findings of a duke policy research initiative on middle ...nov 02, 2018 · 4 questions • on...
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Findings of a Duke Policy Research Initiative on Middle Income Africa
Indermit Gill & Kenan KarakülahDirector, DCID World Bank
Duke Conference on International DevelopmentNovember 16 2018
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2000 2011 2013
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4 Questions
• On Growth: Has Africa Missed the Bus?
• On Debt: Is Africa Headed Into Another Debt Crisis?
• On China: Is China Helping or Hurting Africa?• Gill and Karakülah (2018a, 2018b, and 2018c)
• On India: Is India Helping Africa? • Dixit, Gill, and Kumar (2018)
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4 Answers
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10 Takeaways from the Papers
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1) No growth miracle in Sub-Saharan Africa
Per c
apita
GDP
gro
wth
Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018a)
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Per c
apita
GDP
gro
wth
Per c
apita
GDP
gro
wth
Africa vs East Asia Africa vs South Asia
Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018a) Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018a)
Africa vs East Asia
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2) Africa will not do well unless its three largest economies do well
Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018a)
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3) Nigeria, South Africa and Angola have not been doing well
Source: World Bank (2018): Global Economic Prospects
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4) Africa’s largest countries have some structural attributes of low income economies
Sources: Gill and Karakülah (2018a)
Low income average
Middle income average
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Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018a) Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018a)
Low income average
Middle income average
Low income average
Middle income average
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5) Needed: Big transformations in education, electricity, and taxes
Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018a)
Number of Youth in Africa (million)
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About 600 million people live without access to electricity
Few countries in Africa mobilize enough tax revenues to develop quickly
Source: International Energy Agency (2017), EnergyAccess Outlook 2017
Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018a)
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6) Africa’s debt relief, and rebound
Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018b)
2000 2010
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The result of relief?
Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018b)
2010 2017
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7) Debt dynamics matter more than debt levels
Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018b)
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Scenario 1: Debt levels
Sources: Gill and Karakülah (2018b)
Scenario 2: Debt levels and change in debt
Scenario 3: Debt levels, change in debt and ability to pay
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8) China is now Africa’s most active development partner
Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018c)
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9) Chinese finance is not yet a big burden for most of Africa’s governmentsEx
tern
al p
ublic
deb
t (%
of G
DP)
Source: Gill and Karakülah (2018c)
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10) India has become Africa’s second largest trading partner
Source: Gill, Dixit and Kumar (2018)
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Not just health services: Pharmaceutical and medicine exports by India to Africa
Source: Gill, Dixit and Kumar (2018)
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All four DCID papers will be posted on the Duke conference website
“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see.”
Winston Churchill