forest damage in a changing climate anna maria jönsson and lars bärring dept. of physical...
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Forest damage in a changing climate
Anna Maria Jönsson and Lars BärringDept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis
Geobiosphere Science Centre, Lund University
Predisposing factors Climate change, Tree species and ProvenancesForest management, Nutrient availability, Air pollution
Triggering factors Weather events exceeding tree acclimatization capacityOften causing visible damage
Contributing factors Attacks by pests and pathogensOften the cause of mortality
Forest damage in a changing climate
Extreme weather event ≠ Extreme situation for the tree
Acclimatization
The ability to adjust to changing weather conditionsTolerate non-optimal conditionsThreshold values could be more important than extreme values
Affected by ExampleSeasonality Spring backlashesIntensity FloodingDuration Dry spellsFrequency Wind stormsCombination Spring frost followed by drought
Tree nutrient availability decomposition, weathering, mycorrhiza, leakage
Climate changetemperaturedry spells during summerflooding episodesstorm frequency
Tree damagefrost damagedrought stressroot oxygen deficiencywind throw, root damage
CO2 Pests and Pathogens
Photosynthesis: growth - repair - defence - respiration NPP+10-20%
Ongoing activities within ENSEMBLESrelated to task 6.2.2, 6.2.3, 6.2.5 and 6.2.10
1) Spring backlash index: Frost damage projections
SBI has been calculated for Sweden, is currently applied to European conditions
using the PRUDENCE dataset, and will use ENSEMBLES RCM data.
A Frost hardiness and damage sub-module is incorporated to the vegetation
model LPJ-GUESS.
2) Modelling the temperature dependent development of the
spruce bark beetle Ips typographus
The model has been applied to south Swedish conditions, and will be applied for
Northern European spruce forests using ENSEMBLES RCM data.
Start of dehardening in Norway spruce 5 consecutive days with a mean temperature above 5°C
1961-1990
Scenario B2
Scenario A2
1 2 3 4 5 month
Climate data: HadRM3
Frost events after the start of dehardening over 30-years
Control period Scenario B2 - Control Scenario A2 - Control
0 100 200
Number of events -75 0 75
Difference
Temperature dependent annual cycle of Ips typographus
Spring swarming
Egg development Summer swarming?
Winter mortalityAlmost 100% for not completely
developed bark beetles
Egg development?
>
April May June July August September
1961-1990
Scenario B2
Scenario A2
Spring swarm Completed development
Development of Ips typographus in Växjö
Temperature dependent summer swarming of Ips typographus
1961-1990 1981-2010 2011-2040
2041-2070 2071-2100
Data from RCA3Scenario A2