forecasting process: severe weather

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Forecasting process: Severe Weather. Early warning. Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk 1. Receives the information 2. Understands the information 3. BELIEVES the information 4. Personalizes the risk 5. Make correct decisions 6. Respond in a timely manner. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Severe weather warnings

Forecasting process: Severe Weather

Need to find out the reason why 10 C was chosen.The criteria used and basis of the criteria used in other Countries.Early warningStrive to ensure that every person or organization at risk1. Receives the information 2. Understands the information3. BELIEVES the information4. Personalizes the risk5. Make correct decisions6. Respond in a timely mannerEarly warningEffective early warning should be:Short, concise, understandable and actionable

What, where, when, why, how to respond

Should be presented in several different formats text-graphics-color coded categories-audio; should include specific actions for people to take in response to the event.ProcessIdentifying Severe Weather

UKMO Model5-7 Day Lead time5

NOAA Model5-7 Day Lead time6

Unified Model24 Hour fine scale lead time7

Web-based sources: QuickScat

5-7 Days: Issue an Advisory8Keith Moir Meteorologist Cape Town Weather Office

>100mm in 24hour24 Hour pictorial view of upcoming Severe weather9Process: CurrentIssuing and disseminating Warning

DesktopWarningDistribution listIssuing of Warning11

Posted on the Internet12

Television

Radio: KFM, Cape Talk, Tygerberg, CCFM, Voice of the Cape and many others

Newspaper: Burger, Cape Times, Son, Argus, Local newspapers

Telephone: Recorded message- Vodacom Service

Telephone: Direct to Forecaster13Process: CurrentMonitoring and Amending warningsKeith Moir Meteorologist Cape Town Weather Office

Extra Tropical Cyclone - GamedeOld Tropical Cyclone - FavioCold FrontVery Cold Air MassSatellite images15

Thunderstorm16

ThunderstormFog-Aviation Danger17

ThunderstormFog-Aviation Danger18

High Resolution19

Super impose RADAR and Lightning DetectionLightningDetectionstrikesCape TownWeatherRADARDe AarWeatherRADARRadarLightning detection

Severe Bottom stormHigh likelihood of large hail21Analysis of Routine observations

Surface

Upper airFeedback from Disaster Managers and affected peopleWarning Updates issued regularly until threat has passed22Other Tools

WebcamsIndependent Weather stationsProcess: CurrentAfter EventKeith Moir Meteorologist Cape Town Weather Office

25Keith Moir Meteorologist Cape Town Weather Office

Any follow-up weatherRescue mission conditionsPost-impact assessment: Meteorological Aspects26

New Severe Weather Alert System

New Severe Weather Alert System

New Severe Weather Alert System

New Severe Weather Alert System

Way Forward:Re-define warning criteria in conjunction with Disaster Management structures.Educate People-Risks, Adequate Preparedness, Keep abreast with Modern Technology- Dissemination of warningsKeep abreast with advancements in Meteorology-, Climatology researchSouth African Flash Flood Guidance System

Delineation of River Basins

Will Be Discussed NextThank You For Your Time

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/Mountaineers_in_High_Tatry_mountains_winter.jpg

www.capetown.dj/people/people.html http://www.jokesy.com/images/old-lady-senior-citizens-jokes1.jpghttp://happytrailsboardingkennel.com/sitebuilder/images/sick_puppy-600x319.jpghttp://weathersavvy.com/windysnow_OPT.jpg

http://ed101.bu.edu/StudentDoc/Archives/ED101fa06/mattwall/Weather%20Pictures/thunderstorm.jpghttp://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/2271578http://www.iopara.ca/research.html34

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