fire danger rating in the european forest fire information ... · effis - the european forest fire...

Edmonton, Alberta, Canada - July 14 – 16, 2008 1

Fire Danger Rating in the European Forest Fire Danger Rating in the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS)Fire Information System (EFFIS)

of the European Commissionof the European Commission

Andrea Camia

[email protected]


OutlineOutline

• What is JRC• What is EFFIS• Fire Danger Rating in Europe and in EFFIS• Fire conditions and fire seasons in EU• The adoption of FWI and on going work• Weather data and forecasts• Operational fire danger rating in the EFFIS system • New products and further improvements


The mission of the JRC is to provide customer-driven scientific and technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring of EU policies.

As a service of the European Commission, the JRC functions as a reference centre of science and technology for the Union.

Close to the policy-making process, it serves the common interest of the Member States, while being independent of special interests, whether private or national.

JRCJRC’’s Missions Mission


EFFIS EFFIS -- The European Forest Fire Information SystemThe European Forest Fire Information System

• EC initiative started in 1998– Legal framework– Support by Member States

• A network of EC services (DG ENV, DG JRC) and Member States fire agencies

• Scientific and technical infrastructure providing EU level information to support forest fire protection

• A web based platform with different modules (effis.jrc.it)


Fire danger information exchange during 1998Fire danger information exchange during 1998


• In EU there is a relative young tradition in FDR and many different approaches

• The fire danger rating module of EFFIS has been established as unified platform for implementing at the EU scale selected national indices

• The main motivation was having a common system to support preparedness and cooperation among EU countries

• Today the Canadian FWI has been adopted (research and development still on going)

Fire danger rating in Europe and EFFISFire danger rating in Europe and EFFIS


FIRE FREQUENCYAverage number of fires per year

0

1 - 5

6 - 10

11 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 500

501 - 1,000

1,001 - 4,860

NO FIRE DATA

FIRE DENSITY# Fires / Year / 10 sqkm of Wild land

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03 - 0.05

0.06 - 0.08

0.09 - 0.12

0.13 - 0.18

0.19 - 0.26

0.27 - 0.60

0.61 - 24.98

NO FIRE DATA

About 65,000 wildfires per year in EU

Fire conditions and fire seasons in EUFire conditions and fire seasons in EU


BURNED AREAAverage bured area per y ear (Ha)

0

1 - 10

11 - 50

51 - 100

101 - 250

251 - 500

501 - 1,000

1,001 - 2,500

2,501 - 5,000

5,001 - 15 ,479

NO F IRE DATA

WILDLAND FRACTION BURNEDTotal burned area / Year / W ild land area

0%

0.01% - 0.00%

0.01%

0.02% - 0.01%

0.02% - 0.03%

0.04% - 0.09%

0.10% - 0.19%

0.20% - 0.44%

0.45% - 1.06%

1.07% - 6.39%

NO F IRE DATA

About 500,000 hectares burned per year in EU



FIRE F REQUENCY

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NO V

DEC



BURNED AREA

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NO V

DEC



Regionalization of EuropeForest Ecosystem s Regions

Polar

Boreal

Moderate Temperate

Warm Temperate

Arid M oderate

Mediterranean

Orobiom

Transition B oreal / Polar

Transition B oreal / Moderate Temperate

Transition Arid Moderate / Moderate Temperate

Transition Moderate Temperate / Arid Moderate

Transition Moderate Temperate / Boreal

Transition Moderate Temperate / Mediter ranean

Transition Moderate Temperate / Warm Temperate

Transition Warm Temperate / Boreal

Transition Warm Temperate / Mediterranean

Transition Warm Temperate / Moderate Temperate

Transition Mediterranean / Moderate Temperate

Transition Mediterranean / Warm Tem perate



EUMed Countries (PT, ES, FR, IT, GR) Fire frequency & Seasonal Severity Rating 1980 - 2005

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Num

berr

of f

ires

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

SS

R

Number of fires SSR

Number of fires in EUMed per fire size classes (ha)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

>=500>=100 ; <500>=50 ; <100>=10 ; <50>=5 ; <10>=1 ; <5<1



EUMed Countries (PT, ES, FR, IT, GR) Burned area & Seasonal Severity Rating 1980 - 2005

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Bur

ned

area

(ha)

012345678910

SSR

Burned area SSR

Number of largeforest fires per year in EUMed

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Num

ber o

f fire

s

>=50 ; <100>=100 ; <500>=500

Fire s ize (ha)



Burned area vs Monthly Severity Rating in EUMed(June to October 1985-2005)

y = 2199.1e0.4099x

R2 = 0.7551

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

MSR

Mon

thly

bur

ned

area

(ha)


Maximum FW I difference in 2003(Adapted FWI - C anad ian FW I)

-7 .1 - -4 .7

-4 .6 - -3 .5

-3 .4 - -2 .5

-2 .4 - -1 .6

-1 .5 - -0 .9

-0 .8 - -0 .3

-0 .2 - 0 .0

Do we adapt DMC and DC for changing latitude?Do we adapt DMC and DC for changing latitude?


Months of 2003 w ith m axim um FWI d ifference

AP R

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SE P

OCT


FWI calibration (on going)FWI calibration (on going)

Number of large fires (>500 ha) and FWI values

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

<5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-40 40-50 >50FWI ranges

NUm

ber o

f lar

ge fi

res

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

<10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 >50

>20,00010,000-20,0005,000-10,0001,000-5,000500-1,000

Burned area (ha)

FWIclass

SizeClass

Burned area in large fires (>500 ha) by FWI ranges

Looking for the extreme fire danger thresholds


FWI quantile36.7 - 60.0

60.1 - 70.0

70.1 - 80.0

80.1 - 90.0

90.1 - 92.0

92.1 - 95.0

95.1 - 97.0

97.1 - 98.0

98.1 - 99.0

99.1 - 100.0

FWI = 30

FWI = 40 FWI = 50

Percentiles of long term (1958-2006) of

FWI series

FWI calibration (on going)FWI calibration (on going)


Forest fires

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800BUI

ISI

Grassland fires

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800BUI

ISI

Shrubland fires

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800BUI

ISI

ISI and BUI values in large fires (> 500 ha) ISI and BUI values in large fires (> 500 ha)


Weather Stations network (MARS)Weather Stations network (MARS)


Fire Danger ForecastFire Danger Forecast

From MeteoFranceSpatial resolution 0.5˚ (~ 50 km)Forecast up to 3 days

From DeutscherWetterdienstMedium resolution map

Spatial resolution 0.36˚ (~ 35 km)Forecast up to 7 days

High resolution mapSpatial resolution 0.0625˚ (~ 7 km)Forecast up to 3 days

ECMWF ensemble forecast under consideration


Two new products introduced in 2008:

- FWI daily anomalies- FWI absolute ranking

Both based on long term (50 years) computation of daily FWI values (ERA40 dataset)

New productsNew products


Every day the FWI value in a given pixel is also assessed as the distance from the long term average FWI value for that pixel & time of the year

The standardized distance (z score) is named anomaly

0

5

10

15

20

25

0101 0131 0301 0331 0430 0530 0629 0729 0828 0927 1027 1126 1226Day

DSR

AV_DSR -0.675TDEV_DSR +0.675TDEV_DSR DSR2003

AV_DSR W11 -0.675TDEV_DSR +0.675TDEV_DSR

FWI anomaliesFWI anomalies


FWI absolute rankingFWI absolute ranking


Climate change impact on fire dangerClimate change impact on fire danger

• Average and extreme fire weather trend analysis with FWI computed for last 50 years in EU (from ECMWF ERA40 dataset)

• Outlook of future trends under given climate change scenarios

fire danger rating in the european forest fire information ... · effis - the european forest fire...

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