Five notable characteristics of Five notable characteristics of contemporary world:contemporary world:

• Multiple stressesMultiple stresses

• Macro-perturbations of natural Macro-perturbations of natural systemssystems

• Impending energy transitionImpending energy transition

• Rising connectivity and complexityRising connectivity and complexity

• Power shiftPower shift

CONVERGENT STRESSESCONVERGENT STRESSES

OVERLOADOVERLOAD

StressStress__________________

Coping capacityCoping capacity

CONVERGENCE and SYNERGYCONVERGENCE and SYNERGY

Stresses

Overload

X

X

X

X

Overload

x

Populationgrowth

Environmentaldamage

Energyscarcity

Climatechange

Economic instabilityand inequality

x

x

x

TECTONIC STRESSES

Societynonlinear

Naturenonlinear

Co-evolution of Society and NatureCo-evolution of Society and Nature

Nonlinearity: Absence of simple proportionality between cause and effect

We need to shift from seeing the world We need to shift from seeing the world as composed mainly ofas composed mainly of

MACHINESMACHINES

to seeing it as composed mainly ofto seeing it as composed mainly of

COMPLEX SYSTEMSCOMPLEX SYSTEMS

Whereas MACHINESWhereas MACHINES

• can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully understood (they are no more than the sum understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts)of their parts)

• exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of behaviorbehavior

• show proportionality of cause and effect, show proportionality of cause and effect, andand

• can be managed because their behavior can be managed because their behavior predictablepredictable . . .. . .

COMPLEX SYTEMSCOMPLEX SYTEMS

• are more than the sum of their parts (they are more than the sum of their parts (they have have emergentemergent properties) properties)

• can flip from one pattern of behavior to can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have another (they have multiple equilibriums)multiple equilibriums)

• show disproportionality of cause and effect show disproportionality of cause and effect (their behavior is often (their behavior is often nonlinearnonlinear, because , because of of feedbacks feedbacks and and synergiessynergies), and), and

• cannot be easily cannot be easily managedmanaged because their because their behavior is often behavior is often unpredictableunpredictable..

We’re moving from a world ofWe’re moving from a world of

RISKRISK

to a world ofto a world of

UNCERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY(unknown unknowns)(unknown unknowns)

So, we must move from “management” toSo, we must move from “management” to

Complex AdaptationComplex Adaptation

CLIMATECLIMATE

Positive feedbacks appear to be Positive feedbacks appear to be developing enormous forcedeveloping enormous force

Changes in the Arctic appear to beChanges in the Arctic appear to beoccurring far faster than expectedoccurring far faster than expected

““Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth’s Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth’s climate is remarkably sensitive to global climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states.between climate states. . . . Recent greenhouse . . . Recent greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth perilously close to gas emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures.”other creatures.”

Hansen et al, Hansen et al, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2007).

GISS analysis of global surface temperature; 2008 point is 11-month mean.

Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.”Science (9 January 2009): 240-44

Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.”Science (9 January 2009): 240-44

More rapid warming at polesMore rapid warming at polesOne reason: Ice-albedo feedbackOne reason: Ice-albedo feedback

Atmosphericwarming

Lower reflectivityof ocean surface

Melting ofice

Increased oceanabsorption of sun’s energy

radiativepositive feedback,

fast

20084.52 mK2

““[The] climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the ‘‘dust bowl’’ era and inexorable sea level rise.”

Solomon et al, “Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions,” Solomon et al, “Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions,” PNAS (February 10 2009).

VULNERABILITY OF THE GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEMVULNERABILITY OF THE GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM

China requires about 450 million tons ofChina requires about 450 million tons ofgrain each yeargrain each year

World grain trade is about 200 million tonsWorld grain trade is about 200 million tons

An intervention by China on world grainAn intervention by China on world grainmarkets for only 10 percent of its needsmarkets for only 10 percent of its needswould absorb 25 percent of grain onwould absorb 25 percent of grain onworld marketsworld markets

WEAKENING OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON

IPCC 2007

Source: Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science 308, 1431, 2005.

(A) Forcings used to drive climate simulations.

(B) Simulated and observed surface temperature change.

ENERGYENERGY

We are probably near peakWe are probably near peakglobal output of global output of

conventional oilconventional oil

Energy costs will continue to Energy costs will continue to riserise

relative to other costs in relative to other costs in comingcoming

yearsyears

Producing energy costs energyProducing energy costs energy

This principle is best understoodThis principle is best understoodthrough the concept ofthrough the concept of

Energy Return onEnergy Return onInvestment (EROI)Investment (EROI)

Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

Recent emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C

O2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

50-year constant growth rates

to 2050

B1 1.1%,

A1B 1.7%,

A2 1.8%

A1FI 2.4%

Observed

2000-2006 3.3%

20062005

BRITTLENESSBRITTLENESS

Increased Risk of Cascading FailureIncreased Risk of Cascading FailureAs a result of tight coupling of nodesAs a result of tight coupling of nodes

ANOTHER RESPONSE:

Increase system resilience

RESILIENT people, RESILIENT people, institutionsinstitutions

and societies . . .and societies . . .

have the capability to withstandhave the capability to withstandshock without catastrophic failureshock without catastrophic failure

In a complex, tightly connectedIn a complex, tightly connectedworld exhibiting increasinglyworld exhibiting increasinglyfrequent and severe systemfrequent and severe systemshock . . .shock . . .

the balance of economic andthe balance of economic andsocial investment shouldsocial investment shouldshift away from efficiencyshift away from efficiencytowards resilience.towards resilience.  

POWER SHIFTPOWER SHIFT

Individuals and small groupsIndividuals and small groupsare developing immense capacityare developing immense capacityto kill and destroyto kill and destroy

In this new In this new world, what world, what

should we do?should we do?

• Efficiency and conservation

• Renewables (GSHPs)

• Coal with CCS and nuclear

• Unconventional technologies (UCG, enhanced geothermal, stratospheric windmills)

• Atmospheric carbon capture

• Geoengineering

• Shifting away from conventionally defined “growth”

Coping with CarbonStrategies from conventional to radical(assuming a significant carbon price)

GROWTH = SOLVENCY

GROWTH = FREEDOM

GROWTH = PEACE

Increase system resilience:

RESILIENT people, RESILIENT people, institutionsinstitutions

and societies . . .and societies . . .

have the capability to withstandhave the capability to withstandshock without catastrophic failureshock without catastrophic failure

Connectivity and ResilienceConnectivity and Resilience

Connectivity

Resilience

FIVE PERCEPTUAL SHIFTSFIVE PERCEPTUAL SHIFTSto achieve the Prospective Mindto achieve the Prospective Mind

• Systems: From MECHANICAL to Systems: From MECHANICAL to COMPLEXCOMPLEX

• Self: From CONSUMER to PROBLEMSelf: From CONSUMER to PROBLEM SOLVERSOLVER

• Values: From UTILITARIAN to MORAL Values: From UTILITARIAN to MORAL andand

EXISTENTIALEXISTENTIAL

• Knowledge: From DISCIPLINARY toKnowledge: From DISCIPLINARY to INTEGRATEDINTEGRATED

• Community: From NATIONAL, ETHNIC andCommunity: From NATIONAL, ETHNIC and CULTURAL to GLOBALCULTURAL to GLOBAL