7/26/2019 Food Security Early Warning System Agromet Update, Issue 04, December 2015-2016

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/food-security-early-warning-system-agromet-update-issue-04-december-2015-2016 1/2

=

Wnfs iubb`tfc fs pr`pmr`g fc adbbmidrmtfdc wftn PQMFG/H@_QC@W. Hdr edr` g`tmfbs, adctmat QMGA HMCY Gfr`atdrmt`,Omidrdc`, Idtswmcm. W`b: +98?-160=>81; @-emfb: r`ofstryLsmga.fct; _`i: www.smga.fct/hmcr  

Fssu` <7 efg-G`a`ei`r upgmt` Q`msdc: 9<=0-9<=8 9=-=9-9<=0

Y`ofdcmb Queemry

Wn` sbdw stmrt dh tn` rmfchmbb s`msdc adctfcu`g fc tn` sdutn`rc nmbh dh tn` r`ofdc gurfco tn` hfrst nmbh dh

G`a`ei`r. Fc pmrtfaubmr, sdutn`rc Embmwf, a`ctrmb Edzmeifqu`, ̀ mst`rc Zmeifm mcg cdrtn-`mst`rc Zfeimiw`r`a`fv`g w`bb i`bdw cdremb rmfchmbb, ms w`bb ms B`sdtnd, a`ctrmb/w`st`rc Qdutn Mhrfam mcg sdutn`rc Idtswmcm(irdwc adbdurs, Hfour` =). Wn` bdw rmfchmbb fc tn` hfrst nmbh dh G`a`ei`r fs adepducg`g iy i`bdw cdrembrmfchmbb tnmt nms o`c`rmbby anmrmat`rfz`g tn` rmfchmbb s`msdc sfca` Datdi`r fc tn` sdutn`rc pmrts dh tn` r`ofdc.Dtn`r mr`ms tnmt mbsd r`a`fv`g bdw rmfchmbb fc `mrby G`a`ei`r fcabug` sdutn`rc Edzmeifqu`, sdutn-`mst`rcMcodbm, pmrts dh sdutn`rc Wmczmcfm, cdrtn`rc GYA mcg cdrtn-w`st`rc Cmefifm. Fc adctrmst, euan dh Wmczmcfm

r`a`fv`g midv`-mv`rmo` rmfchmbb gurfco tnfs p`rfdg, adctfcufco m tr`cg tnmt nms `xfst`g sfca` tn` i`ofccfco dhtn` s`msdc. M h`w mr`ms tnmt nmg i``c `xp`rf`cafco pddr rmfchmbb sfca` bmst s`msdc r`a`fv`g oddg rmfcs, wnfann`bp`g r`gua` tn` rmfchmbb g`hfafts fc tn`s` mr`ms: tn`s` fcabug`g sdutn-w`st Mcodbm, cdrtn-w`st Cmefifm,Qwmzfbmcg, `mst`rc Idtswmcm mcg cdrtn-`mst`rc Qdutn Mhrfam. Wn` rmfcs fc edst dh tn`s` mr`ms w`r` ndw`v`rcdt y`t suhhfaf`ct td `bfefcmt` tn` bdco-stmcgfco edfstur` g`hfafts i`fco `xp`rf`ca`g tn`r`.

Edst mr`ms r`a`fv`g `cduon rmfcs adcsfg`r td adcstftut` mc `hh`atfv` stmrt dh s`msdc iy `mrby G`a`ei`r, wftn pmrts dh sdutn`rc Mcodbm mcg cdrtn r̀c Cmefifm `xp`rf`cafco mc dcs`t dh rmfcs fc tn` hfrst =< gmys dh G`a`ei`r(drmco` adbdurs, Hfour` 9). Ndw`v`r, emcy surrducgfco mr`ms fc sdutn-`mst`rc Mcodbm mcg cdrtn-`mst`rc

Nfonbfonts  I`bdw cdremb rmfchmbb wms r`a`fv`g fc B`sdtnd, pmrts dh Qdutn Mhrfam, a`ctrmb Edzmeifqu`,

`mst`rc Zmeifm mcg cdrtn-`mst`rc Zfeimiw` fc tn` hfrst nmbh dh G`a`ei`r

  Dcs`t dh rmfcs fc pmrts dh Qdutn Mhrfam mcg B`sdtnd nms cdt y`t daaurr`g, wftn g`bmys dh mt

b`mst 0< gmys fc sde` pmrts, ms pbmctfco wfcgdws mr` abdsfco fc sde` mr`ms

  X`o`tmtfdc adcgftfdcs feprdv`g fc sde` a`ctrmb pmrts, mht`r oddg rmfcs w`r` r`a`fv`g tn`r`

  X`ry nfon t`ep`rmtur`s nmv` adctfcu`g fc tn` sdutn`rc nmbh dh tn` r`ofdc, grfvfco up rmt`s dh

wmt`r bdss hrde surhma` wmt`r idgf`s. Nfon t`ep`rmtur`s mr` hdr`amst td adctfcu`

  Nfon rmfchmbb adctfcu`g td i` r`a`fv`g fc euan dh Wmczmcfm mcg a`ctrmb GYA

9<=0/9<=8 Morfaubturmb Q`msdc

Hddg Q`aurfty@mrby _mrcfco Qyst`e

 Morde`t Ppgmt`

Hfour` =. Ymfchmbb hdr =-=0 G`a 9<=0 `xpr`ss`g ms m p`ra`ct dh mv`rmo` rmfchmbb hdr tn` sme` p`rfdg.

Hfour` 9. Dcs`t dh rmfcs mcg g`bmys fc dcs`t

ms dh =< G`a`ei`r 9<=0. Qdura`: PQOQ/H@_QC@W  

7/26/2019 Food Security Early Warning System Agromet Update, Issue 04, December 2015-2016

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/food-security-early-warning-system-agromet-update-issue-04-december-2015-2016 2/2

9

Wnfs iubb`tfc fs pr`pmr`g fc adbbmidrmtfdc wftn PQMFG/H@_QC@W. Hdr edr` g`tmfbs, adctmat QMGA HMCY Gfr`atdrmt`,Omidrdc`, Idtswmcm. W`b: +98?-160=>81; @-emfb: r`ofstryLsmga.fct; _`i: www.smga.fct/hmcr  

 Cmefifm gfg cdt r`a`fv` suhhfaf`ct rmfcs hdr mc dcs t̀ (gmrk or`y adbdurs, Hfour` 9). Fc sde` dh tn`s` mr`ms, tn`rmfcs mr` g`bmy`g iy dv`r 1< gmys. Fc pmrts dh B`sdtnd mcg a`ctrmb mcg sdutn-`mst`rc Qdutn Mhrfam, tn` s`msdcfs mbsd bmt`, wftn g`bmys dh 0< gmys dr edr` fc emcy mr`ms. Wn`s` g`bmys r`gua` tn` anmca`s dh suaa`sshubardppfco gu` td tn` sndrt`c`g p`rfdg mvmfbmib` hdr ardps td r`man emturfty i`hdr` tn` a`ssmtfdc dh rmfcs. Hmre`rsmbsd t`cg cdt td pbmct fh tn`y gd cdt r`a`fv` suhhfaf`ct pbmctfco rmfcs iy sp`afhfa aut-dhh gmt`s, wnfan gfhh`r iy

mr`m. Qde` dh tn` mr`ms mhh`at`g fcabug` prdguatfv` emfz` ordwfco mr`ms dh Qdutn Mhrfam, wftn r`pdrts tnmt fcsde` pmrts, dcby m bdw p`ra`ctmo` dh tn` fct`cg`g mr`m nms i``c pbmct`g td gmt` gu` td tn` gry adcgftfdcs. \mrts

dh sdutn`rc mcg a`ctrmb Edzmeifqu` mcg ̀ mst`rc Zfeimiw` nmv` mbsd ̀ xp`rf`ca`g m 9<-td-1< gmy g`bmy fc tn`dcs`t dh rmfcs. Fc sde` dh tn`s` mr`ms, mc dcs`t dh rmfcs wms `xp`rf`ca`g `mrbf`r fc Cdv`ei`r, iut suis`qu`ct prdbdco`g gryc s̀s, adeifc`g wftn nfon t`ep`rmtur`s, b`g td pddr o`refcmtfdc/`e`ro`ca` mcg hmbs` stmrts.

Wn` edg`rmt` rmfcs r`a`ctby r`a`fv`g fc pmrts dh tn` r`ofdc

nmv` n`bp`g td stmrt feprdvfco tn` stmtus dh v`o`tmtfdc tnmtw`r` fc v`ry pddr adcgftfdc, fc m h`w mr`ms. X`o`tmtfdc fcs`v`rmb mr`ms stfbb r`emfcs tn` pddr`st dis`rv`g fc tn` bmst =0y`mrs (Hfour` 1, r`g mr`ms), wftn adcs`qu`ctby c`omtfv`fepbfamtfdcs hdr pmstur` fc pmrtfaubmr. Qdutn`rc Mcodbm,euan dh Idtswmcm, Cmefifm, B`sdtnd, Qdutn Mhrfam,

Qwmzfbmcg, sdutn-w`st`rc Zmeifm mcg a`ctrmb Zfeimiw`mpp`mr td i` medcost tn` wdrst mhh`at`g fc t`res dhv`o`tmtfdc, maadrgfco td smt`bbft` femo`ry. Fc mggftfdc, pmrtsdh Embmwf, Edzmeifqu` mcg Zmeifm mr` mbsd sndwfco pddrv`o`tmtfdc adcgftfdc. Y`pdrts fcgfamt` mpprdxfemt b̀y 9<,<<<amttb` nmv` gf`g fc Qwmzfbmcg gu` td `hh`ats dh tn` grduont.Wn` Idtswmcm odv`rce`ct nms fctrdgua`g m 0<% suisfgy dcbfv`stdak h``g fc mc mtt`ept td r`gua` fepmats dh tn` grduont,wnfan nms mbsd amus`g amttb` g`mtns fc pmrts dh tn` aductry.Grduont-r`bmt`g amttb` g`mtns nmv` mbsd i``c r`pdrt`g fcB`sdtnd, Qdutn Mhrfam, Cmefifm mcg Zfeimiw`.

Qndrt t`re hdr`amsts tnrduon tn` `cg dh G`a`ei`r suoo`st adctfcu`g gry adcgftfdcs dv`r edst sdutn`rc pmrtsdh tn` r`ofdc. Fc adctrmst, w`t adcgftfdcs hdbbdw`g iy sde` gryc`ss mr` `xp`at`g fc sde` dh tn` a`ctrmb pmrts

dh tn` r`ofdc. _`t adcgftfdcs mr` `xp`at`g fc tn` cdrtn`rc pmrts dh tn` r`ofdc. Fc tn` bdco t`re, s`msdcmbhdr`amsts hdr Jmcumry tnrduon Emran mr` suoo`stfco `cnmca`g anmca`s dh cdremb td i`bdw cdremb fc tn`sdutn`rc pmrts dh tn` r`ofdc, mcg `cnmca`g anmca`s dh cdremb td midv`-cdremb rmfchmbb fc tn` cdrtn`rc mr`ms.

Wn` wmt`r sftumtfdc fc emcy pmrts dh tn` r`ofdc fs bdw mcg s`v`rmb aductrf`s mr` emkfco `hhdrts td mggr`ss tnfs.

Hfv` dut dh Qdutn Mhrfam‖s cfc` prdvfca`s nmv` dhhfafmbby i``c g`abmr`g ms grduont-r`bmt`g gfsmst`r mr`ms. Mgrduont `e`ro`cay wms r`a`ctby g`abmr`g fc B`sdtnd, aftfco pr`vmfbfco wfg`spr`mg wmt`r sndrtmo`s, wmt`rrmtfdcfco, grduont r`bmt`g bfv`stdak g`mtns, mcg hmre`rs‖ hmfbur` td pbmct gu` td fcsuhhfaf`ct edfstur`. FcIdtswmcm‖s ampftmb afty, tn` Omidrdc` gme rmc gry `mrbf`r fc tn` y`mr, mcg tn` emfc wmt`r suppby fs i`fco prdvfg`g tnrduon m 1<< ke pfp`bfc` sdurafco wmt`r hrde tn` edr` nuefg cdrtn`rc mr`ms dh Idtswmcm. Wn`

Qwmzfbmcg _mt`r Q`rvfa` Adrpdrmtfdc nms fctrdgua`g wmt`r rmtfdcfco gu` td tn` bdw b`v`bs fc tn` Nmwmc` gme,tn` emfc wmt`r suppby hdr tn` ampftmb afty. _mt`r us` r`strfatfdcs w`r` mccduca`g fc _fcgnd`k, Cmefifm, ms

 pmrt dh tn` afty‖s grduont emcmo`e`ct pbmc  ‑  tn` afty‖s tnr`` wmt`r suppby gmes w`r` adbb`atfv`by mt =0% dhhubb ampmafty iy efg-G`a`ei`r. Kmrfim gme, wnfan prdvfg`s nygrd`b`atrfamb pdw`r hdr Zmeifm mcg Zfeimiw`,wms r`pdrt`g mt =8% dh ampmafty ms dh efg-G`a`ei`r, wftn c`omtfv` fepbfamtfdcs hdr `b`atrfamb pdw`ro`c`rmtfdc hdr tn` twd aductrf`s. Fc mggftfdc td tn`s` cdt`g mr`ms, sde` adeeucftf s̀ mr` i`fco mhh`at`g iy bdwwmt`r suppby, mcg idws`r truaks mr` i`fco us`g td suppby wmt`r fc sde` ams`s. Emcy wmt`r mutndrftf`s mr`

strdcoby `cadurmofco adcsue`rs td us` wmt`r spmrfcoby, ofv`c tn` aurr`ct bdw wmt`r b`v`bs, mcg tn` hdr`amstshdr i`bdw cdremb rmfchmbb mcg nfon t`ep`rmtur̀ s dv`r tn` r`emfcg`r dh tn` s`msdc fc emcy mr`ms.

Makcdwb`go`e`cts:

Wnfs QMGA Morde`t Ppgmt` utfbfz`s fchdremtfdc tnmt wms kfcgby prdvfg`g iy e`ei`rs dh tn` QMGA r`ofdcmb hddg s`aurfty `mrby

wmrcfco syst`e, fcabugfco Cmtfdcmb E`t`drdbdofamb mcg Nygrdbdofamb Q`rvfa`s, Cmtfdcmb @mrby _mrcfco Pcfts mcg CmtfdcmbXubc`rmifbfty Mss`sse`ct Adeeftt``s dh QMGA E`ei`r Qtmt`s, mcg Fct`rcmtfdcmb Addp`rmtfco \mrtc`rs. Hurtn`r fchdremtfdc hdr tn`

r`pdrt wms ditmfc`g tnrduon mcmbysfs dh smt`bbft`-ims`g morde`t`drdbdofamb gmtm, mcg fc adcsubtmtfdc wftn r`bmt`g QMGA `ctftf`sfcvdbv`g fc s`msdcmb edcftdrfco, fcabugfco tn` QMGA Gfsmst`r Yfsk Y`guatfdc Pcft mcg tn` QMGA Abfemt` Q`rvfa`s A`ctr`.

Hfour` 1. X`o`tmtfdc Fcg`x (CGXF) hdr 8-=0 G`a9<=0 `xpr`ss`g fc adct`xt dh pmst =0 y`mrs

Qdura`: PQOQ/H@_QC@W