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Forecasting Flight Traffic at Eurocontrol in

Unprecedented Times

Dr David MarshManager, Forecasting and Analysis

EUROCONTROL

Andrew PeaseAnalytics Solutions Manager

SAS EMEA Data Management and Analytics CoE

Let’s take a ride…

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Eurocontrol Gonna’ Work It Out….

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European Air Traffic Management

Responsibility of States Charging of aircraft operators Cost-recovery Collaborative

Design goals for the 2020 System Capacity handle 3 times traffic Safety factor 10 improvement Environment - 10% effects / flight Costs to airspace users - 50%

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Challenge: Eurocontrol customers need more forecasts to plan,

manage and decide Air traffic organisations Law-makers and regulators Airlines Airports Manufacturers Research institutes and universities Banks & other financial institutions Others

Globally Air traffic management in Europe : €7 Billion / year Air transport delays: €6 Billion in 2006

Of which, air traffic: €1 Billion

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Constantly Growing Challenge

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2009

Medium-Term Forecast

Statistics

Short-TermForecast

Forecast Monitor

Industry Monitor

Long-Term Forecast

Traffic Analysis

Facts-on-Demand

Service Unit Forecast

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First Technical Challenge:Combining Data on 10m Flights Per

Year

Flight Plans- scheduled- actual

Radar Data

Landings, Take-Offs- agreed slots- actual

Airlines

Air traffic control

Airports & States

Flight Datawarehouse

Statistics

Forecasts

Analysis

Original

Seasonal

Trend-Cycle

Irregular

Second Technical Challenge:Generating Thousands of Forecasts

Third Technical Challenge:Regularly Publishing Results in

Reports

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Solution

Delegation Consolidation Simplification Systematisation

Above all Automation Analysis

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Back To Forecasting:Three Forecasts, Many Techniques

Trends

Economy Low-Cost CarriersAirport Capacity High-Speed Train

Load Factors, Aircraft Size

PriceDemography, HubbingFree Trade, Open Skies

Environment...+ +

1 – 2 years 7 years 20 years

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Short-Term Challenge:What is trend? What is noise?

Time series Future is like the past Exceptions? Repetitions? Significant?

Calendar Days in month, working days Easter + Holidays

Strikes Weather Football, rugby, Olympics Timetables, Schedule changes Volcanoes, Storms SARS, Bird Flu, Mexican Flu Kosovo Sep 11th

Oil price Delays New systems Mergers Deregulation Visa rules Aircraft deliveries New runways etc, etc

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Importance of different factors in Long-Term Forecast

Conclusions

Eurocontrol has growing forecasting demands

Forecasting team is the same size

Able to use more data Using more analytic techniques To automatically generate

thousands of forecasts And allow analysts to spend

time....analyzing

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