fnl srnmp vol 2 uppwd r2

Government of Uttar Pradesh PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT, WORLD BANK DIVISION Preparation of Strategic Road Network Master Plan for Uttar Pradesh

FINAL REPORT (Revision 1)

SCRN-MP-COMPREHENSIVE DATABASE – Volume 2

April 2014

SREI/IAD/SRMP/FINAL/R1

Government of Uttar Pradesh

PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT, WORLD BANK DIVISION

PREPARATION OF STRATEGIC CORE ROAD NETWORK - MASTER PLAN

FOR UTTAR PRADESH

MASTER PLAN

Volume 2

CONTENTS

1. VISION STATEMENT 1-1 1.1. PREAMBLE 1-1 1.2. VISION STATEMENT FOR ROAD DEVELOPMENT 1-2

1.2.1. Background 1-2

1.2.2. India’s Vision for Year 2020 1-2

1.2.3. India’s Core Strengths and Inherent Weaknesses 1-3

1.2.4. Vision for Economic Development during 2011-2031 1-3

1.2.5. Vision for Road Development in UP for 2031 1-4

1.2.6. Sustainable Road Development 1-8

1.2.7. Sodic Soil 1-9

1.2.8. Use of Geo-Textiles for slope protection 1-9

1.2.9. Silty Soil 1-9

1.2.10. Riverbanks 1-9

1.2.11. Replacement of Old-Brick-Arch Bridges 1-9

1.2.12. Urban Roads 1-10

1.2.13. Energy Conservation 1-10

1.2.14. Quality Systems 1-10

1.2.15. Funding of Road Projects 1-11

2. DEVELOPMENT AND OPERATION OF BASE YEAR TDM 2-1 2.1. NETWORK DEVELOPMENT 2-1

2.1.1. Cube Software Description & Requirement 2-1

2.1.2. Network Plan Preparation on GIS & Cube Platform 2-4

2.1.3. Base Map Preparation on GIS 2-4

2.1.4. Network Building from Base Map on Cube Software 2-7

2.1.5. Network Coding 2-7

2.1.6. Final Node and Link Diagram for Current Study 2-12 2.2. TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES (TAZ) 2-12

2.2.1. Methodology of Zone Formation 2-12 2.3. TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS 2-18

2.3.1. Passenger Traffic 2-18 2.4. FREIGHT TRAFFIC 2-24

2.4.1. Total Daily Trips by Movement Type 2-24 2.5. FINDINGS FROM TRAVEL DATA ANALYSIS 2-31

2.5.1. Passenger Traffic 2-31

2.5.2. Freight Traffic 2-32 2.6. BASE YEAR TRAVEL DEMAND MODELLING 2-32

2.6.1. Context 2-32 2.7. MODELLING APPROACH ADOPTED 2-33

2.7.1. Intra-Regional Travel Demand 2-33

2.7.2. Passenger 2-33

2.7.3. Freight Demand 2-36




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2.7.4. Inter State Passenger Travel Demand 2-37

2.7.5. Model Calibration 2-37 2.8. MODEL INPUT GENERATION 2-37

2.8.1. Traffic Zone System 2-37

2.8.2. Transportation Network 2-37

2.8.3. Traffic & Travel Characteristics 2-38 2.9. DEVELOPMENT OF BASE YEAR OD MATRIX 2-38


2.9.2. OD Matrix Development 2-39 2.10. BASE YEAR TRAVEL TIME MATRIX 2-40 2.11. TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS AND ITS CALIBRATION 2-40

2.11.1. Trip Generation Models 2-40

2.11.2. Trip Production for Passenger Trips 2-41

2.11.3. Trip Attraction for Passenger Trips 2-45

2.11.4. Trip Production for Freight Trips (Tonnage) 2-50

2.11.5. Trip Attraction for Freight Trips (Tonnage) 2-56

2.11.6. Trip Distribution Models 2-64

2.11.7. Trip Assignment and Validation 2-65 2.12. ASSESSMENT OF GROWTH DYNAMICS OF THE REGION(S) 2-72

2.12.1. Population 2-72

2.12.2. Population Projections for UP 2-73 2.13. ECONOMIC DIMENSION 2-75

2.13.1. Employment 2-75

2.13.2. State Income 2-77

2.13.3. Per Capita Income 2-78 2.14. ROAD RAIL TRAFFIC TRENDS 2-80

2.14.1. Overview of Railway Sector in India 2-81

2.14.2. Overview of road sector in India 2-81

2.14.3. Trends of road and rail traffic share in India 2-82

2.14.4. TRENDS OF ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORT IN UTTAR PRADESH 2-83

2.14.5. Inferences on Rail network development of Road Transport Share in UP 2-84

3. TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST 3-1 3.1. PLANNING FORECAST 3-1

3.1.1. Population Forecast 3-1

3.1.2. Workers Forecast 3-7 3.2. DEMAND FORECAST 3-12

3.2.1. Trip End Forecast 3-13

3.2.2. Traffic Forecast Summary 3-16

3.2.3. Trip Distribution 3-17

3.2.4. Traffic Assignment 3-17 3.3. HORIZON YEAR ROAD NETWORK 3-25

3.3.1. Planned Projects 3-25 3.4. CONCLUSIONS 3-26

4. IDENTIFICATION OF STRATEGIC CORE ROAD NETWORK 4-1 4.1. EXTRACTS FROM SETTLEMENT POTENTIAL ANALYSIS 4-1 4.2. SUMMARY OF SETTLEMENT POTENTIAL ANALYSIS 4-1

4.2.1. Weighted Index Method (Development Potential Index, DPI) 4-3

4.2.2. Settlement Hierarchy 4-12 4.3. STRATEGIC CORE NETWORK - APPROACH 4-15

4.3.1. Vision Statement for Strategic Core Road Network 4-15

4.3.2. Approach 4-16 4.4. SCREENING OF NETWORK 4-19

4.4.1. Introduction 4-19




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4.4.2. Scoring of Network Links 4-21 4.5. INITIAL CORE NETWORK IDENTIFICATION 4-22

4.5.1. Identification of Common set of Network links 4-22 4.6. CORE NETWORK EVALUATION 4-23


4.6.2. Evaluation of Alternative Scenarios 4-23

4.6.3. Identification of Additional Links 4-24

4.6.4. Initial Strategic Core Network 4-24

4.6.5. Strategic Core Network 4-27 4.7. IDENTIFICATION OF MAJOR TRAVEL CORRIDORS 4-33

5. ISSUES PERTAINING TO DESIGN OF PAVEMENT 5-1 5.1. IRC CODES ADOPTED 5-1 5.2. ADOPTION OF FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT DESIGN GUIDELINES IRC:37-2012 INSTEAD OF IRC:37-2001 5-1 5.3. VEHICLE DAMAGE FACTOR 5-2

6. COST OF ROAD IMPROVEMENTS OF CORE NETWORK 6-1 6.1. CORE NETWORK LENGTH 6-1 6.2. TYPES OF IMPROVEMENTS PROPOSED 6-2

6.2.1. Removal of deficiencies 6-2

6.2.2. Capacity Augmentation 6-2

6.2.3. Replacement of railway level crossing by ROBs 6-2

6.2.4. Replacement of Pontoon Bridges by RCC bridges 6-2 6.3. ESTIMATES FOR ROAD IMPROVEMENT WORKS 6-2

6.3.1. Typical Estimates 6-2

6.3.2. Road Widening and Strengthening Schemes 6-3

6.3.3. Rates 6-3

6.3.4. Unit Cost of Widening and Strengthening 6-4

6.3.5. Costs of Road Improvements of Various Categories 6-5

6.3.6. Total Cost of Road Improvements 6-5 6.4. REPLACEMENT OF PONTOON BRIDGES BY RCC BRIDGES IN THE CORE NETWORK 6-5

6.4.1. Need 6-5

6.4.2. Number of Pontoon Bridges in Core Network 6-6 6.5. NEW RCC MAJOR BRIDGES 6-6 6.6. REPLACEMENT OF RAILWAY LEVEL CROSSINGS BY ROBS 6-6 6.7. SUMMARY OF COST OF IMPROVEMENT TO CORE NETWORK AT CURRENT RATES (COMPARATIVE COSTS) 6-6

7. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 7-1 7.1. Importance of Economic Analysis 7-1 7.2. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SH/MDR/ODR (WIDENING / STRENGTHENING) 7-1

7.2.1. Widening and strengthening 7-1

7.2.2. Single Lane/ Intermediate Lane Road and Two-Lane Road to Four-Lane Road 7-1

7.2.3. Economics of Widening SH/MDR/ODR from Single Lane to Two-lanes 7-1

7.2.4. Economics of Widening SH/MDR from Intermediate Lane to Two Lanes 7-1

7.2.5. Basis for Economic Analysis for Widening 7-1

7.2.6. Phasing 7-2

7.2.7. Details of EIRR 7-3

8. OUTLAYS & PHASING FOR IMPROVEMENTS FOR CORE NETWORK 8-1 8.1. IMPROVEMENTS PROPOSED 8-1 8.2. PHASING OF CORE NETWORK 8-1

8.2.1. Widening / Strengthening of Core Network 8-1

8.2.2. Replacement of railway level crossings by ROB(s) 8-1

8.2.3. REPLACEMENT OF PONTOON BRIDGES BY RCC BRIDGES 8-2 8.3. PROPOSAL FOR CONNECTING DISTRICT HEADQUARTERS TO LUCKNOW WITH 4-LANE HIGHWAY 8-5


8.3.2. District Head-Quarters already connected to Lucknow by 4-lane National Highway 8-5

8.3.3. District HQs to be connected under proposed construction programme 8-5




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8.3.4. District HQ located on 2-lane NHs through 2-laning with shoulder (GOI Funding) 8-6

8.3.5. 4-laning of Roads to connect remaining District HQs to Lucknow 8-7

9. UP-GRADATION PLAN 9-1 9.1. UP-GRADATION OF SH/MDR/ODR NOT COVERED IN THE CORE NETWORK 9-1

9.1.1. Criteria for Selecting State Highways (SH) 9-1

9.1.2. Major District Roads (MDR) 9-2 9.2. RURAL ROADS 9-2

9.2.1. ODRs and VRs 9-2 9.3. PROPOSED UPGRADED ROAD NETWORK FOR THE YEAR 2031 9-3 9.4. ROUGH COST OF UP-GRADATION OF ROADS 9-3 9.5. ROBs IN UP-GRADATION WORK 9-4 9.6. NEW BRIDGES OTHER THAN PROPOSED IN CORE NETWORK 9-4 9.7. REPLACEMENT OF PONTOON BRIDGES 9-5 9.8. CANAL BANK ROADS 9-5 9.9. BYPASSES AND RING ROADS 9-6

10. CONNECTIVITY STATUS OF HABITATIONS 10-1 10.1. INTRODUCTION 10-1 10.2. STATUS OF CONNECTIVITY UNDER PMGSY 10-2 10.3. STATUS OF CONNECTIVITY ACCORDING TO STATE PWD 10-2

11. IMPLEMENTATION PLAN 11-1 11.1. PREAMBLE 11-1 11.2. IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES 11-1

11.2.1. Mode of Financing 11-1

11.2.2. Mode of Implementation 11-1

11.2.3. Use of Technologies 11-2

11.2.4. Packaging 11-2

11.2.5. Environment & Social Aspects 11-2

11.2.6. Consolidation & Preservation of Road Assets 11-3

11.2.7. Over Loading of Vehicles 11-4 11.3. INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT ISSUES OF UP PWD 11-4

11.3.1. UPPWD - A Brief History 11-4

11.3.2. Current Functions of UPPWD 11-5

11.3.3. Vision Statement 11-6

11.3.4. SWOT Analysis 11-6

11.3.5. Suggestions for Re-organising the PWD 11-9 11.4. PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP (PPP) POTENTIAL 11-17


11.4.2. Appraisal of State Road Fund Policies 11-18

11.4.3. State Road Sector 11-18

11.4.4. Planning for the Future 11-18

11.4.5. Strategies for Implementing State Roads through PPP 11-19

11.4.6. Review of PPP Initiatives in Other States in India 11-20

11.4.7. NH Policy (Draft) for PPP 11-22

11.4.8. PPP on State Highways 11-23

11.4.9. Recent Empanelment Initiatives by NHAI 11-23

11.4.10. Evaluation of Various PPP Models 11-24

11.4.11. Specific Issues on PPP 11-27

11.4.12. Model Package for Core Network Roads on State Highways 11-29

11.4.13. Financial Analysis 11-30

11.4.14. State Highway Development Programme (SHDP) of GoUP 11-38 11.5. ROAD MAINTENANCE STRATEGIES 11-40 11.6. ROAD SAFETY FOCUS 11-43 11.7. ROAD MANAGEMENT SYSTEM 11-43 11.8. RESOURCE MOBILIZATION 11-44




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11.8.1. Key Objectives of SCRNMP 11-44

11.8.2. Project Rationale and Benefits 11-45

11.8.3. Implementation Agency and Funding Options 11-47

11.8.4. State Budget 11-49 11.9. WAY FORWARD 11-56

LIST OF TABLES

2.1 TEHSILS SHOWING PREDOMINANT URBAN CHARACTERISTICS

2.2 SAMPLE FORMAT FOR ZONING AREA DELINEATION

2.3 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES

2.4 DISRIBUTION OF INTERNAL & EXTERNAL TRIPS

2.5 DISTRIBUTION INTRA STATE TRIPS BY MODE OF TRAVEL

2.6 DISTRIBUTION INTRA STATE TRIPS BY PURPOSE OF TRAVEL

2.7 MAJOR PASSENGER TRIP GENERATING AND ATTRACTING

2.8 DISTRIBUTION OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC BY MOVEMENT

2.9 DISTRIBUTION OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC BY MODE

2.10 AVERAGE PAYLODS (TONNES)

2.11 AVERAGE LEAD OF GOODS VEHICLES

2.12 MAJOR FREIGHT TRAFFIC ATTRACTING AND PRODUCTION ZONES

2.13 OBSERVED PER CAPITA TRIP RATES-EXTRACTS FROM RELEVANT REGIONAL TRANSPORT STUDIES IN INDIA

2.14 ESTIMATED DAILY TRAVEL DEMAND ON REGIONAL ROAD SYSTEM FOR THE BASE YEAR – 2011

2.15 TRIP PRODUCTION AND ATTRACTION

2.16 DESIRABLE RANGE OF VARIATION BY FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION STANDARDS

2.17 PERCENT DIFFERENCE TARGETS FOR DAILY VOLUME GROUPINGS

2.18 PERCENT ERROR BY TRAFFIC VOLUME GROUP & ROADWAY DESIGNS

2.19 VALIDATION OF TRIP ASSIGNMENT BY FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION OF ROADS

2.20 PERCENT DIFFERENCE TARGETS FOR DAILY VOLUME GROUPINGS

2.21 PERCENT ERROR BY VOLUME GROUP AND ROADWAY DESIGN IN STUDY AREA

2.22 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF POPULATION

2.23 NET INCOME AT STATE & NATIONAL LEVEL

2.24 NET STATE INCOME OF UTTAR PRADESH (2004-10)

2.25 PER CAPITA INCOME AT CONSTANT PRICES

2.26 REVIEW OF RAILWAY EXPANSION STATUS

2.27 REVIEW OF EXISTING ROAD LENGTH STATUS IN INDIA

2.28 ACHIEVEMENT AND TARGETS OF INDIAN RAILWAYS – 11TH FIVE YEAR PLAN

2.29 TRENDS IN PASSENGER AND FREIGHT TRAFFIC – NR, LUCKNOW DIVISION

3.1 GROWTH TRENDS IN POPULATION OF UTTAR PRADESH

3.2 GROWTH RATES OF POPULATION

3.3 PROJECTED POPULATION BY GROWTH TRENDS

3.4 PROJECTED POPULATION IN HORIZON YEAR

3.5 ZONE WISE POPULATION PROJECTION

3.6 TRENDS IN WORKERS

3.7 PROJECTED WORKERS POPULATION

3.8 ZONE WISE WORKERS PROJECTION

3.9 INTRAZONAL TRAFFIC FORECAST SUMMARY

3.10 MODE-WISE VEHICLE REGISTRATION & NSDP

3.11 ELASTICITY COEFFICIENTS

3.12 MODEWISE ELASTICITY VALUES

3.13 ADOPTED MODEWISE GROWTH RATES FOR BAU SCENARIO

3.14 ADOPTED MODEWISE GROWTH RATES FOR OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO

3.15 ADOPTED GROWTH RATES FOR REALISTIC SCENARIO

3.16 MODE WISE INTER-REGIONAL TRAFFIC FORECAST SUMMARY WITH DIFFERENT SCENARIOS

3.17 TRAFFIC FORECAST SUMMARY

3.18 MODE WISE TRAFFIC FORECAST SUMMARY

3.19 DETAILS OF PROPOSED MAJOR ROAD PROPOSALS PROJECTS IN UTTAR PRADESH

4.1 WEIGHTINGS FOR VARIOUS ATTRIBUTES




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4.2 (A): DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL INDEX (RURAL)

4.2 (B): DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL INDEX (URBAN)

4.3: RANKING OF DISTRICTS BY DPI (RURAL & URBAN)

4.4 (A) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY POP AT DISTRICT LEVEL – RURAL

4.4 (B) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY DPI AT DISTRICT LEVEL – RURAL

4.4 (C) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY DPI & POP AT DISTRICT LEVEL – RURAL

4.5 (A) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY POP AT DISTRICT LEVEL – URBAN

4.5 (B) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY DPI AT DISTRICT LEVEL – URBAN

4.5 (C) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY POP & DPI AT DISTRICT LEVEL – URBAN

4.6 ASSIGNED WEIGHTS TO PARAMETERS

4.7 ASSIGNED WEIGHTS TO INDIVIDUAL MEASURES OF PARAMETERS

4.8 EVALUATION OF SCENARIOS

4.9 SUMMARY OF INITIAL STRATEGIC CORE NETWORK

4.10 ASSIGNED WEIGHTS PARAMETERS – REVISED AND FINAL

4.11 RANGES OF SORES ACHIEVED FOR SH AND MDR CATEGORY

4.12 SUMMARY OF FINAL CORE NETWORK

4.13 SCORING ACHIEVED ON SH AND MDR

6.1 NEW NATIONAL HIGHWAYS DECLARED IN UP STATE

6.2 BASIC RATE OF MATERIALS

6.3 TYPICAL COST OF IMPROVEMENTS

7.1 SUGGESTED PHASING

8.1 COST OF IMPROVEMENTS OF SH/MDR/ODR IN CORE NETWORK IN EACH PHASE (RS IN CRORE)

8.2 PHASE-WISE COST ESTIMATE FOR STRATEGIC CORE NETWORK (2014-2031) – WITH ESCALATION @6% PER ANNUM

8.3 DISTRICT HQ ALREADY CONNECTED TO LUCKNOW BY 4-LANE NH

8.4 CONNECTIVITY OF DISTRICT HQ. WITH NH

8.5 CONNECTIVITY OF DISTRICT HQ. WITH NH THROUGH GOI SCHEME

8.6 LIST OF DISTRICT HQS ON 2-LANE NHS FOR WHICH UP GOVT. HAVE REQUESTED GOI FOR 4-LANING OR 2-LANE WITH

SHOULDER

8.7 4-LANING OF SH PROPOSED/ UNDER CONSTRUCTION FOR CONNECTING DISTRICT HQS WITH LUCKNOW

8.8 4-LANE SHS UNDER CONSTRUCTION BY UPSHA

8.9 UP PWD’S PROGRAMME OF 4-LANING ROADS TO CONNECT DISTRICT HQS TO LUCKNOW

9.1 PROPOSED ROAD NETWORK FOR 2031

9.2 LENGTH OF ROADS TO BE UPGRADED

9.3 COST OF UP-GRADATION

9.4 PHASING OF UP-GRADATION OF ROADS

9.5 COST ABSTRACT AND PHASING OF UP-GRADATION

10.1 HABITATIONS LEFT FOR APPROVAL WITH POP MORE THAN 1000 (CENSUS 2001)

10.2 STATUS OF CONNECTIVITY (PMGSY) & (UPPWD)

10.3 SUMMARY OF HABITATIONS TO BE CONNECTED ON BASIS OF SINGLE CONNECTIVITY WITH CONNECTING ROADS

HAVING POPULATION 500 AND ABOVE AS PER CENSUS 2001 WHICH ARE NOT CONSIDERED IN PMGSY

10.4 SUMMARY OF HABITATIONS TO BE CONNECTED ON BASIS OF SINGLE CONNECTIVITY WITH CONNECTING ROADS

HAVING POPULATION BETWEEN 250-499 AS PER CENSUS 2001 WHICH ARE NOT CONSIDERED IN PMGSY

10.5 ZONEWISE WORK PLAN SUMMARY OF UNCONNECTED HABITATIONS TO BE CONNECTED WITH CONNECTING ROADS

HAVING POPULATION LESS THAN 250 AS PER CENSUS 2001 WHICH ARE NOT CONSIDERED IN PMGSY

10.6 BLOCKWISE WORK PLAN SUMMARY OF UNCONNECTED HABITATIONS TO BE CONNECTED WITH CONNECTING

ROADS HAVING POPULATION LESS THAN 250 AS PER CENSUS 2001 WHICH ARE NOT CONSIDERED IN PMGSY

10.7 SUMMARY OF UNCONNECTED HABITATIONS

11.1 IDENTIFIED STATE HIGHWAYS FOR PPP IMPLEMENTATION

11.2 RESULTS OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ON SELECT STATE HIGHWAYS

11.3 UP STATE HIGHWAY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME

11.4 SAVINGS IN FUEL AND VEHICLE OPERATING COST FROM ROAD IMPROVEMENTS TO STRATEGIC CORE NETWORK

11.5 SUMMARY & PHASING OF PROGRAM (IMPROVEMENT TO CORE NETWORK0

11.6 BUDGETARY ALLOCATIONS IN UTTAR PRADESH – ROADS AND BRIDGES

11.7 CAPITAL OUTLAYS IN VARIOUS STATES

11.8 PROPOSED BUDGETARY ALLOCATIONS IN CORE ROAD NETWORK FROM EXISTING SCHEMES / HEADS

11.9 PROPOSED PHASE-WISE ALLOCATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CORE NETWORK FROM STATE

BUDGET, CENTRAL FUNDS & OTHER SCHEMES INCLUDING MULTI-LATERAL BORROWINGS AND PPP

POTENTIAL




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LIST OF FIGURES

2.1 MODAL DEVELOPMENT WORK FLOW IN CUBE VOYAGER

2.2 METHODOLOGY FOR TRAFFIC ZONE FORMATION

2.3 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES

2.4(a to c) MOVEMENT PATTERN OF INTRASTATE & INTERSTATE PASSENGER TRIPS

2.5 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORT MODEL

2.6 DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORT DEMAND MODEL – FLOW CHART

2.7 CALIBRATION OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODEL

2.8 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN TRIP PROD WITH POPULATION

2.9 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN TRIP PROD WITH INCOME

2.10 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT I) TRIP PROD WITH POPULATION

2.11 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT II) TRIP PROD WITH POPULATION

2.12 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT III) TRIP PROD WITH POPULATION

2.13 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS

2.14 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN TRIP ATTRAC WITH INCOME

2.15 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT I) TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS

2.16 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT II) TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS

2.17 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT III) TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS

2.18 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH WORKERS

2.19 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH INCOME

2.20 SCATTER PLOT FOR INDUSTRIAL FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH WORKERS

2.21 SCATTER PLOT FOR INDUSTRIAL FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH INCOME

2.22 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT I) FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH WORKERS

2.23 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT II) FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH WORKERS

2.24 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT III) FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH WORKERS

2.25 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS

2.26 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH PER CAPITA INCOME

2.27 SCATTER PLOT FOR INDUSTRIAL FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS

2.28 SCATTER PLOT FOR INDUSTRIAL FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH INCOME

2.29 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT I) FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS

2.30 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT II) FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS

2.31 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT III) FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS

2.32 TLFD PLOT BETWEEN OBSERVED AND ESTIMATED TRIPS

2.33 CUMULATIVE TLFD PLOT BETWEEN OBSERVED AND ESTIMATED TRIPS

2.34 BASE YEAR TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT - COMBINED PCU

2.35 BASE YEAR TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT - COMBINED PCU (TRAFFIC LOADS ON LINKS GREATER THAN 5000 PCU)

2.36 POPULATION GROWTH IN UP STATE

2.37 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE IN PERCENTAGE

2.38 GROWTH OF WORKING POPULATION IN UP

2.39 WORKERS PROFILE IN UP STATE

2.40 PER CAPITA INCOMES (REGION WISE) – CURRENT PRICES

2.41 TRENDS IN ROAD AND RAIL TRAFFIC (FREIGHT) SHARE

3.1 (a to c) REGRESSION PLOTS – MODE WISE VEHICLES ON NSDP

3.2 (a to f) TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT – COMBINED PCU (PASS AND GOODS) FOR BASE AND HORIZON YEARS

3.3a HORIZON YEAR NETWORK – 2016

3.3b HORIZON YEAR NETWORK – 2021

3.3c HORIZON YEAR NETWORK – 2026

3.3d HORIZON YEAR NETWORK – 2032

4.1 METHODOLOGY ADOPTED FOR SETTLEMENT ANALYSIS

4.2 DISTRIBUTION OF DISTRICTS BY DPI

4.3 DISTRICT WISE RANKINGS BY DPI

4.4 APPROACH METHODOLOGY TOWARDS IDENTIFICATION OF CORE NETWORK

4.5 BASE YEAR NETWORK MAP

4.6 CORE ROAD NETWORK OF UP

4.7 CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT PLOT

6.1 1-LANE ROAD TO 4-LANE ROAD WITHOUT PAVED SHOULDER

6.2 1.5-LANE ROAD TO 4-LANE ROAD WITHOUT PAVED SHOULDER




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6.5 1-LANE TO 2-LANE ROAD WITHOUT PAVED SHOULDER

5.6 1-LANE ROAD TO 2-LANE ROAD WITH PAVED SHOULDER

6.7 1.5-LANE ROAD TO 2-LANE ROAD WITHOUT PAVED SHOULDER

6.8 1.5-LANE ROAD TO 2-LANE ROAD WITH PAVED SHOULDER


6.10 2-LANE ROAD TO 2-LANE ROAD WITH PAVED SHOULDER

6.11 NEW 4-LANE ROAD (WITHOUT PAVED SHOULDER)

8.1 PHASING PLAN – 2014-17

8.2 PHASING PLAN (2014-31)

11.1 SUGGESTED HIERARCHY OF PUBLIC WORKS

11.2 ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE OF ENGINEER-IN-CHIEF

11.3 FRAMEWORK FOR PPP POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT

11.4 MAJOR PHASES OF ROAD PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND DELIVERY

11.5 VARIOUS SOURCES OF FUNDING

11.6 BUDGET TRENDS IN UP – ROADS AND BRIDGES

11.7 EXISTING BUDGET ALLOCATION IN ROAD SECTOR IN UP (2013-2014)

11.8 TRENDS IN STATE AND CENTRAL BUDGET IN WIDENING / STRENGTHENING OF SH, MDR & ODR

11.9 SOURCES OF FUNDING

LIST OF ANNEXURES

VOLUME 1 ANNEXURE A-4.1 (a) DISTRICT WISE DATA COMPILATION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PARAMETERS - RURAL BLOCK

ANNEXURE A-4.1 (b) DISTRICT WISE DATA COMPILATION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PARAMETERS - URBAN BLOCK ANNEXURE A-4.2 (a) DISTRICT WISE DISPARITY INDEX (NUMERICAL DISPARITY) FOR RURAL BLOCKS ANNEXURE A-4.2 (b) DISTRICT WISE DISPARITY INDEX PER UNIT POPULATION FOR RURAL BLOCKS ANNEXURE A-4.2 (c) DISTRICT WISE DISPARITY INDEX (NUMERICAL DISPARITY) FOR URBAN BLOCKS ANNEXURE A-4.2 (d) DISTRICT WISE DISPARITY INDEX PER UNIT POPULATION FOR URBAN BLOCKS ANNEXURE A-4.3 (a) DISTRICT WISE CFI & DPI COMPUTATIONS AND RANKING (RURAL) ANNEXURE A-4.3 (b) DISTRICT WISE CFI & DPI COMPUTATIONS AND RANKING (URBAN)

VOLUME II ANNEXURE B-4.1 NETWORK ATTRIBUTES COMPILED AT DISTRICT LEVEL

ANNEXURE B-4.2 CORE ROAD NETWORK - STATE HIGHWAYS ANNEXURE B-4.3 CORE ROAD NETWORK - MAJOR DISTRICT ROADS ANNEXURE B-4.4 CORE ROAD NETWORK - OTHER DISTRICT ROADS ANNEXURE B-5.1(A) ANALYSIS OF OPTIONS FOR PAVEMENTS ANNEXURE B-5.1(B) DESIGN PARAMETERS – RIGID PAVEMENT ANNEXURE B-5.1(C) ANALYSIS OF RATES ANNEXURE B-5.2 LIFE CYCLE COST ANALYSIS ANNEXURE B-6.1 COST ESTIMATE OF CORE ROAD NETWORK (CORRIDOR & INDIVIDUAL ROAD SECTIONS) ANNEXURE B-6.3A PROPOSALS FOR MAJOR BRIDGES ON STATE HIGHWAYS – CORE ROAD NETWORK ANNEXURE B-6.3B PROPOSALS FOR MAJOR BRIDGES ON MAJOR DISTRICT ROADS – CORE ROAD NETWORK ANNEXURE B-6.3B PROPOSALS FOR MAJOR BRIDGES ON OTHER DISTRICT ROADS – CORE ROAD NETWORK ANNEXURE B-6.3D COST OF MAJOR BRIDGES ( NEW) ANNEXURE B-6.4 PROPOSALS FOR ROB IN CORE NETWORK (TVU MORE THAN 1,00,000) ANNEXURE B-7.1 EIRR & PHASING OF CORE NETWORK ANNEXURE B-9.1 UP-GRADATION OF MDR/ODR TO STATE HIGHWAY ANNEXURE B-9.2 UP-GRADATION OF ODR TO MDR ANNEXURE B-9.3 UP-GRADATION OF VR TO ODR ANNEXURE B-9.4 PROPOSAL FOR R.O.B IN OTHER THAN CORE NETWORK (TVU MORE THAN 100000) ANNEXURE B-9.5 LIST OF NEW BRIDGES ANNEXURE B-9.6 LIST OF PONTOON BRIDGES TO BE REPLACED BY NEW RCC BRIDGES ANNEXURE B-9.7 LIST OF IDENTIFIED CANAL ROADS ANNEXURE B-9.8 LIST OF BYPASSES / RING ROADS




April 2014


ABBREVIATIONS A

N

ADT Average Daily Traffic NABARD National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development

ADB Asian Development Bank NAREGA National Rural Employment Gaurantee Act

APCP Assam PWD Computerisation Project NCR National Capital Region

ASI Annual Survey of Industries NCR North Central Railways

ATL Average Trip Length NER North Eastern Railways

ATMS Advance Traffic Management System NEFR Northeast Frontier Railways

NG Narrow Gauge

B

NH National Highway

BAU Business as Usual NHAI National Highway Authority of India Limited

BC Bituminous Concrete NHDP National Highway Development Programme

BG Broad Gauge NIC National Informatics Center

BOO Build Own Operate NOIDA New Okhla Industrial Development Authority

BOOT Build Own Operate Transfer NPV Net Present Value

BOT Built Operate Transfer NR Northern Railways

BOQ Bill of Quantities NRRDA National Rural Road Development Agency

BPL Below Poverty Line NRI Non Resident Indian

BPKM Billion Passenger Kilometer NSDP Net State Domestic Product

BTKM Billion Tonne Kilometer NWR North Western Railways

BTO Build Transfer Operate

BSNL Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited O

OD Origin-Destination

C

ODR Other District Road

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate OG Outer Growth

CBR California Bearing Ratio O&M Operation and Maintainance

CC Cement Concrete OMMS Online Management and Monitoring System

CDO Central Design Office OPRC Output and Performance based Road Maintainance Contract

CDS Cross Drainage Structure

CEPT Common Effluent Tratment Plant P

CFI Cumulative Function Index PCI Per Capita Income

COI Census of India PCI Pavement Condition Index

CPWD Central Public Works Department PCU Passenger Car Unit

CR Central Railways PMC Premix Carpet

CRN Core Road Network PMGSY Pradhan Mantri Gramin Sadak Yojna

CSO Central Statistical Organisation POL Petrolium Oil and Lubricants

CT Cantonment PPP Public Private Partnership

CV Commercial Vehicle PWD Public Works Department

CWC CentralWarehousing Corporation

D

Q

DASP Diversified Agricultural Support Prrgramme QC/QA Quality Check/Quality Assurance

DBFO Design Build Finance Operate QTY Quantity

DBFOT Design Build Finance Operate Transfer

DDP District Domestic Product R

DFC Dedicated Freight Corridor RAM Road Asset Management

DFCCIL Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited

RCC Reinforcement Cement Concrete

DI Disparity Index RCU Road Capacity Utilization

DMIC Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor R&D Research and Development

DPI Development Potential Index RES Rural Engineering Services

DPR Detail Project Report RFAQ Request for Annual Qualification

DSCR Debt Service Coverage Ratio RFID Radio Frequency Identification

RFP Request for Proposal




April 2014


ABBREVIATIONS E

RGGVY Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyuteekaran Yojana

ECR Eastern Central Railways RKVY Rastriya Krishi Vikas Yojna

ECoR Eastern Coast Railways RNI Road Network Inventory

EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return RNMP Road Network Master Plan

EME Earth Moving Equipment ROB Road over Bridge

EPZ Export Processing Zone ROW Right of Way

ER Eastern Railways R&R Rehabilitation and Resettlement

ETC Electronic Toll Collection RTC Road Transport Corporation

RUB Road under Bridge

F

RSA Road Safety Audit

FDI Foreign Direct Investment

FIDIC International Federation of Consulting Engineers

S

FIRR Financial Internal Rate of Return SC/ST Schedule Caste/Schedule Tribe

FTWZ Free Trade Warehousing Zone SCR South Central Railways

SCRNMP Strategic Core Road Network Master Plan

G

SD Surface Dressing

GAIL Gas Authority of India Limited SDBC Semi Dense Bituminous Carpet

GDP Gross Domestic Product SER South East Railways

GIS Geographic Information System SECR South East Central Railways

GNIDA Greater Noida Industrial Development Authority

SEZ Special Economic Zone

GOI Government of India SH State Highway

GOUP Government of Uttar Pradesh SLC State Level Committee

GPS Global Positioning System SME Small and Medium Enterprises

GSB Granular sub-base SPV Special Purpose Vehicle

GSDP Gross State Domestic Product SR Southern Railways

SRDP State Road Development Programme

H

SRF State Road Fund

HCM Heavy Construction Machinery SRS Sample Registration System

HDM Highway Development and Management Model

SWOT Strength Weakness Opportunity Threat

HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle SWP State Water Policy

HOD Head of Department SWR South Western Railways

I

T

ICD Inland Container Depot TAZ Traffic Area Zone

INR Indian Rupees TDM Transport Demand Model

IPT Intermediate Para Transit TEU Twenty Foot Equivalent unit

IR Indian Railways TFR Total Fertility Rate

IRC Indian Road Congress TLFD Trip Length Frequency Distribution

IRR Internal Rate of Return TMC Turning Movement Count

IT Information Technology TNRDC Tamil Nadu Road Development Company

IWT Inland Water Transport TOR Terms of Reference

TVC Traffic Volume Count

J

TVU Train Vehicle Unit

JNNURM

Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission

TWT Thin White Topping

JNPT Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust

JRY Jawahar Rojgar Yojna U

ULB Urban Local Bodies

K

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

KMPH Kilometer per hour UP Uttar Pradesh

KWH Kilowatt Hour UPEIDA Uttar Pradesh Expressway Industrial Development Authority

UPNET Uttar Pradesh Wide Area Network

L

UPPWD Uttar Pradesh Public Works Department




April 2014


ABBREVIATIONS LCV Light Commercial Vehicle UPRNNL Uttar Pradesh Rajkiya Nirman Nigam Limited

LOS Level of Service UPSBCL Uttar Pradesh State Bridge Corporation Limited

LQ Location Quotient UPSIDC Uttar Pradesh State Industrial Development Corporation Limited

UPSHA Uttar Pradesh State Highway Authority

M

UPSRP Uttar Pradesh State Road Project

MAV Multi Axle Vehicle UPSRTC Uttar Pradesh State Road Transport Corporation

MB Municipal Boundary UT Union Territories

MC Municipal Corporation UTWT Ultra Thin White Topping

MCA Model Concession Agreement

MDR Major District Road V

MG Meter Gauge V/C Volume/Capacity

MICE Meeting Incentive Conference and Exhibition VGF Viability Gap Funding

MNC Multi National Company VOC Vehicle Operating Cost

MoCI Ministry of Commerce and Industries VOT Value of Time

MOEF Ministry of Environment and Forests VR Village Road

MORD Ministry of Rural Development

MORTH

Ministry of Road Transport & Highways W

MRTS Mass Rapid Transit System WMM Wet Mix Macadam

MSA Millions of Standard Axles WPI Wholesale Price Index

WR Western Railways

WCR West Central Railways




April 2014


P a g e | 1-1

VISION STATEMENT

1. VISION STATEMENT

1.1. PREAMBLE

i. As per well-documented publications, India will be a “Developed” Nation by 2020,

with a GDP growth rate of 8.5–9.0 per cent over the period 2007–2020, and its

economy will rank 4th in the world, after USA, China and Japan (Ref 1).

ii. Though UP have several weaknesses such as low literacy level, over-dependence on

agriculture, average infrastructure - challenging opportunities present themselves in

overcoming the past slow economic growth. Road transport will entail greater role in

making UP’s economy grow and reach All-India level standards.

iii. The targets for roads laid down in the Nation’s Lucknow Plan (1981-2001) have not

been achieved in UP. The road length is only 80 per cent of the targeted length of

2001. The State Highway length achieved is only 20 per cent of the 2001 target (Ref

9). Thus, UP shall have to make greater efforts to enlarge the middle hierarchy

segments i.e. SH and MDR network(s).

iv. Some of the targets that can be laid down are:

- Four-laning of carriageway of heavily trafficked SH with traffic above 15,000

PCU/day as per IRC:64 (Ref. 15)

- Strengthening of MDR

- Construction of bypasses for Cities having a population of above 5 lakh

- Reconstruction of weak and narrow bridges

- Provision of bridges at un-bridged crossing

- Conversion of Railway Level Crossings to ROBs / RUBs where the multiplication

of number of vehicles and number of trains i.e. train vehicle units exceeds

1,00,000

- Full connectivity to villages of population above 250 people

- Construction of 2849 km of Expressways, already identified by UPEIDA

reproduced.

v. Maintenance of roads and road assets shall be modernised by developing a GIS

based Road Information System with a sustainable and implementable plan. The

planning, budgeting and execution of maintenance of road infrastructure will be done

by a computerised ‘Road Maintenance Management System’.

vi. Consider alternative pavement options such as cement concrete roads, soil

stabilisation and composite pavements.

vii. Use of geo-textiles as crack-arresting layer

viii. Use of fly-ash in embankments

ix. Use of standardised spans for bridge construction and precast elements for

replacement of weak brick masonry arch bridges

x. Strengthening the Contracting Industry by enabling the Contractors to procure new

and modern equipment on hire/lease, providing facilities with capacity building to train

foremen and operators and standardising the Contract Documentation




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xi. The record of Road Safety of UP is not very good and can be ranked average.

Concerted efforts are needed to have better engineered roads, carrying out periodic

and regular ‘Road Safety Audit’ and ensuring ‘Safety in Construction Zones,

xii. Since UP has scarcity of stone materials and aggregates, efforts should be made to

minimise its use by resorting to soil-stabilisation and cement concrete roads. Cement

concrete roads can also serve to minimise the country’s dependence on bitumen,

which is becoming scarcer and costlier, as the World Petroleum Crude Reserves dry

up in coming years

xiii. Treatment of sodic soil should be given attention in the affected areas

xiv. Use of Jute and Coir-Reinforced Geo-Fabrics for slope protection should be

encouraged

xv. Apart from building by-passes to relieve congestion on urban roads, use of

interlocking concrete blocks and white-topping should be favoured when improving

urban streets. Dedicated Bus Rapid Transit corridors shall be planned in big cities

xvi. Energy conservation should receive high priority and adoption of concrete roads is a

proven measure to reduce energy consumption

xvii. In order to ensure that the large investments planned for the road sector are properly

spent it is necessary that good quality management systems are put in place.

1.2. VISION STATEMENT FOR ROAD DEVELOPMENT

1.2.1. Background

The Uttar Pradesh Public Works Department are wanting to formulate a Vision Statement

and preparing the ‘Strategic Road Master Plan’ for Roads in the State, with emphasis on

identifying the ‘Core Network’. The consultancy services for the project have been awarded

to Srei Infrastructure Finance Limited (SIFL) in association with L.R. Kadiyali and

Associates (LRKA). The study has been implemented in stages and this chapter presents a

broad vision statement conceived by the Consultants’ after studying various transport,

engineering and economic aspects.

1.2.2. India’s Vision for Year 2020

As a background for preparing the Vision Statement for Road Development in UP,

Consultants feel that it is necessary to have a perception of India’s Vision for 2020 for the

economic development. It may be noted here that the Planning Commission, Government

of India, had constituted a Committee in May, 2000 to formulate the country’s Vision 2020.

The Committee’s submitted its Report in 2002 (Ref-1). Another useful document on India

2020 has been authored by Dr. APJ. Abdul Kalam (past President of India) and Dr. Y.S.

Rajan (Ref-2). These two references serve as landmark contributions on how India is

expected to grow in the first two decades of the present millennium. They stir the

imagination and motivate all segments of society to greater effort. The salient features of

these documents are:

i. India can achieve a growth rate of 8.5 to 9.0 per cent over the period 2000–2020,

resulting in quadrupling the real per capita income and almost eliminating the

proportion of Indians below poverty line.

ii. India will be a ‘Developed” Nation by 2020, its economy which is ranked 11th among

207 Countries of the World in 2000 will rank 4th in the year 2020, after the U.S.A.,

China and Japan. India will no longer be a Low Income Country and will move into

the category of Upper Middle Income Country (Ref 1).

iii. By 2020, the people of India will be more numerous, better educated, healthier and

more prosperous than at any time in our long history. The nation will be bustling with




April 2014


P a g e | 1-3

energy, entrepreneurship and innovation.

iv. The country will have the advantage of a demographic profile with the majority of the

population in the working younger age group.

v. India will be transforming from an agrarian economy into a modern multi-dimensional

enterprise.

vi. India will be fully integrated into the global economy and will be a major player in

world trade.

vii. India will have a global advantage in the Information Technology (IT) Sector and

Knowledge-Based resources.

viii. In the Agricultural sector, India is entering the Post-Green Revolution Stage,

diversifying cropping patterns and increasing food processing. A ‘Second Green

Revolution’ is now being deliberated and discussed upon. A sustained growth rate of

4.0 to 4.5 per cent in the Agricultural sector is possible. India will emerge as a major

food exporting country after feeding its growing population.

ix. In the field of Education, India will achieve 100 per cent school enrolment in the age

group of 6 to 14. A 100 per cent literate India by 2020 is within the grasp of

achievement, given the present and future emphasis on education.

1.2.3. India’s Core Strengths and Inherent Weaknesses

Achieving the vision of a ‘Developed Country’ by year 2020, India’s core strengths are:

i. Its human resources base, with a favourable working age group

ii. Its vast natural resources base of ores and minerals

iii. Its rich biodiversity, abundant sunshine, varied agro-climate conditions with plenty of

rainfall and a vast sea-coast line.

iv. Its political stability with a democratic set-up

Some of the weaknesses are:

- India’s over-dependence on imported petroleum crude as a major source of energy

- Inadequate supply of infrastructure, particularly in the sectors of transport,

electricity and urban development (Ref 2)

- Environmental concerns, with growing global pressure on reduction of emissions,

just when the country is set to achieve a high growth rate

- Water shortages in major urban settlements

- Depleting forest reserves

1.2.4. Vision for Economic Development during 2011-2031

It must be noted that some States like Andhra Pradesh (Ref 3), Assam (Ref 4), Chattisgarh

(Ref 5) and Jharkhand (Ref 6) have also formulated ‘Vision Documents’ on the lines similar

to Planning Commission’s (Ref 1). As regards Uttar Pradesh, a document on UP’s

Development was prepared by the Planning Commission (Ref 7). Some of the major

strategies and recommendations in this study are:

i. There is a need to mobilise resources and funds for road development in the State

and to promote development

ii. With UP’s strength lying in its strong agricultural base, a new Green Revolution with

emphasis on diversification, agro-processing and better water management is the

need of the hour




April 2014


P a g e | 1-4

iii. UP must give top priority to rapid industrialisation. SEZs need to be created at places

such as Agra, Gorakhpur, Allahabad and Varanasi, besides the already planned ones

at Moradabad, Kanpur and Greater NOIDA

iv. Unorganised manufacturing in rural areas (handloom, handicrafts etc.) should be

encouraged

v. Policies conducive to ‘Private Participation’ should be adopted

vi. Introduction of e-Governance should be made mandatory.

vii. Transport infrastructure connecting regions and big business centres should be

improved.

Other experts have also studied UP’s present status of development and have mapped the

road ahead (Ref. 12). The salient observations are:

i. Though Uttar Pradesh is the largest State in the Country, it is presumed as also one

of the most backward in the country. The per capita income of UP, which was on par

with the National Level at the time of Independence, is now roughly half the National

Level. The economic growth rate has been slow and halting, leading to high levels of

poverty. Levels of health and education are areas of concern.

ii. There are sharp inter-regional variations in terms of economic and social

development. The western region is relatively more prosperous, the Central and

Bundelkhand Regions fall in the middle and the Eastern Region is the poorest.

iii. In terms of development, the State has been consistently moving on a downhill

course.

iv. In the infrastructure sector, the situation is poor. The power situation is dismal and the

road infrastructure is grossly inadequate. On the industrial front a lot needs to be

organised for favourable conditions.

v. Due to rural orientation of its economy, the State is not able to share in the gains

coming from the rapid growth of services and the manufacturing sector which are

prime movers of growth.

vi. There is a progressive decline in public investment in the successive plans, which

has reflected in the deceleration in the growth of state economy.

vii. Removing the infrastructure gap should receive the highest priority.

1.2.5. Vision for Road Development in UP for 2031

1.2.5.1. General

Uttar Pradesh with its 2,36,286 sq.km of area (representing 7.2 per cent of India’s share)

and with its population of 200 million (representing 16 per cent of India’s) (Ref 8) has a

great tradition of cultural, spiritual and political strengths and has been the bedrock of past

achievement of India and should form the foundation of the country’s future

accomplishments. With India having a vision to become the fourth largest economy in the

world in the near future, the role UP has to perform assumes great importance. The State

has several inherent strengths such as a vast, fertile and irrigated land, a sound agrarian

base, a vast human resource and a reputed class of civil engineers. However, it suffers

from certain weaknesses such as neglect of education, health, industry and infrastructure in

the past. Challenging opportunities present themselves in overcoming the past neglect and

taking the State to at least the all-India level, if not surpassing it.




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1.2.5.2. Role of Transport System in Improving UP’s Economy

Transport and economic development are closely inter-related, the ones that influence each

other. Though the State is having a good network of railways, rail transport has its own

limitations, particularly in a State like UP where nearly 80 per cent of its population live in its

scattered villages. A good road network is a basic requirement, if the State has to move

ahead in sectors like Agriculture, Trade, Industry, Tourism, Health and Education.

1.2.5.3. Targets laid down in Lucknow Plan (1981-2001) & Achievements / Gaps

The 1981-2001 IRC Road Development Plan, commonly known as the Lucknow Plan had

laid down definite norms for determining the length of each category of roads. The targets

calculated from the criteria contained in the document (for 2001) (Ref 9) and the actual

achievements (in 2011) (Ref 10) are as under:

Category Targets 2001

(Km)

Targets in Vision

2021 Document

(Km)

The reported length up to

(3/2011)

NH 5,888 5,864(3)

NH-6881

SH 9,637

(1)

34,497(2)

11,727

(3)

SH- 7957

MDR 59,310 23454(3)

MDR-7307

ODR/VR 254,662 Not Given

ODR-32986

VR-127689

UNPAVED-1154

Total

286982

Others - OTHER-125153

Total 309127

(1) On the basis 50 km grid

(2) On the basis of connectivity to all towns.

(3) On the basis of UP’s area as against India’s area.

1.2.5.4. Immediate Requirements of Road Network Expansion

It is thus apparent that the present road network in UP is grossly inadequate when

compared to the targets laid down for 2001. The length is just 56% of what was targeted.

The gap to be covered is very huge. The vision for the State should be firstly to bridge the

gap immediately. The length of SHs now in 2011 is 83% of what was targeted for the year

2001. The length of MDR in 2011 is only 12 per cent of what was targeted for 2001. In

village portion 15,845 km - CC Road has also been constructed up to 3/2011. As far as

ODR and rural roads are concerned the target has been achieved. Specifically, the efforts

should be to expand the SH and MDR network. In selecting new roads for being classified

as SH, a minimum length of each individual SH shall be 100 km. Similarly, the minimum

length of MDR shall be 40 km. The SH network shall be expanded to serve district

headquarters, sub-divisional headquarters, major industrial centres, places of commercial

interest, and places of tourist importance and major agricultural markets. The MDR network

should be expanded to connect all development block headquarters, towns and villages

with a population of above 5,000, which are not directly connected to NH or SH. The ODR

network shall be expanded to serve and connect villages with population of above 2,500

which are not connected with higher order roads.

1.2.5.5. Removal of Deficiencies in the Roads

Apart from expansion of the road network, the vision for the future will be to remove various

deficiencies in the present roads such as inadequate carriageway width leading to

congestion, delay, economic losses and road accidents, inadequate pavement thickness,

poor riding quality, weak and narrow bridges and culverts, absence of bypasses/ ring roads

at major settlements, un-bridged crossings, absence of Railway Overbridges at busy level

crossings and poor geometrics.




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The following targets will be laid down:

i. Four-laning of carriageway of SH having traffic greater than 15,000 PCU/day by the

year 2015.

ii. Two-laning of carriageway of the balance length of SH spread into stages as under:

2013–2021 15,000 km 2021–2031 13,500 km

iii. Two-laning of 40 per cent of MDR length, i.e. 24,000 Km spread into stages as under:

2013–2021 12,000 Km 2021–2031 12,000 Km

iv. Construction of Bypasses for congested habitations, targeting initially cities with

population above 5 lakh

v. Reconstruction of weak and narrow culverts and bridges

vi. Provision of bridges at un-bridged crossings

vii. Conversion of railway level crossing to ROBs where the multiplication of daily traffic on

the road and the number of trains i.e. TUV is more than I lakh per day.

viii. Removal of substandard geometrics and improvement of accident black spots to be

achieved by the year 2021.

ix. Construction of Expressways.

The following is the vision for village connectivity to be achieved as per the NRRDA’s Rural

Road Vision Document (Ref 11). The total habitation as per COI 2001 estimates in UP are

2.16 lakh. Unconnected habitations are about 43186. UP will achieve the vision of

connectivity of settlements by 2025. 36965 habbitations below 500 populations are

unconnected presently.

Category

Total Habitations (as per 2001

Census)

As per PMGSY As per

UPPWD

Remark Connected (upto Apr-

12)

Balance (upto Apr-12)

Habitation Sanctioned (in 12-13)

Balance (Apr-13)

Balance (Apr-13)

1000 > 41322 41315 7 0 7 1153 The diff. in Bal of

PMSGY and UPPWD un-connected

habitation is due to

change in Standard

followed for connectivity

500 to 999 49573 48855 718 685 33 5068

250 to 499 55616 37731 17885 70 17815 17835

< 250 70051 44843 25208 2 25206 19130

Total 216562 172744 43818 757 43061 43186

1.2.5.6. Maintenance

It shall be the endeavour of the Government to maintain the entire road network and

bridges in a good condition at all times of the year. The roads shall be pot-hole free, have a

good riding quality and have the traffic signs and road markings in a good condition. All

encroachments shall be removed as soon as noticed. It also suggested carrying out regular

traffic census as prescribed by the Indian Roads Congress. A web-enabled road

information system, containing the full details of the network, shall be developed on a GIS




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platform. The maintenance of roads and bridges shall be planned, budgeted and executed

on the basis of a computerised Maintenance Management System. Efforts will be made to

introduce mechanised maintenance operations with the use of mobile equipment, pot-hole

repairing machines and slurry seal machines, gradually reducing the gang-labour oriented

manual maintenance operations.

1.2.5.7. Alternative Pavement Options

Considering that UP has very limited resources of stone aggregates which involve very long

leads, and bitumen which is petroleum crude based is likely to become very scarce in the

coming years, the alternative of cement concrete pavement will be considered whenever

new roads are planned. The substitution of granular sub-bases and bases by soil-cement

stabilized layers and other proven stabilisation techniques shall be considered. For

strengthening existing bituminous pavements, white-topping shall be considered. The long-

term strategy shall be to convert all bituminous surfaces by cement concrete. A life-cycle-

cost analysis shall be carried out and a decision taken on the option involving lower life-

cycle-cost.

1.2.5.8. Use of Geo-textiles as crack-arresting option

In badly cracked and damaged portions of pavements, the use of geo-textiles as crack-

arresting layer shall be explored.

1.2.5.9. Use of Composite Pavements

In view of shortage of stone aggregates in UP, the option of constructing composite

pavements shall be explored.

1.2.5.10. Use of fly-ash

For constructing road embankments, the use of fly-ash shall be made mandatory wherein

fly-ash is available within 100 km lead. The use of fly-ash as partial replacement of cement

in concrete pavements shall be promoted. The possibility of soil-lime-flyash stabilisation for

use in sub-bases shall also be explored.

1.2.5.11. Use of standardised spans for bridge construction

Where replacement of a large number of weak bridges is involved, standardisation of spans

in discrete increments will help speedy execution. If found necessary, standardised precast

superstructure elements shall be manufactured at a central location.

1.2.5.12. Contracting Industry

In view of the large outlays being planned in the road sector, efforts will be made to

strengthen the contracting industry by enabling the contractors to procure more equipment,

have access to equipment on hire/lease, have facilities to train foremen and operators and

have a system of pre-qualification of contractors. The conditions of contract will be

standardised to incorporate the best practices enshrined in the FIDIC conditions of contract.

1.2.5.13. Road Safety

Road safety is a matter of serious concern in UP. Though UP has only 9.4 per cent of

India’s vehicle population, the number of fatalities per year is 15.1 per cent of all-India

average, as seen below (Ref 13):




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ROAD ACCIDENTS IN INDIA AND UP (2011)

No. of Fatalities No. of Vehicles Fatalities per 10,000

vehicles

All-India 1,42,485 14,18,65,607 10.04

UP 21,512 1,32,87,232 16.2

UP as percent

of all-India 15.09 9.4

It is thus seen that the road safety situation is not comfortable at all in UP and concerted

efforts are needed to improve the conditions, particularly of engineering of roads. The

solutions needed are:

i. Widening of roads, as needed by the traffic volume

ii. Provision of shoulders to pavements

iii. Improving the geometrics of roads, particularly radius, super-elevation, junctions,

median openings, sight distance etc.

iv. Providing traffic safety features such as traffic signs, road markings reflectorised solar

studs etc.

v. Observing the prescribed norms for safety in construction zones

All future road projects should make a separate provision for these measures. Road Safety

Audit should be carried out on all the roads when provisions are made for improvement.

1.2.6. Sustainable Road Development

As UP is on the threshold of a giant leap forward in the road modernisation, it is of special

concern that the development shall take care of sustainability. Sustainability shall take into

account the physical resources needed to build and maintain the roads. The physical

resources that need special attention are:

a. soil for forming embankments

b. stone aggregates

c. binder

Soil for forming road embankments will be needed in large quantities for widening the

roads, for constructing new roads (for giving village connectivity, for bypasses and for

expressways) and for approaches to bridges and railway over bridges. Though soil can be

borrowed from the land adjacent to the road land, the management of borrow pits, and

particularly their drainage, should receive attention. Wherever thermal plants exist, it should

be made mandatory for the designers to specify the use of flyash for the embankment.

The road building material of great importance to UP’s future road programme is stone.

Since UP is located in the plains of the river Ganga and its tributaries, natural outcrops of

rock are rare and are located near the Himalayan foothills, Aravali and Vindhyan ranges.

Leads of 200-400 km are common, involving huge costs and wastage of precious

propulsion fuel like diesel. Thus, UP has to explore means to reduce the use of stone

aggregates. One easy way is to substitute the granular bases and sub-bases by soil

stabilisation. For stabilisation, various options are available, such as:

- cement

- lime plus flyash

- chemicals such as: RBI Grade 81, Renolith, Fujibeton etc.

The second area of concern as regards sustainability is the binder needed for pavement

courses. The traditional binder used so far is the hydro-carbon binder, bitumen. It is well-

known that bitumen, derived from petroleum crude, will become scarcer in the years to

come as the world-wide crude reserves dry up. It is in the country’s interest to explore the




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use of alternative binders, both for the immediate present and for the long term. The most

promising binder is cement, which is available in abundant supply in India now and will

continue to be available in the years to come. Cement as a binder can be used in a number

of ways, such as:

- soil-cement stabilised layers for use in bases and sub-bases

- cement concrete pavement which can be used for new pavements and strengthening

existing pavements by a technique known as white-topping

- interlocking concrete block pavements for city roads

It should be made mandatory for all projects in UP to explore how cement concrete and

soil-cement layers can be adopted in replacement of stone aggregate courses and

bituminous layers. The target should be to convert all bituminous surfaced roads to cement

concrete by the year 2031. UP has been exposed to modern concrete roads constructed on

NH-2 and NH-28. Road between Barabanki to Basti (NH-28) can be said to be one of the

finest roads constructed in India.

1.2.7. Sodic Soil

Due to the practising of irrigation extensively in UP, it is observed that some salts are

travelling from the lower horizon to the ground surface. The sodic soil, which is used for

road construction in nearly 10 per cent of the State, exhibits poor cohesion and the

embankment and shoulders get severely damaged during rains. Suitable treatment of the

soil is possible, and one of the treatments is to treat the soil in the sub-grade with a small

quantity of cement. The embankment slopes need to be covered with non-sodic soil,

obtained from horizon ‘C’ and planted with special grass which can grow even under

presence of adverse salt and protect the slopes.

1.2.8. Use of Geo-Textiles for slope protection

Modern aids like jute textile and coir-reinforced geo-textile have been found to be very

effective in checking soil erosion in the slopes. Special grass such as Vettiver has been

found to be very effective in protecting embankment slopes in areas liable to flooding. Since

many of UP’s roads are located in flood-prone areas, these techniques of protecting

embankment slopes must be made compulsory.

1.2.9. Silty Soil

The alluvial soil of Gangetic plain is termed as silty soil in engineering terminology. This soil

has good engineering properties unlike clayey soil, but has some inherent deficiencies. The

silt is vulnerable for serious erosion when used in shoulders. For a durable shoulder

construction, it is essential to use coarse grained soil or stabilised soil. When water table is

high, due to high capillary action of the order of 1 to 2 m, the soil tends to have boggy

action resulting in premature failure of road. These issues have to keep in mind when new

roads are designed.

1.2.10. Riverbanks

A large network of Rivers available in UP can be exploited for fisheries, fish ponds, and

shrimp farming in hinterland and also for transportation. For this purpose, a good road

network along the rivers is beneficial.

1.2.11. Replacement of Old-Brick-Arch Bridges

Many of the culverts and bridges on UP’s roads are constructed by brick and masonry.

They have performed well for several decades, but some are showing signs of distress and

may need to be rebuilt. A programme of inspection and condition survey of these structures

must be taken up so that the defects are detected in time and sudden failures do not take

place. Standard designs for the new structures should be prepared, and preferably precast

component should be a good option. These components can be precast in a central casting




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yard, and assembled quickly at each site. This will ensure that the concrete components

are of standard quality, cast and cured in the factory at controlled conditions. It may be

mentioned that Assam has successfully adopted this technique for the large programme of

replacing old timber bridges.

1.2.12. Urban Roads

The road network passing through the towns and cities of UP and having direct linkages to

the regional traffic also need special & specific attention to address the issues of improvised

mobility. The problem has its roots in the historical fact that the streets have been laid out

several years ago in these urban settlements. They are narrow, lack drainage, and are

severely encroached upon by hawkers. The traffic is heterogeneous, composed mainly of

pedestrians, cyclists and cycle rickshaws. The motorised two-wheelers and three-wheelers

have now grown in large numbers. Utilities such as electric cables, telephone cables, water

pipes and sewers are located beneath the roads. The pavement condition is universally

very poor because of lack of drainage and timely maintenance.

Bypasses must be planned for large towns and cities to siphon off the through traffic. For

construction of bypasses, land acquisition is required which is very difficult in the present

scenario. Keeping this in view, elevated road seems to be a better option and must be kept

in view and explored on various critical & congested sections.

As regards the urban streets which need strengthening and rehabilitation, the options

available are:

- White-topping, by providing a cement concrete pavement, taking care to plan for the

utilities

- Inter-connected concrete block pavements

If the existing bituminous layer is above 100 mm in thickness, the White-topping (TWT) or

Ultra-Thin White-topping (UTWT) can be adopted as per IRC:SP-2008 (Ref 14).

To prioritise public transportation in cities and towns dedicated ‘Bus Rapid Transit System’

corridors shall be planned and provided in big cities. A provision shall be made within the

ROW for such road corridors.

1.2.13. Energy Conservation

Since road transport operations consume lot of energy, mainly liquid fuel, UP Road Sector

must adopt a series of measures which can conserve energy. Some of these are

- the conversion of blacktopped roads to concrete-roads, which can save 14 per cent of

diesel of commercial vehicles (Ref 16)

- elimination of heating of bitumen and aggregates needed in hot-mix plants by opting for

concrete roads, thus saving fuel

- saving of electricity needed for street lighting, if concrete roads (which are grey in colour)

are adopted instead of bituminous surfaces (which are dark in colour) in city streets

(Ref 17)

1.2.14. Quality Systems

Since huge investments are likely to be made in the State’s road sector in the next twenty

years, it is of great importance that the money is well spent and the workmanship and end-

product are of the prescribed standards. The PWD must put in place a strategy for quality

management, involving:

- Supplier’s Quality Policy for products purchased by the PWD

- Internal Quality System, covering the consultants, contractors and supervisory

personnel

- Inspection and Audit of the Quality System at periodical intervals




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- Documentation to demonstrate that all the desired procedures have been rigorously

followed and the results are in conformity with the prescribed standards and

acceptance.

1.2.15. Funding of Road Projects

Long term sustainable funding is critical to the development of the transportation network.

Public Private Partnership options involving the concept of Toll Roads must be pursued.

Various alternatives such as BOT, BOOT, DBFO and Annuity Payments should be

explored. Performance based maintenance contracts by private parties should also be

improvised & implemented.

R E F E R E N C E S

1. India Vision 2020, Report of the Committee, Planning Commission, Published by Academic

Foundation, New Delhi, 2003.

2. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and Y.S. Rajan, India 2020, A Vision for the New Millennium, Penguin

Books, New Delhi, 2002.

3. Andhra Pradesh: Vision 2020, ECONOMICA India Infor-Services, Published by Academic


4. Assam: Vision 2025, ECONOMICA India Info-Services, Published by Academic Foundation,

New Delhi, 2003.

5. Chhattisgarh: Vision 2010, ECONOMICA India Info-Services, Published by Academic


6. Jharkhand: Vision 2010, ECONOMICA India Info-Services, Published by Academic


7. Uttar Pradesh Development Report, Planning Commission, New Delhi (from the internet).

8. Census of India, 2011, Provisional Figures, from the website http//censusindia.gov.in.

9. Road Development Plan for India, 1981-2001, Indian Roads Congress, New Delhi, 1984.

10. Proceedings of the 18th Conference of Central and State Statistical Organisation (COCSSO),

January, 2011 (from the website).

11. Rural Road Development Plan: Vision 2025, Ministry of Rural Development, New Delhi, 2007.

12. Uttar Pradesh – The Road Ahead, Edited by Venkitesh Ramakrishnan, Academic Foundation,

New Delhi, 2009.

13. Ministry of Road Transport and Highways Website and Road Accidents in India, 2011,

MORTH, New Delhi, 2012.

14. Tentative Guidelines for Conventional, Thin and Ultra-Thin White-topping, IRC:SP:76-2008,

Indian Roads Congress, New Delhi, 2008.

15. Guidelines for Capacity of Roads in Rural Areas (First Revision), IRC:64-1990, Indian Roads

Congress, New Delhi, 1990.

16. Study of Fuel Savings on Cement Concrete Roads as Compared to Flexible Pavements,

Cement Manufacturers’ Association, New Delhi, 1997.

17. Handbook on Cement Concrete Roads, Cement Manufacturers’ Association, New Delhi, 2010.




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DEVELOPMENT AND OPERATION OF

BASE YEAR TRANSPORT DEMAND MODEL (TDM)

2. DEVELOPMENT AND OPERATION OF BASE YEAR TDM

2.1. NETWORK DEVELOPMENT

2.1.1. Cube Software Description & Requirement

The Development of Network Development is one of the most important aspects of travel

demand modeling. Network preparation includes all the NH, SH & MDR & ODR that make up

the regional highway system in the State. The network is basically a map of these routes,

defined in a manner that can be read, stored, and manipulated by the transportation planning

computer program – Cube Voyager. Consultants will be adopting the help of this licence

software to estimate the base year and forecast travel demand.

Cube is designed to be an integrated modeling system for transportation planning applications,

engineering analysis and demand forecasting. The Cube Voyager system has four main

assignment programs: Network, Matrix, Highway and Public Transport. In addition, the program

system offers supplementary programs for common transportation planning tasks, such as trip

generation and distribution programs. Users may implement any model formulation desired in

the scripting language.

The software has following features:

- Integration with ESRI’s Arc Engine (GIS Platform) allows reading and writing of supported

file structures directly to and from a personal geodatabase.

- Full multirouting transit system which involves the facility of incorporating separate

Public/Mass transit routes.

- Represents a real – world system and describe traffic & travel behaviour under alternative

circumstances of network characteristcis & socio economic characteristics.

- Intersection and link constrained traffic assignments.

- Analysis of Future conditions to create forecasts.

- Flexible scripting language for various sub models

- Database connectivity allowing data to be stored and edited in standard dbase format

- Large problem sizes process efficiently (maximum zones=32,000, maximum

nodes=999,999, maximum links=999,999)

- Flexible matrix calculator with no practical limit on the number of matrices (999 internal

working matrices and up to 255 matrices on input and output files).

Cube Voyager is the software tool used to develop transport demand model which follow the

workflow mentioned in the Figure 2.1. The software has primarily three phases i.e. collection

and coding of data and defining model functions which includes inputs from traffic & travel

survey data and the final stage is the creation of a model catalogue.




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Figure 2.1 MODEL DEVELOPMENT WORK FLOW IN CUBE VOYAGER

Collection & Coding of Data - This phase encompasses the generation of transport network

and their characteristics, formation of Traffic Area Zones (TAZ) boundaries & preparation of

zonal development parameters (such as population, employment etc.)

Define Model Functions – Model is normally defined by travel pattern data, cost functions &

traffic survey data. Statistical tools & methods have been applied while specifying, estimating

and calibrating mathematical relationships between input & output.

Link Data & Processes with interface – After Collecting & Coding of Data and defining

functions of model different prgrammes and application related to demand etimation has been

laid out & Model Catalog related to run, review & revise has been created.

In the above mentioned paragraph various features of software tool cube has been

demonstrated and the requirement of input for development of transport demand model on

cube will also be studied. Typical transport planning model elements are shown

diagrammatically below. It is clearly understood that the inputs required are zonal data,

highway network, intersection data and travel pattern data.

A simple highway model does not involve the process of trip generation & trip distribution with

procedure of assignment of O- D survey (Zone to Zone traffic count) by road side O-D survey

but in other demand models normally four stage modelling is adopted.

The scope of the assignment emphasised the need for developing a Strategic Model at the

Regional Level up to the trip generation stages. However, consultants have included all other

stages like trip distribution, modal split and assignment stages. The modal split model of

passenger trips has been studied and finally, passenger trips have been assigned to the

network as a whole including the goods trips derived from the OD matrices.

Collection & Coding of

Data

Define Model Functions

Link Data & Processes

with interface




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TYPICAL TRANSPORT PLANNING MODEL ELEMENTS USED IN CUBE SOFTWARE

A Snapshot of the Cube file center has also been represented to look at the input values taken

by the cube software.

CUBE INTERFACE SNAPSHOT

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Model Split

Network Assignment

INPUTS

Zonal Data

Highway Network

Intersection Data

Travel Pattern Data

Trip Ends by Zone

Zone- to Zone trip-tables

Loaded networks

PROCESSES

OUTPUT




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2.1.2. Network Plan Preparation on GIS & Cube Platform

2.1.2.1. Approach

Network Plan preparation includes the base map preparation on GIS with the available maps of

all districts of UP. The base map for the project has been created by the process of digitization

from the existing UPPWD District Maps and from Google Satellite Imagery. The base map has

been prepared on GIS environment / platform and will be readable in AutoCAD environment

also on conversion. This can be superimposed on the Google satellite imagery and updated

from time to time by PWD, whenever, additional links are developed by various Divisions and

Sub-Divisions in the State. These maps have been interpreted with the available base maps

collected from various districts in the State. Some of the maps were free hand sketches and all

of them were not in the uniform scale. The base map prepared now is to the scale and will have

the following layer information.

District Boundaries

Tehsil Boundaries

Block Boundaries’ with names

Rail Network

Rivers (major and minor)

Expressways, NH, SH, MDR & ODR

This was a Herculean Effort’ and consultants have achieved it in a record time. This map will be

useful to State Engineering for planning of networks and discussions. Since, the map is on a

GIS platform, the information can be tagged through various attributes from time to time

depending upon the details available with State PWD, which can be updated on line from

various Divisions and Sub-Divisions. The network prepared by Consultants’ for this study is for

the traditional transport planning process and has information built on ‘node’ & ‘link’ mode

(basic requirement) and not on the chainage system. The base year road network prepared on

the GIS platform was mailed to all Divisions in the State and modified based on the feedback

received from them. Consultants; have

After the Base map preparation, GIS Compatible network has been loaded on the cube

software and Network & TAZ (Traffic Area Zone boundaries) have been built with all the

relevant attributes. The process of the map preparation is discussed in the subsequent

sections.

2.1.3. Base Map Preparation on GIS

The base map for the project has been created by the process of digitization form the existing

maps collected from PWD at the District / Zonal levels (mostly updated by UPPWD in up to

year and from Satellite Imagery of Google. The base map will be at a scale of 1:10000.

The Methodology for base map preparation includes the following steps:

i. Scanning and digitization of the existing maps of the UP State. The administrative

boundaries of the state, district, tehsil, block have been digitized

ii. The above boundaries were superimposition on the Google Satellite Image.

iii. The features like rail, road networks from the satellite Imagery was updated including

Rivers, Canal and Other Water Bodies.

iv. The names of the administrative units were attached as attribute data for all administrative

boundaries, names of rivers as attribute to the rivers.

v. Attachment of the attributes for other major features from the existing maps.




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After the base map preparation on GIS Road Feature has been extracted for the different

category of roads covered under (National Highways, State highways, Major district roads and

Other district roads). The road network will reflect the following sample features.

ROAD FEATURE EXTRACTIONS

The attribute data as shown below from the snapshot below has been attached to the road

network. The attachment has been done based on the unique identifier generated for all the

roads.




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NETWORK MAP ATTRIBUTES

The attribute data has been linked to each entity and can easily be retrieved by clicking on the

entity. The maps can be viewed with respect stored attributes & geographical area block, level,

tehsils level, district level and state as a whole.

HIERARCHICAL ROAD NETWORK WITH MAPPING OF ATTRIBUTES




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2.1.4. Network Building from Base Map on Cube Software

Network Building from Base Map prepared on GIS platform has been loaded on Cube software.

Cube has compatibility to accept the input files ‘’shape (*.shp) files’’ developed on GIS. All

basic attributes like length, road name, category of roads, district name & the coordinate

system has been taken by the cube software to build the network.

Cube software also requires following details related to network to assign the trips across the

State of UP:

- Number of lanes

- Average Speed

- One-way or two-way facility

- Divided or undivided facility

- Capacity of the road

Road network inventory and speed & delay has been conducted to get the average speed,

number of lanes and other details of carriageway (Divided & Undivided) and One Way & Two

way road system on sample basis. Rest of the inputs will be sourced from the existing inventory

details collected by the consultants from the various districts.

Each link of network roadways is identified by a functional class. Typical functional

classifications include National Highway, State Highway, Major District Road & Other District

Road. Facility type such as divided or undivided roadway further subdivides functional classes.

Functional and facility type classification schemes vary among regional areas. The length of

each network link is required in determining link travel time. Cube computes during the process

of digitizing the network from GIS base maps.

The capacity assigned to each network link is cross-classified by functional classification,

facility type and area type. The capacities typically used are based on a service volume at

different level of service and are derived from the IRC Standards.

The trip distribution process uses network link distance and speed to produce an estimate of

link travel time, from which minimum path routes between all traffic analysis zones are

developed. Cube Voyager develops a speed/capacity look-up table for each area modelled.

Cube derives the speeds found in this table from two sources: speed surveys of observed

travel speeds and speed and typical roadway speed for facilities based on functional

classification and level of service referenced in the IRC Codes & Standards.

2.1.5. Network Coding

2.1.5.1. Regional Network System

The highway network serves several purposes in transportation system analysis. First, it is an

inventory of the existing road system, or a catalogue of facilities. It is a record for the present

and future years to know the physical status of the highway system. Basic information such as

length of the road, route configuration, capacity, counted volumes etc. can be stored in the

network. Secondly, the network is used in demand analysis to estimate the highway travel

impedance between zones in a region. This impedance, or resistance to travel, is usually

described as the time or distance associated with each zone pair (or interchange). This

information is used primarily in trip distribution and mode choice. The third major use of the

network is in the simulation of auto travel and in the estimation of impacts associated with this

travel.




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2.1.5.2. Coding Principles

The process of translating the hierarchal road system into a computer usable format is known

as network coding. The basic elements of the network file are nodes and links. Links are used

to represent individual roadway segments. Nodes represent the intersection of roadway

segments and are also used as shape points to maintain the true topology of the highway

system. In addition to regular nodes and links, the network contains special nodes called

centroids. Centroids represent the traffic analysis zones (TAZ) and are located at the center of

activity in the zone. They are the point at which trips are loaded on the highway network.

External stations are centroids which represent the points at which external trips enter or leave

the region. In historical practice, networks used in travel demand models were defined through

a process of tracing highway segments off a set of base maps such as GIS compatible maps.

The coordinates of the nodes were entered manually or with a digitizer in the network data

base. These files can be used to develop base maps of a region and these base maps can be

exported, thus saving the time of digitizing the networks.

HIERARCHICAL ROAD NETWORK WITH MAPPING OF ATTRIBUTES




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2.1.5.3. Node Usage and Placement

Nodes indicate specific points in the network. Nodes are identified by a node number, "x", and

"y" (Cartesian) coordinates, indicating node location, and multiple user fields which can be used

to hold numeric data. Node user fields can be used to hold intersection related data such as

intersection controller type, and intersection level of service results. Node types include regular

nodes, dummy nodes, and centroid. Regular nodes, representing road intersections, bus stops,

transit stations, and points along highways are the most common node type. Centroids are the

unique type of node which represents the origin or destination of trips by all vehicular modes

to/from a zone. The coordinates of centroid are defined to facilitate the geographic review of

zonal and network data. Travel to/from a zone is not affected by the centroid location within a

zone, since travel characteristics are based on the attributes of links connecting centroid to the

network. Centroid for external zones is located adjacent to the major highway they serve. Once

all the centroids have been located, their positions are reviewed to insure that none are

overlapped by another node or link. This technique makes network plots more readable. The

fields available for the node records are:

- Node label

- X-coordinate

- Y-coordinate

- User defined data (i.e. area type, capacity, speed etc.)

2.1.5.4. Road Links

The highway systems in a region are represented by a system of links connecting pairs of

nodes. Each link contains the following information: the nodes that it connects the modes that

may use it, the link length, the link type, the number of lanes, and user fields. One link is coded

for each direction of movement on both the highway and transit networks. Therefore, links are

usually coded one-way along road segments that only allow one-way movement (including

freeways and ramps). The link type coded for each link can hold any representation of the type

of link desired. The fields typically used for link records are:

- A-node label of link

- B-node label of link

- Link length

- Link modes

- Link type

- Number of lanes

- User defined data

Link user defined data fields can be used to store a variety of numeric data. These include data

to be used for assignment calibration and validation such as roadway counts, observed speeds,

and toll-fee etc. information. The user fields may also be used to store information vital to the

execution of the assignment model. For example, in congested networks with closely spaced

intersections, intersection capacity is usually observed to be more of a constraining factor to

smooth, uninterrupted vehicle flow than link capacity.

The values for capacity to be placed in the user field may come from a look-up table of

capacities based on characteristics of the intersection including: intersection control type,

functional classifications of approach segments at the junction, and area type.




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2.1.5.5. Centroid & Centroid Connectors

Centroid is the node which represents local access point for any zone. It is normally located at

the major trip ends such as employment site of zone. Centroid connectors are links

representing typical access and egress to/from roadway system to/from centroids. Within a

network structure, a single link may be used to represent trip access from a zone to the

network. The preferred method for coding centroid links is to connect the zone centroid node to

a mid-block node. This method allows greater route choice flexibility by simulating a choice of

left versus right turn from a minor approach into a major traffic stream and avoids the difficulty

of intersection capacity calculation with large volumes of trips entering an intersection from a

zone centroid.

2.1.5.6. Highway Travel Speeds

Link travel speeds are used in the assignment process and fundamentally determine which

paths will be used on the network when travelling between zone pairs. The speeds output from

a model run can be compared to the observed travel times on a link by link basis to determine if

the coded link speeds are accurately reflecting traffic flow conditions. The model estimated link

speeds should be based upon a set of calibrated travel time functions for the region used in

concert with an equilibrium capacity restraint assignment algorithm.

In the present study node number for centroid of internal zone has been assigned from 1 to 207

& for external zones between 208 & 222. The node number for other nodes has been assigned

from 1000. Built Coded network with centroid, centroid connectors for internal as well as

external TAZ has been shown in the figure below. Link Dbase file & Node Dbase files with all

the relevant parameters required for the demand model has also been prepared.




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SNAPSHOT OF THE CODED NETWORK WITH CENTROID & CONNECTORS IN CUBE SOFTWARE




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2.1.6. Final Node and Link Diagram for Current Study

The study area road network has been divided into 7587 nodes and 17427 links. The

coding has been done up to the ODR level inclusive of NH, SH & MDR. Each of the road

junctions has been treated as ‘node’ and the section between the ‘nodes’ is referred to as

‘link’.

2.2. TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES (TAZ)

Formation of traffic zones (TAZ) is one of the primary phases in data base for analysing

travel characteristics and development of transport demand model. TAZ ideally is an area

that has homogeneous characteristics (i.e. land use and activity) for aggregation purposes.

In general, the regional model TAZ is created based on the Census boundaries. Censuses

block or block group boundaries, natural barriers, jurisdictional limits, and land use pattern

are common considerations used in the split process. Methodology, base zone map, zone

splitting criteria, and zone size are main concerns in the zone development process in

transportation planning for regional and urban areas. Whereas, in urban areas, municipal

wards are more appropriate to exhibit urban conditions, at a regional level for the entire

State of Uttar Pradesh, aggregate of Blocks and Tehsils are more relevant and hence have

been adopted for this study.

Network preparation includes all the national highway, state highway, Major district road,

other district road that make up the regional highway system. The network is basically a

map of these routes, defined in a manner that can be read, stored, and manipulated by the

transportation planning computer program – Cube Voyager.

2.2.1. Methodology of Zone Formation

Methodology of zone formation has been clearly emphasised in Figure 2.2. The zone

boundaries have created in GIS Platform along with district boundaries, tehsil boundaries,

block boundaries. Complied data with respect to socio economic parameters and other

parameters industrial areas, tourist areas and major urban areas has been listed to split the

study area into different zones. Zoning segregation criteria was based on the following

parameters:

- Population

- Area

- Road Network of the Zone Area

- Availability of PWD traffic counts & traffic & OD counts conduted by the consultants for

this study

- Industries

- Major Town / Urban Characteristics

- Tourist Places




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Figure 2.2 METHODOLOGY FOR TRAFFIC ZONE FORMATION

The traffic zone system for the current city has been compiled at the tehsil level across the

state of Uttar Pradesh. Tehsil & Block level data has been prepared taking all the planning

and economic variables compiled by the consultants for settlement and modelling exercise.

The ratio of urban population and rural population was used to delineate the urban areas

from the rural areas. The urban centres having population less than 50% of the total

population were separated out from existing Tehsil Areas.

Table 2.1 TEHSILS SHOWING PREDOMINANT URBAN CHARACTERISTICS

SN City

1 Ghaziabad

2 Gautam Budh Nagar

3 Aligarh

4 Gorakhpur

5 Mathura

6 Varanasi

For the above mentioned Tehsils separate traffic zones has been formed combining the

Municipal Corporation, Nagar Palika & Outer Growth and part of block boundary in which

urban area is falling. It has been observed that for the Gorakhpur & Varanasi Tehsil it was

difficult to delineate the exact boundary area of urban part and rest of the Tehsil. Hence,

these were not delineated.

Classification of Urban centres has been categorized into type 1 & type 2. Type 1 urban

centres are having population more than 1.0 lakh and Type 2 with population less than 1.0

lakh. Majority of Urban centres are falling within Type 1 category.

Typical format to form the TAZ (Traffic area Zones) and other parameters used for the

zoning criteria has been presented in Table 2.2.

STUDY AREA

BOUNDARIES

PLANNING &

ECONOMIC

VARIABLE

ZONE SIZE

SPLIT ZONE

CRITERIA

ZONE FORMATION




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Table 2.2 SAMPLE FORMAT FOR ZONING AREA DELINEATION

Dis

tric

t

Zo

ne (

Nam

e &

N

um

ber)

Te

hsil

wis

e

Popula

tio

n

Are

a (

sq.k

m)

Cla

ssific

atio

n o

f U

rban

centr

es

Pre

sence o

f M

ajo

r

Netw

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2001 & 2011

Using the above mentioned criteria a total of 222 traffic zones have been formalised

comprising of 207 internal traffic zones falling within the UP have been finalised been

finalized and developed with the provision of 15 external traffic analysis zones. External

traffic analysis zones have been formed at broad level as it will have less impact on UP

roads. Surrounding States has been assigned as a separated zone and other far places

away from the UP boundary have been clubbed into Northern, Southern, Eastern, Western

states. Detailed zoning list is attached as Table 2.3 & Figure 2.3.

Table 2.3 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES

Traffic Zone

District Reference Tehsil / Urban Area

1 Saharanpur Behat, Saharanpur

2 Saharanpur Deoband, Rampur Maniharan

3 Saharanpur Nakur

4 Muzzaffarnagar Kairana, Shamli

5 Muzzaffarnagar Budhana, Jansath, Khatauli

6 Muzzaffarnagar Muzaffarnagar

7 Baghpat Bagpat, Khekra

8 Baghpat Baraut

9 Meerut Mawana

10 Meerut Meerut

11 Meerut Sardhana

12 Bijnaur Bijnor, Najibabad

13 Bijnaur Chandpur

14 Bijnaur Dhampur, Nagina

15 JP Nagar Amroha

16 JP Nagar Dhanaura, Hasanpur

17 Ghaziabad Garhmukteshwar

18 Ghaziabad Hapur

19 Ghaziabad Razapur (Ghazaibad MC, Dharauti Khurd)

20 Ghaziabad Rest of Ghaziabad tehsil

21 Ghaziabad Modinagar

22 Gautam Buddha Nagar Bisrakh (Noida)

23 Gautam Buddha Nagar Rest of Dadri Tehsil

24 Gautam Buddha Nagar Gautam Buddha Nagar, Jewar

25 Bulandshahar Anupshahar, Sthana

26 Bulandshahar Dibai, Khurja, Shikarpur

27 Bulandshahar Bulandshahar, Sikanderabad

28 Aligarh Atrauli, Gabhana

29 Aligarh Lodha (Aligarh MC, Kashimpur Powerhouse)

30 Aligarh Rest of Kol Tehsil

31 Aligarh Eglas, Khair




April 2014


P a g e | 2-15

Traffic Zone


32 Mathura Chaata

33 Mathura Mathura (Mathura MB & Cantt, Vrindavan MB, Saunkh, Aurangabad CT)

34 Mathura Rest of Mathura tehsil

35 Mathura Mahavan, Maant

36 Agra Etmadpur

37 Agra Agra

38 Agra Fatehbad

39 Agra Baah

40 Agra Kiravali

41 Agra Kheragarh

42 Mahamaya Nagar

(Hathras) Hathras, Sasni, Sikandararau, Saaadabad

43 Kansiram Nagar Kasganj, Patiali, Sahawar

44 Etah Aliganj

45 Etah Etah

46 Etah Jalesar

47 Firozabad Firozabad, Tundla, Jasrana

48 Firozabad Shikohabad

49 Etawah Bharthana, Chaknagar

50 Etawah Etawah

51 Etawah Jasbantnagar, Saifai

52 Mainpuri Bhogaon

53 Mainpuri karhal

54 Mainpuri Mainpuri

55 Farukkabad Farukkabad

56 Farukkabad Amratpur, Kayamganj

57 Badaun Gunnaur

58 Badaun Bilsi, Bisauli, Sahasvan

59 Badaun Badaun

60 Badaun Daataganj

61 Moradabad Bilari

62 Moradabad Chandausi, Sambhal

63 Moradabad Moradabad

64 Moradabad Kanth, Thakurdwara

65 Rampur Milak, Shahbad, Bilaspur

66 Rampur Rampur, Swar, Tanda

67 Bareily Aawla

68 Bareily Mirganj

69 Bareily Bahedi, Nawabganj

70 Bareily Bareilly

71 Bareily Faridpur

72 Pilhibit Bisalpur, Puranpur

73 Pilhibit Pilhibit

74 Shahjahanpur Jalalabad

75 Shahjahanpur Shahjanpur

76 Shahjahanpur Tilhar

77 Shahjahanpur Puwaya

78 Kheeri Golagokarnath, Paliya

79 Kheeri Mohammadi

80 Kheeri Lakhimpur

81 Kheeri Dhaurhara, Nidhasan

82 Sitapur Misrikh

83 Sitapur Mahmudabad, Sidhauli

84 Sitapur Sitapur

85 Sitapur Bisawa, Laherpur

86 Hardoi Bilgram, Sadhyajpur

87 Hardoi Hardoi

88 Hardoi Sandila




April 2014


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Traffic Zone


89 Hardoi Shahbad

90 Kannauj Chibramau

91 Kannauj Kannauj, Tirwa

92 Auraiyya Auraiya, Bidhuna

93 Ramabai Nagar Akbarpur , Bhognipur

94 Ramabai Nagar Derpur, Rasulabad, Sikandara

95 Kanpur Nagar Bilhaur

96 Kanpur Nagar Ghatampur

97 Kanpur Nagar Kanpur

98 Hamirpur Hamirpur

99 Hamirpur Modha

100 Hamirpur Raath, Sarila

101 Jalaun Jalaon, Madhogarh

102 Jalaun Kalpi

103 Jalaun Konch, Urai

104 Jhansi Garautha, Mauranipur, Tehrauli

105 Jhansi Moth

106 Jhansi Jhansi

107 Lalitpur Lalitpur

108 Lalitpur Mahrauni, Taalbehat

109 Mahoba Charkhari, Mahoba

110 Mahoba Kulpahad

111 Banda Banda, Attara, Naraina

112 Banda Baberu

113 Chitrakoot Karvi, Mau

114 Fatehpur Bindki

115 Fatehpur Fatehpur, Khaga

116 Raibareily Dalmau, Lalganj, Unchahar

117 Raibareily Maharajganj

118 Raibareily Raibreilly

119 Raibareily Salaun, Tiloi

120 Unnao Bighapur, Purwa

121 Unnao Hasanganj, Safipur

122 Unnao Unnao

123 Lucknow Bakshi ka Talaab, Malihabad

124 Lucknow Lucknow

125 Lucknow Mohanlalganj

126 Barabanki Fatehpur, Nawabganj, Ramnagar

127 Barabanki Haidergarh, Ramasnehi Ghat, Sisraula Gauspur

128 Gonda Gonda

129 Gonda Karnelganj

130 Gonda Mankapur, Tarbatganj

131 Bahraich Kaisarganj, Mahsi

132 Bahraich Nanpaara

133 Bahraich Bahraich

134 Shrawasti Bhinga

135 Shrawasti Ikauna

136 Balrampur Balrampur

137 Balrampur Tulsipur, Utraula

138 Siddhart nagar Baansi, Naugarh

139 Siddhart nagar Dumriya Ganj, Itwa

140 Siddhart nagar Shohratgarh

141 Basti Basti

142 Basti Harya

143 Basti Bhanpur, Rudhauli

144 Sant Kabir Nagar Khalilabad

145 Sant Kabir Nagar Mehdawal

146 Sant Kabir Nagar Dhanghata

147 Maharajganj Farenda, Nautanwa, Nichnaul




April 2014


P a g e | 2-17

Traffic Zone


148 Maharajganj Maharjganj

149 Gorakhpur Baasgaon, Chauri Chaura, Gola

150 Gorakhpur Khajni, Kaimpiyarganj, Sahjanwa

151 Gorakhpur Gorakhpur

152 Kushinagar Haata

153 Kushinagar Padrauna

154 Kushinagar Kasya, Tamkuhi

155 Deoria Barhaj, Rudrapur

156 Deoria Bhatpar Rani, Salempur

157 Deoria Deoria

158 Balia Baasdih, Bairiya

159 Balia Balia

160 Balia Belthara Road, Rasra, Sikanderpur

161 Mau Ghosi, Madhuban

162 Mau Muhammadabad Gohna

163 Mau Maunath Bhanjan

164 Ghazipur Mohammadabad, Jamniya

165 Ghazipur Ghazipur

166 Ghazipur Jakhniya, Saidpur

167 Azamgarh Azamgarh

168 Azamgarh Budhanpur, Sagdi, Nizamabad

169 Azamgarh Lalganj, Mehnagar, Phulpur

170 Ambedkar Nagar Akbarpur , Bheeti

171 Ambedkar Nagar Jalalpur, Taanda, Alaalpur

172 Faizabad Bikapur, Milkipur

173 Faizabad Rudauli, Sohwaal

174 Faizabad Faizabad

175 Sultanpur Amethi, Lambhua

176 Sultanpur Jaisinghpur, Kaadipur

177 Sultanpur Musafirkhana, Gauriganj

178 Sultanpur Sultanpur

179 Jaunpur Jaunpur

180 Jaunpur Kerakat, Madiyahu

181 Jaunpur Badlapur, Machlishahar

182 Jaunpur Shahganj

183 Pratapgarh Kunda

184 Pratapgarh Patti, Raniganj

185 Pratapgarh Pratapgarh

186 Pratapgarh Lalganj

187 Kaushambi Chayal

188 Kaushambi Manjhanpur

189 Kaushambi Sirathu

190 Allahabad Baara, Karchana

191 Allahabad Handia

192 Allahabad Koraon, Mejaa

193 Allahabad Phulpur

194 Allahabad Allahabad

195 Allahabad Soraav

196 Mirzapur Mirzapur

197 Mirzapur Chunar

198 Mirzapur Lalganj, Madihan

199 Sant Ravidas Nagar Aurai , Gyanpur

200 Sant Ravidas Nagar Bhadoi

201 Varanasi Varanasi

202 Varanasi Pindara

203 Chandauli Chakiya

204 Chandauli Chandauli

205 Chandauli Sakaldih

206 Sonbhadra Dudhi




April 2014


P a g e | 2-18

Traffic Zone


207 Sonbhadra Robertsganj, Ghorawal

208 External Zones Uttaranchal (Surrounding State)

209 External Zones Himachal Pradesh (Surrounding State)

210 External Zones Haryana (Surrounding State)

211 External Zones Delhi (Sorrounding State)

212 External Zones Rajasthan( Surrounding State)

213 External Zones Madhya Pradesh( Surrounding State)

214 External Zones Chattisgarh( Surrounding State)

215 External Zones Jharkhand( Surrounding State)

216 External Zones Bihar( Sorrounding State)

217 External Zones Northern India(Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Chandigarh)

218 External Zones Western India(Gujarat, Maharastra, Goa, Daman & Diu, Lakshadeep, Dadra & Nagar Haveli)

219 External Zones Eastern India (Orissa, West Bengal)

220 External Zones North East India (Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, Mizoram)

221 External Zones Southern India (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Kerala, Pondicherry, Andamaan & Nicobaar Islands)

222 External Zones Surrounding Country (Nepal)

2.3. TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS

2.3.1. Passenger Traffic

2.3.1.1. Total Daily Trips by Type of Movement

A total of 22.60 lakh intrastate surveyed & expanded passenger trips were observed in the

State daily. The distribution of passenger trips by movement type i.e. between State and

All-India, vice versa and through components indicates that 80% (22.6 lakh) surveyed

passenger trips are performed within the Uttar Pradesh State daily. The respective share

for movement between Rest of the Country beyond UP Boundary and vice versa is about

18% (4.89 lakh). The through trips were 2% of all trips. The intrastate and interstate

demand of the recorded survey trips is about 28.13 lakh.

The combined flow (intra & interstate movements) for each mode is presented in Table 2.4

and Fig 2.4 respectively

Table 2.4 DISTRIBUTION OF INTERNAL & EXTERNAL TRIPS

Movement Type Trips per day (lakh) (%) Intra State (Internal to Internal) 22.60 80%

UP to Outside (Internal to External) 2.15 8%

Outside to UP (External to Internal) 2.73 10%

Through (External to External) 0.64 2%

Total 28.13 100%




April 2014


P a g e | 2-19

2.3.1.2. Trips by Mode of Travel

The analysis of the total trips reveals that the modal share of cars is about 28% and two

wheelers account for 25% share. The public transport (bus) share accounts for 37% of the

total trips. It is significant to note that about 10% of passenger trips by auto rickshaws were

also tapped on regional road system on various roads in the State. Table 2.5 shows the

distribution of intra state trips by modes.

Table 2.5 DISTRIBUTION OF INTRA STATE TRIPS BY MODE OF TRAVEL

Mode Intrastate Passenger Trips Percentage (%)

Car 6.35 28

Bus / Minibus 8.47 37

Two Wheeler 5.55 25

Three Wheeler 2.23 10

Total 22.60 100%

2.3.1.3. Trips by Purpose

Work trips constitute about 43% of the total surveyed trips. Amongst various passenger

modes 3-wheelers, cars and 2-wheelers are the predominant modes of travel in this

category. Bus trips which are long distance bound carry about 18% of the work trips. Most

of the work trips are local catered by personal and IPT modes. A total of 13% trips were

observed for business purposes. Cars and 2-wheelers were the dominant modes including

3-wheelers. The distribution of trips by purpose is presented in Table 2.6.

Table 2.6 DISTRIBUTION OF INTRA STATE TRIPS BY PURPOSE OF

TRAVEL

Purpose Shares (%)

Work 43%

Business 13%

Education 10%

Social 15%

Tourism / Recreation 11%

Return 8%

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

Intra State(II)

UP toOutside (IE)

Outside toUP (EI)

Through(EE)

Total

Lakh

/ d

ay

Movement

Fig 2.4 MOVEMENT PATTERN OF INTRASTATE & INTERSTATE PASSENGER TRIPS




April 2014


P a g e | 2-20

2.3.1.4. Trips by Interaction zones

The zones found to be having significant interaction in terms of passenger trips were also

studied in detail and analysed for the entire State. Top 10 passenger traffic generating

zones (external and internal) were found to be Lucknow, Ghaziabad, Agra, Allahabd,

Mathura, Basti, Barbanki (Fatehpur), Sultanpur, Barreily, Faizabad, Etah, Fatehgarh

etc..Major traffic attracting zones were Lucknow, Razapur (Ghazaibad MC, Dharauti

Khurd), Bareilly, Mathura (Mathura MB & Cantt, Vrindavan MB, Saunkh, Aurangabad CT),

Agra, Hapur, Moradabad, Basti, Faizabad, Fatehpur, Nawabganj, Ramnagar, Varanasi,

Sultanpur, Etah etc. The zones found to be having significant interaction in terms of

passenger trips are presented in Table 2.7.

Table 2.7 MAJOR PASSENGER TRIP GENERATING & ATTRACTING ZONES

PASSENGER TRIP PRODUCTIONS PASSENGER TRIP ATTRACTIONS

DISTRICT REFERENCE TEHSIL ZONE

% share

of total trips


% share

of total trips

External Zones

Delhi 211 5.7% Lucknow Lucknow 124 5.1%

Lucknow Lucknow 124 4.7% External Zones

Delhi 211 4.8%

Ghaziabad Razapur (Ghazaibad MC, Dharauti Khurd)

19 3.4% Ghaziabad Razapur (Ghazaibad MC, Dharauti Khurd)

19 3.1%

External Zones

Uttaranchal 208 3.1% Bareily Bareilly 70 2.5%

Agra Agra 37 2.5% Mathura Mathura (Mathura MB & Cantt, Vrindavan MB, Saunkh, Aurangabad CT)

33 2.2%

Allahabad Allahabad 194 2.1% Agra Agra 37 2.1%

Mathura

Mathura (Mathura MB & Cantt, Vrindavan MB, Saunkh, Aurangabad CT)

33 2.1% Ghaziabad Hapur 18 2.1%

Basti Basti 141 2.0% Moradabad Moradabad 63 2.1%

Barabanki Fatehpur, Nawabganj, Ramnagar

126 1.9% Basti Basti 141 2.0%

Sultanpur Sultanpur 178 1.9% External Zones

Uttaranchal () 208 1.7%

Bareily Bareilly 70 1.9% Faizabad Faizabad 174 1.7%

Faizabad Faizabad 174 1.8% Barabanki Fatehpur, Nawabganj, Ramnagar

126 1.7%

Etah Etah 45 1.7% Varanasi Varanasi 201 1.7%

External Zones

Haryana 210 1.5% Sultanpur Sultanpur 178 1.6%

Pratapgarh Patti, Raniganj 184 1.4% Etah Etah 45 1.6%

Gorakhpur Gorakhpur 151 1.3% Allahabad Baara, Karchana 190 1.6%

External Zones

Madhya Pradesh 213 1.2% External Zones

Haryana 210 1.4%

Gautam Buddha Nagar

Rest of Dadri Tehsil 23 1.2% Allahabad Allahabad 194 1.4%

Sant Kabir Nagar

Dhanghata 146 1.2% Jaunpur Kerakat, Madiyahu 180 1.3%

Bulandshahar

Bulandshahar, Sikanderabad

27 1.1% Gorakhpur Gorakhpur 151 1.2%

Etawah Etawah 50 1.1% Siddhart nagar

Shohratgarh 140 1.2%

Varanasi Varanasi 201 1.1% Sant Kabir Nagar

Dhanghata 146 1.1%

Siddhart nagar

Shohratgarh 140 1.0% Muzzaffarnagar

Muzaffarnagar 6 1.1%

Banda Banda, Attara, Naraina 111 1.0% Banda Banda, Attara, Naraina 111 1.1%

Muzzaffarnagar

Muzaffarnagar 6 1.0% External Zones

Madhya Pradesh( Surrounding State)

213 1.0%




April 2014


P a g e | 2-21



% share

of total trips


% share

of total trips

Kanpur Nagar

Kanpur 97 1.0% Meerut Mawana 9 1.0%

Varanasi Pindara 202 1.0% Bulandshahar Bulandshahar, Sikanderabad

27 1.0%

Muzzaffarnagar

Budhana, Jansath, Khatauli

5 0.9% Kanpur Nagar Kanpur 97 1.0%

Etah Jalesar 46 0.9% Saharanpur Behat, Saharanpur 1 1.0%

Ghaziabad Hapur 18 0.9% Etah Jalesar 46 1.0%

Jaunpur Kerakat, Madiyahu 180 0.9% Pratapgarh Patti, Raniganj 184 0.9%

Moradabad Moradabad 63 0.9% Firozabad Firozabad, Tundla, Jasrana

47 0.9%

Fatehpur Fatehpur, Khaga 115 0.9% Etawah Etawah 50 0.9%

Maharajganj Farenda, Nautanwa, Nichnaul

147 0.9% Pilhibit Pilhibit 73 0.8%

Meerut Mawana 9 0.8% Kanpur Nagar Ghatampur 96 0.8%

Mathura Mahavan, Maant 35 0.8% Maharajganj Farenda, Nautanwa, Nichnaul

147 0.8%

Saharanpur Behat, Saharanpur 1 0.8% Varanasi Pindara 202 0.8%

Kanpur Nagar

Ghatampur 96 0.7% Jhansi Jhansi 106 0.7%

Azamgarh Azamgarh 167 0.7% Gautam Buddha Nagar

Rest of Dadri Tehsil 23 0.7%

Allahabad Baara, Karchana 190 0.7% Badaun Badaun 59 0.7%

Firozabad Firozabad, Tundla, Jasrana

47 0.7% Sultanpur Amethi, Lambhua 175 0.7%

Firozabad Shikohabad 48 0.7% Muzzaffarnagar


5 0.7%

Badaun Badaun 59 0.7% Fatehpur Fatehpur, Khaga 115 0.6%

Pratapgarh Pratapgarh 185 0.7% Raibareily Dalmau, Lalganj, Unchahar

116 0.6%

Mahoba Charkhari, Mahoba 109 0.6% Bijnaur Bijnor, Najibabad 12 0.6%

Bijnaur Bijnor, Najibabad 12 0.6% Firozabad Shikohabad 48 0.6%

Jhansi Jhansi 106 0.6% Aligarh Lodha (Aligarh MC, Kashimpur Powerhouse)

29 0.6%

Aligarh Lodha (Aligarh MC, Kashimpur Powerhouse)

29 0.6% Faizabad Bikapur, Milkipur 172 0.6%

Ghazipur Ghazipur 165 0.6% Farukkabad Amratpur, Kayamganj 56 0.6%

Jaunpur Jaunpur 179 0.6% Sitapur Sitapur 84 0.6%

Chandauli Chakiya 203 0.6% Mau Maunath Bhanjan 163 0.5%

Bareily Bahedi, Nawabganj 69 0.6% Hardoi Hardoi 87 0.5%

Etawah Jasbantnagar, Saifai 51 0.5% Kaushambi Manjhanpur 188 0.5%

Gorakhpur Baasgaon, Chauri Chaura, Gola

149 0.5% Bareily Mirganj 68 0.5%

Mahamaya Nagar( Hathras)

Hathras, Sasni, Sikandararau, Saaadabad

42 0.5% Mathura Mahavan, Maant 35 0.5%

Allahabad Soraav 195 0.5% Ambedkar Nagar

Akbarpur , Bheeti 170 0.5%

Kannauj Kannauj, Tirwa 91 0.5% Pratapgarh Pratapgarh 185 0.5%

Lucknow Mohanlalganj 125 0.5% Chandauli Chandauli 204 0.5%

Pratapgarh Kunda 183 0.5% Mainpuri Mainpuri 54 0.5%

Kushinagar Kasya, Tamkuhi 154 0.5% Shahjahanpur Shahjanpur 75 0.5%

Farukkabad Amratpur, Kayamganj 56 0.5% Azamgarh Azamgarh 167 0.5%

Kaushambi Manjhanpur 188 0.4% Bareily Bahedi, Nawabganj 69 0.5%

Agra Fatehbad 38 0.4% Pratapgarh Kunda 183 0.4%

Shahjahanpur

Shahjanpur 75 0.4% Mau Muhammadabad Gohna 162 0.4%

Faizabad Bikapur, Milkipur 172 0.4% Allahabad Soraav 195 0.4%

Sonbhadra Robertsganj, Ghorawal 207 0.4% Azamgarh Budhanpur, Sagdi, Nizamabad

168 0.4%

Chandauli Chandauli 204 0.4% Lucknow Mohanlalganj 125 0.4%




April 2014


P a g e | 2-22



% share

of total trips


% share

of total trips

Badaun Bilsi, Bisauli, Sahasvan 58 0.4% Kushinagar Kasya, Tamkuhi 154 0.4%

Pilhibit Pilhibit 73 0.4% Rampur Rampur, Swar, Tanda 66 0.4%

Ambedkar Nagar

Jalalpur, Taanda, Alaalpur

171 0.4% Agra Fatehbad 38 0.4%

External Zones

Rajasthan 212 0.4% Raibareily Raibreilly 118 0.4%

Sant Ravidas Nagar

Bhadoi 200 0.4% Jaunpur Jaunpur 179 0.4%

Bareily Mirganj 68 0.4% Sant Kabir Nagar

Khalilabad 144 0.4%

Jaunpur Badlapur, Machlishahar 181 0.4% Mahoba Charkhari, Mahoba 109 0.4%

Hardoi Hardoi 87 0.4% Barabanki Haidergarh, Ramasnehi Ghat, Sisraula Gauspur

127 0.4%

Ambedkar Nagar

Akbarpur , Bheeti 170 0.4% Allahabad Koraon, Mejaa 192 0.4%

Saharanpur Nakur 3 0.4% Kannauj Kannauj, Tirwa 91 0.4%

Sitapur Sitapur 84 0.4% Siddhart nagar

Dumriya Ganj, Itwa 139 0.4%

Allahabad Koraon, Mejaa 192 0.4% Lalitpur Mahrauni, Taalbehat 108 0.4%

Lalitpur Lalitpur 107 0.4% Etawah Jasbantnagar, Saifai 51 0.4%

Pratapgarh Lalganj 186 0.4% Aligarh Eglas, Khair 31 0.4%

Hardoi Bilgram, Sadhyajpur 86 0.4% Sant Ravidas Nagar

Bhadoi 200 0.4%

Bareily Faridpur 71 0.4% Gonda Gonda 128 0.4%

Rampur Rampur, Swar, Tanda 66 0.4% Chandauli Chakiya 203 0.4%

Azamgarh Budhanpur, Sagdi, Nizamabad

168 0.4% Mahamaya Nagar( Hathras)


42 0.3%

Mau Maunath Bhanjan 163 0.3% Bareily Faridpur 71 0.3%

Shahjahanpur

Jalalabad 74 0.3% Hamirpur Hamirpur 98 0.3%

Barabanki Haidergarh, Ramasnehi Ghat, Sisraula Gauspur

127 0.3% Sonbhadra Robertsganj, Ghorawal 207 0.3%

Balrampur Tulsipur, Utraula 137 0.3% Agra Baah 39 0.3%

Maharajganj Maharjganj 148 0.3% Ghazipur Ghazipur 165 0.3%

Aligarh Eglas, Khair 31 0.3% Balrampur Tulsipur, Utraula 137 0.3%

Gautam Buddha Nagar

Bisrakh (Noida) 22 0.3% Sonbhadra Dudhi 206 0.3%

Farukkabad Farukkabad 55 0.3% Mirzapur Lalganj, Madihan 198 0.3%

Agra Baah 39 0.3% Farukkabad Farukkabad 55 0.3%

Shahjahanpur

Puwaya 77 0.3% Pratapgarh Lalganj 186 0.3%

External Zones

Bihar 216 0.3% Shahjahanpur Jalalabad 74 0.3%

Hamirpur Hamirpur 98 0.3% Badaun Bilsi, Bisauli, Sahasvan 58 0.3%

Sitapur Mahmudabad, Sidhauli 83 0.3% Bahraich Nanpaara 132 0.3%

Siddhart nagar

Baansi, Naugarh 138 0.3% Maharajganj Maharjganj 148 0.3%

Siddhart nagar

Dumriya Ganj, Itwa 139 0.3% Kansiram Nagar

Kasganj, Patiali, Sahawar 43 0.3%

Mau Muhammadabad Gohna

162 0.3% External Zones

RajasthaN 212 0.3%

Lalitpur Mahrauni, Taalbehat 108 0.3% Lucknow Bakshi ka Talaab, Malihabad

123 0.3%

Aligarh Atrauli, Gabhana 28 0.3% Hardoi Shahbad 89 0.3%

Kansiram Nagar

Kasganj, Patiali, Sahawar

43 0.3% Hardoi Bilgram, Sadhyajpur 86 0.3%

Kaushambi Sirathu 189 0.3% Shahjahanpur Puwaya 77 0.3%

Sonbhadra Dudhi 206 0.3% Gorakhpur Khajni, Kaimpiyarganj, Sahjanwa

150 0.3%

Meerut Sardhana 11 0.2% Gautam Bisrakh (Noida) 22 0.3%




April 2014


P a g e | 2-23



% share

of total trips


% share

of total trips

Buddha Nagar

Raibareily Raibreilly 118 0.2% Kushinagar Haata 152 0.2%

Mirzapur Lalganj, Madihan 198 0.2% Chandauli Sakaldih 205 0.2%

Mainpuri Mainpuri 54 0.2% External Zones

Sorrounding Country (Nepal)

222 0.2%

Unnao Unnao 122 0.2% Siddhart nagar

Baansi, Naugarh 138 0.2%

Jhansi Moth 105 0.2% Mainpuri karhal 53 0.2%

Deoria Deoria 157 0.2% Deoria Deoria 157 0.2%

Bahraich Bahraich 133 0.2% Sitapur Mahmudabad, Sidhauli 83 0.2%

Gorakhpur Khajni, Kaimpiyarganj, Sahjanwa

150 0.2% Mathura Chaata 32 0.2%

Chandauli Sakaldih 205 0.2% Gorakhpur Baasgaon, Chauri Chaura, Gola

149 0.2%

Gonda Gonda 128 0.2% Lalitpur Lalitpur 107 0.2%

Raibareily Dalmau, Lalganj, Unchahar

116 0.2% Meerut Meerut 10 0.2%

Sant Kabir Nagar

Khalilabad 144 0.2% Balrampur Balrampur 136 0.2%

Raibareily Maharajganj 117 0.2% Saharanpur Nakur 3 0.2%

Lucknow Bakshi ka Talaab, Malihabad

123 0.2% Unnao Bighapur, Purwa 120 0.2%

External Zones

Northern India (Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Chandigarh)

217 0.2% Mahoba Kulpahad 110 0.2%

Mirzapur Mirzapur 196 0.2% Bahraich Bahraich 133 0.2%

Balrampur Balrampur 136 0.2% Allahabad Phulpur 193 0.2%

Muzzaffarnagar

Kairana, Shamli 4 0.2% Jalaun Jalaon, Madhogarh 101 0.2%

Kushinagar Padrauna 153 0.2% Balia Balia 159 0.2%

Jalaun Jalaon, Madhogarh 101 0.2% Mirzapur Mirzapur 196 0.2%

Kheeri Mohammadi 79 0.2% Kushinagar Padrauna 153 0.2%

Mathura Chaata 32 0.2% Gautam Buddha Nagar

Gautam Buddha Nagar, Jewar

24 0.2%

Hardoi Shahbad 89 0.2% External Zones

Northern India (Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Chandigarh)

217 0.2%

Pilhibit Bisalpur, Puranpur 72 0.2% Agra Etmadpur 36 0.2%

Kannauj Chibramau 90 0.2% Badaun Gunnaur 57 0.2%

Kheeri Lakhimpur 80 0.2% Auraiyya Auraiya, Bidhuna 92 0.2%

Sultanpur Jaisinghpur, Kaadipur 176 0.2% Sultanpur Jaisinghpur, Kaadipur 176 0.2%

Sultanpur Amethi, Lambhua 175 0.2% Aligarh Atrauli, Gabhana 28 0.2%

Auraiyya Auraiya, Bidhuna 92 0.2% Baghpat Baraut 8 0.2%

Basti Bhanpur, Rudhauli 143 0.2% Deoria Barhaj, Rudrapur 155 0.2%

Jalaun Konch, Urai 103 0.1% Unnao Unnao 122 0.2%

Kushinagar Haata 152 0.1% Raibareily Maharajganj 117 0.2%

Agra Etmadpur 36 0.1% Basti Bhanpur, Rudhauli 143 0.2%

Deoria Barhaj, Rudrapur 155 0.1% Agra Kheragarh 41 0.2%

JP Nagar Amroha 15 0.1% Pilhibit Bisalpur, Puranpur 72 0.1%

Gautam Buddha Nagar


24 0.1% Deoria Bhatpar Rani, Salempur 156 0.1%

Meerut Meerut 10 0.1% Kheeri Mohammadi 79 0.1%

Saharanpur Deoband, Rampur Maniharan

2 0.1% Kheeri Lakhimpur 80 0.1%

Deoria Bhatpar Rani, Salempur

156 0.1% Hamirpur Raath, Sarila 100 0.1%

Balia Balia 159 0.1% Jaunpur Badlapur, Machlishahar 181 0.1%

Badaun Gunnaur 57 0.1% Kannauj Chibramau 90 0.1%

External Sorrounding Country 222 0.1% Jhansi Moth 105 0.1%




April 2014


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% share

of total trips


% share

of total trips

Zones (Nepal)

Moradabad Kanth, Thakurdwara 64 0.1% Kaushambi Sirathu 189 0.1%

Jhansi Garautha, Mauranipur, Tehrauli

104 0.1% JP Nagar Amroha 15 0.1%

Bahraich Nanpaara 132 0.1% Saharanpur Deoband, Rampur Maniharan

2 0.1%

Mahoba Kulpahad 110 0.1% Moradabad Kanth, Thakurdwara 64 0.1%

Unnao Hasanganj, Safipur 121 0.1% External Zones

Bihar 216 0.1%

Banda Baberu 112 0.1% Bareily Aawla 67 0.1%

Balia Baasdih, Bairiya 158 0.1% Jhansi Garautha, Mauranipur, Tehrauli

104 0.1%

Hamirpur Raath, Sarila 100 0.1% Chitrakoot Karvi, Mau 113 0.1%

Unnao Bighapur, Purwa 120 0.1% External Zones

Western India(Gujarat, Maharastra, Goa, Daman & Diu, Lakshadeep, Dadra & Nagar Haveli)

218 0.1%

Bulandshahar

Anupshahar, Sthana 25 0.1% Ambedkar Nagar

Jalalpur, Taanda, Alaalpur 171 0.1%

Sitapur Misrikh 82 0.1% Kanpur Nagar Bilhaur 95 0.1%

Bareily Aawla 67 0.1% Muzzaffarnagar

Kairana, Shamli 4 0.1%

Agra Kheragarh 41 0.1% Bulandshahar Dibai, Khurja, Shikarpur 26 0.1%

Baghpat Baraut 8 0.1% Hardoi Sandila 88 0.1%

Kheeri Golagokarnath, Paliya 78 0.1% Mathura Rest of Mathura tehsil 34 0.1%

Kaushambi Chayal 187 0.1% Mainpuri Bhogaon 52 0.1%

Ghaziabad Garhmukteshwar 17 0.1% Jalaun Konch, Urai 103 0.1%

Mainpuri karhal 53 0.1% Balia Baasdih, Bairiya 158 0.1%

Baghpat Bagpat, Khekra 7 0.1% Rampur Milak, Shahbad, Bilaspur 65 0.1%

Etah Aliganj 44 0.1% Meerut Sardhana 11 0.1%

Mathura Rest of Mathura tehsil 34 0.1% Banda Baberu 112 0.1%

Kanpur Nagar

Bilhaur 95 0.1% Unnao Hasanganj, Safipur 121 0.1%

Mirzapur Chunar 197 0.1% Hamirpur Modha 99 0.1%

External Zones

Western India (Gujarat, Maharastra, Goa, Daman & Diu, Lakshadeep, Dadra & Nagar Haveli)

218 0.1% Sultanpur Musafirkhana, Gauriganj 177 0.1%

Ghazipur Jakhniya, Saidpur 166 0.1% Agra Kiravali 40 0.1%

Hamirpur Modha 99 0.1% Kheeri Dhaurhara, Nidhasan 81 0.1%

Chitrakoot Karvi, Mau 113 0.1% Kaushambi Chayal 187 0.1%

Bijnaur Dhampur, Nagina 14 0.1% Ramabai Nagar

Derpur, Rasulabad, Sikandara

94 0.1%

Sant Ravidas Nagar

Aurai , Gyanpur 199 0.1% Kheeri Golagokarnath, Paliya 78 0.1%

Bijnaur Dhampur, Nagina 14 0.1%

Fatehpur Bindki 114 0.1%

Allahabad Handia 191 0.1%

2.4. FREIGHT TRAFFIC

2.4.1. Total Daily Trips by Movement Type

A total of 1.86 lakh goods vehicle trips were observed on an average day of which 0.72 lakh

were empty trips. About 66 % of goods trips have either origin or destination outside within

the State i.e. intra state goods vehicle trips and other 27% have origin or destination in UP.

About 7.2% of the goods trips are through trips (External to External) with neither origins

nor destinations in UP State (Table 2.8).




April 2014


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A total freight load of about 14 lakh tonne was recorded at the survey points on an average

weekday which includes procurement / dispersal and movement of goods from State. Of

this about 7.5 lakh tonne is carried within the State movements. About 4.7 lakh tonne has

origin / destination within the State & 1.6 lakh tonne is through passing through the State

Road Network.

Table 2.8 DISTRIBUTION OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC BY MOVEMENT

Type I-I I-E E-I E-E Total

Loaded Vehicle Trips 67,667 17,120 17,991 10,640 113,418

Empty Goods Vehicle Trips 54,528 8,690 6,916 2,766 72,899

Total 122,195 25,810 24,907 13,406 186,317

% Share 65.6% 13.9% 13.4% 7.2% 100.0%

Freight Carried (Tonnes) 746,517 220,710 247,237 161,772 1,376,236

2.4.1.1. Distribution of traffic by modes

The freight carried by various goods vehicles (Table 2.9) by type indicates that light

commercial vehicles (LCV) carry about 0.46 lakh tonnes of freight, 2-axle and 3-axle trucks

move about 1.3 lakh tonnes. Multi-axle goods vehicles cater to movement of 0.12 lakh

tonnes across the State.

Table 2.9 DISTRIBUTION OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC BY MODE

Vehicle Type No. of Goods

Vehicle Trips per day

% Share Freight Carried

(Tonnes per day)

% Share

LCV 0.46 24.5% 0.61 4.4%

2 Axle Truck 0.63 33.8% 4.36 31.7%

3 Axle Truck 0.66 35.4% 6.90 50.1%

MAV 0.12 6.4% 1.89 13.8%

Total 1.86 1.00 13.76 100.0%

2.4.1.2. Loading Pattern

The average payloads have been deduced for each goods mode based on observed freight

loading pattern in loaded goods vehicle trips. While, LCV has an average payload of 2.79

tonnes a higher average of 10.81 tonnes was observed for 2-axle trucks. 3-axle trucks carry

on an average about 16 tonnes and Multi-axle trucks carry more than 24 tonnes

(Table 2.10).

Table 2.10 AVERAGE PAYLOADS (TONNES)

Vehicle Type Freight Carried

(Tonnes) Loaded Vehicle

Trips Average Payloads

(Tonnes per truck load)

LCV 60514 21665 2.79

2 Axle Truck 436250 40358 10.81

3 Axle Truck 689982 43594 15.83

MAV 189490 7802 24.29

Total 1376236 113418 12.13

2.4.1.3. Lead Distribution

Lead Distribution of goods vehicle trips analyzed for their trip lengths indicates an average

lead of 85 km for LCV, 225 km for 2-axle, 344 km for 3-axle trucks. Multi-axle trucks have

an average lead 475 km. The trip length frequency distribution for goods vehicles is shown

in Table 2.11.




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Table 2.11 AVERAGE LEAD OF GOODS VEHICLE

Vehicle Type Average Lead (km)

LCV 85

2 Axle Truck 225

3 Axle Truck 344

MAV 476

2.4.1.4. Trips by Interaction Zones

Major O-D Pairs for zones having significant interaction in terms of freight traffic for

productions and attractions were Mathura (Mathura MB & Cantt, Vrindavan MB, Saunkh,

Aurangabad CT), Moradabad, Agra, Allahabad, Bareilly, Bulandshahar, Sikanderabad,

Sultanpur, Gorakhpur, Rampur, Swar, Tanda, Varanasi etc.. Similarly, freight traffic

attracting zones with significant volumes were Lucknow, Kanpur, Banda, Attara, Naraina,

Razapur (Ghazaibad MC, Dharauti Khurd), Allahabad, Moradabad, Hapur, Agra, Varanasi,

Baara, Karchana, Bareilly, Dalmau, Lalganj, Unchahar, Mathura (Mathura MB & Cantt,

Vrindavan MB, Saunkh, Aurangabad (CT), Gorakhpur, Fatehpur, Khaga, Raibarreily,

Faizabad, Fatehpur, Nawabganj, Ramnagar, Sultanpur, Charkhari, Mahoba, Muzaffarnagar

etc. he zones found to be having significant interaction in terms of freight traffic are

highlighted in Table 2.12.

Table 2.12 MAJOR FREIGHT TRAFFIC ATTRACTING & PRODUCTION ZONES

MAJOR TRIP PRODUCTION ZONES MAJOR TRIP ATTRACTION ZONES

District Zone Name Zones % of

Goods Trips

District Zone Name Zone % of

Goods Trips

External Zones

Madhya Pradesh 213 5.7% External Zones

Delhi 211 6.3%

External Zones

Delhi 211 5.0% External Zones

Uttaranchal 208 5.1%

External Zones

Haryana 210 4.2% Lucknow Lucknow 124 4.0%

External Zones

Uttaranchal 208 4.2% Kanpur Nagar Kanpur 97 3.4%

Ghaziabad Razapur (Ghazaibad MC, Dharauti Khurd)


Haryana 210 3.0%

Banda Banda, Attara, Naraina 111 3.4% Banda Banda, Attara, Naraina

111 2.8%

Kanpur Nagar Kanpur 97 2.7% Ghaziabad Razapur (Ghazaibad MC, Dharauti Khurd)

19 2.7%

Lucknow Lucknow 124 2.6% Allahabad Allahabad 194 2.4%

Mahoba Charkhari, Mahoba 109 2.5% External Zones

Madhya Pradesh 213 2.4%

Allahabad Baara, Karchana 190 2.4% Moradabad Moradabad 63 2.0%

External Zones

Bihar 216 2.1% External Zones

Bihar 216 2.0%

External Zones

RajasthaN 212 2.0% External Zones

Rajasthan 212 1.9%

Jhansi Jhansi 106 2.0% Ghaziabad Hapur 18 1.9%

Ghaziabad Hapur 18 1.8% Agra Agra 37 1.6%

Fatehpur Fatehpur, Khaga 115 1.8% Varanasi Varanasi 201 1.6%

Mathura Mathura (Mathura MB & Cantt, Vrindavan MB, Saunkh, Aurangabad CT)


North East India (Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, Mizoram)

220 1.6%

Moradabad Moradabad 63 1.7% External Zones

Eastern India (Orissa, West Bengal)

219 1.6%

Agra Agra 37 1.5% Allahabad Baara, Karchana 190 1.5%

External Zones


218 1.5% Bareily Bareilly 70 1.4%




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Goods Trips


Goods Trips

Allahabad Allahabad 194 1.5% Raibareily Dalmau, Lalganj, Unchahar

116 1.3%

Bareily Bareilly 70 1.3% External Zones


218 1.2%

Bulandshahar Bulandshahar, Sikanderabad

27 1.3% Mathura

Mathura (Mathura MB & Cantt, Vrindavan MB, Saunkh, Aurangabad CT)

33 1.2%

External Zones

North East India (Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, Mizoram)

220 1.3% Gorakhpur Gorakhpur 151 1.2%

Sultanpur Sultanpur 178 1.3% Fatehpur Fatehpur, Khaga 115 1.2%

External Zones

Northern India(Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Chandigarh)

217 1.3% Raibareily Raibreilly 118 1.1%

Gorakhpur Gorakhpur 151 1.2% External Zones

Northern India(Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Chandigarh)

217 1.0%

Rampur Rampur, Swar, Tanda 66 1.1% Faizabad Faizabad 174 1.0%

External Zones

Eastern India (Orissa, West Bengal)

219 1.1% Barabanki Fatehpur, Nawabganj, Ramnagar

126 1.0%

Varanasi Varanasi 201 0.9% Sultanpur Sultanpur 178 0.9%

Bijnaur Bijnor, Najibabad 12 0.8% External Zones

Surrounding Country (Nepal)

222 0.9%

Gautam Buddha Nagar

Rest of Dadri Tehsil 23 0.8% Mahoba Charkhari, Mahoba 109 0.9%

Kanpur Nagar Ghatampur 96 0.8% Muzzaffarnagar

Muzaffarnagar 6 0.9%

Barabanki Fatehpur, Nawabganj, Ramnagar

126 0.8% Chitrakoot Karvi, Mau 113 0.8%

Varanasi Pindara 202 0.7% Kanpur Nagar Ghatampur 96 0.8%

Shahjahanpur Shahjanpur 75 0.7% Etawah Etawah 50 0.7%

Saharanpur Behat, Saharanpur 1 0.7% Firozabad Firozabad, Tundla, Jasrana

47 0.7%

Etah Etah 45 0.7% Bulandshahar Bulandshahar, Sikanderabad

27 0.7%

Faizabad Faizabad 174 0.6% Basti Basti 141 0.6%

Mathura Mahavan, Maant 35 0.6% Etah Etah 45 0.6%

Firozabad Firozabad, Tundla, Jasrana

47 0.6% Ghazipur Ghazipur 165 0.6%

Etawah Etawah 50 0.6% Bijnaur Bijnor, Najibabad 12 0.6%

Ghazipur Ghazipur 165 0.6% Jhansi Jhansi 106 0.6%

Basti Basti 141 0.6% Kaushambi Chayal 187 0.6%

Mahamaya Nagar( Hathras)


42 0.5% Mainpuri Mainpuri 54 0.6%

Siddhart nagar

Shohratgarh 140 0.5% Meerut Mawana 9 0.5%

Aligarh Lodha (Aligarh MC, Kashimpur Powerhouse)

29 0.5% Gautam Buddha Nagar

Bisrakh (Noida) 22 0.5%

External Zones

Sorrounding Country (Nepal)

222 0.5% Azamgarh Azamgarh 167 0.5%

Mahoba Kulpahad 110 0.4% Rampur Rampur, Swar, Tanda 66 0.5%

Sonbhadra Dudhi 206 0.4% Saharanpur Behat, Saharanpur 1 0.5%

Sitapur Sitapur 84 0.4% Kushinagar Kasya, Tamkuhi 154 0.5%

Kushinagar Kasya, Tamkuhi 154 0.4% Mathura Mahavan, Maant 35 0.5%

Muzzaffarnagar


5 0.4% Aligarh Eglas, Khair 31 0.5%




April 2014


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Goods Trips


Goods Trips

Barabanki Haidergarh, Ramasnehi Ghat, Sisraula Gauspur

127 0.4% Meerut Meerut 10 0.5%

External Zones

Southern India(Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Kerala, Pondicherry, Andamaan & Nicobaar Islands)

221 0.4% Mahamaya Nagar (Hathras)


42 0.4%

Raibareily Raibreilly 118 0.4% Shahjahanpur Shahjanpur 75 0.4%

Muzzaffarnagar

Muzaffarnagar 6 0.4% Gautam Buddha Nagar

Rest of Dadri Tehsil 23 0.4%

Sonbhadra Robertsganj, Ghorawal 207 0.4% Siddhart nagar

Shohratgarh 140 0.4%

Gonda Gonda 128 0.4% Aligarh Lodha (Aligarh MC, Kashimpur Powerhouse)

29 0.4%

Chitrakoot Karvi, Mau 113 0.4% Lalitpur Mahrauni, Taalbehat 108 0.4%

Bareily Bahedi, Nawabganj 69 0.4% Pilhibit Pilhibit 73 0.4%

Meerut Mawana 9 0.3% Etah Jalesar 46 0.4%

Auraiyya Auraiya, Bidhuna 92 0.3% Siddhart nagar

Dumriya Ganj, Itwa 139 0.4%

Gautam Buddha Nagar

Bisrakh (Noida) 22 0.3% Bahraich Nanpaara 132 0.3%

Pilhibit Bisalpur, Puranpur 72 0.3% Varanasi Pindara 202 0.3%

Mainpuri Mainpuri 54 0.3% Hardoi Hardoi 87 0.3%

Mirzapur Lalganj, Madihan 198 0.3% Sonbhadra Robertsganj, Ghorawal

207 0.3%

Pratapgarh Pratapgarh 185 0.3% Farukkabad Amratpur, Kayamganj 56 0.3%

Pilhibit Pilhibit 73 0.3% Gonda Gonda 128 0.3%

Allahabad Soraav 195 0.3% Sitapur Sitapur 84 0.3%

Hamirpur Hamirpur 98 0.3% Mirzapur Lalganj, Madihan 198 0.3%

Jaunpur Jaunpur 179 0.3% Muzzaffarnagar


5 0.3%

Hardoi Hardoi 87 0.3% Jalaun Jalaon, Madhogarh 101 0.3%

Lalitpur Lalitpur 107 0.3% Faizabad Bikapur, Milkipur 172 0.3%

Kansiram Nagar

Kasganj, Patiali, Sahawar 43 0.3% Lucknow Mohanlalganj 125 0.3%

Maharajganj Farenda, Nautanwa, Nichnaul


Jharkhand 215 0.3%

Lucknow Mohanlalganj 125 0.3% Allahabad Soraav 195 0.3%

Farukkabad Farukkabad 55 0.3% Bareily Mirganj 68 0.3%

Meerut Sardhana 11 0.2% Mau Muhammadabad Gohna

162 0.3%

Hamirpur Raath, Sarila 100 0.2% Sonbhadra Dudhi 206 0.3%

Jaunpur Kerakat, Madiyahu 180 0.2% Kheeri Golagokarnath, Paliya 78 0.3%

Balrampur Balrampur 136 0.2% Maharajganj Maharjganj 148 0.3%

Bahraich Nanpaara 132 0.2% Badaun Badaun 59 0.3%

Lalitpur Mahrauni, Taalbehat 108 0.2% Jaunpur Kerakat, Madiyahu 180 0.3%

Badaun Badaun 59 0.2% Pratapgarh Pratapgarh 185 0.2%

External Zones

Jharkhand( Sorrounding State)


Chattisgarh 214 0.2%

Bahraich Bahraich 133 0.2% Farukkabad Farukkabad 55 0.2%

Mirzapur Mirzapur 196 0.2% Hamirpur Hamirpur 98 0.2%

Hardoi Bilgram, Sadhyajpur 86 0.2% Jalaun Kalpi 102 0.2%

Sultanpur Musafirkhana, Gauriganj 177 0.2% Kaushambi Manjhanpur 188 0.2%

Agra Baah 39 0.2% Ghaziabad Rest of Ghaziabad tehsil

20 0.2%

External Zones

Chattisgarh( Sorrounding State)

214 0.2% Etawah Jasbantnagar, Saifai 51 0.2%

Pratapgarh Kunda 183 0.2% Lucknow Bakshi ka Talaab, Malihabad

123 0.2%

Raibareily Dalmau, Lalganj, Unchahar

116 0.2% Badaun Bilsi, Bisauli, Sahasvan

58 0.2%

Ghazipur Jakhniya, Saidpur 166 0.2% Saharanpur Nakur 3 0.2%




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Goods Trips


Goods Trips

Farukkabad Amratpur, Kayamganj 56 0.2% Bahraich Bahraich 133 0.2%

Aligarh Eglas, Khair 31 0.2% Mahoba Kulpahad 110 0.2%

JP Nagar Amroha 15 0.2% External Zones

Southern India (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Kerala, Pondicherry, Andamaan & Nicobaar Islands)

221 0.2%

Balia Balia 159 0.2% Auraiyya Auraiya, Bidhuna 92 0.2%

Kaushambi Manjhanpur 188 0.2% Unnao Unnao 122 0.2%

Gautam Buddha Nagar


24 0.2% Sant Kabir Nagar

Khalilabad 144 0.2%

Kannauj Chibramau 90 0.2% Bareily Bahedi, Nawabganj 69 0.2%

Muzaffarnagar

Kairana, Shamli 4 0.2% Kansiram Nagar

Kasganj, Patiali, Sahawar

43 0.2%

Lucknow Bakshi ka Talaab, Malihabad

123 0.2% Mathura Chaata 32 0.2%

Maharajganj Maharjganj 148 0.2% Siddhart nagar

Baansi, Naugarh 138 0.2%

Etah Jalesar 46 0.2% Maharajganj Farenda, Nautanwa, Nichnaul

147 0.2%

Sultanpur Amethi, Lambhua 175 0.2% Gautam Buddha Nagar


24 0.2%

Ramabai Nagar

Akbarpur , Bhognipur 93 0.2% Kannauj Kannauj, Tirwa 91 0.2%

Sitapur Misrikh 82 0.2% Meerut Sardhana 11 0.2%

Etawah Jasbantnagar, Saifai 51 0.2% Gorakhpur Khajni, Kaimpiyarganj, Sahjanwa

150 0.2%

Badaun Bilsi, Bisauli, Sahasvan 58 0.1% Sultanpur Amethi, Lambhua 175 0.2%

Azamgarh Azamgarh 167 0.1% Jaunpur Jaunpur 179 0.2%

Siddhart nagar

Baansi, Naugarh 138 0.1% Basti Harya 142 0.2%

Kannauj Kannauj, Tirwa 91 0.1% Saharanpur Deoband, Rampur Maniharan

2 0.2%

Firozabad Shikohabad 48 0.1% Kaushambi Sirathu 189 0.2%

Allahabad Koraon, Mejaa 192 0.1% Pratapgarh Kunda 183 0.2%

Gorakhpur Baasgaon, Chauri Chaura, Gola

149 0.1% Agra Baah 39 0.2%

Saharanpur Nakur 3 0.1% Rampur Milak, Shahbad, Bilaspur

65 0.2%

Pratapgarh Patti, Raniganj 184 0.1% Barabanki Haidergarh, Ramasnehi Ghat, Sisraula Gauspur

127 0.2%

Bareily Faridpur 71 0.1% Pilhibit Bisalpur, Puranpur 72 0.2%

Ambedkar Nagar

Jalalpur, Taanda, Alaalpur 171 0.1% Balrampur Balrampur 136 0.2%

Ghaziabad Garhmukteshwar 17 0.1% Lalitpur Lalitpur 107 0.2%

Meerut Meerut 10 0.1% Bareily Faridpur 71 0.2%

Siddhart nagar

Dumriya Ganj, Itwa 139 0.1% JP Nagar Amroha 15 0.2%

Bareily Mirganj 68 0.1% Kheeri Lakhimpur 80 0.2%

Gorakhpur Khajni, Kaimpiyarganj, Sahjanwa

150 0.1% Mirzapur Mirzapur 196 0.1%

Rampur Milak, Shahbad, Bilaspur 65 0.1% Kushinagar Haata 152 0.1%

Saharanpur Deoband, Rampur Maniharan

2 0.1% Banda Baberu 112 0.1%

Unnao Hasanganj, Safipur 121 0.1% Mathura Rest of Mathura tehsil 34 0.1%

Unnao Unnao 122 0.1% Balrampur Tulsipur, Utraula 137 0.1%

Ambedkar Nagar

Akbarpur , Bheeti 170 0.1% Chandauli Chandauli 204 0.1%

Agra Fatehbad 38 0.1% Gorakhpur Baasgaon, Chauri Chaura, Gola

149 0.1%

Jalaun Konch, Urai 103 0.1% Firozabad Shikohabad 48 0.1%




April 2014


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Goods Trips


Goods Trips

Chandauli Chakiya 203 0.1% Hardoi Bilgram, Sadhyajpur 86 0.1%

Kushinagar Padrauna 153 0.1% Mirzapur Chunar 197 0.1%

Ramabai Nagar


94 0.1% Ambedkar Nagar

Akbarpur , Bheeti 170 0.1%

Jalaun Jalaon, Madhogarh 101 0.1% Agra Fatehbad 38 0.1%

Bulandshahar Dibai, Khurja, Shikarpur 26 0.1% Hamirpur Raath, Sarila 100 0.1%

Balrampur Tulsipur, Utraula 137 0.1% Sant Ravidas Nagar

Aurai , Gyanpur 199 0.1%

Mau Muhammadabad Gohna 162 0.1% Unnao Hasanganj, Safipur 121 0.1%

Kheeri Golagokarnath, Paliya 78 0.1% Ramabai Nagar

Akbarpur , Bhognipur 93 0.1%

Mau Maunath Bhanjan 163 0.1% Unnao Bighapur, Purwa 120 0.1%

Shahjahanpur Jalalabad 74 0.1% Deoria Deoria 157 0.1%

Kanpur Nagar Bilhaur 95 0.1% Sant Kabir Nagar

Dhanghata 146 0.1%

Jaunpur Badlapur, Machlishahar 181 0.1% Aligarh Atrauli, Gabhana 28 0.1%

Chandauli Sakaldih 205 0.1% Jalaun Konch, Urai 103 0.1%

Sant Ravidas Nagar

Aurai , Gyanpur 199 0.1% Balia Balia 159 0.1%

Kaushambi Chayal 187 0.1% Muzzaffarnagar

Kairana, Shamli 4 0.1%

Banda Baberu 112 0.1% Jhansi Moth 105 0.1%

Sitapur Mahmudabad, Sidhauli 83 0.1% External Zones

Himachal Pradesh (Surrounding State)

209 0.1%

Kushinagar Haata 152 0.1% Jaunpur Badlapur, Machlishahar

181 0.1%

Bareily Aawla 67 0.1% Mainpuri karhal 53 0.1%

Sant Kabir Nagar

Dhanghata 146 0.1% Moradabad Kanth, Thakurdwara 64 0.1%

Hardoi Shahbad 89 0.1% Ambedkar Nagar

Jalalpur, Taanda, Alaalpur

171 0.1%

Shahjahanpur Puwaya 77 0.1% Baghpat Bagpat, Khekra 7 0.1%

Agra Kheragarh 41 0.1% Kannauj Chibramau 90 0.1%

Mirzapur Chunar 197 0.1% Sant Kabir Nagar

Mehdawal 145 0.1%

Etah Aliganj 44 0.1% Sultanpur Jaisinghpur, Kaadipur 176 0.1%

Kheeri Lakhimpur 80 0.1% Kheeri Mohammadi 79 0.1%

Badaun Gunnaur 57 0.1% Ramabai Nagar


94 0.1%

Deoria Deoria 157 0.1% Hardoi Shahbad 89 0.1%

Aligarh Atrauli, Gabhana 28 0.1% Bulandshahar Dibai, Khurja, Shikarpur

26 0.1%

Basti Harya 142 0.1% Azamgarh Budhanpur, Sagdi, Nizamabad

168 0.1%

Sant Kabir Nagar

Khalilabad 144 0.1% Chandauli Sakaldih 205 0.1%

Agra Etmadpur 36 0.1% Mau Maunath Bhanjan 163 0.1%

Chandauli Chandauli 204 0.1% Gonda Karnelganj 129 0.1%

Allahabad Phulpur 193 0.1% Kanpur Nagar Bilhaur 95 0.1%

Bulandshahar Anupshahar, Sthana 25 0.1% Pratapgarh Patti, Raniganj 184 0.1%

Baghpat Bagpat, Khekra 7 0.1% Kushinagar Padrauna 153 0.1%

Agra Etmadpur 36 0.1%

Ghazipur Jakhniya, Saidpur 166 0.1%

Bareily Aawla 67 0.1%

Shahjahanpur Puwaya 77 0.1%

Shahjahanpur Jalalabad 74 0.1%

Sitapur

Mahmudabad, Sidhauli

83 0.1%

Sultanpur

Musafirkhana, Gauriganj

177 0.1%

Sitapur Misrikh 82 0.1%

Baghpat Baraut 8 0.1%

Bulandshahar Anupshahar, Sthana 25 0.1%

Chandauli Chakiya 203 0.1%




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Goods Trips


Goods Trips

Mau Ghosi, Madhuban 161 0.1%

Shrawasti Ikauna 135 0.1%

Faizabad Rudauli, Sohwaal 173 0.1%

Badaun Gunnaur 57 0.1%

Agra Kheragarh 41 0.1%

Bahraich Kaisarganj, Mahsi 131 0.1%

Etah Aliganj 44 0.1%

The movement pattern i.e. desire line diagrams for interstate and intrastate passengers are

presented in Figures 2.4 (a) to (c).

2.5. FINDINGS FROM TRAVEL DATA ANALYSIS

2.5.1. Passenger Traffic

i. A total of 22.60 lakh intrastate surveyed & expanded passenger trips were observed

in the State daily.

ii. The modal shares of passenger trips per day reveals cars carry about 28% and two

wheelers account for 25% share. The public transport (bus) share accounts for 37%

of the total trips. It is noteworthy, that 10% of passenger trips by auto rickshaws were

also tapped on regional road system on various roads in the State, indicating a larger

dependence of IPT modes in absence of inadequate public buses.

iii. Work trips constitute about 43% of the total surveyed trips. Amongst various

passenger modes 3-wheelers, cars and 2-wheelers are the predominant modes of

travel in this category. Bus trips which are long distance bound carry about 18% of

the work trips. Most of the work trips are local catered by personal and IPT modes.

iv. A total of 13% trips were observed for business purposes. Cars and 2-wheelers were

the dominant modes including 3-wheelers. Buses cater to maximum of 15% of

education trips. Amongst 15% of total social trips observed, buses carry 29% of these

trips across the State.

v. Buses carry 21% of tourism / recreation trips, whereas, overall share of tourist trips is

about 11%. 7% of tourist trips are catered by car traffic, which includes trips by IPT

taxis. A significant 5% of the recreation trips by 2-wheelers suggest that these are

mostly for recreation purposes.

vi. About 8% of the trips were tapped as return trips by various purposes. These are

mostly work and education trips returning home using the regional road system.

vii. The distribution of passenger trips by movement type i.e. between State and All-India,

vice versa and through components indicates that 80% (22.6 lakh) surveyed

passenger trips are performed within the Uttar Pradesh State daily. The respective

share for movement between Rest of the Country beyond UP Boundary and vice

versa is about 18% (4.89 lakh). The through trips were 2% of all trips. The intrastate

and interstate demand of the recorded survey trips is about 28.13 lakh.

viii. Average occupancy of passenger modes observed at the OD survey stations

indicates a value of 4.43 for cars, public modes 39.56. The average occupancy of 2

wheelers and 3 wheelers was recorded as 1.75 & 8.37 respectively.

ix. The frequency of trip occurrences suggests that 54% of trips occur daily and 18% are

performed weekly. About 10% trips are performed monthly.




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x. The zones found to be having significant interaction in terms of passenger trips were

also studied in detail and analysed for the entire State. Top 10 passenger traffic

generating zones (external and internal) were found to be Lucknow, Ghaziabad,

Agra, Allahabd, Mathura, Basti, Barbanki (Fatehpur), Sultanpur, Barreily, Faizabad,

Etah, Fatehgarh etc.

xi. Major traffic attracting zones were Lucknow, Razapur (Ghazaibad MC, Dharauti

Khurd), Bareilly, Mathura (Mathura MB & Cantt, Vrindavan MB, Saunkh, Aurangabad

CT), Agra, Hapur, Moradabad, Basti, Faizabad, Fatehpur, Nawabganj, Ramnagar,

Varanasi, Sultanpur, Etah etc.

2.5.2. Freight Traffic

i. A total of 1.86 lakh goods vehicle trips were observed on an average day of which

0.72 lakh were empty trips. About 66 % of goods trips have either origin or destination

outside within the State i.e. intra state goods vehicle trips and other 27% have origin

or destination in UP. About 7.2% of the goods trips are through trips (External to

External) with neither origins nor destinations in UP State.

ii. Total freight load of about 14 lakh tonne was recorded / observed at the survey points

on an average weekday which includes procurement / dispersal and movement of

goods from State. Of this about 7.5 lakh tonne is carried within the State movements.

About 4.7 lakh tonne has origin / destination within the State & 1.6 lakh tonne is

through passing through the State Road Network.

iii. Freight carried by various goods vehicles suggest that LCV carry about 0.46 lakh

tonnes of freight, 2-axle and 3-axle trucks move about 1.3 lakh tonnes. Multi-axle

goods vehicles cater to movement of 0.12 lakh tonnes across the State.

iv. The loading pattern of goods traffic analysed indicates an average payload of 2.79

tonnes for LCV’s, higher average of 10.81 tonnes was observed for 2-axle trucks. 3-

axle trucks carry on an average about 16 tonnes and Multi-axle trucks carry more

than 24 tonnes.

v. Lead Distribution of goods vehicle trips analyzed for their trip lengths indicates an

average lead of 85 km for LCV, 225 km for 2-axle, 344 km for 3-axle trucks. Multi-axle

trucks have an average lead 475 km.

vi. Major O-D Pairs for zones having significant interaction in terms of freight traffic for

productions and attractions were Mathura (Mathura MB & Cantt, Vrindavan MB,

Saunkh, Aurangabad CT), Moradabad, Agra, Allahabad, Bareilly, Bulandshahar,

Sikanderabad, Sultanpur, Gorakhpur, Rampur, Swar, Tanda, Varanasi etc.

vii. Similarly, freight traffic attracting zones with significant volumes were Lucknow, Kanpur, Banda, Attara, Naraina, Razapur (Ghazaibad MC, Dharauti Khurd), Allahabad, Moradabad, Hapur, Agra, Varanasi, Baara, Karchana, Bareilly, Dalmau, Lalganj, Unchahar, Mathura (Mathura MB & Cantt, Vrindavan MB, Saunkh, Aurangabad (CT), Gorakhpur, Fatehpur, Khaga, Raibarreily, Faizabad, Fatehpur, Nawabganj, Ramnagar, Sultanpur, Charkhari, Mahoba, Muzaffarnagar etc.

2.6. BASE YEAR TRAVEL DEMAND MODELLING

2.6.1. Context

The objective of modelling is to build a comprehensive transport model that accurately

represents existing travel conditions for all significant modes of travel and forms the basis to

forecast travel demand in the future under a range of input assumptions and scenarios. The

base year model will be used to simulate the existing traffic and travel movement pattern in

the State and subsequently used to forecast travel demand and movement pattern in the

horizon year.




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Travel demand models are one of the best forecasting tools available because its

development is based on transportation theories, travel survey data and statistical analysis

approaches. An operational travel demand model is required to enable estimation of future

travel demand that will help towards identifying requirements for the region. The main

purpose of travel demand modelling will be to;

- Forecast demand

- Estimate demand in absence of observed data

- Scenario testing- Alternative networks, policies, landuse etc.

- Project planning and corridor studies

- Compliance with economic growth & its management

2.7. MODELLING APPROACH ADOPTED

2.7.1. Intra-Regional Travel Demand

Based on the review of various regional transport demand modelling techniques, their

applicability in different case studies and keeping in view the essential attributes of a

desirable travel demand modelling requirement such as data availability, accuracy,

simplicity, policy sensitivity etc., a sequential four stage modelling approach to model the

intra-regional travel demand in the case study area has been adopted. For developing the

model framework existing transport network, modes and related parameters were studied

and utilised as input in model development.

2.7.2. Passenger

The regional level transport model for U.P state is based on a four step modelling and the

analytical framework for the development of transport model is as given in Fig. 2.5.

The travel demand model has been developed using CUBE software, which is one of the

leading transportation software packages. The structure of the proposed model will be ‘4-

stage’ model incorporating the components of Trip Generation, Trip Distribution, Modal Split

and Trip Assignment.

Fig. 2.5: ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORT MODEL

The above sub modules are used for:

- Identification of Origin Destination pairs those are likely to generate dominant traffic

patterns on the network

- Validate total passenger & vehicular trips onto the primary network

Primary & Secondary

Data Collection

Development

of Model

Strategy Formulation

based on Technical,

Economic & Financial

Evaluation

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Mode Choice

Trip Assignment

Traffic Data

Road Inventory Data

Regional

Plans/Documentations

etc

Demographic

Economic, Industrial,

Agricultural data

Scenario Building

Identification of core

network

Articulation of

plans/policies

Project Evaluation

Project prioritization

Implementation

programme

Stakeholder

Consultation




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- Assess traffic loading on the new network with respect to all alternative modes and

modal shifts based upon inputs pertaining to time and cost variables

- Assessment of System capacity versus utilization

- Formalise a consultative traffic network plan/design to accommodate future spatial,

supply and demand side changes/ interventions.

The methodology for development of transport demand model is presented in flowchart

below as Figure 2.6.

Fig. 2.6: DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORT DEMAND MODEL – FLOW CHART

The structure of the proposed model will be ‘4-stage’ model incorporating the components

of Trip Generation, Trip Distribution, Modal Split and Trip Assignment. A brief description of

various stages is as follows:

2.7.2.1. Trip Generation

It is the first stage in which the trips generated by the individual zones for the region are

calculated. The explanatory variables considered for regression model included zonal

population, workers etc. Simple regressions are carried out to identify significant variables

for the model. Trip generation models are developed separately for passenger and freight

traffic. Some of the important explanatory variables for passenger trip productions and

attraction models are population, per capita income, workers etc. while for freight traffic

some of the important explanatory variables would include NSDP, industrial production,

Transport Demand Model

Primary Survey

Traffic Volume

Roads Side– Bus– Pvt. Vehicle– Goods

Network Inventory- Roads - Rail- Network speeds

Secondary Data Collection

EconomicPopulationEmploymentSettlementsTourism & Industry

Vehicle registrationTraffic and travel dataToll post dataRail goods and passengersPlans and proposals

Travel Characteristics- Origin-destination- Frequency- Purpose

- Mode

Projection of Economic Parameters

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Assignment

Model Validation

Projection of Transport Demand

Horizon Year Networks

Traffic Intensity on Horizon Year

Network

Delineation Data of Traffic Zones

STATE POLICY, PROGRAMS, VISION & GOALS

SOCIAL /

ENVIRONMENTAL

POLICY & IMPACTS

Modal Split




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agriculture production, etc.

The trip generation models derived from multiple linear regression are of the following form:

T0 = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 +………………………+ anxn

Where,

a0 – Constant

a1, a2…………..an – Coefficients associated with each explanatory variables

x1, x2, xn – Explanatory variables that includes one or more planning parameters, socio-

economic and trip characteristics pertaining to each zone in the base year

While developing the zonal regression model, attention has been paid to the following

essential criterions:

- Independent variables should not be inter-correlated but independent

- Independent variables must be capable of interpretability and be measurable

- The size of intercept in relation to the mean value of dependent variable should be

small

- The signs of the regression coefficient must be logical.

2.7.2.2. Trip Distribution

The trip distribution within a trip type is done using a gravity model. The concept underlying

a gravity model is that trip end locations that are closer together will exhibit a stronger

attraction than those that are farther apart. Further, trip end locations with higher trip

generation will be more attractive than trip end locations with lower trip generation. In the

functional form, it can be described as the trip magnitude between two zones (i) and (j) is

directly proportional to the number of trips produced in zone (i), number of trips attracted to

zone (j), and inversely proportional to some function of the spatial separation of the two

zones.

Tij Pi Aj [1/f(dij)]

The equation can be rewritten as; Tij = Ai Bj Pi Aj F(Cij)

where;

Tij = Trips between zone i to zone j

Pi = Production from zone i

Aj = Attraction to zone j

Ai & Bj = Row/column balancing factor

F(Cij) = Cost deterrence from zone i to zone j

F(Cij) = e-tij (tij)-

Dij = Distance between zone i and zone j

where;

tij = Travel time / distance / generalised cost from zone i to zone j

, = Parameter’s to be calibrated

The broad methodology adopted for calibrating the OD matrix is as follows:

- To ascertain the relationship between friction factor and the time, the observed matrix is

iterated to get the first iteration matrix

- The trip length frequency distribution and average trip length (ATL) of the matrix derived

above is compared with the observed matrix.

- The iteration process is repeated till no significant difference between observed and

modelled trip length frequency distribution (TLFD) is observed.

The main criteria for calibration checks are:

- Shape and position of observed and simulated trip length frequency distribution should

be relatively close to one another




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- The difference between the observed and simulated average trip lengths should

be within 3%

Inputs for the model are as follows:

- A set of zonal trip productions and attraction

- Travel time matrix is adopted as the impedance matrix.

- Travel function value (friction factor):

The output of the model is:

- Modelled TLFD

- Modelled Trip Distribution Matrix

- Friction Factor to be utilised as the basis of future trip distribution.

Figure 2.7 shows the structure of calibration of Trip Distribution Model.

Figure 2.7 CALIBRATION OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODEL

2.7.2.3. Trip Assignment

The assignment has been carried out using ‘All’ or ‘Nothing’ Assignment method. To attain

validation of road based flows, assigned link flows have been compared with ground counts

for calibration purposes.

2.7.3. Freight Demand

Freight transportation models would involve developing freight generation/attraction

regression models, calibration of freight distribution model and assignment on the base

year highway network. Applying the base year models to future tonnage from various zones

and subsequently of number of commercial vehicle trips for each traffic analysis zone would

be estimated. Commercial vehicle volumes at external stations would be estimated using

transport demand elasticity and economic activity forecast. It is also proposed to identify the

special freight generators in various zones effecting the freight movement in the region and




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integrate them appropriately while forecasting freight demand in the horizon year.

2.7.4. Inter State Passenger Travel Demand

The inter-state transport demand modelling proposed is based on transport demand

elasticity approach. In this method elasticity values are worked out based on time series

vehicle registration data as dependant variable and net national product as independent

variable. It is based on the premise that vehicular growth rates are influenced by the area

economies of the traffic originating and destining states/regions. Under this methodology, a

quantitative relationship is established between time series vehicle registration data and

socio-economic indicators. This is done by fitting log-log regression equations with vehicle

registration data as the dependant variable and socio-economic indicators as the

independent variable.

2.7.5. Model Calibration

Calibration is performed at all levels of the model: trip generation, trip distribution and

assignment. The calibration and validation of travel demand model is essential to accurately

model current/future travel for a region. Model calibration adjusts parameter values until the

predicted travel matches the observed travel within the region for the base year. For the

purposes of forecast it is assumed these parameters will remain constant over time.

Calibration is conducted in all four steps of the modelling process and normally occurs after

establishing model parameters

2.8. MODEL INPUT GENERATION

2.8.1. Traffic Zone System

Regional model TAZ are created based on census boundary. The consultant’s has

developed the zone system based on census boundary at tehsil level. The zone system

comprise of internal zones (within the state boundary) and external zones. For the purpose

of study, the network has been divided into 207 internal zones and 15 external zones.

2.8.2. Transportation Network

The representation of the transportation system is one of the most important aspects of

travel demand modelling. The network serves several purposes in transportation system

analysis as given below:

- Inventory of existing road system

- The network is used in modelling travel demand to estimate the highway travel

impedance between zones in a region. This impedance is usually described as the time

or distance associated with each zone pair

- The simulation of travel in horizon year and in the estimation of impacts associated with

this travel.

A master transportation database is maintained using Arc/Info software. The database

includes existing and proposed road network facilities. Attributes have been coded for

individual segments that describe geometric, operational, and phasing characteristics.

Network has been prepared using GIS tool. This coded network provides the basis of

estimating zone-to-zone travel times for the trip distribution and for trip routing in the vehicle

assignments. The highway network serves several purposes in transportation system

analysis. First, it is an inventory of the existing road system. It is a record for the present

and future years, of the physical status of the highway system. Basic information such as

km of roadway, route configuration, capacity and counted volumes can be stored in the

network.

For the purpose of modelling, a network file has been developed. The basic elements of

network file are nodes and links as described in earlier sections in Chapter 3. ‘Links’

represent individual roadway segments whereas ‘Nodes’ represent the intersection of




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roadway segments and are also used as shape points to maintain the true topology of the

highway system. In addition to regular nodes and links, the network contains special nodes

called ‘Centroids’. Centroids represent the traffic analysis zones (TAZ) and are located at

the centres of activity in the zone. They are the point at which trips are loaded on the

highway network. External stations are centroids which represent the points at which

external trips enter or leave the region.

2.8.3. Traffic & Travel Characteristics

Travel surveys provide the underlying strength of any model and serve as the fundamental

data upon which it is built. The primary objective of this data collection activity is to reflect

the data necessary to eliminate and calibrate a set of travel models for a region. The basic

data required in model developed are as given below:

2.8.3.1. Travel Desire Pattern (OD matrices)

In transportation study, it is often necessary to know the exact origin and destination of the

trips. It is not only necessary to know how many trips are made, but also group these trips

with reference to the zones of their origin and destination. Other information yielded by the

O-D survey would include characteristics of the trip-maker, trip purpose, lengthy, mode of

travel, time and cost of the trip. Suitable matrices have been developed through the

rationalised OD data collected and coded at the traffic zone level.

2.8.3.2. Traffic Counts

Traffic volume counts are used to compare estimated roadway volumes to observed values

as part of the calibration of trip assignment model. The traffic count data used in the

comparison should represent counts taken during the same base year as defined for model

development.

2.8.3.3. Link Travel Times

Link travel times obtained through speed studies are used in the assignment process and

fundamentally determine which paths will be used on the network when travelling between

zone pairs.

2.8.3.4. Socio-economic Data

The indicators commonly used for regional assessment are usually from the following

parameters which have been compiled by the consultants at zonal level:

- Population

- Number of workers

- NSDP

- No. of Registered Industries

- No. of small scale Industries

- Value of agriculture production

- Value of industrial production

2.9. DEVELOPMENT OF BASE YEAR OD MATRIX

2.9.1. Background

The most vital information for travel demand assessment for a region is the existing travel

characteristics and travel pattern. The travel characteristics data is obtained through OD

survey. The OD survey was carried out at 101 locations on selected NH, SH, MDR and

ODR. The detailed analysis of the OD survey has been presented in previous chapter. This

chapter presents the development of base year matrix through combinations of various

matrices. Further the matrix has been updated by applying correction factors. The traffic

zone system adopted for the region has already been given in earlier chapters.




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2.9.2. OD Matrix Development

In a regional study, road side interview method is adopted for developing origin destination

(OD) matrix. The OD survey data of 101 locations was analysed and grouped to form a

single matrix representing the demand of the State. The locations of OD survey were

identified in a manner to avoid double counting at locations. Further the matrix has been

split into passenger and freight trips for analysis. Within passenger trips the matrices were

subdivided into public and private trips. The public bus trips were further subdivided into

private and state owned bus operations. An overall trip rate of 0.011 for internal trips with

0.018 and 0.009 for urban and rural areas respectively were derived from the field surveys.

In order to ensure that the surveyed expanded internal OD matrix is correctly developed

including the intensity of trip rates keeping in view the vastness of the study area a cross

check of trip rates as obtained from field studies OD matrix with those obtained from reports

of Regional Transport Studies was undertaken to ensure compatibility of trip rates and if

found necessary apply appropriate correction factors to reflect the likely travel intensity and

travel pattern in the study area. For this exercise four case studies of Regional Transport

Plan for NCR, Sikkim, Jammu and Arunachal Pradesh were considered and their trip rates

collated as shown in Table 2.13 below.

Table 2.13 OBSERVED PER CAPITA TRIP RATES – EXTRACTS FROM RELEVANT

REGIONAL TRANSPORT STUDIES IN INDIA

State Population (lakh)

Urban Population (%)

Trips (lakh) (Internal)

Trip Rate (internal)

Sikkim 7.3 12 0.22 0.030

Arunachal Pradesh 11.3 20 0.08 0.007

Jammu 41.0 35 1.13 0.028

NCR (National Capital Region)

444.0 58 39.0 0.088

Regression analysis was carried out on the above data set between Trip Rate and

independent variables such as population and urban population (%) respectively for

applying it on the study area. The following equations were found to be significant:

y = 0.001x + 0.018 (R² = 0.920)

y = 0.146x - 0.007(R² = 0.727),

where; (y) is the dependant variable (trips) and (x) is the independent variable (population),

R2 is the coefficient of determination

Based on the above equations the estimated trip rates obtained for the study area were

0.038 and 0.0245 respectively with an overall average value of 0.03 which was found

rationale and was adopted for the study. Based on this adopted overall trip rate and taking

into account the ratio of urban area to overall trip rate and rural area to overall trip rate from

the field data the revised estimated trip rates for urban and rural areas in the study area

obtained were 0.05 and 0.02 respectively.

Further detailed data of public transport trips of government owned buses (RTC) were

collected from secondary sources which provided a reliable source of generating its desire

pattern in the overall OD matrices while the derived private bus trips out of total bus trips

excluding RTC buses were taken from the field surveys in expanded form to provide an

expanded public transport OD matrix. The total public transport trips by bus analysed from

the RTC database (coded zone wise) was estimated at 11.93 lakh trips per day. The

additional trips as a result of enhanced trip rates explained above were distributed as per

the observed desire pattern from field surveys maintaining the observed zonal modal split

shares between public and private transport system from field studies. The resultant matrix

comprising private and public trips derived out of the above mentioned process was




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adopted for travel demand modelling process.

The expanded & estimated public transport trips were 26.28 lakh maintaining the modal

split of private and public transport passenger trips observed from the surveyed passenger

demand.

The summarised transport demand (Table 2.14) representing the final daily travel demand

estimates for the study area was estimated at 66.25 lakh trips per day, of which 57.77 lakh

trips are the internal trips. Further public transport trips estimated are 26.28 lakh, while

39.99 lakh trips per day are by private modes.

Table 2.14 ESTIMATED DAILY TRAVEL DEMAND ON REGIONAL ROAD SYSTEM

FOR THE BASE YEAR – 2011

Type of Movement Number of passenger

trips per day Percent

Internal Trips (I to I) 57,77,117 87.20%

Private Vehicle 37,40,627 56.46%

Public Transport 20,36,490 30.74%

External Trips (I to E & E to I) 8,48,006 12.80%

Private Vehicle 2,56,009 3.86%

Public Transport 5,91,997 8.94%

Total No. of Trips 66,25,123 100.00%

Total Private Transport 40 lakh passenger trips per day (60%)

Total Pubic Transport 26 lakh passenger trips per day (40%)

Modal Split of Regional Passenger Trips 40% favoring public transport

2.10. BASE YEAR TRAVEL TIME MATRIX

The inputs required to generate a Travel Time matrix are:

- Road Networking comprising of ‘Links’, ‘Node’, and ‘Zone Centroid’.

- Speed and Delay survey results giving speed and travel time between all identified

nodes of the network.

For any pair of zone centroids, different paths exist on the network (comprising of links and

nodes) with a different travel time along each path (obtained from speed and delay survey

results). The ‘Shortest Path’ between any pair of zone centroids is the one having minimum

value of total ‘Travel Time’. This concept has been applied for all pairs of zone centroids for

the preparation of travel time matrix.

2.11. TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS AND ITS CALIBRATION

2.11.1. Trip Generation Models

Trip Generation models for passenger and freight internal trips have been developed using

regression models based on the various independent variables such as zonal population,

zonal workers, zonal income, index of agriculture and industrial production respectively.

The best fit regression equations used in the trip productions and attraction models have

been arrived at after carrying out rigorous simple linear regression taking into

considerations a number of independent variables and finally selecting most appropriate

variable which best fits the observed data. Parameters in the regression equations are

optimized not only on the basis of r square and t-statistic but also their ability of optimum

predictability. Some of the other considerations in selecting the final model have been low

constant value, robustness, similarity in observed and estimated trip totals etc. in addition t

statistic were also applied for checking statistical significance of various variables at 5%

level of significance.

Appendix B-2.1 presents planning data developed at the traffic zone level which formed

the basis for developing zonal trip end models.




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2.11.2. Trip Production for Passenger Trips

Trip Production models for passenger and freight internal trips have been developed based

on the various independent variables such as zonal population and zonal income

respectively. Stratified trip production models were developed for passenger trips Urban &

Rural (Category 1 & 2) are described below and shown in Figure 2.8 to 2.12.

URBAN AREAS

Trip Production Equation - Population

y = 0.067x – 10457

R2 = 0.605

y - Passenger Trips

x - Population

Average PCTR from observed data – 0.06

Constant – 15% of Average value of trip production

Fig. 2.8 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN TRIP PROD WITH POPULATION

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.77787

R Square 0.605081

Adjusted R Square 0.591463

Standard Error 38142.81

Trip Production Equation – Income

y = 2.614x + 2522

R2 = 0.897

y – Passenger Trips

x - Income



y = 0.0672x - 10457 R² = 0.6051

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000

Tri

p P

rod

uct

ion

Population

Revised Trip Production Predicted Revised Trip ProductionLinear (Revised Trip Production)




April 2014


P a g e | 2-42

Fig. 2.9 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN TRIP PROD WITH INCOME


Multiple R 0.876806908

R Square 0.768790353



RURAL AREAS - CATEGORY I


y = 0.0003x + 18.85

R2 = 0.52

y - Passenger Trips

x – Population

y = 2.6149x + 2522.7 R² = 0.8979

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000

Tri

p P

rod

uct

ion

PCI

Revised Trip Production Predicted Revised Trip ProductionLinear (Revised Trip Production)




April 2014


P a g e | 2-43

Fig. 2.10 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT I) TRIP PROD WITH POPULATION


Multiple R 0.71992

R Square 0.518284



RURAL AREAS: CATEGORY II


y = 0.006x - 1580

R2 = 0.51

y - Passenger Trips

x – Population

y = 0.0003x + 18.85 R² = 0.52

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Re

vise

d T

rip

Pro

du

ctio

n

Population

Trip Production - Population

Revised Trip Production

Predicted Revised TripProduction




April 2014


P a g e | 2-44

Fig. 2.11 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT II) TRIP PROD WITH POPULATION


Multiple R 0.714863

R Square 0.511029



RURAL AREAS: CATEGORY III


y = 0.038x - 3010

R2 = 0.511

y - Passenger Trips

x – Population

y = 0.0068x - 1580.3 R² = 0.511

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000

Re

vise

d T

rip

Pro

du

ctio

n

Population

Revised Trip Production Predicted Revised Trip Production




April 2014


P a g e | 2-45

Fig. 2.12 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT III) TRIP PROD WITH POPULATION


Multiple R 0.714895

R Square 0.511074



2.11.3. Trip Attraction for Passenger Trips

Trip Attraction models for passenger and freight internal trips have been developed based

on the various independent variables such as zonal workers and zonal income respectively.

Stratified trip attraction models were developed for passenger trips that at Urban and are

shown in Fig. 2.13 to Fig. 2.17.

URBAN AREAS

Trip Attraction Equation – Workers

y = 0.196x – 14470

R2 = 0.46

y - Passenger Trips

x - Workers


Constant – 30% of Average value of trip attraction

y = 0.038x - 3010.R² = 0.511

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000

Tri

p P

rod

uct

ion

Population

Trip Production - Population

Revised Trip Production Predicted Revised Trip Production Linear (Revised Trip Production)




April 2014


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Fig. 2.13 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS


Multiple R 0.70

R Square 0.46



Trip Attraction Equation – Income

y = 2.995x+ 773.7

R2 = 0.676

y - Passenger Trips

x – Income (million Rs.)


Constant – 1.5% of Average value of trip Attraction

y = 0.181x - 12329 R² = 0.51

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000

Re

vise

d T

rip

Att

ract

ion

s

Workers

Trip Attraction - Workers

Revised Trip Attractions Predicted Revised Trip AttractionsLinear (Revised Trip Attractions)




April 2014


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Fig. 2.14 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN TRIP ATTRAC WITH INCOME


Multiple R 0.822713

R Square 0.676857



RURAL AREAS


CATEGORY I

y = 0.012x - 874

R2 = 0.50

y - Passenger Trips

x – Workers

y = 2.9953x + 773.77 R² = 0.6769

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000

Re

vise

d T

rip

Att

ract

ion

s

Income (mill. Rs)

Revised Trip Attractions Predicted Revised Trip Attractions Linear (Revised Trip Attractions)




April 2014


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Fig. 2.15 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT I) TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS


Multiple R 0.68

R Square 0.50


Standard Error 1147

CATEGORY II

y = 0.054x - 2863

R2 = 0.75

y - Passenger Trips

x – Workers

y = 0.012x - 874 R² = 0.50

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000

Trip

Att

ract

ion

s

Workers





April 2014


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Fig. 2.16 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT II) TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS


Multiple R 0.86

R Square 0.75


Standard Error 3998

CATEGORY III

y = 0.128x - 4214

R2 = 0.511

y - Passenger Trips

x – Workers

y = 0.0544x - 2863.5 R² = 0.7522

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000

Trip

Att

ract

ion

s

Workers





April 2014


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Fig. 2.17 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT III) TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS


Multiple R 0.711

R Square 0.50


Standard Error 15352

The trip attraction model for rural areas based on regression models were not adopted as

the constant values observed are very high, which is not representing true picture of trip

rate. Hence for estimating trip attractions for rural areas trip rate method will be adopted to

forecast trips for horizon years.

2.11.4. Trip Production for Freight Trips (Tonnage)

Trip Production models for freight internal trips have been developed based on the various

independent variables such as zonal workers and zonal income respectively. Stratified trip

production models were developed for freight trips at Urban, Industrial, Rural (Category 1),

Rural (Category 2) and Rural (Category 3) and are shown in Figures 2.18 to 2.24.

A. URBAN AREAS

Tonnage Production Equation - Workers

y = 0.028x – 1692

R2 = 0.623

y - Tonnage Production

x - Workers


Constant - 30% of Average value of trip production

y = 0.1281x - 4214.4 R² = 0.5058

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000

Trip

Att

ract

ion

s

Workers





April 2014


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Fig. 2.18 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH WORKERS



R Square 0.645188122



Tonnage Production Equation – Income

y = 0.313+ 342.3

R2 = 0.648

y – Tonnage Production

x – Income (in Rs. Millions)



y = 0.0287x - 1692.7 R² = 0.6234

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000

Pro

du

ctio

n T

rip

s-To

nn

age

Workers I-I Production Trips-Tonnage

Predicted I-I Production Trips-Tonnage

Linear (I-I Production Trips-Tonnage)




April 2014


P a g e | 2-52

Fig. 2.19 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH INCOME



R Square 0.648302848



B. INDUSTRIAL AREAS

Trip Production Equation - Workers

y = 0.008x – 184.1

R2 = 0.605

y – Tonnage Production

x - Workers



y = 0.313x + 342.3R² = 0.648

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000

I-I P

rod

uct

ion

Tri

ps-

Ton

nag

e

PCI

PCI Line Fit Plot

I-I Production Trips-Tonnage Predicted I-I Production Trips-Tonnage





April 2014


P a g e | 2-53

Fig. 2.20 SCATTER PLOT FOR INDUSTRIAL FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH WORKERS



R Square 0.604924971



Trips Production Equation – Income

y = 0.32x – 666.5

R2 = 0.595


x –Income



y = 0.0087x - 184.18 R² = 0.6059

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000

I-I

Pro

du

ctio

n T

rip

s-To

nn

age

Workers

I-I Production Trips-Tonnage Predicted I-I Production Trips-TonnageLinear (I-I Production Trips-Tonnage)




April 2014


P a g e | 2-54

Fig. 2.21 SCATTER PLOT FOR INDUSTRIAL FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH INCOME



R Square 0.595166712



C. RURAL AREAS (CATEGORY 1)

Trip Production Equation – Workers

y = 0.0023x – 31.12

R2 = 0.56

y - Tonnage Production x – Workers

Fig. 2.22 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT I) FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH WORKERS

y = 0.326x - 666.5R² = 0.595

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

Ton

nag

e P

rod

uct

ion

Income (in Rs.Million)

Tonnage Production - Income Line Fit Plot

I-I Production Trips-Tonnage Predicted I-I Production Trips-Tonnage Linear (I-I Production Trips-Tonnage)

y = 0.0022x - 31.12 R² = 0.561

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000

I-I

Pro

du

ctio

n T

rip

s -

Ton

nag

e

Workers

Series1

Predicted 61.6117508906188

Linear (Series1)




April 2014


P a g e | 2-55


Multiple R 0.75

R Square 0.56


Standard Error 184

D. RURAL AREAS (CATERGORY II)

y = 0.008x – 253.7

R2 = 0.54


x – Workers

Fig. 2.23 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT II) FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH WORKERS


Multiple R 0.74

R Square 0.54


Standard Error 781

E. RURAL AREAS (CATERGORY III)

y = 0.017x + 810.2

R2 = 0.848


x – Workers

y = 0.0089x - 253.78 R² = 0.5442

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000

Ton

nag

e P

rod

uct

ion

Workers

Tonnage Production - Workers Line Fit Plot




April 2014


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Fig. 2.24 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT III) FREIGHT TRIP PROD WITH WORKERS


Multiple R 0.92

R Square 0.848


Standard Error 1024

2.11.5. Trip Attraction for Freight Trips (Tonnage)

Trip Attraction models for freight internal trips have been developed based on the various

independent variables such as zonal workers and zonal income respectively. Stratified trip

attraction models were developed for freight tonnage at Urban, Industrial, Rural (Category

1), Rural (Category 2) and Rural (Category 3) and are shown in Fig. 2.25 to Fig. 2.31.

A. URBAN AREAS

Tonnage Attraction Equation - Workers

y = 0.024x –1399

R2 = 0.6

y – Tonnage Attraction

x - Workers



y = 0.017x + 810.2 R² = 0.848

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

I-I

Pro

du

ctio

n T

rip

s-To

nn

age

Population

I-I Production Trips-Tonnage Predicted I-I Production Trips-Tonnage





April 2014


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Fig. 2.25 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS



R Square 0.600526761



Tonnage Attraction Equation – Income (in Rs.Million)

y = 0.504x –429.5

R2 = 0.6

y – Tonnage Attraction

x - Income



y = 0.0247x - 1399.9 R² = 0.6005

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000

Att

ract

ion

Workers

Attraction

Predicted Attraction

Linear (Attraction)




April 2014


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Fig. 2.26 SCATTER PLOT FOR URBAN FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH PER CAPITA INCOME



R Square 0.602670266



B. INDUSTRIAL AREAS


y = 0.015x – 361.7

R2 = 0.560

y - Tonnage Attraction

x - Workers



y = 0.504x - 429.5R² = 0.602

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000

Att

ract

ion

PCI

Trip Attraction - Income Line Fit Plot

Attraction


Linear (Attraction)




April 2014


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Fig. 2.27 SCATTER PLOT FOR INDUSTRIAL FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS

Trip Attraction Equation - Income

y = 0.314x – 873.7

R2 = 0.6


x – Income



y = 0.0156x - 361.71 R² = 0.5604

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000

Ton

nag

e A

ttra

ctio

n

Workers

Attraction

PredictedAttraction

Linear (Attraction)




April 2014


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Fig. 2.28 SCATTER PLOT FOR INDUSTRIAL FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH INCOME



R Square 0.600190032



C. RURAL AREAS (CATEGORY 1)


y = 0.004x – 99.2

R2 = 0.52


x – Workers

y = 0.3146x - 873.7 R² = 0.6002

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Ton

nag

e A

ttra

ctio

n

Income (in Rs.Million)

Attraction


Linear (Attraction)




April 2014


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Fig. 2.29 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT I) FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS


Multiple R 0.71

R Square 0.52


Standard Error 590

D. RURAL AREAS (CATEGORY II)

y = 0.008x – 255.9

R2 = 0.516


x – Workers

y = 0.0044x - 99.207 R² = 0.5162

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000

Ton

nag

e A

ttra

ctio

n

Workers

Tonnage Attraction - Workers Line Fit Plot




April 2014


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Fig. 2.30 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT II) FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS


Multiple R 0.72

R Square 0.52


Standard Error 939

E. RURAL AREAS (CATEGORY III)

y = 0.018x + 264

R2 = 0.52


x – Workers

y = 0.0089x - 255.93 R² = 0.5168

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000

Ton

nag

e A

ttra

ctio

n

Workers





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Fig. 2.31 SCATTER PLOT FOR RURAL (CAT III) FREIGHT TRIP ATTRAC WITH WORKERS


Multiple R 0.64

R Square 0.52


Standard Error 2757

Based on the above trip production and attractions equations analysed for passenger and

freight traffic developed for various parameters, most relevant ones were finalized for travel

demand forecasting as summarised in Table 2.15.

Table 2.15 TRIP PRODUCTION AND ATTRACTION

Traffic Area (coverage) Trip Generation Parameter Equation

Passenger

Urban Trip Production Population y = 0.067x – 10457

Rural, Category I Trip Production Population y = 0.0003x + 18.85

Rural, Category II Trip Production Population y = 0.006x - 1580

Rural, Category III Trip Production Population y = 0.038x - 3010

Urban Trip Attraction Workers y = 0.196x – 14470

Freight Urban Trip Production Workers y = 0.028x – 1692

Industrial Trip Production Workers y = 0.0008x –184.1

Rural, Category I Trip Production Workers y = 0.0023x – 31.12

Rural, Category II Trip Production Workers y = 0.008x – 253.7

Rural, Category III Trip Production Workers y = 0.017x + 810.2

Urban Trip Attraction Workers y = 0.025x – 719.4

Industrial Trip Attraction Workers y = 0.015x – 361.7

Rural, Category I Trip Attraction Workers y = 0.004x – 99.2

Rural, Category II Trip Attraction Workers Y = 0.008x – 255.9

Rural, Category III Trip Attraction Workers Y = 0.018x + 264.4

y = 0.018x + 264 R² = 0.52

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000

Ton

nag

e A

ttra

ctio

n

Workers





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2.11.6. Trip Distribution Models

Trip distribution synthesizes the trip linkages between traffic zones and is used for

simulating the travel pattern. As part of the calibration of trip distribution models initial input

values assumed for the purpose of matrix calibration, & β were 1 and -0.5 respectively.

These were used as the initial seed values for the purpose of undertaking the trip

distribution calibration exercise. The final calibration parameters emanating as an output

from calibration process from the model are:

= - 0.020, β = - 0.123 (where β are the calibration parameters for production and

attraction respectively)

The trip length frequency distribution (TLFD) plot between observed and estimated trips

including cumulative distribution is shown in Fig 2.32 and Fig. 2.33 respectively. It can be

seen that the trip distribution has been calibrated as reflected from close resemblance

between observed and estimated trip length frequency distribution, which is one of the main

criterion for successful calibration of distribution model.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

No

. of

Trip

s

Time (in Minutes)

Trip Length Frequency Distribution

Estimated Trips Observed Trips

Fig. 2.32 TLFD PLOT BETWEEN OBSERVED AND ESTIMATED TRIPS




April 2014


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0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

No

. of

Trip

s

Time (in Minutes)

Cumulative TLFD

Cumulative (Estimated) Cumulative (Observed)

Fig. 2.33: CUMULATIVE TLFD PLOT BETWEEN OBSERVED AND ESTIMATED TRIPS

2.11.7. Trip Assignment and Validation

2.11.7.1. Background

The validation of trip assignment model is essential to use the base year assignment model

for future trip assignments .The trip assignment validation process involves comparing the

trip assignment model - generated link volumes with the observed traffic counts which is

carried out at various levels. Normally aggregate data is used to carry out aggregate checks

which, focus on reproduction of travel patterns at various traffic count locations in an area.

The statistics used to make the comparisons include:

- Absolute difference in traffic volumes

- Percent difference in traffic volumes

- Coefficient of Determination (R square)

The specific measures utilized in the process of trip assignment validation are :

- Validation target by functional classification of roads

- Percentage difference targets for daily traffic volumes groupings of roads

- Percent error by traffic volume groups and road way designs

2.11.7.2. Guidelines for Validation of Trip Assignment

Very limited guidelines are available for validation of trip assignment. Amongst these the

most widely adopted guidelines are by Fred Wagmann (2012) ‘Minimum travel demand

model calibration & validation guidelines for state of Tennessee‘. According to this the

guidelines for validation of trip assignment are as under:

i. Validation target by functional classification

The validation targets by functional classification standards are given in Table 2.16.




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Table 2.16: DESIRABLE RANGE OF VARIATION BY FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION STANDARDS

Road Hierarchy Acceptable range

National Highways 50% of freeway link volumes within +/-10%

State Highways 75% of Major Arterial volumes with 10,000 vehicles per day

within +/-30%

Source: Minimum travel demand model calibration & validation guidelines for state of Tennessee

updated 2012 by Dr.Fred Wagmann

ii. Percentage difference targets for daily traffic volumes groupings of roads

B grouping of daily volumes the validation target standards are presented in Table 2.17.

Table 2.17: PERCENT DIFFERENCE TARGETS FOR DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUME GROUPINGS

Average annual daily Traffic

Desirable percent deviation FHWA Desirable percent deviation

Michigan

< 1000 200 60

1000 – 2500 100 47

2500 – 5000 50 36

5000 – 10000 25 29

10000 – 25000 20 25

25000 – 50000 15 22

Above 50000 10 21



iii. Percent error by traffic volume group and roadway designs

The standards on percent error by traffic intensity groups with roadway design are

presented in Table 2.18.

Table 2.18: PERCENT ERROR BY TRAFFIC VOLUME GROUP AND ROADWAY DESIGNS

Statistic Standards acceptable Standards Preferable

Percent Error LT 10000 Volume (2L road) 50% 25%

Percent error 10000 – 30000 (4L road) 30% 20%

Percent error 30000 – 50000 (6L road) 25% 15%



2.11.7.3. Trip Assignment Validation Results

The validation of trip assignment in the cast study has been carried out as per the

guidelines prescribed by Fred Wagmann at two levels, namely

- Assessment of variation in modelled and observed traffic volumes

- Correlation analysis between modelled and observed traffic volumes through Coefficient

of Determination.

2.11.7.4. Assessment of variation in modelled and observed traffic volumes

The results of the validation by comparing the modelled trip assignments with observed

traffic volume counts are briefly described as under:

i. Validation target by functional classification of roads

Table 2.19 shows the results of validation of trip assignment by functional classification of

roads in terms of National Highways and State Highways.




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Table 2.19: VALIDATION OF TRIP ASSIGNMENT BY FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION OF ROADS

SN

District name Road Category & Name Observed Volume

Assigned Volume

% of variation

National Highways (Freeways within the acceptable range)

1 Sultanpur NHW-96 (Sultanpur Road) 20673 18402 -11%

2 Behraich NH-28C (Nanapara Nepalganj Road)

7177 6404 -11%

3 Goutam Budh Nagar

NHW-91 (Dadri-Sikanderbad Road)

38403 34501 -10%

4 Pratapgarh NH-131 Pratapgarh-Raibareily Road

4690 4317 -8%

5 Kushi Nagar NH-28 (Kushi Nagar - Tamkui Road)

12823 12183 -5%

6 Lucknow NHW-56 Lucknow-Sultanpur Road 25022 24556 -2%

7 Pratapgarh NH-24B (Lucknow Allahabad Road)

10557 10448 -1%

8 Allahabad NH-96 (Allahabad- Pratapgarh Road)

14995 14855 -1%

9 Kanpur Nagar NH-86 Kanpur Ghatampur Hamirpur Road

11203 11391 2%

10 Jhansi NHW-25 (Lucknow-Jhansi Road) 16288 16738 3%

11 Mirzapur NH-7 (Mirzapur-Hanumana Road) 6237 6482 4%

12 Ghaziabad NH-24 (Delhi-Lucknow Road) 99405 105621 6%

13 Saharanpur NHW-73 (Ambala-Saharanpur Road)

13157 13999 6%

14 Gazipur NHW-29 Gazipur-Gorakhpur Road 12008 13051 9%

15 Maharajgunj NH-29 (Gorakhpur Sanouli Road) 5674 6182 9%

16 Varanasi NH-56 (Varanasi-Jounpur Road) 19322 21363 11%

State Highways (Major Arterial within the acceptable range)

1 Fatehpur SH-13 (Fatehpur-Lalganj Road) 15681 15456 -1%

2 Kanpur Nagar

SH-46 (Bhognipur -Jahanabad Road) 17541 16462 -6%

3 Banda SH-13 (Banda-Tindwari Road) 16593 15456 -7%

4 Etah

SHW-31 (Agra-Etah Road Near NH-91) 17928 16355 -9%

5 Siddharth Nagar SH-1A (Balrampur-Novgarh Road) 12624 11145 -12%

6 Basti

SH-26 (Pilibhit- Bahraich-Basti Road) 14549 11325 -22%

7 Moradabad

SHW-41 (Kashipur Moradabad Road ) 18350 13498 -26%

From the above table it can be inferred that trip assignments between modelled and

observed trips along National Highways on 50% of NH links i.e. 13 counts are within +_

10% acceptable as shown in the table above. Within these the modelled trip assigned

varies between 1 to 26% when compared to observed link counts.

Further for State Highways out of 29 count locations along it 9 locations have a daily traffic

volume of 10,000 vehicles or more .Amongst these 78% of the roads i.e. 7 SH’s have traffic

volume in excess of 10,000 vehicles per day as well as the variations in trip assigned are

well within the acceptable range of +/- 30% as observed from Table 2.16 above.

ii. Percentage difference targets for daily traffic volumes groupings of roads

Table 2.20 shows the results of validation of trip assignment by daily traffic volume

groupings in the study area. For validation purposes the highest deviation values between

FHWA and Michigan shown in Table 2.17 have been adopted.




April 2014


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Table 2.20: PERCENT DIFFERENCE TARGETS FOR DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES GROUPINGS

SN District name Road Category & Name Observed Volume

Assigned Volume

% of variation

ADT Volume Less than 1, 000

1 Mahoba MDR-17 (Kulpahad-Naugaou Road) 835 1873 124%

2 Mau ODR-8 Mau Sultanipur Road 1290 2090 62%

3 Jhansi ODR-10 (Gauratha-Mauranipur Road) 701 1039 48%

4 Kanpur Dehat SH-40 (Lucknow - Etawa Road) 1476 1814 23%

5 Sultanpur MDR-66E (Haliyapur-Belawai Marg) 1297 1335 3%

6 Mirzapur ODR-4 (Lalganj-Kalwari Road) 1445 1337 -7%

ADT Volume (1, 001 - 2,500)

7 Mau ODR-8 Mau Sultanipur Road 1290 2090 62%

8 Kanpur Dehat SH-40 (Lucknow - Etawa Road) 1476 1814 23%

9 Sultanpur MDR-66E (Haliyapur-Belawai Marg) 1297 1335 3%

10 Mirzapur ODR-4 (Lalganj-Kalwari Road) 1445 1337 -7%

11 Hamirpur SHW-42 (Rath-Hamirpur Road ) 1656 1339 -19%

12 Kheeri MDR-14 Lakhimpur Maigalganj Road 2246 1499 -33%

13 Jalaun MDR-27B (Jalaun-Koch Road) 2101 1342 -36%

ADT Volume (2,501 - 5,000)

14 Varanasi ODR-49 (Mahao-Karakat Road) 3708 5745 55%

15 Mathura MDR-102 ( Mathura-Sadabad Road) 3299 4519 37%

16 Kausambi MDR-145 (Shiratu-Manjhanpur- Sarai Akil Road)

3430 3705 8%

17 Balrampur SH-26 (Basti-Behariach-Pilibhit Raod) 4379 4512 3%

18 Barabanki MDR-77C (Lucknow-Mahmudabad Road)

3873 3749 -3%

19 Azamgarh ODR-1 (Bilariaganj Raounapar Road) 4073 3932 -3%

20 Shahjahanpur SHW-25 (Shahjahanpur-Paliya Road) 2551 2425 -5%

21 Pratapgarh NH-131 Pratapgarh-Raibareily Raod 4690 4317 -8%

22 Faizabad SH-15 Faizabad-Raibareli Road 4509 3748 -17%

23 Allahabad MDR-121( Meja Kurao Road) 4601 3444 -25%

24 Deoria MDR-152E (Deoria Bhikampur Ruderpur Road)

3086 2072 -33%

25 Maharajgunj SH-86 (Maharajgunj Farenda Road) 3695 2350 -36%

26 Saharanpur MDR-2W (Nanota-Devban Road) 2775 1440 -48%

27 Jaunpur SHW-36 (Lucknow-Kerakat-Manjhighat Road)

4780 2338 -51%

ADT Volume (5,001 - 10,000)

28 Pratapgarh MDR-113 (Patti-Chanda Road) 8910 10762 21%

29 Aligarh NH-93 (Aligarh-Anup Shear Road) 9019 10477 16%

30 Mau SH-34 (Mau Muhamdabad Road) 7234 8167 13%

31 Basti MDR-31 (Basti Mahuli Road) 7557 8280 10%

32 Maharajgunj NH-29 (Gorakhpur Sanouli Road) 5674 6182 9%

33 Bareily SH-37 Bareily-Bahedi Road 9147 9517 4%

34 Mirzapur NH-7 (Mirzapur-Hanumana Road) 6237 6482 4%

35 Saharanpur MDR-147W (Nakur-Saharanpur Road) 6219 6443 4%

36 Pilibhit SH-29 (Pilibhit-Tanakpur Road) 5525 4983 -10%

37 Firozabad MDR-77 SiKihohabad-Bateswar Road (Near Canal)

5219 4672 -10%

38 Behraich NH-28C (Nanapara Nepalganj Road) 7177 6404 -11%

39 Badaun SH-18 (Badaun-Bulansher Road) 7047 5957 -15%

40 Faizabad SH-30 Akbarpur-Faizabad Road 6419 5025 -22%




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Assigned Volume

% of variation

41 Hardoi SH-25 (Hardoi-Shahjahanpur Road) 5093 3956 -22%

42 Farukkabad MDR-110 (Farukkabad Kayamganj Road)

6777 5158 -24%

43 Etawa SH-83 (Etawa Mainpuri Road) 9630 6954 -28%

ADT Volume (10,001 - 25,000)


45 Gazipur NHW-29 Gazipur-Gorakhpur Road 12008 13051 9%

46 Saharanpur NHW-73 (Ambala-Saharanpur Road) 13157 13999 6%


48 Kanpur Nagar NH-86 Kanpur Ghatampur Hamirpur Road 11203 11391 2%

49 Allahabad NH-96 (Allahabad- Pratapgarh Road) 14995 14855 -1%

50 Pratapgarh NH-24B (Lucknow Allahabad Road) 10557 10448 -1%


52 Kushi Nagar NH-28 (Kushi Nagar - Tamkui Road) 12823 12183 -5%

53 Kanpur Nagar SH-46 (Bhognipur -Jahanabad Road) 17541 16462 -6%

54 Banda SH-13 (Banda-Tindwari Road) 16593 15456 -7%

55 Etah SHW-31 (Agra-Etah Road Near NH-91) 17928 16355 -9%



58 Basti SH-26 (Pilibhit- Bahraich-Basti Road) 14549 11325 -22%

ADT Volume (25,001 - 50,000)


60 Goutam Budh Nagar NHW-91 (Dadri-Sikanderbad Road) 38403 34501 -10%

ADT Volume (25,001 - 50,000)


From the above table it can be inferred that the variations generally tend to decline with

increasing traffic intensities. Further it may also be inferred from the assigned trip volumes

that all the links shown in the Table above meet the targets of the highest deviation values

of FHWA and Michigan values in Table 2.8.

iii. Percent error by traffic volume group and roadway designs

Table 2.21 shows the results of validation of trip assignment by daily traffic volume

groupings roadway designs in the study area.

Table 2.21: PERCENT ERROR BY VOLUME GROUP AND ROADWAY DESIGNS IN STUDY AREA


Assigned Volume

% of variation

Percent error LT 10,000 volume (2L road)


2 Saharanpur NHW-73 (Ambala-Saharanpur Road) 13157 13999 6%


4 Allahabad NH-96 (Allahabad- Pratapgarh Road) 14995 14855 -1%



7 Kanpur Nagar SH-46 (Bhognipur -Jahanabad Road) 17541 16462 -6%

8 Goutam Budh Nagar NHW-91 (Dadri-Sikanderbad Road) 38403 34501 -10%





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Assigned Volume

% of variation


11 Basti SH-26 (Pilibhit- Bahraich-Basti Road) 14549 11325 -22%

Percent error LT 10,000 to 30,000 volume (4L road)


13 Kushi Nagar NH-28 (Kushi Nagar - Tamkui Road) 12823 12183 -5%

14 Pratapgarh NH-24B (Lucknow Allahabad Road) 10557 10448 -1%

From the above table it can be seen that trip assignments between modelled and observed

trips along 2 lane roads with traffic volume less than 10,000 vehicles range between 1

to22% which is well within the acceptable range of 25% preferred. Further 4 lane roads

between 10,000 to 30,000 vehicles traffic volume exhibit the range of error between

modelled trips assigned and observed volumes in the range of 1% to 3% which again is

much within the acceptable values of 20% error margin .

2.11.7.5. Correlation analysis between modelled and observed traffic volumes through

‘Coefficient of Determination’

The coefficient of determination (R square) estimates the correlation between the actual

ground counts and the estimated traffic volumes. It has been suggested in the norms and

guidelines that region wide coefficient of determination of more than 0.88 is acceptable to

infer that the trip assignment results are validated.

In the present study a scatter plot between assigned and observed link traffic volume has

been constructed as shown below graphically.

SCATTER PLOT OF ASSIGNED VS. OBSERVED LINK TRAFFIC VOLUME

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000

Ob

serv

ed

Vo

ulm

e

Assigned Volume




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From the above figure it can be inferred that the correlation between observed and

assigned traffic volumes exhibited through Coefficient of Determination is 0.89 which is

near to the prescribed value of 0.88 as per the Travel demand model calibration &

validation guidelines for state of Tennessee updated 2012 by Dr.Fred Wagmann.

From all the above validation tests it can be inferred that the trip assignment model results

in the study area are validated and the model can be applied for assessing future trip

assignments on the identified network in the study area.

2.11.7.6. Traffic Assignment

The observed trip assignments have been plotted graphically in PCUs for passenger and

goods traffic for the base year 2011. The assignment plots are presented in

Figures 2.34 to 2.35. The model has been used to validate the estimates of traffic and

model’ the travel pattern as obtained from primary surveys. The following are the key

concluding remarks:

i. The detailed operational model was able to replicate and validate much of the travel

and traffic patterns on the primary/secondary network and across survey points

ii. The exercise clearly highlights the major travel demand corridors in the State which will

form the part of the core network based on future traffic estimates.

iii. Around 26% of the primary network carries traffic more than 5000 PCU. In total 3% of

MDR and ODR network carries traffic load of more than 5000 PCU.

iv. The developed travel demand model is fully operational and can be subjected to

scenario and sensitivity testing across horizon years owing to proposed interventions.

The Transport Demand Model developed for the State was used to forecast and simulate

the travel demand up to the horizon year 2031. The base year economic variables have

been suitably forecast for the horizon year and these will be the inputs to the model to

project the transport demand. The demand forecast for passenger and freight traffic will be

one of the base for identifying and screening the core network for the State of Uttar

Pradesh.

The demand forecast along with settlement analysis and connectivity to major industrial,

tourism and other important sectors will be the main screening criteria. Consultants have

studied in detail the plans and policies of relevance to this study and appraised it in earler

submissions. The major policy interventions and proposals which are in various stages of

planning will also be considered in the horizon year network like National Expressways

identified by MoRTH and State Government, Border Roads, Golden Quad, NS/EW

Corridor, NCR Road Infra Plan, PPP initiatives by UPSHA, Bypasses etc. will also

considered along with the identification of core road system.

The highlights of the UP Road Policy summarized below will also be kept in view while

identifying the core road network strategy.

- lower transportation costs to increase competitiveness in trade

- better connectivity of villages to higher category of roads

- value for money of public investment

- reduction in road accidents

- modernisation of the construction industry

- integration of market centres with better road connectivity

- all SH and MDR to be two-landed by 2017 and 2022

- by-passes for cities above 5 lakh population and ring roads for cities above 10 lakh pop.

- provision of road side facilities

- overloading of vehicles to be checked

- modern maintenance methods to be introduced




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2.12. ASSESSMENT OF GROWTH DYNAMICS OF THE REGION(S)

Transport is a derived demand, dependent on the sectors of economy. Socio-economic

growth potential of the influence area plays an important role in the travel demand. Trip end

forecasts for the horizon year (2031) require an estimation of planning variables for horizon

year and it becomes imperative to carry out an assessment of growth potential of the study

region in terms of demographic and economic characteristics. In this context trends of

regional demographic and economic aspects together with various policies and

development objectives of GoUP and GOI have been examined with a view to build up

horizon year estimates to be used in developing future travel demand estimates for the

state.

2.12.1. Population

Uttar Pradesh is the most populous State in India. The State has witnessed high population

growth in recent decades without any perceptible sign of decline. The annual growth rate of

population in Uttar Pradesh stood at 2.33 during 1991–2001 well above the national

average of 1.94 per cent. The current population in the State, 2011 estimates, Census of

India recorded a population of 1996 lakh. The percentage growth of population during 2001-

2011 is around 20%. The percentage of urban population in the state is 21% which shows

the dominance of rural population (79%). The demographic indicators presented above

reflect an explosive situation in years to come for the State of Uttar Pradesh. According to

the projections on the basis of previous year’s growth rate, State’s population is expected to

grow from 1662 lakh in 2001 to 2170 lakh in 2011 and 2750 lakh in 2021 respectively.

The State’s population growth has been considerably higher than all-India’s in the period

1971-2011 including the period 2001-11 period in spite of showing a declining trend in its

growth rate as explained in Table 2.22

Table 2.22 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF POPULATION

Area 1951-61 1961-71 1971-81 1981-91 1991-2001 2001-2011

UP State 1.60 1.80 2.30 2.30 2.32 1.85

All-India 2.84 2.24 2.22 2.16 1.97 1.64

The population profile in terms of absolute size and annual growth rates of the UP region

for the year 2001 and 2011 is shown in Figure 2.36 & 2.37.

632 738

883 1109

1320

1662

1996

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Po

pu

lati

on

in t

ho

usa

nd

s

Year

Figure 2.36 POPULATION GROWTH IN UP STATE




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2.12.2. Population Projections for UP

Population projection is a scientific method. The analysis is conditioned by making certain

assumptions, using data relating to the past available at that point of time. Assumptions

used and their probability of adhering in future, forms a critical input in this mathematical

effort. Predicting the future course of human fertility and mortality is not easy, especially

when looking beyond in time as medical and health intervention strategies, food production

and its equitable availability, climatic variability, socio-cultural setting, politico economic

conditions and a host of other factors influence population dynamics, making it difficult to

predict the growth with certainty.

The Component Method (Ref. 23, Report of The Technical Group on Population Projections

Constituted by the National Commission on Population, May 2006) is the universally

accepted method of making population projections because growth of population is

determined by fertility, mortality and migration rates. Twenty-one States have been

considered and applied the Component method. They are Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar,

Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand,

Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu,

Uttaranchal, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The projection of the seven north-eastern

states (excluding Assam) has also been carried out as a whole. For the State of Goa and

six Union territories, Mathematical Method has been applied. The data used are 2001

Census and Sample Registration System (SRS). SRS provides time series data of fertility

and mortality, which has been used for predicting their future levels.

The salient features of the population projections at the national level, and some of the

underlying assumptions in this regard, are as under:

- The population of India is expected to increase from 1029 million to 1400 million during

the period 2001-2026 - an increase of 36 percent in 25 years period at the rate of 1.2 %

annually. As a consequence, the density of population will increase from 313 to 426

persons per square kilometer.

- The crude birth rate will decline from 23.2 during 2001-05 to 16.0 during 2021-25

because of falling level of total fertility. In contrast, the crude death rate is expected to

fall marginally due to changing age structure of the population with the rising median

1.6

1.8

2.3 2.3 2.32

1.85

2.84

2.24 2.22 2.16 1.97

1.64

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1951-61 1961-71 1971-81 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-11

Gro

wth

Rat

e

Year

Figure 2.37 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%) - POPULATION

UP

India




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age as a result of continuing decline in fertility and increase in the expectation of life at

birth. It will drop from 7.5 during 2001-05 to 7.2 during 2021-25.

- The infant mortality rate of the country, which is reported to be 63 in 2002, is estimated

to decline to 61 during the period 2001-05 and is expected to go down to 40 by the end

of the period 2021-25.

- Another important consequence of the declining fertility will be that, at the national level,

the population in the school-going age of 5-14 years is expected to decline from 243

million in 2001 to 222 million in 2026. The share of the population aged 5-14 years to

total population of all ages is expected to decrease by 5 percent from 24 percent in

2001 to 19 percent in 2011 and by 3 percent between 2011 to 2026 (19 to 16 percent).

- The youth population in the age- group 15-24 years is expected to increase from 195

million in 2001 to 240 million in 2011 and then continue to decrease to 224 million in

2026.

- Therefore, the report concluded that; 54 % of the population in the country, are aged 24

years and below in 2001, constituting 35 percent and 19 percent in the ages 0-14 years

and 15-24 years respectively. The combined proportion of these two age groups is

expected to fall from 54 % in 2001 to 39 % in 2026. The average Indian will be

expected to be of 31 years old in 2026 compared to 23 years old in 2001.

- Out of the total population increase of 371 million between 2001 and 2026, the share of

the workers in the age-group 15-59 years in this total increase is expected to be 83 %.

This will have resultant implication in the productivity of labour in future.

- The sex ratio of the total population (females per 1000 males) is expected to decrease

(i.e. become less feminine) from 933 in 2001 to 930 during 2026.

- The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is expected to decline from 2.9 during 2001-2005 to 2.0

during 2021-25. The assumption is that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) would decline

steadily and would touch the floor value of 1.8 in some states. With this, the weighted

TFR is projected to reach the replacement level of 2.1 by the period 2021.

- The urban population in the country, which is 28 percent in 2001, is expected to

increase to 38 percent by 2026. The urban growth would account for over two-thirds (67

percent) of total population increase by 2026. Out of the total population increase of

371 million during 2001-2026 in the country, the share of increase in urban population

is expected to be 249 million.

The salient features of the projections at the State Level compiled by the Committee are as

under:

- The population of Uttar Pradesh is expected to be highest among all the states of the

country at almost 249 million in 2026.

- The State, which is expected to have least growth in the quarter century (2001-2026) is

Tamil Nadu (15 percent), followed by Kerala (17 percent). In contrast, Delhi will have

the highest projected growth of 102 percent during 2001-2026. States, which will have

projected growths in the range of 20-30 % are Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West

Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. The population in the states of

Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh is projected to increase by

40-50 percent during 2001-2026, which is above the national average of 36 percent.

- Of the projected increase in population of 371 million in India during 2001-26,187

million is likely to occur in the seven States of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya

Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Population in Kerala is expected to

go up from 28 years in 2001 to 38 years in 2026. In contrast, the median age in Uttar

Pradesh is expected to go up from 19 years to 27 years.




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- State-wise proportion of population expected to live in urban areas by 2026. It is

observed that by 2026, 99 % of Delhi’s population would be living in urban areas, which

is highest among the states, included for projecting the population by component

method. In contrast, 12 % of the population of Bihar would be expected to live in urban

areas by the same year (2026), which is lowest among all the states.

- In UP the proportion of urban population is expected to increase by 27.2% by year

2026. COI, 2011 has revealed that there 7 million cities in UP.

POPULATION PROFILE OF UP STATE - 2011

2.13. ECONOMIC DIMENSION

2.13.1. Employment

Employment is an important indicator in economic profile of any State. As per census 2001,

the workforce participation rate for Uttar Pradesh stood at 32.5 per cent. The respective

figures were 33.9 per cent in rural areas and 26.9 per cent in urban area. The total number

of workers in the State in 2001 were 539.84 lakh, out of which 393.38 lakh are main

workers were (i.e. who get employment for more than 183 days in a year) and 146.46 lakh

were marginal workers (i.e. those who get employment for less than 183 days in a year).

The growth rate of marginal workers has been much faster. Thus, the main workers

registered an annual growth rate of only 0.12 per cent during 1991-2001, whereas the

marginal workers increased at a rate of 16.78 per cent per year. Marginal workers now

constitute 27.1 per cent of total workers in the State. Two thirds of the total workers in U.P

are still engaged in the Agricultural sector as per 2001 Census.




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Rural areas of U.P are also less diversified with 77 per cent of work force in agriculture.

Nearly one-fourth of total workers are landless agricultural labourers. According to 61st

Round of NSS-National Sample Survey (2004-05), 61.7 per cent of total workers in U.P

were employed in the primary sector, 18.2 per cent in secondary sector and remaining 20.1

percent in tertiary sector. The lack of diversification of the economy and heavy dependence

of people on land is one of the major causes of low incomes and poverty in rural UP. The

pace of diversification has also been slow in UP as compared to the all India level. The

growth of workers in UP state is shown in Figure 2.38.

The profile of workers in UP state is shown in Figure 2.39.

Figure 2.39 WORKERS PROFILE OF UP STATE

Over the years from 2004 to 2009 while share of primary sectors has decreased from 32%

to 26% there is an increase in tertiary sector from 47% to 51% and secondary sector has

marginally increased from 21 % to 23% respectively as depicted pictorially below.

318 388

535 566

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1981 1991 2001 2011

No

. of

Wo

rke

rs in

'00

00

0

Year

Fig. 2.38 GROWTH OF WORKING POP IN UP




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2.13.2. State Income

Income is one of the important parameter which indicates the economic contribution of the

District to the State Domestic Product. During the period 1999-2000 and 2005-06 the

annual growth of net income of Uttar Pradesh (Table 2.23) at constant prices was only

5.2% against the National average of 7.2 per cent. The growth rate of per capita income

during this period was 2.9 and 5.4 per cent for U.P and India respectively. It may be

observed that State contribution in Net National Income of the Country has declined from

9.8 % to 8.3 % between 1999-2000 and 2008-09.

Table 2.23 NET INCOME AT STATE & NATIONAL LEVEL

Year

Net Income in Rs. Crore (at constant price)

Uttar Pradesh as percent of

India India Uttar Pradesh

1999-2000 1786526 175159 9.8

2000-01 1864301 178997 9.6

2001-02 1972606 182885 9.3

2002-03 2048286 189682 9.3

2003-04 2222758 199682 9.0

2004-05 2388768 210462 8.8

2005-06 2616101 222242 8.5

2006-07 2871120 239070 8.3

2007-08 3129717 258067 8.2

2008-09 3339375 276677 8.3

Source: Human Development Report of Uttar Pradesh, 2008

According to the statistics revealed by Directorate of Economics and Statistics, GoUP, the

Net State Income at constant prices (2004-05) for the year 2009-10 (Table 2.24) has been

estimated at Rs 316,906 crore and the per capita income is estimated at Rs. 16,182. At

current prices the net income for the same year is estimated at Rs 453,020 crore with a per

capita income of Rs 23,132.

Table 2.24 NET STATE INCOME OF UTTAR PRADESH (2004-10) (Rs crore)

Year At constant prices (2004-05) At current prices

Total income Per capita (Rs) Total income Per capita

2004-05 2,29,074 12,840 2,29,074 12,840

2005-06 2,41,914 13,302 2,56,699 14,115

2006-07 2,61,417 14,109 2,94,031 15,865

2007-08 2,78,785 14,764 3,32,352 17,602

2008-09 2,95,814 15,381 3,84,718 20,004

2009-10 3,16,906 16182 4,53,020 23,132

Source: Handbook of Statistics, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, GoUP




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2.13.3. Per Capita Income

The per capita income provides an indication of economic worth and well being of the

population of an area indicating the purchasing power or the affordability. The per capita

income at district level (Table 2.25, Figure 2.40) at constant prices indicates that districts

with above the average PCI belong to the Western region, while those below average PCI

are in the eastern region and some bordering Nepal.

Table 2.25 PER CAPITA INCOME AT CONSTANT PRICES

District / Region Income (Rs)

Region 1999-00 2006-07 2007-08 2009-10

Saharanpur 13764 19799 21298 23030 Western

Muzaffarnagar 12756 17669 20468 21165 Western

Bijnor 12505 16922 18543 21419 Western

Moradabad 11603 14475 16818 18889 Western

Rampur 12054 13448 15979 16330 Western

Jyotiba Phule Nagar 13902 20527 21488 23382 Western

Meerut 15521 21605 23869 25536 Western

Baghpat 14236 19954 24009 27348 Western

Ghaziabad 16445 21545 23227 26426 Western

Gautam Buddha Nagar 32533 47198 46496 71961 Western

Bulandshahar 13864 18406 21976 23909 Western

Aligarh 11359 15689 17243 18323 Western

Hathras 11646 18826 22629 23477 Western

Mathura 12558 18749 19873 20550 Western

Agra 11357 17560 18799 21911 Western

Firozabad 9733 15508 15891 15405 Western

Etah 8773 13197 14672 15340 Western

Kanshiram Nagar * 0 0 0 15932 Western

Mainpuri 8756 11199 14393 14888 Western

Badaun 10652 13998 15576 16483 Western

Bareilly 11405 14885 17005 17480 Western

Pilibhit 9942 14581 16838 18520 Western

Shahjahanpur 9789 12702 14857 13814 Western

Farrukhabad 9032 13832 14666 15677 Western

Kannauj 8882 13330 15920 15609 Western

Etawah 8590 13105 14420 14573 Western

Auraiya 10475 12157 13758 15111 Western

Average PCI (Western) 11931 16699 18545 20846

Kheri 10006 13131 14466 13450 Central

Sitapur 7277 10597 12767 13484 Central

Hardoi 7080 10445 11279 11424 Central

Unnao 7356 12272 13214 14636 Central

Lucknow 13631 23355 24419 28933 Central

Rae Bareli 6762 9192 10361 11374 Central

Kanpur Dehat 9638 11817 12810 14377 Central

Kanpur Nagar 11554 19787 21688 25952 Central

Fatehpur 7298 9716 10868 12226 Central

Barabanki 8319 12920 14117 14651 Central

Average PCI (Central) 8892 13323 14599 16903

Jalaun 10018 14125 16988 18269 Bundelkhand

Jhansi 12142 17100 19250 24410 Bundelkhand

Lalitpur 8456 12950 16794 16970 Bundelkhand

Hamirpur 9808 12450 14991 16227 Bundelkhand

Mahoba 10813 14230 17115 20287 Bundelkhand

Banda 7688 11046 12435 13427 Bundelkhand

Chitrakoot 6047 8009 8226 9561 Bundelkhand

Average PCI (Bundelkhand) 9282 12844 15114 17555

Pratapgarh 5404 7086 7917 9386 Eastern

Kaushambi 6517 11217 12065 14627 Eastern

Allahabad 9452 12715 14805 15508 Eastern

Faizabad 6753 10066 11032 13282 Eastern

Ambedkar Nagar 5791 8739 9007 10656 Eastern

Sultanpur 6933 9981 11168 11647 Eastern

Bahraich 5493 8245 8918 10444 Eastern

Shrawasti 5123 5626 5456 7212 Eastern

Balrampur 5462 9270 10389 10420 Eastern




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District / Region Income (Rs)

Region 1999-00 2006-07 2007-08 2009-10

Gonda 5395 8916 9100 10293 Eastern

Siddharthnagar 6054 8084 9173 8805 Eastern

Basti 6170 8193 9405 9941 Eastern

Sant Kabir Nagar 5989 7961 8455 9120 Eastern

Mahrajganj 6778 7998 9257 9189 Eastern

Gorakhpur 6940 10585 11727 13291 Eastern

Kushinagar 6237 8024 8988 8817 Eastern

Deoria 5629 7528 8022 8504 Eastern

Azamgarh 6235 8226 8903 10016 Eastern

Mau 7866 10188 10105 13143 Eastern

Ballia 6199 8607 9542 9989 Eastern

Jaunpur 5947 7677 8715 9351 Eastern

Ghazipur 6313 8510 9683 10380 Eastern

Chandauli 8328 10878 12795 12415 Eastern

Varanasi 7826 11974 13037 15102 Eastern

Sant Ravidas Nagar Bhadohi 10581 10800 10664 13053 Eastern

Mirzapur 7766 9136 10722 11408 Eastern

Sonbhadra 17722 21454 19214 20929 Eastern

Average PCI (Eastern) 7070 9544 10306 11392

State Average PCI 9294 13103 14641 16182

Fig 2.40 PER CAPITA INCOMES (REGION WISE) - CURRENT PRICES

Western

Western

Western

Eastern

Eastern Eastern

7000 8000 9000

10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000 18000 19000 20000

1999-00 2006-07 2007-08 Year

PCI (INR)

Western Central Bundelkhand Eastern UP State




April 2014


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STATE INCOME PROFILE OF UP STATE

2.14. ROAD RAIL TRAFFIC TRENDS

Transport is essentially a derived demand depending upon the size and structure of the

economy and the demographic profile of the population. Greater the share of

commodity-producing sectors like agriculture and manufacturing, higher is the demand

for transport. Road Transport has deep linkages with the rest of the economy and a

strong multiplier effect. Several of the factors leading to the relative high growth in road

transport are structural. These include more dispersed industrial and business location

patterns and increased need for just in time deliveries. Structurally, railways are

confronted with the changing pattern of industrial production and geography away from

traditional industries and clusters towards a more dispersed pattern embodying high

value and low volume manufactures. This coupled with complex technical,

administrative working practices, service quality and inability to respond to changing

market conditions have led to erosion in the market share of railways in freight over the

years in India. Today road transport segment occupies an overwhelming dominance




April 2014


P a g e | 2-81

within the transport sector with a share of 4.5% in GDP compared to a meagre 1.1%

share GDP in case of railway.

2.14.1. Overview of Railway Sector in India

Indian Railways is the fourth largest railway network in the world in terms of route

kilometres. As on 31 March 2011, it has a total route length of 64460 km of which

21034 km is electrified. The total track length is 113994 km of which 102680 km is

broad gauge, 8561 km is meter gauge and 2753 km is narrow gauge. Considering the

requirements of the economy and size of the country, the expansion of the railway

network has been inadequate. Indian Railways have added 11864 km of new lines

since independence. While insufficient allocation of infrastructure development in the

initial years has led to creation of various bottlenecks, changing consumer patterns

have also led to pressure on the existing capacity. Both passenger and freight is

stretched and needs to be expanded. Not only has the railways traffic fallen short of

targets, it also has not met the requirements of freight segment. With this pace the

share of traffic on road sector is therefore; set to increase further unless major

expansion program of railways is augmented, which will require a mammoth effort of

modernization and generation of financial resources.

Table 2.26 REVIEW OF RAILWAY EXPANSION STATUS

Period Railway Expansion Status

1947 53,996 km Increase of only 10,000 km over last 62 years Total Length till 2009 64,099 km

Sanctioned backlog 11985 km Only 25,000 km planned to be added by 2020 Additional km, Vision 2020, IR 13000 km

Source: Vision 2020, Indian Railways

2.14.2. Overview of road sector in India

Looking at the road sector, India has the largest road network in the world with 41 lakh

km crisscrossing the subcontinent. Roads bear about 87% (Table 2.27) of the

passenger traffic and 63% of the freight traffic. Road share of total traffic in India has

grown from 13.8% in year 1951 to 65% in year 2011 in freight segment and from 15.4%

to 65% respectively in passenger segment. This trend is likely to continue with no

major changes in respective shares, keeping in view the plans and policies. During the

12th

Five Year Plan, Government plans to build 20 km of roads per day.

An insight on the existing road length status provided by roads in India suggests that

main pressure of freight is on the rural roads and interior district roads as also in Uttar

Pradesh to create capacities for truck movements. The passenger segment of railways

long distance will play an important role in coming years and balance will be served by

bus based public transport for intercity trips, with trip lengths of about 300 to 400 km.

Longer trip lengths for interstate demand will be dominated by rail sector. This implies

that core network will form an important dimension in the providing inclusive growth to

the State of Uttar Pradesh for safe, reliable movement of passenger and goods traffic

in coming years.




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Table 2.27 REVIEW OF EXISTING ROAD LENGTH STATUS IN INDIA

Category Percent

length to total Remarks

National Highways (NH) 1.70%

The total length of NH in India is 71,772 km, this makes up a mere 1.7% of India's total network, but carry 40% of the country's regional road traffic

State Highways (SH) 3.60%

State highways total 154,522 km in length and comprise highways interconnecting Indian states, these account for 3.8% of the total roads in India

Major District Road's (MDR) 6.50% Major District Highways total 266,058 km, these make up the second largest chunk of roads in India at 6.5%

Other District Road's (ODR) 88.0% Rural and Other roads are critical components of the rural economy in India and make up 88% of the total roads.

The trends of achievements and targets of traffic (Table 2.28) witnessed during the 11th

Plan Period suggests that rail traffic has grown at an average rate 5.5% over the

previous periods and according to the observed trends. McKinsey Study (Building

India-Transforming the Nations Logistic Infrastructure) has estimated that unless major

expansion program is achieved the freight segment may decline further to 25% from

the current share of 36%.

Hence, it will require a major increase in efforts and a conscious strategy to move the

road traffic over to the rail. This is going to be a challenging task.

Table 2.28 ACHIEVEMENTS AND TARGETS OF INDIAN RAILWAYS – 11TH

FIVE YEAR PLAN

Item Tenth Plan

Revised Target

Eleventh Plan Achieved

Achieved CAGR

Year(s) 2006-07 Terminal year

2011-12 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Originating Tonnage (MT)

728 1020 794 833 888 922 970

Growth (%)

6.97%

5.90%

Originating Passenger (Millions)

6219 8200 6524 6920 7246 7651 8139

Growth (%)

5.69%

5.53%

Source: 12 Five Year Plan, Planning Commission

2.14.3. Trends of road and rail traffic share in India

The rends in road and rail traffic share over the years reveal that road transport share

at present is at 67% while rail traffic account for 33% share in the freight traffic

(Figure 2.41)




April 2014


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Fig. 2.41 TRENDS IN ROAD AND RAIL TRAFFIC (FREIGHT) SHARE

2.14.4. TRENDS OF ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORT IN UTTAR PRADESH

Rail Network Capacity

The trend of railway network expansion in Uttar Pradesh shows no significant effort to

increase rail capacity over the years. In fact there has been very little growth in

expansion of railway network barring implementation of Agra to Etwah (110 km) in last

5 years.

Source: Indian Railways Year Book (2010-11)

Rail Traffic Trends

Data collected from Northern Railways from Lucknow Division suggests an observed

growth of 6% in passenger segment and 1.3 to 2.9% in freight segment during last 5

years.

Table 2.29 TRENDS IN PASSENGER AND FREIGHT TRAFFIC – NR, LUCKNOW DIVISION

Years Outward Passengers

(in thousand) Outward Goods (in

tonnes) Inward Goods

(in tonnes)

2011-12 86857 3016800 269713

2010-11 82498 3253260 288657

2009-10 79408 2994960 265481

2008-09 70785 2913660 262716

2007-08 64052 2618700 252901

Growth Rate (%) 6.3% 2.9% 1.3%

88 86 73 64 63

39 33

12 14 27 36 37

61 67

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1950 - 1951 1960 - 1961 1970 - 1971 1980 - 1981 1990 - 1991 2000 - 2001 2007 - 2008

% s

har

e

Years

Rail (%)

8798.8

8566.3 8545.5 8546.4

8574.8 8553.5

8763

8400

8450

8500

8550

8600

8650

8700

8750

8800

8850

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010

Cu

mm

Ro

ute

Le

ngt

h (

in k

m)

Years

GROWTH RAIL NETWORK IN UP




April 2014


P a g e | 2-84

2.14.5. Inferences on Rail network development of Road Transport Share in UP

Considering India as a whole, there has been a shift of both freight and passenger

traffic from rail to road. The share of rail in the total freight traffic which was as high as

about 90 per cent in the year 1950-51 declined to about 36 per cent now. In the case of

passenger traffic share of rail declined from 74 per cent in 1950-51 to 20 per cent now.

The reasons for the decline in the rail share are:

- Vast improvements done in the road system, particularly widening of pavements

- Railways are the preferred mode only for long-distance, low-rated goods (like coal,

ores etc.)

- Roads are preferred to carry perishable goods like vegetables, fruits and milk, and

high value goods

In U.P., the freight traffic carried by rail is coal and petroleum products. These will

continue to be carried by rail, even when the road system is improved.

As regards passenger traffic, only very long-distance travellers prefer the rail. The

improvement of roads as envisaged in the Master Plan will generate more local

passenger movement, and all this will be carried by roads.

The Consultants, therefore, are of the opinion that the improvement of roads as

proposed in the Master Plan will not have any effect on freight and passenger

movement by rail. Even when railways introduce Dedicated Freight Corridor and fast

Bullet trains, the effect will not be felt on road traffic, which is generally favoured for

local passenger movement and as feeder service to rail for freight movement.

Keeping in view the above mentioned facts, it is considered opinion of the Consultants

that Railways development in Uttar Pradesh will take place as per the historical trends

in the horizon years, as well, and will not exert major impact on the share of road

transport which is going to be the major mode of transportation on the identified core

network. Also it may be noted that the transport demand elasticity of road transport is

higher at around 1.6 with respect to GDP as compared to 1.11 for rail transport

(NTDPC Report) which shows that road transport freight demand would increase at

much rapid rate in relation to GDP when compared to rail. Further the passenger

demand by road transport is highly elastic to net income and urban population in

comparison to rail transport and thus, there would be heavy dependence on road

transport for passenger movement in comparison to rail transport on the affected core

network. Further, it may also be noted that the railway priority areas as outlined in the

12th

Five Year Plan document Working Group report are Dedicated Fright Corridors,

High Capacity Rolling stock, last mile rail linkages & port connectivity which do not

really affect the case study area significantly.

From all the above mentioned trends of road and rail transport sector and policies

hence it is concluded that there will not be any significant shift from road to rail in

coming years in the study area core network.




April 2014


P a g e | 3-1

TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST

3. TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST

3.1. PLANNING FORECAST

Any transport modelling exercise requires a number of model inputs, which determines the

causality with the travel demand. These inputs are normally planning and socio-economic

variables. Planning forecast involves analysis of the trends of socio-economic parameters

in the region and estimates its likely growth rates for different horizon years. The base year

economic parameters (Population and Workers) have been projected for horizon years

2016, 2021, 2026 & 2031. These variables forms the basis for intraregional transport

demand forecast. Forecasting of planning variables viz. population and employment has

been done using growth rate and trend extrapolation based methods. As part of these

methods a historic data of population & workers was collected from Census of India from

year 1951 to 2011 both at State & Tehsil level.

3.1.1. Population Forecast

Population data for the state was compiled from year 1951-2011. The data compiled is

presented in Table 3.1 below.

Table 3.1 GROWTH TRENDS IN POPULATION OF UTTAR PRADESH

Year Population (lakhs)

1951 632

1961 738

1971 883

1981 1045

1991 1150

2001 1660

2011 1995

The growth rates have been computed from 1951 onwards taking 2001 populations as base

data. The growth rates between 1951-2001, 1961-2001, 1971-2001, 1991-2001 are

presented in Table 3.2.

Table 3.2 GROWTH RATES OF POPULATION

Year Population (In lakhs) Annual Growth

Rates (%)

1951 632 1.95%

1961 738 2.05%

1971 883 2.13%

1981 1045 2.34%

1991 1150 3.74%

2001 1660

The growth rates computed for various periods were then applied to estimate 2011

population in order to select that rate for estimating horizon year (2031), which validates the

estimated 2011 population with the observed census population data. Accordingly the

population estimates for 2011 based on estimated growth rates results in a population size

of 1722 lakh in 2031 as shown below in Table 3.3.




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Table 3.3 PROJECTED POPULATION BY GROWTH TRENDS

Growth Rates Population in 2011 (lakhs)

1.95% 1692

2.05% 1693

2.13% 1695

2.34% 1698

3.74% 1722

As part of the trend extrapolation approach time series data of population was fitted using

linear and exponential best fit curves. The linear plot and exponential plots along with best

fit equations are depicted graphically below:

The population estimate for the year 2011 using linear and exponential equation results in

an estimated population of 1769 lakh by linear method and 1933 lakh by exponential plots

respectively.

Year Linear Projection Exponential Projection

2011 1768.9 1932.5

Based on the above methods estimates, it is observed that the exponential plot is the best

fit plot as the difference between observed and estimated 2011 population is less and

hence exponential equations has been used to project the state population. This population

y = 186.8x + 364.2 R² = 0.903

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 2 4 6 8

Po

pu

lati

on

(in

lakh

s)

Year

LINEAR PLOT - POPULATION

Series1

Linear (Series1)

y = 514.0e0.180x R² = 0.969

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 2 4 6 8

Po

pu

lati

on

(in

lakh

s)

Year

EXPONENTIAL PLOT

Series1

Expon. (Series1)




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P a g e | 3-3

forecast is in line with the predictions made by the Report of The Technical Group on

Population Projections Constituted by the National Commission on Population, May 2006.

- The report concluded that population of Uttar Pradesh is expected to be highest among

all the States of the country at almost 249 million in 2026.

- The population in the states of Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya

Pradesh is projected to increase by 40-50 percent during 2001-2026, which is above

the National average of 36 percent.

- Of the projected increase in population of 371 million in India during 2001-26,187

million is likely to occur in the seven States of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya

Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Population in Kerala is expected to

go up from 28 years in 2001 to 38 years in 2026. In contrast, the median age in Uttar

Pradesh is expected to go up from 19 years to 27 years.

The projected population for different horizon years is presented in Table 3.4 below.

Table 3.4 PROJECTED POPULATION IN HORIZON YEAR

Year Projected Population (in lakhs)

2016 2127

2021 2341

2026 2577

2031 2837

The distribution of population at deduced traffic zonal level has been projected using

exponential growth rates. Zone wise projected population for different horizon years is

presented in Table 3.5 below.

Table 3.5 ZONE WISE POPULATION PROJECTION

Zone No.

Zone Name Population

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

1 Saharanpur 1247618 1332235 1466469 1614229 1776878

2 Saharanpur 1348403 1439855 1584934 1744630 1920418

3 Saharanpur 868207 927091 1020504 1123329 1236515

4 Muzaffarnagar 1393686 1488209 1638160 1803219 1984910

5 Muzaffarnagar 1378398 1471884 1620190 1783439 1963137

6 Muzaffarnagar 1366522 1459203 1606231 1768073 1946222

7 Bagpat 575768 614819 676768 744958 820019

8 Bagpat 726387 775653 853807 939835 1034532

9 Meerut 810773 865762 952995 1049018 1154716

10 Meerut 2054254 2193579 2414602 2657895 2925702

11 Meerut 582378 621877 684536 753510 829432

12 Bijnaur 1559910 1665708 1833543 2018289 2221650

13 Bijnaur 643943 687618 756902 833166 917115

14 Bijnaur 1480042 1580422 1739664 1914951 2107900

15 Jyotiba Phule Nagar 826193 882228 971121 1068970 1176679


17 Ghaziabad 551114 588492 647788 713059 784906

18 Ghaziabad 1032992 1103052 1214195 1336536 1471204

19 Ghaziabad 1579626 1686761 1856717 2043798 2249730

20 Ghaziabad 718955 767717 845071 930220 1023948

21 Ghaziabad 778763 831582 915371 1007603 1109128

22 Gautam Buddha Nagar

369473 394532 434284 478042 526210


369473 394532 434284 478042 526210


566276 604683 665610 732676 806500

25 Bulandshahar 978945 1045340 1150667 1266608 1394230




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Zone No.


2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

26 Bulandshahar 1284941 1372089 1510339 1662519 1830033

27 Bulandshahar 1234621 1318357 1451193 1597414 1758368

28 Aligarh 1244729 1329150 1463074 1610492 1772763

29 Aligarh 1084714 1158283 1274990 1403457 1544868

30 Aligarh 460827 492082 541664 596241 656318

31 Aligarh 883578 943505 1038571 1143217 1258406

32 Mathura 570340 609022 670387 737935 812288

33 Mathura 746149 796755 877036 965405 1062678

34 Mathura 412577 440560 484950 533813 587600

35 Mathura 812826 867954 955409 1051675 1157641

36 Agra 381352 407217 448248 493413 543129

37 Agra 2194510 2343348 2579461 2839365 3125457

38 Agra 458659 489767 539115 593436 653230

39 Agra 443640 473730 521462 574004 631840

40 Agra 430528 459728 506050 557039 613166

41 Agra 472101 504121 554915 610828 672374

42 Hathras 1565678 1671866 1840322 2025751 2229864

43 Kansiram Nagar 1438156 1535696 1690431 1860757 2048245

44 Etah 476867 509210 560518 616995 679163

45 Etah 930660 993780 1093913 1204134 1325462

46 Etah 353624 377608 415655 457536 503637

47 Firozabad 1805503 1927957 2122216 2336048 2571426

48 Firozabad 691258 738141 812516 894384 984501

49 Etawah 685263 731740 805469 886628 975963

50 Etawah 583315 622878 685638 754723 830768

51 Etawah 310580 331645 365061 401845 442334

52 Mainpuri 818851 874388 962491 1059471 1166222

53 Mainpuri 328269 350534 385853 424732 467527

54 Mainpuri 700072 747553 822876 905788 997055

55 Farukkabad 1041966 1112635 1224743 1348147 1483985

56 Farukkabad 845610 902962 993944 1094093 1204333

57 Badaun 530665 566656 623752 686601 755782

58 Badaun 1377566 1470996 1619212 1782363 1961952

59 Badaun 1115120 1190750 1310729 1442797 1588171

60 Badaun 689387 736143 810316 891963 981836

61 Moradabad 1742642 1860832 2048328 2254715 2481898

62 Moradabad 1026636 1096265 1206724 1328313 1462152

63 Moradabad 974960 1041085 1145984 1261452 1388555

64 Moradabad 1028900 1098682 1209384 1331241 1465375

65 Rampur 975668 1041841 1146816 1262368 1389563

66 Rampur 1359730 1451950 1598247 1759285 1936549

67 Bareily 723401 772464 850297 935972 1030280

68 Bareily 930326 993423 1093520 1203702 1324985

69 Bareily 1106786 1181851 1300933 1432014 1576302

70 Bareily 1231257 1314764 1447239 1593061 1753576

71 Bareily 473574 505693 556646 612733 674472

72 Pilibhit 1227341 1310582 1442635 1587994 1747999

73 Pilibhit 809884 864813 951950 1047868 1153450

74 Shahjahanpur 536858 573269 631032 694614 764602

75 Shahjahanpur 1097998 1172467 1290604 1420644 1563787

76 Shahjahanpur 691659 738570 812988 894904 985073

77 Shahjahanpur 675859 721698 794416 874460 962570

78 Kheeri 1008674 1077085 1185612 1305073 1436571

79 Kheeri 824338 880247 968940 1066569 1174036

80 Kheeri 1147817 1225665 1349162 1485102 1634740

81 Kheeri 1032805 1102852 1213974 1336293 1470937

82 Sitapur 1037024 1107358 1218934 1341753 1476946

83 Sitapur 1064894 1137118 1251693 1377813 1516640

84 Sitapur 1087135 1160867 1277835 1406589 1548315




April 2014


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Zone No.


2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

85 Sitapur 1285393 1372571 1510870 1663104 1830677

86 Hardoi 1183105 1263347 1390640 1530760 1684998

87 Hardoi 1207686 1289595 1419533 1562564 1720007

88 Hardoi 997355 1064999 1172307 1290428 1420450

89 Hardoi 703232 750928 826590 909877 1001555

90 Kannauj 756578 807891 889294 978898 1077531

91 Kannauj 901427 962564 1059551 1166311 1283827

92 Auraiya 1372287 1465359 1613007 1775532 1954433

93 Ramabai Nagar 959752 1024845 1128108 1241775 1366895

94 Ramabai Nagar 835339 891995 981871 1080804 1189705

95 Kanpur Nagar 508616 543113 597836 658074 724381

96 Kanpur Nagar 565210 603545 664357 731297 804982

97 Kanpur Nagar 3499124 3736443 4112924 4527338 4983509

98 Hamirpur 348356 371982 409463 450720 496134

99 Hamirpur 341813 364996 401773 442255 486817

100 Hamirpur 413851 441920 486447 535461 589414

101 Jalaun 569968 608625 669950 737453 811758

102 Jalaun 368135 393103 432712 476311 524304

103 Jalaun 732614 782302 861126 947892 1043401

104 Jhansi 737766 787804 867182 954559 1050739

105 Jhansi 356979 381191 419600 461878 508416

106 Jhansi 906008 967457 1064937 1172239 1290352

107 Lalitpur 556881 594651 654567 720521 793120

108 Lalitpur 661120 705959 777091 855390 941578

109 Mahoba 537633 574097 631943 695617 765706

110 Mahoba 338421 361374 397786 437866 481985

111 Banda 1225487 1308603 1440457 1585596 1745359

112 Banda 574053 612987 674751 742739 817576

113 Chitrakoot 990626 1057813 1164397 1281721 1410866

114 Fatehpur 775791 828408 911878 1003758 1104895

115 Fatehpur 1856892 1982832 2182620 2402539 2644616

116 Raibareily 1154280 1232567 1356759 1493465 1643945

117 Raibareily 432495 461828 508361 559583 615967

118 Raibareily 847097 904550 995692 1096017 1206450

119 Raibareily 970131 1035928 1140307 1255203 1381676

120 Unnao 820041 875659 963890 1061011 1167917

121 Unnao 1436452 1533876 1688428 1858552 2045818

122 Unnao 854101 912029 1003924 1105078 1216425

123 Lucknow 710453 758638 835077 919219 1011839

124 Lucknow 3366436 3594757 3956961 4355661 4794534

125 Lucknow 511565 546261 601302 661889 728580

126 Barabanki 1899136 2027941 2232274 2457196 2704781

127 Barabanki 1358847 1451007 1597209 1758143 1935291

128 Gonda 1179948 1259975 1386929 1526675 1680501

129 Gonda 829831 886112 975396 1073676 1181859

130 Gonda 1421607 1518024 1670979 1839345 2024675

131 Bahraich 1304517 1392993 1533350 1687849 1857915

132 Bahraich 1310377 1399250 1540237 1695430 1866260

133 Bahraich 863362 921918 1014810 1117061 1229615

134 Shrawasti 665931 711097 782746 861615 948431

135 Shrawasti 448683 479114 527389 580529 639022

136 Balrampur 645428 689203 758647 835087 919230

137 Balrampur 1503637 1605618 1767399 1945480 2141505

138 Siddhart Nagar 854181 912114 1004018 1105182 1216539

139 Siddhart Nagar 944809 1008889 1110543 1222440 1345612

140 Siddhart Nagar 754535 805710 886893 976255 1074622

141 Basti 1009052 1077489 1186055 1305561 1437108

142 Basti 943082 1007045 1108514 1220207 1343154

143 Basti 508921 543437 598194 658467 724814




April 2014


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Zone No.


2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

144 Sant Kabir Nagar 740920 791172 870890 958640 1055232

145 Sant Kabir Nagar 471420 503393 554115 609947 671404

146 Sant Kabir Nagar 501958 536003 590010 649459 714898

147 Maharjganj 1749392 1868040 2056262 2263449 2491512

148 Maharjganj 915900 978019 1076563 1185037 1304440

149 Gorakhpur 1331502 1421808 1565068 1722763 1896346

150 Gorakhpur 1172318 1251827 1377960 1516802 1669634

151 Gorakhpur 1932455 2063520 2271438 2500306 2752234

152 Kushinagar 1123918 1200146 1321071 1454181 1600703

153 Kushinagar 1160116 1238798 1363618 1501015 1652256

154 Kushinagar 1276796 1363391 1500765 1651981 1818433

155 Deoria 581152 620568 683096 751924 827687

156 Deoria 1127923 1204422 1325778 1459362 1606406

157 Deoria 1389561 1483805 1633312 1797883 1979036

158 Ballia 841806 898900 989472 1089170 1198914

159 Ballia 1105228 1180187 1299101 1429998 1574083

160 Ballia 1276608 1363191 1500545 1651739 1818166

161 Mau 823892 879771 968416 1065993 1173402

162 Mau 451411 482027 530596 584058 642907

163 Mau 929866 992932 1092979 1203106 1324330

164 Ghazipur 1607802 1716848 1889835 2080254 2289858

165 Ghazipur 836540 893277 983283 1082357 1191415

166 Ghazipur 1178384 1258305 1385091 1524652 1678274

167 Azamgarh 812129 867210 954589 1050773 1156648

168 Azamgarh 2247901 2400360 2642218 2908445 3201497

169 Azamgarh 1556479 1662043 1829509 2013849 2216762

170 Ambedkar Nagar 799237 853444 939437 1034093 1138288

171 Ambedkar Nagar 1599471 1707951 1880043 2069474 2277993

172 Faizabad 933176 996467 1096870 1207390 1329046

173 Faizabad 665967 711136 782789 861662 948482

174 Faizabad 869226 928179 1021702 1124648 1237966

175 Sultanpur 936891 1000434 1101237 1212196 1334336

176 Sultanpur 837064 893836 983898 1083035 1192160

177 Sultanpur 1089607 1163507 1280741 1409787 1551836

178 Sultanpur 927359 990256 1090033 1199864 1320761

179 Jaunpur 1135188 1212180 1334318 1468763 1616754

180 Jaunpur 1532588 1636533 1801428 1982938 2182737

181 Jaunpur 1075944 1148917 1264681 1392109 1532377

182 Jaunpur 732351 782022 860817 947553 1043027

183 Pratapgarh 855079 913073 1005073 1106344 1217818

184 Pratapgarh 976420 1042644 1147699 1263341 1390634

185 Pratapgarh 696881 744146 819126 901660 992510

186 Pratapgarh 645370 689141 758579 835012 919147

187 Kaushambi 521699 557083 613214 675001 743013

188 Kaushambi 554918 592554 652260 717981 790324

189 Kaushambi 520290 555578 611558 673178 741007

190 Allahabad 950516 1014983 1117252 1229825 1353742

191 Allahabad 937265 1000834 1101677 1212681 1334869

192 Allahabad 930867 994002 1094156 1204403 1325757

193 Allahabad 865655 924367 1017505 1120028 1232881

194 Allahabad 1258376 1343722 1479114 1628148 1792199

195 Allahabad 1017116 1086100 1195534 1315995 1448594

196 Mirzapur 1181700 1261846 1388989 1528942 1682997

197 Mirzapur 640752 684210 753150 829037 912569

198 Mirzapur 672080 717663 789974 869571 957188

199 Sant Ravidas Nagar 870031 929039 1022648 1125689 1239113


201 Varanasi 2932601 3131497 3447024 3794343 4176658

202 Varanasi 749593 800433 881084 969861 1067583




April 2014


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Zone No.


2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

203 Chandauli 420456 448972 494211 544007 598820

204 Chandauli 835536 892204 982102 1081058 1189984

205 Chandauli 696720 743974 818937 901452 992281

206 Sonabhadra 680780 726952 800199 880827 969578

207 Sonabhadra 1181832 1261987 1389143 1529112 1683184

Total

199213938 212723069 234156847 257750271 283720947

3.1.2. Workers Forecast

The data for workers for the State has been compiled from year 1981-2001. The data

compiled is presented in Table 3.6 below.

Table 3.6 TRENDS IN WORKERS

Year Workers (lakhs)

1981 318.1

1991 387.6

2001 535.2

The observed average annual growth rates (CAGR) between 1981-2001 and 1991-2001 is

given below:

Year Workers CAGR

1981 31810905 2.6%

1991 38759973 3.3%

2001 53527821

The growth rates calculated were then applied to estimate horizon year 2011, 2021 and

2031 work force and are tabulated below:

Year Workers

At CAGR 2.7 At CAGR 3.3

2011 54938872 55283964

2021 67073906 67495222

2031 68842047 69709608

As part of the trend extrapolation approach the linear and exponential plot of workers from

1981-2001 is shown below. The exponential plot between year and population (from 1981-

2001) is as given below:




April 2014


P a g e | 3-8

Table below summarises the work force estimate for the year 2011 using linear and

exponential equation.

Year Linear Projection Exponential Projection

2011 60000000 56584340

Based on the above calculations it is observed that the exponential plot is the best fit plot as

the difference between observed and estimated 2011 population is less. Hence exponential

equations have been used to project the state workers population. The projected population

of workers for different horizon years is presented in Table 3.7 below:

Table 3.7 PROJECTED WORKERS POPULATION

Year Projected Workers Population (lakhs)

Linear Projections Exponential Projections

2011 600 565.84

2021 700 733.86

2031 800 951.76

y = 1E+07x + 2E+07 R² = 0.9586

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

0 1 2 3 4

Wo

rke

rs

Year

LINEAR PLOT

Series1

Linear (Series1)

y = 2E+07e0.2602x R² = 0.9811

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

0 1 2 3 4

Wo

rke

rs

Year

EXPONENTIAL PLOT

Series1

Expon. (Series1)




April 2014


P a g e | 3-9

Exponential equations have been used to project the state workforce at zonal level. Zone

wise projected population for different horizon years is presented in Table 3.8 below.

Table 3.8 ZONE WISE WORKERS PROJECTION

Zones Zone Name Workers

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

1 Saharanpur 306908 349516 398039 453298 516228

2 Saharanpur 330216 376060 428267 487723 555433

3 Saharanpur 225397 256689 292325 332907 379124

4 Muzaffarnagar 400175 455731 518999 591051 673106

5 Muzaffarnagar 441279 502541 572307 651760 742243

6 Muzaffarnagar 398688 454037 517070 588854 670604

7 Bagpat 175871 200287 228092 259758 295820

8 Bagpat 226155 257552 293308 334027 380399

9 Meerut 248031 282465 321679 366337 417195

10 Meerut 520859 593169 675518 769299 876100

11 Meerut 170485 194153 221107 251803 286761

12 Bijnaur 260386 296535 337703 384586 437977

13 Bijnaur 145095 165238 188178 214302 244053

14 Bijnaur 327582 373060 424851 483832 551002



17 Ghaziabad 137195 156241 177932 202634 230766

18 Ghaziabad 212116 241564 275099 313291 356785

19 Ghaziabad 330774 376695 428991 488548 556372

20 Ghaziabad 145148 165299 188247 214382 244144

21 Ghaziabad 174228 198416 225962 257332 293057


167353 190586 217045 247177 281492


72706 82800 94295 107386 122294


114213 130070 148127 168691 192110

25 Bulandshahar 379346 432010 491985 560287 638071

26 Bulandshahar 462047 526193 599243 682435 777177

27 Bulandshahar 427742 487125 554752 631767 719475

28 Aligarh 331931 378012 430491 490256 558317

29 Aligarh 246880 281154 320186 364637 415259

30 Aligarh 121706 138602 157844 179758 204713

31 Aligarh 268103 305323 347711 395983 450957

32 Mathura 197333 224729 255928 291458 331920

33 Mathura 186664 212578 242090 275699 313974

34 Mathura 124110 141340 160962 183308 208757

35 Mathura 306831 349428 397939 453184 516098

36 Agra 95736 109027 124163 141401 161031

37 Agra 501434 571047 650325 740608 843426

38 Agra 116878 133104 151583 172627 196593

39 Agra 103449 117811 134166 152792 174004

40 Agra 105605 120267 136963 155977 177631

41 Agra 113893 129705 147711 168218 191571

42 Hathras 414352 471876 537386 611990 696952

43 Kansiram Nagar 314982 358711 408510 465223 529809

44 Etah 124173 141412 161044 183402 208863

45 Etah 238100 271156 308800 351670 400492

46 Etah 91616 104335 118819 135315 154100

47 Firozabad 298391 339816 386993 440718 501902

48 Firozabad 160178 182416 207740 236580 269424

49 Etawah 170943 194675 221701 252479 287531

50 Etawah 140944 160511 182795 208172 237072

51 Etawah 77770 88567 100862 114865 130811

52 Mainpuri 213289 242900 276621 315024 358758




April 2014


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2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

53 Mainpuri 85357 97207 110702 126070 143572

54 Mainpuri 165631 188625 214812 244634 278596

55 Farukkabad 272168 309952 352982 401986 457794

56 Farukkabad 217115 247257 281583 320675 365193

57 Badaun 154138 175537 199906 227659 259265

58 Badaun 370681 422142 480747 547489 623496

59 Badaun 273387 311340 354563 403787 459844

60 Badaun 176548 201057 228970 260757 296958

61 Moradabad 425357 484408 551658 628243 715461

62 Moradabad 306341 348869 397302 452459 515273

63 Moradabad 228656 260400 296551 337721 384606

64 Moradabad 288353 328385 373974 425892 485018

65 Rampur 253082 288217 328229 373797 425690

66 Rampur 322416 367176 418151 476202 542313

67 Bareily 197445 224856 256073 291623 332109

68 Bareily 232501 264779 301538 343400 391073

69 Bareily 322043 366751 417667 475651 541685

70 Bareily 290024 330288 376141 428360 487829

71 Bareily 115598 131647 149923 170736 194440

72 Pilibhit 311842 355134 404437 460584 524526

73 Pilibhit 202229 230304 262277 298688 340154

74 Shahjahanpur 134901 153629 174957 199246 226907

75 Shahjahanpur 268915 306248 348764 397182 452322

76 Shahjahanpur 171399 195195 222293 253154 288299

77 Shahjahanpur 169578 193120 219931 250464 285235

78 Kheeri 278441 317096 361118 411251 468345

79 Kheeri 197663 225104 256355 291945 332475

80 Kheeri 292513 333122 379368 432036 492014

81 Kheeri 296794 337997 384921 438359 499216

82 Sitapur 275975 314289 357921 407610 464198

83 Sitapur 286955 326793 372161 423828 482667

84 Sitapur 282479 321695 366355 417216 475137

85 Sitapur 344368 392176 446621 508625 579236

86 Hardoi 341905 389371 443426 504987 575093

87 Hardoi 325667 370878 422367 481003 547780

88 Hardoi 308868 351748 400580 456192 519525

89 Hardoi 183900 209430 238505 271616 309324

90 Kannauj 218015 248281 282750 322003 366706

91 Kannauj 265706 302593 344602 392442 446924

92 Auraiya 410430 467410 532299 606198 690355

93 Ramabai Nagar 289513 329705 375478 427605 486968

94 Ramabai Nagar 253004 288128 328128 373681 425559

95 Kanpur Nagar 148927 169602 193147 219962 250499

96 Kanpur Nagar 194595 221611 252377 287414 327315

97 Kanpur Nagar 975564 1111000 1265238 1440889 1640926

98 Hamirpur 118394 134831 153549 174866 199143

99 Hamirpur 123360 140485 159989 182200 207494

100 Hamirpur 167766 191057 217581 247788 282187

101 Jalaun 182844 208228 237135 270057 307548

102 Jalaun 129166 147098 167520 190776 217261

103 Jalaun 240728 274148 312208 355551 404912

104 Jhansi 282950 322232 366967 417912 475930

105 Jhansi 132849 151292 172296 196216 223456

106 Jhansi 252092 287090 326946 372335 424026

107 Lalitpur 186426 212307 241782 275348 313574

108 Lalitpur 260056 296160 337275 384098 437422

109 Mahoba 198786 226383 257811 293603 334363

110 Mahoba 140621 160143 182376 207694 236528

111 Banda 415195 472835 538478 613234 698369




April 2014


P a g e | 3-11


2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

112 Banda 221702 252480 287532 327449 372908

113 Chitrakoot 360286 410303 467265 532135 606010

114 Fatehpur 261613 297932 339293 386397 440040

115 Fatehpur 652013 742531 845615 963010 1096704

116 Raibareily 357344 406953 463450 527790 601062

117 Raibareily 142022 161738 184192 209763 238884

118 Raibareily 253418 288599 328665 374293 426256

119 Raibareily 329167 374864 426906 486173 553667

120 Unnao 279239 318005 362153 412430 469687

121 Unnao 451289 513941 585291 666546 759081

122 Unnao 248702 283229 322549 367328 418324

123 Lucknow 184455 210062 239225 272436 310258

124 Lucknow 797950 908728 1034885 1178557 1342174

125 Lucknow 152766 173974 198127 225632 256957

126 Barabanki 573262 652847 743481 846697 964242

127 Barabanki 462098 526251 599309 682510 777262

128 Gonda 314532 358198 407926 464558 529052

129 Gonda 242202 275827 314119 357728 407391

130 Gonda 435984 496510 565440 643939 733336

131 Bahraich 384521 437903 498696 567930 646774

132 Bahraich 390399 444598 506320 576612 656662

133 Bahraich 236919 269810 307267 349924 398504

134 Shrawasti 242256 275888 314189 357807 407481

135 Shrawasti 149001 169686 193243 220071 250623

136 Balrampur 221983 252800 287896 327864 373381

137 Balrampur 532850 606825 691069 787009 896268

138 Siddhart Nagar 266784 303821 346000 394035 448738

139 Siddhart Nagar 283221 322540 367318 418312 476385

140 Siddhart Nagar 254870 290254 330549 376439 428699

141 Basti 299800 341421 388820 442799 504272

142 Basti 297751 339087 386162 439772 500825

143 Basti 175170 199489 227183 258723 294641

144 Sant Kabir Nagar 213251 242857 276572 314968 358694

145 Sant Kabir Nagar 149519 170276 193915 220836 251494

146 Sant Kabir Nagar 154227 175638 200021 227790 259414

147 Maharjganj 600853 684269 779265 887449 1010652

148 Maharjganj 298225 339627 386777 440473 501623

149 Gorakhpur 344256 392048 446476 508459 579048

150 Gorakhpur 359052 408899 465665 530313 603935

151 Gorakhpur 497872 566990 645705 735347 837434

152 Kushinagar 338400 385380 438882 499811 569199

153 Kushinagar 355166 404473 460625 524573 597399

154 Kushinagar 352278 401184 456880 520308 592541

155 Deoria 146109 166394 189494 215801 245760

156 Deoria 282606 321839 366520 417403 475350

157 Deoria 390194 444364 506055 576309 656317

158 Ballia 222537 253431 288615 328683 374313

159 Ballia 281647 320747 365276 415987 473738

160 Ballia 335615 382208 435269 495697 564514

161 Mau 228871 260645 296830 338038 384967

162 Mau 125532 142959 162806 185408 211148

163 Mau 279224 317988 362134 412408 469662

164 Ghazipur 430626 490409 558492 636027 724325

165 Ghazipur 230142 262092 298478 339915 387104

166 Ghazipur 347191 395391 450283 512795 583985

167 Azamgarh 214022 243734 277571 316106 359991

168 Azamgarh 637914 726475 827330 942187 1072989

169 Azamgarh 416419 474229 540066 615042 700428

170 Ambedkar Nagar 239567 272825 310701 353835 402958




April 2014


P a g e | 3-12


2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

171 Ambedkar Nagar 459185 522933 595531 678207 772362

172 Faizabad 443835 505451 575622 655535 746542

173 Faizabad 230304 262277 298689 340155 387378

174 Faizabad 196613 223909 254994 290394 330709

175 Sultanpur 270024 307511 350202 398820 454188

176 Sultanpur 238065 271115 308753 351617 400431

177 Sultanpur 336094 382753 435890 496404 565319

178 Sultanpur 260967 297196 338455 385443 438953

179 Jaunpur 305850 348311 396666 451735 514448

180 Jaunpur 454299 517368 589194 670991 764143

181 Jaunpur 312125 355457 404804 461003 525003

182 Jaunpur 212649 242170 275790 314078 357681

183 Pratapgarh 262673 299139 340668 387963 441823

184 Pratapgarh 310657 353785 402900 458834 522533

185 Pratapgarh 193322 220160 250725 285532 325172

186 Pratapgarh 201428 229391 261237 297505 338807

187 Kaushambi 165421 188386 214539 244323 278242

188 Kaushambi 199679 227400 258970 294922 335866

189 Kaushambi 170569 194248 221216 251927 286901

190 Allahabad 287713 327656 373144 424947 483942

191 Allahabad 295214 336198 382871 436025 496557

192 Allahabad 305685 348123 396452 451491 514171

193 Allahabad 271246 308903 351787 400625 456243

194 Allahabad 281633 320732 365258 415967 473714

195 Allahabad 325294 370455 421884 480454 547154

196 Mirzapur 306810 349404 397911 453152 516063

197 Mirzapur 202034 230082 262024 298401 339827

198 Mirzapur 228800 260564 296738 337933 384848



201 Varanasi 821059 935046 1064856 1212689 1381044

202 Varanasi 217072 247207 281527 320611 365120

203 Chandauli 134984 153724 175065 199369 227048

204 Chandauli 228168 259844 295918 337000 383785

205 Chandauli 202569 230692 262718 299191 340727

206 Sonabhadra 202129 230191 262148 298541 339987

207 Sonabhadra 383554 436803 497443 566503 645149

Total 56584340 64439853 73385933 83573984 95176425

3.2. DEMAND FORECAST

Trip end forecasts for the horizon year (2031) have been carried out at inter and intra-

regional level. The calibrated trip end equations for the daily person trips made within the

study area in the base year were applied on the projected planning variables for the horizon

years (2031) to get the future trip ends of internal-internal trips.

To forecast interregional travel demand, an economic perspective of the region has been

assessed considering traffic influencing regions and taking into account their growth in the

past and future. Alternatives such as Business as Usual (BAU’s), optimistic scenario and

realistic scenario assuming implementation of state growth vision policies and programmes

has been developed. Interregional transport demand is estimated based on past time series

vehicle registration data and NSDP. Taking into account the scenarios described above

elasticity values have been derived for inter-regional forecast.




April 2014


P a g e | 3-13

3.2.1. Trip End Forecast

3.2.1.1. Intrazonal Trips

The planning parameters (Population & Employment) were forecast using the growth rates

as explained earlier. Trip ends were projected from base year trip end model for different

horizon years (2016, 2021, 2026, and 2031). The summary of intrazonal traffic forecast for

different horizon years is presented in Table 3.9.

Table 3.9 INTRAZONAL TRAFFIC FORECAST SUMMARY

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Passenger (Tips) 5777117 6100867 6786335 7540871 8371433

Goods (Tonnage) 787459 820054 940495 1077657 1233860

3.2.1.2. Inter-Regional Trips

Inter-regional forecast in this study is based on the elasticity approach. The premise of this

approach is that vehicular growth rates are influenced by the area economies of the traffic

originating and destining states/regions. Under this methodology, a quantitative relationship

is established between time series vehicle registration data and socio-economic indicators

such as NSDP. This is done by fitting log-log regression equations with vehicle registration

data as the dependant variable and socio-economic indicators as the independent variable.

Using the vehicular growth rates, projections of vehicular traffic is carried over the analysis

period. Based on vehicular traffic the total daily trips & tonnage carried, vehicle wise

projections have been made using the average occupancy and load carried respectively.

3.2.1.3. Transport Demand Elasticity

In order to determine the elasticity of transport demand for the present study a quantitative

relationship has been developed between time series mode wise registered motor vehicles

and NSDP by fitting a log-log regression equation. For this purpose the mode wise vehicle

registration data and NSDP data was collected from the year 2004-05 to 2010-11 as shown

in Table 3.10.

Table 3.10 MODE-WISE VEHICLE REGISTRATION & NSDP

Year 2W CAR BUS TRUCKS NSDP

2004-05 5652044 633855 25081 140398 229074

2005-06 6083655 757019 26549 151376 241914

2006-07 7135712 767031 25423 157637 261479

2007-08 6910640 791648 23277 168733 278758

2008-09 8521198 944825 26331 190620 295814

2009-10 9493677 1071008 28124 217131 316906

2010-11 10563850 1208699 31922 251410 339501

A log-log equation was fitted between NSDP and different modes. The results of regression

plots and fits are shown below in Figure 3.1 (a to c).




April 2014


P a g e | 3-14

Figure 3.1 (a to c) REGRESSION PLOTS – MODE WISE VEHICLES ON NSDP

Based on the above regression fits the elasticity coefficients for various vehicular modes

are summarised in Table 3.11.

y = 1.5578x - 3.6887 R² = 0.9408

15.50

15.60

15.70

15.80

15.90

16.00

16.10

12.30 12.40 12.50 12.60 12.70

No

. of

2W

NSDP

Fig 4.1 a: LINE FIT PLOT - 2W & NSDP

2W

Linear (2W)

y = 1.4355x - 4.3349 R² = 0.9116

13.30

13.40

13.50

13.60

13.70

13.80

13.90

14.00

12.30 12.40 12.50 12.60 12.70

No

. of

Car

s

NSDP

Fig 4.1 b: LINE FIT PLOT - CAR & NSDP

CAR

y = 1.5102x - 8.7643 R² = 0.9812

9.8

9.9

10

10.1

10.2

10.3

10.4

12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7

No

. of

Bu

ses

NSDP

Fig 4.1 c: LINE FIT PLOT - BUS & NSDP




April 2014


P a g e | 3-15

Table 3.11 ELASTICITY COEFFICIENTS

Elasticity Value

2W CAR BUS TRUCKS

1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3

Elasticity values thus obtained are thereafter, projected over the entire study horizon

duration. Values in the initial period are related to past values as obtained and are projected

to decline on the premise that transport demand elasticity(s) for both freight and passenger

traffic tend to go down over time and approach unity and sometimes even below that as

regional imbalances are corrected and regions become self-sufficient. The adopted mode-

wise elasticity coefficients based on the above mentioned premise over a twenty year

perspective is shown in Table 3.12.

Table 3.12 MODEWISE ELASTICITY VALUES

Year

Elasticity Coefficients

2W Car Bus Trucks

2011-2016 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3

2016-2021 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2

2021-2026 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1

2026-2031 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0

3.2.1.4. Economic Growth Scenarios

3 scenarios of economic growth have been developed and evaluated based on Business-

as-Usual (BAU), Optimistic and Realistic Scenario respectively.

a. Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario

In the BAU scenario the NSDP has been assumed to follow a ‘do- nothing’ approach based

on the past trends in economic growth resulting in a growth rate of 7% in first ten years

followed by 6% in next ten years respectively. The economic growth rates and the

consequent mode wise transport demand growth based on respective elasticity values in

this scenario is compiled in Table 3.13.

Table 3.13 ADOPTED MODEWISE GROWTH RATES FOR BAU SCENARIO

Year NSDP 2W Car Bus Truck

2011-2016 7% 11.2% 9.8% 10.50% 9.1%

2016-2021 7% 9.8% 9.1% 9.8% 8.4%

2021-2025 6% 7.2% 7.2% 7.8% 6.6%

2026-2031 6% 6.6% 6.6% 7.2% 6.0%

b. Optimistic Scenario

In optimistic scenario it is assumed that all traffic zones experience a strong positive impact

on economic growth. The state Government’s likely achievement in the Eleventh Plan

(2007-12) is expected to be 8.1 %. The Draft Twelfth Plan (2012-17) recently finalised has

projected a growth rate of 9 %. It is also observed that the State’s Growth Rate has lagged

behind country’s growth India by about two (2) point percentages. Considering these factors

the state economic growth rate is assumed to be 9% for first ten years and then decline to

8% in subsequent decade. The economic growth rates and the consequent mode wise

transport demand growth based on respective elasticity values in this scenario are compiled

in Table 3.14.

Table 3.14 ADOPTED MODEWISE GROWTH RATES FOR OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO


2011-2016 9% 14.4% 12.6% 13.5% 11.7%

2016-2021 9% 12.6% 11.7% 12.6% 10.8%

2021-2025 8% 9.6% 9.6% 10.4% 8.8%

2026-2031 8% 8.8% 8.8% 9.6% 8.0%




April 2014


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c. Realistic Scenario

In realistic scenario, it is assumed that due to the current economic slowdown in the country

there might be a slowdown in the economic growth of the state too resulting in growth of

NSDP to touch 8% in first five years and decreasing to 7% and 6% respectively over the

next 15 years. The growth rates of NSDP and mode wise expected transport demand

growth rates are given in Table 3.15.

Table 3.15 ADOPTED GROWTH RATES FOR REALISTIC SCENARIO


2011-2016 7.5% 12.0% 10.5% 11.3% 9.8%

2016-2021 7% 9.8% 9.1% 9.8% 8.4%

2021-2025 6.5% 7.8% 7.8% 8.5% 7.2%

2026-2031 6% 6.6% 6.6% 7.2% 6.0%

The mode wise inter-regional forecast trips/tonnage is summarised in Table 3.16 below.

The realistic scenario has been adopted for forecast on interzonal traffic which includes

external trips from UP to Outside and vice-versa.

Table 3.16 MODE WISE INTER-REGIONAL TRAFFIC FORECAST SUMMARY

WITH DIFFERENT SCENARIOS

Year 2W Car Bus Total Pass

Trips

Commercial Vehicle

Tonnage

BAU

2011 47490 208518 591998 848006 619778

2016 80748 332779 975285 1388811 957988

2021 128867 514375 1556478 2199720 1433859

2026 182438 728205 2265880 3176523 1973752

2031 251131 1002397 3207826 4461354 2641326

Optimistic

2011 47490 208518 591998 848006 619778

2016 93054 377430 1115063 1585547 1077711

2021 168433 656299 2018326 2843058 1799704

2026 266367 1037898 3310066 4614331 2743757

2031 406092 1582338 5234671 7223101 4031479

Realistic

2011 47490 208518 591998 848006 619778

2016 83694 343523 1008835 1436052 986868

2021 133569 530981 1610022 2274573 1477085

2026 194447 772989 2415347 3382783 2086250

2031 267662 1064043 3419428 4751133 2791873

3.2.2. Traffic Forecast Summary

The summary of total traffic (passenger and goods) forecast for both intrazonal and

interzonal movement is presented in Table 3.17 & 3.18.

Table 3.17 TRAFFIC FORECAST SUMMARY

Movement Type

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Passenger Trips

Intrazonal 5777117 6100867 6786335 7540871 8371433

Interzonal 848006 1436052 2274573 3382783 4751133

Total 6625123 7536919 9060908 10923654 13122566

Goods Tonnage

Intrazonal 787459 820054 940495 1077657 1233860

Interzonal 619778 986868 1477085 2086250 2791873

Total 1407237 1806922 2417580 3163907 4025733




April 2014


P a g e | 3-17

Table 3.18 MODE WISE TRAFFIC FORECAST SUMMARY

Mode 2016 2021 2026 2031

Passenger Trips

Car 2431829 2855681 3357900 3935384

2W 1774172 2014290 2284579 2588306

Bus 3330917 4190937 5281175 6598876

Total 7536919 9060908 10923654 13122567

Mode 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tonnage

LCV 71877 89351 110247 134276

2 Axle 567560 742867 956099 1202106

3 Axle 907204 1217481 1596878 2035031

MAV 260282 367881 500683 654320

Total 1806922 2417580 3163907 4025733

3.2.3. Trip Distribution

Distribution of horizon year passenger trip ends has been based on the calibrated base

year distribution model parameters, horizon year network characteristics and the estimated

horizon year intrazonal trip ends resulting in horizon year trip matrices. The horizon year

modal split has been assumed to be same as observed in the base year.

3.2.4. Traffic Assignment

The estimated horizon year trip matrices for various horizon year period (2016, 2021, 2026,

2031) obtained from trip distribution have been assigned to respective horizon year

networks in various phases using the base year calibrated trip assignment model to arrive

at the estimated link loadings in the horizon year. The assignment results are graphically

shown from Figures 3.2 (a) to (f).

The speed and lane specifications to be used in travel demand forecasting and assignment

as adopted for different types and road categories of the horizon year network is tabulated

below:

Road Type Functional

Class Category

Capacity (PCU/Day)

Speed (kmph)

ODR 4 Single lane

Intermediate lane 2 lane

2000 6000

15000

39 41 42

MDR 3 1 lane 2 lane

2000 15000

41 49

SH 2

Single lane Intermediate lane

2 lane 4 lane

2000 6000

15000 40000

41 47 49 54

NH 1

Intermediate lane 2 lane 4 lane 6 lane

6000 15000 40000

42 48 57 80

Expressways 6-9 6 lane 90000 80

From the assignment results it can be observed that the major corridors where the traffic

concentration is high are NH-2, NH-24, NH-91, NH-25, NH-56, NH-28, NH-76, NH-119, NH-

58, NH-93, SH-59, SH-76, SH-12, SH-30, SH-33, SH-8, SH-5A, SH-26, SH-29, SH-1, SH-

100.

Traffic movement is higher in the areas closer to NCR region. National Highways and State

Highways account for about 80% of total regional traffic movement in UP State. Corridors

having proximity to industrial and tourist zones carry major traffic. The major traffic




April 2014


P a g e | 3-18

generating zones that are found to be having significant interaction in terms of passenger

and good movement are Lucknow, Kanpur, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Agra,

Allahabad, Mathura, Sultanpur, Etah, Bareily, Moradabad, Faizabad, Varanasi, Barabanki,

Bulandshahar, Gorakhpur, Rampur, Hapur, Fatehpur, Raibareily, Muzzafarnagar, Mahoba,

Basti. With the perspective of demand and connectivity to important economic growth

centers, these corridors will form major part of primary strategic core network. Some of the

important MDR and ODR links have also been identified that carries high traffic and will

serve as a part of core network linking the major primary network.

Transport demand observed on these major travel corridors will be one of the variables to

be used to identify Strategic Core Network forming a grid pattern with inter-connectivity.

This network will further strengthened / expanded based on other criteria’s like linkages to

existing/potential economic growth centres, settlement indices of zones, accessibility etc.




April 2014


P a g e | 3-19

Fig 3.2 a




April 2014


P a g e | 3-20

Fig 3.2 b




April 2014


P a g e | 3-21

Fig 3.2 c




April 2014


P a g e | 3-22

Fig 3.2 d




April 2014


P a g e | 3-23

HORIZON YEAR ASSIGNMENT – 2031 (COMBINED PCU)

Fig 3.2 e




April 2014


P a g e | 3-24

Fig 3.2 f




April 2014


P a g e | 3-25

3.3. HORIZON YEAR ROAD NETWORK

3.3.1. Planned Projects

The base year network was prepared on GIS platform comprising of NH, SH, MDR and

ODR. The details of the base year network have already been discussed in previous report

on Travel Demand Model. For future road network development across horizon years 2016,

2021, 2026 and 2031, major road development plans and proposals were collected from

secondary sources and were added to the base year network to develop the inputs for

horizon year network. The details of the proposed projects in horizon year by various

agencies for the state along with the expected year of implementation obtained from

various secondary sources are tabulated below and presented in Table 3.19 & Figures 3.3

(a to d).

Table 3.19 DETAILS OF PROPOSED MAJOR ROAD PROPOSALS PROJECTS IN UTTAR

PRADESH

Type of Road Corridor Source

Category & Lane

Configuration

Expected Implementation

Golden Quadrilateral

East-West Corridor NHAI NH, 6 lane 2016

Ghaziabad Meerut Expressway

Ghaziabad-Meerut NCR EX, 6 lane 2016

Yamuna Expressway

Gautam Buddha Nagar- Agra

Operational EX, 6 lane 2016

Indo Nepal Border Road

Greater Noida-Balia UPSHA SH, 2 lane 2021

Agra Kanpur Expressway

Agra Kanpur UPEIDA EX, 6 lane 2021

Delhi - Muzaffarnagar EXpressway

Delhi-Muzaffarnagar- Haridwar

Proposed National

Expressway –

Expressway Master Plan

(MoRTH)

EX, 6 lane 2021

Haridwar - Allahabad

Expressway

Haridwar-Najibabad- Amroha-Rampur Bareilly-Kheeri Bahraich-Gonda-

Faizabad-Sultanpur- Allahabad upto Rewa

EX, 6 lane 2026

Gwalior - Bahraich EXpressway

Gwalior-Etawah-Kannauj- Sitapur-Bahraich

EX, 6 lane 2026

Allahabad - Robertsganj Expressway

Allahabad-Mirzapur- Robertsganj up to UP

Border EX, 6 lane 2026

Panipat –Amroha Expressway

Panipat-Muzaffarnagar- Bijnor-Amroha Expressway

proposed by State

(Source – Expressway Master Plan,

MoRTH)

EX, 6 lane 2026

Mathura –Bareilly Expressway

Mathura-Bareilly EX, 6 lane 2026

Orai – Kheeri Expressway

Orai-Kannauj-Kheeri EX, 6 lane 2026

Allahabad EXpressway

Bareilly-Kheeri-Bahraich Gonda-Azamgarh-

Allahabad EX, 6 lane 2026

Ganga Expressway Ganga Expressway EX, 6 lane 2026

Mahoba – Gonda Expressway

Mahoba-Fatehpur- Raibareilly-Gonda

Expressway proposed by

State (Source –

Expressway Master Plan,

MoRTH)

EX, 6 lane 2031

Ghazipur –Maharajganj Expressway

Ghazipur-Gorakhpur- Maharajganj

EX, 6 lane 2031

Chandauli – Buxar Expressway

Chandauli -Ghazipur-Buxar EX, 6 lane 2031




April 2014


P a g e | 3-26

3.4. CONCLUSIONS

i. The demand for road transport has been increasing rapidly in the state. The number of

annually registered vehicles in the state has increased at an average annual rate of

about 10% between 2001 & 2011. It is observed that two wheelers account for

maximum share of about 80% of total vehicles with cars of around 8% while that of

buses is very minimal at 0.25%. The share of goods vehicles is around 11%. The

growth rate of cars in UP is double that of India in recent years. The growth rate of bus

population is a dismal 1.0 per cent in UP compared to 13.0 per cent average for India.

Similarly, the growth rate of trucks in UP is (3.3 per cent) just about half of the all-India

average of 6.9 per cent. It is has also been observed that vehicle ownership rates in UP

are far below the all-India average. They are about 10-50 per cent of the all-India

average.

ii. Forecasting of planning variables viz. population and employment has been done using

growth rate and trend extrapolation based methods. Based on these methods, it has

been observed that the exponential plot is the best fit plot for both population and

workers projection as the difference between observed and estimated 2011 value is

less and hence exponential equations has been used to project the state population

and workers. Based on the forecast the population figures are expected to be 2127

lakhs by 2016, 2341 lakh by 2021, 2577 lakh by 2026 and 2837 lakhs by 2031.

Similarly, workers estimates are expected to be 644 lakh by 2016, 733 lakh by 2021,

836 lakh by 2026 and 952 lakhs by 2031.

iii. For travel demand forecast, an economic perspective of the region has been assessed

considering traffic influencing regions and taking into account their growth in the past

and future. Uttar Pradesh is expected to focus on overall growth covering industrial and

infrastructure development related to power, transport networks and connectivity, and

increased employment opportunities. The vehicular growth rates estimated for different

scenarios have been adopted to obtain mode wise traffic demand for different horizon

years. These will form important inputs to traffic estimation using the transport demand

model developed for this study.

iv. Summarising the transport demand in coming years, it has been estimated that

passenger demand per day will increase from 66.25 lakh passengers in year 2011 to

131.22 lakh passengers by horizon year 2031. Similarly, freight tonnes carried by

commercial vehicles per day will increase to 40.25 lakh tonnes by year 2031 from 14.07

lakh tonnes in year 2011. Cars will carry about 40 lakh passenger trips and buses will

carry almost 66 lakh passenger trips in horizon year. Similarly, 2-axle and 3-axle goods

vehicles will carry 30 lakh tonnes in year 2031. About 6.5 lakh tonnes are expected to

be carried by multi-axel commercial goods vehicles in the horizon year.




April 2014


P a g e | 3-27

Fig 3.3 a: HORIZON YEAR NETWORK - 2016




April 2014


P a g e | 3-28

Fig 3.3 b: HORIZON YEAR NETWORK - 2021




April 2014


P a g e | 3-29

Fig 3.3 c: HORIZON YEAR NETWORK - 2026




April 2014


P a g e | 3-30

Fig 3.3 d: HORIZON YEAR NETWORK - 2031




April 2014


P a g e | 4-1

IDENTIFICATION OF STRATEGIC CORE ROAD

NETWORK

4. IDENTIFICATION OF STRATEGIC CORE ROAD NETWORK

4.1. EXTRACTS FROM SETTLEMENT POTENTIAL ANALYSIS

Settlement potential analysis provides a composite index that has been used to identify the

high traffic volume generating settlements, growth potential of the settlements. The

parameters considered in settlement growth potential analysis comprised of population size

of settlement, transport and infrastructure facilities, economic growth centres, tourism

potential etc.

The screening of the network has been done by establishing cut-off points through analysed

DPI and other attributes to sieve out certain number of settlements and few links. The

screening parameters are from the ambit of socio-economic perspectives and parameters

have been studied viz. growth of population, workers, tourism and industrial centres. The

network links shall be ranked using an aggregate score function on their attribute values.

The finalised and resultant network will be based on the following attributes:

- Traffic

- Economic & Demand Drivers

- Connectivity & Network Availability

- Environment

- Social

This chapter presents summary of settlement potential analysis.

4.2. SUMMARY OF SETTLEMENT POTENTIAL ANALYSIS

The main aim of the settlement analysis carried out was to assess the performance and

growth potential for groups of settlements within the State of UP. The settlement hierarchy

is important in the development framework in order to set out a clear order of preference for

the location of development in both the short and long term. This was carried out at district

level for urban and rural blocks. Four techniques were chosen as the most relevant

techniques for base year settlement analysis in order to identify potential links and nodes in

master plan preparation. The methods adopted for settlement analysis were:

- Location Quotient (LQ) Analysis

- Disparity Index

- Cumulative Function Index (CFI)

- Development Potential Index (DPI)

The analysis of settlements was carried out both at aggregate (district level) and

disaggregate (block level) level and thus formed the basis to identify distinct and important

nodes in the State for network connectivity based on the growth potential of settlements,

traffic potential, road connectivity deficiencies as identified in the policy documents and the

desired connectivity levels, strategic importance of a various nodes and other associated

factors such as network continuity and its hierarchy in the regional network system. The

methodology adopted is shown in flow chart as Figure 4.1.




April 2014


P a g e | 4-2

Figure 4.1 METHODOLOGY ADOPTED FOR SETTLEMENT ANALYSIS

From LQ analysis potential industrial nodes were identified in rural and urban blocks in

various Regions / Zones in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Industrial zones having dominance

and potential for future development identified are Jhansi, Agra, Kanpur, Varanasi,

Azamgarh, Bareily, Allahabad, Faizabad, Meerut & Gorakhpur. It is expected that these

regions will be major traffic attracting / generating nodes in near future and will be pivotal for

road network development in view of growth and potential.

CFI and DPI provided and insight in terms of availability of facilities and socio-economic

developments at settlements. The analysis revealed that major districts with high DPI

values are Lucknow, Ghaziabad, Kanpur Nagar, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Agra, Meerut,

Allahabad, Muzzaffarnagar, Gorakhpur, Bulandshahar & Bareily. These districts have

strong industrial base and tourism attractions. The socio-economic facilities in these

districts are adequate and therefore, will continue to grow in near future. In rural blocks

districts having higher DPI value are Ghaziabad, Ghazipur, Raibareily, Muzzaffarnagar,

Bulandshahar, Pratapgarh, Gonda, Bijnaur, Mathura, Kheeri, Allahabad, Meerut, Jaunpur &

Saharanpur. These districts have better transport linkages and adequate social

infrastructure.

Division of districts into

Rural/Urban centres

Field visits and secondary

data collection

Data Compilation

Demographic

& Socio-

economic

Transport Agriculture Social Infra Telegraph &

Telecom

Other

facilities

Data Analysis

Location

Quotient

Disparity

Index

Cumulative

Function Index

Development

Potential Index

Ranking of Settlements

Development of relation

between settlement

indicators and transport

network




April 2014


P a g e | 4-3

Amongst above methods employed for the study Weighted Index method (commonly known

as Development Potential Index) was analysed in detail in the earlier submissions and

reports were formally approved by PWD after detailed presentations / deliberations /

discussions

The salient excerpts of the settlement analysis is reproduced here as a ready reference for

undertaking the screening of core network, of which, DPI and settlement hierarchy is an

important component apart from traffic demand and other economic demand drivers.

4.2.1. Weighted Index Method (Development Potential Index, DPI)

Weighted Index Method (commonly known as Development Potential Index DPI) was

employed to obtain an indication of hierarchy by assigning weights to all settlements. A

scoring system has been applied to each of the district based on the number of key

services and facilities within them and in turn ranking has been done. An indication of inter-

district comparison in terms of availability of facilities and development can be made. The

methodology adopted to calculated weighted index is as follows:

- Prepare a data matrix for all rural/urban settlements in each district

- Total each row and column to compile data at district level

- Using the assumption that the total number of functional attributes in the entire system

has a combined centrality value of 100, determine the weight of the functional attribute

using following method:

- For weights of each parameter group (sectors), the relative contribution of various

sectors in overall CFI is calculated. Weights within each sector have been assigned

based on the importance of various facilities in urban and rural context. Based on

weights and actual values observed, a score have been calculated for each group and

finally total development rating is calculated for each settlement by applying the

following formula:

Development Potential Index = N/n

Where;

N is the ‘Combined Centrality Value’ of 100

& (n) is the ‘Total number of attributes’

The assigned weightings for different attributes in various sectors both for District and Block

level is summarised in Table 4.1.




April 2014


P a g e | 4-4

Table 4.1 WEIGHTINGS FOR VARIOUS ATTRIBUTES

Amenity Assigned Weights (%)

Rural Urban

Transport 20 20

No. of Railway Station 10

Bus Station 10 20

Agriculture 15 15

No. of regulated Mandi’s 15 15

Industry 15 -

No. of heavy industries 5 -

No. of small scale industries 10 -

Social Infrastructure 25 25

No. of Hospitals 10 7.5

No. of Schools 10 7.5

No. of Colleges 2.5 5

No. of Technical Institution 2.5 5

Telegraph & Telecommunication Facilities 20 25

Post Office 7.5 5

Telegraph 7.5 5

No. of PCO’s 2.5 7.5

Telephone Facilities 2.5 7.5

Other Facilities 5 15

No. of Banks 5 5

Commercial Shops - 5

Agricultural Shops - 5

Based on the weights mentioned above, Development Potential Index (DPI) value has been

calculated for all 71 districts of Uttar Pradesh. The computation of DPI of various Districts is

presented in Table 4.2 (a & b). The districts have been ranked on the basis of DPI values

i.e. district with highest DPI value is ranked as 1 and so on. This exercise has been done

separately for rural and urban areas of all the districts. The district wise DPI calculations

with ranking of development blocks and urban areas have been submitted in previous

submissions.




April 2014


P a g e | 4-5

Table 4.2 (a): DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL INDEX (RURAL)

District

Transport Agriculture Industry Social Infrastructure Telegraph & Telecommunication

Facilities

Other Facilit

ies Development Potential

Index (DPI) N

o.

of

railw

a

y

sta

tio

n

No.

of

bus

sta

tio

n

/ halt

No.

of

regula

ted

ma

ndi'

s

No.

of

regis

te

red

Indust

rie

s

No.

of

sm

all

scale

industr

ies

No.

of

hospit

als

No.

of

school

s

No.

of

colle

g

es

No.

of

Te

chni

cal

institu

t

ion

Post

Off

ice

Te

legr

aph

No.

of

PC

O's

Te

lep

hone

Fa

cili

ties

No.

of

Banks

Auraiyya 0.40 10.00 0.15 0.45 12.10 4.80 210.20 0.78 0.00 10.73 0.00 12.68 47.58 2.10 22.28

Azamgarh 0.80 14.40 0.30 16.30 31.80 18.80 443.30 2.13 0.00 28.80 0.08 40.53 393.23 7.60 71.29

Bagpat 1.00 10.20 0.00 2.70 41.90 4.50 123.40 7.40 0.05 9.83 0.00 7.63 105.33 1.90 22.56

Balia 1.30 9.20 1.20 24.20 48.40 21.80 318.40 0.78 0.00 25.13 0.00 35.70 305.25 8.90 57.16

Banda 0.50 13.80 0.15 0.00 128.80 9.70 194.10 0.08 0.00 14.63 0.23 2.98 200.63 3.00 40.61

Bulandshahar 1.30 25.60 1.05 230.95 432.50 36.80 352.20 0.28 0.00 22.13 0.00 31.63 841.20 3.70 141.38

Chandauli 1.10 19.40 0.00 179.20 354.30 6.30 182.90 1.53 0.00 12.53 0.30 22.18 96.33 3.00 62.79

Chitrakoot 1.00 4.40 0.00 0.00 73.20 5.30 109.80 28.78 0.00 5.55 0.45 5.00 55.70 1.65 20.77

Deoria 1.30 13.90 0.15 23.40 45.80 14.40 291.80 0.80 0.00 19.35 0.00 20.48 89.30 3.85 37.47

Etah 0.80 10.70 0.15 0.00 197.40 5.30 268.50 0.65 4.45 0.00 64.43 318.03 0.85 1.70 62.35

Etawah 0.50 7.10 0.60 0.70 197.80 7.00 239.00 1.90 0.05 9.30 0.00 7.13 304.50 2.95 55.61

Farukkabad 1.50 8.80 0.15 0.75 172.10 5.90 251.50 0.90 0.00 8.85 0.00 33.33 547.08 2.15 73.79

Fatehpur 1.10 23.00 0.75 213.90 422.90 10.70 379.10 0.30 0.03 17.93 0.00 9.30 162.73 4.90 89.04

Firozabad 0.90 4.80 0.15 0.85 171.60 8.00 174.20 0.80 0.00 9.75 0.00 1.95 112.38 2.25 34.83

GB Nagar 0.60 13.10 0.00 41.85 73.10 3.60 112.40 8.40 0.00 5.40 0.08 28.40 657.13 2.30 67.60

Ghaziabad 1.00 8.80 1.35 49.25 485.50 9.90 230.50 0.08 0.00 10.58 0.60 173.03 3983.78 2.95 354.09

Ghazipur 2.80 58.40 0.00 987.15 1901.80 13.90 449.10 2.28 0.00 26.70 0.53 14.33 391.15 7.30 275.39

Gorakhpur 1.40 8.50 0.00 20.05 11.50 14.50 381.90 1.25 0.00 25.20 0.00 17.83 188.40 7.30 48.42

Hamirpur 0.60 15.90 0.30 0.10 224.40 7.30 143.90 2.83 0.00 9.68 0.00 5.78 101.13 1.70 36.69

Hardoi 1.80 6.70 0.15 17.95 9.60 15.40 380.20 2.83 0.00 22.73 0.00 45.15 367.80 4.40 62.48

Hathras 0.80 6.40 0.45 0.00 34.00 5.80 178.80 0.30 0.00 10.28 0.23 16.93 184.20 1.95 31.44

Jalaun 0.40 15.10 0.15 0.00 300.70 8.70 227.90 0.30 0.00 16.13 0.00 37.60 464.45 2.70 76.72

Jaunpur 3.10 13.20 1.35 87.75 173.10 17.00 336.40 0.53 0.00 30.30 0.00 68.20 839.38 8.10 112.74

Jhansi 1.20 9.60 0.45 1.35 109.60 7.10 198.30 1.63 0.00 13.13 0.00 15.65 108.58 2.25 33.49

JP Nagar 0.80 5.30 0.60 2.30 15.60 5.20 259.30 0.43 0.03 8.70 0.23 0.20 44.75 2.35 24.70

Kannauj 0.50 7.20 0.45 0.70 292.70 5.70 185.70 1.08 0.00 9.60 0.00 26.65 368.08 1.75 64.29

Kanpur Nagar 2.00 1.50 0.60 23.85 47.50 7.90 264.30 0.90 0.13 13.73 0.00 11.28 291.53 5.20 47.89

Kanshiram Nagar 0.70 9.30 0.00 95.65 191.20 4.30 179.10 0.10 0.00 7.95 0.00 16.68 237.68 1.00 53.12

Kheeri 2.00 17.80 1.80 388.75 769.80 11.70 408.10 0.30 0.00 27.75 0.00 3.33 125.90 5.45 125.91

Kushinagar 1.40 8.60 0.30 0.15 244.10 13.20 264.20 0.18 0.00 15.30 0.00 26.23 150.65 4.25 52.04

Lalitpur 0.80 18.90 0.15 63.60 127.20 8.50 159.90 0.03 0.00 10.95 0.00 0.78 65.75 1.85 32.74

Lucknow 1.30 8.10 1.35 10.60 16.30 7.80 224.50 0.08 0.10 10.65 0.00 27.23 180.13 2.45 35.04

Maharajganj 1.20 5.70 0.90 0.15 30.50 8.20 228.10 1.10 0.00 13.95 0.00 38.03 164.43 4.60 35.49

Mahoba 0.60 7.90 0.30 0.00 48.50 3.40 106.70 1.28 0.00 6.30 0.08 4.20 33.68 1.05 15.28

Mainpuri 0.50 7.90 0.60 2.95 451.10 7.50 299.10 0.48 0.00 11.63 0.00 0.00 418.98 1.95 85.91

Mathura 1.10 8.20 0.00 431.10 830.80 6.60 230.60 1.20 0.00 11.78 0.00 5.00 236.58 5.65 126.33




April 2014


P a g e | 4-6

District

Transport Agriculture Industry Social Infrastructure Telegraph & Telecommunication

Facilities

Other Facilit

ies Development Potential

Index (DPI)

No.

of

railw

a

y

sta

tio

n

No.

of

bus

sta

tio

n

/ halt

No.

of

regula

ted

ma

ndi'

s

No.

of

regis

te

red

Indust

rie

s

No.

of

sm

all

scale

industr

ies

No.

of

hospit

als

No.

of

school

s

No.

of

colle

g

es

No.

of

Te

chni

cal

institu

t

ion

Post

Off

ice

Te

legr

aph

No.

of

PC

O's

Te

lep

hone

Fa

cili

ties

No.

of

Banks

Sant Kabir Nagar 0.10 8.30 0.30 0.00 14.40 5.90 159.80 3.70 0.00 12.15 0.00 10.13 43.03 2.60 18.60

Agra 1.70 13.40 1.20 31.55 58.80 10.00 236.40 1.70 0.08 19.50 0.15 5.00 306.70 6.50 49.48

Aligarh 1.00 16.90 0.45 19.00 35.10 8.50 260.20 18.38 0.00 24.45 0.00 13.35 284.13 3.70 48.94

Allahabad 2.90 19.30 1.80 228.40 440.40 15.50 485.60 1.55 0.03 25.05 0.08 44.43 325.58 7.15 114.13

Ambedkar Nagar 0.30 5.70 1.50 171.70 338.90 7.90 281.10 1.15 0.00 25.13 1.05 21.53 150.88 3.10 72.14

Badau 1.60 20.80 1.65 1.00 383.70 8.20 313.20 0.03 0.00 21.38 0.00 2.35 262.10 3.60 72.83

Baharaich 1.60 7.60 0.00 20.00 39.90 11.90 323.00 0.23 0.03 19.80 0.00 16.18 153.85 7.55 42.97

Balrampur 0.80 4.30 1.50 62.90 128.30 8.30 252.90 0.23 0.03 12.53 0.08 2.50 23.95 3.35 35.83

Barabanki 1.90 9.00 0.00 28.40 44.50 12.00 275.90 6.30 0.00 24.23 0.00 27.73 241.78 5.00 48.34

Bareily 1.90 11.00 4.50 12.50 64.20 14.70 326.90 0.70 0.03 16.50 0.00 10.90 80.08 7.25 39.37

Basti 0.60 9.70 1.50 161.60 323.20 8.40 224.30 0.73 0.00 17.55 0.00 7.95 103.28 5.50 61.74

Bijnour 1.40 18.10 1.50 326.60 628.80 9.60 476.30 0.33 0.00 19.80 0.00 15.38 391.78 4.40 135.28

Faizabad 1.70 6.80 0.60 24.25 45.00 11.20 259.60 0.63 0.00 26.25 1.28 47.15 179.33 4.90 43.48

Gonda 2.00 6.20 0.15 342.15 683.60 11.60 345.00 4.13 0.03 24.45 0.00 33.50 444.45 5.95 135.94

Kaushambi 0.70 6.30 0.90 84.25 161.10 4.20 221.70 0.58 0.03 8.85 0.00 5.83 81.25 2.20 41.28

Mau 1.50 9.30 0.60 154.05 308.10 9.70 242.20 1.08 0.00 13.95 0.00 68.60 257.63 2.75 76.39

Meerut 0.50 23.30 0.30 234.05 468.10 6.30 240.30 0.23 4.55 0.00 88.05 505.90 3.13 6.25 112.93

Mirzapur 1.70 7.30 0.00 16.65 33.30 12.40 264.00 0.18 0.00 12.60 0.00 1.35 4.58 4.90 25.64

Moradabad 2.00 17.90 0.90 248.60 495.70 9.00 278.20 0.15 0.08 14.93 0.23 1.15 67.43 6.30 81.61

Muzaffarnagar 0.90 35.50 0.00 74.10 135.60 10.60 308.00 2.20 0.00 21.08 0.00 59.25 1485.08 4.70 152.64

Pilibhit 0.60 8.90 1.05 48.70 82.10 7.50 229.30 1.48 0.00 7.50 0.00 1.13 96.73 2.35 34.81

Pratapgarh 1.00 10.40 1.20 396.70 793.00 71.70 279.60 1.45 0.00 29.85 0.15 96.60 225.55 8.35 136.83

Raibareily 1.90 13.10 1.05 548.25 1085.60 17.70 351.10 0.78 0.00 30.90 0.00 23.25 203.50 6.15 163.09

Ramabai Nagar 1.40 5.60 1.20 81.15 153.70 6.20 260.50 1.75 0.03 13.43 0.90 5.38 147.28 3.35 48.70

Rampur 0.60 9.40 2.10 19.45 37.50 5.20 263.10 1.70 0.00 8.10 0.75 11.95 208.03 4.35 40.87

Saharanpur 1.00 31.60 0.45 47.60 79.40 8.00 187.80 0.40 0.43 13.88 0.90 24.43 891.23 7.55 92.48

Sant Ravidas Ngr 1.10 6.10 0.15 14.35 28.70 4.80 136.50 1.05 0.03 7.13 0.15 18.73 165.35 1.90 27.57

Shahjahanpur 2.00 15.70 1.20 33.45 57.00 10.90 308.70 0.10 0.00 19.65 0.00 5.35 59.50 5.60 37.08

Shrawasti 0.00 2.00 0.00 1.75 3.50 5.90 127.70 0.05 0.00 7.73 0.00 3.43 30.05 2.20 13.16

Siddarth Nagar 0.50 6.30 1.20 254.55 509.10 13.80 263.30 0.33 0.00 16.35 0.00 2.43 123.30 3.90 85.36

Sitapur 2.20 9.10 1.05 97.15 188.50 14.00 475.90 10.70 0.05 28.88 0.00 73.25 253.58 5.75 82.86

Sonabhadra 1.00 9.80 0.00 224.10 446.70 9.70 233.20 0.38 0.00 9.98 0.53 10.88 61.23 2.80 72.16

Sultanpur 2.00 15.40 0.45 30.40 53.30 19.20 352.10 2.40 0.00 35.78 0.00 130.45 470.80 7.45 79.98

Unnao 2.00 8.20 1.05 54.65 59.50 13.10 411.30 1.40 0.03 18.45 0.00 18.73 248.35 3.65 60.03

Varanasi 1.50 16.70 0.15 28.25 44.50 7.00 226.40 0.45 0.00 10.88 0.90 59.03 521.05 3.70 65.75

Average 1.21 12.15 0.67 99.17 241.86 10.75 265.75 2.02 0.14 15.94 2.29 35.44 302.28 4.15 70.99




April 2014


P a g e | 4-7

Table 4.2 (b): DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL INDEX (URBAN)

District

Transport Agriculture Social Infrastructure Telegraph & Telecommunication Facilities Other Facilities

Development Potential

Index (DPI) No.

of

bus

sta

tio

n/

halt

No.

of

regula

t

ed

ma

ndi's

No.

of

hospita

ls

No.

of

schools

No.

of

colle

ge

s

No.

of

Te

chni

cal

institu

tion

Post

Off

ice

Te

legra

ph

No.

of

PC

O's

Te

leph

one

Fa

cili

tie

s

No.

of

Banks

Com

m

erc

ial

Shops

Agricult

ura

l

Shops

Auraiyya 0.20 0.60 1.05 27.38 0.65 0.00 0.65 0.05 10.80 342.75 1.40 2.80 18.15 31.27

Azamgarh 0.40 0.15 1.35 26.70 0.30 0.35 1.10 0.05 80.10 1092.38 3.80 6.30 21.60 94.97

Bagpat 0.00 0.30 1.28 9.98 1.20 0.50 0.60 0.30 4.05 246.38 2.45 4.65 4.35 21.23

Balia 0.40 0.60 1.73 20.40 0.55 0.00 0.90 0.10 84.45 1068.75 2.40 7.15 11.05 92.19

Banda 0.20 0.60 1.73 35.03 0.50 0.15 0.80 0.30 18.38 665.63 2.05 4.00 2.20 56.27

Bulandshahar 0.80 1.50 5.10 55.73 1.90 0.40 1.90 0.20 147.30 2740.50 5.65 14.65 40.00 231.97

Chandauli 0.20 0.30 1.28 8.10 0.20 0.00 0.55 0.25 38.63 352.50 1.95 3.45 3.85 31.63

Chitrakoot 0.00 0.15 0.53 16.20 0.10 0.00 0.15 0.10 17.63 292.13 0.90 1.90 0.20 25.38

Deoria 0.20 0.15 1.95 21.08 1.10 0.00 1.65 0.10 75.00 300.00 2.95 8.40 6.70 32.25

Etah 0.20 0.45 1.65 41.93 1.20 0.70 0.20 27.50 733.50 4.13 3.60 21.65 0.00 64.36

Etawah 0.20 0.45 1.50 64.58 0.95 0.25 0.95 0.20 51.08 1324.20 2.00 4.30 13.00 112.59

Farukkabad 0.20 0.75 4.13 25.20 1.30 0.00 1.65 0.10 64.50 1329.53 2.80 6.30 17.75 111.86

Fatehpur 0.20 1.05 1.95 42.83 0.60 0.05 0.80 0.15 17.63 623.03 3.05 4.75 16.40 54.81

Firozabad 0.20 0.60 0.90 32.25 0.65 0.10 1.30 0.30 52.28 693.45 3.20 10.70 1.80 61.36

Gutam Buddha Nagar 0.60 0.00 1.58 16.65 1.35 0.75 1.50 0.15 330.75 9458.25 9.90 5.25 10.30 756.69

Ghaziabad 0.60 0.75 2.10 137.93 0.60 4.80 5.20 0.60 454.28 11562.15 10.70 23.80 0.00 938.73

Ghazipur 0.00 0.75 2.70 32.85 0.80 0.05 1.00 0.30 20.78 519.68 3.30 5.75 1.85 45.37

Gorakhpur 0.40 0.30 5.78 63.45 1.45 0.55 3.15 0.05 138.23 2938.05 6.20 16.95 20.90 245.80

Hamirpur 0.40 0.45 1.35 26.33 0.30 0.00 0.55 0.05 29.03 365.48 1.75 3.90 5.85 33.49

Hardoi 0.20 1.20 3.38 15.23 1.65 0.10 1.50 0.05 46.88 1381.13 4.10 9.75 6.90 113.23

Hathras 0.20 0.60 12.60 27.60 0.60 0.10 0.80 0.20 94.05 1601.40 2.65 4.95 0.60 134.33

Jalaun 0.20 0.75 1.73 48.68 0.70 0.05 1.50 0.05 57.23 777.08 3.70 7.80 8.45 69.84

Jaunpur 0.40 0.45 1.50 31.28 0.60 0.15 1.20 0.30 158.25 1282.88 2.35 5.75 3.25 114.49

Jhansi 0.20 1.35 5.85 56.78 1.30 0.30 1.90 0.15 83.70 1939.28 5.90 12.50 0.15 162.26

JP Nagar 0.00 0.60 22.58 30.23 0.65 0.10 1.50 0.45 11.63 447.38 2.45 7.50 14.70 41.52

Kannauj 0.00 0.60 2.93 21.08 1.30 0.05 0.80 0.10 44.63 712.50 2.30 4.00 15.95 62.02

Kanpur Nagar 1.00 0.60 9.08 95.78 2.30 3.00 6.10 0.70 435.08 10603.65 19.40 46.55 4.80 863.69

Kanshiram Nagar 0.20 0.00 1.43 31.20 0.40 0.10 0.65 0.10 24.00 583.65 2.40 4.20 19.75 51.39

Kheeri 0.40 1.35 1.65 35.48 0.35 0.00 0.85 0.05 130.58 1762.58 0.80 6.90 10.60 150.12

Kushinagar 0.00 0.00 1.95 4.65 0.25 0.00 0.55 0.05 17.33 128.25 2.15 3.35 6.15 12.67

Lalitpur 0.00 0.60 0.98 19.13 0.20 0.00 0.35 0.10 5.93 300.15 1.85 2.85 3.00 25.78

Lucknow 0.80 0.15 7.05 200.03 2.90 4.70 7.15 0.40 799.65 17665.50 24.80 39.40 10.65 1443.32

Maharajganj 0.20 0.15 2.18 6.53 0.70 0.10 0.35 0.05 14.63 252.68 2.00 2.60 1.05 21.78

Mahoba 0.20 0.45 0.98 20.63 1.85 0.00 0.40 0.15 18.83 537.38 1.20 2.65 1.45 45.09

Mainpuri 0.40 0.60 1.80 36.68 0.95 0.00 1.05 0.30 4.80 258.60 1.85 5.25 38.80 27.01

Mathura 0.20 0.75 4.35 45.15 0.90 4.40 2.35 0.05 87.60 1790.78 6.40 7.40 4.25 150.35

Sant Kabir Nagar 0.00 0.15 1.13 11.70 0.20 0.00 0.30 0.05 9.98 290.10 1.00 1.35 1.50 24.42

Agra 1.20 0.90 3.45 89.85 4.50 0.95 4.65 0.35 314.70 7662.30 10.45 1.30 29.40 624.92




April 2014


P a g e | 4-8

District

Transport Agriculture Social Infrastructure Telegraph & Telecommunication Facilities Other Facilities

Development Potential

Index (DPI) No.

of

bus

sta

tio

n/

halt

No.

of

regula

t

ed

ma

ndi's

No.

of

hospita

ls

No.

of

schools

No.

of

colle

ge

s

No.

of

Te

chni

cal

institu

tion

Post

Off

ice

Te

legra

ph

No.

of

PC

O's

Te

leph

one

Fa

cili

tie

s

No.

of

Banks

Com

m

erc

ial

Shops

Agricult

ura

l

Shops

Aligarh 0.60 0.45 2.63 47.40 0.45 0.75 2.30 0.00 66.83 2508.75 5.95 13.50 29.95 206.12

Allahabad 1.00 0.30 5.18 74.48 1.45 1.40 3.75 0.20 148.73 3561.38 9.00 22.95 5.55 295.03

Ambedkar Nagar 0.20 0.15 1.65 7.65 0.80 0.10 0.75 0.25 41.40 825.75 1.60 4.30 7.80 68.65

Badau 0.20 1.20 4.20 37.05 0.60 0.00 2.00 0.30 37.95 1051.88 2.00 10.55 34.40 90.95

Baharaich 0.20 0.45 1.80 17.78 0.20 0.00 0.65 0.05 12.90 0.00 2.05 4.55 4.15 3.44

Balrampur 0.20 0.45 1.20 11.18 0.10 0.00 0.90 0.20 6.08 268.65 0.95 3.65 12.05 23.51

Barabanki 0.20 0.15 2.10 5.78 0.30 0.00 0.90 0.00 30.00 1004.63 3.90 6.20 13.30 82.11

Bareily 0.40 0.45 1.73 82.95 1.05 1.50 3.35 0.00 110.25 2589.68 6.95 20.60 29.95 219.14

Basti 0.20 0.15 0.75 4.58 0.30 0.00 0.60 0.05 75.00 630.60 1.90 2.50 9.50 55.86

Bijnour 0.40 0.75 2.33 40.35 0.95 0.50 1.95 0.00 122.33 2411.40 7.70 12.75 12.25 201.05

Faizabad 0.40 0.30 0.90 19.20 0.50 0.45 1.00 0.00 53.18 1124.93 3.80 6.85 5.60 93.62

Gonda 0.20 0.30 0.53 12.75 0.20 0.15 0.95 0.10 41.33 594.08 0.00 4.05 3.35 50.61

Kaushambi 0.00 0.45 1.20 13.13 0.20 0.05 0.35 0.00 23.33 404.93 1.65 1.55 8.00 34.99

Mau 0.20 0.30 2.40 18.60 0.70 0.00 0.60 0.00 153.83 994.95 2.25 10.65 9.80 91.87

Meerut 0.60 0.45 11.55 93.30 4.60 4.20 3.95 0.35 172.80 4731.60 8.65 20.55 14.70 389.79

Mirzapur 0.00 0.30 1.65 34.88 0.35 0.05 0.95 0.10 24.60 930.38 2.25 6.00 0.65 77.09

Moradabad 0.40 1.05 4.88 84.23 3.85 0.70 2.50 0.85 45.08 1748.63 7.90 21.95 9.50 148.58

Muzaffarnagar 0.40 1.05 2.63 88.65 3.45 0.80 2.25 0.20 105.83 3365.10 6.25 13.40 37.05 279.00

Pilibhit 0.20 0.45 1.95 29.48 0.35 0.00 1.00 0.05 16.43 586.13 2.90 5.40 1.75 49.70

Pratapgarh 0.20 0.15 1.13 15.83 0.30 0.00 1.15 0.25 69.45 126.68 1.45 2.90 3.00 17.11

Raibareily 0.40 0.60 4.05 33.75 1.50 0.10 1.30 0.00 66.68 942.23 4.60 5.75 16.00 82.84

Ramabai Nagar 0.00 0.45 0.68 13.05 0.80 0.10 0.35 0.15 15.83 290.48 2.15 1.75 1.65 25.19

Rampur 0.20 0.60 3.45 31.43 3.05 0.10 1.15 0.30 15.60 1486.58 4.25 10.10 12.70 120.73

Saharanpur 0.40 1.05 3.30 73.58 0.50 0.85 1.15 0.25 69.90 2043.75 1.00 14.45 19.85 171.54

Sant Ravidas Nagar 0.20 0.75 0.98 26.03 0.30 0.85 0.55 0.15 27.98 412.65 0.55 3.80 10.50 37.33

Shahjahanpur 0.20 0.60 3.30 12.83 0.45 0.15 2.10 0.00 18.98 485.63 3.45 8.90 8.40 41.92

Shrawasti 0.00 0.00 0.45 3.98 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.10 6.68 66.00 0.60 0.60 0.20 6.06

Siddarth Nagar 0.00 0.15 0.83 7.28 0.15 0.00 0.50 0.10 5.40 208.50 1.40 2.30 2.15 17.60

Sitapur 0.20 0.30 2.25 50.85 1.65 0.25 1.65 0.05 48.30 1504.13 4.35 8.55 7.50 125.39

Sonabhadra 0.00 0.45 3.30 14.55 0.55 0.00 0.75 0.45 24.23 1062.68 2.10 3.80 0.30 85.63

Sultanpur 0.40 0.15 3.15 7.20 0.35 0.30 0.80 0.05 41.85 844.95 2.75 3.40 8.80 70.32

Unnao 0.20 0.30 2.25 27.45 0.60 0.40 1.20 0.10 51.98 1356.38 3.30 8.95 1.35 111.88

Varanasi 0.00 0.45 3.15 13.05 0.55 0.00 0.70 0.45 23.55 1044.68 1.95 3.60 0.30 84.03

Average 0.28 0.51 2.95 36.43 0.98 0.51 1.45 0.56 91.58 1790.21 3.93 8.50 10.13 149.85




April 2014


P a g e | 4-9

The percentage distribution of Districts by DPI is presented in Figure 4.2.

Figure 4.2: DISTRIBUTION OF DISTRICTS BY DPI

It can be seen that around 45% of districts in rural area and 34% in urban area has DPI value

less than 50. Around 40-50% of districts in rural and urban area have DPI value ranging

between 50-150. Only 3% of districts in rural area have DPI value more than 200 whereas 18%

of districts in urban area have DPI value more than 200. Urban settlements in Districts are

depicting an upward trend as compared to Rural Blocks.

Districts have been ranked based on DPI values in order to identify the performance of various

districts. The ranking of districts is presented in Table 4.3 & Figure 4.3 for Rural and Urban

Blocks.

Table 4.3: RANKING OF DISTRICTS BY DPI (RURAL & URBAN)

District (Rural) Development

Potential Index (DPI)

Ranking

District (Urban) Development


Ranking

Ghaziabad 354.09 1.00 Lucknow 1443.32 1.00

Ghazipur 275.39 2.00 Ghaziabad 938.73 2.00

Raibareily 163.09 3.00 Kanpur Nagar 863.69 3.00

Muzzaffarnagar 152.64 4.00 Gautam Buddha Nagar 756.69 4.00

Bulandshahar 141.38 5.00 Agra 624.92 5.00

Pratapgarh 136.83 6.00 Meerut 389.79 6.00

Gonda 135.94 7.00 Allahabad 295.03 7.00

Bijnaur 135.28 8.00 Muzzaffarnagar 279.00 8.00

Mathura 126.33 9.00 Gorakhpur 245.80 9.00

Kheeri 125.91 10.00 Bulandshahar 231.97 10.00

Allahabad 114.13 11.00 Bareily 219.14 11.00

Meerut 112.93 12.00 Aligarh 206.12 12.00

Jaunpur 112.74 13.00 Bijnour 201.05 13.00

Saharanpur 92.48 14.00 Saharanpur 171.54 14.00

Fatehpur 89.04 15.00 Jhansi 162.26 15.00

Mainpuri 85.91 16.00 Mathura 150.35 16.00

Siddarth Nagar 85.36 17.00 Kheeri 150.12 17.00

45.1%

36.6%

12.7%

2.8% 2.8%

33.8%

29.6%

12.7%

5.6%

18.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

<50 50-100 100-150 150-200 >200

Perc

en

tag

e o

f D

istr

icts

DPI

Rural

Urban




April 2014


P a g e | 4-10

District (Rural) Development


Ranking

District (Urban) Development


Ranking

Sitapur 82.86 18.00 Moradabad 148.58 18.00

Moradabad 81.61 19.00 Hathras 134.33 19.00

Sultanpur 79.98 20.00 Sitapur 125.39 20.00

Jalaun 76.72 21.00 Rampur 120.73 21.00

Mau 76.39 22.00 Jaunpur 114.49 22.00

Farukkabad 73.79 23.00 Hardoi 113.23 23.00

Badau 72.83 24.00 Etawah 112.59 24.00

Sonabhadra 72.16 25.00 Unnao 111.88 25.00

Ambedkar Nagar 72.14 26.00 Farukkabad 111.86 26.00

Azamgarh 71.29 27.00 Azamgarh 94.97 27.00

Gautam Buddha Nagar 67.60 28.00 Faizabad 93.62 28.00

Varanasi 65.75 29.00 Balia 92.19 29.00

Kannauj 64.29 30.00 Mau 91.87 30.00

Chandauli 62.79 31.00 Badau 90.95 31.00

Hardoi 62.48 32.00 Sonabhadra 85.63 32.00

Etah 62.35 33.00 Varanasi 84.03 33.00

Basti 61.74 34.00 Raibareily 82.84 34.00

Unnao 60.03 35.00 Barabanki 82.11 35.00

Balia 57.16 36.00 Mirzapur 77.09 36.00

Etawah 55.61 37.00 Sultanpur 70.32 37.00

Kanshiram Nagar 53.12 38.00 Jalaun 69.84 38.00

Kushinagar 52.04 39.00 Ambedkar Nagar 68.65 39.00

Agra 49.48 40.00 Etah 64.36 40.00

Aligarh 48.94 41.00 Kannauj 62.02 41.00

Ramabai Nagar 48.70 42.00 Firozabad 61.36 42.00

Gorakhpur 48.42 43.00 Banda 56.27 43.00

Barabanki 48.34 44.00 Basti 55.86 44.00

Kanpur Nagar 47.89 45.00 Fatehpur 54.81 45.00

Faizabad 43.48 46.00 Kanshiram Nagar 51.39 46.00

Baharaich 42.97 47.00 Gonda 50.61 47.00

Kaushambi 41.28 48.00 Pilibhit 49.70 48.00

Rampur 40.87 49.00 Ghazipur 45.37 49.00

Banda 40.61 50.00 Mahoba 45.09 50.00

Bareily 39.37 51.00 Shahjahanpur 41.92 51.00

Deoria 37.47 52.00 JP Nagar 41.52 52.00

Shahjahanpur 37.08 53.00 Sant Ravidas Nagar 37.33 53.00

Hamirpur 36.69 54.00 Kaushambi 34.99 54.00

Balrampur 35.83 55.00 Hamirpur 33.49 55.00

Maharajganj 35.49 56.00 Deoria 32.25 56.00

Lucknow 35.04 57.00 Chandauli 31.63 57.00

Firozabad 34.83 58.00 Auraiyya 31.27 58.00

Pilibhit 34.81 59.00 Mainpuri 27.01 59.00

Jhansi 33.49 60.00 Lalitpur 25.78 60.00

Lalitpur 32.74 61.00 Chitrakoot 25.38 61.00

Hathras 31.44 62.00 Ramabai Nagar 25.19 62.00

Sant Ravidas Nagar 27.57 63.00 Sant Kabir Nagar 24.42 63.00

Mirzapur 25.64 64.00 Balrampur 23.51 64.00

JP Nagar 24.70 65.00 Maharajganj 21.78 65.00

Bagpat 22.56 66.00 Bagpat 21.23 66.00

Auraiyya 22.28 67.00 Siddarth Nagar 17.60 67.00

Chitrakoot 20.77 68.00 Pratapgarh 17.11 68.00

Sant Kabir Nagar 18.60 69.00 Kushinagar 12.67 69.00

Mahoba 15.28 70.00 Shrawasti 6.06 70.00

Shrawasti 13.16 71.00 Baharaich 3.44 71.00




April 2014


P a g e | 4-11

Figure 4.3: DISTRICT WISE RANKINGS BY DPI

0.0050.00

100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.00

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DP

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Districts

Distribution of Districts by DPI (Rural)

0.00200.00400.00600.00800.00

1000.001200.001400.001600.00

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DP

I

Districts

Distribution of Districts by DPI (Urban)




April 2014


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The ranking of districts by rural and urban classification indicates the following:

i. Major districts in urban blocks with higher DPI values are Lucknow, Ghaziabad,

Kanpur Nagar, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Agra, Meerut, Allahabad, Muzzaffarnagar,

Gorakhpur, Bulandshahar & Bareily. These districts have strong industrial base and

tourism attractions. The socio-economic facilities in these districts are adequate and

therefore, will continue to grow in near future. Other districts with DPI in the middle

range have sizeable potential in small scale industrial growth and other economic

activities in urban fringes. The districts with lower DPI in urban locations will need

enhanced transport infrastructure including road network connectivity in near future.

ii. In rural blocks districts having higher DPI value are Ghaziabad, Ghazipur, Raibareily,

Muzzaffarnagar, Bulandshahar, Pratapgarh, Gonda, Bijnaur, Mathura, Kheeri,

Allahabad, Meerut, Jaunpur & Saharanpur. These districts have better transport

linkages and adequate social infrastructure. Districts with DPI in the mid range also

have sizeable facilities and will continue to grow with enhanced tourism infrastructure,

small and medium scale industries and agriculture markets. The lower ranked

districts will be analysed vis-à-vis network connectivity and social and other

infrastructure so that missing gaps are identified.

4.2.2. Settlement Hierarchy

Settlement hierarchy is an important indicator for identifying potential linking of settlements

with transport network. It sets out a clear order of preference for the locations of

development in both short and long term perspective. This will be useful in identifying

potential links in the Core Road Network through block level (urban and rural) assessment

in future analysis.

In the present report the settlements hierarchy has been analysed at the District level for

Urban and Rural Blocks. The settlements have been split into following hierarchies.

i. Hierarchy by population

ii. Hierarchy by DPI

iii. Hierarchy by DPI versus population

The hierarchy of settlements is presented in Tables 4.4 (a to c) for rural blocks and

Tables 4.5 (a to c) for urban blocks by districts.

Table 4.4 (a) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY POP AT DIST. LEVEL – RURAL

Population (lakh)

Districts

<5 Mahoba

5 to 10 Chitrakoot, gautam Buddha Nagar, Lalitpur, Hamirpur, Baghpat

10 to 20

Auraiyya, Etawah, Jhansi, Hathras, Jalaun, JP Nagar, Shrawasti, Kannauj, Sant Ravidas Nagar, Sonabhadra, Kaushambi, Farukkabad, Banda, Sant Kabir Nagar,Lucknow, Pilhibit, Mainpuri, Kanpur Nagar, Firozabad, Rampur, Ramabai Nagar, Chandauli, Ghaziabad, Mathura, Mau, Meerut, balrampur,Faizabad,Mirzapur, Ambedkar Nagar, Varanasi, Siddhart Nagar, Basti

>20

Shahjahanpur, Agra,Maharajganj, Fatehpur, Aligarh, Bahraich, Sultanpur, Bulandshahar, Unnao, Eah, Bijnaur,Barabanki, Bareily, Deoria, Balia, Badaun, Gonda,Pratapgarh, Raibareily, Muzzaffarnagar, Moradabad, Kushinagar,Ghazipur, kheeri, Hardoi, Allahabad, Azamgarh, Gorakhpur, Jaunpur, Sitapur, Sultanpur




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Table 4.4 (b) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY DPI AT DISTRICT LEVEL – RURAL

DPI Districts

<50

Shrawasti, Mahoba, Sant kabir Nagar, Chitrakoot, Auraiyya, Bagpat, JP Nagar, Mirzapur, Sant Ravidas Nagar, Hathras, Lalitpur, Jhansi, Pilhibit, Firozabad, Lucknow, Maharajganj, Balrampur, Hamirpur, Shahjahanpur, Deoria,Bareily, Banda, Rampur,Kaushambi, Bahraich,Faizabad,Kanpur Nagar,Barabanki,Gorakhpur,Ramabai Nagar, Aligarh, Agra

50 - 100

Kushinagar, Kansiramnagar, Etawah, Balia, Unnao, Basti, Etah, Hardoi, Chandauli, Kannauj, Varanasi, gautam Buddha Nagar, Azamgarh, Ambedkar Nagar, Sonabhadra, Badaun, Farukkabad, Mau, Jalaun, Sultanpur, Moradabad, Sitapur, Siddhart Nagar, Mainpuri, Fatehpur, Saharanpur

100 - 150 Jaunpur, Meerut, Allahabad, Kheeri, Mathura, Bijnaur, Gonda, Pratapgarh, Bulandshahar

>150 Muzzaffarnagar, Raibareily, Ghazipur, Ghaziabad

Table 4.4 (c) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY DPI & POP

AT DISTRICT LEVEL – RURAL

Population (lakh)

DPI

<50 50-100 100-150 >150

<5 Mahoba - -

5 to 10 Chitrakoot, Lalitpur, Hamirpur, Baghpat

Gautam Buddha Nagar

10 to 20

Shrawasti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Auraiyya, JP Nagar, Mirzapur, Sant Ravidas Nagar, Hathras, Jhansi, Pilhibit, Firozabad, Lucknow, Balrampur, Banda, Rampur, Kaushambi, Faizabad, Kanpur Nagar, Ramabai Nagar

Etawah, Basti, Chandauli, Kannauj, Varanasi, Ambedkar Nagar, Sonabhadra, Farukkabad, Mau, Jalaun, Siddhart Nagar, Mainpuri

Meerut, Mathura Ghaziabad

>20

Maharajganj, Shahjahanpur, Deoria, Bareily, Bahraich, Barabanki, Aligarh, Agra, Gorakhpur

Kushinagar, balia, Unnao, Etah, Hardoi, Badaun, Moradabad, Fatehpur, Saharanpur, Azamgarh, Sultanpur, Sitapur

Kheeri, Bijnaur, Gonda, Pratapgarh, Bulandshahar, Jaunpur, Allahabad

Muzzaffarnagar, Raibareily, Ghazipur




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Table 4.5 (a) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY POP AT DISTRICT LEVEL –

URBAN

Population (lakh)

Districts

<5

Shrawasti, Chitrakoot, Siddhart Nagar, Kaushambi, Sant Kabir Nagar, Ramabai Nagar, Maharajganj, Basti, Kushinagar, Balrampur, Lalitpur, Pratapgarh, Sultanpur, Auraiyya, Sant Ravidas Nagar, Chandauli, Hamirpur, Ambedkar Nagar, Gonda, Baghpat, Kannauj, Mainpuri, Ghazipur, Fatehpur, Bahraich, Banda, Barabanki, Hathras, Deoria, Balia, Raibareily, Sonabhadra, Faizabad, Mirzapur, Jaunpur, Pilhibit, Azamgarh, Etawah, Jalaun, Farukkabad, Kheeri, Mau, JP Nagar, Hardoi, Unnao, Sitapur, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Rampur, Etah

5 to 10 Shahjahanpur, Mahoba, Badaun, Mathura, Firozabad, Bulandshahar, Jhansi, Gorakhpur, Saharanpur, Bijnaur, Aligarh, Muzzaffarnagar

10 to 20 Moradabad, Bareily, Allahabad, Varanasi, Meerut, Agra, Ghaziabad

>20 Lucknow, Kanpur Nagar

Table 4.5 (b) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY DPI AT DISTRICT LEVEL –

URBAN

DPI Districts

<50

Bahraich, Shrawasti, Kushinagar, Pratapgarh, Siddhart Nagar, Baghpat, Maharajganj, Balrampur, Sant Kabir Nagar, Ramabai Nagar, Chitrakoot, Lalitpur, Mainpuri, Auraiyya, Chandauli, Deoria, Hamirpur, Kaushambi, Sant Ravidas Nagar, JP Nagar, Shahjahanpur, Mahoba, Ghazipur, Pilibhit

50 - 100 Gonda, Fatehpur, Basti, Banda, Firozabad, Kannauj, Etah, Ambedkar Nagar, Jalaun, Sultanpur, Mirzapur, Barabanki, Raibareily, Varanasi, Sonabhadra, Badaun, Mau, Balia, Faizabad, Azamgarh

100 - 150 Farukkabad, Unnao, Etawah, Hardoi, Jaunpur, Rampur, sitapur, Hathras, Moradabad

>150 Kheeri, Mathura, Jhansi, Saharanpur, Bijnaur, Aligarh, Bareily, Bulandshahar, Gorakhpur, Muzaffarnagar, Allahabad, Meerut, Agra, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Kanpur Nagar, Ghaziabad, Lucknow




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Table 4.5 (c) HIERARCHY OF GROUP OF SETTLEMENTS BY POP & DPI AT DIST. LEVEL – URBAN

Population (lakh)

DPI

<50 50-100 100-150 >150

<5

Bahraich, Shrawasti, Kushinagar, Pratapgarh, Siddhart Nagar, Baghpat, Maharjganj, Balrampur, Sant Kabir Nagar, Ramabai Nagar, Chitrakoot, lalitpur, Mainpuri, Auraiyya, Chandauli, Deoria, Hanirpur, Kaushambi, Sant Ravidas Nagar, JP Nagar, Ghazipur, Pilibhit

Gonda, Fatehpur, Basti, Banda, Kannauj, etah, Ambedkar Nagar, Jalaun, Sultanpur, Mirzapur, Barabanki, Raibareily, Sonabhadra, Mau, Balia, Faizabad, Azamgarh

Farukkabad, Unnao, Etawah, Hardoi, Jaunpur, rampur, Sitapur,Hathras,

Kheeri, Gautam Buddha Nagar

5 to 10 Shahjahanpur, Mahoba Firozabad, Badaun -

Mathura, Jhansi, Saharanpur, Bijnaur, Aligarh, Bulandshahar, Grakhpur, Muzzaffarnagar

10 to 20 - Varanasi Moradabad

Bareily, Allahabad, Meerut, Agra, Ghaziabad

>20 - - - Lucknow, Kanpur Nagar

A distinct comparison can be drawn with above analysis with hierarchy of settlements with

population & DPI standalone vis-à-vis DPI with population of settlements at the District

Level. The higher order Districts observed are Kheeri, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Mathura,

Jhansi, Saharanpur, Bijnaur, Aligarh, Bulandshahar, Grakhpur, Muzzaffarnagar, Bareily,

Allahabad, Meerut, Agra, Ghaziabad, Lucknow & Kanpur Nagar. Similarly, lower order

Distrcuts observed are Bahraich, Shrawasti, Kushinagar, Pratapgarh, Siddhart Nagar,

Baghpat, Maharjganj, Balrampur, Sant Kabir Nagar, Ramabai Nagar, Chitrakoot, lalitpur,

Mainpuri, Auraiyya, Chandauli, Deoria, Hanirpur, Kaushambi, Sant Ravidas Nagar, JP

Nagar, Ghazipur, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur & Mahoba. The other districts fall in the middle

range.

4.3. STRATEGIC CORE NETWORK - APPROACH

4.3.1. Vision Statement for Strategic Core Road Network

The strategy to be adopted for identification of Strategic Core Network has been addressed

through comprehensive transportation planning principles keeping in view the objectives of

the State and its economic potential. This network will be a minimum need for aiding fast

and safe mobility of goods and people for the sustainable economic development of the

State of Uttar Pradesh.

The road network of Uttar Pradesh will be developed by the year 2031 to provide a well-

developed hierarchy of primary and secondary roads, with surface free from potholes,

having good riding quality, lessened congestion, involving private sector in implementation

of construction and maintenance to serve majority of towns and villages, road connecting all

habitation of more than 250 in the line with the guidelines of Govt. of India. The road system

will complement other modes of transport and will provide economic, fuel efficient, safe and

quick means of transport. The technology of road construction and maintenance will

maximise the use of local available materials and shall not affect the environment and fully

comply with land acquisition and rehabilitation and resettlement policy of Government.




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The abridged form the Statement shall be read as ‘Development and Expansion of

Strategic Road Network through robust, safe and sustainable models of Planning,

Design and Implementation to aid rapid & safe mobility of goods and passengers

connecting agriculture, industrial, tourism and other economically potential areas’.

Benefits:

- Enhanced connectivity to agriculture centers and industries

- Better Connectivity to Tourism centers

- Greater economic activity and employment opportunity

- Create value for money of public investment

- Control mechanisms to minimise delays and efficient traffic operation

- Reduction of traffic accidents fatalities and injuries

- Achieve highest maintenance standards

- Efficient integration facilities with rail and air corridors

- Prioritise up-gradation of higher order roads and exploit PPP potential

4.3.2. Approach

The approach followed on identification of strategic core road network in the State has been

recognised with two fold strategy giving due considerations to sizeable traffic movement as

potential on major travel corridors and economic demand drivers in the State.

The methodology for screening process adopted by the consultants was based on the

similar experience of various Strategic Options Studies convened by the State of Haryana,

Punjab and Karnataka. The weightage index adopted depends on the type of study being

convened i.e. strategic options for major highway development program, category wise

analysis and feasibility aspects. The ultimate objective and perspective of this study is to

prepare a master plan and identify a strategic network for the horizon year 2031. The socio-

economic profile of the various states is also different and weightages adopted for various

traffic and economic parameters will vary. The weightages adopted in this study are

suitable for master planning at macro level and includes Development Potential Index

computed by the consultants for all sectors of economy with settlement hierarchy. This was

also envisaged in the report on ‘Technical Assistance for Implementation of Institutional

Reforms in the Road Sector of Uttar Pradesh’ convened by UPPWD.

4.3.2.1. Part I – Identify Minimum Set of Core Network Links

Various attributes adopted for identifying the minimum core network length was based on

mainly and firstly, on traffic demand analysis and its forecast achieved through robust

transport planning process by development and operationalisation of travel demand model

and its forecast and validation procedures through distinct stages. This analysis has been

presented in detail in earlier submissions.

The economic parameters considered were from Agriculture locations, Industrial Centres,

Tourist Centres etc. The development potential indices evaluated for the state is an

important indicator infrastructure available in various urban and rural settlements. This

exercise has been done in detail and presented in various submissions with detailed

discussions and approval. The important parameters of traffic demand and economic

drivers were then supplemented with the per capita availability of National highways, State

Highways, Major District Roads and Other District Roads in the State. This matrix was

further supplemented by important social and environmental parameters to include the

sensitive locations in the Strategic Core Network.

4.3.2.2. Network Screening

This is an important phase of network identification to sieve the network based on traffic

demand and economic demand drivers. This analysis will give us the minimum set of core

network links.




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- Traffic: The parameters adopted were ADT and share of commercial vehicles including

road capacity utilisation (V/C Ratio)

- Economic and Demand Drivers: The parameters chosen were Development Potential

Index (DPI), Location of Agriculture and Industrial Centers, Tourism locations, Urban

and Administrative Centers

- Connectivity Indices: Per capita availability of NH and SH; MDR and ODR

- Social: % SC/ST Population, BPL population

- Per capita availability of hospitals, schools and colleges

4.3.2.3. Part II – Identify Final Set of Core Network Links

In this part the evaluation of various scenarios has been taken up and the matrix has been

prepared for each scenario with the following parameters:

- Lengths of NH, SH, NDR and ODR

- Connectivity of major links with Agriculture Centers, Quarries, Tourism Centers, Wildlife

Sanctuary

- All selected roads in Part I of the process and all 6 lane roads.

Finally, the final set of core network links has been identified based on;

- Coverage of all the selected parameters in various different scenarios

- Finalise the scenario based on maximum coverage

- Combine the common network from various analysed options with best network to

produce a composite network

- Plot the composite network

- Next step was to identify judiciously, gaps in the composite network in terms of

contiguity, connectivity to unconnected nodes.

- Finally, core network has been finalise by adding the above additional links to the

composite network.

The methodology is explained in flow chart presented in Figure 4.4 below.




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Fig 4.4: APPROACH METHODOLOGY TOWARDS IDENTIFICATION OF CORE NETWORK

Core Network Identification

Prepare Base Network Link File

Attributes - Traffic Volume - Economic Parameters – Agricultural

Mandi’s, Industrial Centers, Tourist Centers

- Development Potential Index (DPI) - Availability of NH, SH, MDR, ODR per

capita - Environmental Parameters - Social Parameters

Screening of Network

Identify Screening Parameters

Traffic Economic &

Demand

Drivers

Connectivity &

Network

Availability

Environment Social

Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Share of Commercial Vehicles V/C Ratio

Settlement

Performance

Index (DPI)

Agricultural &

Industrial Centers

Tourist Center

Urban Centre

Administrative

Centre

Per capita

availability of NH

and SH

Per capita

availability of MDR

and ODR

%age of Wildlife

Areas

%age of Forest

Reserve Areas

%age of SC/ST

population

%age of BPL

population

Per capita

availability of:

Hospitals

Schools

Colleges

Assign Weights to Parameters under different Scenarios

Calculate Individual Link Score under different Scenarios

Rank the Network Links and identify first set of Network Links

based on a Threshold Value

Identify Common Set of Links in all Scenarios

This Analysis shall give the Minimum Set of Core Network Links

PART I –

Identify

Minimum Set of

Core Network

Links




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4.4. SCREENING OF NETWORK

4.4.1. Introduction

Network screening is process which aims to identify important road links within the road

system based on transport demand, infrastructure shortfall, connectivity, economic

prioritization that will enable safe and efficient road usage connect all important growth

centres and meet the developmental objectives of the state. A detailed analysis has been

carried based on finalised screening parameters to identify potential road network links.

Core Network Identification PART II – Identify

Final Set of Core

Network Links Evaluation of Different Scenarios

Prepare Matrix for each Scenario –

Satisfying following Parameters

Evaluation Parameters

- Length of NH, SH, MDR and ODR

- Connectivity with Major Links – Industrial Centers,

Agricultural Centers, Quarries, Tourist Centers,

Wildlife Sanctuary

- All selected and 6 lane roads

Compare Coverage of all the Parameters

in different Scenarios

Finalize the Scenario based on the

Maximum Coverage

Combine Common Network and Best

Feasible Scenario to form Composite

Network

Plotting Of Composite Network

Identify the Gaps in Composite Network

in terms of Contiguity, Connectivity to

Unconnected Nodes etc.

Finalize the Core Network by adding

Additional Links to the Composite

Network




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2.3.2 Network Screening Parameters

The network has been screened based on the following parameters:

1. Traffic considerations

2. Economic criteria

3. Connectivity considerations

4. Environment criteria

5. Social criteria

4.4.1.1. Traffic Considerations

Traffic demand is an important dimension of assessing overall impacts of development.

Traffic congestion results in number of problems that includes economic costs, pollution,

accidents etc. As a result traffic analysis is a common planning tool to foresee demands on

the transportation network and mitigate negative impacts. In the screening process traffic

demand is one of the most important parameter in identifying the potential transport

network. The measures considered of each of the traffic considerations parameters are:

- Average Daily Traffic (PCU/Vehicles per day)

- Share of Commercial Vehicles (% of commercial traffic)

- Level of Service ( V/C Ratio)

The above parameters are the subset of traffic and will help in demarcating potential traffic

generating links.

4.4.1.2. Economic Criteria

Improvements to transportation network tend to have an impact on economy of the region.

An improvement to a link in the network will confer economic benefits to the region. In

identifying core network links our priority is to connect growth and administrative centres.

The measures considered for each of the economic criteria parameters are as given below:

- Agricultural and Industrial Growth Centres (Number of such centres)

- Tourist Centres (Number of such centres)

- Urban Centres (number of such centres)

- Administrative Centre (number of such centres)

- Settlement Performance Index (DPI value)

4.4.1.3. Connectivity Considerations

Road connectivity is considered as backbone for socio economic development of a region.

An improved connectivity and accessibility to major growth and rural centres is an important

factor in economic development of a region. The core network plan aims to promote

accessibility and connectivity to most of the important centres in the region. The measures

considered for connectivity considerations parameters are the Per Capita Network

availability for NH/SH/MDR/ODR (length of network availability per capita).

4.4.1.4. Environment Criteria

The main aim of the core network identification is to identify safe and efficient network

within the framework of sustainable development. The road network identified shall support

the economic growth, social progress and at the same time respect the environmental

quality of the region. The consultants shall put in best efforts to integrate environmental

issues in the core road network plan. The measures for environment criteria parameters

identified are:




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- Wildlife areas availability (Percentage of Wildlife areas)

- Forest Reserve Areas availability (Percentage of Forest Reserve Areas)

4.4.1.5. Social Criteria

Road network contributes significantly to the socio-economic development of the region and

has a positive impact on backward areas, areas with less/inadequate infrastructure

facilities. The core network shall bring positive economic development for these areas and

result in relatively greater improvement in their living standards as compared to other parts.

The measures considered for social criteria parameters are:

- SC/ST population (Percentage of SC/ST population)

- BPL population (Percentage of SC/ST population)

- Access to hospitals (Per capita availability of hospitals)

- Access to educational centres (Per capita availability of educational centres)

- Access to religious places (Per capita availability of religious places)

The network attributes compiled at district level is attached as Annexure B-4.1. The base

map of road network of UP State is presented as Figure 4.5.

4.4.2. Scoring of Network Links

4.4.2.1. Introduction

Scoring method will allow the roads link to be prioritized according to defined attributes and

structured scoring process. The approach adopted is to score network links against list of

identified parameters with weights assigned to each attribute. The score calculated is the

composite score of all the weighted attributes. The links are ranked based on the composite

score calculated for each link.

4.4.2.2. Weighting of Parameters

Weight assignment reflects the importance of parameters for the purpose of proposed

activity and emphasizes the decision making. Different weights have been assigned to

parameters in four different scenarios so as to take into account importance of each

parameter and assess different perspectives. In all, these four scenarios have been

formulated and tested. The first and second scenario focuses on the traffic demand aspect

while in the third and fourth scenario, higher weightings are assigned through economic

criteria and connectivity considerations. Environment and Social aspects have been

assigned same weights in all the scenarios keeping in view the importance of sustainability.

The attributes identified for network screening has already been discussed in previous

section. The weight assigned to each of the attribute under different scenarios is presented

in Table 4.6 below:

Table 4.6 ASSIGNED WEIGHTS TO PARAMETERS

Parameters

Weightages

Scenario I Scenario

II Scenario III Scenario IV

Traffic considerations 60 50 40 20

Economic criteria 10 15 20 30

Connectivity considerations 10 15 20 30

Environment criteria 10 10 10 10

Social criteria 10 10 10 10




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Weightages assigned to each of the individual measures of parameter is given in Table 4.7.

Table 4.7 ASSIGNED WEIGHTS TO INDIVIDUAL MEASURES OF PARAMETERS

PARAMETERS WEIGHTAGES

Traffic considerations

ADT

< 3000 PCU

3000 - 5000 PCU

>5000 PCU

60%

20%

30%

50%

Share of Commercial Vehicles 10%

V/C Ratio 30%

Economic criteria

Settlement Performance Index (DPI) 40%

Agricultural & Industrial Centers 30%

No. of Tourist Centre 15%

No. of Urban Centre 7.5%

Administrative Centre 7.5%

Connectivity considerations

Per capita availability of NH and SH

Per capita availability of MDR and ODR

60%

40%

Environment criteria

%age of Wildlife areas 50%

%age of Forest reserve areas 50%

Social criteria

Percentage of:

SC/ST population

BPL population

20%

20%

Per capita availability of:

Hospitals

Schools

Colleges

20%

20%

20%

Individual composite link scores were calculated based on assigned weights taking into

account the normalisation process. Road Links were ranked according to composite score

(highest score being ranked as no.1).

4.5. INITIAL CORE NETWORK IDENTIFICATION

The process of identifying the initial core network in all the four scenarios involved arranging

the links in descending order based on their scores. The cumulative length of the road links

was computed starting from Rank 1 link. Once the cumulative length attains a value of pre-

decided threshold value of core network length all the links comprising the link set within

that value is considered to be initial set of core network. This procedure has been done for

all four scenarios and link sets are identified.

It may be noted that UP state has a total network length of 1.75 lakh km out of which NH,

SH, MDR and ODR comprise more than 55,000 km of length. The threshold value for initial

identification of core network is set initially at 15000 km (excluding the National Highways)

of cumulative length based on discussions with the State PWD officials. Accordingly, as per

the process described above the initial core network link set in all the four scenarios was

identified.

4.5.1. Identification of Common set of Network links

After identifying the initial set of core network links in all four scenarios the next step is to

identify common set of links appearing in all four scenarios. This common link set will be

considered as minimum core network required for the region. To strengthen the core




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network in terms of connectivity and continuity, links identified in all four scenarios will be

evaluated based on certain attributes to form a composite network that satisfies maximum

criteria. The final core network link identification process is explained in subsequent

chapter.

4.6. CORE NETWORK EVALUATION

4.6.1. Introduction

The key objective of core network is to provide a minimum network that will allow all round

and continuous mobility catering to sizeable inter-regional traffic, enable safe and efficient

road usage, link all important economic growth centres and areas of strategic importance,

enable geographical reach, connect backward areas, meet the developmental objectives of

the state and is environmentally sustainable. The core road network has to be maintained

at all times as it influences the economic and social development of the State.

4.6.2. Evaluation of Alternative Scenarios

4.6.2.1. Evaluation Criteria

A detailed assessment of the alternative scenarios was carried out based on the criteria

listed below. It may be noted that while in all the four scenarios the initial core network

length is nearly same around 15,000 km the scenarios are varying in terms of their network

hierarchy, namely NH, SH, MDR and ODR as a result of different weights in different

scenarios as described earlier. In order to identify the final core network different criteria

were developed keeping in view the vision and the basic function of the core network. The

criteria identified are as under:

1. Length of National Highways

2. Length of State Highways

3. Length of Major District Roads

4. Length of Other District Roads

5. Connectivity with Major Links:

- Industrial Centres

- Agricultural Mandi’s

- Quarries

- Tourist Centres

- Wildlife Sanctuary

- Urban Centres and Administrative Centres

6. Connect all 4 and 6 lane roads

4.6.2.2. Evaluation of Scenarios

The alternate scenarios have been evaluated based on their ability of the respective

scenario to address all the parameters and the scenarios which provides maximum

coverage vis-a-vis the others is finally selected as the scenario for core network

identification. Table 4.8 below presents the results on the evaluation of scenarios.




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Table 4.8 EVALUATION OF SCENARIOS

Parameters Total

SC-1 SC-2 SC-3 SC-4 Common Network

Length % Length % Lengt

h %

Length

% Length %

NH (km) 7737 6162 80% 6135 79% 5623 73% 2631 34% 5204 67%

SH (km) 7354 4338 59% 3585 49% 3197 43% 2478 34% 3013 41%

MDR (km) 7208 1220 17% 1328 18% 1334 19% 1841 26% 915 13%

ODR (km) 32838 3067 9% 4245 13% 5133 16% 8335 25% 2481 8%

Total Length (km) 51242 14787 29% 15293 30% 15287 30% 15285 30% 11613 23%

Connectivity to District Centers with Major Links

Total Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. %

Connectivity with Major Nodes

Industrial Centers 94 59 63% 55 59% 57 61% 20 21% 33 35%

Agricultural Centers 205 136 66% 100 49% 103 50% 60 29% 44 21%

Quarries 32 14 44% 19 59% 18 56% 11 34% 13 41%

Tourist/Pilgrims 133 45 34% 41 31% 42 32% 24 18% 38 29%

Wild Life Sanctuaries 25 16 64% 16 64% 15 60% 8 32% 11 44%

Total Facilities (Nos.) 489 270 55% 231 47% 235 48% 123 25% 139 28%

All selected 4 & 6 lane roads (km)

3057 2148 70% 2089 68% 2017 66% 806 26% 1986 65%

It can be observed from the matrix that out of all the four scenarios Option I cater to the

maximum parameters as reflected by percentage share of coverage. It can be observed

that the connectivity to majority of important nodes is the maximum in Scenario I.

Scenario I also links / connects majority of proposed 4 and 6 lane roads in the network.

Looking at the holistic picture it can be stated that of all the scenarios, Scenario I satisfies

maximum attributes and is the best suited option. These scenarios were then superimposed

on GIS to identify the additional links needed for the core network.

4.6.3. Identification of Additional Links

It was observed that while Scenario I would cater to maximum traffic and connect major

economic growth centres but will not completely address all the parameters within the

region. Hence, it is necessary to further strengthen the network so as to meet all the

objectives of core network. Additional links have been identified with a view to maintain the

continuity of movement, connectivity between the links, connectivity to all economic growth

centres, access to all major traffic generating corridors, connectivity to backward areas

etc. Hence the core network identified in Scenario 1 was further enhanced by identifying

additional links to satisfy the above mentioned aspects.

During the process of finalisation and analysis of core network, the ODRs identified from

the screening process were of shorter lengths and were not reflecting the connectivity to

major economic centers. Therefore, it was decided to keep only those ODR from this

analysis having a considerable length and connectivity with main highways and economic

centers. Therefore, ODR for core road inclusion were selected to establish gaps and

achieve 100% & last mile connectivity with agriculture, industrial, tourism locations etc.

4.6.4. Initial Strategic Core Network

A composite initial core network was developed by combining the road network of

Scenario (I) and the additional network links identified. The proposed final core network of

22,888 km includes all the National Highways (100%), State Highways (98%), MDR (56%)

and ODR (10%).

The summary of proposed initial core network and its evaluation is given in Table 4.9.




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Table 4.9 SUMMARY OF INITIAL STRATEGIC CORE NETWORK

Parameters Total

Final Core Network (SC1+Additional Links)

Length %

NH (km) 7737 7737 100%

SH (km) 7354 7229 98%

MDR (km) 7208 4068 56%

ODR (km) 32838 3254 10%

Total Length (km) 55137 22288 40%

Connectivity with Major Nodes Total Total %

Industrial Centers 94 94 100

Agricultural Centers 205 205 100

Quarries 32 32 100

Tourist/Pilgrims 133 133 100

Wild Life Sanctuaries 25 25 100

Total Facilities (Nos.) 489 489 100

All selected 4 & 6 lane roads (km) 3057 3057 100

The Initial proposed Core Network was presented to UPPWD and GoUP and it was felt by

all to increase the weightage of traffic components by 5% for recommended Option-I and

re-work the screening process to facilitate inclusion of major traffic carrying potential

corridors in the core network from the ambit of SH and MDR.

It was also discussed and agreed that environmental measures have been overlooked

since it means connecting more roads with forest areas where higher area under forest are

available. Therefore, it was decided that environmental criteria may be dropped in view of

the importance of core network development. The composite length of MDR category was

also not satisfactory and needed a re-assessment in the screening process. The option I

was re-worked by the consultants with above mentioned and agreed changes in

weightage’s.

The finalised and agreed weightage adopted for various parameters and sub-weightages

for individual parameters is summarised below in Table 4.10.

Table 4.10 ASSIGNED WEIGHTS TO PARAMETERS – REVISED & FINAL

PARAMETERS Weight (%)

OVERALL SHARE

Traffic considerations 65

Economic criteria 15

Connectivity considerations 15

Social criteria 5

SUB-PARAMETERS Weight (%)

Traffic considerations

ADT

< 3000 PCU

3000 - 5000 PCU

>5000 PCU

60%

20%

30%

50%

65%

7.80%

11.70%

19.50%

Share of Commercial Vehicles 30% 19.50%

V/C Ratio 10% 6.50%

Economic criteria 15%

Settlement Performance Index (DPI) 40% 6.00%

Agricultural & Industrial Centers 30% 4.50%

No. of Tourist Centre 15% 2.25%

No. of Urban Centre 7.5% 1.13%

Administrative Centre 7.5% 1.13%

Connectivity considerations 15%

Per capita availability of NH and SH

Per capita availability of MDR and

ODR

60%

40%

9.00%

6.00%




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Social criteria 5%

Percentage of:

SC/ST population

BPL population

20%

20%

1.00%

1.00%

Per capita availability of:

Hospitals

Schools

Colleges

20%

20%

20%

1.00%

1.00%

1.00%

4.6.4.1. Screening process steps:

i. Traffic parameters were compiled link wise based on transport demand for year 2031

and rest of the parameters i.e. economic, connectivity and social criteria were compiled

at district level. Once the compilation was done at link and district level, data was

normalised to a scale of 10 based on observed and maximum value observed in the

range.

ii. The normalised data for each link was further multiplied with weights for each individual

parameter to obtain the composite score for each link.

iii. The individual scores of all the parameters were aggregated and summed for each link

to compute total score of the particular link.

iv. Links were then ranked according to highest to lowest score across the database.

v. Cumulative distances were computed for this sorted database links.

vi. In order to identify the final core network length the cut off length was evaluated

between 25,000 km and 32,000 km. The network was plotted on the GIS platform to

observe the accessibility and connectivity like Industrial Centres, Agricultural Mandi’s,

Quarries, Tourist Centres and Administrative Centres.

vii. It was observed during the screening process that the enormous length of ODRs

totalling more than 32,000 km in the link data was interfering in the screening process

Composite lengths obtained for Major District Road segments was not satisfactory.

viii. The experts decided to include only those ODRs in the screening process having length

of more than 15 km to qualify and compete with state highways and major district

roads. The combined length of SH and MDR in the State at present is not more than

15000 km. The target of about 22,000 km i.e. 40% of the major roads up to ODR level

will be a minimum core length needed by year 2031.

ix. The range of composite scores observed on National Highways varied between a

composite minimum score of 257 to highest 527. The scores achieved on SH were

between 130 and 348. The scores on MDR varied, between 122 and 304. Therefore, it

was decided to keep a minimum range of 130 for MDRs in line with scoring achieved on

State Highways. With the above screening process,100% NH and SH will be the part

core network and 5761 km will form part of the MDR network, which is appropriate

keeping in view the up-gradation needed in SH and MDR category in coming years.

The summary of ranges achieved on NH, SH & MDR is given in Table 4.11.

Table 4.11 RANGES OF SCORES ACHIEVED FOR SH & MDR CATEGORY

Category Range of Score

High Low

National Highways 527 257

State Highways 130 348

Major District Roads 122 304




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x. The selection of ODR was based on connectivity and accessibility to economic

settlements including the last mile connectivity and obtains contiguity of corridors in the

overall core network plan. A composite length of 3254 km as explained and identified

earlier by the consultants in this category is 10% of the overall length and has been

retained.

4.6.5. Strategic Core Network

A composite final core network has been developed by combining the road network of

Scenario (I) with the revised and finalised weightages and the additional network links

identified for Other District Roads. The proposed final core network of 24,095 km includes

all the National Highways (100%), State Highways (100%), MDR (80%) and ODR (10%).

The final core network identified has the following attributes:

- Has sufficient capacity to accommodate prevailing traffic

- Links UP with adjacent states or neighbouring countries with a view to provide external

economic linkages

- Connects all major urban and administrative centres

- Connects major industrial nodes, agricultural mandi, tourist centres and

- Connects remote/backward areas

- Includes all major freight corridors as commercial traffic is a major regional road user

benefiting the state economically

The summary of proposed core network and its evaluation is given in Table 4.12 and

pictorially presented in Figure 4.6 plot. The list and lengths of finalised core road network

for SH, MDR and ODR category are presented in Annexures B-4.2 to 4.4 and the scoring

achieved on SH and MDR category is presented in Table 4.13.

Table 4.12 SUMMARY OF FINAL CORE NETWORK

CATEGORY / HIERARCHY Total Length

(km)

Core Network Length

km %

National Highways 7,550 7,550 100%

State Highways 7,530 7,530 100%

Major District Roads 7,208 5,761 80%

Other District Roads 32,838 3,254 10%

Total 55,126 24,095 44%

CONNECTIVITY WITH MAJOR NODES Locations % Connectivity

Industrial Centers 94 100%

Agricultural Centers 205 100%

Quarries 32 100%

Tourist/Pilgrims 133 100%

Wild Life Sanctuaries 25 100%

Total Facilities (Nos.) 489 100%

All selected 4 & 6 lane roads (km) 3057 100%

Tale 4.13 SCORING ACHIEVED ON SH & MDR

SN Road name CAT District Length

(km) Score range

(A) STATE HIGHWAYS

1 KOKHRAJ TO HANDIA (OLD PORTION OF NH-2)

SH-8 KAUSHAMBI,ALLAHABAD 81 203-276

2 ETAH TUNDLA ROAD SH-31 FIROZABAD,ETAH 58 147-194

3 PANIPAT KHATIMA ROAD SH-12 MUZAFFAR NAGAR,BIJNOR 153 181-221

4 PILIBHIT PURANPUR LAKHIMPUR BALRAMPUR BASTI ROAD

SH-26 BALRAMPUR, SIDDHARTH NAGAR, BASTI

102 131-188

5 TIHRI PAUDHI RAMNAGAR MORADABAD ROAD

SH-41 MORADABAD 44 204-235

6 VARANASI BHADOHI ROAD SH-87 VARANASI, ST. RAVIDAS NAGAR 61 138-171

7 BAHRAICH BHINGA CHAUDHARIDEEH ROAD

SH-96A BAHRAICH, SHRAWASTI 39 152-162




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(km) Score range

8 SONAULI NAUTANWA GORAKHPUR BALLIA ROAD

SH-1 GORAKHPUR,DEORIA,BALLIA 156 163-348

9 AGRA BAH KACHAURAGHAT ROAD

SH-62 AGRA 71 207-248

10 MORADABAD HARIDWAR DEHRADOON ROAD

SH-49 MORADABAD,BIJNOR 63 213-251

11 GORAKHPUR MAHARAJGANJ ROAD

SH-81 GORAKHPUR, MAHARAJGANJ 33 139-191

12 MEERUT BULANDSHAHR BADAUN ROAD

SH-18 BULANDSHAHR, BADAUN 112 164-270

13 JALAUN BHIND ROAD SH-70 JALAUN 31 150-153

14 LUCKNOW GORAKHPUR ROAD VIA BADHALGANJ (RAM JANKI ROAD)

SH-72 BASTI,ST. KABIR NAGAR, GORAKHPUR, DEORIA

191 147-170

15 HAMIRPUR RATH GURSAHAYGANJ JHANSI ROAD

SH-42 HAMIRPUR, JHANSI 168 218-248

16 LUCKNOW - MOHAN - NANAMAU - BELA ETAWAH

SH-40 LUCKNOW, UNNAO, KANPUR, RAMABAI NAGAR, AURAIYA

164 173-223

17 PILIBHIT BAREILLY BHARATPUR ROAD

SH-33 BAREILLY,BADAUN,KANSHIRAM NAGAR,MAHAMAYA NAGAR,MATHURA

234 144-228

18 PALWAL TAAPAL ALIGARH STATE HIGHWAY

SH-22A ALIGARH 65 155-192

19 UNNAO KANPUR ROAD SH-58 UNNAO 16 189-217

20 FATEHPUR BABERU ATARRA NARAINI ROAD

SH-71 FATEHPUR,BANDA 117 160-219

21 DELHI HARIDWAR ROAD (MEERUT CITY PORTION)

SH-45 MEERUT 13 190-221

22 GARHMUKTESHWAR MEERUT BAGHAPAT SONIPAT ROAD

SH-14 GHAZIABAD,MEERUT,BAGHAPAT 96 152-187

23 DELHI KANPUR ROAD SH-22 GHAZIABAD 5 163-165

24 MUZAFFARNAGAR JANSATH MIRAPUR ROAD

SH-12A MUZAFFARNAGAR 29 203-221

25 MUZAFFARNAGAR SAHARANPUR ROAD

SH-59 MUZAFFARNAGAR,SAHARANPUR 54 172-212

26 PUKHRAYA GHATAMPUR BINDAKI ROAD

SH-46 KANPUR DEHAT,KANPUR,FATEHPUR

83 169-218

27 PALIYA SHAHJAHANPUR LUCKNOW ROAD

SH-25 LAKHIMPUR KHIRI,SHAHJAHANPUR,HARDOI,LUCKNOW

266 167-226

28 BILARAYA PANWARI MARG SH-21

LAKHIMPUR KHIRI,SITAPUR,HARDOI,KANNAUJ,AURAIYA,JALAUN,HAMIRPUR,MAHOBA

389 147-244

29 SISAIYA DHAURHARA NIGHASAN PALLIA PURANPUR ROAD

SH-101 KHERI 121 182-191

30 BIJNOR CHHAJALAT ROAD SH-76 BIJNOR,MORADABAD 65 185-242

31 ETAH SHIKOHABAD ROAD SH-85 ETAH,FIROZABAD 52 182-207

32 HAMIRPUR KALPI ROAD SH-91 HAMIRPUR,JALAUN 52 146-242

33 GARH SYANA BULANSHER ROAD SH-65 BULANDSHAHAR 37 188-211

34 GOLA SHAHJAHANPUR ROAD SH-93 KHERI,SHAHJAHAN PUR 59 183-198

35 ALLAHABAD GORAKHPUR ROAD SH-7 ALLAHABAD,JAUNPUR 107 170-191

36 BAABATPUR JAMALAPUR ROAD SH-98 VARANASI,JAUNPUR 28 167-176

37 LAKHIMPUR BIJUHA PALLIA DUDHAWA ROAD

SH-90 KHERI 92 193-200

38 HAAMIDPUR KUCHESAR ROAD SH-100 GAUTAMBUDH NAGAR,BULANDSHAHAR,GHAZIABAD

100 150-187

39 MORADABAD CHANDAUSI BADAUN FARRUKHABAD ROAD

SH-43 MORADABAD,BADAUN,SHAHJAHANPUR,FARRUKHABAD

162 149-202

40 FARENDA DHANI NAUGARH ROAD

SH-1A MAHARAJGANJ,SIDDHARTH NAGAR,BALRAMPUR,GONDA

118 130-197

41 BAHRAICH SITAPUR ROAD SH-30B BAHRAICH,SITAPUR 90 146-186

42 ETWAH MAINPURI ROAD SH-83 ETAWAH,MAINPURI 53 194-237

43 LIPULAKE BHIND ROAD SH-29 PILIBHIT,SHAHJAHANPUR,FARRUKHABAD,MAINPURI

224 152-208

44 BADAUN BILSI BAHJOI BIJNOR ROAD

SH-51 BADAUN,MORADABAD,J.P. NAGAR,BIJNOR

211 161-197




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(km) Score range

45 UTRAULA FAIZABAD SULTANPUR ROAD

SH-9 BALRAMPUR,GONDA,FAIZABAD,SULTANPUR

75 130-209

46 LUMBINI BASTI JAUNPUR MIRZAPUR DUDDHI ROAD

SH-5 AMBEDKARNAGAR,JAUNPUR,ST. RAVIDAS NAGAR,MIRZAPUR,SONEBHADRA

241 138-186

47 FATEHGARH GURSAHAIGANJ ROAD

SH-29A FARRUKHABAD ,KANNAUJ,HARDOI 64 150-208

48 NAHTAUR NOORPUR AMROHA JOYA ROAD

SH-77 BIJNOR,J.P. NAGAR 61 172-202

49 ALIGARH RAYA MATHURA ROAD SH-80 ALIGARH 40 154-157

50 BASTI MEDHAWAL KAPTANGANJ TAMKUHI ROAD

SH-64 BASTI,ST. KABIR NAGAR,GORAKHPUR,MAHARAJGANJ,KUSHINAGAR

137 134-175

51 SHIKOHABAD BHOGAON MAINPURI KURAWALI ROAD

SH-84 FIROZABAD,MAINPURI 62 159-219

52 MURATGANJ RAJAPUR MANJHANPUR ROAD

SH-94 KAUSHAMBI 45 169-172

53 MAWANA KHURD TO BEHSUMA (REMAINING PART OF MEERUT PAURI)

SH-47 MEERUT 21 155-192

54 MAYA TANDA ROAD SH-30A FAIZABAD,AMBEDKARNAGAR 34 152-209

55 BILGRAM - MALLAWAN UANNO ALLHABAD MARG

SH-38 HARDOI,UNNAO,RAE BAREILLY 135 186-209

56 CHANDAUSI DEWAI ALIGARH AGRA ROAD

SH-39 AGRA 81 208-221

57 BANDA BABERU KAMASIN RAJAPUR MARG

SH-92 BANDA,CHITRAKOOT 89 176-210

58 CHAUBEPUR BELA ROAD SH-68 KANPUR NAGAR,KANPUR DEHAT 48 178-202

59 SITAPUR BAHRAICH GONDA FAIZABAD ROAD

SH-30 BAHRAICH,GONDA,FAIZABAD,AMBEDKARNAGAR

187 150-212

60 SIKANDARPUR REWATI BERIYA LALGANJ ROAD

SH-1B BALLIA 68 164-167

61 LUCKNOW MANJHIGHAT ROAD SH-36 JAUNPUR,GHAZIPUR,LUCKNOW 70 169-205

62 AZAMGARH DOHRIGHAT ROAD SH-66 AZAMGARH 43 158-162

63 SARAIRANI JAUNPUR ROAD SH-66A AZAMGARH,JAUNPUR 41 159-254

64 NANPARA SHANKARPUR LALPUR FATUAPUR HAJURPUR ROAD

SH-96A SHRAVASTI 16 152-162

65 JIWANATHPUR KANCHANPUR NAUGARH ROAD

SH-97 MIRZAPUR,CHANDAULI 90 162-337

66 BAHRAICH BANDA ROAD SH-13E BARABANKI,RAEBARELI 117 186-203

67 KACCHA ROAD TO CHOUBEPUR VIA KAPSETHI BAABATPUR

SH-98A VARANASI 62 167-178

68 LUCKNOW SULTANPUR AZAMGARH BALLIA MARG

SH-34 SULTANPUR,JAUNPUR,AZAMGARH,MAU,BALLIA

192 157-184

69 AMROHA KAILASA PAKWARA ROAD

SH-78 JYOTIBA PHULE NAGAR 22 156-161

70 GHAZIPUR AZAMGARH ROAD SH-67 GHAZIPUR,MAU,AZAMGARH 55 153-181

71 KANPUR HAMIRPUR SAGAR ROAD

SH-17 KANPUR NAGAR 5 174-260

72 VARANASI ADALAPUR CHUNAR KACHHAWA ROAD

SH-74 VARANASI,MIRZAPUR 47 161-168

73 DUMARIYAGANJ DEURUWA ROAD SH-75 SIDDHARTH NAGAR 41 147-161

74 MAINPURI KURAWALI ROAD SH-84A MAINPURI 18 194-200

75 KHURJA PAHASU CHHATARI ROAD

SH-63 BULANDSHAHAR 35 180-183

76 BANSI MEDHAWAL KHALILABAD ROAD

SH-88 SIDDHARTH NAGAR,SANT KABIR NAGAR

50 140-145

77 DEORIA KASYA PADRAINA ROAD SH-79 DEORIA,KUSHINAGAR 34 159-201

78 BHARATGANJ PRATAPPUR ROAD SH-102 ALLAHABAD 101 171-286

79 CHANDAULI SAKALDEEHA SAIDPUR ROAD

SH-69 CHANDAULI 31 184-228

80 NANPARA SHANKARPUR FATEHPUR ROAD

SH-26A SHRAVASTI 16 150-150

81 GORAKHPUR MAHARAJGANJ ROAD

SH-86 MAHARAJGANJ 30 137-137

82 MANAURI SARAI AKIL KAUSHAMBI ROAD

SH-95 KAUSHAMBI 36 165-167

83 TADIGHAT WARA ROAD SH-99 GHAZIPUR 40 178-182




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(km) Score range

(B) MAJOR DISTRICT ROADS

1 MOHANLALGANJ MAURAWA UNNAO ROAD

MDR-52C LUCKNOW,UNNAO 70 146-248

2 NANAU DADOO MARG MDR-82W ALIGARH 30 142-143

3 KALYANPUR SHIVLI ROAD MDR-78C KANPUR NAGAR,KANPUR DEHAT 40 152-250

4 ARCH GURSRAY MAU RANIPUR ROAD

MDR-31B JHANSI 70 191-198

5 FATEHGARH CCHIBRAMAU ROAD MDR-9W FARRUKHABAD,KANNAUJ 25 174-175

6 SHAHABAD BILARI ROAD MDR-154W RAMPUR,MORADABAD 25 146-165

7 DATIYANA CHANDPUR NOORPUR ROAD

MDR-30W BIJNOR 27 154-171

8 RAMAIPUR-SARH-JAHANABAD ROAD

MDR-82C KANPUR NAGAR 27 154-165

9 HUSAINGANJ HATHGAON AIRAYAN ALLIPUR JOT ROAD

MDR-81C FATEHPUR 48 133-155

10 LAKHIMPUR SHARDAPUR DASHERDHA MARG

MDR-75C KHERI 32 153-163

11 SAMBHAL JOYA ROAD MDR-157W MORADABAD,J.P NAGAR 28 148-151

12 BINDKI LALAULI ROAD MDR-15C FATEHPUR 38 133-155

13 BAAH UDI ROAD MDR-138W AGRA,ETAWAH 34 172-186

14 KAIRANA KHATOULI ROAD MDR-22W MUZAFFARNAGAR 58 139-167

15 GORAKHPUR KHAJNI SIKRIGANJ ROAD

MDR-49E GORAKHPUR 31 130-140

16 KHURJA JEVAR ROAD MDR-70W BULANDSHAHAR,G.B NAGAR 33 158-158

17 SANDILA RASULABAD CHAKALVANSHI ROAD

MDR-31C HARDOI,UNNAO 58 208-225

18 DEORIA HATA ROAD MDR-21E DEORIA,KUSHI NAGAR 30 132-140

19 KULPAHAD NAUGANO MARG MDR-17B MAHOBA 31 168-181

20 GHAZIPUR BALLIA ROAD MDR-167E GHAZIPUR,BALLIA 34 155-197

21 LAKHIMPUR MAIGALGANJ MARG MDR-14C KHERI 47 153-163

22 LALITPUR MAHRONI MARG MDR-30B LALITPUR 37 172-182

23 BASTI MEHSON MAHULI ROAD MDR-93E BASTI,SANT KABIR NAGAR 37 131-137

24 KARNAILGANJ VILSAR NAWABGANJ MARG

MDR-46E GONDA 57 148-153

25 ETAH GANJDUNDWARA ROAD MDR-90W ETAH,KANSHIRAM NAGAR 34 133-137

26 KORAANV DEVGHAT DRAMANDGANJ ROAD

MDR-146E ALLAHABAD 30 144-256

27 BIDHUNA KISHANI ROAD MDR-134W AURAIYYA,ETAWAH,MAINPURI 36 148-196

28 FATEHPUR MUZAFFARABAD KALSIYA ROAD

MDR-121W SAHARANPUR 21 134-157

29 SAHARANPUR NAKUD GANGOH THANA BHAWAN

MDR-147W SAHARANPUR,MUZAFFARNAGAR 69 141-145

30 AKBARPUR KAADIPUR CHANDA PATTI ROAD

MDR-113E SULTANPUR,PRATAPGARH 49 142-153

31 KUNDAH SUJAANGANJ MACCHALISHAHAR MADIYAHU ROAD

MDR-151E JAUNPUR 95 139-140

32 KASYA TAMKUHI ROAD MDR-58E KUSHI NAGAR 30 140-145

33 MUHAMMADABAD MADHUBAN BELLTHRA ROAD

MDR-94E MAU,BALLIA 58 130-133

34 BHEEKHAMPUR DEORIA RUDRAPUR KARKOL ROAD

MDR-152E DEORIA 47 130-136

35 SORAANV PHOOLPUR HANDIYA ROAD


36 HALIYAPUR BELAWAI MARG MDR-66E SULTANPUR 95 150-262

37 KALPI UGWA RATH MARG MDR-19B JALAUN,HAMIRPUR 49 196-202

38 MAHRONI GADORA MADANPU ROAD

MDR-35B LALITPUR 47 172-182

39 BILGRAM SANDI ALLAHGANJ ROAD

MDR-26C HARDOI,SHAHJAHAN PUR 62 146-254

40 MUSKARA MAHOBA CHARKHARI MARG

MDR-15B MAHOBA 50 168-181

41 BIHAR BAGWANTNAGAR BAXER ROAD

MDR-60C UNNAO 23 146-146

42 SAURIKH TIRWA THATHIYA MAKANPUR ROAD

MDR-160W KANNAUJ 50 141-148

43 MEERUT PARIKSHAT AASIFABAD ROAD

MDR-42W MEERUT 30 134-157




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(km) Score range

44 BULANDSHAHAR ANUPSHAHAR DIBAI ROAD

MDR-58W BULANDSHAHAR 58 152-169

45 BANDA - NARAINI - KALINJAR MARG

MDR-11B BANDA 58 238-273

46 BIJNOR NAGLA NAZIBABAD ROAD MDR-93W BIJNOR 39 154-171

47 ETAH ALIGANJ KAYAMGANJ ROAD

MDR-98W FARRUKHABAD,ETAH 69 133-150

48 GONDA UTRAULA MARG MDR-18E GONDA,BALRAMPUR 49 144-151

49 MUSKARA MAUDAHA KAPSA BANDA MARG

MDR-10B HAMIRPUR,MAHOBA 62 195-304

50 AMROHA DHANORA KANTH ROAD MDR-150W J.P NAGAR,MORADABAD 44 145-147

51 BURAHANPUR DEEDARGANJ BARDAH ROAD

MDR-97E AZAMGARH 67 130-240

52 JAHANABAD AMAULI CHANDPUR JAFARGANJ ROAD

MDR-35C FATEHPUR 43 133-155

53 SITAPUR KASTA GOLA MARG MDR-76C KHERI 40 153-163

54 IMILIYA BHIKAMPUR CHAKIYA ROAD

MDR-169E MIRZAPUR 23 155-213

55 AGRA SHAMSHABAD RAJAKHEDA ROAD

MDR-113W AGRA 26 166-178

56 JALAUN KOCH ROAD MDR-27B JALAUN 23 210-214

57 MUGHALSARAI CHAKIA ROAD MDR-65E CHANDAULI 25 194-202

58 KATRA JALALABAD ROAD MDR-5W SHAHJAHAN PUR 35 142-150

59 MAWANA KITHOUR HAPUR ROAD MDR-152W MEERUT 49 134-157

60 KAPTANGANJ HATA GAURI BAZAR RUDRAPUR ROAD

MDR-25E KUSHI NAGAR,DEORIA 58 130-256

61 NOORPUR SYOHARA THAKURDWARA ROAD

MDR-26W BIJNOR,MORADABAD 52 138-157

62 ALIGANJ PATIYALI GANJ DUDWARA SORON MARG

MDR-45W ETAH,KANSHIRAM NAGAR 62 133-137

63 MAU YUSUFPUR ROAD MDR-41E MAU,GHAZIPUR 44 150-153

64 PRATAPGARH JETHWARA LALGOPALGANJ ROAD

MDR-125E PRATAPGARH 42 141-257

65 GULAWATHI SYANA BUGRAASI ROAD

MDR-50W BULANDSHAHAR 18 152-169

66 ALIGARH RAMGHAT ROAD MDR-105W ALIGARH,BULANDSHAHAR 41 134-160

67 BABUL YAKOOBPUR FAFOOND DIBIYAPUR ROAD

MDR-151W AURAIYYA 50 146-153

68 MATHURA GOVERDHAN DEEG ROAD

MDR-94W MATHURA 28 148-172

69 BANI TO MOHANLALGANJ GOSAIGANJ ROAD

MDR-89C LUCKNOW 33 153-262

70 BALLIA GARHAWAR NAGRA VARAULI ROAD

MDR-150E BALLIA 60 136-250

71 SERSA MANAKAPUR SADULLAHNAGAR ROAD

MDR-42E GONDA,BALRAMPUR 64 144-151

72 CHANDRIKA DEVI B.K.T.KUMHRAWA BABAGAN


73 BARELLIY BISALPUR ROAD MDR-149W BAREILLY,PILIBHIT 41 132-175

74 DELHOOPUR RANIGANJ PATTI KOHDAUR ROAD

MDR-164E PRATAPGARH 61 141-257

75 MATHURA VRANDAVAN MONT NAUJHEEL ROAD


76 RAMPUR SHAHBAD ROAD MDR-53W RAMPUR 32 147-177

77 GUDHANI BARHAJ RUDRAPUR ROAD

MDR-78E DEORIA 19 130-136

78 BABRALA RAJPURA KESARPUR GAWAN ROAD

MDR-162W BADAUN 24 132-242

79 MURADABAD SAMBHAL BAHJOI ROAD

MDR-69W MORADABAD 31 143-158

80 MENHDAWAL RUDHAULI DUMRIYAGANJ ROAD

MDR-34E SANT KABIR NAGAR,BASTI,SIDDHARTH NAGAR

52 192-226

81 MEERUT BADAUT ROAD MDR-34W MEERUT,BAGPAT 47 134-219

82 SIRSA MEJA KORAANV ROAD MDR-121E ALLAHABAD 32 144-256

83 AZAMGARH MASUT MIRZAPUR BELWAI ROAD


84 LALITPUR DEVGARH MARG MDR-39B LALITPUR 32 172-182

85 RAMPUR SWAR BAJPUR ROAD MDR-49W RAMPUR 41 147-177




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(km) Score range

86 DATAGANJ USAHAIT ROAD MDR-25W BADAUN 30 132-242

87 MASAURA AONLA RAMNAGAR ROAD

MDR-37W BAREILLY 30 142-152

88 RATH JALALPUR ROAD MDR-41B HAMIRPUR 37 198-300

89 BENIGANJ SANDILA MARG MDR-27C HARDOI 30 147-151

90 BIJNOR MAWANA MEERUT ROAD MDR-101W BIJNOR,MUZAFFARNAGAR 14 146-158

91 FARRUKHABAD KAYAMGANJ ROAD

MDR-110W FARRUKHABAD 40 133-134

92 KARWI PAHADI RAJAPUR ROAD MDR-26B CHITRAKOOT DHAM 34 149-151

93 BISALPUR PUWAYAN ROAD MDR-62W PILIBHIT,SHAHJAHAN PUR 50 134-229

94 NAZIBABAD VIA NADKAR BUNDAKI ROAD

MDR-161W BIJNOR 21 154-171

95 JALALABAD BARDAH KALIYABAD ROAD

MDR-106E GHAZIPUR 28 148-154

96 SHIKOHABAD BAAH ROAD MDR-77W FIROZABAD,AGRA 30 130-258

97 BARABANKI FATEHPUR MARG MDR-11C BARABANKI 30 169-174

98 TINDWARI MAILANI JASPURA SUMERPUR ROAD

MDR-40B BANDA,HAMIRPUR 60 168-204

99 RASDA NAGARA TURTIPAR ROAD MDR-17E BALLIA 31 136-250

100 LUCKNOW NAGRAM NIGOHA MARG


101 BELHA PATTI DHAKVA ROAD MDR-98E PRATAPGARH 45 141-257

102 KARCHHANA KODHARGHAT ROAD


103 SIRSAGANJ KISHANI ROAD MDR-126W FIROZABAD,MAINPURI 58 132-166

104 LUCKNOW KURSI - MAHMUDABAD MARG

MDR-77C LUCKNOW,BARABANKI,SITAPUR 54 160-174

105 PADRAINA KHADDA ROAD MDR-13E KUSHI NAGAR 13 140-145

106 HAIDURGARH RAMSANEHI GHAT MARG

MDR-3C BARABANKI 17 169-174

107 BHITORA SHEESHGARH ROAD MDR-29W BAREILLY 26 142-152

108 KOSI NANDGAON GOVARDHAN SAUNK ROAD


109 KHATOULI MORNA ROAD MDR-18W MUZAFFARNAGAR 35 139-167

110 PURKAZI LUKSAR ROAD MDR-6W MUZAFFARNAGAR 15 139-167

111 SAINYA IRADATNAGAR SHAMSHABAD ROAD

MDR-130W AGRA 39 166-178

112 MUZAFFARNAGAR THANA BHAWAN ROAD

MDR-10W MUZAFFARNAGAR 28 139-167

113 BAKEWAR BHARTHNA BIDHUNA ROAD

MDR-142W ETAWAH 38 184-191

114 KHAJNI MAALHANPUR DASHVATPUR ROAD

MDR-163E GORAKHPUR 35 130-140

115 NANPARA SANKARPUR LALPUR RAJAPUR HUJURPUR ROAD

MDR-165E BAHRAICH,SHRAVASTI 59 222-237

116 MORADABAD TANDA DADIYAAL ROAD

MDR-65W MORADABAD,RAMPUR 24 139-151

117 ETAUJA MAHONA KUMHARAWA KURSI DEVA CHINHAT ROAD

MDR-88C LUCKNOW,BARABANKI 51 155-176

118 CHITWAMAU ERWA ROAD MDR-13W KANNAUJ,AURAIYYA 31 142-153

119 KOTAWALI NAHATAUR ROAD MDR-85W BIJNOR 12 154-171

120 BISAULI KACCHALA KASGANJ ROAD

MDR-61W BADAUN 42 132-242

121 SAIDPUR CHIRAIYAKOT ROAD MDR-166E GHAZIPUR 28 148-154

122 KIRAWALI KAGARAUL KHERAGARH SAINYA ROAD

MDR-127W AGRA 37 166-178

123 SADABAD JALESAR AWAAGARH ROAD

MDR-106W MAHAMAYA NAGAR,ETAH 47 130-169

124 MATHURA SADABAD MARG MDR-102W MATHURA,MAHAMAYA NAGAR 40 150-213

125 MODINAGAR HAPUR ROAD MDR-148W GHAZIABAD 22 137-140

126 DASNA DHOLANA GULAWATI ROAD

MDR-155W GHAZIABAD 27 137-140

127 KASGANJ ATRAULI ROAD MDR-86W KANSHIRAM NAGAR,ALIGARH 46 138-140

128 BUDAUN DATAGANJ ROAD MDR-74W BADAUN 26 132-242

129 ROBERTSGANJ PANNUGARH KHALIYARI ROAD

MDR-160E SONBHADRA 48 146-148

130 MUBARKPUR JIYANPUR BILRIYAGANJ MAHARAJGANJ





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(km) Score range

ROAD

131 SIKANDRA JHIJHAK RASOOLABAD ROAD

MDR-47C KANPUR DEHAT 41 167-281

132 MURDHWA MYORPUR BABHANI ROAD

MDR-77E SONBHADRA 37 146-148

133 LAKHIMPUR MOHAMMADI MARG MDR-86C KHERI 44 153-163

134 PADRAINA KUBERSTHAN TURKPATTI ROAD

MDR-161E KUSHI NAGAR 25 140-145

135 MEJA KODHARGHAT KHERI ROAD MDR-162E ALLAHABAD 36 144-256

136 NANAUTA DEVBAND MANGLORE ROAD

MDR-2W SAHARANPUR 35 134-157

137 BILHAUR MAKANPUR VISHDHAN RASOOLABAD

MDR-85C KANPUR NAGAR,KANPUR DEHAT 42 152-250

138 SIRATHU SARAI AKIL ROAD MDR-145E KAUSHAMBI 39 136-136

139 BILASPUR MILAK JANAM SWAR ROAD

MDR-153W RAMPUR 26 147-177

140 LALGANJ KALAKAANKAR ROAD MDR-102E PRATAPGARH 40 141-257

141 JIWLI DEVGAON MEHNAJPUR AUDIHAR ROAD

MDR-153E AZAMGARH,GHAZIPUR 51 145-239

142 BULANDSHAHAR GARH MUKTESHWAR ROAD

MDR-117W GHAZIABAD 14 137-140

143 CHHATA SHERAGARH BAJNA GOMAT MARG


144 HARDOI PIHANI CHAPARTALA MARG

MDR-43C HARDOI 43 147-151

145 PALLIA DUDHWA CHANDAN CHOWKI MARG

MDR-6C KHERI 15 153-163

4.7. IDENTIFICATION OF MAJOR TRAVEL CORRIDORS

The traffic assignment obtained from the transport demand model exercise was plotted on

the core network to identify major traffic carrying potential corridors composite of

homogenous sections of SH, MDR and ODR.

i. The assigned volumes by year 2031 were plotted in the 4 ranges of 0 - 10,000 PCU,

10,000 - 20000, 20,000 - 30,000 PCU & 30,000 PCU upwards.

ii. Homogeneous sections connecting major economic centres across the State on the

entire core network were identified.

iii. 45 Primary Core Network Corridors were identified from this exercise totalling 6474

km, which is 12% of the overall length and 27% of the core network length

recommended for consideration and implementation.

iv. The balance core network by category was distributed in the following manner to be

taken up for phasing, mobilisation of resources and implementation schedule.

- Five major broad groupings were considered and finalised in consultation with

UPPWD in order of priority

- First Group constituted composite primary corridors having aggregate lengths

more than 50 km including individual category wise roads (SH, MDR, ODR)

having lengths more than 50 km.

- Second group was constituted with balance primary corridors with achieved

length less than 50 km.

- Similarly, 3 separate groups (Third, Fourth & Fifth) were created for category wise

individual roads (SH, MDR, ODR) with lengths less than 50 km.

The forecast ADT by year 2031 on the identified corridors has been plotted and is pictorially

presented in Figure 4.7.




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ISSUES PERTAINING TO DESIGN OF PAVEMENTS

5. ISSUES PERTAINING TO DESIGN OF PAVEMENT

5.1. IRC CODES ADOPTED

The capacity norms of roads of various carriageway widths and the design of pavement are

the basis for road improvements. The Consultants have adopted the following IRC Codes in

formulating the proposals:

Capacity norms: IRC:64-1990

Flexible Pavement Design: IRC:37-2001

The consultants have adopted IRC:37-2001 for costing of core network since the study

commenced in year 2011. Since IRC:37-2012 has been issued in middle of study, a

comparative analysis of cost has also been done.

The Draft Final Report of the study was submitted by the Consultant in the month of

May, 2013. A presentation was made by the Consultant to a gathering of eminent engineers

of the PWD on the 11th September, 2013. Some of the participants raised the following

issues:

i. The basis for assuming a rate of growth of traffic of 7.5 per cent for Economic Analysis

should be given.

ii. The Flexible Pavement Design Guidelines have recently been revised by the IRC, and

these recommend the adoption of stabilised layers in the flexible pavement. An

economy of about 30 per cent is thus possible, if these guidelines are followed.

iii. The Vehicle Damage Factor (VDF) of 3.5 appeared to be too low compared to the

extent of overloading taking place on UP’s roads.

The Consultants have carefully examined these responses and furnish the clarifications

hereunder:

5.2. ADOPTION OF FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT DESIGN GUIDELINES IRC:37-2012 INSTEAD

OF IRC:37-2001

It has been clarified in para 5.1 that the consultant has based his proposals on the basis of

a flexible pavement designed on the basis of IRC:37-2001.

However, during our presentation to the steering committee in September 2011, it was

observed by members that adoption of the recently revised flexible pavement design

guidelines (IRC:37-2012) would result in economy. Consultants have evaluated and

considered various alternatives for the design of a new pavement and the details are

enclosed in Annexure B-5.1.

The following conclusions can be drawn:

1. The revised IRC:37-2012 itself admits that the recommendations are not based on

Indian study and research, and are based on work carried out & undertaken in the

countries abroad. The data on performance of the work carried out in India is limited.

2. There is a dearth of Contractors in the country who have experience in soil-cement

stabilisation. Only L&T have a single-pass soil stabiliser. Other contractors have to use

improvised tools like agricultural tractor towed rippers, tillers and rotavators, and they

do not have experience even in this work methodology. The site engineers will have to

be very careful in controlling the quantity of cement, moisture content, compaction and

curing.

Though the initial cost of a new two lane pavement designed on the basis of IRC:37-2012,




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P a g e | 5-2

is 30% cheaper than the conventional design using IRC:37-2001, the best option is a

cement concrete pavement, whose whole life cycle cost is the lowest, as can be seen in

Annexure B-5.2. Concrete Road is a well-established technology even in India. It saves the

consumption of stone aggregates and is totally maintenance-free. When DPRs are

prepared, all these issues will be examined in detail and the best option will emerge.

5.3. VEHICLE DAMAGE FACTOR

The following values of VDF have been adopted in the design:

Com. Veh/Day VDF

150–1500 3.5

More than 1500 4.5

These are as per IRC:37-2012. When DPRs are prepared, axle load spectrum will be

established for each road and appropriate VDF will be arrived at for use in design. For

Master Plan purposes, the values recommended by IRC:37-2012 are appropriate at this

stage for preparing the budgetary estimates.




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COSTS OF ROAD IMPROVEMENT TO

CORE NETWORK

6. COST OF ROAD IMPROVEMENTS OF CORE NETWORK

6.1. CORE NETWORK LENGTH

Core Network comprises of SH, MDR and ODR as per the details given in Annexure B-4.2

to 4.4 in Chapter 4. The methodology adopted for identification Core Network has been

discussed in the Report submitted in November 2013. The length of the strategic core road

network is 16,554 km excluding National Highways. The total core length will be 24,095 km.

National Highways 7,550 Km

State Highways 7,530 Km

Major District Roads 5,761 Km

Other District Roads 3,254 Km

Total 24,095 Km

Some of the State Highways have been converted to NHs and hence have been deducted

from the length of Core Network. The new NHs measuring 882 km have been declared

recently. These roads have been converted to NH by upgrading SHs, MDRs and ODRs. As

26 Km length of NH is overlapping with old NH, the net length converted to NH is 856 Km.

Details of new NHs are given in Table 6.1. The State at present has 7550 km of network

under the NH category.

Table 6.1 NEW NATIONAL HIGHWAYS DECLARED IN UP STATE

NH District Road Name Category Length (Km)

Total Length

NH-730

Pilibhit Pilibhit Basti Road SH-26 52

519

Shahjahanpur Pilibhit Basti Road SH-26 19

Kheeri Pilibhit Basti Road SH-26 105

Bahraich Pilibhit Basti Road SH-26 60

Shrawasti Pilibhit Basti Road SH-26 36

Balrampur Pilibhit Basti Road SH-26 14

Fhrenda Jarawal Marg SH-1A 60

Siddharth Nagar Brijmanganj Uska Road VR 6

Fhrenda Jarawal Marg SH-1A 65

Maharajganj

Fharenda Brijmanganj ODR-22 19

Farinda maharjganj SH-86 30

Gorakhpur Maharajgnaj Nichlaul SH-81 22

Basti Mehdawal Tumkuhi SH-64 9

Kushinagar Basti Mehdawal Tumkuhi SH-64 22

NH-730A

Kheeri

Lakhimpur Maigalganj Marg MDR-14 6

110

Aurangabad Barbar Dulhapur Kisann Marg ODR-14 11

Mohammadi Barbar Jahanikheda Marg ODR-2 20

Mohammadi Punwayan Marg ODR-8 11

Shahjahanpur

Puwayan Mohammadi Road ODR-9 10

Bisalpur Puwayan Road MDR-62 22

Banda Puranpur Road ODR-1 17

Pilibhit Banda Puranpur Road ODR-45 6

Banda Puranpur Road ODR-21 7

NH-330A

Faizabad Faizabad Rae Bareilly Marg SH-15 42

109 Sultanpur Faizabad Rae Bareilly Marg SH-15 31

Rae Bareilly Faizabad Rae Bareilly Marg SH-15 36

NH-931 Pratapgarh

Jagdispur Gauriganj Amethi Pratapgarh Road MDR-154E 22

84 Sultanpur

Jagdispur Gauriganj Amethi Pratapgarh Road MDR-154E 19




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NH District Road Name Category Length (Km)

Total Length

Gauriganj Musafirkhana ODR 23

Common with NH-731 NH 20

NH-931A

Rae Bareilly Jais Salon Marg MDR-8 30

60 Jayas Jagdispur Marg ODR-18 4

Sultanpur Jayas Jagdispur Marg ODR 20

Common with NH-330a NH-330A 6

GRAND TOTAL 882

i. There are a few roads in the Core Network, which are in the control of other agencies

or presently being constructed. These road lengths have to be deducted from the length

of Core Network.

ii. Out of 7530 km of SH, UP State Highway Authority (UPSHA) is already constructing a

length of 485 km.

6.2. TYPES OF IMPROVEMENTS PROPOSED

6.2.1. Removal of deficiencies

There are various deficiencies in the roads identified in Core Network and they need to be

addressed to so as to bring the roads to match the needs of a safe, efficient and cost-

effective transport system within a span of the next 20 years. The main improvements to be

taken up are discussed below:

6.2.2. Capacity Augmentation

Where the present pavement width is inadequate, congestion, delays and high vehicle

operating costs are caused. Therefore, the main emphasis should be to widen the

carriageway to match the needs of traffic. When implementing this programme other

deficiencies such as widening/ reconstruction of weak and narrow cross-drainage structures

and geometric improvements shall be taken up. Cost of minor bridges with waterway upto

60 m has been included. Major bridges with waterway above 60 m have been separately

listed.

As regards capacity augmentation, the following criteria shall be adopted:

i. All SHs shall have a minimum carriageway width of two lanes. If traffic warrants, some

sections can have a four-lane carriageway. Particularly, the sections connecting District

Headquarters to Lucknow shall have a four-lane carriageway.

ii. Depending upon the needs of traffic, MDRs shall be widened to two lanes or two lanes

with paved shoulders or four lane roads. As traffic volume is high in all MDRs,

carriageways of two-lanes or more have been provided.

6.2.3. Replacement of railway level crossing by ROBs

All level crossings with a TVU (Train Vehicle Units = No. of trains x No. of vehicles per day)

of greater than 1,00,000 shall be replaced by ROBs.

6.2.4. Replacement of Pontoon Bridges by RCC bridges

There are several Pontoon Bridges which need to be replaced by RCC bridges.

6.3. ESTIMATES FOR ROAD IMPROVEMENT WORKS

6.3.1. Typical Estimates

The costing of improvement works has been done on the basis of typical estimates. For

road works, cost has been worked out per Km. For bridges, the cost has been based on

rate per sq. m using the costs as per recent sanctioned works in U.P.




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6.3.2. Road Widening and Strengthening Schemes

Broad cross-sections of the road improvements (widening / strengthening) proposed are

presented as Figures 6.1 to 6.11.

Fig. 6.1 1-Lane to 4-Lane Road (Without Paved Shoulder)

Fig. 6.2 1.5-Lane to 4-Lane Road (Without Paved Shoulder)


Fig. 6.4 4-Lane to Strengthened 4-Lane Road (Without Paved Shoulder)


Fig. 6.6 1-Lane to 2-Lane Road (With Paved Shoulder)

Fig. 6.7 1.5-Lane to 2-Lane Road (Without Paved Shoulder)

Fig. 6.8 1.5-Lane to 2-Lane Road (With Paved Shoulder)

Fig. 6.9 2-Lane to Strengthened 2-Lane Road (Without Paved Shoulder)

Fig. 6.10 2-Lane to Strengthened 2-Lane Road (With Paved Shoulder)

Fig. 6.11 New 4-Lane Road (Without Paved Shoulder)

The pavement thickness and composition for above sections have been worked out as per

IRC: 37-2001 for a CBR value of 5 (typical for the alluvial silt of UP) and traffic as

appropriate. It may be mentioned that the pavement thickness and composition suggested

are similar to the designs being adopted in UP.

6.3.3. Rates

The rates of construction materials and mixes adopted are as given in Table 6.2. The rates

for various items of works have been arrived at on the basis of values received from UP

PWD.




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Table 6.2 BASIC RATE OF MATERIALS

Description Unit Rate (Rs)

1. Clearing and Grubbing Road Land Sqm 3.26

2. Removal of Unserviceable Soil with Disposal upto 1000 metres Cum 44.00

3. Compacting original ground supporting embankment Cum 34.00

4. Cutting of trees including cutting of trunks, branches and removal LS 20,00,000.00

5. Excavation in soil using Hydraulic Excavator and Tippers with disposal upto 1000 m

Cum 44.00

6. Surface drain in soil Cum 143.20

7. Construction of Embankment with Material obtained from Borrowpits Cum 164.00

8. Construction of subgrade and earthen shoulders Cum 198.00

9. Scarifying Existing Bituminous Surface to a depth of 50 mm by Mechanical Means

Sqm 4.00

10. Granular Sub-Base with Close Graded Material (Table:- 400-1) by Mix in Place method

Cum 2864.00

11. Wet Mix Macadam Cum 3291.00

12. Brick Edging 30cm wide Sqm 460.38

13. Prime Coat Sqm 37.00

14. Tack Coat Sqm 17.00

15. Dense Graded Bituminous Macadam (DBM) Cum 10476.00

16. Bituminous Concrete (BC) Cum 11656.00

Other items of CD works which are considered are:

1. Widening of existing RCC Hume Pipes Ls 6,00,000

2. Construction of RCC culvert, 5 m Span Ls 10,00,000

3. Construction of 1000 m NP-3 RCC Hume pipe culvert No 3,40,000

4. Road marking with hot applied Thermo-Plastic Compound with reflectorized Glass Beeds for two edge lines of 15 cm width and centre-line broken lines of 10 cm width.

Sq m 720

5. Traffic signs and other road appurtenances (a) Retro-reflectorized traffic signs.

(Quantities taken as per required in 10 Kms)

1. Mandatory Sign Boards No. 8,000.00 2. Information Sign Boards No. 8,000.00 3. Caution Signs No. 5,000.00 4. Road Delineators No. 1,800.00 5. Bollards for Noses of Central Verge No. 12,000.00 6. Triangular sign with cluster of reflectors No. 4,000.00 7. Overhead Signs (Cantilevers) No. 3,00,000.00 8. Cat’s eye No. 800.00 (b) Kilometer, Hectometer Stones and Boundary Pillars LS 2,00,000.00

6.3.4. Unit Cost of Widening and Strengthening

The following option for widening has been considered:

New Carriageway will be of flexible pavement and existing flexible pavement will be

widened and strengthened by bituminous overlays. Where there is no requirement of

widening, the existing pavement is strengthened with bituminous overlays. In the above

options, the new carriageway, where required, is proposed by the side of the existing

carriageway which is retained and suitably strengthened.

The cost of widening includes provision for cross-drainage structures, median construction,

and land acquisition in 4-laning projects, signage’s and road marking. In the estimate

bituminous surfacing of existing pavement is proposed to be dismantled and a profile

correction course of 75 mm of WMM (average thickness) is to be provided before

constructing overlays. The existing pavement is considered as equivalent to GSB layer

when it is to be strengthened.




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6.3.5. Costs of Road Improvements of Various Categories

Costs of improvements have been worked out in detail taking into consideration the

variation in traffic volume of each road. The typical sample estimates for two cases of

observed traffic volumes of 50 MSA and 20 MSA are presented in Table 6.3 for all the 10

improvement options. Details are enclosed in Annexure B-6.1.

Table 6.3 TYPICAL COST OF IMPROVEMENTS

SN Improvement Considered (Widening /

Strengthening) Traffic Volume

(msa) Cost

(Crore/km)

1. 1-lane road to 4-lane road without paved shoulder 50 7.65

2. 1.5-lane road to 4-lane road without paved shoulder 50 7.48

3. 2-lane road to 4-lane road without paved shoulder 50 7.35

4. 4-lane road to strengthened 4-lane road without paved shoulder

50 2.97

5. 1-lane to 2-lane road without paved shoulder 20 3.67

6. 1-lane road to 2-lane road with paved shoulder 20 4.50

7. 1.5-lane road to 2-lane road without paved shoulder 20 3.50

8. 1.5-lane road to 2-lane road with paved shoulder 20 4.33

9. 2-lane road to strengthened 2-lane road without paved shoulder

20 1.20

10. 2-lane road to strengthened 2-lane road with paved shoulder

20 4.01

11. New 4-lane road 50 9.00

6.3.6. Total Cost of Road Improvements

The summary of cost of road improvements in the Core Network is:

CATEGORY Length (km) Rs (Crores)

SH 7,530 44,203

MDR 5,761 29,112

ODR 3,254 17,747

Total 16,545 91,062

If the designs are done as per IRC:37-2012, using cement stabilisation, the costs are as

under:

CATEGORY Rs (Crores)

SH 40,793

MDR 28,306

ODR 17,017

Total 86,116

With the opinion of cement concrete pavement for new pavements, the costs are as under:

CATEGORY Rs (Crores)

SH 41,464

MDR 28,517

ODR 17,293

Total 87,274

6.4. REPLACEMENT OF PONTOON BRIDGES BY RCC BRIDGES IN THE CORE NETWORK

6.4.1. Need

Due to paucity of funds, it has not been possible for UP to construct RCC bridges across

major rivers. At the same time, considering the needs of the people, to negotiate these

rivers, pontoon bridges are being used. The policy of the UP Govt. is to gradually replace

the pontoon bridges by RCC bridges. In the Master Plan, it is proposed to include this




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activity as one of the important programme.

6.4.2. Number of Pontoon Bridges in Core Network

There are only two Pontoon Bridges that need to be replaced by RCC Bridge in the Core

Network. Annexure B-6.2 gives the details of costing. The cost is Rs 529 crores. Both are

4-lane bridges.

6.5. NEW RCC MAJOR BRIDGES

Apart from the Pontoon Bridges, there are some new major bridges to be constructed in the

Core Network. 157 bridges will need an investment of 3799 crores. The details are given in

Annexure B-6.3 (a) to (d).

6.6. REPLACEMENT OF RAILWAY LEVEL CROSSINGS BY ROBS

Railway level crossings cause delay to road traffic, besides being the cause of accidents

when cyclists and pedestrians disobey gate closure and cross the railway line. The

Railways and the road authorities are both committed to replace the level crossings by

ROBs. As per the present practice, the Railways bear 50 per cent of the cost of the bridge

structure if the traffic exceeds 1 lakh TVUs and the road authorities have to bear the cost of

the approaches. The numbers of level crossings that need replacement by a grade

separator have been identified and are presented in Annexure B-6.4. The number of ROBs

in the Core Network is 53 and the cost is Rs 3045 crore.

6.7. SUMMARY OF COST OF IMPROVEMENT TO CORE NETWORK AT CURRENT RATES

(COMPARATIVE COSTS)

The Comparative analysis has been done core network improvements with comparison

drawn on various pavement options including flexible and rigid pavements.

Description

As per IRC:37-

2001

As per

IRC:37-2012

With cement

concrete

pavement

Rs (Crore)

1. Road widening and

strengthening 91,062 86,116 87,274

2. Replacement of Pontoon Bridges 529 529 529

3. New RCC Major Bridges 3799 3799 3799

4. ROBs 3045 3045 3045

Total 98,435 93,489 94,647

Since the future work will be executed in the years 2013-31, the actual cost of

implementation will have to take account of inflation. From the past data on Whole-sale

Price Index, the yearly inflation is around 6 per cent. This has been considered in the

phasing programme, assuming that the same trend will continue in the next 20 years.


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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

7. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

7.1. Importance of Economic Analysis

Economic Analysis (Determination of Economic Internal Rate of Return-EIRR) of projects is

important for the following reasons:

- EIRR helps to determine whether a project is worth implementing at all or not. A return

of 12 per cent is the minimum to establish the economic viability.

- It helps in prioritising the schemes when funds are constrained.

7.2. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SH/MDR/ODR (WIDENING / STRENGTHENING)

7.2.1. Widening and strengthening

As stated above there are 10 different scenarios of widening and strengthening from single

lane to two lanes, single lane to four-lanes, two-lanes to four-lanes etc. Traffic capacity of a

future road is the primary consideration in widening these roads. The basic principles for

widening and strengthening of some typical cases of roads considered in the Core Network

are discussed below.

7.2.2. Single Lane/ Intermediate Lane Road and Two-Lane Road to Four-Lane Road

There are several stretches of roads (mainly SHs) which have very high traffic. According to

current IRC Guidelines, the capacity of a single lane road is 2000 PCU/day, an intermediate

lane is 6000 PCU/day and 2-lane road is 15,000 PCU/day. The capacity of a four lane

divided carriageway is 40,000 PCU/day. Though the above guidelines are followed

throughout the country, the Consultants are of the opinion that resources being scarce, the

justification for widening should be backed up by economic analysis which examines the

costs and benefits.

7.2.3. Economics of Widening SH/MDR/ODR from Single Lane to Two-lanes

There are several stretches of MDRs and SHs in U.P which are having only a single lane

pavement. The capacity of a single lane road as per IRC Guidelines is 2,000 PCU/day in

plain terrain, whereas the projected traffic exceeds this value. Moreover, as per IRC long-

term plans, all SHs have to be widened to two lanes, and a good percentage of MDRs

should be widened to two lanes also. In some cases, widening form single lane to two lane

with paved shoulders is a good option and has been considered. Traffic and economic

justification should be the main criteria for widening. Accordingly, economic analysis of

widening single lane roads to (i) two lanes and (ii) intermediate lane is presented in this

report.

7.2.4. Economics of Widening SH/MDR from Intermediate Lane to Two Lanes

There are several stretches of MDRs and SHs in U.P. which are having only an

intermediate lane pavement. The capacity of an intermediate lane road as per IRC

Guidelines is 6,000 PCU/day in plain terrain, whereas the present traffic far exceeds this

value. Moreover, as per IRC long-term plans, all SHs have to be widened to two lanes, and

a good percentage of MDRs should be widened to two lanes. Traffic and economic

justification should be the main criteria for widening. Accordingly, economic analysis of

widening intermediate lane roads to two lanes is presented in this Report.

7.2.5. Basis for Economic Analysis for Widening

Analysis period is 20 years

- The construction is phased over 3 years, with share of cost as under:


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1st year 20%

2nd

year 40%

3rd

year 40%

- All financial costs are converted to economic costs by a factor of 0.85.

- The traffic growth rate is taken as 7.5 per cent. It may be added here that 7.5% GR has

only been adopted for calculation of benefits in the EIRR. The core network

identification is based on travel demand and screening process.

- Traffic volume and composition is taken for each road.

- Inflation is disregarded due below mentioned rationale:

In the Book “Traffic System Analysis for Engineers and Planners” by Wohl and

Martin (Mc Graw Hill Book Company), the following sentence explains how inflation

is usually treated

“In situations of inflation or deflation ‘Hirshleiger et all’ recommends that all present

and future cost and benefits be measured in constant dollars”.

In the IRC Manual on Economic Evaluation of Highway Projects in India

(IRC:SP:30-2009), the following recommendation is relevant:

Page 13, Para No. - 5.7 (Treatment of Inflation)

The construction of highway project takes a number of years and during this period,

the cost of labour, material and equipment may undergo an inflationary trend.

Similarly, the benefits of reduced Vehicle Operating Costs may be higher in future

years due to inflation. Since general inflation results in the price rise in all goods,

the relative prices remain constant. Hence, it is the practice to disregard escalation

and inflation, both on the cost stream and the benefit stream. However, changes in

relative prices should be allowed at least up to the extent that they can be foreseen

accurately which can help in demonstrating how they affect costs and benefits

differently.

The following sentence is extracted from “An Introduction to Engineering

Economics”, by the Institution of Civil Engineers, London:

Page 33: In general it is more convenient to base estimates of future expenditure

on the assumption that the present level will continue rather than to attempt making

forecasts of inflation”.

- Vehicle Operating Costs and Time Costs of passengers and commodities in transit are

taken from IRC: SP: 30, adjusted suitably to current costs, using Wholesale Price

Index.

- Maintenance costs have been taken from Chief Engineers Norms.

- A particular road may have several sections with different traffic. In such cases, the

costs and benefits have been worked out for each section, summed up for the full road

and the EIRR obtained for the full road.

7.2.6. Phasing

As discussed and explained in Chapter 4, section 4.7 the distribution of core network by

category was grouped to be taken up for phasing, mobilisation of resources and

implementation schedule in the following manner. The approach followed was to identify

major travel corridors and its linkages so that these can be grouped and phased

accordingly.

- Five major broad groupings were considered and finalised in consultation with UPPWD

in order of priority


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- First Group constituted composite primary corridors having aggregate lengths more

than 50 km including individual category wise roads (SH, MDR, ODR) having lengths

more than 50 km.

- Second group was constituted with balance primary corridors with achieved length less

than 50 km. Similarly, 3 separate groups (Third, Fourth & Fifth) were created for

category wise individual roads (SH, MDR, ODR) with lengths less than 50 km.

EIRR has been worked out for all road sections passing through each District. The phasing

was decided based on the available schemes and options so that implementation can be

achieved by year 2017. Therefore, Phase I roads and corridors were identified by studying

the existing budgetary allocation of running schemes, important sections and in view of the

expected multi-lateral funding being organised by the GoUP through ADB and WB. The

Phase I roads and corridors were also selected based on observed EIRR requiring

immediate implementation. The norm adopted for phasing (II to IV) is given in Table 7.1.

The phasing of proposed ROB and Major Bridges has been phased in respective phases of

the representative road sections on various categories of roads for a meaningful

implementation of the schemes.

Table 7.1 SUGGESTED PHASING

SN Road Category / Corridor

Group and reach (km)

EIRR (%)

Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV

2014–2017 2018–2022 2023–2027 2028–2031

1. Corridors and Roads > 50 km Existing

schemes and expected

borrowings

>20 10 – 20 <10

2. Rest of the Corridor s < 50 km >20 10 – 20 <10

3. Balance SH < 50 km >20 10 – 20 <10

4. Balance MDR < 50 km >20 10 – 20 <10

5. Balance ODR < 50 km >35 15 - 35 <15

During the preparation of Detailed Project Reports (DPRs), if a single road is in different

phases it can be considered for clubbing in any one convenient phase depending upon the

funding scenario. This can be decided during the preparation of the DPR. It is also

observed that in some few cases, single lane road is to be widened to four lanes at a later

stage. But the road needs to be widened to at least two lanes immediately. This has been

considered while phasing.

7.2.7. Details of EIRR

The results of EIRR for each road and identified major corridors are presented in

Annexure B-7.1. For convenience, the list has been re-arranged in the descending order of

EIRR to determine phasing.


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OUTLAYS & PHASING FOR IMPLEMENTATION

8. OUTLAYS & PHASING FOR IMPROVEMENTS FOR CORE NETWORK

8.1. IMPROVEMENTS PROPOSED

The following improvements in the Core Network are proposed:

i. Widening and strengthening of pavement including minor bridges of waterway

up to 60 m

- State Highways

- Major District Roads

- ODRs

ii. Connecting District Headquarters with Lucknow with a 4-lane road

iii. Construction of Bypasses and Ring Roads for congested Towns and Cities with a

population more than 1 lakh

iv. Replacement of Railway Level Crossings by ROBs

v. Replacement of Pontoon Bridges by RCC Bridges

vi. Construction of New Bridges across Major Rivers of waterway greater than 60 m

8.2. PHASING OF CORE NETWORK

8.2.1. Widening / Strengthening of Core Network

A total network of 16.454 km roads has been identified in the Core Network comprising of

SHs, MDRs and ODRs excluding the National Highways. The total cost of road

improvements on the core network will be Rs 91,062 crore.

Based on the traffic volume (PCUs) in the year 2031 the requirement of road width has

been worked out. The costs of widening or strengthening the existing roads as per

requirement have been worked out. The design life of the pavement considered is 15 years.

The cost of culverts, minor bridges, median, land acquisition, signage’s and road marking

have been taken into account in the estimated cost as per UPPWD norm. For the purpose

of phasing the construction activity, the EIRR of each road has been worked out. The

details are given in Annexure B-7.1. The construction work is proposed to be done in 4

phases of which Phase-I will be between 2014 and 2017 i.e. is 3 calendar / financial years,

Phase II and Phase III between years 2018 and 2027 of 5 year slabs each and Phase IV

will be between 2028 and 2031 i.e. 4 calendar years. The phasing plan of CRN in Phase 1

and Phase 1,2,3,4 combined is in Figures 8.1 & 8.2.

The summarised cost of improvements of SH, MDR and ODR are presented in Table 8.1,

costs at 2013 prices. Table 8.2 presents the escalated costs at 2013 base price with an

assumed inflation rate @ 6 per cent per annum (based on the indices of Wholesale Price

Index-WPI).

8.2.2. Replacement of railway level crossings by ROB(s)

Railway level crossings cause delay to road traffic, besides being the cause of accidents

when cyclists and pedestrians disobey gate closure and cross the railway line. The

Railways and the road authorities are both committed to replace the level crossings by

ROBs. As per the present practice, the Railways bear 50 per cent of the cost of the bridge

structure if the traffic exceeds 1 lakh TVUs and the road authorities have to bear the cost of

the approaches. A total 53 ROBs are required in the Core Network. The total cost of

constructing them is Rs 3045 crore.


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8.2.3. REPLACEMENT OF PONTOON BRIDGES BY RCC BRIDGES

8.2.3.1. Need

Due to paucity of funds, it has not been possible for UP to construct RCC bridges across

major rivers. At the same time, considering the needs of the people, to negotiate these

rivers, pontoon bridges are being used. The policy of the UP Govt. is to gradually replace

the pontoon bridges by RCC bridges. In the Master Plan, it is proposed to include this

activity as one of the important programme. Two Pontoon Bridges have been considered

for converting to regular bridges of 4-lane each. Other Pontoon bridges will be taken up in

Up-gradation work as discussed in next chapter. The two bridges considered are on

Sharada River at Pachpedi and Dhanaura Ghat respectively. This work will be taken up in

Phase I.

8.2.3.2. Cost of RCC Bridges

In working out the cost of the RCC Bridge, it has been assumed that the cost per running

metre of a 4-lane bridge is Rs 14.00 lakhs. In addition, a cost of Rs 1.8 lakhs per m has

been assumed as the cost of approaches (2 lane wide and 400 m length), and Rs 44.4

crores on each side for Guide bund protection has been assumed as the cost of bank

protection. An additional length of 6 Km approach has been assumed at a cost of 4788

lakhs. The total cost of RCC bridges is estimated at Rs 529.33 crore which includes

replacement of old Pontoon Bridges and New RCC Bridges to be developed on identified

Core road Network. The construction work will be taken up in Phase I between year 2014-

2017.

8.2.3.3. Major bridges

There are 157 major bridges of waterway above 60 m in the Core Network. The cost of

these is estimated at Rs 3799 crore.


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Table 8.1 COST OF IMPROVEMENTS OF SH/MDR/ODR INCLUDING MAJOR BRIDGES IN CORE NETWORK IN EACH PHASE (Rs in Crore)

SN Category

Length km & Nos Cost (Rs in crore)

Total (km /

No) Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Total Cost Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4

2014-2031 2014-17 2018-22 2023-27 2028-31 2014-2031 2014-17 2018-22 2023-27 2028-31

1 Widening and Strengthening of SH

7,045 2,437 1,593 1,635 1,380 44,203 15,465 11,250 9,662 7,826

2 Widening and Strengthening of MDR

5,761 589 1,207 2,254 1,711 29,112 2,558 7,274 11,331 7,949

3 Widening and Strengthening of ODR

3,254 23 743 1,335 1,153 17,747 84 4,977 7,643 5,043

4 Conversion of level Crossing to ROBs

53 9 9 17 18 3,045 501 576 923 1,046

5 New Major Bridges 157 26 52 50 29 3,799 727 1,343 1,036 693

6 Conversion of Ponton Bridges to RCC Bridge

2 1 1 0 0 529 272 257 - -

Total 98,435 19,607 25,677 30,595 22,557


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Table 8.2 PHASE-WISE COST ESTIMATE FOR STRATEGIC CORE NETWORK (2014-2031) - with escalation @6% per annum

sn Cat

Cost (Rs in crore)

TOTAL Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4

2014-2031 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

1 SH 65979 3093 6557 6951 4020 4261 3011 1596 1692 4620 4897 3461 1834 1944 5008 5308 3751 3976

2 MDR 50149 512 1085 1150 2599 2755 1947 1032 1094 5418 5743 4058 2151 2280 5086 5392 3810 4039

3 ODR 31421 17 36 38 1778 1885 1332 706 748 3655 3874 2737 1451 1538 3227 3421 2417 2562

4 ROB 5294 100 212 225 206 218 154 82 87 441 468 330 175 186 669 709 501 531

5 New Major

Bridges 5916 145 308 327 480 509 359 191 202 495 525 371 197 208 444 470 332 352

6

Conversion of Pontoon Bridges to

RCC Bridge

625 54 115 122 92 97 69 36 39 - - - - - - - - -

Total 159385 3921 8313 8812 9175 9725 6872 3642 3861 14629 15507 10958 5808 6156 14434 15300 10812 11461

Alloc (%) 20% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 10% 10% 30% 30% 20% 10% 10% 30% 30% 20% 20%

Years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16


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8.3. PROPOSAL FOR CONNECTING DISTRICT HEADQUARTERS TO LUCKNOW WITH 4-

LANE HIGHWAY

8.3.1. Background

In order to provide a modern road transport facility between the district headquarters and

the State Capital, Lucknow, the UP Govt. have planned to have a four-lane divided road on

these road links. Many of these links already have four-lane connectivity. The status is

given below.

8.3.2. District Head-Quarters already connected to Lucknow by 4-lane National Highway

The details are presented in Table 8.3.

Table 8.3 DISTRICT HQ ALREADY CONNECTED TO LUCKNOW BY 4-LANE NH

S. No. Name of District NH No.

1. Lucknow NH-28, NH 24, NH 25

2. Kanpur NH 25, NH 2

3. Barabanki NH 28

4. Faizabad NH 28

5. Basti NH 28

6. Sant Kabir Nagar NH 28

7. Gorakhpur NH 28

8. Sitapur NH 24

9. Shahjahanpur NH 24

10. Bareilly NH 24

11. Rampur NH 24

12. Moradabad NH 24

13. Ramabai Nagar NH 25

14. Gaziabad NH 24

15. Unnao NH 25

16. Jhansi NH 25

17. Orai NH 25

18. Chandauli NH 2

19. Varanasi NH 2

20. Fatehpur NH 2

21. Auraiya NH 2

22. Etawah NH 2

23. Firozabad NH 2

24. Agra NH 2

25. Mathura NH 2

26. Panchasheel Nagar NH 24

27. Muzzafarnagar NH 58

28. Meerut NH 58

8.3.3. District HQs to be connected under proposed construction programme

Table 8.4 gives the details of 4-lane connectivity of District HQs on proposed/ under

construction schemes.

Table 8.4 CONNECTIVITY OF DISTRICT HQ. WITH NH


1. Gautambudh Nagar NH 91

2. Bulandshahr NH 91

3. Aligarh NH 91

4. Rae Bareilly NH 24-B

5. Sultanpur NH 56

6. Lalitpur NH 56

7. Ambedkar Nagar NH 233

8. Jaunpur NH 56

9. Allahabad NH 96


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8.3.4. District HQ located on 2-lane NHs through 2-laning with shoulder (GOI Funding)

Table 8.5 gives the District HQ which are covered by the 2-laning with shoulders in the

scheme of Govt. of India.

Table 8.5 CONNECTIVITY OF DISTRICT HQ. WITH NH THROUGH GOI SCHEME

S. No. Name of District NH No. under 2-ane with shoulders

programme

1. Kannauj NH 91

2. Etah NH 91

3. Azamgarh NH 232

4. Mau NH 29

5. Gazipur NH 29

6. Pratapgarh NH 231

7. Bijnaur NH 119

8. Bahraich NH 28C

9. Banda NH 232

10. Chatrapati Shahuji Maharaj Nagar NH 232

11. Hamirpur NH 86

12. Mahamaya Nagar NH 93

13. Sidharth Nagar NH 233

14. Mirzapur NH 7

Table 8.6 presents the list of District HQs located on 2-lane NHs, for which Govt. of UP

have made a request for 4-laning or 2-laning with shoulders.

Table 8.6 LIST OF DISTRICT HQs ON 2-LANE NHs FOR WHICH UP GOVT. HAVE REQUESTED GOI FOR 4-

LANING OR 2-LANE WITH SHOULDER


1. Chitrakoot NH 76

2. Mahoba NH 76

3. Kushinagar NH 28/ NH-28B

4. Ballia NH 19

5. Pilibhit NH 74

Table 8.7 below gives the programme (proposed/ under construction) through UPSHA for

4-laning of roads connecting District HQs with Lucknow.

Table 8.7: 4-LANING OF SHs PROPOSED/ UNDER CONSTRUCTION FOR CONNECTING DISTRICT HQs

WITH LUCKNOW

S. No. District SH No. Length (Km) Cost (Rs Crore)

1. Saharanpur

SH 57 206.09 412.18 2. Baghpat

3. Prabudha Nagar

4. Sonbhadra SH 5A 115 230

5. Badayun SH 43 164.17 328.34

6. Balarampur SH 1-A 230 460.0

7. Gonda

8. Hardoi SH 25 162.4 324.8

9. Maharajganj SH 81 78 156.0

10. Sant Ravidas Nagar SH 87 60.12 120.24

Total 1015.78 2031.56


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Presently the following UPSHA Roads are under construction (Table 8.8).

Table 8.8: 4-LANE SHs UNDER CONSTRUCTION BY UPSHA

SN Road SH District Road Length

(km) Total (Km)

1. Varanasi Shakti Nagar

Road SH-5A Mirzapur 50

136

Sonebhadra 86

2. Bareilly Almora Road SH-37 Bareilly 56 56

3. Delhi Saharanpur Yamunotri Road

SH-57

Ghaziabad 14

206 Baghapat 51

Muzaffar Nagar 49

Saharanpur 92

4. Meerut Karnal Road SH-82

Meerut 29 87

Muzaffar Nagar 58

Total 485

8.3.5. 4-laning of Roads to connect remaining District HQs to Lucknow

To connect the remaining unconnected Districts Hq. to State Capital by a 4 lane road, UP

PWD’s programme for 4-laning of roads, the total cost involved will be Rs 3400 crore. The

details are appended in Table 8.8.

Table 8.8: UP PWD’s PROGRAMME OF 4-LANING ROADS TO CONNECT DISTRICT HQs TO

LUCKNOW

S. No. District Road Length (Km) Cost (Rs Cores)

1. Lakhimpur Kheri SH 21 45 498

2. Jyotiba Phule Nagar SH77 6 66

3. Kaushambi Connecting NH 2 and SH 95 17 188

4. Farrukhabad MDR 9W 25 277

5. Deoria SH 79 34 376

6. Kanshiram Nagar SH 33 31 343

7. Bhim Nagar MDR 69 35 387

8. Sharavasti SH 96 A 39 431

9. Mainpuri SH 83 76 841

Total 308 3407

say 3,400

Thus all District Headquarters will be connected by a four-lane road.


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UP-GRADATION PLAN

9. UP-GRADATION PLAN

9.1. UP-GRADATION OF SH/MDR/ODR NOT COVERED IN THE CORE NETWORK

9.1.1. Criteria for Selecting State Highways (SH)

State Highways and Major District Roads constitute the secondary system of roads in the

country. They act as linkages between the rural areas (served by Rural Roads) and the

urban centres. While the NH’s are funded directly by the GOI, SHs and MDRs are funded

by the State from their own resources. The Lucknow Plan had envisaged that the NHs and

SHs taken together should link all towns with population of 5000 and above. The major

burden of connectivity to such towns falls on SHs. The Vision: 2021 Document and the

Lucknow Plan have recommended that the following factors be kept in view in fixing the

Network of SHs:

- Providing linkages with minor ports, industrial towns, pilgrimage and tourist centres

- Connecting the remaining towns with population 5000 and above (population census of

2001 may be the criterion)

- Connecting the capitals of the State will the district headquarters

- Serving major agricultural market centres

- Serve all sub-divisional headquarters.

9.1.1.1. Current Length of SH in UP

As per statistics available with the UPPWD, the current length of SH in the state is 7,530

km.

9.1.1.2. Length of SHs required as per Lucknow Plan and Vision Document

As per the Lucknow Plan, two formulae have been given:

1. SH length in Km =

25

Km sq in Area , giving a grid of 50 Km

2. SH length in Km =

50

Km sq in Area -townsof Number x 62.5

The lengths as per the above formulae are:

(1) SH length in Km =

25

2,40,928 = 9,637 Km

(2) SH length in Km

50

2,40,928 -677 x 62.5 = 37,494 Km

The Vision 2021 document has envisaged a length of 1,60,000 km for SHs for India.

Apportioning this length on the basis of area, the length required in UP is:

1,60,000 x 32,87,263

2,40,928 = 11,727 Km

This shows that UP’s current SH length (7,530 km) is far too below the nationally accepted

norms. Therefore, there is considerable scope for adding more SH in the network.

9.1.1.3. Additions to SHs

Existing length of SH in state is 7530 km but 4579 km of MDR and 2307 km of ODRs have

been identified for upgrading to SH totalling to 6886 km. A length of 640 km of Indo-Nepal

Border Road which will be taken up for construction is added to SH length. Thus the length

of SHs in the proposed Road Network of UP for the year 2031 will be:


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1. Existing SH length +7530 Km

2. Length of MDR converted as SH +4579 Km

3. Length of ODR converted as SH +2307 Km

4. Indo-Nepal Border Road +640 Km

15056 Km

The cost of up-gradation of Indo-Nepal Border road is not considered for costing. The net

additional length in SH will be therefore, 6886 km.

9.1.2. Major District Roads (MDR)

9.1.2.1. Criteria for Selecting MDRs

Major District Roads, along with State Highways, constitute the secondary system of the

road system of a State. According to the Lucknow Plan, MDRs should connect all towns

and villages above a population of 1500 which are not connected by NH or SH.

The Vision 2021 document states that MDR run within the Districts, connecting areas of

production with markets, connecting the rural areas to the district headquarters and the SHs

and NHs.

9.1.2.2. Current length of MDRs in UP

As per statistics available with the UPPWD, the current length of MDRs in the state is

7,208 km.

9.1.2.3. Length of MDRs required as per Lucknow Plan and Vision 2021 Document

As per the Lucknow Plan, two formulae have been given:

1. MDR length in Km =

12.5

Km sq in Area , giving a grid of 25 Km

2. MDR length in Km = townsof Number x 90

The lengths as per the above formulae are:

(1) MDR length in Km

required in 2001

=

12.5

2,40,928 = 19,274 Km

(2) MDR length in Km

required in 2001

= 90 x 677 = 60,930 Km

The Vision 2021 document has envisaged a length of 3,20,000 km for MDRs for India.

Apportioning this length on the basis of area, the length required in UP is:

3,20,000 x 32,87,263

2,40,928 = 23,453 Km

It is thus, seen that the current length of MDRs in the State is much below the national

targets and efforts shall have to be made to add more lengths of MDR and bridge the large

gaps presently available in the middle segment roads in the hierarchy.

List of SH/MDR/ODR included in the Up-gradation Plan are enclosed as Annexures B-9.1

to B-9.3.

9.2. RURAL ROADS

9.2.1. ODRs and VRs

Rural Roads, as per currently accepted common usage in India, comprise of ODRs and

VRs are the tertiary system of roads. There is about 32,838 km of ODR’s in the State. A


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P a g e | 9-3

length of 12,160 km is proposed for up-gradation to higher category and 6898 km is the

additional length proposed for upgradation to ODR from VR. Therefore, the net length of

ODR will be 27,576 km after the proposed up-gradation.

Under the PMGSY programme, the Core Network for Rural Roads for each District has

been prepared. Since this work has been done on a very scientific basis and the Core

Network has been accepted by the GOI, this Core Network itself can be dovetailed in to the

Core Network of Primary (Expressways and NHs) and Secondary (SHs and MDRs) Road

System of the State.

9.3. PROPOSED UPGRADED ROAD NETWORK FOR THE YEAR 2031

The proposed upgraded Road Network for the year 2031 is given in Table 9.1.

Table 9.1 PROPOSED ROAD NETWORK FOR 2031

Road Category

Length (Km)

Existing Length

Upgraded to higher category

Additions proposed

Indo-Nepal Border Road

Total

(1) (2) (3) (4) (1)+(3)+(4)–

(2)

NH 7,550 – – 7,550

SH 7,530 – 6,886 640 15,056

MDR 7,208 4,678 9,705 12,235

ODR 32,838 12,160 6,898 27,576

Total 55,126 16,838 23,489 640 62,417

9.4. ROUGH COST OF UP-GRADATION OF ROADS

A very rough cost of up-gradation of Roads other than Core Network is given below in

Tables 9.2 & 9.3.

Table 9.2 LENGTHS OF ROADS TO BE UPGRADED

Road Category

Total Network Length of 2031

(Km)

Length Covered by Core Network

(Km)

Balance Length for Up-gradation

(Km)

SH 14,416 7,530 6,886

MDR 12,235 5,761 6,474

ODR 27,576 3,254 24,322

Total 54,227 16,545 37,682

*640 Km of Indo-Nepal Border Road is not considered in the costing

Table 9.3 COST OF UP-GRADATION PLAN

Road Category

Length (Km) Up-gradation needed Cost per Km (Rs/Crores)

Cost of Up-gradation

(Rs/Crores)

SH 6,886 Single lane to 2-lane with

paved shoulder 4.50 30,987

MDR 6,474/2 = 3,237

Single lane to 2-lane without paved shoulder

3.66 11,847

3,237 Single lane to 2-lane with

paved shoulder 4.50 14,576

ODR 24,322 Single lane to 1.5-lane 2.88 70,047

Total 127,448


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Table 9.4 PHASING OF UP-GRADATION OF ROADS

PHASING OF SH

PHASING YEAR PERCENT AMOUNT (RS

CRORE)- 2013 PRICE

I 2013-2016 10 3099

II 2016-2021 30 9296

III 2021-2026 30 9296

IV 2026-2031 30 9296

Total 30987

PHASING OF MDR


CRORE)- 2013 PRICE

I 2014-2017 10 2642

II 2018-2022 30 7924

III 2023-2027 30 7924

IV 2028-2031 30 7924

Total 26414

PHASING OF ODR


CRORE)- 2013 PRICE

I 2014-2017 10 7005

II 2018-2022 30 21014

III 2023-2027 30 21014

IV 2028-2031 30 21014

Total 70047

9.5. ROBs IN UP-GRADATION WORK

A total of 62 ROBs have been identified in Up-gradation work as per the details given in

Annexure B-9.4. The total cost of construction is estimated as Rs 2,245 crore.

The phasing of construction of these bridges is as under:

PHASING YEAR PERCENT AMOUNT (RS CRORE)-

2013 PRICE

I 2014-2017 10 225

II 2018-2022 30 673

III 2023-2027 30 673

IV 2028-2031 30 674

Total 2245

9.6. NEW BRIDGES OTHER THAN PROPOSED IN CORE NETWORK

New 125 bridges other than Core Network have been proposed for construction. These are

all major bridges having waterway more than 61 m to 1000 m. The details of these bridges

are given in Annexure B-9.5. The cost of 125 bridges is estimated as Rs 6,181 crores.

Phasing of construction of these bridges is as under:


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CRORE)- 2013 PRICE

I 2014-2017 10 618

II 2018-2022 30 1854

III 2023-2027 30 1854

IV 2028-2031 30 1855

Total 6181

9.7. REPLACEMENT OF PONTOON BRIDGES

There are 36 Pontoon Bridges, required to be converted to RCC bridges. The details of

these locations are given in Annexure B-9.6. The cost of these bridges is estimated as Rs

4381 crores. The phasing of construction of new bridges in lieu of Pontoon Bridges is:

PHASING YEAR PERCENT AMOUNT (RS CRORE)-

2013 PRICE

I 2013-2016 10 438

II 2016-2021 30 1314

III 2021-2026 30 1314

IV 2026-2031 30 1315

Total 4381

9.8. CANAL BANK ROADS

UP has an extensive irrigation system with several canals criss-crossing the State /

Country. The canals have banks where roads are made for inspection of the irrigation

system. The roads can be improved and made trafficable for the public, if some

improvements are carried out. The details of Canal Rods identified are enclosed as

Annexure B-9.7. The total length involved in 2203 km. The rough cost of widening to 2

lanes without shoulder is Rs. 3.66 crore per km. The total outlay involved shall be Rs. 8063

crore. The following priority can be observed in taking up the up-gradation of canal roads in

the State..

PRIORITIES OF CANAL ROADS CONSIDERED

S.No Description Priority

1. Canal road connecting NH to NH 1

2. Canal road connecting NH to SH 2

3. Canal road connecting NH to MDR 3

4. Canal road connecting NH to ODR 4

5. Canal road connecting SH to SH 5

6. Canal road connecting SH to MDR 6

7. Canal road connecting SH to ODR 7

8. Canal road connecting MDR to MDR 8

9. Canal road connecting MDR to ODR 9

10. Canal road connecting ODR to ODR 10

The outlay of Rs 8063 crore can be phased as under:

YEAR AMOUNT (RS CRORE)-

2013 PRICE

2014-2017 1500

2018-2022 2500

2023-2027 3000

2028-2031 1063

Total 8063


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9.9. BYPASSES AND RING ROADS

There are 43 urban bypasses and one ring road (Meerut City). Though these are on the

Core Network, they also serve other roads such as MDRs and ODRs, other than on Core

Ntwork. Hence the construction of bypasses and ring roads has been considered under Up-

gradation Plan. The cost shall be Rs 7,862 crores (details in Annexure B-9.8). The phasing

will be as under:

YEAR PERCENT AMOUNT (RS CRORE)-

2013 PRICE

2014-2017 10 786

2018-2022 30 2359

2023-2027 30 2359

2028-2031 30 2358

Total 7862

The cost abstract and phasing of upgradation plan is presented in Table 9.5.


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Table 9.5 COST ABSTRACT AND PHASING OF UP-GRADATION

SN CATEGORY Qty Total cost

(Cr)

Total Length /

no Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4

1. Widening of Strengthening of SH (Up-gradation) Km 30987 6886 3099 9296 9296 9296

2. Widening of Strengthening of MDR (Up-gradation) Km 26414 6474 2642 7924 7924 7924

3. Widening of Strengthening of ODR (Up-gradation) Km 70047 24322 7005 21014 21014 21014

4. ROBs No 2245 62 225 674 674 674

5. New / Missing Bridges No 6181 125 618 1854 1854 1854

6. Pontoon Bridges No 4381 36 438 1314 1314 1314

7. Canal bank Road Km 8063 2203 1500 2500 3000 1063

8. Bypasses / Ring Roads (Town more than 1 Lakh Population)

Km 7862 572 786 2359 2359 2359

Total

156180

16313 46935 47435 45498

The details of up-gradation plan have been submitted in hard and soft copies to UPPWD separately.


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CONNECTIVITY STATUS OF HABITATIONS

10. CONNECTIVITY STATUS OF HABITATIONS

10.1. INTRODUCTION

Uttar Pradesh is the largest State in India in terms of population. According to 2001 census

there were 99526 numbers of revenue villages and 216562 numbers of habitations present in

Uttar Pradesh State. Various schemes were initiated immediately after independence to

connect the villages and results of such initiatives are very commendable to give mobility to

these settlements and connect them with the main links in the rural areas.

Through PMGSY scheme a significant change has been observed in the State. The standards

for connecting the villages have been revised from time to time by the State and Central

government. In this way, about 88% villages in the State have been connected by Pucca /

Bituminous road. The standard followed till now is to connect the first house of a habitation or of

revenue village by road and the entire village shall be deemed connected.

According to these standards 27118 villages out of 27374 villages with population more than

1500 have been connected by Pucca Bituminous Roads while 256 revenue villages are yet to

be connected. Out of 16718 villages with population ranging between 1000 and 1499, 15859

villages have already been connected by Pucca Bituminous roads while 859 revenue villages

are yet to be connected. Out of 25700 villages with population ranging between 500 and 999,

23767 villages have already been connected by Pucca Bituminous roads while 1933 revenue

villages are yet to be connected. Out of 29734 villages with population ranging between 0 and

499, 21954 villages have already been connected by Pucca Bituminous roads while 7780

revenue villages are yet to be connected. Accordingly, out of 99526 revenue villages, 88698

villages have been already connected by Pucca Bituminous roads till March 2012 while 10828

revenue villages are yet to be connected. Approximately 90 percent villages have been

connected.

As it can be understood that there would be more than one habitation in one revenue village

and following the above described standard some habitations may not have been connected.

Considering this situation the PMGSY scheme has been brought in force by Government of

India and standard was revised and finalized to connect the habitations.

According to the records in revenue department total numbers of habitations present in State

are 216562. Out of 41322 habitations with population more than 1000, 41315 habitations have

been connected by Pucca Bituminous roads and only 7 habitations are yet to be connected.

Out of 49573 habitations with population between 500 and 999, 48855 habitations have been

connected by Pucca Bituminous roads and only 718 habitations are yet to be connected. Out of

55616 habitations with population between 250 and 499, 37731 habitations have been

connected by Pucca Bituminous roads and only 17885 habitations are yet to be connected. Out

of 70051 habitations with population less than 250, 44843 habitations have been connected by

Pucca Bituminous roads and only 25208 habitations are yet to be connected. Till March 2012,

172744 habitations have been connected by Pucca Bituminous roads.


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10.2. STATUS OF CONNECTIVITY UNDER PMGSY

Under the PMGSY scheme by Government of India in year 2012-13, a total of 757 habitations

have been sanctioned for connectivity in which 685 habitations were with populations between

500 and 999, 70 habitations were with population between 250 and 499 and 2 habitations were

with population less than population of 250. By March 2014 the above habitations will get

connected.

In this way a total of 43061 habitations are pending for approval to be connected in which 7

habitations are left unconnected with population more than 1000, 33 habitations left with

population between 500 and 999, 17815 habitations left with population between 250 and 499

and 25272 habitations left with population below 250. The description of 7 unconnected

habitations with population more than 1000 is given in Table 10.1.

Table 10.1 HABITATIONS LEFT FOR APPROVAL WITH POPULATION

MORE THAN 1000 (CENSUS 2001)

SN District Unconnected Habitation Habitation Name Remarks

1 Maharajganj Khaihava Tola Bankatawa 150mt Bridge on

road

2 Jaunpur Pariyanwan Sahjad Nagar No land available

3 Ballia Deera Bhagar On either side river Ghaghara

4 Ballia Shivpur Shivpur has submerged in Ghaghara

5 Ballia Shivpur Diyar Numbari No land available

6 Ballia Diara Maniar No.-2 Alignment is Disputed

7 Ballia Beswan Alignment is Disputed

10.3. STATUS OF CONNECTIVITY ACCORDING TO STATE PWD

There is discrepancy in the data of connected habitations in State and Central Government as

the standards followed are different. As in the PMGSY scheme any habitation accessible to

Pucca Road having connecting length less than 0.5 km is considered as connected, by a brick

Road or WBM. However, according to State Government guidelines only those habitations are

considered connected where there is Pucca Bituminous Roads till the first house of a

habitation.

As per the data received from State Government, 1153 habitations with population more than

1000, 5068 habitations with population between 500 to 999, 17835 habitations with population

between 250 and 499 and 19130 habitations with population less than 250 are still pending. In

this way a total of 43186 habitations are pending but as per the report on PMGSY scheme

43112 habitations are pending. The major differences are in the habitations with population

more than 500. According to the PMGSY scheme 695 habitations with population more than

500 are pending, whereas, as per PWD 6221 habitations are pending. The difference observed

in the data is due to the difference in the standards adopted by State and Central Government.

The schedule for connecting habitations with population more than 500 has already been

prepared by the State Government and 3558 habitations will be connected this year for which

approval has been given. Rest of the habitations will be connected by 2014-2015. 680

habitations with population between 250 and 499 have also been approved by NABARD for

connectivity. In this way by 2015, all the habitations with population above 500 will be

connected by Pucca Bituminous Roads except those which are inaccessible or impossible.


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Based on survey by Public Works Department total 43186 habitations are still pending to be

connected and to connect these habitations, District wise allotment of fund will be required.

Summary of Unconnected habitations with PMGSY and UPPWD is given below in Table 10.2.

Table 10.2 STATUS OF CONNECTIVITY (PMGSY & UPPWD)

Category

Total Habitations (as per 2001

Census)

As per PMGSY As per

UPPWD

Remark Connected

(upto Apr-12) Balance

(upto Apr-12)

Habitation Sanctioned (in 12-13)

Balance (Apr-13)

Balance (Apr-13)

1000 > 41322 41315 7 0 7 1153 The diff. in Bal of

PMSGY and

UPPWD un-

connected habitation is due to

change in Standard

followed for connectivity

500 to 999 49573 48855 718 685 33 5068

250 to 499 55616 37731 17885 70 17815 17835

< 250 70051 44843 25208 2 25206 19130

Total 216562 172744 43818 757 43061 43186

The details and summary of habitations to be connected as per UPPWD data collected is

presented below in Tables 10.3 to 10.7.

Table 10.3: SUMMARY OF HABITATIONS TO BE CONNECTED ON BASIS OF SINGLE CONNECTIVITY WITH

CONNECTING ROADS HAVING POPULATION 500 AND ABOVE AS PER CENSUS 2001 WHICH ARE NOT

CONSIDERED IN PMGSY

S.N. Zone No. of unconnected

habitations to be connected with connecting road

Approximate length and cost of connecting road from habitation to the

connecting road

Length (km) Cost (Rs in lakh)

1 Agra 162 136.98 5941.26

2 Allahabad 274 282.10 10778.72

3 Azamgarh 824 653.44 19995.60

4 Bareilly 321 269.73 11007.84

5 Faizabad 1106 1056.60 50074.78

6 Gorakhpur 1425 1360.61 63664.09

7 Jhansi 144 304.28 18839.02

8 Kanpur 209 233.01 7500.41

9 Lucknow 1241 1307.66 57801.46

10 Meerut 56 51.04 1903.18

11 Moradabad 93 89.45 5025.38

12 Varanasi 366 389.66 16627.48

Total State 6221 6134.52 269159.22


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Table 10.4: SUMMARY OF HABITATIONS TO BE CONNECTED ON BASIS OF SINGLE CONNECTIVITY WITH

CONNECTING ROADS HAVING POPULATION BETWEEN 250 TO 499 AS PER CENSUS 2001 WHICH ARE NOT

CONSIDERED IN PMGSY

SN Zone

No. of unconnected habitations to be connected with connecting road

Approximate length and cost of connecting road from habitation to the connecting road


1 Agra 622 481.76 20223.60

2 Azamgarh 2800 1826.88 53868.06

3 Allahabad 1054 960.14 35736.07

4 Kanpur 758 662.40 27844.10

5 Gorakhpur 2842 2294.04 106621.17

6 Jhansi 492 695.18 38719.35

7 Faizabad 4849 4565.32 206204.77

8 Bareilly 389 436.53 19309.93

9 Moradabad 98 95.95 3240.29

10 Meerut 71 67.85 2213.11

11 Lucknow 3319 3401.78 144803.54

12 Varanasi 541 579.18 24048.90

Total State 17835 16067.00 682832.91

Table 10.5: ZONE WISE WORK PLAN SUMMARY OF UNCONNECTED HABITATIONS TO BE CONNECTED

WITH CONNECTING ROADS HAVING POPULATION LESS THAN 250 AS PER CENSUS 2001 WHICH ARE NOT

CONSIDERED IN PMGSY

S.N. ZONE UC HABITATION LENGTH (Km) COST (Lakh)

1 Agra 1441 1489.14 54967.24

2 Azamgarh 646 609.92 14694.19

3 Allahabad 143 151.27 4387.42

4 Kanpur 1220 1534.66 60170.63

5 Gorakhpur 1299 1238.96 43246.46

6 Jhansi 810 980.21 56681.39

7 Faizabad 11373 8183.43 365425.48

8 Bareilly 685 1080.15 40491.96

9 Moradabad 217 410.06 15678.31

10 Meerut 102 162.87 4176.11

11 Lucknow 880 679.84 27450.28

12 Varanasi 314 363.23 11291.79

Total 19130 16883.73 698661.29


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Table 10.6: BLOCK WISE WORK PLAN SUMMARY OF UNCONNECTED HABITATIONS TO BE CONNECTED

WITH CONNECTING ROADS HAVING POPULATION BETWEEN LESS THAN 250 AS PER CENSUS 2001

WHICH ARE NOT CONSIDERED IN PMGSY

S.N. DISTRICT UC HABITATION LENGTH (Km) COST (Lakh)

1 Meerut 7 9.75 329.84

2 Saharanpur 77 127.09 3177.25

3 Muzaffarnagar 10 18.03 450.75

4 Baghpat 0 0.00 0.00

5 Ghaziabad 4 2.90 90.77

6 G.B. Nagar 0 0.00 0.00

7 Bulandsahar 4 5.10 127.50

8 Agra 444 406.16 17845.16

9 Aligarh 49 73.60 3385.60

10 Mahamaya Nagar 93 82.45 3086.93

11 Mathura 85 123.58 4510.67

12 Mainpuri 395 378.85 11269.35

13 Firozabad 105 85.95 1930.15

14 Etah 270 338.55 12939.38

15 Kanshiram Nagar 0 0.00 0.00

16 Jhansi 137 214.45 8756.38

17 Jalaun 25 36.75 2205.00

18 Lalitpur 62 86.70 3682.33

19 Hamirpur 69 86.32 5610.80

20 Mahoba 17 27.78 1237.90

21 Chitrakoot 59 79.63 4264.57

22 Banda 441 448.58 30924.42

23 Moradabad 14 16.75 340.86

24 Rampur 42 69.55 2840.42

25 J.P. Nagar 57 43.26 1277.03

26 Bijnor 104 280.50 11220.00

27 Bareilly 67 90.00 2890.85

28 Pilibhit 47 90.60 3507.13

29 Shahjahanpur 429 721.80 28289.68

30 Badaun 142 177.75 5804.30

31 Kanpur 62 70.13 2848.69

32 Ramabai Nagar 247 251.80 11010.83

33 Auraiyya 188 230.55 6535.71

34 Farukhabad 228 318.51 13459.01

35 Etawah 179 227.62 8538.88

36 Kannauj 316 436.05 17777.52

37 Lucknow 52 78.00 2797.58

38 Unnao 34 47.40 1505.87

39 Sitapur 81 86.86 3135.91

40 Lakhimpur Kheeri 57 77.78 3540.75

41 Hardoi 26 38.00 1427.20

42 Rae Bareilly 630 351.80 15042.97

43 Faizabad 310 372.81 12403.91

44 Barabanki 1046 827.61 33796.09

45 Sultanpur 2872 1799.64 56333.65

46 Gonda 1589 1071.28 39522.29

47 Bahraich 3299 2680.33 164803.50

48 Ambedkar Nagar 77 58.10 1743.00

49 Shrawasti 931 577.40 35367.65

50 Balrampur 1249 796.27 21455.39

51 Azamgarh 291 204.62 4223.81


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S.N. DISTRICT UC HABITATION LENGTH (Km) COST (Lakh)

52 Jaunpur 178 233.38 5360.33

53 Ballia 29 36.10 1213.51

54 Mau 148 135.83 3896.56

55 Gorakhpur 85 89.50 3312.54

56 Deoria 70 60.55 1613.92

57 Kushinagar 25 29.75 1026.37

58 St. Kabir Nagar 135 146.51 5469.31

59 Maharajganj 19 9.54 305.34

60 Basti 377 310.39 10766.60

61 Siddhartha Nagar 588 592.72 20752.38

62 Allahabad 71 89.80 2565.37

63 Pratapgarh 30 25.55 705.40

64 Kaushambhi 13 9.97 337.06

65 Fatehpur 29 25.95 779.59

66 Varanasi 43 61.88 1626.78

67 Mirzapur 57 90.00 2818.80

68 Ghazipur 133 114.25 3655.55

69 Chandauli 26 26.50 937.04

70 Robertsganj 46 61.20 2031.97

71 St. Ravidas Nagar 9 9.40 221.65

Total 19130 16883.73 698661.29

Table 10.7: SUMMARY OF UNCONNECTED HABITATIONS

S.N. Category

No. of unconnected habitations to be connected with connecting road

Approximate length and cost of connecting road from habitation to the connecting road


1 More than 500 6221 6135.42 269181.22

2 250 to 499 17835 12665.21 538029.37

3 Less than 250 19279 16883.73 698661.29

Total 43235 35684.36 1505871.88

35865 15059 crore

Thus total of Rs. 15059 crore will be required to connect the remaining habitations with the

Pucca Bituminous roads. Public Works Department has been preparing and arranging budget

for construction of connecting village roads as per rules.

Year wise summary of fund received by Public Works Department under various schemes is

given below;

S.N. Financial Year Amount

1 2008 & 2009 1044.35

2 2009 & 2010 961.04

3 2010 & 2011 700.05

4 2011 & 2012 777.21

5 2012 & 2013 745.11

6 2013 & 2014 1435.15


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Observing the above budget allocation pattern assuming the receipt it will take about 10 years

to connect all the habitations at the present rate and if it is planned to connect all the

habitations by 2020 various other departments of the State Government will also have to be

included. Other departments involved in road construction other than UPPWD are;

i. Rural Engineering Services

ii. Sugarcane Department

iii. Mandi Parishad

iv. Panchayti Raj

At the State level, as per the sanctioned budget for the above departments, various habitations

shall also be marked. NABARD has also extended loan to State Government for connecting the

villages. As per the NABARD scheme following budget was sanctioned in various financial

years.

As per UPPWD - Year wise received budget by NABARD for connecting habitations

S.N. Financial Year Amount

1 2008 & 2009 234.00

2 2009 & 2010 290.00

3 2010 & 2011 206.36

4 2011 & 2012 410.00

5 2012 & 2013 215.15

6 2013 & 2014 290.15

Provisions of 239 crore have been made to connect habitations in Naxal affected districts and a

provision has also been made for the same during the past few years. An estimated amount of

Rs 200 crore and 31 crore is needed to connect 191 habitations in Sonbhadra and 122

habitations in Chandauli respectively. Request should be made to Government of India to

connect all the habitations of Naxal affected districts.

As per the survey conducted by the Public Works Department a total of 6221 habitations with

population above 500 are remaining to be connected whereas as per PMGSY program the

number of such habitations is 33. To eliminate this error the core network of PMGSY program

needs to be rebuilt and after preparation of the core network all the habitations with populations

above 500 should be connected to PMGSY program. There are 2508 habitations with

population less than 50 are to be connected in cluster and which need fund of approximately

84606 lakh. The consultant’s suggestion is to connect these habitations after regrouping

instead of connecting separately.


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Approximately 35865 km length of road shall be required to connect all habitations. The length

of existing rural roads in the state under Public Works Department and other departments is

127689 km and 125153 km respectively. Therefore the total length of rural roads is 252842 km.

After construction of another 35865 km the total length shall be 288707 km. Funds would have

to be created for maintenance of such big network.

In order to reduce the expenditure required for maintenance, it would be appropriate to

construct cement concrete road to connect the habitations. In view of increasing rates of

bitumen the cost of construction of cement concrete road would be comparable with bituminous

roads and save on maintenance over a period of time.

TARGET OF CONNECTING UNCONNECTED HABITATIONS (PHASE WISE)

S.N.

Target of connecting habitations

Population

Allotted fund

2012 & 2016 More than 500 6221

4967 250 to 500 5945

2016 & 2021 250 to 500 11890

6000 Less than 250 5945

2021 & 2025 Less than 250 13185 4092

15059 crore

Aforesaid information has been collected from officials of headquarters as well as data

collected during in person contact during the study conducted. The details of habitations with

current status and connectivity proposals are being separately submitted to UPPWD as soft

copies.


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IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

11. IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

11.1. PREAMBLE

An efficient, reliable and safe transport system is essential for nurturing rapid economic

growth. In the last decade though there have been significant investments, strategies and

development of robust transport modes, it has not been able to augment the capacity and

has lagged behind the economic needs leading to congestion, asset deterioration and high

level of energy consumption, concomitant pollution and accidents. Rural areas still have

inadequate connectivity especially in State like UP with a predominated rural base and the

share of road traffic continues to grow unabated. Although successive ‘Five Year Plans’

planned and earmarked adequate resources and investment in capacity building measures

still there are gaps. The public sector is mainly and largely responsible for transport

infrastructure development and is facing major resource problem.

In the recent years, economic liberalization has resulted in accelerated growth and

therefore, increasing need for mobility is felt at urban and regional levels. Transport is a

derived demand and we have to match our resources and potential to upgrade the quality

of our road infrastructure. The new economic policies have opened new avenues for private

participation in transport, thus, augmenting resources along with increasing the scope of

commercial orientation to transport operations. At the same time, this development may

lead to greater concentration of industrial location around existing growth centers and

encourage an unrestrained growth in various modes of transport vis-a-vis their social cost.

The augmentation of capacity in the various sectors would require huge investments. While

Public sector would continue to play important role in building transport infrastructure, it is

necessary to involve private sector more aggressively. This will help meet investment deficit

gap in the Infrastructure sector, improve efficiencies and provide competition to Public

Sector players which will in turn lead to better quality of service. While developing

capacities of various modes of transport, the focus would be on modernization and

technological up-gradation. This would be strongly supported by investments in

maintenance of assets to ensure their reliability and continued efficiency.

11.2. IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES

11.2.1. Mode of Financing

It will be practically impossible to take up development of the majority of the high grade

stretches on BOT (Toll) mode. Further, BOT Annuity projects essentially require deferred

payments to be made to the concessionaire from the public funds over a period of years.

The Government needs to view this aspect carefully and recognize that the Government

funding for road infrastructure projects would also require substantial up-scaling, if the

sector is to be developed for broader objective of achieving socio-economic development

and maintaining the targeted growth trajectory.

11.2.2. Mode of Implementation

The present policy of the Government is deciding mode of implementation of road projects

on BOT (Toll), BOT (Annuity) and Item rate / EPC contract basis. This results into lot of

delays in implementation of projects. It is, therefore, desirable that based upon the detailed

project reports, evaluated through a robust review mechanism, State Government may

decide the mode of implementation of the projects upfront so that valuable time is not lost.


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11.2.3. Use of Technologies

The use efficient technological innovations shall be explored to have a real time monitoring

of projects, timely necessary corrective actions, fast decision making, etc. Advanced Traffic

Management System (ATMS) shall be gradually introduced in major stretches.

11.2.4. Packaging

Shelves of projects to be taken up on BOT (Toll) mode may be created: and such Road

Packages may be tried out on pilot basis to design large, economically viable and

technically feasible packages.

VGF funding may have to be pre-approved for certain packages. However given the size of

these packages the VGF amount may be substantial putting a burden on Government

finances. Alternatively/Additionally alongside real estate development may be clubbed into

the packages to improve viability.

11.2.5. Environment & Social Aspects

11.2.5.1. Environmental Aspects

There is necessity to review the existing policy of environmental clearances as this causes

substantial delay in project award and implementation. It may be worthwhile to consider &

de-link the grant of environmental clearance from the forest clearance and exempt

environmental clearance, if widening is within the standard RoW.

It may be in the interest of the projects to prescribe a rational timeline for processing and

finalizing the various clearances. MoEF may also consider enhancing the powers of

Regional Offices of MoEF for granting forest clearance. Standard conditions may be laid for

forest clearance.

It has also been observed that wildlife proposals also take more than 3 years for clearance.

It is proposed that resurfacing, strengthening and widening be allowed on the existing roads

where no diversion is involved. Also, once the approval is granted for certain alignments, for

doing surveys, the proposal should not be rejected subsequently on some other grounds. A

time line is drawn for granting wildlife clearance.

11.2.5.2. Land Acquisition related Issues

Land acquisition is a long drawn process. One of the major reasons for delay in

implementation of road projects is because of the delay in acquisition of Land required for

the project. When the projects are taken up for implementation UPPWD needs to ensure at

least 80 % of the required land is available at the time of award of the projects, with a

requisite information and concrete steps to e taken so that balance 20 % of the land shall

be available within a period reasonable enough so as not to delay the implementation of the

projects as per the stipulations of the Contract / concession agreements (say for e.g.

balance land should be available within Appointed Date for BOT projects or as per

provisions of EPC Agreements so as to enable Contractor to get all the required ‘Work

Fronts’ within stipulated periods, etc.).

The possibility of allowing value added services (Real Estate Development, Recreational

facility etc.) on part of the land acquired for the purpose of developing Highways need to be

explored so that sweetener could be offered to the potential concessionaires for developing

the stretches on BOT (Toll) mode options.

It is of paramount importance to regulate and control the development activities in land

abutting the Right of Way (ROW) so as to ensure availability of adequate clearances,

enhance safety of traffic, obviate possible encroachments of ROW in future, etc.

Accordingly, State legislations are required to be promulgated to this effect. It needs to be

ensured that the Land Acquisition is also amended accordingly in conformity with the same.


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11.2.5.3. Rehabilitation & Resettlement (R&R) of Project affected persons

It needs to be ascertained that a uniform R&R policy is evolved for all types of projects,

applicable to the UP State, so that the compensations offered to the project affected

persons are uniform and not at variance. Necessary legislations are required to be

disseminated considering, its vast socio-economic implications, land severance issues,

consequences due to change in land use, etc., apart from environmental issues. The State

Government may explore the possibility of inducting the affected persons also as

stakeholders in some of the major projects in offering.

11.2.6. Consolidation & Preservation of Road Assets

11.2.6.1. Preservation of Road Assets

UPPWD through its Data Collection Study by Scott Wilson have compiled traffic census

data and road condition data compiled for SH and MDR and needs to be taken up for ODRs

likely to be upgraded in next 5 years so that details are available to them upfront.

A system / model have to be established for the prediction of the functional and structural

condition of pavement, as built, after providing different types of maintenance measures or

rehabilitation treatments. A uniform format should be developed to compile the information

related to Right of Way (ROW) and other assets starting from Panchayat / Block levels, etc.

and compiled for the entire State through its UPPWD administrative Divisions / Zones. The

data can be developed and made available in electronic form with facility for periodic

updating on real time basis; as and when land is acquired to augment the existing ROW;

further, there should be facility to add the inventory almost on real time basis.

It needs to be ensured that there is proactive support from State Administrations and Law

enforcing machineries in the ground to remove encroachments, etc., could be effectively

implemented. Further, District Administrations must ensure, as a part of its overall duties


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and responsibilities, that the provisions of these legislations are not violated. Similar

frameworks may be evolved for all categories of roads.

The huge road asset should be maintained in proper serviceable conditions without

sacrificing their functional requirements. The focus has to gradually shift from traditional

departmental based maintenance also to those based on outsourcing, whereby, the

expertise and skills of the experts available in the construction industry shall be fully

harnessed and utilized to bring in cost effectiveness in maintaining the road assets being

developed at enormous costs in most optimal manner with least maintenance efforts.

Pavement Preservation Strategy’ has to be evolved supported by extensive R&D in the field

including simulations for accelerated testing of pavement performance analysis may also be

done in order to predict long term pavement performances. It is suggested that an Asset

management framework is created that encompasses:

i. Performance matrix and encourage concessionaires to benchmark with best O&M

practices across the world.

ii. Responsibility metrics to assign responsibility to each of the stakeholders in the process

iii. Framework is created for resourcing aggregates: cement, bitumen, POL, etc.

11.2.6.2. Institutionalization of the system of database

The current system of collecting the data on the road-sector is ad-hoc and is not conducive

to taking rational decisions in planning and prioritizing development and maintenance

strategies and programmes. There should be a system for institutionalizing the database for

the road sector. Further, such system should also enable proper integration of the database

of the State level and their storage with adequately equipped data warehousing.

11.2.7. Over Loading of Vehicles

The issue pertaining to plying of overloaded vehicles on highways has been raised from

time to time. Consultants also observed overloading of commercial vehicles on most of the

State Roads during the conduct of primary traffic and travel surveys. Various High Courts

and Supreme Court has categorically made it clear that detection of overloading and

collection of compounding fee does not mean authorization for the overloaded vehicles to

ply. The excess load needs to be necessarily offloaded before allowing the vehicle to

proceed further. Thus the Hon’ble Supreme Court restated the provisions of the Motor

Vehicles Act, 1988 and directed all the States to implement the same in letter and spirit.

The factors cited for inability to enforce the law regarding mandatory off-loading of the

excess loads are such as indivisibility of the load, lack of infrastructure to off-load and store

excess loads etc. Implementation of the following measures may help in solving the

problems:

a. Measures for offloading and handling of the excess load

b. Planning of necessary infrastructures for effective implementation of the policy

c. Financing and Implementation of the policy.

11.3. INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT ISSUES OF UP PWD

11.3.1. UPPWD - A Brief History

Credit goes to Lord Dalhousie of organizing provincial PWDs in India in place of Military

Boards. UP PWD became fully functional in 1854, looking after Roads, Bridges, Buildings,

Irrigation, Power and Local Self Government engineering works like water supply and

sewerage. It is worthy of note that the Chief Engineer used to be the Secretary PWD, but in

1887 a separate post of Secretary, PWD was created. In subsequent years, subjects like

Irrigation & Power, Water Supply and Sewerage were taken away from the PWD and

Separate organizations were created for these sub-sectors. Thus, PWD retained only the

core function of Buildings and Roads.


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In recent times, some public sector undertakings were set up to look after specialized

functions. These are:

Uttar Pradesh State Bridge Corporation (UPSBC)

Uttar Pradesh Rajkiya Nirman Nigam (UPRNN)

Uttar Pradesh State Highways Authority (UPSHA)

Uttar Pradesh Expressways Industrial Development Authority (UPEIDA)

Other Departments, viz, Rural Engineering Services Department, District Rural

Development Agencies (DRDAs), Mandi Parishads, District Boards, Agriculture department,

Irrigation Department (looking after Canal-Roads) are also engaged in the construction and

maintenance of roads.

11.3.2. Current Functions of UPPWD

i. PWD is responsible for the construction repair and maintenance of roads and State

owned buildings. It is also responsible for other related structures financed from the

State and Central budget allocations in UP.

ii. PWD also carries out construction and repair work for other Government Departments,

Autonomous Bodies, Local Bodies, Boards, Corporations, Trusts, Institutions or

Corporations as deposit works after levying agency charges as per Government rules.

iii. PWD is also responsible for the execution of development, renewal and repair works of

National Highways (NH) within the State of UP. This work is financed through the

Ministry of Shipping, Road Transport and Highways (MoSRTH), Government of India,

after levying agency charges at the rates agreed between the State and Central

Government. The NHs being administered by the National Highways Authority of India

(NHAI) does not come under the purview of the UPPWD.

iv. PWD also takes up construction works of Buildings, Roads and Bridges as Relief

Works in the event of famine and floods. Such works are executed as per UP Famine

Code and rules thereof framed from time to time by the Government.

v. As a construction wing of GoUP, PWD has to undertake the following additional

functions:

- Technical guidance to various Institutions, Local Bodies and other Government

Undertakings, including execution and guidance to Local Bodies and Police

Department about safety for VIP visits and Traffic Management related activities

during special events;

- Research Activities pertaining to Buildings, Roads and Bridges;

- Operating and Maintaining ferry services;

- Works of rostrum and barricading at the time of VIP visit as desired by District

Administration;

- Running and maintenance of Circuit Houses, Rest Houses, and Inspection

Bungalows; realization of rent of Government buildings under PWD; assessment of

rent and valuation of private buildings acquired by the Government on hire or

purchase. Maintenance and upkeep of Minister’s bungalows and Government

residences of MLA’s, MLC's and other office bearers nominated by Government for

Issue of condemnation report of unserviceable Government buildings.

vi. PWD also maintains a register of land, buildings and properties belonging to the

Government under the charge of PWD.


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vii. PWD is also responsible for ensuring that no encroachment or structure, whether

temporary or permanent, shall be erected on the land and property in the charge of

PWD. It shall also be responsible for removal of all such encroachments as per the

rules.

11.3.3. Vision Statement

The Consultants propose that the UP PWD should adopt the following Vision Statement for

Roads governing the road policies and practices for the next 20 years:

‘The road network of Uttar Pradesh will be developed by the year 2031 to provide a well-

developed hierarchy of primary and secondary roads, with surface, free from potholes,

having good riding quality, congestion free, involving private sector in implementation of

construction and maintenance to serve majority of towns and villages, road connecting all

habitation of more than 250 in the line of guidelines of Govt. of India. The road system will

complement other modes of transport and will provide economic, fuel efficient, safe and

quick means of transport. The technology of road construction and maintenance will

maximize the use of local available materials and shall not affect the environment and fully

comply with land acquisition and rehabilitation and resettlement policy of Government’.

11.3.4. SWOT Analysis

Before attempting suggestions for Institutional Development, a brief SWOT Analysis

(Strength/ Weakness/ Opportunities/ Threat) of the UPPWD organisation is presented in

succeeding paragraphs.

11.3.4.1. Strength

Long history of existence

The UPPWD, established in the mid Nineteenth Century, is one of the oldest in the country

and has a long history of evolution, administration and adoption of innovative practices.

High Quality of Engineers

UP State has had the privilege of having some of the best Engineering Colleges of the

Country. The Thompson College of Engineering at Roorkee is one of the oldest and well-

known Engineering Colleges of India. It has now become an Indian Institute of Technology

(IIT). The Civil Engineers passing out from Roorkee have formed the back-bone of the

PWD for several years. Besides Roorkee, the Banaras Hindu University, IIT Kanpur and

NIT Allahabad have contributed to the engineering cadre of UP PWD.

Thus, the quality of engineers in the PWD is of very high standard. Many illustrious

engineers have occupied the post of Chief Engineers/ Engineer-in-Chiefs. This is one of the

major strengths of PWD.

Contribution of UP PWD Engineers in India’s Road and Bridge Building Technology

There are many contributions of UP PWD Engineers in India’s road and bridge building

technology. A selected few of these are:

i. Since UP has a scarcity of stone materials, UP PWD engineers have pioneered the use

of bricks in pavement building. Flat bricks and brick-on-edge have been extensively

used as base courses. Similarly, over-burnt brick ballast (Jhama) has been used for

building up of the sub-base and base courses.

ii. UP PWD has pioneered that use of bricks on the shoulders (patries).

iii. Built-up-spray Grout (BUSG) has been a cheaper specification for strengthening of

pavements. BUSG has been the contribution of UP PWD engineers.


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iv. In the field of well foundations, the contribution of UPPWD engineers in designing has

been outstanding. The determination of scour depth, the active and passive earth

pressures with the details such as cutting edge, well kerb, well cap etc. are all

contribution of UP PWD and has helped in preparing IRC guidelines for design of well

foundation in India. It may be mentioned that well foundations, a unique foundation

technology practised in India, have been the contribution of UPPWD Engineers.

Contribution of UP Bridge Corporation

The high level of knowledge of building bridges available in the PWD led to the setting up of

the UP Bridge Corporation. This organisation, drawing heavily from the core strength of the

PWD, has built several bridges of outstanding nature not only in UP but also in other States

of India and in other countries.

The first major cement concrete pavement

UP PWD can take pride that the first modern cement concrete pavement in India, designed

on the basis of Westerguard analysis, Taylor and Sutherland’s equations and Bradbury’s

equation for temperature stress was laid between Agra and Mathura in the early 1960s.

UP PWD Research Institute

The UP PWD Research Institute has contributed to highway research in India in a large

measure. Many distinguished engineers of national fame have adored the office of the

Director of the Institute.

India’s Road Development Plan (1981-2001) (Lucknow Plan)

The distinction of being named “Lucknow Plan” for the Road Development Plan (1981-

2001) goes to the UPPWD who organised the IRC Session at Lucknow in 1984, deliberated

upon the long-term Road Development Plan and finalised the document. (Ref 1)

Development of Expressways

To UP credit should be given for conceptualizing, planning and construction of the Taj

Expressway on a Public-Private-Partnership basis. The facility is world-class and is

triggering off the development of new townships along its alignment. Several other

Expressways are being planned. No other state in India has drawn up such an ambitious

plan for construction of Expressways.

11.3.4.2. Weaknesses

Absence of Long-Term Plan for Development

So far, the UPPWD have not evolved any long-term strategy and plan for the development

of the roads in the State. Through India’s Road Development Plan, Vision: 2021, prepared

by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways and published by the Indian Roads

Congress in 2001 (Ref 2) had made the following recommendation:

“Parallel actions need to be taken by the States. These are

i. Preparing the State Road plans for 20 years for the respective State including the

District Master Plan for Rural Road Network after obtaining inputs from the Collector,

Zilla Parishads, Heads of Departments in charge of relevant Sectors

ii. Arranging Local Level discussions of Non-officials and District Level officers through the

Collectors to obtain views / suggestions on the Master Plan at District level and similar

interaction at State Level

iii. Obtaining approval of the State Government to these plans and issue of formal

Government Resolution / Notification authenticating such master plans.


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Though UP has prepared district level rural roads plan, at the instance of the National Rural

Road Development Agency, such plans for other categories of roads (State Highways and

Major District Road) have not so far been prepared. This has been a serious impediment in

developing UP’s Road System. Of course the present study, though belated, is expected to

overcome the past neglect.

Poor Record of Road Safety

Uttar Pradesh has a poor record of road safety. Out of 39,033 fatalities on State Highways

in 2011, UP’s number is the highest at 6,350 deaths (Ref 3). As regards accident severity

(persons killed per 100 accidents), the national average is 28.6, whereas the figure for UP

is 73.5. (Ref 3). Though there are a number of causes that lead to accidents, lack of

engineering measures is a major one, which is the responsibility of the PWD. It is obvious

that the UPPWD has to evolve a practical approach and scientific approach to make their

roads safe.

Absence of Centralised Data on Traffic Census

For planning for improvement of highways, the basic data needed is the classified traffic

volume at a number of selected points on the network. For National Highways, the count

stations are selected and traffic volume counts are taken regularly twice a year. A similar

system should have been adopted by the States. Karnataka state has selected the

permanent count stations on its State Highways, Major District Roads and Rural Roads.

This system has unfortunately not been introduced in the UPPWD. Some results are

available through the efforts of Consultants. But these do not meet the needs of lay-term

planning. After discussions with State engineers they stated that this practised was followed

earlier but was discontinued, thereby, UPPWD does not have the histological traffic census

data to compute the growth trends so that we can forecast the traffic data with elasticity

parameters. This database will also be useful to validate and update the Master Plans on

regular intervals with minimum investments and therefore, save a lot of time and resources.

Absence of Data on Road Inventory and Condition Survey

Though data on road inventory and condition survey is available on a few roads through the

work of Consultants, data on the entire network is not available. In the present study, the

Consultants have put in special efforts to bridge the gap, but it needs to be emphasized that

inventory and condition survey data should be collected on all important roads covered by

the Master Plan.

Maintenance practices are old and not cost-effective

In one of recent studies on Institutional Development of the UPPWD (Ref 4) it is indicated

that out of 85,977 employees of the PWD, gang labour strength is 62,370. Thus 73 per cent

of the PWD staff work as gang labour. It is well recognized that the gang labour system of

road maintenance is a very old system. The gang labour is not fully engaged in the

maintenance operations throughout the day and come for work at their own chosen time.

The tools they have are not efficient. Pot-hole repair mix is prepared in a crude way heating

aggregates on a metal sheet and adding bitumen and mixing with hand tools. Plate

compactors are not available. In short, the gang labour system is not technically efficient

and is not good value for money spent. Many states have stopped recreating gang labour

and have adopted mobile maintenance units mounted on a trailer towed by an agriculture

tractor and having a small emulsion cold mix unit an air compressor, jack hammers, a plate

compactor, a sprayer of emulsion etc.

UPPWD must adopt these modern techniques and gradually do away with the gang labour

system.


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11.3.4.3. Opportunities

Since the State has inadequate, congested poorly designed and maintained road network,

several un-bridged crossings, roads through congested towns and cities which have to be

converted to bypasses, several road-railway crossings where ROBs are needed, the

opportunities for the UPPWD to overcome these deficiencies are immense. The very fact

that UP Govt. have desired a Master Plan to be prepared for the development of roads in

the next 20 years is an indicator of the good intentions of the Government. What is required

is to seize the opportunity and deliver the goods.

11.3.4.4. Threats

The only threat for the implementation of the road development plan is the availability of

total commitment and political will to seize the opportunity. The Consultants earnestly make

a plea to the Government to understand the seriousness of the poor condition of roads in

UP and lend full support to the PWD in implementing the Master Plan in phases over the

next 20 years.

11.3.5. Suggestions for Re-organising the PWD

We again reiterate that the Engineer-in-Chief should be vested with the powers of Secretary

and shall report to the Chief Secretary & Principal Secretary of the State and the PWD

Minister. The suggested organisation with hierarchy is presented in Figure 11.1.

FIG. 11.1 SUGGESTED HIERARCHY FOR PUBLIC WORKS

11.3.5.1. Suggested Structure of PWD

The Engineer-in-Chief will be supported by a number of Chief Engineers. Chief Engineer

(Buildings) and Chief Engineer (Mechanical and Electrical) shall continue as at present. As

regards the Roads Sector, following Chief Engineers are recommended:

i. Chief Engineer (Planning)

ii. Chief Engineer (Externally Funded Projects)

iii. Director, Research Institute

iv. Chief Engineer (Traffic Engineering and Road Safety)

STATE CABINET CHIEF SECRETARY

MINISTER FOR

PUBLIC WORKS

OTHER

MINISTERS

OTHER

MINISTERS

OTHER

MINISTERS

Engineer-in-Chief-cum

Secretary, PWD

Principal Secretary


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v. Chief Engineers of Work Zones

vi. Director, Highway Engineers Training Institute

vii. Chief Finance and Accounts Officer

viii. Chief Engineer, PPP

ix. Chief Engineer, Quality Management

x. Chief Engineer, Rural Roads

xi. Chief Engineer (Designs)

Figure 11.2 presents the suggested organization structure the functions of each constituent

illustrated below:


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Fig. 11.2 ORGANISATION STRUCTURE OF ENGINEER-IN-CHIEF

ENGINEER-IN-CHIEF PWD

Chief Engineer

(Planning)

Chief Engineer

(Externally Funded Projects)

Chief Enginner (Traffic Engineering and Road Safety)

Zonal Chief Engineers Works

Chief Engineer

(Public Private Partnership)

Director Research Institute

Director Highway Engineers Training Institute

Chief Administration, Finance and Accounts

Chief Engineer

(Buildings)

Chief Engineer

(Mechanical and Electrical)

Chief Engineer

(Rural Roads)

Chief Engineer

(Design)


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11.3.5.2. Chief Engineer (Planning)

This position is an important one and the officer is vested with the following functions:

i. To examine the long-term Plan prepared by Consultants and to recommend to the

Government to notify new SHs, MDRs and ODRs. In this process the entire SHs, MDRs

and ODRs should be renumbered on a rational basis.

ii. To phase the investment proposed on the Core Network and Up-gradation into

convenient five year phases, which may coincide with the State’s Five Year Plans.

iii. To prepare the budget outlay for original works for each year.

iv. To collect and update the traffic census and road inventory data on each road included

in the Master Plan.

v. To computerize the entire data pertaining to the PWD. A note on the Computerisation of

the PWD is given in Appendix 11.1.

vi. To handle the work relating to Road Asset Management (RAM). A note on Road Asset

Management is given in Appendix 11.2.

vii. To identify the works to be proposed for (i) External Funding (ii) PPP mode of

implementation.

11.3.5.3. Chief Engineer (Externally Funded Projects)

In UP, several projects can be posed for financing from external funding from agencies

such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. Preliminary selection of such

schemes will be suggested by the Chief engineer (Planning). The projects will be further

screened by the Chief Engineer (Externally Funded Projects). The Feasibility Reports and

Detailed Project Report will be got prepared through Consultants conforming to the

guidelines of the funding agencies. Once the projects have been cleared for funding, the

Chief Engineer will prepare Tender Documents, invite bids and award the contracts as per

guidelines of the funding agency. The Chief Engineer will prepare Land Acquisition and

Rehabilitation and Resettlement (R&R) of Project Affected Persons. He will help the

agencies to get Environmental clearance. During the execution stage, the Chief Engineer

will get the works supervised through Consultants. He will be responsible for preparing

progress reports to be sent periodically to the funding agencies. He will ensure that “as

built” drawings and design reports are preserved for future reference.

The projects can be managed through a robust programme by a Programme Management

Consultants – the process which is being recently followed & adopted up by DMICDC for

implementing infrastructure projects in the vicinity of DFC Corridors. This will also be

appreciated by multilateral Funding Agencies like ADB and World Bank.

11.3.5.4. Director, Research Institute

UP is fortunate to have a full-fledged well-equipped Research Institute located adjacent to

the PWD premises. This institute carries out research on all sectors such as roads,

buildings and irrigation. But the bulk of the research is related to roads, and hence the

Consultants suggest that the Research Institute be under the PWD, Engineer-in-Chief and

be headed by an officer of the rank of Chief Engineer. The Consultants recommends that

the following topics be taken up for detailed research on road subjects:

i. Use of cement, lime, flyash, chemicals for stabilisation of roads, thus dispensing with

the use of costly stone aggregates.

ii. Development of procedures for overcoming the drawbacks of sodic soil.

iii. Measures to overcome the “boggy” action commonly noticed in UP.

iv. Use of white-topping as an alternative to bituminous overlays.

v. Study of economics of flexible versus cement concrete pavement for new pavements.

vi. Innovative technology options.


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11.3.5.5. Chief Engineer (Traffic Engineering and Road Safety)

UP has a poor record of road safety. To deal with this serious problem, a separate Chief

Engineer (Traffic Engineering and Road Safety) should be made responsible to deal with

the following issues:

i. Identification of Accident Black Spots and measures to improve the safety

ii. Establishment of Traffic Aid Posts including providing well equipped Ambulances in

critical locations

iii. Conducting Safety Audit of Roads

iv. Analysis of each accident report collected by the Police and analysing the causes and

engineering measures to overcome the deficiencies.

v. Providing street furniture

vi. Providing Rest areas

11.3.5.6. Chief engineer (Work Zones)

Since UP is a large state with over 71 districts, it is preferable to have Zonal Chief

Engineers. This system is already in existence and should be continued. The Zonal Chief

Engineers should be in overall charge of all works within their respective jurisdiction,

including (i) survey and investigations (ii) preparation of DPRs (iii) execution of works (iv)

quality management (v) progress reporting.

11.3.5.7. Director, Highway Engineer’s Training Institute

The Consultants are of the view that the UP PWD engineering cadre should be reorganized

are under:

i. A cadre of Class I and Class II Engineers should be formed in the PWD. Class I

entrants should be recruited through a competitive examination and will join as

Assistant Executive Engineers. They should be promoted as Executive Engineers after

3 years. Class II cadre can be formed of candidates securing lower ranks in the

competitive examination, and will join as Assistant Engineers. These will be eligible to

be promoted as Executive Engineers after 5 years of service. Class II cadre is also

open to diploma holders, who join as overseers/ junior engineers, on the basis of a

fixed quota. The above system is followed successfully in MORTH, CPWD,

Maharashtra PWD and Gujarat PWD.

ii. A systematic training programme should be instituted in the PWD. A Highway

Engineers Training Institute should be set up on the lines of NITHE (now called Indian

Academy of Highway Engineers-IAHE) in NOIDA, Delhi and Training centres in

Maharashtra and Gujarat and CPWD. The training should cover at entry training & in-

service training at various levels

The UPPWD should also depute its engineers to the training programmes being offered by

NITHE (IAHE) and CRRI. The Training Institute should be headed by a Director of the rank

of a Chief Engineer. The UPPWD should formulate guidelines for review of its cadre as

suggested at (i) above and get the same approved by the Government at an early date.

11.3.5.8. Chief Finance and Accounts Officer

The officer shall be responsible for the following tasks:

- Budgeting for original works and maintenance works.

- Mobilisation of resources, their disbursements and appropriate accounting.

- Management of the Road Fund, interacting with other members of the Committee

appointed for the purpose.

- All the accounting procedure should be computerised.


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11.3.5.9. Chief Engineer, PPP

It is abundantly clear that the funds required for the modernization and maintenance of UP’s

roads are huge and the requirements cannot be met with from budgetary resources alone.

The one promising alternative is to involve the private sector to participate in the process

through various options such as: BOT (Build Operate and Transfer), DBFO ( Design, Build,

Finance and Operate), Annuity Payments & Output and Performance Based Maintenance

Contracts.

11.3.5.10. Chief Engineer (Quality Management)

Quality Management of road works which will be taken up on a large scale in the coming

year is a matter of great importance. Quality Management is achieved in three different

tiers:

First Tier: Contractor exercises quality control measures.

Second Tier: The supervisory staff (either PWD engineers or supervisory consultant)

makes independent checks and carry out independent tests.

Third Tier: The entire set of test results available from Tier 1 and Tier 2 are analysed at a

central place, and some random tests are conducted.

It is for the third tier that a Chief Engineer is separately earmarked and is in charge of the

total quality management. The random checks by the Chief Engineer at Tier 3 will instil a

sense of responsibility at Tiers 1 and 2 and will make the tests authentic.

11.3.5.11. Chief Engineer (Rural Roads)

Rural Roads under PMGSY programme, NABARD funding and other sources are currently

being looked after by various agencies. It is felt that the entire Rural Road programme be

centralized with a Chief Engineer in charge.

11.3.5.12. Chief Engineer (design)

Most of the progressive PWDs in the country have a Central Design Office (CDO) where

complicated designs of bridges, fly-overs, highway elements are carried out. It is strongly

recommended that the UPPWD also set up a Central Design Office under a Chief Engineer

(Design) to whom the various PWD engineers can request for assistance in evolving

complicated designs. The CDO will be the repository of the best and latest developments in

design.

References

i. Road Development Plan for India (1981-2001) (Lucknow Plan), Published by the Indian Roads

Congress, New Delhi, 1984.

ii. Road Development Plan, Vision: 2021, Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Published by the

Indian Roads Congress, New Delhi, 2001.

iii. Road Accidents in India, 2011, Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Transport Research

Wing, New Delhi, 2012.


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Appendix 11.1

COMPUTERISATION OF PWD

A quantum jump in the functioning of the UPPWD can be achieved by computerisation of its working in a modern way so that the public works can be delivered timely and cost-effectively and transparently. The Consultants strongly advocate a project of computerisation of the PWD to be taken up on the lines of the Assam PWD Computerisation Project (APCP) which is a major land-mark in PWD’s working in India. The Project can be posed for funding from the World Bank.

The computerisation will lead to:

Standardised work activities

i. efficient flow processes for approvals, with lesser paper work and clear lines of communication

ii. data base with easy accessibility by the headquarters and field offices for all project related activities

iii. improved project management including planning, scheduling, contract supervision, execution and resource utilisation

iv. improved road maintenance management

v. efficient procurement of services of consultants, contractors and vendors

vi. reduction in physical travel of officials within the state for frequent meetings, particularly of Executive Engineers and Superintending Engineers

vii. transparency in the activities of the PWD with provision for enabling public interface

viii. improved services to the other Government Departments (Finance, Planning, Transport, etc.)

ix. assistance in tendering

- prepare Specifications, BOQ items for bids - receive quotations - technical evaluation - compare financial bids - issue Letter of Acceptance, Work Order

x. assistance in Project Management

- create project details such as cost, contract value, time schedule - create budget - interface PRIMAVERA software for project management

xi. assistance in Finance and Accounting

- create and maintain finance budget - generate bills, invoice - payment to Contractors/ vendors - receive rents, hire charges etc. - maintain bank accounts

xii. assistance in DPR preparation

- prepare estimates - accord Administrative Approval and Technical Sanction


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xiii. assistance in Asset Management

- create and update road inventory - create annual maintenance programme - distribute maintenance budget - prepare DPR for contract maintenance work

xiv. assistance in Quality Control

- create and maintain Quality Register - take action on non-conformance - track action taken

xv. assistance in Inventory and Store

- create and maintain inventory - maintain divisional/ central store - issue to projects - return from projects

xvi. maintain web connection between field offices and Headquarters

xvii. GIS data on road inventory

xviii. to store As-built drawings of a Project

xix. to preserve topographic data, designs, ROW data

xx. to preserve all relevant Codes, Guidelines and Specifications so that Engineers can access it from any site


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Appendix 11.2

ROAD ASSET MANAGEMENT (RAM)

The large network of roads and their components (land, bridges, traffic aids, pavement,

equipment etc.) represent huge assets of the Government. The optimisation of the

preservation, upgradation and timely replacement of the assets through cost-effective

management, programming and resource allocation on business principles should receive

the GOUP’s attention. The Consultants strongly recommend the GOUP to start a project to

adopt a RAM which will consist of:

- enunciation of goals

- inventory of assets

- valuation of assets

- quantitative condition and performance measures

- performance prediction models

- links to the budget

- engineering and economic analysis tools

- presentation of outputs

- continuous feedback procedures

The Consultants recommend that this project can be made a component of World Bank

Funding.

11.4. PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP (PPP) POTENTIAL

11.4.1. Introduction

Transport share spending as a share of total public investment in India has been declining

steadily over the years and as a result, there is a severe shortage of public funds available

for road construction and maintenance. Private financing for road improvements thus

constitutes a critical element of NHAI’s strategy for funding projects under the NHDP and

the Government of India has introduced a number of policy initiatives aimed at encouraging

the level of International, as well as, domestic private sector participation in the construction

and maintenance of roads on various PPP formats.

Figure 11.3 - illustrates the framework for assessing the potential of a transportation project

to be delivered as a PPP. This framework includes both the contextual factors and various

institutional issues likely to be encountered in developing and implementing a PPP project.


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Figure 11.3: FRAMEWORK FOR PPP POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT

11.4.2. Appraisal of State Road Fund Policies

We have noted that the UP State have taken a number of initiatives in this direction, such

as:

- UP Road Development Policy (2012 Recent)

- Guidelines for BOT Policy (1998)

- Creation of the State Road Fund (1998)

- UP State Highway Authority (2004)

The strategy that UP Govt. intends to adopt is the creation of separate infrastructure

development department for innovative & transparent PPP initiatives. The Government has

formulated detailed guideline for all aspects of PPP.

11.4.3. State Road Sector

State Highways (SHs) and Major District Roads (MDRs) constitute the secondary system of

road transportation in the country. State roads carry heavy to medium traffic. It is assessed

that the secondary system carries about 40 percent of the total road traffic.

The status of MDRs is particularly worrisome. One of the main reasons for this is that the

funds made available for these roads are inadequate. Some of the major constraints faced

by the State in the execution of the programmes;

(i) Lack of Policy and Planning

(ii) Control on Pre-Construction Activities

(iii) Capacity Constraints

(iv) Lack of Finances

(v) Weaknesses of Consultancy and Contracting Industry.

11.4.4. Planning for the Future

The recommendations of 12th Five Year Plan have focussed on Stae Highways

Development and suggested that there is a need now to identify a Core Network of major

arterial routes. It is important that Core road network should have a Corridor Concept.

Holistic planning needs to be undertaken professionally through proven expertise, involving

SH and MDR under this concept. It should be possible for traffic to move at an average

Potential for PPP

Institutional Context

Project Type & Scale

Stages of Project

Development Cycle

Nature - Level of Private Sector

Involvement

Sources of Funding


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speed of 60-70 km per hour, so that commercial vehicles being the carriers of economy can

cover a distance of 500 to 600 km in one day.

The ‘Core Network’ of State Roads should, essentially, comprise of SHs and MDRs, which

have high volumes of traffic or have such potential. Further, entire length of existing 4-lanes

and stretches on which 4-laning of SHs and MDRs are being / to be undertaken should

essentially be part of the “Core Network”. All SHs / MDRs having traffic beyond a certain

threshold (say e.g. about 5,000 PCUs per day AADT at present) may also be included

under ‘Core Network’. Surfacing and 2-laning of such roads under “Core Network” may be

done on priority, if already not done. Priority may be given for development of “Core

Network”. Further, priority may be given for roads under ‘Core Network’ for their future up-

gradation as National Highways.

The 12th Five Year Plan also envisages alike NHDP, States should formulate ‘State Road

Development Programme/Project (SRDP) to be developed in defined phases. The total

network of SHs and MDRs should be identified by each State as a long-term vision

(preferably by 2031). The policy should be to cover the entire “Core Network” under this

programme as far as possible.

In relation to protection of environment the Concept of Green Highways is another initiative

that can be appropriately planned and designed. States may take up some Pilot projects

and implement the same.

11.4.5. Strategies for Implementing State Roads through PPP

The Central Government has created a window for providing viability gap funding (VGF) up

to an amount of 20 percent of the project cost. Additional cost of 20% of project cost can be

provided by the State Government to the private entrepreneur. By a careful concession

design and phased approach for development, it should be possible to cover some part of

SHDP through private sector financing by leveraging the budgetary resources. State

Highway Development Plan (SHDP) would need the support of the Government Budget.

For this, the support of the World Bank/ADB towards financing of these roads needs to

continue. Preparing a blue print of identified major State Road Sections for PPP, PSP will

help the State to achieve its part financing needs. Implementing the projects would enable

State to achieve its growth objectives.

BOT (Annuity) Models being currently practiced needs a review with respect to cost and

level of service vis-a-vis Government regular budgeted and Externally-Aided projects. This

will help to firm up clear opinion. There has been hesitancy from some State Governments

on annuity type of projects, as it is generally considered as a form of deferred liability.

Undertaking study across all the States and Government agencies will not only help in

taking an opinion but also will enable formulation of guidelines for deciding on the extent of

such projects.

The Planning Commission has formulated a Model Concession Agreement (MCA) for

undertaking capacity augmentation of National Highways and State Highways on BOT

basis. This agreement provides for a sound legal framework and addresses the concerns of

various stakeholders in a balanced manner. They have also standardized the documents

on procurement of projects as also procurement of services of technical, financial and legal

advisors. The State Government may continue to take advantage of these documents with

slight modifications relevant to their environment. The Model Concession Agreement (MCA)

has to evolve on continuous basis through a process of consultation with all the

stakeholders.

Some of the key financing issues faced by the State are due to underdeveloped bond

market which has constrained PPP road projects to mainly depend on debt from

commercial banks. What we lack is the presence of long-term savings institutions, such as


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insurance companies and pension funds having long-term liabilities, with appetite for long-

term debt instruments in PPP project funding. Commercial banks are also increasing facing

limits on their exposure to infrastructure sector, which also affect funding of road PPP

projects. Commercial banks also face issue of asset liability mismatch as PPP projects

require long term funding. Debt to road PPP projects is classified as unsecured by

commercial banks since no tangible physical security is available to lenders. Due to this

such debts carry higher interest rates and quantum limitations.

The State may also explore other sources of revenue for PPP projects such as advertising,

real estate development, way side amenities, mobile towers, additional stamp duty on road

side properties etc. The implementing recommendations of committees on financing of PPP

infrastructure projects and other related initiatives which are being debated with the

stakeholders may also be referred by various expertise(s) and debated all over.

Alternatively, if the State Government desires it can involve experts to evaluate the

procedures and study ‘Project Specific Value for Money (VFM) Analysis to decide on the

maximum level of Government support for the project rather than restricting to a general

cap of 40% of total project cost.

11.4.5.1. Monitoring Performance of Private Developers

The various Performance Indicators for Monitoring can be categorised as;

Timeliness: Timeliness of tasks and reporting

Value for Money: cost justifies the quality and work output as per market standards and

best practices.

Quality: work meets standards and requirements

Responsiveness: coordination with awarding Authority and ability to find win-win situations

Reputation: Market reputation and perception

Experience and Skills: Level of experience and skills suitable for work.

Capacity: Resources and organization capacity varying with variety and size of work

Dispute History: track record in disputes and litigious nature.

11.4.6. Review of PPP Initiatives in Other States in India

A sound infrastructural foundation is the key to the overall socio-economic development of

a State. Availability of adequate and efficient infrastructural set up not only promotes rapid

industrialization, but also improves the quality of life of the people. This sector includes

railways, roadways, ports, aviation, power, telecommunication, etc. The Central, as well as,

few State Governments have successfully harnessed private sector partnerships in road

development in India. Though, recently due to economic slowdown the overall enthusiasm

has ebbed and we look forward to lessons learnt from earlier innovations and new set

guidelines will emerge with more explicit risk sharing elements between Government and

Private sector so that participation will be more resolute with definite contributions.

11.4.6.1. State Level Initiatives in PPP

- A substantial share of PPP projects are being funded through multi-lateral assistance,

state budgetary support etc.

- Projects being taken up through PPP are increasing in size/investment

- VGF has enabled taking up of State Level projects that would have, otherwise been

commercially unviable

- Funding for State Sector Road Projects an issue and lenders concern driven by lower

credit worthiness of most of the State Authorities vis-à-vis National Authorities, lack of

homogeneity in procedures adopted by various States.


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The leading users of PPP in road sector have been Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka

and Tamil Nadu. In this section we have described some PPP initiatives taken at State level

for the implementation of road projects:

RAJASTHAN

Announced State Road Policy in 1994 to facilitate the entry of private sector in roads.

Rajasthan Road Development Act was enacted in 2002 to encourage greater level of participation of private sector in the development of road sector

State Road Development Fund Act, 2004 enacted under which non-lapsable State Road Fund (SRF) created by levy of 50 paisa cess on petrol / diesel. SRF is being leveraged to take up large / mega State Highways project.

MADHYA PRADESH

Madhya Pradesh has constituted a State Level Committee (SLC) under the chairmanship of the Chief Secretary for all infrastructure projects being undertaken in PPP mode. All PPP Projects requiring VGF require approval of SLC.

To offer a proper financial support to public private partnerships in infrastructure, the central government has devised a scheme known as VGF (Viability Gap Funding). Under this, the central government provides a grant up to 20% for infrastructure projects.

To address the acute shortage of funds for repair and maintenance of roads, in September 2001 the Government of Madhya Pradesh decided to utilize the Mandi Funds (created for development of roads for Krishi Upaj Mandi Market area) for repair and maintenance of State roads

The Government of Madhya Pradesh (GOMP) issued a Gazette notification on 15 March 2000 to levy a market fee of 2 per cent on every sale of “agriculture produce” brought from outside the State or that were sold in the State. The fees was to be collected by Mandi Committees and were to deposit 85 per cent of the fee to the MP State Agriculture Marketing Board (Board) under the head “Kisan Sadak Nidhi” (Mandi Funds) for development of roads of Krishi Upaj Mandi Market area and balance 15 percent was to be retained by the board for agriculture research and infrastructure development.

MAHARASHTRA

The Government of Maharashtra has finalized its policy and procedures for taking up the road projects through private sector participation. The salient features are as follows:

A Cabinet Sub-Committee is formed to take fast decisions related with infrastructure projects.

Powers of approving privatization projects costing up to Rs. 25 crore are delegated to the P.W. Department. For projects costing more than Rs. 25 crore, approval from the Cabinet Sub Committee is taken.

The Bombay Motor Vehicles Tax Act (Sec. 20) is amended to make it possible for the Entrepreneur to collect toll.

The Government has finalized its Toll Policy. The toll rates for different category of vehicles have been fixed for a block of 3 years with the increase of 6% per annum to be effected after every 3 years.

Separate Toll structures for projects costing up to 20 crores and for projects costing from 20-75 crore have been finalized. For projects costing more than 75 crore toll rates are fixed for individual projects.

The Government has also decided to provide viability gap funding to the proposal under Public Private Participation. The Works costing Rs. 864 crore with viability gap funding of Rs. 351 crore have recently been approved under this scheme. To expedite the decision, for projects to be taken through privatization a separate cell has been created in the P.W. Department at Government level.

KERALA

Created Kerala Road Fund in 2001.

The objective was to mobilize non-budgetary resources for the development and maintenance of the state road network

The Kerala Road Fund was created to demonstrate greater commitment to the development and maintenance of the PWD road network and to mobilize greater non-budgetary resources

TAMIL NADU

Formed Tamil Nadu Road Development Company (TNRDC), a JV of TIDCO and IL&FS (50:50) to develop road projects

East Coast road project developed on PPP

PUNJAB

Formed an apex body for overall planning for infrastructure sectors

Designated as PPP cell for infrastructure development in Punjab


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Provide a regulatory framework to attract private investments into the infrastructure sectors and act as a single window clearance.

Levy cess on food grains through their market committees and the proceeds are utilized for the construction of link roads and their maintenance in rural areas

Some states in India levy cess on food grains through their market committees and the

proceeds are utilized for the construction of link roads and their maintenance in rural areas.

The states of Punjab and Haryana started these practices in the early 1970s. Rajasthan

followed immediately thereafter. Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have also joined such

moves. Funds in such cases are managed by market committee boards. In the sugar-cane

belts of some states, sugar cooperatives contribute funds for repair and maintenance of

roads. Similarly, in coal field areas, mining authorities contribute towards road rehabilitation

and maintenance. Some States levy additional charges on road users in various ways to

generate extra revenue for the road development:

- Uttar Pradesh: Entry tax of 4 per cent on value of goods brought in State territory

Additional sales tax of 4 per cent on diesel and 6 per cent on petrol for road sector

- Maharashtra: Cess of Rs. 1 per litre on petrol and diesel

- West Bengal: Cess of Rs. 1 per litre on petrol and diesel

- Madhya Pradesh: Surcharge of 15 per cent on petrol and diesel

11.4.7. NH Policy (Draft) for PPP

In order to meet the huge investment requirements in the sector, Government has taken a

number of measures to attract private sector participation. The Central Government has

amended the NH Act to permit private entrepreneurs to undertake NH projects on a BOT

basis. The salient features of the MORTH policy on private sector participation are as

follows:

- The policy of privatisation will be implemented by the NHAI and in exceptional cases by

the State Public Works Departments.

- The basic principles in identification of NH projects for private investments would be

that the project is an approved project of the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways

and it is capable of yielding adequate financial return.

- The Government will provide support by carrying out all preparatory works, such as:

- Feasibility study

- Land for right-of-way and road side facilities

- Relocation of utility services

- Cutting of trees

- Removal of encroachments and resettlements and rehabilitation of persons

affected from the projects. Depending upon financial viability, the cost for the

above activities may be recouped from the project.

- Suitable traffic support/guarantee will be provided on a case to case basis.

- Exemption will be given from import duty on identified high quality construction plant

and equipment.

- Foreign Direct Investments up to 74 per cent would be permitted automatically. Beyond

that, proposals would need clearance of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board.

- A five year tax holiday is available followed by a further five year period of 30 percent

exemption and this concession can be availed of in any 10 consecutive years during

the first 20 years of operation. (Section 80 IA (12) (ca) of the Income Tax Act, 1961).

- Up to 40 percent may be excluded from Income Tax of the income derived by financial

institutions from finance they provide for infrastructure projects.


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- Exemption is available from Income Tax on the income from dividend and interest on

long term capital gain derived from investments in the form of shares or long term

finance to any enterprise set up to develop, maintain and operate an infrastructure

facility.

- Subscription to equity shares and debentures are eligible for deductions under Section

99 of the Income Tax Act.

- Real estate development can be made integral part of BOT projects to enhance their

financial viability.

- NHAI can provide capital grants to be developers of a road project for project cost on

case to case basis.

- NHAI can participate up to 30 per cent of total equity of a company floated to develop a

road project.

- The ownership of the land for the highway construction and roadside facilities would

continue to vest in Government. Mortgaging and subleasing of this land for raising

finances is not allowed. However, land will be given on lease to entrepreneurs.

- There will be provision of unified check barriers at the inter-state borders for the use of

all government authorities. Such barriers would be located outside the right-of-way with

proper entry/exit layout.

- Disputes resolution and arbitration would be under the Indian Arbitration and

Conciliation Act, 1996. (It incorporates UNCITRAL provisions).

- Entrepreneurs would be protected against force majeure situations including political,

non-political and legislative changes.

- There will be a standard concession agreement, which addresses the concerns of

various stake holders in the project.

11.4.8. PPP on State Highways

Having seen the success of National Highways PPPs, State Governments too have used

the models adopted by NHAI. The typical PPP contract structures include BOT (Toll) and

BOT (Annuity). Recently, states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have gone a step ahead

and adopted innovative PPP models which have not been tried at the Central Level. Tamil

Nadu has adopted a hybrid annuity model for its Outer Ring Road project near Chennai.

The hybrid PPP model for the Greenfield project comprises both grant and annuity. The

State would provide the developer a project support fund during construction and semi

annuity during the operations period. Similarly, Karnataka has adopted the hybrid annuity

model for the upcoming four projects under the KSHIP (Karnataka State Highway

Improvement Project) programme being funded by the World Bank. The government would

pay 50% of the construction cost during construction and pay annuity during operations.

In the case of a PPP project, the private sector has a borrowing cost which is higher than

that of a State Government. Hence, a fraction of the cost on project financing in case of

hybrid annuity is less than the normal annuity framework. In the annuity model, the entire

cost of project is financed at the cost of capital of the developer. The annuity receivable by

the developer has to be higher to meet the return expectation which is over and above the

cost of capital.

11.4.9. Recent Empanelment Initiatives by NHAI

Initiatives such as annual pre-qualification of applicants and e-tendering have been

welcomed by the industry. Annual pre-qualification is a process adopted by NHAI recently.

Earlier, developers were asked to submit applications for qualification for each and every

project. That not only made the process repetitive adding to redundancy but also resulted in


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a lot of time being consumed in this task. NHAI, with the advent of request for annual

qualification (RFAQ) process, has released a list of developers who have been adjudged as

qualified for the year with the cost of projects for which they can submit bids. This has

reduced a lot of paper work without compromising the transparency of the bidding process.

With players becoming more and more aggressive in bidding for road projects, developers

feel that the annual qualification process has helped them assess competition better.

Developers also feel that they are able to assess the appetite of each other developer(s) in

bidding for highway projects.

In addition, the e-tendering mode of submission of bids too has reduced paperwork to a

greater extent. The option for making payment for purchase of applications has also been

made available online to the developer.

11.4.10. Evaluation of Various PPP Models

Public Private Partnerships (PPP) is being regarded as the most viable mode for execution

of infrastructure project at the Central & State level. PPP enable various agencies

responsible for surface transportation infrastructure to involve private firms to a greater

extent performing various functions. The private sector is better able to accomplish while

retaining those functions the public sector is best at performing. Figure 11.4 below

summarizes the major phases that comprise the delivery of infrastructure projects and the

relevant PPP formats.

The PPP models vary from short term simple management contracts (with or without

investment requirements) to long term form. These models vary mainly by:

- Ownership of capital assets

- Responsibility for investment

- Assumption of risks

- Duration of contract

The PPP models can be broadly classified into four categories as discussed below:


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Figure 11.4 MAJOR PHASES OF ROAD PROJECT DEVELOPMENT & DELIVERY

Pre-

planning &

Acquisition

Finance Design Construction Operation &

Maintenance

Upkeep &

Improvements

Specialized

Consultants

Design-Build Private Ownership

of Assets

Design-Build-Operate-Maintain

DBFO / BTO / BOT / BOO / BOOT

Design-Build-Finance-Operate/ Built-Transfer-Operate/Build-Operate-Transfer

Build-Own-Operate/Build-Own-Operate-Transfer


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Management Contracts:

A management contract is a contractual arrangement for the management of a part or

whole of a public enterprise by the private sector. Management contracts allow private

sector skills to be brought into service design and delivery, operational control, labour

management and equipment procurement. However, the public sector retains the

ownership of facility and equipment. The private sector is provided specified responsibilities

concerning a service and is generally not asked to assume commercial risk. The private

contractor is paid a fee to manage and operate services. Normally, payment of such fees is

performance-based. Usually, the contract period is short, typically two to five years.

Turnkey:

Turnkey is a traditional public sector procurement model for infrastructure facilities.

Generally, a private contractor is selected through a bidding process. The private contractor

designs and builds a facility for a fixed fee, rate or total cost, which is one of the key criteria

in selecting the winning bid. The contractor assumes risks involved in the design and

construction phases. The scale of investment by the private sector is generally low and for

a short-term. Typically, in this type of arrangement there is no strong incentive for early

completion of a project. This type of private sector participation is also known as

Design & Build.

Lease:

In this category of arrangement an operator (the leaseholder) is responsible for operating

and maintaining the infrastructure facility and services, but generally the operator is not

required to make any large investment. However, often this model is applied in combination

with other models such as build-rehabilitate-operate-transfer. In such a case, the contract

period is generally much longer and the private sector is required to make a significant level

of investment.

Concessions:

In this form of PPP, the Government defines and grants specific rights to an entity (usually

a private company) to build and operate a facility for a fixed period of time. The Government

may retain the ultimate ownership of the facility and/or right to supply the services. In

concessions, payments can take place both ways: concessionaire pays to government for

the concession rights and the government may also pay the concessionaire, which it

provides under the agreement to meet certain specific conditions. Typical concession

periods range between 5 to 50 years. It may be noted that in a concession model of PPP,

an SPV may not always be necessary. The various types of concession agreement or

arrangements with their variations and combinations may be arrived at by the Government

Agency or Local Authority for undertaking infrastructure projects:

- Build-and-Transfer (BT)

- Build-Lease-Transfer (BLT)

- Build-Operate- Transfer (BOT)

- Build-Own-and-Operate (BOO)

- Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT)

- Build-Transfer- Operate (BTO)

- Contract-Add- Operate (CAO)

- Develop-Operate-Transfer (DOT)

- Rehabilitate-Operate-Transfer (ROT)


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- Rehabilitate-Own-Operate (ROO)

Consultants recommend the following strategy (flow chart) to set up a viable PPP

procedure suitable to road system and conditions in Uttar Pradesh.

Viability of road transport project as a PPP depends on number of factors that relate to the

legal and institutional environment within which the project will be developed and the

specific attributes of the project itself. The criterion that is deemed necessary to assess the

suitability of project for development using PPP approach and its likelihood success are

listed below:

The consultants have screened and listed the road projects that could be taken up for PPP.

Once the roads are identified the next step will be to develop model packages for different

road sections to be taken up for PPP with bundling and unbundling of packages. The exact

viability can only be assessed after the preparation of detailed project reports and phasing

of investments and returns.

11.4.11. Specific Issues on PPP

11.4.11.1. Alternate Revenue Mechanisms

Alternative revenue sources could be explored from;

i. Advertisement rights

ii. Allow real estate development along the Highway Corridor, especially large townships

connecting the terminal ends of the sections

iii. Way side amenities and fee from ROW users like fiber optic cables, mobile towers etc.

Threshold Criteria for

Considering PPPs

Decision Factors for

Selecting PPP Approach

Project Scale

Project size in terms of cost and finance

Public Demand

Economic development potential

Satisfy transportation mobility need

Project Stage & Risk Profile

Preliminary concept planning

Responsibilities of public sector

Project Revenue & Funding Potential

Tolls, availability payments, joint development, ROW

Preliminary

project

planning

Establish

Eligibility of

project for

PPP

Preliminary

project

planning

Solicit

proposals

from short

listed

prospective

private

providers

Select best

developer/

private

player

Establish

PPP

agreeme

nt with

contract

term


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11.4.11.2. Environmental, Forest & Wildlife Clearances

It has been observed that various PPP projects face issues relating to delays in receiving

environmental, forest or wild life clearances and permission to cut trees etc. Process for

taking such clearances from concerned department at State level should be initiated at an

early stage of the project cycle.

11.4.11.3. Need for a Regulator

There is no independent regulatory authority for Roads & Highways Sector. Current

arrangement results in a potential conflict as the rule making body is also the implementing

body and there is no independent assessment of its performance across various

parameters. Potential Key functions of the Regulator could be;

- Tariff Setting

- Regulation of Service Quality

- Assessment of Concessionaire Claims

- Collection and Dissemination of Sector Information

- Service-Level Benchmarks

- Monitoring Compliance of Concession Agreements

11.4.11.4. Capacity Building Initiatives

Some of the key considerations for the same are:

- Enhancing cross-functional understanding in implementation agencies through training

and development programmes

- Restructuring of Government Institution in order to best use and develop capacity to

raise resources, vendor management, concessionaire management and

implementation of projects

- Segregating project implementation from project formulation and therefore, the need for

a separate procurement division.

- Decentralization of power and enhanced availability of skill manpower at regional levels

- Adoption of professional management principles and manpower

- Creation of databases as policy and decision support system

- Development of streamlined processes & systems leveraging information technology.

- Better synchronization between State level agencies and disciplines for sharing

resources and knowledge

- Training policy focusing on needs of training at entry, on job site and periodic refresher

courses.

- Encouraging Engineering and Technical Institutions to attract students in Highway

Engineering Profession with skill sets in Finance and Management besides

Engineering.

- Respective institutions to carry out Training Needs Analysis to identify the skill gaps

with a definite and approved training calendar.

- Involvement of contractors / developers in developing skilled resource pool on a

sustainable basis.

- Apprenticeship development by contractors/developers with provisions for subsequently

deploying trained manpower to authorities. Allow only trained technicians from the

concessionaires in the field jobs in addition to engineering pool strengths.

11.4.11.5. Tolling Issues

Government

The ‘Road Pricing’ and ‘Rate of User Fee’ should be fixed purely on the basis of the

benefits accruing to the users on account of up-gradation of the facility as compared to

existing facility. The Government may also consider undertaking a sound ‘Cost Allocation

Study’ of providing and maintaining roads due to cars, buses and trucks.


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- The existing policy of fixation of toll rates needs to be reviewed especially for 2-lane

sections and bypasses, permanent bridges, etc. Being upgraded

- Similarly, the reduction in rate of tolling after recovery of capital cost for public funded

projects or after expiry of the concession period for private investment projects need to

be reviewed.

- Standardizing electronic and cash tolling system by using RFID based tolling for

electronic toll collection and one toll card for toll payment across all/major toll plazas.

- Weigh in motion systems should be used as primary overweight detection equipment,

which should divert only the overweight vehicles to static scale systems.

- To develop holistic approach towards toll road management and ensure proper

maintenance and timely overhauling of tolling system

- Leakage in tolling is a cause of serious concern, full automation of tolling should be

planned and implemented at all levels

- Electronic Toll collection (ETC) system need to be progressively introduced in all the

sections in order to avoid congestions at toll plazas and facilitate smooth flow of traffic.

- If the system is fully access controlled ‘Closed System’ of tolling need to be introduced

- The “Congestion Pricing” policy may be adopted for levy of additional toll, especially for

Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs). This would enable collection of additional revenue, help

in protecting environment and maintaining the life span of road.

- In case of significant and unexpected increase in traffic on any stretch under DBFOT

(toll), the upside is partially shared with the Authority. Such sharing is linked with the

capacity of the road and in such situation the project anyways faces issues relating to

service levels, capacity augmentation and termination. A suitable methodology is

required to be devised so that such upside can be effectively shared with the Authority

without unfavourably affecting the rights of the Concessionaire.

Private Concessionaire

- There is leakages in toll collections because of presence of alternate routes to various

stretches

- In extreme situations, it is difficult to take a decision from user benefit perspective as

viability & profitability of project is directly linked to toll collections

- Changes in traffic profile & level based on decisions of various Government agencies

relating to development of region, development of alternate roads, support to economic

activities etc.

Users

- Users’ willingness to pay affected by factors including socio-economic compulsions

- Modal Concession Agreements provide for partial linkage of toll rates with Wholesale

Price Index (WPI) over and above some fixed increment every year. Such continuous

increase in toll rates might not be always acceptable to users especially when it is not

linked to service levels.

- Users are required to pay the toll rates applicable on roads even during the construction

stage. During such period service levels on the roads decline and payment of full toll

rates during such period adds to the inconvenience faced by the users.

11.4.12. Model Package for Core Network Roads on State Highways

11.4.12.1. Economic Analysis

Given the importance of infrastructure investment to National development vis-à-vis the

scarcity of resources and competing demands from various sectors, it becomes extremely

important to allocate available resources in the most beneficial manner amongst various


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sectors and within a sector, amongst various schemes. In view of the above, it is necessary

to ensure that the projects selected for investment are evaluated thoroughly to determine

the economic and social benefits offered by the project.

11.4.12.2. Evaluation Framework

Generally the framework adopted for the economic analysis is cost-benefit analysis, which

sets a monetary value where possible on all financial, economic and social costs and

benefits over the lifetime of the project. The underlying principles for this analysis are as

follows:

- The lifetime of a road project for the present analysis is considered as the period for

which reliable traffic forecasts can be made. A discount rate is then applied to future

economic costs and benefits to arrive at the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project.

- The Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) of the project is also computed.

- The discount rate is expressed in real terms.

The concept of economic feasibility is to maximize the returns on investments. This is

accomplished by determining the appropriate improvement proposal that leads to minimum

total transport cost, which comprises of two basic components shown below.

Road Agency Cost Construction Maintenance

Road User Costs Vehicle Operating Costs Other User Costs (Travel time etc.) Accidents

The reduced costs are treated as benefits calculated over the project life. The results are

expressed in Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) and Net Present Value (NPV).

Normally Economic Evaluation will be carried out based on incremental costs & benefits

comparing the total net benefits in Without project situation with With Project situation. A

detailed accountof economic anlysis has been caarrried by the consultants on identified

core road network and presented in detail in Chapter 8 of this report.

11.4.13. Financial Analysis

The main objective of financial analysis is to assess the likely returns to the investors under

realistic conditions. For this purpose the prevailing market rates and return on debt and

quity issues in local capital markets are the important factors. In the present study the

financial viability of the project is assessed on the basis of financial internal rate of return on

investments and Rate of Return on Equity, which is estimated on the basis of cash flow

analysis. Other factors which were ncessary to check the viability are the payback period of

the Debt / Loan and Debt Service Covergae Ratio (DSCR).

11.4.13.1. Approach

The main objective of financial analysis is to examine the viability of implementing the

project on BOT basis. The analysis attempts to ascertain the extent to which the investment

can be recovered through toll revenue and the gap, if any, be funded through Grant /

Subsidy. The viability of the project is evaluated on the basis of Project FIRR (Financial

Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) on total investment. The FIRR is estimated on the basis of

cash flow analysis, where both costs and revenue have been indexed to take account of

inflation. Financial analysis has been carried out with debt equity ratio of 70:30.


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11.4.13.2. Capital Cost for Financial Analysis

The total cost of the project includes civil works involved in widening of roads, structures,

etc. The consultant have identified list of State Highways to be developed on PPP. The

selection process was based on the economic analysis criteria and consultants have

selected State Highways which carry an ADT of more than 10,000 PCU per day so that a

minimum toll able traffic needed for returns on the investments is considerable and spread

over a considerable section. The identified sections are presented in Table 11.1.

State Highways under the consideration of UPSHA will be finally added to the length of SH

to be taken for PPP implementation. The total length selected for PPP on SH is 1396 km

with a total cost of Rs 11,034 crore. The cost of projects taken up by UPSHA for PPP

implementation for length of 1028 km for 11 State Highways is Rs 6026 crore. The

feasibility studies for above 11 roads have been taken up by UPSHA.

In addition to this 4 roads of UPSHA are under construction for which concessions have

been signed (Length 462 km, Cost 3209 crore). Therefore, total PPP potential on State

Highways shall be Rs 17,061 crore. The final viability will only be possible after the detailed

project reports are prepared for these potential projects so that viability can be assessed

more accurately.

Table 11.1 IDENTIFIED STATE HIGHWAYS FOR PPP IMPLEMENTATION

SH Name Districts Length

(km)

Total Cost (Rs.

crore)

SH-1 Sonauli Nutanwa Gorakhpur Balia Road

Ballia 61 467

SH-12 Panipat Khatima Road Muzzaffarnagar, Bijnaur 153 1178

SH-18 Meerut-Bulandshahar-Badaun Road Bulandshahar, Badaun 112 856

SH-22A Palwa-Taapal-Aligarh Aligarh 65 482

SH-26 Pilibhit Puranpur Lakhimpur Balrampur Basti Road

Balrampur, Siddhart Nagar, Basti

98 695

SH-29 Lipulake Bhind Road Shahjahanpur, Farrukkabad 144 1154

SH-33 Pilhibhit Bareily Bharatpur Road Bareily, Badaun, Kanshiram Nagar, Mahamaya Nagar, Mathura

234 2107

SH-40 Lucknow Mohan Nanamau Bela Etawah

Lucknow, Unnao 98 845

SH-41 Tihri Paudhi Ramnagar Moradabad Road

Moradabad 44 349

SH-42 Hamirpur-Rath-Gursahayganj-Jhansi Road

Hamirpur 105 785

SH-46 Pukhraya Ghatampur Bindaki Road Ramabai Nagar, Kanpur, Fatehpur

83 641

SH-49 Moradabad Haridwar Dehradooni Road

Moradabad Bijnaur 63 463

SH-62 Agra Bah Kachauraghat Road Agra 71 533

SH-76 Bijnor-Chhajalat Road Bijnor, Moradabad 65 481

Total 1396 11,034

11.4.13.3. Expenses

Expenses can broadly be classified based on the phases in which they are incurred, viz.

construction period expenses and operation & maintenance period expenses.

- Construction Period Expenses

- Preliminary and pre-operative expenses

- Contingency allowances

- Interest during construction period

- Operation and Maintenance Period Expenses


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- Toll collection expenses

- Administrative expenses for day-to-day operation

- Maintenance expenses, which include routine and periodic maintenance

- Interest expenses incurred for servicing term loan.

11.4.13.4. Operations and Maintenance Cost

Routine maintenance costs comprise of maintenance of the pavement, collection of litter,

lighting, traffic management (policing), accident repairs and all ancillary works including

beautification.

The periodic maintenance costs include cost of overlay, repair/ renovation of road furniture,

drains, buildings etc. The periodic maintenance includes periodic renewals at every 5th

years.

11.4.13.5. Toll Revenue

The toll revenue is the product of the forecast traffic expected to use the road and the toll

fee for the vehicle category. The toll revenues computed are given in PPP model

developed. The toll revenues were estimated based on the detailed assessment of the

feasibility conducted by UPSHA on various State Highways to be taken up for

implementation through PPP.

The basic toll rates were taken from the recent studies conducted by UPSHA on various SH

and for 4 projects for which the concessions have already been awarded. More details can

be entailed during the implementation stages depending upon the cost escalation factors

prevalent.

Type of Vehicle Base rate of fee in Rupees per km

Car, Jeep, Van or Light Motor Vehicles 0.80

Light Commercial Vehicles, Light Goods Vehicles or Mini Bus

1.20

Bus or Truck 2.40

Heavy Construction Machinery(HCM) of Earth Moving Equipment (EME) of Multi Axle Vehicle (MAV) having 3 to 6 axles

4.00

Oversized Vehicles (Seven or more Axles) 4.80

11.4.13.6. Financial Viability

The following assumptions are taken into consideration for the financial analysis:

i. Debt - Equity ratio: 70:30

ii. Subsidy - 20%

iii. Concession period (Including 24 months construction period) – varies between 15 to 25

years

iv. Escalation - 5%

v. Interest on Debt - 12%

vi. Interest during Construction - 12%

vii. Project Phasing: First year - 20%, Second year – 40% & Third Year – 40%.

viii. Loan Repayment Period - 10 years

ix. Tax rebate - 10 years (100% exemption for 10 years out of block of say 25 years)

x. Moratorium - 1 year

xi. Depreciation by Straight line method - 95%


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xii. Depreciation by Written down value method - 10%

xiii. Financing costs - 1% of project cost

11.4.13.7. Results and Analysis

The main aim of financial feasibility of project is to assess the likely return to the investors

under realistic conditions. The project viability of 12 State Highways was tested for different

scenarios. It is important to ensure that the projects selected for investment are evaluated

thoroughly to determine the economic and social benefits offered by project. The State

Highways has been selected based on EIRR, Tollable Traffic etc. The analysis attempts to

ascertain the extent to which the investment can be recovered through toll revenue and the

gap, if any, be funded through Grant /Subsidy.

The results of financial analysis shows that all the State Highway projects are viable at

varying concession periods and grants from Government. The maximum grant from Govt.

taken for consideration is 40% and maximum concession period is 25 years.

However, when the financial model for all the identified projects was prepared considering

80% of traffic estimate, most of the roads tend to be viable only with 40% Grant. Besides,

grant toll revenue is a vital source of return for the developers. This indicates that when the

detailed project reports are prepared for the identified road projects it is extremely important

to take into consideration following factors:

i. Project road influence area: it is important to decide on the influence area. Normally, a

10 km influence is thoroughly studied with all access links to the highway. There could

be a scenario that a sizable traffic may get diverted when the toll options are

considered.

ii. Correct estimation of traffic from the model: Normally, highway engineers estimate the

traffic projections through an elasticity approach. However, it recommended adopting a

fully-fledged 4 stage model in the influence area with earmarking of traffic zone system

and node link diagram will all major transport (road and rail) nodes identified with

economic linkages.

iii. Socio-economic profile of the influence area: it is extremely important to map the

important industrial, commercial, residential, tourism, agriculture etc. locations to study

the impact of transport demand.

iv. OD pattern: The OD pattern should be distinctly conducted by trained surveyors and

supervised by transport planners. The resultant OD matrix has to be rationalised with

summation of all the locations after carefully removing the duplicate OD pairs.

v. Exact estimation of local traffic, through traffic and net tollable traffic estimates is very

important with the acceptable traffic forecasting parameters

vi. Toll revenue estimation with realistic rates keeping in view the exemptions and social

compulsions.

The results are presented in Table 11.2.


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Table 11.2: RESULTS OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ON SELECT STATE HIGHWAYS

SH Road Name Districts Length

(km) Total Cost

ADT (PCU)

Toll (ADT)

Prop. Toll Stn.

Toll Years

Grant FIRR on Equity

FIRR (pre-tax)

FIRR (post tax)

Average DSCR

SH-1

Sonauli Nutanwa Gorakhpur Balia

Road Ballia 61 466.67 8616 4947 1

17 40% 16.80% 15.94% 14.08% 1.67

20 30% 15.81% 15.73% 13.81% 1.4

20 40% 19.58% 18.24% 16.18% 1.67

25 5% 13.06% 14.07% 12.23% 0.98

25 10% 13.97% 14.75% 12.88% 1.05

25 20% 16.06% 16.27% 14.35% 1.2

25 30% 18.60% 18.07% 16.08% 1.4

25 40% 21.85% 20.29% 18.18% 1.67

SH-12

Panipat Khatima Road

Muzzaffarnagar, Bijnaur

153 1177.62

8793 4998

3

20 40% 14.71% 14.99% 13.10% 1.33

10224 5078 25 30% 14.92% 15.45% 13.56% 1.11

25 40% 17.67% 17.42% 15.46% 1.33

SH-18

Meerut-Bulandshahar-Badaun Road

Bulandshahar, Badaun

112 856.356 16870 6744

9109 3400

2

17 40% 13.80% 14.01% 12.28% 1.48

20 30% 13.44% 14.13% 12.27% 1.24

20 40% 16.94% 16.49% 14.53% 1.48

25 20% 14.96% 13.08% 13.56% 1.07

25 30% 16.66% 14.73% 15.24% 1.24

25 40% 18.74% 16.72% 17.27% 1.48

SH-22A

Palwa-Taapal-Aligarh

Aligarh 65 481.584 10046 5774 1

20 30% 13.06% 13.86% 12.01% 1.22

20 40% 16.52% 16.22% 14.27% 1.45

25 20% 13.97% 14.75% 12.88% 1.04

25 30% 16.28% 16.43% 14.51% 1.22

25 40% 19.22% 18.50% 16.49% 1.45

SH-26

Pilibhit Puranpur Lakhimpur

Balrampur Basti Road

Balrampur, Siddhart Nagar, Basti

98 694.806 6719

14013 1467 6183

2 25 40% 12.86% 13.93% 12.08% 0.96

SH-29

Lipulake Bhind Road

Shahjahanpur, Farrukkabad

144 1154.078 7043 3824

3 25 40% 13.66% 14.52% 12.66% 1.02 7650 3132


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(km) Total Cost

ADT (PCU)

Toll (ADT)

Prop. Toll Stn.

Toll Years


FIRR (pre-tax)

FIRR (post tax)

Average DSCR

SH-33

Pilhibhit Bareily Bharatpur Road

Bareily, Badaun, Kanshiram Nagar, Mahamaya Nagar,

Mathura

234 2106.68

4

20 40% 13.28% 13.97% 12.14% 1.25 10686 5992

8005 3477

12496 6310 25 30% 13.69% 14.51% 12.66% 1.05

13174 6089

25 40% 16.39% 16.45% 14.54% 1.25

SH-40

Lucknow Mohan Nanamau Bela

Etawah Lucknow, Unnao 98 844.86 9922 5366 2

20 40% 13.66% 14.28% 12.41% 1.26

25 30% 14.13% 14.87% 13.00% 1.06

25 40% 16.79% 16.79% 14.86% 1.26

SH-41

Tihri Paudhi Ramnagar

Moradabad Road Moradabad 44 349.35 15898 8148 1

15 30% 14.26% 14.28% 12.31% 1.74

15 40% 19.75% 17.57% 15.29% 2.08

17 20% 13.98% 14.12% 12.39% 1.49

17 30% 17.86% 16.62% 14.70% 1.74

17 40% 22.71% 19.68% 17.48% 2.08

20 10% 14.24% 14.67% 12.79% 1.3

20 20% 17.08% 16.58% 14.62% 1.49

20 30% 20.52% 18.86% 16.76% 1.74

20 40% 24.89% 21.65% 19.35% 2.08

25 0% 15.26% 15.69% 13.79% 1.14

25 5% 16.22% 16.39% 14.46% 1.22

25 10% 17.27% 17.13% 15.18% 1.3

25 20% 19.68% 18.82% 16.79% 1.49

25 30% 22.67% 20.84% 18.69% 1.74

25 40% 26.55% 23.34% 21.02% 2.08

SH-42

Hamirpur-Rath-Gursahayganj-Jhansi Road

Hamirpur 105 784.629 7424 3726 2 25 40% 13.27% 14.23% 12.38% 0.99


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(km) Total Cost

ADT (PCU)

Toll (ADT)

Prop. Toll Stn.

Toll Years


FIRR (pre-tax)

FIRR (post tax)

Average DSCR

SH-46

Pukhraya Ghatampur Bindaki

Road

Ramabai Nagar, Kanpur, Fatehpur

83 641.48 11256 7014

5924 4550

2

15 40% 17.74% 16.37% 14.21% 1.95

17 30% 16.29% 15.61% 13.78% 1.64

17 40% 20.93% 18.57% 16.48% 1.95

20 10% 13.07% 13.87% 12.02% 1.22

20 20% 15.80% 15.73% 13.80% 1.40

20 30% 19.12% 17.93% 15.89% 1.64

20 40% 23.29% 20.64% 18.42% 1.95

25 0% 14.36% 15.03% 13.16% 1.07

25 5% 15.28% 15.71% 13.81% 1.14

25 10% 16.29% 16.43% 14.51% 1.22

25 20% 18.60% 18.07% 16.07% 1.40

25 30% 21.45% 20.02% 17.93% 1.64

25 40% 25.11% 22.43% 20.18% 1.95

SH-49

Moradabad Haridwar

Dehradooni Road Moradabad Bijnaur 63 463.41 23390 9918 1

15 30% 18.43% 16.78% 14.58% 2

15 40% 24.33% 20.29% 17.72% 2.38

17 10% 13.85% 14.04% 12.31% 1.49

17 20% 17.32% 16.28% 14.38% 1.71

17 30% 21.53% 18.94% 16.81% 2

17 40% 26.82% 22.22% 19.75% 2.38

20 0% 14.37% 14.75% 12.87% 1.31

20 5% 15.60% 15.59% 13.67% 1.39

20 10% 16.96% 16.50% 14.54% 1.49

20 20% 20.04% 18.54% 16.46% 1.71

20 30% 23.82% 20.97% 18.73% 2

20 40% 28.64% 23.98% 21.47% 2.38

25 0% 17.37% 17.20% 15.25% 1.31

25 5% 18.42% 17.94% 15.96% 1.39

25 10% 19.58% 18.74% 16.72% 1.49

25 20% 22.24% 20.55% 18.43% 1.71

25 30% 25.59% 22.73% 20.46% 2

25 40% 29.94% 25.45% 22.94% 2.38


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(km) Total Cost

ADT (PCU)

Toll (ADT)

Prop. Toll Stn.

Toll Years


FIRR (pre-tax)

FIRR (post tax)

Average DSCR

SH-62

Agra Bah Kachauraghat

Road Agra 71 532.58 13583 5744 1

20 40% 14.33% 14.73% 12.85% 1.09

25 30% 14.63% 15.24% 13.35% 1.09

25 40% 17.35% 17.19% 15.24% 1.3

SH-76

Bijnor-Chhajalat Road

Bijnor, Moradabad 65 481.127 9724 5510 1

15 40% 15.16% 14.83% 12.80% 1.80

17 30% 14.24% 14.29% 12.55% 1.51

17 40% 18.66% 17.14% 15.17% 1.80

20 20% 14.16% 14.62% 12.74% 1.29

20 30% 17.31% 16.74% 14.76% 1.51

20 40% 21.25% 19.33% 17.20% 1.80

25 0% 13.18% 14.17% 12.32% 0.99

25 5% 14.06% 14.82% 12.95% 1.05

25 10% 15.02% 15.52% 13.62% 1.12

25 20% 17.21% 17.09% 15.14% 1.29

25 30% 19.89% 18.96% 16.92% 1.51

25 40% 23.31% 21.26% 19.09% 1.80

Total 1454 11505.91


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The results of the financial analysis indicate the viability of these sections on the select SH.

The viability will be only possible with minimum of 10 to 20% grant and in some cases with

40% grant from the Government, which can be utilised from VGF models and State

Government contributions. However, it may be added that the exact viability can be only

assessed after the preparation of detailed project reports keeping in view the following

criteria.

i. Project IRR (Post Tax) should be minimum 14%

ii. Return on Equity i.e. Equity IRR should be a minimum of 15%

iii. Payback period should not be more 12 years in a concession period of 20 years

iv. NPV should be positive with a 10% discount rate

v. Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) should be more than 1.33

The above analysis has been done for the road sections on SH with higher EIRR potential

and help UPPWD in assessing the potential for PPP in road sector. These roads have not

been included in the phasing programme because GoUP (UPPWD) has already earmarked

the PPP able roads in the SHDP initiative being organised through UPSHA. In this regard a

notification has also been issued by GoUP. The phasing programme of core network has

focused on the SHDP priorities and therefore, phased the roads accordingly, which can be

taken up and finalised after the viability is assessed through feasibility, detailed reports and

financial models.

It is also recommended to up-grade the identified MDR and ODR to SH which have been

earmarked in the SHDP initiative of GoUP.

11.4.14. State Highway Development Programme (SHDP) of GoUP

The GoUP has issued a notification (23.11.2014) on the development of SHDP for the State

of Uttar Pradesh and identified 86 roads from amongst various categories of roads. Thesse

are mostly SH and MDR to be taken up for PPP evaluation and implementation.

These roads will be maintained by UPPWD till the private sector participation is achieved.

These will include 58 roads from the ambit of State UPPWD and 28 bypases of the major

cities and towns in the State. Out of 58 road sections the road improvements will 4 lanning

for for 20 identified sections and 2 laning for 38 roads / sections.

The list of these roads is presented below in Table 11.3. The implementation has been

initially planned in 5 phases. A total length of 4891 km of PWD roads will require an

investment of about 32,844 Rs crores to be developed through PPP structure. The length

for developing urban bypass in the cities and towns will be separate. This programme has

been considered in the implementation plan and phasing of core network in the succeeding

paragraphs.

Table 11.3: UP STATE HIGHWAY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME

SN Road Name Raod

Category Chainage (F/T)

Length (km)

Cost Rs (crore)

Progress till date Phase

1 Delhi Saharanpur Yamnoutri Marg

SH-57 10.90 217.00 206.10 1735 4 lane with PS Phase 1

2 Bareily Almorah Marg SH-37 3.50 56.00 52.50 355 4 lane with PS Phase 1

3 Varanasi Shaktinagar Marg

SH-5A 0.00 117.65 117.65 1211.96 4 lane with PS Phase 1

4 Meerut Karnal Road SH-82 3.60 90.43 86.83 583.23 4 lane with PS Phase 1

5 Lucknow Hardoi Shahjahanpur Marg

SH-25 103.00 265.40 162.40 1161.62 4 lane Phase 1

1 Aligarh-Mathura Marg SH-80 2.80 42.26 39.46 384.81 4 lane Phase 2

2 Etah Shikohabad Marg SH-85 0.00 51.41 51.41 344.61 4 lane Phase 2

3 Tadighat Baara Marg SH-99 2.00 39.20 37.20 175.85 2 lane with PS Phase 2

4 Muzzafarnagar Saharanpur via Deoband

SH-59 5.91 59.00 53.09 752.88 4 lane with PS Phase 2


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SN Road Name Raod


Length (km)

Cost Rs (crore)


Marg

5 Balrampur Gonda Jarwal Marg

SH-1A 146.00 234.00 88.00 693.82 2 lane + 4 lane Phase 2

6 Akbarpur Jaunpur Mirzapur Dudhi Marg

SH-5 158.00 386.50 228.50 1687 2 lane with PS + 4

lane Phase 2

7 Chandausi Badaun Farrukhabad Marg

SH-43 42.00 206.03 164.03 787.72 4 lane Phase 2

8 Garh Meerut Bagpat Sonepat Marg

SH-14 0.00 90.42 90.42 1026.27 4 lane Phase 2

1 Bahraich Gonda Faizabad Marg


2 Sitapur Lakhimpur Palia Dudhwa Marg

SH-21 51.00 116.00 65.00 737.75 4 lane Phase 3

3 Sitapur Lakhimpur Palia Dudhwa Marg

SH-90 0.00 55.00 55.00 624.25 4 lane Phase 3

4 Vidhamganj Kon Kota Chopan Marg

ODR-10 0.00 38.00 38.00 170.62 2 lane with PS Phase 3

5 Vidman Ganj Kon link road

ODR-29 0.00 22.00 22.00 0.00 2 lane with PS Phase 3

6 Maharajganj Nichnaul Thuthibadi Marg

MDR-26 0.00 25.00 25.00 112.25 2 lane with PS Phase 3

7 MDR-29 MDR-29 47.00 64.00 17.00 76.33 2 lane with PS Phase 3

1 Moradabad Dhampur Bijnaur

SH-49 0.00 62.60 62.60 710.51 4 lane Phase 4

2 Balia Mau Azamgarh SH-34 375.40 270.00 105.40 1196.29 4 lane Phase 4

3 Deoria Gorakhpur SH-1 161.00 116.00 45.00 510.75 4 lane Phase 4

1 Mohanlalganj Morawa Unnao Marg

MDR-52C 0.00 69.74 69.74 791.55 4 lane Phase 5

2 Bijnaur Chajlet Marg SH-76 0.00 57.30 57.30 650.36 4 lane Phase 5

3 Agra Baah Kachauraghat Marg

SH-62 3.71 74.50 70.79 803.47 4 lane Phase 5

4 Lucknow Bangarmau Bilhaur Marg

SH-40 15.00 162.30 147.30 1671.86 4 lane Phase 5

5 Panipat Khatima Marg SH-12 18.00 169.66 151.66 1721.34 4 lane Phase 5

6 Pukhraya Ghatampur Bindki Marg

SH-46 0.45 84.11 83.66 949.54 4 lane Phase 5

7 Aligarh Taptal Marg SH-22A 14.66 79.91 65.25 292.97 2 lane with PS Phase 5

8 Bijnor Gajraula Marg SH-51 65.00 291.85 2 lane with PS Phase 5

9 Allahabad Gorakhpur to Dohrighat Marg


9 Allahabad Gorakhpur to Dohrighat Marg


10 Deoria Balia via Salempur Marg


11 Shikohabad Bhagwaan Mainpuri Marg


12 Fatehpur Baberu Attara Naraini Kartal Marg


13 Bani MohanlalganjGosaiganj Marg

MDR-89C 0.00 33.49 33.49 150.37 2 lane with PS Phase 5

14 Hamirpur Raath Marg SH-42 2.60 169.70 167.10 750.28 2 lane with PS Phase 5

15 Rampur Swar Baajpur Marg

MDR-49W 2.60 43.00 40.40 181.40 2 lane with PS Phase 5

16 Mawana Kithaur Hapur Marg


17 Bulandshahar Anupshahar Marg


18 Bilraya Panwari Marg SH-21 265.40 365.40 100.00 449.00 2 lane with PS Phase 5

19 Azamgarh Sarai Rani Jaunpur Marg

SH-66A 19.92 60.80 40.88 183.54 2 lane with PS Phase 5

20 Ittauja Mohan Kumhrawa Kursi Deva Chinhat Marg


21 Hamidpur Sikanderabad Gulawati Kuchesar Marg


22 Dostpur Akbarpur Jalaalpur Nyori Marg

MDR-155E 0.00 56.50 56.50 253.69 2 lane with PS Phase 5


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SN Road Name Raod


Length (km)

Cost Rs (crore)


23 Lucknow Kursi Mahmudabad Marg


24 Farukkabad Kayamganj Marg


25 Banda Baberu Kamasin Rajapur Marg


26 Saaranpur Nakud Gangoh Thanabhavan Muzzafarnagar Marg


27 Saaranpur Nakud Gangoh Thanabhavan Muzzafarnagar Marg


28 Saina Iradatnagar Shamshabad Fatehbad


29 Dumriyaganj Debhrua Marg


30 Muhamadabad Madhuban Belthara Marg

MDR-94E 0.00 59.18 59.18 265.72 2 lane with PS Phase 5

31 Lakhimpur to Mailganj Marg


32 Sisayiya Dhaurhara Nidhasan Palia Puranpur


33 Hussainganj Hasthigava Irawa Alipur Jut Marg


34 Jalaun Bhind Marg SH-70 0.00 30.68 30.68 137.75 2 lane with PS Phase 5

35 Gola Shahjahanpur Marg SH-93 0.00 58.62 58.62 263.20 2 lane with PS Phase 5

36 Baabatpur Chaubepur Jamaalpur Marg


37 Sitapur Kasta Marg MDR-76C 23.00 66.10 43.10 193.52 2 lane with PS Phase 5

38 Mathura Saadabad Marg MDR-102W 5.00 45.27 40.27 180.81 2 lane with PS Phase 5

39 Chandauli Sakildah Saidpur Marg


Total 4891 32844

11.5. ROAD MAINTENANCE STRATEGIES

The existing road network in Uttar Pradesh is under strain due to phenomenal growth of

traffic, average riding quality, overloading of vehicles with meagre funds for road

maintenance. Many losses occur in valuable vehicle operating and value of time. The

premature failure of roads sometimes results in mobilising huge rehabilitation and

reconstruction costs, creating excessive burden on the plan funds and allocations. Road is

a very costly asset and needs careful attention. Studies undertaken by the World Bank

have shown that one rupee spent on maintenance saves two to three rupees in vehicle

operating cost. It is essential to salvage the roads already deteriorated and guarantee

proper maintenance. A healthy system for road maintenance has to be evolved in the State.

State could consider taking up high traffic density road and bridge projects through tolls

(rates of toll should be affordable by road users - e.g. charging not more than 50 percent of

the perceived savings in vehicle operation cost) and award them to private entrepreneurs

for a fixed concession period of say 15 years. This would relieve the State from

maintenance of such projects as the obligation will get passed on to the private

entrepreneur. However this would vary and will depend on willingness to pay. A pilot project

can be taken up by PWD.

Technology of maintenance operations should also be upgraded by introducing

mechanization gradually e.g. repairing of potholes through machines. Such machines are

now being manufactured in the country. The strategy of the State Government should be to

encourage local contractors (with proven records) to procure such machines. There are

asset finance facilities available to contractors from the financial institutions for such

equipment’s.


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There is a need to establish a ‘Road Asset Management Schemes’ in the State. A few pilot

projects should be undertaken by the UPPWD contracting out performance based

maintenance covering routine and periodic maintenance for a minimum period of say three

years at a time. The salient details are in Appendix 11.4.

Appendix 11.4

A BRIEF ON ‘OUTPUT AND PERFORMANCE BASED ROAD

MAINTENANCE CONTRACT’ (OPRC)

TRADITIONAL ROAD MAINTENANCE CONTRACTS

In the traditional road maintenance contract, the Road Authority defines the scope of work

by preparing a Bill of Quantities (BOQ) for various items of work such as:

- Pot-hole filling

- Crack filling

- Patch Repairs

- Surface Renewals

- Overlays

- Earthwork in shoulders and slopes of embankment

- Painting road markings

- Maintaining Road Signs

- Repairs to bridge components

The Contractor is selected on the basis of his quoted rates for the above defined items of

work. He executes the work in conformity with the specifications for the various items of

work. It has been observed that the traditional road contract system leads to sub-optimal

results because:

- There are deficiencies in the original design

- Contractor’s desire to carry out the maximum amount of works, in order to maximise his

profits.

BASIC FEATURES OF OPRC

In the OPRC, the contract covers several years (10 years or more) during which period the

Contractor is expected to ensure that the physical condition of the road assets are

adequate for the needs of the road users. This type of contract significantly expands the

role of the private sector from simple execution of works to the management and

preservation of road assets. The bidders compete among themselves by essentially

proposing a fixed lump-sum price for bringing the road to a certain level initially and

maintaining it at that level for the entire contract period. The Contractor is thus not paid

directly for the “inputs” or physical works (which he will certainly have to carry out) but for

achieving specified Service Levels, i.e. rehabilitation of the distressed road to pre-

determined standards, the maintenance and operation of the road ensuring certain Service

Levels and specific improvements, all represented in outputs or outcomes, expressed in

Service Level criteria. A lump-sum periodic payment is made to the Contractor to cover all

his physical, technical and managerial services provided by him, except for unforeseen

emergency works which are paid for separately. In order to be entitled to these periodic

payments, the Contractor must ensure that the road assets comply with the Service Levels

prescribed in the bid document. It is possible that during the initial period he will have to

carry out a large amount of work in order to firstly bring up the road to the prescribed

standards, and if he complies with the requirement well initially, his effort in maintaining the

asset for the full contract period will be minimised.


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Under the OPRC, the Contractor has strong incentives to innovate and introduce new

design concepts and new technology, design the facility to optimal condition and provide

the best managerial inputs. It establishes a long-term Public-Private Partnership (PPP),

under which both the Contractor and the Government have long-term goals and

commitments.

The World Bank have come out with a Sample Bidding Document under OPRC (Ref 1).

The performance criteria in the documents are:

- Road User Service and Comfort measures, such as:

- Road Roughness

- Road and lane width

- Rutting

- Skid resistance

- Vegetation control

- Visibility of road signs and markings

- Availability of each lane-Km for use by traffic

- Integrity and soundness of structures

- Response times to rectify defects that compromise the safety of road users

- Incidence management (attendance at road accidents)

- Drainage

Road Durability, measures, which can be expressed in terms such as:

- Longitudinal profile

- Pavement strength

- The extent of repairs permissible before a more extensive periodic maintenance

treatment is required

- Degree of sedimentation in drainage facilities

Management Performance Measures, which, define the Road Authority requires to

govern the asset during the term of the contract, and to facilitate the next tender round.

Requirements should include:

- Delivery of regular progress reports to the Road Controlling Authority

- Inventory Updates and other data sharing requirements

- Maintenance history (so that subsequent tenderers can price the work)

REFERENCES:

(1) Sample Bidding Documents, Procurement of Works and Services under Output-and Performance

based Road Contracts and Sample Specifications, The World Bank, Washington D.C., 2006.


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11.6. ROAD SAFETY FOCUS

There has been tremendous growth of both road network and road traffic in India. The

situation is worsening. The total number of fatalities and injuries in the year 2009 is reported

as about 125,700 and 5,15,500 respectively. The Central and State Governments generally

adopt the standards and guidelines issued by the Indian Roads Congress. There is need to

provide road signs, pavement markings and safety features on State Highways and

selected Major District Roads as a first priority and as an integral part of road development

projects in Uttar Pradesh.

A computer based road accident database management system should be set up as part of

the Road Data Centre. The State Government may provide the financial support for

creation of ‘Centre of Excellence’. It is recommended that road budget should be

earmarked to improve traffic safety on both ‘Plan’ and ‘Non-Plan’ Grants to be spent on

improvement of accident prone spots and other engineering measures on the roads. An

annual provision of a certain percentage of annual budgets especially for SHs and MDRs is

suggested, firstly prioritising on the ‘Identified Core Road Network’ of about 14,000 km.

11.7. ROAD MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

The States should institute simple Road Management System comprising modules such as

road information, traffic information, pavement and bridge management, environmental &

social information.

i. Road Safety Audit should be necessarily compulsory as an integral part of the project

planning, report preparation, appraisal, designing, implementation, operation and

maintenance, etc.

ii. The project should be duly reviewed and necessary corrective actions should be taken

pursuant to the report of the Road Safety Audit at every stage.

iii. The entire core road network is to be subjected to Road Safety Audit (RSA) in a

planned and time bound manner. The RSA shall identify all the potential hazards in

terms of deficiencies observed in the network, which are required to be corrected on

continuous basis for making it safe. The priority roads with high accident records are to

be taken up first in a time bound manner.

iv. RSA is to be carried out for the roads using the trained auditors available in the country

and in accordance with the manual of Road Safety Audit adopted by IRC. All steps of

audit delivery including the initial meeting and audit completion meeting with the

UPPWD must be completed with submission of audit report and exception report etc for

every road assigned for audit. This will bring out more parameters to be adopted and

ensure highest level of safety.

v. No compromise, whatsoever, should be made in essential road safety features and all

safety concerns must be addressed as per the recommendations of the Road Safety

Audit Report. This aspect needs to be critically considered especially while analyzing

project viability also.

vi. An ‘Accreditation Body / Institute’ is required to be created for Road Safety Auditors,

which will control the utilization of these trained auditors and will maintain the register of

certified auditors. Such auditors will have to undergo training as per the adopted and

acceptable guidelines.

Accident Investigation

Accident data recording system is to be adopted uniformly across all roads in a standard

format. This standard format is to be evolved with a consensus and should include all

rational data that are required for accident investigation, reconstruction and also

adjudication of the accident cases. The data collection should be conducted with technical


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instruments such as hand-held GPS having a computer interface in order to collect data

with precision. This should be followed with analysis on standardised formats. The major

observations should be analysed critically to have scope for improvement. The engineers

involved in planning, design, construction and operation of roads and highways in the

country are to be trained on road safety aspects covering engineering measures, safety at

construction sites and hands on experience in road safety audit.

11.8. RESOURCE MOBILIZATION

Budgetary resources for State roads are likely to be limited, compared to requirements.

Hence, generation of additional resources by tapping alternative funding options will be vital

to the development of middle segment hierarchal network. Enhancement of Budgetary

Allocations is also vital and State Government must encourage to prapare detailed Zonal

Plans so that funding agencies appraise them for inclusion. Provisions for the road sector

should be a certain minimum percentage of the Annual Plan of the State. Bulk of the budget

provision should be made for State Highways and Major District Roads & some important

ODRs likely to be upgraded - comprising the Core Network. An up-gradation plan

recommended by the consultants will also need additional resources in view of the fact that

middle segments roads lack behind in quantum and quality. This plan may be notified and

the Zonal Offices encouraged making concrete proposals for up-gradation for formal

approval by the State Government.

Some funds can be tapped from beneficiaries for projects linking the Special Economic

Zones (SEZs), Satellite Towns, Power Plants and other Industries & Trade Centers.

Funding for the last mile connectivity can be obtained from the developer to the extent

possible. It is necessary to explore possibility of ‘Land Value Capture’ and ‘Real Estate

Development’ on case-to-case basis.

Frequent flood etc. resulting major damage to road infrastructure the ‘Calamity Relief Fund’

norms do not provide for permanent restoration of damaged infrastructure and the States

are unable to reconstruct due to paucity of funds. It is necessary to review and amend the

current norms for the ‘Calamity Relief Fund’ so that it becomes possible to restore the

assets to their original condition. The State Government should also study this issue to

generate more funds for such exigencies.

11.8.1. Key Objectives of SCRNMP

The objectives for an efficient implementation programme for the project shall aim to

(a) reduce transport costs of passengers and goods by restoring the most important major

trunk roads to maintainable condition (b) introduce institutional and technical improvements

in the programming of works, including administrative and technical strengths and

materials; and (c) upgrade the capabilities of the local contracting industry to undertake

larger road works as an alternative to inefficient and very small size contracts.

The collective and combined objectives and strategy for success full implementation plan of

SCRNMP aspire to lower the overall transport costs and increasing efficiency of the

transport sector. The project civil works components and institutional development program

are well linked to the project objectives. The first objective rightly emphasized lowering of

transport costs on major trunk roads which is essential for the development of a competitive

economy. The second objective, to introduce institutional and technical improvements is

very important to enhance the organizational capacity which will help to plan and prepare a

maintenance program and will be a major effort to upgrade the UP State’s road network.

Similarly the third objective of upgrading capabilities of the domestic construction industry is

absolutely necessary to implement road works through large contracts as an alternative to

very small contracts.


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11.8.2. Project Rationale and Benefits

Project benefits and impacts are expected on the improved road conditions and connectivity

between major centres and modes of transport which will lower transport costs for

passenger and freight. This will reduce the cost to local industries and of inputs to local

agriculture and the cost of transporting products to markets and shall provide a significant

stimulus to regional economic development. Therefore, core road network will be minimum

need for sustainability and mobility of the regions and sub-regions in the UP State. Coupled

with above aspects and efforts, plan will strengthen the ability of regional based economic

facilities to manage their road assets. The project’s emphasis on transparency and

accountability will have impact on Governance in all areas.

The plan can be implemented by identifying and creating project specific PMUs to be

created in units like World Bank Division, UPSHA etc. with an objective to monitor the

overall performance of the project and its implementation. A number of monitoring and

reporting tasks can be identified;

- Implementation of procurement

- Physical progress of implementation of the project components

- Financial performance

- Compliance with contract administration

- Achievement of overall project objectives.

The investments on improvement to the Core Road Network (CRN) will result in a

considerable saving in fuel costs and vehicle operating costs. The expected yearly return

from fuel savings by investing on improvements to SH is 43% and that from VOC savings is

85%. By improving the MDR’s; yearly return from fuel savings is 31% and return from VOC

savings is 61%.

There will be larger savings in fuel and vehicle operating costs brought about by road

improvements and strategizing investments on core network in various phases (illustrated

and analysed in Table 11.4). It can be further seen from the analysis that large savings in

fuel and vehicle operating costs can be brought about by road improvements and

strategizing investments on core network in various phases. By investing Rupees

91 thousand crore, a fuel saving of Rs 5.9 lakh crore can be achieved over the design

period of 20 years and a vehicle operating cost (VOC) savings of Rs 11.8 lakh crore can be

obtained over a design period of 20 years. The yearly return on investments due to fuel

savings in 34 per cent and 68per cent due to vehicle operating cost savings. Other benefits

such as reduction in accident costs and time saving due to speedier travel will be additional

over these benefits and can be analysed and computed at the time of preparation of

detailed reports and implementation.


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Table 11.4

SAVINGS IN FUEL AND VEHICLE OPERATING COST FROM ROAD IMPROVEMENTS

TO STRATEGIC CORE NETWORK

The investments on improvement to the Core Network will result in a considerable saving in fuel costs and vehicle operating costs.

Road Category

Length (km) proposed for improvement

Cost (Rs-Cr) of Road

Improvements

Cost (Rs-Cr) of Road

Improvements per Km

Fuel Savings (Rs-Cr)

over design period

VOC Savings (Rs-Cr)

over design period

Average Fuel Savings (Rs-Cr) per year

per Km

Average VOC Savings

(Rs-Cr) per year

Yearly return (%) on

investments from fuel savings

Yearly return (%) on

investments from VOC savings

(1) (2) (3) (4)=(3)÷2 (5) (6) (7)=(5)÷19÷(2) (8)=(6)÷19÷(2) (9)=(7)÷(4)×100 (10)=(8)÷(4)×100

SH 7045 44203 6.27 357486 714971 2.67 5.34 42.6 85

MDR 5761 29112 5.05 169345 338690 1.55 3.09 30.6 61

ODR 3254 17747 5.45 64976 129951 1.05 2.10 19.3 39

Total / Average

16060 91062 5.67 591806 1183612 1.94 3.88 34.2 68

It is seen that the yearly return from fuel savings by investing on improvements to SH is 43% and that from VOC savings is 85%.

From MDR improvements, the yearly return from fuel savings is 30% and return from VOC savings is 61 per cent.

It is thus seen that large savings in fuel and vehicle operating costs can brought about by road improvements and strategizing investments on core network in various

phases. By investing Rs 91,062 crore, a fuel saving of Rs 5,91,806 crore can be achieved over the design period of 20 years and a vehicle operating cost (VOC) savings

of Rs 11,83,612 crores can be brought out over a design period of 20 years. The yearly return on investments due to fuel savings is expected to be 34 per cent and 68 per

cent due to vehicle operating cost savings. Other benefits such as reduction in accident costs and time saving due to speedier travel WILL BE additional.


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11.8.3. Implementation Agency and Funding Options

Core road network development will be implemented by Uttar Pradesh Public Works

Departments (UPPWD) and the packages will be capital intensive and requires high

technicalities which shall be through the cooperation of State. Private sector participation

shall be in the areas of high profitability with less/medium risks. The World Bank Division of

UPPWD is an established Division and has the capacity to take up the task of planning,

management, design, construction of the Core Roads in the State.

Total investment required for development/Maintenance of the core roads selected and its

implementation is around Rs. 87,454 crore including land acquisition cost. The investment

in the projects has been programme from base year (2014) to horizon year (2031), with four

phases. The proposed investment work program for improvements of SH/MDR/ODR in

Core Network is given in Table 11.5. Keeping in view the cost of escalation based on WPI

Index (@6%) the total budget allocations needed by year 2031 will about 1.6 lakh crore.

Table 11.5 SUMMARY & PHASING OF PROGRAM (IMPROVEMENT TO CORE NETWORK)

Category / Phase SH MDR ODR

Major River Bridges

Road Over

Bridges Total

Cost Rs. in Crore (2013 Base Year Price Level)

Phase I (2014-17) 15,465 2,558 84 999 501 19,607

Phase II (2018-22) 11,250 7,274 4,977 1,600 576 25,677

Phase III (2023-27) 9,662 11,331 7,643 1,036 923 30,594

Phase IV (2028-31) 7,826 7,949 5,043 693 1,046 22,557

Total Core Network (base price)

44,203 29,112 17,747 4,328 3,045 98,435

Cost Rs. in Crore (with 6% inflation, basis WPI)

Phase I (2014-17) 16,601 2,746 90 1,042 538 21,047

Phase II (2018-22) 14,579 9,426 6,450 2,073 746 33,275

Phase III (2023-27) 16,756 19,650 13,255 1,796 1,600 53,057

Phase IV (2028-31) 18,043 18,327 11,627 1,599 2,410 52,006

Total Core Network (with inflation)

65,979 50,149 31,431 6,541 5,294 159,385

For the funding of the projects and sub projects, Government will be a major source for

development/maintenance of core roads while Private Sector will also play a significant role

in financing the projects. The project financial resources up to the horizon year have been

estimated by considering all possible funding sources. The funding levels are based on the

existing trends of funding through budgetary allocations and expected external borrowings

in the pipeline. The allocation to Core Road Network (CRN) has been prioritised in view of

the fact that that CRN will need more funding for conservation and improvements. After

studying the allocations in various heads available for UPPWD, it will be important to share

these for various interventions like widening / strengthening of CRN and related support

infrastructure like major river bridges and road over bridges to achieve better traffic

management and mobility including safety. The allocations from the current budget heads

shall be from moderate to low sharing depending upon the other factors like composition of


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CRN and its relative importance in uplift of rural / urban economy through sustainable and

safe mobility of regional passenger and goods traffic.

Certain projects can be implemented with participation of different stakeholders so that

funding and responsibilities are shared, accordingly. The core road network finalised can be

implemented by State & Central Government, Private Sector, Support of Multilateral

Agencies and through Viability Gap Funding of the Central and State Government.

-

Figure 11.5 VARIOUS SOURCES OF FUNDING

The implementation of core road network development projects in Uttar Pradesh State

identified will need assistance from Central Government, State Government, contributions

from the Multilateral Funding Agencies and Private Sector Participation. Various sources of

financing are varied and could also be explored from the following options. Each of the

option will require policy and further exclusive studies to determine the revenue potential for

attracting private sector participation. Some are discussed below;

- State Government funding viz. existing road budget and new funding sources

- Another mechanism can be creation of new section of ‘Road Fund’ with a somewhat

independent Governing Board. However, it is advisable to give the Road Fund control

to this Governing Board for Core Road improvements.

- A part of the revenue from the land and property taxes can be earmarked for the

implementation of project. A property tax is generally based on the total value of the

land inclusive of the value of what is built on it. A land tax is generally based on the

value of the land exclusive of the value of the property built on the land.

- Dedicated revenue streams from fuel taxes and sales taxes can help establish a long-

term sustainable basis for financing, development and expansion.

- General sales taxes also represent a significant revenue stream if Provincial Leaders

approve its partial usage for road development projects.

CORE ROAD DEVELOPMENT

Central Government

Viability Gap Funding (VGF)

State Govt. Resources

Mutilateral Agencies

Private Promoters


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- Emission trading: There is future potential for financing road development initiatives

through emission reduction credits.

- Advertising, merchandizing, utility laying rights etc. offers another opportunity to raise

funds for implementing capital.

The Road Network Master Plan emphasizes an integrated program for the modernization,

development and maintenance of State Roads to support the State Government's efforts to

restore its road network to a maintainable level. Because of the extent of the needs and

limited absorptive capacity, the SRNMP is primarily focused on the major trunk roads.

11.8.4. State Budget

The trends in budget allocations for Roads & bridges in Uttar Pradesh (Table 11.6 & Figure

11.6) indicates that for the current year 2013-14 the budget allocation is Rs 8364 Crore, out

of which Plan allocation is Rs 6322 Crore and the it has been observed that budget has

grown with a net increase of 7% on an average between 2007 to 2014 allocations. The

maximum increase was in 2008-09, 14% and 12% observed in years 2011-12 and 2013-14

i.e. for the current year allocations.

Table 11.6 BUDGETARY ALLOCATIONS IN UTTAR PRADESH – ROADS AND BRIDGES

(Rs in Crore)

Year Budget Plan Non-Plan Increase / Decrease over previous years

2006-07 5461 3782 1681

2007-08 6053 4392 1660 11%

2008-09 6929 5403 1526 14%

2009-10 6611 5108 1502 -5%

2010-11 7004 5471 1533 6%

2011-12 7815 6058 1757 12%

2012-13 7459 5582 1877 -5%

2013-14 8364 6322 2042 12%

An insight into allocations in roads and bridges sector in various States (Table 11.7) reveals

that Bihar is focussing on road development with 28 to 30% allocations in road sector.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Rs Crore

Fig. 11.6 BUDGET TRENDS IN UP - ROADS & BRIDGES

Non-Plan

Plan


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Rajasthan has the least Budget of about 8%. UP State has a share of 20% in roads and

bridges alone which is ideal and can be enhanced to 25% to target and prioritise the

development of this sector.

Table 11.7 CAPITAL OUTLAYS IN VARIOUS STATES (Rupees in Million)

STATES

Total Budget (2011-12) Total Budget (2012-13)

Plan Plan

Total Roads & Bridges % share Total

Roads & Bridges % share

ODISHA 59180 14376 24% 72633 16514 23%

MAHARASTRA 198922 28072 14% 212900 30905 15%

MADHYA PRADESH 98607 18549 19% 127971 23428 18%

GUJRAT 147251 18170 12% 214315 20871 10%

BIHAR 119449 38772 32% 141084 38106 27%

RAJASTHAN 85753 6748 8% 97093 13699 14%

UTTAR PRADESH 235899 47584 20% 264481 49863 19%

Source: Reserve Bank of India Publication

The allocations of budget in roads and bridges through various Governmental Sources from

the Uttar Pradesh State and Central Government (Figure 11.7) indicates that there is a

provision of Rs 2140 crore (year 2013-14) for Widening and Strengthening of Roads and

Rs. 240 crore from Central Road Fund spent mostly on State Highways and Major District

Roads. Rs 1093 crore is reserved for allocations in new construction of bridges, which

includes Rs 275 crore financed by NABARD meant mostly for rural bridges.

Taking further insight in the allocations from various heads - was distinctly analysed to

carve out suitable allocations for the ‘Proposed Core Network Development Program’,

which is vital for economic development of State and enhance safe and faster mobility of

passenger and goods traffic on regional road system (Table 11.8 & Fig. 11.8). Therefore, a

provision of 2340 crore in year 2014 can generate about 65,000 crore by the end of year

2031.

45

1093

325

1435

0

2140

0

240

732

69

100

271

40

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Building

New Const of Bridges (including NABARD)

Special Scheme of Purvanchal & Bundelkhand

New Construction of Rural Road

Reconstruction of Rural Road

Widening Strenthing of Roads

Multilateral

Widening Strenthing of Roads under CRF

Finance Commission Nidhi

Misc

UPSHA

Indo Nepal Border

By-passRs crore

Fig. 11.7 EXISTING BUDGET ALLOCATION IN ROAD SECTOR IN UP (2013-14)


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Table 11.8 PROPOSED BUDGETARY ALLOCATIONS IN CORE ROAD NETWORK

FROM EXISTING SCHEMES / HEADS (Rs in crore)

Year

Widening / Strength under

State Sector Head

State Road Fund (SRF)

Central Road Fund

(CRF)

Total W/S from State

Budget

Total W/S (State + Central)

2010 865 300 300 1165 1465

2011 813 376 432 1189 1621

2012 608 950 246 1558 1804

2013 996 770 229 1766 1995

2014 1340 800 240 2140 2380

2015 1406 840 252 2246 2498

2016 1477 882 265 2359 2623

2017 1551 926 278 2477 2755

2018 1706 1019 292 2724 3016

2019 1791 1070 306 2861 3167

2020 1881 1123 322 3004 3325

2021 1975 1179 338 3154 3492

2022 2172 1297 355 3469 3824

2023 2281 1362 372 3643 4015

2024 2395 1430 391 3825 4216

2025 2514 1502 410 4016 4427

2026 2640 1577 431 4217 4648

2027 2904 1734 453 4639 5091

2028 3049 1821 475 4870 5346

2029 3202 1912 499 5114 5613

2030 3362 2008 524 5370 5894

2031 3530 2108 550 5638 6188

Total (2014 to 2031) 65766 72518

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Rs in crore

Fig 11.8 TRENDS IN STATE AND CENTRAL BUDGET IN WIDENING AND STRENGTHENING OF SH, MDR & ODR

State Sector Head SRF W/S CRF Linear (W/S)


FINAL REPORT


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P a g e | 11-52

Keeping in view the above provisions it will be possible generate resources for Core Roads

and the year wise allocations from the current budget allocation. A total of about Rs 60,000

crore can be generated from the State Budget and Central Government assistance. The

total estimated cost of core road development is Rs 159,000 Crore with an assumed

escalation of 6%. Rest of the allocations can be generated from PPP potential and

multilateral borrowings. Our endeavour has been to minimise the dependence of other aids

and try to achieve sustainability.

While estimating the year wise allocations from various schemes following assumptions

have been made in the computations.

i. The current year estimates have been used to spread the budget estimates for the

development of core roads in various categories of roads including SH, MDR and

ODR with major bridges and proposed road over bridges.

ii. Keeping in view the trends witnessed in the UP budget allocations and growth a

marginal 5% increase has been proposed between years 2014 and year 2031. The

respective shares have been estimated for all categories of roads in the core network.

iii. However, we also recommend assessing the progress of CRN development at the

end of years 2017, 2022, 2027 and accordingly, plan for any marginal increases on

the subsequent allocations. It is always worthwhile to give push at the end of 5 year

periods to accelerate growth and cover up backlogs, if any. Besides in a period of 5

years the GoUP and UPPWD will also assess the real potential that can emerge from

the private sector involvement.

11.8.4.1. Budgetary Provisions from Various Budget Heads

Budgeting (Multilateral Funding)

- Phase I (2014-2017)

- Loan from World Bank & ADB is likely to be signed in May 2015 with a sanctioned

amount of 400 & 300 USD million respectively, total Multilateral Funding will be 700

USD million (Rs 4340 crore)

- Phase I – total plan cost is estimated at INR 19,607 crore

- Multilateral borrowings will be about 22% assuming that the loan is fully utilised in

Phase I

- In Phase II (2018-2022) expected loan from WB and ADB will be USD 400 & 200

million, which is INR 3720 crore. GOUP has approached DEA for 3 phases of World

Bank Loan

- GOUP has approached DEA for 3 phases of World Bank Loan each of 500 USD million

and 2 phases of ADB loan each of 400 USD million, DEA posed one phase of USD 400

million to WB & one phase of USD 300 million to ADB only.

- In Phase III (2023-27) expected Loan from WB will be USD 400 million i.e. INR 2480

crore. Similarly, in Phase IV – after assessing the progress on core network further

provisions can be planned, accordingly

- No multilateral funding is envisaged in Phase IV, as of now.

Budgeting (State Budget)

- Phase I (2014-2017) - After analysing the budget trends we have assumed per annum

provision of INR 2350 crore with an annual increase of 5% for widening / strengthening

of SH, MDR & ODR through State Budget


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- The trends in this head observed an increase to 2380 crore from 1465 crore in last five

years. Therefore, total requirement of INR 7661 crore can be met with these provisions

- Phase II (2018-2022) - Total requirement of INR 10,663 crore can also be met with the

above provisions

- Phase III (2023-2027) - The requirements under this head will be INR 14973 crore

- Phase IV (2028-2031) - The requirements under this head will be INR 15118 crore

Budgeting (Central Road Fund)

- Phase I (2014-2017) - The trends in this head observed in last five years will attract a

provision of about 200 crore per annum, which can be enhanced depending upon the

policies of the Central Government on the Core Network.

- After analysing the budget trends we have assumed per annum provision of INR 200

crore with an annual increase of 5% for widening / strengthening of SH, MDR & ODR

through CRF

- Therefore, total requirement of INR 510 crore can be met with the above provision.

- Phase II (2018-2022) - Total requirement of INR 1105 crore can also be met with the

above provision

- Phase III (2023-2027) - The requirement of INR 1410 can be met with this provision

- Phase IV (2028-2031) - The requirement of INR 1404 can be met with this provision

Budgeting (PPP UPSHA) as per SHDP Scheme

- Phase I (2014-2017) - Roads for which DPR have been completed and are in bidding

stages have been included in Phase I for implementation in PPP mode. The total cost

of 7 roads (State Highways) will be INR 5870 crore

- Phase II (2018-2022) - The total provision for PPP roads in Phase 2 has been proposed

at INR 8100 crore. This provision has been extracted from the UPSHA Plan

- Phase III (2023-2027) - The provision for Phase III have been kept at 9810 crore as per

the SHDP

- Phase IV (2028-2031) - For Phase IV a provision of 4300 core has been extracted from

the UPSHA Plan

- The total expected PPP potential will be INR 28,100 crore which is 29% of the total

estimated budget

Budgeting (Bridges)

- Phase I (2014-2017) - The trends observed in this head have shown an increase in

provision to INR 1200 crore in 2014 from 600 crore in 2010

- After analysing the budget trends we have assumed per annum provision of INR 300

crore (for core network sections and portions) with an annual increase of 5% for

construction of bridges and ROB. Therefore, total requirement of INR 997 crore can be

met with the above provision

- The portion of land falling under railway jurisdiction will be funded by IR (estimated at

INR 231 crore for Phase I)

- Phase II (2018-2022) - Total requirement of INR 1900 crore can also be met with the

above provision

- Phase III (2023-2027) - The requirements under this head will be INR 1558 crore


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P a g e | 11-54

- Phase IV (2028-2031) - The requirements under this head will be INR 1339 crore

11.8.4.2. Identification of Works in Phase I

Multilateral Funding

- WORLD BANK: Works equivalent to USD 400 million were identified on the basis of

EIRR

- EIRR was computed for corridors of lengths of more than 50 km

- ADB: Works equivalent to USD 300 million identified on the basis of EIRR of MDR

sections standalone

State Budget & CRF

- Works already sanctioned or in progress have been proposed and prioritized based on

EIRR

UPSHA

- 7 works identified and proposed for which bidding is in progress

These proposals will bring prosperity in the State and enhance all sectors of economy. The

savings in fuel costs will be many folds with reductions of accident costs.

The allocation of above resources for development of core road network has been analysed

in detail and distributed in proposed phased programme up to year 2013. Under various

heads as discussed above Rs 52,000 Crore will fund about 60% of the investment required.

The short fall Rs 38,000 Crore is proposed to be resourced from the PPP potential and

multilateral borrowings. The details are presented in Table 11.9 and Figure 11.9.

World Bank and ADB are in advance stages to approve the loan to be utilised for the

improvement of State Highways and Major District Roads respectively. This will generate

about 10,500 Crore to be utilised for next 10 years. There will be short fall of fund

requirements for the development of Other District Roads in the core network. This will be

an important strategy, which is vital to achieve the last mile connectivity for the regional

road system. Besides, up-gradation of roads will help the State to enhance rural

connectivity. Therefore, a separate provision has to be accorded to develop Other District

Roads in the State. This can be achieved by multilateral borrowings. Some of the ODR’s

can be upgraded to next level to tap the funds available from ADB, WB and other sources.

The funds from the multilateral agencies can be tapped from the following listed agencies:

- The World Bank Group

- Asian Development Bank

- United Nations Development Programme for meeting training needs

- Canada International Development Agency

- Danish International Development Agency

- French Development Agency

- Japan International Co-operation Agency & Japan Bank for International Co-operation

- United States Agency for International Development

About 28,000 crore of PPP potential has been identified in the SHDP programme to be

achieved in 5 phases, which can be accomplished through viability gap funding by both

State and Central Government to a maximum of 40%. State can also use some hybrid

models to attract private sector participation. However, while allocating PPP potential of

State Roads, there will be viability issues and the strike rate could be about 60 to 70% due

to recent slowdown in the economy and experiences from the NHAI and other States.


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Summarising the resources, budgetary allocations and other potential it is expected that the

investment of Rs. 98,435 Crore shall be arranged from Widening / strengthening

component of State Budget (49%), 4% from CRF, 7% from the State Budget component of

Bridges & Indian railways for converting the important level crossings to grade separated

facilities falling on the proposed core network. 11% of the funds will need support from

Donor Agencies and it is expected that 29% of the investment shall be from PPP.

Table 11.9

PROPOSED PHASE-WISE ALLOCATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CORE NETWORK FROM

STATE BUDGET, CENTRAL FUNDS & OTHER SCHEMES INCLUDING MULTI-LATERAL

BORROWINGS AND PPP POTENTIAL

Category SH MDR ODR Major River

Bridges

Road Over

Bridges Total

Core Network Cost (crore) 44203 29112 17747 4328 3045 98435

Phase I (2014-17) 15465 2558 84 999 501 19607

Phase II (2018-22) 11250 7274 4977 1600 576 25677

Phase III (2023-27) 9662 11331 7643 1036 922 30594

Phase IV (2028-31) 7826 7949 5043 693 1046 22557

Phase I - Requirements 15465 2558 84 999 501 19607

Budget Allocations

Widening and Strengthening under State Budget 7661 7661

Widening and Strengthening Under CRF 100 330 80 510

Bridges (State Budget) 727 270 997

Indian Railways 231 231

Multilateral Funding 2106 1962 272 4340

Public Private Partnership 5868 5868

Total 15735 2292 80 999 501 19607

Phase II - Requirements 11250 7274 4977 1600 576 25677

Budget Allocations

Widening and Strengthening under State Budget 3850 1836 4977 10663

Widening and Strengthening Under CRF 585 520 1105



Multilateral Funding 2500 1138 3638

Public Private Partnership 4315 3780 8095

Total 11250 7274 4977 1600 576 25677

Phase III 9662 11331 7643 1036 922 30594

Budget Allocations





Multilateral Funding 2440

2440

Public Private Partnership 4201 5342 270 9813

Total 9662 11331 7643 1036 922 30594

Phase IV 7826 7949 5043 693 1046 22557

Budget Allocations





Multilateral Funding 0

Public Private Partnership 1898 2398 4296

Total 7826 7949 5043 693 1046 22557

Total Budget 44203 29112 17747 4328 3045 98435

Budget Allocations

Widening and Strengthening under State Budget 19237 11785 17393 0 48415

Widening and Strengthening Under CRF 1908 2441 80 4429



Multilateral Funding 7046 3100 0 272 10418

Public Private Partnership 16282 11520 270 28072

Total 44473 28846 17743 4328 3045 98435


FINAL REPORT


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Implementation of the long-term road development plan and development and management

of the supporting infrastructure calls for a host of activities by State Government. It is

important that a multi-pronged effort is initiated on all fronts to enable speedy, concerted

and coordinated action. The following agenda for action is suggested.

i. Mobilisation of resources

ii. Preparation of DPR for projects recommended;

iii. Initiate the process of tendering, award of contract, construction and project

management for recommended projects;

iv. Allocation of sustainable budget;

v. Establish measures to strengthen the institutional setup and set up a transport planning

unit;

vi. Identification and selection of Private Sector enterprise for projects to be developed

under PPP model;

vii. Identification of land for the various components of the Plan

viii. Social and environmental impacts

11.9. WAY FORWARD

The Consultants suggest the following steps to be taken by the GOUP as a corollary to the

findings and recommendations made in the Master Plan.

i. The Vision Statement prepared by the Consultants should be adopted by the GOUP

and should be the guiding principle for the improvement and maintenance of the road

network.

ii. The expansion of the SH, MDR and ODR suggested in the Master Plan should be

accepted by the GOUP and notified after renumbering the network. The renumbering

should be on rational basis giving due importance to the geographical setting.

iii. The Core Network identified by the Consultants should receive priority in the

implementation of the future road programme. Funds for the improvement of the Core

Network should be arranged and preferably through external funding (World Bank,

Asian Development Bank etc.). The economic analysis criterion should be the basis

for prioritizing the schemes.

iv. The up-gradation of the roads other than the Core Network is equally important since

only then the connectivity to towns (above 5,000 population), places of tourist

49%

4%

6%

1%

11%

29%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

W/S (State Budget)

W/S (CRF)

Bridges (State Budget)

Indian Railways

Multilateral Funding

Public Private Partnership

Fig 11.9 SOURCES OF FUNDS


FINAL REPORT


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P a g e | 11-57

importance, wild life sanctuaries, cottage industries, mandis and places of religious

importance will be accomplished and the national targets set down in the Lucknow

Plan (1981-2001) and Vision 2021 will be achieved.

v. The UP PWD should be reorganised as suggested by the Consultants, giving the

status of Secretary to the Engineer-in-Chief.

vi. The cadre of the PWD should be reviewed and a system of recruitment through

competitive examination should be established, inducting talent at middle level

segments also. This will result in enhancement of skill sets particularly, in planning

and design an essential ingredient for a holistic development.

vii. The road network of UP constitutes a valuable asset which deserves to be

maintained and prevented from becoming obsolete. A Consultant should be

appointed to suggest a Road Asset Management system for UP’s Roads, on sound

business-like principles.

viii. UP has a scarcity of stone reserves. The use of techniques like soil stabilization

should be encouraged. Trial stretches should be constructed using various alternative

technologies and results of performance closely watched to serve as guidelines for

general adoption.

ix. Due to extensive irrigation, the soil in many areas has become sodic. Road

construction in such areas is a serious problem. Solutions are available to overcome

the problem and should be popularized.

x. The high water table in irrigated areas results in capillary rise of water, causing

settlement of the pavements phenomenon known as boggy action. Solutions are

available to overcome the problem and must be popularized.

xi. Though the problems are a challenge, the UP PWD engineers have the capability to

overcome them, provided they are given political and administrative backing. The

entire economy of UP can be changed dramatically, it the Master Plan is

implemented. Agricultural prosperity, growth of cottage industries, development of

education and health services and increase in tourism will be the direct benefits of the

road programme.

xii. A seminar of all stake-holders (government departments), politicians, road users,

contractors, consultants, police should be conducted where the Master Plan is

presented and suggestions from the participants will be received to carry forward the

road agenda.

xiii. The State Government must extend their active cooperation for enabling successful

implementation of the PPP Projects by signing of the State Support Agreements for

the PPP Projects and providing necessary support and assistances and gear for

taking up more projects on PPP basis by:

- Setting up Specific Cells for implementation of Road Projects on PPP mode; such

Cells should also have Finance and Legal Specialties to support Technical Staff

apart from fro Uttar Pradesh State Highway Authority

- Developing required Institutional capabilities

- The Model Concession Agreement (MCA) has to evolve on continuous basis in

due consultation with all the stakeholders.

.