food security, human health and climate variability pietro ceccato, madeleine thomson, stephen...
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Food Security, Human Health and Climate Variability
Food Security, Human Health and Climate Variability
Pietro Ceccato, Madeleine Thomson, Stephen ConnorPietro Ceccato, Madeleine Thomson, Stephen Connor
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute, Columbia UniversityThe Earth Institute, Columbia University
IRI Climate Forecast Products
IRI Application Sectors
When we think about health we have to have a broad perspective and include food security which impacts nutrition and immunity level to diseases
Human Health & Food Security
Case surveillance alone = late warning
Flag 1 – Flag 2 – Flag 3
Alert & Response
Malaria Early Warning System
Malaria and Climate Variability
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Very Low incidence (Jan/Oct peaks)
00.05
0.10.150.2
0.250.3
0.350.4
0.45
Moderate incidence East (Jan peak)
05
101520253035404550
Moderate incidence West (Oct peak)
High incidence (Oct peak)
Low incidence (Jan/Oct peak)
Malaria distribution in Eritrea
Ceccato et al., 2006 in Am. Soc Trop Med & Hyg
Eritrea Case StudyMalaria and Climate Variability
Data and Products Malaria
Data and Products Malaria
Data and Products Malaria
Minimum Air Temperature Monitoring
MODIS LST night (highlands in Ethiopia)
Malaria: Vectorial Capacity V = ma2Pn/-lnP
proportion ofvectors surviving
feeding cycle
Temperature
humanbloodindex
humanpopulation
gontrophiccycle length
mosquitopopulation
probability ofdailly survival
Rainfallratio of humansto mosquitoes
human bitingrate
sporogoniccycle length
human bitinghabit
probability ofsurviving
sporogeny
VectoralCapacity
productionfactor
Temperature MODIS LST
RainfallTRMM
VCAP
Vectorial Capacity
Vectorial Capacity (USGS-IRI)
Malaria Transmission
Integrate the data and dynamical maps within:Integrate the data and dynamical maps within:
•UN WHO OpenHealth/ Vector Control Decision UN WHO OpenHealth/ Vector Control Decision SupportSupport
•NASA SERVIRNASA SERVIR
Improve Accessibility and Diffusion of Data
Integration IRI Malaria Products
IRI Map Room translated into layers for WMS integrated within WHO Vector Control Decision System
SERVIR Integration
• IRI Summer Institute (2 weeks) 2008-2009-2010-2011-…
• In Countries: Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Madagascar, Uruguay
Build and Train Community of Practice
International Research Institute
for Climate and Society (IRI)