food security under stress

Food Security under StressFood Security under Stress

Joachim von BraunJoachim von BraunInternational Food Policy Research InstituteInternational Food Policy Research Institute

IICA-OAS Food Security ConferenceIICA-OAS Food Security ConferenceWashington DC, October 1, 2009Washington DC, October 1, 2009

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2009

OverviewOverview

1.1. Poverty, food insecurity, new complex Poverty, food insecurity, new complex risks – now and emergingrisks – now and emerging

2.2. Agenda for research, investment, and Agenda for research, investment, and actionaction


Rising number of hungry people in the Rising number of hungry people in the developing world developing world

Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009.

(in

mil

lio

n)

>1 bil.

WFS target


Hunger Hunger “serious” “serious” in parts of the regionin parts of the region

Source: von Grebmer et al., IFPRI 2008.

2008 Global Hunger Index (GHI)2008 Global Hunger Index (GHI)


Sub-national poverty ca. 2005 ($2/day) Sub-national poverty ca. 2005 ($2/day)

PrevalencePrevalence NumberNumber

Source: Stan Wood et al. (IFPRI) 2009.Source: Stan Wood et al. (IFPRI) 2009.


High inequality in LACHigh inequality in LAC

Source: POVCAL, based on household surveys.


Food riots a mass phenomenon when Food riots a mass phenomenon when prices spikeprices spike

Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Price are data from FAO 2009.Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Price are data from FAO 2009.

Price spike


Distributional impacts of the food crisisDistributional impacts of the food crisis

GuatemalaGuatemala HondurasHonduras NicaraguaNicaragua PeruPeru

Poverty (%) Poverty (%) RuralRural UrbanUrban RuralRural UrbanUrban RuralRural UrbanUrban RuralRural UrbanUrban

DeepeningDeepening 64.164.1 43.743.7 67.867.8 23.423.4 58.058.0 22.822.8 70.670.6 39.839.8

ExitExit 0.10.1 0.00.0 0.20.2 0.00.0 0.70.7 0.10.1 0.00.0 0.00.0

EntryEntry 2.22.2 2.32.3 1.31.3 1.81.8 2.32.3 3.03.0 2.32.3 1.81.8

ChangeChange 2.12.1 2.32.3 1.11.1 1.81.8 1.51.5 2.92.9 2.32.3 1.71.7

Source: M. Torero (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Torero (IFPRI) 2009.


Calorie consumption – Honduras Calorie consumption – Honduras

Before (blue) and after (red) of the increase in prices

Households with 0-2 years old kids

National level

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2009 Source: Chicago Board of Trade 2009.Source: Chicago Board of Trade 2009.

Increased speculation in food Increased speculation in food markets, and link to energy pricemarkets, and link to energy priceGrain and oilseed futures and options - Ave. daily volume Grain and oilseed futures and options - Ave. daily volume

And closure of commodity exchanges (India, China, etc.)And closure of commodity exchanges (India, China, etc.)


The financial crisis and the recession The financial crisis and the recession complicates food securitycomplicates food security

• Less capitalLess capital available today and in the future for the available today and in the future for the agricultureagriculture

• More debtMore debt specially for small holders which had specially for small holders which had already invested in the expansion of their productionalready invested in the expansion of their production

• Shift of attention of policiesShift of attention of policies for agriculture and for agriculture and reduction of public investmentreduction of public investment

• Reduction of employment and wagesReduction of employment and wages of low skill of low skill workersworkers

• Reduction of remittancesReduction of remittances


Food system now also affected by Food system now also affected by financial volatility and recessionfinancial volatility and recession

Source: Data from IMF 2009; Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal. 2009; Source: Data from IMF 2009; Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal. 2009; UNCTAD 2009, and World Bank 2009.UNCTAD 2009, and World Bank 2009.


Climate change, agriculture Climate change, agriculture and food securityand food security


Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: production in 2050: Rainfed maizeRainfed maize

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

Global production: -16%Global production: -16%


Climate change impact: Climate change impact: Global food prices Global food prices

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Agriculture must be on the 2009 Agriculture must be on the 2009 Copenhagen agenda, but how?Copenhagen agenda, but how?

1.1. Investment: Investment: agriculture-related investments, agriculture-related investments, as part of a Global Climate Change Fund as part of a Global Climate Change Fund

2.2. Incentives: Incentives: phase in incentives first to reduce phase in incentives first to reduce emissions and support technological changeemissions and support technological change

3.3. Information: Information: Establish comprehensive Establish comprehensive information and monitoring services of land information and monitoring services of land use and soils for verification purposesuse and soils for verification purposes


In sum: Risk patterns and emerging changeIn sum: Risk patterns and emerging change

1.1. Risk of high and volatile food pricesRisk of high and volatile food prices

2.2. Financial and economic shocks driving Financial and economic shocks driving volatility furthervolatility further

3.3. Climate change accelerating volatility Climate change accelerating volatility

4.4. Political volatilities and fragile states with Political volatilities and fragile states with increasingly reduced capacity to address increasingly reduced capacity to address risksrisks


OverviewOverview

1.1. Poverty, food insecurity, new complex Poverty, food insecurity, new complex risks – now and emergingrisks – now and emerging

2.2. Agenda for research, investment, and Agenda for research, investment, and actionaction


Agenda: A new pro-poor Agenda: A new pro-poor risk prevention, risk prevention, reduction, and management strategyreduction, and management strategy

1.1. Promote agriculture growth with Promote agriculture growth with technology and institutional technology and institutional innovationsinnovations to prevent risks to prevent risks

2.2. Innovate in Innovate in insuranceinsurance systems systems

3.3. Facilitate open trade and Facilitate open trade and reduce reduce market volatilitymarket volatility

4.4. Expand Expand social protectionsocial protection and child and child nutrition actionnutrition action


Actions for agric. productivity enhancement Actions for agric. productivity enhancement that serves food securitythat serves food security

• Access to inputs Access to inputs (e.g. quality seeds, fertilizer, feed, veterinary drugs)(e.g. quality seeds, fertilizer, feed, veterinary drugs)

• Access to services, extension Access to services, extension

• Investment in rural infrastructure Investment in rural infrastructure (rural roads, electrification, water and irrigation) (rural roads, electrification, water and irrigation)

• Agricultural research and innovation:Agricultural research and innovation: triple triple the investment incl. the CGIAR by 2020the investment incl. the CGIAR by 2020


Innovate in insurance systemsInnovate in insurance systems

• Develop new insurance products (e.g. index-Develop new insurance products (e.g. index-based weather insurance)based weather insurance)

• Explore new delivery channels (e.g. NGOs, Explore new delivery channels (e.g. NGOs, community support networks)community support networks)

• Invest in information and technology (e.g. Invest in information and technology (e.g. geographic information databases)geographic information databases)

• Provide smart insurance subsidies for the poorProvide smart insurance subsidies for the poor


Calm markets and facilitate open tradeCalm markets and facilitate open trade

1.1. Keep trade openKeep trade open even at times of global and even at times of global and regional food shortageregional food shortage

2.2. Establish grain Establish grain reserves policyreserves policy at global level at global level as a risk management tool to prevent spikesas a risk management tool to prevent spikes

• shared physical reserves, andshared physical reserves, and• virtual reserve (a new institution at global virtual reserve (a new institution at global

levellevel))


Invest in social protection and child Invest in social protection and child nutrition actionnutrition action

Protective actions e.g.:Protective actions e.g.:• Cash transfersCash transfers

• Employment-based food security programsEmployment-based food security programs

Preventive actions e.g.:Preventive actions e.g.:• School feeding (new insights)School feeding (new insights)

• Early childhood nutrition programs Early childhood nutrition programs

Focus on children, women, and poorestFocus on children, women, and poorest


IFPRI LAC research strategy forIFPRI LAC research strategy for

• Target countries and regions with high food Target countries and regions with high food insecurity levels and prevalence of insecurity levels and prevalence of undernourishmentundernourishment

• Analyze the range of problems of poor people, Analyze the range of problems of poor people, both in urban and rural areasboth in urban and rural areas

• Agricultural productivity opportunities and Agricultural productivity opportunities and sustainabilitysustainability

• Trade and investment opportunitiesTrade and investment opportunities

In partnership with regional and national In partnership with regional and national organizationsorganizations

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