fooled by randomness role of chance in markets and life proper1

8/11/2019 Fooled by Randomness Role of Chance in Markets and Life PROPER1

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/fooled-by-randomness-role-of-chance-in-markets-and-life-proper1 1/219

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' C' $ Q +AL$ U W R W N P$ W 1$

= CL $ LA0 ,< L$ J U R Y U$

Q &. 0A <& +$ C +,$ U I R h $

9 C. . C= ?$ W h R U $

+ &+ R , A = A < & +$ T?$ L AC A< LA <= <C + L$ W J $

'C A < &+C . < A ? Q[

C+, $ T <C L L$ < +$ 0+, ' L A C +, < +/$

\ '& T CT <. <A?$ 1 Z U R J I $

' C .< A?$ I U R W$

' =0 'L <Q $ / ' C BB C '$ J I R h $

' 9 ' + = $ = CL $ \ '& T . B$ 1 h W R M N $

' / <+ /$ Z Z P$ U I ^$

' . </ <& +$ J J $

' Q 'L $ E 0 '< +/$ A LA$ J I R h $

' > A& ' <= <C + L$ 1 U M$

' <= >$ \ & \ . $ 1 I N R h $

; < BT C0 , P$ @ ' A> 0 '$ I$

' <L($ h h R M $

C Q 'L <& +$ 1 Z R 1 J $

& 9$ T .& #$ 0 \$ I N R 1 $

'<L ($ B C + C / ' L$ h U R W $

'<L ($ B CL 0 ' ' L$ 1 U U R W$

; & TT R[ ' <. . AP$ @ . C< +$ M Y$

; & T ' A L& + P$ ` 0 .< C+$ Y W $

: ; &T < +$ K & & , :$ < +Q L AB + A$ \ &. <= ?$ 1 I M $

; & / ' LP$ ` < B$ W N$

; & B C +$ 4 +CA $ 1 U h$

; & G C+ P$ ` C + RH C + 0 .$ 1 U J$

; 0 LL <C +$ T &+ , L$ Y 1 R M $

; 0 LL <C +$ ' &0 . AA $ I Y R U $

;0L L < C+$ '0T . QW

;0 L L< C+$ L =< + A <L AL$ h 1 R I $

4 C/ C+ P$ S C ' .$ 1 h W $

L CB \ . $ \ CA> L$ M 1 R h $

4 CB0 . L& + P$ - C 0.$ 1 M Y$

LC +, \<. $ 99 =A$ 1 M I R J$

4 C + AC$ O $ 2 +L A< A0 A $ 1 M Y$

L =C .< +/$ \ ' & \ ' A?$ & 9$ ' C + , &B+ L L$ Z Y R W$

*/A'1#-<$#B1#

%GI9G%

4 => &. L P$ H ? ' & + $ 1 U W $

L =< += $ I P$ Z$

\ > <.& L& \> ?$ & 9$ L =< += $ h P$ W W R 1 1 N$

\ &L <A <Q $ C + ,$ + & 'B C A< Q $ 1 Z Y R U$

C +,$ L =< + A< LA L$ 1 W N$

L 0 'Q <Q &' L> <\$ T <C L L$ 1 M N R 1 $

L ?BB A '?$ C + ,$ W N R h $

L = < + A <9 <=$ < + A . . = A0C . L$ J N R M $

L = < + A <LB $ W U $

L =< + A< LA L$ Z P$ 1 W N$

' <L ($ B C L 0 ' ' L$ C + ,$ B . A , &#+ $ & 9$

1 W W U$ 1 U U R W$

<+$ A ' C, <+ /$ I W R h I$

L .9 R= & +A 'C , <= A< &+$ 1 U Z R U $

L . 9R =& +A' &.$ 1 Y W R U 1 $

4 + CA P$ ; &B C + $ 1 U h$

< &N4c %

GH[ %

4 + = C$ 1 W M$

L '& A& +<+$ I I R h P $ U h$

4 ><.. 'P$ ; & T ' A$ h Z R J P $ Z h R M $

L > &' A< +/$ Y N $

L </+ C.$ C + ,$ + &<L $ 1 J J R Y P$ 1 U N R 1$

L </ +C .<+ /P$ > & 'B & + L$ C + ,$ I I R h P$ U h$

4 <B\ L& +$ d 8 ^` ^ e$ A ' <C .$ 1 Z M R J$

L <' + LP$ A > $ 1 Y 1 $

L ( \ A<= <LB$ 1 U h R Z$

L( # + LL$ 1 N P$ U M R W U P$ 1 M J$

4 (<+ + 'P$ F ^O ^$ 1 Y U R W$

L B && A> <+ /$ ( '+ .$ 1 J J R Y$

4 & =' CA L$ 1 U h $

\ '$ ' . CA <& + L$ h 1 R I $

C + ,$ Q &< =<+ /$ B C ' ( A$ = C..L$ U U R W $

A . Q<L<& +$ 1 J h R M P$ 1 Y h R M$

E B\ . LB C + P$ H C 0 ' <= $ 1 W h$

A LAC T. $ L AC A B + AL$ 1 N 1 R I$

A <B $ L '< L$ W 1 R h P $ W Y $

A ' C= ($ ' = &' ,$ 1 I J P$ 1 I Y R h 1$

A ' C, ' L k A 'C , < +/$ M$

C \ \ C ' C + = $ C +,$ <+ A .. =A$ Y N$

T & , ?$ . C+ / 0C / $ I h $

T &LL L$ h I R M $

B ' / <+ /$ B C '( A$ T &+ ,L$ J U R Y M$

fooled by randomness role of chance in markets and life proper1

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