first responders back to basics - 2020 national hurricane … symons powerpoint... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
FIRST RESPONDERSBACK TO BASICS
NHC CONFERENCE 2017
Leonard B. SymonsDeputy Commissioner
Public SafetyTown of Oyster Bay N.Y.
SYMONS SAYS: LINE
History teaches us that a lack of hurricane awareness and
preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters.
By knowing your vulnerability you can reduce the effects of a disaster.
THE BIG BATTLE
1. HURRICANE HYPE
2. HURRICANE AMNESIA
3. SOCIAL MEDIA
4. MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS
Shark Infested Streets in NYC ?
Wikipedia: Definition of 1st
Responder
Employee’s of an Emergency Service who are likely to be among the 1st people to arrive at the scene of An Emergency such as an accident, natural disaster or terrorist attack
2007 – Such an Innocuous Year?
a. Steve Jobs and Apple released the first I-phone.
b. Facebook opened itself to anyone with e-mail
c. Twitter
d. Hadoop - software storage
e. The Cloud
f. Kindle – E book revolution
g. IBM - Watson
1st Responders - New Definition
Emergency Responders / Managers are part of the social safety network and are interpreters of weather information for the public and decision makers for planning and responding to events that threaten life and property
The New 1st Responder
a. The power of one
b. Trusted source
c. Decision Makers
d. Information Brokers (weather briefers)
Meteorologist
a. Professionals
b. Education to become a (MET) is Demanding, Challenging and Humbling … Physics, Math, Technology, Software, Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences.
“The only certainty in tropical cyclone forecasting is uncertainty”
“The only certainty in tropical cyclone forecasting is uncertainty”
LEONARD SYMONS
Deputy Commissioner Public Safety
UNCERTAINTY IS THE FUNDAMENTAL COMPONENT OF
WEATHER PREDICTION
…….MAX MAYFIELD
MAX MAYFIELD Former Director of the National Hurricane Center
• “I think the day is coming. I think eventually we are going to have a very powerful hurricane in a major metropolitan area worse than what we saw in Katrina and it is going to be a mega-disaster with lots of loss of lives.”
Tropical Weather Outlook
– Tropical Depression: < 39 mph
– Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph
– Hurricane: 74 mph or greater•Major Hurricane: 111 mph or greater
Tropical CyclonesClassified by Maximum Wind Speed
Tropical Weather OutlookClimatologyAtlantic Hurricanes & Tropical Storms
• Categorical(Low, Medium, and High)
• Probabilities
Current location of disturbances(discussed in the Tropical Weather Outlook)
Formation chance during the next 48 hrs
Tropical Outlook2-Day Formation Potential
Tropical Outlook2-Day Formation Potential
Should we be concerned?
Tropical Outlook5-Day Formation Potential
• Formation potential during the next 5 days
• Initial location of disturbance (X) indicated
• Shading represents potential formation area
What’s the chance this areaforms beyond two days?
Tropical Outlook5-Day Formation Potential
Tropical Outlook
July 28 @ 8am
2 Day – 30%5 Day – 70%
Tropical Outlook
July 31 @ 8am
2 Day – 70%5 Day – 70%
There is a storm.How confident is the NHC?
Contingencies?Are watches possible?
• Forecast Discussion
Forecast DiscussionConfidence. Scenarios. Key Concerns.
HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
Hurricane Isaac is inland over southeastern Louisiana near Houma.
The cyclone has maintained an impressive radar signature, which
includes a ragged 40-nmi diameter eye. Curved convective rain
bands have increased in the eastern semicircle, and Doppler radar
velocities of near 80 kt over water support keeping Isaac as a
minimal hurricane for this advisory. Similar Doppler velocities
over land and over Lake Pontchartrain suggest wind gusts to near
80 kt could occur over southeastern Louisiana into this afternoon.
By late this afternoon or evening, however, Isaac is forecast to
weaken to a tropical storm, and become a tropical depression by
Thursday night.
Since Isaac is forecast to move slowly over the next 24-36 hours,
there will be a prolonged threat of flooding from heavy rains over
the northern Gulf coast area and the south-central United States.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 29.6N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/0000Z 30.2N 91.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1200Z 31.2N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0000Z 32.8N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1200Z 34.6N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 38.0N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
• Relevant Observations
•Model Guidance
• Forecast Uncertainties
Forecasts reasoning
Forecast DiscussionConfidence. Scenarios. Key Concerns.
HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
Hurricane Isaac is inland over southeastern Louisiana near Houma.
The cyclone has maintained an impressive radar signature, which
includes a ragged 40-nmi diameter eye. Curved convective rain
bands have increased in the eastern semicircle, and Doppler radar
velocities of near 80 kt over water support keeping Isaac as a
minimal hurricane for this advisory. Similar Doppler velocities
over land and over Lake Pontchartrain suggest wind gusts to near
80 kt could occur over southeastern Louisiana into this afternoon.
By late this afternoon or evening, however, Isaac is forecast to
weaken to a tropical storm, and become a tropical depression by
Thursday night.
Since Isaac is forecast to move slowly over the next 24-36 hours,
there will be a prolonged threat of flooding from heavy rains over
the northern Gulf coast area and the south-central United States.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 29.6N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/0000Z 30.2N 91.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1200Z 31.2N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0000Z 32.8N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1200Z 34.6N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 38.0N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Table of track and intensity forecasts
Tropical Cyclone UpdateUnexpected Changes. Location. Landfall.
HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0920121100 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
...ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
HEAVY SQUALLS LASHING NEW ORELANS AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...
At 1100 am CDT...1600 UTC...The center of hurricane Isaac was
Estimated near latitude 29.6 north...Longitude 90.7 west...Or very
Near Houma Louisiana...And about 45 miles southwest of New Orleans
Louisiana. Isaac is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph...9
Km/h and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight.
A gust to 67 mph was recently reported at Shell Beach, Louisiana.
Tropical storm conditions continue along the Mississippi and
Alabama coasts.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 90.7W
ABOUT 1 MI...2 KM W OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN/ZELINSKY
• Unexpected changesoccur in the cyclone
• Cyclone landfall
• Issuing internationalwatches and warnings
• 1-hourly position estimates when a cyclone with an eye is nearing land
There is a storm.When is the next update?Can we get a briefing?
• Timeline for advisories
Timeline for AdvisoriesScheduled Updates
Time in EDT
No Watches/Warnings In Effect
• 5 am – Advisory
• 11 am – Advisory
• 5 pm – Advisory
• 11 pm – Advisory
Time in EDT
• 5 am – Advisory• 8 am – Intermediate Advisory
• 11 am – Advisory• 2 pm – Intermediate Advisory
• 5 pm – Advisory• 8 pm – Intermediate Advisory
• 11 pm – Advisory• 2 am – Intermediate Advisory
Watches/Warnings In Effect
Timeline for AdvisoriesScheduled Updates
There is a storm.Where is the greatest concern?When will the hazards begin?
• Watches and Warnings
• Notification Fatigue
MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS
The Global Hawk is a new Bird recently discovered in Butterfly world
in Florida.
Global Hawk
FOLLOW THE LONG SKINNY BLACK LINE AND YOU WILL KNOW WHERE
THE STORM IS GOING
The Long Skinny Line
Hurricane CharleyDon’t focus on the skinny black line.
Tropical Weather OutlookHurricane CharleyDon’t focus on the skinny black line.
Tropical Weather Outlook
3737
Hurricane CharleyDon’t focus on the skinny black line.
THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IS MY GUIDE
TUNE IN TO YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER PERSON
SEE IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CIRCLE
IF NOT DON’T WORRY – NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO YOU
THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IS MY GUIDE
TUNE IN TO YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER PERSON
SEE IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CIRCLE
IF NOT DON’T WORRY – NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO YOU
• Probable track of tropical cyclone center
• Formed by connecting circles centered on each forecast point
• Each circle uses NHC historical track errorsActual storm position will be within the circle 67% of the time.
NHC Forecast ConeThe cure for the skinny black line?
NHC Atlantic Track Error TrendsSignificant Reduction in Track Errors Since 1990
Change in Average 2-day Track Error Since 1990
Change in Average 2-day Track Error Since 1990
Cone On a Diet
2005 Cone for Katrina
Cone On a Diet
2015 Cone - Smaller cone means more impacts occur outside the cone!
Impacts Outside the Cone!
• Only shows information about track uncertaintyNo information about specific impacts
• Impacts can occur well outside of the coneCenter is expected to move outside the cone about 1/3 of the time.
NHC Forecast ConeNo worries, not in the cone?
CONE WIND ENHANCEMENT
SYMONS SAYS:
a. Don’t just look at the graphics
b. Don’t just look at the cone
c. Don’t just look at the long skinny line
Little Progress with Intensity
Notable improvements in intensity forecasts over the past few years.Beginning of a trend?
24-48 h intensity forecasts likely to be off by
one SSHS category, and off by two SSHS
categories perhaps 5-10% of the time
The 24 and 48 hour NHC intensity forecasts are on average off by oneSaffir-Simpsoncategory.
0 1 2 3 4 5
Forecast Period (Days)
9
13
Incr
eas
ing
Erro
r (k
t)
Forecast Intensity ErrorsNHC 5-Year Averages
Rapid intensification remains a forecast challengeand often results in very large errors• Our ability to recognize conditions that favor rapid intensification has
improved, however forecasting the extent and timing of that intensification remains difficult.
2 Rapid Strengthening Examples
• Wilma Advisory 11 (2005)Initial Intensity: 60 kt24h Intensity Forecast: 80 ktActual Intensity: 150 ktError: 70 kt
• Gonzalo Advisory 7 (2014)Initial Intensity: 75 kt24h Intensity Forecast: 90 ktActual Intensity: 115 ktError: 25 kt
Forecast Intensity ErrorsRapid Strengthening
SYMONS SAYS:
A Category 4 hurricane (131-155 mph) causes 250 times the damage as a Category 1
Even though the major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 & 5 storms) comprise only 21% of all U.S. land falling hurricanes, they account
for 83 % of all damage.
SYMONS SAYS:FORECAST MODELS
a. Computer Simulation of the Global Atmosphere
b. Dynamical, Statistical, Ensembles,consensus
c. The future of Forecasting – Ensemble Predictions vs Deterministic
d. GFS vs. Euro (Initialization/Members/Grid Spacing)
e. The Future – High Resolution (4 NM Grid Spacing) Ensemble Forecast System
HOW ABOUT THOSE SPAGHETTI PLOTS?
I like my pasta “al dente”
Some of those lines are nowhere near my home.
Homemade sauce anyone?
WHEN I WAS IN SCHOOL, I DID VERY WELL IN MATH.
WHEN IT COMES TO NUMBERS, I KNOW WHAT I’M DOING.
25% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS 75% FOR NONE.
NO NEED TO PANIC – NO NEED TO PREPARE
• Location-specific probabilities– Tropical-storm-force– 58 mph– Hurricane-force
• Text product(fixed set of locations)– Cumulative probabilities – Onset probabilities
• Graphical product– Cumulative probabilities for
points over a large domain
Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHow Likely. Arrival Times. Inland Threat
NHC Tropical Cyclone
Advisory ProductsWind Speed ProbabilitiesHow are they generated?
• 1,000 realistic alternative scenarios are created– Official NHC forecast
– Historical NHC track andintensity forecast errors
– Climatology and persistence wind radii model
• Weakening over land
• Track model spreadPast NHC track forecast errors are correlated to the spread of track model guidance
New York City, NY
590 of 1,000 scenarios produce tropical storm winds at that location.
Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHow are they generated?
590/1,000 = 59%chance of TS force winds
59%
New York City, NY
Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHow are they generated?
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC SUN AUG 26 2012
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 30(55) 16(71) 2(73) 1(74)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 15(29) 2(31) 1(32)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 32(42) 31(73) 5(78) X(78)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 5(39) 1(40)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) X(18)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 35(64) 8(72) 1(73)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 8(33) 1(34)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 34(58) 10(68) 1(69)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 7(28) 2(30)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12)
When are Tropical Storm (34kt) winds most likely to start at Pensacola, FL?
Pensacola, FL
Wind Speed ProbabilitiesTropical Storm Isaac (2012)
NHC Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products
Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHurricane Katrina
Landfall of a marginal hurricanein South Florida
– Low probabilities of hurricane force winds
Landfall of a major hurricane along the Gulf Coast
– Increasing probabilities alongthe forecast as landfall approaches
NHC Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products
Low ProbabilityUncertainty if Katrina will be a hurricaneand the small size of hurricane wind field
36hr Forecast80 mph
Cat 1 Hurricane
Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHurricane Katrina – Adv #5
10% chance of hurricane-force winds at any individual point
along SE Florida coast
NHC Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products
6464
New OrleansTS probability: 59%H probability: 15%
72 hour forecast
intensity = 130 mph
category 4 hurricane
Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHurricane Katrina – Adv #14
Increasing ProbabilitiesIncreasing intensity forecast anddecrease in track forecast uncertainty
NHC Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products
48 hour forecast
intensity = 145 mph
category 4 hurricane
Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHurricane Katrina – Adv #18
High ProbabilityIncreasing intensity forecast andgreater track certainty – 48hr until landfall
New OrleansTS probability: 86%H probability: 34%
Hurrevac
66
HurrevacWind threat –Wind Speed Probabilities
66
Hurrevac:
67
Wind timing
HurrevacWind Timing – All Affected Areas
Report for Hurricane Arthur Based on Advisory 11 Issued 7/3/2014 11 AM EDT
Wind Timing All Affected Areas
Location 34kt(39mph) 50kt(58mph) 64kt(74mph) 64ktEND(dur) 50ktEND(dur) 34ktEND(dur) Peak Wind
NC Dare 07/03 22E 07/04 02E 07/04 03E 07/04 06E [03] 07/04 07E [05] 07/04 09E [11] 90kt (104mph) 07/04 04E
NC Hyde 07/03 21E 07/04 01E 07/04 02E 07/04 04E [02] 07/04 06E [05] 07/04 08E [11] 90kt (104mph) 07/04 03E
NC Carteret 07/03 16E 07/03 21E 07/04 00E 07/04 03E [03] 07/04 04E [07] 07/04 07E [15] 90kt (104mph) 07/04 02E
NC Craven 07/03 18E 07/03 23E 07/04 01E 07/04 02E [01] 07/04 03E [04] 07/04 05E [11] 64kt (74mph) 07/04 01E
NC Pamlico 07/03 19E 07/04 00E 07/04 04E [04] 07/04 06E [11] 61kt (70mph) 07/04 02E
NC Onslow 07/03 15E 07/03 21E 07/04 01E [04] 07/04 04E [13] 60kt (69mph) 07/03 23E
NC Tyrrell 07/03 23E 07/04 03E 07/04 06E [03] 07/04 08E [09] 58kt (67mph) 07/04 04E
NC Jones 07/03 18E 07/03 22E 07/04 01E [03] 07/04 04E [10] 56kt (64mph) 07/04 00E
NC Beaufort 07/03 20E 07/04 01E 07/04 03E [02] 07/04 06E [10] 55kt (63mph) 07/04 02E
NC Currituck 07/04 01E 07/04 05E 07/04 06E [01] 07/04 09E [08] 52kt (60mph) 07/04 05E
NC Pender 07/03 15E 07/03 21E 07/03 23E [02] 07/04 02E [11] 52kt (60mph) 07/03 21E
NC New Hanover 07/03 13E 07/03 18E 07/03 21E [03] 07/04 01E [12] 52kt (60mph) 07/03 19E
NC Brunswick 07/03 12E 07/03 18E 07/03 20E [02] 07/04 00E [12] 52kt (60mph) 07/03 18E
NC Washington 07/03 23E 07/04 07E [08] 49kt (56mph) 07/04 03E
NC Camden 07/04 01E 07/04 08E [07] 46kt (53mph) 07/04 05E
MA Nantucket 07/04 21E 07/05 04E [07] 45kt (52mph) 07/05 00E
NC Pasquotank 07/04 02E 07/04 08E [06] 44kt (51mph) 07/04 04E
WIND TIMING CHARTS AND REPORTS
▪ BASED UPON A DETERMINISTIC FORCAST
▪ DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTIES
▪ NOT A GOOD PLATFORM OFF OF WHICH TO
MAKE DECISIONS UNTIL THE STORM IS CLOSE
▪ GOOD FOR GENERAL INFORMATION AND
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
EXPERIMENTAL TIME OF ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE
WINDS GRAPHIC
1. 39+ Winds-A critical Planning Threshold2. Timing estimated using Deterministic NHC Track3. Monte Carlo wind Speed Probability Model ( 1000
Plausible Scenarios )4. Two graphics:
10% Chance of Onset of Trop Winds 50% chance of Onset of Trop Winds
Probability Of Arrival Of Tropical Storm Force Winds
SURGE IS ,LIKE A TSUNAMI – A HIGH WALL OF WATER LIKE WHEN YOU
HAVE AN EARTHQUAKE
There is nothing out there to tell me whether my area will be flooded except
my own eyes and ears.I know an earthquake when I see one.
Hurricane Katrina Storm Surge
IF THE WIND INCREASES, I WOULD CONSIDER EVACUATION.
WIND SPEED IS THE CRITERIA FOR EVACUATION.
SYMONS SAYS:
Old Hurricane adage
Hide from the wind and run from the water.
I HAVE THIS MAP – COLOR CODED –WHERE FLOODING IS LINKED TO
CATEGORY OF STORM UNDER THE SAFFIR SIMPSON WIND SCALE.
IT TELLS ME HOW FAR THE WATER WILL PENETRATE INLAND.
THE STORM IS ONLY A CAT 2 – I’M HOME FREE
Remember Ike, Charlie and Irene
LONG ISLAND FLOOD MAP
WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS
• GRANDMA SAYS “IF WE GO TO THE BEACH, WE CAN’T GO INTO THE WATER BECAUSE IT IS TOO DANGEROUS”.
• DAD SAYS “GRANDMA MISSED THE LATEST FORECAST –SUNNY AND WARM – NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT”.
Tropical Weather OutlookWaves and Rip CurrentsCan occur when a storm is well offshore
Swells from a large hurricane can affect the beach of the entire western Atlantic
Hurricane Bertha (2008)- Over 1500 rescues in
Ocean City, Maryland
- 3 people drowned alongthe coast of New Jersey
Hurricane Bill (2009)- 1 person died in Maine- 1 person died in Florida
I HAVE LIVED ALL MY LIFE HERE –THE STORMS ALWAYS CURVE AWAY.
ANYWAY I AM WORRIED ABOUT WIND NOT WATER.
U.S. Tropical Cyclone DeathsWater is responsible for vast majority
from 1963 - 2012
SATTELLITES ARE REALLY NOT THAT IMPORTANT
SOMEONE TOLD ME THAT IF THE EURO MODEL DID NOT HAVE THE
DATA FROM THE 14 POLAR ORBITING SATTELLITES, THE FIVE
DAY FORECAST WOULD HAVE HAD SANDY MISSING THE NORTHEAST.
ECMWF
GOES 16 - High Def from the Heavens
a. Launch date 11/19/16
b. 1st major redesign in more then 20 years
c. Image of Conus –once / 5 minutes
d. Higher Resolution
e. Lightning Mapper
HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS AFFECT THOSE LIVING
ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND THERE IS NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT.
INLAND FLOODING RESPONSIBLE FOR 50% + DEATHS
WHEN I WAS IN 9TH GRADE, I TOOK EARTH SCIENCE.
YES, THAT WAS 30 YEARS AGO BUT I KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT
HURRICANES.
THIS STORM IS NO SANDY AND NO IRENE.
What did we learn?
The strongest winds in a hurricane typically are on the left side of the
storm.
Hurricane Sandy Track
Track maximized storm surge
STORM SURGE
• WHAT IS THE MEANING OF 20’ OF SURGE?
• OFTEN THE GREATEST THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY
• DOES NOT ALWAYS OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME OR LOCATION AS HAZARDOUS WINDS
• SEPARATE WARNINGS FOR WIND AND WATER
• 10% EXCEEDENCE VALUE- INUNDATION
Tropical Weather OutlookStorm Surge Storm Surge vs Storm Tide
STORM SURGE – An abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide.
STORM TIDE – The water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide.
• IntensityStronger storm = More storm surge
• Size (RMW)Bigger storm = More storm surge
• Forward SpeedSlower storm = Storm surge farther inland
• Width and Slope of Shelf (Bathymetry)Gradual shelf = More storm surge
• Angle of approachAlters focus of storm surge
• Central PressurePressure driven surge about 5% of total storm surge
Tropical Weather OutlookStorm SurgeFactors Affecting Storm Surge
NHC Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products
Storm SurgeSLOSH Model
Sea,Lake, andOverlandSurges from HurricanesA numerical model used to estimate storm surge heights resultingfrom historical, hypothetical,or predicted hurricanes
Storm Surge
Tropical Weather OutlookStorm Surge Components of ‘Total Water Level’
Total Water Level Storm surge + Tides + Wave Setup + Freshwater
Tropical Weather OutlookHurricane IvanWhat a difference a bay makes.
Hurricane IvanWhat a difference a bay makes.
Deterministic SLOSH Limited surge threat to Pensacola area
Hurricane IvanWhat a difference a bay makes.
Hurricane IvanWhat a difference a bay makes.
Hurricane Irene
Advisory #22
Forecast Track
Alternate P-surge Tracks
Probabilistic Storm SurgeMultiple Tracks and Landfall Locations
NHC Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products
Probabilistic Storm SurgeWeb Based. Timing. Availability.
• Available when a Hurricane Watch/Warning is in effect• 48 hours prior to arrival of TS winds
• Available approx 1 hourafter full advisory times
• 0500 0600 EDT• 1100 1200 EDT• 1700 1800 EDT• 2300 0000 EDT
ADVISORY TIME P-SURGE AVAILABLE
SYMONS SAYS:
What are two items not included in storm surge watch/warning graphics and inundation?
SYMONS SAYS:
What are two items not included in storm surge watch/warning graphics and inundation?
WAVE ACTION
FRESH WATER FLOOD
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
1. Life threatening inundation from a tropical cyclone, sub tropical cyclone, post tropical cyclone and maybe a potential tropical cyclone
2. National Storm Surge Hazard Maps- Interactive/ Risk Eval
3. Hurricane local statements
4. NHC public advisory
5. Issuance of watches and advisories for potential tropical cyclones will include potential cyclone advisory package
6. Tropical Tidbits
INUNDATION MAP / WATCH WARNING
When available?
INUNDATION MAP / WATCH WARNINGWhen available?
WHEN A WATCH / WARNING IS POSTED OR ANYTIME WITHIN 48 HOURS OF EXPECTED TROPICAL WINDS ON LAND.
Storm SurgePotential Inundation Graphic
NHC Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products
Storm Surge WarningGraphic
SYMONS SAYS:The greatest peacetime evacuation in American history was Hurricane Floyd
(category 4) in 1999
• Over 3.5 million people, from 4 states, (Fla, GA, N.C. and S.C) evacuated.
• Trips that normally took 2 hours lasted 16 -18 hours.
• 2 million Floridians left their homes.
FLOODING SOURCES
a. The sea
b. Fresh water
c. Rain runoff, river and stream rise
Where do we find rainfall forecasts?
FLOODING SOURCES
a. The sea
b. Fresh water
c. Rain runoff, river and stream rise
Where do we find rainfall forecasts?
LOCAL WFO HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT OR NHC/NWS (WPC).
WHO’S THE BOSS – NHC OR WFO?
a. All Hazards are Local – Downscaled and refined at the WFO
b. HLS – Hurricane Local Statement• Lead Statement
• Areas Covered
• Watch/Warning
• Recommend Precautionary Action/Timing
• Surge and Storm Tide Information
National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Weather Forecast Offices (WFO)
Work together to provide a clear and consistent tropical message trustworthy message
NHC Storm Specific Information – Large ScaleStorm Intensity, track, size
Domain of interest moves with stormPotential Surge ValuesWind Values
WFO Offices - DownscaledFocus on local storm impacts Domain of interest is local County Warning Area
NWS Forecast OfficesHurricane Local Statements
HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL242005
530 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THIS PRODUCT COVERS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
**EXTENSIVE TO DEVASTATING DAMAGE AND LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HURRICANE WILMA MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA**
NEW INFORMATION
-----------------------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
MIAMI-DADE…BROWARD…PALM BEACH…COLLIER…GLADES AND MONROE COUNTIES
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI -DADE…BROWARD…PALM
BEACH…COLLIER…HENDRY…GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 405 MI SW OF NAPLES FL
- 22.1N 86.6W
- STORM INTENSITY 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
- MOVING NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
---------------------------------
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTH
FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION IN SURGE-PRONE AREAS OF COLLIER/MAINLAND
Issued by local NWS office• Hurricane (Tropical Storm)
Watch/Warning in effect
Situation overview• Watch/warning information• Potential impact information• Preparedness actions
REMEMBER
Biggest single enemy in this high consequence, low
probability event is
COMPLACENCY !!!