forecast working group « apples and pears » 10/03/2008 european commission – dg agri – unit...
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3 I.1. Data on apples and pears prices - more detailed Details by main varieties Details by representative markets NB: It is not always appropriate to compare prices in different MS as they may have chosen different methodology to record prices pursuant to Regulation 877/2004.TRANSCRIPT
Forecast working group « Apples and pears »
10/03/2008
European Commission – DG AGRI – Unit C.2
2
OutlineI. New elements in the statistical working documents.
1. Data on prices – more detailed.
2. Data on trade – switching from EU evolutionary to EU 27 simulated (COMEXT data).
II. EU imports of fresh apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia.
3
I.1. Data on apples and pears prices - more detailed
Details by main varieties Details by representative markets
NB: It is not always appropriate to compare prices in different MS as they may have chosen different methodology to record prices pursuant to Regulation 877/2004.
4
Old way of presenting prices in the DTR – one average price per MS including all varieties and markets
GRAPHIQUE 5.1 : Prix à la production - Italie (€/100 kg)
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
2000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/08
5
New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by individual variety on main EU markets
Graph 5.22: Prix à la production de pommes - Gala Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
juil
05ao
ût 0
5se
pt 0
5oc
t 05
nov
05dé
c 05
janv
06
févr
06
mar
s 06
avr 0
6m
ai 0
6ju
in 0
6ju
il 06
août
06
sept
06
oct 0
6no
v 06
déc
06ja
nv 0
7fé
vr 0
7m
ars
07av
r 07
mai
07
juin
07
juil
07ao
ût 0
7se
pt 0
7oc
t 07
nov
07dé
c 07
janv
08
févr
08
mar
s 08
avr 0
8m
ai 0
8ju
in 0
8
€/10
0kg
AT (Gleisdorf)
BE (Sint Truiden)
DE (Niedersachsen)
ES (Girona)
ES (Lleida)
FR (Rhône-Méditarranée)
FR (Sud-Ouest)
FR (Val de Loire)
HU (Budapest)
IT (Bolzano)
NL(Geldermalsen)
PL (Lubelsko-Sandomierski)PL (Grojecko-Warecki)
PT (Oeste)
6
New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by individual variety on main EU markets
Graph 5.23: Prix à la production de pommes - Golden Delicious Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
€/10
0kg
AT (Gleisdorf)
BE (Sint Truiden)
DE (Niedersachsen)
ES (Girona)
ES (Lleida)
FR (Rhône-Méditarranée)
FR (Val de Loire)
HU (Budapest)
IT (Bolzano)
NL (Geldermalsen)
PL (Lubelsko-Sandomierski)
PL (Grojecko-Warecki)
PT (Oeste)
7
New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by separate varieties in individual MS
Graph 5.35: Prix à la production de pommes pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) IT - Italie
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Elstar
Gala
Golden Delicious
Granny Smith
Jonagold
Red Delicious
8
New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by separate varieties in individual MS
Graph 5.34: Prix à la production de pommes pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) FR - France
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Elstar
Gala
Golden Delicious
Granny Smith
9
New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by separate varieties in individual MS
Graph 5.31: Prix à la production de pommes pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) BE - Belgique
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Elstar
Gala
Golden Delicious
Granny Smith
Idared
Jonagold
Red Delicious
10
Graph 5.13: Prix à la production de poires - Conférence Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
€/10
0kg
BE (Sint Truiden)
ES (Lleida)
ES (Zaragoza)
FR (Angers)
FR (Valence)
HU (Budapest)
IT (Ferrera)
IT (Modena)
NL (Geldermalsen)
PL (Grojecko-Warecki)
11
Graph 5.14: Prix à la production de poires - Doyenné du Comice Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
€/10
0kg
BE (Sint Truiden)
ES (Lleida)
FR (Angers)
FR (Avignon)
FR (Valence)
IT (Ferrera)
IT (Modena)
NL (Geldermalsen)
12
Graph 5.22: Prix à la production de poires pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) ES - Espagne
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
90,00
Abate FételBlanquillaConférenceDoyonné du ComiceWilliams (Bon Chrétien)
13
Graph 5.24: Prix à la production de poires pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) IT - Italie
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
140,00
Abate FételConférenceDoyonné du ComiceWilliams (Bon Chrétien)
14
2. Data on trade – switching from EU evolutionary to EU 27 simulated
The simulation disregards the date on which MS joined the EU (data available from 1999 onwards);
Extra EU 27 trade excludes the quantities exchanged between old and new MS but includes new MS’s trade with third countries;
Intra EU 27 trade includes the quantities traded between all 27 MS.
15
Extra EU trade in fresh apples - EU 27 simulated (T)
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
1.000.000
1.100.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Imports EU 27simulated
Exports EU 27simulated
Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)
16
EU imports of fresh apples (T)
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Imports EUevolutionary
Imports EU 27simulated
17
EU exports of fresh apples (T)
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
1.000.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Exports EUevolutionary
Exports EU 27simulated
18
II. EU imports of fresh apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia
19
Extra EU imports of fresh table apples (T)
Share in total2007
New Zealand 220.032 178.240 177.161 -0,6% 19,8%Chile 225.465 224.645 204.113 -9,1% 22,8%South Africa 156.842 151.872 158.379 4,3% 17,7%Argentina 121.536 97.640 107.248 9,8% 12,0%USA 39.857 30.600 28.610 -6,5% 3,2%Brazil 88.323 53.456 104.403 95,3% 11,6%Canada 5.558 4.460 2.083 -53,3% 0,2%Australia 2.136 2.940 1.294 -56,0% 0,1%Switzerland 690 971 2.324 139,4% 0,3%
FJR Macedonia 8.294 24.146 33.689 39,5% 3,8% Serbia 306 282 24.597 8637,8% 2,7% Croatia 9 18 2.723 15284,2% 0,3%Turkey 551 607 230 -62,1% 0,0%Uruguay 6.662 3.596 6.174 71,7% 0,7%China 50.408 33.649 42.063 25,0% 4,7%Iran 217 322 174 -46,0% 0,0%South Korea 0 0 - Namibia 21 0 - Autres 3.926 6.974 1.280 -81,6% 0,1%TOTAL 930.831 814.417 896.543 10,1% 100,0%Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)
2005 2006 2007 07/06
20
Share of hemispheres in total EU imports of table apples
2005 2006 2007South Hemisphere 88,2% 87,5% 84,6%North Hemisphere 11,8% 12,5% 15,4%
Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)
21
Extra EU imports of fresh table apples by hemisphere (T)
Share in total2007
Hémisph. Sud 821.017 712.389 758.771 6,5% 100,0%New Zealand 220.032 178.240 177.161 -0,6% 23,3%Chile 225.465 224.645 204.113 -9,1% 26,9%South Africa 156.842 151.872 158.379 4,3% 20,9%Argentina 121.536 97.640 107.248 9,8% 14,1%Brazil 88.323 53.456 104.403 95,3% 13,8%Australia 2.136 2.940 1.294 -56,0% 0,2%Uruguay 6.662 3.596 6.174 71,7% 0,8%
Share in total2007
Hémisph. Nord 109.814 102.028 137.772 35,0% 100,0%USA 39.857 30.600 28.610 -6,5% 20,8%Canada 5.558 4.460 2.083 -53,3% 1,5%China 50.408 33.649 42.063 25,0% 30,5%Switzerland 690 971 2.324 139,4% 1,7%
FJR Macedonia 8.294 24.146 33.689 39,5% 24,5% Serbia 306 282 24.597 8637,9% 17,9% Croatia 9 18 2.723 15282,5% 2,0%Turkey 551 607 230 -62,2% 0,2%Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)
2005 2006 2007 07/06
2005 2006 2007 07/06
22
EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia (T)
PartnerDeclarant/period 2005 2006 2007 2007/06 2005 2006 2007 2007/06
France 0 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands 0 0 0 0 0 0Fr Germany 0 0 0 0 0 0Italy 0 0 0 0 0 0Utd. Kingdom 0 0 0 0 0 0Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0Denmark 37 5 0 -100% 0 0 0Greece 75 258 899 249% 0 0 0Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0Spain 0 0 0 0 0 0Belgium 0 0 0 0 0 0Luxembourg 0 0 0 0 0 0Sweden 3 0 5 0 1 0 -100%Finland 0 0 0 0 0 0Austria 0 0 0 111 0 333Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0Estonia 0 0 0 0 0 0Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 0Lithuania 0 0 0 0 0 0Poland 0 0 455 0 0 19.177Czech Republic 0 0 0 11 0 266Slovakia 0 0 898 0 0 109Hungary 0 0 1.534 0 0 4.321Romania 81 9.428 7.253 -23% 155 0 264Bulgaria 8.098 14.456 22.869 58% 0 194 410 112%Slovenia 0 0 10 28 87 21 -76%Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 0EU-27 8.294 24.146 33.923 40% 306 282 24.901 8746%
Source: COMEXT (EU-27 simulated)* Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006
For.JRep. Macedonia Serbia*
23
EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from Serbia and FJR Macedonia (T)
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
Sep
. 200
4O
ct. 2
004
Nov
. 200
4D
ec. 2
004
Jan.
200
5Fe
b. 2
005
Mar
. 200
5A
pr. 2
005
May
. 200
5Ju
n. 2
005
Jul.
2005
Aug
. 200
5S
ep. 2
005
Oct
. 200
5N
ov. 2
005
Dec
. 200
5Ja
n. 2
006
Feb.
200
6M
ar. 2
006
Apr
. 200
6M
ay. 2
006
Jun.
200
6Ju
l. 20
06A
ug. 2
006
Sep
. 200
6O
ct. 2
006
Nov
. 200
6D
ec. 2
006
Jan.
200
7Fe
b. 2
007
Mar
. 200
7A
pr. 2
007
May
. 200
7Ju
n. 2
007
Jul.
2007
Aug
. 200
7S
ep. 2
007
Oct
. 200
7N
ov. 2
007
Dec
. 200
7
FJR Macedonia
Serbia*
Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated); *Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006
24
EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from FJR Macedonia
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
Sep
. 200
4O
ct. 2
004
Nov
. 200
4D
ec. 2
004
Jan.
200
5Fe
b. 2
005
Mar
. 200
5A
pr. 2
005
May
. 200
5Ju
n. 2
005
Jul.
2005
Aug
. 200
5S
ep. 2
005
Oct
. 200
5N
ov. 2
005
Dec
. 200
5Ja
n. 2
006
Feb.
200
6M
ar. 2
006
Apr
. 200
6M
ay. 2
006
Jun.
200
6Ju
l. 20
06A
ug. 2
006
Sep
. 200
6O
ct. 2
006
Nov
. 200
6D
ec. 2
006
Jan.
200
7Fe
b. 2
007
Mar
. 200
7A
pr. 2
007
May
. 200
7Ju
n. 2
007
Jul.
2007
Aug
. 200
7S
ep. 2
007
Oct
. 200
7N
ov. 2
007
Dec
. 200
7
T
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
€/kg
imports - T
unit value -€/kg
Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)
25
EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from Serbia*
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
Sep
. 200
4O
ct. 2
004
Nov
. 200
4D
ec. 2
004
Jan.
200
5Fe
b. 2
005
Mar
. 200
5A
pr. 2
005
May
. 200
5Ju
n. 2
005
Jul.
2005
Aug
. 200
5S
ep. 2
005
Oct
. 200
5N
ov. 2
005
Dec
. 200
5Ja
n. 2
006
Feb.
200
6M
ar. 2
006
Apr
. 200
6M
ay. 2
006
Jun.
200
6Ju
l. 20
06A
ug. 2
006
Sep
. 200
6O
ct. 2
006
Nov
. 200
6D
ec. 2
006
Jan.
200
7Fe
b. 2
007
Mar
. 200
7A
pr. 2
007
May
. 200
7Ju
n. 2
007
Jul.
2007
Aug
. 200
7S
ep. 2
007
Oct
. 200
7N
ov. 2
007
Dec
. 200
7
T
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
€/kg
imports - T
unit value -€/kg
Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated); *Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006
26
EU-27 imports of fresh cider apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia (T)
PartnerDeclarant/period 2005 2006 2007 2007/06 2005 2006 2007 2007/06
France 0 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands 0 0 0 0 0 0Fr Germany 0 0 0 61 1.224 606 -51%Italy 0 0 0 0 0 118Utd. Kingdom 0 0 0 0 0 0Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0Denmark 0 0 0 0 0 0Greece 0 1 0 -100% 0 0 0Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0Spain 0 0 0 0 0 0Belgium 0 0 0 0 0 0Luxembourg 0 0 0 0 0 0Sweden 5 0 0 0 0 0Finland 0 0 0 0 0 0Austria 0 0 482 0 0 250Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0Estonia 0 0 0 0 0 0Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 0Lithuania 0 0 0 0 0 0Poland 0 0 42 0 0 128Czech Republic 0 0 0 0 0 0Slovakia 0 0 311 0 0 0Hungary 0 0 2.739 1.257 0 13.796Romania 0 0 0 0 0 0Bulgaria 2.552 5.582 5.501 -1% 0 0 297Slovenia 0 0 0 0 0 70Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 0EU-27 2.557 5.583 9.076 63% 1.318 1.224 15.264 1147%Source: COMEXT (EU-27 simulated)* Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006
FJR Macedonia Serbia*