forecasting: problem solved - eurofinance · forecasting: problem solved . ... 5,7% 5,2% 5,2% 3,0%...
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15.10.2014 / 1
TRILUX GROUP MANAGEMENT GMBH
FORECASTING: PROBLEM SOLVED EUROFINANCE CONFERENCE, BUDAPEST, OCTOBER 15-17, 2014
OLIVER THISSEN
15.10.2014 / 2
• Founded: 1912
• Headquarters: Arnsberg (GER)
• Group revenue 2013: c. € 470m
• Employees worldwide / Arnsberg: 5,000/1,500
• C. 50 partners and subsidiaries
• Service centers in more than 50 countries
• Leading European provider of lighting solutions
• #1 in Germany and #3 in Europe
TRILUX GROUP – KEY FACTS
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TRILUX is well positioned along the lighting value chain with an integrated electronic division
Lamp / Components / LED Electronics Luminaires LMS
• Sourcing of sheets, plates, plastics and other raw materials
• Limited sourcing of conventional lamps
• Sourcing of LED modules
• Development of own platforms
• Development and manufacturing of inductive components (drivers, ballasts)
• Design and production of components for LED lighting, control gear for FL and HID lamps
• Design / production of luminaires for technical applications (indoor and outdoor)
• Sales / marketing of products under different brands in various market segments
• Services e.g. installation and maintenance
• Increased offering of light management systems
• Current offering in cooperation with Philips
• TRILUX is just developing its own Light Management System (LMS) “IRIS”, which will be launched in 2015
Covered by TRILUX
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TRILUX GROUP – STRUCTURE
Technical & decorative luminaires Indoor/Outdoor
Waterproof luminaires (OEM) Medical Lighting for OT/ Hot Floor areas
Retail/Shop-Lighting Electronic ballasts (OEM)
Inductive components & electronic parts (OEM)
Org
aniz
atio
nal
leve
l B
rand
leve
l Pr
oduc
t lev
el Customized solutions/
architectural lighting Online Shop
Centralized Platform Development for
LED Modules & Light Engines
Electronics Luminaires
TRILUX Group
ITZ TRILUX – Innovation und technology Center
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Our Portfolio covers a broad range of applications
Office Industry Health & Care Education
Shop & Retail Outdoor Architectural
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Key locations in Europe and Asia TRILUX Group – worldwide footprint (Dec. 2013)
• Production sites for luminaires solely in Europe
• 13 TRILUX sales organizations in Europe and Asia
• Production sites for Electronics solely in Asia
• Sales of Electronics mostly in Europe. Besides that local sales in India, China and Asean region.
Comments: Europe: Asia / Pacific:
Production site „TRILUX" Sales „TRILUX“
Production site „Affiliate" Sales „Affiliate"
Production site "Electronics" Sales "Electronics"
Zaragoza
Boreham Amersfoort
Mechelen
Entzheim Spreitenbach
Bergamo
Warsaw
Prague
Vienna Bratislava
Budapest
Arnsberg
Cologne
Pune
Delhi
Manila
Hong Kong ZhuHai
Guangzhou
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Strong history of profitability
Change of control – from
Owners to Management
(In €m)
260 271 285 289
267 283 287
314
376
406
375
408
445 440
470
15,2 6,0 3,8 16,2 15,8 17,5 13,5 18,0 19,5 21,0 11,2
24,2 17,5
(9,7)
9,0 0,3 14,3
5,8%
2,2% 1,3%
5,6% 5,9% 6,2% 4,7%
5,7% 5,2% 5,2%
3,0%
5,9% 3,9%
0,1%
3,0%
(2,2%)
1,9%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sales Reported EBIT Normalized EBIT Normalized EBIT Margin (% sales) Reported EBIT Margin (% sales)
Stock clearance from old technology
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Lighting market was heavily influenced by LED as new standard…
8
Long life and durable
Life time up to 100k h; resistant to shock, vibrations, external impacts
Energy efficiency Energy efficiency of 80%-90%
Ecologically friendly Free of toxic chemicals
Zero UV emissions Suitable for heat sensitive and UV- sensitive applications
Design flexibility Can be combined in any shape; dynamic control of light, color and distribution
Light dispersement
Higher application efficiency than conventional lighting
Instant light / switching
Light up immediately Switching does not affect lifetime
Decrease in LED costs
+ Increased LED penetration
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…leading to a delay in demand and producers had to adjust their capabilities and organizations which resulted in one-time adoption costs throughout the industry!
9
Selected challenges for producers…
Structure of LED-lighting solutions significantly different (e.g. LED module includes lamp -> increased complexity)
Shorter product life-cycles
Competitive products need the latest technology
…and what needed to be done
Accumulate relevant know-how and adjust capacities
Transform product portfolio and increase production flexibility
Reduce time-to-market
Higher consulting need for customers Adjust sales organization / approach
15.10.2014 / 10
TRILUX is now well positioned to benefit from the ongoing LED transformation
New LED products / improved sales
approach
Intensified service offering and LMS
Platform technology in production
Working capital optimization
• Higher LED quota than the competition and volume products will lead to a significant participation in future lighting market growth
• ITZ for centralized LED competence
• TRILUX Akademie • Simplify your light • LMS
• Lower costs and faster production • Simplifies sourcing • Faster development of new products
• Decreased working capital intensity • Reduced pass-through time • Consignment warehouses at LED-module suppliers
1
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COVENANTS (Syndicated Loan 2011; Covenant Holiday 2013)
COVENANTS 2011; figures of Dec. 31st, 2013
Capital Resources 76,7
Equity Ratio 31,7% Total Assets 241,7
≥ 30% 1) Equity Ratio Group
Debt 72,3
Debt Ratio 2,73x EBITDA 26,5
< 3,0x ( < 3,5x per June 30th) 2) Debt Ratio
EBITDA 26,5
Interest Cover Ratio 8,66x Net Interest Income 3,1
≥ 5,5x 3) Interest Cover Ratio
COVENANT reset 2014; figures of June 30th, 2014
Capital Resources 78,0
Equity Ratio 30,3% Total Assets 257,8
≥ 25% 1) Equity Ratio Group
Debt 79,0
Debt Ratio 2,63x EBITDA 30,0
< 4,0x (< 4,35x per June 30th) 2) Debt Ratio
EBITDA 30,0
Interest Cover Ratio 9,16x Net Interest Income 3,3
≥ 5,5x 3) Interest Cover Ratio
15.10.2014 / 12
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET 31. DEC. 2013 - EQUITY / LIABILITIES 31.12.2013 31.12.2012
EUR EUR
A. Equity
I. Capital shares of limited partners 9.388.140,12 16.489.650,42II. Balancing items, currency translation 3.505.827,04 5.005.669,02III. Balance sheet profit 36.327.648,52 32.047.206,39IV. Balancing items of other shareholders 183.119,78 229.501,19V. Participatory capital 4.825.000,00 4.725.000,00
54.229.735,46 58.497.027,02B. Provisions
1. Provisions for pensions andsimilar obligations 23.866.582,36 22.024.413,72
2. Provisions for taxes 521.227,65 563.282,763. Other provisions 21.183.196,64 21.589.348,89
45.571.006,65 44.177.045,37C. Liabilities
1. Liabilities to banks 70.821.096,21 77.581.910,632. Trade accounts payable 43.812.474,34 38.837.780,113. Notes payable 1.609.197,44 1.077.169,674. Other liabilities 46.200.524,73 44.385.658,58
162.443.292,72 161.882.518,99D. Deferred income 226.529,41 294.936,56
262.470.564,24 264.851.527,94
incl. shareholder loans 25,4 Mio.
Syndicated loan: - redeemable loan - Bullet - RCV (~40 Mio. EUR)
15.10.2014 / 14
TRILUX GROUP – BUDGET AND LIQUIDITY 2014 Liquidity planning 2014 per month [Mio. EUR]
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
0
-5
-10
Dez Nov Okt Sep Aug Jul Jun Mai Apr Mar Feb Jan Dez Chancen/Risiken Szenario inkl. Swing Chancen/Risiken Szenario Budget 2013 IST (vorl.)
Free line1) 34 23 17 12 11 10 19 16 16 23 31 9 15
Liquidity sufficient in 2014 – free line after risks of 9 Mio. EUR in July 2014
COMMENTS
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METHOD OF (DIRECT) LIQUIDITY FORECASTING
5y integrated plan – P&L / BS / CF (annual basis)
Budget plan year n + 1 (monthly basis)
Liquidity planning year n + 1 (monthly basis)
Cash forecast / Cash Management (daily basis )
Account statements target/actual comparison
(monthly basis )
Rolling liquidity forecast for the next four month
(weekly basis)
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LIQUIDITY PLANNING ALLOCATION TO LIQUIDITY GROUPS
Spreadsheet G_01
Overview liquidity allocation (budget liquidity)
Enter the percentage of internal and external payments in the blue highlighted field
> Material External and Materials TX-Group > External and internal financial expenses > External and internal financial income
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LIQUIDITY PLANNING VAT / PERSONAL EXPENSES
Spreadsheet G_02
Considering VAT and tax rates for each liquidity group > External Sales divided in domestic and
international sales
Details concerning personnel expenses > Enter vacation/Christmas payments > Distribution of personnel expenses in social
security expenses and tax on wages
15.10.2014 / 19
LIQUIDITY PLANNING PAYMENT TERMS / FINANCIAL STATUS
Spreadsheet G_03
Considering payment terms > Enter for each liquidity group the shifting of
payments (measured in months) > E.g. posting of sales revenue vs. date of
customers payment
Estimation of the financial status (internal/external loans/deposits)
> September RFC helps to estimate the financial status as per 31.12.2014
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LIQUIDITY PLANNING OPENING BALANCE / MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS
Spreadsheet G_04
Fill in the opening balance as per 01.01.2015
Opportunity to enter manual adjustments for each liquidity group
Financing part is calculated automatically (reduction/increase to a fixed closing balance at the end of the month)
Do not forget to comment your manual adjustment!
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LIQUIDITY PLANNING OUTPUT (SINGLE COMPANIES CONSOLIDATION)
Spreadsheet G_05
Output: Liquidity Plan (Cash Budget) 2015
Individual credit facilities (TRILUX Finance BV) are based on the individual Cash Budget
Check all liquidity positions