“flash” edition q1 ‘20

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Consumer Insights

“Flash” Edition• Q1 ‘20

Copyright of SOPUS CONFIDENTIAL

Contents

• Consumer Purchasing & Driving Trends

• Gas Prices

• Kline’s special report on COVID-19’s impact on Finished Lubricants:• Consumer

• Commercial / Transport

• Industrial

• Installed / DIFM Markets

• Retail / DIY Markets• PCMO & HDEO trends

• Auto + Mass Merchant

• Convenience

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• Consumers reduced spending, especially on discretionary purchases. While there are select categories where consumers expect to spend more (for example: grocery, home-based entertainment, and household supplies), consumers expect to focus this spending online. The shift to online channels is being driven primarily by Gen Z, Millennials, and higher-income consumers.


Consumers are shifting dollars to essentials at expense of discretionary spending; Sales shift online

4Source: NPD Specialty Retail POS: (Apparel, Athletic Footwear, Automotive, Consumer Technology, Office Supplies, Prestige Beauty, Small Appliances, Toys, Video)

NPD Cross-Channel Overview (Specialty Retail)

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Consumers are making far fewer shopping trips as indicated by WAZE Navigation; total ‘trips’ down 37%

Source: Mindshare/AKQA Media Update, 4.9.20


Household / Personal Vehicle Travel has Declined as much as 70%

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Source: Streetlight Data, Apr ‘20

• Cellular data collected by Streetlight Data shows that household vehicle travel across the U.S. has declined by over 50% during the coronavirus.

• Vehicle travel declined by 68 to 72% during the last two weeks in March and the first week of April, compared with the first week in March.

• The District of Columbia has seen the most dramatic drop in home-based travel, with a whopping 89% decline.

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Source: The Conference Board

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: IHS / Polk, DOT, NADA, Ward’s

Source: IHS Auto

• Millions of Americans lost jobs due to the Coronavirus crisis, as hundreds of thousands of businesses have been forced to close or cut back on their hours of operation. In March, the unemployment rate spiked up +0.9 point to 4.4% – the largest month-over-month increase in the rate since January 1975.

• Consumer Confidence tumbled in March, as COVID-19 cases surged and many consumers’ short-term outlook deteriorated.• New Vehicle sales were on a healthy pace until mid-March, when sales fell -34% for the month, Q1 ’20 was down -12.3%.• The average age of all registered Light Vehicles in Operation remained at 11.9 years.

Forecast

Unemployment Rate Spikes, Consumer Confidence Slips, New Car Sales Crash

10.611.0 11.1

11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

P

2021

P

2022

P

Avg Age of Vehicle Population in U.S.

New Vehicle Sales

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

Apr

-17

May

-17

Jun-

17

Jul-1

7

Aug

-17

Sep-

17

Oct

-17

Nov

-17

Dec

-17

Jan-

18

Feb-

18

Mar

-18

Apr

-18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Unemployment Rate

54.1 58.0 66.9 72.887.0

97.6 99.5120.8 130.0 128.2 128.1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020TD

Consumer Confidence Index

11.6

12.8 14.5

15.6

16.5

17.4

17.6

17.2

17.3

17.0

13.5 16

.5

16.4

16.7

-2

3

8

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MIL

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Through the end of Feb ‘20, Gasoline Prices grew +11%, but plummeted to $2 by the end of the quarter, as the COVID-19 pandemic began to hamper demand.

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$2.34

+$0.08 YoY

+3.6%

2020 PPG (Regular)

trend

•March 2020 saw an saw an unprecedented decline in demand as many Americans followed stay-at-home orders due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The YoY demand for gasoline in March was down -20% from last year. •Demand for gasoline dropped -10% between February and March of this year, when there is normally a pronounced uptick during this period.•The national avg. price per gallon for regular gas purchased in Q1 ‘20 was $2.34, up +3.6%/+$0.08 vs. Q1 ‘19.

Sources: EPA, FHWA, EIA, DOT, AAA, BIC, The Hill, Gas Buddy, Gasoline Pump Graphic detail through Q1 ‘20

$2.01

$1.60

$1.85

$2.10

$2.35

$2.60

$2.85

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

Aug

ust

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

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Weekly U.S. Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon): 5YR Trend

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


▪ U.S. Vehicle sales statistics: JD Powers reports that OEMs and Dealers are moving to limit the steep sales losses which

characterized March using an array of incentives and deep discounts, focused primarily on premium pick-up trucks.

▪ U.S. Vehicle Sales down 35% in March; 24 states have allowed for dealerships to remain open while 26 states have restricted sales to online or remote

only.

▪ To-date the Detroit 3 look to emerge from the COVID crisis in strongest position, boosting collective market share above 50% for the first time since

2006.

▪ PCMO Demand: Kline predicts PCMO demand could fall by 15% to 24%, depending upon duration of the COVID-19 lockdown

▪ Kline estimates that 50% to 75% of Quick Lubes and Fast Fits are operational, with fewer than 50% of Dealer Service Bays and Independent Workshops

operational.

▪ U.S. Shopping statistics: Reports from IRI and NPD indicate that consumers are open to change. They are changing where they

shop for food and staples, increasingly visiting Drug and Convenience Stores, presumably near their homes. They are trying new CPG

brands, due to low and out-of-stock environments.

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Other Economic News of Note for the Automotive Aftermarket

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Finished Lubricant Industry Insights

The Impact of COVID-19

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The Impact of COVID-19 on the Finished Lubricants Industry

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Source: Kline & Company, Apr ‘20

•At the beginning of 2020 and pre-C-19, Kline’s forecast for the U.S. PVL, CVL, and IND lubricants industry was no overall volumetric growth. •As a result of Kline’s industry knowledge and its evolving analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using a proprietary four-stage impact and three-scenario modeling assessment for each automotive and industrial lubricants consuming sector, Kline estimates an overall volumetric decline of between 10% and 17%.•This represents losses of 239 to 418mm gals, depending on the depth and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.


The Impact of COVID-19 on the Finished Lubricants Industry: Passenger Vehicle Lubricants (Consumer)

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Kline’s Four Stages of COVID-19

Stage 1 or Pre-Crisis

Stage 2 or Lock-down

Stage 3 or Recovery

Stage 4 or Post-Crisis

• Based on Kline’s assumptions of market conditions, the U.S. PVL market segment and its component sectors combined are operating at <50% of their pre-crisis, normal consumption level due to C-19.

• From calculations for Scenarios #1, #2, and #3 based on the number of weeks for Stage 2 and the rate of post-crisis recovery, Kline expects PVL lubricant demand to contract at between 15%-24% in 2020.

• On a volume basis, potential losses ranging from 90mm to 157mm gallons can be expected.


The Impact of COVID-19 on the Finished Lubricants Industry: Passenger Vehicle Lubricants (Consumer)• The United States is primarily a do-it-for-me market, with Quick Lubes as its leading sector, accounting for 26% of total U.S.

PVL demand, followed by FWS (Franchised Workshops / New Car Dealers) at 23%. • The Quick Lubes sector is represented by national and regional company owned-operated and franchised locations

operating under such familiar names as Jiffy Lube, Valvoline Instant Oil Change, and Take 5 Oil Change, along with privately owned, single-site local neighborhood locations across the country.

• While still operational and deemed as essential businesses offering services important to the economy and general public, these eight PVL sectors are all operating under similar and different conditions and are therefore operating at below normal 100% consumption levels based on Kline’s assumptions.

• Moreover, given the stay-at-home guidelines and reduced vehicle usage, the number of daily lube, oil, and filter changes performed by installers is a fraction of normal levels; retail sales of lubricants for do-it-yourselfers and commercial sales byretailers to installers is equally depressed.

• The FWS sector is doing whatever it can to keep service bays operating and the business generating revenue despite the shuttered showrooms and few, if any, new vehicles being sold during C-19 Stage 2. Examples include modifying business hours to accommodate customers, vehicle pick-up and drop-off concierge services, expanded use of social media, collaboration with local chambers of commerce, servicing all makes and models, and even such unique promotions as a free roll of toilet paper with a regular oil change.

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The Impact of COVID-19 on the Finished Lubricants Industry:Commercial Vehicle Lubricants



Stage 2 or Lock-down

Stage 3 or Recovery


• Based on Kline’s assumptions of market conditions, the U.S. CVL market segment and its component sectors combined are operating closer to the high end of between 50%-74% of their normal level due to C-19.

• From calculations for scenarios #1, #2, and #3 based on the number of weeks for Stage 2 and the rate of post-crisis recovery, Kline expects CVL lubricant demand to contract at between 7% and 14% in 2020.

• At-risk volume losses range from 39mm to 78mm gallons for CY 2020.



The Impact of COVID-19 on the Finished Lubricants Industry:Commercial Vehicle Lubricants• The U.S. market for commercial vehicle lubricants (CVL) is nearly evenly split overall into sectors that operate vehicles and equipment in On-Highway and Off-Highway applications.

While the current factors impacting the PVL segment exist in the CVL segment, e.g. stay-at-home guidelines, fleets and trucking companies operating both nationally and regionally are still open for business and deemed as essential businesses providing everyday and critical products to anxious consumers. Moreover, while fleets are enduring the same staffing issues as FWS and quick lubes, these businesses are expected to maintain, as close as possible, their normal consumption levels.

• The For-hire Fleets sector, which accounts for 23% of total U.S. PVL demand, includes large truckload (TL) companies such as Stevens Transport, less-than-truckload (LTL) companies such as Old Dominion, and equally important, owner-operators shipping products coast-to-coast and to local communities still operating trucks and equipment. Given the immediate need for medical equipment and supplies to combat C-19, it’s critical for the for-hire fleets sector to continue to maintain normal preventive maintenance (PM) schedules/programs of its vehicles and perhaps even reduce oil drain intervals to ensure the vehicles avoid any unplanned downtime. As such, Kline expects that the for-hire fleets sector is operating at >75% of its normal, pre-crisis consumption level and demand for heavy-duty motor oil (HDMO) and other CVL lubricants will remain strong during 2020.

• Lubricants suppliers seeking to solidify their supply relationships with this critical CVL sector should review their product and service portfolio to ensure that customers are gaining maximum advantage to realize sustainable and reliable up-time operation of their entire fleet.

• The Lease-Rental sector has many dimensions, from providing leased equipment to construction companies, offering rental vehicles to business and leisure travelers at airport locations, and leasing H-D vehicles used by for-hire and private fleets. Given the impact of C-19, each of these sub-sectors is under different stress factors and combined, based on Kline’s assessment, the lease-rental sector overall is operating at between 50%-74% of its normal level.

• For lubricants suppliers seeking to assess and prioritize how best to serve this sector, Kline suggests targeting the companies that lease vehicles and equipment and offer PM service to over-the-road (OTR) trucking fleets and, similar to the for-hire fleets sector, ensure their entire product and service offering is delivering maximum value to the leasing company and, in turn, its customers.

• The transportation sector is experiencing reduced demand for its services provided by, for example, tour bus operators, school bus operators, and ride sharing/hailing providers due to mandatory stay-at-home guidelines, school closures, and reduced business travel and leisure activities. Given these factors, Kline expects the sector is operating at <50% of its normal consumption level.

• Agriculture is the largest CVL consuming sector in the United States at 27% of the total and an important contributor to the health and sustainability of the overall U.S. economy. Despite all the negative factors associated with C-19, the nation’s farming industry must operate at normal levels, as seasonal preparation, planting, and harvesting activities cannot be delayed, postponed, or compromised. As such, the expectation is that mobile and stationary farming vehicles, machinery, and equipment must still be maintained according to existing OEM and owner-operator PM schedules to ensure reliable and continuous operating rates throughout the four stages of C-19. Kline’s assessment of the agriculture sector is that it is operating at a near-normal consumption level of >75% and will continue to demand CVL products such as HDMO and tractor hydraulic fluid, among other products and services from suppliers.



The Impact of COVID-19 on the Finished Lubricants Industry:Industrial Lubricants



Stage 2 or Lock-downStage 3 or Recovery


•Overall, based on Kline’s assumptions of market conditions, the U.S. IND market segment and its component sectors combined are operating closer to the high end of between 50%-74% of their normal, pre-crisis consumption level due to COVID-19. • From calculations for scenarios #1, #2, and #3 based on the number of weeks for Stage 2 and the rate of post-crisis recovery, Kline expects INDUSTRIAL demand to contract at between 8% to 15% in 2020. •Volumetrically, between 102mm to 202mm gallons are at risk for loss in CY 2020.



The Impact of COVID-19 on the Finished Lubricants Industry:Industrial Lubricants• Including process oil, industrial lubricants (IND) demand among the 17 industry sectors researched by Kline accounts for >50% of the over 2.4 B gallons U.S. finished lubricants market. The first three sectors combined account for nearly half of the total IND consumption in the United States and provide critical key components and final products supporting the entire U.S. industrial and automotive economy.

• Announcements from all of the major passenger vehicle OEMs about plant closures and employee furloughs have resulted in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector significantly reducing its demand for rubber tires and related products, ferrous and non-ferrous material, and fabricated metal products; this negatively impacts the sectors producing and delivering these key components. As such, IND demand contraction is spread across many sectors, some able to absorb the loss, others unable.

• However, due to the diverse products produced in each sector and their respective reach, some sectors are able and expected to operate at near-normal operating rates despite the impact of C-19. For example, the medical and healthcare industry is under intense pressure to deal with the exponential growth in patients requiring medical attention for C-19 and, as such, needs an uninterrupted inventory of protective clothing and medical machinery and equipment, among other related products. Therefore, while rubber tire demand is in decline, the rubber and plastic products sector must continue to operate and supply the components and final products to manufacture these critical healthcare products.

• Output of the chemicals and allied products sector, which includes building blocks, components, and ingredients far-reaching into nearly every final product required for our economy to function, is an essential sector and must continue to operate at near-normal rates despite the disruptions caused by C-19. Likewise, electrical equipment and energy transmission, the power generation backbone of the United States, cannot undergo any significant and extended supply interruptions. These three sectors have a strong product demand for process oil including medical grade white oil, synthetic hydraulic fluid, turbine oil, and natural gas engine oil, among many others. As such, based on Kline’s assessment, these sectors are operating at near-normal levels.

• The food processing sector, which accounts for <2% of total IND demand, is a critical industrial sector with manufacturers and suppliers expected to operate at near-normal levels to keep the food pipeline full and retail shelves of the nation’s grocers fully stocked. This sector is unique in that it requires general-purpose industrial oils and fluids as well as specialty, food-grade synthetics such as gear oil, grease, and compressor fluid.

• Lubricants suppliers to this important sector should review their entire product and service portfolio to ensure that it meets the needs of the sector and delivers maximum value, equipment efficiency, and up-time.

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Installed / DIFM Markets

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

DEALERSHIPS

QUICK LUBES

REPAIR SHOPS

TIRE SHOPS

MASS MERCHANT

OTHER SERVICE OUTLET

AUTO PARTS

CAR WASHES

BRAKE / MUFFLER SHOPS

TRANSMISSION SHOPS

GAS STN / C-STORES

BATTERY OUTLETS

DIFM Channel Outlet Share / Change

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Source: NPD’s Car Care Track, DIFM Oil Change Service Buyers, 12ME Mar ‘20 vs. Prior 12M, n = 25K Oil Change Service Buyers

• Dealers held the largest share of total consumer-reported PCMO Oil Change Service transactions in 12 months ending Mar ’20.

• Quick Lubes sustained the heaviest share losses• Tire Shops experienced the largest share gains

Share Change vs. YAGOShare of PCMO Transactions in 12ME Mar ‘20

Results Reflect Consumer Purchase Recall

(1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

DEALERSHIPS TOTAL QUICK LUBES Jiffy Lube All Other Quick Lubes Specialty (T-B-M,Battery, Natl Rep)

Indep Repair Walmart ACC

Share for Top DIFM Channels

1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20

Dealers held the top spot as most recalled service outlet in Q1 ’20, gaining +0.6 share points (vs. Q1 ‘19), Fast Fits / T-B-M experienced the strongest share gains. “All Other” Quick Lubes sustained the most significant share loss.

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Source: The NPD Group / Car Care Track, Share of Service Buyers in DIFM, n =31K

Results Reflect Consumer Purchase Recall


Tier 1 Brand Share in Total PCMO (DIFM Oil Change Transactions)

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Source: NPD’s Car Care Track Consumer Panel, n = 25K Oil Change Service Buyers Results Reflect Consumer Purchase Recall

• Pennzoil continues to lead in its share of “Brand selected for Last Oil Change Service” and gained +0.5 share points in the latest annualized view (12ME Mar ‘20).

• Mobil 1 gained +0.9 share points – more than any other major brand.• Castrol again sustained the heaviest share losses of any brand, down -1.1 points (vs. prior 12M).• DIFM Consumer recall for purchase of a specific PCMO brand increased slightly, indicating

greater “Brand” awareness among DIFM consumers.

17.3%

18.8%19.3%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Tier 1 Brand Share in Total PCMO(among DIFM Oil Change Service Buyers - Total U.S.)

Mobil 1 Valvoline Castrol Pennzoil


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Pennzoil Castrol Valvoline Mobil 1 Quaker State Store Brand / PLBL

Havoline Mobil ACDelco Motorcraft Exxon

1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20

PCMO Brand Share Quarterly Trend: All DIFM Outlets

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• In Q1 ‘20, Pennzoil continued to hold the #1 ranked spot across Installed Markets in total PCMO, seeing a mild share loss vs. the previous quarter (Q4 ‘19).

• Mobil 1 appears to be on a downward slide, seeing its share fall both in Q4 ’19 & in Q1 ‘20.• Castrol posted the most significant gain in Q1 ‘20 (vs. its position in Q4 ‘19).

Source: The NPD Group / Car Care Track Data, n = 31K Arrows denote significant movements when compared to previous quarterResults Reflect Consumer Purchase Recall

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Retail / DIY MarketsAuto Parts + Mass Merchant

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For the most recent 12ME period, we see a downturn in total volume after an extended run of flat annualized volume.

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Total Retail Packaged PCMO

24May 20Source: NPD Decision Key Retail Tracking Service

-0.3% 12ME MAR 20vs.12ME MAR 19


PCMO volume (Retail / Packaged) began to slip, starting in Week 10. By Week 13, Total PCMO gallons were down -21% YoY.

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Source: NPD Retail Tracking Service

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Total PCMO Gallons2019

2020


HDEO annualized gallons continue to hover in the ~22M Gallon range and flat vs. 12ME MAR 2019

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TTL Packaged HDEO Rolling 12ME

26May 20Source: NPD Retail Tracker Service

+0.4% 12ME MAR 2020 vs.12ME MAR 2019


HDEO volume (Retail / Packaged) began to slip, starting in Week 10. By Week 13, Total HDEO gallons were down -17% YoY.

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Source: NPD Retail Tracking Service

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Total HDEO Gallons

20192020

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Retail / DIY MarketsConvenience

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Copyright of SOPUS 29Source: IRI’s Unify Reporting through 3/22/20


Motor Oil Gallon Volume Breakdown by Subcategory

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YTD (Jan-Mar ‘20), Overall Motor Oil Category Volume = 4.9mm gallons, down -12.2% / -682mm equivalent gallons • PCMO subcategory is down -12.0% / -548K gallons• HDEO subcategory is down -14.3% / -125K gallons• Small Engine is down -4.5% / -5K gallons• Marine / ATV / Snowmobile is down -9.3% / -4K gallons• Motorcycle accounts for <1% / down -51%

Source: IRI’s Unify Liquid Data for NACS, YTD (Jan-Dec ‘19)

0 1 2 3 4 5

Millions

Motor Oil Gallons by Subcategory - YTD

(0.6) (0.5) (0.4) (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) 0.0

PCMO

HDEO

SMALL ENGINE

MARINE / ATV / SNOW

MOTORCYCLE

Millions

Gallon Vol. Change vs. YAGO


PCMO Gallon Performance by Segment

31

Total YTD PCMO subcategory volume = 4.0mm gallons, down -12.0% ▪ Conventional accounts for 67% of combined PCMO gallons, volume is down -

14% (-440K gallons) and this segment is responsible for 80% of the net decline▪ Full Synthetic accounts for 18% of total volume, driving 40% of net gains▪ Synthetic Blends account for 8%, falling -26%, driving 20% of net volume loss▪ High Mileage is down -2% / -4K gallons▪ Full Syn High Mileage continues to see double-digit growth, accounting for 60%

of net volume gain

Source: IRI’s Unify Liquid Data for NACS, YTD (Jan-Mar ‘20)

PCMO SEGMENT YTD MAR '20 Gals YAGO Gals Vol Chg % Chg YTD Sh YAGO Sh Sh Chg

PCMO - CONVENTIONAL 2,659,576 3,099,583 (440,008) (14.2%) 66.5% 68.1% (1.67)

PCMO - FULL SYNTHETIC 732,684 728,972 3,713 0.5% 18.3% 16.0% 2.29

PCMO - SYNTHETIC BLEND 328,722 441,669 (112,947) (25.6%) 8.2% 9.7% (1.49)

PCMO - HIGH MILEAGE 262,900 267,084 (4,184) (1.6%) 6.6% 5.9% 0.70

PCMO - FULL SYN HIMI 17,532 12,003 5,530 46.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.17

Grand Total 4,001,414 4,549,311 (547,897) (12.0%)


YTD, Total HDEO subcategory gallon volume = 749K, down -14.3%▪ Conventional volume accounts for 95% of the HDEO Subcategory’s

volume, down -14%▪ Full Synthetic now accounts for 3%, down -24%▪ Synthetic Blends hold 2% of total HDMO volume, down -2%, YTD

HDEO Gallon Performance by Segment

Source: IRI’s Unify Liquid Data for NACS, YTD (Jan-Mar ‘20)

HDEO SEGMENT YTD MAR '20 Gals YAGO Gals Vol Chg % Chg YTD Sh YAGO Sh Sh Chg

HDEO - CONVENTIONAL 708,009 824,549 (116,539) (14.1%) 94.6% 94.4% 0.15

HDEO - FULL SYNTHETIC 23,715 31,369 (7,653) (24.4%) 3.2% 3.6% (0.42)

HDEO - SYNTHETIC BLEND 16,844 17,224 (380) (2.2%) 2.3% 2.0% 0.28

748,568 873,141 (124,573) (14.3%)

“flash” edition q1 ‘20

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