five cash transfer programs in five countries: what can we say about the potential for social cash...
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http://www.fao.org/economic/PtoP/en/ Presentation given by FAO economists Solomon Asfaw and Joshua Dewbre on results of a cross country analysis on the impacts of social cash transfer programmes on a set of economic outcomes of the rural poor in Malawi, Kenya, Ghana, Zambia, and Lesotho.TRANSCRIPT
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Five cash transfer programs in five countries: What can we say about the potential for SCT programs
to deliver economic gains to the rural poor? Solomon Asfaw and Joshua Dewbre
ESA Seminar
Thursday, April 17, 2014 Rome, Italy
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Impact evaluations across SSA countries
• Malawi SCT – Mchinji pilot, 2008-2009 – Expansion, 2013-2014
• Kenya – CT OVC, Pilot 2007-2011 – CT OVC, Expansion, 2012-2014 – HSNP, Pilot 2010-2012
• Mozambique PSA – Expansion, 2008-2009
• Zambia – Monze pilot, 2007-2010 – Child Grant, 2010-2013
• South Africa CSG – Retrospective, 2010
• Burkina Faso – Experiment, 2008-2010
• Ethiopia – PNSP, 2006-2010 – Tigray SPP, 2012-2014
• Ghana LEAP – Pilot, 2010-2012
• Lesotho, CGP – Pilot, 2011-2013
• Uganda, SAGE – Pilot, 2012-2014
• Zimbabwe, SCT – Pilot, 2013-2015
• Tanzania, TASAF – Pilot, 2009-2012 – Expansion, 2012-2014
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What we hypothesized Primary targets: income safety net + investment in health & education of children.
But reasons to believe the transfer might enable:
► increased investment in productive activity: on & off-farm ► investment in crop inputs and farm implements ► purchases of livestock ► increase in labor devoted to more productive and desirable
employment ► reduction in less desirable forms of employment (casual piece job
agricultural labor) ► participation in social networks of reciprocity and support
...so, what do we see?
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Analytical framework
Pre-program level program execution Post program level
Comparison group
Program group
ΔP
ΔC
Impact
ΔP = Change in level of program group ΔC = Change in level of comparison group ΔP-ΔC = Impact of program (DD)
► Randomized phase-in of beneficiaries creates treatment (T)
and control groups (C) ► Impacts are established comparing changes in indicators
between T and C (difference-in-differences)
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What we find: productive activities Zambia Malawi Kenya Lesotho Ghana
Agricultural inputs +++ -‐ -‐ -‐ ++ +++
Agricultural tools +++ +++ NS NS NS
Agricultural produc4on +++ NS ++(1) NS
Home produc4on of food
NS +++ +++ NS
Livestock ownership All types All types Small ++(2) NS
Non farm enterprise (NFE)
+++ NS +FHH NS NS
1) Maize and garden plot vegetables 2) Pigs
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What we find: labor allocation adults Zambia Kenya Malawi Lesotho Ghana
Agricultural/casual wage labor
-‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐ NS
Family farm +++ +++ +++ NS +++
Non farm business (NFE) +++ +++ NS NS
Non agricultural wage labor +++ NS NS NS NS
children
Wage labor NS NS -‐ -‐ -‐ NS NS
Family farm NS -‐ -‐ -‐ (1) +++ NS NS
1) Particularly older boys
Shift from to own farm
No clear picture on child labor (but usually positive impacts on schooling)
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What we find: social networks and risk coping strategies Zambia Kenya Malawi Ghana Lesotho
Nega4ve risk coping -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐
Pay off debt +++ +++ NS
Borrowing -‐ -‐ -‐ NS -‐ -‐ -‐ NS
Purchase on credit NS NS NS
Savings +++ +++ +++
Give informal transfers NS +++ +++
Receive informal transfers -‐ -‐ -‐ NS +++
Qualitative results: Ø Re-engagement with social networks, re-investing in alliances and social security Ø Allow to participate, to “mingle” again Ø Increase in savings, paying off debt and credit worthiness
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What we find: food security
Zambia Kenya Malawi Ghana Lesotho Inadequate for @ least 1 month NS
Months with sufficient food +++ NS
Months some shortage +++
Months extra shortage -‐ -‐ -‐
Eats more than one meal a day +++ +++
Food security scale +++ +++ +++ NS
Is not severely food insecure +++
BeSer off than 12 months ago +++
Child smaller meal -‐ -‐ -‐
Child fewer meals than needed -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐
Child sleep hungry -‐ -‐ -‐ NS
Food security asked about in different ways across countries. All, however, positive.
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What we find: nutri/on
Zambia Kenya (1) Malawi Ghana Lesotho
Meat +++ +++ +++ -‐ -‐ -‐ NS
Dairy +++ +++ +++ NS NS
Cereals +++ NS +++ NS NS
Fruits/vegetables NS NS +++ NS NS
Sugars +++ +++ +++ NS NS
Fats, oil, other +++ +++ +++ +++ NS
Dietary diversity +++ +++ +++ NS NS
1) 2007-‐2009
no impact Big impact
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What explains difference in impact?
Crop Livestock NFE Produc/ve labor
Social Network
Food security
Zambia yes yes yes yes yes
Malawi yes yes no yes small yes
Kenya no small yes yes
Lesotho yes small no no yes yes
Ghana no no no small small small
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Targeting important è Transfers impact productive outcomes more if targeted to less
labor constrained hhlds
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 to 89
Over 90
1000 500 500 1000 population
Males Females
Ghana LEAP
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 to 89
Over 90
2000 500 500 2000 population
Males Females
Zambia CGP
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Predictability of payment important è Reliable source of income enables appropriate planning, which
leads to consumption smoothing and investment.
0
1
Sep
-10
Nov
-10
Jan-
11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep
-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep
-12
# of
pay
men
ts
Zambia CGP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
# of
pay
men
ts
Ghana LEAP
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Value of transfer important
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ghana LEAP (old)
Kenya CT-OVC
(big)
Burkina Kenya CT-OVC
RSA CSG Lesotho CGP
(base)
Ghana LEAP
(current)
Kenya CT-OVC (small)
Zim (HSCT)
Zambia CGP
Zambia MCP
Malawi SCT
Widespread impact
Selective impact
% o
r per
cap
ita in
com
e of
poo
r
è Little impact for transfers <20-30% of per capita consumption
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…and account for inflation
è None indexed with inflation, though value of transfer adjusted in some countries.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Ken
yan
Shi
lling
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Kenya CT-OVC erosion of transfer
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…evidence cash transfers need not be conditional
Zambia Kenya (1) Malawi Ghana Lesotho
Total +++ +++ +++ NS NS
Food +++ +++ +++ NS NS
Educa4on NS NS NS NS +++
Health +++ +++ +++ NS NS
Clothing +++ +++ (2) NS +++
Alcohol/tobacco NS NS NS NS -‐ -‐ -‐
1) 2007-2009 2) Changes of clothing, not consumption per se
unique
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For each Cedi transferred local
income increases by 2.5 Cedi
(90% CI: 2.38-2.65)
Nearly all the spillover goes to non-
beneficiary households
Local economy and supply response important
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Production constraints can limit supply response, which may lead to higher prices and a lower multiplier
If supply response is constrained, real income multiplier can be as low as 1.50
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Size of income multiplier varies by context
Differences across countries:
Openness of local economies
Where money is spent in local economy
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Kenya (Nyanza)
Ethiopia (Abi-Adi)
Zimbabwe Zambia Kenya (Garissa)
Lesotho Ghana Ethiopia (Hintalo)
Nominal multiplier Real multiplier
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► Demographic profile of beneficiary households • Available labor: OVC? Households with young children?
► Relevance of messaging and soft conditions on social spending
► Access to productive assets ► Value of the transfer relative to the total expenditure ► Relative importance of subsistence agriculture, diversity of
the local economy, nature of market constraints : e.g. openness of local economies, where money is spent in local economy
► Coordination with other interventions
Differences across countries: in summary Relative impacts between programmes dependent on:
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Making cash transfers more productive: operational and policy
1. Ensure transfers meet threshold & sustain them over time
2. Ensure payment predictability 3. Link transfers to supply side interventions 4. Target households with higher potential to sustainably
achieve self-reliance (e.g. less labour constrained households)
5. Consider messaging: unconditional cash transfers successful in achieving desired outcomes; sharpen focus towards productive objectives?
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Cash transfers needs to be part of a rural development strategy
► Potential conflicts with social objectives but on other hand, social ministries increasingly recognize the need to focus on livelihoods as well
► Cash transfer programmes cannot replace sector economic development strategy, nor do they constitute a motor of growth in and of themselves
► Almost three quarters of economically active rural population are smallholders, most producing own food
► Small holder agriculture as key for rural poverty reduction and food security in Sub Saharan Africa – Relies on increased productivity, profitability and sustainability of small
holder farming ► Social protection and agriculture need to be articulated as part of
strategy of rural development – Link to graduation strategies
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Our websites
From Protection to Production Project http://www.fao.org/economic/PtoP/en/ The Transfer Project http://www.cpc.unc.edu/projects/transfer