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MARTIN ASSOCIATES

Florida Trade Flow Study

presented to Florida Transportation Commission

November 5, 2010

presented byCarrie Blanchard, Ph.D., Florida Chamber Foundation.

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Florida’s Leaders Have Come Together To Shape Florida’s Future • Florida Chamber Foundation

» Research organization and problem-solver, working in partnership with state business leaders to advance and fund activities in public policy research

• Florida Department of Transportation

» Provides a safe transportation system that ensures the mobility of people and goods, enhances economic prosperity and preserves the quality of our environment and communities

Plum Creek

Lykes Brothers

Duda

Florida Ports Council

Florida Land Council

Florida Trucking Association

Enterprise Florida

CSX

Norfolk Southern

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Florida Trade Flow Study Objectives

• Document existing domestic and international trade flows

• Estimate future domestic and international trade flows

• Identify opportunities for Florida to compete globally

• Recommend strategies to pursue most attractive opportunities

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Florida Trade Flow Study Activities

• Overseen by Study Review Committee

• Research led by national experts» Cambridge Systematics, Inc.» Martin Associates

• Detailed database » Domestic/international freight flows to, from, within Florida» 10, 25, 50 year forecasts

• Economic impact models

• Interviews with ~100 shippers, carriers, ports/terminals, economic developers

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Real Gross Domestic Product

Real Value of Imports and Exports

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Trill

ion

U. S

. 200

0 D

olla

rs

Source: Global Insight, Inc. April 2009.

Why Focus on Trade?U.S. Foreign Trade Value Expected to Quadruple by 2035

5

66

Why Focus on Trade? Changing Global Trading Patterns Favor Florida

Source: European Communities, 2008

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Why Focus on Trade?Florida Located in Fastest Growing US Consumer Market

Source: America 2050, Regional Plan Association

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88

Georgia Texas Louisiana North Carolina

Alabama Mississippi South Carolina

United States

8.9%

8.4%

7.6%7.4%

7.0% 6.8%

6.2%

5.7%

7.5%

Trade and Logistics in Florida TodayKey Source of Higher Wage Jobs

• 570,000 direct jobs in trade and logistics in 2008

• Typical wage 29% higher than state average

Logistics Industry Percent of Total Employment

Florida

20081998

8

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2008

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Trade and Logistics in Florida Today Estimated Domestic & International Trade Flows, 2010

Source: Martin Associates, 2010 estimate based on TRANSEARCH, PIERS, and STB Rail Waybill data.

1

93

71

452 mil-lion tons

Air

Water

Rail

Truck

1010

Exports103 million tons

Imports186 million tons

Trade and Logistics in Florida Today Current Imbalance of Trade Flows

Within Florida327 million tons

Source: Martin Associates, 2010 estimate based on TRANSEARCH, PIERS, and STB Rail Waybill data.

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Trade and Logistics in Florida Today Florida Dominates Latin American/Caribbean Markets, but Has Room to Grow Elsewhere

Caribbean Central America South America NAFTA Europe Asia0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Flor

ida

Shar

e of

U.S

. Tra

de V

alue

by

Regi

on

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Merchandise Trade Statistics, compiled by Enterprise Florida; shows share of trade based on value through Florida Customs Districts regardless of origin or ultimate destination

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Florida’s Future Trade Opportunities

1. Grow Florida origin exports

2. Maximize ability to serve supply chain for Florida businesses and consumers through Florida gateways

3. Expand Florida’s role as a trade gateway for the Eastern United States, the Caribbean, and Latin America

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1313

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Opportunity 1: Grow Florida-Origin Exports

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Goal: Double value of Florida-origin exports within 5 years

Billions

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Opportunity 2: Maximize Ability to Serve Florida Businesses & Consumers

Conceptual Illustration Only

Direct To Florida Ports of Entry

Direct to Florida through Ports

Intermodal Distribution to Florida

Containerized Imports – Today

1515

Opportunity 2: Maximize Ability to Serve Florida Businesses & Consumers

Conceptual Illustration Only

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Direct To Florida Ports of Entry

Direct to Florida through Ports

Intermodal Distribution to Florida

Containerized Imports – Future

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Opportunity 3: Florida as a Global Hub

Air routesSurface routesSea routes

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How Do We Get There?Transportation Strategies

• Capacity» Expand seaport capacity;

develop at least one first port of call (50 foot depth)

» Maintain MIA’s global role and develop additional air cargo capacity

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c

ExistingAuthorizedUnder Study

Ports >48’ Depth

Halifax

New York

Norfolk

SavannahJacksonville

Miami

Everglades

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How Do We Get There?Transportation Strategies

• Connectivity» Continue to improve

intermodal connectors to seaports and airports (especially on-dock rail)

» Improve regional distribution networks

» Develop “marine highways” to other seaports

» Improve rail and truck corridors to Eastern U.S.

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Source: Federal Highway Administration

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How Do We Get There?It’s Also About Economic Competitiveness

• Growth Leadership» Develop international

distribution centers close to major gateways

» Identify sites for industrial and logistics centers

• Economic Development» Identify global logistics

as statewide targeted industry

» Target incentives, assistance to key industry clusters

• Talent Supply and Education» Expand global logistics

workforce capacity

» Develop and retain skilled workers in distribution, manufacturing

• Business Climate and Competitiveness» Match national security

standards

• Quality of Life» Reduce impact of freight on

communities, environment

Source: Info USA 19

2020

Civic and Governance SystemsNeed Different Planning Approach for Trade

Public Sector

Private Sector

Global

National

Region/Megaregion

Local

2121

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What’s Next?

• Complete alternative forecasts

• Estimate economic impacts

• Publish final report

• Huddle Working Group

• Incorporate into» 6 caucuses, Cornerstone 2030» 2060 Florida Transportation Plan» Other statewide initiatives

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Contact Information

• For additional information, please contact:

» Carrie Blanchard, Florida Chamber Foundationcblanchard@flfoundation.org or 850-521-1283

» John Kaliski, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.jkaliski@camsys.com or 617-354-0167

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