"Forces of change in world tourism. The role of governments, enterprises and the need for p-p partnerships" Carlos Vogeler Chairman Affiliate Members UNWTO The importance of Travel & Tourism 12% of international consumer spending 10.3 % of world gross domestic product (GDP) 234 million jobs (1 in 12 jobs, 8.2 % of total world employment) The economic significance and potential of Travel & Tourism is particularly prominent in the developing world Most new jobs in developing economies are created in tourism industries Diversifies economic activity and enables the creation of wealth and jobs in rural areas Positive effects in the balance of payments for inbound countries Multiplier effect in the economy impacting other sectors World Tourism in Million International Tourist Arrivals + 4.9% over 2005 US $ 735 billion International Tourism Receipts + 4.5% over 2005 ( US$ 883 billion,including International transportation) Average receipts per arrival: US$ 870 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Domestic Tourism: Estimated 5 times more than international (no reliable data available) Sustainable growth Source: United Nations World Tourism Organization Evolution of International Tourism arrivals and receipts (1995 2006) Worlds market share (%) Americas ITA: 136 million (16%) ITR: US$ 145 billion (21%) Africa ITA: 40 million (5%) ITR: US$ 22 billion (3%) Europe ITA: 458 million (54%) ITR: US$ 348 billion (51%) Middle East ITA: 41 million (5%) ITR: US$ 28 bn (4%) Asia and the Pacific ITA: 167 million (20%) ITR: US$ 139 billion (21%) International Tourist Arrivals (ITA), million International Tourism Receipts (ITR), 2006 US$ 735 billion Source: World Tourism Organization # 17 Greece: 14,4 million Top Outbound Countries 2006 Source: World Tourism Organization World Total Expenditure: US$ 735 billion World regions depend mostly of intra-regional tourism Volatility and Resilience Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia 11S Iraq, SARS Source: World Tourism Organization echo of the second oil crisis / martial law in Poland / Falklands conflict / conflict Israel- Lebanon Recovery The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2007 Furthering the Process of Economic Development Growth to be maintained through 2008 IMF economic growth projection of 4.9% for 2007 and th consecutive year of growth above the long-term average. Developing economies to continue growth above average ( 7.5% in 2007 and 7.1% in 2008) Slowdown of the US economy in Q 1 unlikely to spill over into other regions Germany and UK strong domestic demand Activity in emerging Asia continues to expand, led by very strong growth in both China and India Increase in interest rates Source: World Tourism Organization Estimated average growth : 4.1% a year Source: UNWTO 2020 International Tourism Projections International Arrivals: 1,6 billion (X 2) Receipts: US $ 2 trillion (X 3) Base YearForecasts Average annual growth rate (%) Africa Americas East Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East South Asia World Forecasts by Receiving Region International Tourist Arrivals, (Million) Market share (%) Source: UNWTO 1China 2France 3United States 4Spain 5Hong Kong (China) 6United Kingdom 7Italy 8Mexico 9Russian Fed. 10Czech Rep. Country Tourist arrivals (Million) Average annual growth rate (%) Market share (%) Source: UNWTO Worlds Top Destinations 2020 Worlds Top Outbound Countries Germany 2Japan 3United States 4China 5United Kingdom 6France 7Netherlands 8Italy 9Canada 10Russian Fed Country Total arrivals generated worldwide (Million) Market share (%) 40% Source: UNWTO New trends in Travel & Tourism Still huge potential for growth to exploit from current travellers and from new emerging middle classes sizable populations currently still only take part in international tourism very limitedly Many emerging economies show rapid economic growth with increasing disposable incomes, that will be spent on tourism In addition to traditional source markets (Western Europe, USA, Canada, Japan,), alternative ones (Central and Eastern Europe, China, India, Korea, Singapore, Middle East, Mexico, Brazil, etc.) Consumer profile and behaviour More mature and experienced travellers Increased concern for safety and security Access to much more information Consumers know what they want and what they can get Aging population Better health and economic conditions Seek new experiences and innovative more sophisticated products Added value and services. Value for money Shift in power from producers to consumers Increased competition More direct distribution Need to develop and apply new technologies Public-private partnerships Close synergy of interests Among business; civil society; government Private sector, the engine in wealth creation, involved in telecommunications, education, health, safety, etc. Corporate responsibility Companies support community development: environmental protection and enhancement; cultural and heritage preservation Changing Public sector Need to reinvent itself More strategic approach to its role in society Foster trust that creates social capital Public-private partnerships Governments have played a key role in the developing of tourism They need to give more space to the private sector Many areas in which P-P sectors can work Marketing Control and monitoring of regulation Quality factors Education Investment Infrastructure Research, development and innovation Climate change Sustainability Tourism policy, etc. Public-private partnerships Tourism dpts in government depend on many other areas, not under their control Interior; culture & education, economy, foreign affairs, health, infrastructure, environment, transportation, etc. Too many changes in Ministerial departments do not allow for continuity and stability The private sector brings a closer look to the reality of the marketplace Good luck, bad luck. Who knows? "Forces of change in world tourism. The role of governments, enterprises and the need for p-p partnerships" Carlos Vogeler Chairman Affiliate Members UNWTO