food futures kinglake 13 oct 2010
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Envisioning Food Systemsfor resilient landscapes, lifestyles andfor resilient landscapes, lifestyles andlivelihoods in a carbon, water, energylivelihoods in a carbon, water, energy
& nutrient& nutrient--constrained worldconstrained world
A ndrew CampbellA ndrew CampbellKinglake Ranges Food Futures VisioningKinglake Ranges Food Futures Visioning
SessionSession Kinglake, 13 October 2010Kinglake, 13 October 2010www.triplehelix.com.auwww.triplehelix.com.au
Personal declarations
Farming background southFarming background south- -western Victoriawestern Victoria Family farming in the district since 1860s, own farm managed sinceFamily farming in the district since 1860s, own farm managed since
19871987
450ha near Cavendish: 30% farm forestry, 10% environmental450ha near Cavendish: 30% farm forestry, 10% environmental
reserves, 60% leased to a neighbour for prime lambsreserves, 60% leased to a neighbour for prime lambsForestry & rural sociology: Creswick, Melbourne &Forestry & rural sociology: Creswick, Melbourne &WageningenWageningen
Forester Victorian governmentForester Victorian government Vacation work at Toolangi 1978Vacation work at Toolangi 1978
First National Landcare Facilitator 89First National Landcare Facilitator 89- -9292
Environment Australia SES 1995Environment Australia SES 1995- -20002000
CEO Land & Water Australia 2000CEO Land & Water Australia 2000- -0606
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O utline1. Drivers for more sustainable food systems
Food security Climate change Water Energy Land & nutrients
2. Challenges & opportunities Technical Policy Community
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For more info
e.g.e.g. Paddock to PlatePaddock to PlateP olicy P ropositions for Sustainable FoodP olicy P ropositions for Sustainable Food
SystemsSystems& Background P aper & Background P aper
www.triplehelix.com.au
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1. Drivers for more sustainable
food systemsWorld food demand
Climate chaos
Water scarcity
Energy security
Soil, nutrients & other resource constraintsHuman health & animal welfare
The policy responses to all of the above
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The Food System
Has a very large environmental footprint E.g. more than half total household water consumption
Is critically dependent onclimate, water, energy, land and nutrientsIs affected by constraints or perturbationsin any of these factors
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Source: WBCSD & IUCN 2008; Harvard Medical School 2008
The core problem:
population & carbon emissions
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Some people are (wrongly) trying to represent the lastdecade as indicating a cooling trend.
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Water
Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average
Like the Murray Darling Basin,all the worlds major foodproducing basins areeffectively closed or alreadyover-committed
Melbournes A nnual Storage Inflow GL (1913-2007)
In Victoria, last 7 years the driest 7 years since records have been kept.Inflows to Melbourne storages since 1997 35% lower than prior to 1997.
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Climate change impact on water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin
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Feeding the worldThe world needs to increase food production by about70% by 2050, & improve distribution
We have done this in the past, mainly throughclearing, cultivating and irrigating more land
and intensification, better varieties, more fertiliser, pesticidesetc
Climate change and oil depletion is narrowing thoseoptions, with limits to water, land, energy & nutrients
Rich consumers have major concerns about modernindustrial food systems
human health, animal welfare, environment, fair trade
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But maybe we aint seen nothin yet.
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Energy &nutrients
The era of abundant,cheap fossil fuels iscoming to a close
Rising oil costs =rising costs for
fertiliser, agri-chemicals, transportand food
A ustralia
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World
Energy (2) a significant risk of a peak in conventional oil production before 2020. The risks
presented by global oil depletion deserve much more serious attention by theresearch and policy communities.
U K Energy Research Centre, An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production , August 2009
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we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and wehave to prepare ourselves for that day
D r Fatih Birol, Chief Economist IE A , 3 A ugust 2009
The challenge of feeding 7 or 8 billion people while oil supplies are falling i s stupefying. Itll be even greater if
governments keep pretending that it isnt going to happen.
George Monbiot, The Guardian 16.11.09
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Land & soilThe FAO recently assessed trends in land condition (measured by
net primary productivity) from 1981-2004
Land degradation is increasing in severity and extent:
>20 percent of all cultivated areas>30 percent of forests>10 percent of grasslands
1.5 billion people depend directly on land that is being degraded
Land degradation is cumulative. Limited overlap between 24% of theland surface identified as degraded now and the 15% classified in 1991,because NPP has flatlined near zero in flogged areas
http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000874/index.html
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Water, energy, and G D P
19 f rom Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Ste ff en & Troy (200 7 )
Energy & GDP
Water & GDP
Water and energy havehistorically been closelycoupled with GDP inAustralia
Our challenge now is to radicallyreduce the energy, carbon and
water-intensity o f our economy
Climate-water-energy feedbacks
20 f rom Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Ste ff en & Troy (200 7 )
Saving water often usesmore energy, and vice-versa
Efforts to moderate climateoften use more energy+/or water
E.g. coal-fired power stationswith CCS will be 25-33%more water-intensive
Using more fossil energyexacerbates climate chaos
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W here does Business as Usual take us?
A food system less capable of delivering healthy, affordable foodreliably in a variable climate
Murrindindi among the highest levels of food insecurity in Victoria> 11% of people run out of food, unable to afford more (before fires)
Intensifying pressure on the resource base
Greater exposure & vulnerability to rising energy & nutrientprices
Intensifying competition for rural land & water
Increasing greenhouse gas emissions
Ever-declining water security and energy security
Exacerbating pressures on rural communities21
2. Technical challenges & opportunities1. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissions
2. To increase water productivity,decoupling the every calorie = 1 litre relationship
3. To increase energy productivity more food energy out per unit of energy in while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy
4. To develop more sustainable food systems while conserving biodiversity and improving landscape amenity, soil health,
animal welfare & human health
5. To achieve all of the above simultaneously!22
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The integration imperativeManaging whole landscapes
- where nature meets culture (Schama)
- landscapes are socially constructed
- beyond ecological apartheid
- NRM means people management- engage values, perceptions, aspirations, behaviour
Integration
-across issues e.g climate, energy, food & water -across scales fixing the Federation-across the triple helix
-landscapes, lifestyles & livelihoods
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Types of Response
We need to beoperating in each of these quadrants
D evelop researchpartnerships +/or link into existingcollaborations
Source: FFI CRC EverCrop
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The Cynefin knowledge framework*Climate change spans all of these domains
If temp increase > 2C, thendisorder & chaos will reign
The challenge is to handle thenecessary range of simultaneous responses
to work in all of these domainsat once
to develop a system-wideperspective
& the knowledge systems andlearning strategies to underpinthat perspective
* David Snowden & Mary Boone (200 7 )Leader's Framework f or Decision Making H arvard Business Review
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W e need a third agricultural revolution what might it look like?
Closed loop farming systems (water, energy, nutrients,carbon)
Better understanding of soil carbon & microbial activity
Radically reducing waste in all parts of the food chain
Farming systems producing renewable bioenergy (2 nd
generation)
Smart metering, sensing, telemetry, robotics, guidance
Urban food production, recycling waste streams & urbanwater
New/old food marketing systems
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A two-tiered food system?
Potential divergence of the food system into two tiers:1. High volume, undifferentiated commodities on low margins
for world market prices farmers price takers
2. More differentiated, highly specified produce for morediscerning markets, emphasising both functional and non-functional brand attributes tailored to customer demands
The obvious option for Kinglake is the second one
This means high levels of quality assurance, distinctiveregional branding strategies, close contact withcustomers, local value adding where possible.
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Cities suck in water, energyand nutrients from their hinterland
Much of which becomeswaste
Replumbing, rewiring andrestumping is required on amassive scale
Cities also suck in people,and are part of the solution,not the problem
Peri-urban areas likeKinglake Ranges shouldsee the city as a major allyand opportunity
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nnovat on esearcO pportunities
U rban food production (shorter supply chains)
Forensic mapping of stocks and flows of water, energy, nutrientsand biomass in urban and peri-urban areas to identifyopportunities for use in food production
Integrate the above 2 points into Food Sensitive U rban Design
Opportunities from waste (e.g. algal biodiesel)
Spatial optimisation for food, water, carbon & energy from aregional planning perspective
Integrated farming of food, energy (biofuels & bioenergy)& carbon site and landscape scale
3 . Policy challenges & opportunities time for new alliances & perspectives
Healthy farms, healthylandscapes, healthy soils,healthy food, healthy people &healthy communities areinterconnected
We are not used to seeing thefarming system, the energysystem or the water system, or planning & urban design for thatmatter, as connected to thehealth system
This needs to chan eSource: Tyrchniewicz and McDonald (200 7 )
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Perspectives from the top of the A PSTerry Moran, Institute of Public A dministration, 15 July 2009:
Reflecting on the challenges of public sector reform:
By and large, I believe the public service gives good advice on incremental policy improvement. Where we fall down is in long-term, transformational thinking; the big picture stuff. We are still more reactive than proactive;more inward than outward looking. We are allergic to risk, sometimesinfected by a culture of timidity.
The APS still generates too much policy within single departments and agencies to address challenges that span a range of departments and agencies We are not good at recruiting creative thinkers.
http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_200 9 _07 _1 5 .cf m
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A food policy agenda
Propositions from Campbell (2009) Paddock to Plate (published by the ACF & also at www.triplehelix.com.au )
http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401
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A food policy agenda (2)
http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401
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A food policy agenda (3)A food policy agenda (3)
http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401
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A food policy agenda (4)
http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401
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A food policy agenda (5)A food policy agenda (5)
http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401
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Implications for communities
P RO FO UND S O CIA L CH A LLENGES:
To avoid scaring people, or perceptions of To avoid scaring people, or perceptions of blameblame
To bring people along on a challengingTo bring people along on a challenging
journey journeyTo build understanding, skills and capacityTo build understanding, skills and capacity
To honour the past, while inventing a newTo honour the past, while inventing a newfuturefuture
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The community imperativeRapid, often surprising, on-going environmental change willchallenge governments and industries, and stress communities
Many responses (proactive and reactive) will need to be designedand/or interpreted at regional and local levels. Successfulimplementation depends on community support.
We need environmentally literate and capable bodies at this scale,with strong community support and involving community leaders,that bridge government and community, public and private
Policy convergence in climate, energy, water and food systemsmandates integrated planning & delivery
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Building resilienceWhat determines resilience, in general?*
Diversity: biological, economic (e.g. energy sources),social
Modularity (connectedness, engagement)Tightness of feedbacksOpenness immigration, inflows, outflowsReserves and other reservoirs (e.g. seedbanks,nutrient pools, soil moisture, memory, knowledge)
Overlapping institutionsPolycentric (distributed) governance & leadership
Are any of these changing? Are any limiting?39 * Source: Brian Walker http://www.australia21.org.au/buildingAustraliasResilience-papers.htm
Thoughts on governance
Resilience theory and the principle of subsidiarityunderline the need for local leadership andgovernance structures formal and informal
Highly centralised models will always struggle in
dynamic, complex and chaotic situations
This also applies for business models, yet innovativenew food systems will need capital and critical mass
Co-operatives offer a good option for scaling up, for value-adding and for marketing
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Land U se Planning & DesignVic already post-agricultural in some regions (Neil Barr)
We have some elements of a new paradigm Ecoservices etc Carbon offsets market (Greenfleet et al)
New corporate players e.g. VicSuper, energy companies
And we know areas that need to expand
Water conservation Habitat restoration and reconnection
Residential (600,000 new homes just for Melb)
Renewable energy (wind, solar, biomass, biogas)
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How can this all fit at a landscape and regionalscale?
The landscape needs to be re-plumbed, re-wired and re-clothed
We need new regional planning approaches that:
are robust under a range of climate change & demographicscenarios
build in resilience thinking(e.g. improve habitat connectivity & buffering, protect refugia)
accommodate carbon pollution mitigation options(energy, transport, food)
safeguard productive soil and allow for increased food production facilitate recycling of water, nutrients and energy
Integrating and/or replacing regional catchment strategiesand local government planning, zoning,rating and development approval processes
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A new peri-urban paradigm?
Thoughts from a lay perspective
How to transform McMansion suburbs?
Protecting good soils without constraining the ability of ageing farmers to cash out?
Reconciling private space, property rights & individuality
with public goals of food, water, energy, biodiversity,amenity, fire
Learning from Europe - live in village, commute to farm?
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Take home messagesWe (Kinglake especially!) are living through a period of unprecedented environmental change, that is likely tointensify this is not a blipBusiness as usual is not a viable trajectoryNew alliances are needed across the health, food andfarming systems, and along the food value chainPeri-urban areas with good soils and reliable water are astrategic asset of national significance
Kinglake can pilot new approaches to food in a drying climateBuilding more resilient landscapes, lifestyles and livelihoodsThis is about innovation & leadership
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For more infoFor more info
e.g. Paddock to PlatePolicy Propositions f or Sustainable Food Systems
www.triplehelix.com.au