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Document of
The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No: 66455-MX
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT
PROGRAM DOCUMENT
FOR A PROPOSED LOAN
IN THE AMOUNT OF US$300,751,879.70
TO THE
UNITED MEXICAN STATES
FOR A
SECOND UPPER SECONDARY EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN
February 8, 2012
Human Development Department
Mexico and Colombia Country Management Unit
Latin America and the Caribbean Region
This document is being made publicly available prior to Board consideration. This does not
imply a presumed outcome. This document may be updated following Board consideration and
the updated document will be made publicly available in accordance with the Bank’s policy on
Access to Information.
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i
GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR
January 1 – December 31
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Exchange Rate Effective as of January 20, 2012
Currency Unit Mexican Peso
MX$1.00 US$0.0736
US$1.00 MX$13.591
WEIGHTS AND MEASURES
Metric System
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
ANUIES Asociación Nacional de Universidades e Instituciones de
Educación Superior (National Association of Universities and
Institutions of Higher Education)
APL Adaptable Program Loan
CBC Competency-Based Curriculum
CONAEDU
COPEEMS
Consejo Nacional de Autoridades Educativas (National
Council of Education Authorities)
Consejo para la Evaluación de la Educación Media Superior
(National Council for the Assessment in Upper Secondary
Education)
COSDAC
CPAR
CPS
Coordinación Sectorial de Desarrollo Académico (Academic
Development Unit)
Country Procurement Assessment Report
Country Partnership Strategy
DPL Development Policy Loan
EMS Educación Media Superior (Upper Secondary Education)
ENIGH Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos en los Hogares
(National Household Survey of Income and Expenditures)
ENLACE Evaluación Nacional del Logro Académico de Centros
Escolares (National Evaluation of Academic Achievement in
Schools)
EXCALE Examen para la Calidad y el Logro Educativos (Education
Quality and Achievement Test)
FCL Flexible Credit Line
FDI
FY
Foreign Direct Investment
Fiscal Year
GDP Gross Domestic Product
IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
IDB Inter-American Development Bank
IMF International Monetary Fund
INEE Instituto Nacional para la Evaluación de la Educación
(National Institute for the Evaluation of Education)
MCC Marco Curricular Común (Common Curricular Framework)
MUSE Mexico Upper Secondary Education
ii
NAFIN National Financial Development Bank (Nacional Financiera,
SNC)
OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
PFM Public Financial Management
PISA Program for International Student Assessments
PND Plan Nacional de Desarrollo (National Development Program)
PROFORDEMS
PROFORDIR
Programa de Formación Docente de Educación Media
Superior (In-Service Teacher Capacity Program for Upper
Secondary Education)
Programa de Formación de Directores para Educación Media
Superior (School Director Capacity Building Program for
Upper Secondary Education)
PROFORHCOM
PSBR
RIEMS
Programa de Formación de Recursos Humanos Basada en
Competencias (Skills-Based Human Resources Development
Program)
Public Sector Borrowing Requirements
Reforma Integral de la Educación Media Superior (Integral
Upper Secondary Education Reform)
SEDESOL Secretaría de Desarrollo Social (Ministry of Social
Development)
SEMS Sub-Secretaría de Educación Media Superior (Sub Secretariat
of Upper Secondary Education)
SEP Secretaría de Educación Pública (Ministry of Public
Education)
SHCP Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (Ministry of Finance
and Public Credit)
SIAT
SIGEMS
SINATA
SNB
TVE
Sistema de Alerta Temprana (Early Warning System)
Sistema de Mejora Continua de la Gestión de la Educación
Media Superior (System for Continuous Improvement of
Upper Secondary Education)
Sistema Nacional de Tutoría Académica (National Academic
Tutoring System)
Sistema Nacional de Bachillerato (National Upper Secondary
Education System)
Technical Vocational Education
UNAM Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (National
Autonomous University of Mexico)
UPEPE
UPN
Unidad de Planeación y Evaluación de Políticas Educativas
(Planning and Evaluation Unit for Education Policy)
Universidad Pedagógica Nacional (National Pedagogical
University)
Vice President:
Country Director:
Sector Director:
Sector Manager:
Task Team Leader:
Hasan A. Tuluy
Gloria M. Grandolini
Keith E. Hansen
Chingboon Lee
Erik A. Bloom
Co-Task Team Leader: Peter A. Holland
iii
UNITED MEXICAN STATES
SECOND UPPER SECONDARY EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LOAN AND PROGRAM SUMMARY ............................................................................... v
I. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 1 II. COUNTRY CONTEXT ............................................................................................ 2
Recent Economic Developments ................................................................... 3
Macroeconomic Outlook and Debt Sustainability ........................................ 6
III. SECTOR CONTEXT AND THE GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAM ............... 11 The Upper Secondary Education Sector ...................................................... 11
The Upper Secondary Education Reform .................................................... 13 Public Expenditures on Upper Secondary Education ................................. 20
IV. BANK SUPPORT TO THE GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAM ......................... 22 Link to CPS ................................................................................................... 22 Collaboration with the IMF and other Donors ............................................ 22 Relationship with other Bank Operations .................................................... 22
Lessons Learned ............................................................................................ 23 Analytical Underpinnings ............................................................................. 25
V. THE PROPOSED SECOND UPPER SECONDARY EDUCATION DPL ... 27 Operation Description ................................................................................... 27 Policy Areas ................................................................................................... 30
VI. OPERATION IMPLEMENTATION .................................................................. 35 Poverty and Social Impacts .......................................................................... 35 Environmental Aspects ................................................................................. 38 Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation .............................................. 38
Fiduciary Aspects .......................................................................................... 39 Disbursement and Auditing .......................................................................... 40 Risks and Risk Mitigation ............................................................................ 41
ANNEXES
ANNEX 1: LETTER OF DEVELOPMENT POLICY ....................................................... 43 ANNEX 2: SECOND UPPER SECONDARY EDUCATION DPL POLICY MATRIX 56
ANNEX 3: FUND RELATIONS NOTE ............................................................................. 62 ANNEX 4: COUNTRY AT A GLANCE ............................................................................ 63 ANNEX 5: MAP ................................................................................................................... 66
iv
FIGURES
Figure 1: World Bank Support for Education in Mexico ...................................................... 1 Figure 2: Mexico Selected Macroeconomic Charts ............................................................... 4 Figure 3: Enrollment Rate by Grade, Basic and Upper Secondary Education................... 12
Figure 4: Main Elements of the Upper Secondary Reform ................................................. 14 Figure 5: Direct and Indirect Expenditure on the Reform (2006 Million MX$) .............. 21 Figure 6: Probability of Finishing EMS by Income Quintile .............................................. 37
TABLES
Table 1: Main Macroeconomic Indicators (2007-2014), Base Case .................................. 10 Table 2: Mexico’s Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC) ................................................ 15
Table 3: Estimated Public Expenditure on EMS in Mexico ................................................ 20 Table 4: Estimated Per Capita Public Expenditure on EMS in Mexico (real 2006 pesos) 21 Table 5: Triggers and Prior Actions ...................................................................................... 28
Table 6: Expected Program Outcomes for Policy Area 1.................................................... 31 Table 7: Expected Program Outcomes for Policy Area 2.................................................... 34 Table 8: Expected Program Outcomes for Policy Area 3.................................................... 35
BOXES
Box 1: Weakening Global Growth Prospects and Increased Financial Volatility: ............. 9 Box 2: DPL Good Practices and the MUSE DPL Series..................................................... 24
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This Second Upper Secondary Education Development Policy Loan was prepared by a team led by Erik A. Bloom and Peter Anthony Holland, and comprising: Fabiola Altimari Montiel, Maria E. Colchao, Jozef Draaisma, Janet K. Entwistle, Isy Faingold, Abril Ibarra, Javier Luque, Xiomara A. Morel, Antonella Novali, and Víctor Manuel Ordoñez Conde.
The team gratefully acknowledges the support and guidance of Gloria M. Grandolini, Keith E. Hansen, Chingboon Lee, and Wendy Cunningham. The peer reviewers were Eduardo Velez Bustillo, Mark V. Hagerstrom, Juan Manuel Moreno Olmedilla, and Harry Anthony Patrinos. The team acknowledges and is grateful for the collaboration of the Mexican authorities.
v
LOAN AND PROGRAM SUMMARY
UNITED MEXICAN STATES
SECOND UPPER SECONDARY EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN
Borrower The United Mexican States
Implementing Agency Ministry of Public Education (SEP)
Financing Data
US$300,751,879.70 IBRD Flexible Loan with a variable spread,
commitment linked, bullet repayment on August 15, 2023, all
conversion options (currency, interest rate and Caps/Collars), and
February 15 and August 15 as payment dates.
Operation Type
Single-tranche Operation in second Programmatic Development
Policy Loan Series of Three
Main Policy Areas
Improving Flexibility of Upper Secondary Education
Enhancing Quality and Relevance of Upper Secondary
Education
Reducing the Opportunity Cost of Upper Secondary Education
Key Outcome
Indicators
Improving flexibility of the national upper secondary education
system:
(1) The percentage of the upper secondary schools that accept
student transfers and validate equivalencies. Baseline: Less
than 10 percent. End of program: 40 percent
Enhancing quality and relevance of the national upper secondary
education system:
(2) Reduction in dropout rate in upper secondary education
(Educación Media Superior, EMS). Baseline: 41.7 percent in
2008. End of program: 33.0 percent
(3) The percentage of students scoring in the categories good or
excellent in the ENLACE assessment in Spanish (Baseline 52.3
percent in 2008. End of Program: 63.0 percent) and
mathematics. (Baseline: 15.6 percent in 2008. End of program:
35 percent).
Reducing opportunity cost of the national upper secondary
education system:
(4) Increased completion rates in EMS. Baseline: 47 percent in
2008 for lowest quintile. End of program: 52 percent for lowest
quintile
(5) Transition from lower to upper secondary school. Baseline: 57
percent in 2008 for lowest quintile. End of program: 64 percent
for lowest quintile
vi
Program Development
Objective(s) and
Contribution to CPS
The proposed Development Policy Loan (DPL) aims to support the
Government in the implementation of Mexico’s Integral Upper
Secondary Education Reform (Reforma Integral de la Educación
Media Superior, RIEMS) to improve the internal efficiency of
EMS and its responsiveness to the labor market. The
programmatic series would support actions in the following three
areas addressing the key constraints of the EMS system: (i)
improving flexibility of EMS, (ii) enhancing quality and relevance
of education, and (iii) reducing the opportunity cost of EMS.
The proposed DPL is an integral element of the Bank’s
engagement on skills for shared growth as outlined in the Country
Partnership Strategy.
Risks and Risk
Mitigation
Macroeconomic risks. While Mexico has largely recovered from
the economic crisis, the country continues to face risk from the
global economy. In particular, the Mexican economy is dependent
on economic activities in the United States and the recovery in the
latter still appears to be weak. At the same time, the possibility of
an economic crisis in Europe also raises the risk for the Mexican
economy and may put the banking sector under risk. An economic
slowdown could make it difficult for the Mexican Government and
state governments to finance the reform program and provide
additional resources. An economic shock would also lower
employment possibilities for EMS graduates and may make
continued education less attractive for many youth. However, the
strong consensus on the importance of the reform makes it unlikely
that the macroeconomic situation will prevent the Government
from implementing the reforms described in the Mexico Upper
Secondary Education (MUSE) DPL series. The base case estimate
is that the reform will cost around 0.1 percent of the GDP over the
next three decades. The long-term nature of the reform gives the
Government some leeway in slowing certain elements while
maintaining the overall momentum. During the economic
slowdown of 2008-2009, the government gave high priority to
RIEMS and ensured that the reform had adequate resources even as
it reduced funding for other areas.
Political and sustainability risks. At the national level, Mexico
will hold federal elections in 2012. This raises the risk that the new
federal administration (2012-2018) will halt or substantially adjust
the reform. In practice, this is highly unlikely. There is strong
consensus to continue and deepen the reform in the next
administration. The reform program is being supported by the
Federal and all of the State Governments, regardless of the political
party in power. RIEMS was built upon widespread consensus and
almost all EMS systems joined the reform voluntarily. For the
upcoming federal elections, all major political parties have shown
their support for the reform and have indicated their objective to
vii
provide the necessary financing. Congress has also strongly
supported RIEMS and has allocated additional resources. Recent
changes in state administrations have shown that the reform can be
sustained even when there were major changes in state
administration (for example, the state elections in Oaxaca in July
2010).
Risk from Crime and Violence. In recent years, Mexico has seen a
significant uptick in violence in many strata of society. Youth, in
particular, have played a major role both as victims and
perpetrators. Crime and violence could divert the Government’s
attention away from the underlying social problems and towards
―quick fix‖ solutions that would undermine progress in EMS. In
practice, the reform itself is a powerful tool in protecting youth
from crime and violence. As the reform proceeds, more youth will
stay in school and those that graduate will be more likely to gain
employment. In addition, the Federal Government and many other
systems have been actively using Upper Secondary as an
instrument to reduce the number of youth at risk. This is being
accomplished through programs such as CONSTRUYE-T and is
being supported by the Federal Government’s new SIGUELE
Program that seeks to coordinate existing programs and to identify
youth at risk faster and more efficiently.
Institutional Risk. The complexity of the EMS due to its various
systems; the uneven technical capacity across federal, state,
autonomous universities and private establishments that deliver
EMS; and the multi-institutional nature of the reform represent a
risk to an even and timely implementation of the RIEMS. The
creation of SEMS in 2005 has strengthened the coordination of the
EMS as has the creation of National Council of Education
Authorities (CONAEDU-EMS). The RIEMS has fostered
collaboration and consensus among different actors. As part of the
Reform, the newly created institutions such as National Council for
the Assessment in Upper Secondary Education (COPEEMS) have
also received the necessary support and resources to implement the
Reform. In addition, different EMS education establishments are
receiving support to keep pace with the reform.
Operation ID P126297
1
I. INTRODUCTION
1. The World Bank supports Mexico in building skills for inclusive and accelerated
economic growth through a package of knowledge and financial services. As described in
the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), which was discussed by the Board on April 8, 2008
and the CPS Progress Report discussed by the Board on March 25, 2010, the support
concentrates on upper secondary education (Educación Media Superior, EMS), tertiary
education and the science, technology and innovation sector while it also includes sustained
efforts to continuously improve the quality of basic education (see Figure 1). The current
focus is the logical progression of an earlier engagement to improve access to basic education.
The support entails programmatic knowledge services such as the analysis of reforms,
convening services including the exploration of international experience, and development
policy and investment loans.
Figure 1: World Bank Support for Education in Mexico
Access to Basic Education
Quality of Basic Education
Skills for Shared Growth
Kn
ow
led
ge
Ser
vic
es Education Quality (2005)
Education Quality II (2006)
Mexican Alliance for
Education Quality (2009)
Nuevo Leon Technical
Assistance (2010)
Colima evaluation (2010)
Enhancing Productivity,
Knowledge, and Competitiveness in
Mexico (2004)
Upper Secondary Education (2008)
PSIA analysis of the Upper
Secondary Education Reform
(2011)
Education Strategy for Skills for
Shared Growth (2012)
Fin
an
cia
l S
erv
ices
Primary Education Project
(1991)
Initial Education Project (1992)
Primary Education Project II
(1994)
Basic Education Development
Project (1998)
Basic Education Development
Project II (2002)
Basic Education Development
Project III (2004)
Compensatory Education
(2010)
Education Quality Project
(2005)
School Based Management
Project (2010)
Higher Education Financing Project
(1998)
Knowledge and Innovation (1998)
Innovation for Competitiveness
(2005)
Tertiary Education Student
Assistance Project (2006)
Upper Secondary Education DPL
(2009)
Upper Secondary Education DPL II
(2012)
2
2. As a critical element of this engagement, the proposed Upper Secondary
Education Development Policy Loan (DPL) would be the second of a series of loans to
support the Government’s Integral Upper Secondary Education Reform (Reforma
Integral de la Educación Media Superior, RIEMS). The Reform aims to improve the
internal efficiency of upper secondary education and its responsiveness to the labor market.
The programmatic series supports actions in the following three areas addressing the key
constraints of the EMS system: (i) improving flexibility of upper secondary education; (ii)
enhancing quality and relevance of education; and (iii) reducing the opportunity cost of upper
secondary education. The expected long-term outcomes of the reform include a reduction of
dropout rates and an increase in learning outcomes.
3. RIEMS is a long-term process, built upon evidence and consensus. The first
Development Policy Loan, the Upper Secondary Education (MUSE) DPL (P112262, Loan
7887-MX, US$700 million) supported the establishment of the National Upper Secondary
Education System (Sistema Nacional de Bachillerato, SNB), including the development of
minimum standards for students, a student assessment system, a teacher training program, and
a school accreditation system, as well as the consolidation of the EMS scholarship program.
This Loan would further strengthen RIEMS during an important political transition, building
on these achievements by focusing on the approval of technical programs, the operation of the
student assessment and school accreditation systems, the governance of the teacher training
program, and the expansion of services for youth at risk. Annex 2 presents the Policy Matrix
and the Results Framework. The proposed amount for the Second Upper Secondary Education
Development Policy Loan is US$300,751,879.70.
II. COUNTRY CONTEXT
4. Mexico is seeking to improve its competitiveness and to move up in the
technology chain. Mexico is a member of the Organization of Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD). In the last decade, the country established a solid macroeconomic
foundation for growth through prudent fiscal and monetary policy, achieving manageable debt
levels and low inflation. Nevertheless, Mexico’s growth rate even before the 2008 global
downturn was disappointing. There are concerns that Mexico is not making the transition
effectively from a labor-intensive industrial economy to a knowledge-based economy.1
Preparing Mexico’s workforce requires a greater focus on labor market skills and a high
quality education.
5. Mexico faces a long-term challenge of declining productivity and
competitiveness. Mexico has seen a steady decline in its competitiveness ranking: in 1998,
the Global Competitiveness Report ranked Mexico as the 34th
most competitive country in the
world; by 2010, it had dropped to 66th place out of 139 economies. Education plays a major
role in holding back competitiveness. Mexico’s ranking in education in the Global
Competitiveness Report was quite low, with an overall ranking of 79th
place for higher
education training and 120th place for education quality (out of 139 economies).
2 The
education system has not kept up with the demands of the global economy. Mexican workers
1 Farrell, D., A. Puron, and J. K. Remes. 2005. ―Beyond Cheap Labor: Lesson for Developing Economies.‖
McKinsey Quarterly (1):99–109. 2World Economic Forum. Global Competitiveness Index, 2010-2011.
3
on average have the lowest level of education in the OECD. At the same time, Mexico has the
lowest graduation rate at the upper secondary level and the lowest scores on international
achievements tests of all of the members of the OECD.
Recent Economic Developments
6. The Mexican economy rapidly recovered from the impact of the global economic
crisis. After a severe contraction in late 2008 and early 2009, resurgence in demand for
Mexican manufactured exports led to a sharp rebound of economic activity. By the end of
2010, output returned to its pre-crisis level, with an upturn in domestic demand sustaining
growth of 5.4 percent for the year and supporting convergence to the country’s potential
output.
7. Strong links between the Mexican and United States manufacturing industry
contributed to a surge in external trade. With almost 80 percent of trade directed to the
U.S., a recovery of economic activity and, in particular, of industrial production in the U.S.
led to a sharp rebound of Mexican exports. Manufactured exports increased by 30 percent in
2010, surpassing their pre-crisis level, and continue to expand at a healthy annual rate of 14
percent in 2011. The rapid expansion of exports led to an increase of Mexico’s market share
in the U.S. to over 12 percent from 10.5 percent prior to the crisis. Recent external
competitiveness gains are the result of moderate wage growth, a relatively weak peso, and
higher global transport costs.
8. The recovery spurred a moderate increase in employment. Though the Mexican
labor market is recovering from the trough, unemployment remains above pre-crisis levels.
The unemployment rate, which reached a record high of 6.4 percent in September 2009, has
remained over 5 percent over the last two years, two percent above the average pre-crisis
level. After net job destruction in 2009, approximately 500,000 formal sector jobs have been
created annually, leaving an equal number of net labor force entrants to look for other
alternatives in self- or informal sector employment. Over the past four years, real wages in the
formal sector have languished, compared to an annual average increase of one percent
previous to the crisis.
9. After more than a decade of rapid growth, outward migration and remittances
have stagnated. Recent population census data show that the number of Mexican migrants in
the U.S. remained stable at 12 million between 2007 and 2010 with no net increase in
migrants, compared to an estimated average annual net migration of 500,000 in the preceding
years. This is likely due to tighter migration controls and the downturn of U.S. economic
activity, in particular in the construction sector. As a result, annual remittance inflows of
US$22.7 billion in 2011 are still 13 percent below their end-2007 peak. The impact of the
slump in remittances in terms of purchasing power, poverty relief, and domestic consumption
was somewhat mitigated by currency depreciation in 2008-2009 and more recently in the
second half of 2011.
10. Credit growth has recovered and is now in line with nominal Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) growth. Consumer and corporate credit have expanded at an annual nominal
rate of about 12 percent. Housing finance has trailed behind with 10 percent annual nominal
growth, partly attributed to the demise of the specialized housing non-bank financial
4
intermediaries (Sociedades Financieras de Objeto Limitado, SOFOLES). Commercial banks
non-performing loan ratio remains at 2.7 percent and is adequately provisioned for.
Provisioning levels (180 percent) are significantly higher than in the rest of the region.
Figure 2: Mexico Selected Macroeconomic Charts
Aggregate demand (2008:II=100) Labor market indicators
Inflation rate (%) International Reserves (US$ billions)
Exchange rate (June 2008=100) External Accounts (US$ billions)
GDPExports
Priv. Cons.
Pub. Exp.
Priv. Inv.
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
08
:II
08
:III
08
:IV
09
:I
09
:II
09
:III
09
:IV
10
:I
10
:II
10
:III
10
:IV
11
:I
11
:II
11
:III
13
13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Unemployment rate (s.a.)
Insured workers (million) RHS
Food
Headline
Core
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
De
c-0
8
Mar
-09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
De
c-0
9
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
De
c-1
0
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
De
c-1
1
6065707580859095
100105110115120125130135140145
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
De
c-0
8
Mar
-09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
De
c-0
9
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
De
c-1
0
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
De
c-1
1
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Jul-
08
Sep
-08
No
v-0
8
Jan
-09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
No
v-0
9
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12 -8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
08
:I
08
:II
08
:III
08
:IV
09
:I
09
:II
09
:III
09
:IV
10
:I
10
:II
10
:III
10
:IV
11
:I
11
:II
11
:III
CAB
FDI
Portfolio inv.
5
11. The authorities are gradually withdrawing the fiscal stimulus to reassure
markets of Mexico’s fiscal sustainability. Fiscal discipline and strong fiscal policy
frameworks, including the establishment of stabilization funds and the acquisition of oil price
hedges, provided the authorities with some space to conduct countercyclical policy during the
height of the crisis without jeopardizing long-term sustainability. Fiscal stimulus in 2009 was
mainly financed by non-recurrent revenue that was no longer available in 2010, when the
authorities initiated a program of fiscal consolidation by increasing taxes and containing
public expenditures. To moderate the withdrawal of fiscal support, a modest budget deficit
was allowed in 2010, 2011, and 2012, with a return to a balanced budget as stipulated in
Mexico’s fiscal responsibility law envisaged for 2013.3
12. Monetary policy remains accommodating after substantial easing in 2009. The
sharp contraction of economic activity in 2009 created a particularly large output gap,
suggesting that the economy may, for the medium-term, expand moderately above its
potential without generating inflation pressures. Consumer price inflation has trended down
for the major part of 2011, and is currently at 3.8 percent within the authorities’ target interval
of 3 plus/minus 1 percent.
13. International reserve accumulation and a new International Monetary Fund
(IMF) Flexible Credit Line (FCL) strengthen Mexico’s insurance against external
shocks. The buildup of international reserves stems from net public sector foreign exchange
receipts, due to elevated oil prices, and the introduction of a rules based mechanism that
enables market participants to sell foreign exchange to the Central Bank. Gross international
reserves now stand at US$142 billion, an increase of US$29 billion over the last twelve
months. A new FCL was contracted with the IMF in January 2011 for a two-year period to an
amount of approximately US$73 billion.
14. Over the past two years, Mexico experienced substantial capital inflows, mainly
directed at the domestic government bond market. Loose global monetary conditions and
inclusion of Mexican local currency government bonds in Citibank’s World Government
Bond Index (WGBI) in October 2010 led to a surge of capital inflows of about US$16 billion
in the last half of 2010 and first half of 2011, respectively. However, increased global risk
aversion has recently put pressure on asset and currency markets. Mexico’s flexible exchange
rate and increased financial cushion (reserves and the FCL) should help mitigate the effect of
a sudden, sharp reversal in capital flows.
15. The Mexican authorities recently adjusted their foreign exchange intervention
mechanism in response to sharply increased market volatility. The higher degree of risk
aversion on the back of the European sovereign debt and banking sector problems has
triggered a sharp depreciation of the peso and increased the volatility of the peso-U.S. dollar
exchange rate. To reduce market volatility, the authorities reintroduced in end-November
2011, a rules-based foreign exchange intervention mechanism that announces the auction of
US$400 million on days when the Mexican peso has depreciated by 2 percent or more
3 The budget balance targeted in the Fiscal Responsibility Law excludes investments in the oil sector amounting
to about 2.0 percent of GDP annually over the past couple of years. A broader deficit measure like the Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (PSBR) does include these outlays, as well as additional adjustments for
concepts such as inflation-indexed debt and financial intermediation by development banks.
6
compared to the previous day. At the same time, the authorities suspended the monthly sale
of dollar put options through which the Central Bank accumulated additional international
reserves. The measure aims at enhancing liquidity conditions in the foreign exchange market
and therefore reducing volatility.
16. Food price inflation and the economic crisis have increased poverty over the past
few years. Total poverty increased from 44.5 percent to 46.2 percent between 2008 and 2010,
according to a new official poverty measure. Approximately a quarter of the poor, 10.4
percent of the total population in 2010, live in extreme poverty. These figures are the result of
a new poverty measure based on a multidimensional concept of poverty. Though no historical
time series of the new poverty measure exist, the previous income-based poverty measure
exhibited a reversal in the declining trend of poverty as of 2008. The increase was largely
attributed to food price increases, whereas the recent increase in poverty levels is mainly due
to the economic crisis and slackness in the labor market.
Macroeconomic Outlook and Debt Sustainability
17. Economic growth has moderated, but is forecast to remain healthy in 2012.
Economic growth has moderated to about 3.8 percent in 2011. Growth in 2012 is projected to
slow to 3.3 percent, and stabilize at 3.5 percent over the medium term (see base case scenario
table 1).4 Despite a slowdown in U.S. growth, external demand will likely remain buoyed by
growth in U.S. industrial production and improved Mexican external competitiveness.
Domestic demand is expected to remain expansionary and driven by labor market
improvements, credit growth, and infrastructure investment. Downside risks to growth,
associated with a U.S. slowdown and the ongoing problems in Europe, remain significant.
18. A lower case growth scenario may materialize if Mexico’s main trading partner
falls back into a recession in the near term (see box 1). Weaker demand for Mexican
exports and a slowdown in investment may lead to a below potential rate of growth in the
short term, 2012, of about 2 percent. Such a low case scenario also includes a return to the
lower bound of Mexico’s medium-term potential output growth range at 3.0 percent and
impacts the Government’s fiscal and debt projections. A greater emphasis on growth-oriented
structural reforms is crucial to improve Mexico’s medium-term growth potential, which is
driven by growth of the labor force and capital accumulation but remains constrained by lack
of any significant productivity improvements.
19. Mexico’s security situation continues to impact growth and pose challenges for
the authorities. The growing violence, in particular in northern Mexico, stems from the
conflict between drug cartels and among cartels and Mexican security services. The domestic
security threat is undermining economic growth and investment, in particular in the areas
most impacted by violent crime. As a result, improving public security remains one of the
Government’s priorities. Increasing resources needed to address the rise in violence could
detract from spending on social needs and public investment.
20. Uncertainty over the global outlook and a more moderate domestic growth
outlook will continue to restrain price pressures. Annual headline consumer price inflation,
4 See also IMF Selected Issues (2011).
7
3.8 percent by the end of 2011, maintains a downward trend, approaching the Bank of
Mexico’s medium-term target. A deceleration in the economic recovery is slowing the closure
of the output gap, suggesting that monetary conditions can remain relatively accommodative.
21. The current account deficit has widened moderately with the upturn in domestic
demand. Mexico’s current account deficit will likely widen to around 0.9 percent of GDP in
2011, and be financed via foreign direct investment (FDI), projected at US$20 billion. Export
growth, projected at approximately 18 percent in 2011, will likely moderate over the medium
term and average approximately 9 percent annually, while the current account deficit may
widen but remain financeable by FDI. Remittances are projected to amount to US$22.7 billion
in 2011 and may increase modestly if the economic environment in the U.S. improves.
22. The Government remains on track with its fiscal consolidation plan. The fiscal
deficit, in terms of the Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (PSBR), is expected to narrow
to 2.9 percent of GDP in 2011 and the Government plans on a further deficit reduction to 2.8
percent in 2012. Stronger oil related revenues are compensating for slightly weaker tax
revenue. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the Government has proposed to remove the caps on the
stabilization funds for 2012.
23. Improvements in Mexico’s debt structure mitigate the impact of shocks on public
finances. The Government’s debt management strategy continues to favor the local debt
market, and use external financing in a complementary manner. Due to ongoing uncertainty
and volatility in international financial markets, Mexico will continue to meet the
Government’s financing needs with the lowest cost and risk combination of internal and
external debt, while strengthening local debt markets and maintaining a diverse access to
credit.
24. A return to a balanced budget as of 2013 would ensure a sustainable public debt
path. The public sector debt-to-GDP ratio increased over the past few years mainly due to
the partial inclusion in 2008 of public sector workers’ pension liabilities in public debt
following the public sector pension reform, the fiscal stimulus program, and sharp drop in
economic activity in 2009. Nevertheless, Mexico maintains a moderate net public debt-to-
GDP ratio at about 37 percent and the Government’s medium term fiscal framework foresees
a 2 percent reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio over the next five years.
25. The main risk to the public debt-to-GDP ratio is the uncertainty surrounding the
GDP growth rate. The Government’s medium term fiscal projections show a declining debt-
to-GDP path based on a diminishing PSBR from 2.3 percent of GDP in 2013 to 2.0 percent in
2017 and annual economic growth of 3.9 percent. Net debt-to-GDP diminishes under these
assumptions from 36.3 percent in 2013 to 34.6 percent in 2017. The base case scenario
presented in Table 1 projects annual medium term growth of 3.5 percent, which maintains a
downward debt-to-GDP path towards a ratio of 35.4 percent by 2017, whereas a low case
scenario of 3 percent annual growth would roughly stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio over the
medium term.
26. Despite significant foreign ownership, Mexico’s financial sector remains
relatively insulated from problems in Europe. Strong capitalization levels and prudential
policies implemented over the last few years have strengthened the sector’s vulnerability to
8
shocks. Though foreign ownership is significant in the banking sector and ring-fencing
measures are difficult to implement, recent policies including tighter limits on dividend
distribution and related-party lending should limit contagion from the European banking
sector. However, a sovereign default or ongoing instability in European debt markets would
reinforce global risk aversion, intensify stock market volatility, heighten capital outflows and
tighten domestic credit growth. Furthermore, Mexican institutional investors (pension,
mutual, and insurance funds) could experience asset losses, which could in turn generate
domestic market instability.
27. Notwithstanding the significant challenges posed by the current global economic
climate, Mexico’s macroeconomic policy framework is considered adequate for the
purposes of the proposed Development Policy Loan.
9
Box 1: Weakening Global Growth Prospects and Increased Financial Volatility:
Impacts on Mexico
Extraordinary downward adjustments in the prospects for global economic activity and
extremely high global financial market volatility have been observed over the past few
months. Since end-July 2011, global markets have suffered major financial turbulence and
a flight from risky assets, related to weak economic activity and fiscal problems in the U.S.,
the sovereign debt crisis in several European countries and associated weakness in the
European banking system. The perceived lack of political resolve in both regions
significantly increases downside risks to the world economy.
Weakening growth prospects in advanced economies, in particular in the U.S., and global
financial market volatility led to rapid adjustment in Mexico’s growth prospects and
currency valuation. Private sector analysts’ average growth estimates (according to the
monthly survey of private analysts carried by the Banco de Mexico) for 2011 and 2012 fell
from 4.2 and 4.1 percent respectively to 3.8 and 3.4 percent within a period of two months
(July-September). The deteriorating outlook and flight to quality led to a depreciation of the
peso by 16 percent between end-July and beginning December, reversing the gradual
appreciation trend that followed the currency collapse during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
Rapidly deteriorating domestic growth prospects are due to the strong links between
Mexican industry and the U.S. economy, the market for almost 80 percent of Mexican
manufactured exports. Weakening external demand also has an important impact on the
service sector as the share of services directly linked to manufacturing in Mexico is high by
international standards (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2011).
An external demand shock generated by the U.S. falling back into recession would create a
substantial short-term impact on economic growth in Mexico. Even in the case of a
prolonged weakness in the U.S., strong macroeconomic policy fundamentals should favor a
recovery of the Mexican economy and a return to the medium-term potential output rate of
growth.
An abrupt decline in commodity prices and of oil in particular, would have a negative
impact on economic activity and the trade balance, though lower oil production has reduced
net oil exports to less than 1 percent of GDP, thereby significantly diminishing the terms of
trade effect of oil price fluctuations. In terms of public finances, a reduction of the oil price
by US$10 per barrel reduces public sector revenue by 0.3 percent of GDP.
The recent sharp currency depreciation suggests a reversal in capital flows. In the year prior
to the current instability (July 2010-June 2011), investment by foreign residents in peso-
denominated government bonds amounted to US$32 billion, while international reserves
increased by US$28 billion. The policy response to what has been perceived as a disorderly
depreciation and excess volatility of the peso dollar exchange rate has been to intervene in
the foreign exchange market through a rules based mechanism that has been applied earlier
with success (see paragraph 15). The weaker peso has led to some easing of monetary
conditions, however concerns about a pass-through to domestic prices are relatively muted
in the current environment of low inflation and weakening economic activity.
10
Table 1: Main Macroeconomic Indicators (2007-2014), Base Case
Est. Projection
Indicator 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National Accounts
annual real percent change, unless
noted
Real GDP 3.3% 1.2% -6.1% 5.4% 3.8% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5%
Consumption 3.9% 1.6% -5.7% 4.7% 4.2% 3.2% 3.7% 3.4%
Gross Domestic Investment 3.3% 3.0%
-
15.9% 6.8% 6.7% 4.9% 4.8% 4.9%
Gross Domestic Investment ( % of GDP)
26.5
%
26.9
% 23.5%
25.0
%
25.7
%
25.9
%
25.9
%
26.2
%
External Accounts in US$ billions, unless noted
Current Account Balance -8.9 -16.3 -6.4 -5.6 -10.2 -15.2 -18.7 -19.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
-
0.9%
-
1.5% -0.7%
-
0.5%
-
0.9%
-
1.4%
-
1.5%
-
1.5%
Trade Balance -10.1 -17.3 -4.7 -3.0 -3.1 -6.2 -8.3 -9.2
Merchandise Exports Current 271.9 291.3 229.7 298.5 353.7 384.9 416.5 444.8
Merchandise Exports Current (annual growth) 8.8% 7.2%
-21.2%
29.9%
18.5% 8.8% 8.2% 6.8%
Oil Exports 43.0 50.6 30.8 41.7 55.0 52.7 51.4 49.7
Non Oil Exports 228.9 240.7 198.9 256.8 298.7 332.2 365.0 395.1
Merchandise Imports Current 281.9 308.6 234.4 301.5 356.8 391.1 424.7 454.0
Merchandise Imports Current
(annual growth)
10.1
% 9.5%
-
24.0%
28.6
%
18.3
% 9.6% 8.6% 6.9%
Transfers, net 26.4 25.5 21.5 21.5 22.7 24.4 25.6 26.9
Factor and non factor services , net -25.2 -24.5 -23.2 -24.1 -29.8 -33.4 -36.1 -37.2
Direct Investment 29.7 26.3 15.3 18.7 19.0 20.5 21.3 22.2
Portfolio Investment 7.3 2.4 7.6 23.8 28.0 18.0 15.0 15.0
Gross Reserves 87.2 95.3 99.9 120.6 142.5 149.3 156.3 163.3
Public Sector
in percent of GDP, unless
noted
Total Revenues
22.0
%
23.5
% 23.7%
22.7
%
21.7
%
21.6
%
21.3
%
21.2
%
Oil Revenues 7.8% 8.7% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.4% 7.3%
Non Oil Revenues
14.2
%
14.8
% 16.4%
15.3
%
14.3
%
14.1
%
13.9
%
13.9
%
Tax 9.3% 9.9% 9.5%
10.1
% 9.9% 9.8% 9.7% 9.7%
Non tax 1.4% 1.2% 3.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Public Enterprises 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
Public Expenditure (%)
23.0
%
25.1
% 26.3%
26.1
%
24.6
%
24.4
%
23.6
%
23.4
%
Current Expenditure
18.7
%
19.7
% 21.2%
21.1
%
20.0
%
20.3
%
19.8
%
19.6
%
Capital Expenditure 4.3% 5.4% 5.1% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8%
PSBR Balance (% GDP)
-
1.0%
-
1.6% -2.6%
-
3.5%
-
2.9%
-
2.8%
-
2.3%
-
2.2%
Net Public Sector Debt (% GDP)
29.3
%
33.4
% 36.9%
36.8
%
36.7
%
36.7
%
36.7
%
36.4
%
Prices
Inflation (e.o.p.) (%) 3.8% 6.5% 3.6% 4.4% 3.8% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0%
Nominal Exchange Rate (average
MX$/US$) 10.9 11.1 13.5 12.6 12.4 13.5 13.0 13.2
Oil Price (US$ per barrel) 61.6 84.4 57.4 72.3 100 97.7 95.5 92.2
Source: INEGI, Banco de Mexico, SHCP, and World Bank estimates.
11
III. SECTOR CONTEXT AND THE GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAM
The Upper Secondary Education Sector
28. In Mexico, upper secondary education (Educación Media Superior, EMS) is
separate from both the basic education sector and higher education. Students typically
enter EMS at age 15 after having finished the basic education cycle (nine years of primary
and lower secondary school). Approximately 80 percent of the students in EMS are between
15 and 17 years old. There are 4.05 million students in this level, equivalent to 12 percent of
the whole Mexican Education System population.
29. EMS in Mexico is highly diverse and fragmented. EMS is offered by four different
types of providers: a) federal, b) state, c) publicly-financed autonomous universities, and d)
private (with authorization from a public system, typically an autonomous university). These
providers (called ―sistemas‖) are divided into different systems (called ―sub-sistemas‖), which
have the authority to grant diplomas. There are a total of 200 to 300 systems, depending on
how they are counted. The federal government serves 26 percent of the EMS student
population through four major systems, typically in cooperation with the states. Each of the
31 states operates at least one system, accounting for 43.8 percent of enrollment. In addition,
27 autonomous universities operate upper secondary education systems that account for 12.5
percent of enrollment. There is no national teacher union for EMS and most systems have at
least one union. The course of study ranges from two to five years, although around 90
percent of students are in a three-year program.
30. EMS offers three types of degree programs, focused on academic and work-
related schools. These programs are:
General Upper Secondary was founded in the 19th century to prepare students for
higher education. Most of the autonomous universities and private providers offer this
type of education exclusively and it is also offered by both the state and federal
governments. Around 60 percent of students are in this type of program.
Technological Upper Secondary emerged in the 1930s to prepare students as
technicians in industry, fishing, agriculture, and forestry, as well as for higher
education. It is offered primarily by the federal and state systems, covering around 30
percent of students.
Technical Professional Upper Secondary was created in the 1970s and consists of
technical and vocational training in modern urban sectors (for example, tourism,
systems, accounting, health, and electronics). While graduates are expected to enter
the labor market, students can also validate their studies to enter tertiary education.
The Colegio Nacional de Educación Profesional Técnica (CONALEP), a mixed
federal-state system, is the primary provider, with about 10 percent of students.
31. Both technological and technical professional education are organized around different
work-related fields, each with a different curricula and set of graduation standards.
32. While enrollment rates in EMS are high, graduation rates remain low. At present,
most students successfully complete basic education and an estimated 90 percent of lower
secondary students continue to EMS. Those that don’t successfully transition are
disproportionately from the lowest quintile. However, despite overall high enrollment, the
12
dropout rate at the EMS level is high, as is shown in Figure 3. Only about 60 percent of
students who enroll in EMS graduate from a complete EMS program. In 2006, according to
the National Education Evaluation Institution (Instituto Nacional para la Evaluación de la
Educación, INEE), 21 percent of youth between 15 and 17 years old were neither working nor
studying, a group known as the NiNis, which has become a concern to policy makers that
focus on crime and social disorder. EMS is a major bottleneck in the education system that is
limiting the number of skilled workers available to the Mexican economy.
Figure 3: Enrollment Rate by Grade, Basic and Upper Secondary Education
33. Students in EMS have traditionally faced several key challenges: (i) low
flexibility; (ii) poor quality and relevance; and (iii) high opportunity cost.5
34. Low flexibility. Prior to the introduction of the Integral Upper Secondary Education
Reform (Reforma Integral de la Educación Media Superior, RIEMS), there was no
overarching framework for EMS. Although the focus of many programs and systems were
similar, each program and system had its own approach and curriculum which were often
incompatible. Therefore in practice, there was little possibility for students to transfer among
systems without starting over. Even changing programs within the same system was often
complicated. This lack of flexibility contributes to the inefficiency of EMS, resulting in a high
level of school dropout since it requires students to stay in programs that are sometimes
neither interesting nor appropriate for them.
5 SEDESOL (2008) ―Oportunidades: Un Programa de Resultados‖: Encuesta Nacional de la Juventud (2005);
Casauban, Marcelo, Mario Carrillo and José Cerón (2009) ―La Política de Desarrollo a Favor de la Educación:
El Caso del Programa Prepa Si,‖ (Galilei-Universidad de Puebla).
13
35. Poor quality and relevance. There is widespread concern that EMS does not
systematically produce graduates that are well prepared for further studies or for the labor
market. With no overall body evaluating and accrediting schools against common standards,
virtually all schools that offer EMS have relied on disarticulated curricula that have usually
been teacher-centered, out-of-date, theoretical, and focused on memorization. While 70
percent of EMS teachers are university graduates, there is little uniformity in their training
and few have received any formal training in pedagogy. As a result, student achievement has
been low; for example, in 2011, 75 percent of students had scores at the insufficient or basic
level in mathematics on ENLACE.6 These trends are also confirmed by the international
assessment (Program for International Student Assessments, PISA) which ranks Mexico
among the lowest performing OECD countries.7 Students’ lack of interest in EMS due to their
concerns about its quality is estimated to account for almost 42 percent of the dropout rate.
The unemployment rate is high for recent graduates, which suggests that EMS has not been
responsive to labor market needs.
36. High opportunity cost. An important reason for dropping out of EMS is the foregone
income for the duration of studies at this level. EMS students are usually between 15 and 18
years old, and having completed basic education, are considered capable of working to
support themselves and their families. Two factors contribute to this phenomenon. First,
school dropouts (and their families) tend to underestimate the returns to EMS. Second, not all
poor students qualify for income support programs like Oportunidades, and must therefore
quit school to work in poorly paid jobs that require low skills, often in the informal sector. In
addition, there are often significant direct costs of attending EMS. While all public providers
are nominally free, many charge significantly for registration and materials. Consequently,
while the overall transition rate to EMS from lower secondary education was about 90 percent
in 2008, it was only 57 percent for the lowest quintile of the population. Dropout rates in EMS
are also highest among students in the lowest quintile, with only 47 percent completing EMS.
The Upper Secondary Education Reform
37. To improve the efficiency and the responsiveness to the labor market of EMS, the
Government introduced the RIEMS in 2007. The reform establishes a National Secondary
Education System (Sistema Nacional de Bachillerato, SNB) that brings coherence to EMS
among the four different providers (federal, state, autonomous university, and private). Figure
4 shows the main elements of the reform: a) a Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC), which
moves teaching away from the memorization of facts; b) Coordination and Regulation, which
sets up common bodies to guide a diverse EMS system; c) Certification, which acknowledges
the adoption of the reform by systems, schools, and students; d) New Tools and Institutions
that support capacity building and monitoring and evaluation; and e) Mentoring and Student
Welfare, aimed at ensuring equity.8
6 National Evaluation of Academic Achievement in Schools (Evaluación Nacional del Logro Académico en
Centros Escolares) 7 In 2009, Mexico ranked 34
th out of 34 OECD countries that participated.
8 The 2007 Accord number 442 is the cornerstone of RIEMS. There have been several other Accords. The most
important of these are Accords numbers 444 (common curriculum framework), 445 (educational options), 447
(teacher profile), 449 (school director profile), 480 (entry into SNB), 484 (governing committee for the reform), 486 (student competencies), and 488 (amendments). These accords can be found at: http://www.dof.gob.mx/. A
number of parallel programs frame the ―Mentoring and Student Welfare‖ element of RIEMS.
14
Figure 4: Main Elements of the Upper Secondary Reform
Competency-Based Curriculum
38. Central to the reform is the creation of the SNB, which establishes a clear set of
minimum standards for EMS programs to facilitate student movement across different
systems. By establishing a common system for all students it will be easier for students to
receive academic credit for their studies when they change their area of specialization or
move from one location to another. Standardizing the programs in EMS in this way also
makes it easier for employers to understand the skills that graduates have.
39. The reform promotes the idea that students should focus on mastering complex
mental processes to adapt knowledge, skills, and behaviors to different contexts rather
than just memorizing facts. The CBC is based on the EMS graduate student profile, which
standardizes the knowledge, skills and behaviors of graduates from the EMS using
competencies.9 The reform creates three broad types of competencies for EMS students:
behavioral skills for life and work known as Generic Competencies (Competencias
Genéricas); knowledge and skills by academic subjects known as Subject Area Competencies
(Competencias Disciplinares), and professional and technical skills known as Professional
Competencies (Competencias Profesionales). Table 2 explains the competency approach in
greater detail.
9 Competencies are usually defined as learning objectives described in terms of tasks. This differs from the
traditional approach that focuses on learning subject-specific content and facts.
15
40. The CBC is composed of two areas: (i) the Common Curriculum Framework
(Marco Curricular Común, MCC); and (ii) the Specialized Tracks. The MCC is
compulsory for all EMS students and is comprised of Generic and basic Subject Area
competencies that all students should master. The Specialized Tracks vary according to the
system and program of study that each student chooses. Students choosing programs that lead
to university studies (such as the General Upper Secondary track) will normally undertake a
wide range of extended Subject Area Competencies. In contrast, students opting for programs
that focus on a more immediate transition to the labor market (such as the Technical
Professional Upper Secondary track) will take more basic and extended Professional
Competencies in the technical areas they choose. The private sector and employer groups
have played an active role in designing and implementing technical programs. This contact
with the ―real world‖ should better prepare graduates for the transition to the labor market
upon graduation. It is expected that the increased relevance of the CBC would address a major
concern for many EMS students and help reduce the dropout rate.
Table 2: Mexico’s Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC)
Competencies Description Area
Generic Common to all EMS graduates. They are key competencies because of their importance and diverse lifelong applications. They can be applied to personal, social, academic and work contexts
and are relevant to all academic disciplines. They focus on: building confidence and personal criteria; art appreciation and interpretation; living a healthy life; communicating effectively; developing critical thinking and problem solving; strengthening team work; and civic and ethical participation in society.
Common Curricular Framework
(Marco Curricular
Común, MCC)
Subject Area Basic Common to all EMS graduates. They form the academic basis that every EMS student needs to acquire in subject areas (mathematics, experimental sciences, humanities and social sciences, and language).
Extended Not common to all EMS graduates. They reinforce and extend what is learned in the basic Subject Area Competencies with the goal of preparing those students that will continue into
university.
Specialized Tracks Professional Basic Not common to all EMS graduates. They form the
technical basis for programs leading to technical qualifications.
Extended Not common to all EMS graduates. They further prepare EMS students to acquire a technical qualification in concrete apprenticeships/ professions so that they can integrate straight into the labor market.
Source: Adapted from Secretaría de Educación Pública, Diario Oficial-Octubre 2009, Acuerdo 444 por el que
se establecen las competencias que constituyen el Marco Curricular Común del Sistema Nacional de
Bachillerato.
16
Coordination and regulation
41. RIEMS is led by a multi-stakeholder body, the National Council of Education
Authorities in EMS (Consejo Nacional de Autoridades Educativas, Capítulo Educación
Media Superior, CONAEDU-EMS). Established in 2007, CONAEDU-EMS is presided by
the Sub-Secretary of EMS and representatives from the 31 states, along with observers from
the National University Association (Asociación Nacional de Universidades e Instituciones de
Educación Superior, ANUIES) and the federal, state, university, and private EMS systems. It
meets monthly to discuss technical and political aspects of the reform. All decisions in this
group are made by consensus or majority vote, if necessary. CONAEDU-EMS has organized
numerous regional events to bring together federal and state officials with experts, teachers,
the private sector, and school directors. Under its mandate, CONAEDU-EMS has the
responsibility for setting up guidelines to permit students to transfer from one system to
another and consolidating technical programs, among others.
New Tools and Institutions
42. Led by the Sub Secretariat of Upper Secondary Education (Sub-Secretaría de
Educación Media Superior, SEMS), the Ministry of Public Education (Secretaría de
Educación Pública, SEP) has created a number of new institutions and designed new tools to
prepare actors in the sector for the changes brought about by the reform. These include the
new teacher training system, the competitive selection of school directors, and the student
assessment system.
43. The reform requires that teachers change their teaching approach to be able to
deliver the CBC successfully. To introduce the new concepts and prepare teachers in the new
teaching approaches, the Government established the In-Service Teacher Training Program
for EMS (Programa de Formación Docente de Educación Media Superior, PROFORDEMS)
in 2008, the first national training system for EMS teachers. PROFORDEMS is a
collaboration between SEMS, the National Pedagogical University (Universidad Nacional
Pedagógica, UPN) and ANUIES, with the support of several autonomous public universities.
All PROFORDEMS programs are delivered through a combination of face-to-face and
distance learning. PROFORDEMS is free for all public teachers with formal contracts that are
employed at least half time. The program also offers further learning opportunities for
teachers such as the Diploma and the Specialization in Teaching Competencies for EMS.10
44. The reform promotes the competitive selection of school directors, a first for
public schools in Mexico. Starting in 2007 as a pilot program, the Federal Government began
to select school directors through a competitive process to encourage accountability at the
school level. A selection committee evaluates the candidate’s proposed work plan,
qualifications, and experience. As part of the effort to professionalize school directors,
PROFORDEMS established the School Director Capacity Building Program for EMS
(Programa de Formación de Directores para Educación Media Superior, PROFORDIR).
PROFORDIR helps to prepare school directors for the changes that accompany the reform
and to support teachers as they develop new techniques for delivering the CBC.
10
Diplomado en Competencias Docentes en el Nivel Medio Superior and Especialidad en Competencias
Docentes para la Educacion Media Superior.
17
45. RIEMS promotes a new national student assessment system. The system consists
of the expansion of two exams applied in basic education to EMS, ENLACE11
and
EXCALE.12
The first (ENLACE) is a compulsory exam taken in the last year of a student’s
EMS program. It is administered by each system with the guidance and supervision of the
SEP. It serves as a tool for students, families, and schools to monitor individual and school
progress. The results are presented in an understandable format to parents and schools, and
are also available online. The second exam (EXCALE) is only applied to a sample of EMS
students, at a level representative of the major providers (federal, state, autonomous
university, and private). Given that it is a sample-based evaluation, it uses different types of
questions beyond multiple choice to provide a more comprehensive picture of the quality of
instruction of EMS students. In addition, it is applied by INEE13
in a widely controlled
environment providing high confidence in its results. It specifically measures written
expression and citizenship competencies, linked to the Generic Competencies.
46. Results of the first round of EXCALE, administered between March and May of
2010, were published in November of 2011. Students are classified in four categories,
ranging from level 1 to 4. For language expression, the majority of students (57 percent)
scored in the lowest category (level 1), which implies that, while they are able to draft
informational briefs and short summaries, they are unable to formulate written arguments in
their texts. Only 5 percent scored in the highest category, whereby students are able to
formulate complete arguments, including presenting a topic, forming and defending a thesis,
and persuasively presenting conclusions, in written form.
Certification
47. RIEMS introduces two certification processes as part of the reform: one for
schools and one for students. First, the reform consists of an accreditation process of
systems and schools, under the authority of the National Council for the Assessment in EMS
(Consejo para la Evaluación de la Educación Media Superior, COPEEMS), an independent
non-profit agency mainly responsible for accrediting schools. To perform this function,
COPEEMS has been granted the authority to certify independent evaluators who conduct the
onsite review of schools, together with a COPEEMS representative. This team then prepares a
detailed report working from observation and document review. Based on the report, a formal
evaluation statement (dictamen de evaluación) is issued to the school. Second, the reform
also introduces a single national certificate (Certificado Nacional de Bachillerato) for all
EMS graduates from participating schools. This certificate indicates that graduates have
acquired the required competencies, as a guarantee of quality to employers.
11
National Evaluation of Academic Achievement in Schools (Evaluación Nacional de Logro Académico en
Centros Escolares, ENLACE), introduced for basic education in 2006. 12
Exam for Education Quality and Academic Achievement (Exámenes para la Calidad y el Logro Educativo,
EXCALE), introduced for basic education in 2005. These elements were all developed after extensive research
by SEP and are generally high quality. 13
INEE is independent from SEP.
18
Mentoring and Student Welfare
48. As part of RIEMS, SEMS launched SIGUELE, an overarching program to
support students at risk. SIGUELE represents a consolidation of many pre-existing
programs, hoping to increase the effectiveness of programs through better coordination, and
to ensure that the right program reaches students most in need. The program features 6
dimensions: i) an early warning system for students at risk of dropping out (Sistema de Alerta
Temprana, SIAT); ii) a national academic tutoring system; iii) career counseling; iv) a youth
development program (CONSTRUYE-T); v) scholarship programs; and vi) a reading
program.
49. SIGUELE’s key feature is the Early Warning System (SIAT) and corresponding
response programs. The system consists of a database that flags students that are at risk of
dropping out based on a number of factors such as attendance and academic achievement. The
program then supports complementary efforts to help at-risk students remain in school,
beginning with mentoring, which can include tutoring and career counseling. The program
supports students in academic and non-academic areas of their life.
50. The National Academic Tutoring System (Sistema Nacional de Tutoría
Académica, SINATA) is a mentoring program initially established in federal schools. It
provides students with one-on-one and group counseling, which has largely been missing in
public schools. Teachers are trained to address both academic and non-academic issues that
students commonly face.
51. SIGUELE also includes a national youth development program – CONSTRUYE-
T – focusing on reducing risky behavior of upper secondary students. The current wave
of crime and violence directly affects EMS and the welfare of youth, and CONSTRUYE-T,
established in partnership between SEMS, UNESCO, UNDP, and UNICEF, helps students
deal with social issues by bringing the school community together to diagnose and prioritize
challenges that youth face in their specific contexts. It then identifies concrete actions (usually
afterschool activities) to address those issues. CONSTRUYE-T operates in all federal schools
and is expanding to other systems.
52. The EMS scholarship program, which consolidated a large number of
uncoordinated federal scholarship programs, represents the financial support to youth
under SIGUELE. The consolidation has greatly reduced the transaction cost as it eliminates
the need for students to apply for multiple scholarships, and uses an internet portal that
eliminates the need for paper documentation. It complements the Oportunidades program14
by
targeting poor students who do not qualify, primarily those in urban areas. SEMS and
Oportunidades are working together and sharing data to eliminate double coverage.
Participatory Process
53. RIEMS was developed after a detailed participatory process. Participation in the
reform is voluntary and the reform was built upon consensus among the key stakeholders in
14
Oportunidades is Mexico’s largest social assistance program and is one of the world’s first conditional cash
transfer program. Oportunidades is largely a rural program, where 70 percent of its beneficiaries live. Since its creation in 1997, it saw its coverage increase from 300,000 rural households to 5 million households, or
approximately 25 percent of the country’s total population and 60 percent of poorest households.
19
the sector. Under the existing education law, the Federal Government only has authority over
its own EMS schools. Thus, SEMS has worked with other systems to develop and implement
RIEMS and ensure its widespread acceptance. To this end, it created CONAEDU-EMS as the
main policy-making body that brings together actors across the sector to design and
implement policy.
54. The reform was built on consultation and participation at all levels. At the highest
level, SEMS worked closely with a wide range of actors on the design and implementation of
the reform. Most key decisions were made collectively by CONAEDU-EMS, either by
consensus or in some cases by majority vote. The reform actively sought the opinions and
experiences of different stakeholders.15
At a lower level, there has been extensive consultation
with stakeholders in the design of programs, curriculum, and other reform initiatives. Joint
technical committees, made up of EMS teachers, academic specialists, and private sector
specialists, worked to develop technical programs. SEMS was also open to opinions of the
academic community and the public on other elements of the reforms. For example, a group
of philosophers presented SEMS with recommendations to adjust the academic curriculum.
As a response, the Government agreed to modify the Subject Area Competencies to include
philosophy, ethics, logic, and aesthetics.16
These conversations continue as the group
continues its dialogue with education authorities.17
55. As a result of the careful process of reaching consensus, coverage of RIEMS is
nearly complete. All but one system (the autonomous system operated by Universidad
Nacional Autónoma de México, UNAM18
) have joined the reform and participate in the
reform’s activities. The reform has generally been well accepted across the political
spectrum—the leading states in implementing the reform all have different governing
coalitions. A number of state elections show that support for the reform has continued despite
the change in state governments.
56. An extensive communication strategy has been central to RIEMS. The target
group of RIEMS long-term communication campaign is the school community (school
directors, teachers, students, and parents) and education officials, using a mix of traditional
media, and computer and internet-based tools, workshops, and print material. Attention has
also been paid to the dissemination of the reform’s operation and on providing vast
information to the school community on how to improve learning by incorporating RIEMS
initiatives into their daily practices. The dissemination strategy also takes into account the
communication of early results of the reform.
57. In recognition of its importance, Mexico is in the process of guaranteeing
universal EMS. Mexico offers universal education at the basic education level, which has led
to very high enrollment rates in primary and lower secondary education. Congress has passed
a resolution that is now being considered by the 31 states for amending the Constitution to
15
This policy is outlined in Acuerdo 442 which seeks the opinions, ideas, and previous experiences of education
authorities and upper secondary providers to design the reform. 16
This policy is outlined in the Acuerdo 488 which modifies aspects of Acuerdo 442, 444 and 447. 17
This process is outlined in the webpage of the Observatorio Filosofico Mexicano (www.ofmx.com.mx), a non-
governmental group formed to observe the teaching of philosophy across the country. 18
UNAM is considered to have the highest quality of any public EMS system and in many ways serves as a
model of the reform. It has chosen not to join the reform as it sees few benefits for the institution or its students.
20
ensure the same treatment at the Upper Secondary level. Several states throughout Mexico
have already begun the process to introduce universal EMS.
Public Expenditures on Upper Secondary Education
58. Mexico is making a significant investment in education. Current estimates show
that Mexico has invested between 4.9 and 5.3 percent of its GDP in public education at all
levels during the past five years. This is at the higher end of the range seen in other countries
in the Latin American and Caribbean Region. During the recent economic crisis, Mexico was
careful to maintain the operational budget for education at all levels.
59. Public spending on EMS has increased during the period of the reform. The
period between 2007 and 2010 saw a significant economic slowdown, however, public
spending on EMS increased in real terms from MX$55.9 billion (US$5.3 billion) in 2007 to
MX$67.0 billion (US$6.3 billion) in 2010, an increase of 20 percent. During this period, the
federal government provided 64 percent of total financing both directly through its own sub-
systems and indirectly through subsidies to other systems. Table 3 summarizes the change in
spending between 2007 and 2009.
Table 3: Estimated Public Expenditure on EMS in Mexico
(millions, real 2006 pesos)
Education Expenditure Financing
Source Budget, 2007 Budget, 2010
Support to the Reform Federal 1,276.9 2,520.2
Support for Infrastructure Federal 491.3 1,068.9
Federal Systems Federal 16,762.5 18,106.7
State Systems Federal 9,370.2 11,872.3
State 17,742.3 21,742.9
Federal Autonomous Universities Federal 2,264.4 3,263.0
State Autonomous Universities Federal 5,722.1 6,021.8
State 2,272.1 2,390.8
Total
55,901.9 66,986.6
Source: Bank Staff estimates, based on federal and state budget data and estimates
60. Spending per capita has increased during the period of the reform. Even with a
growth in public enrollment of around 10 percent, spending per capita increased by around
8.6 percent (including central spending associated with the reform). Total public spending per
capita increased from MX$18,900 (US$1,795) in 2007 to MX$19,401 (US$1,827) in 2010
(expressed in 2006 pesos). Spending is relatively equal across systems, with some systems as
outliers. The federal autonomous university systems (primarily UNAM) have a higher budget
per capita. Table 4 summarizes the spending per capita per provider in 2010, including the
percent of enrollment per provider.
21
Table 4: Estimated Per Capita Public Expenditure on EMS in Mexico (real 2006 pesos)
Education
Providers
Spending per Capita
in 2010, MX$
Percentage of public
Enrollment
Federal Systems 18,047 31%
State Systems 19,137 54%
Federal University Systems 32,894 3%
State University System 20,588 13%
Total 19,401 100%
61. The public sector has spent significant resources to promote the reform.
Calculating the cost of the reform is a challenge since there is no single budget allocation for
EMS. However, it is possible to calculate the direct cost of the reform by looking at the
federal government’s programs to support the reform. In addition, the growth in per capita
spending by a provider may be a good proxy for the indirect costs of the reform. Figure 5
presents an estimate of the marginal cost of the reform since 2007, including the direct federal
costs and the estimated additional spending by the federal and state governments on EMS,
taking into account the increase in enrollment. Based on these estimates, between 2007 and
2010, the reform cost the public sector MX$19.2 billion (real 2006 pesos), the equivalent of
US$1.8 billion.
Figure 5: Direct and Indirect Expenditure on the Reform (2006 Million MX$)
62. The long term costs of the reform are relatively small. Using current data and
trends on student growth and the cost of education, it is possible to project the cumulative
total cost into the future. Starting from 2007 until 2040, the reform is expected to have a total
cost of around US$44.4 billion (in real US dollars). Using a discount rate of 8 percent, this
represents US$12.1 billion, around 0.1 percent of the discounted GDP in the same period.19
Over the life of the reform, the direct cost of the reform is estimated to be around 25 percent
19
This assumes that the reform has no impact on the gross domestic product, which is highly unlikely.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2007 2008 2009 2010
Direct Cost of the Reform Additional Federal Spending Additional State Spending
22
of the total cost, the increase in spending of quality 54 percent, and the increase in enrollment
21 percent.
IV. BANK SUPPORT TO THE GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAM
Link to CPS
63. The current Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) with Mexico was discussed by
the Board in April 2008, and it proposed a flexible program of financial and knowledge
services. A key principle established in the CPS is that the Bank’s program should be closely
aligned to the Government’s own development strategy. One priority area for investment and
advisory activities under the current CPS includes improving the quality of education.20
This
proposed operation fits the pillars of Improving Competitiveness and Promoting Social
Inclusion and Reducing Poverty.
Collaboration with the IMF and other Donors
64. World Bank and IMF staff meet on a regular basis to exchange views on the
macroeconomic situation and prospects for Mexico. These consultations occur at least
quarterly and involve exchange of documents and recent reports conducted by the respective
teams. Work has focused on short term economic issues and on structural issues, such as the
financial sector, labor market reform, and Mexico’s competitiveness.
65. The Bank has also collaborated with the Inter-American Development Bank
(IDB) during loan preparation. The IDB has actively supported the EMS reform. On the
technical side, the Bank and IDB jointly provided support to SEMS to design and implement
its evaluation program. Likewise, the IDB has provided support through its Competencies
Capacity Program for Human Resources Project (Programa de Formación de Recursos
Humanos en Competencias, PROFORHCOM), which aims to improve the links between
EMS and the productive sector. The IDB is also supporting a number of regional studies that
focus on understanding incentives at the upper secondary level in Mexico and improving the
use of technology at the same level.
Relationship with other Bank Operations
66. The Bank has several ongoing and planned operations in the education sector .
Bank operations in the education sector in Mexico are organized around a common
business plan which integrates the lending program with knowledge products. The Bank
is active in all major areas of the education sector through a combination of financial and
knowledge services. At the basic education level, Bank support includes the ongoing School
Based Management Project (P115347, Loan 7948-MX, US$220 million), the second phase in
an education APL. The Project aims at improving the quality of education by promoting
increased school autonomy and social participation. The Compensatory Education Project
(P101369, Loan 7859-MX, US$100 million) has the goal of improving education quality,
efficiency and learning of children in the poorest municipalities. Many of the concepts for
20
A CPS Progress Report was discussed by the Board on March 25, 2010 and emphasized the need for
continued support for Mexico to recover from the crisis through a combination of investment loans and DPLs.
23
school-based management and operating schools in the rural setting are relevant for EMS. At
the higher education level, the Tertiary Education Student Assistance Project APL I
(P085593, Loans 7346-MX and 7349-MX, US$171 million) seeks to foster the sustainable
and equitable expansion of tertiary education through providing financial assistance to
qualifying students. The Bank is working on a number of technical issues, including education
quality, indigenous education, and strengthening assessment systems. The Bank has also
collaborated on a number of impact evaluation studies. The proposed DPL is the only Bank
operation that directly addresses RIEMS and EMS.
67. The Bank has also supported other human development programs in Mexico.
One of the most important human development initiatives of the Mexican government is the
comprehensive conditional cash transfer program, Oportunidades, which provides financial
support to poor families that participate in basic social programs for children (including
EMS). The Support to Oportunidades Project (P115067, Loans 7708-MX 7968-MX, for a
total of US$1,757 million), approved in early 2009, co-financed the Oportunidades program.
During the 2010-2011 school year, approximately 894,000 students in EMS received support
from the program conditional on school attendance.
Lessons Learned
68. The design of the proposed operation takes into account the lessons learned from
the previous Development Policy Lending Retrospective21
and the Bank’s work in other
middle-income countries. Box 2 summarizes how the preparation of the MUSE series took
into the principals outlined in the DPL Retrospective.
69. International evidence suggests that education reform is a long and complicated
process. Education is typically one of the biggest items in the public budget and has one of
the largest public payrolls. Given the importance of the sector for the economy, the
government’s budget, and the large number of employees and stakeholders, reform can be
slow, frustrating, and contested. In particular, improving quality (quality-oriented education
reforms) may involve changing complex relationships and changes may be controversial.
Despite these challenges, many middle- and high-income countries have been able to
introduce reforms that have transformed their education system.
70. Education reform requires a long-term commitment. An education reform consists
of numerous discrete steps and the whole process typically takes many years. This is due to
the time necessary to analyze the education sector, develop alternatives based on evidence,
and create alliances. There is no single path to success in the education sector and each
country must develop a strategy based on an understanding of the sector’s supply and demand
constraints and its institutional structure, as well as the underlying economic and political
conditions.
21
2009 Development Policy Lending Retrospective, August 2009.
24
Box 2: DPL Good Practices and the MUSE DPL Series
Principle 1 – Reinforce ownership. The DPL series is built around an extensive reform of the
upper secondary system that was developed by stakeholders through a participatory process. This process follows an analysis and a review of international best practices. The Bank’s participation has provided external validation and technical support to the ongoing process. The second operation in the DPL series responds to the Government’s priorities and commitment to reform upper secondary education. The Bank facilitates continued political support as state and federal administrations change. The policy matrix is becoming an instrument to monitor progress.
Principle 2 – Agree up front with the Government and other financial partners on a
coordinated accountability framework. The Bank’s support is summarized in a brief policy matrix that was agreed with the Government. The matrix provides the accountability framework for the operation with a clear basis for measuring progress. The policy actions to be completed at each stage are well defined. The DPL’s macroeconomic framework is consistent with the IMF’s
policy advice. The DPL also builds on the Government’s technical program with other technical programs, including the IDB and UNICEF.
Principle 3 – Customize the accountability framework and modalities of Bank support to
country circumstances. The Bank’s support is built around the reform’s own timetable with a
matrix that was developed in close collaboration with the Federal Government after extensive consultations with stakeholders. Small adjustments were made for the second operation, reflecting rapid advances in some areas and delays in others.
Principle 4 – Choose only actions critical for achieving results as conditions for
disbursement. The matrix has been limited to maintain the coherence of the policy dialogue and
includes clear definitions of triggers. The Bank worked with the Government to identify actions that are central to the reform.
Principle 5 – Conduct transparent progress reviews conducive to predictable, performance-
based financial support. As originally planned, implementation of the first loan was timed to coincide with the preparation of the second operation. In addition, the Bank held a number of
informal contacts with SEMS and other stakeholders to monitor progress and maintain the policy dialogue.
71. Based on this, there are a number of important lessons that have been learned
from other Bank programs in Mexico and during the first operation of the DPL series
that were taken into account for this second operation. Among these are:
Have a focused program that works with well-defined government partners. Mexico
has a large economy with a sophisticated government and a large policy research
community. Even the financing from large Bank operations is small compared to the
sector budget. Operations work best if they have a well-defined focus and work with
one or two key agencies. While it is important to coordinate with other actors to
ensure synergy, it is crucial to have a clear partner. With this in mind, the proposed
operation has focused on a single, well-defined, ambitious reform (at the EMS level)
and partner (SEP) that will play a key role in improving the employability of youth
and Mexico’s competitiveness in the long run.
25
Develop a strong institutional relationship. While the public sector is relatively stable
in Mexico, all operations should be prepared for changes at different levels of
government. As with many mature political systems, institutions and programs remain,
and it is important to ensure that the Bank maintains lines of communication with the
institution that go beyond personal relationships. Since the beginning of the
preparation of proposed DPL, SEMS has seen important changes in leadership. The
Bank has maintained a strong dialogue throughout the period and has played a role in
maintaining focus in the direction of the reform.
Implement a flexible research and policy analysis program . Mexico has a strong
policy research capacity and SEMS has been proactive in developing a robust program
and evaluation. In such an environment, the Bank’s role should focus on providing
particular inputs into policy research as opposed to leading the research agenda.
Specific areas that are appreciated in Mexico include international experience on a
particular technical expertise that meet specific needs and solve defined bottlenecks.
As such, the Bank should be flexible in planning its technical activities.
Analytical Underpinnings
72. The reform is built upon government-led research and analysis. In 2007, SEMS
started with a detailed analysis of bottlenecks in EMS.22
The analysis assessed the
determinants of the high dropout rate and identified problems with equity and relevance.
Following the analysis, SEMS carefully studied a number of recent reforms in Mexico
(mostly in university and federal systems) and internationally, including Argentina, Chile, and
several European Union countries,23
and specific recommendations of recent analysis of
secondary education reforms.24
SEMS continues to carry out an ambitious agenda of research
and evaluation to improve the performance of the reform.
73. The DPL series was built upon strong analytical work and an extended policy
dialogue. The Bank has maintained a fruitful long-term dialogue with Mexican stakeholders
on improving EMS since the beginning of the reform. The work included organizing
international conferences, seminars, and workshops, preparation of analytical research, and
high level policy notes and briefings. This dialogue was supported by the Mexico Secondary
Education Project (EW-P106567-ESW-BB) and an extended series of technical cooperation
activities carried out from 2009 to 2011. This technical cooperation both supported the reform
in its initial stages and provided important background for this DPL series. Main areas of
support include:
Policy framework. The reform was built on an analysis of national and international
experience in secondary education. The World Bank contributed to this discussion,
22
For a detailed summary of the analysis undertaken by SEMS, see Secretaría de Educación Pública, Diario
Oficial-Septiembre 2008, Acuerdo 442 23
SEP reviewed literature included, Francoise Caillods, Las reformas de la educación secundaria en países de
Europa; Marianelly Cerri (et al), La reforma de la educación media en Chile (Santiago, 2003), among others. 24
For example, World Bank (2005) Expanding Opportunities and Building Competencies for Young People: A New Agenda for Secondary Education. Washington, DC: World Bank and several international conferences
organized by SEP to discuss upper secondary education reform (2009) and linkages to the labor market (2010).
26
with an analysis of the EMS system in Mexico, how it is financed, and its contribution
to the economy. This work was central in developing the DPL series.25
Evaluation. The Mexican government is a pioneer in the use of high quality
evaluations to inform policy decisions. The World Bank has played an important role
in promoting evaluation in education and has been supporting the evaluation process
since the start of the reform. This includes participation in the organization of the
evaluation strategy. The World Bank is supporting an evaluation of a program to
increase information to upper secondary students on career and education options.26
Assessment systems. Prior to the reform, the education system did not gather data on
EMS in a systematic fashion. SEMS requested support from the Bank in the
development of the assessment system and in helping Mexican policy makers
understand global trends in assessments systems.27
Relevance and labor market. The World Bank has supported the reform to increase
the relevance of the EMS and to facilitate the school-to-work transition. This included
supporting World Bank and OECD specialists to discuss options to improve the
incorporation of graduates into the workforce, based on international experience.
74. Moving forward, the Bank will continue to support the RIEMS through its
program of programmatic knowledge services. The Bank will also be directly involved in
the evaluation of PROFORDEMS teacher training proposed under this DPL, which will
provide elements to assess the impact of the overall teacher training process on teaching
practices. This study will consist of an analysis of the needs of upper secondary teachers and
the PROFORDEMS, followed by an impact evaluation study of the program. The Federal
Government has requested that the Bank focus its efforts on the state of Oaxaca, which is one
of the poorest in the states in Mexico and faces many challenges in the education sector.28
This work will be an important case study for other systems in the sector. The Government of
Oaxaca and the Bank will work jointly on a study to identify actions to improve the quality
and efficiency of rural upper secondary schools. Another study will focus on strategies to
improve student counseling and orientation, and to introduce international best practices,
given that students in EMS often do not have accurate information. Finally, the Bank will
work with the federal government to identify a benchmarking system to determine which
areas of the reforms are being implemented by different systems. This will help policy makers
to identify areas where additional support is needed.
25
This was carried out through dialogue with the government at the beginning of the reform process and through
the Mexico Secondary Education ESW (EW-P106567-ESW-BB). 26
This was financed under Tertiary Education Student Assistance Program (P085593, Loans 7346-MX and
7349-MX). 27
This was supported by the Mexico Secondary Education ESW (EW-P106567-ESW-BB). 28
This support is formalized by a Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Governor of Oaxaca and the
World Bank Country Director in June, 2011.
27
V. THE PROPOSED SECOND UPPER SECONDARY EDUCATION DPL
Operation Description
75. The proposed Development Policy Loan is the second in a programmatic series
that supports the Government in the implementation of RIEMS to improve the internal
efficiency of EMS and its responsiveness to the labor market . The programmatic series
supports actions in the following three areas addressing the key constraints of EMS: (i)
improving flexibility of upper secondary education; (ii) enhancing quality and relevance of
education; and (iii) reducing the opportunity cost of upper secondary education. Actions
supported by the DPL series will contribute to the internal efficiency of upper secondary
education and lead to a reduction in the dropout rate. Graduates will be better prepared with
the necessary skills for a modern workforce.
76. The first DPL supported the establishment of the National Upper Secondary
Education System (SNB). Under the DPL, the World Bank supported the legal steps to
formalize the reform and the definition of the first set of minimum standards needed for upper
secondary graduates. The DPL also supported actions to establish a student assessment system
and a school accreditation system for EMS, as well as the establishment of the teacher
training program (PROFORDEMS) and the consolidation of the EMS scholarship program.
77. This second DPL will focus on ensuring the continuity of the reform and
strengthening key institutions. DPL II will run from March 2012 to November 2013. The
reform has largely been implemented as described in DPL I, and the prior actions represent
the evolution of the Government’s program. Most of these prior actions for DPL II flow
directly from the indicative triggers and have been selected to reflect high priority policy and
institutional measures central to RIEMS. Table 5 presents the indicative triggers, and prior
actions for the proposed DPL II. The Government would like to leave open the possibility of
a third operation, depending on future policy developments and the country’s financing needs.
Indicative triggers for DPL III are included here, and in the Policy Matrix (Annex 2).
28
Table 5: Triggers and Prior Actions
Indicative Triggers DPL II prior actions Comments
1. Improving Flexibility of the National Upper Secondary Education System
Competency-Based curriculum is implemented in at least 50 percent of all federal schools.
In order to improve the employment prospects for graduates of the National Upper Secondary Education System, COPEEMS has approved eighty five technical programs for the National Upper
Secondary Education System, covering, among others, the fields of agriculture, services, administration, and information, as evidenced by COPEEMS’s report dated December 15, 2011 (Informe y Dictamen de Evaluación de los Planes y Programas de Estudio de la Coordinación Sectorial de Desarrollo Académico).
The Government has proceeded faster under this area of RIEMS than expected. This prior action builds on the two indicative
triggers and focuses on the design of the technical programs, which is an essential element to ensure that technical and professional education is aligned to the labor market.
The Government has completed the definition of generic, disciplinary and professional competencies to be achieved by the end of EMS.
2. Enhancing Quality and Relevance of the National Upper Secondary Education System
Mexico has carried out and disseminated a 12th grade learning assessment (ENLACE) nationwide based on basic disciplinary competencies that include mathematics, language, and at least
one other area (natural science or social science).
In order to improve the quality of Upper Secondary Education, promote greater transparency in evaluation and facilitate the development of new curricula for the National Upper Secondary Education System, INEE has disseminated the results of the EXCALE test administered to
students in the last year of the National Upper Secondary Education System between March and May of 2010, as evidenced by INEE’s report (La Educación Media Superior en México, Informe 2010-2011).
The prior action moves towards the full
establishment of the National Assessment System. The EXCALE assessment is permitting the monitoring of learning by EMS graduates and providing feedback for the continuous update of the curriculum and teaching practices. The dissemination of the results is
important for policy makers, education planners, and the general public in strengthening the quality of upper secondary education.
First sample-based education
examination (EXCALE) in EMS is completed. The sample is representative for major types of providers. Results of EXCALE disseminated and analysis and diagnostic prepared.
29
Indicative Triggers DPL II prior actions Comments
In order to improve the administration and implementation of PROFORDEMS, SEP has transferred the functions of supervision and
evaluation of PROFORDEMS to SEP’s Academic Development Unit, as evidenced by the Oficio No. 0142, dated February 17, 2011 issued by SEMS.
Given slow progress in numbers of teachers trained, it was agreed that it would be important to introduce a policy action linked to centralizing the oversight
functions of PROFORDEMS, to improve the performance of program.
COPEEMS has begun evaluation of schools for entry into the SNB
In order to establish clear rules regarding equal opportunity for all schools to join the National Upper Secondary Education System, the Executive Committee for the National Upper Secondary Education System has approved a modification of the rules which govern the school accreditation system, as evidenced by the Agreement No. 12/CD/2011 dated August 19, 2011, issued by the
Executive Committee.
The prior action reflects the policy action necessary
for COPEEMS to improve the accreditation
process. Government continues to refine the accreditation process, based on lessons learned, in order to maximize the participation of schools in the SNB.
70 percent of all federal school directors have been selected
competitively.
The Government has proceeded faster under this area of RIEMS than expected, and completed this activity as
an output of DPL I.
3. Reducing Opportunity Cost of Upper Secondary Education
In order to expand the coverage of the SIGUELE Program at the State level, SEP has established the guidelines to implement the SIGUELE Program at the State level, including the provision of technical support to the Borrower’s States to implement the program, as evidenced by the State Agreements.
This is a new prior action that reflects the
Government’s efforts to improve coordination of
different federal and state programs that focus on preventing students dropping out early from EMS, through SIGUELE, which was created in May 2011. SIGUELE is a mix of existing programs and new
programs under a common framework to improve coordination and impact.
30
Policy Areas
POLICY AREA I: IMPROVING FLEXIBILITY OF THE NATIONAL UPPER SECONDARY
EDUCATION SYSTEM (EMS)
78. This policy area supports initiatives under RIEMS relating to the Competency-Based
Curriculum (CBC), to introduce more flexibility in EMS. In particular, the actions here will
facilitate the transfer of students among and across the different systems, which was
extremely difficult before the reform.
Prior Action 1: In order to improve the employment prospects for graduates of the National
Upper Secondary Education System, COPEEMS has approved eighty five technical programs
for the National Upper Secondary Education System, covering, among others, the fields of
agriculture, services, administration, and information, as evidenced by COPEEMS’ report
dated December 15, 2011 (Informe y Dictamen de Evaluación de los Planes y Programas de
Estudio de la Coordinación Sectorial de Desarrollo Académico).
79. Actions under DPL I supported the establishment of the institutional basis of the
National Upper Secondary Education System (Sistema Nacional de Bachillerato, SNB), the
establishment of a set of minimum competencies that students should achieve by the end of
upper secondary education, and the formation of a committee to create national competency
standards for technical programs in EMS. This first phase developed the Common Framework
(Marco Curricular Común) of the Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC) for the SNB, which
is composed of the Generic competencies (such as communicating effectively or living a
healthy lifestyle) and the Subject Area Competencies (such as mathematics and Spanish).29
As a result, the Common Framework of the CBC was adopted in all federal systems, three
state systems (Mexico, Oaxaca, and Puebla), 12 autonomous university systems, and one
private system by December 2011. This represents around 85 percent of the total enrollment
in EMS and exceeds the expectations outlined in DPL I.30
80. The prior action for DPL II supports continued development and subsequent
approval of the minimum standards, specifically for technical programs. These standards are
expressed as Professional Competencies that students studying in technical or vocational
fields (ranging from accounting to automotive mechanics to hospitality services) need to
acquire. As with the other competencies, they outline what is expected for graduates and serve
as a ―seal of quality‖ for employers and also allow students to transfer more efficiently from
one program to another. There are approximately 100 technical programs offered by different
Technological Upper Secondary systems, 85 of which have been approved by COPEEMS as
of December 2011.
81. Indicative Trigger for DPL III under Policy Area I. The next phase in RIEMS to
improve the flexibility in EMS is introducing the single national certificate for EMS
graduates.
SEP issues rules (through acuerdo secretarial or other instrument) for the
Certificado Nacional de Bachillerato.
29
The extended Subject Area Competencies were also developed during this time. 30
Informe Anual de Actividades del COPEEMS (Ejercicio 2011).
31
82. Expected DPL II outputs and Program outcomes of Policy Area I. The prior
actions in this policy area will contribute to the continued introduction of the CBC throughout
EMS, focusing on the Specialized Tracks area. Among the expected outputs are that the four
service providers (federal, state, autonomous university and private) have formally adopted
the CBC. For this Policy Area, Table 6 outlines the intermediate and end of Program
outcomes for each of the three operations of the DPL Program.
Table 6: Expected Program Outcomes for Policy Area 1
Program Outcome Baseline
(2008)
End of DPL I
(June 2011)
End of DPL II
(June 2013)
End of DPL III
(June 2014)
1. Improving Flexibility of Upper Secondary Education
Percent of upper secondary
schools that accept student
transfers and validate
equivalencies.
Less than 10% Less than 10% 25% 40%
POLICY AREA II: ENHANCING QUALITY AND RELEVANCE OF THE NATIONAL UPPER
SECONDARY EDUCATION SYSTEM
83. This policy area focuses on actions to improve the quality of EMS so that students
have the appropriate skills to enter and remain in the labor market or continue to university.
Specifically, it supports the New Tools and Institutions (student assessments, teacher training)
and Certification (school accreditation) part of RIEMS. As a result of the actions supported
under this policy area, EMS graduates will improve their skills (as measured by standardized
test scores) and will be in a better position to find jobs.
Prior Action 2: In order to improve the quality of Upper Secondary Education, promote
greater transparency in evaluation, and facilitate the development of new curricula for the
National Upper Secondary Education System, INEE has disseminated the results of the
EXCALE test administered to students in the last year of the National Upper Secondary
Education System between March and May of 2010, as evidenced by INEE’s report (La
Educación Media Superior en México, Informe 2010-2011).
84. Actions under DPL I supported the establishment of a National Evaluation System
for the National Upper Secondary Education System. This was carried out through a formal
agreement between SEP and INEE in 2009, in which they agreed on the protocol to share
information and disseminate the results to policy makers and the public. As a result, INEE
published for the first time in 2011 the 2009 Indicadores del Sistema de Educación Media
Superior. Additionally, a system evaluation (EXCALE) was carried out in March-May 2010,
focusing on students in the last year of upper secondary education. This evaluation was
considered an output from DPL I. Another element of the National Evaluation System is that
ENLACE was revised to bring it in line with the newly developed Generic and Subject Area
Competencies that are the foundation for the CBC and the expansion of ENLACE to all
students in the last grade of Upper Secondary Education. In the 2010-11 school year 885,000
students (88 percent of eligible students) took ENLACE in mathematics and language. The
original government plan was for ENLACE to include an additional subject area (natural
science or social science). However, in order to institutionalize the basic elements of the
assessment, it was decided to delay the introduction of the additional subject until April 2012.
32
85. The prior action for DPL II, the analysis and dissemination of EXCALE results
(published in 2011) will strengthen the National Evaluation System for EMS. The detailed
analysis will help all actors (SEP officials, teacher training agencies, school directors and
school teachers) better understand the specific problem areas within EMS. Breaking down the
obstacles to learning into concrete elements to be addressed during the remainder of RIEMS
will allow improvements in the quality of instruction.
Prior Action 3: In order to improve the administration and implementation of
PROFORDEMS, SEP has transferred the functions of supervision and evaluation of
PROFORDEMS to SEP’s Academic Development Unit, as evidenced by the Oficio No. 0142,
dated February 17, 2011 issued by SEMS.
86. The actions under DPL I supported the development of the Upper Secondary
Education Teacher Training Program – PROFORDEMS – which is benefiting teachers from
all States. The program began in October 2008 and has enrolled approximately 100,000
teachers to date (November 2011), about half of whom (49,896) have graduated. These
figures are significantly less than the expected outcome of 120,000 teachers graduating from
PROFORDEMS by December 2010, due to high demand outpacing funding and to a diffusion
of responsibility in monitoring, evaluating and following-up the implementation of the
reform. As a result, the expected outcome table was revised to reflect the slow progress of
PROFORDEMS.
87. The prior action for DPL II supports the changes in the administration and
supervision of PROFORDEMS. Specifically, to address the issue of diffuse responsibility,
SEMS has transferred the coordination and supervision functions of the program to SEMS’
Academic Development Unit (Coordinación Sectorial de Desarrollo Académico, COSDAC).
The transfer of supervision and evaluation functions to COSDAC is expected improve the
coordination of PROFORDEMS, thereby expediting the enrollment, graduation and
certification of teachers. Other teacher training entities (ANUIES and UPN) will continue to
be involved in PROFORDEMS and will now be more sharply focused on their technical role
for the improvement of PROFORDEMS programs and training of EMS teachers.
Prior Action 4: In order to establish clear rules regarding equal opportunity for all schools to
join the National Upper Secondary Education System, the Executive Committee for the
National Upper Secondary Education System, has approved a modification of the rules which
govern the school accreditation system, as evidenced by the Agreement No. 12/CD/2011
dated August 19, 2011, issued by the Executive Committee.
88. The actions under DPL I supported the beginning of an accreditation process for
EMS with the legal establishment in 2009 of COPEEMS, a civil association set up to evaluate
the entry of schools into the National Upper Secondary Education System. Under DPL I, SEP
issued the guidelines and the by-laws for COPEEMS. As a result, COPEEMS began
operating almost immediately, receiving its first subsidy from SEP in 2010. Implementation
of the school accreditation part of RIEMS was swifter than expected. COPEEMS developed
minimum standards for accreditation of schools, and has recruited 15 evaluation
organizations. COPEEMS then trained 465 individual evaluators from these 15 organizations.
For the first round of evaluations, the evaluation statement classified each school in one of
three categories: i) ―aspiring‖ schools; ii) ―candidate‖ schools; and iii) ―registered‖ schools.
33
However, this resulted in a lack of clarity over whether non-registered schools were being left
outside of the SNB.
89. The prior action for DPL II supports the accreditation process for schools for entry
into the SNB. Specifically, the prior action supports the updating of the rules governing
school accreditation. In an effort to address the limitations of the accreditation system and to
clarify the status of schools as being formally recognized as accredited, the SNB Executive
Committee (Comité Directivo) has modified the policies for obtaining and maintaining
accreditation. The primary change is introducing a new classification of schools replacing the
levels of ―aspiring,‖ ―candidate,‖ and ―registered,‖ with a 1-2-3 system that formally accredits
all schools attaining minimum criteria. Under this new approach, schools that are granted a
Level 1 are those that meet all (or nearly all) accreditation criteria; schools granted a Level 2
are those that meet about half of the criteria; and schools granted a Level 3 are those that only
meet the minimum criteria. Schools not meeting the minimum criteria for incorporation into
the SNB will not be accredited. In all cases, COPEEMS provides extensive feedback to
schools. These changes required the updating of the rules governing school accreditation. The
SNB Executive Committee (Comité Directivo) passed Resolution 12 (Acuerdo 12), through
which several previous policies, including those related to the operational manual of the SNB
Executive Committee (Acuerdo 1 y 2) and those detailing the criteria related to SNB
accreditation levels, were changed. These changes are being incorporated in the revised
Operational Manual with detailed instructions for COPEEMS staff and independent
evaluators formally recognized by COPEEMS. COPEEMS has reviewed the four major
federal systems to evaluate their readiness for accreditation, including administering a self-
assessment of federal schools. In addition, four states and six autonomous university systems
also expressed interest in being reviewed. Around 3,000 schools (in the public, private, and
autonomous university systems) are ready to apply for accreditation. About 175 schools from
different systems have provided COPEEMS with the requisite data, completing the first step
in the submission of an application for evaluation.
90. Indicative Triggers for DPL III under Policy Area II. The future actions of
RIEMS to continue to improve the quality and relevance of EMS include broadening the
focus on teachers and continuing with the evaluation agenda. Specifically, RIEMS will move
to make part-time teachers (the majority of the teachers in EMS) eligible to participate in
PROFORDEMS, and will introduce equivalency exams to gain certification, in order to
recognize teachers that have benefited from alternative training programs. With regards to
evaluations, the rules for disseminating results at the state-level have yet to be formalized.
SEP and INEE entered into partnership agreements with some states to disseminate
results from the National Evaluation System.
SEP has developed a policy for training part-time public teachers.
SEP has developed a mechanism to officially recognize alternative training programs.
91. Expected DPL II outputs and Program outcomes of Policy Area II. The prior
actions under this policy area will contribute to the following outputs: (i) the publication by
INEE of the EXCALE results; (ii) the enrollment of 120,000 teachers in the In-Service
Teacher Capacity Building Program (PROFORDEMS); and (iii) the evaluation of at least 100
34
schools from among the 175 schools that have started the accreditation process.31
For
outcomes under Policy Area II, Table 7 outlines the expected intermediate and end of
Program outcomes for each of the three operations in the DPL Program.
Table 7: Expected Program Outcomes for Policy Area 2
Program Outcome Baseline
(2008)
End of DPL I
(June, 2011)
End of DPL II
(June, 2013)
End of DPL III
(June 2014)
2. Enhancing Quality and Relevance of Upper Secondary Education
Reduction in dropout rate in upper
secondary education 41.7% 36.7% 33.0%-35.0% 33.0%
Percentage of students scoring in the
categories of good or excellent in
ENLACE assessment in Spanish and
mathematics
52.3%
15.6%
54.3%
24.7%
59.0%
28.0 %
63.0%
35.0%
POLICY AREA III: REDUCING THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF UPPER SECONDARY EDUCATION.
92. The federal government is committed to increasing opportunities for the poor and
vulnerable youth to complete EMS, as emphasized by the Mentoring and Student Welfare
initiatives under RIEMS. Analysis shows that many students drop out at the upper secondary
level because they need to work. Unlike basic education, public upper secondary schools
often charges fees, which increase the cost even more. The reform will be particularly
beneficial to poorer students who have a higher dropout rate by increasing options for
students who do not continue to higher education.
Prior Action 5: In order to expand the coverage of the SIGUELE Program at the State level,
SEP has established the guidelines to implement the SIGUELE Program at the State level,
including the provision of technical support to the States to implement the Program, as
evidenced by the State Agreements.
93. Actions under DPL I. DPL I supported the consolidation of the scholarship program
with a common set of rules and a targeted focus on poor students. As a result of these changes
and an expansion in the budget for scholarships, the number of scholarships in upper
secondary education increased from 280,000 in the 2007-08 school year (the first year of the
program) to about 427,000 in the 2009-10 school year, exceeding the Government’s target of
320,000 scholarships. The number of scholarships is expected to increase to 500,000 in the
2013-14 school year.
94. The prior action for DPL II is built around the establishment of the over-arching
SIGUELE Program, which serves as a coordinating mechanism for five existing programs
that support vulnerable youth in Upper Secondary Education. SIGUELE coordinates
programs that provide financial, pedagogical, and socio-emotional support to vulnerable
youth. SIGUELE is expanding to all federal schools in the 2011-12 academic year and many
other systems have expressed interest in adopting the model. In order to expand SIGUELE to
other school systems, CONAEDU has entered into cooperation agreements (convenios) with
31
This is in line with the Government’s expected outputs for this phase of the reform program, and updates the
Results Matrix presented in the Program Document for DPL I.
35
States, to help implement the SIGUELE program in state systems, including transferring
program instruments and providing training.
95. Triggers for Policy Area III. The continued expansion of SIGUELE under RIEMS
will require empirical evidence to inform future decisions. The Government is considering
various options to evaluate the programs under SIGUELE.
SEP carries out an evaluation of SIGUELE.
96. Expected DPL II outputs and program outcomes of Policy Area III. The federal
government is moving quickly to expand SIGUELE to the states. Nineteen states (out of 32)
have entered into an agreement to work with SIGUELE and introduce its programs. The
intermediate and end of Program outcomes for this Policy Area, shown in Table 8, focus on
the reform’s impact on the enrollment of students from poorer income quintiles. It is also
likely that there will be a similar impact of education achievement (quality) but there are no
appropriate baselines.
Table 8: Expected Program Outcomes for Policy Area 3
Program Outcome Baseline (2008)
End of DPL I (June 2011)
End of DPL II (June 2013)
End of DPL III (June 2014)
3. Reducing Opportunity Cost of Upper Secondary Education
Increased completion rates in EMS for
the lowest income quintile 47% 48% 50% 52%
Transition rate from lower to upper
secondary school for the lowest income
quintile
57% 59% 63% 64%
VI. OPERATION IMPLEMENTATION
Poverty and Social Impacts
97. When fully implemented, the reform should bring only positive benefits to all
Mexican students and it should disproportionately benefit poor students. In particular, it
will have two major impacts on the poor and vulnerable youth. First, it will lead to higher
enrollment and graduation rates, bringing them closer to the national average. Second, the
reform should bring higher quality for all students, which benefits poor youth who tend to
study in lower quality schools.
98. The reform introduced targeted support for poor students. The federal
government established a scholarship program for EMS. The new EMS scholarship program
covers needy students who are not eligible for Oportunidades. To create the scholarship fund,
SEP has consolidated almost all of the existing scholarship programs at the EMS level,
focusing them on the poor. The budget for the scholarship program increased from MX$1.32
billion in 2007 to MX$2.65 billion in 2011. Even with this additional budget, program
36
statistics show that approximately 101,000 applicants were not covered due to insufficient
budget (35 percent of all eligible applicants).32
99. The reform has focused on improving education quality in programs that
primarily benefit poorer students. While there is some concern that the reform’s focus on
quality will largely benefit wealthier systems, the reform was designed to improve quality
specifically in public schools that serve youth at risk. COPEEMS’ review specifically focuses
on teaching and organizational characteristics, which are areas where poorer schools can
improve their performance. Since 2007, most of the federal capital budget was allocated to
schools in poorer areas to prepare them for the reform and accreditation through investment in
laboratories, information technology, and libraries.
100. The reform provides support to technical and professional programs which
typically attract poorer students. In Mexico, like other countries, better-off students have
tended to focus on academic studies leading to higher education. The reform has put particular
emphasis on technical and professional areas through its consolidation of programs and the
development of new curriculum. This makes technical and professional education more
relevant and benefits poorer students who are more likely to be studying in technical and
professional schools and systems. The reforms will ultimately lead to greater employment
prospects for graduates.
101. The reform is also promoting a number of actions to improve psychosocial
(“soft”) skills and information. Under the framework of SIGUELE, there are a number of
programs that aim at keeping youth in school and increasing support for youth at risk.
CONSTRUYE-T is an important element to build social skills and social capital of youth,
particularly poor youth. CONSTRUYE-T has a special focus to look at issues facing
indigenous students as well as gender issues. Indeed, ongoing evaluations suggest that the
program has been effective with poorer youth. The federal government has increased
financing from MX$21 million in 2008 to MX$100 million in 2011. CONSTUYE-T was
rolled out in poorer urban schools first. A similar approach was used with the tutoring and
reading programs, which were initiated in poorer schools first.
102. The sector has significant resources to monitor equity in coverage. At the sector
level, there is extensive information on the coverage of the EMS by state and system.
Administrative data are available by gender and locality (which serves as a proxy for poverty
and indigenous status) of both the school, and the student. This is complemented by the work
of INEE, which monitors the sector, and extensive survey and assessment data. Both the
scholarship and Oportunidades databases have detailed information on the living standards
and ethnicity of applicants and beneficiaries. To understand the impact of the scholarship
program, SEMS is carrying out an evaluation taking advantage of existing data.
103. The increase in coverage in recent years has been decidedly pro-poor. The
number of poor students in EMS from the lowest income quintile increased from 731,000 to
846,000 between 2006 to 2010 and the probability of finishing EMS increasing substantially
for the poorest groups. This compares to the total increase in enrollment from 3.55 million in
the 2005-2006 school year to 4.05 million in the 2009-2010 school year. The probability of
32
Applicants are ordered by socio-economic status and the poorest eligible applicants are given the highest
priority for funding.
37
graduating depends on two factors: the probability of enrolling and the probability of finishing
upper secondary schools for those who enroll. While the probability of enrollment has
increased modestly, the probability of finishing EMS has increased significantly especially for
the poorest groups. For example, the poorest quintile saw its completion rate increase from
2006 to 2010 by 5.8 percentage points, compared to an increase of 3.0 percentage point for
the wealthiest quintile. Figure 6 estimates the probability of EMS completion between 2006
and 2014 for the population between the ages of 16 and 20 years old. This estimate shows a
significant increase in the probability of graduating for the first and second income quintiles
and a modest increase for the highest income quintile. The first two income quintiles have
effectively closed the gap with the third and fourth income quintiles. This is likely to be a
product of the increased financial support, coupled with an increase in the relevance of the
education. Overall, the graduation rate is expected to increase 17.2 percent for the lowest
income group and 11.1 percent for the second income quintile. The growth in graduation may
be the result of higher demand due to the increased quality and relevance.
Figure 6: Probability of Finishing EMS by Income Quintile
(population 16 to 20 years old)
104. There do not appear to be significant differences in coverage by gender.
Traditionally, men received more education on average than women. This disparity has
largely disappeared; among youth aged 15 to 17 years old, the enrollment rate is 76 percent
for both males and females, with females having a higher level of education. Overall, male
students are significantly more likely to drop out of upper secondary before graduation.33
105. Initial signs show that education quality is improving for all, particularly the
poor. ENLACE results show improvement in learning outcomes in both mathematics and
reading. From 2008 to 2010 the number of students with good or excellent results increased
by 30 percent in mathematics and by 10% in reading. An analysis of ENLACE results by
locality34
shows substantial increases in the poorest areas. In 2008, only 6.1 percent of
students in the poorest areas had good or excellent results in mathematics, while in 2010 rose
33
Instituto Nacional para Evaluación de Educación. 2011. La Educación Media Superior en México. 34
The National Population Council (Consejo Nacional de Población, CONAPO) ranks all localities according to
their socio-economic characteristics, with ratings from very high marginalization, high marginalization, medium marginalization, low marginalization, and very low marginalization. While there are a range of people living in
each of these localities, there are few non-poor living in areas with high and very high marginalization.
38
to 10.5 percent, an increase of 72 percent. While the gap between rich and poor areas is still
significant, it has decreased from its initial levels in both reading and mathematics.
Environmental Aspects
106. The proposed program is not likely to have a significant adverse effect on the
environment, forests, or other natural resources. None of the actions supported by the
DPL will directly support the construction or rehabilitation of schools. While the focus of the
DPL is on policy reform, other actions supported by the Government may involve upgrading
infrastructure. Discussions with education authorities suggest this upgrading will primarily
focus on maintenance and repair of existing infrastructure and additional equipment, such as
books, lab equipment, and audiovisual supplies. Current federal government policy does not
support the construction of new schools. At the federal level, Mexico has well-developed
environmental and safety regulations that govern the construction and rehabilitation of
schools at all levels. These include regulations that cover environmental impact assessments,
seismic preparedness, control of pollutants, and the protection of water and natural areas.
Some of these laws apply for all schools, while others apply to schools wholly or partially
financed through the federal budget.
Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation
107. The Ministry of Public Education is responsible for the implementation of the
DPL series. Although the reform is a joint effort of many actors in the education sector, SEP
through SEMS is the lead agency coordinating and supporting the reform. Together with the
Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público, SHCP),
SEMS will collect the necessary data to assess the implementation program and report back to
the Bank. This relationship worked well for the first operation in the MUSE DPL series,
where there was one formal review mission and numerous contacts both in person and via
internet to promote the dialogue and monitor progress. At least one review mission is also
planned for the second operation.
108. The reform places a premium on strengthening monitoring and evaluation. Prior
to the initiation of the reform, SEMS introduced in 2007 the System for Continuous
Improvement of EMS (Sistema de Mejora Contínua de la Gestión de la Educación Media
Superior, SIGEMS) to monitor federal schools.35
The SEMS is in a dialogue with states and
the systems to develop a unitary information system for the schools, offering the SIGEMS as
the initial platform. Several systems have accepted this expanded system. This system will
allow monitoring the impact of the reform on participating schools. SIGEMS has been a
major source of information for monitoring the first operation of the MUSE DPL series.
109. Many of the institutions created by the reform also focus on providing
monitoring information. As shown in the policy matrix, INEE is expanding its coverage into
EMS. As an independent agency, INEE provides public and policy makers with detailed
reports and analysis on education. Likewise, the introduction of ENLACE, and more recently
EXCALE, in the upper secondary level allow stakeholders to monitor quality. COPEEMS
relies greatly on data to evaluate the quality of individual schools and their data on
35
The SIGEMS complements the existing Formato 911 monitoring system in the federal schools. The 911 system, which operates in all schools at both the basic and upper secondary levels, contains over 300 indicators.
In addition to the school based indicators, SIGEMS includes information on students.
39
accreditation also provide a rich source of data to stakeholders. All of these agencies will
provide input to better monitor the DPL.
Fiduciary Aspects
110. The public financial management systems at the Federal level are adequate to
support development policy lending in the country. This has been documented in several
World Bank analytical works, such as the Country Financial Accountability Assessment
(CFAA), the Country Procurement Assessment Report (CPAR), and other analytical work,
including knowledge services products and other DPLs approved in recent years. As
envisioned in the CPS, the Bank has been collaborating with the Mexican Government at the
central and sub-national level in strategic areas aimed at modernizing and reforming public
finances and increasing transparency. This has been supported through a package of different
Bank financing instruments and knowledge services.
111. In the last decade, the Government has introduced a number of laws and policy
reforms in public finances aimed at improving fiscal responsibility and transparency by
modernizing the budget process and creating a more efficient and transparent fiscal
framework in line with international good practices. The funding from this DPL will
support the Federal Expenditure Budget (Presupuesto de Egresos Federales, PEF) and,
accordingly, will be subject to provisions of the annual PEF Law, the Federal Budget and
Fiscal Responsibility Law, the Government Accounting Law, and the Manual of Budget
Procedures among others. The PEF is published and available on the Web site of the SHCP
for the current and prior years.36
This set of legal and regulatory arrangements, together with
the country financial management operating systems, provides for sound budget formulation,
execution and internal control arrangements for execution of public expenditures. Other
internal control aspects are ruled by the Federal Public Administration Internal Control
Standards.
112. Although rules and procedures governing the budget, accounting, and public
expenditure laws are clear and comprehensive, and the budget monitoring and control
systems perform well, there remain areas within the public finances where further
advances could be pursued. Developing a long term focus for the budget, including
performance results in the budget formulation process, and engaging the public sector to focus
on results are key priorities. Currently, the Government is working toward achieving the
envisioned PFM reforms, including harmonized budget and accounting financial reporting,
modernization of its treasury operations, as well as designing and implementing an integrated
financial information management system at federal level which is expected to be
implemented by 2012.
113. The current Government has the objective to align public procurement more
closely with economic expenditure policy, aimed at producing value for money, ensuring
transparency, economy and efficiency, while improving the overall quality of the goods and
services. In addition, operational changes as well as amendments to the legal and regulatory
framework advanced in 2009 and 2010 have taken several important steps towards addressing
the issues identified in previous World Bank assessments of the federal procurement system
36
See http://www.shcp.gob.mx/ApartadosHaciendaParaTodos/paquete_economico_2012/index.html
40
in Mexico (2007,37
2010,38
and 201139
). As envisioned in the Country Procurement Strategy,
the World Bank is collaborating with the Mexican Government in modernizing its public
procurement and other aspects of the PFM. This support is being provided by a number of
knowledge services as well as lending instruments.
114. As for external oversight, the Federal Supreme Audit Institution conducts a
number of audits on a regular basis (i.e. financial, performance, and compliance audits)
on federal Government programs. The annual public accounts are prepared and sent to
Congress within four months of the end of each fiscal year. The external audit of these
accounts is undertaken by the Auditor General’s office and submitted to the legislature
fourteen months after the end of each fiscal year in accordance with national legislation. Audit
reports are comprehensive and there is a system in place to follow up on audit findings and
recommendations, in coordination with the Ministry of Civil Service (Secretaría de la
Función Pública, SFP). The results of audits by the Auditor General’s office are made public
in the Annual Audit Report on the Federal Public Accounts. Recent amendments to the
Federal Constitution and a new Law on Supreme Auditing and Accountability have
contributed to the overall strengthening of country fiscal transparency and accountability.
Disbursement and Auditing
115. The flow of fund arrangements for this operation will be those customarily
observed in DPLs for Mexico, as per long-standing agreements with the Government.
The SHCP has informed the Bank that Nacional Financiera (NAFIN) will be the financial
agent of the Borrower with regard to this DPL.40
Under this arrangement, upon effectiveness
and compliance with any withdrawal tranche release conditions, the Bank would deposit the
single tranche disbursement to a designated account of the financial agent in US Dollars for
subsequent credit to an account of the National Treasury (SHCP/Tesorería de la Federación,
TESOFE) used for budgeted expenditures. Based on the review of the 2010 audit reports of
the financial agent and the extensive experience between the Bank and the financial agent
regarding funds flow from Bank-financed projects, there is no evidence that the banking
control environment into which the DPL proceeds would flow is other than adequate. If
requested by the Bank, the SHCP would provide the Bank with a written confirmation of the
described transaction.
116. Based on the assessment of the Borrower’s current Public Financial Management and
the conclusion that the fiduciary arrangements for this financing are adequate, the Bank will
not require an audit of the designated account of the financial agent, and no additional
fiduciary arrangements are considered necessary at this time.
37
The World Bank Country Procurement Assessment Review (CPAR) of 2007 (prepared jointly with the IDB)
identified issues in the public procurement system including excessive regulatory complexity and need for more
effective governance and coordination. 38
Relevant aspects of the legal, operational and institutional structures of the federal procurement system in
Mexico was reviewed as part of the Strengthening the Business Environment for Enhanced Economic Growth
Development Policy Loan, November 2010. 39
World Bank Knowledge Services, November 2011 40
The use of a financial agent and designated account is a standard procedure of the Government of Mexico for
their control purposes and not an additional requirement by the Bank.
41
Risks and Risk Mitigation
117. The operation is subject to four significant risks:
118. Macroeconomic risks. While Mexico has largely recovered from the economic crisis,
the country continues to face risk from the global economy. In particular, the Mexican
economy is dependent on economic activities in the United States and the recovery in the
latter still appears to be weak. At the same time, the possibility of an economic slowdown in
Europe also raises the risk for the Mexican economy and may put the banking sector under
risk. An economic slowdown could make it difficult for the Mexican Government and state
governments to finance the reform program and provide additional resources. An economic
shock would also lower employment possibilities for EMS graduates. This may lead to a
reduction in enrollment as the sector loses its relevance or it may lead to an increase in
enrollment, as youth return to school in the face of a poor job market. Regardless, the strong
consensus on the importance of the reform makes it unlikely that the macroeconomic situation
will prevent the Government from implementing the reforms described in the MUSE DPL
series. The base case estimate is that the reform will cost around 0.1 percent of the GDP over
the next three decades. The long-term nature of the reform gives the Government some
leeway in slowing certain elements while maintaining the overall momentum. During the
economic crisis of 2008-2009, the government gave high priority to RIEMS and ensured that
the reform had adequate resources even as it reduced funding for other areas.
119. Political and sustainability risks. At the national level, Mexico will hold federal
elections in July 2012. This raises the risk that the new federal administration (December
2012-December 2018) will halt or substantially adjust the reform. In practice, this is highly
unlikely. There is strong consensus to continue and deepen the reform in the next
administration. The reform program is being supported by the Federal and all of the State
Governments, regardless of the political party in power. RIEMS was built upon widespread
consensus and almost all EMS systems joined the reform voluntarily. For the upcoming
federal elections, all major political parties have shown their support for the reform and have
indicated their objective to provide the necessary financing. Congress has also strongly
supported RIEMS and has allocated additional resources. Recent changes in state
administrations have shown that the reform can be sustained even when there were major
changes in state administration (for example, the state election in Oaxaca in July 2010).
120. There is also a risk that the implementation of RIEMS will slow down prior to the
election and during the transition. The reform’s basic institutions were all created under the
first DPL and have now gained strong momentum. Only six states will hold elections in 2012.
The other 26 states have held elections at some point during the reform and all have continued
to support the reform after the change in state administration. Continued policy dialogue will
also contribute to the reform’s stability. Finally, the international attention that the reform has
received will also strengthen continuity.
121. At the EMS level, there is also a risk that as the reform moves forward, some systems
will ―break away‖ and stop participating in the reform. However, the SNB Committee and
CONAEDU-SEMS meet periodically to find solutions and address the needs of different
reform actors that affect implementation. To date, there has been no systematic opposition to
the reform. The different Teachers’ Unions have actively participated and generally supported
42
the reform due to the provision of in-service and post-graduate training programs for teachers
through PROFORDEMS.
122. Risk from Crime and Violence. In recent years, Mexico has seen a significant uptick
in violence in many strata of society. Youth, in particular, have played a major role both as
victims and perpetrators. Much of the recent unease about the NiNis reflects the concern this
group of youth, who are out of school and not working, may continue to fuel the crime wage.
In a worst-case scenario, crime and violence could divert the Government’s attention away
from the underlying social problems and towards ―quick fix‖ solutions that would undermine
progress in EMS.
123. In practice, the reform itself is a powerful tool in protecting youth from crime and
violence. As the reform proceeds, more youth will stay in school and those that graduate will
be more likely to gain employment. By itself, this will reduce the population of NiNis. In
addition, the Federal Government and many other systems have been actively using Upper
Secondary as an instrument to reduce the number of youth at risk. This is being accomplished
through programs such as CONSTRUYE-T and is being supported by the Federal
Government’s new overarching SIGUELE Program, which coordinates existing programs and
identifies youth at risk faster and more efficiently.
124. Institutional Risk. The complexity of the EMS due to its various systems; the uneven
technical capacity across federal, state, autonomous universities and private establishments
that deliver EMS; and the multi-institutional nature of the reform represent a risk to an even
and timely implementation of the RIEMS. The creation of SEMS in 2005 has strengthened the
coordination of the EMS as has the creation of CONAEDU-SEMS. SEMS has a clear
responsibility to lead and coordinate the reform. Likewise, the reform has adopted a common
set of objectives and indicators with a common monitoring and evaluation system
(SUGEMS). The RIEMS has fostered collaboration and consensus among different actors. As
part of the Reform, the newly created institutions such as COPEEMS have also received the
necessary support and resources to implement the Reform. In addition, different EMS
education establishments are receiving financial and technical support to keep pace with the
reform. For example, there is a fund for incorporation to the SNB. This fund allocates
financial resources to EMS education establishments for improving infrastructure based on
the number of students per state, the level of marginalization where the school is located, and
the level of commitment of the states in the process of incorporation to the SNB.
43
ANNEX 1: LETTER OF DEVELOPMENT POLICY
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
TRANSLATED LETTER OF DEVELOPMENT POLICY
51
52
53
54
55
56
ANNEX 2: SECOND UPPER SECONDARY EDUCATION DPL POLICY MATRIX
Table 1: Prior Actions
Key Issues and Reform Actions
undertaken prior to 2009
Prior Actions for DPL 1
(April 2010)
Prior Actions for DPL 2
(December 2011)
Proposed Triggers for
DPL 3
(December 2013)
1. Improving Flexibility of the National Upper Secondary Education System
Key Issues: Lack of common standards and mutual recognition across systems prevents students from moving from one system to another, makes it hard for the
system to adjust to changing market condition and encourages students to drop out of schools.
SEP has created the institutional basis
for the Sistema Nacional de
Bachillerato (SNB) through the
publication of 9 Federal resolutions
(Acuerdos Secretariales) in the
Diario Oficial (approved from Sept.
26, 2008 to June 23, 2009).
SEP has established the set of
minimum generic competencies that
students need to achieve by the end
of upper secondary education in the
National Upper Secondary Education
System (established on Oct. 21,
2008)
SEP has established a National
Upper Secondary Education
System and established the
institutional basis of said system.
Means of Verification: Copies of
signed agreements with the States.
SEP has established the set of
minimum competencies by subject
that students need to achieve by
the end of upper secondary
education in the National Upper
Secondary Education System.
Means of Verification: Agreement
486, issued by SEP, and published in
the Official Gazette on April 30,
2009.
Stakeholders have formed a
committee to create national
competence standards for technical
programs in EMS.
In order to improve the employment prospects for
graduates of the National Upper Secondary Education
System, COPEEMS, has approved eighty five technical
programs for the National Upper Secondary Education
System, covering, among others, the fields of
agriculture, services, administration and information.
Means of Verification: Evidenced by COPEEMS’s report dated December 15, 2011 (Informe y Dictamen de
Evaluación de los Planes y Programas de Estudio de la
Coordinación Sectorial de Desarrollo Académico).
SEP issues rules
(through acuerdo
secretarial or other
instrument) for the
Certificado Nacional de
Bachillerato.
Means of Verification: Acuerdo Secretarial.
57
Key Issues and Reform Actions
undertaken prior to 2009
Prior Actions for DPL 1
(April 2010)
Prior Actions for DPL 2
(December 2011)
Proposed Triggers for DPL 3
(December 2013)
2. Enhancing Quality and Relevance of the National Upper Secondary Education System
Key Issue: The quality of Mexico’s upper-secondary education is low, and many students feel they do not obtain relevant skills for the labor market. Schools have
not been held accountable for learning outcomes, because of lack of school-level indicators; and there is no incentive for success under current governance
arrangements.
Mexico has carried out and
disseminated a census assessment of 12
th grade learning to evaluate
knowledge in mathematics and
language. (Carried out in 2008 and
2009)
A teacher training program developed by SEP in association
with UPN and ANUIES has been
designed and initial teacher
training programs developed and
carried out by UPN and by
ANUIES. (Finalized on May 6,
2008).
SEP has established a national
evaluation system for the National Upper Secondary Education
System.
Means of Verification: Coordination
guidelines agreed between the
Borrower’s Under-Ministry for
upper secondary education and
INEE dated July 24, 2009
SEP, in collaboration with UPN
and ANUIES, has developed an
Upper Secondary Education
Teacher Training Program – PROFORDEMS – which is
benefiting teachers from all States.
In order to improve the quality of Upper Secondary
Education, promote greater transparency in evaluation and facilitate the development of new curricula for the
National Upper Secondary Education System, INEE
has disseminated the results of the EXCALE test which
was administered to students in the last year of the
National Upper Secondary Education System between
March and May of 2010.
Means of Verification: Evidenced by INEE’s report (La
Educación Media Superior en Mexico, Informe 2010-
2011).
In order to improve the administration and
implementation of PROFORDEMS, SEP has
transferred the functions of supervision and evaluation
of PROFORDEMS to SEP’s Academic Development
Unit.
Means of Verification: Evidenced by the Oficio No. 0142,
dated February 17, 2011 issued by SEMS.
SEP and INEE entered
into partnership agreements with some
states to disseminate
results from the
National Evaluation
System.
Means of Verification:
Copies of agreements
between SEP, INEE and
the states.
SEP has developed a
policy for training part-
time public teachers.
Means of Verification:
Reglas de Operacion for training program for
part-time teachers.
SEP has developed a
mechanism to officially
recognize alternative
training programs.
Means of Verification:
Decreto or Acuerdo
detailing equivalency
process.
58
Key Issues and Reform Actions
undertaken prior to 2009
Prior Actions for DPL 1
(April 2010)
Prior Actions for DPL 2
(December 2011)
Proposed Triggers for DPL 3
(December 2013)
SEMS has introduced a framework
for the competitive selection of
school directors and it has begun
the process of competitive selection
in federal schools. (First
implemented in Dec. 4, 2007
Means of Verification: Execution
agreement celebrated between SEP,
ANUIES and CONALEP dated
January 27, 2009 and a letter dated
March 19, 2010 from SEP’s Coordinator of Academic
Development (in SEP’s Under
Ministry for Upper Secondary
Education) detailing the amount of
teachers that have been certified in
each State.
The Government has created a
civil association (COPEEMS) to
evaluate the entry of schools in the
National Upper Secondary
Education System.
Means of Verification: Agreement
No. 3 from the Comité Directivo del
SNB which creates COPEEMS
In order to establish clear rules regarding equal
opportunity for all schools to join the National Upper
Secondary Education System, the Executive
Committee for the National Upper Secondary
Education System, has approved a modification of the
rules which govern the school accreditation system. Means of Verification: Evidenced by the Agreement No.
12/CD/2011 dated August 19, 2011, issued by the
Executive Committee.
59
Key Issues and Reform Actions
undertaken prior to 2009
Prior Actions for DPL 1
(April 2010)
Prior Actions for DPL 2
(December 2011)
Proposed Triggers for DPL 3
(December 2013)
3. Reducing Opportunity Cost of Upper Secondary Education
Key Issue: High real and perceived opportunity cost of upper secondary education is preventing students from poorer strata of society from completing education
and thus improving their labor market prospects for the future.
The Government has consolidated
its scholarship program targeting
poor students who are not covered by the Oportunidades Program or
by any other scholarship program.
Means of Verification: SEP
Agreement 479 published in the
Official Gazette on December 31,
2008.
In order to expand the coverage of the SIGUELE
Program at the State level, SEP, has established the
guidelines to implement the SIGUELE Program at the State level, including the provision of technical support
to the States to implement said program.
Means of Verification: Evidenced by the State
Agreements.
SEP carries out an
evaluation of SIGUELE.
Means of Verification:
Copy of evaluation
report.
Mexico has developed a
policy framework that
assures universal EMS.
Means of Verification:
Copy of policy
framework.
60
Table 2: Expected Results of the Mexico MUSE DPL Series
Expected output at end of DPL
1 (December 2010)
Actual output at end of
DPL I (June 2011)
Expected output at end of
DPL 2 (November 2013)
Expected output at end of
DPL 3 (November 2014)
Program Outcomes (Intermediate, and at the End of
Program)
1. Improving Flexibility of the National Upper Secondary Education System
CBC implemented in at least 50 percent of all federal schools.
Means of verification: SEP.
The MCC of the CBC was adopted in all federal
systems, 3 (of 31) state
systems, 12 (of 27)
autonomous university systems, and 1 private
system.
The four service providers (federal, state, autonomous
university and private)
have adopted the complete
CBC. Means of verification:
SEP.
The complete CBC has been adopted by all state and
autonomous university
systems participating in the
SNB.
Means of verification: SEP.
Improved flexibility in upper secondary education:
(1) Percent of the upper secondary schools that
accept student transfers and validate
equivalencies. Baseline: Less than 10 percent. Intermediate: 25 percent. End of program:
40 percent
Means of verification: SEP
2. Enhancing Quality and Relevance of the National Upper Secondary Education System
A school evaluation system for
entry in the SNB is operating.
Means of verification:
COPEEMS.
Mexico has implemented its first
sample-based assessment (EXCALE) for 12th grade.
Means of Verification:
INEE.
120,000 teachers have
completed their training in
PROFORDEMS.
Means of verification: Official
registries at PROFORDEMS.
The school evaluation
system was operating, fully
staffed and had trained 465 external evaluators from 15
evaluation organizations.
The standards for
accreditation had been agreed.
The first EXCALE for 12th
grade, covering writing and citizenship, had been
implemented.
49,896 teachers have
graduated; 97,869 teachers
had enrolled in PROFORDEMS training.
INEE published, in 2011, a
report with 2009 data.
COPEEMS has evaluated
at least 100 schools.
Means of verification:
COPEEMS.
The publication by INEE
of the EXCALE results.
Means of verification:
INEE publication
120,000 teachers have
enrolled in
PRODORDEMS training.
Means of verification:
Official registries at
PROFORDEMS.
COPEEMS has made
accreditation decisions for at
least 300 schools.
Means of verification:
COPEEMS.
Mexico has implemented its
second sample-based assessment (EXCALE) for
12th grade.
180,000 teachers have
enrolled in PROFORDEMS
training.
Means of verification:
Official registries at
PROFORDEMS.
Improved quality and relevance in upper secondary
education:
(2) Reduction in dropout rate in EMS. Baseline:
41.7 percent in 2008. Intermediate: 33 to 35
percent. End of program: 33.0 percent
Means of verification : SEP
(3) The percentage of students scoring in the
categories good or excellent in ENLACE
assessment in Spanish (Baseline: 52.3 percent
in 2008. Intermediate: 59.0 percent. End of
program: 63 percent) and Mathematics
(Baseline: 15.6 percent in 2008. Intermediate:
28 percent. End of program: 35 percent)
Means of verification : SEP
Expected output at end of DPL
1 (December 2010)
Actual output at end of
DPL I (June 2011)
Expected output at end of
DPL 2 (March 2013)
Expected output at end of
DPL 3 (March 2014) Program Outcomes (Intermediate, and at the End of
Program)
61
Based on the new assessment
instruments and existing
administrative data, INEE
publishes for the first time the Indicadores del Sistema de
Educación Media Superior.
Means of Verification: Administrative records.
3. Reducing Opportunity Cost of Upper Secondary Education
The number of scholarships has
increased from 280,000 to
320,000 in upper secondary
education for the 2009-10 school year.
Means of Verification:
Administrative records.
SEMS has initiated a comprehensive evaluation study
of the scholarship program.
Means of Verification: Terms of reference and progress reports.
426,642 upper secondary
education scholarships had
been awarded for the 2009-
10 school year.
SEMS initiated a comprehensive Impact
Evaluation by discussing the
draft TOR with the National
Evaluation Council (CONEVAL).
Starting from a baseline of
0 in July 2011, the number
of states participating in
SIGUELE is at least 19.
Means of Verification:
Signed agreements
between the federal government and state
governments.
The number of upper
secondary scholarships has
increased to 500,000 for the
2013-14 school year.
Means of verification:
Official registries at
PROBEMS and ENIGH.
Reduced opportunity cost of upper secondary
education::
(4) Increased completion rates in upper secondary education. Baseline: 47 percent in 2008 for
lowest quintile. Intermediate: 50 percent. End
of program: 52 percent for lowest quintile.
Means of verification: ENIGH
(5) Transition from lower to upper secondary
school. Baseline: 57 percent in 2008 for lowest quintile. Intermediate: 63 percent. End of
program: 64 percent for lowest quintile.
Means of Verification: ENIGH
62
ANNEX 3: FUND RELATIONS NOTE
IMF Executive Board Completes Review of Mexico’s Performance Under the Flexible Credit Line Press Release No. 11/480 December 22, 2011
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed on December 21,
2011, its review of Mexico’s qualification for the arrangement under the Flexible Credit Line
(FCL) and reaffirmed Mexico’s continued qualification to access FCL resources. The Mexican
authorities have indicated that they intend to continue treating the arrangement as
precautionary.
The two year arrangement for Mexico for SDR 47.292 billion (about US$73 billion), approved
in January 10, 2011 (see Press Release No. 11/4), was the first under the reforms to the FCL
approved in August 30, 2010 (see Press Release No. 10/321).
Following the Executive Board discussion of Mexico, Mr. David Lipton, First Deputy Managing
Director and Acting Chairman of the Board, made the following statement:
“The Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement for Mexico, approved a year ago in a context of
heightened risks to the global economic outlook, has played an important role in supporting
the authorities’ overall macroeconomic strategy, providing an insurance against global tail
risks and bolstering market confidence. Today, the Executive Board reaffirmed that Mexico
continues to meet the qualification criteria for access to FCL resources.
“Mexico’s rapid rebound from the global crisis and the resilience of economic activity in recent
months bear witness to Mexico’s sound fundamentals and skillful policy management. The
strong policy track record and frameworks, including a balanced-budget rule, a credible
inflation targeting regime, and prudent financial oversight, have underpinned sound public
and private balance sheets.
“The authorities are committed to rebuilding policy buffers gradually in light of heightened
global risks. Fiscal consolidation and supportive monetary policy are poised to be maintained,
while the increase in external buffers is being complemented by the FCL arrangement. The
floating exchange rate regime will continue to play a key role in buffering external shocks.
“Downside risks to Mexico’s near-term outlook arise from unsettled global growth prospects
and the turbulence in international financial markets. However, Mexico retains policy space to
contain the potential fallout from external shocks, supported by the FCL arrangement, and
the authorities remain committed to the rules-based macroeconomic framework and to adjust
policies as needed,” Mr. Lipton said.
IMF EXTERNAL RELATIONS DEPARTMENT
Public Affairs
Media Relations
E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 202-623-7100
Fax: 202-623-6278 Fax: 202-623-6772
The IMF Staff Report for Mexico on the Review Under the Flexible Credit Line
Arrangement is available at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11367.pdf
63
ANNEX 4: COUNTRY AT A GLANCE
64
65
Citlaltépetl (5,747 m) Citlaltépetl (5,747 m)
Si e r r a
Ma
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c c i d e n t a l
S ierra Madre del Sur
Si e
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CAMPECHECAMPECHE
CHIAPASCHIAPAS
TABASCOTABASCO
OAXACAOAXACA
GUERREROGUERRERO
COLIMACOLIMA
JALISCOJALISCO
NAYARITNAYARIT
ZACATECASZACATECAS
TAMAULIPASTAMAULIPAS
NUEVONUEVOLEONLEON
C O A H U I L AC O A H U I L A
C H I H U A H U AC H I H U A H U ASONORASONORA
D U R A N G OD U R A N G O
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QUINTANAQUINTANAROOROO
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TorreónTorreónMatamorosMatamoros
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OjinagaOjinaga
Los MochisLos Mochis
NavojoaNavojoa
NogalesNogalesSanSan
FelipeFelipe
LoretoLoreto
SonoitaSonoita
AguaAguaPrietaPrieta
GuaymasGuaymas
TehuantepecTehuantepec
FronteraFrontera
VillahermosaVillahermosa
TuxtlaTuxtlaGutierrezGutierrez
OaxacaOaxaca
ChilpancingoChilpancingo
ColimaColima
GuadalajaraGuadalajara
TepicTepic
DurangoDurango
SaltílloSaltíllo
ChihuahuaChihuahua
CuliacánCuliacán
HermosilloHermosillo
MexicaliMexicali
GuanajuatoGuanajuato
PachucaPachuca
AguascalientesAguascalientes
QuerétaroQuerétaro
MoreliaMoreliaTolucaToluca
CuernavacaCuernavaca PueblaPuebla
TlaxcalaTlaxcala
JalapaJalapa
San LuisSan LuisPotosíPotosí
CiudadCiudadVictóriaVictória
ZacatecasZacatecas
MonterreyMonterrey
MEXICOMEXICOCITYCITY
Yaqui
Rio Bravo
Fuerte
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Lerma
Balsas
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BAJABAJACALIFORNIACALIFORNIA
BAJABAJACALIFORNIACALIFORNIA
SURSUR
MEXICOMEXICO
MORELOSMORELOS
DISTRITO FEDERALDISTRITO FEDERAL
HIDALGOHIDALGOGUANAJUATOGUANAJUATO
AGUASCALIENTESAGUASCALIENTES
TLAXCALATLAXCALA
QUERÉTAROQUERÉTARO
Usuummacinta Rio Grande
GUATEMALAGUATEMALATapachula
PuertoEscondido
Acapulco
Puerto Vallarta
Mazatlán
TorreónMatamoros
Laredo
Ojinaga
Los Mochis
Navojoa
Nogales
Ensanada
Tijuana
SanFelipe
SantaRosalia
Loreto
Cabo San Lucas
Sonoita
AguaPrieta
Ciudad Juárez
Guaymas
Veracruz
Tampico
Tehuantepec
Cozumel
Cancun
Frontera
Chetumal
Merida
Villahermosa
Campeche
TuxtlaGutierrez
Oaxaca
Chilpancingo
Colima
Guadalajara
Tepic
Durango
Saltíllo
Chihuahua
Culiacán
Hermosillo
Mexicali
La Paz
Guanajuato
Pachuca
Aguascalientes
Querétaro
MoreliaToluca
Cuernavaca Puebla
Tlaxcala
Jalapa
San LuisPotosí
CiudadVictória
Zacatecas
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MEXICOCITY
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MORELOS
DISTRITO FEDERAL
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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
GUATEMALA
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Yaqui
Rio Grande
Rio Bravo
Fuerte
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Lerma
Balsas
Usumacinta
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PACIFICOCEAN
Gulf of Mexico
Bay of Campeche
Gulf ofTehuantepec
Gulf of
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Gu
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To Los Angeles
To Gila Bend
To Albuquerque
To Alamogordo
To Midland
To San Antonio
To San Antonio
To Houston
To San Salvador
Si e r r a
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S ierra Madre del Sur
Si e
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Citlaltépetl (5,747 m)
115°W
30°N30°N
25°N
15°N
25°N
20°N
15°N
110°W
110°W
105°W 100°W 95°W 90°W
105°W 100°W 95°W
85°W
MEXICO
This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other informationshown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World BankGroup, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or anyendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
0 100 200
0 50 100 150 200 Miles
300 Kilometers IBRD 33447R
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MEXICOSELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS
STATE CAPITALS
NATIONAL CAPITAL
RIVERS
MAIN ROADS
RAILROADS
STATE BOUNDARIES
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES