Food security in Yemen: An Update

With support from: CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and the Gesellschaft fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)

Presenter: Clemens Breisinger

Framework and indicators Yemen National Food Security Strategy

National food security

(Availability)

Macroeconomy Key sectors Governance

Food imports/foreign exchange earnings

Human capacity

and productivity

Stability, jobs and

services

Household food security

(Access and utilization)

Income Food Services

Calorie defiency

Child stunting

Po

licie

s an

d in

terv

enti

on

sC

rises and

sho

cks (Sta

bility)

Source: Yemen National Food Security Strategy, simplified version)

Yemen is the most food-insecure Arab country and among the 10 most food insecure countries globally

Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. Beyond the Arab Awakening. IFPRI Food Policy Report

Food security at household level is improving again – after a succession of several crises

Global food, fuel and financial crises unravel

Global food prices rally again

Revolution

Transition

Source: own representation based on data from Central Statistical Organization, Gallup World View, UNICEF and WFP

What explains recent improvements in household food security?

• Inflation declined to 9.9 percent from 19.5 percent in 2011

– Appreciation of Yemeni rial to its pre-crisis level

– Moderation of international food prices

– Easing of supply shortages

• Subsidies and public wage bill have increased to 9 percent and 11% of GDP, respectively (which helps households, but is not well targeted and fiscally unsustainable)

• Per capita incomes started to rise again in 2012 after the steep fall in 2011

Source: IMF 2013 and MOPIC 2013

Food security at national level is also improving - The role of remittances and ODA is increasing

Source: Own representation based on IMF 2013 and MOPIC 2013

Agriculture’s role for food security is stagnating - Cereal imports continue to rise

Source: own presentation based on data from IMF 2013 ; FAO 2013; and MOPIC 2013. Note: Numbers for 2013 are estimates.

What keeps growing is qat, both in production and value terms

Source: Own representation based on MOPIC and FAOSTAT, various years

What can Yemen learn from Brazil when

implementing its National Food Security Strategy?

Highest-level commitment: presidential initiative, ‘right-to-food’ stated in the constitution, and, state accountability.

National strategy coordinates programs from 11 ministries.

Establishment and close collaboration of two secretariats, food and nutrition and social protection.

Targeted, large-scale poverty alleviation program with conditional cash transfers (children’s school attendance and participation in child and maternal healthcare and nutrition programs - ‘Bolsa Familia’)

Large-scale nutrition interventions and investments in drinking water and sanitation infrastructure

Regular process of monitoring and evaluation of progress

Building credibility by promoting transparency of policies and discussions amongst the population

Source: Ecker & Nene (2012) – Nutrition Policies in Developing Countries (IFPRI PN).

The basis for Action: NFSS: 7-point Plan

11

1. Leverage the petroleum subsidy reform to promote food security through direct transfers and investments

Smart transfers to those who need them

6. Better target public investment to the food insecure and improve service provision, especially in rural areas

Restructure public spending and services

7. Launch high-level awareness campaigns for family planning, healthy nutrition, women’s empowerment and qat

Targeted nutrition interventions and women empowerment

Improving household-level food security 7-Point Action Plan

Improving national-level food security 7-Point Action Plan:

12

2. Improve the business climate to foster pro-food secure private investments in promising sectors It’s jobs, jobs, jobs

3. Combine qat reduction policies with support for non-qat agricultural development Agricultural transformation

4. Improve risk management and enforce competition among cereal importers and consider physical grain storage for emergencies Food trade revolution

5. Implement the water sector strategy decisively Water, water, water