Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011

Adam Gelb, Project DirectorPublic Safety Performance Project

The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States

October 2, 2007

Where We’ve Been

Where We’ve Been – Costs

Growth in State Corrections Costs

$0

$5,000,000,000

$10,000,000,000

$15,000,000,000

$20,000,000,000

$25,000,000,000

$30,000,000,000

$35,000,000,000

$40,000,000,000

$45,000,000,000

$50,000,000,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics

Where Are We Going?Report Objectives

To estimate the future size and cost of state and federal prison systems

To examine the reasons for projected growth

To highlight state efforts to control corrections spending

To outline the challenges ahead for state policy makers

Projection Formula

2011 State Prison Population =

[2006 population x 0.453957294846] µ 2005 UCR ± 29384823 ÷ Census projection of 16-24 year-olds x .267 –.364SES¥ - [1/HS graduation rate x .8003]

JUST KIDDING! – We called the states

What We Found – National

National

National

Estimating Future Prison Costs

Operating Costs: National average in 2005 dollars - $23,876 per inmate

Capital Costs: Midpoint estimate $65,000 per bed

What We Found – CostsNew Prison Spending, 2007-2011

$15,000,000,000

$12,500,000,000

$0

$2,000,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$6,000,000,000

$8,000,000,000

$10,000,000,000

$12,000,000,000

$14,000,000,000

$16,000,000,000

Operating Costs Capital Costs

Regions

State Highlights

State Highlights

10 Lowest-Growth States Delaware 0% New York 0%

Connecticut0% Maryland 1% Louisiana 4% Wisconsin 5% Tennessee 5% Missouri 6% Massachusetts 6% Rhode Island 7%

Key Drivers and Trends

Population growth, esp. in West Growing admissions (1980-1992) Longer length of stay (1992- ) Probation and parole violators (60% of

growth) Women (57%) growing faster than men (34%) Rising age (up from 31 to 34) Methamphetamine cases Mental health cases Workforce recruitment and retention Sex-offender laws will be felt in out-years

Tremendous State Variation

Tremendous State Variation

Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population

Admissions, Length of StayDetermined Largely by Policy Choices

State Policy Choices=

State Prison Population / Costs

CT –Targeted Reform

Problem Identified technical violators as driver

Solution Set goal of reducing TVs by 20% Hired 96 new POs Started 2 new supervision/service

programs Public awareness campaign

Result Highest growth to flat Crime drop parallel to national reduction

NC – Broad System Reform

Problem Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short

terms Solution

Build prisons for violent/chronic offenders Abolish discretionary parole release Establish comprehensive guidelines Create state/local partnership for low risk

Result One of highest incarc. rates to middle of the pack Crime fell in sync with national drop Estimated $2 billion in savings over past 12

years

Exciting Time in Criminal Justice Advances in science of behavior change

Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment Motivational Interviewing Contingency Management

Advances in supervision technology Accurate, on site, rapid-result drug screens GPS monitoring

Broad public support for alternatives Trend toward Managing for Results Budget pressure Bipartisan reform efforts across the nation

Implications

Central Question is Being Reframed

OLD“How can we demonstrate that

we’re tough on crime?”

NEW“How can we deliver taxpayers

the best return on their investment?”

Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011

Adam Gelb, Project DirectorPublic Safety Performance Project

The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States

October 2, 2007