five year forecast - vbgov.com...five year forecast fy 2014-15 through fy 2018-19 november 19, 2013...
TRANSCRIPT
FIVE YEAR FORECAST FY 2014-15 THROUGH FY 2018-19
NOVEMBER 19, 2013
Catheryn Whitesell, Director Budget and Management Services Farrell Hanzaker, Chief Financial Officer Virginia Beach City Public Schools
Overall Economic Outlook
2
Percent Change in Real GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
2004
q220
04q3
2004
q420
05q1
2005
q220
05q3
2005
q420
06q1
2006
q220
06q3
2006
q420
07q1
2007
q220
07q3
2007
q420
08q1
2008
q220
08q3
2008
q420
09q1
2009
q220
09q3
2009
q420
10q1
2010
q220
10q3
2010
q420
11q1
2011
q220
11q3
2011
q420
12q1
2012
q220
12q3
2012
q420
13q1
2013
q220
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
19
Year-Quarter
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (Projection – Congressional Budget Office) 3
Hampton Roads GMA vs. US GDP
4
Hampton Roads Nominal GMP Ranking
Year
Gross Regional Product (GMP)
in Billions
Rank out of 281 MSAs
2001 $52,342 39
2002 $55,721 38
2003 $59,577 37
2004 $63,305 39
2005 $67,927 38
2006 $72,294 39
2007 $75,994 39
2008 $77,503 40
2009 $78,464 38
2010 $80,031 39
2011 $81,642 39
2012 $84,836 39 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, HRPDC 5
Sequestration Impact
6
Defense Spending in Hampton Roads (includes federal civilian and military personnel and procurement)
$10.2
$12.1 $13.1
$13.9 $14.9
$15.7 $16.5
$17.4
$19.1 $19.8
$20.7 $21.6 $22.0
$21.1
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Calendar Year
Source: US Department of Defense, Old Dominion University, 2013 State of the Region Report
In B
illio
ns
Forecast Estimate
7
Consumer Confidence
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Source: The Conference Board
8
Projected
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Calendar Year
All Items Core CPISource: Congressional Budget Office
*Note: Core Inflation does not include food or energy costs
*
9
Average Monthly Unemployment Rate Through August*
5.3 5.7
7.2 7.5
6.1
7.0 6.6
5.5
7.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
VirginiaBeach
Chesapeake Norfolk Portsmouth Suffolk Hampton NewportNews
State ofVirginia
UnitedStates
Perc
ent
* Note: The US Unemployment Rate is through October Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 10
Change In Virginia Beach Employment by Industry
-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
ConstructionManufacturingWholesale TradeRetail TradeTransportation & WarehousingInformationFinance & InsuranceReal EstateProfessional, Scientific and TechnicalManagementAdministative and Support & Waste MgmtEducational ServicesHealth Care & Social AssistanceArts & Entertain,entHospitalityOther PrivateFederal GovernmentState GovernmentLocal Government (City + Schools)
2013 to 2012 First Quarter Comparison
Source: Virginia Employment Commission 11
Median Household Income – Virginia Beach
$58,545 $61,333 $61,462
$65,776
$59,298
$64,212 $64,614 $61,626
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Calendar Year
Virginia Beach United States State of Virginia Virginia Beach - MSA
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 12
Revenues 13
Average Change in Assessments and Tax Rate
$0.977
$1.032 $1.090
$1.140 $1.188
$1.220
$1.196
$1.024 $0.990
$0.890 $0.950
$0.930
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Residential Commercial Tax Rate
Ass
essm
ent C
hang
e
Fiscal Years 14
Real Estate Tax Revenue
$506.3 $499.3
$473.6
$460.3
$474.3
$462.9 $470.7
$479.9 $489.3
$499.0 $508.9
$400.0
$430.0
$460.0
$490.0
$520.0
$550.0
FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
Mill
ions
15
Each penny on the tax rate in 2015 will generate $4.87 million
Personal Property Tax Revenue
*Note: Machinery & Tools tax effectively eliminated by City Council in FY 2013 by setting the rate at one-millionth of a cent per $100 of assessed value.
Vehi
cles
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
$140.0
$160.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ions
Fiscal Year
Personal Property Personal Property Paid By the CommonwealthPersonal Property Vehicles Public Service Personal PropertyBusiness Equipment Machinery & Tools*
16
General Sales/State Share Sales Tax
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
$80.0
$90.0
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
Mill
ions
General Sales Tax State Share Sales Tax (Schools)
17
Business, Professional, Occupational License (BPOL)
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
Mill
ions
18
Hotel and Restaurant Tax Revenue
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
$80.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ions
Fiscal Year Hotel Restaurant
19
Charges for Services
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
$300.0
$350.0
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
Mill
ions
City Schools20
Fund Balance
$22.2 $17.9
$22.2 $17.6
$3.8 $6.2 $5.8 $5.5 $4.7 $4.4
$8.5
$33.3
$34.7
$35.3
$24.4 $24.7
$21.5 $14.5
$9.4 $7.4
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
Mill
ions
City Schools
Forecast Period
21
Total Revenue
Adopted FY 2014
Forecast FY 2015
Forecast FY 2016
Forecast FY 2017
Forecast FY 2018
Forecast FY 2019
City $ 940.9 $ 950.5 $ 964.6 $ 980.1 $ 999.5 $ 1,021.7
Schools $ 839.5 $ 850.8 $ 860.1 $ 866.7 $ 876.0 $ 888.3
Total Revenue $1,780.4 $1,801.3 $ 1,824.7 $ 1,846.8 $ 1,875.5 $ 1,910.0
22
$0.0
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ions
Fiscal Year
City Schools
Expenditures 23
Salaries
$321.5 $313.3 $320.8 $323.3 $336.2 $341.0 $345.6 $350.6 $351.2 $351.2
$480.7 $470.0 $493.3 $468.7 $467.1 $473.0 $479.0 $485.0 $485.0 $485.0
$0.0
$100.0
$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
$700.0
$800.0
$900.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ions
Fiscal Year City Schools
24
Fringe Benefits
$108.9 $109.3 $112.6 $129.4 $127.9 $136.7 $138.1 $146.3 $150.2 $159.1
$158.5 $134.5 $148.4
$174.6 $171.4 $182.7 $183.7
$193.9 $198.3 $203.0
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
$300.0
$350.0
$400.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ions
Fiscal Year
City Schools 25
Operating Costs
$302.7 $304.1 $325.2 $311.9 $315.0 $322.2 $327.7 $331.9 $337.1 $343.6
$194.4 $179.9 $166.6 $159.5 $157.8 $152.6 $154.5 $156.3 $158.2 $160.1
$0.0
$100.0
$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ions
City Schools
26
Pay-As-You-Go
$54.9
$33.7 $41.3
$45.7 $51.6
$47.9 $49.1 $50.7 $49.3 $48.2
$0.6
$1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ions
Fiscal Year City Schools
27
Debt Service
$102.2 $103.3 $103.8 $111.0 $110.2 $120.6 $127.5 $136.4 $142.0 $145.0
$44.2 $43.9 $44.8 $44.7 $43.1
$44.2 $45.5
$46.8 $46.7 $45.6
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ions
Fiscal Year
City Schools 28
Total City and School Forecast
$1,703.8
$1,768.8 $1,801.3
$1,846.8
$1,910.0 $1,828.1
$1,906.2 $1,949.0
$1,500.0
$1,600.0
$1,700.0
$1,800.0
$1,900.0
$2,000.0
$2,100.0
$2,200.0
$2,300.0
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
Revenue Expenditures
Mill
ions
Deficit in 2015 is projected to be $26.8 million. Nearly $20 million less than last year’s deficit.
29
Next Steps
Present a balanced Budget and CIP in March
Work with the General Assembly to: strengthen sales tax in terms of capturing internet sales and
service related sales Understand the need to replace any local revenues eliminated by
State actions. Efforts to eliminate BPOL could cost us $43 million Recognize as a State obligation part of the unfunded liability for
the teacher’s pension rather than assigning 100% of it to localities
Work regionally to diversify our economy, build on current assets at EVMS, the ODU Modeling and Simulation Center and our technical and certificate programs.
30