fooddrinkeurope: economic bulletin q4 2012
DESCRIPTION
FoodDrinkEurope: Economic Bulletin Q4 2012. Marzo 2013TRANSCRIPT
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Economic Bulletin
Q4 2012
At A Glance – Summary of Q4 highlights EU food and drink industry evolution during Q4 2012 against major economic trends in the EU
EVOLUTION
OF MAIN
AGRICULTURAL
RAW MATERIAL
PRICES
Note 1: Except for imports and exports data which represent evolution of the current quarter compared to the same
quarter of the previous year, all other changes are represented with respect to the previous quarter of the same year.
Note 2: Unless otherwise specified, EU refers to the EU 27 in the text.
Economic trends in the EU
A general overview of the EU economic environment is given by data and trends shown in the table below. This
provides the background against which the analysis for the food and drink sector is carried out in the following
sections of the economic bulletin.
Table 1: Economic trends in the EU in recent periods
* With respect to previous quarter/month
** With respect to the same period (either quarter or month) in the previous year
Source: Eurostat, March 2013
2011q4 2012q1 2012q2 2012q3 2012q4 2012q4
Quarterly variations
(% change)*
Annual variations
(% change)**
Manufacturing sector (NACE Rev. 2)
Industrial production index -1.1 -0.7 -0.8 0.4 -2.3 -3.3
All sectors
Private final consumption
(volume) -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3
2012m8 2012m9 2012m10 2012m11 2012m12 2012m12
Retail trade volumes Monthly variations
(% change)*
Annual variations
(% change)**
All sectors
0.3 -1.1 -0.7 0.3 -0.7 -2.0
Food, drinks and Tobacco
0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 -1.2
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The EU manufacturing industrial production index decreased (2.3%) in Q4 of 2012. In the same period, private
consumption (volumes) registered a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter, i.e. -0.2%. The yearly
comparison shows that the industrial production index decreased markedly in Q4 of 2012 compared to the same
quarter of the previous year, i.e. by -3.3%. Private consumption also decreased compared to the change registered
in the same quarter of 2011, but to a far lesser extent, i.e. -0.3%.
The (all sectors) volume of retail trade decreased by 0.7% in December (compared to November 2012), while
retail trade in food, drinks and tobacco decreased by 0.4%. Among the Member States for which data are
available, total retail trade fell in twelve, rose in eight and remained stable in Finland. The largest decreases were
registered in Romania (-3.2%), Spain (-2.2%) and Slovenia (-2.1%), and the highest increases in Luxembourg
and Poland (both +2.2%) and Estonia (+1.9%).1
FOOD AND DRINK INDUSTRY INDICATORS IN Q4 OF 2012
1. Food and drink industry output index decreased
Food and drink industry output (production) in the EU fell by 0.36% in Q4 of 2012 compared to the previous
quarter. This is in line with the negative trend experienced by the manufacturing production index in the same
period (see the above section: Economic trends in the EU).
Q4 of 2012 represented a quarter of mixed performances in terms of production at the Member State level. Austria
(+1.36%), Czech Republic (+0.49%) and Sweden (+0.20%) reached positive production index growth rates,
whereas Bulgaria (-2.84%), Spain (-1.35%) and Finland (-0.75%) remained on their negative trend of the previous
quarter. The best performers whose production index growth rates even exceeded the positive growth rates of the
previous quarter include Ireland (+7.31%), Estonia (+1.41%) and Germany (+0.72%).
Table 2: Industry production index, quarterly growth
Member State
2012 Q3/2012 Q2
(% change)
2012 Q4/2012 Q3
(% change)
EU27 0.52 -0.36
Austria -0.16 1.36
Belgium 1.36 0.42
Bulgaria -1.62 -2.84
Czech Republic -0.37 0.49
Denmark 2.60 -1.07
Estonia 0.96 1.41
Finland -1.47 -0.75
Germany 0.05 0.72
Greece 0.21 -3.20
Hungary 0.58 -3.27
Ireland 1.23 7.31
Italy 1.27 -2.31
Latvia 1.65 -1.63
Lithuania 4.11 0.30
Netherlands 0.32 -0.03
Poland 1.44 0.90
Portugal 1.88 0.18
Spain -0.74 -1.35
Sweden -2.47 0.20
United Kingdom 0.34 -2.95
Source: Eurostat, Short-Term Business Statistics, NACE Rev. 2, March 2013
1 Eurostat news release, Euro indicators, 21/2013.
3/10
2. Evolution of main agricultural raw material prices
The following shows a mixed picture for raw material prices:
Oils and oil crops
Grains Dairy Soybean Rape
Cocoa
Coffee
Sugar
Corn/
Maize
Soft
wheat
WMP
SMP
Oil
Bean
Meal
Seed
Oil
Palm
oil
Source: FoodDrinkEurope compilation
Cocoa and coffee
Quarterly developments: After having experienced positive growth of 9.3% in Q3 of 2012, cocoa prices
decreased on average by 1.7% in Q4 of 2012. A similar negative trend was also experienced by coffee composite
prices which fell by 9.6% in Q4 of 2012 against the 1% drop of the previous quarter.
Year-on-year developments: The year-on-year comparison shows that, the New York cocoa market recorded a
0.71% decrease with respect to Q4 of 2011. However, coffee composite prices were significantly lower than their
level in the same quarter of 2011, i.e. by 28.1%.
Source: International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) and International Coffee Organisation (ICO), March 2013
Sugar
Quarterly developments: EU white sugar prices slightly increased (+2.0%) in Q4 of 2012. In the same quarter,
U.S. market price continued to decrease, i.e. by 19.4% compared to Q3 of 2012.
Year-on-year developments: On average, EU market price for white sugar was 12.4% higher in Q4 of 2012 than
the same quarter of the previous year whereas the U.S. market price was 37.4% lower than the average in Q4 of
2011. In comparison, the world sugar price was 12.6% lower than the average of the same quarter of 2011.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan-0
7
Apr-
07
Jul-0
7
Oct-
07
Jan-0
8
Apr-
08
Jul-0
8
Oct-
08
Jan-0
9
Apr-
09
Jul-0
9
Oct-
09
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-1
0
Oct-
10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-1
1
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-1
2
Oct-
12
Cocoa NY market price and coffee world price (monthly averages, current price, $/t)
Cocoa price in $/t Coffee composite price in $/t
4/10
Source: European Commission – Circa (Regulations (EC) No 562/2005 Article 6(1) and 479/2010 Article 2), United States
Department of Agriculture, March 2013
Grains
Corn maize prices
Quarterly developments: Contrary to the positive trend of the previous two quarters, EU maize prices slightly
decreased in Q4 of 2012 (compared to Q3 of 2012), i.e. by 0.9%. U.S. maize prices also decreased in the same
period, i.e. by 7.1%, falling from the record price level of the previous quarter which experts claimed to be a result
of drought and rising industrial demand.
Year-on-year developments: On average, EU maize prices were 31.4% higher in Q4 of 2012 than the same
quarter of the previous year. Similarly but to a lesser extent, U.S. maize prices were 24.0% higher in Q4 of 2012
than in the same quarter of the previous year.
Source: FAO and European Commission (DG Agri), March 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan '0
7
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan '0
8
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan '0
9
Apr
Jul
Oct
Ja
n '1
0
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan '1
1
Apr
July
Oct
Jan '1
2
Apr
Jul
Oct
White Sugar prices (monthly averages, current prices, €/t)
World price US market price
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
Jan-0
7
Apr-
07
Jul-
07
Oct-
07
Jan-0
8
Apr-
08
Jul-
08
Oct-
08
Jan-0
9
Apr-
09
Jul-
09
Oct-
09
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-
10
Oct-
10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-
11
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-
12
Oct-
12
Corn/maize market prices (monthly averages, current prices, €/t)
DG Agri EU market price €/t FAO US market price €/t
5/10
Soft wheat prices
Quarterly developments: Similarly to the previous quarter trend but with a slower pace, EU maize prices
continued to increase in Q4 of 2012 (compared to Q3 of the same year) i.e. by 6.6%. U.S. maize prices decreased
during the same period i.e. by 2.3%.
Year-on-year developments: On average, EU maize prices were 33.9% higher in Q4 of 2012 than the same
quarter of the previous year. Similarly, U.S. soft wheat prices were 40.3% higher in Q3 of 2012 than in the same
quarter of the previous year.
Source: FAO and European Commission (DG Agri), March 2013
Dairy
Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP)
Quarterly developments: Similarly to the previous quarter trend but with a slower pace, EU SMP prices continued
to increase in Q4 of 2012 (compared to Q3 of the same year) i.e. by 11.8%. Moreover, for the first time since Q3 of
2009, average EU prices in Q4 of 2012 were higher than world market prices.
Year-on-year developments: The yearly comparison shows that, on average, EU SMP prices were 15.1% higher
in Q4 of 2012 than the same period in 2011.
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
Jan-0
7
Apr-
07
Jul-
07
Oct-
07
Jan-0
8
Apr-
08
Jul-
08
Oct-
08
Jan-0
9
Apr-
09
Jul-
09
Oct-
09
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-
10
Oct-
10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-
11
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-
12
Oct-
12
Soft wheat market prices (monthly averages, current prices, €/t)
DG Agri EU market price €/t FAO US market price €/t
6/10
Source: FAO, CLAL consultancy (discontinued after January 2011 to the benefit of the European Commission source),
European Commission – Circa (Regulations (EC) No 562/2005 Article 6(1) and 479/2010 Article 2), March 2013
Whole Milk Powder (WMP)
Quarterly developments: Generally higher than world market prices since Q3 of 2010, EU WMP average prices
continued to increase in Q4 of 2012, i.e. by 9.6% from the previous quarter.
Year-on-year developments: The yearly comparison shows that, on average, EU WMP prices remained fairly
stable (- 0.1%) in Q4 of 2012 compared to the same quarter of 2011.
Source: FAO, CLAL consultancy (discontinued after January 2011 to the benefit of the European Commission source),
European Commission – Circa (Regulations (EC) No 562/2005 Article 6(1) and 479/2010 Article 2), March 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Jan '0
7
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan '0
8
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan '0
9
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan '1
0
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan '1
1
Ap
r
Jul
Oct
Jan '1
2
Apr
Jul
Oct
SMP (monthly averages, current prices, €/t)
FAO €/t World market price CLAL €/t EU market price
CIRCA €/t EU market price R. 1234/07 €/t EU reference price
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Ja
n '0
8
Ma
r
Ma
y
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan '0
9
Ma
r
Ma
y
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan '1
0
Ma
r
Ma
y
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan '1
1
Ma
r
Ma
y
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan '1
2
Ma
r
Ma
y
Jul
Sep
Nov
WMP (monthly averages, current prices, €/t)
World market price CLAL €/t EU market price CIRCA €/t EU market price
Q4 2012
Q3 2009
7/10
Oils and oil crops
Quarterly developments: In Q4 of 2012 oils and oils crops prices experienced a general decrease. The decrease
in prices was most pronounced for Palm oil and Soybeans with a price decline of 18.5% and 10.1%, respectively.
Moreover, after having significantly increased during the previous quarter, prices of Soybean meal (+29.3%) started
to decrease in Q4 of 2012, i.e. by 6.9%.
Year-on-year developments: The yearly comparison shows that in Q4 of 2012 only Soybean meal, Soybeans and
Rapeseed prices were significantly higher than in the same quarter of 2011: by 64.6%, 23.7% and 4.7%
respectively. On the contrary Palm oil, Rape oil and Soybean oil were 21.0%, 5.8% and 4.6% lower in Q4 of 2012
than the same period of the previous year.
Source: World Bank and FAO, March 2013
3. Price developments in the food supply chain
Consumer prices (1.34%), producer prices (1.31%) and inflation (0.83%) all grew on average in Q4 of 2012.
Source: Eurostat (Food supply chain monitor), March 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Jan-0
7
Apr-
07
Jul-
07
Oct-
07
Jan-0
8
Apr-
08
Jul-
08
Oct-
08
Jan-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Jul-
09
Oct-
09
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-
10
Oct-
10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-
11
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-
12
Oct-
12
World Bank Soybean oil $/t World Bank Soybeans $/t
World Bank Soybean meal $/t World Bank Palm oil $/t
Oils and oilcrop prices (monthly averages, current prices $/t)
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
140.0
145.0
2007
M0
1
2007M
04
2007
M0
7
2007
M1
0
2008
M0
1
2008
M0
4
2008
M0
7
2008
M1
0
2009
M0
1
2009
M0
4
2009
M0
7
2009
M1
0
2010
M0
1
2010
M0
4
2010
M0
7
2010
M1
0
2011
M0
1
2011M
04
2011
M0
7
2011
M1
0
2012
M0
1
2012
M0
4
2012
M0
7
2012
M1
0
Agricultural Commodity Price Producer Price
EU27: Price developments in the food supply chain
8/10
4. Slight increase in employment index in the EU food and drink industry
After having experienced a slight decrease in Q2 and Q3, the labour input index for the food and drink industry
increased (+0.28%) in Q4 of 2012. This is contrary to the performance shown by the (total) manufacturing sector
whose employment index decreased by 0.31% in the same period.
When looking at the industry breakdown, the food sector employment index increased by 0.1%, whereas the
beverages industry employment index increased by 1.02% in comparison with the previous quarter.
Source: Eurostat (SBS), Nace Rev. 2, seasonally adjusted data, March 2013.
5. Food and drink industry turnover continued to increase
The food and drink industry’s turnover index increased by 0.88% in Q4 of 2012 compared to the previous quarter.
Source: Eurostat (SBS), seasonally adjusted data, March 2013
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
Labour input index (2010=100) : food and drink industry trends compared to total manufacturing
Manufacturing Manufacture of food products Manufacture of beverages
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
20
12
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
EU27: Turnover index (2010 = 100)
Manufacture of food products and beverages
9/10
6. Imported food prices increased in Q4 of 2012
Imported food prices registered a slight increase in Q4 of 2012, up to 0.49% from the previous quarter.
Source: Eurostat (SBS), March 2013
Exchange rates
In Q4 of 2012, the euro has appreciated against most major non-EU currencies in an environment of low volatility.
The table below gives details for the euro appreciation against the currencies of major trading partners.
Table 3: Evolution of quarterly average exchange rates
1 EUR= 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 Q4 2012/ Q3 2012
%
Australian Dollar 1.20 1.25 3.73
Canadian Dollar 1.24 1.29 3.24
Brazilian Real 2.54 2.67 5.17
Swiss Franc 1.20 1.21 0.37
Chinese Yuan Renminbi 7.94 8.10 2.05
Japanese Yen 98.30 105.12 6.94
New Zealand Dollar 1.55 1.58 1.87
United States Dollar 1.25 1.30 3.72
Pound Sterling 0.79 0.81 2.0
Source: ECB, bilateral exchange rates, March 2013
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
20
10
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
Euro area
Food and drink import price index (2010 = 100)
10/10
7. Trade: Both imports and exports increased in Q4 of 2012 year-on-year
The EU trade balance in food and drink products continued to improve during the Q4 of 2012 compared to the
same period of 2011. The export surplus amounted to nearly €6.5 billion, which marks an increase of €1.5 billion
year-on-year.
Trade balance in € million
Q4
2011 2012
Total of Food and Drink 4,996 6,482
Meat products 1,059 1,306
Fish and sea food products -3,339 -2,959
Processed fruit and vegetables -853 -591
Oils and fats -2,694 -3,171
Dairy products 2,081 2,124
Grain mill and starch products 347 311
Bakery & farinaceous products 699 814
Other food products 2,130 2,310
Prepared animal feed 508 586
Drinks 4,983 5,714
FoodDrinkEurope - represents the European food and drink industry - the leading industrial sector and major EU employer and
exporter. FoodDrinkEurope’s role is to represent the food and drink industry’s interests, at the level of both European and
international institutions. FoodDrinkEurope’s membership consists of 24 national federations and 3 observers, 25 European
sector associations and 18 major food and drink companies.
For further information, please contact:
Lisa McCooey, Communications Director / Deputy Director General. Tel: + 32 2 508 10 24 -
Imports Q4 of 2012 Exports Q4 of 2012
Total food and drink imports amounted to 17.1
billion, i.e. 3.5% more compared to the previous
year. However, a real import increase in terms of
quantity and value was observed for only a limited
group of alcoholic and soft drinks, and grain mill and
starch products. For a number of foodstuffs, the import
growth in terms of value was linked to the price factor,
while the imported quantity was in fact lower than a
year ago. Finally, some products registered a real
import reduction both in terms of volume and value,
e.g. dairy (-11.8% in value and -13.4% in volume), fruit
and vegetables (-7% in value and -14.4% in volume),
and less significantly, spirits and cider.
Total food and drink exports amounted to €23.6
billion, i.e. 9.6% more compared to the same period
of 2011. Similar to Q3 of 2012, the value of exported
drinks increased proportionately more than export of
other foodstuffs. Nonetheless, the year-on-year export
growth registered for fish products, oils and fats and
spirits was also very positive (+30.2%, 21%, 20%
respectively) and matched with a similar trend in terms
of exported quantities. Finally, other food and drink
products contributed also to the growth in export value,
despite witnessing a double-digit volume reduction. A
single-digit volume reduction was registered for wines,
beer and meat products.