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Forecasting Costs (ETC, EAC, VAC) Now that we know where our project stands, it is time to look ahead and answer some questions about the future of our project, such as:

If things continue as they have been going, what will be our final project cost? How much will this vary from our current project budget? What type of performance do we need to have in order to be within our project budget by

the end of the project? Estimate to Complete (ETC) Since we have calculated CPI, we can figure out what the cost to complete the remaining work on our project will be if our performance on the rest of the project is the same is we have experienced so far. In other words, what the remaining work will cost if our current CPI holds. This is known as the Estimate to complete (ETC) and it is calculated as:

ETC= (BAC – EV) / CPI Estimate cost At Completion (EAC) Now that we have an estimate of what it will cost to complete the work, we can add that to our costs so far to provide an estimate of what our total cost will be when we complete the project:

EAC= AC + ETC Variance At Completion Variance at Completion is just the difference between what we had budgeted (the BAC) and the current estimate at completion (EAC).

VAC= BAC – EAC Watch the following video for an overview and example of how these forecasting tools are used. Cost Variance (CV) Cost Variance (CV) is the first of two basic variances that we can calculate once we have collected EV, PV and AC.

CV = EV – AC Negative = over budget positive= under budget

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Schedule Variance (SV) Schedule Variance (SV) is the second of two basic variances that we can calculate once we have collected EV, PV and AC.

SV = EV – PV Negative = work schedule to be complete at this time is not done Positive= work NOT YET schedule to be complete at this time has been done

Cost Performance Index (CPI) While CV gave us a dollar amount that we are over or under budget at a particular point in time, Cost Performance Index (CPI) gives us an indicator of our overall performance to date and a good idea of how we are trending in regards to cost performance. CPI is calculated as follows:

CPI = EV/AC CPI < 1 the cost of completing the work is higher than planned. CPI = 1 the cost of completing the work is right on plan. CPI > 1 the cost of completing the work is less than planned.

While SV gave us a dollar amount to indicate how well we are doing at turning dollars into completed activities on schedule, Schedule Performance Index (SPI) gives us an indicator of our overall schedule performance to date, and a good idea of how we are trending in regards to schedule performance. However, please remember that there are some limitations on using money to measure schedule. Those limitations apply to SPI as well as SV. To know whether a project is

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really behind or ahead of schedule we will look at our planned start and finish dates, milestones, etc. SPI is calculated as follows:

SPI = EV/PV SPI < 1 we are behind schedule. SPI = 1 we are on schedule. SPI > 1 we are ahead schedule.

Percent Complete Index—Budget (PCIB) The percentage of work that is complete based on baseline budget. We can use this if we trust our initial project baseline. We can use our inputs for the EVM to calculate PCIB:

PCIB = EV / BAC Percent Complete Index—Cost (PCIC) The percentage of work that is complete based on our actual costs so far and a revised estimate of the project costs (EAC re). This index is used if we have to revise the baseline due to changes in scope, if we are using rolling wave planning, or for some other reason where we don’t trust out baseline costs.

PCIC= AC/EAC re

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Planned Value Cost (PV) The Schedule % Complete specifies how much of the activity's baseline duration has been completed so far. Budget at Completion is computed from the baseline. When an activity has assignments, the Planned Value Cost is calculated as the Budget At Completion * (Data date of current project - baseline Assignment start date) / (baseline Assignment start date) for each of the assignments and then summed to the activity level.

PV = BAC x Schedule % Complete Example:

EV=$4134 x 50% = $2,067

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Over Budget

Behind Schedule

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Planned Value (PV) is the authorized budget assigned to work to be accomplished for an activity or WBS component

Total Planned Value for the project is known as Budget at Completion (BAC). Earned Value = % of completed work x BAC

PCIB = 50% Schedule % complete =62.26% SV = EV – PV= -$507 CV = EV – AC=-$933 SPI = EV/PV = 0.80 CPI = EV/AC = 0.69

ETC= (BAC-EV)/CPI ETC= ($4,134-$2,067)/0.69 = $2,996 EAC= AC+ ETC = $3,000+$2,996 = $5,996 Estimate cost At Completion =$5,996

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If our baseline is inaccurate, or if we have reason to believe that CPI will not remain the same, ETC, EAC, and VAC may be based on Revised Estimates (sometimes referred to as ETC re, EAC re, and VAC re respectively).

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TCPI < 1: More Budget than Work Left TCPI = 1: Right amount of remaining Budget for remaining work. TCPI > 1: More Work than Budget Left