financial statements forecasting. 3 primary financial statements income statement balance sheet...
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Financial Statements Forecasting
3 Primary Financial Statements
Income statementBalance sheetConsolidated statement of cash flowsOther decision-making measures:
Financial ratios Common size statementsFree cash flow projections & valuation
Financial Analysis
Assess the strengths and weaknesses of the firm’s current conditionRatio analysisBreak-even analysisOperating and financial leverage analysis
Generate pro forma financial statements to identify strategies to improve the condition and assess future risks
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Growth and the Need for Financing
Growth is frequently associated with cash Faster growth more profits more cash This is incorrect! Growth and profits do not always
generate sufficient cash flow to cover the assets needed for growth!
Growth needs to be managed and planned Firms often fail when the needs of expansion
overwhelm the available resources for expansion
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Flow of a Sales-Driven Model
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Sustainable Growth in the Rapid Growth Phase
“It takes money to make money" phase Increased sales require more assets of all
types Internal sources may not generate enough
cash Retained earnings Increase in spontaneous liabilities
May need to raise capital externally Debt Equity
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Calculating the Discretionary Financing Needed
Compile changes in assets Left side of balance sheet Cash Current Assets
Inventories & Account Receivables Long-term assets
Net Fixed Assets Goodwill
Subtract forecasted Total Liabilities and Equity from Total Assets to determine Discretionary Funds Needed (DFN)
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Achieving Equilibrium
When Discretionary Funds Needed is PositiveRaise external financing
Increase debt Issue more stock
Reduce cash &/or marketable security stock balances
Decrease dividends
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Achieving Equilibrium
When Discretionary Funds Needed is NegativeDecrease external capital:
Repurchase sharesPay off debt
Hold excess cash &/or marketable security balances
Increase dividends
The “Plug”
The balance-sheet items which will “plug” or balance the balance sheet model so that Total Assets equals Total Liabilities & Equity
Models the assumption of how the firm finances itself: Cash & marketable securities Debt Equity Dividends
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Testing the model for perverse effects
Questions: When assumptions change what happens to the plug values? Does it make sense?
Example: Problems associated with using dividends as a plug May not have adequate cash balances to pay the dividends that
are calculated Negative dividends can be calculated when the firm experiences
a loss Dividends may not distribute excess cash that the firm wishes to
reduce Solution involves using =max(Calculated Dividend,0)
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Equilibrium checks
Balance SheetDiscretionary Funds Needed must equal 0
Statement of Cash FlowsNet increase in cash from Consolidated
Statement of Cash Flows less changes in cash & marketable
securities in Balance Sheet>> must equal 0