flood risk assessment (hitoshi baba)

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Flood Risk Assessment Standard tools for DM and CCA Hitoshi BABA Hitoshi BABA Ph.D. Environment and Resource Engineering Senior Advisor Japan International Cooperation Agency

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Page 1: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Flood Risk AssessmentStandard tools for DM and CCA

Hitoshi BABAHitoshi BABAPh.D. Environment and Resource Engineering

Senior AdvisorJapan International Cooperation Agencyp p g y

Page 2: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Standard Tools for Disaster Management d Cli Ch Ad iand Climate Change Adaptation

Need to be capable for monitoring and analyzingNeed to be capable for monitoring and analyzing• Increasing Risk of Water Disasters

k i bli ili i i• Weakening Public Resilience against Disasters• Current Capacity of Disaster Management• Strategy of adapting DM to Changing Environment

Page 3: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

20042004

• China• India• Philippine

Page 4: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

20052005

• Pakistan• China• USA

(Hurricane(HurricaneKatrina)

Page 5: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

20062006

• Philippine• China• Ethiopia• IndonesiaIndonesia

• East Africa(Drought)(Drought)

Page 6: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

20072007

• India• China• UK• BangladeshBangladesh

(cyclone Sidr)• Indonesia

Page 7: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

20082008

• Myanmar (cyclone Nargis)

• Australia (drought)

Page 8: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

20092009

• Pakistan• Taipei, Taiwan• Philippine• UlaanbaatarUlaanbaatar,

Mongolia

Page 9: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

20102010• Latin America• Brazil

• Colombia Fuente: El HeraldoColombia Fuente: El Heraldo

Page 10: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

20112011

• East Africa (Drought)

• USA (Flood, Drought, Tornado)

Page 11: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Global trend of Flood and DroughtGlobal trend of Flood and Drought

Number of natural disasters registered in EMDAT, 1970 – 2009,

htt // d t b /d t bhttp://www.emdat.be/database

Page 12: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:

• Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive, g– Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.

Page 13: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Standard for …..Flood risk assessment in Jakarta

Inundation Simulation in Ciliwung and West Floodway

Flood risk assessment in Jakarta

WBC

K.Cideng

Pluit Pump Station

Page 14: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Standard for …..Flood risk assessment in the PhilippinesFlood risk assessment in the Philippines

Page 15: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Standard for …..Flood risk assessment in ThailandFlood risk assessment in Thailand

Page 16: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Standard for …..Flood risk Assessment in the PhilippinesFlood risk Assessment in the Philippinesconsidering Climate Change Adaptation

Page 17: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Standard for …..Earthquake risk assessment in Metro ManilaEarthquake risk assessment in Metro Manila

Page 18: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:

• Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive, g– Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.

• Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning– Hydro-meteorological observation Social and economic stats etc– Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats, etc.

Page 19: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

To tackle against increasing Flood Risks,To tackle against increasing Flood Risks,

• Need risk assessment, using appropriate Flood Models, g pp p• IFAS (Integrated Flood Analysis System)

Flood Forecasting System Using Global Satellite Rainfall1. Utilization of satellite-based rainfall as an input dataz f f p2. Implementation of Distributed run-off analysis engines3. Function of creating run-off model4. Visualization of flood modeling/forecasting results5 Free distribution5. Free distribution

• Developed by ICHARM (International Center for Water Hazard and Risk Management under the Auspices of UNESCO)

• A concise flood-runoff analysis system for developing countries• A concise flood-runoff analysis system for developing countries• ICHARM conducts training seminars for users to utilize IFAS

Page 20: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)
Page 21: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)
Page 22: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Factors affecting to the increasing riskFactors affecting to the increasing risk

of water disasters, including flood and drought, g g– Changing climate pattern

– Precipitation– Sea level

1980’ Urbanization28.8%                           Jakarta

200850.8% Future 

– Changing watershed condition– Forest and vegetation cover– Urbanization

Prospect75.8%

– Changing vulnerability of people– Moving population– livelihood

Page 23: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Damage potential and DM StrategyDamage potential and DM Strategy• Damage Potential analysis

– Intensity and frequency– Public Resilience against Disasters – Damage assumption– Needs of emergency response– Needs of recovery and reconstructionNeeds of recovery and reconstruction

• Disaster Management Strategy– Risk identification, assessment

• Monitoring, forecasting, hazard and risk mapping, information systems, individual and societal surveysand societal surveys

– Risk reduction• Land use and spatial planning, river basin management, legislation and regulation,

building codes, disaster information, public awareness and education, resettlement• Integrated flood control preventive measures structural improvementIntegrated flood control, preventive measures, structural improvement,

infrastructure reinforcement, – Financial protection

• Insurance, reinsurance, disaster funds– Emergency preparedness and responseEmergency preparedness and response

• Early warning, emergency and contingency recovery, response, training– Post disaster recovery and reconstruction

Page 24: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Need DRR to sustainable developmentNeed DRR to sustainable development

Number of people reported killed and total amount of reported i d b ll l di 1970 2009economic damages by all natural disasters, 1970-2009

http://www emdat be/databasehttp://www.emdat.be/database

Page 25: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:

• Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive, g– Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.

• Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning– Hydro-meteorological observation Social and economic stats etc– Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats, etc.

• Tools for Risk analysis, for identifying risks and places– Flood and Inundation analysis, Affecting factors, etc.

Page 26: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

The Disaster Management CycleThe Disaster Management Cycle

Disaster occurrence

&Mitigation 

Defense

Emergency Response, Recovery

Prevention

DMC

y

Rehabilitation,

Reconstruction

Page 27: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Japan’s disaster management relevant national laws surrounding Disaster Management Cycleg g y

Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake Law

Mega Scale

Meteorological Service Law

Volcanic Disaster

Flood Defense LawOil Incident Law

Nuclear Incident Law

Disaster occurrence

&Mitigation 

Mega Scale Earthquake Law

Volcanic Disaster Prevention Law

Sabo Law

River Law

Law for Disaster Management

People Protection Law

c

Defense

U b Fl d L

Sediment Disaster Law

Sabo Law

Disaster Rescue Law

Law of Self D f F

Emergency Response, Recovery

Prevention

DMCUrban Planning Law

Sewerage Law

Urban Flood Law

Fire Fighting Law

Fire Fighting

Defense Force

y

Rehabilitation,

Building Codes

F t L

Coast Law

Organization Law

Victims Rehabilitation Support Law

Reconstruction

Special Law for Severe Damage

Infrastructure Rehabilitation Law

Forest Conservation Law

Forest Law Disaster Condolence Fund Law

Page 28: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:

• Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive, g– Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.

• Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning– Hydro-meteorological observation Social and economic stats etc– Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats, etc.

• Tools for Risk analysis, for identifying risks and places– Flood and Inundation analysis, Damage and Impact assessment, etc.

• Capacity Evaluation, for improving DRR strategically– Legal and institutional fundamentals, communications, etc.

Page 29: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Climate Change Adaptation in Water Sector

Handbook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

A Resilient approach that Integrates Water Management and Community

lDevelopment

June 2011, JICA Global Environment Department

Page 30: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

CC adaptive Flood Management

Record of hydro-metrological data Climate Change Projection

CC adaptive Flood Management

Flood probability analysis

Runoff and Inundation analysis

Impact Evaluation on Extreme Events by Climate Change

Coping strategy

Target setting: 1) Strategic Area Protection by Multiple Measures2) Land Use Regulation n Watershed Measures

Runoff and Inundation analysis Coping strategy

) g3) Community-based Disaster Management

IWRM capacity development, Legal and Institutional fundamentalsp y p , g fFlood control,Reservoir, dikes,Flood ways,Protection wall,

Risk assessment, Early warning, Evacuation,Flood proofing,

Flood fighting,Community Based Disaster Management

Land use control, Storm Retention,Water Infiltration,Runoff control,Pr

ogra

m

Monitoring, O/M Poverty n Vulnerability Alleviation, Gender, Disability

Page 31: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Changing hydrology and water resourcesChanging hydrology and water resources

• Models for downscaling CCgA) AGCM20B) GCM dynamic downscalingC) GCM ensembleC) GCM ensembleD) Simple statistical downscalingE) Others

• Uncertainty b d lby models,by climatology,by CO2 projection,and by mitigations

Page 32: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Damage potential and impact assessment, followed by Adaptive Planning

Magnitude Damage potential and Strategy Selectable Measures to be

followed by Adaptive Planning

Magnitude of flood

Damage potential and impact

Small Little damage, avoidable

Strategy in case of

Selectable Measures to be taken

Small Preventive strategy mainly by infrastructure

Medium Damage on livelihood, no casualty

Large Heavy damage, must be

yMedium Preventive strategy with

some response measures

Large Combination of designed controlled

Extreme Severe damage, need comprehensive works

g gprevention and response

Extreme More emphasis on response side measures

Impact assess based on wide range of hazard projections

adaptive planning with multiple scenario selections

(a sample concept )(a sample concept )

Page 33: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:

• Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive, g– Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.

• Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning– Hydro-meteorological observation Social and economic stats etc– Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats, etc.

• Tools for Risk analysis, for identifying risks and places– Flood and Inundation analysis, Damage and Impact assessment, etc.

• Capacity Evaluation, for improving DRR strategically– Legal and institutional fundamentals, communications, etc.

• Climate Change Adaptation, for coping with global issuesg p , p g g– Models for downscaling CC, Analytical method, Planning, etc.

Page 34: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Japan’s support to ASEAN Disaster Management

1 AHA Center Establishment1. AHA Center Establishment 2. Supporting Study

3. Joint Research

Hitoshi BABAHitoshi BABAPh.D. Environment and Resource Engineering

Senior AdvisorJapan International Cooperation Agency

Page 35: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

JAPAN-ASEAN Cooperation for Disaster Risk Reduction

ASEAN ACDM

Other Regional 

Examples  of Actions

IndonesiaIndonesia

PhilippinesPhilippines

MalaysiaMalaysia

AADMERDisaster risk identification,Disaster risk identification,

ACDM

AHA CenterAPEC

Framework

Regional  Disaster Risk Assessment program,  technical guidelines

& Output 

MalaysiaMalaysia

ThailandThailand

VietnamVietnam

MyanmarMyanmar

identification, assessment and monitoring

identification, assessment and monitoring

Disaster prevention and mitigationDisaster prevention and mitigation

Di dDi d

WORK PROGRAMME 2010‐2015Risk Assessment, Early Warning and Monitoring

Prevention and MitigationPrevention and Mitigation

PartnershipPartnership

Resource mobilizationResource mobilization

ADPC Regional Early warning  program and 

operation  systems, training program

Regional monitoring guidelines, 

UNISDR‐WB‐ASEAN  yy

CambodiaCambodia

LaosLaos

BruneiBrunei

Disaster preparednessDisaster preparedness

Emergency responseEmergency response

Technical cooperation and scientific researchTechnical cooperation and scientific research

Preparedness and ResponsePreparedness and Response

RecoveryRecovery

InstitutionalizationInstitutionalization

Outreach and MainstreamingOutreach and Mainstreaming

Training and Knowledge Management

Training and Knowledge Management

Information Management and C i i T h lInformation Management and C i i T h l

UN‐ESCAP Expert Group, 

Satellite‐base disaster monitoring system

Regional training

Database and InformationSystem

project

SingaporeSingaporeRehabilitationRehabilitation

InstitutionalizationInstitutionalization Communication TechnologyCommunication TechnologyUNESCAP Committee on Disaster Risk 

Research activities

All JAPANJICA Adviser to formulate 

Cooperation Activities and to support AHA Center

Study to profile available resources of DRR and to formulate Cooperation Activities 

Joint Research for reducing disaster risks and vulnerability in ASEAN countries

Technology, Knowledge & Satellite data

ADRC DRH Asia ICHARM JAXASupporting Initiatives

JMA

SENTINEL Asia, GFAS, IFAS, GEOSS, ALOS, MTSAT, etc.EORC

Page 36: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

ConsiderationConsideration

Various initiatives surrounding ASEAN DRRgCollaborate with UNISDR, WB and other partnersConsider Asian-monsoon characteristicUtilize resourceful technology and experiences in this regionD l t h i l t d dDevelop technical standard

Page 37: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Japan’s Support to ASEAN DRRJapan s Support to ASEAN DRR

1. Support AHA Center Establishment– Adviser to help AHA Center implementing action plans and operating

programs and to formulate Cooperation Activities– Information and communication facilities of the Center

2 Study to support AADMER Work Program2. Study to support AADMER Work Program– Profiling available resources and information of DRR in ASEAN member

countries in order to enrich the AHA Center Database– Formulating Cooperation Activitiesg p– Developing regional standard for flood risk assessment

3. Joint Research (subjects candidate to be discussed further)– Research on Disaster-proof Infrastructure optimized with cost and benefit– Comprehensive Disaster Risk Assessment of Mega-Cities in ASEAN– Disaster Vulnerability Assessment and Business Continuity Plan of Major

Industrial Areas in ASEANW t i i l ti l i f G t E t J E th k– Worst case scenario simulation, learning from Great East Japan Earthquake

Page 38: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Subject matters of the supporting study1. Profiling available resources and information of DRR in ASEAN member countries in order

to enrich the AHA Center Database• Progress and plans of regional activities/projects under existing initiatives of many supporting entities

addressing disaster management in ASEAN, based on previous initiative*.• Existing plans of disaster risk assessment and outputs (hazard map, risk map) in each member country• Available data base and software which are operational to disaster risk management in each member country• Present capacity of disaster risk monitoring on hydrology, meteorology, seismology and damage assessment• Present capacity of disaster response concerning organizational structure, command system and laws andPresent capacity of disaster response concerning organizational structure, command system and laws and

regulations

2. Formulating candidate Japan -ASEAN cooperation activities/projects on disaster risk reduction

• Regional Disaster risk assessment Program, technical guidelinesg g g• Regional Early Warning Program and Operation Systems, training program• Regional Monitoring Guidelines, Satellite-base disaster monitoring system • Regional Training• Database and Information System

3. Developing regional standard for flood risk assessment• Collation of existing practices for assessing catastrophic risks that have been applied in ASEAN countries

including JICA bilateral projects • Promote joint learning and knowledge sharing • Develop and build consensus on regional standard approach(es) for catastrophic flood risks assessment inDevelop and build consensus on regional standard approach(es) for catastrophic flood risks assessment in

ASEAN• Develop capacities of ASEAN countries and the AHA Centre in flood risk assessment

* Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN Countries Disaster Risks Assessment, ASEAN Disaster Risk Management Initiative. December 2010

Page 39: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

‘Way forward’Source: Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN CountriesSource: Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN Countries Disaster Risks Assessment. ASEAN Disaster Risk

Management Initiative, December 2010

Additional analyses on the most damaging quick onset of Disasters (floods, storms (typhoons and cyclones), earthquakes and Tsunamis.

• Level 1: An analysis of risk aggregation by hazard type and area at a higher level of resolution (for example a 100‐km grid).

• Level 2: Worst‐case scenarios for the highly populated cities with quantification of losses, estimating the range of probability of occurrence of the scenarios.

• Level 3: Fully probabilistic analysis containing all the elements of standard risk analysis.

Page 40: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Required ASEAN standardRequired ASEAN standard

• To secure minimum requirement of risk assessment– Information to be retrieved quickly through cool interface– Methodology that could be commonly used by partners when needed to

implement analysis effectively • To compare risks by country or region based on common criteria• To conduct real time risk assessment effectively in emergency• To match with various conditions, such as budget constrain, geologicalTo match with various conditions, such as budget constrain, geological

conditions, socio-economic conditions• To develop outcomes of partners support to regional level

Page 41: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

ASEAN Standard classification by:ASEAN Standard classification by:

• Terminology T f di• Type of disaster– Flood, Drought, Storm (Inc. Typhoon, Cyclone), Earthquake, Tsunami, Landslide,

Volcano, Wildfire (Inc. Forest fire), Epidemic, Human Induced (Inc. Industrial Incident, Nuclear Accident)

S l f hi f• Scale of geographic focus– Regional, National, Sub-National

• Database – Disaster profile, loss, provability, studies, etc.p , , p y, ,– Database system, index model,

• Methodologies and tools– Type of analysis

• Analysis for each disaster type analysis for multi hazardAnalysis for each disaster type, analysis for multi hazard• Analysis for hazard, vulnerability, risk, coping capacity

– Required data (ground observation, satellite, etc.)– Resolution levels by disaster type and analysis type– Accuracy interface etc– Accuracy, interface, etc.

Page 42: Flood Risk Assessment (Hitoshi Baba)

Schedule

2011 Nov: preparation of Activitiesp pDec: mobilization of Advisor

2012 Apr: Inception of StudyMay: Regional workshop on FRA