήλωσε ï ÃλλανδÞςΥπïυργÞς Ãικïνïµικών ΓερïύνΝτάισελµπλïυµ, ï ïπïίïς ηγείται τïυΣυµâïυλίïυ των Υπïυργών Ãικïνïµικών τηςΕυρωúώνης, µετά πïυ επιτεύøθηκε η συµæω-νία για την Κύπρï.

«Αν υπάρøει κίνδυνïς σε µια τράπεúα, ηπρώτη µας ερώτηση θα πρέπει να είναι, τι θακάνετε εσείς στην τράπεúα γι` αυτÞ;Τι µπïρεί-τε να κάνετε για να ανακεæαλαιïπïιθείτεµÞνïι σας;» Αν η τράπεúα δεν µπïρεί να τï

καταæέρει, τÞτε θα µιλήσïυµε στïυς κατÞ-øïυς µετïøών και τïυς κατÞøïυς ïµïλÞγων,θα τïυς úητήσïυµε να συµâάλïυν στην ανα-κεæαλαιïπïίηση της τράπεúας, και αν είναιαπαραίτητï θα τï úητήσïυµε και απÞ τïυςκατÞøïυς ανασæάλιστων καταθέσεων” άνωτων 100.000 ευρώ.

«Αν θέλïυµε να έøïυµε έναν υγιή øρηµα-τïπιστωτικÞ τïµέα, ï µÞνïς τρÞπïς είναι ναπïύµε, ïίτα, εκεί Þπïυ αναλαµâάνεις κινδύ-νïυς, πρέπει και να τïυς αντιµετωπίúεις και,αν δεν µπïρείς να τïυς αντιµετωπίσεις, τÞτεδεν θα έπρεπε να τïυς είøες αναλάâει»,δήλωσε ï Ντάισελµπλïυµ.

“Αυτή είναι µια πρïσέγγιση πïυ πιστεύωÞτι τώρα πïυ âγήκαµε απÞ την αιøµή της κρί-σης, θα πρέπει να υιïθετήσïυµε”.

Ερωτηθείς τι σηµαίνει αυτή η νέα πρï-σέγγιση για øώρες της ευρωúώνης πïυ έøïυντραπεúικïύς τïµείς µε υψηλή µÞøλευση,Þπως τï Λïυêεµâïύργï και η Μάλτα, καθώςκαι για άλλες øώρες µε τραπεúικά πρïâλήµα-τα, Þπως η Σλïâενία, ï Ντάισελµπλïυµ είπεπως θα πρέπει να συρρικνώσïυν τις τράπε-úες.“Σηµαίνει, αντιµετώπισε τï θέµα πριν σïυ

δηµιïυργήσει πρÞâληµα. Ενίσøυσε τις τράπε-úές σïυ, ρύθµισε τα ισïúύγιά σïυ και συνειδη-τïπïίησε πως, αν µια τράπεúα έøει πρÞâληµα,η απάντηση δεν θα είναι πλέïν αυτïµάτωςÞτι θα έρθïυµε να εêαæανίσïυµε τï πρÞâλη-µά σïυ. Εσύ είσαι πïυ θα πρέπει να τï αντιµε-τωπίσεις”. Αυτή η αêιïσηµείωτη αλλαγή στά-σης, για την ïπïία ï Ντάισελµπλïυµ συµæώ-νησε πως πρÞκειται για µια στρατηγική στρï-æή εκ µέρïυς αυτών πïυ απïæασίúïυν τηνπïλιτική στην ΕΕ, έøει συνέπειες στï πώς θαανακεæαλαιïπïιïύνται ïι τράπεúες και στï

πώς θα αντιδρïύν ïι αγïρές.Ένα απÞ τα σηµαντικÞτερα âήµατα πïυ

έøει κάνει τα τρία τελευταία øρÞνια η úώνητïυ ευρώ ήταν η ίδρυση ενÞς µηøανισµïύδιάσωσης µε εγγυήσεις και κεæάλαιï 700 δις.ευρώ - τïυ Ευρωπαϊκïύ ΜηøανισµïύΣταθερÞτητας. Η πρïσδïκία ήταν Þτι ï ΕΜΣθα µπïρεί να ανακεæαλαιïπïιεί άµεσα απÞ ταµέσα τïυ 2014 τις τράπεúες της Ευρωúώνης.

Τώρα ï κ. Ντάισελµπλïυµ λέει πως ï στÞ-øïς είναι να µην øρειαστεί να øρησιµïπïιηθείπïτέ ï ΕΜΣ. “Θα πρέπει να επιτύøïυµε µιακατάσταση Þπïυ δεν θα øρειαστεί πïτέ ïύτενα σκεæτïύµε καν την άµεση ανακεæαλαιï-πïίηση”, δήλωσε.

“Πιστεύω πως η πρïσέγγιση πρέπει ναείναι, να αντιµετωπίσïυµε τα πρïâλήµατατων τραπεúών πρώτα µέσα στις τράπεúες,πριν αναúητήσïυµε δηµÞσια øρήµατα ή ïπïι-ïδήπïτε άλλï εργαλείï απÞ την πλευρά τïυδηµïσίïυ.

Ãι τράπεúες θα πρέπει âασικά να είναιικανές να σώúïυν τïν εαυτÞ τïυς ή τïυλάøι-στïν να αναδιαρθρώνïνται ή να ανακεæαλαι-ïπïιïύνται Þσï τï δυνατÞν περισσÞτερï”.

∂Ú·ÛÈÙÂ¯ÓÈÎ¤˜ ÎÈÓ‹ÛÂÈ˜ ·fi ÙÔ˘˜ ËÁ¤ÙÂ˜ ÙË˜ Â˘Úˆ˙ÒÓË˜

Ùπως και µετά την πρώτη απïρριæθείσασυµæωνία τïυ Eurogroup έτσι και τώρα στηΒρετανία, µετά τις πρώτες αντιδράσεις καιέντïνες επικρίσεις κατά της ευρωúώνης καιτης τρÞικα για τις εêελίêεις στην Κύπρï,εµæανίúïνται αναλυτές πïυ υπερασπίúïνταιτη συµæωνία, έστω και αν παραµένïυν η µει-ïψηæία.

Μετά τïν πρωθυπïυργÞ ΝτέιâιντΚάµερïν πïυ øαρακτήρισε καλή εêέλιêη τηνεπίτευêη συµæωνίας για την Κύπρï, εκæράúï-ντας τη øαρά τïυ για την εêαίρεση των µικρï-καταθετών, υπάρøïυν αναλυτές πïυ σøïλιά-úïυν øαρακτηριστικά Þτι η κατάσταση στηνïπïία έøει περιέλθει τï νησί δεν ïæείλεταιστη γερµανική «âαρâαρÞτητα», αλλά «στηνανευθυνÞτητα των ηγεσιών τïυ».

Στï κύριï άρθρï τïυς ïι ΦαϊνάνσιαλΤάιµς, πïυ έøïυν τηρήσει εêαιρετικά επικριτι-κή στάση απέναντι στïυς Ευρωπαίïυς εταί-ρïυς, σøïλιάúïυν Þτι «αν και λίγïι θα συµæω-νήσïυν στην Κύπρï, τï νησί πήρε την καλύ-τερη συµæωνία πïυ δικαιïύταν να περιµέ-νει». Τï άρθρï εêηγεί Þτι η Κύπρïς επέλεêετην υψηλïύ ρίσκïυ στρατηγική να úει εêαρ-τώµενï απÞ έναν τραπεúιτικÞ τïµέα πïλύµεγαλύτερï απÞ Þσï µπïρïύσε να στηρίêειτï κράτïς.

ΣυøνÞτερες και εντïνÞτερες είναιπάντως ïι επικρίσεις κατά της ευρωúώνης καιη διατύπωση αµæιâïλιών για τï µέλλïν τïυεγøειρήµατïς τïυ ενιαίïυ νïµίσµατïς.Τï ίδιïάρθρï της âρετανικής ïικïνïµικής εæηµερί-δας καταλήγει αναæέρïντας Þτι ïι ελπίδες να

êεπεράσει τï ευρώ µε επιτυøία την κρίσηøρέïυς υπέστησαν âαρύ πλήγµα λÞγω τïυ«ερασιτεøνισµïύ πïυ κÞâει την ανάσα» τïνïπïίï επέδειêαν ïι ηγέτες της ευρωúώνης.

Ã Τúέρεµι ΓïυÞρνερ στην ΝτέιλιΤέλεγκραæ πρïειδïπïιεί τïυς Ευρωπαίïυςεταίρïυς Þτι θα µετανιώσïυν για τη σκληρήτιµωρία πïυ επέâαλαν στην Κύπρï, καθώς ηέλλειψη αλληλεγγύης υπïνïµεύει την ïυσίατης ευρωúώνης.

Στï κύριï άρθρï της η εæηµερίδαΙντιπέντεντ τïνίúει Þτι ïι ενέργειες των ηγε-τών της ευρωúώνης στην Κύπρï άæησαν άθι-κτï τïν «τïêικÞ» δεσµÞ µεταêύ τραπεúών καικυâερνήσεων, απïδεικνύïντας Þτι «έøïυνµάθει πïλύ λίγα» απÞ τα πρïηγïύµενα øρÞνιατης κρίσης.

∞∞‡‡ÍÍËËÛÛËË ÙÙˆÓÓ ··ÈÈÙÙ‹‹ÛÛÂÂˆÓÓ ÛÛÙÙ·· ÎÎÔÔÈÈÓÓˆÓÓÈÈÎÎ¿¿ ··ÓÓÙÙÔÔˆÏÏÂÂ››··

Η ΜητρÞπïλη Ταµασïύ και Ãρεινής καιï ∆ήµïς Λακατάµιας δέøθηκαν περίπïυ 30νέες αιτήσεις για παρïøή δεµάτων µε τρÞ-æιµα απÞ τï κïινωνικÞ παντïπωλείï, τïïπïίï απευθύνει έκκληση για την πρïσæï-ρά κυρίως παιδικών τρïæών, απÞ εκείνïυςïι ïπïίïι âρίσκïνται σε καλύτερη ïικïνïµι-κή κατάσταση απÞ άλλïυς συµπïλίτες µας.

«Πέραν απÞ τις ïικïγένειες πïυ είναιστïυς αυτές τις λίγες µέρες επικïινωνïύνµαúί µας και άλλες ïικïγένειες για να τïυςδώσïυµε κάτι να πïρευτïύν και δεν θαøρειαστïύν êανά την âïήθειά µας, εæÞσïνλειτïυργήσει τï øρηµατïπιστωτικÞ σύστη-µα Þπως ïι ίδιïι µας λένε», είπε ï ΓεώργιïςΚïυννïύσιης, ∆ιευθυντής ΚïινωνικήςΑλληλεγγύης της ΜητρÞπïλης Ταµασïύκαι Ãρεινής.

27 MAΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013 ÌΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓÃΡΑ


µ·Ú‡ Ù›ÌËÌ· ı· ÏËÚÒÛÂÈ Ë §ÂÌÂÛfi˜Τη δυσκïλÞτερη ίσως περίïδï της θα âιώσει η ΛεµεσÞς,

ως τï κατεêïøήν κέντρï êένων επιøειρήσεων στην Κύπρï,πληρώνïντας τï µεγαλύτερï κÞστïς της ïικïνïµικής κρί-σης, δήλωσε ï ∆ήµαρøïς Ανδρέας Ìρίστïυ, ενώ την ίδιαώρα διαµηνύει πως, δεν θα πρέπει να σκύψïυµε τα κεæάλια,αλλά να εργαστïύµε για να επαναæέρïυµε τïν τÞπï σεκαλύτερες µέρες και να επανακτήσïυµε τη øαµένη εµπι-στïσύνη των επενδυτών µας.

Σύµæωνα µε τïν κ. Ìρίστïυ, τï τίµηµα απÞ τη συµæωνίαπïυ επιτεύøθηκε στï Eurogroup και την αναµενÞµενηεæαρµïγή τïυ µνηµïνίïυ, θα πλήêει ιδιαίτερα τη ΛεµεσÞ,καθώς αναµένεται Þτι µερίδα êένων εταιρειών θα εγκατα-λείψïυν τη øώρα, σηµειώνïντας πως, ήδη γίνïνται δελεα-στικές πρïτάσεις πρïς τις επιøειρήσεις αυτές «απÞ αυτïύςπïυ µας κατηγïρïύν για êέπλυµα âρώµικïυ øρήµατïς».

«Αναµένïυµε Þτι θα υπάρêει αύêηση της ανεργίας, µεί-

ωση στην επιøειρηµατική δραστηριÞτητα, περαιτέρω µείω-ση στην ïικïδïµική âιïµηøανία και άλλα», είπε ï ΑνδρέαςÌρίστïυ, πρïσθέτïντας Þτι ïι εêελίêεις απïτελïύν πλήγµακαι για τη µεγάλη ρωσική κïινÞτητα πïυ για øρÞνια δραστη-ριïπïιείται στην πÞλη και έøει αæήσει έντïνα τï στίγµα τηςστα κïινωνικά και πïλιτιστικά δρώµενα.

Τï κïύρεµα των καταθέσεων, συνέøισε, επηρεάúει καιτïν πρïγραµµατισµÞ τïυ Συµâïυλίïυ ΑπïøετεύσεωςΛεµεσïύ-Αµαθïύντας (ΣΑΛΑ), αæïύ υπïλïγίúεται Þτι, έργαύψïυς 30 εκ. ευρώ, δεν θα υλïπïιηθïύν σε αυτÞ στάδιï καιθα πρέπει να γίνει επανασøεδιασµÞς.

Στï πλαίσιï των πρïσπαθειών περισυλλïγής και εêïικï-νÞµησης πÞρων, ï ∆ήµïς Λεµεσïύ πρïγραµµατίúει να πάρειακÞµη αυστηρÞτερα µέτρα, τα ïπïία θα συúητηθïύν σεπρïσεøείς συνεδρίες τïυ δηµïτικïύ συµâïυλίïυ, ενώ Þπωςøαρακτηριστικά ανέæερε ï κ.Ìρίστïυ, τα µέτρα αυτά θα

είναι «µÞνï για να αναπνέïυµε πλέïν, να δïύµε πως θακρατηθïύµε στη úωή και πως πάει η κατάσταση και µετά,ανάλïγα µε τις δυνατÞτητες µας, θα κάνïυµε αυτÞ πïυµπïρïύµε».

Ã Ανδρέας Ìρίστïυ κάλεσε τïυς Λεµεσιανïύς να αντι-ληæθïύν Þτι «ïι λïγικές και αναµενÞµενες πρïσδïκίες απÞτï ∆ήµï δεν µπïρïύν να υλïπïιηθïύν για ένα µεγάλï διά-στηµα» υπïδεικνύïντας, πως αυτÞ δεν πρέπει να øρησιµï-πïιηθεί ως πρÞσøηµα για να σταµατήσïυν και ïι δηµÞτες ναανταπïκρίνïνται στις υπïøρεώσεις τïυς πρïς τï ∆ήµï.

Παράλληλα, συµπλήρωσε, θα πρέπει ï καθένας να æρï-ντίσει να λιγïστέψει τα âάρη πάνω στï δηµÞσιï τïµέα καιαντιστρÞæως, ενώ τÞνισε πως και ïι πïιï µικρές ατïµικέςενέργειες µπïρïύν να κάνïυν τη διαæïρά, æέρνïντας ωςπαράδειγµα την περαιτέρω ευαισθητïπïίηση σε θέµατακαθαριÞτητας και ανακύκλωσης.

¢È·Û˘ÓÔÚÈ·Î¿ ‰¿ÓÂÈ· $59,2 ‰È˜ ÚÔ˜ Î˘ÚÈ·Î¤˜ ÂÙ·ÈÚÂ›Â˜ ∆ιασυνïριακïί δανειστές, µε εêαίρεση αυτïύς απÞ τη

Ρωσία, είøαν 59,2 δισεκατïµµύρια δïλάρια εκκρεµών δανεί-ων πρïς εταιρείες στην Κύπρï στï τέλïς Σεπτεµâρίïυ, σύµ-æωνα µε τα στïιøεία της Τράπεúας ∆ιεθνών ∆ιακανïνισµών(BIS).

Στα στατιστικά στïιøεία της BIS, πïυ είναι η µÞνη πïυκαταγράæει τï διασυνïριακÞ δανεισµÞ σε Þλï τïν κÞσµï,δεν περιλαµâάνïνται δάνεια απÞ τη Ρωσία.

Ã ïίκïς αêιïλÞγησης Moody’s εκτιµά Þτι τα δάνεια πïυπαραøώρησαν ρωσικές τράπεúες σε ρωσικές εταιρείες πïυεδρεύïυν στην Κύπρï ανέρøïνταν στα 30-40 δισ. δïλάρια.Τα στïιøεία της BIS δείøνïυν Þτι δανειστές απÞ την Ελλάδακαι τη Γερµανία έøïυν τη µεγαλύτερη έκθεση στην Κύπρï,απÞ τις øώρες πïυ υπέâαλαν εκθέσεις.

Μερικές τράπεúες δεν απïκάλυψαν τα δάνειά τïυς στηνΚύπρï, αλλά η Ευρωπαϊκή Τραπεúική Αρøή δεν έøει υπïøρε-ώσει τις τράπεúες να ανακïινώσïυν µια ανάλυση των στïι-øείων µε αæïρµή τï τεστ αντïøής πïυ διενήργησε τï 2011στις ευρωπαϊκές τράπεúες.

Τï τεστ αντïøής έδειêε Þτι η Alpha Bank στην Ελλάδαείøε έκθεση 4,8 δις ευρώ στï τέλïς τïυ 2010, η ïπïία δια-µïρæώθηκε στα 4,6 δις ευρώ στï τέλïς Σεπτεµâρίïυ.

Η γερµανική HSH Nordbank είøε περίπïυ 6,1 δις ευρώσε επιøειρηµατικά δάνεια πρïς την Κύπρï στï τέλïςΣεπτεµâρίïυ, κυρίως για πλïία πïυ ανήκïυν σε γερµανικέςκαι διεθνείς επιøειρήσεις πïυ έøïυν εγγραæεί στην Κύπρï.

Ã ïλλανδικÞς Þµιλï ING είøε περίπïυ 900 εκ. ευρώέκθεση τïυ στï τέλïς τïυ περασµένïυ έτïυς σε εταιρείες

πïυ είναι εγγεγραµµένες στην Κύπρï. Η ιταλική IntesaSanpaolo ανακïίνωσε Þτι η έκθεση της σε δάνεια ήταν 138εκ. ευρώ.

Η âρετανική τράπεúα HSBC είøε µια καθαρή έκθεσηπερίπïυ 400 εκ. δïλάρια πρïς την Κύπρï στα τέλη τïυ 2012,η Barclays ανακïίνωσε Þτι η καθαρή έκθεση της ήταν 323εκ. στερλίνες και η RBS είøε δάνεια ύψïυς 377 εκ. στερλί-νες, ως επί τï πλείστïν επιøειρηµατικά δάνεια.

Τα ακÞλïυθα στïιøεία δείøνïυν την έκθεση øωρών σεδάνεια πρïς την Κύπρï στï τέλïς Σεπτεµâρίïυ (σε δισεκα-τïµµύρια δïλάρια)

Ρωσία 30-40, Ελλάδα 16,4, Γερµανία 7,6, Γαλλία 2,5,Ελâετία 2,2, Ηνωµένï Βασίλειï 2,2, Ãλλανδία 1,9, Αυστρία1,7, Ηνωµένες Πïλιτείες 1,7, Ιταλία 1,6, Σïυηδία 1,4

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Την πεπïίθηση Þτι «κάπïιïι πρέπει να κάτσïυν στï σκα-µνί» και να λïγïδïτήσïυν για τï ïικïνïµικÞ σïκ πïυ υπέ-στη η Κύπρïς εêέæρασε ï Αρøιεπίσκïπïς ΚύπρïυÌρυσÞστïµïς διαâεâαιώνïντας παράλληλα Þτι η Εκκλησίαθα σταθεί δίπλα στï λαÞ αυτές τις δύσκïλες για τïν τÞπïώρες.

Ερωτηθείς πως θα επηρεαστεί η Εκκλησία απÞ τις µετï-øές πïυ έøει στην Τράπεúα Κύπρïυ, ï Αρøιεπίσκïπïς εêέ-æρασε την πεπïίθηση Þτι τï κεæάλαιï πïυ είøε η Εκκλησίακαι πïυ ήταν, Þπως ανέæερε, πάνω απÞ 100 εκ. ευρώ, έøειøαθεί.

«Αλλά θα επιâιώσïυµε, η Εκκλησία πïλλές æïρές πώλη-σε και τα καντήλια της, έâαλε ενέøυρï και τα δισκïπÞτηρακαι Þµως επέúησε. ∆εν æïâάται η Εκκλησία, Þ,τι και να øάσειέøει τï λαÞ πïυ την αγαπά και την στηρίúει» είπε και τÞνισεπως η Εκκλησία θα σταθεί κïντά στï λαÞ, Þπως και ï λαÞςκïντά στην Εκκλησία, «και θα υπερâïύµε τις δυσκïλίες πïυαντιµετωπίúει αυτή τη στιγµή η πατρίδα µας».

Κληθείς να σøïλιάσει τη στάση των Ευρωπαίων εταίρωντης Κύπρïυ, ï Αρøιεπίσκïπïς εêέæρασε την πεπïίθηση πως

«δεν είναι η Ευρώπη πïυ πιστέψαµε και µπήκαµε µέσα Þτιθα τυγøάναµε κάπïιας âïήθειας, κάπïιας στήριêης» αλλάκαι πως «æαίνεται Þτι τα συµæέρïντα των µεγάλων θαπαραµείνïυν συµæέρïντα».

Ανέæερε ακÞµη Þτι τï πïσÞ τï ïπïίï øρειαúÞταν ηΚύπρïς, έναντι τïυ µεγάλïυ πρïϋπïλïγισµïύ της µεγάληςΕυρώπης ήταν ψίøïυλα και η Κύπρïς δεν έπρεπε να τύøειτέτïιας συµπεριæïράς.

Κληθείς να σøïλιάσει τï ενδεøÞµενï κάπïιïι να γνώρι-úαν και να µην µίλησαν ή και τï ενδεøÞµενï κάπïιïι να πιά-στηκαν αδιάâαστïι, ï Αρøιεπίσκïπïς εêέæρασε την πεπïί-θηση Þτι «κάπïιïι πρέπει να κάτσïυν στï σκαµνί» πρïσθέ-τïντας Þτι δεν µπïρεί να ταλαιπωρείται ï λαÞς και κανείςνα µην παθαίνει τίπïτα και να µην υπάρøïυν επιπτώσεις γιακανένα.

«Επιτέλïυς πρέπει να γίνει µια αρøή, Þσïι æταίνε πρέπεινα κάτσïυν στï σκαµνί και δεν είναι εκδικητικÞ αλλά νατιµωρïύµε τïυς άτακτïυς ‘ίνα και ïι λïιπïί æÞâïν έøïσιν’.Ùταν δεν τιµωρïύµε κανένα τï έγκληµα και η αδικία θασυνεøίúïνται» είπε.

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Ως τη µεγάλη πρïïπτική για τï αύριï øαρακτήρισε τï æυσικÞ αέριï ï ΥπïυργÞςΕµπïρίïυ, Βιïµηøανίας και Τïυρισµïύ Γιώργïς Λακκïτρύπης, υπïδεικνύïντας πως αυτή ηπρïïπτική θα πρέπει να διασæαλιστεί µε σύµπνïια και ïµÞνïια.

∆ιαâεâαίωσε παράλληλα πως κανένας σøεδιασµÞς δεν έøει αλλάêει Þσïν αæïρά τηνεκµετάλλευση των ενεργειακών πÞρων της Κύπρïυ.

Ερωτηθείς κατά πÞσï έøει αλλάêει κάτι σε σøέση µε την 2η επιâεâαιωτική γεώτρηση ηïπïία αναµένεται εντÞς Ιïυνίïυ, ï κ. Λακκïτρύπης êεκαθάρισε Þτι «δεν έøει αλλάêει τίπï-τα, δεν έøει αλλάêει κανένα σøεδιασµÞς µε τις εταιρείες µε τις ïπïίες έøïυν υπïγραæείσυµâÞλαια» και πως ï ίδιïς έøει συναντηθεί µε εκπρïσώπïυς Þλων των εταιρειών την περα-σµένη âδïµάδα «και επιâεâαιώνïυν τα θετικά τïυς σøέδια».

Ã ΥπïυργÞς Εµπïρίïυ úήτησε απÞ τïν κÞσµï να ακïλïυθήσει τις ïδηγίες τηςΚεντρικής Τράπεúας και απηύθυνε έκκληση τÞσï πρïς τïυς επιøειρηµατίες Þσï και πρïςτïυς ιδιώτες για ψυøραιµία. ∆ιαâεâαίωσε παράλληλα Þτι τï Υπïυργείï θα εêετάσει µε τηνΡΑΕΚ και την ΑΗΚ τρÞπïυς µείωσης της τιµής τïυ ηλεκτρικïύ ρεύµατïς και πως για τïσκïπÞ αυτÞ έøει ήδη úητήσει απÞ την ΡΑΕΚ να τïυ ετïιµάσει µια σøετική µελέτη έτσι ώστενα µειωθεί τï κÞστïς για επιøειρήσεις αλλά και για ευάλωτες ïµάδες. Είπε ακÞµη Þτι εêε-τάúïνται κάπïια πρïγράµµατα για µικρïµεσαίες επιøειρήσεις και άλλα πρïγράµµατα πïυνα πρïωθïύν την νεανική και γυναικεία επιøειρηµατικÞτητα.

°. ∫Ú¤ÌÂÚ: ªÂ›ˆÛË ÙÔ˘ Î˘ÚÈ·ÎÔ‡ ∞∂¶ Î·Ù¿ 10%

Τï ΑΕΠ της Κύπρïυ ενδέøεται να µειωθεί κατά 10% στα επÞµενα δύï µε τρία øρÞνια, εκτι-µά ï επικεæαλής ïικïνïµïλÞγïς της Commetzbank Γεργκ Κρέµερ, πρïσθέτïντας παράλληλαÞτι είναι ικανïπïιηµένïς απÞ τη συµæωνία για την Κύπρï. Θεωρεί απίθανï η Κύπρïς να øρει-αστεί και άλλη âïήθεια, συµπληρώνει Þµως Þτι δεν τï απïκλείει τελείως.

Σε δηλώσεις τïυ ï κ. Κρέµερ είπε Þτι «ï ïικïνïµικÞς τïµέας της Κύπρïυ είναι υπερδιï-γκωµένïς», πρïσθέτïντας Þτι «µε τις ριúικές αλλαγές στις δύï µεγαλύτερες τράπεúες ï τïµέ-ας επανέρøεται σε ένα πλαίσιï και αυτÞ σηµαίνει δυστυøώς Þτι θα øαθïύν µαúικά θέσεις εργα-σίας».

Εννïείται, συνέøισε, «Þτι η κυπριακή ïικïνïµία δεν θα καταρρεύσει, Þπως θα συνέâαινε ανδεν είøε επιτευøθεί συµæωνία στις Βρυêέλλες. Και µÞνï Þµως µε την απώλεια θέσεων εργα-σίας στïν ïικïνïµικÞ και τραπεúικÞ τïµέα, η κυπριακή ïικïνïµία θα συρρικνωθεί σηµαντικά».

«ΑυτÞ µπïρεί να σηµαίνει για τα επÞµενα δύï µε τρία øρÞνια ακÞµα και συνïλική συρρί-κνωση τïυ ΑΕΠ κατά 10%» είπε.

Παράλληλα, ï επικεæαλής ïικïνïµïλÞγïς της δεύτερης σε µέγεθïς γερµανικής τράπεúας,κάνïντας έναν απïλïγισµÞ για την συµæωνία για την Κύπρï ανέæερε Þτι είναι θετικÞ Þτι ηΛευκωσία κατέληêε σε συµæωνία µε τïυς εταίρïυς «απïτρέπïντας έτσι µια øρεïκïπία και τηνκατάρρευση τïυ τραπεúικïύ συστήµατïς, πïυ θα ïδηγïύσε σε έêïδï απÞ τï ευρώ».

Global real estate to grow in Americas, EMEAThe general mood of investors for global commercial real

estate market is more risk-averse than it once was, according toan industry survey by Colliers International. A year ago,investors were more optimistic about the European economyand not so preoccupied with the American fiscal cliff. Yet,despite this mood swing, Colliers backs this sentiment expectingpositive news to take place in the coming year.

For the commercial property sector, beneficiaries of the cur-rent environment will include office properties in global safe-haven cities such as London and New York and industrial prop-erties in global transportation centers that have enacted infra-structure investments, such as U.S East Coast ports includingBaltimore, Charleston and Miami, which have invested the cap-ital to prepare for the widening of the Panama Canal.

Colliers’ key Global predictions for 2013 include:U.S. GDP Growth Will Stumble, then Recover: 2013 will

be the third consecutive year of 2-2.5 per cent GDP growth. Themajority of growth will occur in the second half of the year whenthe fiscal cliff threat and ILA East Coast port strike are in ourrear-view mirrors.

Labor Disputes Will Cause Trade Disruptions:Disagreement between management and labor, for a variety ofcauses, will affect economic growth in the coming year. Acrossthe globe there are a number of issues in ports, the most highprofile of which can be seen in the US, China and the PanamaCanal. Europe can also expect labor flare ups in struggling Spainand Greece. In France, new austerity measures could also sparkpublic sector strikes.

India’s GDP Will Beat Forecaster Expectations: India’sGDP growth will reach 6.5% in 2013. Past growth forecasts havesuffered from downward revision owing to the lack of imple-mented reform measures expected from the current govern-ment. However, the Indian government has recently displayed akeen resolve to introduce numerous fiscal and economic meas-

ures. India’s central bank is expected to slash bank rates in Q12013, which will further foster growth.

China Will See Rising Demand for WarehouseDistribution Space: Relatively little land in China has been des-ignated for development into warehouse property. This con-strained new supply, combined with several demand side fac-tors, primarily a growth in China’s logistics market, will makeChinese warehouses a star performer in 2013.

Mexican Economic Growth Will Outpace U.S. andCanada: Mexico has seen three years of continuous growth andwe expect this emerging market to beat its northern neighboursin terms of percentage of GDP growth in 2013. Mexico’s GDP isexpected to grow by more than 3%, with economic stabilitythrough President Enrique Pena Nieto’s transition into power.

In EMEA specifically, Colliers has uncovered several key find-ings including:

European Bifurcation: Euro Area will see a further

North/South Split: Northern countries in the eurozone willcontinue to see stronger economic growth than their southernand peripheral counterparts, which will remain weak with localrecessions. The eurozone as a whole will post marginal 0.25%GDP growth in 2013, with business investment and occupierdemand gaining traction in the second half of the year.

EMEA Property Transactions will Grow by up to 10%: Weexpect transaction velocity to struggle in early 2013, but againmomentum through a modest economic recovery in the secondhalf of the year. New lending sources such as insurance compa-nies and mezzanine funds will continue to develop and partlyease the challenging lending environment. The year will endwith transaction volume as much as 10% greater than in 2012.

European Elections will not Threaten the Eurozone:While upcoming elections in Germany and Italy will prolonguncertainty and potentially create volatility in investment mar-kets, they do not pose a true threat. Germany’s support of theeurozone will continue post-election. The risk that Italy’s Aprilelections will fail to produce a government willing to continueon the reform path is also low. Mario Monti has brought stabili-ty and confidence back to Italy and it is unlikely that Berlusconiwill return to power. We expect a center-left government inItaly’s future and with it a continuation on the reform path.

Capital will Seek Safety in London: Colliers’s 2013 GlobalInvestor Sentiment Survey reported that more than half (56%)of EMEA investors surveyed think it a good time to invest in theregion and 59% plan to expand theur portfolios. For most ofthese investors Paris, German core cities and especially Londonare safe havens they will choose for capital protection. EMEAinvestors seek liquid and transparent markets with a qualitystock of investment properties. Because London is ouside theeurozone, it is especially attractive in these times of euro uncer-tainty. Investors are willing to trade relative security for loweryields.


financialmirror.com | PROPERTY | 17

Li Ka-shing sounds warning over volatile Hong Kong property

A series of tightening measures have put the brakes on HongKong’s overheated property sector, forcing developers to cutprices and prompting a warning from Asia’s richest man Li Ka-shing: speculators stay away.

Developers say a sixth round of cooling measures imposedlast month to rein in prices and to avoid an asset bubble are nowhaving an impact on sales. “If you are speculating, I would sug-gest that you stay away in such a volatile market because no oneknows what will happen next,” Li told a news conference afterhis company Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd announced its firstannual decline in net profit in five years.

“Look at your pocket first and don’t take risks,” Li said.In late February, Financial Secretary John Tsang imposed a

new round of steps to curb prices that have doubled since 2008,saying they were needed to keep the potential economic riskfrom spreading in the financial hub.

The new measures included higher stamp duties and homeloan curbs on property transactions.

In the first three weeks of March, second-home transactionsplunged to their lowest since the outbreak of Severe AcuteRespiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003, when Hong Kong’s realestate market hit an all-time low, according to data from prop-erty agent Midland Realty.

“We only recorded two deals from the ten large-scale residen-tial estates during the past two weeks,” said Wong Leung Sing,analyst at Centaline Property Agency. “It has never been so bad.

“The market might head in two different directions: Prices

stay the same with a plunge in transactions, or prices will justcollapse,” Wong said, adding that home prices may drop asmuch as 20% in the second quarter.

Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd, the world’s No.2 propertycompany by market value, has also cautioned about the impactof the tightening measures and lowered its sales target for thisfinancial year by 9%.

Analysts say Cheung Kong has been forced to cut prices toboost sales in a lethargic market.

Cheung Kong, Hong Kong’s second-largest property devel-oper after Sun Hung Kai Properties, cut the price of a new proj-ect in the city by 6 to 17%, according to Macquarie EquitiesResearch.

Cheung Kong on Tuesday logged a 30% fall in 2012 net prof-it from a year earlier, although the total net profit of HK$32.2bln ($4.1 bln) beat analysts’ expectations.

Over the past three years, property prices have surged inHong Kong, one of the world’s most expensive property mar-kets, on ultra-low interest rates, tight supply and abundant liq-uidity.

CORRECTION ON THE CARDSAlong with government tightening, a number of banks raised

mortgage rates by 25 basis points earlier this month.“We think the rate hike has psychological impact more than

actual impact to buyers,” Dennis Wu, research analyst at PhillipSecurities, wrote in a note last week.

Wu said a big drop in property prices in the past was onlytriggered by major events, such as the financial crisis in 1997and the SARS outbreak in 2003.

“But in view of property prices at historically high levels, gov-ernment damping non-user demand and some property devel-opers offering a price discount, we maintain a 5 to 10% reason-able correction forecast for 2013 property prices.”

Despite signs of slowdown, the Centa-City Leading Index, awidely used indicator of the city’s residential price trends, is nowat a record 123.7. That’s 1.7% higher than mid-February.

Property developers in the Chinese special administrativeregion have so far seen limited impact from ongoing govern-ment tightening.

On Monday, Henderson Land Development Co Ltd recordeda 28% year-on-year rise for 2012 underlying profit, while AgileProperty Holdings Ltd’s net profit rose 22% during the sameperiod.

Henderson said in statement the cooling measures hadresulted in a moderate downtrend in property prices and a dras-tic drop in property transactions.

UK March house prices see rise biggest in 3 yearsHouse prices in England and Wales posted their biggest

month-on-month gain in three years in March, driven by increas-es in London. Prices rose 0.3% from February, the biggestincrease since March 2010, according to a survey by Hometrack, aproperty analysis firm. In year-on-year terms house prices wereflat, the first time they have not fallen since September 2010.

Britain’s housing market has been given a boost by the launchlast year of the Funding for Lending Scheme under which theBank of England provides banks with cheap funding to increase

loans for homebuyers and businesses.Last week, finance minister George Osborne announced fur-

ther measures, including government guarantees for up to 130bln pounds’ worth of mortgages. In London, prices jumped 0.7%in March from February and in the rest of England and Walesthey rose in a fifth of postcode areas, the highest percentage forthree years, according to Hometrack’s survey.

Prices fell in only one region, the north east.Driving up prices was a 19% increase in demand - as meas-

ured by the number of potential buyers registering with estateagents - in the past two months while the number of homes forsale rose 13% in the same period, Hometrack said.

Its survey is based on responses from estate agents and sur-veyors across England and Wales. Other house price measureshave shown signs of a recovery. Mortgage lender Halifax said ear-lier this month that in the three months to February, house priceswere 1.9% higher than a year ago, the third successive increase inthis measure.

I’ve expressed on many occasions in thiscolumn how closely connected 21st centuryeconomies are. The Eurozone normallysupports my argument, with the continentserving as clear example of intertwinedeconomies impacting on one another. I stillstand by my assertion. Countries today areas interdependent as they have ever been.However, multiple recent events serve asreminders that despite all our common ties,different countries in the EU are experienc-ing the recession and recovery very differ-ently.

German investor confidence climbedunexpectedly last week to its highest point inthree years, a possible indicator thatEurope’s largest single economy is returningto growth. The ZEW Centre for EuropeanEconomic Research revealed that its month-ly index of investor and analyst expectationsincreased to 48.5, the highest level sinceApril 2010, surprising economists who hadpredicted its fall.

This is not stand-alone good news for the

country. The Bundesbank predicts that theeconomy will expand in this first quarter of2013, reversing the trend of its 0.6pc con-traction in the final quarter of 2012. Businessconfidence improved too in February, andunemployment fell. Elsewhere in the EU, itwas announced that Switzerland’s economyenjoyed 0.2pc growth in the fourth quarter,boosted by consumer spending.

Yet, in stark contrast, multiple Eurozoneeconomies are on very shaky ground. Thepositive trends observed in the financial mar-kets, which have been played up by Draghi,President of the European Central Bank,have not yet filtered down to citizens andbusinesses. At the same time as political tur-moil in Italy, Cyprus banks have been dis-cussing a bailout, sending the euro to itslowest level of the year so far. In theNetherlands, unemployment is at a peak andhouse prices have experienced the greatestannual drop since 1995. French unemploy-ment is at a 13-year high. According to thelatest PMI survey, the gap between the conti-nent’s two biggest economies, Germany andFrance, is at its widest since the surveysbegan in 1998.

It is for the rest of Europe to look toGermany for inspiration, scrutinise its eco-nomic policies, pinpoint exactly what works,and apply what’s applicable. Yet it is alsoimportant to consider Germany’s current

strength lies largely in factors that existedprior to the recession, and also in its imme-diate response to the fiscal situation in early2009. Let me elaborate.

The country has long had relatively lowlevels of private debt. The rest of the conti-nent may have taken advantage of cheapcredit throughout the 1990s and 2000s, butGermans are culturally uneasy with the con-cept of borrowing money. Companies andindividuals lived and spent within theirmeans, and so did not need to cut spendingto reduce debt levels when banks stoppedlending in the aftermath of the recession.

Turn to exporting, and a German strong-point, and it has certainly benefitted from theEuro’s weaknesses. Its products are nowcheaper and more attractive to overseas con-sumers than if it were still using thedeutschmark. The country also profits frombetter exposure to the emerging Asianeconomies than its major European counter-parts, and will continue to benefit fromincreased demand there.

A great credit to the German educationalsystem, and something worth adopting, isthe way it attaches less stigma to vocation-al and technical training than in many othercountries. As a result, young adults have abreadth of talents when they enter theworkplace, and have the skills needed tomeet the country’s well established manu-

facturing sector.Its attitude to employment is also mature,

with strong relationships and levels of trustin place between employers and their work-ers. As the recession hit, the Governmentmade great efforts to maintain employmentlevels, and were highly successful in doingso, despite a reduction in hours for manyworkers.

As Cyprus, and Europe as a whole, rushesto find solutions to its current debt crisis,and evaluate the successes of various poli-cies, there is a great focus on the present.That is undeniably important. But there’s abigger picture and a long-term lesson here.As integrated as EU economies are, andDraghi’s vision for a single supervisor acrossthe continent would further this, we don’t allhave to fall together. Individual countriesalso have a responsibility to start implement-ing policies that will create stability and pro-tection for themselves.

The euro languished near four-monthlows against the dollar on Tuesday, heldback by fears that future euro zone bankrescues could impose a burden on deposi-tors, while the yen struggled after Japan’scentral bank chief reaffirmed a commit-ment to bold easing.

The common currency rose 0.2% to$1.2873 after having hit a low near $1.2829on Monday, its lowest level since November22.

On Monday, the euro tumbled after thehead of the Eurogroup, JeroenDijsselbloem, said the rescue plan agreedfor Cyprus will serve as a model for dealingwith future banking crises. He laterappeared to backtrack, saying Cyprus was aspecific case with exceptional challenges.

“While these comments were partlyretracted, markets have interpreted themessage as an indication that private sector

bail-ins will need to play a greater role inany future bail outs,” said VassiliSerebriakov, strategist at BNP Paribas.

The euro’s sharp falls against the yen,sterling, Swiss franc and Australian dollaron Monday were exacerbated by specula-tion of a credit rating downgrade for Italy,

which is struggling to form a governmentafter an inconclusive election last month.

On Tuesday, the euro saw lacklustergains against the dollar and the yen. Thesingle currency rose 0.2% to 121.29 yen,staying above Monday’s one-month low of120.08 yen. The dollar held steady at 94.20yen, finding some support after the new

Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda,reaffirmed his commitment to bold mone-tary easing to achieve 2 percent inflation.

The yen is still searching for fresh impe-tus to weaken after reaching a 3-1/2-yearlow of 96.71 against the dollar on March 12.A near-term focal point is the BOJ’s next

policy meeting on April 3-4.Many expect the bank will expand its

stimulus programme at the next sched-uled meeting on April 3-4, or even earlier,and will be keenly watching new BOJ gov-ernor Haruhiko Kuroda’s parliamentarytestimony.

Meanwhile gold inched down onTuesday toward a key resistance level of$1,600 per ounce as safe-haven demandebbed after Cyprus clinched a last-ditch res-cue deal, but lingering concerns about thehealth of euro zone’s banking systemchecked losses.

While Cyprus’ deal with internationallenders to shut down the country’s secondlargest bank in return for 10 billion eurosin rescue funds removed the immediaterisk of a financial meltdown, investorswere worried this could set a new prece-dent in restructuring the euro zone bank-ing sector.

Gold, which typically benefits from eco-nomic uncertainty, pushed to a three-weekhigh above $1,616 an ounce last week amidworries around the Cyprus bailout. Itdropped to a 1-1/2 week low of $1,589.49on Monday after Cyprus’ 11th-hour deal.

Euro steady as Cyprus deal stings

Disclaimer: The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.

Watching the German economy

President, Banc De Binary

By Oren Laurent


18 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

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Who Pays The Piper?

One of the many unanswered questions surrounding theeurozone has always been—who would pay for systemic largelosses in a banking system? In the US, we always knew that thefederal government, through the insurance payments leviedvia the FDIC, would guarantee all small depositors. In Europemeanwhile the eurocrats issued a post-crisis pan-Europeanpromise that every deposit up to €100,000 was guaranteed;even if it was left unclear who would pay for that guarantee ina time of crisis. Then the Cyprus crisis occurred and on firstattempt the eurocrats tried to backtrack on the €100,000promise. Given the uproar, they backtracked again (the euro-crats are nothing if not flexible with the rules) and came upwith a very European solution: soak the rich!

So we now know that, in Europe, big depositors are thefirst in the line of fire to ensure that small depositors do notsuffer losses. Needless to say, this raises the question of whowants to be a big depositor in a weak bank in a countryundergoing a secondary depression

This “soak the rich” option also makes one wonderwhether the EU is now blatantly against the financial indus-try? This is a very important question for, in any country, thebanks and the government are de facto joined at the hip,dependent on one another to deliver a stable outcome for theunderlying economy.

However, in the past month, it seems that the EU hasopened a multi-front attack on the financial industry. First,there was the EU laws against bank bonuses. Then came theproposals to also cap the bonuses of UCITS fund managers(as everyone remembers the 2008 crisis was triggered by allthe cowboy unit-trust managers, doing such things as buy-ing and selling stocks and bonds!) And now, in the past week,EU policymakers have cheerily taken down an offshore bank-ing centre? This is not a comforting pattern.

EU policymakers are probably not evil henchmen set ondestroying the financial industry (even if it often looks thatway from the City of London). The more likely explanation isthat EU policymakers are simply ignorant of how financialmarkets work. For example, the fact that the two largest

Cypriot banks’ London branches have remained openedthrough the past week, allowing large depositors to take outmillions of euros, hints that Europe’s policymakers are sim-ply clueless when it comes to how financial markets work.This also means that whatever pound of flesh the EU thinksit will be getting by wiping out the large depositors couldturn out to be on the light side.

Or, for a second example of cluelessness, what could rivalMonday’s declarations by the Dutch finance minister that theCyprus bailout set a new “template” on how to deal with bustbanks, namely make the rich depositors pay for the littledepositors? What large depositor in a troubled bank in acountry going through a secondary depression will want tostick around for that deal? We would venture that the nexttime that “solution” is applied, the eurocrats will find that thelarge depositors will not have waited around to get fleeced. Infact, as mentioned above, it might not even work this time(i.e., Cyprus), let alone the next one.

Going one step beyond the ignorance of how financialmarkets work, what seems profoundly shocking is the lack ofrecognition of this ignorance. Place yourself back in the fallof 2008. As the financial crisis was unfolding, the likes ofJohn Mack, Jamie Dimon, John Thane and other bankingheads were asked to meet at the New York Fed, the USTreasury or even the US Congress on a regular basis toexplain what was unfolding (and what they planned to doabout it). Meanwhile, how many times have the heads ofSantander, Intesa, SocGen, Deutsche Bank, etc., been calledin to explain what was going on, or for them to give theirviews on what should be done? If asked, perhaps these CEOswould have said that:

a) European banks are much more dependent on depositsthen their US counterparts.

b) Owners of large deposits are likely to be more riskaverse and much more active in moving their money thansmall retail savers (for whom moving money from one coun-try to the next presents high costs and almost insurmount-able hurdles). And this for obvious reasons: a 40% haircut on$1,000 is unpleasant but it’s not going to change anyone’slife. But a 40% haircut on a pensioner’s life savings of$500,000 will have a huge impact—and a 40% haircut on anymiddle-sized company’s $10mn payroll will be enough tobankrupt the business. In fact, this simple reality brings us

back to Mark Twain’s advice that it is always better to taxpoor people as there are so much more of them—unfortu-nately, Europe keeps going the other way, with devastatingconsequences.

c) For these reasons, regulators and governments havenever in living memory allowed big banks to default on theirdepositors, regardless of the wording of formal deposit insur-ance contracts. If this implicit guarantee is now removed inEurope (and it sure looks like it has been), then we shouldexpect a big shift of large deposits out of the banks and intogovernment bonds or credit market instruments. d) This will prove very problematic, especially given the newBasel III regulations which encouraged a funding modelwhereby banks should rely more on deposits and less onbonds.

e) As savings shift out of banks and into credit markets,the “German bank” model based on bank-financing of indus-trial companies and long-term creditor-debtor relationshipswill inevitably erode, to be replaced by the Anglo-Saxonmodel credit-market financing along with the short-termismwhich it implies.

In other words, the law of unintended consequences is atwork: the eurocrats will end up with exactly the opposite ofthe financial system they wanted. Either that, or theEuropean banks will end up having to be nationalized ingreat numbers. These two possible outcomes seem to be thelogical consequence of the EU’s very unfriendly financial sec-tor policies.

Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research


financialmirror.com | MARKETS | 19

US wage growth is back!

Yesterday investors were pleasantly surprised by a retailsales report that showed a 1.1% MoM increase in the headlinenumber, better than the expected 0.5% gain and the best read-ing since September of last year. This is especially hearteningsince many analysts feared consumption would weaken in thefirst quarter, what with all the tax increases and the ongoingsequester process. So how can we explain this resilience?

First, as we highlighted earlier, the positive wealth effect ofrising asset values may be helping to boost spending prowess.But recently there is another, and perhaps far more interest-ing, development: the fact that US wage growth turned acorner and is moving higher. Indeed, US hourly earnings aregrowing at a pace of 2% YoY and have been rising for fourconsecutive months—such an acceleration has not been seensince late 2005. Now granted, this wage growth is hardlybreathtaking, but nevertheless we believe this is an importanttrend to follow. After all, as the chart makes clear, wagestrends tend to move in long cycles and do not swing aroundvery much. As such, we could be at the start of a larger move.If sustained, this could have a number of important implica-tions:

- There’s less slack in the US economy than commonlyassumed. If we were truly facing the tremendous deflationaryforces that the Krugmanites out there keep warning us about,would wage growth be accelerating? To us, there is a betterexplanation for rising wages even in the face of still fairly highunemployment. The natural unemployment rate was likelykept artificially low in the boom years, by negative real rates

and an obscenely leveraged housing bonanza. Today, thingsare very different and as such the natural rate of unemploy-ment is likely to be higher. It therefore follows that the slackin the job market may be less than anticipated—and thusaccelerating wage growth is not that surprising. This is anoth-er way to say that we have had a permanent loss of GDP andthe “output gap” is not as wide as some would have it.

- Support for consumption. Obviously, decent wagegrowth should boost consumption. So if this trend is sus-tained, consumer discretionary stocks should benefit. Itwould also make us more comfortable with the current hous-ing recovery, since it would then be supported by risingincomes and not just easy money.

- A potential margin squeeze.Rising wages are not good news forcorporate margins. But this doesnot necessarily mean weaker earn-ings trends. If consumption picksup, then we should see strongertop-line growth, which could verywell overwhelm any margin com-pression from a higher wage bill.From 1994 to 1998, wage growthrose from 2.4% YoY to 4.5% YoY.Meanwhile, during that same peri-od, US corporate profits doubledand the S&P 500 tripled.Incidentally, that burst of wagegrowth came as the US economyhad started to heal after the savingsand loan crisis, another very severebalance sheet recession. We are notsaying that stock markets are going

to triple from here on. Only that it may be a mistake to auto-matically assume weaker earnings growth at this point in thecycle.

- Inflation, Fed policy and the US dollar. It is much toosoon to speak of a potentially inflationary impact of wagegrowth. At just 2%, this simply is not an issue yet. Havingsaid that, the US dollar jumped by almost +0.5% after yester-day’s retail sales data. At the very least, we would expect thatif wage growth continues to pick up, then the Fed is likely tomove away from extremely easy policy settings, to just veryvery easy. And this should be bullish for the US dollar goingforward.

Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in partic-ular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particularcircumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professionaladvisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go downas well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance.Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations.Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and ExchangeCommission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.

www.marcuardheritage.com

Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research

Date Country Detail Forecast PreviousMAR 27 EUR German Gfk Consumer Climate due 9.00am 5.9 5.9MAR 27 GBP Current Account due 11.30am in Sterling pound -12.8B -12.8BMAR 27 GBP Final GDP growth Q/Q due 11.30am -0.3% -0.3%MAR 27 EUR Italian 10-year bond auction 4.83/1.7MAR 27 US Pending Home Sales M/M due 4.00pm -0.30% 4.50%

MAR 28 EUR German Retail Sales M/M due 9.00am -0.50% 3.00%MAR 28 EUR German Unemployment Change due 10.55am -2k -3kMAR 28 US Weekly Unemployment Claims due 3.30pm 340k 336kMAR 28 US Final GDP growth Q/Q due 3.30pm 0.50% 0.10%MAR 28 US Final GDP Price Index Q/Q due 3.30pm 0.90% 0.90%MAR 28 US Chicago PMI due 4.45pm 56.5 56.8

MAR 29 EUR Good Friday - Banks closed in Europe MAR 29 US Core PCE Index M/M due 3.30pm 0.10% 0.10%MAR 29 US Personal Spending M/M due 3.30pm 0.60% 0.20%MAR 29 US Personal Income M/M due 3.30pm 1.00% -3.60%

MAR 29 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment due 4.55pm 73.2 71.8

MAR 31 EUR Daylight Saving Time Shift

Indicated times are Cyprus time Source: Eurivex

Weekly Economic Calendar


20 | WORLD | financialmirror.com

Sitting on too much money, Norway risks going off course

Middle East-style oil wealth combined with a generousNordic welfare model is slowly throttling big chunks of Norway’seconomy, threatening western Europe’s biggest success story.

On the surface, Norway is the envy of the world: growth isstrong, per capita GDP has exceeded $100,000 and the nationsits on a $700 bln rainy day cash reserve, or $140,000 per man,woman and child.

But it may just be too much money as Norwegians, morekeen on leisure and family life are working less and less.

Immigration is not filling the gap in the skilled part of theworkforce, so productivity is stagnating, wages are surging andfirms are pricing themselves out of their own market.

“Oil is a metaphor for winning the lottery,” said IvarFroeness, a sociology professor at the University of Oslo.“Affluence has slowly crept into society... people just don’t real-ly notice it because it’s been so gradual.”

“These days more people leave Oslo on Thursday afternoonthan on Friday, taking long weekends,” he said. “We may takefor granted that we have a house and a cabin in the mountain,and maybe another house on the beach.”

Wage costs are up 63% since 2000, about six times morethan in Germany or Sweden, while the employment rate, adjust-ed for part time work, is 61%, below rates anywhere in theNordics and even below Greece, the central bank says.

Still, unemployment is a barely visible 3% as more prefer parttime work. “Why should I work more when I don’t have to?”said Elise Bakke, 36, who recently cut her work day at a majortelecom firm to 6 hours. “Maybe it’s luck, maybe we earned it, itdoesn’t really matter. We have the money to live the Nordic life:go to the cabin, ski, bike, spend time with the children.”

The government recently warned that unless working hoursare increased by 10% over time, the state will eventually starteating into its savings. The central bank also warned that thewelfare model is simply encouraging people to leave the labourmarket. “The number of working hours for full time employeesin Norway have fallen by 270 hours a year since 1974,” saysJostein Hansen, director of employment policies at NorwegianHospitality Association. “Norwegians should follow Iceland’sexample and work 100 hours more a year.”

OIL UNDER THREATThe oil sector, the source of the problem, is also becoming a

victim of its own success.Aker Solutions, the nation’s top oil services firm, will hire

4,000 engineers this year but only a third will be Norwegians.A study commissioned by the government showed that by

2016, the country will have a shortage of 6,000 engineers as oilinvestment hits new records and oil firms tap reserves in areasonce thought close to depleted. Costs have risen so much, someoil services firms cannot compete at home.

Kvaerner, which builds heavy equipment like oil platforms,recently lost a key contract from state-controlled Statoil toDaewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering because it was tooexpensive. It was a just the latest of many setbacks for the firm.

“The Norwegian cost level is our challenge,” Jan ArveHaugan, its chief executive said. “High (quality) cannot out-weigh that price difference,” he said, adding its prices are 7-15%higher than its competitors’.

Norwegian Air Shuttle has threatened to move aircraft toThailand and operate to Europe with an Asian crew because itsays it can’t afford the Nordic costs.

Norway’s problems are not unique: Australia’s once-in-a-150-year mining boom has also skewed the economy, raising

wages, fuelling immigration and lowering work hours to a 30-year low as wealth grows.

Still, an average Australian works 19% more than aNorwegian, the OECD estimates. And Norway’s oil sectoraccounts for a fifth of the economy, three times as much asmining in Australia, generating a quarter of state the revenues.

Business groups say work hours have to be raised throughgovernment incentives, and benefits, particularly involving var-ious leaves, need to be reduced.

Though political parties generally agree, the topic is low onthe agenda, especially with elections looming in September.

IMMIGRATIONNorway has embraced immigration as a stop-gap measure

but it is only masking the problem, the central bank says.“Measured per capita, we do not generate more value today

than we did five years ago,” Norges Bank Governor OeysteinOlsen said in a speech recently.

Norway, with a population of 5 mln, attracts around 50,000immigrants each year, but productivity is not improving.

Norway’s egalitarian wage distribution pays low-skilledworkers well above the European average but pays the higher-skilled at, or even a touch below, international norms.

Quitting the Quota HONG KONG – On March 1, China’s State Council

announced a new batch of restrictions aimed at reining inproperty prices by curbing speculative demand. Themeasures include tighter limits on home purchases by non-locals in cities with excessive price gains, a reinforced 20%capital-gains tax, mandatory 70% down payments, and a 30%benchmark interest-rate premium for second mortgages.

While the previous round of housing-sector restrictions,implemented less than two years ago, dampened marketsentiment temporarily, it failed to curb rising property prices.Likewise, although the latest measures might have someimpact, cooling China’s turbulent property market – whichrelies on cheap credit – in the long term will requireaddressing underlying monetary-policy weaknesses.

In order to control the money supply, the People’s Bank ofChina (PBOC) has long used credit quotas as “windowguidance” to banks. The policy is rooted in central planning,which, three decades ago, led to artificially low prices and, inturn, to shortages of basic necessities and key productioninputs, such as grain and steel. As the free market developed,a dual-price system emerged, in which those with access toquota-allocated goods paid less. As a result, the governmentwas compelled to grant subsidies to the system’s “losers” –such as urban residents and state-owned enterprises (SOEs)– until strong supply responses to rising market priceseliminated the need for quotas on manufactured products.

A decade later, in response to the global financial crisis,China loosened credit quotas and planning controls on SOE-run local-government infrastructure projects. BetweenNovember 2008 and June 2009, China’s banks issued morethan ¥8.6 trillion ($1.3 trillion) in new loans. As a result, therate of credit growth increased from 14% in September 2008to 35% a year later, and property prices more than doubled inmany cities.

Excessively low interest rates have generated a mismatchbetween housing prices and the available supply, becausethey serve as hidden subsidies for those who can borrow – forexample, the rich and SOEs – and thus stimulate demand forluxury property. In order to curb this trend, policymakershave reverted to the quota as a macroeconomic tool, but thistime for housing credit.

Like quotas on manufactured products, these new quotas

are generating a dual-price allocation system, in which SOEscan borrow at significantly lower interest rates than smalland medium-size enterprises (SMEs), which must rely on theinformal market at interest rates as high as 2% monthly. Buteliminating quotas in order to allow prices to reach market-clearing levels is not an option this time, owing to thecomplexity and competitiveness of the real-estate and bank-credit markets.

Three major factors are impeding policymakers fromraising interest rates to market-clearing levels. First, thedomestic interest groups that benefit from low borrowingcosts have become a barrier to their liberalization. There is a

“common-sense consensus” among borrowers – in China, aswell as in highly indebted advanced economies – that raisinginterest rates would undermine GDP growth, employment,and asset prices.

Second, many argue that raising interest rates wouldtrigger a flood of speculative capital from low-yieldingadvanced economies. With the PBOC unable to sterilize theinflows, upward pressure on the renminbi’s exchange ratewould threaten competitiveness.

Finally, an inadequate understanding of structuralinflation (the growth in prices for non-tradable assets) hasgenerated the false belief that China can maintain similarlevels of inflation and exchange-rate stability as the OECDeconomies. As a result, over the last decade, the Chineseauthorities’ implicit target for annual inflation and currencyappreciation has been only about 3%.

But China has attained much higher GDP growth than theOECD economies, driven largely by the rapid productivitygains that characterize the initial “catch up” phase ofemerging-market development. As China continues toimplement market-oriented reforms, the prices of non-

tradable assets – such as property, natural resources, utilities,services, and wages – will continue to rise much faster thanin the OECD countries, until they eventually converge. Thisprocess will inevitably lead to higher structural inflation andcurrency appreciation in China.

If nominal interest rates are lower than the real return oninvestment – associated with GDP growth – the result isfinancial repression and increased income and wealthinequality. To avoid this outcome, as long as China’s GDPgrowth exceeds that of OECD economies, its nominalinterest rates must also be higher, its exchange rate must bemore flexible, and it must tolerate higher structural inflation.

Indeed, despite domestic resistance, the PBOC must raisenominal interest rates so that they are in line with structuralinflation. Such a move would deter excessive investment inproductive capacity, and ease the implementation of a moreflexible exchange-rate regime. At the same time, one needonly recall the damage that unregulated carry trades wroughton Asian economies in the 1990’s to understand why Chinamust erect barriers to protect its domestic markets frominflows of hot money.

The alternative to this price-oriented approach –continued dependence on the quota system – would incurconsiderable administrative expenses, efficiency losses, andsocial costs stemming from rent-seeking and corruption.Much like the quota system of 30 years ago, the currentreliance on quotas is unsustainable in the long term.

To manage exorbitant demand for financial and physicalassets, China’s leaders must address its root cause: the lowcost of capital. Doing so will require maintaining somecapital-account control, while raising interest rates tomarket-clearing levels. This, not the unsustainableimposition of quotas, is the real monetary-policy challengefacing China today.

Andrew Sheng, President of the Fung Global Institute, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and is currently an adjunct professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Xiao Geng is Director of Research at the Fung Global Institute.

© Project Syndicate, 2013.

By Andrew Shengand Xiao Geng

ANALYSIS


financialmirror.com | WORLD | 21

Easy Fed softens fiscal policy punch on U.S.

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive easing of monetary policyis proving surprisingly effective at blunting the blow to the U.S.economy from tighter fiscal policy, according to economistswho have been scrambling to raise their growth forecasts.

Economists had feared higher taxes and deep governmentspending cuts would stunt growth in the first quarter, but astring of strong economic data has so far proven them wrong.And they mostly blame the Fed.

“Monetary policy is beginning to gain some traction here,”said Tom Higgins, global macro strategist at Standish MellonAsset Management in Boston.

According to Higgins, if it were not for the monetarystimulus, the economy would probably be facing growth of a1% annual rate or less. As it is, he expects growth to come in ata 2.5% pace in the first quarter.

The U.S. central bank has held overnight interest rates nearzero since December 2008 and has pumped about $2.5 trln intothe economy by purchasing Treasury debt and mortgage-backed bonds in a bid to foster faster growth and lowerunemployment.

On Wednesday, it recommitted to plans to buy $85 blnworth of bonds each month and said it would keep buyingassets until it sees a significant improvement in the labormarket.

Those actions have helped put the economy in better shapeto deal with the end of a 2% payroll tax cut, higher tax rates forwealthy Americans and $85 bln in across-the-boardgovernment spending cuts known as the “sequester.”

The easy money stance has given a boost to interest ratesensitive sectors of the economy, such as autos and housing.

The commitment to easy policy also appears to be liftingbusiness confidence, which in turn is underpinning job growthand the stock market. Nonfarm payrolls increased 236,000 inFebruary and the jobless rate fell to a four-year low of 7.7%.

“The message from the data is that in the battle between

fiscal drag and monetary stimulus, the Fed is winning,” saidJim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High FrequencyEconomics in Valhalla, New York.

Stunned by a surprisingly strong report on retail sales lastweek, most economists rushed to raise first-quarter growthestimates. JPMorgan pushed theirs up by an eye-catchingeight-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3%, while GoldmanSachs increased theirs by three-tenths of a point to 2.9%.

Economic activity expanded at a meager 0.1% rate in thelast three months of last year, the slowest pace since the firstquarter of 2011.

MADE A MISTAKEEconomists also said they had been mistaken to believe that

businesses would retrench if it became clear deep governmentspending cuts were going to take hold.

They said they had simply been drawing on lessons learnedduring the acrimonious fight in 2011 to raise the government’sborrowing limit, a battle that hit confidence hard. “The chancewe decided to take was for a more upfront impact fromsequestration; in reality that is not what we are seeing,” saidAdolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist, Mesirow Financial inChicago. “Businesses have taken it at a more leisurely pace.”

Indeed, a Deloitte Growth Enterprise Services survey ofabout 1,000 mid-market executives this month found littleevidence the spending cuts were worrying businesses.

About 72% of respondents said sequestration would notaffect their businesses and 91% said they had not put off hiringbecause of the cuts. That could be an indication of theconfidence generated by the Fed’s willingness to aid theeconomy, economists say.

Also helping the economy is the fact that banks are startingto ease lending standards and household balance sheets haveimproved after being ravaged by the housing market’s collapse.

“What we have been seeing for a while is households haveworked down their debt loads and they are now starting toexpand their borrowing and, across the board, bank lending isincreasing,” said Steve Cunningham, head of research at the

American Institute for Economic Research in Great Barrington,Massachusetts.

“So monetary policy is becoming effective in that respect.”Fed data this month showed household debt in the fourth

quarter grew at its fastest pace since early 2008, while ameasure of the burden of carrying debt sank to a record low.

In addition, consumer credit has increased solidly from lastyear through January of this year and banks in January reportedstronger loan demand and easier credit standards.

Still, the economy is not out of the woods by any means.Part of the expected bounce back in growth this quarter will

come from a buildup in business inventories, which meanssecond quarter growth could fall short of the January-Marchrate. As a result of the economy’s firmer underlying strength,many analysts now estimate government budget cuts couldshave off about 0.3 percentage point from GDP this year, halfof what was predicted by the nonpartisan CongressionalBudget Office.

“The drag from sequestration is probably a little bit smallerthan we thought a month ago,” said Mesirow Financial’sLaurenti. “We have a better economy that is in a better positionto absorb a negative shock.”

BARCELONA – In recent months, the dichotomy betweenbooming financial markets, on the one hand, and sluggisheconomies and dysfunctional politics, on the other, has loomedlarge. Yet insufficient attention is being devoted to a critical fac-tor – time, and who controls it – that could well mean the dif-ference between an orderly global resolution of today’s growinginconsistencies and a return to a more troubled phase.

Markets have been understandably buoyant in the first quar-ter of 2013. Most economic data confirm that, after the traumacaused by the global financial crisis, the United States’ econo-my is healing, and doing so in an accelerated fashion.

The sequence is now well established. It started with largemultinational companies, which are on as solid a financial foot-ing as I can remember. Smaller firms are gradually recuperat-ing; banks have rebuilt their capital cushions and reduced theirdubious assets; the housing sector has stabilized; and a grow-ing number of households are reestablishing healthier balancesheets, especially as employment gradually picks up.

This private-sector recovery is helping governmentfinances. The US budget deficit has been on a downward trendfor now, helped by both higher revenues and lower pressure onspending (for example, payments to the unemployed have fall-en as joblessness has declined).

The healing process is also evident in Europe, though,unfortunately, it is effectively limited only to sovereign-bondmarkets. The real economy remains under enormous pressurein several countries, as economies contract and unemploymentremains alarmingly high.

After flirting with disaster last July, interest-rate spreads foreurozone bonds have generally been subdued, and financialsegmentation has been slowly reversed (that is, at least beforeEuropean officials embarked on the controversial path of tryingto impose losses on guaranteed bank deposits in Cyprus).Moreover, as Ireland’s highly successful ?5 billion ten-year bondissue in mid-March demonstrated, some countries are in theprocess of restoring normal access to capital markets.

The impact on markets of these trends has been tur-bocharged by central banks, which are risk markets’ bestfriends. This is not because they wish to play that role; rather,it is because higher asset prices are essential if central bankersstand any chance of delivering the desired economic outcomes

of higher growth and stronger job creation.This is most evident in the US, where markets love the

Federal Reserve’s trifecta of near-zero policy interest rates (neg-ative in real terms), aggressive forward policy guidance, andasset purchases – all of which push investors to take more risk.Markets also welcome the fact that the Fed’s hyperactive exper-imentation is forcing other central banks around the world topursue more expansionary policies.

Indeed, from the Bank of Japan’s dramatic policy U-turn tothe Bank of Mexico’s surprise interest-rate cuts, the Fed’sapproach is affecting central banks in a growing number of

countries. Pushed further away from best-case scenarios, theyare unable to ignore the global liquidity impact of the Fed’s poli-cies, yet they lack the right policy tools to address it.

The mix of endogenous healing and strong central-banktailwinds, including from a “whatever it takes” EuropeanCentral Bank, has also helped markets shrug off troubling polit-ical uncertainties. Be it the US Congress’s paralyzing polariza-tion or Italy’s protest vote against the established political order,politicians are being given time to overcome their dysfunction,thereby minimizing any immediate disruptive impact.

Understandably, investors have interpreted all of this as agreen light to take more risk. And with the hype this monthover eight successive records for the Dow Jones index (andmany other records around the world), excitement inducesmore investors to enter riskier asset markets.

The excitement is not anxiety-free, however, and rightly so.Investors worry about the longer-term consequences of politi-cal dysfunction, another year of European economic contrac-tion, disastrously high unemployment, unprecedented – andthus untested – central bank policies, and increasing global ten-

sions. And the recent bungling of the Cyprus rescue does nothelp. No wonder some have called the recent market rally “oneof the most unloved” in history.

This mix of excitement and anxiety is, in fact, a sign of thelooming crossroads that faces investors. One road, involving arelatively orderly handoff from policy-assisted recovery to self-sustaining growth, offers the possibility of even greater finan-cial rewards, as rapidly improving economic and political con-ditions validate current artificial pricing and drive it higher.

The other road is a lot less attractive. With insufficientendogenous healing and no economic escape velocity, theeffectiveness of central banks’ policies wanes and political dys-function increases, leading to financial losses, volatility spikes,and huge risk-management challenges.

Given current policy and political uncertainties – and themultiple equilibria that they entail – it is difficult to predict witha high degree of confidence which road eventually will be takenand when. Those who claim otherwise may well fail to appreci-ate fully the exceptional nature of the current situation.

In these circumstances, timing may not be everything, butit may prove to be a key determinant of the probabilities. If thejourney to the crossroads is accelerated by a large geopoliticalshock (originating in, say, the Middle East or North Korea)and/or a serious political breakdown in Europe (for example, ameltdown in Cyprus or prolonged political paralysis in Italy),the probability of taking the adverse path rises to an uncomfort-ably high level. If, however, central banks can contain domesticand global inconsistencies long enough, the combination ofendogenous healing and eventual political progress would sig-nificantly improve the probability distribution.

Have no doubt: today’s markets rely heavily on the oldadage that “time heals all wounds.” The timekeepers are centralbanks. But their control of the clock is less than perfect; and itwill become increasingly ineffective if economic improvementfaces additional political headwinds in the months ahead.

Mohamed A. El-Erian is CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, and the author of When Markets Collide.

© Project Syndicate, 2013.www.project-syndicate.org

Global Markets’ Time Factor

By Mohamed A. El-Erian

ANALYSIS


22 | WORLD | financialmirror.com

Second “Shareholder Spring” unlikely to bloom in Europel New UK law to give binding say on pay

While politicians and public have fulminated against lot-tery-sized pay awards in Europe’s boardrooms, fund firms,which wield the real power, are less concerned by such excess-es and unlikely to use new powers to revolt on remuneration.

Last year’s so-called “Shareholder Spring” against bosses’salaries in Britain toppled few CEOs, and institutionalinvestors typically prefer to keep battles with boards private.

“Generally there is a reluctance among UK and Europeanshareholders to vote against management,” said Louise Rouse,director of engagement with lobby group ShareAction.

A rapid rise in boardroom pay at a time of dwindling aver-age incomes and soaring unemployment has made remunera-tion a hot political topic, particularly in Europe, where taxpay-ers face years of austerity to help pay for bank bailouts.

Germany’s ruling coalition, facing an election inSeptember, recently agreed to give shareholders binding voteson bosses’ pay at listed companies, following the example ofBritain and Switzerland, whose citizens this month forcedpublic companies to give shareholders veto rights over execu-tive salaries.

EU member states and the bloc’s parliament, meanwhile,have finished draft legislation that will impose the world’stoughest limits on bankers’ bonuses.

Unlike the U.S., where the law limits investor access to topexecutives and therefore encourages public spats at AGMs,European investors can - and prefer to - voice their oppositionbehind closed doors.

And while the size of salaries and bonus packages paid tosome executives has horrified the general public, investors aremore concerned the award is in proportion with their returns.

“Our job as asset managers is not to serve as arbiters onwhat is fair and not fair in a societal context,” said GeorgeDallas, corporate governance director at F&C Investments.

SCRUTINY OF VOTESLast year, a number of high-profile shareholder votes

against pay forced the departures of some well-rewarded CEOs,including Sly Bailey of British newspaper group Trinity Mirror

and Andrew Moss of British insurer Aviva.But these were isolated revolts. Analysing 300 AGMs from

2012, shareholder advisory firm PIRC said the average level ofdissent against remuneration reports was 7.64%, comparedwith 6.4% in 2011.

Shareholders were also inconsistent in their attacks.WPP, the world’s biggest advertising company, suffered

defeat over its pay policy in part because CEO Martin Sorrellwas in line for a bonus of up to 500% of pay.

But only 11.8% of shareholders voted against oil firm BP’sremuneration report, despite a maximum potential award forCEO Bob Dudley of 923% of base salary.

In Switzerland, where over two thirds of voters backed thereferendum on executive pay - often referred to as “theMinder Initiative” because it was the brainchild of local busi-nessman Thomas Minder - investors have traditionally shiedaway from taking on the “fat cat” issue.

Of the top 100 Swiss companies, 49 already gave share-holders a non-binding vote on the pay of executives, butinvestors there have not been eager to vote remunerationreports down.

No fewer than 99.6% of shareholders approved Roche’spay plans at this month’s AGM, even though shareholdergroup Ethos said it was too lucrative and urged its rejection.

Some shareholder activists in Switzerland are doubtfulthat much will change even with the referendum. Under theproposals, Swiss pension funds will be forced to vote on payand publish how they voted, but other managers of bundledinvestors’ assets will not have to declare how they vote.

Under legislation to be implemented this year, Britishinvestors can choose to keep their votes private, stirring con-cerns that popular anger over high pay is less likely to betranslated into action in Europe’s largest equity market.

“We’re in favour of giving more power to shareholders,but we think it is essential those powers are used, and thereis nothing in the package to ensure that they are used,” saidRouse.

The European Commission is planning to introduce legis-lation this year giving shareholders a mandatory say on cor-porate pay in all 27 countries of the European Union.

REPUTATIONUnder the new law, UK companies will have to give a single

figure of total pay for each director to make comparison easier.“The key point is remuneration reports are now exceeding-

ly long, and I’m not sure, at the end of it, shareholders comeaway with any greater clarity on whether the incentiveschemes are an effective alignment and accountability mecha-nism,” said Simon Wong, partner at Investor Governance forOwners.

To improve their focus on corporate governance, more fundfirms are starting to collaborate, giving votes more weight.

“Shareholders are more aware of each others’ views so ourthinking is more aligned. Once that happens, you have morepower behind you. We always did exchange views, but we arenow much more aware of the need to flag concerns to oneanother if we want to see change,” said Anita Skipper, corpo-rate governance adviser at Aviva Investors Global ResponsibleInvestment team.

Veteran businessman Mike Darrington, who ran Britishbakery chain Greggs for almost 25 years and now heads pres-sure group “Pro Business Against Greed” believes one of thebest opportunities to cut CEO pay is when new people arehired.

“It is got to be a change in attitudes that gradually bringsthings down,” he said.

So far, evidence of a revolution is patchy.Man Group, the world’s second largest hedge fund, is limit-

ing cash bonuses to 250% of salary for top executives as part ofa change in policy under new CEO Emmanuel Roman.

Swiss bank UBS, meanwhile, gave its new investment bankchief a $26 mln golden hello even as it cuts 10,000 jobs.

At Barclays, while Antony Jenkins’s annual base CEO salaryof 1.1 mln pounds is nearly 20% less than predecessor BobDiamond’s 2011 equivalent, he could still earn 6.5 times thatin bonuses and long-term awards.

ANALYSIS

Britain eases rules for start-up banksl Could begin trading within 6 months, with reduced

capital requirements for first 3-5 years

Start-up banks in Britain will not need as muchcapital as their established rivals starting from April,Britain’s Financial Services Authority (FSA) said, in amove to boost competition.

Under pressure from MPs to increase choice in asector dominated by four banks, the FSA unveiledsweeping changes to authorise new entrants withinsix months, a process that currently takes a year ormore.

Capital requirements will be lighter for the firstthree to five years as long as a new bank can showdeposits are insured and that it can be wound upeasily without destabilising markets.

A new bank will need a core capital bufferequivalent to only 4.5% of its risk-weighted assets, alevel that will be increased as the bank expands.

This is well below the 7 to 9.5% that applies toBritain’s “big five” lenders with 83% of retailaccounts - HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, RBS andSantander UK.

There will also be reduced liquidity requirements,the FSA said.

“This has been a comprehensive review and wehave made some bold changes, ones that respond tothe difficulties faced by applicant firms,” FSAChairman Adair Turner said in a statement.

New entrants have already begun to surface in the

wake of the 2008 financial crisis, looking to fill thegap as the big banks focus on shrinking their balancesheets and building up capital reserves to meet newregulations.

Metro Bank became the first new high streetlender to emerge for over 100 years when it wasgranted a banking licence in 2010. Other newchallengers such as Aldermore and Shawbrook havealso emerged but have opted not to open branches.

Aldermore was founded in 2009 with backingfrom private equity firms AnaCap and MorganStanley Alternative Investment Partners. Its loanbook now totals over 2 bln pounds, and it is the sixth-largest lender in the Bank of England’s Funding forLending Scheme (FLS), which provides cheap fundsfor lending to small firms and households.

New entrants still face a big challenge in taking onexisting lenders, which have branches across thecountry and whose payment systems the start-upsstill have to use.

The Bank of England’s director of financialstability, Andrew Haldane, has mooted a commonpayment systems platform that all banks could use tolevel the playing field for entrants.

The changes are among the FSA’s last policyannouncements before the regulator is scrapped onMarch 31.

Smarter regulatory reform could save banks 24% of costs

New research from PwC has found that if banks adopted a smarterapproach to their regulatory reform programmes, they could save 24% of thecosts of their implementation programmes.

Banks face a number of challenges as the unprecedented wave ofregulatory demands is continuing to gather force. Looking ahead, conditionsare expected to remain challenging over a long period. Consideration of thecontinuous stream of regulatory announcements, consultation papers andreviews highlights the fact that this is set to get even more complex over thenext few years. More agile, proactive and coordinated planning andexecution will allow banks to:

- Improve on poor delivery quality. The vast majority of organisations notemploying portfolio management reported that less than 10% of projects metthe key performance indicators. This phenomenon was even starker for morecomplex portfolios.

- Reduce financial costs associated with programme overrun. The averageproject overrun is 24% of budget and schedule, although this numberincreases by a factor of ten in many of the larger, more complex projectsfacing ‘black swan’ risk events.

“Banks have always faced regulatory-driven change. What sets thecurrent environment apart is the sheer volume of significant new regulationbeing introduced,” said Stelios Constantinou, Partner in charge of thebanking industry at PwC Cyprus.

“Factors complicating the volume of work to be done include tighttimelines, the degree of uncertainty around interpretation and inconsistencybetween regulators – all of which aggravate the delivery risk. Plus, theregulations require banks to fundamentally address the way they do businessand so command a significant part of their annual change budgets,”Constantinou added.

Piraeus buys Cyprus bank units for €524 mlnl Signs deal to buy all 3 Cypriot banks which will make it Greece’s second-largest by assets

Piraeus Bank has agreed to buy the operations of strickenCypriot banks in Greece for 524 mln euros in a deal hastilycobbled together to protect the Greek banking sector fromthe island’s debt crisis.

The deal, funded by Greece’s bank bailout fund HFSF,means 312 local branches of the three Cypriot banks willreopen on Wednesday after being shut since March 19 asCyprus scrambled to strike a bailout deal to prevent an eco-nomic meltdown.

The transfer of the branches, which represent about atenth of Greece’s banking market, was part of the interna-tional bailout to help shield Greek lenders from the island’scrisis and allow Cyprus to shrink its bloated banking sector.

Piraeus, with a market cap of 265 mln euros, beat out rivalAlpha Bank to acquire the Greek operations of Bank ofCyprus, Cyprus Popular Bank and Hellenic Bank.

“Customer deposits with the Greek branches of Bank ofCyprus, Cyprus Popular Bank (CPB) and Hellenic Bank arenot subject to any bank levy or haircut that has been agreedin Cyprus,” Piraeus said.

The deal will make Piraeus Greece’s second-largest bankwith combined assets of 95 bln euros, overtaking currentnumber two Alpha Bank, and a network of 1,660 branchesand 24,000 employees. It will have deposits of 50 bln eurosand net loans of 74 bln, meaning a loans-to-deposits ratio of120%.

A bank source with direct knowledge of the deal said theenlarged Piraeus would have too many branches and couldachieve synergies by closing as many as 500 over the nextthree years.

“The message is, yes, there are going to be branch clo-sures, that will clearly affect headcount, but headcount willbe rationalized in a socially responsible manner,” the sourcesaid.

Piraeus, which was advised by Barclays, Deutsche Bankand Lazard on the deal, said its ratio of non-performing loanswill rise to 26% from 21% after the takeover.

Greek banks including Piraeus will themselves be recapi-talised to shore up their solvency ratios. Most of the cashinjection will be provided by a state bank bailout fund - the

Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF).Piraeus’s capital needs have been estimated by Greece’s

central bank at 7.3 bln euros. The 524 mln euros for theCypriot acquisitions will be supplied by the HFSF inexchange for shares, an official at the fund told Reuters.

The deal will increase the group’s market share in depositsto 27% from 19% and its share of loans to 28 from 18%.

Piraeus has already taken over the healthy part of statelender ATEbank and French lender Societe Generale’s Genikias part of a wave of consolidation in the sector to cope withthe debt crisis and a deep recession.

The group is also in talks to acquire the Greek unit ofPortugal’s biggest bank Millennium BCP.

“The transaction represents another important steptowards the restructuring of the Greek banking system inwhich Piraeus has participated from the very beginning as acore pillar,” the bank said.

Piraeus shares, which had rallied 20% on Friday when itwas picked as a buyer by Greece’s bank bailout fund, weredown 1.7% on Tuesday.


financialmirror.com | GREECE | 23

OPAP sale at risk of legal challengeThe flagship sale of the Greek government’s stake in

betting monopoly OPAP is being challenged by two of thepotential buyers, who say the sale is not being run fairly.

Two of the eight initial suitors for the 33% stake haveindependently written to OPAP and the Greek privatisationagency HRADF complaining the process is not being run ina transparent and objective way.

Both suitors - a bid vehicle called Emma Delta backed byGreek shipping tycoon George Melisanidis and Czechinvestor Jiri Smejc, and a consortium led by gamingequipment company Gauselmann and gaming softwaregroup Playtech - threaten to take legal action if necessary.

Any setback to the sale could have broader economicimplications for Greece, given that the stake in OPAP, wortharound 660 mln euros at current share prices, is being soldby Athens under privatisation plans which were a key part ofthe country’s EU/IMF bailout.

The government expects to raise 11 bln euros fromprivatisations by 2016.

“Our company certainly reserves any and all of its rightsto use any legal possible means, including the possibility ofsubmission of indictments and notices for the investigationof possible punitive acts,” said the letter from Emma Delta.

Among the complaints in the letters, dated earlier thismonth and seen by Reuters, is a decision by OPAP to renewan IT services contract with local gaming software firmIntralot, one of the other potential bidders.

BOUND FOR THE FUTUREIntralot, one of the world’s biggest gaming software

providers, has been OPAP’s IT contractor since at least 2001,when OPAP was listed on the Athens bourse.

Its latest contract expires in July and OPAP considers itsrenewal, which it said would cost 109 mln euros for servicesand capital expenditure plus at least 46 mln euros formaintenance, is vital for its smooth operation.

The Gauselmann letter said the contract, for the provisionand maintenance of a new central hardware and softwaresystem, would involve OPAP paying more than it had stated,

and the buyer of the government’s stake should have a say init.

Both letters also said potential buyers had not beenprovided with details of the contract, despite the successfulbidder being bound to it for as long as five years.

In its letter, Emma Delta also calls on the privatisationagency to investigate the legality of the participation ofcompanies linked to Intralot in the OPAP privatisationprocess.

“OPAP, which is the target company, ‘gives a bonus’ tothe technical provider by a new agreement and reinforces thefinancial and cash liquidity of the group and the relatedgroup companies, giving in such a way an advantage in thecompetition process,” the letter said.

OPAP holds monopolies in Greek sports betting andlotteries until 2020 and 2030 respectively. It also holds anexclusive 10-year licence for video lottery terminals and a 12-year licence to offer scratch cards.

Final bids for OPAP are due in the second half of April, butcontenders must state the final composition of their

consortiums by March 28.Private equity firms TPG Capital and BC Partners, activist

investor fund Third Point, Triple Five World GroupProperties and a unit of Chinese conglomerate Fosun, alsoresponded to a November 9 deadline for expressions ofinterest, along with Intralot, Gauselmann-Playtech andEmma Delta.

Aegean offers concessions for Olympic deal, EU decision by April 23Aegean Airlines has offered concessions to try to win

approval for its second bid for rival Olympic Air, EU antitrustregulators said, extending their review of the takeover deal toApril 23.

Aegean has said the 72-mln-euro bid is key to its survivalin Greece’s shrinking air transport market, as the bailed-outcountry suffers a protracted recession.

The European Commission announced the new deadlinefor a decision on its website, but did not give details of theconcessions offered, in line with its standard policy.

Aegean agreed to buy Olympic from Marfin InvestmentGroup (MIG) in October.

Some antitrust experts said its chances of winning clear-ance may have improved due to its shrinking market shareand the recent addition of Cyprus Airways routes into Greece.

But that argument might be undermined by an investiga-tion opened by competition regulators earlier this monthinto state aid granted to the Cypriot airline.

The Commission blocked Aegean’s 170-mln-euro first bidtwo years ago to buy debt-ridden Olympic, because of thedominance the group would have had on the domestic mar-ket.

And the Commission, which acts as competition regulatorin the 27-country European Union, last month rejected a

third attempt by Ryanair to buy Aer Lingus, again citing themerged company’s market dominance.

The only time the Commission has cleared a deal afterblocking it the first time was when packaging firm TetraLaval and rival Sidel won approval in 2003 after a court chal-lenge.

Olympic, founded in 1957 by the late shipping magnateAristotle Onassis, went into a steady decline after being oper-ated for decades by the Greek government, saddling the statebudget with losses.

The tourism industry accounts for about one in five jobsin Greece, making it a key part of economic recovery.

OPAP postpones EGM to April 6Betting monopoly OPAP, one of Europe’s biggest

gambling firms, has postponed a shareholder meeting todiscuss the renewal of a key IT services contract to giveGreece’s privatisation agency HRADF more time to study theagenda.

The agency is selling all but 1% of the government’s 34%stake in OPAP, which wanted shareholder approval onTuesday to renew a deal with local gaming software providerIntralot.

Analysts said deferring the meeting, rescheduled for April6, would not delay the sale which is expected to go ahead inthe next few weeks as part of Greece’s bailout programme.

HRADF said in a statement its newly appointed board ofdirectors needed more time to study the meeting’s agenda.

Intralot, one of the world’s biggest gaming softwareproviders, has been OPAP’s IT contractor since at least 2001,when OPAP was listed on the Athens bourse.

Their latest contract expires in July and OPAP considersits renewal, worth 109 million euros, vital for its smoothoperation.

OPAP has annual sales of about 4 bln euros and a 33%stake would be worth nearly 715 mln, based on the company’scurrent market capitalisation on the Athens Stock Exchange.

The company, in which big U.S. hedge and investmentfunds including Baupost Group own a stake, holds a nationalmonopoly on sports gambling until 2020 and on lotteriesuntil 2030. It also has the exclusive licence to launch videolotto terminals in the country.

GLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL ECONOMYAs euro zone suffers, emerging markets thrivel BRICS quintet to bask in South Africa summit spotlight; Emerging markets’

growth good for West, but not cost-free

No matter how Cyprus’s financial drama ends, its troublesshow yet again that rich countries enfeebled by the great finan-cial crisis remain a weak link in the world economy.

By comparison, emerging markets are not only lookingstronger but are also contributing more consistently to globalgrowth.

At worst, if Cyprus has to abandon the euro, fragmentationof the single-currency bloc would chill investment and couldreduce trend growth in the euro zone’s four major economiesby a full percentage point on average in the period 2015-2020,according to economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Under that scenario, trend growth in Germany could fall tozero, they said.

Even if a solution is found that keeps the tiny Mediterraneanisland afloat, the inept handling of the crisis has revived politi-cal risk. Confidence in the euro zone economy, already relaps-ing after a fairly bright start to the year, can only suffer.

Several banks lowered their forecasts for the bloc on theheels of grim purchasing managers’ surveys, and a clutch ofsentiment indicators and money supply figures this week arelikely to further underscore the economy’s precarious posi-tion.

While policy makers in the euro zone struggle to keep thesingle currency together, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India,China and South Africa (BRICS) will meet this week inDurban, South Africa, to strengthen the foundations ofemerging markets’ growth.

The summit is expected to give the go-ahead for a jointforeign exchange reserves pool as well as an infrastructurebank.

The initiative is being hatched partly out of frustrationwith international financial institutions that they judge toprimarily reflect the interests of industrialised countries.

Jim O’Neill, the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset

Management, noted that, for all the havoc that Cyprus canpotentially cause, its annual output of $22 bln is no morethan China produces in a week.

“For the Cyprus fiasco week to be followed by a BRICSsummit week sums up the changing fortunes of global eco-nomic development,” O’Neill, who coined the BRICSacronym in 2001, said.

SOURCE OF STRENGTHPortugal, mired in recession due to austerity measures

demanded by international lenders, provides a vivid illustrationof the growing importance of emerging markets.

The number of Brazilians visiting Portugal has been growingby double digits for more than five years, according to FranciscoCalheiros, president of the Portuguese Tourism Confederation.

Sales to China from Volkswagen’s factory outside Lisbon, thecountry’s second-largest exporter, jumped 54% in 2012 eventhough the plant’s total output fell 15%.

Angola is now Portugal’s fourth-largest market, accountingfor 6.6% of its exports - more than the United States.

“This is how we’ve been able to grow our exports, which isthe only component in our GDP which is going up,” said JoaoLeite, an economist with Banco Carregosa in Lisbon.

Global figures illustrate the relative vigour of developing

countries. Trade in goods between advanced economies is downby 6% over the past four years whereas trade among emergingmarkets is up by 38%, according to Ebrahim Rahbari andDeimante Kupciuniene, economists at Citi.

“Trade transformation towards emerging markets has a longway to go,” they said in a report.

EYE ON EMERGING MARKETSA stronger net export performance is one reason why the

United States grew modestly in the fourth quarter 2012 after apreliminary report that the economy shrank.

Thursday’s final revision for GDP for the October-Decemberperiod is likely to show a 0.5% rate of growth, according to econ-omists polled by Reuters.

Among the week’s other data highlights, U.S. durable goodsorders and personal income are both expected to have rebound-ed in February from a swoon in January induced in part by anincrease in payroll taxes.

The debate in the United States on whether free trade is toblame for the stagnation of middle-class incomes and risinginequality is likely to heat up as talks over transatlantic andtranspacific market-opening deals gather momentum.

In a study for the Peterson Institute for InternationalEconomics in Washington, Lawrence Edwards and RobertLawrence acknowledge that some of the public’s fears are wellfounded because free trade can cause short-term job losses thatput communities under strain.

But they conclude that rapid growth in emerging markets ispart of the solution to America’s problems, not their source,because a rising tide lifts all boats.

“Developing country growth has therefore contributedtoward faster U.S. export growth, an increase in the variety ofimports available to Americans, and higher terms of trade asso-ciated with any given trade balance,” they wrote.


24 | BACK PAGE | financialmirror.com

By Alan WheatleyGlobal Economics Correspondent,

Reuters

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