United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series December 2013

Ending stocks in 2013/14 are forecast to continue rising in producing countries, particularly Brazil and Vietnam, while consuming countries remain relatively flat. Global stocks have been rising over the last several years as world production outpaces consumption. Global production is now forecast at 150.5 million bags, down 2.8 million from the previous year as Vietnam’s record output is more than offset by declines in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Central America. A modest increase in world exports is expected on strong shipments from Vietnam and Colombia.

Coffee: World Markets and Trade

Stocks in Producing Countries to Continue Rising

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10

20

30

40

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Mill

ion

60 K

ilogr

am B

ags

Consuming Countries Producing Countries

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________ Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

Revised 2012/13 World production is revised up from the June estimate by 2.6 million bags to 153.3 million.

• Vietnam is up 1.6 million bags to 26.5 million on higher-than-anticipated yield. • Colombia is raised 900,000 bags to 9.9 million on unexpected strong deliveries in the second half

of the season, the highest percent of the yearly total in nearly 40 years. Weak deliveries in the first half were similar in volume to previous seasons plagued by coffee cherry borer and rust.

World ending stocks are raised 3.5 million bags to 33.8 million. • Vietnam is revised up 1.1 million bags to 2.0 million on larger available supplies. • European Union is raised 500,000 bags to 11.2 million on lower-than anticipated consumption. • Brazil is 340,000 bags higher to 7.1 million bags, offsetting lower exports. • Colombia is raised 320,000 bags to 750,000 due to increased supplies.

For additional information, please contact Tony Halstead at 202-720-4620, or Tony.Halstead@fas.usda.gov

December 2013

mailto:Tony.Halstead@fas.usda.gov

Table 01 Coffee World Production, Supply and Distribution

Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags

Beginning

Stocks

Arabica

Production

Robusta

Production

Production Imports Total Supply Exports Domestic

Consumption

Ending

Stocks

Total

Distribution

Exportable

Production

Coffee, Green

62,283107,61625,52319,96362,130107,61665381,90619,20762,30225,057 1979/80

66,007112,37230,97920,43860,955112,37267586,17422,58463,15425,523 1980/81

77,771129,75743,84220,55665,359129,75775598,02322,39675,13230,979 1981/82

61,916126,47940,19920,22166,059126,47973381,90422,19659,25843,842 1982/83

68,490129,60640,83820,57768,191129,60660688,80117,90570,45940,199 1983/84

68,591131,65637,36621,96872,322131,65645690,36224,59165,30240,838 1984/85

74,777133,51341,81521,22070,478133,51339795,75023,99871,29937,366 1985/86

58,416121,47133,28721,20266,982121,47126279,39426,12152,81241,815 1986/87

82,310136,75348,17421,07567,504136,753296103,17023,81078,98533,287 1987/88

73,168142,75450,19321,19071,371142,75441594,16528,90164,93448,174 1988/89

76,157147,40943,01220,99583,402147,40925896,95827,54269,11850,193 1989/90

78,131143,52445,09622,26576,163143,524331100,18127,76872,14343,012 1990/91

81,950149,45146,29822,26680,887149,451291104,06429,80973,98045,096 1991/92

71,722139,97040,52221,57977,869139,97071392,95927,45565,23446,298 1992/93

69,764133,51334,30122,92876,284133,51358592,40627,14665,05240,522 1993/94

74,978132,41341,21522,52668,672132,4131,07097,04228,03368,80934,301 1994/95

65,393131,24033,08824,04974,103131,2401,07988,94627,37261,39441,215 1995/96

79,780137,96529,09524,36184,509137,9651,091103,78637,23666,45233,088 1996/97

72,986128,00224,88325,18077,939128,0021,22097,68732,94064,71229,095 1997/98

83,533135,27124,40025,73885,133135,2711,435108,95334,06074,85924,883 1998/99

88,735139,86720,81525,58893,464139,8671,303114,16440,85373,28124,400 1999/00

91,069139,52022,37026,30390,847139,5201,488117,21746,82070,36220,815 2000/01

84,385141,01925,23727,49088,292141,0197,024111,62543,29768,29822,370 2001/02

99,628254,40147,628112,83793,936254,40187,981126,96841,85585,08539,452 2002/03

81,111246,26339,780116,31290,171246,26387,739110,89644,19766,67447,628 2003/04

90,673251,05441,429115,82793,798251,05489,683121,59143,66877,89839,780 2004/05

86,020250,35133,036123,66393,652250,35191,323117,59947,01170,56341,429 2005/06

101,795263,88236,112123,076104,694263,88297,228133,61849,90383,69033,036 2006/07

90,992257,56831,705127,77998,084257,56897,508123,94849,58074,36836,112 2007/08

102,013265,41039,849124,674100,887265,41097,466136,23951,08785,15231,705 2008/09

93,130269,05728,943137,247102,867269,057100,667128,54152,01576,52639,849 2009/10

103,791275,81028,593133,798113,419275,810106,420140,44753,34187,10628,943 2010/11

104,994281,66625,589141,590114,487281,666109,033144,04060,48583,55528,593 2011/12

113,596292,09633,789142,212116,095292,096113,239153,26863,37589,89325,589 2012/13

110,032297,49236,330144,423116,739297,492113,238150,46563,80586,66033,789 2013/14

Prior to 2002/03, the database does not include import, consumption or stocks data for non-producing countries such as the

United States, EU-27 and Japan.

December 2013