first look presentation to the regional technical forum residential led bulbs

B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

First Look Presentation to the Regional Technical Forum

Residential LED bulbs

Elizabeth Daykin, BPA PlanningSarah F. Moore, BPA Residential Sector LeadJohn Wilson, BPA Lighting Program Manager

Mark Kendall, Kendall Energy

January 23, 2012


LED lamps – they’re here!

2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

# of

Qua

lified

Mod

els

ENERGYSTAR LED Lamps - As of Oct 2012

R (n = 20)

Candle (n = 40)

Globe (n = 51)

A (n = 55)

BR (n = 57)

PAR20 (n = 90)

Non - Standard (n = 111)

MR (n = 130)

PAR30 (n = 313)

PAR38 (n = 356)

Source: EPA/Energy Star


LEDs - Overview

RTF History: CFLs, Specialty CFLs, and LED Downlights Measure Definition: LED replacement lamps Technical Issues and Programmatic Approaches Unit Energy Savings Estimate

Comparison of primary data sources• Delta Watts (Baseline – Efficient)• Hours of Use • HVAC Interaction, Removal, Storage, and Takeback Costs Effective useful life

Next Steps

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4

Measure History and Decision


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LED Lamps Measure Definition

Energy Star Eligibility Criteria - Version 1.4−Omni-directional (replaces A, BT, P, PS, S, T)−Directional (replaces BR, ER, K, MR, PAR, R)−Decorative (replaces B, BA, C, CA, DC, F, G)

Excludes non-standard lamps Delivery Channels

Retail Direct mail (requested / not requested) Direct install (by location and all locations)


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Lamp Types/Categories

Category Lamp type Description (includes)

Omni-directional A-lamps A-lamp, 3-way, twister

Omni-directional Globe Globe (5 inch or >)

Directional Reflector R, PAR, BR, MR, flood

Decorative Decorative Candlelabra, globes (< 5”)

n/a Linear fluor. T-4, T-5, T-8, T-12


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Residential LED SubcommitteePurpose: Divide and conquer research tasks, contribute to

collection of data for UES, collaborate on program design

Subcommittee representation:• Program, planning and engineering staff representing:

Bonneville Power, Puget Sound Energy, Seattle City Light, Snohomish PUD, Tacoma Power, Energy Trust of Oregon, Fluid Market Strategies, Applied Proactive Technologies and PECI.

Biases or disclosed conflicts of interest - none

Residential LED Subcommittee meetings: • 4 meetings: Oct 12, 2012; Oct 30, 2012; Nov 6, 2012; Jan 7, 2013• Met with manufacturers and retailers at October 2012 Energy Star

Partner meeting to vet product availability


Issues Discussed by Subcommittee

Technical issues• Flicker, dimmability compatibility and current lack of testing criteria• Product specification – elements to assist in predicting quality

− Efficacy (lm/watt), Color Rendering Index (CRI), Power Factor (PF)

Program issues• Program design and implementation, regional coordination• Product availability and price• California residential LED specification, ENERGY STAR revisions

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More detail: Challenges with Flicker Possible inverse relationship between flicker index

and luminous flux. • Some products with a wide range of luminous flux, such as

MR16s, may be more susceptible to flicker.

Minimum power requirements for dimmer switch operation. • Will programs need to address switch compatibility?

Are we making too much of this? • NW RBSA indicates only 5 percent of sockets are controlled

by dimmers.

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Addressing these issues Flicker: Tracking standards under development ENERGY STAR - Specification under development (2014) NEMA LSD 49-2010, ”Solid state lighting for incandescent replacement—

best practices for dimming” http://www.nema.org/stds/lsd49.cfm IEEE PAR1789 http://grouper.ieee.org/groups/1789/

Dimmability compatibility: program design options Product specifications – which elements predict quality (efficacy, CRI

PF): Subcommittee participating with West Coast Lighting Group. Will be comparing notes with CA utilities’ approach to quality.

BPA regional promotion will test in-store materials to assist consumer. BPA regional lighting promotion will request product return information

from participating retailer (number and reason).

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Subcommittee recommendations for 2013 Present Energy Star LED bulbs to Regional Technical Forum

• Expect all measures to pass TRC based on preliminary analysis

Both Tier 1 (ETSTAR) and Tier 2 have value to programs• General interest in higher efficacy (65 lm/W)• Power Factor (PF) had value as possible ‘predictor’ of quality

Pilot Tier 2 with BPA’s Simple Steps regional lighting promotion• Provides a defendable way to limit qualified products• Mitigates risk to budget management• Provides opportunity to test return rate of this product class

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Ongoing data tracking

Regular data collection to track (retail)• Products available at retail that meet spec• Sales volumes• Changes in stocking practices• Current pricing• Rate/reason for product returns


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Proposed Sunset Criteria

Earlier of:•Effective Date of Energy Star Integral LED Lamp Update−Currently on draft 3−Expected to go into effect early 2014

•EISA Halogen baseline update, or•Rapid changes to technology, costs, standards


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Unit Energy Savings

Comparison of the primary data sources Hours of Use Baseline Watts Delivery Channels Storage, Takeback, and Removal Rates Incremental Costs Effective Useful Life


Primary Data Sources - RBSA

Residential Building Stock Assessment: Single-Family Characteristics and Energy Use• Ecotope report published October 31, 2012• Data collection conducted in 2011• Specific to the Northwest (data collected from more

than 1,400 single-family homes)• Report contains valuable high-level lighting information• Database not yet published

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Primary Data Sources – KEMA Study

Final Evaluation Report: Upstream Lighting Program• KEMA, Inc. report published February 8, 2010• Impact evaluation of the 2006-2008 Upstream Lighting

Program implemented by PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E• Detailed tables addressing lamp type & lamp shape

distribution and wattages• Completed and fully reported• Data source for the Standard CFL and Specialty CFL

analyses• Not specific to the Northwest


UES Calculation

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Delta Watts (Baseline – Efficient)Hours of Use HVAC InteractionRemoval, Storage, and Takeback


Baseline Watts: KEMA 2010

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Lamp Shape/Type Incandescent Halogen CFLTotal or Weighted

AverageAverage Watts

per Lamp60.1 73.1 13.9 64.4

% 67% 1% 32% 100%

Average Watts per Lamp

70 73.1 17.3 48.7

% 49% 41% 10% 100%

Average Watts per Lamp

43.1 7.7 41.2

% 95% 5% 100%

Lamp Technology

Omnidirectional (A-Lamp, Globe)

Directional (Reflector)

Decorative (Candelabra)


Baseline Challenges

Options:• KEMA data (lamp shape by lamp type)• RBSA detailed data (lamp shape by lamp type)• RBSA high-level summary (lamp type)

−Not specific to lamp type−Avoids challenges with lamp shape classification

For efficient watts, we propose using average watts from Energy Star Qualified Products list

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Direct Install - Locations

Bathroom Bedroom Closet Dining Room Exterior Family Room Garage Hall

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Kitchen Laundry Room Living Room Master Bedroom Office Other Any Interior Any Exterior


RBSA Location Baseline

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2012 RBSA Distribution of Lamps by Type and RoomTable 77, Page 70

Lamp Type

Percent of LampsCompact

Fluorescent Halogen Incandescent Linear Fluorescent Other n

Bathroom 22.00% 4.10% 71.50% 2.10% 0.30% 12,977Bedroom 29.40% 3.80% 63.60% 2.90% 0.20% 9,847

Closet 24.60% 2.60% 58.20% 14.30% 0.30% 1,747Dining Room 18.00% 5.20% 74.60% 1.90% 0.30% 4,314

Exterior 24.30% 14.30% 55.20% 4.60% 1.60% 8,174Family Room 28.40% 7.70% 56.00% 7.00% 0.80% 4,724

Garage 13.30% 0.70% 33.40% 52.20% 0.30% 5,474Hall 28.60% 4.70% 64.00% 1.90% 0.70% 6,270

Kitchen 26.90% 12.00% 41.40% 18.40% 1.20% 9,665Laundry Room 27.90% 5.30% 40.20% 26.20% 0.50% 2,284

Living Room 31.00% 7.50% 59.20% 1.50% 0.80% 7,662Master Bedroom 28.80% 5.10% 63.90% 1.40% 0.80% 4,015

Office 28.10% 8.00% 49.00% 13.60% 1.30% 2,879Other 18.50% 3.90% 44.20% 32.90% 0.40% 5,477

All Room Types 25.00% 6.50% 57.00% 10.80% 0.70% 85,509


KEMA 2010 Location Baseline

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KEMA, 2010 Report to CPUC Vol 2, Table 21


Location - Comparison

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KEMA RBSA KEMA RBSA KEMA RBSA

Bathroom 61% 72% 24% 22% 4% 4%

Bedroom 59% 64% 27% 29% 6% 4%

Kitchen 33% 41% 19% 27% 11% 12%

Living Room 58% 59% 27% 31% 9% 8%

Hall/Entrance 65% 64% 23% 29% 5% 5%

Dining Room 75% 75% 15% 18% 6% 5%

Garage 14% 33% 9% 13% 1% 1%

Office 49% 49% 27% 28% 11% 8%

Other Living Room 49% 44% 19% 19% 4% 4%

Incandescent CFL Halogen


Hours of Use (HOU)

RBSA metering not yet completed/reported Will use KEMA study

• Consistent with −SBW recommendation−Standard CFLs−Specialty CFLs

−Except for Direct Install measures, we will use the average 1.9 HOU from the KEMA Study

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HVAC Interaction

Propose using the RTF Standard CFL Analysis 15.4% HVAC Interaction Factor

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Storage, Takeback, & Removal Rates

Storage Rate for Delivery Channels• Direct Mail non-request

−apply 23.7% storage rate from RBSA 2012

• Direct Mail by-request, Direct Install, and Retail−Due to cost, assume no storage rate

Takeback• Program data collection to determine takeback rates for

future analysis

Removal Rate • 4% for all delivery channels except retail

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Storage, Takeback, & Removal Rates

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Delivery Channel Removal Takeback Storage

Retail 0% 0% 0%

Direct Install 4% 0% 0%

Direct Mail - by request 4% 0% 0%

Direct Mail - non request 4% 0% 23.7%


Review of LED price trends

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

11/2010 2/2011 6/2011 9/2011 12/2011 4/2012 7/2012 10/2012

PAR38

PAR30

PAR20

Omnidirectional

Non-standard

MR16

Globe

Candle

LED Price Trends2011 – 2012

$ per L

* Note: Upward price swings largely due to additional products added to

Source: http://www.energystar.gov/ia/partners/manuf_res/Bulb_Price_Tracking.xls?2b27-d407

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LED Lamp CostLED Lamp Cost

• 2012 NW Costs• Fluid, PSE, Phillips provided data• Chained to 2006 dollars

Replacement Cost • 2013 NW Retail• Incandescent EISA Compliant• CFL 2011- 2012 NEEA Retail Survey

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Estimated Costs

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Integral LED Lamp Cost

Incandescent Halogen CFL

Omnidirectional $30.35 $2.51 $2.95 $5.18

Directional $37.37 $4.86 $7.15 $7.34

Decorative $15.81 $1.96 $3.60 $8.68

All $32.74 $3.40 $4.71 $6.51


Estimated Useful Life (EUL)

Rated life range of 15,000 – 50,000 hours Industry standard lamp failure defined as either inoperable

or 30% lumen depreciation from initial lumens for the mean lamp.

Energy Star requires• 6,000 hours of lumen maintenance testing (in conformance with IES LM-79-

08)• 3-year manufacturer warranty

Proposal: cap lifetime at 12 years for LED's • DEER emerging technologies assumption• Accounts for new (unproven) technology• Accounts for next generation technology adoption

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Next Steps

Questions / Research Tasks•EUL•Cost•Baseline Watts•Other

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Total Resulting Measures

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Measure Permutations by Delivery Channel Delivery Channels

Retail (by lamp shape): 4 measures Direct mail – Requested (by lamp shape): 4 measures Direct mail - Non-requested (by lamp shape): 4 measures Direct install (by lamp shape, location, & baseline): 256

measures Recommend rolling direct install by location measures into

single measure by baseline and lamp shape (4)

Total possible measures: 272 Total proposed measures: 16


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Research ReviewedBaseline for lamp type, technology, location

2011 Residential Building Stock Assessment: Single-Family Characteristics and Energy Use (September 2012) NEEA, by Ecotope, Inc. http://neea.org/docs/reports/residential-building-stock-assessment-single-family-characteristics-and-energy-use.pdf?sfvrsn=8

2010 Final Evaluation Report: Upstream Lighting Program, Volume 1 (February 8, 2010) CPUC, KEMA, Inc. http://www.energydataweb.com/cpucFiles/18/FinalUpstreamLightingEvaluationReport_2.pdf

2010 Final Evaluation Report: Upstream Lighting Program, Volume 2 (February 8, 2010) CPUC, KEMA, Inc http://www.calmac.org/publications/FinalUpstreamLightingEvaluationReport_Vol2_CALMAC.pdf


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Research reviewedEnergy Star specifications:

https://www.energystar.gov/products/specs/node/273http://www.energystar.gov/ia/partners/manuf_res/Bulb_Price_Tracking.xls?2b27-d407

Flicker/Dimmability Compatibility: Exploring Flicker in Solid State Lighting, Michael Poplawski & Naomi J. Miller, PNNL, 2011

http://www.e3tnw.org/Documents/2011%20IES%20flicker%20paper%20poplawski-miller-FINAL.pdf

Energy Star Stakeholder Discussion on Dimminghttp://www.energystar.gov/products/specs/sites/products/files/Dimming%20Work%20for

%20Lamps%201%200.pdf

Lifetime:Lifetime of white LEDs, US DOEhttp://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/lifetime_white_leds.pdf

LED Luminaire Lifetime, June 2011, NGLIA, US DOEhttp://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/led_luminaire-lifetime-

guide_june2011.pdf


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Research ReviewedCost, replacement CFL

2011-2012 Northwest Residential Lighting Tracking and Monitoring Study (September 2012) NEEA, DNV KEMA, Inc. http://neea.org/docs/reports/2011-2012-northwest-residential-lighting-tracking-and-monitoring-study.pdf?sfvrsn=5

Energy Trust of Oregon Lighting Retail Store Shelf Survey Report, (July 2012), Energy Trust of Oregon, KEMA, Inc

Fall 2011 California Lighting Retail Store Shelf Survey Report (May 2012) KEMA, Inc. http://www.calmac.org/publications/2011_CALIFORNIA_LIGHTING_RETAIL_STORE_SHELF_SURVEY_FINAL_REPORT_CALMAC.pdf


Impact of Possible Specifications

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Number Of Energy Star Qualified LED Lamps

Power Factor Any ≥50 L/ W ≥60 L/ W ≥65 L/ WAny 1,386 ≥ 0.7 1,265 1,008 454 225 ≥ 0.8 796 668 337 184

Eficacy