flash flooding across the southern appalachians: an abbreviated climatology with forecasting methods...
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Flash Flooding Across the Southern Appalachians: Flash Flooding Across the Southern Appalachians: An Abbreviated Climatology with Forecasting Methods An Abbreviated Climatology with Forecasting Methods
and Techniquesand Techniques
Anthony D. Phillips, David A. Call, and Jill S. M. ColemanAnthony D. Phillips, David A. Call, and Jill S. M. ColemanDepartment of GeographyDepartment of Geography
Ball State UniversityBall State University
Analyze the spatial and temporal extent of flash floods across the southern Appalachian Mountains
Create a hydroclimatology using credible reports Examine the influences of regional topography and
environmental characteristics (soil type, land use, etc) on the spatial distribution of flash floods
Gather information on the synoptic and mesoscale environments conducive to flash flooding across the region
Residents of the southern mountains are at greater risk due to:– Steep, complex terrain– Rapid accumulation of precipitation– Competition with mountain streams for roads, bridges,
housing, etc.– Mountaintop removal
Previous hydroclimatological research has been limited to individual NWS WFOs (Gaffin and Hotz, 2000; Stonefield and Jackson, 2009).
Thorough, regional analysis will provide a better understanding of the extent of flash floods
Southern Appalachian Mountains:– Mountainous areas south of Mason-Dixon Line (~39.7° N)– Locations within the USGS Appalachian Highlands
physiographic division; namely the Appalachian Plateau, Valley and Ridge, and Blue Ridge provinces
Data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center– Storm Data from 1950 to 2010
Focuses on events after the Modernization and Restructuring (MAR) of the NWS in the mid-1990’s– Storm reports and verification– Abbreviated climatology: January 1, 1996 to December 31,
2010
Storm Data reports listed as either “flash flood” or “flash flooding”
Multiple events with similar/exact dates and locations were consolidated into a single event
July 2007
July 2003
Frequency of events per year Noticeable variations, especially
between drought (’99, ‘07) and non-drought years (‘03)
Number of events that occurred during each month Frequency of events increases dramatically starting in
May– Substantial decrease in October– Secondary peak in January
Events per time of day divided into 1-hr increments Number of events increases during afternoon/early
night hours
Future research will include examining the synoptic and mesoscale environments favorable for flash flood events across the southern Appalachians– Forecasting methods specific to the region
Additional spatial statistics such as average nearest neighbor and Geographically Weighted Regression– Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) will examine
the relationships between prior flash flood events and other environmental characteristics across the region
Expansion of the study area to include the eastern United States
4,938 unique flash flood reports from 1996 to 2010 71 fatalities and 64 injuries As expected, greater number of events during warm season months and
during afternoon/overnight hours Higher fatality rates in regions with higher mean percent slope Future work will include:
– Additional statistical tests– Flash flood forecasting techniques
Results will assist meteorologists
and hydrologists in forecasting
flash flood events
For more information:
Anthony Phillips
http://www.wx4sno.com