florida labor market and economic update workforce estimating conference

Florida Labor Market and Economic Update

Workforce Estimating ConferenceLabor Market Statistics Center

September 7, 2012

Labor Force ConditionsJuly 2012, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program in cooperation with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, released August 17, 2012.

The current state unemployment rate is down from the high rates reported in early 2010 (11.4 percent)The unemployment rate in the state has been higher than the nation since April 2008

2

Area Labor Force Employment UnemploymentUnemployment

Rate

Year Ago Unemployment

Rate

Florida 9,269,000 8,453,000 816,000 8.8 10.6

United States 155,013,000 142,220,000 12,794,000 8.3 9.1

Unemployment Rates, Florida and the United StatesJanuary 1974 – July 2012, Seasonally Adjusted


3

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan-7

4Ja

n-75

Jan-7

6Ja

n-77

Jan-7

8Ja

n-79

Jan-8

0Ja

n-81

Jan-8

2Ja

n-83

Jan-8

4Ja

n-85

Jan-8

6Ja

n-87

Jan-8

8Ja

n-89

Jan-9

0Ja

n-91

Jan-9

2Ja

n-93

Jan-9

4Ja

n-95

Jan-9

6Ja

n-97

Jan-9

8Ja

n-99

Jan-0

0Ja

n-01

Jan-0

2Ja

n-03

Jan-0

4Ja

n-05

Jan-0

6Ja

n-07

Jan-0

8Ja

n-09

Jan-1

0Ja

n-11

Jan-1

2

Recession

Florida

United States

• 1973 oil embargo• Multi-family housing market

Peak unemployment rate 11.9 percent, May 1975

• 1979 energy crisis• Tight monetary policy• Savings and loan collapse

• Defense spending declines• End of the Gulf War• Airlines deregulation

• IT bubble collapse• 9/11 events• Manufacturing outsourcing

• Oil prices• Housing bubble collapse• Financial crisis

Peak unemployment rate 11.4 percent, January-February 2010

Unemployment Rates in the Ten Most Populous StatesRanked by Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted


State

July 2012(P)Unemployment Rate

(%)

July 2011 Unemployment Rate

(%)

California 10.7 11.9 -1.2North Carolina 9.6 10.7 -1.1Georgia 9.3 10.0 -0.7New York 9.1 8.2 0.9Michigan 9.0 10.6 -1.6Illinois 8.9 10.1 -1.2Florida 8.8 10.6 -1.8Pennsylvania 7.9 8.1 -0.2Ohio 7.2 8.9 -1.7Texas 7.2 8.1 -0.9

Change

4

Nonagricultural EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted

Florida’s jobs grew in July on an annual basis for the 24th consecutive monthFlorida has lost 743,400 jobs during the current downturn (March 2007 to July 2012)

Seasonally Adjusted July 2012 July 2011 Change Percent Change

Florida 7,331,400 7,261,500 69,900 1.0%

United States 133,245,000 131,407,000 1,838,000 1.4%

5

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released August 17, 2012.Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center.


6

Florida Nonagricultural EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted, 1974-Current

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

8,000,000

8,500,000

Jan-7

4

Jan-7

5

Jan-7

6

Jan-7

7

Jan-7

8

Jan-7

9

Jan-8

0

Jan-8

1

Jan-8

2

Jan-8

3

Jan-8

4

Jan-8

5

Jan-8

6

Jan-8

7

Jan-8

8

Jan-8

9

Jan-9

0

Jan-9

1

Jan-9

2

Jan-9

3

Jan-9

4

Jan-9

5

Jan-9

6

Jan-9

7

Jan-9

8

Jan-9

9

Jan-0

0

Jan-0

1

Jan-0

2

Jan-0

3

Jan-0

4

Jan-0

5

Jan-0

6

Jan-0

7

Jan-0

8

Jan-0

9

Jan-1

0

Jan-1

1

Jan-1

2

FloridaTotal Nonagricultural Employment, Seasonally Adjusted

January 1974 - Present

Recession Total Nonagricultural Employment, SA

Nonagricultural Employment by IndustryFlorida, July 2012 (Seasonally Adjusted)

Construction4.2%

Manufacturing4.3%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

20.7%

Information1.8%

Financial Activities6.6%

Professional and Business Services

14.9%

Education and Health Services15.4% Leisure and

Hospitality13.2%

Other Services4.1%

Total Government14.8%

7


Professional and Business Services Gained the Most Jobs Over the YearFlorida, July 2011 – July 2012, Seasonally Adjusted

8


41,600

19,500

17,400

14,900

5,700

1,300

1,100

-4,100

-10,700

-16,900

-20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Professional and Business Services

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Education and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Financial Activities

Information

Manufacturing

Other Services

Government

Construction

Employment in the Ten Most Populous StatesRanked by Over-the-Year Level Change, Seasonally Adjusted

JulyState 2012P Percent Change Level ChangeCalifornia 14,358,600 2.6% 365,100Texas 10,804,000 2.1% 222,500New York 8,808,500 1.3% 113,300Ohio 5,187,100 2.0% 100,300Florida 7,331,400 1.0% 69,900Michigan 4,004,300 1.5% 59,800Georgia 3,933,800 1.3% 50,800North Carolina 3,956,700 0.9% 36,800Illinois 5,686,900 0.5% 28,600Pennsylvania 5,709,200 0.4% 20,000

July 2011 - July 2012P

9


Wages by IndustryFlorida, 2011

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Program. Released June 2012.

Industry Average Annual

Wages Total, All Industries $42,311

Information $64,542Financial Activities $59,482Manufacturing $52,373Professional and Business Services $50,822Government $47,823Education and Health Services $44,454Construction $40,873Trade, Transportation, and Utilities $37,751Other Services $29,807Natural Resources and Mining $25,151Leisure and Hospitality $21,824

10

Average Annual Wage

11

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$42,311

$48,040

FloridaUS

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Program, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2011 preliminary.

Real-Time LMI Help-Wanted OnLineOccupations In Demand

12

Note: The * denotes occupations on the new 2013-14 statewide demand occupation list.Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine.Prepared by: The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center.

Top Advertised Occupations for Florida-August 2012Online Ads

August 2012Online Ads

August 2011Florida Total Ads 264,253 230,949 Registered Nurses * 17,411 13,053 Retail Salespersons 9,142 7,846 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers * 7,983 6,769 Customer Service Representatives 6,602 5,707 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer * 5,078 4,162 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers * 4,597 4,091 Web Developers 4,396 3,895 Sales Reps, Whlse & Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products * 4,342 4,325 Computer Systems Analysts 4,068 4,090 Occupational Therapists 3,930 3,708 Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants * 3,871 3,459 Physical Therapists 3,743 4,472 Medical and Health Services Managers 3,498 3,105 Telemarketers 3,434 2,840 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers * 3,308 2,874 Insurance Sales Agents * 3,193 2,798 Computer Support Specialists 3,153 2,919 Sales Agents, Financial Services 3,093 2,588 Accountants 3,074 2,628 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 3,048 2,597


13


Top Advertised Occupations Requiring Post-Secondary and Associate Degrees

Online AdsAugust 2012

Online AdsAugust 2011

Florida Total Ads 264,253 230,949 Registered Nurses * 17,411 13,053 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers * 7,983 6,769 Customer Service Representatives 6,602 5,707 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer * 5,078 4,162 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Prep & Serving Workers * 4,597 4,091 Web Developers 4,396 3,895 Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Except Technical & Scientific Products * 4,342 4,325 Computer Systems Analysts 4,068 4,090 Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants * 3,871 3,459 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers * 3,308 2,874 Insurance Sales Agents * 3,193 2,798 Computer Support Specialists 3,153 2,919 Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Technical & Scientific Products * 2,559 2,319 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 2,426 1,870 Network and Computer Systems Administrators 2,293 2,092 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks * 2,297 1,785 Computer Software Engineers, Applications 2,215 1,844 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Non-Retail Sales Workers * 2,187 1,696 Medical Secretaries * 2,014 1,822 General and Operations Managers * 1,920 1,597


14


Top Advertised Occupations Requiring a Bachelor's Degree Online Ads


August 2011Florida Total Ads 264,253 230,949 Occupational Therapists 3,945 3,708Medical and Health Services Managers * 3,510 3,105Sales Agents, Financial Services * 3,101 2,588Accountants * 3,088 2,629Sales Managers * 2,568 2,245Marketing Managers * 2,305 1,965Financial Managers, Branch or Department * 1,817 1,567Management Analysts * 1,437 1,100Industrial Engineers * 1,313 1,338Public Relations Specialists * 1,202 861Market Research Analysts 1,153 908Human Resources Managers 1,040 716Physician Assistants * 1,016 657Training and Development Specialists 993 796Computer and Information Systems Managers * 919 829Personal Financial Advisors * 897 462Auditors * 798 768Financial Analysts * 714 698Tutors 659 491Mechanical Engineers * 631 679


15


Top Advertised Occupations Requiring a Master's Degree and AboveOnline Ads


August 2011Florida Total Ads 264,253 230,949 Physical Therapists * 3,776 4,475Speech-Language Pathologists * 1,979 2,062Lawyers * 844 688Family and General Practitioners * 749 963Nurse Practitioners 664 241Pharmacists * 643 833Educational, Vocational, and School Counselors 567 587Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers 557 435Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 487 569Internists, General * 467 624Surgeons * 456 454Operations Research Analysts 402 416Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists * 393 323Dentists, General * 315 161Child, Family, and School Social Workers 234 277Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary * 204 198Psychiatrists 184 196Art, Drama, and Music Teachers, Postsecondary * 177 173Hospitalists 176 283Medical and Public Health Social Workers 172 186

16

Real-Time LMIHelp Wanted OnLine™

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Online

ads

Unemployment

Labor Supply vs. Labor Demand

Unemployment (supply)

HWOL Ads (demand)

SOURCE: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine data series.

17

Real-Time LMIHelp Wanted OnLine™

150000

170000

190000

210000

230000

250000

270000

6,700,000

6,900,000

7,100,000

7,300,000

7,500,000

7,700,000

7,900,000

8,100,000

Online

Ads

Employment

Employment vs. Labor Demand

Employment

Online Ads (demand)

SOURCE: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine data series.

Targeted Industry Clusters

CleantechLife SciencesInfotechAviation and AerospaceLogistics and DistributionHomeland Security/DefenseFinancial/Professional Services

– Strategic Areas of Emphasis•Manufacturing•Corporate Headquarters•Emerging Technologies

18

Unemployment Rate(Percent)

Median Earnings (Dollars)

Master’s degree

Bachelor’s degree

Associate degree

Some college, no degree

14.1

9.4

8.7

6.8

4.9

3.6

2.4

2.5

$23,452

$33,176

$37,388

$39,936

$54,756

$65,676

$86,580

$80,652

High-school graduate

Some high-school, no diploma

Professional degree

Doctoral degree

Notes: Unemployment and earnings for workers 25 and older; earnings for full-time wage and salary workers. 2011 Weekly Median Earnings (multiplied by 52 weeks).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. March 2012.

Education and Training pay …2011 Annual Average

19

FloridaDepartment of Economic Opportunity

Labor Market Statistics Center

Caldwell BuildingMSC G-020

107 E. Madison StreetTallahassee, Florida 32399-4111

Phone (850) 245-7257

Rebecca [email protected]

www.floridajobs.orgfreida.labormarketinfo.com

www.floridawages.comwww.whatpeopleareasking.com

20

http://www.floridajobs.org/

http://fred.labormarketinfo.com/

http://www.floridawages.com/

http://www.whatpeopleareasking.com/

florida labor market and economic update workforce estimating conference

Documents

department of labor

bureau of labor statistics

florida labor market

labor force conditionsjuly

economic updateworkforce

wages program

unemployment rates

current downturn