fistera - a personal view

Ways to European Future

2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006

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Outcomes of European Foresight Projects –

FISTERA http://fistera.jrc.es/

Presentation by Ian Miles, [email protected]

Note: this is a personal view, not necessarily consensus or majority view among project members!!



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FISTERA• A Thematic Network on Foresight on Information

Society Technologies in the European Research Area • Competitive action under the European FPV IST

programme • 3 years (+) from 01 September 2002• Three objectives:

– Compare results of national foresight exercises – Provide a new forum for consensus building on future

visions for IST – Contribute to constructing the European Research Area

through benchmarking and community building, by providing a dynamic pan European platform on foresight on ISTs

• Several discrete lines of work



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Workpackages

PRESTWorkpackage 1

Review and Analysis of National Foresight

Results Workpackage 2

Key European Technology Trajectories

Workpackage 3

IST Actor Space Mapping

Workpackage 4

IST Futures Forum

Workpackage 5

Dissemination and Interaction with the Research Community

Workpackage 6 Management

IPTS

ITAS

ARCsys

TiLab



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Workpackage 1Workpackage 1

Review and Analysis of National Foresight Results

• Variations in Foresight practices• Zeitgeist problems ( extra work!)

•perceptions of EU diversity, plus common challenges (ageing, bureaucracy)…

• common themes across projects – Moore’s Law, convergence, AI, sensors…

•

• Application areas: education, e-govt., health, transport

• Drivers: security, entertainment



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Workpackage 2

Workpackage 2


Workpackage 2




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Reports, presentations and online tool

Workpackage 2

Technology

Functionality

Service

Ambient

Fou

r La

yers

List of developments

Year related today 2008 2020

Disruptions; cost and geographical trends, etc. – ambitious, rich content

Workpackage 2




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Reports, presentations and online tool

Workpackage 2

http://fistera.telecomitalialab.com/

•Storage•Computation •Sensors •Display •Wet ware •Nano technology •Local Wireless Access •Printing bits into atoms •The Grid •Language Understanding

Workpackage 2




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Workpackage 3

Workpackage 3


Workpackage 3




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Workpackage 3

• database of actors• patent analysis of EU S&W

• priorities of major labs• study of software

Workpackage 3




PREST Patent analysis of strengths



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Workpackage 4

Workpackage 3


Workpackage 4

IST Futures Forum

Workpackage 4

IST Futures Forum



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Workpackage 4

Delphi and Scenario Studies• Key application areas (delphi)

• Scenario review, Multiple scenario workshop, Success scenario and policy priority

workshop

Workpackage 4

IST Futures Forum



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The Delphi

Round 1 Round 2 90 + 152 BRC

Some reassessed their views with

new surveys

Some confirmed original judgements

via email

Results of Both Round Combined are based on

515 final judgements363 respondents 242 respondents

Focus on Applications, not enabling technologies

Asked about implications for EU goals, not about forecasts of when developments happen



PREST 6 “Lisbon” GoalsIST Application Areas contributing to the 6 Lisbon Objectives in the EU25

76% 65%

58%

70%

62%

61%

60%

62%

55%

47% 45% 59%

48%

56%

62%

60%

56%

57%

54%

0% 300% 600%

Leisure and recreation

Security

Ageing

Transport

Health

Social / family relationships

Management

Cultural diversity

Work organisation

Government

Social welfare / public services

Education and learning

FISTERA Delphi 2004-5 % of respondents EU25 Base: 413 Resp.

Job Creation Wealth Creation Competitiveness

Social Cohesion Social Inclusion Environmental Quality



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European Capabilities

Also inputs on Actions, Challenges, Impediments and Stakeholders



PRESTFour Futures - Different Patterns of use of new IST

Competitive and Dynamic Knowledge Society:

• rapid growth in IST use• economy-driven innovations

• uneven development

Cohesive and Integrated Knowledge Society:

• rapid growth in IST use• economy-driven innovations

• much reduction in disparities across EU

Challenged Knowledge Society:• slow and very uneven growth in

IST use• innovations in specific areas

• major concerns about technology and market

Sustainable and Inclusive Knowledge Society:

• new paradigms of IST use• social & community-driven innovations

• environmental and other objectives

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Scenario 3 Scenario 4Scenario 4Scenario 3 Scenario 4Scenario 4

Progress and polaris-ation

Challenged and contested

Doing things differently

Catch Up and Creative

WS1

WS1



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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Not at all A little bit A moderateamount

A considerableextend

Completely

SC3

SC1

SC2

SC4

Each scenario seen as reflected to some extent

WS1



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Rough Mapping of 4 Scenarios on 8 Goals

Competitive & Dynamic Catching-up

Challenged Cohesive & Sustainable

-2

-1

0

1

2

Sustainability &environmental quality

Social inclusion

Job creation

Competitiveness &innovativeness

Economic growth& wealth creation

Employer-employeerelations

Work-life balance

Social cohesion

Scenario 4

-2

-1

0

1

2


Social inclusion

Job creation




Work-life balance

Social cohesion

Scenario 3

-2

-1

0

1

2


Social inclusion

Job creation




Work-life balance

Social cohesion

Scenario 2

-2

-1

0

1

2


Social inclusion

Job creation




Work-life balance

Social cohesion

Scenario 1

WS2

WS2



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Views of a Success ScenarioWS2

WS2

-2

-1

0

1

2


Social inclusion


Job creation



Work-life balance

Social cohesion

Mode Mean

The orange line shows the most voted (mode) views for the success scenario The blue line shows average (mean) of the views for the success scenario



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Priority-setting Results

PC-1

PA-9

PI-9 PC-4

PA-1

PI-8PC-8

PA-3

PI-1PC-2

PA-7

PI-5PC-5

PA-2

PI-3PC-6

PA-5

PI-2

PC-10

PA-8

PI-6

PC-3

PA-4

PI-7

PC-7

PA-6

PI-4

PC-9 PA-10

6.0

8.0

10.0

15.0 19.0 23.0Feasibility(Political, Resources, Ethical, Sustainability, Technical)

Imp

ort

ance

PC-1 PA-9 PI-9

PC-4 PA-1 PI-8

PC-8 PA-3 PI-1

PC-2 PA-7 PI-5

PC-5 PA-2 PI-3

PC-6 PA-5 PI-2

PC-10 PA-8 PI-6

PC-3 PA-4 PI-7

PC-7 PA-6 PI-4

PC-9 PA-10

Moderate High

Mo

de

rate

Hig

hWS2

WS2

Impo

rtan

ce



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Top Right Corner…PA-9

Raising awareness of citizens and the business community, (in particular the SME community), to the importance of IST in the future economy of the EU

PC-1EU to sponsor education of end-users in security policies for user empowerment (to control the process) at EU level

to balance security & privacy, and to educate users regulations to generate competence in the communities public debate, awareness raising, ethical curriculum to educate young people

PA-8 Interdisciplinary R&D should be directly encouraged by the EU and governments

PC-8 Research on security technology, hard and software, communication

PA-5Let communities take control. To allow regional/local communities more say in major public IST investment (the

principle of subsidiarity)

PA-7E-government applications should drive change. Governments should move directly to adopt e-government services

delivery

PA-3Training for IST at all levels in society including SME development, educational programmes at all levels including

universities. This includes lifelong learning for pleasure and for the workforce

PC-4 Ensure standards at EU level (standardisation, compatibility) ensure compatibility of past-present-future systems



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Foresight OutputsIntelligence on Foresight and IST SceneRTD policy priority analysis of variable granularity.

• Scenario Workshop – Innovative Information Society e.g. “user-centred” innovation

• Delphi – key applications for EU goals e.g. education and learning

• Trajectories and Capabilities – key underpinning S&T e.g. flexible embedded communications capabilities, profiling and tagging systems

All need to be taken into account – IS policy is multilevel, multidomain policy.



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FISTERA did not `` change FP7 course” but ”had a multiplying effect”Contribution to EU IST policy supportEC's advisory groups (eEurope, ISTAG), DGINFSO meetings, ERA National IST Forum, academic & policy conferences, presentation to Commissioner Reding’s Cab., National IST Research Directors Forum, DG RTD KTE groupContribution to national IST policy supportFISTERA methodology employed in (running) Foresight Exercises in Romania, Hungary, Austria, Poland and Colombia. Impacts in Austria, etc.Contributions to Research community20 Reports & Studies, 4 (+ 2) books, articles, CD ROMs; FISTERA reviewed by ETNO, SwissCom’s Vision 2015, NISTEP; links with ESTO, European Foresight Monitoring Network, FOR- LEARN ….

Impacts and Uses



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Critical Issues

• FISTERA produced considerable volume of original output, reviewed well and attracting much interest (?few surprises?)

• Problems with integration and synthesis of different WPs, low flexibility of working arrangements (several efforts in final publications)

• Limited interaction with key end-users (e.g. ISTAG) (? novel Foresight remained rather abstract?)

Note: this is a personal view, not necessarily majority or consensus among project members!!



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End of Presentation

fistera - a personal view

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