forecasting 1 linkages how much we are going to sell is obviously important to marketing forecasts...
Post on 20-Dec-2015
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Forecasting 1
Linkages
• How much we are going to sell is obviously important to marketing
• Forecasts help us to plan investments - or to determine if an investment is a good idea
• Forecasts tell us if we will have to hire new people and or train our existing people in new skills
• Technological forecasts might indicate the need to change our MIS function
Forecasting 2
Forecasts as part of planning
• How much demand we are going to have leads to a number of other questions
– large demand for standard products: line flow
– demand for custom products: jumbled flow
– demand leads to capacity
– demand indicates when we schedule work
– etc.
• In other words a forecast is one of the first things we need when planning – for the long term and the short term.
Forecasting 3
Why do forecasts matter ?
• People: If we do a bad job forecasting demand we may not have the right number (or type) of people on hand.
• Capacity: If we under forecast we will not be able to make enough stuff (lost sales) over forecasting will result in expensive wasted capacity.
• Supply chain: Our suppliers are also dependent on our forecasts:– What if we have them build stuff based on an
erroneously high forecast?
Forecasting 4
Characteristics of forecasts
• Short term: Less than a year– quantitative– can be very accurate– dis-aggregated
• Long term: More than a year– often very qualitative– much harder to be accurate– generally aggregated
Forecasting 5
Types of forecasts
• Economic: What is happening in the world, country, state, and locality. Aggregated across companies and usually industries.– ISM index– The federal reserve
• Technological: changes in technology that may change products and / or processes– BW survey of research labs
• Demand: Sales of our company’s products - often driven (partially) by economic and technological.
Forecasting 6
Quantitative verses Qualitative
• When numbers do not exist and or are inaccurate we can use qualitative methods (long term forecasts especially)– delphi methods– market research– the “gut”
• Most people want to use numbers– why?– is this always best?
• See readings on methods people do choose- and what would be best.
Forecasting 7
Forecasting demand
• There are 5 components of demand:– Average demand – not in book– Trends– Cyclicality– Seasonality – Random factors
• What should we be able to forecast ?
Forecasting 8
Trend
Sales of Dallas Cowboys Paraphernalia
Volume
Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 - projected
Forecasting 9
Seasonality
Beverage sales at the 6 pac shop
MON
TUS
WEN
TUR
FRI
SAT
SUN
MON
Forecasting 10
Seasonality 2
Umbrella sales
Summer
Summer
Fall
Fall
Winter
Winter
Spring
Spring
Forecasting 11
Cyclicality
The business cycle– Where are we in the business cycle?– to forecast the end of a period of growth what
signs would you look for?• What do you think Greenspan looks for?
Forecasting 12
Determining the quality of a forecast
Forecast error = demand - forecast
negative errors indicate ?
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Mean percentage deviation (MAPE)
n
errorsMAD
n
100%*demand
error
MAPE
n
1i i
i
Forecasting 13
Determining the quality of a forecast 2
• Why don’t we use the average deviation?
• What does the MAPE tell us that the MAD does not ?– can we compare the MADS for two different
products ? – can we use MAD to compare the same
forecasting method in a variety of situations ?
• We also want to examine BiasBias
Forecasting 14
MAD / MAPE example
Forecasting 15
A quick aside
• The forecasting tools we are going to use are generally basic and fairly simple.
– See the articles I placed on the web- this is what people use
– Regression is “to fancy” for many managers
• Our goal is to find the method that best fits our pattern of demand- no one right tool
Forecasting 16
Actual forecasting tools
• The simplest method: the naive forecast– this period’s demand = last period’s demand– when is this acceptable ?
• Time series methods: future demand is predicted from past (historical) demand.– moving averages
• simple and weighted
– exponential smoothing
Forecasting 17
Moving averages
• A simple tool to predict demand when it is safe to assume that over time demand is fairly stable (change is slow).
• A 3 period moving average:
• A five period moving average:
5
54321 tttttt
DDDDDF
Forecasting 18
Moving average example
Period Demand 3 period MA
5 period MA
1 15
2 12
3 13
4 17 13.33
5 19 14
6 18 16.33 15.2
7 20 18 16.2
Forecasting 19
Weighted moving averages
• Moving averages work fine when the world is fairly stable - but what if our world is changing ?
• Weighted moving averages (WMA) - place more weight on recent events (why) .
• WMA = (Σ (weight period n) (demand in period n)) / Σ weights
• Determining weights is an art - generally do not weight most recent period more than 50%.
Forecasting 20
AWMA example:Weights 5,3,2
Period Demand Forecast 1 15 2 18 3 26 4 35 ((15*2)+(18*3)+(26*5)) / 10 =21.4
5 32 28.9 6 36 31.7 7 38 34.6 8 40 36.2
Forecasting 21
Exponential smoothing
• Exponential smoothing is a very popular (and simple) form of the weighted moving average.
• Basic form:
• What happens as the smoothing constant increases ?
)( 11 ttt EFF
Forecasting 22
Exponential smoothing: examples• smoothing constant = .2
period demand forecast
1 25 21
2 24 21+.2(4) = 21.8
3 21.8+.2(2.2) = 22.24
• smoothing constant = .5period demand forecast
1 25 21
2 24 21+.5(4) = 23
3 23+.5(1) = 23.5
Forecasting 23
Seasonality
• Because seasonality is a pattern we can predict it using indices.
• For example:
yearly demand = 800 units
indices:spring = .85 summer = 1.46 fall = .76 winter = .93
– F spring = 200 * .85 = 170
– F summer = 200 * 1.46 = 292
– f fall = 200 * .76 = 152
– f winter = 200 * .93 = 186
Forecasting 24
Determining Indices
Quarter Sales 95
Sales 96
Sales 97
quarter average
average quarter
index
1 400 375 425 400 500 .80
2 300 280 320 300 500 .60
3 575 600 625 600 500 1.2
4 700 650 750 700 500 1.4
Forecasting 25
More indices stuff
• The sum of the indices should = the number of seasons.
• Formula for the index :
average demand specific season
average demand all seasons
Forecasting 26
Regression Models• The basic regression model
– F = constant + b1X1 + b2X2
– b1 is a constant
– X1 is an independent variable
– You can of course use only 1 independent variable in your model- or more than 2 (sometimes many more than 2)
Forecasting 27
Some obvious uses of regression• We can use regression to forecast when we have a trend in
the data.– If the trend is the major source of change in the data
might be able to use a simple regression model where time is our only independent variable
• Ft = constant + b (time period)
• We might also make the season an independent variable
• We can obviously include just about anything else in the model that makes sense
• demand for ice cream - might include temperature
• demand for MBA classes - unemployment rate
Forecasting 28
Other issues
• Double exponential smoothing – Fancy way to try and cope with trends – works
well when there is a one time change – not as well when the trend is always going up / down
• Focused forecasting– Economist
Forecasting 29
Book problems you should be able to do
• 4.2, 4.4, 4.6, 4.8, 4.10, 4.26, 4.28