PowerPoint Presentation

Fish to 2030 and Some Other PerspectivesJames L. Anderson Advisor for Oceans, Fisheries and AquacultureLead of the Global Program for FisheriesThe World Bank

Seafood Investor ForumMay 20, 2014Roosevelt Hotel, New York, NY

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Fish to 2030 Why?Nearly 40 percent of global fish harvest is exportedOver $110 billion in trade and growingFish trade is more than all other meats combinedTwo-thirds of seafood trade (in value) is from developing to developed countriesFish trade is more than all other meats combined; more than coffeeFisheries and aquaculture is an efficient animal protein producing sectorSustainable food production from fisheries and aquaculture is essential in the face of population growth

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Fish to 2030 ProjectCollaboration: The World Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), University of Arkansas, and FAOProjection of global supply and demand for fish and fish meal & oil using IFPRIs IMPACT ModelCapture and aquaculture supply modeledModel:Country groups: 115Seafood groups: 16

Hundreds of species traded more than 30 shrimp species aloneIt is Dynamic: Aquaculture new technologies, new species, new playersDemand is shiftingLarge emerging consumers ChinaGovernance of capture fisheries is weak and uncertainData are poor!!!

Fish sector is dynamic and complex(Modeling is challenging)

Global fish production:Data and projections (1984-2030)Projected Total Fish SupplyTotal Harvest189.1 Million Tons

Aquaculture Growth2030 (Model)

Approx. 50% of total harvestApprox. 62% of fish of human seafood consumptionAquaculture 2010-2030 62% in 20 yrsTotal supply (capture + aquaculture) 2010-2030 24% in 20 yrsAquaculture Supply Growth: SpeciesMore than 90% increase from 2010 to 2030TilapiaShrimp40-90% increase from 2010 to 2030MolluscsSalmonCarpPangasius/catfish CrustaceansOther freshwater and diadromous species

Total Fish Supply Growth: RegionsMore than 60% increase from 2010 to 2030India30-60% increase from 2010 to 2030Southeast AsiaOther South AsiaChina

Aquaculture Supply Growth: RegionsMore than 100% increase from 2010 to 2030IndiaLatin America and CaribbeanSoutheast Asia50-100% increase from 2010 to 2030South Asia (excl. India)Middle East and North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaLess than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030Everywhere else

Consumption Growth: RegionsMore than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030South Asia (excl. India)30-50% increase from 2010 to 2030IndiaSoutheast AsiaNorth AmericaMiddle East and North AfricaChinaSub-Saharan AfricaDecline from 2010 to 2030JapanKey Conclusions from 2030 studyExpectations for 2030:Aquaculture will produce 2/3 of food fishChina will consume nearly 40% of seafoodProduction of tilapia, shrimp, will nearly double from 2010 to 2030Largest tonnage gains will be in mollusks, carps Aquaculture will grow fastest in India, Latin America, and Southeast Asia

Some Additional PerspectivesChina: International Seafood Trade (1984-2011)

China: #1 Seafood Exporter #1 Seafood ImporterSource: FishStat, FAO 201420China: International Seafood Trade (1984-2011)

China: #1 Seafood Exporter #3 Seafood Importer(US and Japan are #1 & #2)Source: FishStat, FAO 201421China Things to considerIs their economic growth sustainable?

The corruption crack down and high value seafood demand

Food Safety

Aquaculture

Big Risk..DISEASE ISA salmon EMS shrimp

Systems? Species? Where?... Low cost producers generally win ... Unless create market niches are created, like varietal wines

US Seafood Consumption Continues to Concentratein Fewer Species and Per Capita Consumption is Declining

24Fisheries Reform

Great investment opportunity to stop losses, cut waste and innovate in marketing

BUT .... There to be the creation of new ways to make monetize natural fisheries assets ... Blue bonds?, public private partnership?, creating new markets futures? options?... We need create thinking.

Thank Youjanderson8@worldbank.org

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/18882045/fish-2030-prospects-fisheries-aquaculture26

Edible kg per Capita

19872010% change

1Tuna1.59Shrimp75%1.7266

2Shrimp56%1.04Tuna1.09-32

3Cod0.76Salmon0.92358

4AK Pollock0.4092%Tilapia0.67NA

71%5Flatfish0.33Catfish/Pangasius0.56106

6Clams0.30AK Pollock0.5332

7Catfish0.27Crab0.2458

8Salmon0.20Cod0.24-69

9Crab0.15Clams0.16-48

10Scallops0.15

Other2.16Other0.51-61

Total7.35Total6.62-10

Source: NFI (2013).