florida demographic overview - edr

The Florida LegislatureOffice of Economic and

Demographic Research850.487.1402http://edr.state.fl.us

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Florida Demographic Overview

Enterprise FloridaJune 14, 2007

June 14, 2007Page 1

EconomyFlorida remains one of the nation’s faster growing states.

The latest forecast shows the economy expanding at a more modest pace, much slower than the 2004-05 banner year.

Population growth continues to be the state’s primary engine of economic growth, fueling both employment and income growth.

June 14, 2007Page 2

PopulationPopulation growth has hovered between 2.0% and 2.6%, since the mid 1990’s. Over the forecast horizon, population growth will slow – averaging just 1.1% between 2025 and 2030.

Florida is on track to break the 20 million mark and become the third most populous state – surpassing New York – shortly after 2010.

In the next decade, almost one-half (46%) of U.S. population growth will come form three states: California, Texas and Florida.

June 14, 2007Page 3

Florida’s April 1 Population

Florida’s population:was 15,982,824 in 2000was 18,349,132 in 2006is forecast to grow to 26,513,331 by 2030

200618,349,132

200015,982,824

203026,513,331

4,800,000

9,800,000

14,800,000

19,800,000

24,800,000

29,800,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

June 14, 2007Page 4

Florida’s Population Growth

Population increased by:402,580 between 1999 and 2000430,905 between 2005 and 2006

Population is forecast to increase on average by:344,125 between 2015 and 2020285,472 between 2025 and 2030

1999-2000402,580

2005-2006430,905

annual av eragegrow th 2025-2030

285,472

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

June 14, 2007Page 5

Florida’s Population Growth

Most of Florida’s population growth is from net migration, representing about 87 percent of Florida’s population growth between 2005 and 2006

By the mid-2020s, all of Florida’s growth is forecast to be from net migration

-50,000

50,000

150,000

250,000

350,000

450,000

1969-1970

1974-1975

1979-1980

1984-1985

1989-1990

1994-1995

1999-2000

2004-2005

2009-2010

2014-2015

2019-2020

2024-2025

2029-2030

Net Migration

Natural Increase

June 14, 2007Page 6

Net Migration by County(April 1, 2000 to April 1, 2006)

Statewide, net migration accounted for 88.7% of the population growth between April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2006.

There were 22 counties in the state, where all the growth between April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2006 has been due to net migration.

June 14, 2007Page 7

2030

In 2000, females slightly outnumbered males in the state

This relationship is forecast to remain relatively constant through 2030

Florida’s Population by Gender

Male48.8%

Female51.2%

June 14, 2007Page 8

Median Age of Floridians(April 1, 2005)

The median age of Florida residents was estimated at 39.7years as of April 1, 2005.

There were 3 counties with a median age below 30: Alachua (29.2), Leon (29.5), and Hendry (29.5).

There were 4 counties with a median age of 50 and older: Charlotte (54.3), Citrus (53.5), Sarasota (51.7), and Highlands (50.5).

June 14, 2007Page 9

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

0-17 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+

age group

Population by Age Group

April 1, 2006

As of April 1, 2006, it was estimated that there were:4.1 million Floridians under the age of 182.7 million Floridians between 18 and 292.7 million Floridians in their 40s2.4 million Floridians in their 50s2.3 million Floridians in their 30s1.7 million Floridians in their 60s1.4 million Floridians in their 70sjust under 1 million Floridians 80 or older

June 14, 2007Page 10

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

0-17 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+

age group

Percent of Population Growth by Age Group

April 1, 2006 to April 1, 2030

Between 2006 and 2030, Florida’s population is forecast to grow by over 8 million

Florida’s older population (age 60 and older) will account for most of Florida’s population growth, representing 55.3 percent of the gains

Florida’s younger population (age 0-17) will account for 14 percent of the gains


In 2000, Florida’s prime working age population (ages 25-54) accounted for 41.5 percent of total population. With the aging baby boom generation, this percentage is estimated to have fallen to 40.2 percent in 2006 and by 2030 is projected to represent 34.1 percent

Population aged 65 and over is forecast to represent 26.1 percent in 2030, compared to 17.6 percent in 2000 and 16.9 percent in 2006

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 - 4 5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 1920 - 24

25 - 2930 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 4445 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 5960 - 64

65 - 6970 - 74

75 - 79

80 - 84 85+

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 - 4 5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 1920 - 24

25 - 2930 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 4445 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 5960 - 64

65 - 6970 - 74

75 - 79

80 - 84 85+

2000 2006 2006 2030

Percent of Total Population by Age Group

percent percent


School-Age Population and Public School Enrollment

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Perc

ent C

hang

e

Population Age 5 to 17

Public School Enrollment

Florida’s school-age population (ages 5-17) currently represents about 16.5% of the total population. This age group is forecast to represent 14.7% of total population by 2030.

School-age population has been slowing in growth, but is not expected to decline over the forecast horizon.

Growth in public school enrollment has slowed from a recent peak of 2.8% in 2001 to a decline of 0.4% in 2006.


Florida’s Population by Race

White20,647,648

78.2%

Other988,726

3.7%Black or African

American4,782,792

18.1%

White14,785,711

80.7%

Black or African American3,030,506

16.5%

Other505,451

2.8%

White13,132,438

82.2%

Black or African American2,468,576

15.4%

Other381,810

2.4%

In 2006, Florida’s population was estimated to be 80.7 percent White and 16.5 percent Black or African American

Florida is forecast to be 78.2 percent White and 18.1 percent Black or African American in 2030

20062000

2030


Florida’s Hispanic Population

16.8%19.1% 19.6%

20.9%22.3%

23.5% 24.4% 25.1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2000 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Currently Hispanics represent about 19.6 percent of Florida’s population

Florida will become increasingly more Hispanic; as Hispanics are forecast to represent just over 25 percent of Florida’s population in 2030


Language and Foreign Born

In 2005, over 4.1 million Floridians (age 5 or older) did not speak only English at home; 1 million of which spoke English “not well” or “not at all”. If this relationship continues, by 2030, over 6.4 million Floridians (age 5 or older) will speak another language possibly in addition to English at home, of which almost 1.6 million will speak English “not well” or “not at all”.

In 2005, 18.7% of Florida’s household population was foreign born.

Floridians in households(age 5 or older)

2005Total 16,270,161

Speak only English 12,141,842Speak another Language 4,128,319

Speak English “very well” 2,271,250Speak English “well” 820,066Speak English “not well” 664,748Speak English “not at all” 372,255

Language Spoken at Home


Florida’s County Population34 of Florida’s 67 counties have a population of less than 100,000

The top 7 counties make up 52% of Florida’s total population 25Under 50,000

950,000 to 99,99911100,000 to 249,999

11250,000 to 499,9996500,000 to 999,9995One million or more

Number of Florida Counties

April 1, 2006Population


Population GrowthApril 1, 2000 - April 1, 2006

Counties Gaining the Most PopulationMiami-Dade 183,243Orange 183,180Hillsborough 165,477Palm Beach 156,796Lee 144,720


Population Growth RateApril 1, 2000 - April 1, 2006

Counties Growing the FastestFlagler 78.8%Sumter 54.8%Osceola 48.4%Walton 37.4%St. Lucie 34.6%


Personal Income

Personal IncomeFlorida(000s)

Per Capita Income Florida

2000 $457,539,355 2000 28,507

2001 $478,637,023 2001 29,266

Change 2000-01 4.6% Change 2000-01 2.7%

2002 $495,489,345 2002 29,702

Change 2001-02 3.5% Change 2001-02 1.5%

2003 $514,377,645 2003 30,290

Change 2002-03 3.8% Change 2002-03 2.0%

2004 $564,997,468 2004 32,534

Change 2003-04 9.8% Change 2003-04 7.4%

2005 $604,131,000 2005 34,001

Change 2004-05 6.9% Change 2004-05 4.5%

2006p $647,582,667 2006p 35,798

Change 2005-06p 7.2% Change 2005-06p 5.3%

p=preliminary


Employment Breakdown

Average Annual Employment,% by Category, 2005 Florida Average Annual Wage, 2005 Florida

All Industries $36,804

Natural Resources and Mining 1.3% Natural Resources and Mining $22,841

Construction 7.5% Construction $38,284

Manufacturing 5.2% Manufacturing $43,409

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 20.1% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities $33,950

Information 2.2% Information $52,849

Financial Activities 6.8% Financial Activities $52,659

Professional and Business Services 17.1% Professional and Business Services $39,390

Education and Health Services 11.7% Education and Health Services $38,322

Leisure and Hospitality 11.4% Leisure and Hospitality $19,303

Other Services 3.1% Other Services $25,768

Government 13.6% Government $41,272


Baby Boom Cohort

Birth Cycle: 1946 – 1964Entry into the Workforce: 1967 – 1985Entry into Retirement: 2011 – 2029

2050


Global TrendsBy 2025, the world will be:

Much Older (the US will largely look like FL today)Far Less CaucasianFar More Concentrated in Urban Areas

The aging population is a function of:The Baby Boom CohortFalling Fertility RatesRising Longevity (life expectancy)


National TrendsThe ratio of taxpaying workers to retirees will fall:

Today, 4:150 Years from Now, 3:1 (Florida, 2:1)

Labor force contraction could depress economic output and boost inflation (GNP...1.5% Growth)Attracting migration from countries which have greater youth populations will become an important relief valve for worker shortagesIncentive programs to keep workers in the workforce longer will also be important


Florida Challenges

Aging StateAging State – more intense in Florida than elsewhere because population share (26.1% in 2030)Growing StateGrowing State – all of the same problems as we’ve had in the past, only more so

Greater Need for ServicesAllocation of Increasingly Scarce Natural Resources (especially water)Provision of Needed Infrastructure (new and replaced)

florida demographic overview - edr

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