food security & political stability: disentangling causes & consequences prof dr ruerd ruben...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences
Prof dr Ruerd Ruben
Impact Assessment for Food Security
![Page 2: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Food & Nutrition Insecurity & Civil Conflict
![Page 3: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Key dimensions of Food Security
Food & Nutrition Security
Conflict
![Page 4: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Food security risks
![Page 5: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Changes in Poverty
Poverty in Fragile & non-fragile states (1990-2025)
Share of Rural poverty
Strong decline in overall poverty; Most structural poverty will become concentrated in Fragile states
Chronic poverty remains mainly a rural issue; Urban settings face inequality & undernutrition
![Page 6: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Differences in socio-economic performance
More structural Poverty & Food Insecurity in (post)conflict countries;associated with many other socio-economic problems.
![Page 7: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Underinvestment in African Agriculture
Public Investments in Agriculture (10% target)
Agricultural growth rates (2003-09)
Small public investment in agriculture (R&D and rural infrastructure)
Limited growth rates of agricultural output & stagnating productivity
![Page 8: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Unstable Food & Agri-commodity Prices
Strongly variable food prices with shocks (‘food spikes’) in 2008 & 2011
High food prices: trigger for (urban) food riots , but only rather loose association with Arab Spring events
![Page 9: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Foresight modelling & scenarios
![Page 10: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Urbanization, Dietary Change & Food Import
Food import share (% GDP) in DCs
Agricultural trade balance LDCs
Dietary changes (1964-2030)
![Page 11: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Correlation & Association ≠ Causality
Poverty & (local) Conflicts
GDP pc / GDP growth & Rule of Law (Rodrik)
Poverty
Political Governance
Food Securi
ty
![Page 12: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Some (un)confirmed Hypotheses
Food scarcity & migration
●Trigger for domestic (rural to urban) migration
●Not for international migration (driven by insecurity)
Food inequality & corruption & crime (‘greed & grievance’)
●Food price subsidies favouring urban middle class
●Land grabbing & water disputes civil unrest
Food shocks & human relations
●Natural (disasters) demand for insurance
●Man-made (war) trauma & reduced trust (‘food as weapon’)
![Page 13: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Aid & Trade Policies for Socio-political Stability
Mitigating conflicts
●Infrastructure (roads, irrigation) & cultivars (GMOs?)
●Rainfall insurance (price expectations crops, cattle)
Enhancing exchange
●Post-harvest loss reduction (storage, transport)
●Regional trade arrangements
Promoting interdependence
●Cooperative development
●Public-private partnerships & contracts
![Page 14: Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062405/5697bfbc1a28abf838ca14cd/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Thank you for your attention!