flexicurity and youth employment in europe - dea.nu kongshøj madsen... · from employment to...
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Centre for Labour Market Research,
Aalborg University, Denmark (CARMA)
Flexicurity and
youth employment in Europe
Per Kongshøj Madsen
Centre for Labour Market Research (CARMA)
Aalborg University, Denmark
www.carma.aau.dk
Conference:
IS FLEXICURITY THE RIGHT MEDICINE FOR THE EUROPEAN YOUTH?
Copenhagen, January 10, 2012
CARMA
• Centre for Labour Market Research
• An interdisciplinary research centre at the Department
of Political Science, Aalborg University
• A staff of around 20
• Research topics: wage formation, industrial relations,
life-long learning and (comparative) labour market
policy
• Flexicurity-research
Overview
• Youth, the labour market and the
crisis
• The blend of flexibility and security:
flexicurity
• Is ”flexicurity in Danish” beneficial
to youth on the labour market?
• Which are the relevant flexicurity
policies for young peoble?
NEETs in the EU
The basics of flexicurity
• The starting point: Flexibility and security are
not contradictions, but can be mutually
supportive
The basics of flexicurity
• Why then all the fuss about flexicurity? – A new perspective on transitions and security
– Attractive to a wide range of political actors
• Against both common sense and mainstream
economic theory
• The two icons of flexicurity – Wilthagen matrix
– Danish golden triangle
The Wilthagen Matrix
Jobsecurity
(keeping your
job)
Income security
(unemployment
benefits)
Employment
security
(getting a new
job)
Combination
security
(work-life
balance)
Numerical
flexibility (hire
and fire)
Functional
flexibility
(between tasks)
Working time
flexibility
Wage flexibility
Source: T. Wilthagen & Tros (2004)
Examples of flexicurity policies
Putting countries in boxes
Jobsecurity Income
security
Employment
security
Combination
security
Numerical
flexibility (hire
and fire)
Denmark
(for decades)
Denmark
(since1990s)
Functional
flexibility
(between tasks)
Germany
Working time
flexibility Germany
(in times of
crisis)
Wage flexibility
The Danish Golden Triangle
Flexible
labour
market
Unemploy-
ment
insurance Active
LMP
The basic
Flexicurity
nexus
•Low job security
•High job-to-job mobility
•Rapid structural change
Income
security Employment
security
Educational
policy AND
MORE!.
30 %
20 % 10 %
Danish youth on the job
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Hungary
Greece
Italy
Slovakia
Spain
Belgium
Czech Republic
Poland
Portugal
France
Ireland
European Union (27 )
Slovenia
Sweden
Finland
Germany
United Kingdom
Norway
Austria
Denmark
Netherlands
2010
Employment rate
15-24 years
Percent of age group
Eurostat, LFS
Youth on the Danish labour market 1
• High employment rate – Reflects the general level of the employment
rate
– Cheap labour on a labour market with a tradition
for seniority wages
Youth on the Danish labour market 1
• High employment rate – Reflects the general level of employment
– Cheap labour on a labour market with a tradition
for seniority wages
– ALMP targeted at young persons (early
activation plus extra resources)
– Cultural values, tradition for economic og social
indepencence of the young
Leaving home
Chiuri & Boca, 2009
Leaving home
Chiuri & Boca, 2009
Youth on the Danish labour market 1
• High employment rate – Reflects the general level of employment
– Cheap labour on a labour market with a tradition
for seniority wages
– ALMP targeted at young persons (early
activation plus extra resources)
– Cultural values, tradition for economic og social
indepencence of the young
– A flexible labour market
The flexible Danish labour market
• Low level of employment protection of
insiders
• No seniority protection in dismissal
• A high level of job-to-job mobility and many
job openings
Less age segmentation on the labour market
Protection of ordinary employees 2008
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Portuga
l
Germ
any
Net
herla
nds
Swed
en
France
Finla
nd
Spain
Korea
Gre
ece
Nor
way
Austria
Poland
Belgiu
m Italy
Irela
nd
Den
mark
Uni
ted K
ingdom
Uni
ted S
tate
s
EP
L-in
dica
tor
Source:Venn, D. (2009), "Legislation, Collective Bargaining andEnforcement: Updating the OECD Employment
ProtectionIndicators", OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 89, OECD publishing,
Job tenure
The Commission: Job Mobility in the European Union, 2008
A comparative analysis
• Comparing labour market mobility in the Nordic
countries and the Mediterranean countries
• Eurostat’s Labour Force Survey
• Looking at:
Employed
Inactive Unemployed
Source: Part of the GUSTO-project
financed by EU’s 7th framework
programme
From employment to
unemployment, 2008 To Unemployment Denmark *DK Finland *FI Norway *NO Sweden *SE Greece *GR Italy *IT Portugal *PT
Age
16-24 0,86 ns 1,33 ns 1,99 ns 2,14 2,01 2,33 1,66
25-34 0,96 ns 1,00 ns 1,71 ns 0,99 ns 1,73 1,84 1,53
35-44 1,10 ns 1,15 ns 1,17 ns 0,65 1,39 1,25 1,09 ns
55-63 1,78 1,72 1,26 ns 0,83 ns 0,80 0,86 1,46
45-54 (ref.) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Gender
Male 0,69 0,85 ns 0,89 ns 1,03 ns 0,57 0,64 0,76
Female (ref.) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Marital status
Widowed, divorced, separated 1,33 ns 1,62 1,73 ns 1,10 ns 1,50 1,48 1,26
Single 2,24 1,85 2,64 1,73 1,77 1,49 1,31
Married . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Education
Primary 1,53 2,96 4,55 1,98 1,81 1,66 1,66
Secondary 1,22 ns 1,84 2,20 1,88 1,36 1,10 1,15 ns
Tertiary (ref.) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Place of birth
Other EU 1,53 ns 1,06 ns 1,29 ns 0,78 ns 1,37 1,21 ns
Other 2,23 3,08 2,40 1,87 0,91 ns 1,31
Natives (ref) . . . . . . . . . . . .
Proffesional status
Self employed 0,60 0,19 0,39 0,68 ns 0,28 0,48 0,45
Employee (ref.) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Industry
Aggriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing and mining 1,05 ns 1,13 ns 1,86 ns 0,21 0,77 1,07 ns 1,30
Construction and supply 0,71 ns 1,24 ns 1,00 ns 1,04 ns 0,60 1,54 0,92 ns
Wholesale and retail trade 0,80 ns 0,81 ns 0,85 ns 0,72 ns 0,78 1,00 ns 0,69
Hotels and restaurants 2,05 1,23 ns 1,37 ns 1,04 ns 1,36 1,82 1,20
Transport, storage and communication 0,57 0,66 1,04 ns 0,66 ns 0,82 ns 0,91 ns 0,71
Finance, real estate, renting and business 0,65 1,29 ns 1,53 ns 1,31 ns 0,66 0,85 0,72
Education, Public administration and defence 0,60 0,83 ns 0,71 ns 0,78 0,44 0,37 0,40
Health and social work 0,66 0,84 ns 0,47 0,42 0,41 0,48 0,39
Other social and personal services 0,93 ns 1,97 0,92 ns 0,91 ns 0,88 1,15 0,69
Manufaturing (ref.) . . . . . . .
Observations from
multivariate analysis I
• E -> U: Age does not matter in the North, but in
the South (In North a labour market less
segmented by age (tenure) and the dominance
of temporary work for young persons in the
South)
• E -> I: Age matters in the North, but not in the
South (In the North young persons are more
likely to combine work and study; they also
become economically independent at a
younger age)
Observations from
multivariate analysis II
• U -> E: Higher odds for young people in all
countries (Once unemployed older workers
have a disadvantage)
• U -> I: Higher odds for young people in the
North than in the South (Unemployed youth
moving into education, also as a part of ALMP)
Observations from
multivariate analysis III
• I -> U: Very high odds in the South, but also in
DK and N (Difficult transitions from school to
work)
• I -> E: No clear pattern. S an extreme case.
Flexicurity policies for young persons
• Support labour market mobility in
general – thus creating more job
openings also for the young
– Economic growth!
– Golden triangle can give some inspiration to
lower the fences …
Flexicurity policies for young persons
• Support critical transitions for young
persons – A flexible educational system (without blind alleys)
– Monitoring and counselling of young persons from
secondary school to vocational and further
education
– Traineeships integrated into education (formal or
informal)
– Early intervention in case of unemployment
(reducing scar-effects)