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8/2/2019 First Post eBook Iran eBook 20120217062316

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Iran:

Cornered, armed anddangerous


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Ahmadinejad: Cowboy of the Mid-East

Iran turns to barter for food as sanctions cripple imports

Iran ready for talks but asserts nuclear path will continue

Iran threatens to hit any country used to attack its soilAhmadinejad nukes Western threats, puts fuel rods in reactor

With nuclear bluster, Iran edges closer to a confrontation

Terror map: Bangkok, Georgia, New Delhi

Iranian bomber maimed in blasts in Thai capital

Thailand confirms Iranians planned to attack Israeli diplomatsDelhi car blast: No leads, so everyone under scanner

Israel: Waiting to strike

How Israel is hustling the US and rushing to strike Iran

Israel says Bangkok bomb is Iran terror attempt

Israel point fingers at Iran for attacks in India, Georgia

Israel may not strike back too hard: analysts

US: A tight rope walk

US, Europe look at fast but risky penalty on Iran

Dwindling time, rising tension make Iran top fear

Ready with all options on Iran: Obama

India: And the subcontinent

After Pakistan, is Iran exporting terror to India?

India: A friend of two enemies

Its in Indias interest to crack Israeli embassy car bomb case

If weve to choose between Israel and Iran, choose the former

Ahmadinejad to visit China next month: Report

Pain at the pump: Oil prices spike after Irans sabre-rattling
http://www.firstpost.com/


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Ahmadinejad:

Cowboy of the Mid-East


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Iran turns to barterfor food as sanctions

cripple imports

Difculty in making paying for urgent import needs

has contributed to sharp rises in the prices of basic

foodstuffs, causing hardship for Iranians.

Valerie Parent and Parisa Hafezi,with inputs from Reuters, Feb 9, 2012


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Paris/Tehran: Iran is turning to barter offering gold bullion in overseas vaultsor tankerloads of oil in return for food

as new nancial sanctions have hurt its abilityto import basic staples for its 74 million people,commodities traders said on Thursday.

Difculty paying for urgent import needs hascontributed to sharp rises in the prices of basicfoodstuffs, causing hardship for Iranians with

just weeks to go before an election seen as areferendum on President Mahmoud Ahmadine-

jads economic policies.

New sanctions imposed by the United Statesand European Union to punish Iran for its nu-clear programme do not bar rms from sellingIran food but they make it difcult to carry out

the international nancial transactions neededto pay for it.

Reuters surveys of commodities traders aroundthe globe show that since the start of the year,Iran has had trouble securing imports of basicstaples like rice, cooking oil, animal feed andtea. Grain ships have been held at its ports, re-fusing to unload until payment can be receivedfor cargo.

With Irans rial currency tumbling, the pricesof rice, bread and meat in Iranian bazaarshave doubled or more in dollar terms in recentmonths.

Iranian grain importers have in the past side-stepped sanctions by booking business throughthe United Arab Emirates, traders said, but thisoption was cut off by the UAE government in

response to sanctions.

Iran has been trading oil in currencies likeJapanese yen, South Korean won and Indianrupees, but such deals make it difcult to repat-riate prots.

Deals revealed on Thursday appear to be amongthe rst in which Iran has had to result to of-fering cashless barter to avoid sanctions, a signof new urgency as it seeks to buy food and get

around the nancial restrictions.

Grain deals are being paid for in gold bullionand barter deals are being offered, one Euro-

pean grains trader said, speaking on conditionof anonymity while discussing commercialdeals. Some of the major trading houses areinvolved.

Another trader said: As the shipments of grainare so large, barter or gold payments are thequickest option.

Details of how the barter deals work are stillunclear as the payments problem is so new, andtraders did not disclose the exact size of suchdeals.

Pivotal time

The economic hardship is being felt in Iran ata pivotal time in its domestic politics and its

nuclear diplomacy with the West. The UnitedStates and Europe say the sanctions are neededto push Iran to the negotiating table before itproduces enough nuclear material to build anatomic bomb.

Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful.Last month it began nuclear enrichment at anew facility deep under a mountain to make itsecure from military strikes.

Iranian ofcials deny that sanctions are havinga serious economic impact, while also sayingthat their people are willing to endure any hard-ship in support of the countrys sovereign rightto nuclear technology.

Ofcials in Israel, Irans arch foe, openly saytime is running out for air strikes to destroy thenuclear programme if sanctions do not per-

suade Tehran to back down.

Irans parliamentary election on 2 March willbe its rst vote since a presidential vote in2009, when Ahmadinejads disputed re-electionagainst a reformist opponent triggered eightmonths of violent street demonstrations.

The Iranian government successfully put thatuprising down by force, but since then the ArabSpring has revealed the vulnerability of au-

thoritarian states in the region to popular angerfuelled by economic hardship.

Reformists are barely represented in next


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months election, having been barred fromstanding or declaring boycotts. The vote will behotly contested between Ahmadinejads sup-porters and conservative opponents who blamehim for economic disarray.

Children of Iranian opposition leaders called onthe international community to help their voicesreach the rest of the world, opposition leaderMirhossein Mousavis website Kaleme reportedon Wednesday.

Reformists are planning a rally next week,which could be a rare test of whether the soar-ing food prices are increasing anger on thestreets.

The 14 February rally would mark a year of

house arrest for Mirhossein Mousavi and Me-hdi Karroubi, the candidates who opposed

Ahmadinejad in 2009. It was announced onMousavis website, Kaleme.

Doomed

The effect of Irans difculty processing pay-ments on often opaque international commodi-ties markets can be felt directly on the streets in

the form of higher prices and shortages.

According to commodities traders in Asia, ship-ments of palm oil from both the top suppliers,Indonesia and Malaysia, have been halted toIran because traders fear they cannot get paid.The two countries account for 90 percent ofglobal supply of the oil, a staple ingredient for

products from margarine to sweets.

I can conrm that Singaporean rms havestopped. We dont want to go anywhere near

Iran at this moment, it is too risky, said atrader with a listed Singaporean rm that shipsIndonesian palm oil cargoes to the Middle Eastand Iran.

A trading source from Saudi Arabia whose rmruns a 16,000-tonne-a-year plant that renesfood oil in Iran said the sector was barely op-erating. A margarine factory owner in Tehransaid on Wednesday he expected to halt produc-tion within months because of a shortage of rawmaterials.

The impact could be felt in a Tehran pastryshop.

We are going bankrupt and probably will beclosed within weeks, said the owner on Thurs-

day. All my ingredients come from abroad.Either the prices suddenly doubled or theystopped being shipped. We are doomed.

While the United States and Europe lack theauthority without the United Nations to bandealings by other countries with Iran, theirmeasures can raise the cost of doing business somuch that it is no longer protable for traders.

The objective of current and likely sanctions isvery simple: to raise the cost of having anythingto do with the purchase or shipping of Iranianpetroleum to such an extent that even suchpotential partners who are formally beyond thelegal jurisdiction of the United States or its al-lies will nonetheless shun doing business withTehran, said J. Peter Pham, with the AtlanticCouncil, a U.S. think-tank.

China, which bought a fth of Irans oil exportslast year, has cut its imports this year in half,seeking a steeper discount which will hurt Iransrevenues.

In public, companies and countries say they willstill trade with Iran as long as it remains legal todo so.

Like all the international companies, we dobusiness there, but you have to be very care-

ful, Paul Conway, chairman of US agribusinessgiant Cargill told Reuters in an interview on

Wednesday.


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Rahul Khullar, trade secretary of India, one ofIrans main trade partners, said: If the EU andthe US both want to stop exports to that coun-try, please tell me why I should follow suit? Whyshouldnt I take up that business opportunity?

Under US pressure, India shut down a pay-ments system for trade with Iran last year.Under a new system, Indian rms are expectedto pay for 45 percent of their Iranian oil importsin Indian rupees to avoid going through inter-national banks. Implementing the system has

been stalled while Indian authorities work outwhether to subject such payments to tax.

Traders revealed this week that Iranian buyershad defaulted on payments for Indian rice. Kh-ullar said there were also payment problems in

tea, although he did not give details. Indian teaexports to Iran fell by a third last year.

Azam Monem, director at McLeod Russel India,the worlds largest tea producer, said exporters

were waiting for a system to be set up so thatIranian buyers can pay in rupees.

Reza Hosseini, a food wholesaler in Tehran,said: The price per regular package of tea has

doubled. Since Iran is a big importer of tea,the sharp rise in price means that there is aproblem with its import.

International shipping rms are cutting backbusiness with Iran. Last year the United Statesblacklisted major Iranian port operator Tidewa-ter Middle East Co, which operates seven ter-minals in Iran including Bandar Abbas, Iransonly container port connected to the worlds big

shipping lines.

I sense that many international shipping com-panies are challenged beyond what they nd can

be justied when looking at the potential earn-ings of trading with Iran, said Jakob Larsen,a maritime security ofcer with BIMCO, the

worlds largest private shipowners association.

Having said that, I think there are still somewho are able to carry on their business in a waythat does not breach sanctions and yet ensures adecent return on investment.

Danish shipping company AP Moller-Maersktold Reuters this week it had suspended new oiltanker deals with Iran due to the EU measures.

German container shipping group Hapag-Lloydsaid on Thursday it no longer offered limited

services to Iran. It had already ended consign-ments last year to Tidewater-run ports.

Iran faces a bigger challenge if US lawmakerspass sanctions on its main tanker group, theprivately run National Iranian Tanker Com-pany (NITC) with a eet of 40 tankers, or on thestate-owned National Iranian Oil Company.

The measure would amount to de facto oil

and shipping embargos, the Atlantic CouncilsPham said. The mere taint would also have anet negative effect on Iran, driving those fear-ful of the reach of sanctions to decide not to gothrough with transactions while giving Iransremaining partners one thinks, for example,of Chinese rms the leverage to drive the pricethey pay down.


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Iran ready for talks

but assertsnuclear path will continue

However, Irans Arabic-language Al Alam television

said the govet had handed a letter to EU foreign policy

chief expressing readiness to hold new talks over its

nuclear programme in a constructive way.

Reuters, Feb 16, 2012


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Iran proclaimed advances in nuclearknow-how, including new centrifuges ableto enrich uranium much faster, a move

that may heighten its confrontation with theWest over suspicions it is seeking the means tomake atomic bombs.

Tehrans determination to pursue a nuclearprogramme showed no sign of wavering despite

Western sanctions that are inicting increasingdamage on its oil-based economy.

The era of bullying nations has passed. Thearrogant powers cannot monopolise nucleartechnology. They tried to prevent us by issuingsanctions and resolutions but failed, PresidentMahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a television

broadcast on Wednesday.

Our nuclear path will continue.

But Irans Arabic-language Al Alam televisionsaid the government had handed a letter to EUforeign policy chief Catherine Ashton express-ing readiness to hold new talks over its nuclearprogramme in a constructive way.

An Ashton spokeswoman conrmed receipt

of the letter, saying she was evaluating it andwould consult the United States, Russia, Chinaand other partners among the big powers.

Iran has long refused to negotiate curbs on itsnuclear programme, saying it is intended purelyfor civilian uses, including producing electricityfor booming domestic demand.

The United States and Israel have not ruled out

military action against Iran if diplomacy andsanctions fail.

Washington played down Irans announcement,saying the advances were neither new nor veryimpressive. We frankly dont see a lot newhere. This is not big news. In fact it seems tohave been hyped, a State Department spokes-

woman said.

IRAN DENIES BANNING OIL EXPORTS

TO EU

Irans Oil Ministry denied a state media reportthat it had cut off oil exports to six EU states.

We deny this report If such a decision ismade, it will be announced by Irans SupremeNational Security Council, a ministry spokes-man said.

Irans English language Press TV had said Te-hran had halted oil deliveries to France, Portu-gal, Italy, Greece, Netherlands and Spain its

biggest EU customers in retaliation for an EUban on Iranian crude due to take effect in July.

The Islamic Republic is the worlds No. 5 oilexporter, with 2.6 million barrels going abroaddaily, about a fth of it to EU countries.

Western sanctions are spreading to block Iransoil exports and central bank nancing of trade,and Tehran has resorted to barter to import

staples like rice, cooking oil and tea, commodi-ties traders say.

The Obama administration is putting pres-sure on the European Union and SWIFT, theglobal organisation that facilitates most of the

worlds cross-border payments, to expel Iranianbanks from its network, a new step in the pushto deprive Iran of funds, a U.S. ofcial said on

Wednesday.

Expelling Iranian banks from the Belgium-based Society for Worldwide Interbank Finan-cial Telecommunication would cut off one ofIrans few remaining avenues to do businessabroad.

European banking regulators may meetSWIFTs board on Thursday to discuss the is-sue, two sources familiar with the matter said.

SWIFT has said previously it is working toresolve the issue but is just a messaging systemfor its 10,000 users.

The most recent talks between world pow-ers and Iran failed in January 2011 because ofTehrans unwillingness to discuss transparentlimits on enrichment, as demanded by severalU.N. Security Council resolutions passed since2006.

The nuclear achievements proclaimed by Te-hran involved a new line of uranium enrichmentcentrifuges and the loading of its rst domes-tically produced batch of fuel into a research


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reactor that is expected to run out of importedstocks soon.

Tehran has for some years been developing andtesting new generations of centrifuges to replaceits outdated, erratic P-1 model. In Januaryit said it had successfully manufactured andtested its own fuel rods for use in nuclear powerplants.

FOURTH GENERATION CENTRIFUGE

Ahmadinejad said the fourth generation ofcentrifuge would be able to rene uranium threetimes as fast as previously.

If Iran succeeded in introducing modern cen-trifuges for production, it could signicantly

shorten the time needed to stockpile enricheduranium, which can generate electricity or, ifrened much more, produce nuclear explosions.

Last year, Iran installed two newer models forlarge scale testing at a research site near thecentral town of Natanz.

But it remains unclear whether Tehran, un-der increasingly strict trade sanctions, has the

means and components to make the more so-phisticated machines in industrial quantity.

We have seen this before. We have seen theseannouncements and these grand unveilings andit turns out that there was less there than meetsthe eye. I suspect this is the same case, saidShannon Kile at the Stockholm InternationalPeace Research Institute (SIPRI).

However, Ahmadinejad said Iran had increasedthe number of centrifuges at its main enrich-ment site at Natanz to 9,000.

In its last report on Iran, in November, theUN nuclear watchdog said there were 8,000installed centrifuges at Natanz, of which up to6,200 were operating.

France said Tehrans latest moves again demon-strated that it would rather ignore international

obligations than cooperate.

A British Foreign Ofce spokesman said: (This)does not give any condence that Iran is ready

to engage meaningfully on the internationalcommunitys well-founded concerns about itsnuclear programme. Until it does so well onlyincrease peaceful and legitimate pressure onIran to return to negotiations.

Russia said global powers must work harder tocoax concessions from Iran, warning that Te-hrans willingness to compromise was waningas it makes progress toward the potential capa-

bility of building nuclear warheads.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov saidU.N. sanctions and additional measures intro-duced by Western nations had had zero effecton Irans nuclear programme.

Iran has threatened retaliation for any attack

or effective ban on its oil exports, suggestingit could seal off the main Gulf export shippingchannel, the Strait of Hormuz, used by a third ofthe worlds crude oil tankers.

NEW FUEL FOR RESEARCH REACTOR

State television aired live footage of Ahmadine-jad loading Iranian-made fuel rods into theTehran Research Reactor and called this a sign

of Iranian scientists achievements.

The Tehran reactor produces radio isotopes formedical use and agriculture. Iran says it wasforced to manufacture its own fuel for the re-actor after failing to agree terms for a deal toobtain it from the West.

In 2010, Iran alarmed the West by starting toenrich uranium to a ssile purity of 20 percent,

saying this was for reprocessing into special fuelfor the Tehran reactor.

A 3.5 percent level is enough to power nuclearpower plants, and the move to 20 percent pu-rity brought Iran signicantly closer to the 90percent needed for a nuclear warhead.

Analysts remained doubtful that Iran would beable to operate the research reactor with its ownspecial fuel.

As usual, the announcement surely is exagger-ated. Producing the fuel plates is not so hard.But the plates have to be tested for a consider-


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able period before they can be used safely inthe reactor, said Mark Fitzpatrick of LondonsInternational Institute for Strategic Studies.

If Iran is really running the reactor with un-tested fuel plates, then my advice to the resi-dents surrounding the building would be tomove somewhere else. It will be unsafe.

Spent fuel can be reprocessed into plutonium,the alternative key ingredient in atomic bombs.But Western worries about Irans nuclear pro-gramme have focused on its enrichment pro-gramme, which has accumulated enough mate-rial for several bombs, in the view of nuclearproliferation experts.

Analysts say the fuel rod development doesnot bring Iran any closer to producing nuclear

weapons, but could be a way of telling its en-emies that time is running out for a negotiatedsolution to the dispute.

Iran appears to have overcome one seriousrecent obstacle to nuclear development by suc-ceeding in neutralizing and purging the Stux-net computer virus from its nuclear machinery,European and U.S. ofcials and private expertstold Reuters. Many believe Israeli operatorsplanted the virus.


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Iran threatens to hitany country used toattack its soil

Iran will target any country used as a launchpad for

attacks against its soil, the deputy Revolutionary

Guards commander said, expanding Tehrans range of

threats in an increasingly volatile stand-off with world

powers over its nuclear ambitions.



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Tehran: Iran will target any country usedas a launchpad for attacks against itssoil, the deputy Revolutionary Guards

commander said, expanding Tehrans range ofthreats in an increasingly volatile stand-off with

world powers over its nuclear ambitions.

Last week, Irans supreme clerical leader threat-ened reprisals for the Wests new ban on Irani-an oil exports and the US defence secretary wasquoted as saying Israel was likely to bomb Iran

within months to stop it assembling nuclearweapons.

Although broadened and sharpened nancialsanctions have begun to inict serious economicpain in Iran, its oil minister asserted on Satur-day it would make no nuclear retreat even if its

crude oil exports ground to a halt.

Iran says its nuclear programme is for civilianenergy purposes. But its recent shift of ura-nium enrichment to a mountain bunker pos-sibly impervious to conventional bombing, andrefusal to negotiate peaceful guarantees for theprogramme or open up to UN nuclear inspec-tors, have thickened an atmosphere of brewingconfrontation, raising fears for Gulf oil supplies.

Any spot used by the enemy for hostile opera-tions against Iran will be subjected to retalia-tory aggression by our armed forces, HosseinSalami, deputy head of the elite RevolutionaryGuards, told the semi-ofcial Fars news agencyon Sunday.

The Guards began two days of military manoeu-vres in southern Iran on Saturday in another

show of force for Irans adversaries associatedwith tensions over its disputed nuclear pro-gramme.

On Sunday Israel appointed a new air forcechief who last month, in his position as topmilitary planner, warned publicly that Israelcould not deal a knock-out blow to its enemies,including Iran, in any regional conict.

The United States and Israel, Irans arch-en-

emies, have not ruled out a military strike onTehran if diplomacy fails to resolve the nuclearstalemate. Israeli Prime Minister BenjaminNetanyahu plans to visit Washington next

month, his ofce said on Sunday, and Israelipolitical sources said he is likely to meet USPresident Barack Obama while there.

Irans Salami did not identify which countrieshe meant as possible hosts for military actionagainst it.

The six, US-allied Arab states in the Gulf Co-operation Council, situated on the other side ofthe vital oil exporting waterway from Iran, havesaid they would not allow their territories to beused for attacks on the Islamic Republic.

But analysts say that if Iran retaliated for an at-tack launched from outside the region by target-ing US facilities in Gulf Arab states, Washingtonmight pressure the host nations to permit those

bases to hit back, arguing they should have theright to defend themselves.

The Gulf states that host US military facilitiesare Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait.

THREAT TO SHUT VITAL OIL CHANNEL

Iran has warned its response to any such strikewill be painful, threatening to target Israel

and U.S. bases in the Gulf, along with closingthe Strait of Hormuz used by one third of the

worlds seaborne oil trafc.

Betraying nervousness about possible blow-back from any military strike on Iran, two ofits neighbours Qatar and Turkey urged the

West on Sunday to make greater efforts to nego-tiate a solution to the nuclear row.

Speaking at the annual Munich Security Con-ference attended by top world policymakers,Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu saidan attack would be a disaster and the disputeover Irans nuclear programme could be ended

very rapidly.

If there is strong political will and mutualcondence being established, this issue could beresolved in a few days, he said. The technicaldisputes are not so big. The problem is mutual

condence and strong political will.

He added: A military option will create a disas-ter in our region. So before that disaster, every-


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body must be serious in negotiations. We hopesoon both sides will meet again but this timethere will be a complete result.

Turkey was the venue of the last talks betweenWestern powers and Iran a year ago whichended in stalemate because participants couldnot even agree on an agenda.

Qatari Deputy Foreign Minister Khalid Moham-ed al-Attiyah said an attack is not a solution,and tightening the embargo on Iran will makethe scenario worse.

I believe that with our allies and friends in theWest we should open a serious dialogue with

the Iranians to get out of this dilemma. This iswhat we feel in our region.

Tehran has warned several times it may seal offthe Strait of Hormuz, throttling the supply ofGulf crude and gas, if attacked or if sanctionsmean it cannot export its oil.

A military strike on Iran and Irans response,which might include an attack on the oileldsof No. 1 exporter Saudi Arabia, would send oilprices soaring, which could seriously harm theglobal economy


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Ahmadinejad nukesWestern threats,

puts fuel rods inreactor

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadine-

jad led his country today in a daring showof nuclear strength to the West by loading

domestically made nuclear fuel rods into theTehran research reactor.

Addressing the world through a televisedspeech, Ahmadinejad reiterated that his coun-trys atomic programme stands on the principleof peace and not annihilation.

The president said that science and knowledgeare heritage of mankind and US and co. cannotmonopolise them and deprive other countries.

The Western countries are arrogant powers of

the world, they have looted all of us, he said.

The president made it clear that Iran is notbuilding bombs and nuclear power does notnecessarily means war.

Anywhere people hear the world nuclear theythink of bomb. It is not so, Ahmadinejad said,adding that Iranian nuke technology will sufcethe countrys energy and medical needs.

President Ahmadinejad accused the Westernpowers of killing Irans scientists and bullyingthem for all these years.

He said the US is killing their scientists, becausethey dont want Iran to progress.

You (Western powers) will not talk, you willwant us to sit on the table and sign whateveryou give. But that time is over now, the presi-dent said.

Commenting on the global hypocrisy, thepresident said, Right now how many coun-tries around us with bombs? They have 10,000

bombs, yet they say they are against bombs.

He said Iran has nally learned the hard way.

The Western countries can no more stop us.

All our enemies are too weak. US is not at allpowerful. We have shown what we can do, Ah-madinejad said.

Irans capacity to increase nuclear fuel produc-tion has enhanced by 50 percent, and the coun-try has 9,000 nuclear centrifuges.

Ahmadinejad said that Iran will proceed withthe nuclear project and it will not be affected by

any propaganda.

Addressing the world through a televised speech,

Ahmadinejad reiterated that his countrys atomic

programme stands on the principle of peace and

not annihilation.

FP Staff Feb 15, 2012


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With nuclear bluster,Iran edges closer to

a confrontation

Tehrans resolve to pursue a nuclear program showed

no sign of wavering despite Western sanctions

inicting increasing damage on its oil-based economy.



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Tehran: Iran proclaimed advances innuclear know-how on Wednesday, in-cluding new centrifuges able to enrich

uranium much faster, a move that may hastena drift towards confrontation with the Westover suspicions it is seeking the means to makeatomic bombs.

Tehrans resolve to pursue a nuclear programshowed no sign of wavering despite Westernsanctions inicting increasing damage on its oil-

based economy.

The era of bullying nations has passed. Thearrogant powers cannot monopolize nucleartechnology. They tried to prevent us by issuingsanctions and resolutions but failed, PresidentMahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a live television

broadcast.

Our nuclear path will continue.

However, Irans Arabic-language Al Alam televi-sion said the government had handed a letterto EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashtonexpressing readiness to hold new talks over itsnuclear program in a constructive way.

An Ashton spokeswoman conrmed receiptof the letter, saying she was evaluating it and

would consult with the United States, Russia,China and other partners among the big powers.

Iran has long refused to negotiate curbs on itsnuclear program, saying it is intended to pro-duce electricity for booming domestic demandand for other civilian uses.

The United States and Israel have not ruled outmilitary action against Iran if diplomacy andsanctions fail.

Washington however played down Irans latestannouncement, saying its reported advances

were not terribly new and not terribly impres-sive.

We frankly dont see a lot new here. This is notbig news. In fact it seems to have been hyped, a

State Department spokeswoman said.

IRAN DENIES BANNING OIL EXPORTSTO EU

Irans Oil Ministry denied a state media reportthat it had cut off oil exports to six EuropeanUnion states.

We deny this report If such a decision ismade, it will be announced by Irans SupremeNational Security Council, a spokesman for theministry told Reuters.

Irans English language Press TV said Tehranhad halted oil deliveries to France, Portugal,Italy, Greece, Netherlands and Spain its big-gest EU customers in retaliation for an EU

ban on Iranian crude due to take effect in July.

The Islamic Republic is the worlds No. 5 oilexporter, with 2.6 million barrels going abroaddaily, and the EU consumes around a fth of

those volumes.

With Western sanctions now spreading to blockIrans oil exports and central bank nancingof trade, Tehran has been resorting to barterto import staples like rice, cooking oil and tea,commodities traders say.

The most recent talks between world pow-ers and Iran failed in January 2011 because of

Tehrans unwillingness to discuss transparentlimits on enrichment, as demanded by severalU.N. Security Council resolutions passed since2006.

NEW GENERATION OF CENTRIFUGE

The nuclear achievements proclaimed by Te-hran involved a new line of uranium enrichmentcentrifuge and the loading of its rst domesti-

cally produced batch of fuel into a researchreactor that is expected to soon run out of im-ported stocks.

Tehran has for some years been developing andtesting new generations of centrifuges to replaceits outdated, erratic P-1 model. In Januaryit said it had successfully manufactured andtested its own fuel rods for use in nuclear powerplants.

Ahmadinejad said the fourth generation ofcentrifuge would be able to rene uranium threetimes as fast as previously.


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If Iran eventually succeeded in introducingmodern centrifuges for production, it could sig-nicantly shorten the time needed to stockpileenriched uranium, which can generate electric-ity or, if rened much more, nuclear explosions.

Last year, Iran installed two newer models forlarge scale testing at a research site near thecentral town of Natanz.

But it remains unclear whether Tehran, un-der increasingly strict trade sanctions, has themeans and components to make the more so-phisticated machines in industrial quantity.

We have seen this before. We have seen theseannouncements and these grand unveilings andit turns out that there was less there than meets

the eye. I suspect this is the same case, saidShannon Kile at the Stockholm InternationalPeace Research Institute (SIPRI).

However, Ahmadinejad said Iran had signi-cantly increased the number of centrifuges atits main enrichment site at Natanz, saying there

were now 9,000 such machines installed there.

In its last report on Iran, in November, the

U.N. nuclear watchdog said there were 8,000installed centrifuges at Natanz, of which up to6,200 were operating.

MAJOR THREAT, FRANCE SAYS

France said Tehrans latest moves again demon-strated that it would rather ignore internationalobligations than cooperate.

A British Foreign Ofce spokesman said: (This)does not give any condence that Iran is readyto engage meaningfully on the internationalcommunitys well-founded concerns about itsnuclear program. Until it does so well only in-crease peaceful and legitimate pressure on Iranto return to negotiations.

Russia said global powers must work harder tocoax concessions from Iran, warning that Te-hrans willingness to compromise was waningas it makes progress toward the potential capa-

bility of building nuclear warheads.

Making a case for a renewed dialogue, DeputyForeign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said U.N.sanctions and additional measures introduced

by Western nations had had zero effect on its

nuclear program.

Iran has threatened retaliation for any attackor effective ban on its oil exports, suggestingit could seal off the main Gulf export shippingchannel, the Strait of Hormuz, used by a third ofthe worlds crude oil tankers.

NEW FUEL FOR RESEARCH REACTOR

State television aired live footage of Ahmadine-jad loading Iranian-made fuel rods into theTehran Research Reactor and called this a signof Iranian scientists achievements.

The Tehran reactor produces radio isotopes formedical use and agriculture. Iran says it wasforced to manufacture its own fuel for the Te-hran reactor after failing to agree terms for adeal to obtain it from the West.

In 2010, Iran alarmed the West by starting toenrich uranium to a ssile purity of 20 percentfor the stated purpose of reprocessing into spe-cial fuel for the Tehran reactor.

In boosting enrichment up from the 3.5 per-cent level suitable for powering civilian nuclearplants, Iran moved signicantly closer to the 90percent threshold suitable for the ssile core ofa nuclear warhead.

Analysts remained doubtful that Iran would beable to operate the research reactor with its ownspecial fuel.


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As usual, the announcement surely is exagger-ated. Producing the fuel plates is not so hard.But the plates have to be tested for a consider-able period before they can be used safely inthe reactor, said Mark Fitzpatrick of LondonsInternational Institute for Strategic Studies.

If Iran is really running the reactor with un-tested fuel plates, then my advice to the resi-dents surrounding the building would be tomove somewhere else. It will be unsafe.

Spent fuel can be reprocessed into plutonium,the alternative key ingredient in atomic bombs.But Western worries about Irans nuclear pro-gram have focused on its enrichment program,

which has accumulated enough material for upto several bombs, in the view of nuclear prolif-

eration experts.

Analysts say the fuel rod development itself willnot put Iran any closer to producing nuclear

weapons, but could be a way of telling Tehransadversaries that time is running out if they wantto nd a negotiated solution to the dispute.

Iran appears to have overcome one seriousrecent obstacle to nuclear development by suc-ceeding in neutralizing and purging the Stux-net computer virus from its nuclear machinery,European and U.S. ofcials and private expertstold Reuters. Many believe Israeli operatorsplanted the virus.


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Terror map:

Bangkok, Georgia, New Delhi


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Iranian bomber maimed

in blasts in Thai capital

An Iranian man was seriously wounded in Bangkok

on Tuesday when a bomb he was carrying exploded

and blew one of his legs off in an incident Israel said

was an attempted terrorist attack by Iran.



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Bangkok: An Iranian man was seriously

wounded in Bangkok on Tuesday whena bomb he was carrying exploded and

blew one of his legs off in an incident Israel saidwas an attempted terrorist attack by Iran.

Shortly beforehand, there had been an explo-sion in a house the man was renting in the Eka-mai area of central Bangkok. Soon after that,there was a third blast on a nearby road, Thaipolice and ofcials said.

The police have control of the situation. Itis thought that the suspect might be storingmore explosives inside his house, governmentspokeswoman Thitima Chaisaeng told report-ers.

Police said they had detained another supsectat Bangkoks main Suvarnabhumi airport, oneof two men they were looking for who had beenliving at the house where the initial blast tookplace.

We discovered the injured mans passport. Itsan Iranian passport and he entered the countrythrough Phuket and arrived at Suvarnabhumi

Airport on the 8th of this month, Police Gen-

eral Bansiri Prapapat told Reuters.

The three explosions in Bangkok came a day af-ter bomb attacks targeted Israeli embassy staffin India and Georgia. Israel accused Iran and itsLebanese ally Hezbollah of being behind thoseattacks. Iran denied involvement.

Hezbollah is a Shiite group backed by Syria andIran that is on the U.S. blacklist of foreign ter-

rorist organisations.

Thai ofcials declined to say whether the twomen they had detained were involved with anymilitant group, but Israeli Defence MinisterEhud Barak blamed Iran.

The attempted terrorist attack in Bangkokproves once again that Iran and its proxies con-tinue to perpetrate terror, Barak said on a visitto Singapore.

Iran and Hezbollah are unrelenting terror ele-ments endangering the stability of the region,and endangering the stability of the world, said

Barak, who spent a few hours in Bangkok onSunday.

Iran strongly denied any involvement in theThai incident.

The Foreign Ministry spokesman rejectedIsraeli claims that Iran was involved in theBangkok bombing and added that efforts by theZionist regime to harm friendly and historicrelations between Iran and Thailand will bearno fruit, the semi-ofcial Fars news agencyreported.

TAXI A TARGET

Thai police said they were working to make safean unspecied amount of explosives found in

the house where the initial blast took place.

Police declined to make any link between Tues-days incident and the arrest last month of aLebanese man in Bangkok who, according to theThai authorities, had links to Hezbollah.

The police discovered a large amount of explo-sive material in an area southwest of Bangkokat around the time of that arrest. The United

States, Israel and other countries issued warn-ings, subsequently lifted, of possible terroristattacks in areas frequented by foreigners.

The Lebanese man has been charged with pos-session of explosive material and prosecutorssaid further charges could follow next week.Tuesdays blasts were not near Israels embassynor the main area for embassies.

A taxi driver told Thai television the wounded

suspect had thrown a bomb in front of his carwhen he refused to pick him up near the site ofthe rst blast. The driver was wounded slightly.

Government spokeswoman Thitima said policehad then tried to move in and arrest the man

but he attempted to throw another bomb atthem. It went off before he was able to do so,

blowing one of his legs off. A doctor at Chu-lalongkorn Hospital told reporters the other leg

had to be amputated.

Another doctor was quoted on TV as sayingthree Thai people had suffered minor injuries,in addition to the taxi driver.


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Thailand confirmsIranians planned toattack Israeli diplomats

Thailands police chief also conrmed that the type of

explosive a homemade sticky bomb found at

the blast site matched the devices planted on Israeli

diplomatic cars in India and Georgia.

AP, Feb 16, 2012


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Bangkok: Thailands police chief said theIranians who were arrested after ac-cidentally setting off explosives at their

rented home in Bangkok were plotting to attackIsraeli diplomats, bolstering claims by Israelthat the group was part of an Iranian-backednetwork of terror.

I can tell you that the target was specic andaimed at Israeli diplomatic staff, police chiefGen Prewpan Dhamapong told a Thai televisionstation late Wednesday.

He also conrmed that the type of explosive ahomemade sticky bomb found at the blastsite Tuesday matched the devices planted onIsraeli diplomatic cars in India and Georgia aday earlier.

The type of improvised explosives they usedwere the same. The type that was attached tovehicles, he said, conrming that an investiga-tion into a magnetic strip found in Bangkok wasthe same type used in New Delhi.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahudenounced the violence, while Irans Foreign

Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparastcalled the allegations baseless and said Israel

was trying to damage his countrys relationswith Thailand and fuel conspiracy theories.

Thailands government says it is still trying topiece together what happened when a group ofthree Iranian men accidentally detonated ex-plosives at a home they had rented in Bangkoks

busy Sukhumvit Road area a day earlier. Bombdisposal teams combed the Iranians houseagain Wednesday looking for more evidence,

while security forces were searching for an Ira-nian woman they said had originally rented it.

Two of the men were detained in Bangkok onTuesday after eeing the destroyed house, whilea third was arrested Wednesday in neighboring

Malaysia after boarding a ight from Bangkokto Kuala Lumpur overnight.

Israel has accused Iran of waging a campaign ofstate terror and has threatened military strikeson Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran has blamedthe Jewish state for the recent killings of Iranianatomic scientists and has denied responsibilityfor all three plots this week.

Watch Video
http://av.firstpost.com/2012/02/delhi_bangkok_link.mp4http://www.firstpost.com/


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Delhi car blast:

No leads, soeveryone under scanner

With Israel pointing the nger at Iran, the possible

role of nationals of middle-eastern countries is being

investigated.

FP Staff, Feb 16, 2012


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The search for the mysterious biker whoallegedly planted the sticky bomb that

blew up an Innova in a high-securityzone injuring four, including an Israeli diplo-mat, on Monday, continues.

With Israel pointing the nger at Iran, the pos-sible role of nationals of middle-eastern coun-tries is being investigated.

Students and visitors from Lebanon, Iran andJordan have come under the police scanner, andaccording to news reports, eight persons haveso far been questioned and released in relationto the blast.

The Foreigner Regional Registration Ofce(FRRO) has been asked by the police to provide

details of visitors from Jordan and Iran, reportsthe Times of India.

Israeli investigators, including agents from thesecret service Mossad, who have inspected the

blown-up Innova, have said there are similari-ties between the bombs used in Delhi and Bang-kok, suggesting that the bomb could have beenmade outside the country.

The presence of potassium chlorate and nitratein the bomb as reported in a preliminary fo-rensic report, also points to the bombs foreignorigin, as local terror modules reportedly do nothave expertise in handling these substances,TOI reports.

But the police is also looking at the involvementof local elements and several suspects have beendetained in overnight raids. Yesterday, the in-

vestigators had said that the motor-cyclist whoplanted the bomb on the Israeli embassy carmay have been of Indian origin. They had alsoadded that the bomb that was used may have

been made locally, NDTV reported.

A massive hunt has also been launched to ndthe bike that is suspected to have been used in

the operation.

Meanwhile, the Innova driver, Manoj Sharma,in an interview to the Indian Express, has saidhe didnt see any motorcyclist. I was waiting atthe Race Course signal when I heard a thud atthe rear end of the car, like somebody pusheditI did not notice carefully what car was be-hind me, but there was no bike.


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Israel: Waiting to strike


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How Israel is hustling

the US and rushingto strike Iran

Barack Obama began his presidency by reaching out

to Iran. But he has been dragged by pressure from

Israel and neoconservatives - and by Irans failure to

respond - into talking of war. Peace stands no chance.

Venky Vembu, Feb 14, 2012


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The bomb attackon the Israeli embassy

vehicle in New Delhi on Monday hasdragged India squarely into the crossre

of an ongoing war of nerves in West Asia be-tween Israel and Iran over the latters nuclearprogramme.

That confrontation has been brewing for a longtime: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanya-hu had as far back as in 1996 warned that if theIranian regime, which he characterised as themost dangerous in West Asia, were to acquirenuclear weapons, it would have catastrophicconsequences not just for his country or theregion, but for all mankind.

Yet, that tension was accentuated, particularlyafter Barack Obama took ofce as US President

in 2009, because fundamentally Israeli leadersdid not trust Obama then and barely trust himnow.

Obamas promise, which he articulated evenduring his campaign, to reach out to Irans lead-ers in the hope of talking them out of acquiringnuclear weapons, caused them deep disquiet

because it represented a slideback from the bel-ligerent neoconservative narrative of the George

W Bush years.

Additionally, in early meetings with Obamaeven before he took ofceit dawned on Israelileaders, including Netanyahu, that Obamaperhaps saw the effort to pre-empt Iranian nu-clearisation not from the perspective of Israelssecurity (which was on top of their minds) butfrom a global non-proliferation perspective.

In other words, in their estimation, Obama wasdriven by a John Lennon-esque pacist visionfor the world, not by shoot rst, talk later hab-its of the neocons.

From all accounts, from his rst day in ofce,Obama was under pressure from all around from Israel, from hardline members of the USCongress who favoured confrontation with Iran,from the spies and spooks in the CIA who had

been waging dirty wars in Iran and even

from Saudi Arabia and several other Arab allies.

In one memorable conversation between SaudiKing Abdullah and US General David Petraeus

in early 2008, the king urged the US to cutoff the head of the snake (Read the rollicking

WikiLeaks account here.)

Leaders in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emir-ates and Egypt (then under the Hosni Mubarak)referred to Iran on various occasions as an ex-istential threat, and an evil force that woulddrag the region to war.

The irony is that today, even Obama has aban-doned his peacenik overture towards Iran andeven his efforts to let sanctions do the job. To-day, his administration has been hustled reluc-tantly into talking the language of war.

Trita Parsi, author of A Single Roll of the Dice:Obamas Diplomacy with Iran, argues that it

wasnt that Obamas diplomacy failed. On theother hand, it was prematurely abandoned.

Obamas intention, argues Parsi, was genuine,but his vision for diplomacy was undermined byseveral factors.

Most important of these was pressure fromIsrael and its Conservative allies in the USCongress, to adopt a policy of confronting Iran.

It didnt also help Obama that in June 2009,the Iranian administration crackdown on anopposition uprising over electoral malpractice which gave rise to some of the most horricimages of violence, beamed around the world.

The shrill Republic primary debates of recentmonths, with every leader (barring Ron Paul,the libertarian candidate) sounding off belliger-ently against Iran whenever they were asked

how they would respond as Presidents to theIranian nuclear crisis also cramped the spacefor Obamas diplomatic manoeuvres.

In recent weeks, an Israel emboldened by allthis war talk has been hyping up the prospectof a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities

by this spring and, signicantly, getting USadministration ofcials to echo that sentiment..

It is in that context, with the sanctions hurt-

ing Iran and with suspected Israeli operativescarrying out targeted assassinations of Iraniannuclear scientists, that the war of nerves has

been escalated.


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Mondays bomb attack in New Delhi is just onesmall skirmish in the protracted war. But it hashad the effect of dragging India, which has up

until now been standing up to pressure to abideby the sanctions against Iran (out of its ownself-interest), into the thick of the war.

Watch Video
http://av.firstpost.com/2012/02/220508_israel_iran_flashpoint-1.mp4http://www.firstpost.com/


31/64

Israel says Bangkok bombis Iran terror attempt

After the trio of blasts on Tuesday in Bangkok, the

Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, has accused Iran

of being behind the attack. Its unclear whether

Tuesdays Bangkok explosions were linked to the

New Delhi attack



32/64

Bangkok: After the trio of blasts onTuesday in Bangkok, the Israeli defenseminister has accused Iran of being be-

hind the attack.

Israel said the Bangkok blast that blew the legsoff an Iranian man carrying grenades was an at-tempted terrorist attack sponsored by Tehran.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak stopped shortof saying the man was trying to target Israelis.However, it came a day after Israel blamed Iranfor attacks targeting Israeli diplomats in Indiaand Georgia. And Baraks comments made clearthat Israel considers the attacks connected andsponsored by the Iranian government.

Authorities say its unclear whether Tues-

days Bangkok explosions were linked to theNew Delhi attack, but Israeli Foreign Ministryspokesman Yigal Palmor said, we cant rule outany possibility.

Thai security forces found more explosives ina house where the Iranian man was staying inBangkok, but it was not known what targetsthey might have been meant for, Police GenPansiri Prapawat said.

Pansiri said a passport found at the scene of oneof the blasts in Bangkok indicated the assail-ant was Saeid Moradi from Iran. Authorities inTehran could not immediately be reached forcomment.

Tuesdays violence began in the afternoon whena stash of explosives apparently detonated byaccident in Moradis house, blowing off part of

the roof. Police said two foreigners quickly leftthe residence, followed by a wounded Moradi.

He tried to wave down a taxi, but he was cov-ered in blood, and the driver refused to takehim, Pansiri said. He then threw an explosiveat the taxi and began running.

Police who had been called to the area thentried to apprehend Moradi, who hurled agrenade to defend himself. But somehow it

bounced back and blew off his legs, Pansirisaid.

Photos of the wounded Iranian showed him

covered in dark soot on a sidewalk strewn withbroken glass. He lay in front of a Thai primaryand secondary school. No students were report-ed wounded.

A dark satchel nearby was investigated by abomb disposal unit. Pansiri said police foundIranian currency, US dollars and Thai money inthe bag.

Three Thai men and one Thai woman werebrought to Kluaynamthai Hospital for treat-ment of injuries, said Suwinai Busarakamwong,a doctor there.

Another Iranian was detained on Tuesdaynight at Bangkoks international airport as heattempted to leave for neighbouring Malay-sia, said police commander Winai Thongsong.

Authorities were interrogating the man, but itwas not yet known whether he was involved inTuesdays blasts.

Last month, a Lebanese-Swedish man with al-

leged links to pro-Iranian Hezbollah militantswas detained by Thai police. He led authori-ties to a warehouse lled with more than 8,800pounds (4,000 kilograms) of urea fertilizer andseveral gallons of liquid ammonium nitrate.

Israel and the United States at the time warnedtheir citizens to be alert in the capital, but Thaiauthorities said Thailand appeared to have beena staging ground but not the target of any at-tack.

Pansiri said that so far, we havent found anylinks between these two cases.


33/64

Immigration police are trying to trace Moradismovements, but initial reports indicated he ewinto Thailand from Seoul, South Korea on Feb.8, Pansiri said. He landed at the southern Thairesort town of Phuket, then stayed in a hotelin Chonburi, a couple hours drive southeast ofBangkok, for several nights.

In Jerusalem, Israeli foreign ministry spokes-man Yigal Palmor said there was not yet anysign that any targets in Bangkok were Israeli orJewish.

Thailand has rarely been a target for foreign ter-rorists, although a domestic Muslim insurgencyin the countrys south has involved bombings of

civilian targets.

Local media said trafc had been halted whileauthorities investigated.

Last month, a foreign suspect with allegedlinks to Hezbollah militants led Thai police to a

warehouse lled with more than 8,800 pounds(4,000 kg) of urea fertiliser and several gallonsof liquid ammonium nitrate.

Israel and the United States warned their citi-zens to be alert in the capital, but Thai authori-ties said Thailand appeared to have been a stag-ing ground but not the target of any attack.

Watch Video
http://av.firstpost.com/2012/02/215940_iranbangkok.mp4http://www.firstpost.com/


34/64

Israel point fingersat Iran for attacksin India, Georgia

Israel has had a standing alert for tourists visiting

India since a 2008 attack on a Jewish centre in

Mumbai.



35/64

Jerusalem: Israel accused arch-enemiesIran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah of

being behind twin bomb attacks thattargeted embassy staff in India and Georgia onMonday, wounding four people.

Tehran denied involvement in the strike, whichhas amplied tensions between two countries atloggerheads over Irans contested nuclear pro-gram. Hezbollah, the powerful Shiite Muslimmovement in neighboring Lebanon, declinedcomment.

Police in the Indian capital New Delhi said abomb wrecked a car carrying the wife of theIsraeli Defence attache as she was going to pickup her children from school. She needed sur-gery to remove shrapnel but her life was not in

danger, ofcials said.

Three others suffered lesser injuries in the sameblast. Israeli ofcials said an attempt to bomban embassy car in the Georgian capital Tbilisihad failed and the device was defused.

Israel had put its foreign missions on high alertahead of the anniversary of the February 12,2008 assassination in Syria of the military mas-

termind of Hezbollah, Imad Moughniyeh anattack blamed on the Jewish state.

Israel is also believed to be locked in a widercovert war with Iran, whose nuclear programhas been beset by sabotage, including the un-claimed killings of several Iranian nuclear scien-tists, most recently in January.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick

to blame both Iran and Hezbollah, accusingthem of responsibility for a string of recentattempted attacks in countries as far apart asThailand and Azerbaijan.

Iran and its proxy Hezbollah are behind eachof these attacks, said Netanyahu. We will con-tinue to take strong and systematic, yet patient,action against the international terrorism thatoriginates in Iran.

Irans ambassador to India denied that his gov-ernment had anything to do with the attack onthe New Delhi embassy.

Any terrorist attack is condemned (by Iran)and we strongly reject the untrue comments byan Israeli ofcial, Mehdi Nabizadeh was quot-ed as saying by IRNA. These accusations areuntrue and sheer lies, like previous times.

Israeli ofcials have long made veiled threats toretaliate in Lebanon for any Hezbollah attack ontheir interests abroad, arguing that as the mili-tia sits in the government in Beirut, its actionsreect national policy.

MOTORCYCLE ATTACK

The New Delhi blast took place some 500 me-ters from the ofcial residence of Indian PrimeMinister Manmohan Singh.

B.K. Gupta, the New Delhi police commissioner,said an eyewitness had seen a motorcyclist sticka device to the back of the car, which had diplo-matic plates.

The eyewitness says it (was) some kind ofmagnetic device. As soon as the motorcyclemoved away a good distance from the car, thecar blew up and it caught re, said Gupta.

The Iranian scientist killed in Tehran lastmonth died in a similar such attack. No one hasclaimed responsibility for this.

Israel named the injured woman as TalyaYehoshua Koren.

She was able to drag herself from the car andis now at the American hospital (in New Delhi),

where two Israeli doctors are treating her, said

a Defence ministry spokesman.

Thailand said last month its police had ar-rested a Lebanese man linked to Hezbollah andhe later led them to a warehouse stocked with

bomb-making materials.

Also last month, authorities in Azerbaijan ar-rested two people suspected of plotting to attackIsraels ambassador and a local rabbi.

In a January 24 speech, Israels military chief ofstaff, Lieutenant-General Benny Gantz, accusedHezbollah of trying to carry out proxy attacks

while avoiding direct confrontation. Israel and


36/64

Hezbollah fought an inconclusive and costly warin 2006.

During this period of time, when our enemiesin the north avoid carrying out attacks, fearing aharsh response, we are witnesses to the ongoing

attempts by Hezbollah and other hostile entitiesto execute vicious terror attacks at locations faraway from the state of Israel, Gantz said.

I suggest that no one test our resolve.


37/64

Israel may not strikeback too hard:

analysts

Israel is unlikely to respond harshly, as they were

low-level hits that do not warrant strong retaliation,

analysts here said.

PTI, Feb 14, 2012


38/64

Despite some tough rhetoric againstIran and Hizbullah following attacks onIsraeli targets in New Delhi and Tblisi,

Israel is unlikely to respond harshly, as theywere low-level hits that do not warrant strongretaliation, analysts here said.

Israels Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuvowed to continue to act forcefully, systemati-cally and patiently against Iranian terror andhis foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, saidhis country would not overlook the attacks,

but experts here do not see the attacks leadingto tough response for varied reasons.

One reason for this is that if, as is widely be-lieved, Israel is behind a recent series of assassi-nations of Iranian nuclear scientists in Tehran,

government ofcials presumably knew thatrevenge attacks were likely and took that pos-sibility into account, an opinion piece in dailyHaaretz said.

It said though an innocent diplomats wife can-not be compared to a scientist directly involvedin Irans nuclear programme, Mondays attacks

were still limited enough, and did not violatethe rules of the game.

Indeed, the modus operandi of the New Delhibombing exactly mimicked that used to kill sev-eral of the Iranian scientists, he added, conclud-ing that hence a direct Israeli military strike oneither Hizbullah or Iran seems unlikely.

The other explanation put forward in this re-gard in the local media is that while Iran andHizbullah have been trying to take revenge for

Imad Mughniyehs assassination ever since itoccurred on February 12, 2008, Tal Yehoshua,the Israeli diplomats wife, is the rst casualty ina long line of failed attacks.

The previous attacks, which according to inter-national media, have been thwarted by close co-operation between Israeli intelligence and localsecurity services, included attempts to bomb theIsraeli embassy in Azerbaijan, to assassinate anIsraeli consul in Turkey, and, most recently, to

bomb popular tourist sites frequented by Israe-lis in Thailand.

Netanyahu also referred to some of these at-

tacks yesterday in his reaction.

Mondays targets, two embassy cars neither ofwhich was on mission grounds at the time, wereboth relatively low-level targets located at theouter perimeter of the security envelope Israelprovides its overseas embassies and consulates,an analyst said.

This may indicate that Hizbollah and Iran arehaving trouble reaching more prestigious tar-gets, he inferred.

Moreover, while both attacks attest to carefulobservation and planning and precise execu-tion, the results were meager enough that nei-ther Tehran nor Beirut is likely to be rejoicing,he stressed.

Nevertheless, some feel that the attacks may bethe rst in a series of such attacks to follow.

These analysts feel that the planners of the at-tacks deliberately chose to inict modest dam-age while they were capable of wreaking greaterharm.

They backed the contention by arguing that

Israel has repeatedly warned that a mass-casu-alty Hizbullah attack on Israeli targets overseas

would spark a massive Israeli assault on Leba-non, and that is something Iran doesnt seem to

want right now.

Some experts also saw the attacks in the light ofsurprising comments made last week by Hizbol-lah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a speech in Bei-rut in which he stressed that his faction doesnt

take orders from Iran.

It could be that Nasrallah already knew of theplans for Mondays attacks and was trying toportray them as independent Hizbullah initia-tives, an expert said in his opinion piece.

Hizbullahs interest in distancing itself fromIran, at least verbally, stems in part from theorganisations difcult domestic situation, henoted.

Tuesday is the seventh anniversary of formerLebanese Prime Minister Rak Hariris as-sassination, and despite Nasrallahs repeated


39/64

denials, many Lebanese, along with much of theinternational community, think that Hizbullah

was behind that killing.

Adding to Hizbullahs domestic woes is the factthat one of its key allies, the Bashar Assad re-gime in Syria, may not survive.

The Syrian opposition no longer bothers to hideits loathing for Hizbullah and Iran, so a newSyrian government would likely be bad news forthe Lebanese organisation.


40/64

US: A tight rope walk


41/64

The United States and Europe are weighing

unprecedented punishment against Iran that could

cripple the countrys nancial lifeline but result in

higher oil prices for the US and its allies.

PTI, Feb 14, 2012

US, Europe look at fast

but risky penalty onIran


42/64

Washington: The United States andEurope are weighing unprecedentedpunishment against Iran that could

cripple the countrys nancial lifeline but resultin higher oil prices for the US and its allies. Un-derscoring the potential costs, Iran on Wednes-day cut oil exports to six European countries.

The Obama administration wants Iran evictedfrom SWIFT, an independent nancial clear-inghouse that is crucial to the countrys over-seas oil sales. That would leapfrog the currentslow-pressure campaign of sanctions aimed atpersuading Iran to drop what the US and itsallies contend is a drive toward developing and

building nuclear weapons. It also perhaps wouldbuy time for the US to persuade Israel not tolaunch a pre-emptive military strike on Iran this

spring.

But its an extreme option in the banking worldthat would come with its own costs oil pricescould soar, even as many of the worlds econo-mies are still frail. Underscoring that possibility,Iran on Wednesday cut oil exports to the Neth-erlands, Spain, Italy, France, Greece and Por-tugal. And in another deant move, Iran beganloading domestically made nuclear fuel rods

into its Tehran research reactor.

In the nancial world, the United States cantorder SWIFT to kick Iran out. But it has lever-age in that it can punish the Brussels-basedorganisations board of directors. Talks arefocused now on having Europe make the rstmove.

Short of total expulsion, Washington and rep-

resentatives of several European nations are intalks over ways to restrict Irans use of the bank-ing consortium to collect oil prots.

The Obama administration is divided overwhether the possible gain is worth the risk intrying to threaten SWIFT into kicking out amember country, in part because of concernthat it would set back the global nancial recov-ery. Iran remains a global nancial player de-

spite years of banking sanctions, and blocking itfrom using the respected transfer system would

be a black mark like no other.

More than 40 Iranian banks and institutionsuse SWIFT to process nancial transactions,and losing access to that ow of internationalfunds could badly damage the Islamic republicseconomy. It would also probably hurt averageIranians more than the welter of existing bank-ing sanctions already in place since prices forhousehold goods would rise while the value ofIranian currency would drop.

SWIFT handles cross-border payments for morethan 10,000 nancial institutions and corpora-tions in 210 countries. It lets users exchangenancial information securely and reliably,

thereby lowering costs and reducing risk. It op-erates on trust and neutrality SWIFT acceptsnearly all comers and does not judge the meritsof the transactions passing through its securemessage system. Its managers generally brushoff investigators and enforcement agencies,telling them to take up suspected wrongdoingdirectly with nations or corporations.

Established in 1973, the essential but little-

known hub is overseen by major central banks,including the U.S. Federal Reserve and theEuropean Central Bank.

While the US and Europe debate options, someAmerican lawmakers are trying to increasepressure on SWIFT. The Senate Banking Com-mittee passed a measure earlier this monthdirecting the White House to press SWIFT to

block Iranian entities. A tougher House bill

would compel the administration to sanctionSWIFT unless it stopped providing services toIran.

In a brief statement posted on its website,SWIFT said it is committed to ghting misuseof the nancial system to nance terrorism andhas cooperated with enforcement agencies inthe US and Europe.


43/64

Dwindling time,

rising tension makeIran top fear

Time is running short for Iran to back down

without a ght.

AP, Feb 9, 2012


44/64

Washington: The prospect of conict

with Iran has eclipsed Afghanistan asthe key national security issue with

a head-spinning speed. After years of bad bloodand an international impasse over Irans disput-ed nuclear program, why does the threat of warseem so suddenly upon us?

The short answer is that Iran has used theyears of deadlock over whether it was pursu-ing a bomb to get within roughly 12 months of

being able to build one. Iran claims its nuclearprogram is not aimed at building a bomb, butit has refused to drop suspect elements of theprogram.

Time is running short for Iran to back downwithout a ght. Time is also running short for

either the United States or Israel to mount apreemptive military strike on Irans nuclearsites, something that seemed far-fetched untilfairly recently. It is still unlikely, and for theUS represents the last worst option to stop anIranian bomb.

The United States has a very good estimateof when Iran could produce a weapon, Presi-dent Barack Obama said this week. He said that

while he believes the standoff with Iran over itsnuclear program can still be resolved throughdiplomacy, the US has done extensive planningon a range of options.

We are prepared to exercise these optionsshould they arise, Obama said during an inter-

view with NBC. He said Israel has not made adecision about whether to launch its own strike.

Diplomacy and economic coercion are the mainfocus for the US and its allies, and the preferredoption. But the increasingly strong warningsfrom Obama and other leaders reect a globalconsensus that Iran is closer than ever to join-ing the nuclear club.

In November, the International Atomic EnergyAgency issued a scathing assessment of theIranian nuclear program, calling it disturbingand possibly dangerous. The IAEA, a UN body,

said it had serious concerns regarding possiblemilitary dimensions of a program Iran claimsis not intended to guild a weapon.

Close US ally Israel is driving much of the burstof international attention now focused on thelikelihood of an Iranian bomb and what to doabout it.

When a country that refers to you as a cancer-ous tumor is inching, however slowly, toward anuclear weapons capability, its understandablydifcult to relax and keep quiet, said KarimSadjadpour, an Iran exert at the Carnegie En-dowment for International Peace.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahufrequently draws parallels between modern-dayIran and Nazi Germany on the eve of the Holo-caust. Last week, Defense Minister Ehud Baraksaid there is a growing global understandingthat military action may be necessary.

For Obama, the threat that the United Statesmight use military force must ring true to Ira-nian leaders while not sounding alarmist to

Americans or jittery oil markets. He has beenvery cautious, which is why his recent, blunterwords are notable.

With the clock in mind, the Obama administra-tion is moving much faster than expected to ap-

ply the heaviest economic penalties yet on Iranand the oil trade it relies on. This week camea surprise announcement of new sanctions onIrans central bank, a key to the regimes oilprots.

Previous rounds of penalties have not changedIrans course, but the U.S. and Europe, which

just approved a rst-ever oil embargo, arguethat they nally have Irans attention. The new

oil-focused sanctions are intended to cut therevenue Irans rulers can collect from the coun-trys oil business without roiling oil markets.

While Obama has until late June to make a naldecision on how to implement even stronger -nancial sanctions, a person advising the admin-istration on the penalties said an announcementprobably would come well ahead of that dead-line. The adviser spoke on condition of anonym-ity because the White House plan is not nal.

Among the factors pushing up a decision: thepossibility of a unilateral Israeli strike and thedesire to avoid disrupting oil markets in the


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summer, when gasoline prices are usually al-ready higher.

With Republican presidential candidates ques-tioning Obamas toughness on Iran, the WhiteHouse also has a political interest in appear-ing to take a proactive approach to enforce thesanctions, rather than simply responding to acongressional deadline, the adviser said.

The threat of military action is also used tostrengthen the diplomacy.

Countries like China, a major buyer of Iranianoil, dont like sanctions but go along becauseopposing them may increase the likelihood ofmilitary action that would spike prices for theoil they buy, Sadjadpour said.

White House national security spokesmanTommy Vietor would not comment on whetherthe timetable is being moved up. He rejected theidea that the administration is under the gun.

We said all options on are on the table. That isnot bellicose and that is not new, Vietor said.What were trying to do is lead Iran to make achoice.

Israel has less time to act than the U.S. if itchose to mount a strike alone, U.S. and otherofcials said. Because Israel has less repower,its leaders assess that a unilateral strike would

be most effective before summer. After that, byIsraeli estimates, Iran may have been able tomove too much of its nuclear operation under-ground, beyond the range of Israeli missile and

bomb attacks.

There is another reason that Israeli warningsare growing louder. Although Israel and theUnited States generally agree on the technical

questions surrounding an Iranian bomb, theydisagree about how much time that leaves fordiplomacy or a last-ditch military strike.

Israeli ofcials who favor a strike do not wantto wait for Iran to amass enough material to

build a bomb, a debatable moment that couldbe as little as six months away. U.S. ofcials areconcerned that the ability to make a bomb isnot enough justication for a strike. They haveargued there is 18 months or more of exibility

before Iran would pose an immediate nuclearthreat.

Matthew Kroenig, a nuclear expert at the Coun-cil on Foreign Relations who recently spent a

year advising the Pentagon on Iran options,agrees that the window for an effective strike by

either country is closing.

The game is over when Iran amasses enoughhighly enriched uranium for a weapon, Kroenigsaid. If you wait until they screw together anuclear bomb, its too late.

Administration ofcials are in discussions withseveral countries, including Japan, South Korea,China and India, to try to get commitments on

how much they may be willing to reduce theirimports from Iran. Iran exports about 3 percentof the worlds oil and increasingly has focusedon selling to customers in Asia as Western mar-kets have dried up.

Talks are also under way with Turkey, South Af-rica, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Malaysia, all main

buyers of Iranian crude.

Any sanctions the U.S. ultimately levies wouldprobably target companies in countries thatpurchase oil from Iran, not central banks, theperson advising the administration said.


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Washington: Pointing out that UShas pretty good bead on Irans nu-clear programme, President Barack

Obama today said Washington is ready withall options, including military, against threatscoming from Tehran but would prefer to have it

resolved diplomatically.

My goal is to try to resolve this diplomatically,mainly because the only way, over the longterm, we can assure Iran doesnt get a nuclear

weapon is by getting them to understand its notin their interest, Obama told the NBC news inan interview.

In the interview taken yesterday, but aired to-day, Obama said the US, however, is ready withall the other options if need be.

But, did not give details of the military prepara-tions in this regard.

Im not going to discuss specic military pro-grammes or go into details in terms of what ourplanning is.

I will say this, that we have done extensiveplanning over the last several years about all our

various options in the Gulf. And, you know, weare prepared to exercise these options, shouldthe need arise, he said.

Obama said the US has good estimate of theprogress in Iranian nuclear weapons pro-gramme.

I think we have a very good estimate of whenthey could potentially achieve breakout capac-ity, what stage theyre at in terms of processinguranium, he said.

But do we know all the dynamics inside Iran?Absolutely not.

I think one of the difculties is that Iran itselfis a lot more divided now than it was. Know-ing who is making decisions at any given timeinside of Iran is tough.

But we do have a pretty good bead on whatshappening with their nuclear program, Obamasaid.

Ready with alloptions on Iran:

ObamaObama today said Washington is ready with all

options, including military, against threats coming

fromTehran but would prefer to have it resolved

diplomatically.

AP, Feb 9, 2012


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India: And the subcontinent


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After Pakistan, is Iran

exporting terror toIndia?

It seems sheer lunacy to suggest that Iran would use

India as a base from which to launch terror attacks

on Israel. But if theres one thing missing from Irans

strategic posturing, its the semblance of sanity.



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Mondays bomb attackon an Israeliembassy vehicle in New Delhi, whichIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu blamed on Iran and the Hezbollah,is bound to intensify the diplomatic heat onIndia to stop trading with Iran at a time whenthe US and Israel are tightening the sanctionssqueeze on it.

Iran has rejected the Israeli accusation of Ira-nian involvement as sheer lies. Irans ambas-sador to New Delhi Mehdi Nabizadeh dismissedNetanyahus charge as untrue and sheer lies,like previous times.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson RaminMehmanparast went further to suggest thatthe blast was the work of Israel to defame Iran

internationally. It seems that these suspiciousincidents are designed by the Zionist regimeand carried out with the aim of harming Iransreputation, he said.

On the face of it, it seems counter-intuitive,even downright lunacy, for Iran to use Indianterritory as the base for an extra-territorial at-tack on Israel. After all, India is one of the lastmajor economies that is resolutely holding out

against abiding by the sanctions imposed onIran and has even told the US off bluntly.

Even as recently as last week, Foreign SecretaryRanjan Mathai, who was on a visit to Washing-ton, told US authorities that India would notsever its oil trade with Iran; Finance MinisterPranab Mukherjee too had been extraordinarily

blunt in conveying the same message to the USwhen he too was in the US last fortnight.

India has in recent days come under immensepressure from US ofcials and Jewish lobbygroups in the US to sever its relationship withIran. The American Jewish Congress, a strongpressure group in the US, recently wrote toIndias ambassador in the US Nirupama Rao ex-pressing alarm and dismayover indias moveto elevate commercial interests with Iran overvital security concerns.

After Mondays bomb blast, India will nd itincreasingly difcult to placate both Iran, onthe one hand, and the US and Israel, on theother, says Lisa Curtis, Senior Research Fellow

for South Asia in the Asian Studies Center atThe Heritage Foundation.

Now that Israeli diplomats have been targetedin New Delhi, it will be increasingly difcult forIndian ofcials to sweep under the carpet theirgrowing trade relations with Tehran. India,Curtis added, would have to seriously factor thecosts of oil trade with Iran to its rapidly growingdefence partnership with Israel.

The skills of Indian strategists who seek to bal-ance Indias role as a growing global power withits need to guard against the prospect of ris-ing regional instability will be tested in comingmonths as the international confrontation withIran intensies, Curtis noted.

In effect, diplomatic pressure is already pilingon India.

So, it would be sheer idiocy for Iran or theShia army of Hezbollah over which Iran hascontrol to use India as the platform for anattack, knowing that it would intensify pressureon India to end its trade relationship with Iran.

But if theres one thing missing in Irans strate-

gic posturing over its avowed nuclear plans, it isthe semblance of sanity. Unlike Pakistan, whichacquired its nuclear assets on the sly by ying

beneath the radar of international attention,Iran has been drawing excessive attention to itsnuclear program with to its over-the-top rheto-ric directed against Israel and the US. Even theself-preservation instinct isnt kicking in strongenough among Irans leaders.

But whereas India could afford to go out on adiplomatic limb in trading with Iran despite theongoing war of nerves between that regime andIsrael, it could be harder to defend the possi-

bility that Iran is perhaps exporting terror toIndia, even if it is directed at a third country.

Indian diplomats have in the past fretted thatIran was looking to inuence opinion makers inIndia, including journalists and policy thinktankofcials, to project an anti-American view and

inuence Indian foreign policy to acquire a pro-Iran, anti-US tilt.

An Indian diplomat conded to US ofcials in


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2007 that there was evidence that Iran hasbeen buying off journalists, clerics and editorsin Shia-populated areas of Uttar Pradesh andKashmir, doling out large sums to stoke anti-

Americanism. He also suggested that increas-ingly, it appeared that Iran was focussingsquarely on inuential elite audiences in Delhi,

with a view to shaping the debate of Indias (nu-clear energy) policy and the (Indo-US) nucleardeal.

But whereas such propaganda wars may be tol-erable from an Indian perspective, any sugges-

tion that Iran is now going beyond that to usethe weak internal security situation in India asan opening to wage terror attacks on diplomatsof third countries is fraught with grave conse-quences.

Even if India doesnt wish to be caught up in thetug-of-war in West Asia over Israels oppositionto Irans nuclear weapons program, it mightprove increasingly difcult for India to avoid

being dragged in. That faraway battle is nowcoming closer home to India.


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India:A friend of two enemies

India is suddenly caught in the ght between Iran

and Israel. The need of the hour is a clinically

perfect diplomatic response from New Delhi.

Simantik Dowerah, Feb 13, 2012


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India seems to be in a delicate situation,caught between two friends, following thealleged Iranian hand behind the attack on

the Israeli diplomat vehicle in the heart of NewDelhi.

While Iran is a massive supplier of crude oil toIndia, Israel has a very close relationship withNew Delhi in terms of defence cooperation.

Following the attack, Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu squarely blamed Tehranfor the terror attack on a woman Israeli diplo-mat on Monday afternoon, that critically in-

jured her.

New Delhi was already facing challenges whileimporting crude from Iran owing to payment

related problems that surfaced due to sanctionsby the Barack Obama administration on theMahmoud Ahmadinejad regimes nuclear ambi-tions.

For 2010-11, Indias total trade with Iran wasequal to $13.67 billion, which included imports

worth $10.92 billion and exports worth $2.74billion, a Times of India report said today.

Adding to the complications, Iran which has tilldate not recognised Israel as a sovereign state,has serious differences with Jerusalem on itsnuclear programme.

Lately there have been several news reports thatIsrael might attack Irans nuclear facilities andthat it was responsible for the elimination of akey nuclear scientist of the alienated Islamicregime.

This enmity is old but the problem for India isthat if Israels current allegations are true, thenthe Israel-Iran ght has just spilled over to aneutral country.

The blast in New Delhi today cannot be seen inisolation of the current geo-political crisis in theMiddle East. The blast might have far-reachingramications for Indias energy and defenceneeds.

Israelis were victims in the 2008 terror attackson a Jewish centre in Mumbai. However, in thatattack by Pakistani terrorists the Iranian angle

was not there.

Ironically, India and Iran agreed upon a rupeemechanism on Monday to pay for the increasingoil imports by New Delhi.

While India cannot afford to stop importing oilfrom Iran

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