NRC FLIS annual meeting November 2013, Copenhagen

FLIServices expert meeting11-12 June 2014, CopenhagenFLIServices updateAnita Pirc Velkavrh

Latest developments of FLIServicesPrioritised tools in January-June 2014:

Live CatallogueUse of forward-looking information in policy (FLIP)

2Prioritised tools in June December 2014:

Trends and horizon scanning toolFLIS cooperationGlossary

3Long term interest of countries for development of FLIServicesFLIServicesIssueCountries with longer term interest to support the development contextFLIServices added value, aims and user friendliness from different users perspectives Austria, Czech Republic, Kosovo under the UN Security Council Resolution 1244/99, Romania, SlovakiaFLIServices links to national and other relevant networks and web sites Austria, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Romania toolsFLIServices toolsUSFLIP/BlossomNetherlands, Austria, Hungary, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Romania, Slovakia, SwitzerlandHorizon scanning toolNetherlands, Portugal, Czech RepublicGMTPortugal, Belgium, Czech RepublicIndicatorsHungary, BelgiumUncertaintiesNetherlands, PortugalWild cards and emerging issuesNetherlands, Portugal, Czech RepublicScenariosNetherlands, Hungary, Czech RepublicMethods/toolsNetherlands, Czech Republic, AustriaLive Catalogue of needs and offers for forward-looking informationAustria, Hungary, Belgium, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Kosovo under the UN Security Council Resolution 1244/99, Romania, AlbaniaGlossary for FLIS/EIONET community discuss links to national glossariesAustria, Belgium, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Hungary, Portugal, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Kosovo under the UN Security Council Resolution 1244/99, Romania, Albania, Slovakia, MontenegroDesign of the portal and elements to be eventually presented to publicHungary, Austria, Romania, Albania useLink to SoEHungary, Belgium Link to strategies, EU directivesRegional cooperationAustria, Hungary44Meetings 2014FLIServices meeting, 11-12 June 2014, Copenhagen

Live Catalogue final comments, main discussion on FLIP; FLIS trends, Cooperation, Glossary for information and preparation for the November meeting ; new activity FLIS entry pageFLIServices meeting, November 2014, Copenhagen Live Catalogue and FLIP final approval; main discussion on FLIS trends, Cooperation, Glossary ; FLIS entry page

NRC FLIS annual meeting: info on project status and approval of key documents

Webinars, web meetings?

55This meeting:Approval of processComments to existing version

This meeting:Comments to version 2

Live Catalogue6

Live CatalogueThis meeting:Explanation of new conceptApproval of processComments to Version 2

FLIP

7

Use of forward-looking information in policy (FLIP)FLIP functions1 register any study that relates to experience in the use of FLI/foresight in policy

Blossom studies are also supported

Search according to policy cycle phase(s), Blossom approach used, crosscutting themes:Communication of results, Foresight methods usedGovernance practicePolicy recommendations forming Priorities setting Successes in use of FLI in policyBarriers in use of FLI in policy

89

This meeting:Approval of process: priority for November meeting (version 1)Comments

10

FLIS Cooperation

11

FLIS Trends and horizon scanningExisting version 1

This meeting:Discussion on concept and main functionsApproval of process: priority for November meeting (Version 2)

12

FLIS GlossaryThis meeting:Discussion on main functionsApproval of process: priority for November meeting Glossary 13

FLIS entry page

This meeting:Comments and ideas to the proposal14

THANK YOU15

Live CatalogueLive Catalogue of needs and offers for forward-looking information will support communicating and networking within the EIONET NRC FLIS community on the topics of interest to the community, such as projects, training, reports, requests for collaboration, tenders, open calls, contracts, support documents, articles and news.16FLIS CooperationFLIS cooperation tool will provide the platform for collaboration and sharing of information of group of interested countries on specific topic or region (for example interesting tender, SOER 2015 regional fiche)

Various elements of FLIS platform can be relevant for FLIS collaboration (ie. LivCat needs and offers, trends, scenarios, indicators) and there are specific information developed only for specific cooperation

17Who can collaborate? (EIONET only)

How to describe information in FLIS platform to be able to search for relevance to specific cooperation? (ie. spatial scale)People should be able to put in relevant info they find elsewhere in FLIS platform.

How to describe specific FLIS Cooperation activity? (scope, aim, parties, time, funds..)

18FLIS Cooperation- QuestionsEntry page:Lists of different cooperations established:Cooperation 1 (selected metadata visible)Cooperation 219FLIS Cooperation -structureFLIS Cooperation -structure20In LiveCat registered offer for cooperation in the project on Nature conservation foresight4 countries expressed interest:Pt, At, Nl, SiRegister Cooperation in FLIS Cooperation tool:list of countries, theme, policy use/cycleDescription

Add content:With the links to other tools various type of information form FLIServices can be added (FLIP, HS)Outputs of cooperationUse of forward-looking information in policy (FLIP)Objective of this tool is to transparently present various aspects of interest of FLIS community in relation to using FLI in policy, methods and tools, communication of results of foresight studies, governance practice, forming of policy recommendations, priority settings successes and barriers in using FLI in policy.It will also support Blossom studies (Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods).

21FLIP tool functionsRegistration of studies metadata

Registration of products, activities in relation to registered studies.

Rich search options, organised by policy cycle and various crosscutting themes

2223

FLIS trends and horizon scanning tool - objecitveGroup of services that supports sharing of knowledge and information related to trends analyses and horizon scanning. Tool for trends identification and description (horizon scanning, incl GMTs) will support process of identification of trends relevant for European environment, their continuous management, updating and identification of new trends from the countries and the EEA.

Definition:A systematic process of analysis, identification and categorization of strategic information seeking to identify Drivers of Change present in the external environment, with the aim of better understanding it, its interactions, and how it influences the behavior of the actors it comprises, in order to identify critical issues, risks and opportunities, emerging issues or disruptions. The ultimate goal is to improve the ability of any organization to anticipate and prepare for new challenges. This strategic information appears initially in the form of drivers of change, which can be classified into several categories. For the purposes of this definition the following five categories of Drivers of Change shall be considered: Megatrends, Trends, Uncertainties, Wild Cards and Weak Signals.

24. A systematic process of analysis, identification and categorization of strategic information seeking to identify Drivers of Change present in the external environment, with the aim of better understanding it, its interactions, and how it influences the behavior of the actors it comprises, in order to identify critical issues, risks and opportunities, emerging issues or disruptions. The ultimate goal is to improve the ability of any organization to anticipate and prepare for new challenges. This strategic information appears initially in the form of drivers of change, which can be classified into several categories. For the purposes of this definition the following five categories of Drivers of Change shall be considered: Megatrends, Trends, Uncertainties, Wild Cards and Weak Signals.

Horizon scanning is the act of gathering new insights that may point us towards affirming or discrediting existing trends and developments as well as identify new and emerging trends and developments which are on the margins of our current thinking, but which will impact on our lives in the future.

24Trends tool - componentstype of information to fulfil the purposeCurrent elementsDrivers of change :Megatrends, Trends, Uncertainties, Wild Cards andWeak Signals.RisksOpportunities Emerging issues Disruptions

Global megatrendsTrendsIndicatorsUncertaintiesWild cardsWeak signalsScenarios?25Trends tool- functions Users can register following categories of FLIGlobal megatrends, Trends, Indicators, Uncertainties, Wild cards, Weak signals(to be revised)

Users can identify interlinkages/relationships between these information categories:For example: GMT 3 relates to Trend 1 (which includes also some indicators, or uncertainties..)Trend 2 ..Indicator 1Inidcator 2Uncertanty 1Users can identify cause-effect relationships (This function is to be developed)

Users can see other work done and use it to build upon it for own use or add a new one (trend, indicator..)

Reach search functions.

26FLIS GlossaryFLIS glossary:DefinitionBased on (sources..)Examples of use

Other glossaries

FLIS tools: marker with all words for which definition in glossaries exist (click-on)27 FLIS glossary is a basic service which will support definition of terms to be used by NRC FLIS (and in EIONET) and also enable visibility and comparison with other existing definitions.

BackcastingSource:Glossary of terms used in futures studies (Oxford project)Rome, 26 February 2014

Definition proposed: The process of working backwards from a possible future to determine what needs to happen to make this future unfold.

Note: We envision sustainable intensification of agriculture feeding the world population in 2050 without jeopardizing natural resources and the environment for coming generations. Backcasting identifies what needs to happen to get there in terms of policies and international agreements, trade, behavioural changes, technologies and practices, capacity development, etc.Illustration/reference: See examples of the use of backcasting in Briefs 03, 17 and 19 published in the GFAR series The futures of Agriculture at http://www.egfar.org/our-work/shaping-future-together/global-foresight-hub/publications See also The Roads from Rio+20 at http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2012-roads-from-rio-pathways-to-achieve-global-sustainability-goals-by-2050_0.pdf Wangel J. (2011) Exploring social structures and agency in backcasting studies for sustainable development, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(5): 872-882. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.007. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162511000588 Carlsson-Kanyamaa A., Dreborga K.H., Mollb H.C., Padovan D. (2008) Participative backcasting: A tool for involving stakeholders in local sustainability planning. Futures 40(1): 34-46

28THANK YOU29

Which services will we develop in 2013-2014-2015?Group of services that support trends detection and description (horizon scanning, incl GMTs) will support process of identification of trends relevant for European Environment, their continuous management, updating and identification of new trends from the countries and EEA.

Live Catalogue of needs and offers for FLI will support sharing of skills, good practices, methodological tips and other activities (like projects development).

Another group of services will be linked to USe of Forward-Looking Information for Policy (USFLIP). They will support activities developed under the project Blossom (Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods) and other approaches and processes when identification of use of FLi in policy cycle is collected, evaluated and reported. It will cover countries studies and collate in European wide crosscutting assessment.

Glossary: is a basic service which will support definition of terms to be used by NRC FLIS (and in EIONET) and also enable visibility and comparison with other existing definitions.

30Answers to questionnaire on FLIServicesComments are based on the country experience and expert judgement:

Summary and outcomesHorizon scanning (GMTs, trends, wild cards..) and other tools (indicators, scenarios and methods/toolsBLOSSOMLivCatUse of frameworks DPSIR, STEEP others.Many detailed comments received because countries implemented Blossom recentlyWell perceived, most answersMany things to be clarified: detailed description, relationships etc.Name of the tool Blossom (Use of FLI in policy making)Case study?

Better understood, since is based on the experienceIdentify common fields and consistency of fields across all toolsDetailed description needed for each sectionSome conflicting answersDifferentiations of tools clusters (HS, scenarios, indicators..)Some more information on application practice in policy makingSearch versus filter3131Blossom meeting17-18 June 2013, Copenhagen

Informing about the practice in using FLI in policy making (Austria, UK)

Informing about the practice in implementing current (2012/2013) Blossom studies and lessons learned (Hungary, Romania, Portugal)

Informing about the state of the BLOSSOM service and first round of testing (EEA)

32Blossom meeting - conclusionsThere is the need for more knowledge on the impact of forward-looking information (FLI) for policies and its management, coordination mechanisms and exchange of practices to better tackle trade offs, capacity building and training measures, networking database. Workshops/seminars on impacts to policy making case studies (incl Blossom), approaches..Blossom shows application potential for strategic coordination ie. policies, strategies, regulation and for ex ante policy mechanisms, ie. SEA, EIA

FLI is a vehicle to improve dialogue between actors in policy making. Communication aspect is very important:Workshop on how to engage policy makers (how to accommodate language, prevent misunderstanding, cultural differences, engage academia, linearity perceived by policy makers, understanding uncertainty, power of FL projects overcome mentality I will if you will)

3333Examples of national situations in using forward looking information in State of the environment reporting showed diversity of needs and current practices in countries and opened many issues for discussion. FLIServices can offer to improve the current practices and respond to the needs of countries.(the means for keeping continuity and enhancing institutional memory..)Countries expressed the need for a cook book to serve countries when starting the process of inclusion of outlooks in SoE report.

Planning: we are lagging behind the schedule which we set in December 2012. Not to continue with the same approach, more stable, dedicated and operational commitment is needed, also in longer term5 country studies will be ready for testing Mid-September (Switzerland, Romania, Hungary, Check Republic, Portugal?)

BLOSSOM services tool: clarification of the purpose of the tool and needs from the users were collectedBlossom meeting - conclusions, continu.34In the discussion of the Blossom tool was expressed needs form the user side what does tool need to encompass (which bits of information and functions), information interesting for external user. Users of Blossom information are distinguishes between high politicians, policy makers, experts and all of them are interested in different information and also detail of the presentation. Some issues of interest to draw form Blossom studies are identification of key issues, methodologies used. This implies that follow up analyse after Blossom study completion are also needed so on European level as on national level.

34FLIServices meeting19-20 June 2013, Copenhagen

Sharing of experience within the FLIServices project and other experiences from countries (Slovakia, Switzerland, Portugal)Informing about state of development of FLIServices tools (EEA)Collecting comments from countries on tools developmentDeciding on elements which are of crucial importance for functioning of tools for countries

3535Current development of FLIS tools was presented and results of the first test. Discussion showed the need to improve structuring of forward-looking information to apply for tools. It was concluded that a questionnaire will be sent to countries after the workshop to provide EEA with their needs and comments for steering further development of tools

Importance of glossary was pointed out again (some terms are almost impossible to translate in national languages) and the need for scenarios catalogue to collect available future studies in the country. The first set of 10 definitions for glossary was prepared by Muguel Guerra (Portugal)

Capacity building (IT related and non- IT) was again stressed as it is obvious that experts cant respond to the needs of policy makers if they themselves dont have capacities.

FLIServices meeting conclusions36The role of countries in FLIServices development would be to participate at the respective meetingscomment on the outcomes and tools developed, test the tools, i.e. introducing countries specific information in the tool (testing does not mean in any way publishing the information)offering best practice or ideas on how to enhance the quality and usability of the tools.

The EEA will bear the costs for development of tools, manage development process and will coordinate activities.

FLIServices meeting conclusions37FLIServices meeting25 November pm -26 November pm 2013, Copenhagen, 1,5 days

exchange of countries practices (Belgium/Flanders, Romania)shaping the content of Blossom analyses (countries vs. crosscutting)practising prioritised FLIServices tools, preparing and deciding on operational phase in 2014 (LivCat, Blossom, GMT- trends-indicators)

38FLIServices definitionFLIServices is a web-based platform for knowledge sharing in the forward-looking information domain, developed to support workflow and publication, with the following characteristics:it is demand driven, controlled by network, IT facilitated and technologically independent. It will deliver services that make quality assured forward looking information easily accessible to the Network and eventually to users outside the EIONET.Technologically independent

39Long term interest of countries for development of FLIServicesAnswers received:Austria Ana JakilHungary Szandra Szomor Netherlands Ed DammersPortugal - Miguel Guerra Belgium Marleen Van Steertegem FYR of Macedonia Risto Jordanovski Czech Republic- Miroslav HavranekKosovo*- Afrim Berisha *under the UN Security Council Resolution 1244/994040Long term interest of countries for development of FLIServicesFLIServicesIssueCountries with longer term interest to support the development contextFLIServices added value, aims and user friendliness from different users perspectives Austria, Czech Republic, Kosovo under the UN Security Council Resolution 1244/99, Romania, SlovakiaFLIServices links to national and other relevant networks and web sites Austria, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Romania toolsFLIServices toolsUSFLIP/BlossomNetherlands, Austria, Hungary, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Romania, Slovakia, SwitzerlandHorizon scanning toolNetherlands, Portugal, Czech RepublicGMTPortugal, Belgium, Czech RepublicIndicatorsHungary, BelgiumUncertaintiesNetherlands, PortugalWild cards and emerging issuesNetherlands, Portugal, Czech RepublicScenariosNetherlands, Hungary, Czech RepublicMethods/toolsNetherlands, Czech Republic, AustriaLive Catalogue of needs and offers for forward-looking informationAustria, Hungary, Belgium, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Kosovo under the UN Security Council Resolution 1244/99, Romania, AlbaniaGlossary for FLIS/EIONET community discuss links to national glossariesAustria, Belgium, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Hungary, Portugal, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Kosovo under the UN Security Council Resolution 1244/99, Romania, Albania, Slovakia, MontenegroDesign of the portal and elements to be eventually presented to publicHungary, Austria, Romania, Albania useLink to SoEHungary, Belgium Link to strategies, EU directivesRegional cooperationAustria, Hungary41Purpose and structure of the questionnaire on FLIS toolQuestionnaire on the structure and fields description of FLIS tools (July-August 2013)

Purpose:to identify functionalities for each tool according to needs, workflow and input-output elementsto be enhance development process (faster and more to the point of the needs)to identify common elements

Structure:For each tool to suggest:Registration part:Fields to be filled in:mandatory ones, needs for search/filtering issuesdescription of fieldsRestrictions needsAttachments types

Outputs/results partKey products/elements, Restrictions needsType of documents to be uploaded (graphs, text box, files, photos..)

42 15 questionnaires completed 6 on BLOSSOM (Austria, Hungary, Portugal, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia )

4 on Horizon scanning (GMTs, trends, wild cards..) and other tools (indicators, scenarios and methods/tools (Czech Republic, Portugal, Belgium, Slovakia)

5 on LivCat (Czech Republic, Hungary, Belgium, Slovakia, Romania)

Answers to questionnaire on FLIS tools43Answers to questionnaire on FLIS toolsComments are based on the country experience and expert judgement:

Tools clusters to be rechecked (HS, indicators, methods/tools..)DPSIR framework was accepted, but STEEP needs to be supplemented with wider range of possibilitiesCrosschecking of fields to avoid overlaps and adjust to agreed concept/structure framework Descriptions of fields - commented but not given proposalsSome countries provided very good and detailed comments which will be taken up in the development phase Some answers were conflicting and decision has to be made which line to takeVery little on description of the field

Name of Blossom tool was questioned (to include also non-Blossom studies)Some fields on application for policy makers were proposedMore comments received on Liv Catalogue and Blossom as there is more current expertise

Some misunderstandings (probably because of unclear questionnaire)

4444Answers to questionnaire on FLIS tools45