forecasting 2010 pres (pdf)
TRANSCRIPT
8/9/2019 Forecasting 2010 Pres (PDF)
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FORECASTING 2010
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“28 percent of financeexecutives viewed their
2009 targets as havingbecome obsolete
before the year hadeven begun.”
- Business Finance
Budgeting & Forecasting Study
FORECASTING 2010
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“Forecasting was really the height of arrogance back then. You
really knew that you couldn't forecast, so rather than do plan
after plan after plan, the point was to create flexibility and aresponsiveness within.” - UPS CFO Kurt Kuehn
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“We, like a lot of other companies, started 2010 with
three or four different plans, because you really have to
build some scenarios… We now have a flexible processthat catches improvements during the course of the
year.” - EMC CFO David Goulden.
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Into which of the following categories does your job function fall?
Which option best describes your company/ organization?
Base for both charts: all respondents, 265.
Respondents are high to mid level executives at a
variety of firm types.32% of respondents hold an top level position, such as CFO, CEO, President or Owner. Anadditional 54% are a mid-level executive, such as VP, Director or Manager.
FORECASTING 2010
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63 percent of respondents indicate improving forecastingcapabilities is among their top three 2010 priorities
FORECASTING 2010
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Two thirds of respondents require a week or more to
produce a forecast
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Less than one in five respondents forecast within 0-5
percent accuracy
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Less than one third of respondents indicated they were
very confident about the assumptions in theirorganization’s current cash flow forecast
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Roughly one third of respondent companies have six or
more people dedicated to forecasting
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Respondents indicate their organizations are enhancing
forecasting capabilities through multiple efforts
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What is the primary technology that you use forForecasting?
Source: Business Finance 2010 Budgeting & Forecasting Study
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Budgeting/forecasting processes become more fullyintegrated with overall corporate strategy
Source: Business Finance 2010 Budgeting & Forecasting Study
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External Factors Become “Brick &Mortar” for New Forecasting models
Growing demand for improved
forecasting capabilities is
leading companies to more
closely track the materialimpact external factors are
having on company forecasts.
- The Hackett Group
FORECASTING 2010
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At Dow, Cycles Trump Accuracy• Rather than waiting for the
“DEEP” business cycle, thisapproach is helping Dowidentify business cycles ingeneral. - Dow’s Tim Rey
• Confirming the direction ofthe economy as a whole, withconfidence, can be used to
significant business
advantage. - Dow’s Tim Rey
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At MillerCoors, Causal DiscussionEnergizes Forecasting