forecast application - national oceanic and atmospheric ... · • forecast application work 2 ....
TRANSCRIPT
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AGU Annual Meeting December 7, 2011
Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
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Forecast Application
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Outline
• River Forecast Center overview • Forecast application work
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Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) generates streamflow forecasts across the Colorado and Utah. The latest forecasts, data, and more are available online: – Daily streamflow forecasts – Long lead peak flow forecasts – Water supply forecasts – Webinar briefings – Email updates – And More….
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov
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Flow
Time
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
Future
Now
Past
Low chance of this level flow or higher
High chance of this level flow or higher
Medium chance of this level flow or higher
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April – July
Volume
ESP Analysis
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ESP from wateroutlook
6 Source: wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov
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ESP from wateroutlook
7 Source: wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov
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8 Source: wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov
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9 Source: wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov
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ESP Output
ESP output increasingly available for stakeholders
• AHPS pages • Wateroutlook pages • Experimental RFC
websites • “Raw” ESP output used
by some water management agencies to optimize operations
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RFC ESP Forecasts
Reservoir Management
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Forecast Application
Previous research and personal experience show forecasts are seldom used
When used, forecasts use is motivated more by risk perception than forecast skill or applicability
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KevinWerner
CBRFCServiceCoordina0onHydrologist
Phone:801.524.5130Email:[email protected]
Feedback,Ques0ons,Concernsalwayswelcome….