forecast taiwan auto demand
DESCRIPTION
DDDTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Forecast Taiwan Auto Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103121/563dbbb1550346aa9aaf7252/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
B A F T
Group 5
Forecast Demand on Automobiles to increase sales for automo9ve company
Anita, Louie Fanny, Paul
![Page 2: Forecast Taiwan Auto Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103121/563dbbb1550346aa9aaf7252/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
I. Business Problem
• Client: an automo3ve company like Suzuki • Business benefit:
– Increase automobile sales – Improve marke3ng efficiency
• Set up suitable marke3ng strategy among regions and seasons
• Challenges: – Consumer preference for brands is not considered (hard to predict)
• Opportunity: Design a beDer marke3ng strategy to decrease cost and increase sales
2
![Page 3: Forecast Taiwan Auto Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103121/563dbbb1550346aa9aaf7252/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
II. Forecas3ng Goal
• Goal: Forecast the demand on automobile in 2015. • Analysis:
Prospec3ve: predict future trend and analyze seasonal paDerns
• The forecasts will be used to set marke3ng strategies and promo3onal plans in 2015
• Forecast horizon: 1 year (12 months)
3
![Page 4: Forecast Taiwan Auto Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103121/563dbbb1550346aa9aaf7252/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
1. Number of automobile – Forecast trend for long-‐term strategy – Source: Ministry of Transporta3on and Communica3ons R.O.C – 2000:12-‐ 2014:08 (165 obs.) – Four largest ci3es: New Taipei, Taipei, Taichung, Kaohsiung – Upward trend
III. Data Descrip3on (1/2)
![Page 5: Forecast Taiwan Auto Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103121/563dbbb1550346aa9aaf7252/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
III. Data Descrip3on (2/2)
5
2. Number of new automobile registra3on – Analyze seasonality for short-‐term strategy – 2012:01~2014:11 (35 obs.) – Four largest ci3es: New Taipei, Taipei, Taichung, Kaohsiung – Seasonality: 6 months
Low in February and August
Peak in January and July!
![Page 6: Forecast Taiwan Auto Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103121/563dbbb1550346aa9aaf7252/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
IV. Methods
1. Number of automobile 1) Double Exponen3al 2) Linear regression 3) Naïve
2. Number of new automobile registra3on 1) Linear regression 2) Holt-‐Winter 3) Seasonal Naïve
• 6 seasons
6
![Page 7: Forecast Taiwan Auto Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103121/563dbbb1550346aa9aaf7252/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Forecast
• Method: Double Exponen3al
The number of automobile is predicted to increase!
7
V. Forecasts and Evalua3on (1/2) -‐ Number of automobile
![Page 8: Forecast Taiwan Auto Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103121/563dbbb1550346aa9aaf7252/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Holt-‐Winter does not capture highs and lows well!
8
Regression has the 2nd lowest RMSE and captures the seasonality well!
Highest in January & July!
Forecast
V. Forecasts and Evalua3on (2/2) -‐ Number of new automobile registra3on
![Page 9: Forecast Taiwan Auto Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103121/563dbbb1550346aa9aaf7252/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
VI. Others: Opportunity for motorcycle sales
• Data: number of motorcycle (2000:12-‐ 2014:08) • The amount of motorcycle dropped sharply in July 2013 • The reduc3on is one-‐3me event due to a policy that
encourage old motorcycle to re3re before October 2013 to waive taxes
Opportunity for motorcycle sales!
9
![Page 10: Forecast Taiwan Auto Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022103121/563dbbb1550346aa9aaf7252/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
VII. Recommenda3ons
1. Increase automobile produc3on 2. Marke3ng strategies for automobile: – Same marke3ng strategies on all regions – Heavy promo3on and adver3sement on January
(near Chinese New Year) and July (students graduate)
3. Opportunity for motorcycle sales to increase – Promo3on on motorcycles
(e.g. discount on purchasing automobile with motorcycle)
10