Food System and Adapting to

Global Environmental Changes inRTB basin Nepal

Ajaya Dixit, Madhukar Upadhya and Kanchan Mani Dixit

Nepal Water Conservation Foundation New Delhi 2009

Study Districts

KapilvastuRupandehiNawalparasi

RTB Basin in Indo-Ganga Plains (IGP III)

Major crops grownPaddy is the major crops grown by about 98 percent of the households.

60 per cent of land has seasonal irrigation facility

Use of technology

Farming tools and technology are mostly traditional.Only 10 percent farmers use modern methods of farming.

Employment

About two third dependent on agriculture Rest on business, service and wage labor Low in industries

Monsoon flood is recurrent

Increasing trend of out-migration

Ponds and wetland are gradually being encroached

Characteristics

Food System Activities

Producing Food Mostly rice, maize and little wheat

Processing and packaging Local level activity, provided by Nepali and (dominantly) Indian traders.

Distributing and retailing food

Mostly local traders and truck owners. Food Corporation of Nepal (FoN) does distribute food but inefficient.

Consuming food Mostly at household level , festivals. In restaurant in municipalities for local gentry and development agents in transit .

Science

Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase frequency will augment flood risk (IPCC, 2007).

Downscaling study in RTB basin suggests climate will become more erratic as more heat is pumped into atmosphere (Stapleton, 2009).

Implications For NRM Untimely rainfall

Short term heavy rainfall

Increasing magnitude and frequency of floods in rivers: inundation, bank cutting, sand casting

Flash floods

Deficit rainfall: Frequent droughts

Rise in temperature will affect food production, diseases, debilitate health.

Climate Change Impact

Vulnerability Assessment of Food System(Food utilization)

Food security determinants

GEC stress to which exposed

Sensitivity to GEC stress

Coping capacity Overall vulnerability

Nutritional valueprotein (pulses, milk)

Water shortages, changing rainfall time

HighLess land will be allocated for pulses when rice production declines.

LowSwitching to low water demanding pulses is difficult because of weak agriculture services.

High Less land is allocated for pulses

Social value Paddy and lentil

Water shortages High Food other than rice (e.g. maize) is least preferred.

MediumSome ability to purchase

Increasing

Food safetyAflotoxin

Increased humidity and fog

HighRudimentary storage

and handling

LowLow because of lack of appropriate storage

HighLikely to increase

Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Access)

Food security determinants

GEC stress to which exposed

Sensitivity of determinant to GEC stress

Coping capacity Overall vulnerability

Affordability Floods, drought, and fog (cold waves)

High Food prices increase during floods, prolonged drought, and cold waves

Low Low incomecapacity to adapt to floods, and fog period Increasing cost of irrigation

Highlikely to decrease with access to information and communication (eg. weather forecasting)

Allocation (intra community)

Floods High Disruption of distribution systems

MediumExpanding markets

Lowincreasing role of NGOs to force government to make food available

Preference (rice)

Changing rainfall pattern (time, intensity, duration).

HighDelay in planting

reduces paddy yield

MediumSome ability to purchase

HighLikely to increase

Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Availability)

Food security determinants

GEC stress to which exposed

Sensitivity of determinant to GEC stress

Coping capacity Overall vulnerability

ProductionRice and maize

Floods and excess rain, delayed or deficit monsoon rain

High Land and crop are washed away, excess rain reduces maize production

Low capacity to adapt to floods, and Increasing cost of irrigation

High (but likely to decrease with access to information and communication eg. weather forecasting)

DistributionTransport of food.

Floods High Damages to roads, bridges and trails.

LowLack of appropriate storage, low income .

High Rise in transport cost, increasing cost re-building and maintaining infrastructures.

Exchangeduring monsoon

Floods HighWage earning and distribution declines during floods

Medium Limited capacity to store food

HighLikely to increase

Movement of food items in out of RTB Basin

Settlements along southern border import food from India also export. Import volume far exceeds export.

State

Activities

Consuming

Availability– Production – Distribution– Exchange

Access– Affordability– Allocation– Preference

Utilization– Nutritional value– Social values– Food safety

Outcomes

Producing

Distributingretailing/selling

Householder/ farmers

NGO/civil

society

Processing/packaging

Privatesectors

Actors

• Adaptation is more than coping. In a well adapted system people and the environmental and other features they value should do better

• Baseline survival is not the objective but continued development and improvement in the quality of life is

• Adaptation is ability to shift strategies • And such strategies should not lead to ill effects or no

mal-adaptation (socio-economic or environmental)

Our approach

Autonomous Adaptation: What populations “do” in response to the selective pressures and opportunities they face.

Planned adaptation: Proactive identification of climate impacts and taking specific, often carefully targeted, steps to respond.

Most “action” are likely to be autonomous

Larger systems help adaptation

Most government and donor interventions focus on planned adaptation

Attribution is essential

We need to make distinctions

Institutions, organizations and networks

Systems:

Physical, Social, and Knowledge: early warning

Core Systems:Water Food

EnergyEcosystems

Governance

Social Protection

Adapted from GAT (2008)

Conceptualizing Adaptation Framework

• The vulnerability of distributional system to GECs and on food system outcomes.• Cross country comparison of policies (India; Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Nepal) as they relate to food system outcomes.• Early warning system combining modern and locally based mechanism. • Identify barriers to successful health related planned and autonomous adaptation to GEC stressor.• Understanding the role migration and factors driving it has to identify tangible both course of action for vulnerable communities and managing other impacts of GECs. • The role of conserving and expanding wetlands to serve asflood and storm buffers as well as food production and source of livelihood for marginalized communities.

Research issues identified in RTB Basin

• Improved strategies for decision-making in an uncertain future.• The strength and impediments for effective horizontal linkages between different agencies, and vertically between local, meso, and national levels to enable flexible policies and practice to enable adaptation.• How do link between penetration of basic energy, water, transport, finance, health, communication and other infrastructure, diversification of livelihoods and the ability to shift strategies as condition changes contribute to household food security.

Issues Identified for further broad research

Thank You