foreign affairs review winter issue, 2013. syria edition

editor’s desk

2foreign affairs review

Publishing Editor: Nic CarterProduction Manager: Samantha Marcus Associate Editor: Liliane Stadler Associate Editor: Michael CotterillAssociate Editor: Hannah-Mei AndrewsCover Design: Martin LyleDirector of Sponsorship: Tarleton Watkins

Special thanks to: Radim Dragomaca, the Editor-in-Chief of the ReviewMichael Telfer, EditorForeign Affairs Society President: Qi TianForeign Affairs Society Vice President: Abdeslam Salam Akmouci

And a special thanks to all of our writers.

The views expressed in this publication do not reflect in any way the views of the Foreign Affairs Review, the Foreign Affairs Society, The St Andrews Students’ Association, or the University of St Andrews.

This issue of the Foreign Affairs Review is [OL�ÄYZ[�WHWLY�W\ISPJH[PVU�VM�[OL�-VYLPNU�(M-fairs Society. I owe a tremendous debt to all the writers that went over above the call of duty, securing interviews from a wide vari-ety of academics and diplomats. At the start of this academic year, my former magazine, The Regulus, signed a merger with the Foreign Affairs Review (www.foreignaffairsreview.co.uk). The fol-lowing issue combines the print expertise of the Regulus with the vast resources and writer base of the Foreign Affairs Review. Since both publications targeted the same audience and writer base, the merger was a logical move and advantageous to both parties. The Foreign Affairs Review is grate-ful for the contribution of the foundational members of The Regulus, without whom this magazine would look very different. In particular, I would like to thank Ben Shaps, Regulus founder, Kurt Jose, head of spon-sorship, and Deborah Marber, graphic de-signer.

� � � � 0U�[OPZ�ÄYZ[�LKP[PVU�VM�[OL�-VYLPNU�(MMHPYZ�Review magazine we have been able to grant a more lengthy and in-depth analysis to some issues du jour. The chosen theme PZ�[OL�JVUÅPJ[�PU�:`YPH�HUK�P[»Z�YLNPVUHS�PTWSP-cations. In the face of pleas for democracy and openness, Bashar Al-Assad has chosen to brutally repress his own people. Instead of intervention, the international community opted for a Russian-negotiated settlement to strip Assad of his chemical weapons. Meanwhile, civil war continues and threat-ens to destabilise neighboring states. This PZZ\L� JVUZPKLYZ� [OL� LMMLJ[Z� VM� [OPZ� JVUÅPJ[�on Iraq, Lebanon, the Kurdish people, and global actors. This issue would not have been possible without the help of my tremendous editors: Liliane Stadler, Michael Cotterill, and Han-UHO�4LP�(UKYL^Z��HUK�[OL�ÄYT�N\PKPUN�OHUK�of Radim Dragomaca. Of special note are Martin Lyle, who designed the cover, and the tireless Samantha Marcus, who donated ZL]LYHS� KH`Z�VM� OLY� YL]PZPVU�^LLR� [V� ÄUPZO�

-Nic Carter

table of contents

Americas..................04 15 Minutes With Robert Gates 04 DC Bureau Chief interviews the former secretary of defense

False Promises and Premises 05 reframing the NSA debate

The Republican Party 06 where now?

The Abuse of Hayekian Economics 08 reexaminig the austrian position

Guatemala and Genocide 09 we meet with the prosecutor of General Ríos Montt

Africa........................11 $IULFD·V�6XFFHVV�6WRULHV 11 lessons from Botswana and Mauritius

Trapped in Chains 13 the plague of modern-day slavery

Special Feature: Syria ,QWHUYLHZ�ZLWK�$�6\ULDQ�$LG�:RUNHU��15� B�mSTU�IBOE�BDDPVOU�PG�UIF�IVNBO�� costs of revolution

Europe and World.....27 Blonde Angel Blunder 27 Europe’s tetchy relationship with the Roma

Why Britain is Undervaluing the EU 28 the new jewel in the Crown

7KH�6HFXULW\�&RXQFLO��29 why reform may never come

Asia...........................31 7KH�)XWXUH�RI�WKH�:RUOG·V�)DFWRU\��31 China’s foxy new model

7KH�6FUDPEOH�IRU�&HQWUDO�$VLD��33 US and China lock horns

Editor’s Desk............02 Why Iraq Wants Assad to Prevail 18 geopolitics of the crisis examined Out of Chaos: A New Republic? 19 the Kurds make their presence felt

Cold War II: Electric Boogaloo 21 a new dynamic emerges

� 86�+HJHPRQ\�LQ�&ULVLV��22 does Syria mean the end of global order

/HEDQRQ�DQG�6\ULD��24 a tale of two warring siblings

,OOLFLW�)XQGLQJ�RI�WKH�6\ULDQ�&RQÁLFW��25 � UIJT�mHIU�KVTU�HPU�EJSUZ

3 foreign affairs review

10 Minutes with Chancellor Robert GatesIt is Thursday 24 October, 4:10pm to be exact. I am wait-ing outside a normal-looking home in Williamsburg, Virginia and I am nervous. The thing is, inside that home is the Chancel-lor of William & Mary who hap-pens to be Robert Gates. Chan-cellor Gates is a man who is also known as: U.S. Secretary of Defense (2006-2011), Director of Central Intelligence (1991-1993), and the list goes on and on and on. So I think that most people will agree that when you are about to meet one of the PRVW� LQÁXHQWLDO� SXEOLF� VHUYDQWV�in the realm of foreign policy in the post-World War II era, you

would also be nervous.

J.P. Carroll, DC Bureau Chief

I take a seat on a nice plushy couch. I comfortably sink into the cushion. As the Chancellor smiles, I feel calm. All the nervousness I felt minutes ago has been washed away. After introducing myself, I tell the Chancellor I would like to discuss two topics: the Syrian Civil War and the Government Shutdown. He tells me to go right ahead. As we discuss the Syrian Civil War, the Chancellor breaks down the FRQÁLFW�LQWR�WKUHH�FRPSRQHQWV��6XQQLV�YHUVXV�6KL·LWHV��5HOLJLRXV�([WUHPLVWV�YHUVXV�6HFXODULVWV��$XWKRULWDULDQV�YHUVXV�5HIRUPHUV� Chancellor Gates goes on to say that due to these three com-SRQHQWV��WKH�FRQÁLFW�LV�IDU�PRUH�FRPSOH[�DQG�PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDO�than most legislators depict it to be. The main fear expressed by Chancellor Gates with regards to the Syrian Civil War is that it KDV�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�WR�EHFRPH�D�UHJLRQDO�FRQÁLFW�� +H�JRHV�RQ�WR�SRLQW�RXW�WKH�IRUHLJQ�VXSSRUW�RI�ERWK�VLGHV�RI�WKH�FRQÁLFW��8�6��6DXGL��DQG�4DWDUL�VXSSRUW�IRU�WKH�UHEHOV�YHUVXV�,UDQLDQ��5XVVLDQ��and Hezbollah support for the Syrian government. While the Chancellor goes on to express his great concern for the grow-LQJ�KXPDQLWDULDQ�FULVLV�GXH�WR�WKH�FRQÁLFW��SDUWLFXODUO\�WKH�UHIX-JHH�FULVLV��KH�GRHV�QRW�WKLQN�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�VKRXOG�LPSRVH�D�QR�Á\�]RQH��QRU�VKRXOG�LW�VHQG�WURRSV�WR�6\ULD�� ,Q�KLV�RSLQLRQ�if the West got militarily involved, it would make more sense IRU(XURSHDQ� FRXQWULHV� UHVSRQVLEOH� IRU� WKH� DUWLÀFLDO� FUHDWLRQ�RI�states in the Middle East to deal with their legacy of colonialism. +H�ZHQW�RQ�WR�VD\�WKDW�WKHUH�LV�PRUH�MXVWLÀFDWLRQ�IRU�LQFUHDVHG�Turkish involvement than American involvement in Syria. A powerful example used by Chancellor Gates to illustrate his point about the dangers of increased Western military involve-PHQW�LQ�6\ULD�LV�WKH�RYHUWKURZ�RI�0XDPPDU�*DGGDÀ�LQ�/LE\D�� Chancellor Gates emphasizes that while he was Secretary of Defense in the Obama Administration he was strongly op-SRVHG� WR�8�6�� LQWHUYHQWLRQ� LQ�/LE\D�� $FFRUGLQJ� WR�&KDQFHOORU�*DWHV��LW�LV�EHFDXVH�RI�1$72�LQWHUYHQWLRQ�LQ�/LE\D�WKDW�5XVVLD�DQG�&KLQD�ZLOO�QHYHU� DJDLQ� VLJQ�RQ� WR� D�81�6HFXULW\�&RXQFLO�

5HVROXWLRQ� DOORZLQJ� ´KXPDQLWDULDQ� LQWHUYHQWLRQµ�� 7KH� &KDQ-FHOORU� HPSKDVL]HG� WKDW� WKHUH� LV� ´D� ELJ� GLIIHUHQFH� EHWZHHQ� WKH�measures enacted to alleviate a humanitarian crisis and the PHDVXUHV�HQDFWHG�WR�IDFLOLWDWH�UHJLPH�FKDQJH�µ��:KHQ�GLVFXVV-LQJ� /LE\DQ� LQWHUYHQWLRQ�ZLWK�PHPEHUV� RI� &RQJUHVV�� &KDQFHO-lor Gates stated that what they did not seem to understand was WKDW� ´HYHQ� LPSRVLQJ� D� QR�Á\� ]RQH�PXVW� EHJLQ�ZLWK� DQ� DFW� RI�ZDU�µ� �+H�JRHV�RQ�WR�SRLQW�RXW� WKDW� WKH�6\ULDQ�DQWL�DLU�GHIHQVH�V\VWHP� LV� ´PRUH� VRSKLVWLFDWHGµ� WKDQ� WKH� /LE\DQ� V\VWHP� ZDV��7KH�SUREOHP�ZLWK�LPSRVLQJ�D�QR�Á\�]RQH�LQ�6\ULD�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�&KDQFHOORU�*DWHV�LV�WKDW�LW�LPPHGLDWHO\�SXWV�8�6��WURRSV�DW�ULVN��,I�DQ�$PHULFDQ�DLUFUDIW�LV�VKRW�GRZQ��8�6��WURRSV�FRXOG�GLH��7KHUH�is also the possibility that if those troops survive, they would be WDNHQ�DV�SULVRQHUV�RI�ZDU�E\�3UHVLGHQW�$VVDG��2QFH�D�QR�Á\�]RQH�is imposed in Syria, there is no undoing this; to go ahead with VXFK�DFWLRQ�DV�VRPH�KDYH�SURSRVHG��´ZRXOG�WDNH�FRQWURO�RI�8�6��KDQGVµ�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�&KDQFHOORU�*DWHV��+H�ZHQW�RQ�WR�VD\�WKDW�́ WKH�YDULDEOHV�RI�ZDU�FDQQRW�EH�FRQWUROOHGµ�RQFH�WKH�EDOO�JHWV�UROOLQJ� With regards to President Assad, Chancellor Gates said that Putin PDGH�D�ZLVH�SROLWLFDO�PRYH��IURP�3XWLQ·V�VWDQGSRLQW��E\�EURNHULQJ�the handover of Syrian chemical weapons. By doing this, Chan-FHOORU�*DWHV�VDLG�WKDW�´3UHVLGHQW�3XWLQ�KDV�HQVXUHG�WKDW�3UHVLGHQW�$VVDG�ZLOO�UHPDLQ�LQ�SRZHU�IRU�DW�OHDVW�RQH�WR�WZR�PRUH�\HDUVµ�� After this comment, I proceeded to ask Chancellor Gates DERXW� KLV� WKRXJKWV� RQ� 6HFUHWDU\� RI� 6WDWH� -RKQ�.HUU\·V� HIIRUWV�at organizing a Syria peace conference in Geneva. I noted how many are saying the Secretary of State is having trouble bringing together the fractured Syrian opposition. Chancel-lor Gates said that while he is not sure about the prospects of WKH� SURSRVHG� *HQHYD� &RQIHUHQFH�� 6HFUHWDU\� .HUU\� ´KDV� WR�WU\� WR�PDNH� WKLV� KDSSHQ� DQG� ,� DP� VXUH� KH� LV� GRLQJ� KLV� EHVWµ�� ,� TXLFNO\� VFULEEOH� GRZQ� WKH� &KDQFHOORU·V� UHVSRQVH� DV� IDVW�as I can and then I ask him about his thoughts on the recent government shutdown. Apparently the shutdown has cost the


Americas .

J.P. Carroll and Chancellor Robert Gates

8�6�� HFRQRP\��ELOOLRQ�ZKLFK� LV�ZK\�I asked Chancellor Gates not justabout the political but also the economic ef-fects of the shutdown. He went on to say WKDW��´WKH�SUREOHPV�LQ�:DVKLQJWRQ�DUH�QRW�something that happened overnight. This did not begin with the election of Presi-dent Obama or the election of Tea Party 5HSXEOLFDQV��7KLV�KDV�EHHQ�EUHZLQJ�DQG�JHWWLQJ�ZRUVH�RYHU�WKH�SDVW��\HDUV�µ��,Q�the opinion of Chancellor Gates, one of the serious problems in Washington is the LVVXH�RI�JHUU\PDQGHULQJ�VLQFH�´RI�WKH��VHDWV�LQ�WKH�8�6��+RXVH�RI�5HSUHVHQWDWLYHV��QRW� PDQ\� VHDWV� DUH� FRPSHWLWLYH�µ� � ,W� LV�this lack of competitive political districts which has greatly increased extreme par-tisanship according to Chancellor Gates. � � � � 8OWLPDWHO\�� LQ� WKH� RSLQLRQ� RI� &KDQ-FHOORU� *DWHV�� HYHU� VLQFH� WKH� �� ÀQDQ-cial crisis and due to these recent years of particularly problematic Washington politics, many countries in the world no ORQJHU� VHH� WKH�8�6�� DV� WKH�PRGHO� WR� IRO-ORZ��´,Q�WKH��WKFHQWXU\��WKH�8�6��PRG-el was admired throughout the world. Now though, world leaders look at the 8�6�� DQG� DVN� WKHPVHOYHV�� ¶'R� ,� ZDQW�WKDW� IRU� P\VHOI"� � )RU� P\� FRXQWU\"·µ

´6R�� LV� WKH� ��VW� FHQWXU\� QRW� WKH� VHFRQG�$PHULFDQ�FHQWXU\"µ�,�DVN�´2K� LW� LV�� EXW� WKLV� LV� FHUWDLQO\� D� URXJK�SDWFK�µ�KH�UHSOLHV��DOZD\V�WKH�RSWLPLVW�

With that, our interview is over. We shake hands, take a photo, and I thank him for his time. The Chancellor asks me if I played the Old Course while in St Andrews to which I embarrassedly reply no. I assure him that I know how to play golf and will make time for the 2OG�&RXUVH�QH[W�\HDU�� ´*RRG�µ�KH� VD\V�as he once again smiles with that youth-ful, reassuring, contagious smile. It is D�VPLOH�ZKLFK� IRU�RYHU��\HDUV� LQ�JRY-ernment knows that while today might VHHP�GLIÀFXOW��WKHUH�LV�DOZD\V�WRPRUURZ�� ,� OHDYH� WKH� KRXVH� EULHÁ\� IHHOLQJ� UH-DVVXUHG� DERXW� WKH� 8QLWHG� 6WDWHV� DQG� LWV�future on the world stage. However, shortly after this optimistic feeling I be-gin to feel dread. This feeling of dread VWHPV� IURP� WKH� UHDOL]DWLRQ� WKDW� 5REHUW�*DWHV�QR�ORQJHU�KDV�D�VD\�RQ�8�6��IRUHLJQ�policy and we are all worse off because of it. I get on my bike and begin riding home, hoping I am wrong about this and WKDW� WKH� RSWLPLVW� 5REHUW� *DWHV� LV� ULJKW�

Americas .


False Promises and Premises: Reframing the NSA DebateTucker Higgins, DC Bureau

“When a 29-year-old can decide for his- or herself whether to divulge state se-crets, that’s a recipe for chaos” – Robert Gates, former defense secretary, October 24, Williamsburg, Virginia

“My advice to future leakers is this: First you must never trust the chain of com-mand. The chain is there only to choke you. And then you must learn to beat the polygraph” – Russ Tice, NSA-whistle-blower, October 26, Washington D.C.

In one year, both Keith Alexander and James Clapper will likely retire. Alexan-der and Clapper are the two men most responsible for the mass surveillance SHUSHWUDWHG� E\� WKH� 16$� DQG� RIÀFLDOO\-made public by Edward Snowden; they have a troubled legacy to look forward to. The documents and testimony that have emerged from the saga have made ap-peals to national security but merely ap-pear spurious--there have been more for-mer lovers spied on than terrorist attacks stymied –while reminding the world why an unchecked superpower is dangerous to the world regardless of who it claims as an ally.��8QIRUWXQDWHO\��LW�LV�XQFOHDU�LI�DQ\WKLQJ�will change when the dust settles. Since the conversation on NSA spying contin-XHV�WR�EH�GHÀQHG�E\�WKH�PRVW�UHFHQW�OHDN��it has a tendency to shift dramatically in a short amount of time. When the leaks

began over the summer, it was the govern-PHQW·V�LQWHUFHSWLRQ�RI�VRFLDO�PHGLD�WUDIÀF�and phone data that gained notoriety. On 2FWREHU��ZKHQ�D�JURXS�RI�VHYHUDO�WKRX-VDQG�SURWHVWHUV�PHW�DW�8QLRQ�6WDWLRQ�XQGHU�WKH�DHJLV�RI�WKH�´6WRS�:DWFKLQJ�8Vµ�FRDOL-tion, the revelation that German Chancel-ORU� $QJHOD� 0HUNHO·V� SHUVRQDO� FHOOSKRQH�had been tapped was the most recent news. $QG�� WRGD\�� LW� LV� QRW� ÀUVW� RUGHU� LVVXHV� RI�government programs but instead second order problems –the effect of the revela-tions on foreign policy –that seem to be gaining the most traction. While these revelations have spilled out, the Obama administration has made clumsy attempts at addressing each leak as it springs up. By the end of the circus, there will be many promises madeand hopefully a bill or two passed. However, unless the conversation starts to address the leaks as RQH�XQLÀHG�SUREOHP�²DQG�RQH�WKDW�LV�LQ�QR�way new –there will be no real solution. The larger problem looming behind the current leaks is that we are engaged in an arms race with an unclear enemy. In KLV� ERRN� ´7KH� :DWFKHUV�µ� 6KDQH� +DUULV�traces the start of the arms race to the sui-FLGH�ERPELQJ�LQ�%HLUXW�LQ��WKDW�NLOOHG�QHDUO\�WKUHH�KXQGUHG�PDULQHV��$IWHU��it was Admiral John Poindexter –who would later gain infamy as the highest UDQNHG�RIÀFLDO�LQGLFWHG�IRU�WKH�,UDQ�&RQWUD�affair –who revolutionized the way Ameri-cans collected intelligence from his posi-

Image courtesy of Tucker Higgins © 2013

tion in the Crisis Pre-Planning Group. In UHVSRQVH�WR�WKH�DWWDFN�LQ�/HEDQRQ��$PHUL-FD·V�DWWHPSW�WR�XVH�WHFKQRORJ\�DV�D�ZHDSRQ�against terrorism began in earnest. This pattern of violence begetting in-FUHDVHG�VXUYHLOODQFH�GLG�QRW�HQG�LQ�WKH��V�but increased rapidly, only occasionally set back by the perfervid but short-lived cri-tiques of privacy advocates. Indeed, much of the surveillance conducted by the gov-ernment in the wake of the Beirut attack--techniques we recognize today like email sweeps and the collection of meta-data-�ZDV�GHEDWHG�KRWO\�RQ�WKH�ÁRRU�RI�&RQJUHVV�LQ�WKH�ODWH��V��+RZHYHU��WKH�GHEDWH�RF-curred only a few years before September �� ZKHQ� RQFH� DJDLQ�$PHULFD�ZDV�distracted from the idea of too much data in the hands of government.� � � � �$IWHU�� -RKQ�3RLQGH[WHU� UHWXUQHG�to the scene with an idea: it was called ´7RWDO� ,QIRUPDWLRQ�$ZDUHQHVV�µ� 7RWDO� ,Q-formation Awareness, which Poindexter GXEEHG�´$�0DQKDWWDQ�3URMHFW�IRU�&RXQWHU-WHUURULVPµ� LQ�KLV�3RZHU3RLQW�SUHVHQWDWLRQ�WR� WKH� KHDG� RI� '$53$�� ZDV� GHVLJQHG� WR�do precisely what it sounds like, gleaning information like academic grades, phone calls, ATM withdrawals and emails. This program, though killed in its earlier form E\�D�OHDN�DQG�QHJDWLYH�SXEOLFLW\��GLGQ·W�GLH�completely; instead it metamorphosed into the programs we continue to learn about through Edward Snowden. Today in leaked documents we see the UHPQDQWV� RI� 3RLQGH[WHU·V� HDUO\� SURJUDPV�DPSOLÀHG� WR� H[SRQHQWLDO� OHYHOV�� 'HVSLWH�repeated and occasionally successful at-tempts by privacy advocates to put laws

on the books, there has been no substantial impact at all on the way the government has conducted its business. For this reason, we must begin to address mass surveil-lance as a longstanding problem that has lasted through many presidential adminis-trations and that will not be stopped as long as the terms of the debate are allowed to remain as they are. First we must stop thinking about mass surveillance as a potential problem, or a problem waiting to happen if the govern-ment ever got out of control. The truth is that whenever this technology is invent-ed, it is used, including by governments with weaker human rights records than WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV��-DPHV�%DPIRUG��VSHDN-LQJ�DERXW�SURJUDPV�GHYLVHG� LQ� WKH��V��ZULWHV�WKDW�WKH�PDVV�VXUYHLOODQFH�´V\VWHPV�were sold to whoever would buy them, in-cluding some of themost oppressive and DXWKRULWDULDQ�JRYHUQPHQWV�RQ� WKH�SODQHW�µ�He mentions that it is not unheardof to be dragged out of an internet café in Vietnam (one governmental purchaser of mass sur-YHLOODQFH� HTXLSPHQW�� IRU� ORRNLQJ� DW� WKH�wrong pro-democracy web site. The second idea that must change is that the spread of these programs is inevi-table and that privacy is already dead. The spread is not inevitable: arms races have ended before. Weapons deemed unethical in any circumstance, like chemical weap-ons, have been barred, never to be used again legitimately. These prohibitions were the results of new thinking and agreements at the international level. This international model is the one we must look at when dealing with mass surveillance law.

Americas .

Image courtesy of Tucker Higgins © 2013William and Mary students gather at a rally to protest NSA spying 26/10/13


The Republican Party: Where Now?Taylor Carey The recent federal government shut-down revealed a Republican Party ruled by a narrow and unrepresentative agen-GD��ZKLFK�UHLÀHG�KDUGHQHG�LGHRORJ\�DQG�banished productive political conver-sations. The GOP’s humiliating failure opens the door to two possible futures – upon which the election in 2016 will hinge.� � � � 5HÁHFWLQJ� RQ� WKH� VL[WHHQ�GD\� VDJD�ZKLFK�VDZ�5HSXEOLFDQV�DWWHPSW�WR�KROG�the Federal Government to ransom, 6HQDWH�0LQRULW\�/HDGHU�0LWFK�0F&RQ-nell offered a platitude from Kentucky: ´7KHUH·V�QR�HGXFDWLRQ�LQ�WKH�VHFRQG�NLFN�RI� D�PXOH�µ�)RUFLQJ�D� VKXWGRZQ�KDGQ·W�ZRUNHG�IRU�1HZW�*LQJULFK�LQ�WKH��V��ZKHQ� 5HSXEOLFDQ� ]HDO� FUHDWHG� D� GLVDV-trous perception of their indifference to the plight of furloughed citizens. For 7HG�&UX]�LQ��KLVWRU\�ZDV�LQ�GDQJHU�of repeating itself. The junior senator from Texas quickly EHFDPH� WKH� SXEOLF� IDFH� DQG� PRUDO� ÀJ-urehead of a GOP faction which viewed the Affordable Care Act, widely known as Obamacare, as an existential threat to $PHULFDQ�VRFLHW\�²�DQ�XQMXVWLÀDEOH�H[-pansion of the Federal Government and a stealthy encroachment of state social-ism on constitutional order. Awkward, angry, and prone to creepily tangential RXWEXUVWV�RQ�WKH�6HQDWH�ÁRRU��&UX]�KRO-lered loyally to the tune set for him by his beloved Tea Party base. But, as the sixteen days in October proved, shout-LQJ�ORXGHU�GRHVQ·W�DOZD\V�ZLQ�YRWHV� Political speculation is a risky busi-QHVV� DW� WKH� EHVW� RI� WLPHV�� WKH� ¶HYHQWV��GHDU� ER\·� RI� ZKLFK� +DUROG� 0DFPLOODQ�spoke play havoc with carefully crafted calculations, and predications are rarely blessed with anything like true foresight. But, if one were to venture a vision of the future for the GOP, recalling some of the peculiarities of the recent Federal shutdown would be a far from bad idea. Topping the list has to be the simple fact that this was a political drama which WKH�5HSXEOLFDQ�OHDGHUVKLS�SUREDEO\�QHY-er wanted. By his own admission, House 6SHDNHU�-RKQ�%RHKQHU�ZDV�¶RYHUUXQ·E\�forces moving beneath his feet. What was initially intended as no more than a show vote against faunding provision for Obamacare – and perhaps a bar-gaining chip in future debt ceiling and sequester negotiations – became a point

Americas .of honour for a narrow minority of grass-roots conservatives. The reinstatement of defunding or delaying clauses in the Con-WLQXLW\� $SSURSULDWLRQV� 5HVROXWLRQ� E\� WKH�+RXVH� RI� 5HSUHVHQWDWLYHV� UHSUHVHQWHG� D�headlong dive into political gridlock, be-fore the leadership of the GOP could even think about slamming on the brakes. This RSHQLQJ�DFW�RI�:DVKLQJWRQ·V� ODWHVW� GUDPD�set the tone for the contrasts which would HPHUJH�VKRUWO\��2Q� WKH�RQH�KDQG�� WKH�5H-publicans, characterised by disunity and factionalism, and on the other, the Demo-crats, remarkably cohesive and decisively coherent. The battle, in other words, was over before it began. All the President had WR�GR�ZDV�WR�ZDLW�IRU�WKH�5HSXEOLFDQ�RSHUD-tion to implode. Implode it did, and in humiliating fash-LRQ��)RU�DOO�&UX]·V�K\SHUEROH��5HSXEOLFDQ�lawmakers ended up granting exactly the concessions they had refused (and been XQDQLPRXV� LQ� UHIXVLQJ�� EHIRUH� WKH� FULVLV�began: a debt ceiling increase until 7th )HEUXDU\�� IXQGLQJ� WKURXJK� WR� ��WK� -DQX-ary, and no policy strings attached. Aware that public opinion would rapidly cool to-wards the party which could not help but portray themselves as the obstructers, the President simply swivelled in his chair as Boehner frantically cycled through the by QRZ�ZHOO�ZRUQ�QHJRWLDWLQJ�SODQNV��5HFRQ-sideration of the individualmandate and HYHQ�D�¶JUDQG�EDUJDLQ·�RQ�WD[�DQG�VSHQGLQJ�were among the suggestions to be placed before the president; unfortunately for the GOP leadership, Obama had no intention of picking them up off the desk.� � � � ´7KHUH� DUH� QR�ZLQQHUV� KHUHµ�� LQVLVWHG�WKH�3UHVLGHQW·V�3UHVV�6HFUHWDU\�-D\�&DUQH\��as the inevitable endgame of the shutdown was played out. Indeed, the sentiment is surely a sensible one; at best, an unhelp-IXO�DQG�FRVWO\�GLVWUDFWLRQ�KDV�ÀQDOO\�EHHQ�put away – for now. But, of course, there werepolitical winners and losers. Chief among the former was the President, deliv-ered from the political purgatory of Syria and relieved – for a moment – from a bar-rage of criticism over the technicalities of the Obamacare rollout. But the reactions of the losers are quite revealing, and speak to WKH�SRVVLELOLWLHV�IRU�D�5HSXEOLFDQ�3DUW\�RI�� The man whose career should have been in tatters in the wake of his humiliating mismanagement – John Boehner – was SHUKDSV� WKH� ÀUVW� WR� OHDS� DERDUG� WKH� VSLQ�machine. Giving an interview the day af-ter the government reopened, Boehner in-VLVWHG� WKDW� WKH�*23�KDG� ¶IRXJKW� WKH�JRRG�ÀJKW·�DQG�UHPDLQHG�WUXH�WR�LWV�FRUH�YDOXHV��The idea itself is an accurate portrait only

of the GOP of recent years,but the impli-cation – that Boehner was an architect of WKH�5HSXEOLFDQ�VWUDWHJ\�²�LV�VLPSO\�D�ÀF-tion. Hewas caught unawares by an elec-toral faction which increasingly controls the policy agenda of the GOP, and from which he still feels imperilled. � � � �%HKLQG� WKDW� WKUHDW� LV� WKH� LQÁXHQFH�RI�5HSXEOLFDQ� JHUU\PDQGHULQJ�� ODVW� VHHQ� LQ��:LWK�DQ�LQFUHDVH�RI�VDIH�VHDWV�FRQ-stituted by a redrawing of district bound-DULHV�� WKH� 5HSXEOLFDQ� OHDGHUVKLS� KDV� EH-come focused on its internal standing, rather than its image in the broader politi-cal landscape. The result is undue defer-ence to fringe elements of the party, and WKH�DUWLÀFLDO�DPSOLÀFDWLRQ�RI�VSHFLDO�LQWHU-ests andnarrow agendas. Hence the grip of demagogues like Cruz on the GOP leader-ship in Washington, and the arms race of policy madness, in which compromise has become a profane and unacceptable word. � � � �2QH�YLVLRQ�RI�WKH�*23·V�IXWXUH��WKHQ��could be depressingly similar to its antics in the recent past. Ever more extreme, the 5HSXEOLFDQ�3DUW\�ZRXOG�FRQVLJQ�LWVHOI�WR�the fringe of popular politics, but retain a nightmarish capacity for political de-VWUXFWLRQ� DQG�KDYRF�PDNLQJ�� ¶3ROLWLFV�E\�XOWLPDWXP·� LV� LQFUHDVLQJO\� V\PSWRPDWLF�of democratic disappointment and failure, and the mobilisation of marginal voices hell-bent on political revenge. Should the 5HSXEOLFDQ� 3DUW\� EHFRPH� GHÀQHG� E\� LWV�Tea Party base, to the exclusion of any-thing like a moderate perspective (hard HQRXJK�WR�ÀQG�HYHQ�QRZ��VXFK�ZLOO�EH�WKH�GHVWLQ\�RI�86�SROLWLFV�� But, perhaps, a brighter horizon might be glimpsed. Two words of Senator Mitch McConnell frame a more optimistic per-VSHFWLYH��´1HYHU�DJDLQµ��7KH�5HSXEOLFDQ�Party of Ted Cruz is unelectable, as the SROO�GDPDJH�LQÁLFWHG�RQ�WKH�*23�LPPH-diately following the shutdown showed. But the tables have turned – at least in the public eye – on those extremists whose supposed disdain for Washington politics led to the worst gridlock for a decade.

5HSXEOLFDQV�DUWLFXODWLQJ�D�PRUH�PRGHUDWH�position are able to reposition themselves as hard-working pragmatists whose po-litical vision is grounded on the good of America, not unreasonable ideology. By VR� GRLQJ�� 5HSXEOLFDQV� RSHQ� WKH� GRRU� WR�genuine political conversation and pro-ductive debate, both of which have been banished since the rise of the Tea Party in WKH�HDUO\��V��7KLV�LV�D�YLVLRQ�RI�¶SDUWLVDQVKLS·�FORVHU�WR�WKDW�RI�5RQDOG�5HDJDQ�DQG�7LS�2·1HLO��whose diametrically opposed political convictions were underpinned by a deep love of democracy and public service. The prioritising of the good of the people – and responsiveness to the realities of the America they represented – cemented a trust either side of the aisle, which broad-ened the possibilities of Washington poli-tics. Of course, this is a romanticised no-WLRQ�²�SROLWLFDO�UHDOLWLHV�LQ�WKH��V�ZHUH�DV�JUL]]O\�DV�WKH\�DUH�LQ��²�EXW�WKH�GUD-matically different vision of political dis-agreement, debate andcompromise casts WKH�UHFHQW�IDLOXUH�RI�$PHULFD·V�GHPRFUDWLF�institutions in a shameful light.��7KLV�LV�D�YLVLRQ�WKDW�WKH�5HSXEOLFDQ�3DUW\�can choose to buy into, if the eccentricities of demagogues at its fringes can be tamed. If the GOP takes to heart the message that ¶QR�RQH�LV�D�ZLQQHU·�LQ�D�JDPH�RI�SROLWLFDO�ransom, and that such tactics are a slight to the trust placed in them by the people they serve, then change is possible. With the retirement of Olympia Snowe and ousting RI�5LFKDUG�/XJDU��ZH�PD\�KDYH�PRXUQHG�WKH� ODVW�RI� WKH�¶ROG�IDVKLRQHG�PRGHUDWHV·��but such a sad reality does not rule out the SXEOLF·V� DWWLWXGH� IRU�PRUH��7KH� VKXWGRZQ�drama may have been the very public un-YHLOLQJ�RI�WKH�7HD�3DUW\·V�WUXH�FRORXUV��DQG�a glimpse of the political reality to come, if current trajectories are allowed to run their course. If so, it has to be admitted that most Americans did not like what they VDZ��D�VLPSOH�EXW�LQFUHGLEO\�GLIÀFXOW�IDFW�IRU�D�*23�QRPLQHH�WR�FRQIURQW�LQ��

President Obama meets with Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner

Image courtesy of Pete Souza © 2011


Americas .


The Abuse of Hayekian EconomicsRaymond Ko��1H[W�\HDU�ZLOO�PDUN�WKH��WK�DQQLYHUVD-U\�RI�)ULHGULFK�+D\HN·V�PRVW�IDPRXV�ERRN��WKH�5RDG� WR� 6HUIGRP��:ULWWHQ� LQ� /RQGRQ�LQ�WKH��V��XQGHU�WKH�FRQVWDQW�VKDGRZ�RI�Nazi Germany bombing, the book warned of the linkage between socialism and tyranny. Hayek argued that government planning inevitably suppresses individual choice in the economy. To enforce absolute material equality between people with dif-ferent resource endowment, the state has to be increasingly involved in every aspect of society, leading to Tyranny. Shortly after its publication, the book was met with tre-PHQGRXV��DQG�UDWKHU�XQH[SHFWHG��VXFFHVV��HVSHFLDOO\�LQ�WKH�8�6��7KH�5HDGHU·V�'LJHVW�published an abridged version of the book, of which several millions were sold. A car-toonised pamphlet of the book was pub-lished and was later distributed by General 0RWRUV��7KH�5RDG�WR�6HUIGRP�EHFDPH�WKH�intellectual tour de force against socialism in the early days of the Cold War. ��,Q��WKH�ERRN�ZDV�EURXJKW�EDFN�LQWR�the public spotlight through an endorse-ment by Glenn Beck, a television commen-WDWRU�RQ�)R[�1HZV��0LWW�5RPQH\�DQG�3DXO�5\DQ��5HSXEOLFDQ�QRPLQHHV�IRU�YLFH�SUHVL-GHQF\�LQ�WKH��HOHFWLRQ��FLWHG�+D\HN�DV�the inspiration behind his economic policy. Michele Bachmann, a republican senator DQG� �RQFH�� SUHVLGHQWLDO� KRSHIXO�� FODLPHG�WKDW� VKH� UHDG� /XGZLJ� YRQ�0LVHV� ²� D� IHO-low Austrian school economist to Hayek

– while holidaying on a beach. Justin $PDVK��D�5HSXEOLFDQ�FRQJUHVV�IUHVKPDQ��has a giant poster of Hayek on the walls of KLV�RIÀFH��7KLV�VXGGHQ�SRSXODULW\�EHJV�WKH�TXHVWLRQV� �� ZKHUHLQ� OLHV� +D\HN·V� DWWUDF-WLRQ�WR�5HSXEOLFDQV"�$QG�KRZ�FRQJUXHQW�are his ideas to the policies his supporters advocate? Hayek was a public intellectual whose works spanned economics, political theo-ry and philosophy. At the heart of his ar-gument against socialism is his economic theory of the market. He contends that market information is so dispersed among DQ� LQÀQLWHO\� ODUJH� QXPEHU� RI�PDUNHWSDU-ticipants, that no one person or body can act as the depository and clearinghouse for all relevant market information. He gives the example that with a market of ��SHUVRQV�DQG��FRPPRGLWLHV�� WKHUH�ZRXOG�DOUHDG\�EH��ZD\V�WR�GLVWULE-ute the goods. It is therefore absurd that one central planning authority would be DEOH�WR�FRPSUHKHQG�DQ�LQÀQLWH�DPRXQW�RI�ever-changing market data. In the face of extremely fragmented information, price signals (which would have been one of the ¶JUHDWHVW� WULXPSKV� RI� WKH� KXPDQ� PLQG·��KDG�LW�EHHQ�GHOLEHUDWHO\�LQYHQWHG��KH�VD\V��serves to guide market behaviour. Market participants need not know the causes of changes in prices - as long as they follow WKH� ODZ� RI� VXSSO\� DQG� GHPDQG�� HIÀFLHQW�allocation is possible. Government inter-YHQWLRQ�SUHYHQWV�WKH�HIÀFLHQW�DOORFDWLRQ�RI�resources because it distorts price signals and therefore hinders the transmission of knowledge in the market. Hayek is also a strong proponent for individual responsibility for the outcomes of market competition. He argues that the LGHD� RI� ¶VRFLDO� MXVWLFH·� LV� PHDQLQJOHVV��Claims of justice are only enforceable against people. The market, as an imper-sonal agglomeration, cannot be blamed forthe misfortunes that befall its partici-pants. The Hayekian market is strictly value-neutral. At the same time, he is scrupulously consistent in his assessment RI� WKH� PDUNHW�� ¶:RUWK\·� LQGLYLGXDOV�� KH�concedes, often lose in market competi-WLRQ� ZKLOH� WKH� ¶XQZRUWK\·� DUH� UHZDUGHG��Success and failure in the market should QRW�EH� D�PHDVXUH�RI� D�PDQ·V�ZRUWK��7KH�American idea that private enterprise reg-XODUO\�UHZDUGV�WKH�¶GHVHUYLQJ·��KH�DUJXHV��¶KDV�ODUJHO\�EHFRPH�WKH�EDVLV�RI�WKH�VHOI�HVWHHP�RI�WKH�EXVLQHVVPDQ·� Hayek was also extremely sceptical of the idea of individual entitlement to SXEOLF�ZHOIDUH��,Q��WKH�KH\GD\�RI�WKH�SRVWZDU�FRQVHQVXV�LQ�WKH�8.��KH�VD\V�¶:H�

are not [...] members of an organisation called society, because the society which produces the means for the satisfaction of most of our needs is not an organisation directed by a conscious will, and could not SURGXFH�ZKDW� LW� GRHV� LI� LW�ZHUH�·�7ZHQW\�years later, Margaret Thatcher expressed WKH� VDPH� LGHD� LQ�KHU� IDPRXV� ¶WKHUH� LV� QR�VXFK�WKLQJ�DV�VRFLHW\·�LQWHUYLHZ��+RZHYHU��while Hayek believes that individuals have primary responsibility for their material well-being, he does not argue that the state has no responsibility for the disabled, the old, and children born into disadvantaged backgrounds. His belief of limited govern-ment also does not preclude the setting up of government health and social insurance - in fact, he suggested that governments might be best placed to insure individuals against catastrophic risks. So it is perhaps surprising to some read-HUV� WKDW� +D\HN� SHQQHG� LQ� �� DQ� HVVD\�QDPHG�¶:K\�,�DP�QRW�D�&RQVHUYDWLYH·��+H�argues that conservatism per se does not constitute a political programme. It could only act against forces of change, without suggesting new directions of its own. His DVVHVVPHQW�KDV�EHHQ�SURYHQ�ÁDZHG��,Q�WKH��V��LW�ZDV�D�FRQVHUYDWLYH�8.�SROLWLFLDQ�who tore apart the British post-war con-sensus in favour of free market economy. This year, self-proclaimed conservatives LQ� WKH�8�6��&RQJUHVV�SXVK� WKH�FRXQWU\� WR�the brink of default, which would have SHUPDQHQWO\� DOWHUHG� 8�6�� ÀQDQFLDO� FUHG-LELOLW\�� ¶&RQVHUYLQJ·�QR� ORQJHU� VHHPHG� WR�EH�D�SULRULW\�WR�8�6��FRQVHUYDWLYHV�� On a deeper level, Hayek was extremely suspicious of the dynamics of conservative SROLWLFV�� 7KH� ÀUVW� DVSHFW� RI� FRQVHUYDWLYH�dynamics that he disliked was the tenden-cy to promote moral and / or religious con-victions through state coercion. He says ¶7R�OLYH�DQG�ZRUN�VXFFHVVIXOO\�ZLWKRWKHUV�UHTXLUHV� PRUH� WKDQ� IDLWKIXOQHVV� WR� RQH·V�concrete aims. It requires an intellectual commitment to a type of order in which, even on issues to one is fundamental; oth-HUV�DUH�DOORZHG�WR�SXUVXH�GLIIHUHQW�HQGV·��Hayek would have likely taken exception to the overt religiosity and claimed moral superiority of American conservatism as LW�VWDQGV��0RUHRYHU��+D\HN�ÀQGV�WKDW�SHR-ple with a conservative attitude are more likely to reject a piece of well-established knowledge because of its implications. An LPPLJUDQW�WR�WKH�8.��+D\HN�ZDV�DOVRVXV-picious of the kind of strident nationalism often heralded by conservative politicians. Hayek would have been very ill at ease in the company of his current American fans.

Machiavelli considered fortune to be HOXVLYH�²�D�IHPDOH�ÀJXUH�WR�EH�VHGXFHG�E\�princes and rulers, in fact. Whilst we might have departed from the classical repub-licanism of Florence, the point about the nature of politics has surely stayed with us. A day is a long time in Washington, and any miscalculation from the Obama administration could yet put the damp-ers on the Democratic run for the White +RXVH� LQ� �� 3XEOLF� SROLWLFDO� PHPRU\�LV�QRWRULRXVO\� VKRUW�� DQG� WKRXJK� WKH��shutdownwill have to be tackled head on by any GOP candidate, time enough ex-ists for the Party to turn its image around and redeem its electoral credibility. Two YLVLRQV� RI� WKH� 5HSXEOLFDQ� 3DUW\·V� IXWXUH�VWDQG�VLGH�E\�VLGH�DV�$PHULFD�HQWHUV��IRU�WKH�VDNH�RI�WKH�ZRUOG·V�PRVW�UHSXWDEOH�GHPRFUDF\�� RQH� KDV� WRKRSH� WKDW� WKH� ��shutdown was the beginning of a renais-sance of a truly representative political or-ganisation.

Americas .


��*XDWHPDOD��DV�PDQ\�RWKHU�/DWLQ�$PHUL-can countries, underwent a brutal period of internal armed struggle during the Cold War. The CIA orchestrated the overthrow RI�-DFRER�ÉUEHQ]�ŮV�UHIRUPLVW�JRYHUQPHQW�LQ� �� DQG� LQ� GRLQJ� VR� VXSSUHVVHG� WKH�hopes of the poor majority for a more just social order. Guatemala was and remains RQH�RI�WKH�PRVW�XQHTXDO�VRFLHWLHV�LQ�/DWLQ�America. As elsewhere, guerrilla organisa-WLRQV�EHJDQ�WR�HPHUJH�LQ�WKH��V�� These early insurgents drew their sup-SRUW� EDVH� IURP� WKH�PRVWO\� /DGLQR� �ZKLWH�SHDVDQW�� SRSXODWLRQ�RI� WKH� VRXWK� DQG� HDVW�of the county, and were quickly defeated.5HJURXSLQJ� LQ� 0H[LFR�� WKH� JXHUULOODV� UH�entered Guatemala from the north, where they set up their operating centres in the mostly indigenous highlands. Tradition-ally and structurally excluded since the Spanish Conquest, the Mayan descendants ZHUHLGHQWLÀHG�DV�D�VWUDWHJLF�VXSSRUW�JURXS�by the guerrilla, and many were recruited by the insurgents under promises of a more equitable society. ��7KH�PLOLWDU\�FRXS�RI��EURXJKW�DERXW�a frantic and ferocious counterinsurgency FDPSDLJQ��ZKLFK�UHDFKHG�LWV�SHDN�LQ��GXULQJ�WKH�SUHVLGHQF\�RI�*HQHUDO�(IUDtQ�5tRV� 0RQWW�� 7KH� +LVWRULFDO� &ODULÀFDWLRQ�Commission – a truth and reconciliation FRPPLVVLRQ� HVWDEOLVKHG� LQ� �� ²� FRQ-cluded in its report that some acts commit-ted during that period legally constitute the

crime of genocide. The military never left the political arena, but ceded governance to civilians LQ� D� VHOI�RUFKHVWUDWHG� WUDQVLWLRQ� LQ� ��Nevertheless, factual political power and autonomy was retained by the armed forces, and guaranteed impunity to the PLOLWDU\�RIÀFLDOV� UHVSRQVLEOH� IRU� WKH�YLR-lent excesses of the preceding years. In the following two decades, however, military pre-eminence was increasingly challenged,as Guatemalan civil society resurged from the ashes of its paralysis during the civil war. � � � � �7KH�FDVH�DJDLQVW�5tRV�0RQWW�ZDV�RI-ÀFLDOO\�WDNHQ�XS�E\�WKH�MXGLFLDU\�LQ��evidence and arguments for the case have, however, been under preparation for years, mostly by human rights organisa-tions. ��2Q�WKH��WK�RI�0D\��*HQHUDO�5tRV�0RQWW�ZDV�FRQYLFWHG�DQG�VHQWHQFHG�WR��years in prison on the charge of genocide. /HVV�WKDQ�WZR�ZHHNV�ODWHU�� WKH�*XDWHPD-lan Constitutional Court annulled the con-viction over allegations of legal shortcom-ings of the process. The trial will resume LQ�-DQXDU\��7KH�)RUHLJQ�$IIDLUV�5HYLHZ�ZDV�JUDQW-ed an interview with the prosecutor who serves as the current Attorney General of Guatemala, Dr. Claudia Paz y Paz. We ZRXOG� OLNH� WR� WKDQN�'U��5RGG\�%UHWW� IRU�facilitating this interview.

JO, FAR: What do these criminal pro-ceeding signify to the Guatemalan people?

Dr. Paz y Paz: It was a possibility for the victims to access justice and be present before the perpetrator in equality before a court, and to tell the truth about what hap-pened to them. It was a possibility for Guatemalan so-ciety to understand that under the rule of law, every person is accountable; even if LW� ŮV�D� IRUPHU�FKLHI�RI�JRYHUQPHQW��KH�RU�she must answer before justice for his or her actions.

JO, FAR: The trial has been going on for a long time. What are the obstacles to its resolution and how have changes in Gua-temalan society impacted on the dynamics of the trial?

Dr. Paz y Paz: One of the impacts on Gua-temalan society is the perception that jus-tice is possible. In terms of the obstacles: the perpetrators and groups that were in ac-cord with the perpetrators have embarked on a media campaign of disinformation, harassing the victims and those that ac-company the victims. Another obstacle is that the counsellors of the perpetrators have used a lot of legal resources to im-pede and prolong the trial; and ultimately to annul the trial.

Guatemala and GenocideJames Otcenasek

Former General Efrain Ríos Montt in testimony while on trial in GuatemalaImage courtesy of Elena Hermosa © 2013

Americas .


JO, FAR: Can you give some examples of support or resistance that you have en-countered during this trial – both domesti-cally and internationally?

Dr. Paz y Paz: Both supporting and op-posing voices of different actors were re-ÁHFWHG�LQ�WKH�*XDWHPDODQ�PHGLD��,QWHUQD-tionally, there was a consensus about the importance of the trial. The debate that occurred in the media notwithstanding, every citizen in Guatemala gained the un-derstanding, that even if you were a high-UDQNLQJ�JRYHUQPHQW�RIÀFLDO��\RX�FRXOG�EH�put on trial. A media campaign opposing the trial was conducted by a group in Guatemala calledthe Foundation against Terror-ism. This campaign attempted to defame some of the victims and members of hu-man rights organisations who were very active in this trial. They claimed that the demands for justice and the work of the $WWRUQH\� *HQHUDO� ŮV� RIÀFH� >SURVHFXWRU·V�RIÀFH@�ZHUH�QHZ�IRUPV�RI�WHUURULVP��ZKHQ�in fact the victims were simply exercising their rights to access justice. There were numerous voices domes-tically that supported the trial. These ar-ranged for the trial to be transmitted via the internet. Internationally, there were many newspapers supporting the trial, for example the New York Times and the /$�7LPHV��%RWK�(O�3DtV�DQG�WKH�*XDUGLDQ�published articles supporting the trial.

JO, FAR: My next question moves on a bit: how does the fact that many of the victims were indigenous translate into the trial, and what role did ethnicity play in the dynamics of the trial itself.

Dr. Paz y Paz: Ethnicity played a key role in the way the war was conducted in Guatemala, as it determined if you were a victim of the war or not. Guatemala was, and still is, a racist country.

JO, FAR: Did that racism show up in the trial as well, for example in the way the testimonies of indigenous people were viewed, or in the attitude of the public at large?

Dr. Paz y Paz: There was a big effort PDGH� E\� WKH� SURVHFXWRU·V� RIÀFH� DQG� WKH�various human rights organisations sup-SRUWLQJ� WKH� WULDO� WR� IDFLOLWDWH� WKH� YLFWLP·V�testimonies to be given in their own lan-guage. Simultaneous translation was ar-ranged in the courthouse; from Ixil [one RI� WKH��0D\DQ� ODQJXDJHV@� � WR�6SDQLVK�and back. There was also psychological support provided to the victims before and after every testimony. In the courthouse itself, ZH�GRQ�ŮW�EHOLHYH�WKHUH�ZHUH�FOHDU�PDQL-festations of racism. But there was a lot of racism in the words of the actors and the key players opposing the trial.

JO, FAR: Finally, my last question: what insights could Guatemala provide for countries that are, or may be in the future, going through similar processes?

Dr. Paz y Paz: It is very important to say, that the case was built over many years, when the trial itself was just a remote hope. All this work, over all these years, permitted that when the political and ju-dicial moment was right, the case itself could be presented before the court. The message could therefore be that the moment will come, and you have to be ready for it. You will have the opportunity to present the case before the courts for mass human rights violations.

Dr. Paz y Paz and US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton in Guatemala

Image Courtesy US Embassy © 2013

Image Courtesy Wikipedia © 2006

Posters at a strike in Guatemala City by students of the University of San Carlos

Africa


/HDUQLQJ�)URP�$IULFD·V�Success StoriesMichael Musgrave There had been rumours about dia-monds in the British Protectorate of Be-chuanaland for years. They were linked WR�VWRULHV�RI�D�/RVW�&LW\�LQ�WKH�.DODKDUL�DQG� DV� UHFHQWO\� DV� WKH� ��V�� D� VHULRXV�expedition was launched to look for it. Hunters and explorers claimed to KDYH� WUDGHG� ULÁHV� DQG� DPPXQLWLRQ� IRU�diamonds with the Kalahari Bushmen, EXW� WKH� GLVFRYHU\� RI� WKH� /RVW�&LW\� DQG�the so-called Bushman diamond pits UHPDLQHG� HOXVLYH�� ,Q� �� WKH� %HFK-uanaland Protectorate became the inde-pendent country of Botswana and, soon afterwards, diamonds were discovered in abundance. The Orapa mine opened LQ��DQG�WKH�%DWVZDQD�HFRQRP\�ZDV�transformed by this new wealth as oth-er discoveries followed. The Jwaneng PLQH�ZDV� RSHQHG� LQ� �� DQG� UHPDLQV�the richest diamond mine in the world. 7KH� /RVW� &LW\� DSSHDUV� WR� KDYH� EHHQ� D�cluster of fortuitously arranged, roughly square, dolomite blocks that looked like they were placed on top of each other. Success stories from Africa are rare, but Botswana, in many respects, is one of them. It is frequently grouped with Mauritius in this respect and, in the ¶(FRQRPLF�)UHHGRP�RI�WKH�:RUOG·�UHSRUW�published jointly by the Cato Institute, the Fraser Institute in Canada, and more WKDQ� �� WKLQN� WDQNV� DURXQG� WKH� ZRUOG��Botswana and Mauritius are shown to be the freest economies in Africa. They also have the highest per capita income in Africa. The similarities, however, end there. Botswana, roughly the size of Texas, EXW� ZLWK� D� SRSXODWLRQ� RI� RQO\� DERXW� ��million, is one of the most sparsely in-habited countries on earth. It has a rich storehouse of natural resources (gold, FRSSHU��QLFNHO�� DQG��RI� WKH�ZRUOG·V�GLDPRQGV�� DQG� LV� ODUJHO\� SRSXODWHG� E\�the Tswana people who form a clear ma-MRULW\��0DXULWLXV�LV��PLOHV�ORQJ�DQG��PLOHV�ZLGH��WKH��WK�PRVW�GHQVHO\�SRSX-lated country in the world, has no natural resources, and the population is a hetero-geneous mixture of the descendants of Indian indentured labourers, French and Dutch Settlers, Chinese traders, and Af-rican slaves. Given their economic suc-cess, what lessons can be learned from Botswana and Mauritius that could be applied to the African continent in gen-eral?

��7KH�ÀUVW�OHVVRQ�LV�WKDW�0DXULWLXV�KDV�QRWK-ing to do with Africa. Although grouped with Africa in membership of international institutions because of its geographical lo-FDWLRQ��NLORPHWUHV�RII�WKH�HDVW�FRDVW�RI�the continent, the country shares very little in common with Africa. It was uninhabited before the arrival of European settlers and GRHV�QRW�KDYH�D�GHPRJUDSKLF�SURÀOH��KLV-tory, or language that is remotely similar to any African country. Mauritian mem-EHUVKLS�RI�WKH�$IULFDQ�8QLRQ�LV�VLJQLÀFDQW��but only in as much as they have a voice, and therefore the potential to represent eco-nomic freedom and good governance in an organisation that is not well known for sup-porting either. Given that they have little in common with other member states, their LQÁXHQFH�LV�OLNHO\�WR�EH�PLQLPDO��&UXFLDOO\��membership of the club appears to require a number of years of suffering under colo-nial rule and, therefore, an eternal claim to an escape clause with respect to adhering to basic principles of democracy and good governance. In terms of what Mauritius has in common with Africa, it would be equal-ly valid to draw conclusions from another densely populated island state like Singa-pore. There are lessons to be learned from both, but not because Mauritius is closer to Africa. Botswana on the other hand, shares a history common to many African coun-WULHV��6LWXDWHG�EHWZHHQ�5KRGHVLD�DQG�6RXWK�Africa, the Tswana Chiefs were forced to make regular representation to the British government (and to Queen Victoria herself RQ�RFFDVLRQ��FRQFHUQLQJ�WKH�WHUULWRULDO�DP-bitions of Afrikaners in the Transvaal and &HFLO�5KRGHV·�VHWWOHUV�WR�WKH�QRUWKHDVW��7KH�British Government responded in the same way it did with Basutoland and Swaziland - it declared a protectorate which stopped territorial claims but did not obligate the British government to undertake any ex-penditure for administering what was con-sidered a wasteland. After independence LQ� �� %RWVZDQD·V� ÀUVW� 3UHVLGHQW�� 6LU�Seretse Khama chose a carefully planned political strategy that would not provide an H[FXVH�IRU�6RXWK�$IULFDQ�RU�5KRGHVLDQ�DJ-gression. Moderate, capitalist, democratic, and, with his British wife, a perfect coun-WHUSRLQW� WR� 6RXWK� $IULFD·V� UDFLDO� SROLFLHV��DQG�WR�HPHUJLQJ�SDQ�$IULFDQ�H[WUHPLVP��Khama earned the respect of all parties in the region without indulging in Julius Nyerere or Kenneth Kaunda-style African socialism and autocratic, one-party rule.Botswana was inclusive from the very VWDUW�� $� IRUPHU� FRORQLDO� RIÀFHU� GHVLJQHG�WKH�FRORXUV�DQG� WKH�ÁDJ�RI� WKH�QHZ�FRXQ-

try, the national anthem was written by the leader of the opposition. It was unique and simple and not just another version of 1NRVL� 6LNHOHO·� L$IULND� KDVWLO\� DVVHPEOHG�in the local language. Newly independent Tanzania, Zambia, and later Zimbabwe, all used the same tune in what can only be described as a highly unoriginal attempt to occupy the national anthem high ground of newly independent Africa, rather than build a new national identity. Corruption in Botswana was vigorously opposed from the start and there are regular prosecutions when it does occur. Sir Seretse Khama was economically cautious and his approach to Botswana

developing its own currency and moving DZD\� IURP� WKH� 6RXWK� $IULFDQ� 5DQG� ZDV�UHYHDOLQJ��5HSRUWV�LQGLFDWH�WKDW�KH�ZDV�DO-most incredulous that a small country like %RWVZDQD�FRXOG�VXSSRUW�D�FXUUHQF\��5DWKHU�than leap at the chance of putting his face on a new and worthless note, the value of WKH�3XOD�ZDV�LQLWLDOO\�SHJJHG�WR�WKH�5DQG��$V� LQYHVWRUV� GHYHORSHG� PRUH� FRQÀGHQFH�LQ� %RWVZDQD�� DQG� WKH� FRXQWU\·V� HFRQRP\�expanded, the Pula has developed into a mature currency that holds its own when events in South Africa lead to a drop in the YDOXH�RI�WKH�5DQG�UHODWLYH�WR�RWKHU�FXUUHQ-cies. More recently Botswana has exhibited OHDGHUVKLS� UHJLRQDOO\� LQ� WKH� ÀJKW� DJDLQVW�HIV/AIDS. While Thabo Mbeki in South Africa was supporting the view of dissident scientists that HIV does not cause AIDS, and that antiretrovirals were toxic, Sir Ke-tumile Masire in Botswana was negotiating with the pharmaceutical giant Merck and the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation to ÀJKW� WKH� GLVHDVH��$V� D� FRQVHTXHQFH�� DQWL-retrovirals are free to everyone in Botswa-na and have played a major role in slowing the spread of HIV/AIDS. After a lengthy court battle, South Africans now have lim-ited access to the drugs. This access to an-ti-retrovirals, while scant, is surely an im-provement over the policies of the former health minister, who advocated treatment with lemon juice, garlic, and beetroot. Mauritius has not always been pros-perous. For many years after independence IURP� %ULWDLQ� LQ� �� VXJDU� SURGXFWLRQ�FRQVWLWXWHG� ��RI� WKH� FRXQWU\·V� LQFRPH��/LWHUDF\�DQG�OLIH�H[SHFWDQF\�ZHUH�ORZ�DQG�population growth was high. The vagaries

“In terms of what Mauritius has in common with Africa, it would be equally valid to draw conclusions from another densely populated is-

land state like Singapore”

Africa .


of nature and the international sugar mar-ket were the chief determinants of prosper-ity or poverty. Wise leadership and mod-erate political choices were made when WKH� FRXQWU\� EHFDPH� D� UHSXEOLF� LQ� ��$� YLJRURXV� GHPRFUDF\� ÁRXULVKHG� XQGHU�autonomous institutions like the electoral commission. The Mauritian government PDLQWDLQHG�WKH�3ULY\�&RXQFLO�RI�WKH�8QLW-ed Kingdom as the ultimate Court of Ap-peal, and property rights and laws of con-WUDFW� DUH� UHVSHFWHG�� /RZ� FRPSDQ\� WD[� RI�� KHOSHG�PDQXIDFWXULQJ� EXVLQHVVHV� WR�take advantage of the African Growth and 2SSRUWXQLW\�$FW� �$*2$�� SDVVHG� E\� WKH�86�&RQJUHVV�LQ��ZKLFK�IHZ�$IULFDQ�countries have taken advantage of. There is a general tone of compassion and cooperation from the private sector in both countries. In clear recognition of the VRFLDO�SUREOHPV�DQG�FRQÀGHQW�WKDW�JRYHUQ-ment is determined to create conditions XQGHU�ZKLFK�EXVLQHVV�FDQ�ÁRXULVK��WKH�SUL-vate sector plays an important role in so-cial responsibility. What is clear is that the government and the private sector work FORVHO\�WR�PDNH�WKLQJV�ZRUN�IRU�WKH�EHQHÀW�of both the people and business. Mauritius in particular has worked hard to encourage an entrepreneurial attitude among its peo-ple and this helps demythologise business so that it is perceived as a path to prosper-ity rather than feeding off the wealth of the country.��%RWK�FRXQWULHV�KDYH�EHQHÀWWHG�IURP�wise leadership early in their climb to-wards a higher standard of living for their people. Ideology and political rhetoric, particularly the socialist, anti-colonial rhetoric that has so dominated post-inde-pendence African countries plays no part in the daily life of Batswana or Mauritians. Mauritius never shared the history that

ZRXOG�KDYH�MXVWLÀHG�WKLV�UKHWRULF�DQ\ZD\��but Botswana did and they chose a middle path that earned the respect of everyone. Botswana has recently differed with other African countries in the African 8QLRQ�UHJDUGLQJ�WKH�UROH�RI�WKH�,QWHUQDWLRQ-al Criminal Court in Kenya and the recent elections in Zimbabwe. Much has been PDGH� RI� %RWVZDQD·V� LVRODWLRQ� LQ� WKLV� UH-gard, and whispers of its close relationship ZLWK�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�VHHP�WR�VXJJHVW�WKDW�Botswana is a stooge of the West. Nothing could be further from the truth. Botswana has always taken a role that differs sub-stantially from the stereotypical African nationalist and anti-Western politics of other African countries. It has managed to do so in a way that maintains the integrity of the country in the eyes of other African countries, whilst adhering to principles of law and order that are becoming a hallmark RI�%RWVZDQD·V�UROH�LQ�$IULFD� Mauritius chose to take a less confron-tational stance to the issue of Zimbabwean elections that may indicate that maintaining UHODWLRQV�ZLWKLQ�WKH�$IULFDQ�8QLRQ�LV�PRUH�important to the government of Mauritius WKDQ� WU\LQJ� WR� H[HUW� LQÁXHQFH� RYHU�ZKHUH�it probably has none. African countries are

“Ideology and political rhetoric, particularly the socialist, anti-colo-nial rhetoric that has so dominated post-independence African coun-

tries plays no part in the daily life of Batswana or Mauritians. Mauritius never shared the history that would have justified this rhetoric anyway, but Botswana did and they chose a middle path that earned the respect

of everyone

important trading partners of Mauritius and the country is actively seeking to expand those links. It has signed several tax treaties with African countries aimed at making equitable taxation a reality in order to encourage investment by Mauri-tian based companies in Africa. It is possible that the stability of Bo-WVZDQD�PD\�QRW�FRQWLQXH�LQGHÀQLWHO\��Conveniently ignored by most analysts is the fact that Botswana has never had a change of government. Presidents have changed regularly, but the Botswana Democratic Party has ruled since inde-SHQGHQFH�DQG�FXUUHQWO\�KROGV��RI� WKH��VHDWV�LQ�SDUOLDPHQW��(OHFWLRQV�DUH�JHQ-erally free and fair and there is a strong tradition of consulting the people before any major decisions are made which goes back to pre-colonial times. Howev-er, worrying indications of intolerance, including a clampdown on the press and deportation of academics that describe ,DQ�.KDPD·V�*RYHUQPHQW�DV�¶DXWKRULWDU-LDQ·�QHHG�WR�EH�DGGUHVVHG��,Q�WKLV�UHVSHFW�Botswana may have something to learn from Mauritius, which tops most rank-ings of democratic freedom and appears to run a genuinely open and vigorous de-mocracy, with coalitions between parties often necessary to form a government. So what lessons can these two success stories give to Africa? In many respects the fact that they are in or close to Africa is not relevant. Economic free-dom, strong democratic institutions, low taxation and wise, moderate leadership are recipes for economic success in any part of the world. What may be relevant is that fostering continued resentment towards the West and its institutions may not be the best idea for the African 8QLRQ��0DLQWDLQLQJ�VWURQJ�UHODWLRQVKLSV�with former colonial countries, which still hold considerable economic and in-stitutional power, would be of far more EHQHÀW�WKDQ�FRQWLQXDOO\�HUHFWLQJ�WKH�FR-lonial experience as an excuse for poor governance, human rights violations and autocratic rule. At the same time, em-bracing the emerging might of India and China makes sense for any country, but it does not require throwing out the baby ZLWK� WKH� EDWKZDWHU��7KH�$IULFDQ�8QLRQ�would be a far more credible an institu-tion if it moderated its response to issues LQ� WKH� :HVW� DQG� IROORZHG� %RWVZDQD·V�lead, while at the same time following the example of Mauritius by starting to genuinely liberalise their domestic mar-kets and nurturing independent and cred-ible democratic institutions.

Maurititus lies 2,000 km off the coast of Africa

”

Africa


Trapped in Chains: The Plague of Modern-Day SlaveryJennifer Morton� � � � �+LVWRU\�ERRNV� WHOO� WKH��\HDU� VWRU\�of one of the most unfathomable practices ever engaged in by mankind – of human beings bought, sold and traded as com-modities, and of men and women shackled together on slave ships destined towards a life of captivity. Today, Article four of WKH�8QLWHG�1DWLRQV�'HFODUDWLRQ�RI�+XPDQ�5LJKWV�DIÀUPV�WKDW��́ 1R�RQH�VKDOO�EH�KHOG�LQ�slavery or servitude; slavery and the slave WUDGH�VKDOO�EH�SURKLELWHG�LQ�DOO�WKHLU�IRUPVµ��This is indicative of the radical transforma-tion of the international community in its attitude towards an inhumane practice that should have never been allowed to occur.Yet, the history books are incomplete, as slavery is not over. Modern-day slavery is a hidden epidemic that continues to haunt the lives of millions every day. It is pro-foundly disturbing to imagine that slavery in any form exists today. Even more wor-rying is the fact that the ubiquity of slavery has almost certainly been underestimated GXH� WR� WKH�SURIRXQG�GLIÀFXOWLHV� UHODWHG� WR�the gathering of data about this insidious crime. This has translated into a lack of awareness about slavery, and has mani-fested itself in terms of political inaction. As long as slavery is out of sight, it is out of mind.��5HFHQWO\��KRZHYHU��WKH�LVVXH�RI�PRGHUQ�slavery has been broached. After years of synthesising and evaluating huge expanses of data, the Walk Free Foundation has pro-GXFHG� WKH�ZRUOG·V�ÀUVW� HYHU�*OREDO� ,QGH[�on Slavery, which measures the preva-OHQFH�RI�VODYHU\�LQ��FRXQWULHV�DFURVV�WKH�globe. With the report bringing slavery out of the shadows, governments can no longer hide behind the excuse of ignorance in or-der to keep slavery off the agenda. The in-dex has laid the foundational groundwork IRU�WKH�ÀJKW�DJDLQVW�VODYHU\��,W�LV�QRZ�XS�WR�WKH�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�FRPPXQLW\�WR�XVH�LWV�ÀQG-ings in order to decisively advance towards a slave-free world. The global index suggests that modern-day slavery occurs at a level of severity XQSUHFHGHQWHG�LQ�SUHYLRXV�ÀJXUHV�� ,W�HVWL-PDWHV� WKDW�D�VWDJJHULQJ��PLOOLRQ�SHRSOH�are affected by modern-day slavery world-ZLGH�� 7KH� LQGH[� GHÀQHV� VODYHU\� DV� ´WKH�condition of treating another person as if they were property – something to be ERXJKW�� VROG�� WUDGHG� RU� HYHQ� GHVWUR\HGµ��and includes forced labour and human traf-ÀFNLQJ� XQGHU� WKH� XPEUHOOD� WHUP� RI�PRG-ern-day slavery. This most sobering aspect RI� WKH� UHSRUW·V�ÀQGLQJV� LV� WKDW�� RI� WKH� ��

ELOOLRQ�SHRSOH�LQ�WKH��FRXQWULHV�LQYHV-tigated, every single country has members of its population living in this unaccept-ably cruel condition. It is undeniable that slavery is a truly global problem. Its complex and diverse manifestation worldwide means there can EH� QR� RQH�VL]H�ÀWV�DOO� VROXWLRQ�� (QGLQJ�modern-day slavery requires a multifacet-ed approach involving individual govern-ments, non-governmental organisations �1*2V��DQG�²�PRVW�LPSRUWDQWO\�²�D�VROLG�commitment from the international com-munity. For some, the haunting reality of life as a slave is all they have ever known. The country topping the global index with WKH� ZRUOG·V� KLJKHVW� SUHYDOHQFH� RI� VODY-HU\�LV�0DXULWDQLD��'XEEHG�´VODYHU\·V�ODVW�VWURQJKROGµ�E\�&11��0DXULWDQLD�VWLOO�KDV�XS�WR��RI�LWV�SRSXODWLRQ�HQVODYHG��3HR-ple can be bought, sold and given away as gifts. The most pressing obstacle to com-bating slavery in Mauritania is that slav-ery is not just a practice – it is a mindset. Slaves are indoctrinated to accept their situation, and religion is often invoked DV�D� MXVWLÀFDWRU\�GHYLFH�²� WKDW� VODYHU\� LV�*RG·V� FRPPDQG�� 7KH� VKDPHIXO� ODFN� RI�DZDUHQHVV�ZRUOGZLGH�DERXW�VODYHU\·V�QRU-malization in some parts of the world can EH�UHFWLÀHG�E\�WKH�UHYHODWLRQV�RI�WKH�JORE-al index. For these revelations to have any

impact, they must be backed up by action. The situation in Mauritania is unique because change cannot start from within. The Mauritian government continues to vehemently deny the existence of slavery. The country became the last in the world WR� FULPLQDOLVH� VODYHU\� LQ� �� DQG� WKLV�was largely due to international pressure. Since then, only one slave-owner has been prosecuted, and no law enforcement strat-HJ\�H[LVWV�WR�DGGUHVV�VODYHU\��7KH�ÀQGLQJV�of the index prove that it is untenable to refute that endemic slavery exists in Mau-ritania. However, implementing change will simply not occur without sustained in-ternational pressure on the government. A comprehensive strategy for change begins with letting the Mauritian government know the world is watching. In turn, tar-geted pressure must be followed by lend-ing support to local NGOs and grassroots initiatives – which are currently hunted by the Mauritian government – which seek to challenge deeply embedded cultural values, hold masters accountable, and empower freed slaves. The involvement of the international community is of para-

“Mauritania still has up to 20% of its population enslaved. People can be bought, sold and given

away as gifts”

Slavery has long been a part of Mauritanias’ history

Africa .


mount importance. Heightened awareness is the key to ensuring that no Mauritanian believes that their destiny is to be a slave.However, slavery is not just a problem that occurs in distant lands. In fact, modern-day slavery happens right here on our doorstep. In a world in which geographical distance is often an excuse to sideline issues that are, so to speak, not in our backyard, the revelation that the slavery problem is on HYHU\� FRXQWU\·V� UDGDU� PD\� SURYLGH� WKH�needed impetus for slavery to be given the heightened concern it deserves.��7KH�8.�LV�D�FRXQWU\�WKDW�KDV�PDGH�WLPLG�VWHSV�WR�ÀJKW�VODYHU\��EXW�LW�ODFNV�WKH�SROLWL-cal will to venture any further. The index UHSRUWV�WKDW�WKHUH�DUH�RYHU��SHRSOH�LQ�WKH�8.�ZKR�DUH�HQVODYHG��7KH�8.·V�VODY-ery problem is deeply enmeshed in the pri-vate business sector, and the use of slav-ery insidiously lurks in the supply chains of leading corporations. One notable case LQ��LQYROYHG�WKH�UHYHODWLRQ�WKDW�1REOH�Foods, the Happy Egg company supplying eggs to leading retailers including Asda, Tesco, M&S and Sainsburys, had used a ODERXU�SURYLGHU�ZKLFK�LQ�WXUQ�XVHG�/LWKX-anian workers as slaves. Through debt bondage, the provider forced their slaves WR� ZRUN� ZLWKRXW� SD\� IRU� XS� WR� �� KRXUV�by day, and sleep in squalid overcrowded accommodation by night. Deprived of all freedoms, these people were stuck in a vi-cious cycle with no option of leaving.

� � � � �7KH�8.�KDV�WDNHQ�VRPH�PHDVXUHV�WR�address modern-day slavery in the corpo-UDWH�ZRUOG��7KH�7UDQVSDUHQF\�LQ�8.�&RP-SDQ\�6XSSO\�&KDLQV�%LOO��7,6&��EXLOGV�RQ�successful legislation in California, and UHTXLUHV� HYHU\� FRPSDQ\� LQ� WKH�8.�ZLWK�JURVV� UHFHLSWV� H[FHHGLQJ� �� ELOOLRQ� WR�publicly disclose their efforts to eradicate VODYHU\��7KH�&HQWUH�IRU�6RFLDO�-XVWLFH�5H-SRUW� ´,W� +DSSHQV� +HUHµ� DUJXHV� WKDW� WKLV�OHJLVODWLRQ�ZLOO�´HQJDJH�WKH�EXVLQHVV�VHF-WRU� LQ� WKH� ÀJKW� DJDLQVW�PRGHUQ� VODYHU\µ��The Bill was heralded by David Cameron DV�HYLGHQFH�RI�WKH�8.�VWRUPLQJ�DKHDG�WR�´OHDG�WKH�ZRUOG�LQ�HUDGLFDWLQJ�PRGHUQ�GD\�VODYHU\µ� Yet in reality, this legislation is woe-fully inadequate to make any difference on slavery whatsoever. TISC legislation DSSOLHV�RQO\�WR�WKH�ODUJHVW�ÀUPV��UHTXLUHV�meager self-regulatory reporting, and simply does not propose any change to prevailing business models. The impact this supposedly revolutionary legislation ZLOO� KDYH� LQ� WKH� ÀJKW� DJDLQVW� VODYHU\� LV�almost laughable, and is symptomatic of reluctance amongst policy elites to tackle slavery through the economic sphere.� � � � �7KH�8.·V�SROLWLFDO�ZLQGRZ�GUHVVLQJ�is evidenced when compared to Brazil – a country clearly possessed of the political will to address slavery. The country has implemented a nationwide system of en-forcement mechanisms, sanctions and in-

centives for businesses. This could have a real and substantive impact on slavery in the corporate world. However, one coun-WU\·V� SROLWLFDO� ZLOO� FDQQRW� HQG� D� JOREDO�problem. Ending slavery once and for all requires the international community to be inclined to implement a governing mecha-nism on an international scale. Such inter-national policy options will only become viable if the international community em-EUDFHV�WKH�LQGH[·V�ÀQGLQJV�DQG�UHFRJQLVHV�slavery as pressing on the global agenda. The shackled slaves of the transatlantic slave trade may belong to the past. How-ever, the invisible chains trapping millions around the world into a life of modern-day slavery do not. A lack of awareness sur-rounding this crime has allowed the issue to be pushed to the bottom of the political DJHQGD�IRU�WRR�ORQJ��7KH�DODUPLQJ�ÀQGLQJV�of the Walk Free Global Index on Slav-ery are a wake-up call to the world that this crime cannot be ignored any longer. Slavery is a problem with many faces, and requires a comprehensive international response. Slavery must be on the agenda of individual governments and NGOs, on the agenda of the international communi-ty, and on the agenda of every individual worldwide. There must be a sustained ef-fort to end slavery in its modern-day form. 7KH�ÀQDO�FKDSWHU�RQ�VODYHU\�PXVW�EH�ZULW-ten to allow the history books on slavery to be closed once and for all.

A riot in the streets over the state of slavery in MauritaniaImage courtesy of Magharebia © 2011

Syria .


Is Syria in revolution?��́ 6\ULD�WRGD\�UHÁHFWV�WKH�SURFHVV�E\�ZKLFK�revolutions have been incited in the past. 6\ULD�KDV�OLYHG�XQGHU�D�GLFWDWRUVKLS�IRU�ÀIW\�years. People lacked employment. Poverty OHYHOV�UHDFKHG��SHU�FHQW��&RUUXSWLRQ�ZDV�rampant. Many people became very rich. Many more suffered from poverty. The Syrian regime was governed by the Alawite minority, who received prefer-ential treatment by the regime. Yet many others were neglected, especially in the YLOODJHV��DQG�ZHUH�GHSULYHG�RI�HGXFDWLRQ�µ The Syrian revolution is a revolution for justice, for the rule of law. It demands freedom for those imprisoned for politi-cal reasons. Today, Syria lacks the funda-mentals of the rule of law, it suffers from a corrupt system of justice and it knows no VRFLDO�V\VWHP�µ

How did it begin?��´7KH�SHRSOH�RI�6\ULD�VDZ�ZKDW�KDSSHQHG�

LQ�7XQLVLD�DQG�(J\SW�LQ�HDUO\��,Q�UH-sponse to these events, the children of the WRZQ�RI�'DU·D��FKLOGUHQ�EHWZHHQ�WKH�DJHV�RI� WZHOYH� DQG� ÀIWHHQ�� SXEOLFO\� FULWLFL]HG�the Syrian regime.� � � � � �7KH�FKLOGUHQ�RI�'DU·D�ZHUH�DUUHVWHG�and tortured in jail. Non-violent demon-strators demanded the release of the chil-GUHQ�RI�'DU·D��3HRSOH�GLVWULEXWHG�ÁRZHUV�and water. Yet non-violence only carried the revolution for six months.��,Q�6HSWHPEHU�RI��FLYLO�DFWLYLVW�*KL-ath Mattar was arrested and tortured. His lifeless body was returned to his mother. Killings and targeted rape became wide-spread, a parallel to the Iranian regime, when the regime endeavoured to stop the ,UDQLDQ�UHYROXWLRQ�LQ�� It is important to remember that many KLJK�UDQNLQJ� RIÀFHUV� LQ� WKH� 6\ULDQ�PLOL-tary are Alawites. The strategy pursued E\�WKH�UHJLPH�IRU�ÀIW\�\HDUV�ZDV�WR�LQVWDOO�Alawite leadership within the military,

so that the Alawites would become indis-pensable to national security and to the FRPPDQG�VWUXFWXUH�RI�WKH�DUP\�µ

So Assad has abused fears of an ethnic FRQÁLFW�WR�PDLQWDLQ�SRZHU"� � �´,QGHHG� LW� LV� LQ� WKH� LQWHUHVW�RI�SUHVHUY-ing this power structure, that the Syrian regime promotes the notion that the Syr-ian revolution is a civil war and more spe-FLÀFDOO\�� D� VHFWDULDQ� FRQÁLFW��7KH� UHJLPH�is trying to frighten the Syrian minorities with the prospect of sectarian violence. This is wrong. The regime tries to spread the notion that it is protecting minorities, VXFK� DV� WKH�$ODZLWHV� �D� 6KLLWH� VHFW�� WKDW�Sunnis will kill them [if Assad is toppled].

Is Syria in revolution?� � � ´6\ULD� WRGD\� UHÁHFWV� WKH� SURFHVV� E\�which revolutions have been incited in the past. Syria has lived under a dictatorship IRU�ÀIW\�\HDUV��3HRSOH�ODFNHG�HPSOR\PHQW��

The Syrian Revolution: An Interview with Hind Kabawat

Liliane Stadler

The conflict in Syria is not a civil war, but a revolution, argues Syrian activist Hind Kabawat in this poignant interview. Speaking from a refugee camp in Turkey home to thousands of displaced Syrians, Hind offers a first hand account of the devastation the conflict has visited on her country, and what can be done to end it.

Syrian refugees in Turkey, sign reads “Your knowledge is your peace”

Image courtesy of Hind Kabawat © 2013

Syria .


3RYHUW\� OHYHOV� UHDFKHG� �� SHU� FHQW�� &RU-ruption was rampant. Many people became very rich. Many more suffered from pov-erty. The Syrian regime was governed by the Alawite minority, who received prefer-ential treatment by the regime. Yet many others were neglected, especially in the YLOODJHV��DQG�ZHUH�GHSULYHG�RI�HGXFDWLRQ�µ The Syrian revolution is a revolution for justice, for the rule of law. It demands free-dom for those imprisoned for political rea-sons. Today, Syria lacks the fundamentals of the rule of law, it suffers from a corrupt system of justice and it knows no social V\VWHP�µ

How did it begin?��´7KH�SHRSOH�RI�6\ULD�VDZ�ZKDW�KDSSHQHG�LQ�7XQLVLD�DQG�(J\SW�LQ�HDUO\��,Q�UH-sponse to these events, the children of the WRZQ�RI�'DU·D��FKLOGUHQ�EHWZHHQ�WKH�DJHV�RI� WZHOYH� DQG� ÀIWHHQ�� SXEOLFO\� FULWLFL]HG�the Syrian regime.��7KH�FKLOGUHQ�RI�'DU·D�ZHUH�DUUHVWHG�DQG�tortured in jail. Non-violent demonstra-tors demanded the release of the children RI� 'DU·D�� 3HRSOH� GLVWULEXWHG� ÁRZHUV� DQG�water. Yet non-violence only carried the revolution for six months.��,Q�6HSWHPEHU�RI��FLYLO�DFWLYLVW�*KL-ath Mattar was arrested and tortured. His lifeless body was returned to his mother. Killings and targeted rape became wide-spread, a parallel to the Iranian regime, when the regime endeavoured to stop the ,UDQLDQ�UHYROXWLRQ�LQ�� It is important to remember that many KLJK�UDQNLQJ�RIÀFHUV�LQ�WKH�6\ULDQ�PLOLWDU\�are Alawites. The strategy pursued by the UHJLPH� IRU� ÀIW\� \HDUV� ZDV� WR� LQVWDOO�$OD-wite leadership within the military, so that the Alawites would become indispensable to national security and to the command VWUXFWXUH�RI�WKH�DUP\�µ

So Assad has abused fears of an ethnic FRQÁLFW�WR�PDLQWDLQ�SRZHU"��´,QGHHG�LW�LV�LQ�WKH�LQWHUHVW�RI�SUHVHUYLQJ��this power structure, that the Syrian regime promotes the notion that the Syrian revo-OXWLRQ�LV�D�FLYLO�ZDU�DQG�PRUH�VSHFLÀFDOO\��D� VHFWDULDQ� FRQÁLFW�� 7KH� UHJLPH� LV� WU\-ing to frighten the Syrian minorities with the prospect of sectarian violence. This is wrong. The regime tries to spread the no-tion that it is protecting minorities, such DV�WKH�$ODZLWHV��D�6KLLWH�VHFW��WKDW�6XQQLV�will kill them [if Assad is toppled]. This is wrong. So many Christians, Dru-ze and Alawites have taken the side of the revolution. They do not believe the rheto-ric used by the regime.

Yet neither do they believe in the rheto-ric and the actions of extremist groups. I, myself a Christian, have gone to the liberated areas, where the Islamists are, for over a year now. I am accepted there. 7KH�\RXQJ�SHRSOH�FDOO�PH�´PRWKHUµ��:H�love one another as Syrians. You could see this clearly, when Al Qaeda burned a &KXUFK�LQ�$U�5DTTD�DQG�SHRSOH�RI�DOO�UH-ligious beliefs protested against this. This LV�ZKDW�WKH\�VDLG��´7KH�6\ULDQ�SHRSOH�DUH�RQHµ�� ,� KDYH� VKDUHG�EUHDG�ZLWK�0XVOLPV�in the past, even though they can tell I am a Christian. The people of Syria are not VHFWDULDQ��7KH\�DUH�QRW�IDQDWLFV�µ

What would you say to allegations that WKH�FRQÁLFW�KDV�EHHQ�FR�RSWHG�E\�VRPH�PRUH� UDGLFDO� JURXSV� VXFK� DV� WKH� $O�1XVUD�IURQW��FORVH�DIÀOLDWHV�RI�$O�4DLGD"��́ ,�DP�GLVDSSRLQWHG�ZLWK�WKH�SHRSOH�ZKR�label the Syrian revolution with Islamism,

extremism and Al Qaida. There are people in the revolution, who are religious, yes. The majority of the dead are Sunnis. But this does not make the revolution Sunni and it does not make it the revolution of Al Qaeda. It is a human revolution. We are against Al Qaeda and the jihadists! We are against Bashar al Assad! They are two faces of the same coin. Both want to kill the Syrian people, to have no rule of law, no democracy, to kill civilians and civilian actors. It is the regime, which encourages Wah-habism and extremism. Ask yourself: Why did President Assad grant a presidential SDUGRQ�LQ��"�:K\�GLG�KH�UHOHDVH�$ERX�Omar al Baghdadi, who now heads Al Qa-

eda in Syria, from of prison, when he kept my friend Abdelaziz al Khayer in prison? My friend is a modern man and he is lib-eral. The answer is this: Assad wants to give the Syrians only two options. It is a choice between himself and Al Qaeda. But Al Qaeda is not the revolution. Many actors in the revolution are against Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda receives support from no more than ��SHU�FHQW�RI�WKH�SRSXODWLRQ��7KH\�GR�QRW�care, whether the regime falls or not. They do not help their brothers and sisters in other areas. They kidnap for money. The Mujahedeen are not Syria. We do QRW�NQRZ�WKHLU�LQWHQWLRQV�RU�ZKR�LV�ÀQDQF-ing them. They have no vision to help the Syrian people. They just want a place of their own and to scare everyone. They only JLYH�JURXQGV�IRU�$VVDG·V�UKHWRULF��,I�KH�FR-operates with the West and protects minor-LWLHV�IURP�´VHFWDULDQLVPµ��KH�ORRNV�JRRG�LQ�

the eyes of the world. But he is not protecting the minorities! He is endangering them: he is arming them and forces them to take sides. His hands DUH� IXOO� RI� EORRG�� +H� KDV� NLOOHG� ��·��people. He is responsible for four million UHIXJHHV�DQG�KH�KDV�GHVWUR\HG��SHU�FHQW�of Syrian territory. Half a million people are disabled, their arms missing, their feet, WKHLU�H\HV��7KHUH�DUH��·��SULVRQHUV�LQ�Syria. We do not know whether they are dead or alive. One of my own students, a civil activist, who was among those who SOHGJHG�QRQ�YLROHQFH��VD\LQJ�´.LOO�XV�DQG�ZH�ZRQ·W�NLOO�\RXµ��ZDV�WDNHQ�ÀYH�PRQWKV�DJR��,�GR�QRW�NQRZ�ZKHUH�VKH�LV�µ


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What then can be done?��́ ,W·V�KDUG��EHFDXVH�WKH�:HVW�VLPSO\�ORRNV�away. They look away from the starvation, the famine, the destruction of our villages. The West looks away when the missiles, the bombs, the airplanes, the barrels of fuel that destroy our homes. The nephew of a good friend of mine was standing in line at the bakery for bread, when they bombed the bakery. They bomb bakeries and schools. They ERPEHG�D�VFKRRO�LQ�$U�5DTTD��EXW�WKH\�GR�QRW�ERPE�WKH�$O�4DHGD�ÀJKWHUV�� 7KH� 8QLWHG� 1DWLRQV� FDQQRW� JHW� DLG�through to the people. There are delays and there are more dead, there is more blood, there is more starvation. The people are dying of hunger and disease. A student of PLQH�WROG�PH�RQO\�\HVWHUGD\��that people in Mouadamiah, a suburb of Damascus, were eating the leaves of the WUHHV� IRU� ZDQW� RI� IRRG�� /DVW� ZHHN�� WZR�children died of starvation there. This is how you open the door to private Saudi DQG�4DWDUL�GRQRUV��7KH�ÀQH�SULQW�WKH\�DW-WDFK�WR�WKHLU�DLG�LV� WKLV��¶VWDUW�EHLQJ�PRUH�OLNH�XV·� Their only dream is to go back home. They are humiliated. All they want is to go EDFN� WR� WKHLU� ODQG�� WR� SODQW� WKHLU� ÁRZHUV��to do so in a place of justice and freedom. This is what the Syrians want: They want the rule of law, they want liberty, they want equality and they want there to be an end to oppression.

In February, I stayed with a Family called Hashoum. We were sitting together, I slept in their house. Now, they are in a refugee camp. Three armed squads raided their vil-lage. They cannot return to their home, if they want to live, if they want their chil-dren to live. Because the West is sending a message to Assad: Do whatever you want, EXW�GR�QRW�XVH�FKHPLFDO�ZHDSRQV�WR�GR�LW�µ

6R�SURKLELWLQJ�FKHPLFDO�ZHDSRQV� LV� LQ�VXIÀFLHQW�WKHQ"��´$EVROXWHO\��%\�QRW�VLGLQJ�ZLWK�WKH�6\U-ian people, the world is sending every dictator in the world the message that it is ok, that if people dare to rise against you, asking for their freedom, for change and for a democratic society, it is ok for you to kill your own people, to destroy or burn \RXU� FRXQWU\�� DV� ORQJ� DV� \RX� GRQ·W� XVH�chemicals! This is the message the world is sending to Assad and to all dictators of the world. Do not lecture us about human rights, about freedom. We learn about the French and the American revolutions in school.

You fail to lead by example. You are letting the Syrian people down. They are getting killed every day! But there is hope. There is hope for con-ÁLFW� UHVROXWLRQ�DQG� WKHUH� LV�KRSH�IRU�DQWL�VHFWDULDQLVP�� &RQÁLFW� UHVROXWLRQ� LV� DERXW�listening to others and understanding them. And that is what people of Syria have done for years. It is about knowing the other and not to judge. It is about creating ground rules for living together. People from both sides need to build their future together. Teaching is just as important. Over the course of the past two years, I have taught in refugee camps and I have seen people there build a beautiful community. They teach, all learn and all accept each other. Young women are teaching people in the camps. My friends and sisters, Khadijah, Walaa, and Fatimah, the great women of Syria, they teach in the tents of the refugee camps near the Syrian border. They do not want the children to grow up without learn-ing. This is how civil society is built. We were not allowed to build a civil society before this revolution. People are getting to know each other.��7KRVH�ZKR�ZDQW�WKLV�FRQÁLFW�DUH�WKH�RQHV�ZKR� SURÀW� IURP� LW� EHFDXVH� WKH\� VHFXUH�privileges and earn money from arms sales. %XW�WKH�VPDOO�SHRSOH�KDYH�KDG�HQRXJK�µ

How will it end?��´7KH�YLROHQFH�ZLOO�HQG�ZKHQ�ZH�VLW�WR-gether at the negotiation table. There are people now within the regime, who op-pose what Assad is doing and who oppose what the extremists are doing. That already gives us a common ground. We all want a civil society. We want to live together, ma-jorities and minorities. We need the good people from the regime to be part of the so-lution, to plan the future of Syria together. We need both sides.

Take Abdul Aziz al Khayer, for exam-ple. He would be, he is, a great leader. But like so many others, he has been impris-oned by the regime. I was speaking to a high-ranking mem-ber of the regime just the other day on WhatsApp. I asked him, why he was still on the side of the regime and he told me WKLV��´,I�,�FURVV�\RXU�EULGJH��WKH\�ZLOO�EXUQ�my village. And even if I do, I am not sure ZKHWKHU�\RX�ZLOO�DFFHSW�PHµ� We need to protect these people. May-be they can stay on the other side to wait for the right moment to partake in the res-olution. But the resolution needs to come from both sides. This revolution changed my life com-pletely. Before the revolution, I was sit-ting in an ivory tower, contemplating and debating justice and the rule of law. The revolution led me to make the acquain-tance of the villagers of Northern Syria. 8P� .KDOHG�� 1DLPD� DQG� /DPLD�� ,� NQRZ�them now as my sisters. I have come to know the Syrian revolution as a good, a beautiful, and a big cause. There is no way back to the ivory tower from here. Democracy is from the people to the people. It cannot be built from the ivory tower. It needs grassroots. It needs the IHHOLQJ�RI�WKH�SHRSOH��/HDGHUVKLS�LV�DERXW�taking care of the small people while thinking big ideas. Give them your hand and your heart. Walk with them. Espe-FLDOO\� WKH�ZRPHQ�ZKR�FDQ·W� VHH�D� IXWXUH�in Syria without their contribution. It seems that it is a long way to freedom in Syria, but I can see the light coming after the dark tunnel, walking with the people, KDQG�LQ�KDQG�µ

Hind Kabawat is an attorney and In-ternational Counsel at Janssen and As-sociates in Toronto. She studied at Da-mascus University, the Arab University in Beirut, the University of Toronto and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. She is also a Senior Re-search Associate at the Center for World 5HOLJLRQV��'LSORPDF\�DQG�&RQÁLFW�5HVR-lution (CDRC) at George Mason Univer-sity and a founding member of the Syrian Centre for Dialogue. Further, she serves the Advisory Board of the World Bank on Middle Eastern Issues and as a member of the Global Agenda Council for War In-tervention at the World Economic Forum. In 2007, she was awarded the Peacemak-ers in Action Award from the Tannenbaum Centre for Interreligious Understanding and in 2009, she received the CDRC Pub-lic Diplomacy Award.


Their only dream is to go back home...This is what the

Syrians want

“”

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For over two and a half years, the Syr-LDQ� FRQÁLFW� KDV� VHUYHG� DV� WKH� EORRG\� IXO-crum to events in the Middle East. This FRQÁLFW�EHJDQ�DV�DV�D�VWUXJJOH�EHWZHHQ�DQ�autocratic government and democratically-minded protesters, but has since devolved into a gruesome civil war in which Presi-dent Bashar al-Assad and his ruling Ala-wite sect battle Sunni militias to the death. 7KLV�FRQÁLFW�KDV�QRW�RQO\�EHHQ� IXHOHG�E\�LQWHUQHFLQH� ,VODPLF� IHUYRU� ²� ,UDT�� 6\ULD·V�neighbor, has quietly but consistently sup-SRUWHG�$VVDG·V�HIIRUWV�WR�FUXVK�WKH�RSSRVL-tion and regain political and military pri-macy. Though Iraq is formally neutral in WKH�FRQÁLFW��3UHVLGHQW�1RXUL�DO�0DOLNL�VHHV�WKH�VXUYLYDO�RI�$VVDG·V�UHJLPH�DV�D�IXQGD-mental strategic interest. � � � �7KH�6\ULDQ�FRQÁLFW�KDG�KXPEOH�EHJLQ-QLQJV��RQ�0DUFK��D�JDJJOH�RI�6\U-LDQV�IUXVWUDWHG�ZLWK�WKHLU�FRXQWU\·V�JRYHUQ-ment marched the streets of Damascus in SURWHVW� RI� %DVKDU� DO�$VVDG·V� GLFWDWRULDO�regime. The sociopolitical turmoil in sur-rounding Middle Eastern countries – the Arab Spring – had bolstered hopes that Syrians, too, could effect peaceful political reform. � � � �/LNH� LQ�PRVW�DXWRFUDWLF�UHJLPHV�� WKHVH�dissenters were met with an overwhelming military response by the government, re-moving the possibility for peaceful change. That heavy-handed response sparked outrage across the country, catalyzing a UHYROXWLRQDU\� PRYHPHQW� D� OD� (J\SW�� 8Q-like other episodes in the Arab Spring, the Syrian military remained staunchly loyal to Assad and unleashed – in the words of 8QLWHG�1DWLRQV�6HFUHWDU\�*HQHUDO�%DQ�.L�0RRQ�²�D�FDPSDLJQ�RI�´EUXWDO�UHSUHVVLRQ�µ� One year after the initial protests, the GHDWK� WROO� KDG� UHDFKHG� �� WKH� PDMRU-LW\�EHLQJ�UHEHO�FDVXDOWLHV��%\�0DUFK��WKH�ÀJXUH�KDG�LQFUHDVHG�PRUH�WKDQ�WHQIROG��with current estimates placing the number RI�FDVXDOWLHV�DW��WKRXVDQG�²�UHEHOV��government soldiers, and civilians alike. The extent of the carnage is due to the fact that what began as a protest over un-representative and intolerance government has evolved into an implacable civil war, the main stage for a centuries-old Sunni-6KLLWH� ,VODPLF� FRQÁLFW�� 6\ULD� LV� D� 6XQQL�PDMRULW\�FRXQWU\�²�DERXW��RI�LWV�0XV-lims subscribe to SunniIslam, while Assad and most of the Syrian government appara-tus are Alawites, a small offshoot of Shiite ,VODP�ZKLFK�FRQVLVW�RI�RQO\��SHUFHQW�RI�

WKH�6\ULDQ�SRSXODWLRQ��7KH�6\ULDQ�FRQÁLFW�has proceeded as such largely because of anger over the underrepresentation of and discrimination against Sunnis by the Alawite minority; essentially, the Syrian FRQÁLFW�KDV�EHFRPH�D�ÀHUFH�6KLLWH�6XQQL�proxy war. Assad and his government are support-ed by pro-Shiite groups from Shiite ma-jority Iran and Hezbollah, a Shiite terrorist RUJDQL]DWLRQ�EDVHG� LQ�/HEDQRQ��7KH� UHE-els are supported by pro-Sunni regimes, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qa-tar. Prominent global leaders have called IRU� WKH�$VVDG·V�UHPRYDO�DQG�YRLFHG�WKHLU�support for the Syrian National Coali-WLRQ��DQG�LW·V�PLOLWDU\�ZLQJ��WKH�)UHH�6\U-LDQ�$UP\�� D� VHHPLQJO\�PRGHUDWH� 6XQQL�UHEHO�JURXS��,Q�'HFHPEHU��3UHVLGHQW�Barack Obama recognized the National &RDOLWLRQ�DV�´WKH�OHJLWLPDWH�UHSUHVHQWDWLYH�of the Syrian people in opposition to the $VVDGUHJLPH��2VWHQVLEO\�� WKH�)6$·V�RQO\�objective is to unseat Assad – its ranks are composed of Shiites, Alawites, and Sunnis, many of which are Syrian mili-tary defectors. Sunnis, however, form a GHÀQLWLYH� PDMRULW\�� DQG� WKRXJK� WKH� )6$�claims to be nonpartisan it has viciously targeted Shiite and Alawite government VROGLHUV��,Q�-XO\��WKH�)6$�FDSWXUHG�JRYHUQPHQW�WURRSV�RQ�WKH�ZD\�WR�/DWDNLD��an Alawite-majority town, and summarily H[HFXWHG�WKH�ÀYH�$ODZLWHV�DPRQJ�WKHP��$�member of the FSA who had takenpart in WKH�NLGQDSSLQJ� WHUVHO\�VWDWHG� WKDW�´6XQQL�captives were kept. Alawites were execut-HG�µ� ,Q� IDFW�� VRPH� RI� WKHVH�PRUH� UDGLFDO�divisions of the FSA have moved on to the al-Nusra front, a branch of al-Qaeda which seeks to establish a Syrian state un-GHU�VWULFW�VKDULD�ODZ�DQG�ZKRVH�LQÁXHQFH�is now extending into Iraq.

Shiite-majority Iraq occupies a special SODFH�LQ�WKH�FRQWH[W�RI�WKH�6\ULDQ�FRQÁLFW��,W� VXIIHUHG� XQGHU� 6DGGDP� +XVVHLQ·V� RS-SUHVVLYH�PLQRULW\�6XQQL�%D·DWK�SDUW\�JRY-ernment, and many Iraqis sought refuge LQ�6\ULD��7KH��8�6�� LQYDVLRQ� WRSSOHG�6DGGDP·V� UHJLPH�� DQG� DIWHU� VHYHQ� \HDUV�of occupation, Iraq held a democratic SDUOLDPHQWDU\�HOHFWLRQ� LQ�0DUFK�RI��Though the results were only belatedly UDWLÀHG�� WKH\�ZHUH�QRQHWKHOHVV�YLHZHG�DV�legitimate, and ushered in Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Maliki wasted no time in cracking down on revanchist Sunni extremist groups such as theIslamic 6WDWH�RI�,UDT��,6,��DQG�URXWLQHO\�DUUHVWLQJ�and executing suspected terrorists – al-most exclusively Sunni Iraqis. In response, Sunni groups that had previously attacked 8�6��WURRSV�WXUQHG�WKHLU�YLROHQW�DWWHQWLRQV�to Shiite groups, setting off car bombs in crowded civilian centers or Shiite-major-ity towns in the north. The frequency and degree of the violence is increasing expo-nentially as the social and political fabric of the country unravels, bringing Iraq ever FORVHU�WR�IXOO�ÁHGJHG�VHFWDULDQ�FLYLO�ZDU�� 7KH�6\ULDQ�FRQÁLFW�LV�� LQFUHDVLQJO\��D�FDXWLRQDU\� WDOH� IRU�$O�0DOLNL�� FRQÀUPLQJ�his worst fears of Sunni intentions. Al-0DOLNL� VHHV� $VVDG·V� 6KLLWH� JRYHUQPHQW�imperiled by an unrelenting Sunni insur-gency, one that is providing material and spiritual sustenance to those Iraqi Sunnis keen to restore their former privileged sta-tus. For Al-Maliki, Assad remains a pro-Shiite bulwark preventing an all-out Sunni assault on his government. In Iraqi Shiite eyes, therefore, the survival of the Assad regime is inextricably linked to the sur-vival of Shiite rule in Iraq. Any Sunni suc-cess in deposing Assad would undermine $O�0DOLNL·V�OHJLWLPDF\�DQG�FRQWURO��

Why Iraq Wants Assad to Prevail in SyriaTamar Ziff

A poster of Assad on the Aleppo to Damascus Highway

Image courtesy of James Gordon © 2008

Syria .


Therefore, Al-Maliki has taken certain VWHSV�WR�HQVXUH�WKH�PDLQWHQDQFH�RI�$VVDG·V�rule. Iranian airplanes carrying weaponry to Syria are allowed over Iraqi airspace – Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari claims that Iraq simply does not have the means to stop the transfers, and he insisted that most of the planes were merely carrying food or other forms of non-military aid. As a sop to demands by the international communi-W\�WKDW�,UDT�GR�PRUH�WR�UHVWULFW�WKHVH�ÁLJKWV��the Iraqi regime has occasionally request-HG� WKHVH�ÁLJKWV� WR� ODQG� DQG� EH� LQVSHFWHG��though it is likely that the Iraqi government tips off Teheran in advance to ensure that those planes contain only non-lethal cargo. It is well known that Iraqi Shiite militias KDYH�FURVVHG�WKH�ERUGHU�WR�ÀJKW�DORQJVLGH�$VVDG·V�IRUFHV��DQG�ZKLOH�DO�0DOLNL·V�SUR-fessed stance is that sending militias is not SDUW�RI�¶JRYHUQPHQW�SROLF\·�LW�LV�FOHDU�WKDW�the Iraqi government tacitly supports this ÁRZ�RI�ÀJKWHUV�WR�´GHIHQG�WKH�6KLLWH�KRO\�VLWHVµ�LQ�6\ULD�� The Iraqi government is therefore not happy with the status quo, as the seemingly LQWHUPLQDEOH�6\ULDQ�FRQÁLFW�KDV�JUHDWO\�GH-stabilized the country, both by energizing WKH� ,6,� DQG� RWKHU� UDGLFDO� 6XQQL� DIÀOLDWHV�DQG�EULQJLQJ�DQ�LQÁX[�RI�WKRXVDQGV�RI�6\U-ian refugees into Iraq. However, the Iraqi government sees the status quo as less un-favorable to Iraq than a Sunni-led regime in Damascus. Iraq therefore prefers the current stale-mate to any clear outcome antagonistic to Shiite religious, and Iraqi geopolitical, LQWHUHVWV�� 8QIRUWXQDWHO\� IRU� $O� 0DOLNL��the most likely outcomes from the Syrian FRQÁLFW� GR� QRW� IDYRU� ,UDTL� LQWHUHVWV�� )RU�Iraq, the optimal outcome from the Syrian FRQÁLFW�ZRXOG�EH�D�ZHDN��6KLLWH�FRQWUROOHG�6\ULD�� IUHH� IURP� $VVDG·V� UDGLFDO� WHQGHQ-cies and regional meddling. This seems LQFUHDVLQJO\�XQOLNHO\��7KHULVH�RI�WKH�,6,/��the inveterate al-Nusra front, and other al-4DHGD�DIÀOLDWHV�LQ�6\ULD�SUHVDJHV�WKH�SRV-sible resurgence of a Sunni caliphate there. This would not only herald the massacre or exile of non-Sunni minorities, but would DOVR�H[DFHUEDWH�,UDT·V�UHIXJHH�SUREOHP�DQG�establish an implacable fundamentalist foe RQ�,UDT·V�ZHVWHUQ�ERUGHU��6XQQL�UHVLVWDQFH�in Iraq would have Syria as an ally and, newly strengthened, could tip Iraq intofull-scale civil war. Another possibility would be a splin-WHULQJ�RI� UDGLFDO�JURXSV� VXFK�DV� ,6,/�DQG�al-Nusra in Syria that would allow the Western-backed National Coalition to gain legitimacy and establish themselves. This would nonetheless be a boon to opposition Sunni groups in Iraq, and continue to feed

WKH�YLFLRXV�VHFWDULDQ�FRQÁLFW�WKHUH�� A third possible resolution of the Syr-ian civil war could be the continuation of the Assad regime. This would keep the Syrian government in Alawite hands and allow it to continue its campaign against the ISI and other Iraqi Sunni opposition groups. While thisis far from an optimal outcome in Iraqi eyes, it beats having Syr-ia fall into the Sunni orbitand consolidat-LQJ� WKH� IHDUHG� ´6XQQL� FUHVFHQWµ� RSSRVHG�to Shiite rule in Iraq. The Syrian civil war has replaced the RQJRLQJ� ,UDTL� VHFWDULDQ� FRQÁLFW� LQ� WKH�KHDGOLQHV�DQGLQ�WKH�EULHÀQJ�SDSHUV�RI�SRO-icymakers. However, we must not forget that the fates of Syria and Iraq are inex-tricably linked and are part of the larger 6XQQL�6KLLWH� FRQÁLFW� HQJXOÀQJ� WKH�$UDE�world. While the Syrian crisis has seen over a hundred thousand deaths and mil-OLRQV� GLVSODFHG�� LQ� 2FWREHU� �� DORQH��DOPRVW��,UDTLV�ZHUH�NLOOHG��ODUJHO\�FD-sualties of terrorist attacks. An unresolved 6\ULDQ� FRQÁLFW� IHHGV� WKH� NLOOLQJV� DQG�bombings in Iraq, but for Iraq better an XQUHVROYHG�FRQÁLFW�WKDQ�RQH�HQGLQJ�ZLWK�Syria in the hands of yet more Sunni foes. Though Assad may have the resources to overpower the rebel opposition, it is unlikely that the international community will allow him to stay in power for long – multiple countries are providing the FSA ZLWK�PLOLWDU\�DLG��DQG�D�81�FRQIHUHQFH�LQ�Geneva is set to convene in late Novem-ber to work out an answer to the Syrian question. Any possible course of action will assuredly exclude the continuation of the Assad regime. Hence Iraq has no choice but to aid in the perpetuation of the 6\ULDQ� FRQÁLFW�� KHOSLQJ� WKH� 6\ULDQ� JRY-ernment keep its tenuous hold on the na-tion. To that end, Iraq can be counted on HQVXULQJ�WKDW�WKH�6\ULDQ�FRQÁLFW�FRQWLQXHV�to be the preeminent battleground in the $UDE�ZRUOG·V�RQJRLQJ�EORRGOHWWLQJ�

In modern political discourse, it has EHFRPH�D�UDULW\�WR�VHH�WKH�ZRUG�´.XUGLVKµ�QRW� IROORZHG� E\� WKH� ZRUG� ´TXHVWLRQµ� RU�´SUREOHP�µ�9LHZHG�DV�RQH�RI�WKH�0LGGOH�(DVW·V� ELJJHVW� QXLVDQFHV� GXH� WR� VHYHUDO�different instances of separatism in each of the four countries that its claimed bor-ders span, Kurdistan has experienced un-relenting repression. Yet as the civil war in Syria becomes increasingly sectarian and

Out of Chaos: A New RepublicBraden Harris

regional powers escalate their involve-ment, the Kurds see unprecedented pros-SHFWV�IRU�DFKLHYLQJ�VWDWHKRRG��.XUGLVWDQ·V�ÀJKW�IRU�DXWRQRP\�FRXOG�EH�WKH�QH[W�VWHS�in this recent saga of Middle Eastern vola-tility and realignment. The aftermath of the First World War resulted in culturally ignorant divisions of land that would ultimately partitioned the ethnically homogenous Kurdistan be-tween the newly created Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Though each of these states would eventually manage to break free of their colonial rulers, the Kurds remained divided – often being denied the rights to citizenship, land ownership, and the abil-LW\�WR�VSHDN�WKHLU�ODQJXDJH�LQ�RIÀFLDO�VHW-tings like schools and courthouses. How-ever, despite a shared history, culture, and language family, the Kurds, who currently QXPEHU� RYHU� �� PLOOLRQ�� KDYH� GLYHUJLQJ�experiences of – and reactions to – the states in which they reside. Trends in Kurdish separatism are hence best under-stood in terms of their host countries.

The Turkish Problem

Turkey possesses the largest Kurdish population of the four dividing lands, and has struggled heavily with Kurdish na-tionalism for the last three decades. The .XUGLVK�:RUNHUV� 3DUW\� �3..�� RI�7XUNH\�has become perhaps the best known of all Kurdish groups due to its extensive gue-ULOOD� FDPSDLJQV� LQ� WKH� ��·V� DQG� ��·V�� ,WV�frequent use of terrorist methods would FUHDWH�YLOLÀFDWLRQ�RI�WKH�.XUGV�WKURXJKRXW�the country and result in major military crackdowns and government repression. The government hoped that its successful FDSWXUH� RI� WKH� 3..·V� FKDULVPDWLF� ÀJXUH-KHDG�$EGXOODK�gFDODQ�LQ��ZRXOG�GH-capitate the group. During his trial, however, Öcalan seri-ously moderated his position, urging his followers to abandon violence and in-crease civic engagement through political participation. This resulted in a massive increase in international sympathy for the cause of the PKK and its newly established political wing, the Peace and Democracy Party, and established Öcalan as a Man-GHOD�OLNH�ÀJXUH�DPRQJVW�KLV�7XUNLVK�FRQ-stituency. It was only after meeting with Öcalan and agreeing to make subsequent social reforms for the Kurdish people that a recent resurgence of PKK violence and a major hunger strike staged by the BDP were quelled. To date, the Turkish Kurds have man-aged to achieve some recent social and po-litical reforms, but their wish for greater


autonomy within Turkey, not to mention independence, remains a distant target.

7KH�6\ULDQ�4XHVWLRQ

The Syrian Civil war has transformed LQWR�D�VHFWDULDQ�SUR[\��SLWWLQJ�6KL·D�DJDLQVW�Sunni and dragging nations in from around the region. Yet even though most Kurds are Sunni Muslims, the policies of Syrian Kurdish groups could best be described as opportunistic, self-serving, and secular. A FORVH�DIÀOLDWH�RI�WKH�HTXDOO\�VHFXODU�3..��WKH�'HPRFUDWLF�8QLRQ�3DUW\��3<'��DORQJ�with other Kurdish parties composing the .XUGLVK�1DWLRQDO�&RXQFLO��.1&��KDYH�HQ-joyed high levels of autonomy in the Kurd-dominated northwestern horn of Syria VLQFH�HDUO\�LQ�WKH�FRQÁLFW��$OWKRXJK�UHVLV-tance against the regime was visible at the outset, violence against the Syrian Army subsided after Assad decided to withdraw troops and focus elsewhere. When the PYD felt regime encroachment on their territory, they aided the rebels. Conversely, when the Syrian Kurds felt the rebels posed a threat to their regional control, they aided the re-JLPH·V�GHIHQVH�IURP�WKH�)UHH�6\ULDQ�$UP\�and radical groups alike. Distrust of the rebels went further than simple military action. The KNC and PYD have criticized the Syrian National Coun-cil for being overly Islamist and for their refusal to call for increased Kurdish rights and autonomy during deliberations. This is QR�VXUSULVH�FRQVLGHULQJ�WKH�FRXQFLO·V�FORVH�UHODWLRQV�ZLWK�$QNDUD��DQG�$QNDUD·V� IHDUV�of an empowered neighboring Kurdish population with such close ties to the PKK. The parties have opted to remain largely neutral, making and breaking alliances as it suits their needs. The Kurds have thus had a decidedly inward focus, preparing for the struggle that will undoubtedly come with the restructuring of the Syrian state.

An Iraqi Answer?

Yet of all Kurdish movements, the ,UDTL�.XUGV�KDYH�PDGH�WKH�PRVW�VLJQLÀFDQW�gains. Despite enjoying some level of de facto autonomy in northern Iraq after the Gulf War, the leading Kurdish Democratic 3DUW\� �.'3�� DQG� WKH� 3DWULRWLF� 8QLRQ� RI�.XUGLVWDQ��38.��ZHUH�KHDYLO\�GLYLGHG�RQ�how to manage the region, bringing about a civil war of their own. With the invasion of ,UDT�ORRPLQJ��WKH�.'3�DQG�38.�ZHUH�DEOH�to put aside their differences for the better of the Kurdish people as a whole, form-ing a single Kurdish party that would run LQ� WKH� �� ,UDTL� JHQHUDO� HOHFWLRQV�� (YHQ�more impressive than this show of unity

was the success it managed to swing, win-ning over a quarter of the total vote, and IDOOLQJ� RQO\� EHKLQG� WKH� 6KL·D� OHG�8QLWHG�,UDTL�$OOLDQFH��$V�D�UHVXOW��WKH�38.·V�7D-labani became president of Iraq and the newly formed constitution created an au-tonomous Kurdish region, run by its own .XUGLVK� 5HJLRQDO� *RYHUQPHQW�� ZLWKLQ� D�highly decentralized Iraqi federal system.� � � � � � 8QIRUWXQDWHO\� IRU� WKH�.5*�� 3ULPH�Minister Maliki has become increasingly DXWRFUDWLF�DQG�UHODWLRQV�EHWZHHQ�WKH�.5*�DQG�%DJKGDG�DUH�VRXULQJ��%DJKGDG·V�FRQ-trol over the one major pipeline running IURP�.LUNXN�WR�&H\KDQ��7XUNH\��KDV�JLY-HQ�LW�DQ�HIIHFWLYH�FRQWURO�RYHU�WKH�.5*·V�oil export abilities. Tensions have been RQ�WKH�ULVH�VLQFH�D�IDLOHG�YRWH�RI�QR�FRQÀ-GHQFH�VWDJHG�E\�WKH�.5*�LQ��RQ�WRS�of its continued attempts to pursue oil con-

WUDFWV� VHSDUDWH� IURP� %DJKGDG·V� FRQWURO��Maliki now plans to build a military base in the contested Kirkuk region, and small clashes between the Iraqi Security Forces DQG� WKH� .5*·V� 3HVKPHUJD� KDYH� EURNHQ�out. But even though Iraqi Kurdistan has established the necessary components for autonomy and even independence, the fu-ture relies heavily on its ability to export FUXGH� RLO�� 0DOLNL·V� YLFH�JULS� RQ� WKH� SUL-PDU\�SLSHOLQH�DQG�WKH�.5*·V�ODFN�RI�DQ\�SRUWV�KDYH�SXVKHG�WKH�.5*�WR�EHJLQ�ORRN-ing outwards. Ironically, this has meant the development of a budding relationship with Ankara. Although the idea of neighboring Kurd-ish autonomy was previously an anathe-ma to the Turks, the shifting geopolitical landscape of the region has stirred recon-VLGHUDWLRQV�RI�WKHLU�VWUDWHJ\��$QNDUD·V�SHU-FHSWLRQ� RI� 0DOLNL·V� ,UDT� DV� LQFUHDVLQJO\�complicit to Iran, and Baghdad and Teh-

UDQ·V� GLVSOHDVXUH� RYHU� 7XUNH\·V� VXSSRUW�for the Syrian rebels has caused relations between the two to sour. Continued deteri-oration of relationships with Iraq and Iran would mean potential blows to oil impor-tation, so Ankara has taken steps to build relations with the oil-rich Iraqi Kurds in RUGHU�WR�ÀOO�WKLV�YRLG��,Q�VSLWH�RI�0DOLNL·V�FRQGHPQDWLRQV��WKH�ÀQDOL]DWLRQ�RI�DQ�H[-FOXVLYH� 7XUNLVK�.5*� SLSHOLQH� GHDO� RQ�1RYHPEHU��WK�VROLGLÀHG�WKH�,UDTL�.XUGLVK�opening. While the largely secular-minded Kurds have historically remained neutral LQ� ,VODPLF� VHFWDULDQ�FRQÁLFWV��QHZ� IRXQG�economic relationships have pushed the Kurds to align themselves more with the growing Sunni axis, a move which could further upset the power balance in the re-gion.

Alignment Shifts and Sea Changes

8S�XQWLO� WKH�WXUQ�RI� WKH�FHQWXU\��.XUGLVK�aspirations had remained seemingly un-tenable. The Arab Spring and war in Syr-ia, however, have left the Middle Eastern SRZHU� EDODQFH� LQ� ÁX[�� 6\ULDQ�.XUGLVWDQ�has distanced itself from the rebel move-ments and established itself as a largely neutral and autonomous region. The in-HYLWDEOH� HQG�RI� WKH� FRQÁLFW�� WKRXJK��ZLOO�undoubtedly require a massive restructur-ing of the political system in the state, and the Kurds absence from SNC negotiations could mean trouble when the time comes for the implementation of a new plan. Furthermore, a new Syria lacking its larg-est ethnic minority would likely be less inclined to form a more pluralistic gov-ernment. The fall of the regime in Syria ZRXOG�QRW�PHDQ�DQ�HQG�WR�WKH�FRQÁLFW�DV�a whole.

The potential area for a Great Kurdistan

Syria .

Syria .


Iraqi Kurdistan, though similarly poised RQ� WKH�YHUJH�RI�FRQÁLFW��KDV�GRQH�ZHOO� WR�wedge itself into the geopolitical structure RI�WKH�0LGGOH�(DVW��7XUNH\·V�6XQQL�DOLJQ-ment will mean the loss of favor with states on which it is currently energy-dependent. As sectarian tension grows around the re-gion, Turkey will be forced to turn even more towards the already autonomous .5*��7KLV�ZLOO�RQO\�H[DFHUEDWH� WHQVLRQV��forcing the Maliki government to increase economic sanctions and militarization DJDLQVW�WKH�.5*��7KLV�LQ�WXUQ�ZLOO�SXVK�WKH�Kurds to seek further regional economic UHODWLRQVKLSV�� DQG� WKH� DGYHQW� RI� FRQÁLFW�will likely mean the transformation of eco-nomic support into military support, with alliances being formed along the current sectarian fault lines. The big question in this quarrel is how the West will align itself. Although cur-rently tied up in their support for Maliki in the aftermath of its war, the reliability of the Iraqi regime continues to slip. A stra-tegic realignment towards the secular, pro-Western Kurds who have demonstrated a predisposition towards democratic values could mean the creation of a state similar to Israel in its political orientation, not to mention the salience of boosting renown by helping a historically disenfranchised people achieve independence. Further-more, the creation of a Kurdish state could be massively empowering to the Iranian Kurdish nationalists, stirring unrest in one RI� WKH�:HVW·V�PRVW� LQIDPRXV� DGYHUVDULHV��Although not an easy step to take, a major change in Western policy towards the re-gion could very well be the tipping point LQ� IDYRU� RI� ÀQDOO\� IUHHLQJ� WKH� ODQGORFNHG�nationalists.

The sequel to the critically acclaimed �DQG� KLJKO\� FRQWURYHUVLDO�� ´&ROG� :DUµ�WKDW� UDQ� IURP�� WR� ��&ROG�:DU��Electric Boogaloo follows one of the main DFWRUV�RI�WKH�SUHYLRXV�&ROG�:DU��5XVVLD��DV�it struggles to come to terms with its loss of empire at theend of the previous instal-PHQW��8QOLNH�LWV�SUHGHFHVVRU��&ROG�:DU��is decidedly limited in scope, taking place PDLQO\�LQ�6\ULD�DQG�LV�D�UHÁHFWLRQ�RI�5XV-VLD·V�GLPLQLVKHG�UROH�DV�DJOREDO�SRZHU�DQG�of the simple budgetary limitations that have come with it. Gone are the days of tens of thousands of Soviet tanks massed in Europe to overrun NATO. Gone are the days of Moscow being mentioned in the same breath as Washington or Beijing.

Cold War II: Electric BoogalooMatthew Valla

Gone are the days of the KGB calling the shots in Moscow... oh wait, never mind. 7KH�UHODWLYH�DEVHQFH�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�from the feature (aside from a brief cameo DIWHU� FKHPLFDO� ZHDSRQV� ZHUH� XVHG�� KDV�also been a noticeable difference. Yet in spite of that, while this new instalment to the franchise may seem like a nostalgic WKURZEDFN� WR� D� E\JRQH� HUD�� &ROG�:DU� ��nonetheless serves as a potent reminder that not all of us have let go of the bad old days. ��)RU�WKH�5XVVLDQ�)HGHUDWLRQ��LQ�D�ZD\�WKH�Cold War has never truly been over. The IDOO� RI� WKH� 6RYLHW� 8QLRQ� DQG� WKH� GHFDGH�of humiliation that followed under Boris <HOWVLQ·V�SUHVLGHQF\�FHPHQWHG�WKH�LGHD�LQ�SHRSOH·V�PLQGV�ERWK�LQ�DQG�RXW�RI�5XVVLD�WKDW� WKH� QHZ�5XVVLDQ� )HGHUDWLRQ�ZDV� QR�longer a superpower by any means. In that sense, the rise of Vladimir Putin was D�UHWXUQ�WR�IRUP��ZLWK�5XVVLD�JUDGXDOO\�UH�HVWDEOLVKLQJ�LWV�LQÁXHQFHRYHU�PDQ\�SRVW�Soviet states. Putin also embodied much

of the Soviet nostalgia that accompanied 5XVVLD·V� ORQJ� GULIW� LQWR� LUUHOHYDQFH�� )RU�PDQ\�5XVVLDQV��WKH�&ROG�:DU��RU�DW�OHDVW�its foreign policy dynamic, was a period WKDW�5XVVLD�FDQ�ORRN�EDFN�RQ�ZLWK�D�FHU-tain degree of pride. It was certainly the KHLJKW� RI� 5XVVLDQ�PLOLWDU\� DQG� VFLHQWLÀF�achievement, as well as being the only pe-ULRG� LQ�5XVVLDQ� KLVWRU\�ZKHUH� WKH\�ZHUH�a trulyglobal power with a network of al-lies and bases that protected their interests abroad. Considering the downgrade to regional power status and the degradation RI�5XVVLD·V�VFLHQFH�DQG�WHFKQRORJ\�VHFWRU��all the while their once-poor counterparts in China have soared effortlessly to the WRS��LW�LV�HDV\�WR�VHH�ZK\�VRPH�5XVVLDQV��especially the former-Soviet bureaucrats that dominate the Foreign Ministry, still look wistfully to the way things used to be. Syria is in many ways just the latest target of this post-Soviet nostalgia. In the \HDUV�IROORZLQJ�3XWLQ·V�ULVH��5XVVLD�IRXQG�


its relations with the West worsening sig-QLÀFDQWO\�� OHDGLQJ�0RVFRZ�WR�UHDFK�RXW�WR�SDVW� DOOLHV�� 6\ULD�ZDV� DQ� HDUO\� EHQHÀFLDU\�RI�WKLV�SROLF\��ZLWK�5XVVLD�IRUJLYLQJ��RI�6\ULD·V�GHEW��LQ�SDUW�WR�HQFRXUDJH�DUPV�SXU-chases. That said, Syria remained a relative IRRWQRWH� LQ�5XVVLD·V� IRUHLJQ�SROLF\�KLVWRU\�since the end of the Cold War; so much so WKDW�XQWLO��%DVKDU�DO�$VVDG�ZDV�PDN-ing a number of well publicised efforts to move closer to the West. In the end, the civil war was what pushed the two old al-OLHV�LQWR�RQH�DQRWKHU·V�DUPV�IRU�D�URPDQWLF�embrace worthy of any epic movie. What was once at best a neglected Cold War-era UHODWLRQVKLS�UHPLQLVFHQW�RI�/LE\D�DQG�&XED�suddenly transformed into the new centre of JUDYLW\�LQ�5XVVLD·V�TXHVWWR�UHDVVHUW�LWV�SODFH�in the international system. Since then, 5XVVLD� KDV� EHHQ� D� NH\� DOO\� RI� WKH� 6\ULDQ�regime, supplying them with the weapons QHFHVVDU\�WR�NHHS�ÀJKWLQJ�WKH�UHEHOV�DV�ZHOO�as the advisory support needed to operate and maintain their more advanced weapons DQG�HTXLSPHQW�� ,W�ZDV�5XVVLD� WKDW�ZHQW� WR�EDW� IRU� 6\ULD� RQ� WKH�81�6HFXULW\�&RXQFLO�DQG�LW�ZDV�5XVVLD�WKDW�XOWLPDWHO\�SUHYDLOHG�when intervention seemed certain back in September. ��$W�WKH�HQG�RI�WKH�GD\��5XVVLD�LV�SOD\LQJ�its game in Syria as if it were a Cold War SUR[\� FRQÁLFW�� PLQXV� WKH� DFWXDO� VWUDWHJLF�LPSHUDWLYH��,W�KDV�LGHQWLÀHG�6\ULD�DV�D�NH\�ally in the Middle East as well as an im-portant strategic location by virtue of their naval base at Tartus. Of course, this strategy remains largely counterintuitive; Assad has successfully alienated every government in the Middle East except Iran, a point that has FDXVHG� VHYHUH� KDUP� WR�5XVVLD·V� UHSXWDWLRQ�ZLWKLQ�WKH�UHJLRQ��)XUWKHUPRUH��WKH�5XVVLDQ�base at Tartus, in spite of the alleged reno-vations, by all accounts remains a decrepit, undermanned and underfunded naval base, whose personnel can be counted in the tens and whose docks remain largely incapable RI�KRXVLQJ�DQ\�PDMRU�5XVVLDQ�VXUIDFH�FRP-batant. � � � � �7KLV� LV� QRW� WR� VD\� WKDW�5XVVLD� KDV� QR�interests in Syria, but its insistence on participating in the civil war has undoubt-edly taken its toll on what concrete goals LW�DFWXDOO\�KDG��7KH�OLRQ·V�VKDUH�RI�5XVVLD·V�interests there lay in its ability to make ex-pensive arms purchases and be a potential GHVWLQDWLRQ� IRU� 5XVVLDQ� LQYHVWPHQW�� ERWK�RI�ZKLFK�ZHUH�ODUJHO\�QXOOLÀHG�E\�WKH�FLYLO�war. Therefore, any strategic arguments put forth by Moscow to justify involvement in Syria are fundamentally unsatisfactory. 8OWLPDWHO\�� 6\ULD·V� SULPDU\� YDOXH� WR� 5XV-sia seems to lie more in the opportunities it

RIIHUV�IRU�5XVVLD�WR�DVVHUW�LWVHOI�DV�D�PD-jor power against the West and engage in Cold War-style nostalgia. After all, Tar-tus may not be a particularly important port, but it is the last overseas naval base WKDW�5XVVLD�KDV�OHIW�DQG�LW�ZDV�RQFH�D�NH\�symbol of Soviet naval power. ��2I�FRXUVH��ZKLOH�5XVVLD�VHHPV�WR�EH�ÀJKWLQJ�D�SUR[\�ZDU�LQ�6\ULD��VWUDQJHO\�LW�seems to be the only one doing so (admit-tedly, there has also been Saudi and Qatari involvementin Syria, both of which have been providing limited arms shipments DQG�VRPH�ÀQDQFLDO�VXSSRUW�WR�WKH�RSSRVL-WLRQ��7KH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�DQG�(XURSH��ZKR�could provide the weapons necessary to turn the tide in Syria, have been con-spicuously absent. Indeed, most Western governments have been downright un-interested in the idea of providing arms to the Syrian rebels. It took almost two \HDUV�IRU�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�WR�VHQG�ERG\�armour and medical supplies to the oppo-VLWLRQ��)XUWKHUPRUH��HYHQ�WKRXJK�WKH�86�administration has sent weapons to Syria, it has restricted itself almost entirely to small arms and light weapons (though no 6$0·V��ZHDSRQV�ZKLFK�ZRXOG�GR�OLWWOH�to affect the ultimate outcome. Given the hesitancy of Western governments to get involved even in a limited sense in Syria, this would suggest that only half of this QHZ�&ROG�:DU�VHHPV�WREH�ZLOOLQJ�WR�ÀJKW�it. ��,Q�D�ZD\��WKLV�VKRXOGQ·W�EH�DOO�WKDW�VXU-prising. As far as the West is concerned, the Cold War has been over for a long time and is a period that most would pre-fer to forget aboutrather than reminisce RYHU��7KH�IHDU� WKDW�5XVVLD�RQFH� LQVSLUHG�in the minds of policymakers has largely disappeared, replaced with a mixture of fear for new threats aswell as bemuse-PHQW�RYHU�5XVVLD·V�DWWHPSWV�WR�UHYLYH�WKH�FRQÁLFW��,QGHHG��5XVVLD·V�SROLF\�LQ�6\ULD�RI�VXSSRUWLQJ�ZKDW�LV�OHIW�RI�$VVDG·V�RQFH�XQLÀHG� UHJLPH� LV� LQ� WKH� ORQJ� WHUP� VXFK�a self-destructive cause that one cannot help but understand Western restraint on this issue. By betting on a deck as bad as $VVDG·V�� 5XVVLD� LV� KXUWLQJ� LWV� ORQJWHUP�YLDELOLW\� WR� UHPDLQ� DQ� LQÁXHQWLDO� IRUFH�in the Middle East; all this at no cost to the West, who frankly were never that SHHYHG� ZLWK� 5XVVLD·V� H[LVWLQJ� SUHVHQFH�in the region to begin with. By insisting RQ�ÀJKWLQJ�D�ZDU�WKDW�KDV�ORVW�PXFK�RI�LWV�VWUDWHJLF�UDWLRQDOH��5XVVLD�PD\�JDLQ�VRPH�visibility, but its fundamental inability to sustain such a commitment will only hurt what is left of its credibility. Thus, while my characterisation of this Cold War in the title is somewhat face-

tious, it nonetheless explains much of what is going on in the Syrian proxy war. This is a classic bad sequel, made on a low budget with a fraction of the scope of the original, featuring only some of the original main FDVW�DQG�QRQH�RI� WKH�SHRSOH�ZKR�SURÀWHG�most from the original instalment. When it was released, it had little relevance to most of the critics, who instead preferred to focus on other, more relevant titles like: Islamic Terrorism or Inter-ethnic Disputes. And in the end, like all bad sequels, this one will gradually end in disaster, with WKH� UHPDLQLQJ� FDVW� KDYLQJ� ZKDW·V� OHIW� RI�their careers blasted by their performance in a bad production and their insistence on holding onto a franchise that should have been put out to pasture years ago. 7KH� IDFW� WKDW�5XVVLD� FDQQRW� NHHS� WKLV� XS�forever may be of little comfort to the Syr-ian people, but it does at least offer some hope that, in the long run, the Cold War GLFKRWRP\�RI�5XVVLD�YHUVXV�WKH�:HVW�PD\�ÀQDOO\�EH�VOLSSLQJ�LQWR�LUUHOHYDQFH��0D\EH�this time it will stay dead.

Does Syria Mean the End of the International Political System as we Know It?-RQDWKDQ�%HUWXOLV�)HUQDQGHV� � � � � �7KH� HQG� RI� WKH�86·V� SUH�HPLQHQFH�in the international political system has long been foretold. Since the collapse RI� WKH� 6RYLHW�8QLRQ� DW� WKH� EHJLQQLQJ� RI�WKH� ��V�� WKH�86� KDV� HQMR\HG� D� SHULRG�of undisputed supremacy in international SROLWLFV��<HW�WKURXJKRXW�WKLV�¶XQLSRODU�PR-PHQW·��PDQ\� GLIIHUHQW� IDFWRUV� KDYH� EHHQ�FLWHG�DV�LQGLFDWRUV�RI�WKH�JUDGXDO�86�GH-cline. These have included the spiralling FRVWV� RI� WKH�ZDU� RQ� WHUURU� DQG� WKH� ��JOREDO�ÀQDQFLDO�FULVLV��+RZHYHU��GRHV�WKH�recent debacle over military intervention LQ�6\ULD�UHSUHVHQW�WKH�¶WUXH·�HQG�RI�86�KH-gemony in the international political sys-tem as we know it?��86�3UHVLGHQW�%DUDFN�2EDPD·V�DWWHPSWV�to build an international consensus on multilateral military intervention in Syria were widely seen as an abject failure. For PDQ\�� 5XVVLDQ� 3UHVLGHQW�9ODGLPLU� 3XWLQ�roundly outmanoeuvred Obama through KLV�PXFK�ODXGHG�¶SROLWLFDO�VROXWLRQ·�ZKLFK�advocated the supervised destruction of Syrianchemical weapons as opposed to PLOLWDU\�LQWHUYHQWLRQ��:KLOVW�)RUEHV·V�UH-cent naming of Putin above Obama as the current most powerful person in the world LV�TXHVWLRQDEOH��LW�LV�UHÁHFWLYH�RI�D�VROLGL-

Syria .


Syria .ÀFDWLRQ�LQ�WKH�SHUFHSWLRQ�RI�D�ZLGHU�GH-FOLQH� LQ� WKH�86·V� UHODWLYH� SUHVHQFH� DQG�LQÁXHQFH�RQ�WKH�ZRUOG�VWDJH��5HJDUGOHVV�of the exact applicability of this assess-ment, it is apparent that in many ways the Syria debacle represents the nadirof 86�JOREDO�OHDGHUVKLS�LQ�UHFHQW�WLPHV��7KH�IDLOXUH�RI�WKH�86�WR�DFKLHYH�LWV�aim of intervention in Syria is extraor-dinary in many ways. There are argu-ably two components to hegemonic OHDGHUVKLS�ÀUVWO\�� WKHPDLQWHQDQFH� RI� D�ZLGH� VSKHUH� RI� LQÁXHQFH� ZLWKLQ� ZKLFK�the hegemon has exclusive power and FRQWURO�� DQG� VHFRQGO\�� WKH� ¶KDUG·� PLOL-tary and economic capabilities that en-able this projection and exclusivity of power. As the most powerful nation on (DUWK�� WKH�86�FHUWDLQO\� IXOÀOV� WKH� ODWWHU�UHTXLUHPHQW��5HJDUGOHVV�RI�LWV�ULVH��&KL-na is yet to fully make the transition to a JUHDW�SRZHU��DQG�WKH�86�IDFHV�QR�RWKHU�immediate competitors for supremacy. However, the Syrian question appears to KDYH� FRQFHUQHG� WKH� ÀUVW� FRPSRQHQW� RI�86�KHJHPRQ\�²� WKH�DELOLW\� WR�PDLQWDLQ�D�VSKHUH�RI�LQÁXHQFH�VXFK�WKDW�QR�RWKHU�state will challenge it.� � � � 3OD\LQJ� WKH� ¶UHOXFWDQW� KHJHPRQ·��2EDPD·V� UHWLFHQFH� WR� DFW� GXULQJ� LQ-ternational discussions on Syria was matched in size only by the lethargy of KLV�HYHQWXDO�UHVSRQVH�� ¶7KLV�EHODWHG�UH-sponse itself was only precipitated due to his being committed politically to in-WHUYHQH� GXH� WR� KLV� LQIDPRXV� ¶UHG� OLQH·��Additionally, despite not having shown any qualms with the exercise of his ex-ecutive powers to wage war in the past ZLWK�/LE\D��KH�EXFN�SDVVHG�WKH�LVVXH�RI�intervention to Congress – furtherweak-HQLQJ�86� OHDGHUVKLS�RQ� WKH� LVVXH� LQWHU-nationally. The direct challenge posed to WKH�86·V�JOREDO�OHDGHUVKLS�E\�5XVVLD��LQ�spite of intense international pressure, is surely indicative of the degree to which WKLV�VSKHUH�RI�LQÁXHQFH�KDV�EHHQ�HURGHG�'UDZLQJ�RQ�ZLGHU�SHUFHSWLRQV�RI� D�86�GHFOLQH�� LQ� D�ZHOO�NQRZQ� ��:HHNO\�Standard article Charles Krauthammer DUJXHV�WKDW�¶'HFOLQH�LV�D�FKRLFH·��.UDXW-hammer believes the timid and deferen-tial approach to foreign policy adopted by the Obama administration to have GLUHFWO\� FRQWULEXWHG� WR� D� GHFOLQH� LQ�86�hegemony in the international political system. And thus, it is the actions (or LQDFWLRQV��RI� WKH�2EDPD�DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ�that have precipitated this decline. ��5HJDUGOHVV�RI�WKH�GHEDWH�DERXW�WKH�exogenous versus endogenous factors in WKH�GHFOLQH�RI�86�KHJHPRQ\��.UDXWKDP-PHU·V� WKLQNLQJ� LV� LQWHUHVWLQJ� ZKHQ� DV-

sessing the implications that this decline will have for the international political V\VWHP�� .UDXWKDPPHU·V� FHQWUDO� SUHP-ise follows constructivist notions on the nature of the international political sys-tem.Simply put, it is due to the actions of states and other actors in the interna-tional political system, which form or construct the international political sys-tem into what it is; it is not simply there. It is the interactions and the form these interactions take which result in the for-mation of the system and therefore the actions of states and of other actors that constitute the system in its entirety. Asa social reality, it is inherently dynamic. Drawing on these notions, it follows that the very nature and character of the international political system itself LV� FRQVWUXFWHG� E\� WKH� KHJHPRQ��/LQNHG�to this, hegemonic stability theory pos-its that the hegemon actively maintains an international political system in its image, embedding certain normative frameworks and structures within it. As the closest actor to an independent guar-antor of security in the international po-litical system, it falls to the hegemon to maintain the stability of the system and the norms governing the ways states be-have. From these standpoints, with the death of a hegemon before its time do we now face a crisis in the maintenance of the international political system? According to hegemonic stabil-ity theory, through this maintenance the hegemon imposes order and stability onto an otherwise chaotic international political system. This represents a pub-lic good from which the system and all VWDWHV�EHQHÀW�DV�D�ZKROH��7KXV��D�ODFN�RI�hegemonic leadership represents a crisis

in global governance as the various inter-national regimes, which provide piecemeal and disconnected instances of rule-gov-erned behaviour in an anarchic system, face possible collapse. This negatively impacts all states as inter-state interactions in the international political system become more opaque, engendering fear and uncertainty. ,QGHHG�� WKH� 86·V� IDLOXUH� WR� IXOÀO� WKH� UROH�of hegemon has already raised ire amongst members of the international community. 6DXGL� $UDELD·V� UHFHQW� VWLQJLQJ� DWWDFN� RQ�WKH�86� DQG� LWV� XQSUHFHGHQWHG� UHMHFWLRQ� RI�DQ�$PHULFDQ�EDFNHG�SODFH�LQ�WKH�81�6HFX-rity Council is telling of perhaps wider in-ternational concernat the perceivedshirking E\� WKH�86� RI� LWV� LQWHUQDWLRQDO� REOLJDWLRQV��:LWKRXW�86�PDLQWHQDQFH��WKH�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�political system faces instability as it under-JRHV�D�SHULRG�RI�DGMXVWPHQW�DQG�¶SRVW�KHJH-PRQLF�UHERXQG�· This crisis in system maintenance also provides a prism for an exploration of the wider implications of a change in systemic polarity, an eventual inevitability with the ULVH� RI� &KLQD� DQG� WKH� %5,&� VWDWHV� PRUH�widely. Francis Fukyama famously argued IRU� ¶7KH� (QG� RI� +LVWRU\·WKDW� WKH� FROODSVH�RI� WKH�6RYLHW�8QLRQ� VLJQDOOHG� WKH�XOWLPDWH�triumph of liberal democracies. The Fukya-man international political system was RYHUVHHQ� E\� WKH� 86� DQG� FKDPSLRQHG� OLE-eral democratic values. This was a period in which sovereignty underwent the great-est transformation, from its Westphalian RULJLQV� WKURXJK� WKH� QRUP� RI� ¶VRYHUHLJQW\�DV� UHVSRQVLELOLW\·�� LQ� ZKLFK� WKH� QRWLRQ� RI�humanitarian intervention saw greater nor-PDOLVDWLRQ� DQG� WKH�81·V�5HVSRQVLELOLW\� WR�3URWHFW� �5�3�� ZDV� IDPRXVO\� FRQFHLYHG��Moreover, it was ultimately the period in which a variety of cosmopolitan principles

Image courtesy of Pete Souza © 2013 Putin reasserts himself in Syria


ZHUH�FRGLÀHG�DW� WKH�KHDUW�RI� WKH� LQWHUQD-tional political system through the notion of liberal interventionism. The eventual arrival of a multipolar system will argu-ably see a dilution of these principles and a possible return to the principle of invio-lable sovereignty, as no state will be will-ing, or able, to enforce these norms in a SRVW�86� KHJHPRQLF� V\VWHP�� ,QGHHG�� WKH�international interactions of China, possi-bly the strongest actor in the future politi-cal system, have a saliently non-interven-tionist character. Its dealings with states in Africa have been noticeably transactional and utilitarian, jarring with the condition-alities central to any Euro-American inter-action with Africa. ��:LWK�WKH�ULVH�RI�&KLQD�DQG�WKH�%5,&V�pointing towards a slow march towards multipolarity, the end of the unipolar mo-ment is an eventual inevitability. Howev-HU�� WKH� UHFHQW�GHEDFOH�RI�86� OHG�PLOLWDU\�intervention in Syria has exposed a wider crisis in the immediate international po-litical system. Without the leadership of WKH� 86� LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\�� WKH� LQWHUQDWLRQDO�political system faces a rudderless period of instability and politicking stemming from this sudden vacuum. In an interna-tional system constructed on precedent, WKH� GHFOLQH� RI�86�KHJHPRQ\�RQ� DFFRXQW�of its rolein the Syrian civil war perhaps represents a preview of an oncoming mul-tipolar world.

Lebanon and Syria: A Tale of two Warring SiblingsTimothy Poirson Whenever it rains in Syria, the saying JRHV�� WKH� /HEDQHVH� KDYH� WR� JHW� RXW� WKHLU�XPEUHOODV�WRR��8QIRUWXQDWHO\�IRU�WKH�/HED-nese, they can expect anything but rain to fall right now. Early into theSyrian Civil War, analysts and academics feared they were picking up on signs of an imminent VSLOORYHU�RI�WKH�ÀUH�RI�ZDU�LQWR�QHLJKERXU-LQJ� 7XUNH\�� ,UDT�� DQG� /HEDQRQ�� <HW� WKH\�concluded that while the impact of such a spillover into Turkey and Iraq would be disastrous, no neighbouring country would EH�DIIHFWHG�E\�WKH�6\ULDQ�FRQÁLFW�DV�PXFK�DV�/HEDQRQ��

Four Decades of Syrian Involvement� � � � � 7KH� KLVWRULFDO� WLHV� EHWZHHQ� /HEDQRQ�and Syria are extremely strong. Both hav-ing gained independence from France at the very end of the First World War, the two countries have always had tumultu-RXV� ELODWHUDO� UHODWLRQV�� )RU� RYHU� �� \HDUV��

6\ULD�NHSW�D�VWHDG\�KDQG�LQ�/HEDQHVH�LQ-WHUQDO�DIIDLUV��WDNLQJ�RQ�WKH�UROH�RI�D�¶ELJ�EURWKHU·�� 6XUH� HQRXJK�� OLNH� WKH� PDMRU-ity of big brothers, Syria has been there, NHHSLQJ�DQ�H\H�RXW�RQ�/HEDQRQ��ÀQGLQJ�any reason to intervene in the country. Ever since Hafez al-Assad seized control RI� 6\ULD� LQ� �� VHFXULQJ� WKH� DO�$VVDG�FODQ·V�SROLWLFDO�IXWXUH�XQWLO�QRZ��WKH�6\U-ian security forces have been on call UHDG\� WR� LQWHUYHQH� LQ�/HEDQRQ��7KH�ÀUVW�such intervention occurred when the Pal-HVWLQLDQ� /LEHUDWLRQ� 2UJDQLVDWLRQ� �3/2��PLOLWDQWV� UHORFDWHG� WR� /HEDQRQ� IROORZ-ing their expulsion from Jordan during WKH� ¶%ODFN�6HSWHPEHU·� HSLVRGH�RI��,QGHHG��WKH\�ZHLJKHG�VR�KHDYLO\�RQ�/HED-

QRQ·V�GHHSO\�VHFWDULDQ�VRFLHW\�WKDW�LW�OHG�WR�&KULVWLDQ�IDFWLRQV�ÀJKWLQJ�0XVOLP�IDF-tions. Syria was promptly called upon for help, quickly imposing itself as the leader of the peacekeeping force. When Israel LQYDGHG� /HEDQRQ� IRU� WKH� VHFRQG� WLPH�LQ��6\ULD�ZDV�DJDLQ�FDOOHG�XSRQ�WR�ÀJKW��DORQJ�ZLWK�WKHLU�QHZ�DOO\��WKH�6KL·D�Islamic militant group Hezbollah. Ever VLQFH� WKH�� VLJQLQJ� �LQ�6\ULD�� RI� WKH�7ULSDUWLWH�$JUHHPHQW� EHWZHHQ� /HEDQHVH�Warlords, the Syrian regime managed to maintain a circle of allies that enabled it to continue to have a strong grip on /HEDQHVH� LQWHUQDO� DIIDLUV��7KLV� JULS�ZDV�UHLQIRUFHG� LQ� WKH� 7D·LI� $JUHHPHQWV� RI��VLJQHG�LQ�6DXGL�$UDELD��7KHVH�DJUHH-ments provided for the end of all hostili-ties, thus effectively marking the end of WKH��\HDU�/HEDQHVH�&LYLO�:DU��)LQDOO\��WKH� VLJQLQJ� RI� D� ELODWHUDO� WUHDW\� LQ� ��legitimised Syrian military presence in /HEDQRQ��%\�WKHQ��6\ULD·V�LQYROYHPHQW�LQ�

Members of the Free Syrian Army cleaning weapons during Battle of Aleppo

Image courtesy of Scott Bobb © 2012

/HEDQRQ·V�LQWHUQDO�DIIDLUV�EHJDQ�WR�GLYLGH�/HEDQHVH�VRFLHW\��:KLOH�+H]EROODK�OHDGHU�Hassan Nasrallah shouted in the streets of %HLUXW� WKDW�� ¶1R� RQH� FDQ� IRUFH� 6\ULD� RXW�RI�/HEDQRQ�� LWV�PLQG�� LWV� KHDUW�� RU� RXW� RI�LWV� IXWXUH·� RWKHU� IDFWLRQV� FDPH� RXW� LQ� WKH�streetsto protest the prolonged continued 6\ULDQ� SUHVHQFH� LQ� /HEDQRQ�� 7KH� 6\ULDQ�DUPHG�IRUFHV�ZHUH�RIÀFLDOO\�H[SHOOHG�IURP�/HEDQRQ� LQ��KRZHYHU� WKHLU�SUHVHQFH�can still be felt through Syrian intelligence assets in the country. The important con-clusion to be drawn from this short his-WRU\�OHVVRQ�RQ�6\ULDQ�/HEDQHVH�UHODWLRQV�LV�that the history of both countries has been quite intertwined since the days of French colonial rule, with Syria always keeping a

ZDWFKIXO�H\H�RYHU/HEDQRQ��DFFRPSDQLHG�by a heavy hand in its internal affairs and a long-standing military presence that ODVWHG�XQWLO�� However, saying this relationship was not a two-way street would be conceal-ing part of the truth.Indeed, as astutely revealed by Professor Jamal Wakim of WKH� /HEDQHVH� ,QWHUQDWLRQDO� 8QLYHUVLW\��Syria has undeniably been intervening LQ�/HEDQHVH�DIIDLUV�IRU�WKH�SDVW��\HDUV��however little attention is given to the IDFW� WKDW� /HEDQRQ� KDV� VHUYHG� DV� DQ� HQ-try point for any intervention in internal Syrian affairs. All the coups in Syria be-WZHHQ��DQG��KDYH�EHHQ�SODQQHG�DQG� ODXQFKHG�IURP�%HLUXW��DQG�/HEDQRQ�has served as a logistical support base for the groups orchestrating the coups. It is hence a two-way street when it comes to PHGGOLQJ� LQWR� HDFK� RWKHU·V� DIIDLUV��7KLV�proves particularly true in the context of WKH�6\ULDQ�FRQÁLFW�

Syria .


Syria .7KH�7ZR�:D\�6WUHHW�WKDW�)HHGV�WKH�&RQÁLFW These historical ties have left deep marks in both countries. The legacy of the Syr-LDQ� UXOH� RYHU� /HEDQRQ� FRQWLQXHV� WR� SROD-ULVH� /HEDQHVH� VRFLHW\� LQWR� WZR�PDLQ� FDW-egories: those who wholeheartedly support the Assad regime and those who harbour a deep distrust and hatred towards the re-gime. Noticeable supporters of al-Assad and the current Syrian regime are the Hez-EROODK��ZLWK�ZKRP�$VVDG·V�UHJLPH�KDV�KDG�good relations since the second invasion RI�/HEDQRQ�E\�,VUDHO�LQ��RU��"��DV�ZHOO� DV� WKH�$ODZLWH�PLQRULW\� LQ�/HEDQRQ��The Alawites are an Islamic group, esti-PDWHG�WR�FRPSULVH�DQ\ZKHUH�EHWZHHQ��WR��·��SHRSOH��PDLQO\�EDVHG�LQ�6\ULD��7KH\�IRUP�D�PLQRULW\�LQ�/HEDQRQ�DQG�7XU-key, and have been empowered in Syriaby the Assad family, themselves members of this community. The Christian minority also leans more towards supporting the $VVDG� UHJLPH�� LI� WKH� FRPPXQLW\·V� OHDGHU�0LFKHO� $RXQ·V� RSHQ� VXSSRUW� RI� +H]ERO-lah and the Syrian regime is any indicator. Feeling increasingly threatened particular-ly by the Islamic factions of the opposition ÀJKWHUV� LQ�6\ULD�� DQG� WKH� LQÁX[�RI�QHDUO\�RQH�PLOOLRQ�6\ULDQ�UHIXJHHV�LQWR�/HEDQRQ��VRPH��·��FKRVH�WR�VHWWOH�LQ�%HNDD�9DO-ley, near theborder, a bastion of the Chris-WLDQ�FRPPXQLW\�LQ�/HEDQRQ�� It is that very Valley that seems to be the key to understanding the two-way spillover that is occurring, and that is feed-LQJ� WKH� 6\ULDQ� FRQÁLFW�� DV�ZHOO� DV� JLYLQJ�ULVH�WR�D�SRVVLEO\�VLPLODU�FRQÁLFW�LQ�/HED-non. A large, mostly impoverished, region right at the border with Syria, the Bekaa Valley bears witness to a free circulation of people and weapons. Hundreds of thou-VDQGV�RI�6\ULDQ�UHIXJHHV�DUH�ÁRFNLQJ�WR�WKH�Valley and other parts in the North of the country and setting up makeshift camps. )URP�/HEDQRQ��WKH�%HNDD�9DOOH\�EHFRPHV�a crucial crossing point for members of the Sunni community, longtime supporters of the rebel factions in Syria, as well as for supporters of the Syrian regime. The question is whether these popu-ODWLRQ�PRYHPHQWV�DUH�PRYLQJ�WKH�FRQÁLFW�closer to the border. Christian residents of the Valley fear the proximity of rebel groups like the Jabhat-al-Nusra, the Syr-LDQ�EUDQFK�RI�¶,VODPLF�6WDWH�RI�,UDT�DQG�WKH�/HYDQW·��DQ�DO�4DHGD�DIÀOLDWH�7KLV�SDUWLFX-lar group poses a considerable threat to the residents of the Bekaa Valley, home mostly to pro-Assad Christians as well as to vari-ous different communities of refugees who do not necessarily endorse Jabhat-al-Nus-UD·V�YLHZ�RQ�WKH�IXWXUH�RI�6\ULD��

More inland, the refugee situation has VWUDLQHG� WKH� FRXQWU\·V� DOUHDG\� XQVWDEOH�economy and fragile social fabric. With the issue of who supports whom already dividing the country, the refugees, who bring their memories and ideological baggage along with them, merely render the situation more volatile. Indeed, they simply accentuate the social cleavage, and provide breeding ground for com-PXQLWDULDQ� FRQÁLFW�� ,Q� WKH� QRUWKHUQ� FLW\�of Tripoli for instance, armed clashes be-WZHHQ�$OHZLWHV� �SUR�$VVDG�� DQG� 6XQQLV��SUR�5HEHOV��KDYH�EHHQ�UHSRUWHG��DV�ZHOO�as at least two instances of terrorist at-tacks against Sunni Mosques in mid-Au-JXVW��IROORZLQJ�D�FDU�ERPE�DWWDFN�LQ�a densely Shiite neighbourhood of Beirut earlier in that month. Insecurity and com-munitarian violence are thus on the rise DQG�/HEDQRQ�LV�VORZO\�IDOOLQJ�SUH\�WR�WKH�very demons that led it to the deadly civil ZDU�LQ��

‘The Worst is Yet to Come’ As such, it is becoming increasingly DSSDUHQW� WKDW� WKH� IDWH� RI� WKH� WZR� ¶6LE-OLQJ�6WDWHV·�LV�FORVHO\�LQWHUWZLQHG��:KLOH�the threat of a spillover into Turkey and Iraq is indeed one to be taken very seri-RXVO\��WKH�FDVH�RI�/HEDQRQ�UHPDLQV�TXLWH�complex as a spillover is slowly becom-ing an inevitable certainty. To speak of a VROHO\� 6\ULDQ� FRQÁLFW� ZRXOG� LJQRUH� WKH�actual situation on the ground. Indeed, ÀUVWO\�� WKLV� FRQÁLFW� FDQ� EH� VHHQ� XQGHU� D�¶1HZ�:DUV·� WKHRUHWLFDO� OHQV��PHDQLQJ� LW�LV� D� ORZ�LQWHQVLW\� FRQÁLFW� WKDW� LQYROYHV�a variety of actors from different ethnic origins and nationalities, using uncon-ventional methods of warfare (terrorism, DPEXVKLQJ��KRVWDJH�WDNLQJ��0RUH�SDUWLF-ularly however, the current regional cli-PDWH�ZRXOG�EH�YHU\�GLIIHUHQW�LI�/HEDQRQ�and Syria were not so deeply connected. Their history is one of co-dependence and sustained strong, yet unstable ties. � � � �7KH� FRQÁLFW� KDV� DOUHDG\� FURVVHG� WKH�permeable border between the two States. Indeed, it feeds itself on the sectarian and FRPPXQLWDULDQ� GLYLGH� LQ� /HEDQRQ�� DQG�the constant stream of people moving be-tween both countries. What is considered as a Syrian problem is slowly becoming a serious bilateral issue. In the powerful ZRUGV�RI�$VKUD�5LÀ�� WKH�IRUPHU�KHDG�RI�WKH� /HEDQHVH� ,QWHUQDO� 6HFXULW\� )RUFHV��´7KH� ÁDPH� KDV� HQWHUHG� /HEDQRQ�� DQG�WKH�ZRUVH�LV�\HW�WR�FRPHµ��,QGHHG�XQDEOH�to be put out or contained at home, the ÁDPH�RI�WKH�6\ULDQ�FRQÁLFW�XQIRUWXQDWH-O\� VHHPV� WREH� VSUHDGLQJ� OLNH�ZLOGÀUH� LQ�/HEDQRQ�

This Fight Just Got Dirty:The Illicit Funding of the 6\ULDQ�&RQÁLFWMimi Taylor Money and guns are equally important when it comes to waging war. The case of Syria is typical: there are many external DJHQWV��EDQNUROOLQJ� WKH�YDULRXV�FRQÁLFWLQJ�factions. Some members of the Security Council have decided to take matters into their own hands by forming secret - or not-VR� ²VHFUHW� �� DOOLDQFHV� UHÁHFWLQJ� WKHLU� RZQ�personal political agendas rather than the values of international peace, security, and VWDWH�VRYHUHLJQW\��DV�HVSRXVHG�E\�WKH�8QLWHG�Nations. Even private donors are getting in on the action, either to support groups with whom they share an ideology, or to further theirpolitical aspirations. With no end in sight, and victory uncer-WDLQ� IRU� HLWKHU� VLGH�� WKH� 6\ULDQFRQÁLFW� KDV�now entered its third year. Even the most LQÁXHQWLDO� LQWHUQDWLRQDO� LQVWLWXWLRQV�DSSHDU�to be apprehensive about the futureof Syria, after most of the tentative diplomatic reso-lutions have proven unsuccessful thus far. :KLOH�WKH�81�FRQWLQXHV�WR�GHEDWH��ERWK�WKH�government and the rebel opposition have been forced to be creative when it comes to IXQGLQJ�WKH�ÀJKWLQJ�� According to The Economist, unemploy-PHQW�KDV� ULVHQ� WR��VLQFH� WKH�RXWEUHDN�RI� ÀJKWLQJ� DQG� RLO� SURGXFWLRQ� KDV� VKUXQN�WR�DOPRVW��EDUUHOV�SHU�GD\��ZKLFK�LV�TXLWH� D� IDOO� IURP� WKH� �� EDUUHOVWKDW�were previously produced in peacetime. )XUWKHUPRUH�� WKH� FRQÁLFW� KDV� FRPSOHWHO\�HUDGLFDWHG�WKH��RI�WKH�HFRQRP\�UHSUH-VHQWLQJ�WRXULVP�DV�ODWH�DV��*LYHQ�WKH�UHVXOWLQJ�GLUH�ÀQDQFLDO�VLWX-ation, one might expect the Syrian gov-ernment to struggle to maintain its cur-rent levels of military expenditure. Yet President Bashar al-Assad can count on IULHQGO\� UHODWLRQV� ZLWK� ,UDQ� DQG� 5XVVLD��who have extended credit and pre-existing weapon deals to allow the government to limp along, badly damaged, but not by any means out for the count. Another ally is He-]EROODK��D�PLOLWDU\�JURXS�EDVHG�LQ�/HEDQRQ�ZLWK�WLHV�WR�,UDQ��ZKLFK�KDV�MRLQHG�WKH�ÀJKW-LQJ�DORQJVLGH�WKH�UHJLPH��GXH�WR�LWV�DIÀQL-ties shared with the predominately Shiite-ruled government. � � � � �2Q� WKH� RWKHU� VLGH� RI� WKH�ÀJKWLQJ�� WKH�more moderate rebel groups, such as the Syrian National Coalition, were promised ÀQDQFLDO�DQG�OLPLWHG�PLOLWDU\�DLG�E\�WKH�LQ-ternational community, but the bulk of these SURPLVHV� UHPDLQ� XQGHOLYHUHG�� 7KH� 8QLWHG�


Syria .

States and Britain offered non-lethal aid in March and this was later extended to sup-plying light weapons, but the shadow of the most recent Iraq War and the fear of being tied into another war have held them back. So now other regional donors have started stepping forward. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have notably offered extensive assistance to Sunni Islamist rebel groups through wire transfers and arms in the hope of being able WR�VKDSH�WKH�SRVW�FRQÁLFW�ODQGVFDSH�WR�WKHLU�DGYDQWDJH��4DWDU�DORQH�KDV�VSHQW�DOPRVW��billion in the space of two years trying to DFKLHYH�D�GHFLVLYH�HQG�WR�WKH�FRQÁLFW�� Yet these Gulf nations are not the only players to become involved and have stakes in the end result. Non-state actors are also evolvinginto a common feature of the con-ÁLFW� ZKHUH� SULYDWH� GRQDWLRQV� KDYH� EHHQ�reaching extreme Islamist rebel groups thanks to Twitter wherefollowers are urged to support the rebel cause. YouTube is an-other technological medium through which soldiers have been posting pleas online or even posting thank you notes to their gener-ous but anonymous sponsors. Determining the exact amount of mon-ey that has been transferred illicitly is a notoriously hard enterprise in the global economy. This task is virtually impossible LQ�D�FRQÁLFW�VSLUDOOLQJ�RXW�RI�FRQWURO�ZKHUH�moderate rebels that have been formally EDFNHG�E\�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�DUH�VORZO\�EH-ing undermined by emerging factions with-in the opposition. An opposition businessman stated to the )LQDQFLDO�7LPHV��´<RX�FDQ·W�EX\�D�UHYROX-

WLRQ�µ�:KLOH�WKLV�LV�EURDGO\�WUXH��DV�PDQ\�revolutions areideologically based, alli-DQFHV�DQG�LQÁXHQFH�FDQ�DOZD\V�EH�ERXJKW�LQ�WLPHV�RI�FRQÁLFW��0RQH\�LVQ·W�WKH�RQO\�PHDQV�RI�ÀQDQF-LQJ� WKH�FRQÁLFW�� ,Q�DQ�DUWLFOH�ZULWWHQ�IRU�7,0(�� D� /HEDQHVH� ERUGHU� RIÀFLDO� UH-members examining parts of a shipment containing a water heating system, only WR� ÀQG� WKDW� LW� ZDV� DFWXDOO\� D� FRQWDLQHU�KROGLQJ� VHYHUDO�PLOOLRQ� GROODUV·�ZRUWKRI�DPSKHWDPLQH� WDEOHWV�� ´7KH� ERLOHU� ZDV�made in Syria, and the waythe tablets ZHUH�KLGGHQ��LW�ZDV�FOHDU�WKDW�WKH\�KDGQ·W�been just stuffed inside. That unit was IRUPHG�DURXQG�WKH�GUXJV��DW�WKH�IDFWRU\�µ He goes on to recount several more drug smuggling related incidents where Syrian dealers were caught while travel-ing to countries within close proximity. This particular drug is quite cheap to man-ufacture and can therefore be produced and effectively distributed by either side RI�WKH�FRQÁLFW��0DWWKHZ�/HYLWW��D�IRUPHU�8�6��7UHDVXU\�RIÀFLDO��FODLPHG�WKDW��´+H-zbollah has a long history of dabbling in the drug trade to help with funding, and &DSWDJRQ�� ZLWK� LWV� KLJK� SURÀW� PDUJLQV��is to them just another business oppor-WXQLW\µ��+LVWRULFDOO\�VSHDNLQJ��GUXJV�DQG�wars go hand in hand,and the Syrian con-ÁLFW�LV�SURYLQJ�WR�EH�DQRWKHU�H[DPSOH� Drugs are by far the commodities with the highest return upon export. The reli-ance on black market goods is a depar-ture from the more legitimate economic ventures tentatively promoted by the Eu-

URSHDQ�8QLRQ�DQG�WKH�SURFODLPHG�LQWHQ-WLRQ�WR�HDVH�WKH�RLO�HPEDUJR�RQ�WKH��QG�of April. ��7KLV�FRXUVH�RI�DFWLRQ�KDVQ·W�HQMR\HG�the same rapid success as its illicit coun-terpart. The rationale behind such a con-troversial decisionis that it would provide a legitimate source of income for those belonging to the moderate opposition and open trade with Europe once again. Europe is the largest consumer of Syrian oil, and oil exports to Europe grant Syria at least some semblance of economic sta-bility. However, even though the promise of legal money is in the air, the techni-FDO�GLIÀFXOWLHV�PD\�UHQGHU�WKH�DJUHHPHQW�obsolete as factions commence scramble IRU�UHVRXUFHV��5HSRUWV�KDYH�HPHUJHG�WKDW�UHEHO�ÀJKWLQJ�LQ�WKH�QRUWK�KDV�HDVHG�LQ�RU-der to facilitate negotiations. One of the more innovative means of ÀQDQFLQJ�WKH�FRQÁLFW�KDV�EHHQWKH�ORRWLQJ�of museums and heritage sites by rebel forces. These artefacts are then sold on the black market where they can fetch large sums. Some reports have noted that military weapons are the preferred ex-change over cash and therefore it appears WR�EH�D�FDVH�RI�H[FKDQJLQJ�6\ULD·V�FXOWXU-al heritage for guns. Every single one of WKH�81(6&2�KHULWDJH�VLWHV�LQ�6\ULD�KDV�been partially or completely destroyed by WKH�ÀJKWLQJ��7KH�:DVKLQJ�3RVW�KDV�SXE-OLVKHG� DQ� LQWHUYLHZ�ZLWK� D� UHEHO� ÀJKWHU�ZKR�GHFODUHV��´6RPH�GD\V�ZH�DUH�ÀJKW-HUV��RWKHUV�ZH�DUH�DUFKDHRORJLVWVµ��ZKLFK�sums up this new rolefor many rebels: 3DUW�WLPH�ÀJKWHU��SDUW�WLPH�VPXJJOHU�� While dirty money can be circulated ZLWK�VRPH�HDVH�� WKH�ÁRZ�RI�DLG� LV�PRUH�RI�D�WULFNOH�LQ�FRPSDULVRQ��7KH��ELOOLRQ�DSSHDO�PDGH�RQ�EHKDOI�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�1D-tions in June of this year will be the larg-HVW�LQ�WKH�RUJDQLVDWLRQ·V�KLVWRU\�DQG�ZLOO�VXUSDVV�WKH�VHFRQG�ODUJHVW��WKH��+RUQ�of Africa food famine, by almost double. In April of last year, the number of people UHTXLULQJ�KXPDQLWDULDQ�DLG�VWRRG�DW��PLO-lion. Twelve months later, this number has now skyrocketed to an astronomical ��PLOOLRQ�DQG�ZLOO�FRQWLQXH�WR�ULVH�WR��million by theend of the year. Therefore, illicit means of funding WKH� FRQÁLFW� ZLOO� ÁRXULVK�� DV� WKH� VWDNHV�LQ� WKH� FRQÁLFW� LQFUHDVH� ZLWK� HDFK� SDVV-LQJ�PRQWK�� ,Q� WXUQ�� WKH� ÀJKWLQJ�ZLOO� EH�ÀQDQFHG�E\�D�ZKROH�KRVW�RI�GRQRUV�IURP�all over the world, all of whom want to bet on the winner. Yet ultimately the Syr-ian population pays the real price and incur the real loss, regardless of which faction gains control of the state.

A soldier in the ruins of AleppoImage courtesy of Scott Bobb © 2012

Europe and World .

� � � � � �0DULD·V� GD]HG� H[SUHVVLRQ� JD]HG� RXW�from newspapers across the world. The sto-U\� RI� WKH� ¶DEGXFWHG·� ¶EORQGH� DQJHO·� IRXQG�GXULQJ�D�SROLFH�UDLG�RQ�D�*UHHN�5RPD�VLWH�sparked an international search for the FKLOG·V� ELRORJLFDO� SDUHQWV� DQG� UDLVHG� WKH�hopes of parents of abducted children as far DZD\�DV�WKH�86$� It seemed clear that this shockingly blonde, bewildered child could not belong WR�WKH�GDUNHU�VNLQQHG�5RPD�FRXSOH�&KULVWRV�Salis and Eleftheria Dimapoulou, who in-VLVWHG�WKDW�D�%XOJDULDQ�ZRPDQ�KDG�¶JLYHQ·�the child to them. Of course they denied the allegations that Maria had been abducted and sold to them, but their account was met with widespread incredulity. � � � �:KHQ� '1$� SURÀOLQJ� PDWFKHG� 0DULD�WR�KHU�PRWKHU��6DVKD�5XVHYD�� WKH� DFFXVHG�5RPD�FRXSOH�ZHUH�KDUGO\�YLQGLFDWHG��5X-seva had been working in Greece as an ol-LYH�SLFNHU�LQ��DQG�OHIW�WKH�FKLOG�EHKLQG�as she was too poor to care for her. While 0DULD·V�DGRSWLRQ�ZDV�QRW�OHJDO��LW�ZDV�FOHDU�that Maria had not been abducted from Eu-URSH�RU�WKH�86��WUDIÀFNHG�RU�VROG��%XW�WKH�GDPDJH�KDG�EHHQ�GRQH�DQG�WKH�5RPD�KDG�been portrayed across global media as child snatchers. The international hysteria surrounding this case has only deepened the intense

mistrust and stigma Europeans have his-WRULFDOO\� VKRZQ� WRZDUG� 5RPD� FRPPXQL-WLHV��,W·V�VKRFNLQJ�WR�GLVFRYHU� WKDW�XQWLO�DV�UHFHQWO\�DV�WKH��V�LQ�IRUPHU�&]HFKRVOR-vakia, the government supported a policy RI�UHGXFLQJ�WKH�5RPD�SRSXODWLRQ�E\�VWHULO-L]LQJ�DQ�HVWLPDWHG��5RPDQL�ZRPHQ��without their consent, when they went to hospital for a caesarean section or abortion. In the new millennium, crackdowns on XQSRSXODU�5RPD�LPPLJUDQWV�DUH�VXUH�YRWH�winners for any party in need of a media stunt to prove they are not soft on illegal immigration. The former French Presi-dent Nicolas Sarkozy made headlines for supporting the controversial repatriation RI�PDQ\�5RPD� IDPLOLHV� LQ� �� DQG� MXVW�GD\V�DIWHU�0DULD·V�FDVH�PDGH�ZRUOG�QHZV��D�ODUJH�5RPD�FDPS�LQ�0DUVHLOOH�ZDV�FOHDUHG�by French police, displacing ninety fami-lies who disappeared into the night. Only the week before, there was outrage across )UDQFH� DIWHU� LPPLJUDWLRQ� RIÀFHUV� GUDJJHG�D��\HDU�ROG�5RPD�JLUO�RII�RI�D�VFKRRO�EXV�in front of her classmates and deported her back to Kosovo the same day. Further East, 0DULD·V�FDVH�SUREDEO\�HQFRXUDJHG�WKH�6NLQ-heads in the Serbian town of Novi Sad, who aggressively challenged a dark-skinned fa-ther to prove that his blonde child was re-ally his own- outside his own home.� � � � � � �0RUH�UHFHQWO\�LQ�WKH�8.��1LJHO�)DU-DJH��OHDGHU�RI�WKH�8.�,QGHSHQGHQFH�3DUW\��

made a strange alliance with David Blunket, FDOOLQJ�IRU�DGPLUDWLRQ�RI�WKH�IRUPHU�/DERXU�Home Secretary who has claimed that the SRVVLEOH�LQÁX[�RI�5RPD�PLJUDQWV�WR�%ULWDLQ�next year could cause riots. He also called IRU�5RPD�PLJUDQWV�WR�́ FKDQJH�WKHLU�FXOWXUHµ��stating that their current behaviour was causing tensions in northern English towns. ��7R�HQJDJH�ZLWK�WKH�5RPD�SURSHUO\�DQG�to begin a process of integration instead of scapegoating them is not a popular policy to be found anywhere in Europe. Social welfare budgets are tight Europe-wide and right-wing parties are gaining ground in response to the depressing economic situ-ation. Immigrants and outsiders are being scapegoated for taking jobs at a time when youth unemployment is at an all-time high. The lifting of travel restrictions on the poor-HVW� SHRSOH� RI� WKH� (8�ZLOO� RQO\� H[DFHUEDWH�these tensions. Those living in Bulgaria and 5RPDQLD��ZKHUH�PRVW�5RPD�IDPLOLHV�UHVLGH��are unlikely to stay put. Sadly the blonde Angel did little but UHLQIRUFH�WKH�VWLJPDWLVDWLRQ�RI�5RPD�DFURVV�Europe. Proved not to be an abducted child from a richer country, the media interest has ZDQHG��OHDYLQJ�WKH�5RPD�IUHVKO\�WDUQLVKHG��With the Eurozone immigration laws set to EH�UHOD[HG�IRU�5RPDQLD�DQG�%XOJDULD�HDUO\�QH[W�\HDU��DQ\�5RPD�FURVVLQJ�WKH�ERUGHUV�WR�ÀQG� D� EHWWHU� OLIH� HOVHZKHUH� DUH� XQOLNHO\� WR�ÀQG�D�ZDUP�ZHOFRPH�

Blonde Angel BlunderCharles Bell


��7KH�(XURSHDQ�8QLRQ�OLHV�LQFRQYHQLHQW-ly in a permanent state of contention. This is a most invidious position and should EH�UHPHGLHG�ZLWK�DOO�KDVWH��7KH�(8�KDV�D�deep reservoir of potential that ought to be tapped and utilised for the collective good. Yet, this innate potential can only EH� UHDOLVHG� LI� WKH�(8�SURYHV� LWV�ZRUWK� DV�a potent regional institution. This is a task that Europhiles have thus far categorically IDLOHG�WR�GR��3UHVHQW�HFRQRPLF�GLIÀFXOWLHV�have swelled the ranks of Euroscepticism, and this reactionary movement appears on FRXUVH�WR�HQJXOI�WKH�WRWDOLW\�RI�WKH�(8�SURM-ect. We, as Europeans, currently lie at a cross-roads of history. The question before us is whether we plunge for reforming the ties RI� IHOORZVKLS��RU�GR�ZH�SHUPLW� WKH�(8�WR�dissipate and collapse into the dustbin of history?� � � 7KH� (8� LV� E\� QR�PHDQV� SHUIHFW�� 5RRW�and branch reform is needed in order to LPSURYH� WKH� VWDQGLQJ� RI� (8� LQVWLWXWLRQV�LQ�WKH�PLQGV�RI�WKH�FRQWLQHQW·V�SRSXODFHV��However, at its heart, the founding and guiding principles behind European inte-gration are noble and honourable. When politics, as it so often does, descends into petty squabbles, we should not forget the YDVW�LPSURYHPHQWV�WKDW�WKH�(8�KDV�PDGH�WR�its member states over the years. As an un-ashamed advocate of the European project, I believe it is time for Europhile parties to join together to vociferously promote the project we care so deeply about. By recognising the imperfection of the (8��ZH�VKRXOG�VWULYH�WR�DGGUHVV�DQG�RYHU-FRPH�LWV�ÁDZV��UDWKHU�WKDQ�LGO\�PRDQ�DQG�groan about problems. We should thus characteristically embrace our political natures by throwing ourselves eagerly into WKH�WDVN�RI�LPSURYLQJ�WKH�(8�� By appreciating the larger vision, it be-FRPHV�PRUH� GLIÀFXOW� WR� VXJJHVW� WKH� UHDF-WLRQDU\� RSWLRQ� RI� GHSDUWLQJ� IURP� WKH� (8�altogether. It is, after all, a cosmopoli-tan project embarked upon by European elites to strengthen and deepen the bonds of friendship and cooperation. Contrary to popular opinion, I do not consider the (8·V�SULPDU\�SXUSRVH�WR�EH�WKH�DYRLGDQFH�of another catastrophic European war. The ¶'HPRFUDWLF� 3HDFH� 7KHVLV·� VKRZV� WKDW�ORQJ�VWDQGLQJ� GHPRFUDFLHV� GR� QRW� ÀJKW�one another. Since post-war Europe has not witnessed the cancerous growth of fas-cism, it was never likely that the prospect

of war would loom large on the horizon.� � � � � ,QVWHDG�� ,� EHOLHYH� WKDW� WKH� (8� EORV-somed from the recognition that tying the bonds of complex interdependence would be advantageous to national interests. The (8�ZDV�ERUQ�IURP�RSWLPLVWLF�YDOXHV�DQG�utilitarian aspirations. It was only natural for disagreement to surface after gluing nations together in such a manner. One LUUHPRYDEOH� WKRUQ� LQ� WKH� (8·V� IUDJLOH�frame is the undying passions aroused by WKH�ÁDPH�RI�QDWLRQDOLVP��7KH�SRWHQF\�RI�national identity has a long history and its ideological facets continue to play an inte-gral role in the formation of identities. To HQVXUH� WKH�VXFFHVV�RI� WKH�(8�� LWV� OHDGHUV�will need to actively promote a European identity that will permanently permeate the imaginations of all inhabiting popu-laces. The ingredients of nationalism in-clude a conviction that fellow comrades enjoy a shared culture, religion, history, education, communal consciousness and literary awareness. Without the serious application of these qualities to European identity, the project will never stand a chance of digging an unshakeable well of trust and will never engender the eternal ties of affection. ��7KH�IXOÀOPHQW�RI�WKLV�REMHFWLYH�UHTXLUHV�a multifaceted method. For one, national and regional newspapers need to cease adopting innately Eurosceptic opinions. 7KH\� VKRXOG� ORRN� DW�(8�SURFHHGLQJV� UD-tionally and give equal weight to report-LQJ� WKH� WULXPSKV� RI� WKH� (8�� LQ� DGGLWLRQ�to the necessary relaying of some of the more unfavourable practices. Further-more, Europhile parties need to more vig-RURXVO\� SURFODLP� WKH� (8·V� VXFFHVVHV� WR�audiences and voters, who so often whim-sically adopt venomous attitudes towards WKH�(8��7KH�FORXGV�RI� VXVSLFLRQ�DQG� WKH�nettles of mendacity must be combatted with greater might than they are at pres-ent. Indeed, a rigorous campaign needs to be mounted so that capricious sceptics ac-knowledge the folly of their plans to cast Britain out into the wilderness. One unravelling and perturbing trend is the ascendancy of Euroscepticism in Brit-ain. The Conservative Party has pledged DQ� LQ�RXW� UHIHUHQGXP� RQ�%ULWDLQ·V�PHP-EHUVKLS� RI� WKH� (8� LQ� �� /DERXU� KDV�consequently been compelled to rethink LWV�VWUDWHJ\�RQ�(XURSH��0RUHRYHU��LQ��the Coalition government passed an Act stating that no more powers could be re-linquished from Westminster to Brussels ZLWKRXW� WKH� H[SOLFLW� FRQVHQW� RI� DQ� ¶D\H·�vote in a referendum. These phenomena suggest that Britain will not witness fur-ther integration in the near future.

Although David Cameron wishes to UHPDLQ� LQ� WKH� (8�� KLV� �� UHIHUHQGXP�promise is immensely risky. This gamble ZLWK�%ULWDLQ·V�IXWXUH�GRHV�QRW�DPRXQW�WR�D�playful bet on a racecourse; instead, paral-lels could be drawn to a high-stakes poker match in Monte Carlo. Cameron has load-ed a momentous burden on his shoulders. He needs to extract concrete promises from his European partners regarding the 8.�3DUOLDPHQW·V�FDSDFLW\�WR�UHFODLP�VRPH�of its former sovereign powers. If Cam-HURQ·V�UHQHJRWLDWLRQ�IDLOV�WR�GHOLYHU�WKH�H[-WHQW�RI�SRZHUV�KH�H[SHFWV��WKH�8.�ZLOO�EH�PRUH�OLNHO\�WR�YRWH�¶\HV·�LQ�IDYRXU�RI�OHDY-LQJ�WKH�(8�LQ�D�UHIHUHQGXP��7KLV�RXWFRPH�would have catastrophic consequences for %ULWDLQ·V�ZRUOG�SRVLWLRQ�� 5HIHUHQGXPV� DUH� EHFRPLQJ� LQFUHDV-LQJO\� UHJXODU� IHDWXUHV� RI� %ULWDLQ·V� GHPR-FUDWLF� SURFHVV�� ,I� WKH� �� UHIHUHQGXP�goes ahead, Cameron will have presided over three referendums during his stew-ardship of the reins of power. Although referendums seem democratic expressions RI�QDWLRQDO�ZLOO��WKH\�DUH�QRW�ZLWKRXW�ÁDZV��When deliberating on important fork-in-the-road occasions, a pertinent maxim is ´H[DPLQH� DOO� WKLQJV�� KROG� IDVW� WR�ZKDW� LV�JRRGµ�� 8QIRUWXQDWHO\�� QRW� HYHU\ERG\� LQ�a referendum will have the inclination or WLPH�WR�´H[DPLQH�DOO� WKLQJVµ��0DQ\�FUHG-ible sources of empirical evidence may not reach their eyes or ears. People may end up casting capricious votes without having ascertained all the facts. Impulsive deci-sions are the enemy of the calm consider-ation required for decisions of this gravity. ,W� LV� XQZLVH� WR� EDUWHU� %ULWDLQ·V� IXWXUH� LQ�such a careless fashion. Even though I do not consider a refer-endum essential, I am no wild proponent RI� WKH�(8�PDUFKLQJ�RQZDUGV� WRZDUGV� WR-tal amalgamation against the will of a be-grudged population. Instead, I believe we VKRXOG� DGRSW� VRPH� RI� (GPXQG� %XUNH·V�SULQFLSOHV�DQG�DOORZ� WKH�(8�WR�JURZ�DQG�mature gradually and in an evolutionary manner. We should not contemplate rushed WUHDWLHV�WR�IXUWKHU�HPSRZHU�WKH�(8�DJDLQVW�democratic wishes. Instead, we should try DQG�WHVW�ZD\V�LQ�ZKLFK�WKH�(8�FRXOG�ZRUN�together and formalise such cooperation if it proves predominantly successful. The world appears to be compartmental-ising into regional blocs. This odd parallel of regionalisation and globalisation is one of the kaleidoscopic processes materialis-ing in our radically changing world. How-HYHU��DV�RI�\HW��WKH�(8�KDV�QRW�DGDSWHG�WR�these changing circumstances. Academics GHSLFW�WKH�(8�DV�DQ�HFRQRPLF�VXSHUSRZHU��EXW�DOVR�D�¶SROLWLFDO�GZDUI·��:H�FDQQRW�DI-

7KH�(8��%ULWDLQ·V�1HZ�Jewel in the CrownMichael Cotterill

Europe and World .


Europe and World .ford to be a dwarf in a multilateral world EULPPLQJ�ZLWK� JLDQWV�� 7KH� %5,&V� DUH� LQ�WKH� DVFHQGDQF\� DQG� 2EDPD·V�$PHULFD� LV�QR�ORQJHU�SULRULWLVLQJ�WKH�¶VSHFLDO�UHODWLRQ-VKLS·� ZLWK� %ULWDLQ�� 7KH� DJH� LQ� ZKLFK� ZH�ZHUH�WKH�¶SROLFHPDQ�RI�WKH�ZRUOG·�KDV�ORQJ�SDVVHG�� 1RZ� ZH� PXVW� ÀJKW� WR� EH� KHDUG��The best conceivable route through which WR�¶SXQFK�DERYH�RXU�ZHLJKW·�LV�WR�FRQVROL-date our connection with Europe. The sphere of foreign policy is an arena in which building cordial links with Eu-rope would be undoubtedly advantageous. 7KH�IDFW�RI�WKH�PDWWHU�LV�WKDW�WKH�86�ZRXOG�like a strong British voice in Europe, and British leverage in Washington would in-H[RUDEO\�GLPLQLVK�LI�WKH�8.�ZHUH�WR�OHDYH�WKH�(8��$EDQGRQLQJ�WKH�(XURSHDQ�SURMHFW�would be seen as a symbol of weakness and signify a lack of seriousness. Britain would be viewed as a country that allows populist tendencies to overpower core na-tional interests. This would be profoundly deleterious to our international standing. Furthermore, why would we abandon a ship that is sailing towards a favourable VKRUH"�7KH�(8� LV� EHFRPLQJ� D�PRUH�ÁH[-ible, dynamic, organic body as more and PRUH�(8�FRXQWULHV�GHVLVW�IURP�VXJJHVWLQJ�major leaps forward towards enhanced fu-VLRQ�� $GGLWLRQDOO\�� WKH� 8.� KDV� LQYHVWHG�titanic efforts into driving forward plans IRU� D�86�(8� WUDGH� GHDO� WKDW�ZRXOG� EH� RI�enormous advantage to all concerned. $EDQGRQLQJ�WKH�(8�ZRXOG�EH�DNLQ�WR�OHDY-ing a cosy, sociable party where a feast of opportunity is laid spread, and committing self-harm by jumping into the rough, spar-tan, frugal, arid wasteland of the global SHULSKHU\�� :H� FDQQRW� SHUPLW� WKH� 8.,3�LQVSLUHG�(XURVFHSWLFV� ¶PDG�KDWWHUV·� WR�JHW�away with their pernicious plan. Overall, it should be a truth universally acknowledged that British society has been HQULFKHG� E\� RXU� PHPEHUVKLS� RI� WKH� (8��Environmental standards have improved beyond recognition, human rights have been safeguarded on multiple levels, free markets have vastly expanded trading op-SRUWXQLWLHV��PDQ\�RI� WKH�8.·V�SRRUHVW�DU-eas have received extensive foreign direct investment, labour markets have struck an HQYLDEOH� EDODQFH� EHWZHHQ� ÁH[LELOLW\� DQG�fairness, Britain plays a pivotal role in de-cision-making processes, we are realising RXU�FDSDFLW\�WR�VKDSH�WKH�(8�LQWR�DQ�DWWUDF-WLYH�HQWLW\��DQG�WKH�(8�KDV�SHUIRUPHG�FRQ-structive roles in Bosnia and in conducting peacekeeping operations. The success of WKH�(8�LV�HPERGLHG�LQ�WKH�FRORVVDO�SLOH�RI�applications made by many countries to MRLQ�WKH�UDQNV�RI�WKH�(8�FRPPXQLW\�� To misquote Oscar Wilde: to suffer Eu-

roscepticism is a misfortune, but to leave WKH� (8� DOWRJHWKHU� ORRNV� OLNH� FDUHOHVV-ness. Dean Acheson famously and truth-IXOO\� SURFODLPHG�� ´%ULWDLQ� KDV� ORVW� DQ�HPSLUH�DQG�LV�\HW�WR�ÀQG�D�UROHµ��/RRNLQJ�back to the past, it seems sensible for the (8�WR�KDYH�ÀOOHG�WKH�YDFXXP�FUHDWHG�E\�WKH�ORVV�RI�(PSLUH��-RLQLQJ�WKH�(8�ZDV�D�ZD\�WR�VWRS�´PDQDJLQJ�RXU�GHFOLQHµ�DQG�remain a key player on the world stage. ��7KH��UHIHUHQGXP�LV�DQ�LPSHQGLQJ�incident of the most grievous kind. To prevail over the Eurosceptics will require a keen army of campaigners with unend-ing morale. But to succeed requires early planning, cast-iron persuasive evidence, DQG� WKH�ZLOO� WR� VHH� WKH� ÀJKW� WKURXJK� WR�WKH�HQG��/HW�XV�EHJLQ�WKH�PDPPRWK�WDVN�RI�PDLQWDLQLQJ�%ULWDLQ·V�SODFH�LQ�WKH�(8��We let the Eurosceptics win at our peril.

Confronted with the ongoing crisis LQ� 6\ULD�� D� SHULRG� LQ� ZKLFK� 5XVVLD� KDV�seemingly reverted to tactics reminis-FHQW� RI� $QGUHM� *URP\NR·V� XVH� RI� WKH�veto, which earned him the nickname ´0U�� 1\HWµ�� WKH� 81� 6HFXULW\� &RXQFLO��816&�� \HW� DJDLQ�� IDFHV� DJH�ROG� DOOH-gations of anachronism and widespread unworkability. Of course, these accusa-tions of self-interested policymaking are E\� QR�PHDQV� XQLTXH� WR� 5XVVLD�� WKH�86�frequently utilises the all-powerful veto to protect Israeli interests in the Middle East. Indeed, the stagnant politics of the 816&�DUH�ZHOO� NQRZQ�� ,� QHHG� QRW� GXOO�you with a history lesson. In virtually ev-ery international crisis Security Council PHPEHUV�YRWH�ÀUVW�WR�HQVXUH�WKDW�UHVROX-tions are favourable to their domestic in-WHUHVWV��6XFFHVVIXO� FRQÁLFW�PDQDJHPHQW�and resolution become afterthoughts, relegated to a de facto list of secondary priorities. As a consequence, the Secu-ULW\� &RXQFLO·V� IUHTXHQW� GHDGORFNV� SUH-YHQW� LW� IURP� ´PDLQWDLQLQJ� LQWHUQDWLRQDO�SHDFH�DQG�VHFXULW\µ�IRXQG�LQ�&KDSWHU�9�RI� WKH� 81� &KDUWHU�� ,QGHHG�� LW� IDLOV� VR�VSHFWDFXODUO\� LQ� IXOÀOOLQJ� LWV�PDQGDWH� LW�would border on the humorous if not for WKH�VHYHULW\�RI�WKH�LVVXH��7KLQN�5ZDQGD��.RVRYR��6RPDOLD��DG�LQÀQLWXP� Historically speaking, it is relatively HDV\� WR� WUDFH� WKH� RULJLQV� RI� WKH�816&��

Preliminary planning at the ambassado-rial level took place at Dumbarton Oaks LQ��ZKHUH�DOUHDG\�WKHUH�ZHUH�PXWWHU-ings of the possibility of a relatively ex-FOXVLYH�RUJDQ�RI� WKH�81�WKDW�ZRXOG�VHUYH�as a forum for deliberative action among WKH�¶JUHDW�SRZHUV·��7KLV�ZDV�IRUPDOLVHG�LQ�the Charter the following year in San Fran-cisco. Over the past half-century, however, two dominant narratives have emerged concerning the mindsets and attitudes of WKH� DUFKLWHFWV� RI� WKH�81��7KH� ÀUVW� SRVLWV�draftees simply assumed the allies would continue their cooperation into the post-war period. Of course, the mutual posses-sion of nuclear weapons by the opposing Eastern and Western blocs did not exist either at the time of writing (the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki came months DIWHU�WKH�6DQ�)UDQFLVFR�&RQIHUHQFH��&RQ-versely, those with a predisposition for scepticism argue the intentional concentra-tion of authority in the Security Council away from the General Assembly coupled ZLWK�WKH�H[LVWHQFH�RI�WKH�YHWR�UHÁHFWHG�WKH�fears of a possible direct superpower con-frontation. The relative inoperability of the 816&�ZDV��LQ�HIIHFW��PHDQW�WR�SUHVHUYH�WKH�status quo. For lack of a better word, we PD\�WHUP�WKH�ODWWHU�RI�WKHVH�WZR�FRQÁLFWLQJ�SDUDGLJPV�¶SUDJPDWLF�LI�QRW�VOLJKWO\�F\QL-FDO·��DQG�WKH�IRUPHU�¶RYHUO\�LGHDOLVWLF·��(LWKHU�ZD\��WKH�816&�FDQQRW�LQGHÀQLWH-ly ignore reality. Paralysis abounds. More-over, the lack of inclusivity and wholly undemocratic nature of the system lays in direct contradiction with the core principle of sovereign equality that underlies the in-ternational system. � � � � 3HUKDSV�PRVW� FUXFLDOO\�� WKH� 816&� LV�ZRHIXOO\�DQDFKURQLVWLF��UHÁHFWLQJ�WKH�JHR-SROLWLFV�RI� D�E\JRQH�HUD��7KH�ÀYH�SHUPD-QHQW� PHPEHUV� �3�� RQFH� VSRNH� IRU� FORVH�WR�IRUW\�SHUFHQW�RI�WKH�ZRUOG·V�SRSXODWLRQ��They now account for less than twenty-nine percent. In particular, France exer-FLVHV�D�OHYHO�RI�LQÁXHQFH�RQ�ZRUOG�SROLWLFV�WKDW�FDQQRW�EH�MXVWLÀHG�E\�LWV�PLOLWDU\��SR-litical, or economic ranking in the world. France provides only eighteen percent of WKH� (8·V� *'3� �� WULOOLRQ�� EHKLQG�ERWK�WKH�8.��WULOOLRQ��DQG�*HUPDQ\�� WULOOLRQ�� $GGLWLRQDOO\�� DVLGH� IURP�LWV�VXSSRUW�RI�1$72��)UHQFK�PLOLWDU\�LQÁX-ence is largely limited to Francophone re-JLRQV�RI�$IULFD��/LNHZLVH��WKH�8.��WKRXJK�H[WUHPHO\� SURÀFLHQW� LQ� WKH� DSSOLFDWLRQ� RI�¶VRIW�SRZHU·��KDV�VHHQ�D�FRQWLQXHG�GHFOLQH�in global prestige. Moreover, in the un-likely event that Scotland were to win next \HDU·V� LQGHSHQGHQFH� UHIHUHQGXP��:LOOLDP�Hague has warned that a corresponding loss in population and GDP would result in

On the Possibility of Security Council Reform and the Existence of UnicornsJustin McCarthy


Europe and World .

D�IXUWKHU�´GLPLQLVKHGµ�%ULWDLQ�� Conversely, regional power Germany, FROORTXLDOO\�UHIHUUHG�WR�DV�D�´3��µ�FRXQ-WU\� VLQFH� ��ZKHQ� LW� MRLQHG� WKH� URXQG�table and offered extensive participation in an attempt to effort to resolve the on-going nuclear saga in Iran, is yet to be afforded the coveted permanent Security &RXQFLO�VHDW��7KH�ZRUOG·V�ODUJHVW�GHPRF-UDF\��,QGLD��LV�H[FOXGHG��6R�WRR�DUH�RWKHU�regional powers such as Brazil and Japan. In wake of decolonisation a half-hearted venture largely meant to quell Afro-Arab JULHYDQFHV�ZDV� XQGHUWDNHQ�� DQG� LQ� ��the number of non-permanent seats was LQFUHDVHG�IURP�HOHYHQ�WR�ÀIWHHQ��1RQHWKH-less, Africa and the entire Islamic world remain ostracized. Though objectively it is apparent 816&�UHIRUP�LV�HVVHQWLDO��WKH�SROLWLFV�DQG�mutual backstabbing that tends to domi-QDWH�3��GHFLVLRQ�PDNLQJ�VLPLODUO\�PDNHV�the nature of potential reform highly con-tentious. Furthermore, it is not totally FOHDU�ZKDW�LV�DQG�LVQ·W�SROLWLFDOO\�WHQDEOH��Of course, there have been prior attempts DW�UHIRUP��,Q��D�0DOD\VLDQ�GLSORPDW�LQWURGXFHG�D�SODQ�WKDW�ZRQ�VLJQLÀFDQW�VXS-port but ultimately succumbed to political divisions in the General Assembly. The most recent and highly publicised attempt FDPH� LQ��ZKHQ� WKHQ�6HFUHWDU\�*HQ-HUDO�.RÀ�$QQDQ�GUDIWHG�VHYHUDO�SODXVLEOH�UHIRUP�SDFNDJHV�HQGRUVLQJ�WKH�&RXQFLO·V�H[SDQVLRQ� IURP� ÀIWHHQ� WR� WZHQW\�IRXU�members. Again, however, idealism suc-cumbed to the politics of the General As-sembly. � � � �)XUWKHU�FRPSOLFDWLQJ�PDWWHUV�� WKH�3��while vocal in their support of the ascen-sion of such countries as Germany to the

permanent ranks of the Security Council, fear reform would dilute their power; the process would require considerable sacri-ÀFH�RQ� WKH�SDUW� RI� WKH� FXUUHQW�SHUPDQHQW�members who jealously guard their all-powerful vetoes. That said, reform does not necessarily require the addition of veto-wielding states nor the complete re-vocation of such a principle. Crucial is the distinction between permanent member-ship and the acquisition the veto. Meanwhile, the four leading aspirants for permanent seats (Brazil, Germany, In-dia, and Japan—collectively known was WKH� *�� DUH� YLHZHG� ZLWK� DQ� XQGHUVWDQG-able aura of suspicion by the General As-VHPEO\��ZKR� DUJXH� WKDW� WKH�*�� IDU� IURP�altruistic coalition, simply seeks to expand &RXQFLO·V� ROLJDUFKLF� VWUXFWXUH� UDWKHU� WKDQ�fundamentally alter it. Africa represents another quandary. It is no secret that post-colonial countries have long resented the power of countries with WKH�816&�YHWR�WKDW�UHÁHFWV�WKH�SRVW�6HF-ond World War era balance of power, but ZKR�H[DFWO\�ZRXOG�ÀOO�D�SRWHQWLDO�SHUPD-nent opening on the Security Council? The $IULFDQ� 8QLRQ� KDV� GRQH� OLWWOH� WR� UHFWLI\�the situation. Senegal has expressed inter-est and pending the support of France, but would automatically be vetoed by China for its recognition of Taiwan. That leaves regional powers Nigeria and South Africa. The size of its economy and strong rela-WLRQVKLS�ZLWK�WKH�*��PDNH�6RXWK�$IULFD�D�strong frontrunner, but it still faces infre-quent instances of domestic instability. Micro-level African diplomatic struggles, LQ�HIIHFW��UHÁHFW�D�PXFK�ODUJHU�URDGEORFN��reforming the Security Council and corre-VSRQGLQJO\�DPHQGLQJ� WKH�81�&KDUWHU� UH-

quires the agreement of at least two-thirds of member states in the General Assembly DQG�DOO�ÀYH�SHUPDQHQW�PHPEHUV�RI�WKH�6H-curity Council. The issue of veto power DVLGH��WKH�816&�FRXOG�SRWHQWLDOO\�EH�H[-panded to include permanent members Japan, Germany, India, Brazil, and South Africa, but Argentina would not accept Brazil, Pakistan would almost certainly reject India, and Nigeria would not accept South Africa. It would seem that many members ostensibly agree reform is neces-sary, but disagree as to the nature of such reform, preferring the Council they know to a reformed Council they do not. Nevertheless, one simple but dramatic VWHS� 81� PHPEHUV� VHHNLQJ� UHIRUP� FRXOG�take: stop tacitly endorsing the Secu-ULW\�&RXQFLO·V� FXUUHQW� VWUXFWXUH�E\�YRWLQJ�each year to elect new non-permanent PHPEHUV�� 5HIXVLQJ� WR� HQJDJH� LQ� WKH� DQ-QXDO�816&�HOHFWLRQ�SURFHVV�XQWLO� WKH� UH-alisation of genuine discussion of reform would be a modest and proportional act of GLVREHGLHQFH��7KHUH�ZRXOG�EH�D�VLJQLÀFDQW�collective action problem, of course, and there would have to be a well-coordinated agreement to abstain. With a large bloc of states withholding votes and assuming a workable solution could be found to the is-VXH�RI�UHJLRQDO�ULYDOU\��D�ELJ�DVVXPSWLRQ��however, no new members could be elect-ed and the Security Council could face an institutional crisis. Weak though they may be, there are precedents for such a change: &KLQD�UHSODFHG�7DLZDQ�LQ��DQG�5XV-VLD� UHSODFHG� WKH� GHIXQFW� 6RYLHW�8QLRQ� LQ��RQ�WKH�6HFXULW\�&RXQFLO�� Nonetheless, it is relatively uncontro-YHUVLDO� WKDW� DQ\� H[SDQVLRQ� RI� WKH� 816&�should increase representativeness of the &RXQFLO��FUHGLELOLW\�DQG�OHJLWLPDF\��ZKLOH�simultaneously ensuring its effectiveness. The lack of representation is augmented by a lack of transparency, a topic of par-WLFXODU� FRQWURYHUV\� DW� WKLV� \HDU·V�*HQHUDO�Assembly high-level meetings. Though DSRORJLVWV� UHWURVSHFWLYHO\�DUJXH� WKH�3�� LV�perhaps a necessary evil, assuring con-tinued dialogue between the great pow-ers, in the short-term the Security Council should expand its permanent membership WR�EH�PRUH� LQFOXVLYH�DQG�UHÁHFWLYH�RI� WR-GD\·V�JHRSROLWLFDO�UHDOLWLHV��6XFK�PHDVXUHV�ZRXOG�DOVR�HQKDQFH�WKH�LQVWLWXWLRQ·V�OHJLWL-macy. Even if a Security Council reformed for the better were possible, however, it is QRWHZRUWK\� WR�DGG� WKDW� WKH�81� LV�PHUHO\�a pseudo-state actor with limited person-ality; with the exception of the Secretary General, it is still dependent on the co-operation and good will of the sovereign state system.


Asia .

Foxconn has been the portal access for critics to review China’s producing power and how the new powerhouse of global economy is keeping its vast labor force happy – although categorically improving workers’ condition and human rights prac-tices are not necessarily on the agenda of neither the observer nor the perpetrator. After breaking the siege of the suicide scan-dals, the assembler of Apple products re-ported a 16% net growth in profit of 2012. In the same year, China’s GDP growth reached 7.8%. How is China influenced by the Foxconn story when “reshoring”, aging labor force and other challenges are endan-gering the future of the “world’s factory”? Before 2010, the “Reshoring Initiative”, a private project to empower US-based manufacture, was laughed at both because outsourcing dominated the mainstream of global production, and that in the midst of an economic downturn it was considered commonsense to move manufacture to developing countries. However, in a short 3 years, leaders of manufacturing indus-tries have begun to think the other way. In May 2013, a YouGov survey indicated that a third of Britain’s makers want to source more components from UK companies; In September, a Boston Consulting Group’s survey found a similar percentage of large US manufacturers, including Apple, Google, General Motor, who were mov-ing part of their production back to north America. The current of exploring produc-tion in home country is also confirmed by a rapid decrease in China’s annual GDP growth. Some suggest that the new tech-nologies emerged and matured in the past 2 years, such as new precision-robotics and 3D printer, provided foundation for such shift. Company executives also want to move their commodities quicker to retail and to ensure the quality of production. Others found that the rapid wage inflation means China’s low-cost comparative ad-vantage is ebbing, and that consumers in their home country start to feel willing to pay more for “home-made” products. However, neither Terry Guo, CEO of Foxconn, nor the politburo in Beijing need to be overly worried. The current Foxconn portfolio includes such electronic giants as Apple Inc, Amazon.com, Cisco, Intel, IBM, Lenovo, Microsoft, Nokia, Sony Ericsson etc. Apple, whose reliance on mass labor in the streamline cannot be understated, only occupies 40% of Foxcconn’s producing

power. With the support of local govern-ment and, sometimes, schools and uni-versities, Foxcconn can temporarily bump up its capacity by at least 10% in matter of days. When talking about “global produc-tion”, size and ability matter. Meanwhile, “reshoring” would take too much time and money to re-model production plans in labor-expensive North America and in Europe. And at the moment, replacing the versatile human hands is either too expen-sive or not yet possible. New technology is not exclusive to the west. Foxconn’s embracive attitude to new technology and pragmatic approach to improving current machinery meant that it could bring visions of the Silicon Val-

ley to reality on massive scale. This helps to demonstrate their strength to its Japa-nese and Finish clients. What they lose in production for Apple quickly made up by new demands from Sony and Nokia. The company executives also made a monu-mental move in 2012 to acquire 10% stake of Sharp Corporation in Japan and 50% of its LCD production. It’s focus and effort on innovation also what made Amazon’s Kindle possible. China is learning from it. Meanwhile, in the National Laboratory for Aeronautics and Astronautics at Bei-hang University, China’s largest 3D printer is operating to create metallic components for its ambitious space-programs and technologically demanding commercial-

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Does China’s future lie with higher-value products?


aircraft project. The President, Xi Jinping, is determined to transform its economy with the newfound confidence in innova-tion and the inward circulation of technol-ogy and consumption. Since taking office in early 2013, he and Li Ke Qiang, China’s premier, took more foreign trips than the previous administrative team combined. The patterns of visit also shifted as the BRIC countries and new market econo-mies were being prioritized. Subsequently, there are more large ports for shipment as well as flights to Latin America and to In-dia. On board these flights, entrepreneurs and manufacture executives are coming to China to investigate it’s still vast production force. Indeed, China cannot yet compete with US or Europe in terms of innovation, but maintaining competitiveness among smaller economies requires less technol-ogy breakthrough. How much have Indian and Brazil outsourced to China cannot be overlooked while making the speech about “reshoring”. The real problem, rather, seem to lie with China’s labor force itself – as it is, and will continue to be the basis for its economic model and unlikely to change until it catch-es up on innovation. Today, almost all demographic stud-ies arrive at the conclusion that the aging population will have a negative impact on the quantity and quality of labor supply in China. The reduced quantity is highly like-ly to impact measurement of human capi-tal, labor productivity, industrial structure and potentially slow down the process of productivity enhancement. In real terms, this means an 11% reduction in labor force by 2050. Yet the decade after will still have more people retiring than youngsters en-tering the workforce. There is no denial of the real impact from the rapidly chang-ing demographic landscape, but would this mean the end of “world’s factory” for China? Chinese economists and politicians were set to find a smooth landing for the new generation. For Foxconn, 15 suicides in 2010 brought in dozens of labor regulations and free seminars on labor laws for its employ-ees. It pushed Foxxconn to expand beyond Shen Zhen, the first base for Foxxconn in Mainland China and Deng’s experiment ground for his monumental economic ref-ormation. Today, there are more than 30 cities in China has at least one Foxxconn factory. Its Zheng Zhou site in Henan prov-ince gathered more than 600,000 workers in just 2 years. Shen Zhen exemplified a lot of the concerns from changing demog-raphy: since the 1980s, the vast number of migrant worker was effectively the pillar

of its success. While the first generation migrants are aging, the second generation (since early 1990s) settled and brought their pension-age parents to the city. The city is estimated to have over 300,000 peo-ple over the age of 65, and 760,000 before 2020. With an inflating property market and an influx of mass manufacturing compa-nies, the available workforce started to shrink. Naturally, factories like Foxxconn felt limited. Its sudden but decisive move to explore labor markets further in land is supported by the raising level of educa-tion across the country and the benefit of building new factory in order to accom-modate new technology. This is perhaps when China’s new mod-el coincides with Foxxconn’s desire for a securer labor base in the country. China is compensating a smaller workforce with improvement in the quality of human capital, higher level of skills and higher work intensity. First, study shows the av-erage length of education for new working age population between 2000 and 2010 is 10.3 years. The elderly population who left workforce in the same period only re-ceived 4.4 years of education. The Chinese education system, largely exam-based and

highly intensive, is excellent for producing skilled labors. Consequently, the country could navigate better in the age when oper-ating electronics and machinery outweighs low-skill jobs. Foxconn, for instance, is fa-mous for its taste in enlisting school and university students in the months leading to Apple’s new product launch. “Education is the future” is less of a slogan when even the manufacture-based employers favor applicants with more qualified training. Lastly, the changes in the scale of labor supply not always mean decrease in real la-bor quality. The adaption of new technol-ogy and machinery usually means increase in productivity for each worker. The prob-lem is less with the fact that China’s labor market is aging, but rather when will the aging labor force becomes so substantial that not even new production technology could make up the lost. On the other hand, the uncontroversial conclusion would be that the young and more educated genera-tion can and will need better wage, work-ing environment and social security. Soon, large-scale global manufacturers will be forced to make a decision. China is still the best region to place labor-intensive as well as technologically demanding pro-duction, and the workers are at a better

Asia .


Asia .

Central Asia, usually defined as the family of the ‘Five Stans’, has re-cently returned to the geo-political spotlight after President Xi Jinping’s ten-day trip across the region. Apart from being a show of Chinese influ-ence in the region, this reflects a wider trend of renewed American, Russian, and Chinese interest in Central Asia, and could potentially make the region the ‘grand chess-board’ that Zbigniew Brzezinski envisioned following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The region is undoubtedly volatile for reasons that will be discussed later. We should be wary, however, of interpreting volatility as a pro-pensity towards conflict; as such a situation can also offer equal oppor-tunities for co-operation. We should also avoid drawing false historical parallels with the imperial ‘great game’. A competition of influences will occur, however. Central Asian countries won’t be mere pawns on the chessboard but key players as well , especially in the post 9/11 world. It is important to ask not only why Central Asia would be the next ‘frontier’, but also what kind of game will be played there.

Put simply, Russia, China, and the US all have interests, or rather, concerns that they cannot ignore in Central Asia. For China, security in Central Asia directly affects Xinjiang, an autonomous region on her West-ern frontier. Xinjiang is culturally closer to Central Asia than it is to Beijing, and it remains a base for Uighur (Xinjiang natives) indepen-dence movements. While the PRC has maintained that Xinjiang is an inseparable part of the ‘unitary multi-ethnic Chinese nation’, such movements have been a perennial concern for Beijing, as recent un-rests in 2013 and earlier in 2009 would suggest. A direct connec-tion with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) was established in 2011 when the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), the or-ganisation alleged to be responsible for unrests in Xinjiang, merged with the IMU. After the 9/11 at-tacks, China was quick to push for both organisations to be classified as terrorist organisations. Russia faces a similar problem in that Islamic extremism could potentially spill over into Chech-nya. After 9/11, Russia allowed the stationing of US troops in the re-gion, and, although it was hailed as a hallmark of Russo-American cooperation at the time, it soon be-came a source of tensions and the US is gradually being forced out of the region, first in Uzbekistan in 2005 and then in Kyrgyzstan in late 2013. The US became directly involved in the region after 9/11, and the im-minent pull out from Afghanistan produced worries that the region would become destabilised again, as all five Central Asian Republics feared ‘a redoubled onslaught of ex-tremists (IMU and other al-Qaeda linked groups) coming across their borders from Afghanistan’. Indeed,

the foreign ministers of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan warned of threats of ‘extremism emanating out of Af-ghanistan after 2014’. A destabilised Central Asia, due to an unfinished job in Afghanistan, would add an-other blemish to the already precar-ious ‘War on Terror’, and remains a concern of Moscow’s policy in the region. Despite this, American ex-posure in the region remains low, as no US President has ever travelled to Central Asia, in contrast to a se-ries of visits by Li Peng, Jiang Ze-min, and Hu Jintao. Central Asia is also one of the most energy-rich regions in the world. According to the Central Asia Atlas of Natural Resources, the re-gion has vast reserves of hydrocar-

The Scramble for AsiaRaymond Wang

bons, especially natural gas. Given its strategic location between Asia and Europe, it has enormous ex-port potential, especially to rapidly developing Asia-Pacific and South Asian countries. The region is rich in uranium as well— Kazakhstan accounted for 36.5% of the world’s uranium production in 2012. As such, the region is of interest to all three actors. Firstly, the US is seeking to diversify its energy sup-plies through non-Russian energy transit routes for Central Asian oil and gas. Secondly, Russia’s Gaz-prom maintains major pipelines throughout Central Asia, and last-ly, China’s CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) is tipped to replace Gazprom as the region’s ‘main outside gas source’ Such a web of vested interests can result in a stable balancing act,

place to demand for more: they must either absorb the rising cost or pass the burden to the consumers. Meanwhile, China can seem invincible. In 2010 it overtook Amer-ica in terms of manufactured output, ener-gy use and car sales. Contrary to the better judgement of Timothy Beardson, author of Stumbling Giant: The Threats to China’s Future, the world is still expecting it to be the largest economy soon. To maintain the likelihood, China should focus on increase the quality of human capital and produc-tivity, as well as paying real attention to the social welfare of it’s shrinking labor force. In the next decade, it should be able to see where the demographic change hurts the most. Keep the workers happy and help the engineers to create should be China’s new model, likewise for Foxconn.

“Islamic extremism could po-tentially spill over ... After 9/11, Russia allowed the stationing of US troops in the region, and, although it was hailed as a hall-mark of Russo-American coop-

eration at the time ”


Asia .

however an unstable domestic envi-ronment catalysed by the imminent US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and long-standing disputes over territories such as the Fergana Val-ley, might throw off this balance. The main actors appear to appre-ciate this and are hedging against instability through organisations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which in-cludes the Five Stans, Russia, and China. Initially founded to settle border disputes and ensure stabil-ity in the region, it has developed over time to include security, eco-nomic, and even educational co-operation, with China as the leader of the group. The construction of international terrorism as a global threat consolidated co-operation, illustrated by SCO performing joint anti-terrorist military exercises. Nevertheless there are destabilis-ing factors lingering on the hori-zon. Ironically, most of these are at-tempts at integrating the region. Xi has talked of a ‘Silk Road economic belt’ and the SCO maximising Bei-jing’s economic access to the region. Likewise, the US’s proposed ‘New Silk Road’ would open intra-region

(including Afghanistan) trade, while Russia is pushing for an Eur-asian Union modelled on the EU by 2015. Such overlapping institu-tions can cause tensions, especially when combined with insensitivity towards local conditions. Economically, the region remains one of the world’s least integrated regions, and there exists a large de-velopment disparity across states. It must be asked whether or not it makes sense to treat the region as one economic entity. More importantly, overlooking the differences between national identities would turn attempts at fostering cooperation into poten-tial flashpoints. For example, Tajik-istan and Uzbekistan are ‘engaged in an undeclared cold war’ over water resource allocation. With such underlying political and eth-nic tensions in the background, the push for democracy might lead to instability, as was the case in Kyr-gyzstan. Russia’s attempts at con-structing a Eurasian identity might also generate a pushback that could snowball into open conflict. Amidst all these competing forc-es, China is currently the middle-

man amongst the Central Asian countries, since she doesn’t bind them to restrictive trade policies like Russia or influence their do-mestic policy like the US. This ‘no-strings attached’ approach enables China to be a stabilising force. Whether or not this lasts, however, might be contingent upon the US pivot into the Asia-Pacific. One of the reasons for China’s ‘turn to the west’ was the US pivot, which encouraged China to re-duce dependence on sea-lanes in the Asia-Pacific. It is plausible to assume that this issue is still exists in the minds of Chinese decision makers. Therefore, a more assertive US pivot might result in a more assertive China in Central Asia, which will result in the loss of her position as the viable middleman. Such a shift would make future ten-sions more likely to develop into opportunities for conflict rather than co-operation. At the moment, the ‘game’ can go both ways. What we can be sure of is that Central Asia will become a contested region in the future. Brzezinski’s prediction might yet come true, even if it’s decades late

The hunter or the prey? Central Asia solicits investorsImage courtesy of Dave Stamboulis ©2012

foreign affairs review winter issue, 2013. syria edition

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