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Fiscal Crises

Paulo Medas Fiscal Affairs Department

International Monetary Fund

Conference “Public debt, fiscal policy and EMU deepening”

European Central Bank, Frankfurt, November 20-21

This presentation is based on an IMF working paper WP/17/86 authored by Kerstin Gerling, Paulo Medas, Tigran Poghosyan, Juan Farah-Yacoub, and Yizhi Xu. The views are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Motivation

1

Ten of the Worst Crises Since 2005 (decline in the real GDPpc growth rate, percentage points)

Motivation

Sound fiscal policy seen as key ingredient for stability and

sustainable growth …

… but empirical identification of fiscal crises is scarce

Previous literature Focuses mainly on public debt defaults (legal definition) … … mostly external … … mostly in advanced and emerging economies Baldacci et al. (2011) is an exception (economic criteria)

• Also adopted by the EC recently (Sumner & Berti 2017)

Our contribution Wider country and time coverage (all 188 IMF members, 1970-2015) Improved identification methodology Event study analysis – dynamics of macroeconomic variables around fiscal crises

2

Our database 436 fiscal crises in total, of which:

25 in Advanced Markets (AM)

154 in Emerging Markets (EM)

171 in Low-Income and Developing Countries (LIDC)

86 in Small Developing States (SDS)

Existing databases Reinhart & Rogoff (2011): 75 external

and 26 domestic defaults

Baldacci et al. (2011): 176 fiscal crises

Laeven & Valencia (2012): 67 debt defaults

Bruns & Poghosyan (2016): 201 fiscal crises

Sumner & Berti (2017): 88 fiscal crises

Outline

I. New Database on Fiscal Crises II. Empirical Analysis III. Concluding remarks

3

I. New Database on Fiscal Crises

4

Red Flags: How To Identify Fiscal Crises?

5

• Any year in which actions of the sovereign reduce the PV of public debt • Exclude technical defaults • Examples: Bulgaria 1990; Macedonia 2010

1. Credit event

• Any year under a large IMF financial arrangement … • … with fiscal adjustment as a program objective • Examples: Hungary 2008; Ireland 2010

2. Official financing

• Any year with a very high inflation • Any year with domestic arrears accumulation (new!) • Examples: Belarus 1999; Russia 2007

3. Implicit default

• Any year with a very high price of market access • Any year with loss of market access (new!) • Examples: Ukraine 2008; Romania 2009

4. Market confidence

6 Note: AM = advanced markets, EM = emerging markets, LIDC = low-income and developing countries, SDS = small developing states.

Criterion Main Sources

AMs EMs LIDCs SDSs

(1) Credit event Any operation that makes creditors incur material economic losses on the sovereign debt they hold (e.g. default, restructuring, or rescheduling) (i) of substantial size (in percent of GDP p.a.)(ii) if (i) holds and the defaulted nominal amount grows by a substantial amount (in percent p.a)

(2) Exceptionally large official financing

High-access IMF financial arrangement with fiscal adjustment objective in place (in percent of quota)

▪ IMF

(3) (a) High inflation rate (in percent of growth of annual average CPI p.a.)

≥ 35 ≥ 35 ▪ IMF

(b) Steep increase in domestic arrears (in first difference of the ratio of 'other account payables (OAP)' to GDP in percentage points)

▪ OECD and Eurostat

(4) (a) Loss of market access ▪ Guscina, Sheheryar and Papaioannou (2016) and Gelos, Sahay, and Sandleris (2004)

h h b d (b) High price of market access (in basis points, sovereign spreads or CDS spreads)

Thresholds

▪ BoC (2016)

>0.2≥ 10

≥ 100

≥ 100

≥ 1

Loss of market confidence

when market access is lost (after maintaining market

access for a 1/4 of the sample time and 2 consecutive years

before the loss year)

≥ 1,000 bps

Implicit domestic public default

Fiscal Crisis Episodes (1970-2015)

7

Source: Authors’ calculations. AM = advanced markets, EM = emerging markets, LIDC = low-income and developing countries, SDS = small developing states.

Total AM EM LIDC SDSWith start date within sample period 436 25 154 171 86

Average per country 2.3 0.7 2.2 3.4 2.6

With start and end date within sample period 400 23 143 154 80Average number of crises per country 2.1 0.7 2.0 3.1 2.4Average probability of starting a crisis 6.7% 1.6% 6.4% 13.0% 6.7%Average probability of being in a crisis 29.3% 6.0% 29.9% 50.4% 20.6%

Dynamics of Fiscal Crises

8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1999 2000 - 2004 2005 - 2009 2010 - 2015

By Criteria

Credit event Exceptional financing Implicit default Market confidence

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1999 2000 - 2004 2005 - 2009 2010 - 2015

By Country Groups

Advanced Emerging Low Income Small Developing States

Overlap between Fiscal, Banking, and Currency Crises

9

Fiscal crises 335

Currency crises 122

Banking crises 82

23

14

47

28

Source: Laeven and Valencia (2012), authors’ calculations.

PresenterPresentation Notes

II. Empirical Analysis

10

Event Study Empirical regularities during the 11-year time window around fiscal

crises (Gourinchas & Obstfeld 2012; Catao & Milesi-Ferretti 2014) Does not necessarily imply causality

𝑦𝑦𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 = 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 + � 𝛽𝛽𝑗𝑗

5

𝑗𝑗=−5

𝐹𝐹𝑖𝑖+𝑗𝑗 + 𝜀𝜀𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖

where: y = variable of interest (e.g., real GDP p.c. growth, public debt-to-GDP ratio) F = dummy variables taking the value of 1 in period t+j, where t is the fiscal crisis year β = conditional effect of a crisis over the event window relative to tranquil times

11

What Happens Around Fiscal Crises?

12

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

Public debt (% of GDP)

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

Real expenditure growth (%)

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

Primary balance (% of GDP)

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

Real GDPpc growth (%)

Note: Reported are coefficient estimates with 95% confidence intervals.

Fiscal Crises and Growth: By Country Groups

13

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

AM

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

EM

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

LIDC

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

SDS

Note: Reported are coefficient estimates with 95% confidence intervals. AM = advanced markets, EM = emerging markets, LIDC = low-income and developing countries, SDS = small developing states.

Recessions are common at time of Crisis

14

Source: Authors’ calculations.

0

20

40

60

t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2

Negative growth around fiscal crises (percent of countries with negative GDPpc real growth)

AMEMLIDC

Fiscal Crises and Growth: By Criteria

15

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

1. Credit event

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

2. Official financing

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

3. Implicit default


-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

4. Market confidence

Event Study – Twin Crises Empirical specification:

𝑦𝑦𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 = 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 + � 𝛽𝛽𝑗𝑗

5

𝑗𝑗=−5

𝐹𝐹𝑖𝑖+𝑗𝑗 + � 𝛾𝛾𝑗𝑗

5

𝑗𝑗=−5

𝐹𝐹𝐵𝐵𝑖𝑖+𝑗𝑗 + � 𝛿𝛿𝑗𝑗

5

𝑗𝑗=−5

𝐹𝐹𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖+𝑗𝑗 + 𝜀𝜀𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖

where: y = macro variable of interest (e.g., growth, public debt ratio) F = fiscal crisis dummy FB = twin fiscal-banking crisis dummy FC = twin fiscal-currency crisis dummy β = effect of a fiscal crisis γ = additional effect of a twin fiscal-banking crisis δ = additional effect of a twin fiscal-currency crisis

16

Twin Fiscal-Currency Crises

17

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5

Public debt (% of GDP)


Real GDP p.c. growth (%)

III. Concluding Remarks

18

Conclusions A new IMF database on fiscal crises Updated annually (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2017/04/03/Fiscal-Crises-44795) Large sample (including LIDCs, over 4½ decades) … … but some challenges remain (variability of quality/available data across criteria,

time, and country groups)

Helps understanding implications of fiscal crises Crises are disruptive: economic recession, indebtedness rises … … but effects can vary across country groups and crisis criteria Procyclical fiscal policy (expenditures) play a role Twin crises can be even more disruptive

Can be used to conduct further research

19

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2017/04/03/Fiscal-Crises-44795

Predicting Fiscal Crises - Preliminary Signaling and Logit approaches Advanced and Emerging Economies Macro imbalances: external (current account), financial (credit growth), and

economic activity (large output gap) Strong expenditure growth increases probability of crisis - evidence of destabilizing

role of procyclical fiscal policy Able to predict a large share of crises (out of sample)

Low Income Countries Very different factors; able to predict large share of crises External factors very relevant: world growth; food prices; dependence on external

aid Some role for domestic economic activity and traditional fiscal indicators

20

Thank you!

21

Background Slides

22

Types of Fiscal Crises per Country Groups

23

AM EM LIDC SDSCredit event 0 85 141 71Official financing 11 40 29 6Implicit default 13 18 9 7Market confidence 7 25 4 3Source: Authors’ calculations.

LIDCs top ten (PPT)

Decline in Real GDP p.c. growth rate (5 years before versus 5 years since start of crisis)

Sudan2002Sudan, 200221.69754-21.69754

Moldova1991Moldova, 199121.19661-21.19661

C.A.R.2013C.A.R., 201312.8511-12.8511

Eritrea2000Eritrea, 200010.9796-10.9796

Tajikistan1991Tajikistan, 199110.77192-10.77192

Nicaragua1976Nicaragua, 19769.830752-9.830752

Uzbekistan1991Uzbekistan, 19918.224093-8.224093

Zimbabwe2000Zimbabwe, 20008.147759-8.147759

Chad2005Chad, 20058.025736-8.025736

Niger1983Niger, 19837.737927-7.737927

Myanmar1985Myanmar, 19857.592935-7.592935

Congo, DR1975Congo, DR, 19757.316471-7.316471

Papua New Guinea1997Papua New Guinea, 19977.278628-7.278628

Liberia1973Liberia, 19737.086921-7.086921

Myanmar2007Myanmar, 20076.914485-6.914485

Chad2008Chad, 20086.593786-6.593786

Sierra Leone1975Sierra Leone, 19755.979975-5.979975

Malawi1979Malawi, 19795.934911-5.934911

Bangladesh2012Bangladesh, 20125.722627-5.722627

Sierra2013Sierra, 20135.55219-5.55219

Decline in Real GDP p.c. growth rate (3 years before versus 3 years since start of crisis)

Moldova1991Moldova, 199123.52341-23.52341

C.A.R.2013C.A.R., 201313.46517-13.46517

Chad2005Chad, 200512.25709-12.25709

Sudan2002Sudan, 200211.199-11.199

Ghana1981Ghana, 19819.437407-9.437407

Eritrea2000Eritrea, 20009.370483-9.370483

Uzbekistan1991Uzbekistan, 19919.080335-9.080335

Mozambique1999Mozambique, 19998.75704-8.75704

Liberia1973Liberia, 19738.694738-8.694738

Malawi1979Malawi, 19797.786917-7.786917

Niger1983Niger, 19837.61014-7.61014

Congo1982Congo, 19827.545967-7.545967


Congo, DR1975Congo, DR, 19756.956111-6.956111

Madagascar1980Madagascar, 19806.803192-6.803192

Guinea-Bissau1998Guinea-Bissau, 19986.770351-6.770351

Myanmar2007Myanmar, 20076.520125-6.520125

Afghanistan2014Afghanistan, 20146.485674-6.485674

Myanmar1985Myanmar, 19856.383818-6.383818

Zimbabwe1983Zimbabwe, 19836.37795-6.37795

Sudan, 2002Moldova, 1991C.A.R., 2013Eritrea, 2000Tajikistan, 1991Nicaragua, 1976Uzbekistan, 1991Zimbabwe, 2000Chad, 2005Niger, 198321.6975421.1966112.85110000000000110.979610.771929.83075200000000048.22409299999999998.14775900000000068.02573600000000027.737927

Moldova, 1991C.A.R., 2013Chad, 2005Sudan, 2002Ghana, 1981Eritrea, 2000Uzbekistan, 1991Mozambique, 1999Liberia, 1973Malawi, 197923.52340999999999813.46517000000000112.2570911.1999.43740700000000039.37048300000000019.08033499999999988.75703999999999998.69473799999999927.7869169999999999

Text-->

F_1.1 (alt_spreads)

TrimmedDecline in Real GDP p.c. growth rate

Latvia2008Latvia, 200817.94582-17.94582

Angola2009Angola, 200915.34178-15.34178

Armenia2009Armenia, 200913.87583-13.87583

C.A.R.2013C.A.R., 201313.46517-13.46517

Ukraine2008Ukraine, 200810.77059-10.77059

Romania2009Romania, 200910.6629-10.6629

Georgia2008Georgia, 20088.918159-8.918159

Iceland2008Iceland, 20087.848809-7.848809


Greece2010Greece, 20106.557755-6.557755

Full list, stata output

Latvia2008-17.9458220082011

Angola2009-15.3417820092012

Antigua & Barbuda2009-13.9790620092014

Armenia2009-13.8758320092013

C.A.R.2013-13.4651720132013

Ukraine2008-10.7705920082015

Romania2009-10.662920092011

Georgia2008-8.91815920082013

Iceland2008-7.84880920082011

Sierra Leone2013-7.37737220132015

Greece2010-6.55775520102015

Myanmar2007-6.52012520072010

Afghanistan2014-6.48567420142014

Lebanon2011-6.32811720112012

Belarus2013-5.72783720132013

Latvia, 2008Angola, 2009Armenia, 2009C.A.R., 2013Ukraine, 2008Romania, 2009Georgia, 2008Iceland, 2008Sierra Leone, 2013Greece, 201017.94582000000000115.3417813.87583000000000113.46517000000000110.7705910.66298.91815899999999937.84880900000000017.37737200000000036.5577550000000002

F_1.1

Decline in Real GDP p.c. growth rate

Latvia2008Latvia, 200817.94582-17.94582

Angola2009Angola, 200915.34178-15.34178

Armenia2009Armenia, 200913.87583-13.87583

C.A.R.2013C.A.R., 201313.46517-13.46517

Ukraine2008Ukraine, 200810.77059-10.77059

Romania2009Romania, 200910.6629-10.6629

Venezuela2008Venezuela, 20089.284505-9.284505

Georgia2008Georgia, 20088.918159-8.918159

Iceland2008Iceland, 20087.848809-7.848809

Greece2010Greece, 20106.557755-6.557755

Myanmar2007Myanmar, 20076.520125-6.520125

Afghanistan2014Afghanistan, 20146.485674-6.485674

Antigua & Barbuda2009Antigua & Barbuda, 200913.97906-13.97906


Lithuania2009Lithuania, 20098.946554-8.946554

Latvia, 2008Angola, 2009Armenia, 2009C.A.R., 2013Ukraine, 2008Romania, 2009Venezuela, 2008Georgia, 2008Iceland, 2008Greece, 201017.94582000000000115.3417813.87583000000000113.46517000000000110.7705910.66299.28450499999999938.91815899999999937.84880900000000016.5577550000000002

T_2.1

CriterionThresholdsSourcesCriterionThresholdsSources

AMsEMsLIDCsSDSsAMsEMsLIDCsSDSs

(1)Credit eventAny operation that makes creditors incur material economic losses on the sovereign debt they hold (e.g. default, restructuring, or rescheduling) ▪ BoC (2016)▪ For gaps: authors' research based on rating agency reports (esp. Moody's and S&P), WB IDS and WDI data, and Cruces and Trebesch (2013)(1)Credit eventAny operation that makes creditors incur material economic losses on the sovereign debt they hold (i.e.–most obviously, but not confined to–default, restructuring, rescheduling, or relief) 1/ ▪ BoC (2016)▪ For gaps: authors' research based on rating agency reports (esp. Moody's and S&P), WB IDS and WDI data, and Cruces and Trebesch (2013)

(i) of substantial size (in percent of GDP p.a.)>0.2(i) of substantial size (in pct. of GDP p.a.) 2/>0.2

(ii) if (i) holds and the defaulted nominal amount grows by a substantial amount (in percent p.a) ≥ 10(ii) if (i) holds and the defaulted nominal amount grows by a substantial amount (in pct. p.a) 3/≥ 10

(2)Exceptionally large official financingHigh-access IMF financial arrangement with fiscal adjustment objective in place (in percent of quota)≥ 100 ▪ IMF Strategy, Policy, and Review Department (SPR) as well as Finance Department (FIN)(2)Exceptionally large official financingHigh-access IMF financial arrangement with fiscal adjustment objective in place (in pct. of quota) 4/≥ 100 ▪ IMF Strategy, Policy, and Review Department (SPR) as well as Finance Department (FIN)

(3)Implicit domestic public default(a) High inflation rate (in percent of growth of annual average CPI p.a.)≥ 35≥ 100≥ 35▪ IMF WEO(3)Implicit domestic public default(a) High inflation rate (in pct. of growth of annual average CPI p.a.) 5/≥ 35≥ 100≥ 35▪ IMF WEO

(b) Steep increase in domestic arrears (in first difference of the ratio of 'other account payables (OAP)' to GDP in percentage points) ≥ 1▪ OECD and Eurostat(b) Steep increase in domestic arrears (in first difference of the ratio of 'other account payables (OAP)' to GDP in pct. ppts.) 6/≥ 1▪ OECD and Eurostat

(c) Steep increase in central bank financing (in first difference of the ratio of 'net claims from the central bank on the government' to the overall balance in pct. ppts.) 7/≥ 50 when deficit ≤ 5 pct. of GDP▪ IMF IFS Monetary Survey(c) Steep increase in central bank financing (in first difference of the ratio of 'net claims from the central bank on the government' to the overall balance in pct. ppts.) 7/≥ 50 when deficit ≤ 5 pct. of GDP▪ IMF IFS Monetary Survey

(4)Loss of market confidence(a) Loss of market access when market access is lost (after maintaining market access for a 1/4 of the sample time and 2 consecutive years before the loss year)▪ Guscina, Sheheryar and Papaioannou (2016)▪ For gaps: authors' research based on Gelos, Sahay, and Sandleris (2004) and rating agencies' reports (esp. Moody's and S&P's)(4)Loss of market confidence(a) Loss of market access 8/when market access is lost (after having had market access for two consecutive years)▪ Guscina, Sheheryar and Papaioannou (2016)▪ For gaps: authors' research based on Gelos, Sahay, and Sandleris (2004) and rating agencies' reports (esp. Moody's and S&P's)

▪ For gaps: authors' research based on Gelos, Sahay and Sandleris (2004) and rating agencies' reports (esp. Moody's and S&P's)▪ For gaps: authors' research based on Gelos, Sahay and Sandleris (2004) and rating agencies' reports (esp. Moody's and S&P's)

(b) High price of market access (in basis points, sovereign spreads or CDS spreads)≥ 1,000 bps▪ Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, IMF IFS(b) High price of market access (in bps. sovereign spreads or CDS spreads) 9/≥ 1,000 bps▪ Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, IMF IFS

Note: 1/ Following BoC (2016) as laid out in Beers and Chambers 2006, we consider that a default has occurred 'when debt service is not paid on the due date (or within a specified grace period), payments are not made within the time frame specified under a guarantee, or, absent an outright payment default, in any of the following circumstances where creditors incur material economic losses on the sovereign debt they hold: (i) agreements between governments and creditors that reduce interest rates and/or extend maturities on outstanding debt; (ii) government exchange offers to creditors where existing debt is swapped for new debt on less-economic terms; (iii) government purchases of debt at substantial discounts to par; (iv) government redenomination of foreign currency debt into new local currency obligations on less-economic terms; (v) swaps of sovereign debt for equity (usually relating to privatization programs) on less-economic terms; (vi) conversion of central bank notes into new currency of less-than-equivalent face value.' This is also in line with much of the literature on sovereign defaults (Cruces and Trebesch 2011), and the practice of credit-rating agencies. 2/ This threshold aims at excluding technical defaults of minor amounts (e.g. owing to delays caused by administrative procedures and debt management capacity issues). 3/ This approach is to identify intensifications of debt default series, thereby dealing with the practical technicalities of accounting for defaulted amounts, which make identifying duration a common problem (see e.g. Reinhart and Rogoff (2011)). The threshold roughly accounts for the accumulation of late interest and penalty fee on the defaulted amount in the previous year. 4/ The threshold is consistent with IMF access rules and also used by Baldacci et al. (2011). 5/ The threshold is consistent with Fisher et al. (2002) for EMs and LIDCs, and with Baldacci et al. (2011) for AMs and SDSs, roughly confirmed by the 95 percentile of the inflation distribution. Note that most SDSs do not have independent monetary policy and inflation patterns ressembling AMs. 6/ The threshold captures extreme recourse to domestic arrears buildups in line with evidence from Checherita-Westphal et al. (2015). It is also consistent with th 99 percentile of the distribution of the increase of OAPs-to-GDP ratio. 7/ The threshold captures extreme recourse to monetization of substantial fiscal deficits. It is consistent with the 95 percentile of the distribution of the increase of the net claims-to-deficit ratio in severe deficit situations. 8/ Following IMF(2015), market access is defined as ‘the ability to tap international capital on a sustained basis through the contracting of loans and/or issuance of securities across a range of maturities, regardless of the currency denomination of the instruments, and at reasonable interest rates’. Against this backdrop, Guscina et al. (2016) compile an indicator of the loss of market access (LMA), which equals 1 when sovereigns default or stop issuing bonds controlling for financing needs and previous pattern of issuance. 9/ The threshold is consistent with Pescatori and Sy (2007). It is also used by Baldacci et al. (2011) and roughly consistent with the 95 percentile of the spreads distribution.P21

T_2.2

18835705033

Formulae, linksNumber of Identified Fiscal Crises Episodes

TotalAMEMLIDCSDS

With start date within sample period4362515417186

Average per country2.30.72.23.42.6

With start and end date within sample period4002314315480


Memorandum items:

Ongoing at sample period start3212290

Ongoing at sample period end36211176

Number of countries with no fiscal crisis3720917

values onlyNumber of Identified Fiscal Crises Episodes

TotalAMEMLIDCSDS

With start date within sample period4362515417186


With start and end date within sample period4002314315480


Memorandum items:

Ongoing at sample period start3212290

Ongoing at sample period end36211176

Number of countries with no fiscal crisis3720917

Source: Authors' calculations.

T_2.3

Fiscal Crises Database (this paper)Bruns and Poghosyan's (2016) update of Baldacci et al. (2011)Laeven and Valencia's (2012)debt crisesReinhart and Rogoff's (2011b)externaldebt crisesReinhart and Rogoff's (2011b)domestic debt crises

Number of events436201677526

Number of common events141676522Need to check, our start dates may be differing quite a bit

Number of countries188801576969

Note: We consider events to overlap when the start date is within one year of our start date, or

the event falls within our crisis period.

T_2.4

AMEMLIDCSDS

Credit event08514171

Official financing1140296

Implicit default131897

Market confidence72543

Source: Authors' calculations.

F. 2.1, 2.2

*Note, the numbers don't necessarily add up to the sameCrisis Episodes per Decade1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015

because of confluent startsAdvanced738044

Emerging20404614229

*Also, the start of an episode based on a criterionLow Income263736222526

doesn't mean the start of a full fiscal crisis episodeSmall Developing States7142717129

RR162932132011

HIPC213027171922211590.2796208531

Fragile131819151116147340.231292517

AMCredit event001004

AMExceptional financing223024

AMImplicit default416020

AMMarket confidence002024

EMCredit event1641561898

EMExceptional financing822264117

EMImplicit default31319041

EMMarket confidence07249124

LIDCCredit event213948312723

LIDCExceptional financing726263916

LIDCImplicit default2129100

LIDCMarket confidence028001

SDSCredit event21225151312

SDSExceptional financing232044

SDSImplicit default433010

SDSMarket confidence013010

TotalCredit event3992130644947

TotalExceptional financing19535772631

TotalImplicit default132937171

TotalMarket confidence010379159

505050

Crisis Episodes per Decade

Advanced1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015738044Emerging1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 201520404614229Low Income1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015263736222526Small Developing States1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20157142717129

Advanced1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015738044Emerging1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 201520404614229Low Income1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015263736222526Small Developing States1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20157142717129


RR1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015162932132011HIPC1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015213027171922Fragile1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015131819151116

AMs - Number of episodes based on individual criteria

Credit event1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015001004Exceptional financing1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015223024Implicit default1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015416020Market confidence1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015002024

EMs - Number of episodes based on individual criteria


LIDCs - Number of episodes based on individual criteria


LIDCs - Number of episodes based on individual criteria


RR Countries - Number of episodes based on individual criteria

1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20151#REF!1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20151#REF!1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20151#REF!1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 20151#REF!

Episodes triggered per criterion



Market confidence1970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19992000 - 20042005 - 20092010 - 2015010379159

F. 2.3

idcountrycodeifscodeyeard_amd_nsemd_nslidcd_sdsConfluence_SYat least 2 crit?Confluence_CYat least 2 crit?Confluence_DYat least 2 crit?ngdpngdp_gngdpdngdpd_gngdp_rngdp_r_gngdprpcngdprpc_gUsing DY ConfluenceCrisis, at least two criteriaCrisis, only one criterionNo crisis

1111970United StatesUSA111197010000000001066.32138547481066.32138547484710.023732504822953.2845801729Real Growth1.15635203962.73613601034.2687939003

1111971United StatesUSA111197110000000001157.52549176130.08553153631157.52549176138.55315362974867.4951277583.343324878923424.66571298112.0536543742Real per capita Growth-0.79906522690.78054889742.486576304

1111972United StatesUSA111197210000000001272.216514370.09908293461272.216514379.90829346095131.72455983495.428447797924435.62775818394.3158013762

1111973United StatesUSA111197310000000001421.06100045170.11699619081421.061000451711.69961908225427.97482108255.772918203125601.31094640594.770424561Using CY confluenceCrisis, at least two criteriaOnly one criterionNo crisis

1111974United StatesUSA111197410000000001539.46993012020.08332431161539.46993088998.33243121875395.8881731469-0.591134796925216.6314862895-1.5025771958Real Growth2.598674381.84143440494.2962196776

1111975United StatesUSA111197510000000001677.08377280770.08939040641677.08377448478.9390406945376.669093768-0.356180090524883.8090013366-1.3198530705Real per capita Growth0.49643647230.24462036662.5313684097





1111980United StatesUSA111198010000000002862.4750.08750451152862.4758.75045115216450.4-0.244347530228338.220213856-1.3921647994


1111982United StatesUSA1111982100000000033450.041747769433454.17477693526491.275-1.911148048827964.225171906-2.8459299125

1111983United StatesUSA111198310000000003638.1250.08763079223638.1258.763079222767924.63275704728995.09704520673.6863952674


















1112001United StatesUSA1112001100000000010621.8250.032774253110621.8253.277425314212682.250.976141851144465.4356889268-0.0576375314








1112009United StatesUSA1112009100000000014418.725-0.020372216714418.725-2.03722167414418.75-2.775553551446909.5034953375-3.615585674






1112015United StatesUSA11120151000000000179470.0345240034179473.452400338416348.8752.425970999250835.9223778961.6390935844

1121970United KingdomGBR1121970100000000053.4669663994128.3206168818660.124368553411890.411083591

1121971United KingdomGBR1121971100000000059.64091519340.1154722104145.189280233413.1457156001673.23839434641.986599255812088.8100086361.6685623706



1121974United KingdomGBR1121974100000000086.61090903070.1293481167202.58659709977.7248654477735.3851300772-1.698507116613119.4548005473-1.8618201856


1121976United KingdomGBR11219761000000000129.46185385250.1841481185233.834863378-3.7354127596750.67684783792.795247018613367.51532530062.7256820871





1121981United KingdomGBR11219811000000000269.0850.1069038285540.8281143917-4.2814285028804.618-0.846837299314277.161665809-0.8943404558



























1122008United KingdomGBR112200810000000001519.5970.02379885642787.6137818888-6.14307509951659.039-0.466876767227021.0593178931-1.1347755061

1122009United KingdomGBR112200910000000001485.727-0.02228880422316.2601524728-16.90885704751589.493-4.191944854825723.2813309166-4.8028390438







1221970AustriaAUT1221970100000000028.463679442115.0641833934112.242282735315124.6257926507

1221971AustriaAUT1221971100000000032.07579773580.126902718317.680983938317.3710082826117.98138072825.113133707715834.03483771114.6904237816

1221972AustriaAUT1221972100000000036.65007777970.142608457721.818091042423.3986248646125.30550518166.207864671716749.63311847165.7824697883

1221973AustriaAUT1221973100000000041.50839463190.132559523729.385660389334.6848371481131.42955325174.887293707717474.91189551014.3301173937

1221974AustriaAUT1221974100000000047.23676217790.138005037234.846655050918.5838759083136.61282863293.943767024118164.0817083433.9437670241

1221975AustriaAUT1221975100000000050.13626592750.061382355939.69981716613.9271964785136.1178612572-0.362313979317978.8896501455-1.0195508981

1221976AustriaAUT1221976100000000055.3653578070.104297593442.50499742067.0659777672142.3479659564.576992792318837.81788831964.7774264979

1221977AustriaAUT1221977100000000061.24761932280.106244441451.036583176720.0719592374149.00544714574.676906441919711.28897255924.636795458

1221978AustriaAUT1221978100000000064.67041225890.055884505861.364996572620.2372744276148.4653889064-0.36244194419655.6871238847-0.2820812416

1221979AustriaAUT1221979100000000070.56960975010.091219419972.736513564618.5309502601156.56368086195.454666582720763.25888042495.6348666397

1221980AustriaAUT1221980100000000075.81063015660.074267385480.742571836911.0069315669160.18657242292.314005100721243.72174998812.3140051007

1221981AustriaAUT1221981100000000080.70443268130.064552985769.9647434208-13.3483838462160.0272351075-0.099469832621179.9491292249-0.3001951424

1221982AustriaAUT1221982100000000086.6302646340.073426350469.9539965305-0.0153604369163.08025188241.907810737921556.95010765061.7799900091

1221983AustriaAUT1221983100000000092.31638643330.065636666670.87371367911.3147456817167.6537476992.80444490622226.94095906013.1080039062

1221984AustriaAUT1221984100000000096.91422562830.049805233666.8573659746-5.6669073709168.20966692090.331587709522298.28442666080.3209774468

1221985AustriaAUT12219851000000000102.14315980860.053954248268.47037785912.4126165622171.98322437882.243365394522783.13247289792.1743737633

1221986AustriaAUT12219861000000000107.36179831470.051091414497.157413723641.8970024139176.00852395562.340518728723292.02825876082.2336515247

1221987AustriaAUT12219871000000000111.47118983640.0382761055121.498633996125.0533843375178.96642610861.680544831823651.88655322551.5449847925

1221988AustriaAUT12219881000000000119.35721542140.0707449664133.2929024619.7073259813180.6859178830.960790139123848.83358406590.832690578

1221989AustriaAUT12219891000000000127.67292593090.0696707818132.9654843764-0.2456380486187.70931509643.887075039324717.13194059253.6408420289

1221990AustriaAUT12219901000000000137.21734191610.0747567733166.493448535825.2155394437195.86648953844.345641790725620.87818365373.656355621

1221991AustriaAUT12219911000000000147.10911859530.0720883858174.04517586254.5357504413202.60748294853.44162670526275.46498443292.5548960347

1221992AustriaAUT12219921000000000155.41409547770.056454535195.068947590912.079491215206.84912264892.093525687626522.8586914680.9415388355

1221993AustriaAUT12219931000000000160.54030300690.0329841866189.9578088992-2.620170332207.93882414050.526809820526379.8064244268-0.5393546326

1221994AustriaAUT12219941000000000168.5475938450.0498771379203.51432534017.1365933938212.93376077442.402118341526856.07486402751.8054281064

1221995AustriaAUT12219951000000000176.18330.0453029674240.746953973618.2948441449218.61482.667984261827521.21860640782.4766975284

1221996AustriaAUT12219961000000000182.13280.0337688078236.828490707-1.6276273498223.85792.39832801828147.25075756622.2747254041

1221997AustriaAUT12219971000000000188.30970.0339142648212.6100052561-10.2261705838228.7942.205014877728724.92153170122.0523168643

1221998AustriaAUT12219981000000000195.82820.0399262492217.99396741392.5323183409236.9393.559970978329724.75567989363.480720207

1221999AustriaAUT12219991000000000203.41830.0387589734217.0097416873-0.451492185245.44513.589995737330747.89852803013.442056376

1222000AustriaAUT12220001000000000213.19610.0480674551196.9978156488-9.2216717475253.71263.368370360631705.35602709253.1138957291

1222001AustriaAUT12220011000000000220.09570.0323626933197.12284448630.0634671187257.13911.350543883132058.63431784461.1142542933

1222002AustriaAUT12220021000000000226.30260.0282009144213.72451290658.4219911007261.39691.655835304732416.89815963091.1175268361

1222003AustriaAUT12220031000000000230.99920.0207536281261.22024783822.2228766769263.37350.756168110632514.04268977690.2996725031

1222004AustriaAUT12220041000000000241.5050.0454798112300.264172770814.9467452297270.49972.705739187933220.31046594452.1721930518

1222005AustriaAUT12220051000000000253.00920.0476354527315.1874759464.9700578785276.29022.140667808533688.17518960181.4083695098

1222006AustriaAUT12220061000000000266.4780.0532344278334.6026791326.1598904359285.54833.350860797834593.88439964622.6885077774

1222007AustriaAUT12220071000000000282.34690.059550507386.994721518615.6579865178295.88943.62148890435722.49185077873.2624478885

1222008AustriaAUT12220081000000000291.93040.0339422887429.638213513311.0191404749300.46761.547267323536166.05681271061.2416965865

1222009AustriaAUT12220091000000000286.1884-0.0196690718398.6024593838-7.2236949958289.0526-3.79907850334679.376124775-4.1107071629

1222010AustriaAUT12220101000000000294.62750.0294879177390.9394570003-1.9224674116294.62751.928680108735277.97068825141.7260822724

1222011AustriaAUT12220111000000000308.63030.0475271317429.43057454339.8458001242302.90062.807986355736166.37214633682.5182895749

1222012AustriaAUT12220121000000000317.05580.0272996527407.5985461019-5.083948311305.19450.757311144336297.67723980450.3630585145

1222013AustriaAUT12220131000000000322.87830.0183642753428.83268555575.2095719322306.1750.32127053436225.5824134218-0.1986210465

1222014AustriaAUT12220141000000000329.29560.0198752905437.58171393392.040196252307.25720.353457989736114.765274219-0.3059085095

1222015AustriaAUT12220151000000000337.16288639260.0238912588374.1243678287-14.501827678309.9487730720.87636223.80957618970.3019382824

1241970BelgiumBEL1241970100000000032.351526962126.10114725154.612210086416008.2260361725

1241971BelgiumBEL1241971100000000035.44356063680.095576127829.169265986411.7547275108160.77478583373.985827344316629.07481280753.8783109086

1241972BelgiumBEL1241972100000000039.67835418740.119479913336.366206255524.6730249314169.28878247355.295604404417437.55264873264.8618329343

1241973BelgiumBEL1241973100000000045.083772310.136230905646.827915404928.7676670913180.09228825116.381702094918493.22373206426.0540094393

1241974BelgiumBEL1241974100000000052.87835763410.172891151854.850788760717.132672438188.31396599164.565258079819278.11138256474.2441905309

1241975BelgiumBEL1241975100000000058.52067689640.106703753964.369836526717.3544409863184.6118234295-1.96594158218860.5050752354-2.1662200152

1241976BelgiumBEL1241976100000000066.51238957970.136562205169.55394380928.0536281621195.04746066995.652745878719886.01541336495.4373429239

1241977BelgiumBEL1241977100000000071.93384014690.081510386381.001436207816.4584375403196.26875970990.626154801419990.15874882310.5237013715

1241978BelgiumBEL1241978100000000077.25036271750.073908504899.10743865822.35269311201.84651487612.841896578220537.3401296412.7372538042

1241979BelgiumBEL1241979100000000082.62064263860.0695178603113.732286468914.7565591533206.57188920752.341073034821082.47900555692.6543791575

1241980BelgiumBEL1241980100000000089.85328569450.0875403873124.1371780849.1485821117215.75205560144.444054042921892.40461053953.8417000428

1241981BelgiumBEL1241981100000000094.20718101550.048455605102.8129025201-17.1779928407215.1494954519-0.279283619221812.9714489121-0.3628343393

1241982BelgiumBEL12419821000000000101.94201141270.082104467190.4623578542-12.0126407904216.42960686110.594986944521962.3169328630.6846636383

1241983BelgiumBEL12419831000000000107.99960490270.059421953885.4997378486-5.4858397717217.10452685380.311842729122023.1438892640.276960562

1241984BelgiumBEL12419841000000000116.68195202350.080392397181.6900873841-4.4557451992222.4591552562.46638265922577.75661905632.5183176961

1241985BelgiumBEL12419851000000000124.09721179640.063551043284.95007015713.9906711785226.13371966071.651792842822939.75652797291.6033475558

1241986BelgiumBEL12419861000000000129.89324589010.0467055948117.799499085538.6691015884230.25559946021.822762127523355.11225752791.8106370442

1241987BelgiumBEL12419871000000000135.128504780.0403043196146.214514789724.121508092235.56681195642.306659429223879.65108864592.2459272528

1241988BelgiumBEL12419881000000000144.58026397730.06994645158.9675960798.7221718771246.69312458464.723208900224979.77104491764.6069348006

1241989BelgiumBEL12419891000000000156.77279926130.0843305646160.70632999681.0937662522255.25132059353.469166813325711.25066062992.928287911

1241990BelgiumBEL12419901000000000166.23778908940.0603739288201.234680603625.2188887691263.25958179353.137402455526464.14867087522.9282823313

1241991BelgiumBEL12419911000000000174.15581283820.047630709206.53470543322.6337531949268.0853255231.833074297526843.49620610491.4334394049

1241992BelgiumBEL12419921000000000182.8768341110.0500759701230.030123189711.3760143639272.18878645331.530654810127159.13669234411.1758546048

1241993BelgiumBEL12419931000000000188.3492266170.0299239241219.9321775578-4.3898362058269.5706757603-0.961873090826774.1492656638-1.4175245371

1241994BelgiumBEL12419941000000000198.49915603170.0538888829239.93056748759.0929804596278.26964455523.226971468727549.72877983262.8967475548

1241995BelgiumBEL12419951000000000211.61580.0660790919289.904087380820.8283256346284.90572.384757221928123.35214174442.082137964

1241996BelgiumBEL12419961000000000215.94240.0204455433281.4673752244-2.9101735793289.44541.593404414228536.33627055071.4684740522

1241997BelgiumBEL12419971000000000225.96870.046430437255.1700615992-9.3429348976300.18513.710440725629516.06975105573.4332840461

1241998BelgiumBEL12419981000000000234.48960.0377083198260.9711674512.2734273039306.11461.975281251530034.01403260361.7547874291

1241999BelgiumBEL12419991000000000244.2260.0415216709260.5440177866-0.1636769566317.02243.563306029831038.779872473.3454264181

1242000BelgiumBEL12420001000000000258.2220.0573075758238.60272281-8.4213389979328.54193.633654908932087.03707411363.3772500271

1242001BelgiumBEL12420011000000000265.78840.0293019185238.0462927693-0.2332035587331.20810.811525105332270.75318212830.5725555388

1242002BelgiumBEL12420021000000000275.06510.0349025766259.77675252119.1286696797337.10531.780512010432697.79746792471.3233167611

1242003BelgiumBEL12420031000000000282.63650.0275258475319.613126703823.0337678803339.71590.774416777232804.26974373120.3256252226

1242004BelgiumBEL12420041000000000298.71080.0568726969371.388382268316.1993520412352.0643.6348313433863.96145365793.2303468975

1242005BelgiumBEL12420051000000000311.48080.0427503793388.0287640044.4805875817359.43722.09427831334409.5627623291.6111561827

1242006BelgiumBEL12420061000000000326.66210.0487391197410.17274908585.7067895826368.42072.499323943135049.69184832211.8603232201

1242007BelgiumBEL12420071000000000344.71250.055257099472.475235044115.1893284225380.9383.397556109135990.05870263162.6829532721

1242008BelgiumBEL12420081000000000354.06590.0271339159521.083932135710.2880941658383.78420.747155705135979.0963906362-0.0304592779

1242009BelgiumBEL12420091000000000348.7811-0.014926035485.7814091926-6.7748247002375.0147-2.285008085334875.0962514926-3.0684487658

1242010BelgiumBEL12420101000000000365.10050.046789806484.44965667-0.2741464571385.12122.694961024235528.09734033651.8723993882

1242011BelgiumBEL12420111000000000379.10630.0383614922527.49142330488.8846727502392.04081.796733080435638.00572294080.3093562302

1242012BelgiumBEL12420121000000000387.41880.0219265678498.0553568569-5.5803876892392.63360.151208751735388.8155315304-0.6992259706

1242013BelgiumBEL12420131000000000392.6990.0136291786521.56545294324.7203781192392.6990.016656750735182.9058842776-0.5818495029

1242014BelgiumBEL12420141000000000400.64290.0202289794532.39097897892.0755834142397.9941.348360958435522.51733132260.9652740117

1242015BelgiumBEL12420151000000000409.7660.0227711511454.6865977686-14.5953602293403.4491.370623677735587.10668299210.1818265048

1281970DenmarkDNK12819701000000000126.60343146616.8804575142841.2582452546170656.080167191

1281971DenmarkDNK12819711000000000139.93646072060.105313332318.843265861311.6276963792864.00259145762.7036104943174209.8479145162.0824149622

1281972DenmarkDNK12819721000000000160.86396671740.149550059323.148253729522.8462937363909.49109510985.2648573166182279.2621234454.632008067

1281973DenmarkDNK12819731000000000184.48305511410.146826470130.495587262531.7403360912942.34405011153.6122349277188202.1358821253.2493404294

1281974DenmarkDNK12819741000000000206.64855551350.120149248333.905159321311.1805423828933.6393911628-0.9237240844185403.090680739-1.4872547478

1281975DenmarkDNK12819751000000000230.79696577380.116857387240.165496169418.464260229927.4618608196-0.6616612797183512.194953503-1.0198836062

1281976DenmarkDNK12819761000000000268.10555444240.161651122944.351438494710.421736875987.27110348316.4487010399194925.8726437266.2195745046

1281977DenmarkDNK12819771000000000298.0748643140.111781756849.652731565911.95292250061003.27628273671.6211534195197202.6903104481.1680428236

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1351984San MarinoSMR135198410000000000.27212284880.14371257490.334682784814.371257485

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1351986San MarinoSMR135198610000000000.33766028890.10747663550.415287015610.7476635514

1351987San MarinoSMR135198710000000000.36900428190.09282700420.45383686529.2827004219

1351988San MarinoSMR135198810000000000.41032136370.1119691120.50465257611.1969111969

1351989San MarinoSMR135198910000000000.45021371850.09722222220.55371602099.7222222222

1351990San MarinoSMR135199010000000000.49722970810.10443037970.611540795210.4430379747

1351991San MarinoSMR135199110000000000.54282097070.09169054440.66761330369.1690544413

1351992San MarinoSMR135199210000000000.57131550990.05249343830.70265862145.249343832

1351993San MarinoSMR135199310000000000.64825076560.13466334160.797280979413.4663341646

1351994San MarinoSMR135199410000000000.72091184040.11208791210.886646539711.2087912088

1351995San MarinoSMR135199510000000000.82919108910.15019762851.019818747315.0197628458

1351996San MarinoSMR135199610000000000.90470161790.09106529211.11268883949.1065292096

1351997San MarinoSMR135199710000000000.94174451880.04094488191.15824775254.094488189

1351998San MarinoSMR135199810000000001.03076690310.09452923021.24535034767.5202041157

1351999San MarinoSMR135199910000000001.14126376630.10719869141.21500281311.35740429668.9977851719

1352000San MarinoSMR135200010000000001.19628121720.04820748061.102476175-9.26143024621.3873020362.202567025

1352001San MarinoSMR135200110000000001.29745888740.08457682751.16087607585.29715762271.46414631395.5391166366

1352002San MarinoSMR135200210000000001.3320573150.02666629981.25346128437.97546012271.46876548720.3154857774

1352003San MarinoSMR135200310000000001.41805591770.06456073761.595314361827.27272727271.52605355393.9004229822

1352004San MarinoSMR135200410000000001.51225418270.06642775071.880191926417.85714285711.59572275774.565318411454480.1214655094

1352005San MarinoSMR135200510000000001.57534471920.04171953181.96249356064.37729962911.63443586192.426054523854892.89208651290.7576536357

1352006San MarinoSMR135200610000000001.66825390570.05897705152.09474037766.7387134191.69697189163.826153792556321.66915335412.6028453094

1352007San MarinoSMR135200710000000001.81751100370.08946905352.491145341918.9238231411.81751100377.103188490459831.81366428556.2323162003

1352008San MarinoSMR135200810000000001.87860529170.03361426032.764770717310.98391855361.84750743491.65041263160476.85472041111.0780904282

1352009San MarinoSMR135200910000000001.700800116-0.09464743682.3688699792-14.31947812381.6112821382-12.786162165352488.1796278758-13.2094751446

1352010San MarinoSMR135201010000000001.6153236491-0.05025662112.1433632307-9.51959164271.5363863704-4.648209402149784.0760303603-5.1518334541

1352011San MarinoSMR135201110000000001.4775045332-0.08531981562.055811178-4.0847977351.3909457719-9.466407754844799.8509361263-10.0116854458

1352012San MarinoSMR135201210000000001.4014632561-0.05146601951.8016840745-12.36140294211.2863863522-7.517145653841168.3154295958-8.106133013

1352013San MarinoSMR135201310000000001.4046532570.0022761931.86559836473.5474748911.2474718092-3.02510540139667.7629486772-3.6449207728

1352014San MarinoSMR135201410000000001.390514975-0.01006531821.8477742369-0.95541077371.2352272235-0.981552097639303.3989913453-0.9185392123

1352015San MarinoSMR135201510000000001.41091928780.01467392521.5655913148-15.27150430641.24720185750.969427629239709.68726081921.0337229855

1361970ItalyITA1361970100000000035.8260027944110.9901030892729.72579432713599.0603028515

1361971ItalyITA1361971100000000039.03184562450.0894836873121.84131585469.7767390636741.43757354191.604956177513727.77953143350.9465303169

1361972ItalyITA1361972100000000042.77779461450.0959716081142.024610464816.5652303314761.45230382662.699449151113994.70824888741.9444420479

1361973ItalyITA1361973100000000051.74646175120.2096570713171.935609668221.0604338963815.58358901957.10895284214882.90791740416.3466822796

1361974ItalyITA1361974100020202065.3653612020.2631851336194.673229024613.2244968918859.85581961655.428288552315605.36449268774.8542702763

1361975ItalyITA1361975100000202074.15506557920.1344703711220.177355940713.1009934154837.0561538012-2.651568471715109.3118728495-3.1787313912

1361976ItalyITA1361976100000000093.57887705260.2619350589218.4890860051-0.7667772775892.12471660966.578837340616016.5966742496.0048055731

1361977ItalyITA13619771000000000114.67176063260.2254021874251.633945253315.1700297046922.23813780533.375472132416489.14453848662.9503637623

1361978ItalyITA13619781000000000135.79812859360.1842333966309.949289636823.1746731646956.19380923613.681876734317035.33764550283.3124405317

1361979ItalyITA13619791000000000165.95282559550.2220553207386.853592263424.81189833241013.4455.987404458318017.7555015945.7669409115

1361980ItalyITA13619801000000000213.4960.2864860796483.592191870525.00651449071048.2053.429885193618588.99193594153.1704084024

1361981ItalyITA13619811000000000255.7460.1978959793438.5344446361-9.31730246931057.0540.844205093518715.7822553880.6820720558

1361982ItalyITA13619821000000000301.850.1802726142433.4275090744-1.1645460521061.4270.413696935118778.32068125890.3341480736

1361983ItalyITA13619831000000000351.4820.1644260394449.73873055853.76331015971073.8361.169086522218984.76763029191.0993898365

1361984ItalyITA13619841000000000401.8650.1433444671444.3055770642-1.20806884641108.4773.225911591719596.47674732113.2221048418

1361985ItalyITA13619851000000000451.0120.1222972889458.98150503023.30311585621139.4942.798163606520136.558571392.7560149257

1361986ItalyITA13619861000000000498.650.105624684650.036795770141.62592362571172.0822.859865870320708.95907074022.8425934716

1361987ItalyITA13619871000000000545.4880.0939296099815.835790768825.50609382081209.4963.192097481221371.26890115643.1981802086

1361988ItalyITA13619881000000000606.1680.111239844903.8505920310.78829860831260.2254.194226355422261.77201214464.1668237628

1361989ItalyITA13619891000000000665.5460.0979563421939.8749121613.98564989041302.9273.3884425422999.91839249423.3157575235

1361990ItalyITA13619901000000000724.4680.0885318221173.062778458524.81052140881329.672.052532490323453.30293877561.971244152

1361991ItalyITA13619911000000000791.3820.09236294771239.52664903625.66584089091350.0651.533839223323792.15721015951.4448040528

1361992ItalyITA13619921000000000832.8430.0523906281314.81380252736.07386324041360.4990.772851677523963.87094601420.7217241141

1361993ItalyITA13619931000000000857.8280.02999965181057.44162263-19.57480058411348.416-0.88813001723730.8401346327-0.9724255814

1361994ItalyITA13619941000000000907.3210.05769571521090.59638509863.13537520741377.4312.151784019224232.46016810832.1137896114

1361995ItalyITA13619951000000000984.9840.08559594671171.5095133937.41916344121409.0592.296158573524787.99673663592.2925306167

1361996ItalyITA136199610000000001043.0850.0589867451309.315317394411.76309730531427.1841.286319451525106.94275442051.2866954162

1361997ItalyITA136199710000000001089.870.04485252881240.5770813059-5.24993751891453.3781.835362504125553.28607152171.77776849

1361998ItalyITA136199810000000001135.5010.04186829621268.03241132582.21310956281476.8661.6160971225953.46836137161.5660697756

1361999ItalyITA136199910000000001171.9020.03205721531250.2029085035-1.40607626931499.9031.55985715726356.11462481341.5514160105

1362000ItalyITA136200010000000001239.2660.05748262231145.1086347633-8.40617735131555.5513.710106586927327.03266930563.6838436102

1362001ItalyITA136200110000000001298.890.04811235041163.31619143331.59002876381583.1181.772169475627793.16655773771.7057610831

1362002ItalyITA136200210000000001345.7940.03611083311270.9936479859.25607821371587.0530.2485601227849.13893495990.2013889893

1362003ItalyITA136200310000000001390.710.03337509311572.65311252523.73414414921589.4550.151349702927821.4759729242-0.0993314806

1362004ItalyITA136200410000000001448.3630.04145580321800.755752745814.50432001851614.5991.581925880328081.98497632010.9363593925

1362005ItalyITA136200510000000001489.7260.02855844841855.833613133.05859694191629.9320.949647559528163.09211721390.2888226775

1362006ItalyITA136200610000000001548.4740.03943543981944.33892841524.76903288411662.6382.006586777928634.47010580391.6737437304

1362007ItalyITA136200710000000001609.5520.03944399452206.109321581813.4632079491687.1431.473862620728976.88956587881.1958295677

1362008ItalyITA136200810000000001632.1520.01404117422402.0618252238.88226624691669.421-1.050414813728462.7309402992-1.7743747976

1362009ItalyITA136200910000000001572.878-0.03631647052190.7003886621-8.7991672131577.903-5.482020413126743.8530186802-6.0390477823

1362010ItalyITA136201010000000001604.5150.02011408392129.0212992638-2.81549634621604.5151.686542201927107.80746044151.3608900763

1362011ItalyITA136201110000000001637.4610.02053330762278.37583679327.01517347811613.7670.576622842427183.95396320610.2809024775

1362012ItalyITA136201210000000001613.266-0.01477592442073.9720770779-8.97146802621568.274-2.819056282626404.4942968933-2.8673520687

1362013ItalyITA136201310000000001604.478-0.00544733482130.99675529472.74953934271540.858-1.74816390525816.4051214884-2.2272313523

1362014ItalyITA136201410000000001611.8830.00461520822141.93729221080.513399981535.57-0.343185420125263.2872252334-2.1425054869

1362015ItalyITA136201510000000001636.370.01519154931815.7570613242-15.22828105531547.2330.759522522625449.74791930710.7380698023

1371970LuxembourgLUX137197010000000001.71845797171.38644845477.835265939622045.5083247535

1371971LuxembourgLUX137197110000000001.87822470480.09297098661.545737364211.48898892978.11272497893.541156629822802.57381093033.4341031063

1371972LuxembourgLUX137197210000000002.10277617160.11955516631.927247072924.68140562648.55617364695.466087771523949.91104137965.0316128344

1371973LuxembourgLUX137197310000000002.38333264320.13342193782.475535956328.44933018859.03860687925.638422643125222.3734615175.3130152256

1371974LuxembourgLUX137197410000000002.79718368550.17364384422.901522254517.20784128219.4272324584.299618115926226.0636318543.9793644792

1371975LuxembourgLUX137197510000000003.09396918910.10610154253.403212359917.29058271499.2828685076-1.531350278225771.693666508-1.7325130135

1371976LuxembourgLUX137197610000000003.52511283680.13934969013.68631320768.31863597539.82012311315.78759254327207.67142295375.5719184584

1371977LuxembourgLUX137197710000000003.80274318360.0787578614.282096698416.16204205399.85423342710.347351185127274.38044831710.2451846184

1371978LuxembourgLUX137197810000000004.14003974680.08869822315.311414999524.037717350210.39141767735.451304296628705.57460164365.2473938172

1371979LuxembourgLUX137197910000000004.39570011330.06175311886.050945726813.923422052410.90038086784.897918708830036.87297198464.6377694535

1371980LuxembourgLUX137198010000000004.70070677050.06938750366.49438340577.328402847511.24594533533.170205442430878.48698076682.8019361721

1371981LuxembourgLUX137198110000000005.13304773080.09197360775.6008158495-13.759082277611.33568618430.797984040331031.17044371010.4944654932

1371982LuxembourgLUX137198210000000005.18439842780.01000393914.5994494736-17.878937689911.45351765911.039473684231328.00182682790.9565587726

1371983LuxembourgLUX137198310000000005.70343009690.10011415534.5148133008-1.840137027911.66959174751.886530364231919.0140937871.8865303642

1371984LuxembourgLUX137198410000000006.32336815090.10869565224.4260423768-1.966214726412.22151039814.729545493333401.23148934074.643681635

1371985Luxemb

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